The residential transformation of St Kilda Road is set to continue into with more new apartment plans for the sought-after boulevard.

Wing Tai Asia has lodged plans for a major residential tower at 464-466 St Kilda Road, replacing the former VACC House with an 18-storey mixed-use development designed around a retained heritage podium and a sculpted contemporary tower.

The proposal, prepared under Victoria’s Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway, would deliver 325 apartments and ground-floor retail across the prominent 4,653 sqm boulevard site in Melbourne’s St Kilda Road North Precinct.

The project centres on the adaptive reuse of the site’s heritage-listed VACC Building, an eight-storey office designed by Bernard Evans that has occupied the address for decades. Planning documents state the development would involve “carefully dismantling and conserving off-site the original metal fabric of the podium visible from St Kilda Road,” before reinstating it as the defining frontage of the new scheme.

Above the restored podium, Wing Tai is proposing a curvilinear residential tower. The scheme includes 172 one-bedroom apartments, 63 two-bedroom apartments, 66 three-bedroom apartments, and 24 four-bedroom apartments, alongside two ground-floor food and beverage tenancies fronting St Kilda Road.

The tower has been designed with substantial articulation and variable setbacks to minimise perceived bulk and maintain view corridors along the boulevard. Urbis, which prepared the planning report, said the design “has been significantly articulated through a curvilinear design” with “an interplay with materials, façade expression and depth” to create visual separation and visual interest.

The proposal also includes 254 basement car spaces, landscaped pedestrian links connecting St Kilda Road and Queens Lane, and a biophilic landscape strategy featuring canopy trees, raised planters, cascading greenery and a glass oculus pool overlooking the eastern frontage.

Planning documents confirm the $270.1 million development will contribute 3 per cent of project costs to the Social Housing Growth Fund as part of the application process.

Wing Tai acquired the St Kilda Road property in 2018 alongside Abacus Property Group for $95.38 million, before later consolidating ownership of the site. The property previously served as the Victorian Automobile Chamber of Commerce headquarters for around 60 years.

The transformation of the St Kilda Rd boulevard is already beginning to materialise, with a number of high-profile projects recently completed, launched, or approaching launch as developers continue to back the long-term appeal of the precinct.

Among the most notable recent completions is Louise by Samuel Property Group, just off the strip on Queens Lane, the same pocket Hirsch &amp; Faigen recently launched The Queensbury. Mirvac is too on the same street with The Albertine, which is approaching completion.

Dexus recently secured approval for its slice of St Kilda Road, while Gurner also has approved plans for the precinct.

Joel Robinson

Wing Tai unveils 325-apartment St Kilda Road tower on former VACC House site

Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.

The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.

The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.

The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" />

SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.

“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.

The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.

“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" />

The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.

Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.

The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.

COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" />

“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.

The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.

The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.

Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a>

First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.

The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.

The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.

SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”

The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" />

The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.

A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.

Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" />

The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.

Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.

The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.

First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;

Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;

The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;

The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;

Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;

Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;

“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;

“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."

Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;

"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;

Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

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The arrival of the first piling rig officially marks the commencement of construction at SIERA’s new beachside apartment development, Exhale, in Northcliffe.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/exhale-surfers-paradise-8-enderley-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Exhale</a>, a glass-encased tower featuring 54 large-scale apartments at 8 Enderley Avenue, is SIERA’s third Gold Coast development. It follows the recently completed PIPIS Bilinga beachfront project, which achieved suburb-record prices, and the soon-to-be-completed Chevron Island development, Tapestry.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359603]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/siera">SIERA</a> Founder and Managing Director Brent Thompson said the arrival of the piling rig represented a significant milestone for the development, which is scheduled for completion in late 2028.

Over the next month, around 260 piles are expected to be installed as work progresses on the basement structure. The building is anticipated to rise above ground level early next year, before unveiling its sculptural glass curtain wall, developed in collaboration with specialist façade engineers.

“The façade was designed to maximise panoramic coastal views while creating a distinctive architectural identity,” Thompson said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=355935]

Designed by BDA Architecture, Exhale will comprise just 54 two- and three-bedroom residences across 26 levels, a level of low-density living rarely delivered in this beachside pocket between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach.

The project has been conceived as a resident-only building, with no short-stay accommodation permitted. SIERA says the model is intended to appeal to long-term owner-occupiers rather than transient holiday demand.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=361052]

Residences have been designed with large-format layouts and expansive glazing, with most apartments featuring more than 30 metres of glass frontage to maximise natural light and ocean views.

The amenity offering spans two levels and centres on wellness and lifestyle, including a heated magnesium pool, sauna, yoga and Pilates studio, gymnasium, private dining facilities, cinema lounge, and dedicated surfcraft storage.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359607]

More than half of the apartments have already sold. SIERA has also opened a sales gallery for Exhale at its Chevron Island commercial premises, near its Tapestry tower and the site of its second Chevron Island apartment development, which is slated to launch in early 2027.
</section>
</section>

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112661]

SIERA kicks off construction at Northcliffe tower Exhale

Cameron Kusher

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With recent record high levels of new housing construction and investor mortgage activity, the supply of housing stock available for rent is climbing and is expected to continue to increase.
Australia has a growing population and the people moving to Australia need to be housed somewhere.  
Over recent years the uplift in population growth has not been met with a commensurate rise in property sales. Rental advertisement counts suggest that the population growth is increasingly being housed via investment housing (rental accommodation) which aligns with the lift in investor housing finance commitments over recent years.
Over the 12 months to January 2017, there were 362,708 houses advertised for rent and 287,233 units advertised for rent nationally. 
The number of rental advertisements over the past year was 8.7 percent higher for houses and 9.3 percent higher for units.  The rental market is currently seeing historic low rates of rental growth and with the amount of rental accommodation ramping up it is easy to see why.  Keep in mind this data is only those properties advertised for rent and not every rental property will be advertised for rent each year.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/14/2017-03-13--image1.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/14/2017-03-13--image1.png" width="571" height="187">
The two tables within this report highlight the council areas that have seen the greatest increases and decreases in rental advertisements over the past year.  Note that we have only included council areas that have had at least 1,000 rental advertisements over the 12 months to January 2017.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/14/2017-03-13--image2.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/14/2017-03-13--image2.png" width="561" height="508">
Western Australia council areas feature heavily on the list of regions that have seen the greatest increase in rental advertisements over the year, many of which are located in Perth.  Investor activity has been sluggish in WA so this may indicate that as the economy has weakened and people have migrated away from WA, perhaps home owners are looking to rent out their home rather than selling into weak market conditions. 
A number of NSW regions are also featured on the list and this is probably more reflective of the ramping-up of housing supply purchased by investors.
Of those regions with at least 1,000 rental advertisements over the past year, only 17 council areas have actually seen a decline in rental advertisements over the year.  Two of the improving housing markets for value growth, Canberra and Hobart, are amongst these 17 council areas. 
The areas with less rental stock advertised than a year ago also tend to be more slanted towards regional areas rather than capital cities.  
This is not surprising given that housing supply has largely been increasing in capital cities rather than regional markets.  Despite the housing construction boom in Sydney at the moment, Kogarah, Warringah and Manly have recorded fewer properties advertised this year compared to last year, signaling tighter rental conditions.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/14/2017-03-13--image3.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/14/2017-03-13--image3.png" width="564" height="506">
With a record high number of new dwellings still under construction, most of which are units and many of which have been purchased by investors, it is anticipated that the number of properties advertised for rent will continue to rise. 
The impact of this is that rental growth is likely to remain dampened and those in the rental market in most regions will have an increasing number of properties to choose from.  For owners of investment properties and property managers should be mindful of their local rental conditions, and set their weekly rents accordingly to maximize their occupancy as well as income. 
Landlords in areas where the supply of rental properties has shown a rise may find they need to hold their rents steady or in fact, provide a discount on their rental expectations in order to keep or attract tenants.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/" target="_blank">here</a>
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Rising rental listings signal ongoing softness across some rental markets: Cameron Kusher

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At the end of 2016, 7.6 percent of suburbs nationally had a median house value under $200,000 and 5.9 percent of suburbs had a median unit value below $200,000.
To put these figures into some perspective, 11.4 percent of suburbs had a median house value of at least $1 million and 3.0 percent of suburbs had a median unit value of at least $1 million.
Mr Kusher found that over the five years to the end of 2016, a substantial decline occurred in the proportion of suburbs with a median value below $400,000.
As a comparison, at the end of 2011, 53.5 percent of suburbs had a median house value of less than $400,000 and 69.8 percent of suburbs had a median unit value of less than $400,000. By the end of 2016, the proportion of suburbs with a median value of less than $400,000 fell to 41.0 percent for houses, and 55.3 percent for units.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-16%20at%2011.20.39%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-16%20at%2011.20.39%20am.jpg" alt=""> 
Looking back at the individual capital cities over the past five years highlights a significant shift in the proportion of suburbs with a median value under $400,000, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne.
Today’s analysis revealed that five years ago, with the exception of Darwin and Canberra, every capital city had at least 20 percent of its suburbs with a median house value of less than $400,000.
At the end of last year, it was virtually impossible to find houses for less than $400,000 in Sydney, Darwin and Canberra while less than 7% of suburbs had a median house value below $400,000 in Melbourne.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-16%20at%2011.20.46%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-16%20at%2011.20.46%20am.jpg" alt="">
We noted that across each city there has been a substantial decline in affordable housing over the past year despite the fact that outside of Sydney and Melbourne there has been only moderate value growth over the period.
Even units recorded a fairly substantial decline in the proportion of suburbs with a median value of less than $400,000 over the past five years.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-16%20at%2011.20.54%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-16%20at%2011.20.54%20am.jpg" alt="">
For those earning a relatively low income in Sydney and looking to buy a house or unit, they are competing for a rapidly declining pool of housing stock across the city.
The pool is also declining across the remaining capitals, albeit not at the same pace of decline as in Sydney.
Key Findings:
• At the end of 2016, looking at both houses and units, 20.5 percent of Sydney suburbs had a median value of less than $600,000 compared to 38.5 percent of suburbs having a median value of at least $1 million. To further highlight deteriorating housing affordability in Sydney, 34.6 percent of suburbs had a median unit value of less than $600,000 at the end of 2016. In each other capital city, a higher proportion of suburbs had a median house value of less than $600,000 than the proportion of suburbs with a median unit value of less than $600,000.
• In 2011, the proportion of total suburbs with a median house value below $400,000 across each capital city was: 21.2 percent in Sydney, 28.9 percent in Melbourne, 40.9 percent in Brisbane, 40.5 percent in Adelaide, 31.1 percent in Perth, 69.2 percent in Hobart, 2.1 percent in Darwin and 1.1 percent in Canberra.
• Units offered a more affordable option highlighted by the proportions of suburbs values below $400,000 at: 38.8 percent in Sydney, 48.2 percent in Melbourne, 81.7 percent in Brisbane, 94.3 percent in Adelaide, 59.8 percent in Perth, 92.7 percent in Hobart, 53.3 percent in Darwin and 44.6 percent in Canberra.
• The proportion of suburbs with a median house value of less than $400,000 at the end of 2016 was recorded at: 0.1 percent in Sydney, 6.3 percent in Melbourne, 29.2 percent in Brisbane, 28.0 percent in Adelaide, 18.9 percent in Perth, 52.1 percent in Hobart and 0.0 percent in Darwin and Canberra. For units the proportions were recorded at: 6.5 percent in Sydney, 31.8 percent in Melbourne, 62.7 percent in Brisbane, 85.1 percent in Adelaide, 46.4 percent in Perth, 88.4 percent in Hobart, 57.6 percent in Darwin and 45.8 percent in Canberra.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-16%20at%2011.21.01%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-16%20at%2011.21.01%20am.jpg" alt="">
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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The heightened decline in suburbs under the $400,000 median: Cameron Kusher

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New South Wales and Victoria now account for a historically high proportion of national mortgage demand which continues to drive dwelling values much higher across these two cities compared with other regions.
The current housing market growth phase has really been all about Sydney and Melbourne.
When you look at dwelling value growth, increases have been substantially higher in Sydney and Melbourne than in all other capital cities.
At the same time, demand for mortgages has surged across NSW and Vic (both of which are proxies for Sydney and Melbourne) while it has barely increased across the remaining states and territories.
The first chart highlights the change in capital city dwelling values over the current growth phase.
The growth phase broadly began in June 2012 and over the period, only Sydney and Melbourne have recorded value rises greater than 21%.
The rise in values has been supported by low interest rates and availability of mortgage finance however, other factors such as localised economic performance, population growth and foreign demand have driven the much stronger growth in Sydney and Melbourne than across the other capital cities.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/27/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-27%20at%206.53.06%20pm.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/27/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-27%20at%206.53.06%20pm.jpg" alt="">
Looking at mortgage finance across the states and territories, in December 2016 the value of mortgage lending across each state and territory was recorded at: $14.5 billion in NSW, $9.6 billion in Vic, $5.1 billion in Qld, $1.6 billion in SA, $2.7 billion in WA, $0.3 billion in Tas, $0.2 billion in NT and $0.7 billion in ACT.
Over the month, NSW (41.8%) and Vic (27.7%) accounted for a combined 69.5% of the value of all housing finance commitments which was an historic high.
In June 2012 when the current growth phase commenced, 33.6% of housing finance commitments were in NSW and 27.1% were in Vic.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/27/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-27%20at%206.53.19%20pm.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/27/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-27%20at%206.53.19%20pm.jpg" alt="">
The value of housing finance commitments for owner occupier housing in December 2016 across the states and territories were recorded at: $7.7 billion in NSW, $6.0 billion in Vic, $3.5 billion in Qld, $1.1 billion in SA, $2.0 billion in WA, $0.3 billion in Tas, $0.1 billion NT and $0.4 billion in ACT.
Since the current value growth phase commenced in June 2012, monthly mortgage lending to owner occupiers has increased from $4.3 billion in NSW and $3.9 billion in Vic.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/27/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-27%20at%206.53.29%20pm.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/27/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-27%20at%206.53.29%20pm.jpg" alt="">
In December 2016, the value of mortgage lending to investors across the states and territories was recorded at: $6.8 billion in NSW, $3.7 billion in Vic, $1.7 billion in Qld, $0.5 billion in SA, $0.7 billion in WA, $0.1 billion in Tas, $0.1 billion in NT and $0.2 billion in ACT.
More than three quarters (76.3%) of investor mortgage finance nationally in December 2016 was in NSW (49.6%) or Vic (26.7%).
While the proportion of lending to investors has previously been higher in each state, combined they make up the largest share on record.
At the beginning of the current growth phase, 37.3% of national investor finance commitments were in NSW and 25.1% was in NSW.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/27/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-27%20at%206.53.42%20pm.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/27/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-27%20at%206.53.42%20pm.jpg" alt="">
The data shows just how concentrated mortgage demand nationally is currently in NSW and Vic.
With the demand focused so much on those two states, it’s no wonder values in Sydney and Melbourne have increased so much more than in the other capital cities.
While steps have been made to cool mortgage demand, particularly from investors in Sydney and Melbourne, the data points to the fact that demand remains unquestionably strong.
With interest rates remaining at close to historic lows, it is clear that further changes will be required in order to slow mortgage demand and dampen the increases in dwelling values being experienced in Sydney and Melbourne.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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Mortgage demand has surged in New South Wales and Victoria: Cameron Kusher

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The latest internal migration data shows that an increasing number of inter-state and intra-state population movements are to either sea change/tree change regions or the outskirts of the capital cities.
Each year the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes data on internal migration across the regions of Australia.
Internal migration data counts the number of residents moving within the state as well as across state borders.
The tables provided within this report show the top and bottom 25 SA4 regions for net internal migration nationally over the 2015-16 financial year.
The first table shows that the Gold Coast saw the most net internal arrivals at 6,428 persons over the year. 
The data series dates back as far as 2006-07 and the net internal arrivals of 6,428 persons is the highest on record and 39.4% higher over the past year. 
It was also the first time since 2006-07 that the Gold Coast had seen the nation’s highest rate of net internal migration.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/05/Chart-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/05/Chart-1.jpg" alt="">
Of the top 25 regions for net internal migration over the past year, 13 were located outside of the capital cities; generally in areas either adjacent or close to capital cities. 
These regions were a mix of sea change and tree change type locations.  Interestingly, each of these regional markets has recorded an increase in net internal migration over the year.
The data supports the strong price rises being recorded across many of Australia’s coastal and hinterland regions, especially those within easy commuting distance of the major capital cities.
None of the 12 capital city regions on the top 25 list were inner city areas in which high rise unit development is at unprecedented levels and density is increasing. 
The capital city areas listed are slanted more towards an increase in greenfield development rather higher density new housing.
The second table shows the 25 regions nationally that have recorded the greatest losses from net internal migration over the 2015-16 financial year. 
Sydney’s Inner South West recorded the largest migration away from the area over the year, losing a net 8,747 residents. 
It was actually the 10th consecutive year that Inner South West has recorded the largest greatest loss from net internal migration.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/05/Chart-2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/05/Chart-2.jpg" alt="">
17 of the 25 regions listed in the second table were located in a capital city market.  The regions listed are generally established areas closer to the city centre. 
These areas are either seeing greater high density new housing development or very little new housing construction. 
The non-capital city markets are characterised as regional and linked to either agriculture or the mining and resources sector.
Looking at the broader capital city and regional markets, net internal migration over the year was strongest into: Regional NSW (11,827), Brisbane (10,149), Regional Vic (8,429) and Melbourne (8,270). 
The net losses from internal migration were greatest for: Sydney (-23,176), Adelaide (-6,088), Regional WA (-4,433) and Perth (-3,270).
Net internal migration to Regional NSW, Melbourne, Regional Vi and Brisbane was the greatest it has been in at least 10 years. 
Meanwhile, net internal migration to Sydney was the lowest since 2011-12 and it was the lowest in at least 10 years to Regional Qld, Adelaide, Perth and Regional WA.
Overall the data indicates that migration is gathering pace in select regions of the country, a number of which are sea change/tree change areas. 
On the other hand, Sydney is increasingly shedding residents to other parts of the country and this is most likely linked to the high cost of housing. 
Coastal, regional areas of NSW and Vic along with Melbourne and Brisbane appear to be significant benefactors of the deteriorating housing affordability in Sydney as an increasing number of people leave the city for more affordable locations.
Cameron Kusher is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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It looks as if sea change and tree change is gathering pace: Cameron Kusher

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The results of a recent household income and wealth survey conducted by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) are not necessarily what you’d expect according to CoreLogic research analyst Cameron Kusher.
He said, “The results state that higher income households are more likely to be over-indebted than lower income ones and determined those households that are over-indebted and those that are not.”
The 2015-16 household income and wealth survey results, which includes household debt and over-indebtedness considers a household to be over indebted if their debt is either three or more times their income, or 75% or more of the value of their assets.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-21%20at%2011.15.20%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-21%20at%2011.15.20%20am.jpg" alt="">
Mr Kusher said, “On these measures the ABS considers 21.6% of households to be over-indebted, 51.9% of households to be not over-indebted and 26.4% of households have no debt.”
According to the results, households with the lowest disposable income are the least likely to be over-indebted while the fourth quintile households are most likely to be over-indebted.
The end results, according to Mr Kusher, is that households with higher incomes are less likely to be debt free and are more likely to be over-indebted than lower income households.
He said, “Lower income households are more likely to be debt- free compared to higher income households which is reflective of many lower income households having paid off their debt.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-21%20at%2011.15.28%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-21%20at%2011.15.28%20am.jpg" alt="">
“The data shows that 94.6% of households which are either not over- indebted (37.8%) or without debt (56.8%) have no persons in the labour force which is reflective of retirees or people that are in a position to choose not to work.”
Households with mortgage debt are more likely to be over- indebted than those households that either rent or own their home outright; only 3.5% of households that own without a mortgage are considered to be over-indebted compared to 47.0% of household with a mortgage and 9.1% of rental households.
Lone person households are likely to be those persons who are living debt free (45.9%), while single family households with a couple and dependent children (10.7%) are the least likely to be living debt free.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-21%20at%2011.15.36%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-21%20at%2011.15.36%20am.jpg" alt="">
Interestingly, the data indicates that group households are among those least likely to be over-indebted (16.2%) as well as being amongst the least likely to be without debt (20.8%).
Mr Kusher said, “This probably reflects the fact that university students and young professionals are most likely to live in group households while studying and prior to purchasing their own home.”
The data also shows that households that are over-indebted spend 24.2% of all goods and services expenditure on housing costs compared to not over-indebted households spending 16.8% of their expenditure on housing costs.
The report shows that on average, over-indebted households spend more than double ($150.54) each week on their mortgage repayments than households which are not over-indebted ($73.44).
Mr Kusher said, “Households with no mortgage debt, most of which are retiree households, are least likely to be over- indebted.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-21%20at%2011.15.47%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-21%20at%2011.15.47%20am.jpg" alt="">
“On the other hand, higher income households with a family that have outstanding mortgage debt are those most likely to be over-indebted.”
“While you could say that families of working age with higher incomes are better able to service their debt, interest rate hikes or reductions in the value of their assets could have a significant impact on their ability to service their debt.”
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Almost three quarters of Australian households are indebted: Cameron Kusher

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Despite being in the midst of a nationwide dwellings construction boom over recent years, the total volume of housing stock increased by a lower proportion in Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and Hobart between 2011 and 2016 than they did between 2006 and 2011.
Over the five years between the Census collection periods, there has been a shift towards denser housing stock being added to the capital cities is evident.
Interestingly, while driving around inner city areas you would be led to believe that it is higher density units which have been most abundant in new supply, the data points to medium density supply having ramped up the most.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/06/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-06%20at%2011.35.36%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/07/06/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-06%20at%2011.35.36%20am.jpg" alt="">
In Sydney (17.9%), Melbourne (61.0%), Brisbane (29.6%), Adelaide (46.5%), Perth (49.4%) and Canberra (36.9%) it was medium density housing types which recorded the greatest increase in stock over the five years.
In each of these cities, except for Adelaide and Perth, separate house stock saw the smallest increase of the three housing types over the five years.”
Looking at the proportion of total housing stock by type based on the Census data, across each capital city, separate houses remain the dominant property type.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/06/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-06%20at%2011.35.46%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/07/06/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-06%20at%2011.35.46%20am.jpg" alt="">
However, given the previously presented data, the proportion of separate houses has fallen over recent Census periods.
The data indicates that in most capital cities, medium and high density housing remain a relatively small but increasing proportion of the overall housing mix.
Ten years ago in Sydney, 61.7% of housing stock was separate houses, and in the latest Census 55.7% of housing stock was separate houses.
If this trajectory continues by the 2026 Census less than half of Sydney’s housing stock will be separate houses.
With ongoing under investment in much needed infrastructure, there are significant lifestyle benefits associated with living closer to the city centre however, the supply of land in the areas closer to the city centre is limited.
This is leading to increasing levels of medium and higher density dwelling construction and premiums for detached housing located close to the city centres.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/06/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-06%20at%2011.35.57%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/07/06/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-06%20at%2011.35.57%20am.jpg" alt="">
Although approvals for these types of properties has slowed recently, it is anticipated that construction of medium and high density dwellings will remain elevated relative to historic levels.
I believe we’ll see the shift towards a greater proportion of capital city housing being medium and high density will continue over the coming years.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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The rise and rise of medium density housing: Cameron Kusher

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A budget of $400,000 for a property purchase in a capital city used to provide an array of options.
However, with dwelling values continuing to rise, new research by CoreLogic shows a significant reduction in the proportion of sales occurring in this price bracket. 
The research shows that across Australia, 31.2% of houses and 37.3% of units sold transacted for less than $400,000.
By comparison, a year ago the proportions were recorded at 32.8% for houses and 38.6% for units.
A decade ago, 62.4% of all house sales and 68.9% of unit sales were priced below $400,000.
Almost seventeen percent of all house sales and 28.4% of all unit sales over the 12 months to June 2017 were below $400,000.
Even comparing these figures to just a year earlier the decline in the proportion of sales under $400,000 is extremely noticeable for houses (19.0%) and somewhat less so for units (29.6%).
A decade ago, more than half of all capital city house (53.1%) and unit (66.3%) were less than $400,000.”
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-17%20at%2011.40.39%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-17%20at%2011.40.39%20am.jpg" alt="">
Outside of the capital cities, 52.0% of houses and 60.5% of units sold over the 12 months to June 2017 were priced below $400,000.
A year earlier the proportions were recorded at 54.3% for houses and 63.2% for units.
If we go back 10 years more than three quarters of regional house (75.6%) and unit (75.2%) sales were less than $400,000.
Over the past year, less than 3.5% of all house sales in Sydney and Canberra were below $400,000 compared to 35.5% and 40.0% respectively a decade ago.
In a market like Sydney, the unit market doesn’t represent much of an alternative with 7.4% of all unit sales over the past year below $400,000 compared to 53.9% a decade ago.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-17%20at%2011.40.49%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-17%20at%2011.40.49%20am.jpg" alt="">
Looking specifically at houses, a decade ago only Sydney (35.5%) and Canberra (40.0%) had fewer than 50% of sales below $400,000.
Compared that to the last 12 months, Hobart was the only capital city to have more than 50% (53.2%) of house sales below $400,000.
Today’s research shows a similar, but not quite as dramatic decline in the proportion of units selling under $400,000.
A decade ago, only Sydney (53.9%) and Perth (60.4%) had fewer than 70% of units selling for less than $400,000.
Over the past 12 months, only Adelaide (59.2%) and Hobart (78.3%) had greater than half of all unit sales below $400,000.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-17%20at%2011.41.02%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-17%20at%2011.41.02%20am.jpg" alt="">
As dwelling values continue to increase, we anticipate that over the next 12 months the proportion of properties selling for less than $400,000 will further reduce and in the way that the rising number of sales of properties for at least $1 million shows the deteriorating affordability, so too does the significant reduction in the availability of properties priced under $400,000.”
Although the Federal Government attempted to address housing affordability in the Budget this year, in order to improve housing affordability, clearly there is much more work to be done on both supply and demand drivers of the market.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-17%20at%2011.41.18%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-17%20at%2011.41.18%20am.jpg" alt="">
A greater supply of stock which could potentially reduce prices would at the very least be a good start however, the supply needs to be supported by sufficient infrastructure and employment opportunities.”
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Housing price barrier increases as under $400,000 housing supply dries up: Cameron Kusher

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
After many years of strong increases in dwelling values, the two largest housing markets, Sydney and Melbourne, have begun to see values fall over recent months.  While values are declining in both cities the speed of the declines vary greatly, both compared to one another and compared to other recent downturns in these housing markets.
<img src="https://corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/media_crop/public/2018-04/2018-04-23-blogim1.png" alt=""> 
Since values peaked back in July 2017, Sydney dwelling values have fallen by -3.9% over the following eight months.  If we look at the three previous downturns highlighted in the above chart, in the 2003-06 downturn values had fallen by -5.8% eight months in and went on to decline by -8.2% over 25 months before values started rising again.  In the 2008-09 downturn, values were -4.9% lower eight months in and went on to fall by -7.0% over 12 months.  The 2010-11 downturn saw values fall from their peak to their trough by -3.7% and after 8 months they had fallen by just -1.0%.
<img src="https://corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/media_crop/public/2018-04/2018-04-23-blogimg2.png" alt="">
 Dwelling values in Melbourne have not been falling as quickly or for as long as those in Sydney.  After the market peaked in November of last year, values have fallen by -0.7% over the four months to March 2018.  In 2003-04, values fell by a total of -3.0% over nine months and were -1.0% lower after four months of declines.  In 2008-09 values fell for 11 months, they had fallen by -3.9% over the first four months and ended up declining by -9.4%.  In the first four months of the 2010-12 period of value falls values were -2.2% lower before they ultimately fell by -8.4%.  Outside of these recent declines, values recorded a peak to trough fall of -8.3% between 1989 and 1992 with values falling by -2.5% over the first four months of this period.
Two other capital cities, Perth and Darwin, have been recording value falls for some time.  Although their declines are somewhat lengthier and different to recent falls in Sydney and Melbourne, it is valuable to analyse how these declines have evolved.
<img src="https://corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/media_crop/public/2018-04/2018-04-23-blogimg3.png" alt="">
Perth dwelling values increased in March 2018 however, over the period from June 2014 to February 2018 values fell by -11.0%.  There is no guarantee that these declines are over as yet although the pace of these declines has steadied recently.  It is also interesting to note that during the most recent period of value falls the declines began much more moderately on a month-to-month bases than they did in 2006-07, 2008-09 and 2010-11, with the downturn stretching on much longer than any of these previous downturns.  In 2006-07, values fell by -3.7% in five months, in 2008-09 values were -11.0% lower over 13 months and in 2010-11 values declined by -9.1% over 19 months.
<img src="https://corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/media_crop/public/2018-04/2018-04-23-blogimg4.png" alt="">
 Darwin has only seen two recent period of market downturn, between October 2010 and September 2011 and from May 2014 to February 2018 (values rose over March 2018).  Again, it should be noted although values have risen over the month it doesn’t necessarily mean the downturn is over.  Over the 11 month downturn in 2010 and 2011, Darwin dwelling values fell by -7.9%.  The more recent downturn saw value declines start slower than those in 2010-11 with the downturn stretching for much longer.  As at February 2017 Darwin dwelling values have fallen by -22.3% from its previous peak in May 2014.
While these charts are interesting to consider they don’t provide any particular guidance as to how deep or elongated the current downturns in Sydney and Melbourne may be.  The weak housing market conditions in Perth and Darwin were largely a symptom of weak economic and demographic conditions, while the current downturns in Sydney and Melbourne are occurring against reasonably strong economic and demographic conditions; the slowdown is primarily being influenced by tighter credit conditions.  
What is interesting is that comparing to Perth and Darwin shows that just because they have started falling slower than other housing market downturns doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t end up as a deeper and longer downturn.  Of course the reverse is true as well but it will be interesting to see how deep and how long these current downturns persist for in Sydney and Melbourne and whether they lead to downturns in other cities and regions too.
CAMERON KUSHER is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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Are all property downturns the same?

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
Dwelling values, particularly those in Sydney and Melbourne, have been falling now for a number of months.  The latest ABS housing finance data indicates that the impact of these falls is now seemingly being felt in demand for new mortgages.  
While the value of lending fell over the month for owner occupiers and investors, the slowdown was much more substantial for investors, and the sharp month-on-month fall follows a downwards trend that has been evident across several rounds of macro prudential measures over the past few years.  This isn’t really a surprise given so much of the lending to investors has been focused on Sydney and Melbourne and these cities are seeing values fall and yields at close to historic lows while investors are also incurring higher mortgage rates than owner occupiers, with additional rate premiums they use interest-only mortgages,.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/11/fig1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a> 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/11/fig1.jpg" alt="">
In March 2018 there was $31.9 billion worth of housing finance commitments which was the lowest monthly value of commitments since August 2016.  Housing finance commitments were split between $21.0 billion to owner occupiers and $10.9 billion to investors.  Owner occupier commitments fell by -1.9% over the month to their lowest value since December 2017.  Investor finance commitments were down by -9.0% over the month, falling to their lowest value since January 2016.  The declining trend in investor housing finance commitments had slowed recently, however, the -9.0% monthly fall was the largest decline since September 2015 when they fell -10.4% over the month as lenders tightened in order to remain under the 10% APRA speed limit in annualised terms.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/11/fig2.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge. </a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/11/fig2.jpg" alt="">
The $21.0 billion worth of finance commitments to owner occupiers was split between: $1.9 billion for construction of dwellings, $1.2 billion for purchase of new dwellings, $6.3 billion for the refinance of established dwellings and $11.6 billion for the purchase of established dwellings.  Each type of owner occupier commitment fell over the month however, year-on-year the value of lending for construction of dwellings was the only owner occupier finance segment that was lower.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/11/fig3.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/11/fig3.jpg" alt="">
The $10.9 billion worth of investor housing finance commitments in March 2018 was split between $1.0 billion for construction of new dwellings and $9.9 billion for established dwellings.  The value of lending for new construction was -18.9% lower over the month while the value of commitments for established dwellings was -7.9% lower.  
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/11/fig4.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/11/fig4.jpg" alt="">
Looking more broadly at finance commitments for new housing vs established housing shows a decline over the month for both.  The chart also shows how the established market, of which there are substantially more properties, dwarfs the new housing market.  Over the month there was $4.1 billion worth of commitments for new housing and $21.5 billion for existing housing (excluding refinances).  Commitments for new housing fell by -1.9% over the month while commitments for existing stock were -6.8% lower. 
A month’s worth of data doesn’t necessarily indicate a trend but it was quite a substantial fall in the value of housing finance commitments in March, particularly for investors.  CoreLogic has believed for some time that investment in housing, particularly in the most expensive markets of Sydney and Melbourne, made little sense given stretched affordability, yield compression and little near-term value growth prospects with values currently declining.  Despite this, lending finance data (which will be updated next Tuesday) has continued to show investor activity which is well above average levels in NSW and Vic.  We would expect that the coming release will show a further weakening of demand in these two states.
Over the coming months it is anticipated that mortgage activity, particularly from the investment sector will remain weak relative to recent years.  With APRA recently announcing they will lift the 10% speed limit on investment credit growth from July 1, it will be important to watch the trend in investment credit flows.  
There have been recent reports that lenders are starting to reduce the interest rate premiums on some interest only loans and investment loans, however any reduction in rates could be offset by stricter serviceability testing on borrower expenses and incomes as well as the prospect for renewed focus from lenders to reduce their exposure to high loan to income ratio loans as well as maintaining their reluctance to take on high loan to valuation ratio loans.  
CAMERON KUSHER is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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Is a crunch in investor mortgage demand now starting to bite?

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
In a recent letter to all Australian authorised deposit-taking institutions (ADIs) entitled ‘Embedding Sound Residential Lending Practices,’ APRA indicated that lenders need to limit lending at very high debt to income levels.  
The actual wording of the comment was, APRA expects ADIs to commit to developing internal risk appetite limits on the proportion of new lending at very high debt to income levels (where debt is greater than 6 times a borrower’s income), and policy limits on maximum debt to income levels for individual borrowers.  
This doesn’t suggest that there is any hard limit on loan to income (LTI) ratios above 6 times but it does suggest that there will be less appetite for mortgages which are in excess of 6 times incomes.
Utilising gross household income data that has been modelled by the Australian National University (ANU) Centre for Social Research and Methods we can take a look across the individual capital cities at what the impact of limiting debt to income ratios to six times would be.  
The following charts look at annual gross household incomes with a comparison to median values at the end of 2017.  Incomes are elevated six times for comparison to median prices.  
The high median value relative to incomes implies the typical Sydney household would probably be targeting properties across the lower quartile of values rather than around the middle of the valuation range. 
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-05/2018-05-25-blogimg1.png" alt="2018-05-25--blogimg1" width="1102" height="480">
 
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-05/2018-05-25-blogimg2.png" alt="2018-05-25--blogimg2" width="1102" height="480">
Six times the median gross household income in Sydney is calculated at $688,764.  
The median house value in Sydney is $1,058,306 and the median unit value is $774,124.  
What this means is that if a buyer wanted to purchase the median house under this scenario they would need a deposit of $369,542 and for the median unit they’d need a deposit of $85,360. 
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-05/2018-05-25-blogimg3.png" alt="2018-05-25--blogimg3" width="1102" height="480">
 
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-05/2018-05-25-blogimg4.png" alt="2018-05-25--blogimg4" width="1102" height="480">
At the end of 2017, Melbourne’s median house value was $832,735 and the median unit value was $574,052.  At the same time, the median gross household income was $1,553/week with six times this annual income was recorded at $605,787.  Based on these figures, at 6 times income, borrowers in Melbourne can still afford the median unit but would need a deposit of $226,948 to be able to borrow below six times their income for the median house.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-05/2018-05-25-blogimg5.png" alt="2018-05-25--blogimg5" width="1102" height="480">
  
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-05/2018-05-25-blogimg6.png" alt="2018-05-25--blogimg6" width="1102" height="480">
Unlike Sydney and Melbourne, households on the median income in Brisbane can still afford to borrow enough for the median valued house or unit.  The borrowing power for someone on the median income is $608,830 which is lower than both the median house ($531,248) and median unit ($383,752) value.   
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-05/2018-05-25-blogimg7.png" alt="2018-05-25--blogimg7" width="1102" height="480">
 
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-05/2018-05-25-blogimg8.png" alt="2018-05-25--blogimg8" width="1102" height="480">
The typical household in Adelaide can still afford the median house and unit.  As at December 2017 the median house cost $458,806 and the median unit $331,325.  Based on the median gross household income of $1,277/week someone on this income could borrow up to $498,161.  
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-05/2018-05-25-blogimg9.png" alt="2018-05-25--blogimg9" width="1102" height="480"><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-05/2018-05-25-blogimg10.png" alt="2018-05-25--blogimg10" width="1102" height="480">
  Based on the median household income for Perth, someone borrowing six times their annual income could borrow $616,088.  Based on this figure, a borrower purchasing the median property would be comfortably below six times their annual income whether they’re purchasing a houses ($484,562) or a unit ($408,488). 
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-05/2018-05-25-blogimg11.png" alt="2018-05-25--blogimg11" width="1102" height="480"><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-05/2018-05-25-blogimg12.png" alt="2018-05-25--blogimg12" width="1102" height="480">
   A borrower in Hobart on the gross household income ($1,248/week) borrowing six times their annual income could borrow up to $486,823.  The $486,823 figure is lower than the median house ($424,251) and median unit ($335,289) value for Hobart. 
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-05/2018-05-25-blogimg13.png" alt="2018-05-25--blogimg13" width="1102" height="480"><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-05/2018-05-25-blogimg14.png" alt="2018-05-25--blogimg14" width="1102" height="480">
 Median household incomes in Darwin are quite high at $2,200/week.  Based on a borrower’s ability to borrow six times the household income, the median household could borrow up to $858,063.  Median house value ($469,083) and median unit values ($356,992) are significantly lower than $858,063. 
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-05/2018-05-25-blogimg15.png" alt="2018-05-25--blogimg15" width="1102" height="480"><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-05/2018-05-25-blogimg16.png" alt="2018-05-25--blogimg16" width="1102" height="480">
  Like Darwin, Canberra also has relatively high median household incomes at $2,170/week.  Someone borrowing six times the annual income would be able to borrow up to $846,358 which is significantly higher than the median house and unit values which are recorded at $669,642 and $431,048. Of course median values don’t tell the whole story, as many properties are valued below as there are above however, it is valuable in providing a guide for what impact limiting high loan to income lending would have.  
In Sydney the median household can’t afford the median house or unit if there was a LTI limit of 6 times and in Melbourne the median household can’t afford the median house.  Were hard limits on LTI to be implemented it would have a much bigger impact on Sydney and Melbourne than any other areas of the country.  Any limit would still have some impact on households outside of Sydney and Melbourne, not to mention those that are purchasing properties additional to their principal place of resident.
Also keep in mind that these figures are only looking at a single scenario.  In most instances a lender will not allow a borrower to borrow 100% of the value of a property and if a borrower has a deposit of less than 20% they will need to pay lenders mortgage insurance (LMI).
So far there is no indication of a hard cap on LTI ratios.  What is clear is that APRA would like to see high LTI lending dialled back and that will have an impact on some borrowers, particularly those purchasing more expensive properties and/or those that have multiple properties.
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Cameron Kusher

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