Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Building Approvals

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Despite this recent lift the Index has still registered four consecutive months in which the growth rate has been negative. This continues to support the signal that growth through the first two to three quarters of 2019 is likely to be below trend.
Moreover the lift in the growth rate was entirely due (0.44ppts of the 0.45ppt lift) to one component – dwelling approvals – which printed a 19.1% lift reflecting a boost in the volatile high rise sector in NSW and Victoria. Note that approvals for the stable ‘private detached houses’ sector were actually down by 3.6%.
It is reasonable to expect a substantial reversal in the dwelling approvals series next month.
The signal from the Index has been consistent with the weak momentum in the second half of 2018 revealed in the print of the December quarter national accounts. In the second half of 2018 growth momentum slowed to an annualised pace of 1% from a 4% pace in the first half of the year.
Westpac expects growth in the Australian economy in 2019 to be around 2.2% – significantly below trend which is generally assessed as 2.75%.
Key to the ongoing slow growth will be a challenged consumer as households adjust to slower than expected wages growth and falling house prices. That will be compounded by a continuation of the contraction in residential house building activity that appears to have begun in the September quarter of 2018.
We have consistently highlighted these risks which are coinciding with a slowdown in jobs growth and investment spending as both political uncertainty and global volatility weigh on firms’ employment and investment decisions.
The Index growth rate has deteriorated over the last six months, declining from +0.18% in October to –0.09% in March. Four components have contributed to this deterioration: the yield spread (–0.33ppts); commodity prices (–0.19ppts); US industrial production (–0.11ppts); and the Westpac-MI Unemployment Expectations index (–0.07ppts).
On the other hand, dwelling approvals (+0.28ppts); aggregate monthly hours worked (+0.10ppts); and the ASX 200 (+0.07ppts) lifted the growth rate. The contribution from the Westpac –MI CSI expectations index was unchanged.
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on May 7. The minutes of the April Board meeting have come close to setting out an easing bias. The minutes clarify that the Board believes that lower rates will assist the Australian economy through a lower currency and a boost to disposable income. It also sets out the case for lower rates around ongoing flat inflation and an uptrend in the unemployment rate.
Conditions for lower rates are given much more consideration than the case for a rate increase. Surprisingly, there seems to be little discussion about the Bank’s ongoing poor performance around its inflation target or the likelihood that it will once again be lowering its growth forecasts when it releases its revised forecasts in its May Statement on Monetary Policy on May 10.
Westpac sees no reason to change its forecast that the RBA will make its first cut to the cash rate at the August meeting to be followed by a second cut in November.
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
 
 
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bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

Building approvals lift the Leading Index, but negative growth rate continues: Bill Evans

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
The February Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) figures for NSW housing approvals indicate a slight rise of 5.4%.
The ABS data in trend terms shows a slight increase in housing approvals between November 2018 and February 2019.
In February there were 5,001 housing approvals which is 5.4% more than the 4,745 approvals in November 2018.
The jump is driven by a surge in higher density apartment approvals which rose by 17.3% between last November and February this year.
This was offset, however, by a reduction of 6% in house approvals over the same time span.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/4/5/New%20Project%201.jpg" alt="">
Source: RBA
The spike in apartment approvals may be a sign of more confidence, or more likely it represents projects submitted some time ago that were held up over the Christmas holiday break.
It is clear that many approvals are not translating into real commencements, as the pre sales rate of apartments has dropped significantly.
The Saturday Domain publication that advertises homes for sale or auction a year ago was dominated by apartments, with around 70% of the pages featuring apartments.
Recent editions have only about 10% of advertisements for apartments in a publication that has far less homes for sale overall.
The Urban Taskforce believes the new Planning Minister, Rob Stokes, and his Secretary of Planning must organise a Housing Supply Summit to assess how the current market is performing, so that policy levers could be pulled to ensure the appropriate supply for future years is maintained.
CHRIS JOHNSON is the Urban Taskforce CEO.
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cjohnson-8xfqfuuCSq

Green shoots in NSW housing approvals but more needs to be done: Chris Johnson

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GUEST OBSERVATION
PowerHousing Australia today welcomes the announcement of tax breaks for institutional investors into build-to-rent if the ALP wins the upcoming Federal Election in May.
The Managed Investment Trust withholding tax rate would be cut from 30% to 15% on tax distributions attributable to investments in BTR.
The announcement today of decreased tax rates for institutional investors if focused on affordable housing will see greater investment into the development of build-to-rent properties as part of a burgeoning new domestic asset investment class.
Build-to-rent is already established in the US where it is known as multifamily housing, and its great success has been followed through in the UK.
With house prices still out of reach to many Australians, increased investment into this emerging asset class will see more rental stock available to the market.
PowerHousing Australia met in the past year with the key pension funds, financial and affordable housing providers as well as intermediaries in San Francisco, New York and Washington and the runs are on the board for the past 30 years.
Build to Rent in the U.S supplies up to 10% of all residential housing delivery per year, and is a safe, government backed investment class which has the lowest volatility in a down turn such as the Great Recession which decimated the US housing market a decade ago.
This election announcement follows the recent announcement of the ALP’s NRAS type 10-year scheme which will subsidise investment into new affordable housing and aims to deliver a quarter of a million new dwellings in areas of need.
With each monthly Building Approvals update we see the Australian new home delivery pipeline fall away. Incentivsation through an NRAS 2.0 as promised and this MIT measure would reduce the potential for new housing delivery rates to collapse with rental prices increase to impact affordability.
The increased federal focus on tackling the housing crisis will go a long way to addressing the shortfall in affordable and appropriate housing across the country, and ensure more Australians can be adequately and fairly housed.
Nicholas Proud is CEO of PowerHousing Australia, which represents Tier One and scale-growth community housing providers.
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Build-to-rent backing will boost building approvals: Nicholas Proud 

<html><body>
Home building approvals started the year on a positive note, with an increase of 2.5 percent during January in seasonally-adjusted terms.
Master Builders Australia's chief economist Shane Garrett said the rise in approvals during January follows a run of weak results during the back end of last year.
"Higher density housing in particular has lost a lot of ground over the past 12 months,” he said. 
“During January, the number of approvals for new detached houses rose by 1.9% with a stronger increase of 3.8% on the apartment/units side of the market,” Garrett said. 
“Despite the welcome increase in approvals during January, we are still down by almost 30% compared with this time last year,” he said. 
“The ongoing difficulties in the flow of credit and concerns about the direction of housing policy post-election are having negative effects on home building activity,” Garrett added. 
“Construction is the economy’s largest provider of full-time jobs and the upcoming round of federal, state and territory budgets provides a real opportunity to get us back onto the right track,” he said. 
During January, WA saw the largest increase in total new home approvals (+28.8%), followed by Tasmania (+15.4%) and NSW (+12.0%). 
The largest reductions affected the ACT (-19.8%) and the NT (-8.0%). Approvals also declined in Victoria (-7.9%), Queensland (-3.5%) and SA (-1.5%) during the month.
The raw figures announced by the ABS may be weak. 
In January, dwelling approvals decline 3.2 percent in trend terms.
Approvals for townhouses and apartments fell just over eight percent in trend terms, with private sector housing decline 0.4 percent.
 
 
 
 
 
 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Home approval boost in January, but trending lower

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) indicates flat housing approvals in NSW but falling non-residential approvals.
The non-residential building approvals in NSW have dropped by 25% between December 2017 and May 2018 which is of concern.
In December 2017 non-residential approvals were valued at $1,272,944,000 but six months later this has dropped to $957,551,000 according to the latest release of ABS building approval data.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/4/UBT%20CJ%20Graph%201.JPG" alt="">
Over the six months from December 2017 to May 2018 the high density residential approvals were flat with 3,221 approvals in December rising slightly to 3,256 in May 2018.
Overall NSW housing approvals were also flat with 5,691 approvals in December 2017 and 5,860 approvals in May 2018.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/4/UBT%20CJ%20graph%202.JPG" alt="">
The signals in the industry are that there is a slow-down building up in the housing market that will carry on for some time but that the slow-down will not be dramatic.
Normally the nonresidential building sector balances a slow-down in residential construction but it appears this is not happening.
Sydney still has a need for large numbers of new homes so the NSW Government will need to carefully monitor the trends ahead to ensure new housing supply continues at a steady rate.
We at the Urban Taskforce are concerned that the lifting of caps on infrastructure contributions and potential value capture and affordable housing levies could add costs to housing development at a time when the industry is slowing.
This would lead to even less housing projects going ahead.
We are also concerned that in the lead up to the next NSW election in March 2019 there is a significant amount of anti-development discussion in the media and a number of politicians are using the concerns in the community to put planning for new housing on hold.
A pre-election slow-down in development approvals could lead to a more difficult post-election environment where housing supply went backwards.
Chris Johnson is Urban Taskforce CEO.
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Housing approval rates flat and non-residential falling in NSW: Chris Johnson

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
The May building approvals data support ANZ's view that the peak in new housing approvals has past.
Weak housing finance results and the ongoing tightening of credit availability are likely to see approvals continue to ease.
From an investment point of view, the backlog of work will keep activity elevated over the near term, but construction is expected to fall through the end of this year and 2019.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/3/ANZ%20Past%20Peak%20Approval.JPG" alt="">
Australian residential building approvals were slightly weaker than market expectations in May, falling 3%, after a 5% decline in the previous month.
Queensland was the main driver of this weakness.
Apartment approvals in the state fell 35%, to the lowest level in four years.
The historically stable segment of detached houses saw a 20% fall in approvals.
While these falls follow quite strong results in the last two months, the 2,700 dwellings approved in Queensland in May is the weakest monthly result since June 2013.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/3/ANZ%20Detached%20House.JPG" alt="">
Detached house approvals also recorded a significant decline in Victoria, down 10%.
However, strength in the unit/apartment segment (+15% m/m) meant that Victorian approvals were overall unchanged.
These results are consistent with ANZ's view that Australia is past the peak in housing approvals.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/3/ANZ%20weak%20housing%20finance.JPG" alt="">
Looking forward, the decline in housing finance for the construction and purchase of new dwellings suggests that building approvals will continue to trend lower.
The tighter credit environment appears to be impacting the construction side, as well as prices, but a large backlog of work will support investment in the near term.
Daniel Gradwell is the senior economist for <a href="https://www.anz.com.au/">ANZ</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

New housing approvals past peak with further weakness likely: ANZ

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The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) figures for April 2018 show a big drop in non - residential approvals for NSW.
The April 2018 approvals for non-residential buildings in NSW have dropped from a high in December 2017 of $1,272 million to $877 million in April 2018 according to the ABS trend figures released today.
This represents a drop of 31% over a 4 month period which is of concern in relation to the jobs that flow from construction.
The residential approvals however seem to be stable with 5,744 approvals in April 2018 which is just ahead of the 5,691 approvals in March. Both detached houses and higher density apartment approvals were steady.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/31/taskforce.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
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There are concerns that the current slow-down in the sales of homes, particularly for pre-sales for apartments, could mean some projects will be delayed therefore reducing the job potential from residential construction. It is also clear that housing sales are slowing with the recent announcement by the NSW Treasurer of a drop in sales tax returns to the state government from the sale of new and existing homes.
The NSW Government will need to carefully watch the slowing amount of activity in the building construction sector that will impact on the 400,000 jobs currently generated by the sector. There are a number of levies applied by the state government and by councils that are impacting on the cost of housing that could be modified to help boost the supply of much needed housing particularly in Sydney. 
The Urban Taskforce is keen to work with the NSW Government to ensure that the significant number of jobs generated by the development sector is maintained over short and long term periods. 
CHRIS JOHNSON is the Urban Taskforce CEO.
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NSW sees non-residential building approvals drop by 31 percent

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Guest Observer
Dwelling approvals rose by 17.1 per cent in January after declining by a downwardly revised 20.6 per cent in December (previously -20.0 per cent).
It was the strongest monthly increase in over four years. The annual value of commercial building approvals stands at record highs of $47.4 billion.
What does it all mean?
Commercial building approvals reached record highs in dollar terms at $47.4 billion in January. Strong growth in tourism and high occupancy rates are likely encouraging activity in the CBD hotels sector. High demand for warehousing from growing online retailing may also be supporting industrial commercial developments. Office sentiment also remains elevated according to the latest NAB commercial property survey.
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Apartment approvals remain volatile, especially in Melbourne. This is to be expected during the summer ‘low’ season. Victorian dwelling approvals are up by 22.5 per cent over the year, reflecting the underlying strength of the economy and nation-leading population growth.
But it’s Queensland that leads the nation in total building approvals with an annual growth rate of 24.5 per cent. Much has been made of a potential apartment supply glut in Brisbane. Apartment approvals have rebounded, almost doubling over the year to January.
Overall dwelling investment may have peaked, but detached house building activity remains healthy. House approvals are up by 5.9 per cent over the year to January, despite some seasonal weakness, especially in Queensland
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What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
The housing market is continuing to rebalance across the country. Prices are cooling in Sydney and Melbourne and investor demand has subsided in the face of lending restrictions.
Commercial property building has reached record highs. This could provide support for building commencements, especially with residential construction softening from record high levels. Of course, approvals need to translate into starts, though commercial property building activity sentiment is positive.
Apartment supply remains in focus. Seasonal volatility makes it difficult to get a read on council approvals – especially in Sydney and Melbourne. Nevertheless, concerns still persist about a supply glut of inner Brisbane (i.e. West End) and suburban (i.e. Chermside) high rise unit blocks. Still, Queensland is leading the country in jobs growth and interstate migration is strengthening.
Ryan Felsman is a senior economist at CommSec.
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Commercial approvals at record highs, apartment approvals volatile: CommSec

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GUEST OBSERVER
The headline number of new dwelling approvals rose again during October - the third consecutive month of expansion – a consequence of significant growth in Victoria. 
The ABS Building Approvals data report that the total number of new dwelling approvals rose by 0.9% compared with September.
This growth was underpinned by a 24.3% increase in approvals in Victoria and 6.1% growth in Queensland, which outstripped the declines in all other states.
The remarkable growth in Victoria is the stand-out feature of the Australian housing market at the moment.
Strong employment growth in Victoria is attracting interstate and international migration and the rising population is continuing to drive demand for more housing stock.
The record supply of new apartments in the state has not been able to fully satisfy demand.
Today’s data are consistent with our latest forecasts which were released earlier this week. The short- term outlook for new home building has been upgraded.
During 2018, we foresee an 8.2% reduction in new dwelling starts followed by a decline of 10.0% in 2019. This will mean that new home building activity will ease to levels that remain high by historic standards.
The positive result was driven by new detached house approvals which saw a 1.9% gain during October. Approvals on the multi-unit side dipped by 0.2% during the month.
New dwelling approvals declined in five jurisdictions during October, with the largest fall affecting Western Australia (-17.8%).
There were also reductions in Tasmania (-13.1%), South Australia (-8.4%), New South Wales (-6.8%) and the ACT (-5.3%). Only two states experienced growth in new dwelling approvals during October 2017. 
Shane Garrett is a senior economist at HIA.
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Victoria pushes national approval rate higher: Shane Garrett

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GUEST OBSERVER
Vital Signs is a weekly economic wrap from UNSW economics professor and Harvard PhD Richard Holden (@profholden). Vital Signs aims to contextualise weekly economic events and cut through the noise of the data affecting global economies.
This week: the RBA cash rate, new car sales, building approvals and a worrying survey from UBS.
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Data released this week in Australia and the United States showed continued strength - or at least a lack of weakness - in consumer spending and unemployment.
New car sales in Australia - one measure of consumer sentiment and spending - declined slightly in September from the year before. However, new car sales are still slightly ahead (0.2%) of last year’s numbers, on a yearly basis.
<a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs%40.nsf/mediareleasesbyCatalogue/B4669E44CACBB1D5CA257E38001BDFC5?OpenDocument" target="_blank">Building approvals</a> also showed some mixed signs. The data shows overall approvals were up 0.4% in August. They had fallen 1.2% (on revised figures) in July. This was driven by apartment approvals, which were up 4.8%, while approvals for houses fell 0.6%. Year-on-year the news is still bleak. Approvals are down 15.5% on that basis - the 12th consecutive month they have fallen.
Perhaps developers don’t like to build into property bubbles, at least not forever.
In the US there was continued strong employment data, this time from payroll processing records. <a href="https://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2017/September/NER/NER-September-2017.aspx" target="_blank">ADP data</a> showed that US private-sector employers added 135,000 jobs in September. This was well above market forecasts that were subdued due to Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. It is now expected that the US unemployment rate will stay at the current very low 4.4% when official data is released.
However, the US Federal Reserve is still concerned about the low level of inflation, which has been persistently below its target range. Recently, Fed Chair Janet Yellen <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20170926a.htm">observed</a> that:
"My colleagues and I may have misjudged the strength of the labor market, the degree to which longer-run inflation expectations are consistent with our inflation objective, or even the fundamental forces driving inflation."
That was a very candid observation, but perhaps just as importantly, Yellen pointed out one important reason why it matters, <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20170926a.htm" target="_blank">saying</a>, 
"Sustained low inflation such as this is undesirable because, among other things, it generally leads to low settings of the federal funds rate in normal times, thereby providing less scope to ease monetary policy to fight recessions."
Meanwhile, in Australia the RBA left the official cash rate at 1.50% for the 13th (lucky for some?) consecutive meeting, with no rate rise in sight. RBA governor Philip Lowe said this week:
"Slow growth in real wages and high levels of household debt are likely to constrain growth in household spending."
This underlines the consistent bind that Lowe finds himself in. If he raises rates then he could put already debt riddled households under further pressure and crater spending - which accounts for roughly three-quarters of GDP - as those households try and adjust their balance sheets in the face of stagnant wages.
It has been a consistent theme of this column that both the Fed and RBA are in something of a bind - if for slightly different reasons. And both Yellen’s and Lowe’s remarks highlight this.
But the truly scary news this week was about Australian mortgages, with a survey from UBS saying that one-third of Australian borrowers don’t know their mortgages are interest only. Or as UBS put it:
We are concerned that it is likely that approximately one-third of borrowers who have taken out an IO mortgage have little understanding of the product or that their repayments will jump by between 30-60 per cent at the end of the IO period.
Now, economists don’t normally put much stock in surveys – we like “revealed preference” data. But this survey I will listen to.
This has US circa 2008 written all over it. Back then, many borrowers with adjustable-rate mortgages didn’t realise that the rates ratcheted up sharply after (typically) five years. When those rates did, and the borrowers couldn’t refinance because of market conditions, there was a meltdown that led to Bear Sterns and Lehman Brothers going to the wall. And then, of course, the whole financial crisis.
If UBS is right, Australia has a similar time-bomb ticking away. Maybe not quite as bad, but I don’t know. Remember <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/4corners/betting-on-the-house/8816724" target="_blank">ANZ chief executive Shayne Elliot on Four Corners</a> telling us how his mortgage book was super-diversified because they were all uncorrelated individual mortgages? Well, not if his book includes folks who don’t understand their loan contracts.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/85035/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">Whatever APRA is doing right (or wrong), it can’t deal with loans that have already been written. That puts the RBA in a bind - and should make us all cautious about how robust the Australian economy really is.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics and PLuS Alliance Fellow, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-the-data-is-mixed-but-worrying-signs-from-mortgagees-85035" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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