Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Boom

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<div>
SQM's top 10 discounted properties have four located in Western Australia, and these four properties are clear examples of the continued impact of the commodities downturn.
Set in the rural town of Carabooda, number five and six on the list are not your typical family homes.
Sitting 48km outside of Perth CBD, both properties are set on over 15 hectares, with the potential to live and earn a living of the land.
Interestingly, both properties have been on the market for the same amount of time, however, number five, 292 Carabooda Road, as been reduced by two more percentage points, a total saving of $618,000. 
In contrast to these rural beauties, number eight and nine on our list are suitable for buyers wanting to be pampered and live in and close to Perth City.
Number eight, 4/134 Marine Parade, Cottesloe, has been on the market over two years now with the vendor slashing the price by $950,000.
With a reduction of just under a million dollars, this property is clearly a bargain.
Comparatively, number ten on our list 11/580 Hay Street, Perth, has recently passed the one year mark on the market, with the vendor slashing the price by half a million dollars.
</div>
<img src="/images/2015/06/17/sqmfallback2.jpg" alt="">
 Loius Christopher is an indépendant property analyst for SQM. You can follow him on twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/louichristopher" target="_blank">here</a>.
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louischristopher-TWpYcZDLBK

Mining boom downturn triggers four WA offerings on SQM top discounted list 

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It was four months ago - the WA mining town auction that shocked the nation.
The ABC reported on a Port Hedland February auction where the fibro cottage was passed in at auction for $360,000 unsold - its highest offer reflecting 2006 price levels.
Immediately after the auction came its declared $600,000 asking price, then $590,000 in March.
It had last traded four years ago for $1.3 million, and before that at $870,000 in 2009 and at $350,000 nine years ago in 2006. 
<a href="https://www.janfordrealestate.com.au/1928630/" target="_blank">It is now for sale at $470,000</a> after yet another price adjustment. 
The three bedroom, one bathroom 1960s house sits in the heart of the Western Australian mining town. It is within the business and commercial district, opposite developments and not far from the boat ramp, Marapikarrinya Park, and fishing wharf.
<img src="/images/2015/06/17/700_headland.jpg" alt="">
Real estate agent Barry Walsh at Jan Ford Real Estate told the ABC the top bid was a sign the mining boom's construction phase had tapered off.
Negotiations continue for the sale of the cottage with 145 square space on its 600 square metre block.
It was initially listed for private treaty sale in June 2013 at $1.42 million.
Property Observer understands its most recent rental asking price was $800 a week in mid-2014, having been in excess of $2000 a week in 2008 and 2011, when it was last sold.
ABC reported that the <a href="/expert-insights/buying/sydneys-weekend-auction-clearance-rate-soars-to-82-but-port-hedland-highlights-how-the-mighty-can-fall">fibro cottage passed in at auction at $360,000</a>, with the highest offer reflecting 2006 price levels.
In February the listing agent, Barry Walsh at Jan Ford Real Estate, told Property Observer that at the peak of the mining boom, property prices in the Port Hedland and South Hedland regions were unsustainable.
"It was totally unsustainable where it was, and now that it's stabilising, it will bottom out, and is in the throes of doing that," says Walsh. He says 18 Edgar Street was advertised to rent at $2,400 per week at the market's peak," said Walsh.
"And now, you wouldn't rent it for $500 per week. That's a reflection of the rental market."
According to Walsh, the market was now in the process of returning to its fundamental value.
"The stabilisation of the market is a very good thing for Port/South Hedland and the Pilbura region," he says.
"It was unfortunate that the market went where it did, to unsustainable and disproportionate price levels."
He attributes some of the price escalation to the inability to release a sufficient amount of land for development to cope with the influx of residents who were attracted to the area's mining economy. The infrastructure required to house the expected 30,000 to 50,000 residents – everything from hospitals and schools to sewers and roads – wasn't available to facilitate the expansion of the region, making tenants compete for the existing properties.
"The rents got to about $2,800 a week – some of the dearest in the world."
He says 18 Edgar Street is currently advertised for $600,000 through private treaty, with a couple of potential buyers engaged. He says the property, as it exists now, would only be worth around $250,000 to investors as a residential building.
"Everyone up here would want at least 10% gross return", Walsh explained.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Port Hedland auction shocker - still unsold four months on

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GUEST OBSERVER
The RBA continues to face a tricky balancing act. Low interest rates are needed to continue to support the rebalancing of growth, as mining investment continues to fall. But, interest rates have now been low for quite some time and they are starting to drive potential asset price bubbles in some parts of the economy.
The key problem relates to the fact that the RBA's cash rate is, and always has been, a blunt instrument. Low interest rates are having their strongest effect on housing prices, which is flowing through to a residential construction boom and a pick-up in durable goods sales. However, the transmission of this effect to business investment and hiring – which is what the central bank would really like to see – has, so far, been weak.
Housing prices are also rising unevenly across the country. Sydney prices are up 39% in the past three years, while prices are 22% higher in Melbourne and only 10% higher elsewhere. More even housing price growth would be preferred. Although the trends in Sydney and Melbourne are what should be expected, given that these cities have the least exposure to the mining sector, at the same time, this is how 'bubbles' can form. What looks like a strong growth story, based on fundamentals (think: the IT bubble of the early 2000s), sees rising investor interest and, at some point, prices rise ahead of fundamentals. The market gets exuberant, as investors begin to believe that prices can only go up. 
The Sydney housing market is showing some of these more worrisome traits and has been for some time now (see '<a href="https://www.research.hsbc.com/midas/Res/RDV?p=pdf&amp;key=kCWWcrdPsN&amp;n=446843.PDF" target="_blank">Downunder digest: Australia's housing boom may get bubbly</a>', 10 February 2015). Investors continue to dominate the Sydney market, prices are rising at 15% y-o-y and auction clearance rates are around record highs.
To try to deal with this issue, the authorities have been tightening prudential settings (to sharpen the instrument). Concerns about the housing market are also likely to have been a key reason why the RBA has been reluctant to have an explicit 'easing bias', despite below-trend growth and the central bank's desire to see the AUD fall further.
No national bubble, but Sydney's exuberance is worrisome 
A housing boom is a part of the plan to rebalance Australia's growth as mining investment falls. When the mining boom was at its height, back in 2011 and 2012, the housing market was being held back by high interest rates which helped to make way for the mining boom without excessive inflation. Then, to stimulate activity in the non-mining sectors, the RBA cut its cash rate from a peak of 4.75% in 2011 to its current record low of 2.00%. As a result, house prices have risen by 24% in the past three years (Chart 1).
At this pace, housing prices have significantly outpaced household disposable income growth. But, from a national perspective these gains do not appear excessive. Indeed, the housing-price to income ratio is only now just reaching its previous peak levels (Chart 2).
<a href="/images/2015/06/10/hsbc1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/06/10/hsbc1.jpg" alt="" width="710" height="328">
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However, the national story hides some more worrisome regional trends. Sydney housing prices have risen by 39% over the past three years, much faster than the other cities (Chart 3). Housing prices are also still rising in Sydney at a 15% y-o-y rate. Although comprehensive state-level income statistics are not available on a time-series basis, it is likely that the Sydney housing price gains are outstripping income growth. Sydney housing price gains are running well ahead of national household disposable income growth (Chart 4).
<a href="/images/2015/06/10/hsbc2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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<img src="/images/2015/06/10/hsbc2.jpg" alt="" width="649" height="302">
Local investors and foreign demand driving the market 
As is part of the plan, the main driver of Australia's housing price boom continues to be low interest rates. As a result of low interest rates, housing loan approvals have risen by 67% since their trough in mid-2011 and are currently rising at a 14% y-o-y rate (Chart 5). It is also clear that the main driver of the ramp up in housing prices continues to be investors, rather than first home buyers or repeat purchasers for owner- occupation (Chart 6). This is more unexpected. Investor loan approvals have risen by 112% since their trough in 2011, while loans to repeat buyers are up 47% and first home buyer loan approvals have only risen by 13%.
<a href="/images/2015/06/10/hsbc3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/06/10/hsbc3.jpg" alt="" width="677" height="308">
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Again, there are significant divergences in the trends across the states. The New South Wales (NSW) market, which is mostly Sydney, is being largely driven by investors (Chart 7). The investor share of new housing loan approvals in NSW has remained around record levels for the past six months or so. 
Although investors in Australia's housing market tend to be lower risk borrowers, increased investor interest can provide a tell-tale sign that the market is overly exuberant. In Australia, investors tend to have lower loan-to-valuation ratios than owner-occupiers, to be older households with equity in an owner-occupied dwelling and have higher incomes than first home buyers. This tends to make them a safer risk for lenders. However, investors are also typically involved in the housing market on the expectation of capital gains. A high level of investor involvement is therefore a signal of a growing speculative dynamic that may be worrisome. If this begins to feed on itself, with expectations of capital gains starting to drive further capital gains, a bubble could form.
The other driver of the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets has been significant foreign investor interest, particularly in the apartment markets. Again, estimates of foreign investment flows are imprecise. This largely reflects that it is difficult to define a 'foreigner' in Australia's context. Keep in mind that 28% of Australia's population was born in another country, that there are 200k new migrants each year and around 500k foreign students in the country at any point in time. 
Nonetheless, there are some data available from the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB), as genuine foreigners require FIRB approval for real estate purchases. The FIRB report that approvals for foreign investment in real estate rose from 12,025 in FY2012/13 to 23,428 in FY2013/14. Although this a significant rise (95%), it still only leaves measured foreign approvals comprising around 5% of all dwellings turned over in that year. It remains that case that interest rates and local buyers are the dominant drivers of the housing market. 
However, the recent fall in the AUD, could mean that foreign interest in the housing market continues to rise. There is some evidence that a potential driver of increased foreign interest in Australia's housing market has been the recent depreciation of the AUD, particularly against the RMB (Chart 8). Further falls in the currency could continue to support this growing foreign interest.
<a href="/images/2015/06/10/hsbc4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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Authorities are sharpening the prudential tool 
As the RBA's cash rate setting is a blunt instrument, further fine-tuning is largely being left to the prudential regulator. Indeed, the RBA appears to be increasingly focused on managing the real economy, leaving the role of managing the financial cycle to the prudential regulator (as we discussed in detail here: <a href="https://www.research.hsbc.com/midas/Res/RDV?p=pdf&amp;key=j8qW80utUE&amp;n=462148.PDF" target="_blank">Downunder Digest: Australia's evolving approach to macropru'</a>, 20 May 2015).
The Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority (APRA) already requires that all new mortgages pass a serviceability test at an interest rate of 7.00% and that lenders should not grow their investor housing lending at a faster rate than 10% a year, or they could face closer scrutiny if they do. In a recent speech, the Chairman of the APRA, Wayne Byrnes, made it clear that the prudential regulator had been turning up the dial further on its regulatory settings. As a result, most of the major banks have reduced discounts on lending rates to housing investors over the past month. 
It also seems likely that concerns about the housing market have been a key reason why the RBA has been reluctant to have an explicit 'easing bias', despite below-trend growth and the central bank's desire to see the AUD fall further. 
<a href="/images/2015/06/10/hsbc5.jpg" target="_blank"> Click to enlarge</a>
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<a href="https://www.about.hsbc.com.au/hsbc-in-australia/management-team" target="_blank">PAUL BLOXHAM</a> IS CHIEF ECONOMIST (AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND) FOR HSBC. 
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Sydney's housing boom or bubble? HSBC's Paul Bloxham's worrisome conclusion

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John Symond, the founder and chairman of Aussie Home Loans, believes the Sydney residential market was peaking.
"She's topped out," he suggests.
"I really can see, I am feeling it already..that the market is just starting to come off the boil," he told Ross Greenwood on the 2GB Money News program tonight.
"By Christmas I reckon instead of going up in the hot areas by 15%, I reckon it will be like half of that."
"Into next year, I think they'll (prices growth) will settle right down to four or five percent. It will be a more healthy market, than the fears that are around at the moment.
"Ross I have been telling friends of mine… who ask me that question all the time … and I reckon that the prices are so high at the moment, my suggestion is wait six to 12 months the chances are, all going well, there will be opportunities out there that you will probably buy better in some areas than what you can buy today."
 
 
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Patience John Symond advises Sydney first home buyers: the market is coming off the boil

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GUEST OBSERVER
Australia’s apartment boom is in full swing. Nationally, 40% of new dwellings are now apartments or units, and building approvals outnumber those for houses. Melbourne and Brisbane are the most extreme cases, but these trends are national; and they are fundamentally reshaping the future of urban Australia.
In Melbourne, for example, the inner city is being flooded with 1-2 bedroom micro-apartments set in increasingly tall towers (+30 storeys). Almost half are under 50 square metres - not much bigger than a generous double garage. These would be outlawed in other world cities, including Sydney. The Property Council of Australia and much of the industry acknowledges the problem. Victorian Planning Minister Richard Wynne has now released a <a href="https://delwp.vic.gov.au/planning/policy-and-strategy/better-apartments" target="_blank">discussion paper</a>, and there is a plan for new guidelines next year. 
<img src="/images/2015/05/26/Horne1.png" alt="">
The differences between a small one bedroom 42 m2 apartment and a standard one bedroom 50 m2 apartment. RIBA Homewise – The Case for Space: The size of England’s new homes. Included in Future Living, City of Melbourne, 2013.
The market is not delivering what families need, and as a result, future liveability in Australian cities is in jeopardy. Much of the commentary is about size and density. An urgent discussion is also needed about quality and the market.
Reports of “vertical slums” are not entirely unwarranted. Apartments can be great homes – why are ours so mismatched with families and affordability concerns? For working families in the city who need access to services and work, there are few affordable alternatives.
<h2>Quality vacuum – a race to the bottom</h2>
Many new apartments have bedrooms with no windows, low ceilings and inadequate storage. They have poor access to natural light and ventilation, and underperform on environmental efficiency. Internal amenity of apartments is <a href="https://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au/BuildingandPlanning/FutureGrowth/Documents/future_living_discussion_paper.pdf" target="_blank">comparatively under-regulated</a>. Apartment bedrooms without windows, for instance, are illegal in New York, Hong Kong and Vancouver.
<img src="/images/2015/05/26/Horne2.png" alt="">
An example of the features included in a ‘poor’ housing development. <a class="source" href="https://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au/BuildingandPlanning/FutureGrowth/Documents/future_living_discussion_paper.pdf" target="_blank">Future Living, City of Melbourne 2013</a>
Current regulation is failing families and future Australians. Building Code of Australia (BCA) and National Construction Code (NCC) requirements, borne out of original concerns with safety, are seemingly inadequate to the delicate task of ensuring quality while enabling innovation. Even the Guidelines for Higher Density Development (<a href="https://www.dtpli.vic.gov.au/planning/urban-design-and-development/urban-design-guidelines/higher-density-residential-development" target="_blank">DPCD 2004</a>) fail to provide specific and measurable outcomes, with high-level objectives that are evidently easily bypassed in practice. 
<img src="/images/2015/05/26/horne3.jpg" alt=""> 
<h2>Marketing airspace - unconstrained towers</h2>
A <a href="https://www.churchilltrust.com.au/media/fellows/Hodyl_L_2014_Social_outcomes_in_hyper-dense_high-rise_residential_environments_1.pdf" target="_blank">recent report</a> unfavourably compares Melbourne’s high-rise rules to those of world cities. Developers in Melbourne can build at four times the densities allowed in New York, Tokyo or Hong Kong. Moreover, inner city developers are generally under <a href="https://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au/BuildingandPlanning/FutureGrowth/Documents/Homes_for_People_Housing_Strategy_2014-2018.pdf" target="_blank">no obligation to contribute</a> to essential public infrastructure, such as affordable housing and community facilities, through density bonus systems. The findings are nothing short of damning, not least for a city that prizes itself, year on year, as the “world’s most liveable city”.
Market-driven urban development “logic” is rarely questioned, but there’s evidence of wholesale market failure. Much of our high density, high-rise apartment stock caters to the local and overseas investor market, enticed by favourable taxation and regulatory regimes. Putting aside concerns about the potential impact of tightening regulations on foreign property investments, many new apartments seem basically <a href="https://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au/BuildingandPlanning/FutureGrowth/Documents/Homes_for_People_Housing_Strategy_2014-2018.pdf" target="_blank">unaligned to households’ and families’ changing needs</a>.
Two priorities emerge: for reform, and for understanding changing housing needs.
<h2>Reform or regret</h2>
<a href="https://www.churchilltrust.com.au/media/fellows/Hodyl_L_2014_Social_outcomes_in_hyper-dense_high-rise_residential_environments_1.pdf" target="_blank">Hodyl’s report</a> makes a case for urgent market reforms to establish density controls; density bonuses to link development to public benefit, including open spaces, affordable housing and community facilities and an enforceable tower separation rule to mandate the minimum distances between towers. It also argues that Melbourne would benefit from apartment standards.
In Sydney, guidelines and processes have long been in place to regulate minimum apartment sizes, maximum numbers of apartments per floor, requirements for window provision, minimum floor-to-ceiling heights and minimum storage sizes (<a href="https://www.legislation.nsw.gov.au/maintop/view/inforce/epi+530+2002+cd+0+N" target="_blank">SEPP 65</a>).
Reforms towards “good design” pre-suppose an understanding of the future occupants of apartments and their housing needs. A recent study found “good design” is a reasonably <a href="https://researchbank.rmit.edu.au/view/rmit:28891" target="_blank">uncontroversial concept</a>: it is design that accommodates changing household comfort and needs, and contributes positively to the environment, health, wellbeing and safety.
A current study called the <a href="https://www.rmit.edu.au/research/research-institutes-centres-and-groups/research-centres/centre-for-urban-research/projects/current-projects/lifetime-affordable-and-tenable-city-housing/" target="_blank">LATCH Project</a> is underway to determine changing household needs and the everyday experiences of inner-city apartment dwellers, including families.
The research reveals the huge diversity of households – future apartment dwellers are not just single-person households and empty-nesters. They need daylight, functioning kitchen spaces, storage, nearby schools and open space. Things that currently fail to align with high-density developments across our cities.
Ralph Horne is Deputy Pro Vice Chancellor, Research &amp; Innovation; Director of UNGC Cities Programme; Professor at RMIT University and Megan Nethercote is Research Fellow at the Centre for Urban Research at RMIT University. Ralph can be contacted <a href="https://www1.rmit.edu.au/staff/ralphhorne" target="_blank">here</a>.
 
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