<p>The new <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/yarraville-green-42-stephen-street-yarraville-vic-3013">Yarraville Green</a> development in Melbourne's inner west is showing that landscaping can be just as influential as architecture, with buyers responding strongly to the garden-first approach adopted from the outset by developer Excelon Projects and the project's design team.</p>

<p>Excelon appointed Six Degrees Architects and landscape architects SBLA to work collaboratively on the development, with a brief to create "a sustainable, design-led building with a focus on community."</p>

<p>That approach has resonated with buyers. According to Next Chapter Director Tom Hirini, who is leading the sales campaign, the landscaped communal garden has become one of the project's defining features, alongside its boutique scale and European-inspired cluster housing concept.</p>

<p>Local downsizers, right-sizers and established families already living in Yarraville and surrounding suburbs have accounted for the majority of purchasers.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144913 project_image_fid=297740]</p>

<p>Yarraville Green will comprise 53 homes, including apartments and townhomes, arranged around the shared central garden to maximise connections to the landscaped open space. Parking has been moved underground, allowing the ground plane to be dedicated to greenery, pedestrian movement and communal spaces.</p>

<p>The landscape extends well beyond passive planting. Productive garden beds, a pergola, communal gathering spaces, garden sheds and a pet wash have all been integrated into the masterplan, creating spaces designed to encourage everyday interaction between residents.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144913 project_image_fid=297741]</p>

<p>The interiors continue Excelon's focus on craftsmanship, incorporating bespoke elements by Melbourne artisans including leadlight detailing by Adadaz, hand-turned timber hardware by Auburn Woodturning and blown-glass lighting by Ruth Allen.</p>

<p>Sustainability has also been embedded throughout the project, with Yarraville Green targeting an average 7-star NatHERS energy rating through passive design principles, rooftop solar servicing common areas and rainwater harvesting for landscape irrigation.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144913 project_image_fid=297735]</p>

<p>Construction continues to progress at Yarraville Green, with structural works well underway and framing works approaching completion under builder Balmain &amp; Co. The project remains on track for completion in mid-2027.</p>

<p>Apartments at Yarraville Green are currently priced from $625,000, while townhomes start from $1.4 million.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144913]</p>


Joel Robinson

Garden-led design drives buyer demand at Yarraville Green

<p>National diversified developer Fortis has officially launched Crest &amp; Walker, its latest Brisbane apartment development, with construction now underway on the 20-storey Newstead project.</p>

<p>Award-winning builder BINAH has commenced construction on the Bureau^Proberts-designed building, which will deliver a limited collection of 65 two and three-bedroom apartments on Kyabra Street.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373556]</p>

<p>The project marks Fortis' fourth active residential development in Brisbane, following River House, which is nearing completion, alongside projects in New Farm and Hamilton as the national developer continues to expand its South East Queensland pipeline.</p>

<p>Fortis General Manager – Development Queensland Dan Boman said Crest &amp; Walker reflects the developer's long-term commitment to delivering design-led residential projects in Brisbane's established inner-city suburbs.</p>

<p>"We're proud to be strengthening our presence in Brisbane with Crest &amp; Walker, particularly in such a sought-after lifestyle destination as Newstead," Boman said.</p>

<p>"Every Fortis project is shaped by its context, and we approach each one with the respect and care it deserves.</p>

<p>"Our focus is always on creating places that feel connected to their neighbourhood and elevate the everyday experience for residents. Newstead continues to evolve as one of Brisbane's most sought-after urban communities, and Crest &amp; Walker reflects our ambition to contribute meaningfully to that story."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373559]</p>

<p>Positioned between Gasworks Plaza and James Street, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/crest-walker-newstead-12-kyabra-street-newstead-qld-4006">Crest &amp; Walker</a> has been designed as a boutique residential address offering privacy and generous living spaces within one of Brisbane's most established lifestyle precincts.</p>

<p>The building features a contemporary brick podium softened by integrated landscaping, while the upper levels are characterised by restrained architecture and enduring materiality. Interiors have been designed to maximise natural light, acoustic performance and long-term liveability.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373583]</p>

<p>Residences comprise spacious two and three-bedroom floorplans, with two-bedroom apartments priced from $1.55 million and three-bedroom, half-floor residences from $3.95 million.</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a wellness-focused rooftop featuring a swimming pool, sauna, steam room, landscaped dining spaces and outdoor lounge areas overlooking Newstead and the Brisbane CBD.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373571]</p>

<p>Sales are being managed by Slaite Projects, with Fortis expecting strong demand from owner-occupiers seeking a high-quality, design-focused apartment in one of Brisbane's most tightly held inner-city suburbs.</p>

<p>Completion of Crest &amp; Walker is slated for late 2028.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145922]</p>


Fortis expands Brisbane pipeline with launch of Crest & Walker in Newstead

<p>The enormity of delivering a true skyscraper in Australia's new development market is often overlooked.</p>

<p>It has taken the best part of a decade since plans for Chevron One were first unveiled, but the 41-storey tower is now complete, with residents collecting their keys and moving into what has become one of the Gold Coast's most recognisable new landmarks.</p>

<p>Rising 127 metres above Chevron Island, Chevron One stands almost twice as high as any other building on the island. Its scale places it alongside the trio of towers at Jewel, arguably the last truly significant addition to the central Gold Coast skyline when they were completed around six years ago.</p>

<p>While there are several developments underway around a similar height to Chevron One, they are more concentrated within clusters of the highest towers in the city. The fact Chevron One sits within a developing precinct, looking back at the other high-rise developments in Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach, makes it a different proposition altogether. It will certainly become a reference point on the Gold Coast skyline.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=68833]</p>

<p>Developer Bensons Property Group is behind the 41-storey tower, which has 229 apartments, along with an exhaustive list of resident amenity spread across what is the largest development site ever assembled on Chevron Island.</p>

<p>The tower has been the talk of the town for years, says Ray White Projects Gold Coast agent Caitlin Rosenboom, who is selling the remaining apartments.</p>

<p>"People have been watching Chevron One go up for years," Rosenboom says, adding that many prospective buyers have been surprised by the scale of the views once they step inside.</p>

<p>"It's only when they walk through a completed apartment that they truly understand the position of the building," Rosenboom says.</p>

<p>"The views are jaw-dropping. Whether you're looking east over the ocean, across Surfers Paradise, along the river systems or out to the hinterland, every level offers something different but equally impressive."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=360215]</p>

<p>One of Chevron One's defining advantages is its location on the eastern side of Chevron Island on Stanhill Drive, a position which protects the views forever.</p>

<p>"There's only one row of houses between Chevron One and the water, and the height restrictions along the river means views from Chevron One can never be built out,"&nbsp;Rosenboom says.</p>

<p>While new apartment developments continue to emerge across the Gold Coast, Rosenboom says opportunities to secure a completed apartment with this level of outlook are becoming increasingly rare.</p>

<p>"The size of the site is something that would be incredibly difficult to replicate today," she says.</p>

<p>"That's allowed Chevron One to deliver the sort of amenity, open space and resident facilities that very few projects can offer. There are not many completed apartment buildings on the Gold Coast right now that can compete with the combination of scale, quality and amenity."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=68839]</p>

<p>There's around 2,000 sqm of amenity solely for the use of residents of Chevron One. Club One features a uniquely shaped swimming pool that mirrors the footprint of the building itself, set within a extensively landscaped gardens. There's also an indoor pool and spa, a fully equipped gym with a Pilates room, a yoga garden, a bookable private dining area and lounge that can host up to 30 people, and a 24-hour concierge service.</p>

<p>As for the buyers, Rosenboom is fielding enquiry from everywhere: Sydneysiders and Melburnians looking at the new and off-the-plan market following the changes in the Federal Budget, as well as those looking to relocate, through to South East Queenslanders seeking either a permanent home or a weekender bolthole.</p>

<p>"The Gold Coast lifestyle continues to resonate with people relocating from the southern states, and when they see the views and the quality of what's been delivered at Chevron One, it becomes very easy for them to understand the appeal," Rosenboom says.</p>

<p>A diverse mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments remain available, with each offering "something a little different", be it the orientation and views, configuration, or level, to suit a wide variety of buyers.</p>

<p>The remaining apartments are ready to inspect in person, by appointment.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6515]</p>


A decade in the making: Residents to move into Chevron One as construction wraps up

<p>A general rule of thumb in new apartment developments is that the penthouses get the rooftop.</p>

<p>It's a formula that's become commonplace across Australia's apartment market. Residents might have access to a pool, gym or barbecue facilities on a dedicated lower level, but the most desirable outdoor spaces are typically reserved for the highest-priced homes at the top of the building.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Property Group</a> has taken the opposite approach.</p>

<p>Rather than dedicating the rooftop to a handful of buyers, the Gold Coast developer has made it the centrepiece of its Flourish collection, creating expansive shared spaces from the best vantage point in the building.</p>

<p>The philosophy has reached its most ambitious expression at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-palm-beach-1150-1160-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> in Palm Beach, where two rooftop precincts connected by a skybridge will deliver one of the most extensive lifestyle offerings seen in a residential apartment project on the Gold Coast.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374053]</p>

<p>"We're seeing a clear move toward developments that offer more than just an apartment," Sherpa Group founder Christie Leet said.</p>

<p>"People want spaces that support how they actually live, whether that's working from home, staying active, or spending time with family and friends.</p>

<p>"That's where amenity becomes critical. It's not just about what's included, but how those spaces are designed to be used every day."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374052]</p>

<p>The breadth of amenity has already attracted buyers across multiple demographics. Younger first home buyers have been drawn to Soleira's one-bedroom apartments, a product rarely delivered in Palm Beach, while families have responded to practical inclusions such as the shallow children's pool adjoining the main lap pool and the extensive communal recreation areas.</p>

<p>Instead of a single rooftop, Soleira delivers two distinct lifestyle zones.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=372547]</p>

<p>The southern rooftop has been dedicated to wellness, featuring a gym, yoga and Pilates studio, work-from-home facilities, a wellness centre, spa, and hot and cold plunge pools.</p>

<p>The northern rooftop focuses on recreation and entertaining, incorporating a heated resort-style pool, private dining rooms, pizza ovens, barbecues, a golf simulator, children's recreation areas, and what is expected to be the Gold Coast's first rooftop basketball court, which will also double as a squash court.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374054]</p>

<p>Beyond the rooftops, Soleira will introduce 1,500 sqm of curated retail beneath the towers, creating one of Palm Beach's first genuinely mixed-use lifestyle precincts where cafés, restaurants and convenience retail become part of residents' everyday lives.</p>

<p>Sherpa has also retained management rights across the development, allowing it to oversee the long-term operation of the building through a 24-hour concierge model. The developer is also exploring additional revenue streams within the precinct aimed at helping offset ongoing body corporate costs for residents.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370962]</p>

<p>While Soleira is the largest project Sherpa has delivered, the rooftop-first philosophy has been evolving for several years.</p>

<p>It began with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Amargo</a>, the first project released under the Flourish brand. Rather than competing at the ultra-luxury end of the market with oversized half-floor and full-floor residences, Sherpa focused on creating lifestyle-driven apartments supported by resort-style shared spaces.</p>

<p>Amargo introduced more than 800 sqm of rooftop amenity, combining wellness facilities, heated pools, entertaining areas, cabanas, pizza ovens and private dining spaces into what was designed as an extension of residents' homes rather than a facility used only occasionally.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=146527 project_image_fid=366550]</p>

<p>That approach continued with Flourish Oasis, where the same amenity-led philosophy was refined into a more boutique development. Strong demand from Sherpa's growing VIP database saw much of the project sold before it reached the broader market, reinforcing buyer appetite for apartment communities centred around shared lifestyle experiences.</p>

<p>Flourish Amargo is slated for completion mid-way-through next year, with Oasis to be delivered by late 2027. Flourish Soleira is expected to complete in 2030.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]</p>


Sherpa takes amenity to the sky as Flourish Soleira captures booming Palm Beach demand

<p>As apartment living continues to evolve across Sydney's growth corridors, the quality and distribution of shared spaces is increasingly shaping how residents experience home. Rather than functioning as add-ons, amenities are being embedded into the daily rhythm of a building, supporting everything from quiet retreat to social interaction, often within a single vertical community.</p>

<p>At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/aeris-melrose-park-nursery-street-melrose-park-nsw-2114">Aeris</a> in Melrose Park, this approach is resolved through a layered amenity offering that unfolds from ground level through to its upper podium. Developed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sekisui-house-australia">Sekisui House Australia</a> in partnership with Hankyu Hanshin Properties, the project introduces 468 apartments across two towers and a mid-rise building, positioned at the highest point of the broader masterplan.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=359199]</p>

<p>The amenity experience begins at street level, where two courtyards sit within a landscaped setting that connects residents to the wider network of parks and green spaces. These green spaces are not isolated pockets but part of a wider pedestrian network that links Aeris to the surrounding <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/melrose-park-nsw-2114">Melrose Park</a> precinct, including Central Park, future schools, and the Town Centre opening in July 2026. The result is a transition that moves from public to private without abrupt boundaries, allowing residents to pass through shaded, tree-lined environments before reaching the building itself.</p>

<p>Moving upward, the focus shifts to the level five podium, where the primary communal facilities are concentrated. This space brings together a 16-metre swimming pool, outdoor seating areas, and a communal BBQ zone arranged to take advantage of elevated outlooks. Seating is positioned beneath pergolas, creating pockets of shade that extend the usability of the space throughout the day. The pool edge aligns with views toward the wider district, reinforcing the sense of elevation that defines the project’s positioning.</p>

<p>In the adjacent building, this is complemented by quieter, more contemplative spaces, including an outdoor cinema set within the same level. Positioned to operate primarily in the evening, it introduces a different tempo to the shared environment, shifting from daytime activity to after-hours use without requiring separate zones.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360299]</p>

<p>The podium also accommodates an intimate private resident gym. Located on the lower levels, it gives residents convenient access to fitness facilities without leaving the building.</p>

<p>Above, the elevated podium sky deck extends the amenity offering, providing additional open-air spaces with elevated outlooks across the surrounding landscape. While more restrained in program, this upper level reinforces the project’s vertical progression, from ground-level greenery to elevated outlook, allowing residents to move between distinct spatial conditions within a single address.</p>

<p>This distribution of amenities reflects a deliberate response to how residents use space across the day. Sekisui House Australia Sales and Marketing Director Peter Kalaf points to the role these shared areas play in shaping buyer demand. Aeris has been conceived as more than a collection of apartments, with the podium pool, gym and outdoor cinema forming part of a broader lifestyle offering that extends the home beyond each individual residence.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360300]</p>

<p>What distinguishes Aeris is not the inclusion of these elements individually, but how they are arranged in relation to one another. Active, social, and passive spaces are layered vertically rather than separated, allowing residents to choose between them without leaving the building or moving far from their apartment. This proximity supports both routine use, such as a morning swim or evening workout, and more occasional gatherings, whether around the BBQ area or within the cinema setting.</p>

<p>The amenity design also sits within a broader framework of connectivity across Melrose Park. The Melrose Park Town Centre, anchored by Coles and Dan Murphys, features a mix of retail, dining, health and lifestyle offerings, bringing everyday convenience closer to residents. By the end of the year, more than five hectares of parks and open space, equivalent to around seven football fields of green space on residents' doorstep, will further enhance the precinct, allowing the internal facilities at Aeris to operate as an extension of the wider neighbourhood rather than a substitute for it.</p>

<p>Construction at Aeris continues to gather momentum, with ground floor slabs expected to be completed in late 2026 before the first sections of the buildings begin to rise above ground.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=426]</p>


Elevated amenity anchors daily life at Aeris, Melrose Park

Boom

<html><body>
<div>The wealth effect from a multi-year Sydney property market boom has sent trend retail turnover, new motor vehicle sales, building activity and total employment in the Premier State surging to new highs in recent months. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's not hard to see why.<br><br>Over the three years to June 2015 the value of residential dwelling stock in the state has flamed up by nearly three quarters of a trillion dollars - massively boosting net household wealth in the process - and in turn leading to increased employment in the residential construction sector together with its associated multiplier effect.<br><br>The latest data from the ABS showed that the total value of residential dwelling stock in New South Wales has exploded by +$737 billion to nearly $2.3 trillion over the three years since March 2012.<br><br>However, increases in the value of dwelling stock have been by no means uniform across Australia as you can see in the first chart below.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/23/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/09/23/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Indeed, while Victoria (+$327 billion) and Queensland (+$123 billion) have recorded some solid gains over the last three years - which have contributed to the combined value of Australia's dwelling stock surpassing $5.75 trillion - the total value of stock has been declining in Western Australia and the Northern Territory for the past year.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/23/A2.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/09/23/A2.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Over the June 2015 quarter New South Wales (+$193 billion) and Victoria (+$65 billion) accounted for 95 per cent of the +$272 billion uplift in the total value of Australia's residential dwelling stock.<br><br>Note that although the ABS data series is not the most timely indicator, with the benefit of additional time to collate results it is likely to be the most accurate.</div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Residential indexes</span></strong><br><br><div>The latest figures released today by the ABS to Q2 2015 recorded an extraordinary boom in Sydney dwelling prices with prices exploding +8.9 per cent higher in the June quarter to be +18.9 per cent higher over the year.<br><br>Sydney has not seen quarterly gains of this magnitude for nearly three decades in percentage terms.</div>
<div>
<br>Solid gains for the quarter were also recorded in Melbourne (+4.2 per cent), Brisbane (+0.9 per cent) and Canberra (+0.8 per cent).</div>
<div>
<br>Elsewhere index moves for the quarter were subdued, or negative in the cases of Perth (-0.9 per cent) and Darwin (-0.8 per cent).</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/23/B1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/09/23/B1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>Since Q4 2008 Sydney's accelerating dwelling prices have blown up the index to be +77.3 per cent higher, with Melbourne a distant second at +46.8 per cent.</span><br><br><span>At the bottom end of the scale come the southern state capitals of Hobart (+12.6 per cent) and Adelaide (+15.9 per cent). </span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/23/A5.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/09/23/A5.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>The mean price of a residential dwelling as at June 2015 increased to $604,700 in Australia having jumped by some $26,200 in the quarter, with those gains having been overwhelmingly driven by Sydney (+$63,400 to $777,400) and Melbourne (+$24,300 to $605,000).</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/23/A4.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/09/23/A4.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Established houses outperform</span></strong><br><div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">ABS data now exists back to September 2003 which allows us to compare the relative performance of established houses versus attached dwellings.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">As you can see below, on average established houses (+89 per cent since Q3 2003) have outperformed attached dwellings (+73 per cent) over the past dozen years. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">These figures equate to compounding annual price growth of +5.4 per cent for established houses and +4.6 per cent for attached dwellings since Q3 2003.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2015/09/23/A7.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2015/09/23/A7.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">
<div>Of course, averages mask any number of sub-trends, and it is also true that initial rental yields on townhouses, units and apartments can often be at least 1 per cent higher than those achievable from established houses in equivalent locations.<br><br>It may also be the case that going forward attached dwellings might perform comparatively well in the denser capital cities where the affordability of established housing is becoming increasingly prohibitive.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Nevertheless, the above chart does hint towards land value and scarcity value as being two of the key underlying drivers of dwelling price growth.</div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Supply response</span></strong><br><br><div>The preliminary figures for Q2 2015 recorded an estimated 9,528,300 dwellings in Australia, a reasonably solid increase of +38,400 dwellings for the June quarter and +161,500 for the past year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Unfortunately the ABS could provide no preliminary estimate for the number of New South Wales dwellings this quarter.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Using projections of historic data it seems likely that assuming the data is accurate the total stock of dwellings in the Premier State has increa<span>sed by close to <span>~</span>120,000 units since September 2011, with the population of the state having increased by a<span>n estimated <span>~</span>375,000 over the same time horizon. </span></span>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In other words, despite an uplift in both home starts and dwelling completions since FY2012, New South Wales evidently has some way to go before the market becomes saturated with new builds.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/23/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/09/23/A3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>It was announced this week that the New South Wales Government will release some 7,700 hectares of land for the construction of up to 35.000 new homes to the south of Campbelltown.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It is dubious, however, just how much impact newly constructed dwellings located 70 kilometres from the centre of Sydney will have on established dwellings in the inner suburban market given the poor level of substitutability with fringe housing. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</body></html>

pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

NSW dwelling stock value explodes: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p>A major Sydney newspaper headline proclaimed this week that “Sydney’s property market boom is finally over but house prices remain high”.</p>
<p>Well, exactly. Therein lies the problem.</p>
<p>The article went on to say: “Sydney’s housing boom has finally reached its peak, but don’t expect house prices to start falling any time soon.”</p>
<p>In fact, Hotspotting research indicates the Sydney market reached its peak in the December quarter last year and sales activity has been on a gradual decline since then.</p>
<p>It’s taken the market and the media more than half a year to realise what’s happening.</p>
<p>Analysts, economists, commentators and writers rely on movements in median prices to inform their view of property markets. The problem is that median price data is at least six months behind the game.</p>
<p>The alleged median price for Sydney is still rising, even though the number of sales has been fading, auction clearance rates have been falling and professionals at the coalface have been reporting an easing of competition and evaporation of the boom-time heat.</p>
<p>The market is clearly heading south but, according to the price data much-beloved by almost everyone, it’s still rising.</p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Market watchers should be observing sales activity. The number of sales happening in markets provide a much more accurate and timely picture of market trends – and they can predict price movements.</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>This is the basis of the Price Predictor Index published quarterly by hotspotting.com.au. We chart sales volumes in every suburb and town in the nation.</p>
<p>And this is what it’s telling us:-</p>
<ul>
<li>The number of Sydney growth suburbs is one-third of the number six months ago.</li>
<li>Regional New South Wales is rising and has twice as many growth markets as Sydney does.</li>
<li>Adelaide and Brisbane have both overtaken Sydney and continue to rise (but you won’t know it if you rely on median price data).</li>
<li>Melbourne has faded a little but remains more buoyant than Sydney.</li>
<li>Regional Queensland has almost as many growth markets as Brisbane does.</li>
<li>The strongest market region in the nation, now, is South East Queensland, with Brisbane, the Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast all busy.</li>
<li>There are also markets in serious decline and they’re all locations that previously rose with the resources boom and were oversupplied by over-zealous developers.</li>
</ul>
<p>The sales volumes data shows that the pecking order in Australian real estate is changing – but it won’t show up in the median price growth figures any time soon.</p>
<p><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
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The Sydney market is clearly heading south: Terry Ryder

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<em>Residex</em> released its data and property market update to 31 July which showed house growth over the quarter accelerate to "an astonishing" 7.6% to be 21.2% higher over the year.</div>
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<div>As the below <em>Residex</em> graphic shows capital growth in Sydney has continued to outstrip by far that seen in other capital cities where average growth for the quarter was under 1%.</div>
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<div>Sydney median house prices have now blasted well past $1 million at $1,017,500</div>
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<br>Regional house price growth was relatively soft across all states and territories on this index. </div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/08/31/Resi1.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a></div>
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<div><img src="/images/2015/08/31/Resi1.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<div>Sydney unit prices also recorded very strong 6.6 per cent quarterly growth to be 15.2 per cent higher over the year.</div>
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<em>Residex</em> has also recorded very strong growth in rents for houses and units over the past twelve months.</div>
<br><span>On the other hand median prices contracted in resources capitals Perth and Darwin over the past year.</span>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/08/31/Table_1_July_Stats_Summary2.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
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<div>These<em> Residex </em>updates are well worth a read.</div>
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<div>Discussed in this newsletter is how the increasing population density of Sydney may have contributed to outperforming capital growth.</div>
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<em>Residex</em> considers that strong captial growth in Sydney could continue for the next few quarters before stabilising at a high level.</div>
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<div>
<div>These<em> Residex </em>updates are well worth a read.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Discussed in this newsletter is how the increasing population density of Sydney may have contributed to outperforming capital growth.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<em>Residex</em> considers that strong captial growth in Sydney could continue for the next few quarters before stabilising at a high level.</div>
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<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
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Astonishing Sydney boom accelerates: Pete Wargent

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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Aussie Home Loans chief John Symond has forecast that Sydney's booming residential property market was nearing its peak.</span></p>
<p><span>But he quickly added he thinks "there's buckley's chance of a price correction."</span></p>
<p><span>He told the 7th annual Citi Australia &amp; New Zealand investment conference yesterday he could see Sydney markets "getting trickier suburb by suburb."</span></p>
<p><span>"But the good news is that steam is coming out of the market and sanity's coming in.</span></p>
<p><span>"I think we're going to see a more flat market," he said.</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p><span>"Hot areas will still see a seven to nine percent gain, in other areas you might see a three to four percent, some other areas a five percent drop," he anticipated.</span></p>
<p><span>"You have to do your homework."</span></p>
<p><span>His comments came as the CBA joined Westpac in increasing home loan interest rates with CBA’s rate increase of 0.15% pushing up its package loan rate to 5.10%.</span></p>
<p><span>The veteran mortgage broker expected all four big banks would raise rates in response to APRA’s capital requirements.</span></p>
<p><span>"If all four come out I think that will force the Reserve Bank to drop rates another 25 bps, so that consumers feel their real interest rates haven't gone up," he said.</span></p>
<p><span>But with big banks poaching customers from other big banks to get some loan book growth, he said Australian borrowers "have never had it better in my 40 years.</span></p>
<p><span>Except for Sydney and Melbourne, the rest of Australia had not had the property boom, he said. </span></p>
<p><span>"You've got to remember between 2002 and 2012, Sydney was the worst-performing capital city in Australia - 2.2% growth per annum before inflation. </span></p>
<p><span>"All of a sudden, we're seeing 15-18% growth in the last three years driven by lowest interest rates in Australia's history and a surge in foreign demand, particularly Chinese.</span></p>
<p><span>"They are driving a lot of the prices in places like Sydney or Melbourne.</span></p>
<p><span>He said for a collapse there either had to be a sharp increase in interest rates and "there's no hope of that happening for some years, or unemployment picking up."</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">"I think we are approaching the top of the market.</span></p>
<p><span>"Different suburbs, in my opinion, will perform differently going forward," he said, adding there was a risk in off the plan were too many new apartments hit the market.</span></p>
<p><span>"Prices are levelling out and in certain suburbs I can see prices dipping a bit but certainly no collapse in prices because the appetite to own real estate is so great in this country."</span></p>
<p><span>"I think the price increases will abate, I think, by the middle of next year when it will be a buyer's market," he said.</span></p>
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Sydney's booming residential property market was nearing peak: John Symond 

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<p><span>The doomsayer economist Steve Keen - who predicted in 2008 that Sydney property prices would collapse by 40% - pocketed $540,000 when, with global financial crisis recessionary fears uppermost in his mind, he sold his Surry Hills apartment.</span></p>
<p><span>An optimistic estimate some seven years on of his two-bedroom Chalmers Street unit calculates its current resale price as potentially nearing $1.1 million. Close to doubling and Dr Keen has not benefited a cent.</span></p>
<p><span>I was reminded of the Keen prophesy and ramifications for him, and those who likewise sold or sat out, when there was a flurry of forecasts issued this week from milder economists on the immediate future of the property market.</span></p>
<p><span>They were forecasting not just an end - or softening - to the property boom, but rather boldly putting a figure on the size of the price fall.</span></p>
<p><span>The biggest mooted was a 7.5% drop over the next two years from Macquarie Research analyst James McIntyre in a report titled Aussie Macro Outlook: Population &amp; Housing - Perishable.</span></p>
<p><span>Any such fall would be about half the actual gain of just this year in Sydney, so the sky ain't falling in, though for those capital cities already going backwards, such pain might be more harmful. </span></p>
<p><span>Ofcourse an overall national 7.5% decline means there has to be cities with a greater decline, and Sydney being the unrivalled engine room for growth for the past three years, would be presumably ripe for that under the Macquarie Research scenario. Not that there was much detail.</span></p>
<p><span>Brian White, the head of the Ray White group, says he hasn't been convinced by the logic of the three forecasts from Macquarie, Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Credit Suisse, but senses that they might have a self fulfulling outcome given the banks are well credentialed. </span></p>
<p><span>"I don't crave for a boom," Brian White said yesterday.</span></p>
<p><span>Indeed few want the 15% plus annualised price growth of Sydney to continue into its fourth year, and anyway as regulatory measures currently conspire, it will not likely be sustainable. </span></p>
<p><span>However as the Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens noted there have been crazy prices, and the record $6.055 million Chatswood sale took the last weekend's crazy prize.  </span></p>
<p><span>After almost a decade of dawdling, Sydney has so many varying factors that have helped keep the many property markets strong in our resurgent recent times, and not just auction silliness.</span></p>
<p><span>Macquarie's warning on price momentum mostly related to an oversupply of apartments and slower than expected population growth.</span></p>
<p><span>Yes Sydney has plenty of apartments in the pipeline, but its population growth is running at above average.</span></p>
<p><span>There are so many mini-markets within Sydney and NSW that even amid the so-called bubble conditions not all property are in the same rising (or falling) boat. Indeed recently a $3.6 million Paddington home sold for the same price as its 2008 sale, having overpaid it seems back then, so much still rests on the individual circumstance of how reckless the purchase price was.</span></p>
<p><span>It’s also way too simplistic to say the entire property market will go this way or that.</span></p>
<p><span>And with home loans at historic lows it is hard to envisage the market heading backwards in a hurry. Sure there will be pauses, procrastinations, problems... and plenty of mixed messages sometimes juxtaposed in the same day's reportage.</span></p>
<p><span>After the now London-based academic Steve Keen made the mother of all housing crash predictions, he was sometimes referred to as the world’s scariest economist. </span></p>
<p><span>He lost a public bet with then Macquarie Bank economist, Rory Robertson, over the big call which resulted in Keen having to walk in 2010 from Canberra to Mt. Kosciuszko wearing a T-shirt that read: “I was hopelessly wrong on house prices”.</span></p>
<p><span>If people had listened and then acted on his genuine sentiment, they would have lost money from the subsequent house and sharemarket price surge.</span></p>
<p><span>One day he or others who make such forecasts might be right but economics assumptions are not just not mathematical or scientific desktop calculations — but need to mixed in with the social science of actual human behaviour.</span></p>
<p><span>So this week's forecasts will eventually look dumb or smart, but most likely forgotten as by then there'll be a whole raft of newer forecasts to take onboard.</span></p>
<p><span>Just be very prepared for all eventualities.</span></p>
<p><span>What worries me most is that since there's been no recession since the early 1990s we have a generation or so without any deep knowledge of being at the mercy of the market.</span></p>
<p><em>This article was first published in the Saturday Daily Telegraph.</em></p>
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Property price forecasts don't have that doomsayer outlook, but be prepared for any eventuality

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<p><span>Even the RBA is worried about it. In a key speech, delivered this week, RBA Governor, Glenn Stevens, noted that 'perhaps trend output growth is lower than the 3% or 3.25% we have assumed for many years'. </span></p>
<p><span>Our own estimates suggest it could be closer to 2.50-2.75%. In particular, productivity growth has slowed as the resources boom gave policymakers less impetus for reform. If the 'new normal' is, indeed, as low as we estimate, Australia will have lost over two years of possible growth by 2030. Policymakers should focus on tax and regulatory reform as well as investment in infrastructure if Australia is to be able to grow at its previous trend rates. </span></p>
<p><span>Implications</span></p>
<p><span>This story is not new. Our estimates from early 2014 suggested that Australia's potential growth rate could by then have already fallen to 'around 2.8%' (see Downunder digest: Australia's lowered potential, 22 January 2014). We recently re-ran our models and, if anything, the numbers look a little worse. In our recent report we showed that Australia's new potential growth rate could be 2.50-2.75%.</span></p>
<p><span>The key contributor to lower potential growth is a slowdown in productivity growth. Part of this has reflected the direct effect of the mining boom. When mining investment was ramping up, lots of labour and capital were used, but there was little measured output. Now that export volumes are ramping up, mining sector productivity is rising. But overall productivity is still sluggish, suggesting there are other (maybe deeper) factors at work.</span></p>
<p><span>A key problem is that the resources boom itself discouraged policymakers from reform. Blessed with income growth from rising commodity prices, policymakers saw fewer reasons to focus on reform. We have long described this as the 'curse' of the resources boom. </span></p>
<p><span>For the RBA lower potential growth has a number of implications. First, part of the RBA's role is to ensure monetary policy will contribute to 'the economic prosperity and welfare of the people of Australia'. If trend growth is slower than it used to be, there is less economy to share around. If potential is now 2.50-2.75%, not 3.00-3.25%, by our estimates the economy would be 7.5% smaller than it could be by 2030. That's a loss of over two years of growth. Unfortunately, there is little the central bank can do about this. Monetary policy can manage the cycle and affect demand, but has little effect on the supply potential of the economy.</span></p>
<p><span>Second, if potential is now 2.50-2.75%, the Q1 GDP growth rate of 2.3% y-o-y, is not far from trend. This helps to explain why the unemployment rate is already steadying. It also helps explain why underlying inflation is just below the middle of the target band, at 2.3% y-o-y, rather than further below it. If GDP were actually growing a percentage point slower than its trend, it would be surprising that underlying inflation was only 0.2ppts below the mid-point of the target band.</span></p>
<p><span>Third, if potential is lower, then the RBA may have less room to move. In this world, only a modest pick-up in growth could be expected to put upward pressure on inflation. </span></p>
<p><span>Overall, it would somewhat disappointing if Australia's potential growth rate has fallen permanently, particularly if lack of reform is the cause. We remain of the view that Australia has significant opportunities to grow its economy, as it is still tied to the fastest growing region in the world, Asia. The challenge is to embrace these opportunities. Policymakers should focus on tax and regulatory reform as well as investment in infrastructure if Australia is to be able to grow at close to its previous trend rates. </span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/07/23/Screen%20Shot%202015-07-23%20at%2010.07.59%20AM.png" target="_blank" style="line-height: 1.3em;">Click to enlarge</a></p>
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<p><span><em><a href="https://www.about.hsbc.com.au/hsbc-in-australia/management-team" target="_blank">PAUL BLOXHAM</a> IS CHIEF ECONOMIST (AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND) FOR HSBC. </em> </span></p>
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RBA worried about output growth assumption: HSBC's Paul Bloxham

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<p><span>Some 6.7% of resold homes across Perth in the March 2015 quarter were sold for less than the previous purchased price.</span></p>
<p><span>The compared to 5.5% the previous quarter and 4.4% a year earlier, according the CoreLogic RP Data pain gain report. </span></p>
<p><span>The 6.7% of resales at a loss is the highest for the city since February 2013. </span></p>
<p><span>The East Fremantle and Peppermint Grove council areas recorded no resales at a loss over the quarter while Belmont (1.7%) and Gosnells recorded less than 2% at a loss. </span></p>
<p><span>But the highest proportion of loss-making resales occurred in the Perth (23.8%), Cottesloe (22.2%) and Mandurah (18.6%) council areas. </span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/06/23/700_pain7.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
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