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Melbourne’s apartment market entered 2026 with renewed momentum, but the recovery is uneven, policy-driven, and increasingly shaped by constrained supply.

According to the RPM Apartments &amp; Townhomes Market Report (April 2026), apartments have begun to outperform detached housing on key metrics,yet that performance is occurring against a backdrop of falling approvals and a tightening development pipeline.

At the end of 2025, Melbourne unit values reached a three-year high of $656,500, recording quarterly growth of two per cent. That figure edged ahead of the 1.8 per cent growth recorded in the house market over the same period, marking a notable shift in relative performance. While modest in absolute terms, the outperformance is significant given the sustained dominance of houses through much of the previous cycle.

This shift has been driven in large part by policy. The federal government’s expanded five per cent Deposit Scheme has had a disproportionate impact on apartment demand, particularly in Melbourne where the $950,000 price cap captures a large share of medium- and high-density stock.

As RPM notes, the scheme “heavily favours medium and high-density dwellings,” effectively accelerating demand in the apartment sector.

The impact is most visible in buyer activity. Victoria recorded more than 43,000 new housing loans in Q4 2025, the highest quarterly volume since mid-2022 and one of the strongest results in over a decade. This lift was broad-based across all buyer types, with first home buyers, owner-occupiers and investors all returning to the market with greater confidence.

This surge in demand has flowed directly into apartment pricing, particularly in Melbourne’s middle and outer rings. Middle-ring unit values reached approximately $757,500, a four-year high, while outer-ring units climbed to a record $650,000. Quarterly growth of 2.9 per cent and 2.5 per cent respectively significantly outpaced both the inner ring (0.8 per cent) and the broader house market.

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<img alt="RPM" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="4628dde5-ad63-4b03-b18e-77d0f750e2aa" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-24%20at%209.23.32%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=ig6mqc7Oz7UaszRuzULrGtLPUxGf4NJC" />

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The divergence between apartments and houses is also being shaped by affordability. Detached housing remains out of reach for many buyers, pushing demand toward apartments as a more accessible entry point into well-located suburbs. This is particularly evident among first home buyers and downsizers, both of whom are increasingly prioritising location, amenity and lifestyle over land size.

At the same time, population growth continues to underpin demand. Victoria added more than 122,000 residents in the year to Q3 2025, with Melbourne attracting both overseas migrants and interstate movers, partly due to its relative affordability compared to other capitals.

&nbsp;

<img alt="Population" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="49e10567-a8b3-47c3-afbd-290f0bb62c49" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-24%20at%209.22.25%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=.2Drmko4TPh02X55JdF3mIC1EcG0ZfGl" />

However, the most critical factor shaping the apartment market is not demand, it is supply.

Apartment approvals across Greater Melbourne have fallen sharply, signalling a constrained pipeline of future stock. In Q4 2025, just 2,339 apartments were approved, down 20 per cent on the previous quarter and 47 per cent lower than the same period a year earlier. On an annual basis, 11,066 apartment approvals were recorded, an improvement on the previous year, but still well below medium- and long-term averages.

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This decline reflects a broader contraction cycle that has been underway since 2020. As RPM notes, “apartment approvals appear to be sliding back into a downward trend,” with developers increasingly focused on launching and completing existing projects rather than initiating new ones.

The reasons are well understood. Construction costs have risen more than 20 per cent since 2021, driven largely by labour shortages and material price escalation. At the same time, financing conditions have tightened, with lenders requiring higher contingencies and taking a more cautious approach to risk. Combined with recent interest rate rises, these factors have made feasibility more challenging, particularly for higher-density projects.

This dynamic is creating a disconnect in the market. Demand for apartments—particularly at the more affordable end—is strengthening, while the pipeline of new supply is weakening. In the short term, this may limit the number of new projects coming to market. Over the medium term, however, it is likely to support price resilience and potentially further outperformance relative to houses.

There are some signs of policy-driven supply response. The introduction of Victoria’s Mid-Rise Code, which streamlines approvals for four- to six-storey developments, is expected to improve delivery in well-serviced middle-ring locations. However, this is unlikely to materially offset the broader decline in apartment approvals in the near term.

Despite the positive momentum at the end of 2025, the outlook for 2026 has become more complex. Two interest rate rises early in the year have already impacted consumer confidence, while broader cost pressures, particularly energy and fuel, are feeding through to construction and development costs.

“Victoria’s built form market ended 2025 on a high, but early 2026 rate rises quickly reversed the momentum,” RPM notes.

The implication is that while apartments are currently outperforming houses, the trajectory of that outperformance will depend on how these competing forces evolve. Policy support and affordability are clearly working in favour of apartments, but constrained supply and rising costs are likely to shape the pace and nature of future growth.

What is increasingly clear is that apartments are playing a more central role in Melbourne’s housing market. As population growth continues and affordability pressures intensify, higher-density housing is becoming not just an alternative to detached homes, but a primary solution to the city’s housing needs.
</section>

Joel Robinson

Units lead Melbourne price growth as apartments outperform houses: RPM

Brunswick is set for some of its largest apartments ever delivered with the upcoming new development Frith &amp; Howarth, where the apartments are around 20 per cent larger than what has come before it in the sought-after suburb.

Developer Young Group focused its design on Frith &amp; Howarth around size and scale, but within a boutique building, to create a mini neighbourhood within the mid-rise development. There are just 24 apartments in the mid-rise building on Victoria Street, a short walk to Brunswick Station and the cafe and dining strip along Sydney Road.

“We spent hours comparing what’s currently on the market so we could offer genuine points of difference,” Young Group says, pointing to room sizing, storage, and functional planning as key drivers behind the design.

All of the two-bedroom apartments in the building have been snapped up, with just the large three- and four-bedroom apartments, with the biggest floorplans and best outlooks, remaining.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134317 project_image_fid=354139]

Apartments open directly into open-plan living zones where full-height glazing draws light deep into the apartment. Sliding doors extend the space outward to terraces, many oriented toward the adjacent park or back toward the city skyline.

Kitchens sit within this central space, anchored by sculptural island benches that reference the building’s faceted exterior language. Storage is integrated across multiple layers, overhead cabinetry, concealed joinery, and, in larger configurations, dedicated sculleries or butler’s pantries.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134317 project_image_fid=354137]

The penthouse is the largest ever offered in Brunswick. The penthouse measures nearly 400 sqm all-up, with 242 sqm of internal space complimented by a further 149 sqm of terraces.

It spans the whole top floor and has four bedrooms, four bathrooms, and parking for four cars.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134317 project_image_fid=354133]

Low maintenance resident amenity has been created in the form of a landscaped rooftop, complete with&nbsp;vegetable plots, outdoor cooking areas, and aflresco dining spaces, designed as a place for neighbours to gather outside of their homes.

“To enable connection with neighbours, generous rooftop gardens with communal spaces and outdoor cooking areas offer a chance to develop a sense of community,” says John Patrick, Principal of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/john-patrick-landscape-architects">John Patrick Landscape Architects</a>.&nbsp;

“Private open spaces with a selection of native and exotic plantings and gorgeous city views on the rooftop create a high-end aesthetic, with a low maintenance lifestyle. The perfect balance, so that residents can enjoy a serene living space.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134317 project_image_fid=354134]

Sustainability is embedded at both the building and apartment level. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/frith-howarth-288-290-victoria-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Frith &amp; Howarth</a> is one of only a small number of all-electric residential developments in Brunswick, supported by solar infrastructure, EV-ready parking, and high-performance glazing. These measures sit alongside less visible systems such as rainwater reuse and high-grade insulation, reducing long-term operational costs while maintaining consistent internal conditions.

Positioned within walking distance of Brunswick Station, Route 96 trams, and established retail along Sydney Road and Barkly Square, the development balances access to transport with proximity to open space, a combination that has become increasingly difficult to secure in inner-city sites.

“These exquisite homes are nestled in a culturally diverse neighbourhood, with parklands and nature right on your doorstep,” says Young Group.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134317]

Frith & Howarth to deliver Brunswick’s largest apartments

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/prince-parade-by-mirvac-brunswick-701-park-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Prince &amp; Parade</a> in Brunswick is entering its final stages of construction, with the removal of the project’s last tower crane and the unveiling of the building’s full façade marking a significant milestone ahead of completion this coming spring.

The Park Street development, designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bates-smart">Bates Smart</a>&nbsp;and Mirvac Design with landscaping by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jack-merlo">Jack Merlo</a>, is now largely structurally complete, with internal works progressing across the 169-apartment project opposite Princes Park.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/mirvac-construction">Mirvac Construction</a> Project Manager Sam Payne said the latest update reflects a transition from structure to refinement.

“Since our last update, all façade panels have been installed and the scaffolding and gantry has come down, unveiling the building in its full form for the very first time,” Payne said.

“A significant milestone was reached this month with the removal of our final tower crane, signalling the completion of major structural works and a pivotal step forward in the building’s transformation.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4802 project_image_fid=366856]

Apartments are now well advanced internally, with joinery completed to level eight and tiling to level six, alongside the delivery of a prototype apartment used to set the benchmark for the remaining residences.

This next phase coincides with the release of a completed furnished residence, styled by MCM House, and the introduction of private buyer tours, giving purchasers a clearer understanding of the finished product ahead of settlement.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/prince-parade-by-mirvac-brunswick-701-park-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Prince &amp; Parade</a> will comprise 169 one to four-bedroom apartments, with completion targeted for early spring. Interiors focus on natural materials and muted tones with two design schemes, while kitchens and bathrooms adopt a restrained palette anchored by stone, timber and textured finishes.

Bates Smart Director Jeffery Copolov said the project reflects a shared design direction centred on liveability and sustainability.

“Blending Mirvac and Bates Smart’s focus on wellness and sustainability, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/prince-parade-by-mirvac-brunswick-701-park-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Prince &amp; Parade</a> offers a new kind of conscious, elevated living in Melbourne’s inner north,” Copolov said.

<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/prince-parade-by-mirvac-brunswick-701-park-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Prince &amp; Parade</a> presents Mirvac's third parkside collaboration with&nbsp;<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/architects/bates-smart">Bates Smart</a>&nbsp;in Victoria.&nbsp;Their previous collaborations delivered two of the city’s landmark apartment buildings: The Melburnian opposite Kings Domain and The Eastbourne on Fitzroy Gardens.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4802 project_image_fid=366857]

A key focus of the development is its landscape-led amenity offering. The central courtyard, spanning around 600 sqm, will feature established trees and planting grown off-site, alongside communal lawns and seating areas designed for everyday use.

Development Manager James Gardner said the outdoor spaces are central to the project’s lifestyle positioning.

“<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/prince-parade-by-mirvac-brunswick-701-park-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Prince &amp; Parade</a> isn’t just a home, it’s a complete lifestyle offering, and the resident amenity is just one example of the elevated living experience the soon-to-be-complete building will be known for,” Gardner said.

The courtyard connects to a series of shared indoor and outdoor spaces, including a residents’ lounge, dining room, library and secondary west-facing garden area, designed as extensions of the apartments themselves.

Located directly opposite Princes Park and around four kilometres from the CBD, the development places residents within one of Melbourne’s most established inner-north precincts, with access to open space, transport and the retail and hospitality offerings of Brunswick and Carlton.

With façade works complete and landscaping and final finishes now underway, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/prince-parade-by-mirvac-brunswick-701-park-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Prince &amp; Parade</a> is moving into its most active construction phase, with permanent services and external works to be finalised in the coming months ahead of completion in spring.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4802]

Mirvac’s latest landmark, Prince & Parade Brunswick, enters final construction phase

Boutique Perth developer ADC has unveiled its latest project.

The developer, which focuses on bringing apartments to some of Perth's most premium inner-city and riverside suburbs, has launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/mos-lane-mosman-park-46-manning-street-mosman-park-wa-6012">Mos Lane</a>, 68 luxury apartments and townhouses in the heart of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mosman-park-wa-6012">Mosman Park</a>.

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Alongside the one-, two-, three- and four-bedroom apartments, the development will also include five two-level townhomes and two luxe penthouses. ADC is also introducing a significant retail offering for residents through Mos Lane Village, which will feature a wellness studio, fish and chips shop, barber, and florist, adding a layer of amenity not typically found in the predominantly residential Mosman Park area.

Construction has already commenced on the project, which sits just a short walk from the Swan River, Mosman Park Bowls Club, and Mosman Park Golf Course.

House Agency Directors Tom House and Lachlan McDonald say they are fielding the majority of buyer interest from local downsizers, as well as buyers with a long-standing affinity for Mosman Park.
</section>

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364591]

Mos Lane will comprise two buildings; Samson House and Manning House, which have been designed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/nelson-koo">Nelson + Koo</a>, an emerging design consultancy specialising in the masterplanning and design of mixed use places and spaces.

The two buildings adopt distinct architectural responses to their surroundings. Manning House references the strong roof forms of nearby homes, with floorplates oriented to maximise light and long-range views, while Samson House is organised around a central atrium designed to bring daylight deep into the building and create a greater sense of openness.

At ground level, the inclusion of five townhomes introduces a typology more commonly associated with Mosman Park’s established streets, each with private courtyards and direct frontage, offering a transition between traditional housing and apartment living.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364103]

Interiors have been led by Melbourne-based Hecker Guthrie, with an emphasis on practical, long-term liveability. Residences incorporate sculpted joinery, generous storage and flexible multi-purpose rooms that can adapt to changing household needs, whether for working from home, guest accommodation or additional living space.

Material selections draw on a restrained palette of textured stone, timber and neutral tones, with options for lighter or darker schemes. Detailing such as fluted glass, full-height joinery and integrated appliances is intended to balance functionality with a more refined residential finish.

Outdoor spaces are a consistent feature across the development, with balconies and terraces designed for dining and entertaining, and larger apartments incorporating outdoor kitchens. Orientation has been considered to allow residents to choose between morning or afternoon sun, while mature street trees and landscaped communal areas contribute to a softer streetscape.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364107]

Shared amenities are positioned to support both day-to-day convenience and occasional use. These include a private dining room with a caterer’s kitchen, alfresco entertaining areas, and a bookable guest suite for visiting friends and family. Additional practical features such as a resident workshop, storage facilities, car and pet wash areas, and concierge-style services for cleaning and dry-cleaning collection reflect a focus on usability.

Positioned between the Swan River and Cottesloe Beach, and within reach of schools such as Iona Presentation College and St Hilda’s Anglican School, the development is aimed at a broad buyer group, from downsizers seeking a lower-maintenance alternative to larger homes, through to local residents looking to remain in the area in a different housing format.

Mos Lane represents one of the more significant additions to Mosman Park’s limited pipeline, combining new housing supply with a village-style retail centre in a suburb where opportunities for large-scale redevelopment are relatively constrained.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=148957]

Living village precinct set for Mosman Park as ADC launches Mos Lane

An entity linked to I&amp;D Group Founder Ivan Filipović has filed plans for a new residential development at 188–202 Swan Street in Cremorne, targeting a prominent site within the tightly held Swan Street activity corridor.

The proposal seeks to redevelop the consolidated Swan Street landholding into a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/188-202-swan-street-cremorne-vic-3121">high-density mixed-use project</a>, replacing a series of existing commercial buildings with a significantly scaled residential outcome. The planning submission positions the development as a response to increasing demand for housing in well-connected inner-urban locations, particularly within established activity centres.

Plans outline the construction of a 14-storey building delivering 165 apartments above a four-level basement, alongside a ground-floor retail and commercial offering designed to activate the streetscape. A key feature of the scheme is a new north–south pedestrian link connecting Swan Street to Railway Place, intended to “enhance permeability and provide an active, publicly accessible connection through the site.”

<img alt="First Look: Plans lodged for Ivan Filipović-linked Cremorne apartment project on Swan Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7332a8f8-dd2b-483d-b86e-320658838c84" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/cremorne.png?VersionId=cXm8vAaRdHh.LpYVbecrRkjckgu9mtAF" />

The development will retain part of the existing built form at 198–200 Swan Street, while the remainder of the site will be cleared to accommodate the new structure. Basement levels will provide 196 car spaces and 113 bicycle spaces, with vehicle access from Railway Place. Communal amenity is distributed across the building, including a shared outdoor area on Level 1 and a rooftop terrace for residents.

Ground level uses include retail tenancies fronting Swan Street and the pedestrian link, a residential lobby, and a flexible commercial space positioned to support community-oriented uses. The planning report notes this space “could be offered as a flexible space within the development for community groups,” supporting short-term or longer-term occupancy arrangements.

<img alt="First Look: Plans lodged for Ivan Filipović-linked Cremorne apartment project on Swan Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8208bf7b-cc67-485d-ad0f-1d73a74c907f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/cremorne%20lane.png?VersionId=69ctjC0txXv0zCHy7qQUpJyGwvPAT7gw" />

The site sits within the Swan Street Major Activity Centre, surrounded by a mix of retail, hospitality, and emerging residential development, and directly opposite tram services along Swan Street. East Richmond Station is located to the south, providing strong rail connectivity, while the broader Cremorne precinct continues to evolve as a mixed-use hub.

I&amp;D Group, founded by Ivan Filipović, is regarded as one of Victoria’s largest formwork contractors, partnering with major construction firms across large-scale public and private developments. The Swan Street proposal signals a move into development-backed opportunities tied to strategic inner-city sites.

First Look: Plans lodged for Cremorne apartment project on Swan Street

Bis Shrapnel

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The upturn in demand for residential land in the major eastern state centres is expected to begin to peter out over 2017/18 as the new housing market faces emerging headwinds, according to leading industry analyst and economic forecaster, BIS Oxford Economics.
According to the company’s Outlook for Residential Land 2017 to 2022 report series, residential lot production in Sydney, Melbourne and South East Queensland is around its peak in this cycle and will begin to fall away. In contrast, demand for land in Adelaide and Perth has been weakening and will continue to soften.
However, BIS Oxford Economics senior manager and report series author, Angie Zigomanis, said that the forecast downturns in the eastern state centres are likely to be moderate. New supply in these markets has been more pronounced in the unit/apartment sector, with markets continuing to experience a deficiency of detached house stock that is likely to continue to underpin demand.
Nevertheless, new housing demand has still risen to high levels. Sydney is estimated to have recorded its highest level of residential land production over 2016/17. Lot production in Melbourne peaked in 2014/15 but has remained close to this peak in the subsequent two years. Similarly, the Brisbane, Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast markets have been experiencing a moderate upturn since 2013/14 after an extended period of weakness.
“Steady price growth in houses in the initial stages of the housing construction upturn improved land price affordability and shifted some demand from the established house market, to the new house and land market,” said Zigomanis.
“This not only encouraged a greater percentage of home purchasers to opt for a new house over an established one, but also established house owners to sell up and upgrade to a new, larger house.”
In contrast to the strength of the eastern state capitals, the Adelaide land market has softened considerably, in line with weak population growth and a subdued local economy. Lot production in 2016/17 was well below its peak and there are few key economic drivers on the horizon.
Meanwhile, the Perth market continues to struggle both in absorbing the declines in mining investment and in broadening its economic base. Migration and population growth have fallen to well below their pre- mining boom levels. Despite easing lot production, dwelling supply has remained well above underlying demand adding to a significant dwelling oversupply, which will weigh on any cyclical upturn in the coming years.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/12/7/lot-production-chart.jpg" alt="">
Lot production in the main east coast capital cities and the Gold and Sunshine Coasts has been underpinned by solid population growth and a housing deficiency, and has been facilitated by record- low interest rates that drove new house demand.
Zigomanis states that the rise in new housing activity is now easing some of the demand pressures in the market, while the deterioration of housing and land price affordability will impact demand for new houses and consequently limit the next round of lots produced.
“Most markets saw house price growth outpace land price growth through the early stages of the upturn, which improved the value proposition for a new house”, said Zigomanis. “That said, land prices have now largely caught up and this gap will have narrowed, making new housing less attractive.”
As a result, many cities are expected to see demand for land and lot production decline over 2017/18 and 2018/19.
Land production in Sydney was estimated at 11,300 lots in 2016/17; its highest level in the past 25 years. Although a sizeable dwelling deficiency is still estimated to be in place in Sydney, it is now being eroded by new dwelling supply. Meanwhile, the house and land price growth through the upturn has seen affordability diminish, as evidenced by rising net outflows of population from Sydney. This is expected to see lot production begin to ease back from 2017/18.
Record population growth has been the main driver of demand for new houses and land in Melbourne. Together with affordable land, this has also seen lot production sustained at record levels since 2014/15.
“However, there have been significant rises in land prices in Melbourne in 2017, and this has seen new house affordability deteriorate,” said Zigomanis. “While lot production is likely to remain high in 2017/18 as recent pre-sales of residential lots are delivered, the resultant weaker demand will cause lot production to fall away from 2018/19.”
After bottoming out at a 20-year low of 4,800 lots in 2012/13, the resultant undersupply in Brisbane initiated an upturn that has been supplemented by strengthening net interstate migration inflows, with an estimated 9,400 lots created in 2016/17. A further rise is forecast in 2017/18, before significant oversupply in the Brisbane apartment market plays through to demand for new housing.
The Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast markets have followed the lead of Brisbane. A weak market and emerging dwelling deficiency saw lot production rise from a low base in 2013/14 through to a peak in 2016/17. Both markets arguably benefit from migration from Brisbane, Sydney and, to an extent, Melbourne, as affordability becomes increasingly constrained in those cities.
Lot production in Adelaide has been more moderate than the eastern state centres. Low interest rates and modest house price growth has supported some buyer demand. However, slowing economic conditions and easing population growth are now weighing on the market.
Similarly, lot production in the Perth market is now falling after a peak in 2014/15. The decline in mining-related investment has caused net interstate migration to shift from an inflow to an escalating outflow, while overseas migration has fallen. Consequently, demand for new houses has slumped, impacting the land market.
Through the upturns in all markets, developers have sought to keep land affordable and maintain margins by steadily reducing the size of the lots sold. However, it appears that median lot sizes have stabilised in most cities in the past two-to-three years. This suggests there is a lower limit to what the market will absorb. Moreover, it makes the economics of development more challenging as rising costs cannot be met by further reductions to the size of lots.
An expected softening in house price growth over 2017/18 and 2018/19 is expected to play through to land prices, which in turn will make it more difficult for developers to maintain margins as construction costs continue to escalate. Together with recent solid rises in land prices making affordability more challenging, and strong construction alleviating some of the undersupply pressures, most markets are expected to experience an easing in lot production in the next two-to-three years.
Separately, changing lifestyle choices and affordability preferences have also seen greater demand for medium and high density dwellings, at the expense of new houses, across the country.
The downturn in new dwelling supply will eventually see a rising deficiency re-emerge in most markets. Together with an expected acceleration in economic growth by the turn of the decade, this will underpin rising demand through the next cycle. 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Emerging headwinds will dampen demand for new houses and land across the major centres: BIS

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Australia’s building market, a main driver of growth, is expected to decline over the next three years led by a drop in residential starts, says a new report by BIS Oxford Economics.
Residential starts are expected to fall 31 percent as key markets move into oversupply, according to the Building in Australia 2017-32 report.
Further, the BIS report says that the value of national building commencements peaked in 2015/16 at $107.3 billion (in constant 2014/15 prices), up 22 percent in real terms since the end of the resources investment boom in 2012/13. 
While a similar value of commencements is estimated for 2016/17, the report forecasts a cumulative 17 percent decline in the real value of commencements over the three years to 2019/20.
The report comes close on the heels of another BIS report that the muted retail industry will continue to struggle in the face of tough economic conditions and investment risks in the sector are higher. 
FIGURE 1: VALUE OF TOTAL BUILDING COMMENCEMENTS 
CONSTANT 2014/15 PRICES, $MILLIONS 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/10/BISFig1.png" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12.16px;">Click to enlarge</a>
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/10/BISFig1.png" alt="">
A soft economy, weak household income growth and subdued consumer spending will continue for some years, while Amazon’s entry will only add to the challenges to Australian retailers and shopping centres, says Retail Property Market 2017 to 2027. 
“The record breaking residential building boom is already turning, offsetting growth in starts for non-residential building through 2016/17,” said Adrian Hart, associate director of Construction, Maintenance and Mining at BIS Oxford Economics.
Residential building starts will decline sharply in the next two years, particularly in the investor-driven apartments segment, as supply catches up to underlying demand. 
BIS expects the total residential market to fall by around 31 percent over the next three years.
The decline will be even sharper for the number of private high density apartments getting underway nationally, being close to 50 percent.
FIGURE 2: NUMBER OF DWELLING COMMENCEMENTS 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/10/BISHousing2.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/10/BISHousing2.png" alt="">  
Figure 3: Dwelling Stock Deficiency, Thousands 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/10/BISHousing3.png" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12.16px;">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/10/BISHousing3.png" alt="">
“Overall the slump will be similar in percentage terms to the residential downturns in the mid-1990s and the introduction of the GST in 2000/01,” the report said.
The economic forecaster’s outlook for residential building activity is more bearish than that included in the 2017/18 Commonwealth Budget, as well as last week’s RBI statement during its rate decision announcement.
The central bank has kept rates at a record low of 1.50 percent for a year now.
In the statement, Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe said the “current high level of residential construction is forecast to be maintained for some time, before gradually easing”.
“It may not be as rosy as all that,” said Robert Mellor, managing director at BIS Oxford Economics.
“Our dwelling demand/supply analysis indicates that all states with the exception of Victoria and New South Wales are either in balance or oversupply,” said Hart.
Dwelling completions are ahead of underlying demand over the next two years, implying a national residential stock surplus by 2018/19 despite New South Wales still being undersupplied.
“While high density dwellings do take longer to complete than traditional detached dwellings, when the end comes it will be very swift,” said Mellor.
“The high proportion of investor activity is another risk factor as investor sentiment can turn quickly. Overall, we expect 2017/18 will be the peak in high density residential completions, but that part of the market will slump around 50 percent in the subsequent two years. By contrast, a milder decline is forecast for detached houses. The saving grace is that the floor in residential commencements is likely to be higher than in previous busts.” 
Commercial property, however is a different story.
The Building in Australia report forecasts the value of non-residential building commencements to rise further in 2017/18 – following a cumulative increase of 25 percent over the past two years. 
“Improved economic conditions along the eastern seaboard are driving new commercial and industrial developments, particularly in New South Wales and Victoria,” said Hart.
“Offices, retail and accommodation commencements have been very strong, although the latter two segments will run out of puff in coming years given the project pipeline and fundamental demand drivers. By contrast, education and health segments are poised for further growth in commencements given a range of large tertiary education and hospital projects about to get underway.” 
However, the total value of non-residential building commencements is expected to ease later this decade, joining the downturn in residential starts.
“Except for a few sub-segments, the current upswing in non-residential building commencements is unlikely to be sustained over the next few years,” said Hart.
Weaker prospects for growth in retail sales will see a narrower pipeline for retail projects, while a tripling in accommodation starts since 2012/13 may also push activity in this segment over the top, resulting in a correction, added Hart.
Barring offices, transport buildings (eg. railway stations and airport terminals), health and education, most other non-residential building segments are expected to experience flat or declining commencements activity over the remainder of the decade.
BIS said the looming downturn in building commencements would be a strong challenge to achieving the three per cent growth targets for the Australian economy outlined in the 2017/18 Federal Budget.
“The strong growth in building commencements since 2012/13 provided a welcome boost for the Australian economy at a time when resources-related investment and construction activity fell heavily,” said Hart.
“But with residential building activity in particular now set for a sharp decline – along with its multiplier impacts on industries such as construction, manufacturing and retail – the Australian economy will need new investment drivers to support growth and employment.”
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Residential building starts to plunge 31 percent in three years: BIS Oxford Economics

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There is no relief on the horizon for the muted retail industry due to tough economic conditions and investment risks in the sector are higher, according to forecaster BIS Oxford Economics’ latest report.
A soft economy, weak household income growth and subdued consumer spending will continue for some years, while Amazon’s entry will only add to the challenges to Australian retailers and shopping centres, says Retail Property Market 2017 to 2027. 
“While the spectre of large scale shop closures, declining retail employment and abandoned shopping centres that we see in the US is unlikely to be repeated to the same extent in Australia, the risks associated with retail property investment are arguably higher than at any time in the past,” it says. 
Returns are expected to vary significantly from centre to centre, while some will fail, it cautions. 
Report author Maria Lee observed that the retail environment remains challenging against the backdrop of a difficult economic transition—away from an economy underpinned by a resources boom and back to more broadly balanced growth. 
“This is proving to be a long, hard slog. We expect retail expenditure to remain muted for the next three years,” she said. 
Shopping centres will struggle to match the pace of aggregate turnover growth due to heightened competition from additional retail floorspace and the continued growth of online sales—now given fresh impetus by the expansion of Amazon. 
Other challenges in converting turnover growth to additional centre income include over-rented shops, high leasing incentives, poorly performing anchor tenants and pressure on retailer profit margins. 
In addition, changing consumer spending patterns means centres must constantly be reinvigorated — and this involves spending money, it concludes.
“We forecast shopping centre net income growth to barely keep pace with inflation over the next five years, with probably more downside than upside risks to those forecasts” says Lee. 
On a positive note, however, BIS Oxford Economics said retail property remains in high demand among investors, with the dollar value of transactions seemingly held back only by a lack of stock for sale. 
Meanwhile, existing owners are pumping large sums of money into (often defensive) refurbishment/expansion projects. Competition for assets is driving yield compression, thereby boosting centre values and total returns. Average yields for regional, sub-regional and neighbourhood centres are all below pre-GFC levels. 
“We can’t see much further yield firming from here. If anything, the main risk is in the opposite direction” said Lee. 
Putting income and yield forecasts together, BIS Oxford Economics forecasts modest IRRs of below 7% over a five-year investment horizon, with considerable variation from centre to centre. 
Some centres are at risk of losing anchor tenants and/or specialty retailers and will underperform. Even for stronger centres, Lee notes that “even experienced shopping centre managers may have trouble in dealing with what are arguably the toughest conditions yet in retail property investment.” 
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Retail property investment risks higher than ever: BIS Oxford Economics 

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Stricter regulation around lending and more levies on foreign buyers was likely to impact apartment demand in inner Sydney, according to BIS Oxford Economics.
Surging prices had also pushed yields to long-term lows, but this price growth is now slowing, the economic forecaster suggested. f
Foreign buyers still however prefer to invest in Australia given the stable political environment, while local investors still benefit from low interest rates, said BIS. 
It noted that while oversupply concerns had been voiced for Melbourne and Brisbane, Sydney’s new apartment supply had already peaked at 3,698 completions in 2015, falling to 2,521 last year, and it was likely to remain largely steady at 2352 in 2016-17.
Though demand is expected to be weaker ahead, new Sydney supply is set to surge over the three years to 2019-20, with completions averaging 4,650 apartments a year over the period.
About 2,800 units were already under construction, with other large projects locked in and pre-selling, the research said.
Occupier demand mainly came from three groups — students, particularly overseas, young adults in white-collar employment, and empty nesters. 
Vacancy rates have been tight for more than a decade, after falling below the balanced market rate of 3 per cent in inner Sydney in June 2005, as demand outstripped construction for much of this time, The Australian reported.
Vacancy rates also tightened to 1.7 per cent in February 2017 after rising to 2.6 per cent in June 2015. 
Meanwhile with price increases, yields on the median two-bedroom apartment dropped to an estimated 4.17 per cent at June 2017. The median two-bedroom unit rent in inner Sydney was an estimated $745 in June, with the median price at $930,000, said BIS.
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Apartment demand in inner Sydney likely to weaken as tougher regulation bites

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UK-based advisory firm Oxford Economics has acquired a controlling stake in leading Australian analytics and forecasting firm BIS Shrapnel for an undisclosed sum, which the former says will make it the largest independent economics research firm in the world. 
The new organisation will be named BIS Oxford Economics and will see the merger of BIS Shrapnel  with the Australian arm of Oxford Economics. BIS Shrapnel generally focuses on the building, construction, property and mining sectors.
“This investment by Oxford Economics sees the merging of BIS Shrapnel’s deep knowledge of the Australian and New Zealand economies with Oxford Economics’ detailed understanding of the global economy,” said Robert Mellor, managing director, BIS Oxford Economics.
The new firm will be better able to assess market trends and quantify the impacts for its clients at the global, national and city levels, said a media release.
“The acquisition brings together Oxford Economics’ rigorous global modelling and analytical framework with BIS Shrapnel’ expertise across the Australian economy, in particular in forecasting investment cycles,” said Adrian Cooper, chief executive officer and chief economist, Oxford Economics.
“This agreement expands the Oxford Economics Group to more than 300 staff globally, making it the largest independent economics research firm in the world, and allows us to support our clients in understanding economic trends and their impacts both domestically and globally.”
Highlighting this, Mellor added that “major political, social and economic events in nations abroad have profound global impacts – look no further than Brexit or Trump”.
The new entity will operate from BIS Shrapnel’s existing offices in Australia. Robert Mellor will lead BIS Oxford Economics, with Dr Frank Gelber to remain Chief Economist and Director.
All of BIS Shrapnel's staff will be retained.
 
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