Roseville is poised for a wave of new apartment development following the NSW Government's rezoning of land around Roseville Station under its Transport Oriented Development program.

The new planning controls have unlocked significant development potential within walking distance of the station, with a number of sites expected to be amalgamated and redeveloped in the coming years as developers seek to take advantage of the increased density allowances.

One of the more restrained developments in the precinct, and set among the first to be delivered having commenced well before the recent changes, is Hyecorp's Juliet. The boutique apartment project is already well under construction and remains on track to welcome residents by the end of the year, offering a markedly different proposition to many of the larger-scale developments now likely to emerge across the suburb.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278194]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/juliet-roseville-64-pacific-highway-roseville-nsw-2069">Juliet</a> will comprise just&nbsp;34 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments opposite Roseville Station. For Hyecorp, which has delivered projects across Sydney's Lower North Shore for more than three decades, Roseville presented a rare opportunity to address a growing gap in the market.

"<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/roseville-nsw-2069">Roseville</a> has long been one of the North Shore's most tightly held and desirable suburbs, offering a unique combination of village charm, established greenery, excellent transport connections, and proximity to some of Sydney's best schools and lifestyle amenities," Hyecorp said.

"We recognised a growing demand from local homeowners seeking to downsize without leaving the community they have built their lives around. The location presented a rare opportunity to create homes that cater specifically to that buyer profile."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278196]

The six-level development has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/pbd-architects">PBD Architects</a> as a collection of residences that feel more like homes than apartments. The brief centred generous floorplans, abundant natural light, quality finishes, and strong connections to outdoor space.

PBD Architects drew inspiration from Roseville's established garden suburb character, creating a building that sits comfortably within its surroundings rather than dominating them. The architecture incorporates natural materials, soft forms, layered landscaping, expansive balconies, and generous setbacks to strengthen the connection between residents and the suburb's leafy environment.

"The focus was on designing spacious, house-like residences for discerning owner-occupiers and downsizers who wanted to remain on the North Shore without compromising on comfort, privacy, or design," PBD said.&nbsp;

"Every apartment was to feel considered, timeless, and highly functional."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278195]

Inside, residences feature engineered timber flooring, stone kitchen benchtops and splashbacks, integrated Fisher &amp; Paykel appliances, ducted air conditioning, and large outdoor entertaining areas designed to take advantage of district and treetop views.

Residents will also have access to a rooftop barbecue and lounge area, alongside practical amenities including parcel lockers, EV charging capability, bicycle storage, a dog wash bay, and a basement car wash facility.

The majority of purchasers so far have been local owner-occupiers from Roseville, Lindfield, Chatswood, Killara, and the broader Upper North Shore, many of whom are transitioning from larger family homes.

"Buyers are looking for spacious, house-like apartments that allow them to downsize without feeling like they are sacrificing comfort or functionality," Hyecorp noted.

"They value large kitchens, generous living areas, ample storage, quality finishes, secure parking, lift access, and low-maintenance living."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278204]

Juliet sits directly opposite Roseville Train Station and within walking distance of Roseville Village, while Chatswood's retail and dining precinct is only minutes away. The development is also surrounded by some of Sydney's most established schools, including Roseville College, Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College, and Knox Grammar, as well as nearby parklands and golf courses.

Juliet is currently more than 75 per cent sold ahead of its anticipated completion in late 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7395]

Joel Robinson

Juliet to sit quietly amid Roseville apartment boom

Sherpa Property Group has unveiled the third instalment of its Flourish series, securing full approval for the two-tower, $500 million Flourish Soleira development in Palm Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-1150-1154-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> will rise from a prominent site in the commercial heart of Palm Beach, the long-time home of Cash Converters and a range of local retailers.

The project will introduce a new retail and dining precinct at ground level, beneath 286 apartments.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370959]

“We’re very committed to not only providing affordable residential offerings that are much needed in Palm Beach, but also delivering a vibrant new commercial heart that complements the extraordinary growth of the southern Gold Coast,” Sherpa Property Group founder Christie Leet said.

The development will sit under Sherpa's Flourish brand, which is aimed at providing a pathway into the beachside suburb for locals, first-home buyers and downsizers. In a move designed to assist first-home buyers entering the market, Sherpa has reserved all one and two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartments exclusively for eligible first-home buyers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370964]

“Our vision through Flourish is to create a vibrant retail and lifestyle focal point within the Palm Beach centre zone, delivering thriving communities underpinned by lifestyle-rich locations,” Leet said.

“So far, Flourish has been an incredible success, and we hope to carry this momentum as we progress the next two Flourish projects in Palm Beach.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=371430]

Located across 1150-1164 Gold Coast Highway and 3 Sixth Avenue, the development will comprise two towers. The northern tower will deliver 154 apartments, while the southern tower will add a further 132 residences, helping address ongoing demand for new apartments in the tightly held coastal suburb.

Flourish Soleira will also feature the most extensive rooftop amenity offering ever delivered in Palm Beach.

The two towers will be connected by a skybridge, with residents gaining access to a rooftop recreation deck featuring a full-width swimming pool, hot and cold plunge pools, wellness spaces, a gymnasium, private dining facilities, massage treatment rooms, barbecue areas, a basketball court, golf simulator, indoor and outdoor dining spaces, sun lounges and extensive landscaping.

LPS Group is expected to start construction later this year.

Sherpa is already well advanced on construction of its debut Flourish project, Flourish Amargo, located just around the corner from Soleira. Meanwhile, Flourish Oasis, positioned opposite Amargo, recently commenced construction and has nearly sold out its collection of 47 apartments.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]

Sherpa unveils $500m mixed-use Palm Beach precinct, Flourish Soleira

Are mortgage holders set to get a reprieve from the RBA in 2026?

Big Four bank NAB believes so. They are now expecting the next move from the RBA to be a cut, rather than a hike, which they had pencilled in for August. They are unsure of the timing of the cut however, they note in their latest&nbsp;NAB Economics RBA Watch.

NAB Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said recent data suggests the economy has lost momentum and the outlook for rates has shifted, noting that the broader economic backdrop has changed since earlier in the year.

“The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain," Dr Auld said.

"In February, growth was above trend, the economy was operating above capacity and there was uncertainty over the restrictiveness of rates. None of these conditions exist today,” she outlined.

Dr Auld said recent data pointed to softer momentum across the economy while acknowledging that at the same time, uncertainty remains a key feature of the outlook.

“Both Q1 GDP data and the NAB business survey suggest momentum in the economy has slowed, meaning that growth has likely peaked for the cycle. That said, we are cognisant there is still considerable uncertainty around the outlook, both with respect to activity and inflation.”

Dr Auld said inflation risks and labour market outcomes would be important to watch.

“On the prices side, we are still forecasting above target core inflation through to mid-2027. Margins will compress and weaker labour market outcomes are a risk.”

She said tighter financial conditions are expected to weigh on housing and activity.

“Tighter financial conditions will be reflected in a slowing in house price growth and housing credit growth. In summary, we have greater conviction that the next move in rates is down, but less conviction on the timing.”

Mortgage relief? NAB forecasts RBA rate cut, not hike, after softer economic conditions

A local downsizer has splashed $6.5 million on a penthouse in Perifa's Alex &amp; Willow development in Crows Nest. 
&nbsp; 
The purchaser sold their long-held family home in the area before embarking on a six-month search for the right apartment. After inspecting a range of options across the Lower North Shore, the buyer returned to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/alex-willow-crows-nest-82-90-alexander-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Alex &amp; Willow</a>. 
&nbsp; 
The buyer profile reflects the project’s broader purchaser mix. <a>Alex &amp; Willow</a> has attracted predominantly local downsizers looking to transition from larger homes without compromising on space or quality, alongside a smaller cohort of upsizers and investors drawn to the project’s location and design credentials. 
&nbsp; 
The milestone sale comes as the project, developed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/perifa">Perifa</a>&nbsp;and delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/versatile-made-construction">Versatile Construction</a>, both part of Versatile Group, reaches 60 per cent sold.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=371325] 
&nbsp; 
Eddie Mansour, Managing Partner of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/ray-white-projects">Ray White Projects</a>, said the result demonstrates not only a headline price but also depth of demand. 
&nbsp; 
“This is an exceptional outcome and a clear reflection of sustained buyer demand for premium, well-located downsizer product,” Mansour said.

“We’re seeing a consistent pattern of local homeowners selling family residences and reinvesting into high-quality apartments that allow them to remain within their community. Alex &amp; Willow has resonated strongly with this group because it offers genuine scale, thoughtful design and immediate proximity to the village.” 
&nbsp; 
The sale reflects a broader and consistent trend of local downsizers actively seeking high-quality, low-maintenance residences close to established village centres. Agents report that demand for this product type has remained resilient, particularly where developments offer a rare combination of scale, design quality and walkable amenity. 
&nbsp;&nbsp; 
Fabrizio Perilli, Managing Director of Perifa and Versatile Group, said the sale marks a defining moment for the project. 
&nbsp; 
“The penthouse sale is a strong endorsement of the quality we have delivered, alongside our partners, and the clear demand from local downsizers for premium, boutique residences in this location,” Perilli said.&nbsp; 
&nbsp; 
“Most importantly, we’re proud to see the Alex &amp; Willow community beginning to take shape. As we move closer to completion, we’re looking forward to welcoming residents and seeing the project come to life.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=338516] 
&nbsp; 
Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/nettletontribe">Nettleton Tribe</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/richards-stanisich">Richards Stanisich</a>, Alex &amp; Willow is a boutique collection of generously sized two- and three-bedroom residences in the heart of Crows Nest village.&nbsp;

Completion is slated for early 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6680]

Alex & Willow, Crows Nest penthouse sells off the plan for $6.5 million

Fresh from launching the first stage of its Wollongong precinct, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/keira-place-wollongong-120-122-smith-street-wollongong-nsw-2500">Keira Place</a>, builder-developer Urban Property Group has unveiled plans for the next phase of the masterplanned community.

Now on public exhibition through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority pathway is a State Significant Development Application for a further 657 homes on the prominent gateway site opposite Beaton Park.

The proposal comprises three buildings, including two build-to-sell towers rising 25 and 30 storeys, delivering 391 apartments, alongside a 12-storey co-living building with 266 residences, making it one of the largest co-living proposals currently planned in regional New South Wales.

Of the apartments proposed in the build-to-sell towers, the majority, 310, are two-bedroom dwellings. The balance comprises 44 one-bedroom apartments and 37 three-bedroom residences. Apartment sizes range from around 50 sqm for one-bedroom homes to approximately 90 sqm for three-bedroom apartments.

<img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="19347059-1612-41a0-9c74-b86a657237f8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%2010.02.18%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sWXnaCcA.cIC6N8YT1dg5pJ2e1V3Z6z7" />

The submission says the proposal has evolved significantly from its original Housing Delivery Authority application following extensive consultation with the State Design Review Panel and Wollongong City Council.

The final scheme has been designed to align with the emerging vision for the Flinders Street Precinct, an area identified by Council as a future high-density mixed-use neighbourhood capable of accommodating substantial housing growth close to transport, employment and community infrastructure.

According to the design report prepared by COX Architecture, the development aims to "deliver a built outcome consistent with the future character of the Wollongong CBD while responding to the site's unique constraints and opportunities."

"Our vision for the next phase of the site evolution in Wollongong is grounded in three design pillars that guide the design response: place, natural environment and celebration," COX said.

"Inspired by its surroundings and grounded in the stories of place on Wodi Wodi Country, the design proposal acknowledges the established character of its setting while creating a unique and timeless identity that sits harmoniously within it.

"The design proposal responds to its specific site conditions, acknowledging the vegetation, climate, wind conditions and solar access of the site."

The architecture responds directly to the site's position between Wollongong's urban core and its natural landscape setting.

COX identified views towards Mount Keira and the Illawarra Escarpment as defining features of the site, while the upper levels of the towers will also capture expansive views across the city and out to the Pacific Ocean.

The design team has positioned the tallest buildings closer to the rail corridor, where overshadowing impacts can be better managed while establishing a landmark built form on the northern approach into the city.

<img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="79580d5b-500c-4ebf-9629-797146a4a694" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%209.51.59%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=WbTB1EKSG.KDfsfz0F3wp1QVa2oCMGR5" />

Urban Property Group secured the 11,000 sqm Smith Street site in 2022 and has since progressed plans for the broader Keira Place precinct.

Construction recently commenced on the first stage of Keira Place, which will deliver 150 apartments across two residential buildings, including 27 affordable housing apartments and 18 specialist disability accommodation dwellings, alongside activated ground-floor retail and commercial space.

Urban Co-CEO Patrick Elias said the commencement of construction marked a significant milestone for Wollongong and reflected the developer's long-term commitment to regional cities.

"Today's groundbreaking is about turning approvals into homes and moving quickly to deliver much-needed housing in Wollongong's city centre," Elias said.

"Keira Place will provide a diverse mix of homes close to jobs, transport and services, while setting a high benchmark for quality, durability and consumer protection."

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/groundbreaking-marks-start-of-construction-at-keira-place-in-wollongong-cbd">Groundbreaking marks start of construction at Keira Place in Wollongong CBD</a>

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Urban Property Group unveils trio of towers for next stage of new Wollongong precinct, Keira Place

Bis Shrapnel

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The upturn in demand for residential land in the major eastern state centres is expected to begin to peter out over 2017/18 as the new housing market faces emerging headwinds, according to leading industry analyst and economic forecaster, BIS Oxford Economics.
According to the company’s Outlook for Residential Land 2017 to 2022 report series, residential lot production in Sydney, Melbourne and South East Queensland is around its peak in this cycle and will begin to fall away. In contrast, demand for land in Adelaide and Perth has been weakening and will continue to soften.
However, BIS Oxford Economics senior manager and report series author, Angie Zigomanis, said that the forecast downturns in the eastern state centres are likely to be moderate. New supply in these markets has been more pronounced in the unit/apartment sector, with markets continuing to experience a deficiency of detached house stock that is likely to continue to underpin demand.
Nevertheless, new housing demand has still risen to high levels. Sydney is estimated to have recorded its highest level of residential land production over 2016/17. Lot production in Melbourne peaked in 2014/15 but has remained close to this peak in the subsequent two years. Similarly, the Brisbane, Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast markets have been experiencing a moderate upturn since 2013/14 after an extended period of weakness.
“Steady price growth in houses in the initial stages of the housing construction upturn improved land price affordability and shifted some demand from the established house market, to the new house and land market,” said Zigomanis.
“This not only encouraged a greater percentage of home purchasers to opt for a new house over an established one, but also established house owners to sell up and upgrade to a new, larger house.”
In contrast to the strength of the eastern state capitals, the Adelaide land market has softened considerably, in line with weak population growth and a subdued local economy. Lot production in 2016/17 was well below its peak and there are few key economic drivers on the horizon.
Meanwhile, the Perth market continues to struggle both in absorbing the declines in mining investment and in broadening its economic base. Migration and population growth have fallen to well below their pre- mining boom levels. Despite easing lot production, dwelling supply has remained well above underlying demand adding to a significant dwelling oversupply, which will weigh on any cyclical upturn in the coming years.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/12/7/lot-production-chart.jpg" alt="">
Lot production in the main east coast capital cities and the Gold and Sunshine Coasts has been underpinned by solid population growth and a housing deficiency, and has been facilitated by record- low interest rates that drove new house demand.
Zigomanis states that the rise in new housing activity is now easing some of the demand pressures in the market, while the deterioration of housing and land price affordability will impact demand for new houses and consequently limit the next round of lots produced.
“Most markets saw house price growth outpace land price growth through the early stages of the upturn, which improved the value proposition for a new house”, said Zigomanis. “That said, land prices have now largely caught up and this gap will have narrowed, making new housing less attractive.”
As a result, many cities are expected to see demand for land and lot production decline over 2017/18 and 2018/19.
Land production in Sydney was estimated at 11,300 lots in 2016/17; its highest level in the past 25 years. Although a sizeable dwelling deficiency is still estimated to be in place in Sydney, it is now being eroded by new dwelling supply. Meanwhile, the house and land price growth through the upturn has seen affordability diminish, as evidenced by rising net outflows of population from Sydney. This is expected to see lot production begin to ease back from 2017/18.
Record population growth has been the main driver of demand for new houses and land in Melbourne. Together with affordable land, this has also seen lot production sustained at record levels since 2014/15.
“However, there have been significant rises in land prices in Melbourne in 2017, and this has seen new house affordability deteriorate,” said Zigomanis. “While lot production is likely to remain high in 2017/18 as recent pre-sales of residential lots are delivered, the resultant weaker demand will cause lot production to fall away from 2018/19.”
After bottoming out at a 20-year low of 4,800 lots in 2012/13, the resultant undersupply in Brisbane initiated an upturn that has been supplemented by strengthening net interstate migration inflows, with an estimated 9,400 lots created in 2016/17. A further rise is forecast in 2017/18, before significant oversupply in the Brisbane apartment market plays through to demand for new housing.
The Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast markets have followed the lead of Brisbane. A weak market and emerging dwelling deficiency saw lot production rise from a low base in 2013/14 through to a peak in 2016/17. Both markets arguably benefit from migration from Brisbane, Sydney and, to an extent, Melbourne, as affordability becomes increasingly constrained in those cities.
Lot production in Adelaide has been more moderate than the eastern state centres. Low interest rates and modest house price growth has supported some buyer demand. However, slowing economic conditions and easing population growth are now weighing on the market.
Similarly, lot production in the Perth market is now falling after a peak in 2014/15. The decline in mining-related investment has caused net interstate migration to shift from an inflow to an escalating outflow, while overseas migration has fallen. Consequently, demand for new houses has slumped, impacting the land market.
Through the upturns in all markets, developers have sought to keep land affordable and maintain margins by steadily reducing the size of the lots sold. However, it appears that median lot sizes have stabilised in most cities in the past two-to-three years. This suggests there is a lower limit to what the market will absorb. Moreover, it makes the economics of development more challenging as rising costs cannot be met by further reductions to the size of lots.
An expected softening in house price growth over 2017/18 and 2018/19 is expected to play through to land prices, which in turn will make it more difficult for developers to maintain margins as construction costs continue to escalate. Together with recent solid rises in land prices making affordability more challenging, and strong construction alleviating some of the undersupply pressures, most markets are expected to experience an easing in lot production in the next two-to-three years.
Separately, changing lifestyle choices and affordability preferences have also seen greater demand for medium and high density dwellings, at the expense of new houses, across the country.
The downturn in new dwelling supply will eventually see a rising deficiency re-emerge in most markets. Together with an expected acceleration in economic growth by the turn of the decade, this will underpin rising demand through the next cycle. 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Emerging headwinds will dampen demand for new houses and land across the major centres: BIS

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Australia’s building market, a main driver of growth, is expected to decline over the next three years led by a drop in residential starts, says a new report by BIS Oxford Economics.
Residential starts are expected to fall 31 percent as key markets move into oversupply, according to the Building in Australia 2017-32 report.
Further, the BIS report says that the value of national building commencements peaked in 2015/16 at $107.3 billion (in constant 2014/15 prices), up 22 percent in real terms since the end of the resources investment boom in 2012/13. 
While a similar value of commencements is estimated for 2016/17, the report forecasts a cumulative 17 percent decline in the real value of commencements over the three years to 2019/20.
The report comes close on the heels of another BIS report that the muted retail industry will continue to struggle in the face of tough economic conditions and investment risks in the sector are higher. 
FIGURE 1: VALUE OF TOTAL BUILDING COMMENCEMENTS 
CONSTANT 2014/15 PRICES, $MILLIONS 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/10/BISFig1.png" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12.16px;">Click to enlarge</a>
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/10/BISFig1.png" alt="">
A soft economy, weak household income growth and subdued consumer spending will continue for some years, while Amazon’s entry will only add to the challenges to Australian retailers and shopping centres, says Retail Property Market 2017 to 2027. 
“The record breaking residential building boom is already turning, offsetting growth in starts for non-residential building through 2016/17,” said Adrian Hart, associate director of Construction, Maintenance and Mining at BIS Oxford Economics.
Residential building starts will decline sharply in the next two years, particularly in the investor-driven apartments segment, as supply catches up to underlying demand. 
BIS expects the total residential market to fall by around 31 percent over the next three years.
The decline will be even sharper for the number of private high density apartments getting underway nationally, being close to 50 percent.
FIGURE 2: NUMBER OF DWELLING COMMENCEMENTS 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/10/BISHousing2.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/10/BISHousing2.png" alt="">  
Figure 3: Dwelling Stock Deficiency, Thousands 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/10/BISHousing3.png" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12.16px;">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/10/BISHousing3.png" alt="">
“Overall the slump will be similar in percentage terms to the residential downturns in the mid-1990s and the introduction of the GST in 2000/01,” the report said.
The economic forecaster’s outlook for residential building activity is more bearish than that included in the 2017/18 Commonwealth Budget, as well as last week’s RBI statement during its rate decision announcement.
The central bank has kept rates at a record low of 1.50 percent for a year now.
In the statement, Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe said the “current high level of residential construction is forecast to be maintained for some time, before gradually easing”.
“It may not be as rosy as all that,” said Robert Mellor, managing director at BIS Oxford Economics.
“Our dwelling demand/supply analysis indicates that all states with the exception of Victoria and New South Wales are either in balance or oversupply,” said Hart.
Dwelling completions are ahead of underlying demand over the next two years, implying a national residential stock surplus by 2018/19 despite New South Wales still being undersupplied.
“While high density dwellings do take longer to complete than traditional detached dwellings, when the end comes it will be very swift,” said Mellor.
“The high proportion of investor activity is another risk factor as investor sentiment can turn quickly. Overall, we expect 2017/18 will be the peak in high density residential completions, but that part of the market will slump around 50 percent in the subsequent two years. By contrast, a milder decline is forecast for detached houses. The saving grace is that the floor in residential commencements is likely to be higher than in previous busts.” 
Commercial property, however is a different story.
The Building in Australia report forecasts the value of non-residential building commencements to rise further in 2017/18 – following a cumulative increase of 25 percent over the past two years. 
“Improved economic conditions along the eastern seaboard are driving new commercial and industrial developments, particularly in New South Wales and Victoria,” said Hart.
“Offices, retail and accommodation commencements have been very strong, although the latter two segments will run out of puff in coming years given the project pipeline and fundamental demand drivers. By contrast, education and health segments are poised for further growth in commencements given a range of large tertiary education and hospital projects about to get underway.” 
However, the total value of non-residential building commencements is expected to ease later this decade, joining the downturn in residential starts.
“Except for a few sub-segments, the current upswing in non-residential building commencements is unlikely to be sustained over the next few years,” said Hart.
Weaker prospects for growth in retail sales will see a narrower pipeline for retail projects, while a tripling in accommodation starts since 2012/13 may also push activity in this segment over the top, resulting in a correction, added Hart.
Barring offices, transport buildings (eg. railway stations and airport terminals), health and education, most other non-residential building segments are expected to experience flat or declining commencements activity over the remainder of the decade.
BIS said the looming downturn in building commencements would be a strong challenge to achieving the three per cent growth targets for the Australian economy outlined in the 2017/18 Federal Budget.
“The strong growth in building commencements since 2012/13 provided a welcome boost for the Australian economy at a time when resources-related investment and construction activity fell heavily,” said Hart.
“But with residential building activity in particular now set for a sharp decline – along with its multiplier impacts on industries such as construction, manufacturing and retail – the Australian economy will need new investment drivers to support growth and employment.”
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Residential building starts to plunge 31 percent in three years: BIS Oxford Economics

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There is no relief on the horizon for the muted retail industry due to tough economic conditions and investment risks in the sector are higher, according to forecaster BIS Oxford Economics’ latest report.
A soft economy, weak household income growth and subdued consumer spending will continue for some years, while Amazon’s entry will only add to the challenges to Australian retailers and shopping centres, says Retail Property Market 2017 to 2027. 
“While the spectre of large scale shop closures, declining retail employment and abandoned shopping centres that we see in the US is unlikely to be repeated to the same extent in Australia, the risks associated with retail property investment are arguably higher than at any time in the past,” it says. 
Returns are expected to vary significantly from centre to centre, while some will fail, it cautions. 
Report author Maria Lee observed that the retail environment remains challenging against the backdrop of a difficult economic transition—away from an economy underpinned by a resources boom and back to more broadly balanced growth. 
“This is proving to be a long, hard slog. We expect retail expenditure to remain muted for the next three years,” she said. 
Shopping centres will struggle to match the pace of aggregate turnover growth due to heightened competition from additional retail floorspace and the continued growth of online sales—now given fresh impetus by the expansion of Amazon. 
Other challenges in converting turnover growth to additional centre income include over-rented shops, high leasing incentives, poorly performing anchor tenants and pressure on retailer profit margins. 
In addition, changing consumer spending patterns means centres must constantly be reinvigorated — and this involves spending money, it concludes.
“We forecast shopping centre net income growth to barely keep pace with inflation over the next five years, with probably more downside than upside risks to those forecasts” says Lee. 
On a positive note, however, BIS Oxford Economics said retail property remains in high demand among investors, with the dollar value of transactions seemingly held back only by a lack of stock for sale. 
Meanwhile, existing owners are pumping large sums of money into (often defensive) refurbishment/expansion projects. Competition for assets is driving yield compression, thereby boosting centre values and total returns. Average yields for regional, sub-regional and neighbourhood centres are all below pre-GFC levels. 
“We can’t see much further yield firming from here. If anything, the main risk is in the opposite direction” said Lee. 
Putting income and yield forecasts together, BIS Oxford Economics forecasts modest IRRs of below 7% over a five-year investment horizon, with considerable variation from centre to centre. 
Some centres are at risk of losing anchor tenants and/or specialty retailers and will underperform. Even for stronger centres, Lee notes that “even experienced shopping centre managers may have trouble in dealing with what are arguably the toughest conditions yet in retail property investment.” 
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Retail property investment risks higher than ever: BIS Oxford Economics 

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Stricter regulation around lending and more levies on foreign buyers was likely to impact apartment demand in inner Sydney, according to BIS Oxford Economics.
Surging prices had also pushed yields to long-term lows, but this price growth is now slowing, the economic forecaster suggested. f
Foreign buyers still however prefer to invest in Australia given the stable political environment, while local investors still benefit from low interest rates, said BIS. 
It noted that while oversupply concerns had been voiced for Melbourne and Brisbane, Sydney’s new apartment supply had already peaked at 3,698 completions in 2015, falling to 2,521 last year, and it was likely to remain largely steady at 2352 in 2016-17.
Though demand is expected to be weaker ahead, new Sydney supply is set to surge over the three years to 2019-20, with completions averaging 4,650 apartments a year over the period.
About 2,800 units were already under construction, with other large projects locked in and pre-selling, the research said.
Occupier demand mainly came from three groups — students, particularly overseas, young adults in white-collar employment, and empty nesters. 
Vacancy rates have been tight for more than a decade, after falling below the balanced market rate of 3 per cent in inner Sydney in June 2005, as demand outstripped construction for much of this time, The Australian reported.
Vacancy rates also tightened to 1.7 per cent in February 2017 after rising to 2.6 per cent in June 2015. 
Meanwhile with price increases, yields on the median two-bedroom apartment dropped to an estimated 4.17 per cent at June 2017. The median two-bedroom unit rent in inner Sydney was an estimated $745 in June, with the median price at $930,000, said BIS.
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Apartment demand in inner Sydney likely to weaken as tougher regulation bites

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UK-based advisory firm Oxford Economics has acquired a controlling stake in leading Australian analytics and forecasting firm BIS Shrapnel for an undisclosed sum, which the former says will make it the largest independent economics research firm in the world. 
The new organisation will be named BIS Oxford Economics and will see the merger of BIS Shrapnel  with the Australian arm of Oxford Economics. BIS Shrapnel generally focuses on the building, construction, property and mining sectors.
“This investment by Oxford Economics sees the merging of BIS Shrapnel’s deep knowledge of the Australian and New Zealand economies with Oxford Economics’ detailed understanding of the global economy,” said Robert Mellor, managing director, BIS Oxford Economics.
The new firm will be better able to assess market trends and quantify the impacts for its clients at the global, national and city levels, said a media release.
“The acquisition brings together Oxford Economics’ rigorous global modelling and analytical framework with BIS Shrapnel’ expertise across the Australian economy, in particular in forecasting investment cycles,” said Adrian Cooper, chief executive officer and chief economist, Oxford Economics.
“This agreement expands the Oxford Economics Group to more than 300 staff globally, making it the largest independent economics research firm in the world, and allows us to support our clients in understanding economic trends and their impacts both domestically and globally.”
Highlighting this, Mellor added that “major political, social and economic events in nations abroad have profound global impacts – look no further than Brexit or Trump”.
The new entity will operate from BIS Shrapnel’s existing offices in Australia. Robert Mellor will lead BIS Oxford Economics, with Dr Frank Gelber to remain Chief Economist and Director.
All of BIS Shrapnel's staff will be retained.
 
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