Strategic government planning will be crucial in addressing the ongoing supply/demand imbalance in Brisbane’s residential market, as new supply continues to lag.

That’s one of the conclusions from a new CBRE market analysis, which highlights positive fundamentals but ongoing challenges for both the Brisbane and broader South East Queensland residential market.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136432 project_image_fid=5479]

While 5,600 apartments and townhouses are projected to be completed in Brisbane this year – up from an average of 3,500 in the five years to 2024 – CBRE Research Director Craig Godber said this figure had been somewhat inflated by project delays, which had shifted some anticipated 2024 completions into 2025.

Godber noted that recent completion levels were also well below the peak period in 2016 and 2017 when annual additions averaged around 12,500 units and townhouses.

“Brisbane's residential market is experiencing unprecedented growth, with demand outstripping supply," Godber said.

"Strategic planning by the State Government is crucial in addressing this imbalance and ensuring sustainable development."

Godber noted that low supply levels had translated into an extended period of low vacancy rates, with Brisbane’s metropolitan vacancy being at or below 1.5% since early 2021 and hitting 0.9% as at March this year.

These tight market conditions are evident across all city precincts.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149098 project_image_fid=330588]

Looking ahead, adjusted additions between 2025 and 2029 are forecast at 23,200 dwellings, or 4,600 per annum, with 60% of these expected to be concentrated in Brisbane’s inner city.

“Brisbane’s low vacancy rate highlights the urgent need for additional residential supply and the forecasted growth in dwelling completions is a positive step towards meeting this demand,” Godber said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7574 project_image_fid=3770]

CBRE Metropolitan Investments Director Will Carman said Brisbane’s population expansion and strong demand fundamentals were driving interest in city development sites, but he noted that developer attitudes were shifting.

“As construction pricing continues to climb, developers are becoming more discerning. The focus has shifted toward delivering high-quality, well-located residential communities that can withstand market pressures and meet long-term demand,” Carman said.

He also noted the issue of affordability, with Brisbane’s median house price having crossed the $1 million mark.

“This reflects not only the city’s strong fundamentals and sustained demand, but also the growing challenge of affordability - particularly for first-home buyers. This price growth underscores the importance of strategic planning and quality development to meet evolving market expectations,” Carman said.

Developer focus shifts to high-quality, well-located residential communities that can withstand market pressures and meet long-term demand, new CBRE analysis shows

Joel Robinson

Challenges and opportunities in Brisbane’s residential market as supply lags

Not only is growth in Brisbane’s unit market lasting longer, it’s also getting stronger.

In August, unit values climbed a further 1.3 per cent, one of the strongest monthly results the Queensland capital has recorded in 2025, pushing the median unit value beyond $740,000, according to Cotality’s latest Home Value Index.

Over the rolling quarter, unit values surged 3.9 per cent, and are now 11.1 per cent higher year-to-date,&nbsp;making Brisbane the strongest-performing capital city unit market in the country.

The city’s apartment sector is also comfortably outpacing detached housing in 2025. House values rose 1.2 per cent in August to reach a median of $1.04 million, but quarterly growth was softer at 2.9 per cent, with an annual gain of just 7.3 per cent.

This widening divergence highlights the relative affordability of apartments and the intensifying demand for medium-density housing amid constrained supply,&nbsp;a trend reshaping Brisbane’s property market.

&nbsp;

<h2>What happened in Brisbane’s off the plan apartment market in August?</h2>

It was a busy month in Brisbane's off the plan property market, with new projects coming to the market, new projects and approved, and some hitting major construction milestones.

&nbsp;

Gold Coast developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Property Group</a> revealed its debut Brisbane apartment development to the market, starting to take expressions of interest for&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/symphony-south-brisbane-21-23-cordelia-street-south-brisbane-qld-4101">Symphony</a>&nbsp;in South Brisbane.&nbsp;

The 138-apartment development, part of Sherpa’s affordability-focused Flourish brand, is located near Fish Lane and aims to deliver quality homes at more accessible price points.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7574 project_image_fid=3444]

Symphony’s one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments will start from $655,000, with eligible first-home buyers benefiting from Queensland’s new stamp duty exemptions.&nbsp;

Over 1,400 sqm of communal amenity, including workspaces, rooftop pool, wellness centre, and private dining, will support a lifestyle-driven community.&nbsp;

Read more: <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/sherpa-opens-pre-release-for-debut-brisbane-apartment-development-symphony">Sherpa opens pre-release for debut Brisbane apartment development, Symphony</a>

Two new project launches in the same month is something Brisbane hasn’t seen in years. Joining Symphony at launch was <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/banksii-east-brisbane-169-wellington-road-east-brisbane-qld-4169">BANKSII</a>, a 72-apartment development rising opposite Raymond Park in East Brisbane

To be developed by joint venture partners <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/core-property-partners">Core Property Partners</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/vector-property">Vector Property</a>, BANKSII has been designed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/mas-architecture-studio">MAS Architecture</a>&nbsp;to reinterpret and integrate the flow of the&nbsp;native Banksia flower into the architecture.

The rooftop will include a suite of wellness amenities including a pool, sauna, gym, and alfresco spaces.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136432 project_image_fid=5476]

&nbsp;

With the Kangaroo Point Green Bridge, The Gabba, and Cross River Rail all within walking distance, BANKSII is poised to benefit from Olympic precinct investment in the lead-up to 2032.

Read more: <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/banksii-sales-launch-in-booming-east-brisbane-apartment-market">BANKSII sales launch in booming East Brisbane apartment market</a>

August saw major construction milestones achieved both in and out of the city.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sekisui-house-australia" target="">Sekisui House</a>&nbsp;celebrated the completion of the Uno building at West Village, unveiling its largest apartments, up to 347 sqm internally, as part of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-allere-collection-west-village-mollison-street-west-end" target="">The Allere Collection</a>.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=114215 project_image_fid=5698]

Positioned in one of Brisbane’s most mature masterplanned precincts, the new residences target the undersupplied upper end of the market, offering rooftop gardens, pools, and pet-friendly amenities like the Paw Pavilion.&nbsp;

The Uno tower follows strong interest in its sold-out sister building Duo, due for completion in late 2025.

Read more: <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/sekisui-house-unveils-allere-unos-largest-apartments-as-building-completes">Sekisui House unveils Allere Uno's largest apartments as building completes</a>

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/rochedale-qld-4123">Rochedale</a> in Brisbane’s south, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/metro-property-group">Metro Property Group</a> also marked a key construction milestone at Citrine Townhomes, with stage one now in the defects phase and full completion of all building works.&nbsp;

Stages one and two are fully sold out, while the recently launched stage three has just 10 four-bedroom homes remaining, priced from $1.125 million.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136295 project_image_fid=2663]

Across the three stages, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/citrine-townhomes-rochedale-311-gardner-road-rochedale-qld-4123">Citrine Townhomes</a> will deliver 90 three and four-bedroom homes with landscaped resident amenities, including a pool and BBQ area.&nbsp;

Settlements for stage one are expected to commence from October 2025.

Read more: <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-stage-of-townhouses-at-citrine-rochedale-reaches-completion-milestone">First stage of townhouses at Citrine Rochedale reaches completion milestone</a>

Builder-developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mcnab-developments">McNab</a> is expected to launch its new West End project after receiving development approval from the Brisbane City Council in August.

The new development,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/tannery-residences-439-montague-road-west-end-qld-4101">The Tannery Residences</a>, will see the historic Dixon's Tannery reimagined into a 10-level apartment building that will&nbsp;integrate the original 19th-century building into a resident wellness hub dubbed The Retreat, featuring a sauna, plunge pools, gym, Pilates studio, and co-working areas.&nbsp;

<img alt="McNab secures approval to transform West End's Dixon’s Tannery into The Tannery Residences" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/McNab%20The%20Tannery_Render_09.jpg?VersionId=Ucpd19J0ABOpzetZ.BsyYmS_x2N2QV_g" />

The 81 residences, ranging from two to four bedrooms, will be complemented by expansive rooftop amenities, including a pool, dog-friendly zones, and outdoor dining.&nbsp;

McNab plans to begin construction in Q3 2025, with completion expected by late 2027.

Read more: <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/mcnab-secures-approval-to-transform-west-ends-dixon-s-tannery-into-the-tannery-residences">McNab secures approval to transform West End's Dixon’s Tannery into The Tannery Residences</a>

&nbsp;

One of the largest applications the local council has seen in years hit the new apartment pipeline in August.

Verso Development filed plans for Toowong Central, a $1 billion precinct across three towers delivering 1,100 apartments to Brisbane’s undersupplied inner-west.&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

<img alt="$1 billion Toowong Central to deliver 1,100 apartments to undersupplied Brisbane market" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/architecture.png?VersionId=G7zTAAtY9Nj3muYKNSFxD_dzEWMqRn3X" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/kerry-hill-architects">KHA</a>, the scheme includes short-term accommodation and a civic plaza, and aims to reclaim <a href="Toowong">Toowong</a>’s identity with subtropical urbanism and integrated public realm outcomes.

Read more: <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/1-billion-toowong-central-to-deliver-1-100-apartments-to-undersupplied-brisbane-market">$1 billion Toowong Central to deliver 1,100 apartments to undersupplied Brisbane market</a>

City Beat August 2025: Brisbane unit values surge again in August, as two new apartment developments launch to market

Summit &amp; Ridge, the fourth stage of Sekisui House Australia's Sanctuary in Wentworth Point, secured a flurry of sales at its recent launch.

More than 80 per cent of purchasers of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/summit-ridge-at-sanctuary-wentworth-point-14-16-hill-road-wentworth-point-nsw-2127">Summit &amp; Ridge</a>&nbsp;were owner occupiers, underlining the strong demand from buyers looking to live within the new&nbsp;riverfront community. Over 40 apartments were sold valued at $46.5 million within three hours of the launch event, with an average price of $1.107 million.

“Buyers appreciated the larger layouts in this stage and the sense of space Summit &amp; Ridge offers,"&nbsp;said Matthew Landa, Senior Sales Executive – Apartments &amp; Mixed-Use Developments.

"The combination of generous apartments, exclusive amenities and unique position on the Parramatta River peninsula helped with sales. Many told us they could picture themselves living here, it is a place that feels established, green and connected, yet private."

The launch drew interest from local buyers within a 5km radius, as well as repeat purchasers from previous Sanctuary stages, with 15 per cent of buyers upgrading their property portfolio through Sekisui House Australia’s Rewards Program. Purchasers also came from the Lower North Shore, Oatlands and the Inner West, highlighting the project’s broad market appeal.&nbsp;

<img alt="Summit &amp; Ridge at Sanctuary, Wentworth Point" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="1166d1aa-e075-429c-a1f4-4861cad140e3" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/2417_TheSanctuary_02_EXT_Podium.jpg?VersionId=E37Ym7TBhQX4VFKnFNDwccSiDLp81KZA" />

Comprising 488 apartments across Summt (39 levels), and Ride (32 levels), the first sales release focused exclusively on one and two-bedroom residences, priced from $720,000 to $1.3 million. One-bedroom apartments were popular, with purchasers valuing their limited supply, pricing and uninterrupted views across the Newington Nature Reserve, Parramatta River and picturesque views across the Blue Mountains.

Summit &amp; Ridge enjoys an enviable position on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/wentworth-point-nsw-2127">Wentworth Point</a> peninsula, the only built environment north of Hill Road, surrounded by water and a nature reserve. The project’s Neighbourhood Green, a 1.5-hectare landscaped parkland running through the heart of Sanctuary will also open soon.

The towers by acclaimed architects <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/turner-studio">TURNER</a> are defined by organic, sculptural forms that frame views, guide movement and enhance the connection between nature and the city, a design approach that ensures Summit &amp; Ridge will become a striking architectural marker within Sydney’s skyline.

<img alt="Summit &amp; Ridge at Sanctuary, Wentworth Point" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="49e681c8-af8e-4623-aa60-7573acaade7e" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/CGI1.png?VersionId=EkqjP9veHDeZaSeXkN8p1aOUW79nLdVv" />

Summit will feature resident-only amenities on level 29 including a resort-style pool and sauna, while Ridge offers an outdoor cinema, sunset bar and dining space on level 23. At the base of Ridge, a 110-place childcare centre will further support growing families, reinforcing the masterplan’s focus on lifestyle and community.

The interiors in the project by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/henderson-co">Henderson &amp; Co.</a>, were inspired by the “natural elegance” of Sanctuary’s landscape setting, with efficient Japanese design principles enhancing space and light throughout the homes. 
&nbsp; 
“The fact that sales were achieved so quickly shows the strength of demand for quality, well-designed apartments in Sydney,"&nbsp;Landa added.

"Owner occupiers in particular see the long-term value of being part of a master planned community delivered by Sekisui House Australia, and that trust has been a major driver behind this success."

Sales momentum was further supported by the current downward trend in interest rates, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

<img alt="Summit &amp; Ridge at Sanctuary, Wentworth Point" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="31591500-e65c-44d6-aa48-35310a7bd45b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/HERO_CASE%20STUDY%20A_1.jpg?VersionId=DiE.Zk1g8Rfb1fRmMMe_0r6oa55oYsAb" />

The recent completion of the third stage of Sanctuary, Laguna &amp; Glade,&nbsp;has further reinforced purchaser confidence, giving buyers a first-hand view of Sekisui House Australia’s build quality and design execution.

Nearby amenities include Marina Square Shopping Centre, Wentworth Point High School, ferry terminal, train station and the future Parramatta Light Rail.&nbsp;

Three and four-bedroom apartments will be released at future launches. &nbsp;Construction is anticipated to commence in Q4 2025 and completed by Q3 2028.

Every apartment in Summit &amp; Ridge will carry a 4 Gold Star iCIRT rating, an independent NSW Government-backed accreditation for integrity, capability and financial stability, giving buyers confidence they are investing in a home built to last.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144917]

Owner occupiers drive $46.5 million launch success at Summit & Ridge, Wentworth Point

Plans to transform the former VicRoads site in Kew are progressing with four shortlisted developers invited to submit their proposals for the site.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/riverlee">Riverlee</a>, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/lendlease-development">Lendlease Development Pty Ltd</a>, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mirvac">Mirvac Group</a> and a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/milieu-property">Milieu</a>-led consortium have been invited to participate in the Request for Proposal (RFP) process to deliver much needed housing at 60 Denmark Street, Kew.

Acting Executive General Manager Housing, Nemesia Kennett, said the RFP stage follows a strong response to the initial Expression of Interest (EOI) campaign.

"Denmark Street, Kew, presents a unique development opportunity which has attracted high caliber developers well qualified to transform the site,"&nbsp;Kennett said.

“Each shortlisted developer brings a depth of expertise and proven track record in delivering quality housing projects, achieving excellence in design and community outcomes. We’re looking forward to seeing the shortlisted developers' proposals and understanding how they will deliver the best outcomes for the community if successful."

Local views and priorities for the site were captured in a Community Aspirations Report that will guide the next stage of the development process.

"The report found overwhelming community support for redevelopment of the site and recognition of the urgent need for more homes in Kew,"&nbsp;Kennett added.

“Feedback also highlighted opportunities to revitalise public areas, improve walking and cycling connections, create more green open space, and celebrate the site's heritage, including its rail history and Wurundjeri cultural stories.”

Development Victoria will continue to communicate with the Boroondara Council and the local community throughout the transaction process.

A preferred development partner will be confirmed in 2026, following a thorough assessment of proposals.

Developers shortlisted to deliver housing in Kew

Builder-developer ALAND has drawn back the curtain on its first city-focused new apartment development.

The North Sydney development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-walden-north-sydney-173-179-walker-street-north-sydney-nsw-2060">The Walden</a>, is the first time the company has ventured this close to the city, having previously completed thousands of apartments predominantly in Sydney's west, and more recently in Gosford.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aland">ALAND</a> acquired the prime North Sydney site, spanning Walker and Hampden Streets just down the road from the Victoria Cross Metro station, for $240 million in June.

Now they've unveiled the new project, a mix of one-, two-, three- and four-bedroom apartments across a 30-level building designed by Rothelowman.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=6384]

The Walden will capitalise on the site’s front-row position on the eastern fringe of the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/north-sydney-nsw-2060">North Sydney</a> CBD, which offers uninterrupted Sydney Harbour views stretching from the Sydney Harbour Bridge all the way to Sydney Heads.

The main tower will be flanked by a small four-level amenity building known as The Pavilion, offering exclusive resident-only amenities including a dedicated concierge service, a sauna and private wellness studio, a gymnasium and fitness studio, a resort-style rooftop pool and sundeck.

There will also be a&nbsp;residents’ lounge, private dining and a wine cellar, and co-working facilities with an on-site meeting room and boardroom.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=6382]

ALAND Founder Andrew Hrsto said the company knew they could create something "iconic" with The Walden when they saw the site.

&nbsp;

“As a company, we had been searching for a site in one of Sydney’s blue-chip locations, spanning the Eastern Suburbs, the Sydney CBD and the North Shore, and when we had the opportunity to purchase this site, we immediately recognised that it could be something iconic – being the last development with a view offering this exceptional.

“We identified the attributes and quality of the site as being perfectly aligned for ALAND – and we feel that this off-market acquisition is a perfect opportunity to showcase our craftmanship and expertise through a truly unique offering."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=6399]

Hrsto pointed to ALAND’s longstanding development expertise as a significant benefit in delivering a positive outcome for The Walden.

“Being a fully integrated development and construction business with a highly experienced team, we have the benefit of in-house experts across the development spectrum, from acquisitions, design, planning, and construction, to sales, marketing, property management, through to building management.

“As one of Australia’s largest private development and construction groups, we’ve been in operation for 23 years, with a Gold Star iCIRT rating and a 100 per cent delivery success rate across numerous masterplanned and mixed-use projects – and we’re very much looking forward to bringing this expertise to The Walden and contributing to the ongoing revitalisation of North Sydney."

The Walden is the latest development in Sydney to have the 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy by Resilience Insurance, protecting buyers from any structural or waterproofing-related issues for 10 years post-completion.&nbsp;

Demolition of existing structures on The Walden site has already commenced through specialist civil contractor Moits, with the aim of completing preparatory ground works by the end of 2025, ahead of construction commencement in early 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134323]

ALAND unveils The Walden, North Sydney's latest luxury apartment development

Australian Industry

<html><body>
A group of large Australian industry groups have banded together to denounce the lack of action on issues surrounding combustible cladding. 
Australia’s fragmented approach to regulatory enforcement and compliance with building regulations requires a renewed commitment to national action to maintain public confidence in our built environment, the group said. 
The concerns of the groups are characterised by the following:
<ol>
<li>Australian and international insurers are introducing strict cladding-related exclusions in mandatory professional indemnity insurance products for building practitioners in the building supply chain.</li>
<li>The discovery of major defects in buildings has significantly reduced the ability of those building owners to find an insurer willing to accept the risk.</li>
<li>State and territory governments have not taken a consistent and comprehensive approach to undertaking and completing audits of existing high-rise buildings with combustible cladding, nor developed a remediation strategy.</li>
<li>Governments are taking an inconsistent and fragmented approach to implementing reforms described in the Shergold-Weir report, which was released 18 months ago. </li>
</ol>
They acknowledged that though some action has been taken to amend the National Construction Code (NCC) and effectively eliminate the use of many types of combustible cladding on new building facades, they believe the response of state and territory governments to dealing with cladding on existing buildings has been patchy and inconsistent.
In a statement released this week the groups stated:
"We urge the Commonwealth, State and Territory governments to work together in providing certainty through a uniform national approach to dealing with these matters.
"As organisations representing the building, construction, property and insurance industries, we urge the Federal Government to play a leadership role and bring together all state and territory governments to:
<ol>
<li>"Develop and implement a consistent and best practice Australia-wide response for risk assessment and a rectification strategy for existing buildings with combustible cladding with an agreed timetable that reflects the urgency of the issue. This will reduce confusion, clarify the scale of the challenge and support a viable professional indemnity insurance market that provides the coverage needed by industry participants and building owners.</li>
<li>"Establish a joint government-industry taskforce to oversee urgent and consistent implementation of all Shergold-Weir report recommendations across all jurisdictions."</li>
</ol>
Signatories to the statement were Property Council of Australia, Insurance Council of Australia, Ai Group, Australian Construction Industry Forum, and Master Builders Australia. 
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Industry groups call for building regulation reform on combustible cladding

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVER
The Q3 NAB SME Survey suggests a loss of momentum in SME business conditions and confidence but this is against the exceptionally strong results in Q2.
Overall, conditions and confidence remain above their long-term averages which suggest relatively solid levels of underlying activity.
A further narrowing in the gap between conditions experienced by SMEs and larger businesses as indicated by the NAB Quarterly Business Survey suggests that the pace of growth is now more consistent across small and large businesses.
The NAB SME Survey is the leading business survey of small businesses in Australia, and complements the comprehensive Quarterly NAB Business Survey.
It offers a rich repertoire of insights into factors affecting smaller firms’ conditions by state, industry and size, as well as an assessment of their outlook for investment and output.
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/NAB%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/NAB%201.jpg" alt="">
However, the base of industries which reported positive conditions shrank in the quarter and this warrants close monitoring for signs of further weakening in the near future. The sustained weakness in retail conditions is of particular concern as it has the potential to affect other affiliated industries such as wholesale and transport.
Meanwhile, we continue to witness strong conditions in tertiary services such as health, business and financial services.
SME business confidence eased marginally in the quarter to +5, but continues to exceed its long-term average of +2.
The fall in SME confidence was in spite of the RBA’s 25bps cut to the cash rate in August, perhaps a reflection of the absence of a sustained depreciation in the AUD despite the rate cut.
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/NAB%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/NAB%202.jpg" alt="">
In Q3, business conditions were mixed by state. NSW, Victoria and WA reported relatively stable conditions, SA improved but was still lacklustre, while Queensland deteriorated sharply. The readings for Queensland in particular have been volatile recently so we will need additional information to determine the underlying trend for the state,” said Mr Oster.
NSW and Victoria continue to outperform in terms of conditions, while WA remains the weakest.
The ongoing mining downturn continues to weigh on WA conditions, while the recent improvements in commodity prices have done little to assuage the pessimism of SMEs from the state, with WA continuing to be the least confident state as well. Apart from WA, SA was the only other state to report negative confidence. Meanwhile, NSW, Victoria and Queensland tied in the top spot for confidence at +7 index points.
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/NAB%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/NAB%203.jpg" alt="">
 
SME forward orders rose by 1 point to +4 index points in Q3, which is notably above the long-term average of -1 index points and consistent with the result for general businesses as reported in the QBS.
The generally positive readings for forward orders since late 2013 are broadly in line with a moderate recovery in real economic activity.
By industry, the quarterly movements were mixed. Apart from manufacturing, retail and transport, all other industries reported positive forward orders.
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/Survey%204.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/Survey%204.jpg" alt="">
Forward orders for finance (up 16 points to +17) and health services (up 9 points to +16) jumped by the most in the quarter to record the strongest results, pointing to the continuing outperformance of services sectors.
Forward orders for manufacturing fell the most (down 8 points to -1). Meanwhile, transport and retail, both at -3, were the weakest in the quarter.
This is consistent with the lacklustre conditions and confidence experienced by the retail sector at the moment.
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/Survey%205.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/Survey%205.jpg" alt="">
The SME stock index improved marginally to +5 index points, to be above the long-term average of +2 index points and that of larger businesses indicated by the QBS (at +2).
The improvement was largely driven by business services and health, both rising by 6 points to +13 and 0 respectively.
The stock index for business services was also the highest in the quarter, followed closely by wholesale (down 6 points to +11). The relatively high stock levels reported by the wholesale sector is consistent with a higher capacity utilisation rate and resilient forward orders in the quarter.
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/Survey%206.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/Survey%206.jpg" alt="">
That said, the sharp deterioration in the conditions of larger wholesale businesses as indicated by the QBS could signal an imminent weakening of wholesale SMEs in coming quarters.
Meanwhile, stocks for manufacturing (down by 11 points to +3) and property services (down 9 points to -7) fell by the most in the quarter, with the latter the weakest across industries.
The two consecutive quarterly falls for property services are consistent with a lower transaction volume in the housing market recently.
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/Survey%207.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/Survey%207.jpg" alt="">
The non-seasonally adjusted cash flow index was the strongest in Q3 for financial services (at +24), followed by business services (at +22) and the weakest for transport (-9) and retail (-8).
Overall, SME price indicators point to relatively contained price pressures.
Growth in input costs (purchase costs, overheads and labour costs) have generally eased over the last two years and have contributed to improved margins readings.
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/Survey%208.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/Survey%208.jpg" alt="">
That said, final price growth appears to have lost some momentum in recent quarters – probably indicative of strong downstream competition – and is consistent with a subdued inflation outlook.
Business conditions for SMEs eased by 2 points to +5 index points in Q3, but remain slightly above the long-run average of +4.
Encouragingly, low-tier SMEs continued to report positive business conditions after recording the first positive reading in two years in Q2 to be around its long-term average.
SME conditions are now only marginally below those of general businesses indicated by the NAB Quarterly Business Survey (QBS), but this mostly reflects a notable fall in the conditions of the latter. SME business confidence also eased in the quarter to +5 (from +6 in Q2), but remains above the long-term average of +2.
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/Survey%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/Survey%201.jpg" alt="">
Two of the three components that make up SME business conditions fell, with trading conditions (down 5 points to +11) and profitability (down 2 points to +4) both retreating from their recent peaks but continuing to stay above their long-term averages.
Despite a sustained period where trading and profitability conditions exceed their historical average, the employment index was in negative territory for the eight consecutive quarter at -1, which was unchanged from the quarter before.
The lack of momentum in SME employment conditions are seemingly at odds with the relatively more robust reports by general businesses in the QBS, where the employment index has been tracking above long-term average levels since H2 of 2015.
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/Survey%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/Survey%202.jpg" alt="">
This possibly reflects the weaker financial capacity of SMEs to hire new employees or a greater difficulty for them to find suitable labour compared to their larger counterparts.
In Q3, business conditions were mixed by state. NSW, Victoria and WA reported relatively stable conditions, SA improved but was still lacklustre, while Queensland deteriorated sharply. The business conditions index for Queensland gave up all its the gains, dropping by 10 points from Q2 to be back at +1 again.
The eastern non-mining states of NSW and Victoria continue to outperform at +13 and +10 respectively, while WA remains the weakest of all states at -14. Despite the sharp fall in conditions, Qld was the only state which reported improved confidence in the quarter (up 2 points to +7) to tie with NSW and Victoria in having the strongest confidence.
Meanwhile, stronger commodity prices in the quarter had done very little to bolster confidence of SMEs in WA, which reported a decline in confidence (down 5 points to - 6) in the quarter to be the weakest of all states.
Most SME industry sectors reported weaker conditions in the quarter, with services sectors continuing to outperform more traditional sectors in general. Similar to Q2, health, finance and business services occupied the top three spots, while transport (at -7) replaced construction (at +2) as the weakest sector, followed by retail (at - 4).
The wholesale sector managed to hold onto its recent gains in conditions to be at +8 index points, a sign that perhaps some of the earlier upstream cost pressures had ameliorated. However, weak growth in wholesale final price suggests that competitive pressures downstream are elevated.
Business confidence by industry paints a more positive picture overall, with more sectors reporting an improvement rather than a decline in the quarter. Apart from property and retail, all other industries recorded positive confidence.
<a href="/images/2016/10/31/Survey%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/31/Survey%203.jpg" alt="">
Somewhat surprisingly, confidence of the property sector suffered the sharpest decline in the quarter to be the weakest across industries, even though dwelling prices continue to grow strongly in major markets of Sydney and Melbourne, and more recently, ACT.
Compared to the larger businesses in the QBS, SME business conditions outperform general businesses in finance, wholesale and property, but are significantly weaker in transport.
Analysis by firm size shows that low-tier SME firms continue to report weaker conditions and confidence compared to their larger counterparts, although the fact that their conditions and confidence indices are positive remains encouraging.
Alan Oster is group chief economist, National Australia Bank, and can be contacted <a href="https://business.nab.com.au/author/alan-oster/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Property confidence dips as SME business conditions remain upbeat overall: Alan Oster

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GUEST OBSERVATION
As Australian companies enter the new year, IBISWorld reveals the five industries expected to soar and the five expected to sink.
We expect 2015 to be a boom year for a wide array of industries. Coal seam gas extraction will provide the benchmark for others to chase, with online grocery sales, fast fashion, private equity and hydroponic crop farming also expected to soar in the coming year.
While some industries are set for a bumper year, there are many that will be dreading the year ahead. Petroleum exploration is tipped to be the biggest loser in 2015 as oil prices plunge, while mining and construction machinery manufacturing, cigarette manufacturing, motion picture and video distribution, and electricity distribution are all expected to endure a difficult year.
Industries set to fly
<table border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top">
Industries
</td>
<td valign="top">
Revenue 2014 ($m)
</td>
<td valign="top">
Revenue 2015 ($m)
</td>
<td valign="top">
Growth (%)
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top">
Coal seam gas extraction
</td>
<td valign="top">
737.9
</td>
<td valign="top">
1830.0
</td>
<td valign="top">
148.0
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top">
Online grocery sales
</td>
<td valign="top">
1914.2
</td>
<td valign="top">
2194.0
</td>
<td valign="top">
14.6
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top">
Fast fashion
</td>
<td valign="top">
1219.4
</td>
<td valign="top">
1346.5
</td>
<td valign="top">
10.4
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top">
Private equity
</td>
<td valign="top">
365.0
</td>
<td valign="top">
401.8
</td>
<td valign="top">
10.1
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top">
Hydroponic crop farming
</td>
<td valign="top">
791.7
</td>
<td valign="top">
836.4
</td>
<td valign="top">
5.6
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
Coal seam gas extraction
The coal seam gas extraction industry is undergoing a significant transformation. Industry revenue is forecast to rise by 148.0% over the next year, to reach $1.83 billion. While coal seam gas projects have become more viable due to new and improving extraction techniques, it is the development of export capabilities that is expected to drive rapid industry growth.
The opening of the domestic east coast gas market to the international market is expected to push gas prices higher – particularly as Australia is well-positioned to meet strong demand from Japan, China and South Korea, which are the world’s three largest natural gas importers.
Supply to these markets from considerable coal seam reserves in Queensland will be boosted in 2015 as the Curtis Island LNG plant becomes operational. Once operational, the Curtis Island LNG plant will be the world’s first project to turn coal seam gas into liquefied natural gas, which will be a boon to operators of newly developed coal seam gas fields in the Cooper Basin.
Online grocery sales
Online grocery shopping has been slow to catch on within the Australian market, even as local online shopping as a whole has exploded in popularity over the past five years. The uptake of online shopping is typically driven by the improved ease of use of online stores and fast, affordable delivery options. As consumers become more adept at using online stores and gain more experience buying items online, online shopping expands.
Such a phenomenon is anticipated to occur for online grocery stores in 2015, leading to revenue growth of 14.6% for the year. While grocery shopping is not a difficult undertaking as there are supermarkets scattered across all pockets of the country, time-conscious consumers are increasingly realising the benefits of online grocery shopping.
The increased prevalence of click-and-collect options and greater comfort with purchasing perishable items like fresh fruit online are expected to boost industry revenue over the coming year.
Fast fashion
Fast fashion stores are expanding rapidly across Australia. While the industry was previously dominated by Australian mainstay Cotton On, international operators including Zara, Topshop, H&amp;M, Uniqlo and Forever 21 have taken the country by storm. Zara is expected to continue its phenomenal growth, while 2015 will be the first full calendar year of Australian operations for H&amp;M, Uniqlo and Forever 21, leading to projected industry revenue growth of 10.4% over the year.
Zara posted exponential revenue growth with extremely high retail profit margins over its first three years of operation in Australia, and IBISWorld expects this growth to continue in 2015. The rousing success of the grand openings of H&amp;M and Uniqlo in Melbourne in April 2014 is expected to result in similar growth for these stores, which will generate significant growth for the overall fast fashion industry.
Private equity
2014 was a highly successful year for the private equity industry, which is expected to achieve similar prosperity in 2015. Private equity firms generate revenue from management fees paid by outside investors and the gains made on investing their own funds.
Merger and acquisition (M&amp;A) activity is expected to rise in 2015. As private equity firms will play a key role in upcoming M&amp;A deals, this should result in growth in management fees earned and potential investment returns, ultimately leading to forecast industry revenue growth of 10.1% for the year.
Growth in M&amp;A activity in Australia coincides with greater global interest in M&amp;A, as Europe and particularly the United States are emerging from a prolonged period of crisis and subdued growth.
Hydroponic crop farming
Hydroponic crop farming holds a relatively small place in the overall scheme of Australian agricultural production, but is undergoing strong and steady growth. Water conservation is the driving force behind hydroponics, as hydroponically grown produce typically uses only one-fifth the amount of water that soil-grown produce requires.
In addition to water conservation, hydroponics allow for higher production yields of high-quality produce. Vertically tiered plants enable greater productivity, while greater quality control, faster plant growth and longer growing seasons offset the added cost of hydroponic systems over conventional agricultural practices.
Rising capacity in the hydroponic crop farming industry should meet sustained demand from retailers and consumers in 2015, and lead to revenue growth of a forecast 5.6% for the year.
Article continues on the next page. Please click below.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
Industries to fall
<table border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top">
Industries
</td>
<td valign="top">
Revenue 2014 ($m)
</td>
<td valign="top">
Revenue 2015 ($m)
</td>
<td valign="top">
Growth (%)
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top">
Petroleum exploration
</td>
<td valign="top">
4631.0
</td>
<td valign="top">
3755.3
</td>
<td valign="top">
-18.9
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top">
Cigarette &amp; tobacco manufacture
</td>
<td valign="top">
1895.3
</td>
<td valign="top">
1685.1
</td>
<td valign="top">
-11.1
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top">
Electricity distribution
</td>
<td valign="top">
18547.6
</td>
<td valign="top">
16694.7
</td>
<td valign="top">
-10.0
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top">
Mining &amp; construction machinery manufacture
</td>
<td valign="top">
5425.0
</td>
<td valign="top">
5092.1
</td>
<td valign="top">
-6.1
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top">
Film &amp; video distribution
</td>
<td valign="top">
1857.5
</td>
<td valign="top">
1788.4
</td>
<td valign="top">
-3.7
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
Petroleum exploration
The world price of crude oil is plummeting due to an enormous supply glut spurred by overproduction from members of OPEC, the United States and Russia. The severe crash in oil prices means that the investment returns available from petroleum exploration activities are drastically reduced.
Exploration projects have therefore become far less viable for Australian firms, particularly as the stock prices of such firms have begun to dive. These conditions are projected to result in an 18.9% decline in industry revenue in 2015.
High oil prices have acted as an incentive for global companies to invest in petroleum exploration over the past five years. However, the subsequent oversupply is going to hamper exploration in 2015, as Australian firms are unable to compete with the low production costs and high production volumes from the world’s major oil producers.
The best-performing segment in the industry is expected to be natural gas exploration – but investment has already peaked for the segment, and additional gas extraction capacity will not be needed until export facilities become fully operational.
Cigarette and tobacco
In Australia, cigarette manufacturing has historically been dominated by British American Tobacco and Philip Morris, with Imperial Tobacco importing cigarettes rather than manufacturing them locally. The industry is headed for a severe decline in 2015, as Philip Morris offshored its cigarette manufacturing for the Australian market to its Korean facilities in 2014.
The loss of Philip Morris is forecast to result in an 11.1% revenue decline for the industry in 2015. Philip Morris held just over one-third of the industry’s market share. The loss of the company from the industry will be keenly felt as the number of companies manufacturing cigarettes and tobacco products in Australia falls from two down to one.
High regulatory barriers in Australia, requiring more stringent quality control, meant there were few export opportunities for the company’s local facility. Meanwhile, rapidly rising taxes on cigarettes and the advent of plain packaging have meant that smokers are increasingly buying cheaper cigarettes, such as those manufactured by British American Tobacco.
Electricity distribution
The cost of retail energy has surged over the past five years. Earlier projections of continued growth in electricity use per capita and rising peak demand led the industry to gold-plate electricity networks, and the Australian Energy Regulator (AER) allowed fees to rise to cover capital costs. A subsequent decline in the use of centrally generated electricity means there is a surplus of network capacity.
The AER has slashed revenue limits in New South Wales and Tasmania, as consumers have been paying for networks’ overinvestment. This is expected to result in an overall industry revenue decline of 10.0% in 2015.
The AER has cut revenue limits substantially for the three networks operating in New South Wales for 2015-16 – in some cases, by over 30.0% when compared with 2014-15. Similarly, Aurora Energy in Tasmania suffered a regulated revenue cut that will hit the industry in 2015.
The industry is further threatened by the increased use of small-scale electricity generation through solar photovoltaic panels, which could reduce demand for distribution networks as consumers go off the grid.
Mining and construction machinery manufacturing
Demand for mining machinery has been driven by investment in new mines, along with mine expansion projects. Mining companies are expected to revise down their expectations of revenue growth during 2015, as the prices of commodities like iron ore have plunged. Demand for mining machinery is expected to fall as a result, leading to a forecast revenue decline of 6.1% over 2015.
The development of new mines, and the expansion of existing mines, generally requires mining firms to purchase new machinery, leading to revenue growth for mining machinery manufacturers. As the mining boom moves from its investment phase to a production phase, and as falling iron ore prices deter further investment, demand for machinery is likely to suffer in 2015.
Film and video distribution
Australian motion picture and video distributors have been hit with a barrage of new media formats and consumer behaviours that have made the industry less profitable and resulted in declining revenue over the past five years. Video-on-demand services are expected to boom in 2015, cannibalising sales of DVDs and Blu-ray Discs, which generate greater revenue. The continuous decline of DVD and video hire outlets, along with the negative effects of piracy, are projected to lead to a 3.7% dip in revenue in 2015.
The introduction of US-based streaming service behemoth Netflix, along with local entrants Stan and Presto, is tipped to be a win for consumers but a loss for distributors. Consumers will be able to pay monthly subscription fees to view a wide range of content, in contrast to paying a set price for each single film or TV show – which added up to a much larger hit to the hip pocket.
David Whytcross is an industry analyst at <a href="https://www.ibisworld.com.au" target="_blank">IBISWorld</a>.
For more information on these, or any of Australia’s 500 industries, log onto <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/www.ibisworld.com.au" target="_blank">www.ibisworld.com.au</a>, or follow IBISWorldAU on Twitter.
This article first appeared on <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/" target="_blank">SmartCompany</a>.
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po-LsXgBTHBmX

The Australian industries set to fly and fall in 2015

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The Australian Performance of Construction Index has seen the industry's contraction slow over March, with the index up 2.0 points to 46.2 over the month.
The '50 point level' is that which separates expansion from contraction in the industry and it is the third consecutive month since the industry returned to growth that the index has been below this balance level.
The Australian Industry group director - public policy, Peter Burn, said that there was a consolidation of recent gains in the houe building sector. He also noted a recovery of commercial construction.
Despite these positive shoots, a pull-back in the previously bullish apartment building sector and a decline in engineering construction kept the index sluggish.
"As is the case with the broader economy, the rebalancing of the construction sector as mining-related activity slows still has a considerable way to go," said Burn.
He pointed to hopes that momentum can be maintained in the residential construction sectors, with attention to turning to required investment in non-mining related engineering construction.
Meanwhile, Housing Industry Association chief economist Harley Dale noted that despite the positive signs at the close of 2013, it was disappointing to see a full first quarter of 2014 in negative territory.
"The detached house activity component remains expansionary, if only just, and 2014 should be a healthy year for new home building activity," said Dale.
"What the sector and broader economy needs, however, is a sustained recovery in new home building commensurate with average construction levels being considerably higher over coming decades than those achieved over the past 20 years," he said.
"The prospect of achieving this outcome would be significantly bolstered by a national taxation reform agenda which included the removal of the excessive and inefficient taxes levied on new home building."
House building did fall over the month, by 1.4 points, however it remained above the 50 mark - at 50.8, suggesting a stabilisation. Meanwhile, apartment building declined 1.0 points to 45.6 points.
Commercial construction declined by 3.4 points, to 56.5 points, with engineering construction up 5.8 points to 45.5 points.
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