Roseville is poised for a wave of new apartment development following the NSW Government's rezoning of land around Roseville Station under its Transport Oriented Development program.

The new planning controls have unlocked significant development potential within walking distance of the station, with a number of sites expected to be amalgamated and redeveloped in the coming years as developers seek to take advantage of the increased density allowances.

One of the more restrained developments in the precinct, and set among the first to be delivered having commenced well before the recent changes, is Hyecorp's Juliet. The boutique apartment project is already well under construction and remains on track to welcome residents by the end of the year, offering a markedly different proposition to many of the larger-scale developments now likely to emerge across the suburb.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278194]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/juliet-roseville-64-pacific-highway-roseville-nsw-2069">Juliet</a> will comprise just&nbsp;34 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments opposite Roseville Station. For Hyecorp, which has delivered projects across Sydney's Lower North Shore for more than three decades, Roseville presented a rare opportunity to address a growing gap in the market.

"<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/roseville-nsw-2069">Roseville</a> has long been one of the North Shore's most tightly held and desirable suburbs, offering a unique combination of village charm, established greenery, excellent transport connections, and proximity to some of Sydney's best schools and lifestyle amenities," Hyecorp said.

"We recognised a growing demand from local homeowners seeking to downsize without leaving the community they have built their lives around. The location presented a rare opportunity to create homes that cater specifically to that buyer profile."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278196]

The six-level development has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/pbd-architects">PBD Architects</a> as a collection of residences that feel more like homes than apartments. The brief centred generous floorplans, abundant natural light, quality finishes, and strong connections to outdoor space.

PBD Architects drew inspiration from Roseville's established garden suburb character, creating a building that sits comfortably within its surroundings rather than dominating them. The architecture incorporates natural materials, soft forms, layered landscaping, expansive balconies, and generous setbacks to strengthen the connection between residents and the suburb's leafy environment.

"The focus was on designing spacious, house-like residences for discerning owner-occupiers and downsizers who wanted to remain on the North Shore without compromising on comfort, privacy, or design," PBD said.&nbsp;

"Every apartment was to feel considered, timeless, and highly functional."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278195]

Inside, residences feature engineered timber flooring, stone kitchen benchtops and splashbacks, integrated Fisher &amp; Paykel appliances, ducted air conditioning, and large outdoor entertaining areas designed to take advantage of district and treetop views.

Residents will also have access to a rooftop barbecue and lounge area, alongside practical amenities including parcel lockers, EV charging capability, bicycle storage, a dog wash bay, and a basement car wash facility.

The majority of purchasers so far have been local owner-occupiers from Roseville, Lindfield, Chatswood, Killara, and the broader Upper North Shore, many of whom are transitioning from larger family homes.

"Buyers are looking for spacious, house-like apartments that allow them to downsize without feeling like they are sacrificing comfort or functionality," Hyecorp noted.

"They value large kitchens, generous living areas, ample storage, quality finishes, secure parking, lift access, and low-maintenance living."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278204]

Juliet sits directly opposite Roseville Train Station and within walking distance of Roseville Village, while Chatswood's retail and dining precinct is only minutes away. The development is also surrounded by some of Sydney's most established schools, including Roseville College, Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College, and Knox Grammar, as well as nearby parklands and golf courses.

Juliet is currently more than 75 per cent sold ahead of its anticipated completion in late 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7395]

Joel Robinson

Juliet to sit quietly amid Roseville apartment boom

Sherpa Property Group has unveiled the third instalment of its Flourish series, securing full approval for the two-tower, $500 million Flourish Soleira development in Palm Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-1150-1154-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> will rise from a prominent site in the commercial heart of Palm Beach, the long-time home of Cash Converters and a range of local retailers.

The project will introduce a new retail and dining precinct at ground level, beneath 286 apartments.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370959]

“We’re very committed to not only providing affordable residential offerings that are much needed in Palm Beach, but also delivering a vibrant new commercial heart that complements the extraordinary growth of the southern Gold Coast,” Sherpa Property Group founder Christie Leet said.

The development will sit under Sherpa's Flourish brand, which is aimed at providing a pathway into the beachside suburb for locals, first-home buyers and downsizers. In a move designed to assist first-home buyers entering the market, Sherpa has reserved all one and two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartments exclusively for eligible first-home buyers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370964]

“Our vision through Flourish is to create a vibrant retail and lifestyle focal point within the Palm Beach centre zone, delivering thriving communities underpinned by lifestyle-rich locations,” Leet said.

“So far, Flourish has been an incredible success, and we hope to carry this momentum as we progress the next two Flourish projects in Palm Beach.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=371430]

Located across 1150-1164 Gold Coast Highway and 3 Sixth Avenue, the development will comprise two towers. The northern tower will deliver 154 apartments, while the southern tower will add a further 132 residences, helping address ongoing demand for new apartments in the tightly held coastal suburb.

Flourish Soleira will also feature the most extensive rooftop amenity offering ever delivered in Palm Beach.

The two towers will be connected by a skybridge, with residents gaining access to a rooftop recreation deck featuring a full-width swimming pool, hot and cold plunge pools, wellness spaces, a gymnasium, private dining facilities, massage treatment rooms, barbecue areas, a basketball court, golf simulator, indoor and outdoor dining spaces, sun lounges and extensive landscaping.

LPS Group is expected to start construction later this year.

Sherpa is already well advanced on construction of its debut Flourish project, Flourish Amargo, located just around the corner from Soleira. Meanwhile, Flourish Oasis, positioned opposite Amargo, recently commenced construction and has nearly sold out its collection of 47 apartments.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]

Sherpa unveils $500m mixed-use Palm Beach precinct, Flourish Soleira

Are mortgage holders set to get a reprieve from the RBA in 2026?

Big Four bank NAB believes so. They are now expecting the next move from the RBA to be a cut, rather than a hike, which they had pencilled in for August. They are unsure of the timing of the cut however, they note in their latest&nbsp;NAB Economics RBA Watch.

NAB Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said recent data suggests the economy has lost momentum and the outlook for rates has shifted, noting that the broader economic backdrop has changed since earlier in the year.

“The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain," Dr Auld said.

"In February, growth was above trend, the economy was operating above capacity and there was uncertainty over the restrictiveness of rates. None of these conditions exist today,” she outlined.

Dr Auld said recent data pointed to softer momentum across the economy while acknowledging that at the same time, uncertainty remains a key feature of the outlook.

“Both Q1 GDP data and the NAB business survey suggest momentum in the economy has slowed, meaning that growth has likely peaked for the cycle. That said, we are cognisant there is still considerable uncertainty around the outlook, both with respect to activity and inflation.”

Dr Auld said inflation risks and labour market outcomes would be important to watch.

“On the prices side, we are still forecasting above target core inflation through to mid-2027. Margins will compress and weaker labour market outcomes are a risk.”

She said tighter financial conditions are expected to weigh on housing and activity.

“Tighter financial conditions will be reflected in a slowing in house price growth and housing credit growth. In summary, we have greater conviction that the next move in rates is down, but less conviction on the timing.”

Mortgage relief? NAB forecasts RBA rate cut, not hike, after softer economic conditions

A local downsizer has splashed $6.5 million on a penthouse in Perifa's Alex &amp; Willow development in Crows Nest. 
&nbsp; 
The purchaser sold their long-held family home in the area before embarking on a six-month search for the right apartment. After inspecting a range of options across the Lower North Shore, the buyer returned to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/alex-willow-crows-nest-82-90-alexander-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Alex &amp; Willow</a>. 
&nbsp; 
The buyer profile reflects the project’s broader purchaser mix. <a>Alex &amp; Willow</a> has attracted predominantly local downsizers looking to transition from larger homes without compromising on space or quality, alongside a smaller cohort of upsizers and investors drawn to the project’s location and design credentials. 
&nbsp; 
The milestone sale comes as the project, developed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/perifa">Perifa</a>&nbsp;and delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/versatile-made-construction">Versatile Construction</a>, both part of Versatile Group, reaches 60 per cent sold.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=371325] 
&nbsp; 
Eddie Mansour, Managing Partner of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/ray-white-projects">Ray White Projects</a>, said the result demonstrates not only a headline price but also depth of demand. 
&nbsp; 
“This is an exceptional outcome and a clear reflection of sustained buyer demand for premium, well-located downsizer product,” Mansour said.

“We’re seeing a consistent pattern of local homeowners selling family residences and reinvesting into high-quality apartments that allow them to remain within their community. Alex &amp; Willow has resonated strongly with this group because it offers genuine scale, thoughtful design and immediate proximity to the village.” 
&nbsp; 
The sale reflects a broader and consistent trend of local downsizers actively seeking high-quality, low-maintenance residences close to established village centres. Agents report that demand for this product type has remained resilient, particularly where developments offer a rare combination of scale, design quality and walkable amenity. 
&nbsp;&nbsp; 
Fabrizio Perilli, Managing Director of Perifa and Versatile Group, said the sale marks a defining moment for the project. 
&nbsp; 
“The penthouse sale is a strong endorsement of the quality we have delivered, alongside our partners, and the clear demand from local downsizers for premium, boutique residences in this location,” Perilli said.&nbsp; 
&nbsp; 
“Most importantly, we’re proud to see the Alex &amp; Willow community beginning to take shape. As we move closer to completion, we’re looking forward to welcoming residents and seeing the project come to life.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=338516] 
&nbsp; 
Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/nettletontribe">Nettleton Tribe</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/richards-stanisich">Richards Stanisich</a>, Alex &amp; Willow is a boutique collection of generously sized two- and three-bedroom residences in the heart of Crows Nest village.&nbsp;

Completion is slated for early 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6680]

Alex & Willow, Crows Nest penthouse sells off the plan for $6.5 million

Fresh from launching the first stage of its Wollongong precinct, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/keira-place-wollongong-120-122-smith-street-wollongong-nsw-2500">Keira Place</a>, builder-developer Urban Property Group has unveiled plans for the next phase of the masterplanned community.

Now on public exhibition through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority pathway is a State Significant Development Application for a further 657 homes on the prominent gateway site opposite Beaton Park.

The proposal comprises three buildings, including two build-to-sell towers rising 25 and 30 storeys, delivering 391 apartments, alongside a 12-storey co-living building with 266 residences, making it one of the largest co-living proposals currently planned in regional New South Wales.

Of the apartments proposed in the build-to-sell towers, the majority, 310, are two-bedroom dwellings. The balance comprises 44 one-bedroom apartments and 37 three-bedroom residences. Apartment sizes range from around 50 sqm for one-bedroom homes to approximately 90 sqm for three-bedroom apartments.

<img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="19347059-1612-41a0-9c74-b86a657237f8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%2010.02.18%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sWXnaCcA.cIC6N8YT1dg5pJ2e1V3Z6z7" />

The submission says the proposal has evolved significantly from its original Housing Delivery Authority application following extensive consultation with the State Design Review Panel and Wollongong City Council.

The final scheme has been designed to align with the emerging vision for the Flinders Street Precinct, an area identified by Council as a future high-density mixed-use neighbourhood capable of accommodating substantial housing growth close to transport, employment and community infrastructure.

According to the design report prepared by COX Architecture, the development aims to "deliver a built outcome consistent with the future character of the Wollongong CBD while responding to the site's unique constraints and opportunities."

"Our vision for the next phase of the site evolution in Wollongong is grounded in three design pillars that guide the design response: place, natural environment and celebration," COX said.

"Inspired by its surroundings and grounded in the stories of place on Wodi Wodi Country, the design proposal acknowledges the established character of its setting while creating a unique and timeless identity that sits harmoniously within it.

"The design proposal responds to its specific site conditions, acknowledging the vegetation, climate, wind conditions and solar access of the site."

The architecture responds directly to the site's position between Wollongong's urban core and its natural landscape setting.

COX identified views towards Mount Keira and the Illawarra Escarpment as defining features of the site, while the upper levels of the towers will also capture expansive views across the city and out to the Pacific Ocean.

The design team has positioned the tallest buildings closer to the rail corridor, where overshadowing impacts can be better managed while establishing a landmark built form on the northern approach into the city.

<img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="79580d5b-500c-4ebf-9629-797146a4a694" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%209.51.59%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=WbTB1EKSG.KDfsfz0F3wp1QVa2oCMGR5" />

Urban Property Group secured the 11,000 sqm Smith Street site in 2022 and has since progressed plans for the broader Keira Place precinct.

Construction recently commenced on the first stage of Keira Place, which will deliver 150 apartments across two residential buildings, including 27 affordable housing apartments and 18 specialist disability accommodation dwellings, alongside activated ground-floor retail and commercial space.

Urban Co-CEO Patrick Elias said the commencement of construction marked a significant milestone for Wollongong and reflected the developer's long-term commitment to regional cities.

"Today's groundbreaking is about turning approvals into homes and moving quickly to deliver much-needed housing in Wollongong's city centre," Elias said.

"Keira Place will provide a diverse mix of homes close to jobs, transport and services, while setting a high benchmark for quality, durability and consumer protection."

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/groundbreaking-marks-start-of-construction-at-keira-place-in-wollongong-cbd">Groundbreaking marks start of construction at Keira Place in Wollongong CBD</a>

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Urban Property Group unveils trio of towers for next stage of new Wollongong precinct, Keira Place

Asian Markets

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EXPERT OBSERVER
It all feels a little 'contagious'. Among emerging markets, that is. For a while, one could point to specific challenges in specific economies. But in recent weeks, the sell-off has spread, and not always with good justification. Indonesia is a case in point: fundamentals look sound - certainly no less so than, say, a couple of years ago - yet the currency has slid to a 20-year low.
Contagions come in different guises: economic, financial, psychological -- though in reality, they combine elements of all three. Even if more insulated than others, emerging Asia is still exposed on all these fronts. The best prophylactic is usually swift tightening, both monetary and financial. If the current turmoil lingers, the region will have to deliver more of it. And that'll dent growth.
Your economist has been making the rounds of late, in Asia and Europe, gauging investor sentiment. It's been a rough summer for many, no doubt. But one hardly registers a sense of panic. Views remain differentiated, and Asia on the whole is still seen as relatively robust.
The headlines, though, remain challenging. And as veteran emerging market investors well know, pressures can swiftly spread, exacerbated by markets that are thinner and less liquid than those in the developed world.
So it's worth revisiting, in principle, what can cause 'contagion'. Three dimensions matter - overlapping and reinforcing each other, of course, but nonetheless conceptually distinct.
Economic contagion occurs when real sector linkages between markets prompt stress to spread. Here, Asia is less exposed to potential turmoil in other emerging markets. But common themes are on investor minds nonetheless: a slowing China, foremost, would hurt emerging markets everywhere. Evidence of strengthening Mainland demand would thus do a lot to stabilize EM sentiment.
Broadly, trade tensions between the US and China are also frequently cited - both in terms of cooling Chinese demand, and in terms of the broader threat the dispute presents to global trade. Here, Asia is especially exposed, via supply chains that tie into China and the broader dependence on global trade.
Financial contagion refers to investor positioning. In the simplest case, should an EM investor face redemptions, but difficulties of getting out of positions in the most hard-pressed markets, he or she could be forced to liquidate positions elsewhere, including in economies with sound fundamentals.
For the moment, this doesn't appear to be the case. But the point is that emerging Asia could be affected by this even if the fundamentals of many economies in the region appear comparatively robust.
Psychological contagion is perhaps a little harder to define, but material nonetheless: a given market sells off even if there are no obvious economic or financial linkages to others. Apart from simply frayed nerves, this can be caused by a 'paradigm shift', where, say, investors suddenly question to wisdom of investing in emerging markets at all.
Contagion, of any form, is best prevented with swift and early action. In emerging markets, this usually entails tighter macroeconomic policy (and, if needed, structural reforms).
If the current market jitters persist, more may be needed across emerging Asia as well. Less so, of course, in countries with robust current account surpluses than in others. But even a strong balance of payments position, if the stock of non-resident liabilities is sufficiently large, doesn't obviate the need for some tightening.
Here's to the headlines turning a little more soothing soon.
Frederic Neumann is the Co-head of Asia Economics Research at HSBC
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Why the contagion is spreading among emerging Asian markets: HSBC's Frederic Nuemann

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Savills office in Vietnam has merged with Alternaty, a leading hotel advisory in Indochina, as part of its efforts to tap into the growing hospitality markets of the Asia Pacific, particularly South East Asia. 
Alternaty’s employees will join the hotel business at Savills and will be based in Savills’ Ho Chi Minh City office. 
Savills Hotel Asia Pacific, led by Raymond Clement, consists of individuals with experience and a strong track record across the tourism and hospitality sector. Mauro Gasparotti and Rudolf Hever will both take the role of director, Hotels, Savills Asia Pacific, driving business in Vietnam and South East Asia. 
On the team from Alternaty, Savills Vietnam managing director Neil MacGregor said: “The Alternaty team, led by Mauro and Rudolf, are well known as market leaders in hospitality in the IndoChina region. Their capabilities will add depth to establish a robust platform, offering a complete suite of services for the hotel development lifecycle.”
The merger will help Savills get a platform to tap into IndoChina’s rapidly growing hospitality markets, with Vietnam itself seeing a 26% increase in foreign arrivals in 2016.  
With a growing number of investors actively seeking hotel and resort assets, this will consolidate Savills’ investment brokerage platform.
The Hotel Advisory Services in Vietnam will provide hotel and resort market research including feasibility studies, operator selection, asset management and investment brokerage.
“We are delighted to become part of the Savills family and to leverage Savills’ extensive operation, sales and marketing platform in the region,” said Mauro Gasparotti, executive director at Alternaty.
Rudolf Hever, director of Hotels, Savills Asia Pacific said more players were entering Vietnam’s growing market with total hotel transaction volumes at nearly $500 million in the last 24 months. The number of five-star hotel rooms in 2015 soared by 37% year-on-year to reach 24,000 units, he added. 
This growing trend in hotel development can be seen across hotel segments with an estimated 15%-20% growth in total hotel supply in the short term. Besides the key cities of HCMC and Hanoi, up and coming markets such as Phu Quoc, Danang and Nha Trang are also catching investor attention. 
Alternaty is a boutique real estate consultancy which was founded in 2012. It is known for its contacts and track record in commercial property, hotel and resort advisory throughout the IndoChina region. 
The Savills Hotels team valued and advised on US$9.1 billion worth of hotel assets in Asia Pacific in 2016. Most recently, it has led the sale of the Anantara Ubud Bali, the Duxton Hotel Saigon and the Hyatt Regency Osaka.
 
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Savills Vietnam merges with hotel advisory firm

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In a world racked by political uncertainty induced by Brexit negotiations, European elections and a new presidency in the US, the Asian markets appear to have maintained their appeal in 2016, according to Savills’ latest report.
"Office yields across all major cities hardened over the second half of last year and we believe there is still some (limited) scope for them to fall further in 1H/2017; the low interest rate environment, the ongoing ‘search for yield’ and increasing allocations to real estate are all considered to be positives for the sector," the report stated.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-21%20at%205.21.11%20pm.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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One of the most significant challenges for investors is a lack of prime office stock, however, and volumes have fallen consistently compared with 2015, a situation which is unlikely to reverse any time soon.
This lack of liquidity across most asset classes has arguably been masked by the above average number of portfolio deals recorded over the second half.
Scarcity of assets has resulted in money accumulating on the sidelines, causing fundraising to decline versus the previous year.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-21%20at%205.21.22%20pm.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-21%20at%205.21.22%20pm.jpg" alt="">
Despite its inward focus, Asian real estate capital has continued to explore overseas markets with the US attracting the lion’s share of deals, followed by the UK.
Cross border activity in 2016 was dominated by China, South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong in that order while South Korean activity registered the highest rate of increase.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-21%20at%205.21.37%20pm.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-21%20at%205.21.37%20pm.jpg" alt="">
It will be interesting to see how Asian capital reacts to rate hikes  by the Federal Reserve and a strengthening US dollar set against a less predictable policy landscape in 2017 if that  is what comes to pass.
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Asian commercial property markets continue to maintain their appeal despite uncertainty: Savills

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GUEST OBSERVER
Yep, it happened. And now that the dust is settling, the challenges for Asia are becoming more evident. In sum, 2017 looks like it’ll be the most difficult for the region since 2009. It’s not, of course, entirely the President-elect’s fault – his administration, after all, hasn’t even outlined a detailed policy agenda yet, let alone taken the reins of power. 
Plus, Asia’s travails are partly self-inflicted. Still, if the past few weeks are any indication, things are bound to get a lot tougher. Trade is one thing, with exports already struggling and little prospect for a policy-driven rebound. The bigger issue, though, is the dollar and rates. Financial conditions are tightening across the region, putting a squeeze on domestic demand. It’ll get bumpier, still. 
As impressive as the rebound from the Global Financial Crisis has been, Asia has over recent years merely limped along. The taper tantrum of 2013 was a wake-up call, but the region managed to hit the snooze button for a little while longer, avoiding outright financial stress. 
But growth continued to decelerate, with exports in particular struggling to make meaningful headways since late 2014 and debt saturation weighing on local demand. It’s tempting to think that the latest market gyrations will pass, too, without more substantial harm. But, with every iteration, prospects dim further. 
Start with exports. These, as noted, have struggled for some time now. A combination of factors is to blame, including weak capex the world over, the commodity investment slump, creeping protectionism (or at least the absence of major trade liberalization over the past decade), supply chain disintegration, and an expenditure shift towards services. 
The question for 2017 is whether exports will at last rebound. We have our doubts. An acceleration in US growth should help. Yet this may be offset by continued sluggish demand elsewhere in the world, not least in emerging markets. 
The Trump administration may also help spur a recovery in US private capex, via deregulation and other, purportedly more business friendly policies. Yet it will take time before the full impact is felt, leaving this to be, presumably, more of a story for 2018 and beyond. 
Key to watch will be a deal with Congress to repatriate offshore cash holding by US companies, but it’s not clear that this in itself will send capex soaring if record-low rates previously failed to do so. A promised 1 trillion US dollar infrastructure push could help as well, if this will ever be passed by Congress in its entirety. But again: this too, will stretch out over many years. 
At the same time, a Trump administration may adopt a more protectionist stance. True, details aren’t available yet, apart from some vague talk about punitive action and the promise to shelve the TPP. 
This, no doubt, will restrain exports, even if the impact will likely be more industry specific. But note that uncertainty over trade policy in itself will promptly weigh on growth in Asia by curtailing investment (why invest in further capacity if it remains unclear that the resulting goods can be sold?). In this sense, a pick-up in US capex would partly come at the expense of investment spending in Asia. 
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It’s hard to see, therefore, a meaningful revival in Asia trade for the foreseeable future. 
However, the bigger issues, at least in the near-term, are US rates and the dollar. The spike in US yields has certainly caught markets by surprise. And, if these revert in due course, the damage might prove limited. But accelerating US growth, fuelled by more generous fiscal spending, could make it easier for the Fed to hike rates. 
In fact, HSBC’s chief US economist Kevin Logan, now expects three Fed hikes over the coming year (up from two). 
This amounts to a stiff headwind for Asian economies that have come to rely on rapid credit growth to sustain demand in recent years. Even China, still partly protected by capital controls, is not immune to this: with the PBoC possibly needing to forego, at the very least, further aggressive easing in order to stabilize FX demand. Elsewhere, rate cuts are also becoming a more remote prospect, such as in Malaysia where policy room is shrinking even as growth sags. 
Currency moves are compounding the effect. While exchange rate depreciation should, in principle, provide a boost to Asian exporters, the resulting tightening in financial conditions (higher rates) could more than offset the loosening of monetary conditions (weaker exchange rates). 
First, growth is currently hugely credit intensive and debt levels high, amplifying the drag of higher rates. Second, for the reasons cited, US import demand, despite accelerating growth, will likely be insufficient to compensate for this. Third, contrary to previous episodes of exchange rate weakness, the current FX sell-off is broad-based and, notably, includes the renminbi, thus leaving few Asian exporters with a meaningful gain in competitiveness. 
Challenging stuff. But the effects are not necessarily uniform across Asia. Indonesia, the Philippines, and India are likely to be more shielded from the “Trump effect” given their low debt and low export exposures. 
By contrast, Malaysia, China, Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand should more affected. The winner, if one can call it that, is the Bank of Japan, with the weaker yen taking the pressure off. But that’s not much of a consolation: Japan, too, will in the end need exports to do a lot better to cure its growth malaise. 
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Frederic Neumann is co-head of Asian Economics Research, HSBC, and can be contacted <a href="https://www.hsbc.com.au" target="_blank">here</a>.
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