<p>A landmark former orphanage site in Surrey Hills could be transformed into a new residential community under plans lodged by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/antipodean-land-developments">Antipodean Land Developments</a> that would deliver 76 apartments and townhouses while restoring some of the suburb's most significant heritage buildings.</p>

<p>The burgeoninng Melbourne-based developer has submitted plans for the 9,158 sqm site at 1 Kent Road and 24 Durham Road, home to the former St Joseph's Home for Destitute Children, a historic institutional complex dating back to the late 19th century. The proposal seeks to adaptively reuse several heritage buildings while introducing two new four-storey residential buildings set within extensive landscaped grounds.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a> and Kerstin Thompson Architects, the project has been conceived as a contemporary residential village embedded within a restored heritage precinct. The development team describes the design approach as "The Village in the Garden," with new buildings positioned among mature landscaping by OCULUS and significant heritage structures.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="44ec8c1b-c0b6-44ae-859e-5811b3e6a023" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design%20%281%29.png?VersionId=p.p1_KFh4iQoV4nisdnPfQBAsWNi7m79" /></p>

<p>The proposal would deliver 76 dwellings comprising a mix of apartments and duplex-style residences, significantly increasing housing supply on one of the largest privately held residential landholdings in Surrey Hills. The development includes 127 car spaces, 24 bicycle spaces and more than 1,000 sqm of communal amenity, with the existing chapel building earmarked for conversion into resident facilities.</p>

<p>According to the planning submission, the project centres on the restoration and adaptive reuse of the site's most significant heritage assets, including the original c.1889 St Joseph's building, the chapel designed by architect Augustus Andrew Fritsch, and the historic brick perimeter walls and entry gates. The proposal also incorporates the retention of other contributory buildings including the former infirmary and school building.</p>

<p>Tract Consultants, in the planning report accompanying the application, said the scheme had been shaped through extensive heritage analysis and design development.</p>

<p>"The shared vision for the Site by the project team has culminated in a scheme which successfully breathes life back into a historic site while delivering upon the objectives of Victoria's Housing Statement in a carefully curated and contextually responsive manner."</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7263b7d8-95ea-400f-9531-6ca7d22c3c33" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design%20%282%29.png?VersionId=4cR1tiWOsDpgxEOwZi5vVFcyvvOsYkIE" /></p>

<p>The proposal is being assessed under Victoria's Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway. As part of the application, three per cent of the project's residential development cost would be contributed to the Social Housing Growth Fund. The development would also provide a diverse mix of one, two and three-bedroom residences targeting a broader range of buyers than typically found in Surrey Hills' detached housing market.</p>

<p>Sustainability initiatives include an anticipated 66 per cent BESS score, natural cross-ventilation to 80 per cent of apartments, 28 per cent deep soil landscaping and a canopy cover outcome exceeding local planning requirements. The proposal also sets aside more than 1,083 sqm for communal indoor and outdoor resident amenity spaces.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="33fad46f-fe26-4d0a-acfd-6b776e1c6a3d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design.png?VersionId=D9F6WVSyYCtGvSUmith35LRp6R7PQkw_" /></p>

<p>Planning documents describe the property as one of the largest underutilised residential sites in Surrey Hills, arguing it presents a rare opportunity to introduce "missing middle" housing in an established inner-eastern suburb while preserving and revitalising a significant heritage precinct.</p>

<p>Antipodean Land Developments has built a reputation for design-focused residential projects across Melbourne, particularly in the medium-density sector. Previous developments include Neighbourhood in Brunswick East, delivered with Breathe Architecture, and Balfe Park Lane, designed by Kerstin Thompson Architects.</p>

<p>They've been very active in site acquisition as they build out their future development pipeline. They recently launched Thornubury House, 45 apartments above a mix of commercial, retail, and food and beverage tenancies, and have plans for a boutique project in Fitzroy and another <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/vic/antipodean-plan-apartments-for-deepdenes-missing-middle-on-whitehorse-road">"missing middle" project</a> on Deepdene's Whitehorse Road.</p>


Joel Robinson

First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills

<p>Developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/auyin-property-development">Auyin</a> is the latest to turn to the Victorian Government's Development Facilitation Program in an effort to secure approval for its long-planned, mixed-use project in Elsternwick.</p>

<p>In 2018, Auyin lodged plans with Glen Eira City Council for a 14-storey building, however Council approved a reduced eight-storey scheme. A subsequent VCAT appeal in 2019 upheld the eight-storey height limit.</p>

<p>The project was later amended to nine storeys, but Auyin is now seeking to revive something closer to its original vision. The developer argues that the planning context has evolved significantly over the past decade, particularly within the Elsternwick Activity Centre, where higher-density development has increasingly been encouraged along Glen Huntly Road.</p>

<p>The proposal would transform the 1,239 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/7-12-horne-street-elsternwick-vic-3185">7-15 Horne Street</a>, opposite Elsternwick Railway Station, into a 13-storey residential and retail development designed by CBG Architects, with 40 apartments</p>

<p>The site currently comprises three commercial properties.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: 13-storey mixed-use tower planned for Elsternwick activity centre" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5f465dd4-509b-4082-a669-0253b313914b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/elsternwick%20podium.png?VersionId=72frWi0SmQ5AVJ3ARRhX5ILUYObhTm7x" /></p>

<p>The proposed apartment mix comprises 25 two-bedroom and 15 three-bedroom residences above 200 sqm of retail space at ground level. Residents would have access to a 90 sqm wellness facility, a 351 sqm communal indoor and outdoor terrace on the third level, and extensive landscaped areas throughout the development. A publicly accessible 135 sqm plaza would be created on the north-east corner of the site, providing seating, landscaping, and a new gathering space adjoining Horne Street.</p>

<p>The design adopts a four-storey podium that references the finer-grain character of the surrounding streetscape, with the upper tower recessed behind generous setbacks on all boundaries.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: 13-storey mixed-use tower planned for Elsternwick activity centre" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e637e763-2abc-4c34-a0aa-5c7ad36fae18" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/elsternwick%20open.png?VersionId=J1AoOpZgTyaF.KeeFSX6lMjEScX8KKRi" /></p>

<p>A key element of the proposal is the reconfiguration and widening of the surrounding laneways. Vehicle access would be retained from Lois Lane, with upgraded pedestrian connections linking Ross Street and Horne Street. The development would provide 58 residential car spaces, two retail car spaces, and 52 bicycle spaces across two basement levels and ground-floor facilities.</p>

<p>Architecturally, the building draws inspiration from the established character of Elsternwick Village. The façade combines dark charcoal brickwork, textured concrete, bronze-toned metal detailing, and extensive planting integrated into podium and tower levels. The design also incorporates a chamfered corner treatment and publicly accessible plaza intended to strengthen pedestrian activity around the station precinct.</p>

<p>Elsternwick's last new development completion was&nbsp;EVA Elsternwick by Pitard late last year. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/milieu-property">Milieu</a> is working away on its nature-led neighbourhood, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/elsternwick-gardens-by-milieu-8-gordon-street-elsternwick-vic-3185">Elsternwick Gardens</a>, on Gordon Street, with its first stage expected to complete next year.</p>


First look: Auyin seeks mixed-use apartment project in growing Elsternwick Activity Centre

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/otium-parkdale-123-125-como-parade-east-parkdale-vic-3195">Otium Parkdale</a>, the 13-residence boutique development by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/huxtable-property">Huxtable Property</a>, has entered its final stages of delivery, with completion expected within the coming month and more than half of the residences sold.</p>

<p>The Como Parade East project is nearing the finish line at a time when opportunities to purchase new apartments in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parkdale-vic-3195">Parkdale</a> remain exceptionally limited. Fewer than 10 per cent of dwellings in the bayside suburb are apartments, making developments like Otium a relatively rare addition to a market traditionally dominated by detached housing.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134974 project_image_fid=5427]</p>

<p>The three-level development comprises 13 residences, including ten two-bedroom apartments and three larger three-bedroom homes, all positioned above a secure basement car park.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/almeida-architects">Almeida Architects</a> with a strong connection to its coastal surroundings, Otium combines red brick, exposed concrete and dark metal detailing with integrated landscaping and greenery. Expansive glazing, generous balconies and terraces have been incorporated throughout the design to maximise natural light and reinforce indoor-outdoor living.</p>

<p>Inside, the residences feature engineered European oak flooring, natural and reconstituted stone benchtops, Bosch kitchen appliances, ducted heating and cooling, lift access and secure entry systems. The larger three-bedroom residences on the upper level have been designed with house-like proportions, while the two-bedroom apartments prioritise functionality, flexibility and low-maintenance living.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134974 project_image_fid=5421]</p>

<p>The project is now in its final stages, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/labco">Labco</a> completing the remaining landscaping and external finishing works following the completion of the residences' interiors.</p>

<p>Otium's location within the heart of Parkdale continues to underpin its appeal. Residents will be just steps from local cafés, restaurants, shops and the newly elevated Parkdale Station, while the beach is less than a kilometre away.</p>

<p>With the project tracking ahead of schedule, buyers can currently secure a residence with a five per cent deposit and benefit from settlement terms of up to eight months. The advanced stage of construction also provides buyers with the opportunity to walk through the near-complete residences and experience the quality and finishes firsthand ahead of completion.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134974]</p>


Otium Parkdale enters final month before completion as rare apartment opportunity nears sellout

<p>A new boutique apartment development is entering the market in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/chermside-qld-4032">Chermside</a>, with Brisbane-based developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ausdev">Ausdev</a> bringing 33 residences to a well-connected pocket of Brisbane's north.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/parkdrive-apartments-chermside-25-sammells-drive-chermside-qld-4032">Parkdrive Apartments</a>, at 25 Sammells Drive, will comprise a mix of one- and two-bedroom residences positioned within walking distance of Westfield Chermside, The Prince Charles Hospital, and Bradbury Park.</p>

<p>Established in 1989, Ausdev has a long-standing presence across both development and construction, with Parkdrive Apartments representing its latest residential project in Brisbane's northern suburbs.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=152125 project_image_fid=363778]</p>

<p>The development has been designed around open-plan living and natural light, with residences featuring stone benchtops, timber cabinetry, BOSCH appliances, and private balconies that extend the living areas outdoors.</p>

<p>Kitchens are positioned as the centrepiece of the homes, incorporating natural material palettes and integrated appliances, while bathrooms have been designed with a focus on functionality and understated finishes.</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a communal barbecue and entertaining area on Level 3, providing shared outdoor space within the development. Secure parking and lift access are also incorporated into the building.</p>

<p>The project will deliver a limited collection of 33 apartments, with one-bedroom residences priced from $749,000.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=152125 project_image_fid=363782]</p>

<p>Beyond the building itself, the location places residents within easy reach of several of Chermside's key amenities. Bradbury Park is around 350 metres away, while Westfield Chermside is approximately 1.3 kilometres from the site. The Prince Charles Hospital is located within 750 metres, and the Chermside Bus Interchange is around 1.5 kilometres away, providing connections across Brisbane.</p>

<p>Parkdrive Apartments adds to the growing residential pipeline in Chermside, a suburb that continues to evolve as a major retail, healthcare, and transport hub for Brisbane's north.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152125]</p>


Ausdev introduces boutique Parkdrive Apartments to Chermside's growing centre

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/skymark-group">Skymark</a>'s boutique Cronulla development Solis has secured a 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy through Resilience Insurance, providing buyers of the 16-residence building on Ewos Parade with structural and waterproofing protection that extends a decade beyond the building's completion.</p>

<p>Currently under construction and due for completion in late 2027, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/solis-cronulla-8-ewos-parade-cronulla-nsw-2230">Solis</a> is one of a small number of new developments in the Sutherland Shire to carry Resilience LDI coverage, a distinction that carries increasing weight as buyer confidence in the off-the-plan sector continues to be shaped by how developers stand behind their product.</p>

<p>Latent Defects Insurance, which entered the Australian market in 2022 when Resilience Insurance was approved to offer the cover, protects buyers against major structural or waterproofing defects for ten years post-completion. Unlike traditional statutory warranties, it operates as a first-resort policy, if a covered defect arises, the insurer responds directly, without the buyer needing to pursue the builder or developer through a lengthy claims process.</p>

<p>Resilience Insurance CEO Corey Nugent has noted that the product addresses something fundamental to the new apartment market.</p>

<p>"The overarching feedback from prospective buyers in the new development space is that they want more confidence and assurances around the quality of the build," Nugent says.</p>

<p>"Resilience Insurance Latent Defects Insurance not only gives them complete peace of mind for 10 years, but it shows the developer they are buying from is standing by their product."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370898]</p>

<p>For Solis, the Resilience LDI policy adds a meaningful layer of accountability to an already considered project. The development comprises nine two-bedroom and seven three-bedroom residences, including one dual-level three-bedroom apartment, across a five-storey building on Ewos Parade, positioned between Shelly Beach and South Cronulla.</p>

<p>Garden apartments connect directly to private landscaped courtyards, while upper-level homes capture beach views to the east from level four and above.&nbsp;</p>

<p>All 16 residences include at least one balcony or courtyard, and select apartments on the upper floors feature bar areas and secondary flexible living spaces.</p>

<p>Hiba Sander, Managing Director of Skymark, says Solis offers a rare balance, nestled between the quiet beauty of secluded beaches and the lively charm of South Cronulla's esplanade.</p>

<p>"It's a place to choose your pace and live gracefully, seaside'," Sander says.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370900]</p>

<p>The architecture, designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ida-design-group">IDA Design Group</a>'s Michael Trinh, draws from the natural erosion patterns of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/cronulla-nsw-2230">Cronulla</a>'s sandstone headlands, translating the organic forms of the coastline into soft curves, pavilion-style massing, and a material palette chosen for longevity in a salt-tinged environment.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Textured natural stone, soft renders, and timber-look battens reference the tones of the surrounding cliffs, while the building has been oriented to maximise natural light and passive ventilation, with primary living spaces facing north and east to capture morning sun and sea breezes.</p>

<p>"At Solis, our aim was to create architecture that feels quietly confident, grounded in natural materials like stone and timber, and elevated by light and landscape," Trinh says.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"The buildings are designed to sit gently within their coastal surrounds, with expansive glazing and abundant greenery creating a seamless dialogue between inside and out."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370897]</p>

<p>Interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hot-black">Hot Black</a> carry the same material language through to every room. Kitchens feature integrated Gaggenau appliances, sculpted stone benchtops, and Lo &amp; Co joinery, while bathrooms feature natural stone, timber, and brushed metal finishes.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Hot Black Founder and Design Director Sophie Safrin describes the intent as one of considered restraint: "At Solis, every detail has been thoughtfully considered to create a timeless coastal retreat, calm, refined, and effortlessly liveable. From natural finishes to seamless indoor-outdoor flow, Solis offers a quiet elegance that's deeply connected to its surroundings.</p>

<p>The landscape, designed by Julian Brady of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/sitedesignstudios">Site Design Studios</a>, treats green space as an integral part of the resident experience rather than an afterthought.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"Gentle curves and layered native plantings mirror the ebb and flow of the ocean," Julian Brady says, "creating a serene connection between architecture and place."&nbsp;</p>

<p>Coco Republic has provided bespoke furniture packages tailored to the project's coastal palette.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370899]</p>

<p>Skymark has an established track record in the Sutherland Shire, with a portfolio spanning Cronulla, Woolooware and Burraneer that includes Isla, Sylva, Bask, Shells, Sula and Mist. Securing LDI on Solis reflects a broader shift in how the developer is positioning its buildings to buyers, at a time when Resilience Insurance expects the policy to become mandatory in New South Wales by 2028.</p>

<p>Sales at Solis are launching soon through Ray White Projects, with an official event scheduled for 11 June. Enquire for more information.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150499]</p>


Skymark takes out 10-year Resilience Insurance LDI at Solis Cronulla

Apartment Market

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<p>Considering and discussing, the purchase of an investment property opens up all sorts of arguments, discussions and from time to time, polarizes the parties involved.</p>
<p>This is not to mention also spoiling a friendly neighborhood BBQ or coffee catch-up with a friend.</p>
<p>One of the many and current topics of discussion is whether we should buy new and off-the-plan apartments in one of the main three capital cities of Australia; namely Brisbane, Melbourne or Sydney?</p>
<p>I have taught and have written about off-the-plan purchases. The following reason for buying can be used as a blanket approach when considering a new apartment purchase. Notwithstanding, this strategy may be considered across any city or development, as a matter of course.</p>
<p>The main beneficial reason why an investor would buy a new apartment, before completion, was simple to understand in previous years. Developers needed pre-sales to support their construction application for the banks.</p>
<p>Pre-sales which are now predominantly called off-the-plan sales, had one major attraction in the past, which now appears to be lost. As an off-the-plan purchaser, there was a benefit; we bought early and saved from 5 and up to 10 percent the value “at the time” off the purchase price. <em>This was measured against prices of similar completed apartments, on the day</em>.</p>
<p><strong>The current trend and market for off-the-plan purchases.</strong></p>
<p>The current trend however, has bucked the reasoning behind the support given to developers with pre-sales.</p>
<p>On the one hand, developers have become greedy and with the support of the financial sector, have increased the asking price.</p>
<p>In other words, we now pay tomorrow’s market value for the apartment and with no added discount as a benefit. The underlying question is “but why?” This is all because of the highly speculative new client base: the overseas investors that have come in and in large numbers. As well as the Self-Managed Super Fund (SMSF) vehicles, set up for local speculators and investors.</p>
<p>Both overseas and SMSF investors are fueling the new-apartment development bubble as has never been seen before. With this in mind, developers and marketing companies have been able to increase:</p>
<ul>
<li>The end property values to account for market forces that has seen a huge upswing in prices; and</li>
<li>To pay for the high commissions paid out to marketing agents and the financial sector. Commissions in the tune of 8-10 percent.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>The repercussion of industry greed</strong></p>
<p>The outcome of the high prices charged for new-apartments and higher commissions than the industry norm is a no-brainer; the losers are the buyers, most of the time.</p>
<p>For years, I have been discussing the need for the Real Estate Industry and watchdogs to tighten controls against this push, but my calls have fallen on deaf ears and the outcome is:</p>
<p>1)     We now have an understated over-supply of apartments across Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney;</p>
<p>2)     The rental market cannot and will not effectively absorb the new supply, which will have an increase in rental vacancies; and</p>
<p>3)     The inevitable, valuers will value down apartments to safeguard their client’s interest, the banks.</p>
<p>We may well see drops of 20-30 percent in values and in the near future. Likewise, rental yields will diminish to 60-70 percent off what they are today.</p>
<p><strong>Supply chart of apartments to be completed in the next 12-24 moths</strong></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/08/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-10%20at%208.31.56%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/08/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-10%20at%208.31.56%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p><strong>Where to from here?    </strong></p>
<p>I have been asked by friends, clients and family; where to from here? I have shared the following with them for over 12 months and only now the mainstream are coming to the party.</p>
<p>1)     Hold and wait; wait for another 6-12 months before looking to buy, if you need to buy new.</p>
<p>2)     Most of the new apartments are under-engineered, badly built and come with a lot of issues.</p>
<p>3)     Have you noticed that most spruikers try and only sell you, new and off-the-plan apartments? and</p>
<p>4)     Communicate as much as possible with local real estate agents that don’t have invested interest in the new development. After all, they may be the ones that will manage the property for you.</p>
<p>The caption below is an article recently posted by a colleague of mine. It is a timely argument of what is to come. This is all due to the huge oversupply of high-rise development. When we match this information with the number of apartments currently under construction; it appears to be the makings of a nightmare for investors in high-rise developments. </p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/08/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-10%20at%208.31.43%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/08/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-10%20at%208.31.43%20AM.png" alt=""> </p>
<p>The full article may be found on: https://mortgageeproperty.com/foreign-investor-settlement-risk-soaring.html</p>
<p><strong>Tips in managing your investment</strong></p>
<p>If you do find yourself in a position that you have bought an off-the-plan apartment and your property is in the final stages of settlement; I recommend the following tip, to minimize long term vacancy.</p>
<p><em>Don’t rely on the selling agent’s “marketing company” to lease your apartment, particularly if they were the leading agency in the sales phase. You only have to ask; how many other investor’s apartments are they also trying to lease out? </em></p>
<p>Now if you are looking to invest in new apartments, our old and proven theory remains steadfast. Invest in low set building blocks and preferably one’s that have no more than three levels.</p>
<p>More importantly, be sure to and look out for the next article on: buying in low set building blocks, versus high rise apartment blocks; winners and losers.  </p>
<p><em><span>EDWIN ALMEIDA</span> is licensee in charge of <a href="https://www.just-think.com.au/" target="_blank">Just Think Real Estate</a>.<a href="https://www.just-thin.com.au/"><br></a></em></p>
<p><em>He is also the creator of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/user/JustThinkProperty" target="_blank">Oz Real Estate.TV</a> and a presenter for <a href="https://propertyinvestingvault.com/" target="_blank">propertyinvestingvault.com</a>.</em></p>
</body></html>

ealmedia-arK4DBYLjS

Bumpy ride buying new apartments in Melbourne, Brisbane and Sydney: Edwin Almeida

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Apartment markets are leading Melbourne’s recovery from the post-boom downturn. Hotspotting’s Spring survey of sales activity and prices provides strong evidence of revival in Melbourne, with units outdoing houses on price performance.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Our survey has identified 73 markets where median prices have risen in the past 12 months and 79% of them are apartment markets. Examples include Fairfield (up 20%), Glen Huntly (up 15%), Niddrie (up 15%), Toorak (up 17%), West Footscray (up 15%) and Yarranville (up 15%)</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The most striking trend is the number of suburbs where the median house price is down but the apartment median is up: 53 suburbs across the Melbourne metro area have this scenario.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Examples include:<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Brighton (house median down 18% but unit median up 8%);<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Doncaster East (houses down 13% but units up 9%);<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Heidelberg (houses down 13% but units up 11%;<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Highett (houses down 20% but units up 9%);<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Kensington (houses down 14% but units up 8%);<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Mt Waverley (houses down 14% but units up 6%);<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Ormond (houses down 16% but units up 13%); and<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">West Footscray (houses down 10% but units up 15%).</span></li>
</ul>
<p class="p2">Melbourne’s most expensive market, Toorak, provides the most stark contrast: the median house price has dropped 29% to $3.1 million in the past year, while the median apartment price has risen 17% to $985,000.</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">There are also 48 markets where the median price is down in annual terms but has risen in the latest quarter – and 30 of those (63%) are apartment markets.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Examples include Heidelberg Heights apartments, where the median is down 8% annually but up 4.6% in the latest quarter and South Melbourne apartments, where the median is down 4% annually but up 2.8% in the latest quarter.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">There are 129 markets where median prices are down 10% or more in annual terms and 110 of them are house markets – only 19 of the markets with big decline are unit markets.</span> </p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Many of those with biggest annual decreases (above 20%) are suburbs where median house prices are above $1 million – or were before the recent decline. They include Box Hill, Box Hill South, Bulleen, Carlton, Hawthorn, Hawthorn East, Highett, Hughesdale, Ivanhoe, Ivanhoe East, Mont Albert North, North Melbourne, South Yarra, St Kilda and Toorak.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Hotspotting’s Spring survey of sales activity shows solid evidence of the recovery that has emerged in Melbourne since the Federal Election result in May. The previous two years had shown the decline from the peak of the boom – at first gradual and then dramatic.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The previous eight quarterly surveys had shown the following numbers of suburbs with growth markets (rising numbers of sales): 97, 60, 35, 30, 12, 9, 9, 2 and 0. That pronounced pattern of decline in sales activity heralded the end of Melbourne’s boom, which eventually led to decreases in median prices in the past 18 months.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">This latest survey shows the first evidence of turnaround. It identifies 20 suburbs with growing sales activity, with most of them in Melbourne’s middle market. Declining markets still outnumber rising ones, but the number of suburbs with downward patterns in sales activity has reduced from 113 in the Winter survey to 72 in this Spring survey.</span> </p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Of the 30 LGAs across the Melbourne metro area, there are four LGAs with at least one growth suburb and no declining ones: Darebin (with Northcote as a growth market), Manningham (Templestowe and Donvale), Moonee Valley (Ascot Vale) and Nillumbik (Diamond Creek and Eltham).</span> </p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Other Middle Melbourne areas with growth markets include the LGAs of Kingston (Moorabbin and Mordialloc), Moreland (Brunswick East and Oak Park) and Bayside (Hampton and Sandringham).</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Most of the suburbs with rising sales trajectories have median house prices in the range from $800,000 to $1.2 million.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">While the number of suburbs with declining activity is less than the previous survey, there are precincts where serious decline remains evident – many of them outer ring areas which had previously showed resilience against the post-boom downturn. They include the LGAs of Mornington Peninsula, Melton, Hume, Wyndham and Casey.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Some of the more upmarket areas also continue to struggle including the LGAs of Glen Eira, Melbourne and Whitehorse.</span> </p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Some municipalities demonstrate the folly of generalisation about property markets, with a range of contrasting scenarios playing out within the one precinct. The LGAs of Brimbank, Kingston and Whittlesea all have suburbs with diverse outcomes: some rising, some plateau, some consistency and some declining.</span> </p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">T<em>erry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au</em></span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s3"><a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au"><em>ryder@hotspotting.com.au</em></a></span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s1"><em>twitter.com/hotspotting</em></span></p>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Apartment markets leading Melbourne's real estate recovery: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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<div>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its Statement on Monetary Policy for February 2017.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Lots to digest as usual!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Firstly, and probably the most interesting part, I thought, was the section concerning inflation forecasts. </div>
<p><span>The RBA sees inflation returning to the 2 to 3 percent target range, and as such interest rates are now likely to be on hold unless the labour market deteriorates from here. </span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/13/RBA1.jpg">Click to enlarge</a></p>
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<div> </div>
<div>Secondly, it also looks as though forecasts for growth in the economy are quite upbeat, tracking at around 3 per cent in 2017/18 and 3 per cent in 2018/19, before potentially rising further. </div>
<div> </div>
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<p> <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/13/RBA2.jpg" alt=""></p>
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<div>Finally, housing.<br><br>There was lots to look at in terms of housing markets, although nothing particularly ground-breaking. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Rental price growth is soft, apartment approvals are falling sharply, and turnover in the housing market is well below the average since 2008, reflecting low levels of stock on the market.</div>
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<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>On another related point, it's interesting to see that after copping a huge amount of heat for possibly 'overstating' dwelling price growth, CoreLogic's index has now seen other data providers catch up towards a similar rate of growth.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-fwYuSVH_zK0/WJ1xtkyg0nI/AAAAAAAAhq4/yj9DVQpv9DcgG2YagkiH7egejLALYgDhQCLcB/s1600/RBA1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div class="separator">
<em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of </em><a href="https://allenwargent.com/"><span class="s2"><em>AllenWargent</em></span></a><em> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and </em><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/"><span class="s2"><em>blogger</em></span></a><em>. </em>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Apartment approvals are falling sharply: Pete Wargent

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<p>Over the year to March 2017 Victoria delivered an impressive 66,085 new dwellings, 31,337 of which were attached dwellings of one sort or another.</p>
<p>Yet annual population growth has exploded to +146,600.</p>
<p>In short, you can basically forget any chance of an oversupply in Melbourne until population growth comes down from the stratosphere. </p>
<p>It's not happening, and indeed Melbourne's vacancy rates appear to be approaching decade lows.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/13/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
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<br><div>Different dynamics<br><br>Annual population growth has ramped up in New South Wales too at +116,400.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But with 64,824 new dwellings delivered over the year this crude ratio has shifted favourably towards the supply side after ten years of relative under-building in Sydney.</div>
</div>
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<br><div>With some 82,836 dwellings under construction across New South Wales there's plenty more to come too, in spite of dwelling starts now finally having passed their peak. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Despite being a more diverse state - as well as being home to traditional boom/bust markets such as the Gold Coast - Queensland has followed a similar pattern. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Sunshine State delivered 46,469 dwellings over the year through a period where population growth had slowed dramatically following the peak of resources construction boom in 2012. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although population growth has now picked up in Queensland and dwelling starts are apparently slowing to a crawl, it's clear that an oversupply of new dwellings is writ large.</div>
<div> </div>
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<div> </div>
<div>The number of dwellings under construction has been in decline since September 2016, with 37,624 dwelling units 'live' as at the end of the first quarter of 2017, and new starts have slowed dramatically, so the market is in the process correcting itself.  </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Notably, 28,391 of the dwellings under construction were of the attached variety, reflecting the super-boom in apartment construction up north. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Of course these models aren't intended to be anything other than a crude dashboard, but are a simple display of the apartment oversupply that faces parts of inner city Brisbane.<br><br>Finally, Western Australia saw the completion of 28,535 dwellings in 2016, yet population growth slowed sharply to 16,835, illustrating what can happen to population growth in an economic slowdown.</div>
<div> </div>
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<div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/07/13/A4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br>Population growth appears to have bottomed out in WA in line with a number of other indicators, but there is now a clear oversupply of dwelling stock to be absorbed. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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Forget any chance of an oversupply in Melbourne dwellings: Pete Wargent

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<div id="post-body-8331073014349855294" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>One should typically expect to see vacancy rates rise in December and January, and nationally vacancy rates were up to 2.8 per cent before Christmas according to SQM Research. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The increase was largely driven by Brisbane, which jumped to 3.7 percent.  </div>
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<br><div>As these numbers aren't seasonally adjusted it's technically 'chart crime' to smooth them over a few months, but nevertheless this can help to give a sense of the trend. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/17/VR2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/17/VR2.jpg" alt=""><br><br><div>We expect to see seasonal spikes in vacancy rates in suburbs such as Indro, Toowong, and perhaps Milton, at least in part because there are fewer students around over the summer break. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The tasty action is happening in the construction hubs such as the Valley and Newstead...</div>
</div>
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<div><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em> </em></span></div>
<div><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em>Source: SQM Research</em></span></div>
<br><div>And especially South Brisbane and West End, though the student effect is a part of this December jump too.</div>
<div> </div>
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<br><div><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Source: SQM Research</span></em></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>The trend is not the landlord's friend in these areas, with several thousand more inner city apartment completions expected to come onstream before the end of June. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Where Brisbane landords face rental challenges in 2017: Pete Wargent

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<p>With the populations of Australia’s major cities exploding, a shift to apartment living was always going to be essential to prevent urban sprawl from becoming unmanageable. Traditionally Australians have been resistant to apartment lifestyles, but that’s changing as apartment buildings become more advanced, and the infrastructure around them – shopping and recreational facilities – makes such lifestyles ever-more convenient and appealing.</p>
<p dir="ltr"><span>From the end of 2000 to now, there have been more than </span><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-18/how-bad-could-the-apartment-building-crisis-be-in-your-state/11413122" target="_blank"><span>667,000 apartment buildings</span></a><span>, flats, or units built across the nation. This figure has been led by NSW (259,000), Victoria (174,000), and Queensland (143,000). There are issues with the environment around apartment buildings in Australia, with 97% of buildings between 2003 and 2018 featuring at least one defect, but this has not stopped the cranes coming in, and the skyline filling with increasingly-tall buildings.</span></p>
<h2 dir="ltr"><span>Within Australia’s Capital Cities</span></h2>
<p dir="ltr"><span>In fact, the appetite for apartments is almost too much, with oversupply now becoming a problem in some areas. Sydney’s notoriously-expensive housing market is leading to more people looking for rental apartments than ever, but heavy investment in apartment building (with over 30,000 new multi-unit dwellings in the last year alone) is making it difficult to fill all available property – in 2019, rental prices </span><a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/apartment-oversupply-puts-squeeze-on-rents-20190705-p524cp" target="_blank"><span>dropped as much as $100 per week</span></a><span> in an effort by landlords to find tenants. Furthermore, Sydney has such a strong pipeline of additional units and apartments ahead of it that this trend is not likely to reverse soon.</span></p>
<p dir="ltr"><span>Melbourne’s property market, on the other hand, is being propped up by the growth in apartment buildings. In those areas of Melbourne where the median prices of property have risen over the last 12 months, a full</span><a href="/expert-insights/buying"><span>79% of those are apartment markets</span></a><span>. With Melbourne having gone through a post-boom downturn, this reversal being driven by apartments shows a shift it living expectations and demand in the city.</span></p>
<p dir="ltr"><span>In Australia’s smaller cities, such as Adelaide, apartment living is also a growing trend, albeit at a slower rate to the more traditional single-unit property market. Interestingly, new apartments in Adelaide average </span><a href="https://www.stratadata.com.au/strata-services/adelaide/" target="_blank"><span>the highest area across all capital cities at 152.3m²</span></a><span>. Through 2020 unit values are expected to increase by 1.1 per cent, while house values will increase by 5.1 per cent. The smaller capital cities have not had the kind of property booms that the major capitals have, however, price inflation for single dwelling houses has not priced them out of reach to the same extent, however, so this is less an indication of a weak demand for apartments as it is an indication that markets such as Adelaide will trend in the same direction as the major cities in the years ahead, as the market catches up.</span></p>
<h2 dir="ltr"><span>Threats To Australian Apartments</span></h2>
<p dir="ltr"><span>The biggest issue that the Australian property market faces, with regards to apartments, is the issue of the defects. Extreme cases, such as that of the Olympic Park Opal Tower, which</span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/dec/25/sydney-olympic-park-opal-tower-evacuation-51-units-deemed-unsafe"><span>led to the eviction of residents</span></a><span> after 51 units were deemed unsafe, are the ones to make the news, but as mentioned earlier, almost all apartments built in Australia have defects.</span></p>
<p dir="ltr"><span>Across Queensland, NSW and Victoria, the five most common examples of defects were:</span></p>
<p dir="ltr"><span>1)</span><span>  </span><span>Internal water leaks (42 per cent)</span></p>
<p dir="ltr"><span>2)</span><span>  </span><span>Cracking to internal or external structures (42 per cent)</span></p>
<p dir="ltr"><span>3)</span><span>  </span><span>Water penetration from outside (40 per cent)</span></p>
<p dir="ltr"><span>4)</span><span>  </span><span>Guttering faults (25 per cent)</span></p>
<p dir="ltr"><span>5)</span><span>  </span><span>Defective roof coverings (23 per cent)</span></p>
<p dir="ltr"><span>These issues can have a dampening effect on the enthusiasm that people have for buying apartments, particularly under the knowledge of how frequent the problem is.</span></p>
<p dir="ltr"><span>While this is an issue that needs to be solved – and Australian state governments are </span><a href="https://www.customerservice.nsw.gov.au/our-stories/draft-building-legislation-targets-concerns-about-apartment-buildings" target="_blank"><span>looking to tackle the problem with legislation</span></a><span> – the benefits of apartment living for the modern Australian are too significant for the overall interest in apartments to change course. In addition to the convenience, with apartments generally located within easy reach of public transport and CBD areas, there are a host of other benefits to apartment living that make it a sound lifestyle choice for an increasing number of Australians. Living in an apartment requires less maintenance on the part of the owner or tenant. Much of the maintenance work falls under the responsibility of the body corporate, which can be both a significant time and money saver.</span></p>
<h2 dir="ltr"><span>The Benefits of Apartment Living</span></h2>
<p dir="ltr"><span>Apartments increasingly have common areas for residents which enhance the value of the space. Swimming pools, communal barbeques, gyms and security systems are all common amenities that have the added benefit that they help to foster a sense of community throughout the building. Finally, the costs of heating, cooling, water and electricity can all be mitigated to an extent in the way that billing for these utilities is handled for multi-tenant buildings.</span></p>
<p dir="ltr"><span>The signs are that the market for apartments is going to be a challenging one for investors in Australia for some time to come. Defects and the over-production of space is putting downward pressure on prices. At the same time, however, there is a decided shift away from the traditional “Australian dream” in which a family will own a house. The convenience and lifestyle “value-adds” of apartment living have kickstarted an irreversible trend across the entire country.</span></p>
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Understanding the apartment landscape in Australia

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>A prestige apartment building in Sydney built by a well-known developer is undergoing a second replacement of a terrace waterproof membrane five years after replacement of the first one, which had leaked from completion. The second membrane almost certainly complied with the <a href="https://ncc.abcb.gov.au/ncc-online/About" target="_blank">National Construction Code</a> (NCC) and was certified as compliant; the first one might also have complied. Yet, for 15 years, owners and tenants living under the terraces have put up with mouldy walls, carpets and ceilings because the code does not adequately control waterproofing materials and methods.</p>
<p>A key assumption made by governments and regulators has been that confidence will return to the market if apartments are built to meet National Construction Code requirements. As the story above shows, complying with the code alone will not be enough to fix many common defects. Public confidence will still be lacking.</p>
<p>In 2017, the <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/regulations-and-standards/building-and-construction/building-ministers-forum" target="_blank">Building Ministers’ Forum</a>, the group of federal, state and territory ministers responsible for building regulation in Australia, commissioned a report from Peter Shergold and Bronwyn Weir. Their <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/July%202018/document/pdf/building_ministers_forum_expert_assessment_-_building_confidence.pdf?acsf_files_redirect" target="_blank">report said</a> there was “… diminishing public confidence that the building and construction industry can deliver compliant, safe buildings which will perform to the expected standards over the long term”.</p>
<p>Since then, the high-profile structural failure and <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-big-lesson-from-opal-tower-is-that-badly-built-apartments-arent-only-an-issue-for-residents-109722" target="_blank">evacuation of Opal Tower</a> on Christmas Eve 2018, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/cladding-fire-risks-have-been-known-for-years-lives-depend-on-acting-now-with-no-more-delays-111186" target="_blank">cladding fire at Neo200</a> in February 2019 and the structural failure and <a href="https://theconversation.com/buck-passing-on-apartment-building-safety-leaves-residents-at-risk-119000" target="_blank">evacuation of Mascot Towers</a> in June 2019 have kept this issue in the media spotlight. If anything, the public <a href="https://www.afr.com/news/politics/national/the-apartment-building-crisis-explained-20190716-p527k0" target="_blank">crisis of confidence</a> has deepened.</p>
<h2>Part of the problem is the code itself</h2>
<p>The National Construction Code originated as a minimum standard to deliver structural integrity and fire safety. It was never intended to provide effective control over all the aspects of building work that make houses or apartments liveable and durable. This might come as a surprise to many people, including those in government, but it is inherent to the “minimum standard” approach that underpins the structure and objectives of the code.</p>
<p>The objectives on page 9 of volume 1 of the code, which covers apartments, are instructive:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>1) ensure requirements have a rigorously tested rationale; and</p>
<p>2) effectively and proportionally address applicable issues; and</p>
<p>3) create benefits to society that outweigh costs; and</p>
<p>4) consider non-regulatory alternatives; and</p>
<p>5) consider the competitive effects of regulation; and</p>
<p>6) not be unnecessarily restrictive.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In attempting to consider “competitive effects”, avoid being “restrictive” and by encouraging “non-regulatory alternatives”, including self-certification and self-regulation, the code has opened the door to an “anything goes” mentality on many fronts.</p>
<p>Waterproofing requirements for houses and apartments under section F of the code are clearly ineffective, for a start.</p>
<p>The relevant Australian Standards, <a href="https://infostore.saiglobal.com/preview/315369811573.pdf?sku=120285_SAIG_AS_AS_252122" target="_blank">AS 4654.1</a> and <a href="https://infostore.saiglobal.com/preview/315378204076.pdf?sku=120284_SAIG_AS_AS_252120" target="_blank">AS 4654.2</a>, were written with a lot of input from the building materials supply industry. The standards permit the use of unsuitable waterproofing membranes in many situations, particularly where ceramic tiles are directly bonded to an inappropriate liquid-applied membrane. As the example at the start of this article shows, this solution rarely lasts longer than four or five years and considerably less in some cases.</p>
<p>Rectification is expensive and inconvenient. It involves hacking up and replacing all the tiles.</p>
<p>In addition, every apartment building built without a step in the slab at the junction between walls and floors will probably develop leaks within a similar timeframe.</p>
<p>These practices are driven by the desire to save a few dollars in construction cost, not by a commitment to deliver a required standard of durability. Durability is not part of the code objectives.</p>
<h2>How can the code be fixed?</h2>
<p>We could improve the code in a number of simple ways:</p>
<ol>
<li>
<p>Class 1 (houses) and class 2 (apartments) buildings should both be in volume 2, which would be dedicated to housing intended for sale. Houses and apartments should be required to be “fit for purpose” with a clearly stated objective to provide protection to the buyer. These should include a mandatory minimum statutory warranty of seven to ten years, backed by government.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The required durability of waterproofing membranes and details for all housing, and class 2 apartments in particular, must be clearly stated. Waterproofing should be required to last at least 25 years without significant maintenance, and perhaps 40 years for buildings where access to the waterproofing element requires demolition or is fundamentally difficult. Details that are not durable, including slabs without steps at wall junctions, or terrace and balcony tiles directly bonded to liquid-applied waterproof membranes, should be banned.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The structure of an apartment should be required to last with no substantial maintenance for at least 50 to 60 years. The minimum expectation for durability for any envelope component and associated finishes on buildings over three storeys should be 25 years, and perhaps 40 years for taller buildings.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The “performance requirements” of section F of the code, “Health and Amenity”, should be expanded to ensure apartments are comfortable, economical to maintain and <a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-forget-our-future-climate-when-tightening-up-building-codes-113365" target="_blank">sustainable</a>.</p>
</li>
</ol>
<p>Some developers are already delivering well-designed apartment buildings that are durable and fit for purpose. They are to be commended. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/lack-of-information-on-apartment-defects-leaves-whole-market-on-shaky-footings-127007" target="_blank">problem for buyers is identifying these</a> amid a sea of dross.</p>
<p>For new houses and apartments, we need to ensure the National Construction Code matches community expectations on fitness for purpose and durability. This requires a return to more active and interventionist regulatory framework, including putting independent “eyes on the site” to inspect work during construction.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126678/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;"></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/geoff-hanmer-90647" target="_blank">Geoff Hanmer</a>, Adjunct Lecturer in Architecture, <em><a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-restore-public-confidence-in-apartments-rewrite-australias-building-codes-126678" target="_blank">original article</a>.</p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

To restore public confidence in apartments, rewrite Australia’s building codes

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">I’m expecting uplift in apartment markets in the major cities as we transition into the New Year. It’s clear from the evidence that’s emerging week by week that the post-boom correction that afflicted Melbourne and Sydney has run its course and recovery is real.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">But, contrary to the general tone of mainstream media, there was no blanket collapse in price levels across the two biggest cities during that recent downturn. Some market sectors were strongly resistant.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Generalised reporting, with a single figure to describe outcomes in an entire very large city, disguises the myriad scenarios playing out across a metropolitan area. At Hotspotting, we conduct a suburb-by-suburb analysis of sales activity and price trends every quarter and that shows how many variances there are. Even neighbouring suburbs can have contrasting fortunes. It’s fundamentally about local conditions.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">A trend I saw during that correction phase was numerous suburbs in both Melbourne and Sydney where median house prices were down (a lot, in many cases) but median unit prices were still up.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">As investors fell away, younger home buyers became increasingly active and there’s a preference among young adults for the apartment lifestyle, and not only because units are cheaper. Young adults are making choices that are different to those of their parents and grandparents, who generally opted for the suburban house on land.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Apartments offer a low-maintenance low-energy lifestyle, often in a better-connected location at a cheaper price. So demand for apartments held up pretty well in the big-city downturn and prices stayed solid in many locations (not all).</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">And now we have the brave new world of recovering or rising markets in our capital cities. We’re entering 2020 with real estate consumer confidence rising and buyers becoming increasingly active, helped by easier finance and tax cuts, and nudged along by a more positive tone in media coverage.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">First-home buyers are busy and, according to the ABS date, more prominent (measured by their share of owner-occupier loans) than at any time in the past 7-8 years.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The Federal Government’s assistance package will add impetus – and urgency, because it’s limited to the first 10,000 who take action.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">So demand in big-city apartment markets is likely to strengthen.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Here are some case studies.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The Moreland LGA in Melbourne attracts a lot of demand from both renters and buyers, thanks in part to the proximity of the big medical/education precinct around Parkville/Carlton. Most postcodes have vacancies well below 2%.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">In the popular suburb of Brunswick, you pay close to $1 million for the typical house but the median price for units is a little above $500,000. In Coburg, the median prices are around $900,000 for houses and $500,000 for units. So you can get into the typical apartment for half the price of houses, generally speaking.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">In the past 12 months, the median house prices in both suburbs have dropped significantly, but median unit prices have increased – by 4% in Coburg and 6% in Brunswick.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">In the Northern Beaches area of Sydney, Dee Why attracts consistent demand for apartments, with over 500 unit sales in the past 12 months. The median prices are $1,530,000 for houses and $740,000 for apartments – and price levels have stayed solid for apartments while houses are down 9% in annual terms.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">In the Northern Beaches suburb of Newport, the median price comparison is $1,700,000 for houses and $860,000 for apartments, with house prices down 8% in annual terms, while apartment prices are up 4%.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Another factor boosting apartment markets is the fall off in construction levels, which means supply levels have moderated at a time when demand generally is rising. Vacancy rates are low and falling in most of our capital cities, although there are exceptions and buyers need to be informed about local situations.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">In Kangaroo Point in inner-city Brisbane, you pay around $460,000 for the typical apartment and vacancies, which were consistently above 5% in recent years, are now down around 3%.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">A year ago, the vacancy rate for South Brisbane was around 8%. Now it’s around 4% and trending in the right direction. The median apartment price is around $500,000, up slightly in the past 12 months.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">I’m not advocating that people dash out and buy apartments – and we could have large debates about the pros and cons of investing in apartments, But I do think we’re going to see rising demand in unit markets in the major cities in 2020, especially by owner-occupier buyers, with first-timers prominent.</span> </p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s3">T<em>erry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au</em></span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s4"><a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au"><em>ryder@hotspotting.com.au</em></a></span></p>
<p class="p5"><span class="s3"><em>twitter.com/hotspotting</em></span></p>
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Uplift in major city apartment markets coming: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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<p>Despite the rebound in housing market activity and existing dwelling prices seen over recent months, we should not be expecting a sudden rebound in the new construction apartment market, <span>according JLL.</span></p>
<p>Conditions will remain tough for developers in the short-term, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne as the tail end of the last construction cycle is absorbed, JLL's 3Q 2019 Apartment Market Reports said.</p>
<p>Nevertheless they said, these challenges will see supply continue to fall sharply over the next few years and will see the major markets move into under-supply progressively over the next 12-24 months.</p>
<p>"The recovery in existing property demand and prices is great for confidence in the broader market," <span>JLL’s Head of Residential Research - Australia, Leigh Warner said.</span> </p>
<p>"However, this is likely to level out a little over the next couple of quarters, as more vendors are attracted back into the market. The recovery in investor demand is also likely to stay more muted than for owner occupiers and this remains an important source of demand for the new apartment market.</p>
<p>"Demand for new apartments will improve somewhat, but pre-sales rates will stay relatively slow. Developers are still competing against residual un-sold stock in recently completed projects, which in many cases are heavily discounted or offering other incentives to buyers."</p>
<p>"The good news is that with strong population growth and new completions still falling sharply, the process of consuming this residual stock will be reasonably quick. The timing of this process will be slightly different in each market due to all having slightly different construction cycles, but by mid-2021 we expect all the major markets to be either back in, or very close to, a position of under-supply again."</p>
<p>JLL data showed that the number of apartments under construction in the inner-city regions of Australia’s six major capital cities fell a further 5% in 3Q19 to 37,500 apartments and was down 23% over the past year and over 30% from its peak.</p>
<p>However, JLL said that perhaps the strongest sign of the decline that is still to come in apartment construction is the decline in the number of apartments being actively marketed. This fell a further 19% in 3Q19, to be 42% below a year ago and around 63% below its peak level. This decline has been felt across all monitored markets, but has been most severe in Sydney where it has fallen 54% over the past year and 80% from its peak level.</p>
<p>According to Warner, Brisbane is likely to be first into the next cycle.</p>
<p>"Brisbane supply peaked way back in 2016 and is more advanced in the process of absorbing residual stock. Construction will be particularly low in 2020 and 2021. At the same time, underlying demand continues to pick up as regional population growth increases and some large inner city infrastructure projects boost economic activity and lure construction workers to the region. A tightening of the market is already evident in the rental market, where upward pressure on rents have already re-emerged."</p>
<p>Melbourne and Sydney are likely to take a little longer to tighten up., he said.</p>
<p>"Melbourne’s very strong population growth will help with consumption of stock, but construction has been very concentrated in and around the CBD and there are some very large projects recently completed or soon to complete that still have a large amount of stock to be absorbed first," said Warner.</p>
<p>"In comparison, Sydney’s construction cycle was much more decentralised and only reached a peak much more recently. As such, residual stock to be absorbed is more spread across the entire Greater Sydney area and will take a little longer to work through. The recent building defect issues have also affected buyer confidence in the market. With a lot more choice in the market, we think buyers will gravitate to both the best locations and to projects with more widely recognised developers and builders."</p>
<p>"Perth’s housing market remains soft, but there is increasing optimism that better times are ahead. Improved local economic and population growth over the next few years should boost underlying demand growth, while lower interest rates and easier credit should also lure some buyers out of the rental market that have been holding off for prices to stabilise. Similarly, apartment prices are lower than they were a decade ago in Perth and this affordability and improving market outlook may attract a little more investor interest."</p>
<p>"Neither Adelaide nor Canberra have historically had significant apartment markets, but apartment living has started to take off in both markets over recent years. Supply levels remain elevated in both markets, which will put some moderate pressure on pricing ahead, but solid economic prospects and improved market sentiment after the interest rate cuts and easing of credit constraints is likely to mean a shallow downturn for Adelaide and Canberra. Further, smaller owner-occupier focused stock is likely to continue to hold up well."</p>
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Conditions will remain tough for apartment developers for now: JLL 

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<p>Melbourne apartments will fair better than Sydney over 2020, suggest NAB.</p>
<p>NAB expect Melbourne's apartments to close the year with values 4.2 per cent higher, compared to Sydney's 1.6 per cent.</p>
<p>In 2020 they forecast apartments in the Victoria capital to increase 7.4 per cent, the same as their <a href="/news/sydney-and-melbourne-house-values-to-rise-over-seven-percent-in-2020-nab">revised median house price forecasts</a>.</p>
<p>Sydney is expected to grow at a slower 4.3 per cent rate.</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/10/24/NAB%20UNIT%20PRICE%20FORECAST.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Both will drive the capital city average of 3.9 per cent, with declines predicted to be felt in Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide.</p>
<p>The NAB Residential Property Index has <a href="/news/nab-residential-property-index-ticks-into-positive-for-first-time-since-mid-2018">moved back into positive territory</a> for the first time since mid-2018, reflecting the uptick in market activity in recent months.</p>
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