<p>Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.</p>

<p>At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.</p>

<p>Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.</p>

<p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FH_1EzB-1vs?si=XScVlP1ERsTDJoME" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p>

<p>"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.</p>

<p>Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.</p>

<p>“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.</p>

<p>He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]</p>

<p>After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.</p>

<p>"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."</p>

<p>Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.</p>

<p>"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]</p>

<p>Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.</p>

<p>"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."</p>

<p>For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.</p>

<p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tsioMLcnjas?si=zq-ys3JuWpfa5hFv" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p>

<p>The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.</p>

<p>"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."</p>

<p>As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.</p>

<p>"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.</p>

<p>"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]</p>

<p>Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.</p>

<p>"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."</p>

<p>That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.</p>

<p>"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]</p>

<p>Aimee says one moment stood out.</p>

<p>"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."</p>

<p>The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.</p>

<p>Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]</p>

<p>ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]</p>

<p>For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.</p>

<p>"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."</p>

<p>For Aimee, the change is measured in time.</p>

<p>“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]</p>

<p>Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.</p>

<p>ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]</p>


Joel Robinson

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

<p>Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.</p>

<p>Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.</p>

<p>"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.</p>

<p>"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372549]</p>

<p>Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.</p>

<p>"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.</p>

<p>The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=314259]</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.</p>

<p>According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.</p>

<p>Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372550]</p>

<p>Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.</p>

<p>The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.</p>

<p>The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.</p>

<p>"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."</p>

<p>The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.</p>

<p>With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4661]</p>


Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

<p>Downsizer-focused apartment development Kooyongkoot in Hawthorn has been recognised at the 2026 Better Future Melbourne Design Awards, taking home Gold and Silver awards in two categories.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a>, currently being delivered by developer PQD and designed by Cera Stribley, received Gold in the Interior Design – Proposed category and Silver in the Architecture – Proposed category.</p>

<p>The dual recognition reflects the design approach behind the boutique development on prestigious Kooyongkoot Road, where the focus has been on creating homes for downsizers seeking the space, quality and functionality of a detached house within a low-rise apartment building.</p>

<p>Rather than maximising apartment numbers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pqd">PQD</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> limited the development to just 18 residences, allowing for larger floorplans, greater privacy, generous landscaping and expansive communal spaces.&nbsp;The majority of the apartments also benefit from corner aspects, allowing for dual sources of natural light.</p>

<p>Now around 70 per cent complete and on track for completion in November 2026, Kooyongkoot will comprise a mix of garden residences, ter​race apartments, sub-penthouses, and is crowned by two half-floor penthouses with direct lift access and private rooftop terraces.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355297]</p>

<p>The Silver Award for Architecture recognised the way the building responds to its prominent corner position at the ent​rance to Hawthorn's Scotch Hill precinct, one of Melbourne's most established residential neighbourhoods.</p>

<p>Rather than competing with the grand homes that line Kooyongkoot Road, the architectural approach focused on restraint and longevity, using curved brickwork, generous landscaping and carefully considered proportions to integrate with the existing streetscape.</p>

<p>"The form feels fluid and timeless, as though shaped by the landscape itself – architecture that belongs, rather than competes," said Chris Stribley, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Cera Stribley.</p>

<p>The judging submission also highlighted practical innovations throughout the building, including lift cores servicing only nine homes each, a central landscaped lightcourt designed to bring daylight and ventilation into the building, and fully enclosed private storage rooms with lighting, power and shelving to better accommodate residents transitioning from larger family homes.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355293]</p>

<p>The Gold Award for Interior Design recognised the project's focus on long-term liveability rather than display-home aesthetics.</p>

<p>According to the awards submission, the interiors were designed from the inside out, prioritising how homes would function over decades of daily use through generous proportions, practical storage, durable natural materials and flexible layouts.</p>

<p>The specification includes natural stone throughout, upgraded acoustic glazing, V-ZUG appliances and fully enclosed storage rooms, alongside an amenity offering focused on wellness, entertainment and everyday convenience.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a gym and yoga studio, a wellness centre featuring traditional and infrared saunas, a cold therapy shower and treatment room, as well as a residents' lounge and golf simulator/cinema room for entertainment.&nbsp;Kooyongkoot has also considered the everyday convenience of its residents by offering a private carwash and pet wash facilities on site as well as dedicated parcel lockers and oversized fully enclosed storage rooms.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355303]</p>

<p>The project's attention to detail has already resonated with buyers. Earlier this year, Kooyongkoot recorded one of Boroondara's highest apartment sales when an $8 million penthouse was purchased by a Melbourne CEO downsizing from a nearby family home.</p>

<p>"Every detail feels deliberate, from the overall design down to the smallest touches," the purchaser said.</p>

<p>"The level of quality and refinement is exceptional, but what really sold it was how liveable it felt... It felt like a place where everything had been considered, not just a luxury building."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]</p>

<p>Sustainability also formed a key part of both award submissions. Kooyongkoot is targeting a minimum 7.5-star NatHERS rating across all residences, supported by passive design principles, high-performance glazing, EV charging infrastructure, water reuse systems and a wellness model focused on lower-energy dry facilities rather than pools and large wet areas.</p>

<p>Located within walking distance of Scotch College, Methodist Ladies' College, Koo​yong Lawn Tennis Club, Aubur​n Village and Camberwell Junction, Kooyongkoot continues to target owner-occupiers looking to remain in Melbourne's inner east without compromising on space or quality. A limited selection of two, three and four-bedroom residences remains available, with prices starting from $1.9 million.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]</p>


Kooyongkoot wins Gold and Silver at Better Future Melbourne Design Awards

<p>New apartment supply has become increasingly constrained across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parramatta-nsw-2150">Parramatta</a> in recent years, with fewer projects progressing through to completion as development conditions have become more challenging.</p>

<p>It makes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/novm">NOVM</a>'s 2021-completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/the-lennox-parramatta-12-phillip-street-parramatta-nsw-2150">The Lennox</a> one of the most recently completed residential towers on the Parramatta River, and among the newest apartment developments in Sydney's second CBD.</p>

<p>With the project largely completed before the sharp escalation in construction costs and inflation following the pandemic, The Lennox is now offering pricing that would be difficult to replicate in a comparable new development in Parramatta today, or across much of Western Sydney.</p>

<p>The majority of the 413 apartments at The Lennox sold before and shortly after completion. A limited release of the remaining apartments has recently been brought to market by capital partner <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a>, with entry-level pricing from $700,000 and two-bedroom apartments available from under $1 million.</p>

<p>Rising above the Parramatta River at 12 Phillip Street, The Lennox comprises one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, appealing to first home buyers, young professionals, families, downsizers and interstate investors seeking a completed apartment in one of Australia's fastest-growing economic centres.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=372394]</p>

<p>Rather than positioning Parramatta as an alternative to Sydney's CBD, Equitifund believes the city has reached a point where it stands on its own merits.</p>

<p>"Parramatta is no longer simply an alternative to Sydney CBD, it's becoming a destination in its own right," Equitifund Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said.</p>

<p>"The Lennox captures that evolution with a level of quality and amenity that's difficult to match at its price point."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=953]</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/marchese-partners">Marchese Partners</a>, the tower responds directly to its riverfront setting through expansive glazing and open-plan layouts that maximise views across the Parramatta River and city skyline. Interiors feature engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, stainless steel appliances and floor-to-ceiling glazing, while generous balconies extend the living spaces outdoors.</p>

<p>Marchese Partners says the project was conceived to balance high-quality apartment living with practical, long-term functionality, pairing larger, efficient floorplans with amenities more commonly associated with five-star hotels.</p>

<p>That emphasis continues through the resident facilities, which include a 20-metre rooftop swimming pool, fully equipped gym and wellness spaces, full-time concierge, a residents' lounge, function room, private lifts, secure basement parking and rooftop communal areas overlooking the Parramatta River. Ground-floor boardwalk retail and dining further activate the riverfront and integrate the building into the surrounding public realm.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=925]</p>

<p>Australian housing and finance group Equitifund has secured the remaining apartments, believing there are few completed apartment opportunities in Parramatta that offer the same combination of location, amenity and pricing.</p>

<p>Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett says buyers are increasingly recognising that premium apartment living no longer needs to come with Sydney CBD pricing.</p>

<p>"The Lennox is where aspirational living becomes attainable," Hamblett said.</p>

<p>"Wake to river and mountain views, step into Sydney's Second CBD, and arrive home to resort-calibre amenities, all without the harbour price tag."</p>

<p>Hamblett says owner-occupiers are also attracted by the convenience of having Westfield Parramatta, Church Street's dining precinct, Parramatta Park, Riverside Theatres, Western Sydney University and major transport connections all within walking distance.</p>

<p>"At The Lennox, lifestyle is not an afterthought, it is the foundation."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=5374]</p>

<p>The Lennox places residents within walking distance of Parramatta Square, Westfield Parramatta, Church Street Eat Street, Parramatta Station, the ferry wharf, Light Rail, the future Sydney Metro West, Parramatta Park and CommBank Stadium, reinforcing Parramatta's position as one of Australia's most connected metropolitan centres outside Sydney's CBD.</p>

<p>Equitifund says buyers visiting the display suite consistently comment on the quality of the finishes, generous floorplans, river and skyline views, and the walkability of the location. The project has attracted a broad mix of local professionals, upsizers, downsizers, buyers relocating from Sydney's inner suburbs and interstate investors seeking long-term growth opportunities.</p>

<p>That demand aligns with Parramatta's continued evolution as an economic powerhouse. Equitifund Research and Market Insights specialist John Bekiaris says sustained population growth, infrastructure investment and expanding employment opportunities continue to support long-term housing demand across the city.</p>

<p>"Parramatta has evolved from a satellite city into one of Australia's most important economic centres. Population growth, infrastructure investment and employment are all supporting sustained long-term housing demand."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5743]</p>


The apartment price gap drawing Sydney buyers west

<p>A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.</p>

<p>The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.</p>

<p>The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.</p>

<p>The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.</p>

<p>Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.</p>

<p>"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.</p>

<p>"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."</p>

<p><img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" /></p>

<p>Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.</p>

<p>Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.</p>

<p>Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.</p>

<p>"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.</p>

<p>"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."</p>

<p>Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.</p>

<p>Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.</p>


Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

Apartment Construction

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<p>Residents had repeatedly told Bayside Council and the building manager that their Mascot Tower apartments were shaking during excavation work at the neighbouring Peak Towers block.</p>
<p>Residents also told how the basement carpark was flooded during the Peak Towers excavation.</p>
<p>Engineers at Mascot Towers are investigating whether the groundwater level just 1.5m below the basement carpark may have added to the damage at the crack-ridden apartment complex.</p>
<p>Owners were told on the weekend that engineers would be assessing Mascot Towers for at least five to seven days.</p>
<p>Real estate agent John Higgins, who sold most of the Mascot Towers apartments on their 2006 off the plan listings, and has been since involved since, told the Sunday Telegraph he believes the 11-storey Peak Towers, still under construction, may be responsible.</p>
<p>There is also an issue around a faulty support beam potentially causing the cracks that forced hundreds of residents to evacuate the complex on Friday evening.</p>
<p>The eight storey, 122 apartment Bourke Street was completed in 2008 above the railway line.</p>
<p>Higgins said cracks had also been found in the industrial building two doors down.</p>
<p>The building is adjacent to the site where an 11-storey apartment block is being built.</p>
<p>Documents show the NSW Office of Water approved­ the development after being satisfied that works dealt with the groundwater issues across the site at depths from 1.4m-1.6m below natural ground level.</p>
<p> </p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Mascot Towers residents await causes of cracking 

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>The volume of new apartment building is smaller than at any time since July 2012. </p>
<p>Just released figures from the ABS show that new home building approvals lost another 8.4% during December 2018.</p>
<p>Detached house approvals were down by 2.1% but approvals for new apartments/units dropped by 18.6% during the month.</p>
<p>Today’s ABS figures complete the full 12-month picture for 2018. For the year overall, the volume of new home building approvals was pretty strong with over 212,000 permits issued for new dwellings.</p>
<p>This was down only modestly (-5.6%) compared with the 2017 total.</p>
<p>More worrying is the pace at which approvals have been falling back over more recent months.</p>
<p>During the final three months of 2018, total approvals were 23.7% lower than a year earlier – with apartment approvals suffering a 40.1% reduction over this period.</p>
<p>Faltering new home building activity has been occurring against the backdrop of falling house prices, the Royal Commission’s work and uncertainty about what housing policy will look like after May’s Federal Election.</p>
<p>Clearing up some of these uncertainties would help get the housing market back on its feet.</p>
<p>During December, new dwelling approvals increased in three markets including South Australia (+5.6%), the Northern Territory (+1.7%) and Western Australia (+1.1%).</p>
<p>The largest reduction in approvals hit Tasmania (-24.3%) followed by the ACT (-21.3%). The volume of approvals also declined in New South Wales (-8.6%), Victoria (-8.1%) and Queensland (-5.8%).</p>
<p><em><strong><em>Shane Garrett </em></strong><em>is </em>Master Builders Australia’s Chief Economist</em></p>
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New apartments volumes weakest since mid 2012: Shane Garrett

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<p>Sydney has the nation's most evenly distributed new apartment market which puts it at less risk of inner city oversupply, the 2018 UDIA State of the Land Report suggests. </p>
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<p>Sydney accounted for 28% of total market supply in 2017 with 37,740 lots/multi-units completions, which reflected a similar production output to 2016 but a 48% uplift on 2014 </p>
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</div>
</div>
<p>Just over a fifth of new Sydney unit completions (apartments, townhouses and terraces) were within five kilometres of the city centre in 2017.</p>
<p>It compared to almost half of all Melbourne unit completions.</p>
<p data-gtm-vis-first-on-screen-7770372_137="2971" data-gtm-vis-total-visible-time-7770372_137="4000" data-gtm-vis-has-fired-7770372_137="1">In Adelaide and Brisbane almost two-thirds of new unit completions were within their respective five kilometre inner rings.</p>
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<p>Population growth, or lack of it, is the primary driver of demand for new dwellings, the report noted.</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/3/23/UDIA%201.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/3/23/UDIA%202.jpg" alt=""></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<p>The UDIA said a third of new Sydney units were within 5 to 10 kilometres of the CBD, 28 per cent of completions were 10 to 20 kilometres out and 18 per cent of completions were as far as 50 kilometres from the centre of town, according to data compiled for the report by CoreLogic.</p>
</div>
<div>
<div id="article-inline-ad">The UDIA report also found that new multi-unit completion (10 units or more) hit a record 77,365 in 2017, up 8 per cent on 2016 and 64 per cent higher than three years ago.</div>
</div>
<div>
<p>Most of this growth was due to a 25 per cent rise in Melbourne unit completion which reached 25,900 last year, just below the 28,300 units completed in Sydney.</p>
<p>It noted the heighted levels of new residential supply being delivered had been led by Melbourne which recorded a total production of almost 49,000 lots/multi-units in 2017, which was up 96% on 2014.</p>
<div title="Page 4">
<div>
<div>
<p>Melbourne’s total market output accounted for 37% of the combined capital city lots/multi-unit production in 2017. </p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<p data-gtm-vis-recent-on-screen-7770372_137="9975" data-gtm-vis-first-on-screen-7770372_137="9975" data-gtm-vis-total-visible-time-7770372_137="4000" data-gtm-vis-has-fired-7770372_137="1">Brisbane's unit market fell 3 per cent over the year to 11,900 completions while Perth slumped 38 per cent to just under 5000 completions.</p>
<p>Among the smaller unit markets, Adelaide completed 2130 units, up 39 per cent, with Canberra's new unit market doubling to 4100 units last year.</p>
<div title="Page 4">
<div>
<div>
<p>Residential supply from Perth has retracted sharply over the last three years, with the 2017 output of 11,900 lots/multi-units representing 9% of national capital city supply, down from the 16% national market share with 17,900 lots/multi-units in 2015. </p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/3/23/UDIA%203.jpg" alt=""></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<p> </p>
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UDIA says spread of Sydney apartment construction would reduce oversupply risks

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<div class="cq-article-content-paras section">
<p>The Rich List property developer Paul Little has quit multi-unit Melbourne apartment construction.</p>
<p>He will instead start construction on hotel and student accommodation projects.  </p>
<p>Little was last year ranked 64th on the <em>Financial Review Rich List</em> with an estimated wealth of $927 million.</p>
<p>Little Projects will continue to develop smaller townhouse projects targeted at owner-occupiers.</p>
<p>But Little told the AFR he was being "very cautious" in the residential area and unlikely to start larger projects.  </p>
<p>"We've effectively removed ourselves from the high-rise market currently and focussed on areas such as a hotel in the city and student accommodation," Little said.  </p>
</div>
<div class="cq-article-content-media section">Little noted investors were now "effectively walking away" and Asian buyers were looking to places other than Australia. </div>
<div class="cq-article-content-paras section">
<p>"Our change in direction occurred probably 12 months ago," Mr Little said.</p>
<p>"It was pretty obvious the residential market was going to become more difficult and we changed our strategies around different products".</p>
<p>"Developers that haven't changed their 'sweet spot' are probably going to be doing very little or struggling."</p>
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Paul Little confirms he's out of Melbourne apartment high rise construction

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<div>A range of factors have come together to kill the apartment construction boom in its tracks.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>These have included:<br><br>-tighter capital controls in China<br>-a stamp duty surcharge for non-resident buyers<br>-a 'vacancy tax' for unoccupied dwellings not made available for rent<br>-changes to the foreign resident capital gains tax regime<br>-significant limits to depreciation deductions<br>-travel costs for landlords being disallowed as a deduction<br>-changes to the CGT main residence exemption for foreign buyers &amp; temporary residents<br>-considerably tighter lending criteria Down Under</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And some other stuff.<br><br>The truth is Australian residents finance the purchase of relatively few new apartments in the larger developments, so if investors aren't buying then it's difficult for developers to secure enough pre-sales to get projects off the ground.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>At the last official count we saw that there were still around 152,000 attached dwellings under construction for the July to September 2017 period.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But that was months ago, and this is now.<br><br>By today in February 2018 the number of apartments under construction might already have nosedived by about 20 per cent, as a swathe of Sydney completions has hit the market. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And the latest building approvals figures suggest the downtrend is now locked in.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This may prove to be a plus for landlords as rental markets tighten, while Alex Joiner of IFM Investors notes an eyebrow-raisi<span>ng <span>~</span>45,000 Airbnb</span> listings in Melbourne and its surrounds, representing huge growth, which may in turn help to explain vacancy rates in the Victorian capital having nudged multi-year lows in 2017. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Meanwhile macroprudential measures may well mean that interest rates stay lower for longer (if construction employment begins to fall hard, the next move in rates may even be down, for the Reserve Bank of Australia is already missing both its inflation target - for more than two years now - and its full employment mandate). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Let's look briefly at the latest building approvals trends. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Apartment construction to slow</span></strong></div>
<div><strong> </strong></div>
<div>Attached dwelling approvals dropped sharply by 39 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms in December 2017, from 11,247 to just 6,849, although this was partly a reversal of a record spike in Melbourne in the preceding month. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-jbFm6bMEzbc/Wnatet_AWHI/AAAAAAAAoKc/7IyLSytQdbASKTMc6St0CdspdGC4u0XRACLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="813" data-original-width="1338"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>While Melbourne and Sydney apartment approvals will likely continue a downtrend from here, confidence in the maligned Brisbane apartment sector finally seems to have found a more sustainable base. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Melbourne attached dwelling approvals fell from a manic 6,304 in November to 2,766 in December, overwhelmingly accounting for the monthly decline. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Across calendar year 2017 Sydney and Melbourne accounted for the strong result in attached dwelling approvals at just under 36,000 and 32,000 respectively.</div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-iBUymPPAG8o/Wnate9sty4I/AAAAAAAAoKg/-N-TNG0FkSwUA6UgVdxEQbc0aYIfFde0QCLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="380" data-original-height="810" data-original-width="1363"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Meanwhile the trend in Brisbane house approvals is now the strongest in the country, alongside sprightly Hobart.</div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-bBG8InIxZcc/Wnate_gk-sI/AAAAAAAAoKk/Uu9uSRI269wpiNfnkwyMR8l2rpUEUO_ngCLcBGAs/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="824" data-original-width="1355"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Hobart's housing market has been booming, and an overdue supply response is now reluctantly taking shape.</div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-jleMak-OHd0/Wnatg3ylE_I/AAAAAAAAoKw/VTkisyEuAV0REE9Xs7A_-M8SE7yo6pOlQCLcBGAs/s640/A5.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1321"></div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall 2017 was a stronger than expected year for approvals with more than 219,000 dwellings awarded a green tick, but the trend in high-rise approvals may well now resume its slide.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The townhouse sector of the market looks to be an increasingly solid performer, on the other hand.</div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2pwS0ldSwH8/WnatgONjOkI/AAAAAAAAoKo/540xndVwVMUeoyTrKHF1OjvrOPJyrAewwCLcBGAs/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1371"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Despite the fall in residential building approvals, the impact on the economy may not be as great as once feared, with the trend in monthly non-residential approvals for New South Wales hitting its highest ever level at $1.3 billion in December, while Victoria's result was even higher still. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-97uMk0P1oUM/Wnatg_84KUI/AAAAAAAAoKs/yJsaLCGeNAkYn6NasIY8we1kzrT8EpBNwCLcBGAs/s640/A6.jpg" width="640" height="380" data-original-height="817" data-original-width="1375"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Non-residential approvals have been tracking at record levels, then, overwhelmingly driven by Sydney and Melbourne.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Nevertheless, the apartment construction slowdown will be the real trend to watch this year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Eight factors kill the apartment construction boom in its tracks: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<div id="post-body-183755154986059073" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>New South Wales stamp duty and land transfer receipts were back up to $9.4 billon over the year to January 2017.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The rolling annual number of transactions is down from previous heights, though remains high with so many apartments being constructed.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/21/NSW.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge </a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/21/NSW.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><span>With a record construction boom and rising Sydney dwelling prices, it shouldn't be a surprise that stamp duty and transfers paid rose to record highs in FY2016.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>In fact, the NSW state budget surged into a massive $4.7 billion surplus in 2015-16.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>This result was miles ahead of forecasts and left the state government with net debt of less than zero.</span></div>
<div><span><br>Yes, the state government moved into a cash positive position for the first time ever.  </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>To complete the virtuous circle, billions of these funds need to be rolled into urgently required infrastructure projects, not least to plug the hole in the economy that will be left by declining housing construction from 2018 forth. </span></div>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Plenty more where this came from in 2017 as apartment completions hit the market (recall too that the 2016 NSW Budget introduced a 4 per cent surcharge purchaser duty on the acquisition of residential real estate by foreign persons from June 21, 2016.).</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>It's important to recognise that the record windfall represents a surge in pre-sold apartments as much as any recent increase in market liquidity, as stock on market levels to date remain relatively low.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<div><span>The number of transactions jumped to above 25,000 in November 2016, and total receipts seared to an unprecedented $1.78 billion in the month.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Just to put that number in context, the prior year equivalent figure had been only $729 million, and the previous record for any individual month was just $1.2 billion.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>The November number was so much higher than the prior year that it seemingly defies logic, although there had been a change in purchase duties for non-residents, and then there was the $16 billion Ausgrid sale.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>In January 2017 there were 17,473 transactions, a slightly lower figure than in the prior year.</span></div>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
</div>
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NSW stamp duty boom continues in 2017: Pete Wargent  

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<div>No data release seems to create quite as much confusion as the building activity figures.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Construction work in the residential sector is always apparently either booming or crashing, depending on who you believe, or commonly it's both. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Still, where there is discord may we bring harmony, by breaking it all down into three simple parts, starting with...</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 1 - Commencements ease back</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Commencements fell again by 2.8 percent to 55,070 in the September 2016 quarter, following a 7.2 percent decline in the June quarter. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Dwelling starts fell in most states, even in New South Wales where the appetite for building is strongest, although the 'trend' figures still show NSW arcing higher. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/19/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/19/A3.jpg" alt=""><br><br></p>
<div>Following on from sharp falls in unit and apartment approvals, it's no surprise that it was declines in this sector which have led the fall in commencements, particularly in Melbourne.</div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/19/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/19/A5.jpg" alt=""></p>
<div> </div>
<div>This in part represents nervous developers backing away from flooding the apartment markets further, as well as a failure to secure pre-sales in some cases. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 2 - Completions</span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Despite the huge boom in building work done over recent times, completions still hadn't run too high by the end of September, with 51,070 completions in the quarter, split between 27,773 houses and 22,666 units. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/19/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/19/A2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">The main reason for this is simply that it takes considerably longer to build a block of apartments than it does a detached house. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Despite this, apartment completions are starting to flow through in the most populous states, particularly in New South Wales and Queensland, although Victoria dropped back in the quarter as some developers reportedly moved into a "go slow" mode. </div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/19/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/19/A4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p> </p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 3 - The pipeline</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The most important thing to note from this release is that although the appetite for commencing new developments has cooled substantially, there were still more than 221,000 dwellings under construction as at the end of Q3 2016, including more than 150,000 units, townhouses, and apartments. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although some small inroads had been made into the apartment construction pipeline, the bulk of multi-unit project completions had yet to hit the market. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/19/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/19/A1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<div> </div>
<div>Given the sheer scale of the pipeline, perhaps it shouldn't be a surprise than an unprecedented number of approvals have not yet seen a shovel lifted in anger, with 42,591 approvals sitting in housing market Limboland.</div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/19/A6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/19/A6.jpg" alt=""><br><br></p>
<div>Of course, there will always be some approvals waiting in this phase, yet 42,500 is just way, way above the historic norm. These are not normal times! </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall, the market does seem to be correcting itself gradually with developers pulling back on new project commencements, and slowing the rate of completions in some cases to allow capital city population growth to play catch up.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>What the figures do show is that the full impact of the high rise boom had barely even begun to take shape by September 2016, so watch out for weakening apartment rents and and prices as 2017 rolls on. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The value of residential work done in Q3 declined, contributing to an awful negative GDP print for the quarter, and the sector is likely to become a headwind for the economy as the year progresses. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><em><span>PETE WARGENT </span>is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. </em></div>
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High rise boom has barely begun so watch out for weakening apartment rents and and prices in 2017: Pete Wargent

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<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<p>In some markets and circumstances, declining dwelling commencements can be a fair indicator that prices may be about to follow suit.</p>
<p>I don't want to generalise too much here, because there are of course different sub-markets and sectors.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, note how in Western Australia the dwelling price index peaked in Q1 2014, stalled in Q2 2014, before losing its mojo and beginning to decline in the third quarter of that year, by which time dwelling starts were already on their way down as builders had anticipated the downturn. </p>
<p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"><a href="/images/2016/10/17/BA1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></span></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/10/17/BA1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<div id="post-body-7273343903178272230" class="post-body entry-content">
<br><div>Why does this happen? </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Predominantly because developers have become aware that demand is fading, and are understandably reluctant to commence a project if the sale of the end product for an acceptable profit is in doubt. </div>
<br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">House commencements robust</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Detached houses on average take 6 to 8 months from commencement to completion, although sometimes a bit less than six months in the sprawling greenfield sites of Queensland and the Northern Territory. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In Western Australia, detached house commencements peaked in the middle of 2014 as it became increasingly clear that the resources sector was slowing significantly and demand for housing was dropping.  </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Elsewhere commencements for detached homes remain fairly robust in trend terms, while in Victoria sentiment appears to be positively serene. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This is not without reason: population growth in Victoria is tracking at close to 115,000 per annum with inbound interstate migration heading to record highs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>With variable rate home loans available from well under 4 per cent buyers for new homes in Melbourne should be sourced reasonably comfortably over the next few quarters.</div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/10/17/BA2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/10/17/BA2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>Progressively through the cycles, Sydney is increasingly struggling to provide new build houses at affordable prices - the successive peaks in new house construction are falling - except out towards the western and south-western city fringes where infrastructure is painfully sparse and demand for housing inherently lower. </div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Other dwellings - units</span></strong><br><br>The dynamic for the market in attached dwellings is markedly different!<br><br><div>This construction cycle has seen the approval of more high density and 'high rise' apartments than ever before. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>A unit or apartment project might take 15 to 21 months on average to be completed from the point of commencement, which in part explains why completions have taken so long to have an impact through this cycle.<br><br>In Sydney and Melbourne it is usual for apartment projects to take more than 24 months to complete on average, largely due to brownfield site remediation challenges (the figure is much lower in Queensland, for example, at around 19 to 20 months). <br><br>With lead times for new apartments so much longer, developers are often required to ensure a certain percentage of pre-sales before project financing can be secured. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Commencements of attached dwellings remain strong in New South Wales. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall, in fact, we should expect attached dwelling commencements to remain higher than their long run averages in Sydney (on average, through the cycle), since over the last three decades fewer houses are being constructed, while population growth today is typically higher. For now at least.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Concentration risk</span></strong>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) provided some useful analysis of how many inner city apartments are expected to be completed in the next two years.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In Sydney the number is 10,000, representing a relatively low share of the established dwelling stock when compared to other cites.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sydney's construction boom is quite widely dispersed, although as usual there will only be a comparatively small increase in the dwelling stock in the beachside eastern suburbs or the treasured garden suburbs of the lower north shore. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In LGAs such as Parramatta, on the other hand, there are still thousands more apartment completions expected, and the north west is another region that is expected to suffer from oversupply. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/10/17/RBA.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/10/17/RBA.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Source: Reserve Bank</span></em></div>
<div> </div>
<div>In Melbourne (16,000) and Brisbane (12,000) the number of expected inner city apartment completions is both higher and more concentrated, and as such will also represent a greater percentage increase in the dwelling stock.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This has been well enough known for some time, not least by developers with their ears to the ground. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sure enough, total attached dwelling commencements are now in decline in Victoria and Queensland, while in Western Australia they peaked all the way back in 2014. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/10/17/BA3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/10/17/BA3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>In the southern states the figures for attached dwellings are relatively immaterial, and thus are not included for discussion here. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In both Melbourne and Brisbane it is easily possible to find plenty of examples of apartments being resold for less than they were initially bought for 'as new', a sure sign of the impending downturn.<br><span><br></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span>The wrap</span></span></strong><br><span><br></span><span>Attached dwelling commencements are likely to decline further through 2017 as developers fear that new off-the-plan purchasers are at risk of not settling, particularly those based offshore. </span><br><span><br></span><span>To date, non-settlements have reportedly remained low, and material losses to banks have not yet resulted.</span><br><span><br></span><span>In theory - at least in areas and property types that people actually want to live in! - while credit remains available markets should be self-correcting in time as dwelling commencements fall, and buyers sensing bargains populate the newly supplied markets. </span><br><span><br></span><span>The Reserve Bank took a detailed look at the apartment sector in its bi-annual Financial Stability Review, and concluded:</span><br><em><br></em><em>"Any oversupply in Australia would be more localised to certain geographic areas, and potential price falls tempered as the population moved to absorb the new (and cheaper) supply of housing in these areas over time."</em><br><em><br></em><span>Of course, central banks rarely predict catastrophes, for fear that they may become self-fulfilling. </span><span>Be vigilant!</span>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Demand is fading, let the apartment downturn commence: Pete Wargent

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Despite repeated warnings around apartment oversupply and settlement risk, the number of dwellings being approved for construction across the capital cities remains unquestionably strong.</p>
<p>In July 2016, there were 17,380 capital city dwelling approvals which was the highest number of approvals since October 2015.  It was also the third highest monthly number of capital city dwelling approvals on record.  Despite a recent slowdown in capital city dwelling approvals there was a substantial rebound in July 2016.</p>
<div>
<h3>Monthly and 6 month average number of capital city house and unit approvals</h3>
<p><a href="/images/2016/10/04/2016-09-26--image1.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/10/04/2016-09-26--image1.png" alt=""></p>
<h3>6 month average number of capital city dwelling approvals</h3>
<p><a href="/images/2016/10/04/2016-09-26--image2.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/10/04/2016-09-26--image2.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Looking at the split between houses and units over the month, there were 6,482 houses and 10,898 units approved for construction across the combined capital cities.  There have now been more units approved for construction than houses across the combined capital cities for 22 consecutive months.  Over the 12 months to July 2016, 57.9% of all capital city dwelling approvals were for units.</p>
<h3>6 month average number of capital city house approvals</h3>
<p><a href="/images/2016/10/04/2016-09-26--image3.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/10/04/2016-09-26--image3.png" alt=""></p>
<h3>6 month average number of capital city unit approvals</h3>
<p><a href="/images/2016/10/04/2016-09-26--image4.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/10/04/2016-09-26--image4.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Over the past year, there have been 76,356 capital city houses and 104,835 capital city units approved for construction.  In each of: Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Canberra there have been more units than houses approved for construction over the past year.</p>
<p><strong>Sydney</strong> - there were 54,667 dwelling approvals over the past year which is 7.3% higher than the previous year.  This figure comprised of 16,360 house approvals (+3.2% yoy) and 38,307 unit approvals (+9.1% yoy).</p>
<p><strong>Melbourne</strong> – over the year to July 2016 there were 57,428 dwellings approvals which was -0.2% lower over the year.  25,880 of these approvals were for houses and 31,548 were units, with the year-on-year changes recorded at +11.2% and <br>-7.9% respectively.</p>
<p><strong>Brisbane</strong> – The 30,901 dwelling approvals over the past year consisted of 11,210 houses and 19,691 units.  Overall approvals are 4.0% higher over the year with house approvals -1.4% lower and unit approvals 7.4% higher. </p>
<p><strong>Adelaide</strong> – there were 6,119 houses and 3,899 units approved over the past year resulting in 10,018 total approvals.  Over the past year, dwelling approvals are 10.9% higher with house approvals up 9.3% and unit approvals 13.5% higher.</p>
<p><strong>Perth</strong> – the number of annual dwellings approvals fell by -24.3% over the year to 20,963.  Over the year, the 14,202 house approvals were -26.7% fewer than the previous year and the 6,761 unit approvals were -18.6% less than a year ago.</p>
<p><strong>Hobart </strong>– there were only 989 new dwellings approved for construction over the year, 799 of which were houses and 190 units.  House approvals were -22.7% lower year-on-year and unit approvals were down -10.8%.</p>
<p><strong>Darwin</strong> – there were 1,304 dwelling approvals over the past year which was -12.7% lower year-on-year.  Over the year, the 657 house approvals was -22.8% lower than the previous year and the 647 unit approvals were 0.6% higher than the previous year.</p>
<p><strong>Canberra</strong> – there were 1,129 houses and 3,792 units approved for construction over the past 12 months.  There were -8.1% fewer house approvals than over the previous year while unit approvals were 24.7% higher over the year.</p>
<p>Despite policy makers and analysts (including CoreLogic) voicing concerns about the level of housing construction currently underway, particularly for units, approvals in capital cities generally remain unquestionably strong.  From here it will be interesting to see how many of these approvals immediately progress to commencement and ultimately through to a completion.  Tighter lending conditions for both developers and purchasers for off-the-plan units is likely to result in a larger proportion of approvals that don’t proceed through to a finished product.  The data also reiterates why purchasers of off-the-plan units in major capital city housing markets should be very selective with regard to the types of units they purchase.</p>
<p>Importantly, oversupply concerns are most visible across specific and well defined geographic areas and product types. CoreLogic’s Settlement Risk Report identifies the Melbourne inner city and Brisbane inner city as the two markets where the largest amount of unit supply is likely to be delivered over the next 24 months.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.</em></p>
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Capital city dwelling approvals rebounding: Cameron Kusher

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>With a record-high number of units currently under construction nationwide, the capital growth performance of units is weaker than houses in certain cities and we anticipate that this trend will continue.</p>
<p>The CoreLogic Home Value Index shows that over the 12 months to August 2016, combined capital city house values have increased by 7.2 percent compared to a 5.5 percent rise in unit values.</p>
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<h3>Rolling annual change in house and unit values, combined capital cities</h3>
<p><a href="/images/2016/09/13/2016-09-12--image1.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/09/13/2016-09-12--image1.png" alt=""></p>
<p>The first chart shows the annual change in combined capital city house and unit values over time.  The chart shows that typically the change in house values is greater than units.  What is interesting though is that during the past two instances of value declines nationally, house values have actually recorded greater annual falls than units.</p>
<p>While the rate of annual growth for units has been only slightly lower than that of houses across the combined capital cities, across individual cities the trends vary significantly.  Hobart and Darwin are the only two capital cities in which the change in unit values over the past year has been greater than the change in house values. </p>
<h3>Annual change in individual capital city house and unit values 12 months to August 2016</h3>
<p><a href="/images/2016/09/13/2016-09-12--image2.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/09/13/2016-09-12--image2.png" alt=""></p>
<p>In Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Canberra, the change in unit values over the past year has been less than half that of houses.  This in itself is interesting, particularly when you consider that Melbourne and Brisbane in particular are currently experiencing historic high levels of new unit construction.  The fact that in many of these cities substantial increases in unit stock is expected over the coming years, it is reasonable to anticipate that the gap between the annual change in house and unit value will persist and potentially grow larger.</p>
<p>Taking a longer-term look at the change in house and unit values since December 2008 shows clearly that overall value growth has been much stronger in Sydney and Melbourne than anywhere else.  Over the period, both house and unit values are higher across each capital city however, houses have outperformed units in all cities except Hobart and Darwin.  In Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and Canberra, the cumulative growth in unit values has been less than half that of houses over the period.</p>
<h3>Total change in house and unit values, December 2008 to August 2016</h3>
<p><a href="/images/2016/09/13/2016-09-12--image3.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/09/13/2016-09-12--image3.png" alt=""></p>
<p>The data shows that we’re already seeing the growth in unit values generally underperforming houses values.  Of course, over recent years the overall supply of units, particularly in inner city areas has increased substantially with even more new stock to come.  The most recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that nationally there were 152,449 units under construction at the end of the March 2016 with an additional 41,548 units approved for construction to July 2016, many of which would have already commenced construction.</p>
<p>While demand for inner-city housing, particularly units, has increased significantly over recent years the heightened level of unit construction has the potential to create problems for the housing market.  While an increase in housing supply is important, much of the new unit stock to-date has been targeted at an investor market.  From an investors perspective units offer higher yields and lower prices than houses however, in many cities recent growth has underperformed while the rental market is the weakest it has been in more than two decades.  With additional unit stock under construction, there is the potential as this stock enters the market the rental market will become even more depressed.</p>
<h3>Quarterly number of houses and units under construction, National</h3>
<p><a href="/images/2016/09/13/2016-09-12--image4.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/09/13/2016-09-12--image4.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Over the coming years we anticipate that the performance of houses and units could diverge even further.  While units offer a much more affordable purchase price than houses, as the supply of units relative to houses increases, we would expect demand for detached houses to hold-up much better than demand for units.  Especially considering much of the new unit stock has to-date been one or two bedrooms, of a similar internal size and design and very much targeted at a similar market segment.</p>
<p>For those people who are looking to purchase a unit at a time when supply levels are moving through record highs, projects which are differentiated from the broader market, based on their location, design, owner mix or quality of the developer may provide some safe haven from the weaker unit market conditions.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.</em></p>
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