Melbourne developer Spacious Group has completed Voyage Altona, one of the closest new apartment developments to Altona Beach.

Off the plan purchasers have started moving into the 49-apartment project on Pier Street, with the remaining move-in-ready one-, two- and three-bedroom apartments starting from just over $500,000.

Display apartments have now been fitted out, allowing prospective buyers to inspect the completed residences by appointment.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112195 project_image_fid=372638]

The completed apartments feature open-plan living and dining areas which extend onto private balconies and terraces, while full-height glazing maximises natural light throughout the interiors.&nbsp;

Hybrid timber-look flooring, stone benchtops, Miele appliances, porcelain-tiled bathrooms and generous storage feature throughout the building which also features landscaped communal areas, expansive shared terraces, lift access and secure on-grade parking.

Drawing inspiration from its bayside setting, Voyage adopts a restrained palette of warm neutral tones and textured finishes. Many of the apartments take advantage of views across Port Phillip Bay, while the indoor-outdoor living spaces have been designed to make the most of the coastal outlook.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112195 project_image_fid=3286]

Voyage was developed to address what Spacious Group identified as an undersupply of higher-quality apartment product in Altona, with a focus on owner-occupiers looking to remain within the bayside community.

"Voyage responds to very strong local buyer demand for quality, owner-occupier-focused product," says Barry Plant Projects Director Jarrod Farey, who has handled sales since the project's launch.

"The project delivers an elevated lifestyle proposition, with its design and quality of finish far exceeding anything previously produced in the area, as well as its proximity to Pier Street Village and the beach."

The majority of purchasers have been local downsizers and owner-occupiers looking to stay within the Altona community but who previously had limited opportunities to buy a brand-new apartment.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112195]

Joel Robinson

Spacious Group completes Voyage Altona in Altona's beachside precinct

Homecorp has secured approval for a $360 million apartment development at Budds Beach, paving the way for one of the Gold Coast's most amenity-rich residential projects to launch later this year.

Gold Coast City Council has approved Lýon Residences, a 32-level tower that will deliver 178 two and three-bedroom apartments across a prominent corner site at 8-10 Acacia Avenue and 25-27 Oak Avenue.

The approval comes as developers continue to invest in premium lifestyle-driven apartment projects on the Gold Coast, where owner occupiers are increasingly prioritising amenity as much as apartment size and location.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/l-on-residences-25-27-oak-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Lýon Residences</a> has been designed around a resort-style wellness offering, headlined by a Moroccan-inspired spa precinct featuring treatment rooms, a Nordic sauna and steam room, hot and cold plunge pools, a soaking pool and a residents-only juice bar.

The rooftop will include a heated infinity pool and spa, residents' lounge with private kitchen and bar, gymnasium, yoga and Pilates studio, outdoor entertaining areas and barbecue facilities overlooking the Surfers Paradise skyline.

<img alt="Lyon" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2d3e29af-8793-486e-a684-52cef862241f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-15%20at%204.32.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ayG2zpLf3SS6Zy8XmKDcQods4kVWb0gm" />

Homecorp Founder and CEO Ron Bakir said Budds Beach provided the ideal location for the company's latest luxury apartment project.

"Budds Beach represents one of the most unique and sought-after pockets of the Gold Coast, and Lýon Residences has been designed to reflect that sense of rarity and refinement," Bakir said.

The project arrives as wellness continues to become a defining feature of new residential developments both in Australia and internationally.

The latest Global Wellness Institute figures show wellness real estate remains the fastest-growing segment of the global wellness economy and is forecast to exceed $1.8 trillion by 2030. Australia continues to rank among the world's 15 largest wellness real estate markets, with developers increasingly integrating health, recreation and community facilities into apartment projects.

Queensland is also experiencing strong population growth, with the Gold Coast continuing to outperform many other Australian cities as demand for new housing remains elevated ahead of the 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

Bakir said the project had been designed to respond to that shift in buyer expectations.

"Strong population growth and sustained demand across the Gold Coast continue to highlight the need for well-designed new housing supply. Lýon Residences responds directly to this demand while setting a new benchmark for residential living," he said.

Each apartment has been designed to maximise views across the coastline, the Nerang River and the Gold Coast hinterland.

Located just minutes from Surfers Paradise beach and the Broadwater, the development also offers easy access to the light rail network, Broadbeach and Burleigh Heads.

Early site works are underway, with construction expected to commence later this year.

Homecorp approved for Budds Beach apartment tower, Lýon Residences

New apartment developments with uninterrupted, north-facing views over Perth's Swan River are exceptionally rare.

Recognising just how limited those opportunities are, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/edge-visionary-living">Edge Visionary Living</a>, one of Perth's most respected builder-developers, targeted <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/applecross-wa-6153">Applecross</a>, assembling an unrepeatable 6,342 sqm riverfront site on the corner of Moreau Mews and Canning Beach Road to create one of Perth's only new north-facing apartment developments directly overlooking the Swan River.

Today, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/riviere-residences-applecross-59-canning-beach-road-applecross-wa-6153">Rivière Residences</a> offers buyers a unique opportunity to choose between completed residences ready to move into now and off-the-plan homes in the final stage, Rivière West.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=28384 project_image_fid=3823]

Across the completed East and Central buildings, residents are already enjoying the development's luxury amenity, while two of the precinct's hospitality venues are now open.

The completed component of the development gives buyers the advantage of experiencing the finished product firsthand, including its uninterrupted river views, while still having the opportunity to secure a residence in the final stage.

"People are wowed by the view and the quality of the apartments,"&nbsp;Edge Visionary Living Sales Executive, Holly McSweeney, says.

"They're looking for the convenience of lock-and-leave living, but they're not looking to downsize on quality."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=28384 project_image_fid=3826]

The rarity of the development hasn't been lost on prospective buyers, McSweeney says.

For McSweeney, it all comes back to a location that is becoming increasingly difficult to replicate.

"Location, location, location," she says. "We are nestled right on the front of the Swan River. You can never get built out, so wherever you are in Rivière Residences, you've got views of the river forever."

The unique waterfront position has resonated particularly strongly with local downsizers. McSweeney says many buyers are long-time Applecross residents looking to transition from large family homes into a luxury apartment without sacrificing space, quality or the lifestyle they've enjoyed for decades.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/N_FowNW0wu8?si=vb25XFq1wZ-iufAW" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

A major focus for Edge in recent years has been resident amenity. Across its apartment portfolio, from beachfront developments in Scarborough to luxury towers in South Perth, the developer has increasingly invested in the spaces beyond the apartment itself.

The strategy has largely been shaped by downsizer demand. Many buyers are moving from large family homes with swimming pools and established gardens. While they're looking to leave the maintenance behind, they don't want to compromise on lifestyle.

At Rivière, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hillam-architects">Hillam Architects</a> designed the resident facilities as an extension of each apartment. A 25-metre heated swimming pool takes advantage of the north-facing river outlook, complemented by a large gym, sauna and steam rooms, private dining spaces, residents' lounges, a cinema, games room, and dedicated wine and whisky rooms.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=28384 project_image_fid=372542]

The waterfront location has also proved to be a major drawcard. Residents are within walking distance of the Raffles Hotel, South of Perth Yacht Club, the Heathcote Cultural Precinct and the cafés, restaurants and boutiques along Ardross Street.

Beyond the location and amenity, McSweeney says many buyers take confidence from Edge's fully integrated development model.

Having delivered apartments across Perth for decades, Edge now designs, develops and constructs its projects in-house, giving the company greater control over quality, delivery and the finished product.

"What I love is when people walk through their apartment for the first time and say, 'This is better than what we imagined,'" McSweeney says. "We hear that all the time."

Completed apartments in the East and Central buildings are now available to inspect by appointment, while Rivière West, the final stage of the precinct, is expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=28384]

North-facing Swan River views drive demand at Rivière Residences in Applecross

Nearly 60 per cent of apartments at McNab Group's $220 million The Tannery development in Brisbane's West End have sold ahead of the project's public launch, including a suburb-record $2.57 million sale for a two-bedroom apartment.

The early sales campaign has secured buyers for 50 of the project's 87 apartments, highlighting continued demand for larger owner-occupier apartments that combine generous floorplans with premium lifestyle amenities in one of Brisbane's most tightly held inner-city suburbs.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=143337 project_image_fid=374768]

McNab Group Executive Chairman Michael McNab said selling more than half the project before launch reflected changing buyer expectations.

"Selling more than half the project before public sales open tells us buyers are actively seeking apartments that offer something genuinely different," McNab said.

"Today's buyers are looking beyond four walls. They want homes that genuinely enhance the way they live, with spaces that support health, connection and everyday wellbeing."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=143337 project_image_fid=374767]

A key point of difference for the project is the adaptive reuse of the heritage-listed Dixon's Tannery building, which will become The Retreat, a residents-only wellness precinct rather than being redeveloped into additional apartments.

The Retreat will feature a sauna and steam room, hot and cold plunge pools, a commercial-grade gym, Pilates studio, cinema, library, co-working spaces and private dining room. Rooftop amenities will include a swimming pool, landscaped gardens, outdoor entertaining areas and dog-friendly spaces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=143337 project_image_fid=374760]

Designed by Cottee Parker Architects with interiors by Tom Mark Henry and landscape architecture by Aspect Studios, The Tannery comprises 87 two, three and four-bedroom apartments across 11 levels overlooking the Brisbane River.

Cottee Parker principal Dee Passenger said preserving the original tannery building had been central to the project's design.

"The easy option would have been to maximise the site's development potential with additional apartments. Instead, McNab has chosen to preserve the original tannery as a shared wellness retreat, ensuring this important piece of Brisbane's history remains at the heart of the community."

Passenger said sustainability also played a key role in the design, with materials from the original industrial site salvaged and repurposed throughout the development.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=143337 project_image_fid=374761]

Motiv CEO Carly Cottam said buyers had responded strongly to the combination of larger apartments, wellness facilities and the West End lifestyle.

"We are seeing more buyers looking for homes in the sky that provide the space and functionality of a traditional home, while benefiting from the convenience and lifestyle that apartment living brings," Cottam said.

She said purchasers included both owner occupiers and investors, with demand coming from local buyers as well as interstate purchasers.

Coinciding with the public launch, McNab also announced a partnership with Queensland Ballet, whose neighbouring Thomas Dixon Centre shares historical ties with the original Dixon family.

Located on a 4,465 sqm site at 439 Montague Road, The Tannery overlooks the Brisbane River and is around 10 minutes from the CBD.

Construction is underway, with completion expected in the second half of 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=143337]

More than half of residences sold before public sales as McNab announces significant partnership with Queensland Ballet

McNab's The Tannery nears 60 per cent sold before public release, sets two-bedroom West End record

Iwan Sunito's vision for a landmark mixed-use precinct in Sydney's Inner West has taken a major step forward, with approval granted for the $1.9 billion Five Dock development first unveiled earlier this year.

The approved scheme by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/one-global-capital">One Global Capital</a> will deliver an 80,500 sqm mixed-use precinct comprising 840 apartments, integrated hotel accommodation, commercial and retail space, alongside publicly accessible open space designed to create a new destination for the growing suburb.

"This is a significant milestone for One Global Capital and for the future of housing delivery in Sydney," Sunito said.

"The Housing Delivery Authority was established to identify major housing projects capable of delivering meaningful supply more efficiently, and we are delighted that Spencer Street has been recognised as one of those projects.”

He said the declaration reflected the rapid progress achieved since acquiring control of the site.

"In less than seven months we have progressed from taking control of the site to securing entry into one of the NSW Government's most important planning pathways. It reflects the experience of our team, the strength of our consultant group led by Urbis, and our long-term commitment to delivering transformational projects that contribute to Sydney's future."

When the project was revealed earlier this year, Sunito described the opportunity as one of the strongest development sites he had worked on.

"I probably hadn't appreciated the uniqueness of the site until more recently when putting together the concept plans," Sunito said.

"The proximity to the water, and the golf course opposite, is unlike any other part of Parramatta Road. We have a unique position and view corridors over the water that makes this one of the best sites I've worked on."

The development has evolved since its initial announcement, with the approved plans increasing the residential component from the originally proposed 750 apartments to 840 homes while retaining the project's focus on creating an integrated neighbourhood rather than a standalone residential development.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/a-city-within-a-city-iwan-sunito-flags-1-5-billion-mixed-use-precinct-in-five-dock">"A city within a city": Iwan Sunito flags $1.5 billion mixed-use precinct in Five Dock</a>

The precinct will combine apartments with hotel accommodation, commercial workplaces, retail offerings and public spaces, creating a mixed-use environment intended to serve both residents and the broader Five Dock community. The proposal also continues the collaboration between One Global Capital and internationally recognised architect <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/koichi-takada-architects">Koichi Takada</a>, whose previous work with Sunito includes Infinity, Arc and Skye North Sydney.

Takada previously said the design was driven by a philosophy of integrating nature into the built environment.

"The concept for this development is born from our design approach to naturalising architecture," Takada said.

"The public realm benefits from biophilic design that integrates generous landscaping, and the development is optimised for natural daylight, airflow and water views to foster wellbeing, sustainability and spaces that foster community interaction."

Sunito has consistently described the project as a "city within a city", with a strong emphasis on creating a destination that extends beyond housing.

"We want to create a development that's not only to be seen, but to be experienced by the whole local community," he said.

The approval comes as Five Dock continues its transformation ahead of the opening of the Sydney Metro West line, with the new Five Dock station set to significantly improve connections between the Inner West, Parramatta and the Sydney CBD.&nbsp;

The precinct will also benefit from its proximity to the Parramatta Road corridor, nearby waterfront parklands and established retail and dining offerings that have made Five Dock one of Sydney's most tightly held Inner West suburbs.

Iwan Sunito secures approval for $1.9 billion Five Dock mixed-use precinct

2021 Forecast

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The prime residential forecasts for the 30 cities in Savills World Cities Prime Residential Index highlight the strength of prime residential property.

Average growth for the cities in the index is forecast at 1.6% for 2021. Sentiment is improving as the rollout of the Covid-19 vaccine begins in many countries and, despite the uncertainties which still linger, prime residential property is expected to remain an active market.

The resilience of prime residential markets was highlighted during the second half of 2020. Savills World Cities Prime Residential Index recorded an average increase of 0.8% for the cities in the index at a time when global GDP is recovering from the impact of Covid-19 and subsequent lockdowns.

Many of the factors which helped drive the prime residential market in the second half of 2020 are expected to continue into 2021, including low stock levels in some locations and the desire for more space.

Historically low interest rates, which are expected to remain low for some time, also make the sector attractive for wealth preservation. These factors, and the sector’s strong fundamentals, mean positive price growth is expected in 19 cities, compared with nine that are expected to see small price falls.

<img alt="" height="636" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/savills_world_performance_2021.jpg" width="1200">

Source: Savills Research

<h2>The high fliers: +6%</h2>

Of the cities in the Savills World Cities Prime Residential Index, Seoul saw the strongest growth during 2020 with prices increasing 8.6%. This strong performance is expected to continue over the coming year. The market remains on an upward trend, driven by high demand from historically low interest rates, strong economic performance and short supply.

Berlin and Sydney are the next strongest performers. The German capital has been on an upward trend with high levels of demand that exceed supply. Sydney has seen comparatively weaker performance in recent years but is expected to improve in 2021 as economic activity picks up.

<h2>The strong contenders: +4-6%</h2>

Guangzhou is expected to see the highest growth out of the Chinese cities in the index over the coming year. The city is benefitting from urban regeneration projects as well as its proximity to comparatively higher-valued Shenzhen.

In the USA, as with many Western markets, the search for more space was a pandemic-driven trend during 2020. This is expected to continue over the coming year, benefiting cities that offer space, such as Miami.

Miami also has particularly attractive tax advantages. Should the rise in remote working continue, those who no longer need to stay in one location for work may find Miami appealing.

Mumbai has seen stamp duty changes over the past year. The forecast growth in Mumbai, driven by the stamp duty reduction and low mortgage rates, follows price falls due to an oversupply.

<h2>The steady cities: &gt;0-4%</h2>

Despite the headwinds of 2020, supply remains a significant influencer of price movements. Many cities that expected to see positive growth of up to 4% in 2021 are markets characterised by low supply levels, e.g. San Francisco, Amsterdam and Tokyo.

London’s prime market is expected to see a turnaround, with forecast growth underpinned by the value on offer compared with its peak in 2014.

The Chinese cities of Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou and Beijing are expected to see growth of between 0% and 4%. These markets have performed well in 2020 as economic activity returned. Residential is seen as a safe investment, which is expected to continue in 2021. Beijing has a slightly weaker forecast than the other cities in China due to heavy local regulation.

<h2>A softening of prices: -2-0%</h2>

Some prime residential markets are more reliant on international demand than others. For these markets, travel restrictions have hindered performance during the past year. While vaccine news does bolster optimism for the return of travel, a number of markets that are driven by international demand, including Dubai, Kuala Lumpur and Lisbon, are expected to see a slight softening of prices over the coming year. Lower international demand is also expected to impact the prime market in Paris.

A weaker economic environment is expected to impede growth in a number of cities in Southern Europe, including Milan, Rome, Barcelona and Madrid, while oversupply also continues to play a role for a few cities in this price growth tier, namely Bangkok and Dubai.

<h2>Down, but not out: &lt;-2%</h2>

In Hong Kong, the highest valued city in our index, prices have been impacted by political uncertainty. Prime values are expected to continue their downward trend over the coming year.

New York’s prime market has been on a downward trend in recent years due to oversupply. The pandemic has also caused a temporary move away from densely populated urban living – whether this becomes a long-term trend, however, still remains to be seen.

Sean Hyett is an analyst for Savills World Research
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Sydney forecast to sit among the 2021 residential high fliers: Savills

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The international residential and commercial real estate agency Knight Frank have put forward their top 10 predictions for 2021 in their recently released 2021 Outlook report.

Ben Burston, Knight Frank Australia's chief economist who authored the report, says that despite trade tensions and economic and environmental challenges at the start of 2020, the outlook for property markets seem bright.

"The market continued to respond positively to low interest rates and the weight of private and institutional capital seeking to be deployed", Burston said.

He says the advent of COVID-10 however has "upended the proverbial apple cart."

"Focus on the long-term challenge of weak productivity growth globally and locally has given way to the more pressing and immediate need to minimise the health and economic impact of the pandemic.

"Similarly, for many in property the focus for 2020 quickly shifted from identifying opportunities for future growth to managing existing assets and risks to income during a tumultuous period."

Below are Knight Frank's top 10 predictions.

<h2>1. Urbanisation on hold, but cities will re-asset their strength</h2>

<blockquote>
"At one level, COVID‑19 seemingly threatens to up-end the status quo of city-centricity, but the weight of evidence on the relative productivity of cities argues strongly that they will remain the engine rooms of the national and global economy. Importantly though, this will no longer be dominated by our major cities. Regional cities like Wollongong, Newcastle, Geelong and the Gold Coast will see accelerated growth. They have sufficient scale and critical mass of service sector jobs to continue to develop rapidly, while also benefitting from a tilt in lifestyle choices due to the pandemic that will see some people opting for a less CBD-centric working life."
</blockquote>

<h2>2. ‘Thinking big’ on next wave of transport and social infrastructure projects</h2>

<blockquote>
"Governments will be seeking to move the needle on economic recovery in 2021 with an ongoing pipeline of new infrastructure projects, enabled by the low interest rate environment. We expect to see renewed debate on projects previously considered to be too expensive or not an immediate priority, such as faster rail connections between Sydney, Newcastle and Wollongong, additional airport capacity for Melbourne and improved access for cyclists in all of our major CBDs. Besides these transport initiatives, we expect more emphasis to be given to social infrastructure projects going forward, encompassing social and affordable housing, renewable energy and aged care facilities."
</blockquote>

<h2>3. Offices will adapt to remain key to collaboration, training and cultural cohesion</h2>

<blockquote>
"Hybrid work arrangements will result in a shift in emphasis for offices toward their central role as an enabler of collaboration, culture and connection, with less emphasis being placed on facilitating individual, focussed work. Physical offices will be increasingly grounded in the concept of wellness, both mental and physical, meaning greater emphasis on green spaces, exercise and retreat rooms as well as natural light. In an environment of higher vacancy and the greater choice this implies for tenants, lower grade space which cannot meet more stringent requirements will increasingly become redundant."
</blockquote>

<h2>4. The landlord-tenant relationship will need to adjust</h2>

<blockquote>
"Flexibility will be increasingly sought by tenants, and landlords will have to adapt to these changes. Reflecting uncertainty over future space needs, large tenants will seek a mix of core leased space and flex spaces which can be scaled up and down as needed, and also look for an end-to-end service where workplace planning, design, fitout, head lease and flex space are managed under the one umbrella. Alongside more frequent break clauses, this will place greater management pressure on assets with long WALE tenancy schedules potentially having a number of break points."
</blockquote>

<h2>5. Shifting pattern of prime residential demand</h2>

<blockquote>
"The COVID-19 pandemic, subsequent lockdowns and closed state and international borders have given people time to reflect on their lifestyles. Demands on the home are expanding, reflecting changes in the way they live and use their space. As a consequence, more and more people are seeking detached family homes and favouring waterfront and rural homes in particular. Large gardens and outdoor space are now more of a priority, with the lockdown period emphasising the connection between wellbeing and the great outdoors. All of this will drive strong demand for prime property in 2021, with prices in our major cities set to rise, led by Sydney, Perth and the Gold Coast."
</blockquote>

<h2>6. Short supply of prestige residential rentals</h2>

<blockquote>
"Whilst the major cities across Australia have experienced minimal uplift in new sales listings, over the past year prime rental properties have also become scarce, in stark contrast to the mainstream residential market. We anticipate strong rental growth in the prestige market during 2021 driven by increased renovation activity, demand for part-time city living to complement rural or country homes and rising expat demand."
</blockquote>

<h2>7. Investment performance will be relatively strong compared with previous downturns</h2>

<blockquote>
"Given the high level of uncertainty over the economic outlook, forecasting returns is more challenging than normal. But on the basis of a gradual recovery with no further major lockdowns, we expect capital growth in the office sector to average -1% for calendar year 2020 and -2% in 2021, leaving total returns a little over 4% and 3% respectively. The investment return performance of the industrial sector will continue to be relatively strong, with total returns likely remain around or just under 10% in 2020 and 2021. This would mark a much stronger return performance than that experienced during the GFC."
</blockquote>

<h2>8. Premium on income security as investors look to re-weight and adapt their portfolios toward industrial and specialist sectors</h2>

<blockquote>
"Question marks over the strength of occupier demand in the office and retail sectors are resulting in a reassessment of risk with a greater focus on covenant strength and length of income. This will continue to drive strong demand for industrial and logistics property in 2021, as investors seek to increase their portfolio weightings to the sector. This will drive further yield compression in the industrial market, supported by the adjustment to lower interest rates. In addition, the desire for defensive income returns and diversification will see a further expansion of specialist asset classes such as healthcare, cold storage, data centres and build‑to‑rent."
</blockquote>

<h2>9. Overseas investors to drive the office market in 2021</h2>

<blockquote>
"In a more challenging environment, with higher risks to income and less expectation of capital growth, we expect overseas buyers to step up their share of major acquisitions. Major global funds are more accustomed to the shift‑down in interest rates and lower capital growth expectations, and overseas family offices will at times be driven more by the desire to diversify and preserve capital over the long term. On the other hand, domestic investors seeking higher returns will be cautious until the risks to the occupier market ease."
</blockquote>

<h2>10. Lower return environment will drive appetite for debt strategies and boost competition in non-bank lending</h2>

<blockquote>
"The shift to a lower return environment will see a further deepening in the real estate debt market during 2021 with a proliferation in the number of lenders and a widening of their remit to offer greater diversification within the space. Lower expected capital growth will narrow the gap between expected returns on equity and debt strategies, tilting the risk/return dynamic toward debt. The entry of new non‑bank lenders into the debt market will widen competition resulting in a broadening of the scope of borrowing available to borrowers, including longer loan tenors and higher LVRs than traditional bank lenders will offer."
</blockquote>
</body></html>

The international residential and commercial real estate agency Knight Frank have put forward their top 10 predictions for 2021 in their recently released 2021 Outlook report.

Cities to reassess their strength: Knight Frank's top 10 predictions for 2021

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An overwhelming majority of respondents to Australian Property Investor’s latest Buyer Sentiment Survey say they are expecting prices to rise in 2021.

It's a reversal on the previous survey’s results which showed nearly half of those polled were tipping home values to fall.

More than 75 per cent of respondents said they were expecting house prices to rise in 2021 in the Q4 survey, as compared to just 14 per cent in Q3.

On the flipside, just 7 per cent of respondents said they expected values to drop in the next 12 months, down from 47 per cent in Q3.

“The results are in line with soaring consumer confidence,” API editor Dan Wilkie said.

“Buyers have been red hot in the back end of 2020," he said, adding many are clearly expecting the "momentum to continue to build next year.”

Queensland was the state of choice for buyers, with 31 per cent of respondents saying they had their eye on the Sunshine State.

Victoria was next at 26 per cent or respondents, followed by NSW at 23 per cent.

Just 12 per cent of respondents said they intended to buy in Perth.

“Brisbane, the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast have become highlights of the Australian market as Melbourne and Sydney buyers moved north this year,” Mr Wilkie said.

Housing affordability emerged as the biggest concern for those surveyed, replacing tenants’ ability to pay rent due to COVID as the top worry in Q3.

A vast majority of respondents (53 per cent) said a detached house was their property of choice, followed by townhouse or villa at 17 per cent, while 13 per cent of respondents said they were considering buying an apartment.

The survey received more than 300 responses, 63 per cent of which were property investors.

New South Wales accounted for 32 per cent of survey responses, Victoria 29 per cent and Queensland 19 per cent.
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It's a reversal on the previous survey’s results which showed nearly half of those polled were tipping home values to fall.

urban.com.au

75 percent of investors expect property prices to rise in 2021

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Property prices are expected to rise across multiple markets in 2021, according to ME’s head of home loans, Andrew Bartolo. 

He expects a resilient housing market that has weathered the economic pressures of COVID-19 together with lower interest rates will give homebuyers and investors’ confidence.  

According to a ME survey of 1,500 households conducted this month, 46 percent of owner occupiers expect the value of their dwelling to increase during 2021.

Only 5 percent anticipate a decline reflecting a substantial change from six-month prior when only 22 percent expected dwelling prices to rise and 25 percent expected them to decline.

Sentiment among those intending to buy or sell in the next 12 months will likely be "two-speed," he expects.

"Many will be looking to buy or sell as soon as possible, while others may delay their move until they feel more confident about their own personal finances and/or the economy.”

Buyer activity is expected to be up year on year due to so much of 2020 being affected by lockdowns and buyers and sellers waiting to see. 

“More investors will re-emerge in 2021 in search of income and capital growth.

"Record low interest rates will drive momentum across the market.

“Strong first home buyer activity will also continue, after a brief dip in property prices.

"Historically low interest rates, stamp duty exemptions, government grants and the absence of foreign investors will continue to propel first home buyers into action.”

He expects early 2021 is expected to be a bumper property season that will rival the traditional spring frenzy as buyers respond to a late surge in auction listings. 

“Topping the property trends in 2021 is the desire for ‘urban village’ living, related to the significant increase of professionals working from home," he noted.

“While there are still many challenges including unemployment, job insecurity and lower immigration, we’re seeing some positive signs: improved consumer confidence, stronger auction clearance rates, more transactions, and falling loan deferrals – generally considered proof of a healthier market."
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Property prices are expected to rise across multiple markets in 2021, according to ME’s head of home loans, Andrew Bartolo

jchancellor

Property prices to rise across multiple markets in 2021: ME’s Andrew Bartolo. 

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Property transactions will increase by about a quarter in 2021 after a significant slump through the middle of 2020, according to research from RiskWise Property Research.  

Doron Peleg, CEO of RiskWise Property Research noted that “although transactions in the established market continued to flow through in modest volumes, through April and May off the plan sales were becoming increasingly scarce.”

“The exact final numbers will only be known in the fullness of time, but it seems likely that with total stock listings stuck at low levels deep into 2020, stamp duty coffers will experience a substantial hole due to this year’s major disruptions” Mr Peleg said.  

Mr Peleg said market research suggested that there is "a significant burst of pent-up demand set to be unleashed" as Victoria’s economy has reopened and travel restrictions are eased.

Pete Wargent of BuyersBuyers.com.au said that the biggest unknown factor is whether the international borders will be open and flights operational before the second quarter of calendar year 2021”. 

“While acknowledging the potential for delays in vaccine progress, it seems likely that residential property transactions will increase by a quarter in 2021 as in addition to homebuyers we’re now seeing property investors also returning to the fold, lured by the prospect of neutral-to-positively geared investments”.  

Pete Wargent noted “2020 has been one of the most unusual years on record for real estate markets in Australia.”

“We came into the year with relatively low unemployment and confidence running at a solid clip, but as the first quarter of the calendar year progressed it became increasingly clear that significant disruption could be on the cards.” Mr Wargent said. 

“We then had multiple buyers putting their searches on hold until the situation became clearer.

"But now it’s notable that they’re feeling confident enough to buy again”.

 
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Property transactions will increase by about a quarter in 2021 after a significant slump through the middle of 2020, according to research from RiskWise Property Research

Property transactions to spike by a quarter 2021: RiskWise

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EXPERT OBSERVER

2020 didn’t exactly turn out the way I or many expected a year ago. For Australia, the year started badly as severe drought had given way to the worst bushfires on record. But just as the bushfires were receding it gave way to the coronavirus pandemic. Every year has a big surprise - or what Dr Don Stammer has long called Factor X - but they don’t usually have such a profound impact as the coronavirus pandemic has.

- It caused a massive health crisis claiming at least 1.5 million lives, with many countries seeing at least two waves.

- It kept many confined to their homes and shut down big chunks of economies, driving the biggest fall in economic activity since the end of WW2 if not the Great Depression, with major economies seeing peak to trough falls in GDP of 10% to 20% and the Australian economy contracting by 7.3%. This saw unemployment surge and inflation plunge.

- Share markets had 35% or so plunges in February/March, commodity prices collapsed with the oil price going negative at one point as investors sought out safe havens like bonds.

- And it, or rather the poor management of it, lost President Trump the US election (even though he denies losing).

The pandemic also increased tensions with China and is likely to leave a longer term mark with a further set back to globalisation, more social tensions, bigger government and public debt, the risk that massive money printing eventually results in higher inflation, faster structural change due to an accelerated embrace of technology, more consumer caution and a lower population in Australia due to the hit to immigration.

However, while 2020 is a year many of us would prefer to forget and coronavirus continues to wreak havoc in much of the world, the end result for economies hasn’t been as bad as had been feared back in March and April. This reflected a combination of:

- An unprecedented and rapid fiscal stimulus that protected businesses, jobs and incomes;

- Debt forbearance schemes that headed off defaults;

- Massive monetary stimulus that saw interest rates plunge;

- Social distancing which has helped contain the virus enabling some reopening – albeit better in some countries (eg, Asia, Australia and New Zealand) than others.

This enabled economic activity to bounce back faster than expected through the second half as restrictions eased, even though it wasn’t always smooth (eg, in Victoria or in Europe and the US) and we still have a way to go to full recovery. As a result investment markets also performed far better than feared.

- While share markets plunged in March during the early stages of the pandemic, they then rebounded thanks to massive fiscal stimulus and reopening, low interest rates and bond yields that made shares cheap as well as good news on vaccines that enabled investors to look forward to further recovery in 2021.

- This all drove solid returns in global shares with Asian and US shares (which were boosted by a relatively a high exposure to IT and initially health care stocks which benefitted from the pandemic) outperforming. The more cyclical Japanese and European markets underperformed.

- Australian shares also unperformed due to the greater cyclical exposure of the Australian share market.

- Government bonds had reasonable returns as yields fell in response to central bank rate cuts and bond buying along with safe haven demand – which drove capital growth.

- Real estate investment trusts had negative returns as a result of a hit to property space demand and rents.

- It was the same story for unlisted commercial property and infrastructure, although industrial property did well.

- Home prices fell 3% around mid-year but then started to recover as low interest rates, government support measures and reopening swamped the hit to immigration, weak rental markets and higher unemployment. Houses, outer suburbs &amp; regions benefitted from “escape from the city.”

- Cash and bank term deposit returns were poor as the RBA cut the cash rate to just 0.1%.

- After a pandemic driven plunge to $US0.55 in March the $A rose reflecting higher commodity prices and a falling $US.

- Due to reasonable share returns but weak property and infrastructure returns balanced super funds have so far seen low but positive returns – but this followed a strong 2019.

<h2>2021 – recovery</h2>

Just as 2020 was dominated by the pandemic and this determined the relative performance of investment markets and stocks, 2021 is likely to be dominated by the recovery. This in turn will have a profound effect on investment markets. There are four reasons for optimism. First, massive fiscal and monetary stimulus is still feeding through economies with very high saving rates indicating pent up demand that can be spent once confidence improves, which will also help offset the wind down of some support measures like JobKeeper in Australia.

Second, the news on vaccines is positive. While uncertainties remain, by end 2021 or early 2022 there is a good chance the world will be approaching a degree of herd immunity.

Third, a new US president in Joe Biden should usher in a period of more stable and expert based policy making in what is still the world’s biggest economy. In particular, it will likely head off a return to trade wars that could have wreaked havoc in 2021.

A more diplomatic US approach to resolving differences with China could also help Australia move down a path to resolving its own differences with China.

Finally, Australia along with NZ has navigated 2020 remarkably well, controlling coronavirus far better than most comparable countries and seeing its politicians and institutions work well together. It also led to structural reforms that may help future growth (eg, property tax reform in NSW, IR reform nationally).

The combination of vaccines, policy stimulus and pent up demand is expected to see a supercharged cyclical rebound in global GDP of around 5.2% and 4.5% in Australia in 2021. This is likely to see strong double-digit rebounds in profit growth.

Inflation is likely to remain weak, reflecting still high levels of spare capacity which in turn means interest rates will remain low. While this is not good for those relying on bank interest, it benefits the household sector as a whole (with debt exceeding bank deposits) &amp; corporates, eases the servicing of high public debt levels and makes shares cheap. So, in a way we remain in the sweet spot of the investment cycle with improving growth but low rates. In Australia, the cash rate is expected to end 2021 at 0.1% but there is still a risk of more quantitative easing.

<h2>Implications for investors</h2>

Shares are at risk of a short term correction after having ran up so hard recently and 2021 is likely to see a few rough patches along the way (much like we saw in 2010 after the recovery from the GFC), but looking through the inevitable short term noise, the combination of improving global growth and low interest rates augurs well for growth assets generally in 2021. In particular, we are likely to see a continuing shift in performance away from investments that benefitted from the pandemic and lockdowns - like US shares, technology and health care stocks and bonds - to investments that will benefit from recovery - like resources, industrials, tourism stocks and financials.

- Global shares are expected to return around 8%, but expect a rotation away from growth heavy US shares to more cyclical markets in Europe, Japan and emerging countries.

- Australian shares are also likely to be relative outperformers helped by better virus control, enabling a stronger recovery in the near term, stronger stimulus, sectors like resources, industrials and financials benefitting from the rebound in growth and as investors continue to drive a search for year yield benefitting the share market as dividends are increased resulting in a 4.4% grossed up dividend yield. Expect the ASX 200 to end 2021 back around 7200.

- Ultra-low yields &amp; a capital loss from a 0.5-0.75% or so rise in yields are likely to result in negative returns from bonds.

- Unlisted commercial property and infrastructure are ultimately likely to benefit from a resumption of the search for yield but the hit to space demand and hence rents from the virus will continue to weigh on near term returns.

- Australian home prices are being boosted by record low mortgage rates, government home buyer incentives, income support measures and bank payment holidays but high unemployment, a stop to immigration and weak rental markets will likely weigh on inner city areas and units in Melbourne and Sydney. Outer suburbs, houses, smaller cities and regional areas will see stronger gains in 2021.

- Cash and bank deposits are likely to provide very poor returns, given the ultra-low cash rate of just 0.1%.

- Although the $A is vulnerable to bouts of uncertainty about coronavirus and China tensions and RBA bond buying will keep it lower than otherwise, a rising trend is still likely to around $US0.80 over the next 12 months helped by rising commodity prices and a cyclical decline in the US dollar.

<h2>What to watch?</h2>

The main things to keep an eye on in 2021 are as follows:

- Coronavirus and vaccines – problems with vaccines or their deployment could result in ongoing waves of new coronavirus cases &amp; slower recovery than we are assuming.

- US politics – a Democrat victory in Georgia’s January 5 US senate elections would risk more of a leftward tilt under Biden, although conservative Democrat senators will limit this. Trump could also try to throw a spanner in the works.

- China tensions – we expect a shift to a diplomatic approach here but there is a risk of misjudgement on either side which could start to slow our longer-term economic growth rate.

- Inflation – we are assuming it remains weak but if it rebounds faster than expected it will mean faster increases in bond yields and downward pressure on asset valuations.

- The hit to immigration in Australia – it’s hard to see 700,000 less immigrants out to mid-2023 having no impact on inner city Sydney and Melbourne property prices.

Dr Shane Oliver 
Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist AMP Capital
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Just as 2020 was dominated by the pandemic and this determined the relative performance of investment markets and stocks, 2021 is likely to be dominated by the recovery

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Outer suburbs, houses, smaller cities and regional areas will see strongest property gains in 2021: Shane Oliver

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Westpac has lifted its economic growth forecasts for 2020 and 2021 from –3.0% and 2.8% to –2.0% and 4%, respectively. Our growth forecast for 2022 has been lowered from 3.5% to 3.0%.
As a result of this substantial near term boost to the growth forecasts we have also lowered our forecasts for the unemployment rate by December 2021 from 7.0% to 6.0% and 6.3% to 5.2% by December 2022.
Under these forecasts we expect that the level of consumer spending and the level of GDP will return to the “end 2019” levels by the June quarter 2021.
By end 2021 GDP will be around 2% above the end 2019 level but still around 3% below the level of GDP that would have been expected in the absence of covid.
These revisions follow the stronger than expected print for GDP growth in the September quarter (3.3%) compared to our forecast of 3.0% and our revised forecast growth rate in the December quarter of 2020 from 1.6% to 2.3%.
The dominant message from the September quarter national accounts was the 7.9% surge in consumer spending, including 9.8% for services and 5.2% for goods. Consumer spending actually contracted by 1.2% in Victoria while it lifted by 11% in the other states.
As the Victorian economy (around 25% of the national economy) reopens in the December quarter and momentum remains positive in the other states we expect consumer spending to lift by a further 5% in the December quarter.
The key to the revision for 2021 is the expectation that the recent lift in Consumer Sentiment to a seven year will be sustained; the increased momentum in the housing market will continue; a likely commitment by the government to continue to target a lower unemployment rate in the 2021 Budget; the huge boost to markets and global growth prospects with the advent of vaccines; the significant buffer of savings that will accommodate a large fall in the savings rate; ongoing reopening momentum; a likely upward revision to the government’s currently overly pessimistic net migration forecasts.
The headwinds from deferred loans and the tightening of insolvency laws are now seen to be less threatening for the economy as the economy has gathered such momentum in the second half of 2020.
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist at Westpac
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Westpac's Bill Evans optimistically revised 2021 unemployment forecast

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In the month of November, Australian dwelling values (ie, houses and apartments) climbed a solid 0.8% across all metro and non-metro markets according to CoreLogic's hedonic index (specifically, 0.7% in the capital cities and 1.4% across the non-metro regional areas), which we had foreshadowed. If you cannot see the charts below, you can read this note via Livewire here.
With the COVID-19 induced peak-to-trough fall across the nation now officially recorded at 2.1% (revised up from a previously estimated 1.7%), Aussie home values are still 0.9% below the high watermark set at the end of April (on a monthly basis) notwithstanding increases recorded in October (0.4%) and November (0.8%).
Somewhat more remarkably, Australian dwelling values are still 0.5% lower than they were almost 4 years ago. That is to say, there has been no net increase in national house prices since May 2017.
In November, the Melbourne market registered its first full month of capital gains with dwelling values rising by 0.7%, notably outpacing Sydney (0.4%) and Brisbane (0.6%). Healthier house price increases were registered in Perth (1.1%), Adelaide (1.3%), Hobart (1.4%), and Darwin (1.9%) and Canberra (1.9%).
Over the three months to November 2020, capital city dwelling values have increased 0.7%, underperforming regional areas (2.8%) and the combined national market (1.1%).
In all cities, gross rental yields remain above the cost of servicing mortgage debt, which has opened the door to positive (as opposed to negative) gearing. The best rental yields are in Darwin (7.0%), Canberra (5.5%), Adelaide (5.3%), Perth (5.3%), and Brisbane (5.1%). Yields are comparatively low in Sydney (3.3%) and Melbourne (3.7%).
The recovery in the housing market is a crucial plank in the broader national rebound from the 1-in-100 year global pandemic, and a key demonstration of the fact that the RBA's monetary policy transmission mechanism is working. This is especially important with second and third COVID-19 waves cresting around the world, and at a time when Australia faces downside risks from China's assault on our economy.
With housing credit growth running at just 3.3% on an annual basis according to the latest RBA data, and lending standards the toughest they have been in modern banking history, there are scant financial stability risks for regulators to worry about at this juncture.
Clients will recall that Coolabah forecast a tiny 0% to 5% correction in national house prices in March, predicting they would start rising again in September and October (as they did) with total capital gains over the next few years expected to be at least 10% to 20%.
Coolabah has also been consistently very bearish on relations between China and the West.
Christopher Joye is the portfolio manager at <a href="https://coolabahcapital.com" target="_blank">Coolabah Capital Investments</a>
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Australian house prices increase 0.8% in November, but still below May 2017 levels: Coolabah's Christopher Joye

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The success of vaccine tests; Australia’s current strong growth story; and pivots around monetary policy are highly relevant to the market outlook.
The approach to monetary policy in Australia is changing.
In his speech last Monday, the Governor neatly set out the four aspects of current policy.
The nature of forward guidance – “we have now moved to place much more weight on actual outcomes rather than forecast outcomes". A reasonable interpretation here is that particularly due to the combination of globalisation and technology the functioning of labour markets has changed and the need to be pre-emptive with policy has dissipated.
It is now appropriate to wait to see inflation firmly within the 2–3% band AND high wages growth, requiring a return to a tight labour market. Arguably he is making the “tight labour market” a necessary condition so, if for example a spike in inflation resulted from a supply shock then that would be an insufficient condition to raise rates.
Consistent with the above view he emphasises the RBA’s mandate – price stability; full employment; and economic welfare. He confirms the sentiment in 1) by emphasising the need to reduce spare capacity in the labour market – jobs are the central focus and success with jobs will lead to progress on the inflation front.
He discusses “the gravitational pull of low global interest rates” – if that pull, which reflects the global excess of savings over investment, is overlooked developments around the exchange rate and the economy would be adverse.
However, in the Q&amp;A he again describes negative rates as “extraordinarily unlikely” since they make it “harder for banks to lend” although he does accept that the gravitational pull represented by any future decision of the US Federal Reserve to go negative would cause a rethink.
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist at Westpac
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