Construction is now underway at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/cumulus-grand-villas-carrara-17-baltimore-court-carrara-qld-4211">Cumulus Grand Villas</a> in Carrara, with all stages fully funded as <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/venturecrowd-property-projects">VentureCrowd</a> progresses its 59-residence gated community on an elevated ridgeline overlooking 100 hectares of natural savanna.

The commencement marks a key milestone for the Gold Coast project, designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bda-architecture">BDA Architecture</a> and being delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/devcon">Devcon Property Group</a>, at a time when buyers are placing greater emphasis on delivery certainty and builder track record.

With Devcon active in South East Queensland since 1993 and having delivered more than 1,000 homes, the team is positioning Cumulus as a fully financed, under-construction offering in a market where risk mitigation has become a central consideration for off-the-plan purchasers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135663 project_image_fid=360496]

Located at 17 Baltimore Court, Cumulus Grand Villas comprises 59 three- and four-bedroom villas across four collections, Skyline, Canopy, Savanna and Broadview. Pricing starts from $1,455,000, with completion of the first stage targeted for Q4 2026.

Across the four collections, each design represents an expansive and thoughtfully considered offering. The Broadview provides additional flexibility within its floorplan, incorporating a multipurpose room or optional additional bedroom, and is priced from $1,895,000.&nbsp;

Configured across two levels, the four-bedroom villas feature two master bedrooms with private ensuites, as well as a multipurpose room (MPR), supporting intergenerational living, guest accommodation, or the creation of a dedicated retreat space.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135663 project_image_fid=360497]

The main living areas are positioned on the ground floor, while the bedrooms are located upstairs, a configuration that promotes both family separation and connected living. All villas include a second master suite on the ground floor, reinforcing the project’s focus on flexibility and long-term adaptability.

That adaptability was central to BDA Architecture’s design approach. The team sought to create a sophisticated, low-maintenance product that makes the most of the site’s elevation and outlook while responding to evolving household needs. Expansive glazing, open-plan interiors and private outdoor areas draw in natural light and frame views towards the savanna, hinterland and Broadbeach skyline.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135663 project_image_fid=360470]

VentureCrowd Director of Property David Whitting said the project responds to a growing group of buyers reassessing what premium living on the Gold Coast looks like.

Flexible floorplans have proven particularly relevant for purchasers aged between 40 and 65, including next home buyers, downsizers and investors. The inclusion of dual master suites in the Broadview design, along with options for a downstairs MPR or guest bedroom, allows homes to adapt as family dynamics shift, whether accommodating older parents, adult children, or extended stays.

Across the community, villas are specified with European appliances and premium fixtures and fittings, alongside double garages and landscaped private areas. The gated enclave includes number plate recognition entry, reinforcing a focus on security and exclusivity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135663 project_image_fid=360474]

Lifestyle amenity is anchored by the Infinity Terrace, an elevated communal space incorporating a 20m heated pool, alfresco zones and barbecue facilities, designed as a shared retreat within the neighbourhood. A two-acre private nature reserve with walking trails and rehabilitated bushland further integrates the development with its savanna-edge setting, reflecting a broader masterplan initiative to restore native vegetation and habitat corridors.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/carrara-qld-4211">Carrara</a>’s positioning continues to attract attention from prestige buyers seeking proximity to the coast without beachfront pricing. The suburb offers access to major retail centres including Pacific Fair and Robina Town Centre, is around 15 minutes from Broadbeach, and benefits from connectivity via the M1 to Brisbane and the Gold Coast Airport.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135663]

Joel Robinson

VentureCrowd’s Cumulus Grand Villas in Carrara advances with construction underway

Joint venture partners <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/abadeen">Abadeen</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/perifa">PERIFA</a> are officially launching the third and final residential stage at their landmark $350 million harbourfront precinct, Putney Wharf, with The Residences representing the final opportunity to secure a new home within this rare waterfront destination.

Strong demand has already been established across the earlier stages of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/putney-wharf-residences-20-waterview-street-putney-nsw-2112">Putney Wharf</a>, with more than 50 per cent sold ahead of this final release. The Residences will introduce a selection of the precinct’s most premium apartments, many of which were deliberately reserved for this concluding stage.

Located at 20 Waterview Street, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/putney-nsw-2112">Putney</a> NSW, the completed precinct will comprise 67 residences, including 18 terraces and 49 apartments, alongside five retail tenancies and a 36-berth marina.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=13962 project_image_fid=1338]

Developed alongside partners Phoenix Property Investors and Mitsubishi Estate Asia, Putney Wharf occupies a prized 300-metre stretch of absolute waterfront and incorporates the historic former Halvorsen’s Boatshed. The precinct connects directly to surrounding parklands via a landscaped foreshore walkway and a large, landscaped podium linking both sides of the development to the adjoining foreshore parklands.

The Residences comprise two newly built, three-storey apartment buildings delivering a boutique collection of 30 generously proportioned waterfront apartments. Designed to capture harbour outlooks, natural light and cooling breezes, The Residences balance architectural refinement with relaxed, low-maintenance living.

Architecturally designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the apartments continue the cohesive design language seen across the broader precinct. A refined palette of light and dark materials, softer-toned stone and neutral, earthy finishes reflect the surrounding landscape and harbour setting. Interiors feature painted timber veneers, tactile joinery, timber flooring to living spaces and 100 per cent natural wool carpets in bedrooms, creating warm and sophisticated homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=13962 project_image_fid=362525]

Justin Brown, Executive Chairman and Founder of Abadeen, said the release of the final residential stage marks an important milestone for the project.

“Putney Wharf brings together everything we’ve learned over more than 25 years of development,” Mr Brown said. “It respects the site’s extraordinary maritime history while delivering contemporary homes that connect people directly to the harbour.

The Residences offer the rare combination of low-maintenance apartment living, waterfront outlooks with beautiful sunset views, and the convenience of retail and amenity at your doorstep. For boating enthusiasts, the opportunity to secure a private marina berth completes a truly unique Sydney harbourfront lifestyle.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=13962 project_image_fid=291197]

PERIFA Managing Director and Co-Founder Fabrizio Perilli added that the diversity of housing across the precinct has been central to the project’s success.

“Whether it’s the heritage Halvorsen’s apartments, the Waterview Terraces or now The Residences, Putney Wharf offers a range of homes that respond to different lifestyles, all united by an unrivalled harbourfront setting,” Perilli said. “This is a precinct that will add lasting value to the Putney community.”

Managing project marketing and sales, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/srm-residential">SRM Residential</a> Partner Tim Rees said the final release has already attracted strong demand reflecting the project’s unique harbourfront position and the success of earlier stages.

“Following the strong response to both the Halvorsen’s Boatshed residences and the Waterview Terraces, The Residences represent the final chance to secure a new home within this tightly held waterfront precinct,” Rees said. “Buyers are drawn to the rare combination of absolute harbour frontage, parkside living and genuine architectural quality.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=13962 project_image_fid=362240]

Putney Wharf is a one-of-a-kind mixed-use destination, delivering an exclusive residential offering alongside waterfront dining, retail and a 36-berth marina designed to the latest Australian Standards, accommodating vessels up to 18 metres and helping address Sydney Harbour’s ongoing marina shortage.

The precinct will include five retail tenancies and a prominent waterfront jetty area fronting the retail village, creating an activated harbourfront destination for residents and visitors alike.

Residents will enjoy direct access to lush harbourfront parklands, a public foreshore walkway and landscaped podium gardens connecting the development to the surrounding waterfront reserve. Construction across the Putney Wharf precinct is expected to be completed by Q2 2027.

Sales of The Residences officially launch this weekend, with the display suite open Saturday and Sunday from 10am to 12pm at Putney Wharf. Visitors are invited to enjoy a complimentary coffee while touring The Residences and experiencing the Putney Wharf lifestyle firsthand.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=13962]

Final Harbourfront release in Putney Wharf launches this weekend

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/draycon">Draycon Building</a> is nearing completion of Boutique Chevron Island, a 42-apartment development on the northern end of Chevron Island at 17–19 Parneno Street, with a limited-time offer of fully furnished apartments available.

Now more than 90 per cent complete, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/boutique-chevron-island-17-19-parneno-chevron-island-qld-4217">Boutique</a> has been shaped by one of the Gold Coast’s most tightly held island addresses, where riverfront outlooks and walkable access to Surfers Paradise converge.

For Draycon Building Managing Director Howard Dabit, the appeal of the site was immediate.

“I knew it was a good site as soon as I saw it,” Dabit said.

“The position and location on the north end of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/chevron-island-qld-4217">Chevron Island</a>, the way the river swirls around the site basically from the north to the east, it feels like the site is surrounded by the water. The height that we’ve got and the aspect looking north is beautiful. Eighty per cent of the apartments are looking north so they get that drenching sunlight coming in.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=89709 project_image_fid=360922]

That northern orientation places the development within a stretch of Chevron Island defined by open river aspects and skyline views, while remaining embedded in the suburb’s established village setting.

Chevron Island has increasingly drawn owner-occupiers seeking centrality without the intensity of high-rise beachfront living. Positioned at the geographical centre of the Gold Coast, the island offers direct access to both the beach and key cultural infrastructure while retaining a neighbourhood-scale character.

Connected by bridge to Surfers Paradise, Chevron Island offers walkable access to beaches, riverfront parklands and a revitalised foreshore boulevard animated by walkers and cyclists throughout the day. The Pacific Ocean is only minutes away, reinforcing the suburb’s dual river-and-surf identity.

At the same time, Thomas Drive forms the spine of the island’s village life, delivering cafés, wine bars, casual dining and everyday services within easy reach. Independent grocers, wellness operators and neighbourhood retailers contribute to a community atmosphere that remains distinct from the vertical scale of the beachfront.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=89709 project_image_fid=360915]

In the opposite direction, the Green Bridge links directly to HOTA – Home of the Arts – placing galleries, performance venues and parklands within walking distance. Weekly markets and major exhibitions draw visitors from across the region, while residents return to a quieter residential pocket at day’s end.

Public transport, including nearby bus routes and the G:link light rail corridor along the coastal spine, strengthens connectivity north and south. Griffith University, the Gold Coast University Hospital precinct and established private schools such as The Southport School are all within a short drive.

Ongoing investment across Surfers Paradise, HOTA and the broader Southport corridor has elevated amenity while preserving Chevron Island’s comparatively low-rise residential character. It is this balance, walkable village atmosphere paired with metropolitan-scale infrastructure, that continues to differentiate the suburb from higher-density beachfront precincts.

Boutique comprises just 42 residences, designed to maximise river and skyline outlooks within this tightly held island setting.

Boutique Chevron Island is slated for completion in April 2026, with prices starting from $1,220,000.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=89709]

Draycon Building’s Boutique Chevron Island places 42 residences at the heart of the Gold Coast

Sydney developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/deicorp">Deicorp</a> has secured planning approval for a $300 million residential development in Lindfield, marking the company’s second project on Sydney’s North Shore and its first on the Upper North Shore.

Located on Beaconsfield Parade and designed by DKO Architecture, the state significant development comprises three buildings of up to 10 storeys and will include 399 residences, including 59 affordable homes and 40 adaptable homes.

Residences will range in size from one, two and three bedrooms, with two-bedroom apartments accounting for over 60 per cent of the product make-up. Residents will have access to a broad suite of amenities, including a wellness area, indoor and outdoor recreational spaces, a pool, a gym, a community room and a golf simulator.

In line with Deicorp’s long-standing focus on creating transit-oriented communities, the project is located just 260 metres from the Lindfield Train Station, reinforcing its role in delivering well-connected housing close to established infrastructure, retail and local services.

The inclusion of affordable and adaptable housing supports greater diversity within the local market, while the mix of apartment types responds to demand from downsizers, young professionals and families seeking access to the Upper North Shore.

Deicorp Founder Fouad Deiri OAM said the approval represents an important milestone for both the company and the suburb

“This approval allows us to deliver well-designed homes in a location that is already supported by strong transport and community infrastructure," Deiri said.

"Our focus is on creating places that integrate into their surroundings and provide long-term value for residents, and the broader Lindfield community. Being within walking distance of the station ensures this project supports sustainable growth in the right locations."

Across its portfolio, Deicorp currently has 4,703 apartments under construction, playing a leading role in shaping connected, liveable communities across Sydney.

Its expanding portfolio of Metro-linked developments includes Tallawong Village, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kings-bay-village-five-dock-53-75-queens-road-five-dock-nsw-2046">Kings Bay Village</a> in Five Dock, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/hyde-metropolitan-sydney-133-141-liverpool-street-sydney-nsw-2000">Hyde Metropolitan</a> in Sydney CBD, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/falcon-alexander-crows-nest-8-alexander-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Falcon &amp; Alexander</a> in Crows Nest and Showground Village, Castle Hill.

Deicorp purchased the Beaconsfield Paradise site last year. Construction is scheduled to commence in Q2 of 2026 and will be completed in 2029.

Deicorp expands portfolio to nearly 5,000 apartments with Lindfield project

In a joint venture with The Trump Organization, Australia developer Altus Property Group has announced plans to bring a Trump International Hotel &amp; Tower to the Gold Coast, marking the first Trump-branded project in Australia.

"Trump International Hotel &amp; Tower, Gold Coast is our first official project in Australia and reflects our unwavering commitment to delivering world-class luxury experiences in iconic locations around the world," Eric Trump, Executive Vice President of The Trump Organization, said.

"This development exemplifies the Trump brand’s dedication to quality, sophistication, and unmatched service, and we are thrilled to bring this vision to the vibrant Gold Coast community."

The 91-storey building, which will become the tallest in Australia at 335 metres, will feature a&nbsp;285-room luxury hotel bearing the trademark Trump logo. It will also include 272 luxury residential apartments, a three-level podium with an exclusive Beach Club, and over 3,400 sqm of premium commercial, retail, and dining space, revitalizing the central Surfers Paradise precinct.

“Trump International Hotel &amp; Tower, Gold Coast will be a truly unique offering in the Australian market, bringing the prestige and allure of a world-class luxury brand,"&nbsp;Altus founder and chief executive David Young said.

"Altus Property Group is proud of its track record in delivering landmark developments across Australia, and our expertise ensures this project will be an outstanding success."

Trump Hotel heads for the Gold Coast to become Australia's tallest building

2021 Forecast

A key reason why fundamental problems in the housing market are never solved is because people seek to treat the symptoms rather than the cause.

This is true in business and in life, as much as it is in the housing market. It makes little sense to take medication for high blood pressure if the underlying cause is that you&rsquo;re overweight because you have a bad diet and you don&rsquo;t exercise.

People who hover around the sidelines of the real estate industry, sniping at things they don&rsquo;t like, are highly prone to demanding actions on the symptoms of a perceived problem when they should be addressing the underlying causes of the symptoms.

Treating symptoms, while ignoring causes, has a tendency to make problems worse. Right now, we have spectators to the housing market demanding controls on landlords because rents are rising.

Other spectators want draconian measures from regulatory authorities because prices are rising, bringing howls of outrage about housing affordability.

In both cases, their targets are investors, always a popular choice as scapegoats when there&rsquo;s growth in housing markets and it&rsquo;s characterised in media as a crisis.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=94542]

The natural impulse of the sideline whingers is to demand a crackdown aimed at investors, because they&rsquo;re always seen as the villains.

The reality for the issue of rapidly rising rents is that we need to be encouraging investors, not attacking them.

The symptoms of the problem are rising rents, but the cause is a chronic shortage of rental properties.

In my four decades of researching and writing about housing markets, I&rsquo;ve never seen vacancies so low in so many places.

Anyone genuine in their concerns (rather than having a whinge or grandstanding for political reasons) should be asking why we have such a shortage and how we can fix that fundamental problem.

Rental control is a quick fix medicine to treat the symptoms, while ignoring the underlying market health issues. It will make the problem worse by exacerbating the fundamental problem, which is that Australians have been massively discouraged from becoming investors.

Rental vacancies are a function of the activity of property investors. When people buy dwellings and make them available for rental in large numbers, there are ample properties for everyone who wants or needs to be a tenant, and rents are likely to be stable.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=600]

But investors have been largely absent from the market in recent years. There has been a growing raft of disincentives to property investment over the past five or six years &ndash; including a series of negative measures by APRA, negative changes to depreciation rules and menacing political rhetoric at the last two federal elections, notably from the ALP which has been intent on scrapping negative gearing and increasing capital gains tax.

We&rsquo;ve also had state governments discouraging investors by hitting them with new taxes, fees and charges. The impact of all those different milestone events since 2015 has been a profound discouragement to investment. Some sections of media have characterised property investment as something akin to a criminal activity, abetted by politicians who have claimed the average investor is a rich greedy bastard who owns 15 or 20 properties and is ripping off the system &ndash; a blatant lie (the official data shows 75% of investors have average incomes and own only one or two properties) but lapped up by a careless media.

The short-term consequences include a rental shortage crisis and the long-term outcomes include fewer Australians who will be self-funded in retirement and will need to be supported in growing numbers by taxpayers. If governments respond to the twits on the sidelines and enforce controls on rental levels, rather than allow market forces to set them, that will be yet another disincentive to investors &ndash; and the problem will get worse.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=100322]

Limiting how much a tenant has to pay in rent is worthless if the prospective tenant can&rsquo;t find a vacant property at any price. That&rsquo;s the reality at the moment. There are so few vacant properties that there are dozens of applicants for every listing and people who desperately need a home keep missing out. Rents are rising because people are offering more than the asking rent in an effort to out-bid their competitors, not because landlords are asking extortionate rents.

And, as an aside, increasingly businesses can&rsquo;t fill job vacancies because willing applicants can&rsquo;t find anywhere to live. The only answer to this problem is to increase the supply of rental properties. And that means introducing measures that encourage property investors.

That will elicit further howls of indignation from the chattering economists and other sideline snipers, but it&rsquo;s the only way to fix this problem.

Rental control is a quick fix medicine to treat the symptoms, It will make the problem worse by exacerbating the fundamental problem, which is that Australians have been massively discouraged from becoming investors

terryryder

Why is there a housing shortage and why will government controls make it worse? Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

EXPERT INSIGHT

Price growth in the early part of 2021 has been beyond impressive in many locations across Australia - it&rsquo;s been exponential.

Every three months, Hotspotting analyses sales activity and prices for every suburb and town in the nation, for the quarterly editions of The Price Predictor Index.

In updating the median prices for each location, it&rsquo;s impossible to avoid the conclusion that something extraordinary has been happening in many of our property markets.

The change in median prices in just three months has been, in many cases, mind-boggling. At Bondi Beach in Sydney, the median house price three months ago was $2,820,000. Now it&rsquo;s $3,100,000. That&rsquo;s an increase of $280,000 in just three months.

At Noosa Heads in Queensland, the median house price has risen from $1,150,000 to $1,400,000, an increase of $250,000 - 22% - in three months. And at Byron Bay, the median house price has gone from $1,835,000 to $2,220,000. 
 
It&rsquo;s happening also in some of the nation&rsquo;s apartment markets. In Kogarah in Sydney, the median unit price has risen from $685,000 to $785,000, a rise 15% in three months, while the median unit price in Rose Bay has increased $125,000, St Ives is up $100,000 and Lindfield $125,000 in that time frame.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6201 project_image_fid=89013]

Here are some Sydney examples of median price rises over the past 3 months:

<ul>
	<li>Lindfield, houses up from $2,750,000 to $3,120,000, units up from $1,200,000 to $1,325,000.</li>
	<li>Bronte, houses up from $3,400,000 to $3,890,000.</li>
	<li>Cremorne, houses from $2,800,000 to $3,000,000, units from $1,125,000 to $1,170,000.</li>
	<li>Croydon, houses from $1,570,000 to $1,770,000.</li>
	<li>Kogarah, houses from $1,305,000 to $1,405,000, units from $685,000 to $785,000.</li>
	<li>Fairlight, units from $1,425,000 to $1,560,000.</li>
	<li>Freshwater, houses from $2,480,000 to $2,660,000, units from $890,000 to $940,000.</li>
	<li>Kensington, houses from $2,445,000 to $2,680,000.</li>
	<li>Granville, houses from $730,000 to $805,000.</li>
	<li>Coogee, houses from $2,900,000 to $3,125,000.</li>
	<li>Kirrawee, units from $690,000 to $740,000.</li>
	<li>Jannali, units from $665,000 to $730,000.</li>
	<li>Canley Vale, houses from $810,000 to $880,000.</li>
	<li>Collaroy, houses from $2,400,000 to $2,580,000, units from $875,000 to $905,000.</li>
	<li>Naremburn, houses from $2,280,000 to $2,620,000.</li>
	<li>North Sydney, units from $945,000 to $1,025,000.</li>
	<li>Rose Bay, houses from $3,810,000 to $3,960,000, units from $1,475,000 to $1,600,000.</li>
	<li>Woolloomooloo, units from $935,000 to $1,280,000.</li>
	<li>Seaforth, houses from $2,690,000 to $2,895,000.</li>
	<li>St Ives, houses from $2,040,000 to $2,175,000, units from $1,020,000 to $1,120,000.</li>
</ul>

Examples of median price rises in Regional Queensland include these:

<ul>
	<li>Minyama, houses up from $1,315,000 to $1,400,000.</li>
	<li>Mudjimba, houses from $770,000 to $845,000, units from $445,000 to $485,000.</li>
	<li>Noosa Heads, houses from $1,150,000 to $1,400,000, units from $905,000 to $960,000.</li>
	<li>Maleny, houses from $675,000 to $720,000.</li>
	<li>Mermaid Beach, houses from $1,350,000 to $1,440,000, units from $440,000 to $475,000.</li>
	<li>Burleigh Waters, houses from $820,000 to $870,000, units from $415,000 to $465,000.</li>
	<li>Palm Cove Cairns, houses from $670,000 to $745,000, units from $265,000 to $310,000.</li>
</ul>

[smartcode_project:default project_id=22057 project_image_fid=150842]

And examples from Regional NSW include these:

<ul>
	<li>Wentworth Falls, houses up from $675,000 to $770,000.</li>
	<li>Byron Bay, houses from $1,835,000 to $2,220,000.</li>
	<li>Gerringong, houses from $890,000 to $995,000.</li>
	<li>Kiama, houses from $980,000 to $1,050,000, units from $630,000 to $680,000.</li>
	<li>Kingscliff, houses from $1,165,000 to $1,240,000 and units from $620,000 to $690,000.</li>
	<li>Merimbula, houses from $625,000 to $720,000.</li>
	<li>Yamba, houses from $590,000 to $670,000, units from $450,000 to $510,000.</li>
	<li>Albury, houses from $550,000 to $605,000.</li>
	<li>Moss Vale, houses from $690,000 to $740,000.</li>
</ul>

There are thousands of other similar scenarios from the various markets across Australia.

The change in median prices in just three months has been, in many cases, mind-boggling across Sydney

Property price growth has been beyond impressive across Sydney: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

EXPERT INSIGHT

Make no mistake, this is a big spending budget.

The policy approach was appropriate highlighted by worthy social programs. However, a better balance between short term tax initiatives and genuine tax reform would have been a more effective approach.

New stimulus initiatives, headlined by the surprise extension to the instant asset write-offs for businesses, are worth 4.1 per cent of GDP over four years &ndash; about eight times the pace of the pre-election budget in 2019.

For perspective, the government&rsquo;s stimulus spending in last year&rsquo;s budget following the biggest economic shock since the 1930s was a little higher at 5.5 per cent of GDP, but not materially so.

The disruption from COVID and this associated stimulus response is forecast to see net debt lift from 19.2% of GDP in 2018/19 to 34.2% in 2021/22 and 40.9% in 2024/25.

Despite this sharp increase in debt the cost of servicing the debt is forecast to hold at a modest 0.7% of GDP due to the low interest rate environment.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=3233 project_image_fid=160016]

An early use of policies to reduce debt would have been at the expense of allowing the economy to operate at its potential.

As with other countries debt ratios are unlikely to return to pre COVID levels.

Any return to sustained full employment would see significant budget repair although the public sector is still likely to cycle around much higher debt ratios than we saw before the advent of COVID.

Despite employment levels now being above pre-COVID-19 levels and GDP expected to boom this year, the government is clearly going all in to &ldquo;secure the recovery&rdquo; and drive the unemployment rate down faster.

This drive for growth strategy, along with appropriate commitments to additional services, sees fiscal and monetary policy firmly working together to reach full employment.

The government defines full employment as 4.5 per cent, although that level is not forecast to be reached until mid-2024. Westpac &ndash; and I believe the Reserve Bank &ndash; sees it as 4 per cent or even a little lower.

BILL EVANS&nbsp;is the Chief Economist at Westpac

The policy approach was appropriate highlighted by worthy social programs, however, a better balance between short term tax initiatives and genuine tax reform would have been a more effective approach

bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

Federal Budget 2021: Genuine tax reform stuck in the too-hard basket: Bill Evans

<html><body>The Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has warned that "history suggests that shifts in population growth can have large effects on the housing market."

It was his bluntest warning yet about the dangers of the current house price boom across most of the country.

The RBA boss affirmed the financial regulators were "watching carefully" to see if home lending restrictions were necessary while giving a speech at the Australian Financial Review's Business Summit.

"There are many moving parts at present," he noted.

"Record low interest rates; a shift in preferences towards houses and away from apartments; strong demand for housing outside our largest cities; large government incentives for first-home buyers and home builders; and the slowest population growth in a century," he observed.

"Time will tell as to how these various factors ultimately balance out, but history suggests that shifts in population growth can have large effects on the housing market."

"At its recent meetings, the board has discussed developments in the housing market, including the rising housing prices across most of the country.

"Looser standards would increase medium-term risks and add to the upward pressure on prices, so would be of concern," he advised.

Lowe said he recognised that low interest rates were one of the factors contributing to higher housing prices "and that high and rising housing prices raise concerns for many people."

"I would like to reiterate that the RBA does not target housing prices, nor would it make sense to do so. 

"I recognise that low interest rates are one of the factors contributing to higher housing prices and that high and rising housing prices raise concerns for many people. 

"There are various tools, other than higher interest rates, to address these concerns, leaving monetary policy to maintain its strong focus on the recovery in the economy, jobs and wages," he noted.</body></html>

The RBA governor Philip Lowe noted "history suggests that shifts in population growth can have large effects on the housing market."

jchancellor

RBA boss Dr Philip Lowe warns on low population growth impact on housing

<html><body>
EXPERT INSIGHT

We have lifted our growth forecast for 2021 from 4% to 4.5%; the key will remain the household sector, where accumulated savings; ongoing reopening; vaccines and the boom in the housing market are likely to offset the major headwinds of reduced government support and zero net immigration.

Westpac has lifted its GDP growth forecast in 2021 from 4% to 4.5%, with the 2022 forecast holding at 3%.

The December quarter national accounts provided rich evidence of the key dynamics that will emerge as the recovery continues.

They showed continued evidence of Australia’s bounce back from the pandemic induced recession in the first half of 2020.

Growth in GDP printed at 3.1%qtr, following the 3.4% increase in the September quarter. Annual growth is now -1.1% for 2020, compared to market expectations of -2% only a week earlier.

The key components of growth – household consumption; business investment and dwelling construction all surprised on the upside.

Our forecasts for GDP growth anticipate solid ongoing momentum in those components in 2021.

Household consumption lifted by 4.3% in the December quarter 2020, significantly boosted by the reopening of Victoria where spending increased by 10.4%. Spending in the rest of Australia rose by 2.3%. This result provides compelling evidence of the “reopening” effect with Victoria contributing around 2ppts to the growth rate in household spending.
</body></html>

bevans

Boom in housing market likely to offset major economic headwinds: Westpac's Bill Evans

<html><body>Australian home prices are likely to rise another 5% to 10% this year and next, according to Shane Oliver at AMP Capital.

"Prices were being boosted by record low mortgage rates, government home buyer incentives and the recovery in the jobs market.

"But the stop to immigration and weak rental markets will likely weigh on inner city areas and units in Melbourne and Sydney. 

"Outer suburbs, houses, smaller cities and regional areas will see relatively stronger gains in 2021," he forecast.

His comments came after housing finance rose to a new record; and house prices rose at their fastest pace in nearly 18 years. 

"While home building approvals fell sharply this reflects volatility driven by the HomeBuilder incentive scheme with dwelling construction still on track for strong growth.

"There was some other good news too with the share of housing and small business loans in payment deferrals collapsing further to just 1.8% and 1% respectively in January," he added.</body></html>

The stop to immigration and weak rental markets will likely weigh on inner city areas and units in Melbourne and Sydney

Weak rental markets will weigh on inner city units in Melbourne and Sydney: Shane Oliver

<html><body>
Amid ongoing uncertainty in the global markets due to COVID-19 it remains low rates as usual for the RBA, who kept the official cash rate at 0.10 percent for another month.

Their recently released chart pack, which details figures from the world economy to Australia's financial figures, yielded interesting information about the Australian property situation

Private residential building approvals has continued to soar, up once again in February as seen below.

<img alt="" height="339" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/rba_chart_1.jpg" width="407">

This trend continues to be driven by growth in the detached housing sector which can be attributed to the HomeBuilder grant among other government initiatives

<img alt="" height="357" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/rba_chart_2.jpg" width="396">

There continues to be a gap between household consumption and disposable income.

A household's disposable income hadn't been higher than its consumption since 2014.

This is in sharp contrast to the current Covid-19 effected situation.

Housing price growth can be seen to have come out of a dip with APM recording the smallest falls as seen below. 

<img alt="" height="313" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/rba_chart_3.jpg" width="401">

Residex and CoreLogic data showed that for the year to February home price growth near zeroed out.

Housing loan commitments continue to soar to new record highs, levels well beyond the 2015 and 2017 highs.

<img alt="" height="353" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/rba_chart_4.jpg" width="393">

This trend is similarly driven by government initiatives with owner-occupiers rocking this trend up to $20 billion in commitments.

Investor's have also been investing further although clearly not to a similar level as many lack incentive in this current low supply, high demand market.
</body></html>

Data showed that for the year to February home price growth near zeroed out, however a growth spike seems to be on the horizon

jordan_55689

House prices hold steady and ready for turnaround: RBA 

<html><body>
The HomeBuilder Grant together with increased buyer confidence, record levels of savings and affordable land prices has encouraged an optimistic 2021 in Victoria, according to Red23’s managing director Terry Portelli.

Price growth remains at a minimal level, with the median land price stable at $322,000, increasing 0.31% during the last quarter of 2020 however down 0.62% year on year.

Median land price increases were seen across 5 of the 7 metro growth area municipalities as well as Greater Geelong with above 3% increases witnessed in Casey, Whittlesea, Greater Geelong and Mitchell.

Casey has continued to be the price leader, pushing their median land price over $360,000.

<img alt="" height="736" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/median_land_prices_vic_2021.jpg" width="1226">

Uncertainty arising from the Covid-19 pandemic and employment security meant the Victorian new homes sector suffered a push back in 2020, but adjusted by developing online selling environments, Portelli advised. 

“The second half of 2020 exceeded expectations due to the HomeBuilder Grant albeit impacted by limited international travel, population growth and migration,” he said, noting in metro Melbourne, nearly 15,000 land sales were made in 2020, doubling that of 2019.

The largest increases by municipality were Whittlesea (+129%), Melton (+123%) and Mitchell (+82%) while all other municipalities also increased by between 21% to 60%.

Red23 pointed out the HomeBuilder Grant proved successful in driving demand for new homes, with the Treasury figures showing Victoria accounted for 21,959 of the 75,000 applications.

“Titled lots available are now diminishing,” he advised.

Home buyers can now spend up to $850,000 on a home and receive the $15,000 HomeBuilder Grant when purchasing between January 1 and March 31, 2021 on condition that their income does not exceed $125,000 as an individual, or $200,000 as a couple.

“Land prices remain at their most affordable since early 2018.

“We have seen a reduction in the number of incentives and rebates being offered by developers,” he noted.

<h2>Recently listed properties in Melbourne:</h2>

[smartcode_project:default project_id=9023]

[smartcode_project:default project_id=22803]

[smartcode_project:default project_id=22700]
</body></html>

Median land price increases were seen across 5 of the 7 metro growth area municipalities as well as Greater Geelong

Why are land prices creating an optimistic 2021 Victorian market?

<html><body>
Here’s how you spot a real estate charlatan, someone who likes to present themselves as a real estate expert but who in reality knows nothing worth hearing …

- They speak of Australia as a single property market; and/or

- They attribute price growth to “record low interest rates”

Mostly these pretenders are economists. I would remind you of a much-quoted definition of an economist: Someone who can tell you tomorrow why their predictions yesterday didn’t come true today.

We have learnt over the years, but particularly in 2020, that the bigger the name and the media profile, the worse they are at analysing residential real estate and forecasting outcomes.

Cast your minds back to the predictions in March/April 2020 from senior economists employed by the major banks, big institutions like AMP and even those working for specialist real estate research entities. And then again later in the year when the so-called September Cliff was proclaimed an impending disaster.

There was a chorus of predictions of a long recession, with double-digit unemployment and real estate values collapsing. How spectacularly wrong they were. Only the specialist property analysts got it right.

But the appalling track record of economists with real estate analysis stretches back years and includes the alarmist predictions about property prices in the wake of the GFC – also proven to be spectacularly wrong. 

It’s remarkable that media continues to give these charlatans airplay. Credibility, it seems, is optional, so long as you have “economist” in your title.

So the nation’s gaggle of chattering economists has been compelled to admit they got it wrong in 2020 and most of them are now forecasting big price growth this year. You will note that what they are predicting is already happening, highlighting another characteristic of this bloated and overblown profession: predicting the recent past.

And how do they explain the gathering boom? Record low interest rates!

God help us. The lack of expertise among the talking heads who clutter up the airways with their simplistic analysis is quite breathtaking.

As we all know, we’ve had ultra-low interest rates for years. Very little has changed in that regard to explain the recent uplift in sales activity. When Sydney and Melbourne were having their real estate boom from 2013 to 2017-ish, economists generally explained the price rises with “record low interest rates”. They had no response to the obvious question at the time: how come prices in Perth and Darwin were falling, while Canberra, Brisbane and Adelaide were stagnating?

The “low interest rates = property boom” theory also fails to explain why the last two genuine nationwide property booms, in the late 1980s and in the early years of this century, both occurred during periods of very high and rising interest rates.

My view, strongly, is that record low interest rates do not explain what’s happening in real estate across most of Australia.

The growth is being fueled by multiple factors, including …

- A stronger-than-expected economy

- Lower-than-predicted unemployment

- State and federal stimulus measures

- The build-up of savings during the pandemic period

- People in lockdown reviewing their life choices

- Ultra-low vacancies, putting upward pressures on rents and prices

- Pent-up demand, leading to rising sales activity

- Low listings levels, relative to rising buyer demand

- The Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle trend, which is hugely influential

- Increased spending on major new infrastructure

- The revival of the resources sector

- The return of ex-pat Australians in large numbers

- The belated entry of investors to compete with owner-occupiers

-Perceptions about the safety and solidity of bricks &amp; mortar in times of uncertainty

-The growing prevalence of e-commerce and its impact on industrial property, which has repercussions for residential demand

- Access to low-cost finance

And you’ll notice that I mention low interest rates as just one of 16 different factors – and I mention it last and definitely least.

Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au

ryder@hotspotting.com.au

twitter.com/hotspotting
</body></html>

The nation’s gaggle of chattering economists has been compelled to admit they got it wrong in 2020

Economists got real estate wrong in 2020: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

<html><body>
After a stronger than expected housing turnaround, NAB are now forecasting dwelling values to rise by an average of eight per cent nationally across 2021, with a view that 2022 will also see strong gains.

The revision comes after the turnaround in the housing markets, pared with low interest rates, the government's HomeBuilder grants and stamp duty concessions on newly built properties.

"The housing market has fared significantly better than expected over the past year, despite significant headwinds from slower population growth and a weaker labour market," the NAB report read.

"Lower interest rates and household income support from the Federal Government have been a key support amidst the challenges of the pandemic.

"While the impact of lower rates is broad-based, there are some key dynamics underlying our forecast."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=90553]

NAB expect the smaller capitals to continue to outpace Sydney and Melbourne, but the two biggest capital city markets have closed the gap from NAB's previous forecasts.

In the Q2 update in mid-2019, NAB were forecasting a -4.3 per cent average decline across the country, with Melbourne (-7.3 per cent) and Sydney (-4.7 per cent), driving the losses.

In Q3, following a positive response to COVID-19, NAB flipped their forecast, predicting five per cent gains nationally over 2021 and Melbourne (+3.6 per cent) and Sydney (+4.4 per cent), going full circle.

Now NAB expect nearly eight per cent gains average, with Sydney and Melbourne not far behind other capital city markets.

<img alt="" height="791" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/nab_q4_forecast.jpg" width="1200">

They expect the best performer to be Brisbane, where there are 10.1 per cent gains forecast for 2021 and 6.3 per cent for 2022.

Adelaide and Hobart are predicted to see the strongest gains over 2022, up 7.4 per cent after 8.9 per cent and 9.7 per cent gains over 2021.

Sentiment has been on the turn for a number of months and the NAB Residential Property Index ended 2020 at a survey high +45 points. Confidence levels returned to levels last seen before COVID in late-2019 as expectations lifted sharply for house price growth across the country.

<img alt="" height="905" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/nab_sentiment_q4.jpg" width="1200">

NAB economist Alan Astor says first home buyer demand remains very strong in new and established housing markets and is likely being supported by historically low interest rates and government support such as the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme and HomeBuilder.

"The brief pullback in house prices earlier in the year may have also helped sentiment among these buyers."
</body></html>

The revision comes after a stronger than expected housing market, pared with the low interest rates, the government's HomeBuilder grants and stamp duty concessions on new properties.



2021 Forecast

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

2021 Forecast

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News