A long-stalled Mermaid Beach development site opposite Pacific Fair, previously earmarked for a twin-tower project, is set for a fresh development push with plans for a major mixed-use residential tower.&nbsp;

Billionaire garbo Ian Malouf's development company, REMI Residences, is proposing Project Elegance, a 44-storey tower with over 270 residential apartments and 88 short-term accomodation units at&nbsp;2065 Gold Coast Highway, Mermaid Beach, on the corner of Mermaid Avenue.

Malouf paid $23.76 million for the 3,783 sqm site in 2022, six years after it traded for $34.1 million when it was bought by Hubei United Investment Group.

 
<img alt="First Look: REMI Developments plans major mixed-use tower with 360 apartments at stalled Mermaid Beach site" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" data-widget="image" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Mermaid%20Beach%20da%20podium.png?VersionId=yRYSSPItvCA5ZeQ49LlwkQYVn7OhEqIC" /><img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" draggable="true" height="15" role="presentation" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAPABAP///wAAACH5BAEKAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAICRAEAOw==" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" />

&nbsp;

The design statement by DKO says Project Elegance "represents a holistic response to its coastal and urban context. It draws upon site, climate, and landscape to create a composed architectural outcome that prioritises occupant experience, public interface, and long-term viability via vibrant and active uses."

They say the subject site&nbsp;occupies a distinctive island parcel with three street frontages and prominent visual exposure to passing visitors.

"This unique position allows the development to form a panoramic dialogue with water and city, setting the foundation for a climate-responsive, site-specific architectural expression.&nbsp;The podium base, inspired by the region’s sandstone headlands and coastal setting, and adopts a sculpted and grounded character that provides a stable counterpoint to the slender tower above."

&nbsp;

<img alt="First Look: REMI Developments plans major mixed-use tower with 360 apartments at stalled Mermaid Beach site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="4f088e10-6493-49d4-83cd-10fc039318ac" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Mermaid%20Beach%20da%20tower.png?VersionId=Sbglj0tNBqyvY5V_DlVH.bvjXi8kBbfl" />

Residents and guests would have access to multiple communal recreation levels. Plans include a shared recreation deck on level six, with a pool and three padel courts. There will be a residential-only pool on level seven, and an upper-level communal space only accessible by those buyers towards the top of the tower.

&nbsp;

Ground-floor commercial spaces are proposed to operate between 5am and midnight, contributing to an activated street frontage along the busy Gold Coast Highway corridor.

The site sits within the High Density Residential zone and a Light Rail Urban Renewal Area, where planning policy encourages higher-density development close to transport infrastructure and services. The planning report states the project aims to “ensure the efficient reuse of this centrally located property” and support the transformation of inner-city areas into “more vibrant, compact, interesting, connected and active” precincts.

&nbsp;

The proposal marks the latest attempt to unlock the high-profile parcel, which previously carried approval for the “Elegance” twin-tower development, a project that included more than 500 apartments but ultimately stalled after sales activity ceased in 2019.

REMI Developments has been increasingly active in the Gold Coast property market, with the Malouf-led group positioning itself around premium residential and lifestyle-focused projects as the region continues to attract both interstate buyers and international interest.

Malouf is one of Australia's most impressive entrepreneurs, having sold his waste business fore more than $500 million, having started only with a small truck at 18 years old.

Joel Robinson

First Look: Billionaire Ian Malouf plans Mermaid Beach tower

A State Significant Development proposal from Ecove Group could see two high-rise residential towers developed above an ALDI-anchored retail podium in Gordon.

The 28-storey towers, dubbed Eight 10, would become the tallest in the sleepy Upper North Shore suburb, which has been stirred by changes to the Low to Mid-Rise Housing Policy aimed at triggering greater density around transport hubs.

Ecove Group’s plans for 810 Pacific Highway, a 2,357 sqm site around 400 metres from Gordon railway station, include 180 apartments, 39 of which would be dedicated as affordable housing.

Architecture firm PBD said in its Design Report the site "presents an exciting opportunity to positively contributes to the surrounding context, enhances the overall urban experience."

<img alt="First Look: Ecove lodges State Significant Development plans for dual-tower “Eight 10” project at 810 Pacific Highway, Gordon" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e50141fa-fb0b-44b3-bf9b-c6d87b993c3b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Eight%2010%20podium.png?VersionId=YTgQPBxNnmQwr6x2AJSpVZ1COqa.9oLQ" />

The site previously received approval for a development comprising 56 apartments above retail in 2018.

PBD noted in its report that the planning&nbsp;context for the site has "evolved significantly since the original consent was issued."

In April 2024, the Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure (DPHI) identified the site as being located within a Transport Oriented Development (TOD) precinct. In parallel, Ku-ring-gai Council progressed a preferred planning framework for Gordon Town Centre, including proposed amendments to the Ku-ring-gai Local Environmental Plan 2015 (KLEP 2015).

<img alt="First Look: Ecove lodges State Significant Development plans for dual-tower “Eight 10” project at 810 Pacific Highway, Gordon" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="cf65fb26-a163-41ea-a4d3-8ddbeabd67e4" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Eight%2010%20MAP.png?VersionId=vrQJzXSg3xRH.APBmtth5mA2adPmUPjc" />

PBD said the proposed development "responds to the amended KLEP 2015 and, in addition, seeks to utilise the floor space ratio and height incentives available under Chapter 2, Part 2, Division 1 of the State Environmental Planning Policy (Housing) 2021."

Late last year the first project in Gordon through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority was approved. That was for 106 apartments across two connected seven to eight-storey buildings.

Ecove plans 28-storey apartment towers in Gordon

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/graya">Graya</a> has set its sights on one of Brisbane’s scarce remaining riverfront development opportunities.

They have spent $17 million on an 810 sqm site across 16-18 Sandford Street, where it is planning SILK, a 15-storey apartment tower with just 22 apartments.

Planning documents outline a single tower designed to take advantage of the site’s northerly outlook toward the river and Brisbane CBD.

There will be eight two-bedrooms and 14 three-bedroom apartments on offer, each either half- or full-floor.

<img alt="Graya" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="059e1aa4-695c-4556-bafa-e8b5970c06f5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-03-12%20at%203.07.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=tEqwv_m8HYhrXSCStOMFHvGZZ5WgKfEx" />

&nbsp;

According to the Town Planning Assessment, the proposal "showcases a high quality architectural and landscape design outcome that is enhanced by the amenity of the Brisbane River… and provides a subtropical design response that celebrates Brisbane’s climate and lifestyle.”

Ground level includes landscaped communal areas facing the river alongside a gym and outdoor garden space, while the rooftop terrace will feature multiple leisure amenities like swimming pools,&nbsp;dining and barbecue facilities, as well as outdoor relaxation and yoga spaces.

<img alt="Graya" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="93982dbb-9f27-409b-a319-bd6f458f9ea7" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-03-12%20at%203.09.05%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=gCaaW82pEBxMvXkVkEm4TC_o7_UXA82p" />

Architecturally, the tower form draws inspiration from the movement of water along the river edge. Design documentation describes the building as “a form sculpted by flow, shaped by shifting water,” with curved forms, varied materiality, and sculptural elements used to soften the building’s visual bulk. Sandstone, an iconic material throughout St Lucia, is reinterpreted through a mix of refined and split-face textures across the façade.

The Sandford Street frontage is intended to present an articulated façade featuring vertical landscaping and sculptural architectural elements, helping the tower integrate with the evolving high-density character of the riverfront strip while maintaining visual interest from both the street and river corridor.

Graya has continued to expands its footprint across South East Queensland, with projects under construction across both Brisbane and the Gold Coast.

GRAYA unveils plans for SILK in St Lucia

Less than five months after submitting plans to redevelop the former Cadbury office on St Kilda Road into a luxury apartment tower, development giant <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/dexus-property-group">Dexus</a>&nbsp;has been given ministerial approval to push on with the project.

Apartments.com.au <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/vic/first-look-dexus-joins-st-kilda-road-apartment-ranks-with-gateway-tower-proposal">revealed the plans in October last year</a>.

The approved project will see the 19-storey office building at 636 St Kilda Road replaced with a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bates-smart">Bates Smart</a>-designed tower delivering more than 400 new apartments at the prominent intersection of St Kilda Road and Queens Road.&nbsp;

The design responds to the site’s gateway position at St Kilda Junction, with Bates Smart describing the tower as a “refined and sculptural built form that mediates between the scale of St Kilda Road and Queens Road,” reinforcing a civic presence at the key intersection.&nbsp;

<img alt="First look: Dexus joins St Kilda Road apartment ranks with gateway tower proposal" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-10-06%20at%2012.52.37%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=Tq3yyOWe0e0klvy5j4TIjiZT7yd3f1Xk" />

The development will comprise 402 apartments, including 40 studios, 87 one-bedroom, 203 two-bedroom, and 66 three-bedroom residences, alongside six penthouses. The project will also incorporate active frontages, new pedestrian through-links and a landscape strategy designed to integrate with the boulevard character of St Kilda Road.&nbsp;

Public realm improvements form part of the approved scheme, including a 138 square metre linear park, extensive landscaping and approximately 188 metres of active street frontage intended to improve permeability and safety at ground level. Four basement levels will provide 449 car spaces and 120 bicycle spaces.&nbsp;

The project includes a $9.6 million contribution to the Social Housing Growth Fund, equivalent to three per cent of the project’s estimated development cost, supporting broader affordable housing initiatives across Victoria.&nbsp;

<img alt="First look: Dexus joins St Kilda Road apartment ranks with gateway tower proposal" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/St%20kilda%20rd%20site.png?VersionId=m_ZioKYhwkvekE3ZUF6y7bz.5_5yFPnZ" />

Wholesale Australian Property Fund (DWAPF) Fund Manager Chris Davitt said the residences are intended to appeal to a broad mix of buyers seeking proximity to the CBD and surrounding amenities.

“We’re excited about the potential of the project to contribute new residential supply to one of Melbourne’s most sought-after areas,” Davitt previously said. “The landmark site at 636 St Kilda Road is at the gateway to Melbourne’s CBD, offering sweeping views and exceptional connectivity.”&nbsp;

The site’s three street frontages, St Kilda Road, Queens Road and Queens Lane, allow for generous setbacks and a flexible built form, while its proximity to the ANZAC Station tram-rail interchange and the St Kilda Road cycling corridor positions it within one of Melbourne’s most connected inner-city precincts.&nbsp;

St Kilda Road has become one of Melbourne’s most active apartment corridors in recent years, with projects such as Victoriana, The Muse and St Boulevard already completed overlooking Albert Park Lake, while Gamuda Land continues construction on Fareham and several other developments are planned nearby.&nbsp;

Dexus secures ministerial approval for St Kilda Road apartment tower

Just a few months after launching to the market,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gold-partners-australia">Gold Partners Australia</a>&nbsp;has sold 75 per cent of the apartments at&nbsp;Harmony on Broadbeach, its debut Gold Coast apartment development.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/harmony-on-broadbeach-2797-gold-coast-highway-broadbeach-qld-4218">Harmony on Broadbeach</a>, which will rise 33 storeys on the corner of First Avenue and the Gold Coast Highway about 400 metres from the beach, will deliver a collection of two and three-bedroom apartments designed to appeal to a mix of local owner-occupiers, interstate buyers, and investors seeking newer stock in the tightly held Broadbeach market.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/dbi">DBI Architects</a>, Harmony will home just over 100 apartments, with a typical floorplate limited to four apartments per level. The configuration allows for larger layouts and greater privacy compared to many higher-density coastal towers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113098 project_image_fid=355608]

The residences comprise generous two and three-bedroom apartments with open-plan living areas, large balconies and floor-to-ceiling glazing designed to maximise natural light and capture views across the ocean, hinterland and Broadbeach skyline. Interiors feature natural stone benchtops, engineered timber flooring and Miele appliances, with finishes intended to reflect the coastal character of the surrounding area.&nbsp;

Amenities are centred on a dedicated wellness offering, including a 20-metre swimming pool, spa, sauna, gymnasium and yoga lawn, alongside communal lounges, private dining areas and outdoor barbecue spaces for residents. The building will also include a hospitality venue at street level, activating the ground plane along the Gold Coast Highway.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113098 project_image_fid=355611]

Olympus Property Group is handling sales for the development. Director Deanna Lockett said the project has resonated with a wide buyer pool drawn to the combination of location and pricing.

“There’s been nothing new come to the market in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/broadbeach-qld-4218">Broadbeach</a> at this price point for nearly a year,” Lockett said. “It hits the sweet spot of affordability, good sized apartments, in a great location.”&nbsp;

Broadbeach remains one of the Gold Coast’s most established lifestyle precincts, with residents within walking distance of the beach, dining along Surf Parade, Pacific Fair Shopping Centre, and the Gold Coast Convention and Exhibition Centre. The suburb has seen limited new apartment supply over the past year, contributing to strong early demand for Harmony.&nbsp;

Construction is due to commence in Q2 2026, with completion targeted for late 2028, as Gold Partners Australia expands into the Gold Coast market alongside its established pipeline in New South Wales.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=113098]

Harmony on Broadbeach races to 75 per cent sold as Gold Partners Australia target construction commencement

2021 Forecast

A key reason why fundamental problems in the housing market are never solved is because people seek to treat the symptoms rather than the cause.

This is true in business and in life, as much as it is in the housing market. It makes little sense to take medication for high blood pressure if the underlying cause is that you&rsquo;re overweight because you have a bad diet and you don&rsquo;t exercise.

People who hover around the sidelines of the real estate industry, sniping at things they don&rsquo;t like, are highly prone to demanding actions on the symptoms of a perceived problem when they should be addressing the underlying causes of the symptoms.

Treating symptoms, while ignoring causes, has a tendency to make problems worse. Right now, we have spectators to the housing market demanding controls on landlords because rents are rising.

Other spectators want draconian measures from regulatory authorities because prices are rising, bringing howls of outrage about housing affordability.

In both cases, their targets are investors, always a popular choice as scapegoats when there&rsquo;s growth in housing markets and it&rsquo;s characterised in media as a crisis.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=94542]

The natural impulse of the sideline whingers is to demand a crackdown aimed at investors, because they&rsquo;re always seen as the villains.

The reality for the issue of rapidly rising rents is that we need to be encouraging investors, not attacking them.

The symptoms of the problem are rising rents, but the cause is a chronic shortage of rental properties.

In my four decades of researching and writing about housing markets, I&rsquo;ve never seen vacancies so low in so many places.

Anyone genuine in their concerns (rather than having a whinge or grandstanding for political reasons) should be asking why we have such a shortage and how we can fix that fundamental problem.

Rental control is a quick fix medicine to treat the symptoms, while ignoring the underlying market health issues. It will make the problem worse by exacerbating the fundamental problem, which is that Australians have been massively discouraged from becoming investors.

Rental vacancies are a function of the activity of property investors. When people buy dwellings and make them available for rental in large numbers, there are ample properties for everyone who wants or needs to be a tenant, and rents are likely to be stable.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=600]

But investors have been largely absent from the market in recent years. There has been a growing raft of disincentives to property investment over the past five or six years &ndash; including a series of negative measures by APRA, negative changes to depreciation rules and menacing political rhetoric at the last two federal elections, notably from the ALP which has been intent on scrapping negative gearing and increasing capital gains tax.

We&rsquo;ve also had state governments discouraging investors by hitting them with new taxes, fees and charges. The impact of all those different milestone events since 2015 has been a profound discouragement to investment. Some sections of media have characterised property investment as something akin to a criminal activity, abetted by politicians who have claimed the average investor is a rich greedy bastard who owns 15 or 20 properties and is ripping off the system &ndash; a blatant lie (the official data shows 75% of investors have average incomes and own only one or two properties) but lapped up by a careless media.

The short-term consequences include a rental shortage crisis and the long-term outcomes include fewer Australians who will be self-funded in retirement and will need to be supported in growing numbers by taxpayers. If governments respond to the twits on the sidelines and enforce controls on rental levels, rather than allow market forces to set them, that will be yet another disincentive to investors &ndash; and the problem will get worse.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=100322]

Limiting how much a tenant has to pay in rent is worthless if the prospective tenant can&rsquo;t find a vacant property at any price. That&rsquo;s the reality at the moment. There are so few vacant properties that there are dozens of applicants for every listing and people who desperately need a home keep missing out. Rents are rising because people are offering more than the asking rent in an effort to out-bid their competitors, not because landlords are asking extortionate rents.

And, as an aside, increasingly businesses can&rsquo;t fill job vacancies because willing applicants can&rsquo;t find anywhere to live. The only answer to this problem is to increase the supply of rental properties. And that means introducing measures that encourage property investors.

That will elicit further howls of indignation from the chattering economists and other sideline snipers, but it&rsquo;s the only way to fix this problem.

Rental control is a quick fix medicine to treat the symptoms, It will make the problem worse by exacerbating the fundamental problem, which is that Australians have been massively discouraged from becoming investors

terryryder

Why is there a housing shortage and why will government controls make it worse? Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

EXPERT INSIGHT

Price growth in the early part of 2021 has been beyond impressive in many locations across Australia - it&rsquo;s been exponential.

Every three months, Hotspotting analyses sales activity and prices for every suburb and town in the nation, for the quarterly editions of The Price Predictor Index.

In updating the median prices for each location, it&rsquo;s impossible to avoid the conclusion that something extraordinary has been happening in many of our property markets.

The change in median prices in just three months has been, in many cases, mind-boggling. At Bondi Beach in Sydney, the median house price three months ago was $2,820,000. Now it&rsquo;s $3,100,000. That&rsquo;s an increase of $280,000 in just three months.

At Noosa Heads in Queensland, the median house price has risen from $1,150,000 to $1,400,000, an increase of $250,000 - 22% - in three months. And at Byron Bay, the median house price has gone from $1,835,000 to $2,220,000. 
 
It&rsquo;s happening also in some of the nation&rsquo;s apartment markets. In Kogarah in Sydney, the median unit price has risen from $685,000 to $785,000, a rise 15% in three months, while the median unit price in Rose Bay has increased $125,000, St Ives is up $100,000 and Lindfield $125,000 in that time frame.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6201 project_image_fid=89013]

Here are some Sydney examples of median price rises over the past 3 months:

<ul>
	<li>Lindfield, houses up from $2,750,000 to $3,120,000, units up from $1,200,000 to $1,325,000.</li>
	<li>Bronte, houses up from $3,400,000 to $3,890,000.</li>
	<li>Cremorne, houses from $2,800,000 to $3,000,000, units from $1,125,000 to $1,170,000.</li>
	<li>Croydon, houses from $1,570,000 to $1,770,000.</li>
	<li>Kogarah, houses from $1,305,000 to $1,405,000, units from $685,000 to $785,000.</li>
	<li>Fairlight, units from $1,425,000 to $1,560,000.</li>
	<li>Freshwater, houses from $2,480,000 to $2,660,000, units from $890,000 to $940,000.</li>
	<li>Kensington, houses from $2,445,000 to $2,680,000.</li>
	<li>Granville, houses from $730,000 to $805,000.</li>
	<li>Coogee, houses from $2,900,000 to $3,125,000.</li>
	<li>Kirrawee, units from $690,000 to $740,000.</li>
	<li>Jannali, units from $665,000 to $730,000.</li>
	<li>Canley Vale, houses from $810,000 to $880,000.</li>
	<li>Collaroy, houses from $2,400,000 to $2,580,000, units from $875,000 to $905,000.</li>
	<li>Naremburn, houses from $2,280,000 to $2,620,000.</li>
	<li>North Sydney, units from $945,000 to $1,025,000.</li>
	<li>Rose Bay, houses from $3,810,000 to $3,960,000, units from $1,475,000 to $1,600,000.</li>
	<li>Woolloomooloo, units from $935,000 to $1,280,000.</li>
	<li>Seaforth, houses from $2,690,000 to $2,895,000.</li>
	<li>St Ives, houses from $2,040,000 to $2,175,000, units from $1,020,000 to $1,120,000.</li>
</ul>

Examples of median price rises in Regional Queensland include these:

<ul>
	<li>Minyama, houses up from $1,315,000 to $1,400,000.</li>
	<li>Mudjimba, houses from $770,000 to $845,000, units from $445,000 to $485,000.</li>
	<li>Noosa Heads, houses from $1,150,000 to $1,400,000, units from $905,000 to $960,000.</li>
	<li>Maleny, houses from $675,000 to $720,000.</li>
	<li>Mermaid Beach, houses from $1,350,000 to $1,440,000, units from $440,000 to $475,000.</li>
	<li>Burleigh Waters, houses from $820,000 to $870,000, units from $415,000 to $465,000.</li>
	<li>Palm Cove Cairns, houses from $670,000 to $745,000, units from $265,000 to $310,000.</li>
</ul>

[smartcode_project:default project_id=22057 project_image_fid=150842]

And examples from Regional NSW include these:

<ul>
	<li>Wentworth Falls, houses up from $675,000 to $770,000.</li>
	<li>Byron Bay, houses from $1,835,000 to $2,220,000.</li>
	<li>Gerringong, houses from $890,000 to $995,000.</li>
	<li>Kiama, houses from $980,000 to $1,050,000, units from $630,000 to $680,000.</li>
	<li>Kingscliff, houses from $1,165,000 to $1,240,000 and units from $620,000 to $690,000.</li>
	<li>Merimbula, houses from $625,000 to $720,000.</li>
	<li>Yamba, houses from $590,000 to $670,000, units from $450,000 to $510,000.</li>
	<li>Albury, houses from $550,000 to $605,000.</li>
	<li>Moss Vale, houses from $690,000 to $740,000.</li>
</ul>

There are thousands of other similar scenarios from the various markets across Australia.

The change in median prices in just three months has been, in many cases, mind-boggling across Sydney

Property price growth has been beyond impressive across Sydney: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

EXPERT INSIGHT

Make no mistake, this is a big spending budget.

The policy approach was appropriate highlighted by worthy social programs. However, a better balance between short term tax initiatives and genuine tax reform would have been a more effective approach.

New stimulus initiatives, headlined by the surprise extension to the instant asset write-offs for businesses, are worth 4.1 per cent of GDP over four years &ndash; about eight times the pace of the pre-election budget in 2019.

For perspective, the government&rsquo;s stimulus spending in last year&rsquo;s budget following the biggest economic shock since the 1930s was a little higher at 5.5 per cent of GDP, but not materially so.

The disruption from COVID and this associated stimulus response is forecast to see net debt lift from 19.2% of GDP in 2018/19 to 34.2% in 2021/22 and 40.9% in 2024/25.

Despite this sharp increase in debt the cost of servicing the debt is forecast to hold at a modest 0.7% of GDP due to the low interest rate environment.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=3233 project_image_fid=160016]

An early use of policies to reduce debt would have been at the expense of allowing the economy to operate at its potential.

As with other countries debt ratios are unlikely to return to pre COVID levels.

Any return to sustained full employment would see significant budget repair although the public sector is still likely to cycle around much higher debt ratios than we saw before the advent of COVID.

Despite employment levels now being above pre-COVID-19 levels and GDP expected to boom this year, the government is clearly going all in to &ldquo;secure the recovery&rdquo; and drive the unemployment rate down faster.

This drive for growth strategy, along with appropriate commitments to additional services, sees fiscal and monetary policy firmly working together to reach full employment.

The government defines full employment as 4.5 per cent, although that level is not forecast to be reached until mid-2024. Westpac &ndash; and I believe the Reserve Bank &ndash; sees it as 4 per cent or even a little lower.

BILL EVANS&nbsp;is the Chief Economist at Westpac

The policy approach was appropriate highlighted by worthy social programs, however, a better balance between short term tax initiatives and genuine tax reform would have been a more effective approach

bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

Federal Budget 2021: Genuine tax reform stuck in the too-hard basket: Bill Evans

<html><body>The Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has warned that "history suggests that shifts in population growth can have large effects on the housing market."

It was his bluntest warning yet about the dangers of the current house price boom across most of the country.

The RBA boss affirmed the financial regulators were "watching carefully" to see if home lending restrictions were necessary while giving a speech at the Australian Financial Review's Business Summit.

"There are many moving parts at present," he noted.

"Record low interest rates; a shift in preferences towards houses and away from apartments; strong demand for housing outside our largest cities; large government incentives for first-home buyers and home builders; and the slowest population growth in a century," he observed.

"Time will tell as to how these various factors ultimately balance out, but history suggests that shifts in population growth can have large effects on the housing market."

"At its recent meetings, the board has discussed developments in the housing market, including the rising housing prices across most of the country.

"Looser standards would increase medium-term risks and add to the upward pressure on prices, so would be of concern," he advised.

Lowe said he recognised that low interest rates were one of the factors contributing to higher housing prices "and that high and rising housing prices raise concerns for many people."

"I would like to reiterate that the RBA does not target housing prices, nor would it make sense to do so. 

"I recognise that low interest rates are one of the factors contributing to higher housing prices and that high and rising housing prices raise concerns for many people. 

"There are various tools, other than higher interest rates, to address these concerns, leaving monetary policy to maintain its strong focus on the recovery in the economy, jobs and wages," he noted.</body></html>

The RBA governor Philip Lowe noted "history suggests that shifts in population growth can have large effects on the housing market."

jchancellor

RBA boss Dr Philip Lowe warns on low population growth impact on housing

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EXPERT INSIGHT

We have lifted our growth forecast for 2021 from 4% to 4.5%; the key will remain the household sector, where accumulated savings; ongoing reopening; vaccines and the boom in the housing market are likely to offset the major headwinds of reduced government support and zero net immigration.

Westpac has lifted its GDP growth forecast in 2021 from 4% to 4.5%, with the 2022 forecast holding at 3%.

The December quarter national accounts provided rich evidence of the key dynamics that will emerge as the recovery continues.

They showed continued evidence of Australia’s bounce back from the pandemic induced recession in the first half of 2020.

Growth in GDP printed at 3.1%qtr, following the 3.4% increase in the September quarter. Annual growth is now -1.1% for 2020, compared to market expectations of -2% only a week earlier.

The key components of growth – household consumption; business investment and dwelling construction all surprised on the upside.

Our forecasts for GDP growth anticipate solid ongoing momentum in those components in 2021.

Household consumption lifted by 4.3% in the December quarter 2020, significantly boosted by the reopening of Victoria where spending increased by 10.4%. Spending in the rest of Australia rose by 2.3%. This result provides compelling evidence of the “reopening” effect with Victoria contributing around 2ppts to the growth rate in household spending.
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bevans

Boom in housing market likely to offset major economic headwinds: Westpac's Bill Evans

<html><body>Australian home prices are likely to rise another 5% to 10% this year and next, according to Shane Oliver at AMP Capital.

"Prices were being boosted by record low mortgage rates, government home buyer incentives and the recovery in the jobs market.

"But the stop to immigration and weak rental markets will likely weigh on inner city areas and units in Melbourne and Sydney. 

"Outer suburbs, houses, smaller cities and regional areas will see relatively stronger gains in 2021," he forecast.

His comments came after housing finance rose to a new record; and house prices rose at their fastest pace in nearly 18 years. 

"While home building approvals fell sharply this reflects volatility driven by the HomeBuilder incentive scheme with dwelling construction still on track for strong growth.

"There was some other good news too with the share of housing and small business loans in payment deferrals collapsing further to just 1.8% and 1% respectively in January," he added.</body></html>

The stop to immigration and weak rental markets will likely weigh on inner city areas and units in Melbourne and Sydney

Weak rental markets will weigh on inner city units in Melbourne and Sydney: Shane Oliver

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Amid ongoing uncertainty in the global markets due to COVID-19 it remains low rates as usual for the RBA, who kept the official cash rate at 0.10 percent for another month.

Their recently released chart pack, which details figures from the world economy to Australia's financial figures, yielded interesting information about the Australian property situation

Private residential building approvals has continued to soar, up once again in February as seen below.

<img alt="" height="339" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/rba_chart_1.jpg" width="407">

This trend continues to be driven by growth in the detached housing sector which can be attributed to the HomeBuilder grant among other government initiatives

<img alt="" height="357" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/rba_chart_2.jpg" width="396">

There continues to be a gap between household consumption and disposable income.

A household's disposable income hadn't been higher than its consumption since 2014.

This is in sharp contrast to the current Covid-19 effected situation.

Housing price growth can be seen to have come out of a dip with APM recording the smallest falls as seen below. 

<img alt="" height="313" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/rba_chart_3.jpg" width="401">

Residex and CoreLogic data showed that for the year to February home price growth near zeroed out.

Housing loan commitments continue to soar to new record highs, levels well beyond the 2015 and 2017 highs.

<img alt="" height="353" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/rba_chart_4.jpg" width="393">

This trend is similarly driven by government initiatives with owner-occupiers rocking this trend up to $20 billion in commitments.

Investor's have also been investing further although clearly not to a similar level as many lack incentive in this current low supply, high demand market.
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Data showed that for the year to February home price growth near zeroed out, however a growth spike seems to be on the horizon

jordan_55689

House prices hold steady and ready for turnaround: RBA 

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The HomeBuilder Grant together with increased buyer confidence, record levels of savings and affordable land prices has encouraged an optimistic 2021 in Victoria, according to Red23’s managing director Terry Portelli.

Price growth remains at a minimal level, with the median land price stable at $322,000, increasing 0.31% during the last quarter of 2020 however down 0.62% year on year.

Median land price increases were seen across 5 of the 7 metro growth area municipalities as well as Greater Geelong with above 3% increases witnessed in Casey, Whittlesea, Greater Geelong and Mitchell.

Casey has continued to be the price leader, pushing their median land price over $360,000.

<img alt="" height="736" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/median_land_prices_vic_2021.jpg" width="1226">

Uncertainty arising from the Covid-19 pandemic and employment security meant the Victorian new homes sector suffered a push back in 2020, but adjusted by developing online selling environments, Portelli advised. 

“The second half of 2020 exceeded expectations due to the HomeBuilder Grant albeit impacted by limited international travel, population growth and migration,” he said, noting in metro Melbourne, nearly 15,000 land sales were made in 2020, doubling that of 2019.

The largest increases by municipality were Whittlesea (+129%), Melton (+123%) and Mitchell (+82%) while all other municipalities also increased by between 21% to 60%.

Red23 pointed out the HomeBuilder Grant proved successful in driving demand for new homes, with the Treasury figures showing Victoria accounted for 21,959 of the 75,000 applications.

“Titled lots available are now diminishing,” he advised.

Home buyers can now spend up to $850,000 on a home and receive the $15,000 HomeBuilder Grant when purchasing between January 1 and March 31, 2021 on condition that their income does not exceed $125,000 as an individual, or $200,000 as a couple.

“Land prices remain at their most affordable since early 2018.

“We have seen a reduction in the number of incentives and rebates being offered by developers,” he noted.

<h2>Recently listed properties in Melbourne:</h2>

[smartcode_project:default project_id=9023]

[smartcode_project:default project_id=22803]

[smartcode_project:default project_id=22700]
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Median land price increases were seen across 5 of the 7 metro growth area municipalities as well as Greater Geelong

Why are land prices creating an optimistic 2021 Victorian market?

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Here’s how you spot a real estate charlatan, someone who likes to present themselves as a real estate expert but who in reality knows nothing worth hearing …

- They speak of Australia as a single property market; and/or

- They attribute price growth to “record low interest rates”

Mostly these pretenders are economists. I would remind you of a much-quoted definition of an economist: Someone who can tell you tomorrow why their predictions yesterday didn’t come true today.

We have learnt over the years, but particularly in 2020, that the bigger the name and the media profile, the worse they are at analysing residential real estate and forecasting outcomes.

Cast your minds back to the predictions in March/April 2020 from senior economists employed by the major banks, big institutions like AMP and even those working for specialist real estate research entities. And then again later in the year when the so-called September Cliff was proclaimed an impending disaster.

There was a chorus of predictions of a long recession, with double-digit unemployment and real estate values collapsing. How spectacularly wrong they were. Only the specialist property analysts got it right.

But the appalling track record of economists with real estate analysis stretches back years and includes the alarmist predictions about property prices in the wake of the GFC – also proven to be spectacularly wrong. 

It’s remarkable that media continues to give these charlatans airplay. Credibility, it seems, is optional, so long as you have “economist” in your title.

So the nation’s gaggle of chattering economists has been compelled to admit they got it wrong in 2020 and most of them are now forecasting big price growth this year. You will note that what they are predicting is already happening, highlighting another characteristic of this bloated and overblown profession: predicting the recent past.

And how do they explain the gathering boom? Record low interest rates!

God help us. The lack of expertise among the talking heads who clutter up the airways with their simplistic analysis is quite breathtaking.

As we all know, we’ve had ultra-low interest rates for years. Very little has changed in that regard to explain the recent uplift in sales activity. When Sydney and Melbourne were having their real estate boom from 2013 to 2017-ish, economists generally explained the price rises with “record low interest rates”. They had no response to the obvious question at the time: how come prices in Perth and Darwin were falling, while Canberra, Brisbane and Adelaide were stagnating?

The “low interest rates = property boom” theory also fails to explain why the last two genuine nationwide property booms, in the late 1980s and in the early years of this century, both occurred during periods of very high and rising interest rates.

My view, strongly, is that record low interest rates do not explain what’s happening in real estate across most of Australia.

The growth is being fueled by multiple factors, including …

- A stronger-than-expected economy

- Lower-than-predicted unemployment

- State and federal stimulus measures

- The build-up of savings during the pandemic period

- People in lockdown reviewing their life choices

- Ultra-low vacancies, putting upward pressures on rents and prices

- Pent-up demand, leading to rising sales activity

- Low listings levels, relative to rising buyer demand

- The Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle trend, which is hugely influential

- Increased spending on major new infrastructure

- The revival of the resources sector

- The return of ex-pat Australians in large numbers

- The belated entry of investors to compete with owner-occupiers

-Perceptions about the safety and solidity of bricks &amp; mortar in times of uncertainty

-The growing prevalence of e-commerce and its impact on industrial property, which has repercussions for residential demand

- Access to low-cost finance

And you’ll notice that I mention low interest rates as just one of 16 different factors – and I mention it last and definitely least.

Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au

ryder@hotspotting.com.au

twitter.com/hotspotting
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The nation’s gaggle of chattering economists has been compelled to admit they got it wrong in 2020

Economists got real estate wrong in 2020: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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After a stronger than expected housing turnaround, NAB are now forecasting dwelling values to rise by an average of eight per cent nationally across 2021, with a view that 2022 will also see strong gains.

The revision comes after the turnaround in the housing markets, pared with low interest rates, the government's HomeBuilder grants and stamp duty concessions on newly built properties.

"The housing market has fared significantly better than expected over the past year, despite significant headwinds from slower population growth and a weaker labour market," the NAB report read.

"Lower interest rates and household income support from the Federal Government have been a key support amidst the challenges of the pandemic.

"While the impact of lower rates is broad-based, there are some key dynamics underlying our forecast."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=90553]

NAB expect the smaller capitals to continue to outpace Sydney and Melbourne, but the two biggest capital city markets have closed the gap from NAB's previous forecasts.

In the Q2 update in mid-2019, NAB were forecasting a -4.3 per cent average decline across the country, with Melbourne (-7.3 per cent) and Sydney (-4.7 per cent), driving the losses.

In Q3, following a positive response to COVID-19, NAB flipped their forecast, predicting five per cent gains nationally over 2021 and Melbourne (+3.6 per cent) and Sydney (+4.4 per cent), going full circle.

Now NAB expect nearly eight per cent gains average, with Sydney and Melbourne not far behind other capital city markets.

<img alt="" height="791" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/nab_q4_forecast.jpg" width="1200">

They expect the best performer to be Brisbane, where there are 10.1 per cent gains forecast for 2021 and 6.3 per cent for 2022.

Adelaide and Hobart are predicted to see the strongest gains over 2022, up 7.4 per cent after 8.9 per cent and 9.7 per cent gains over 2021.

Sentiment has been on the turn for a number of months and the NAB Residential Property Index ended 2020 at a survey high +45 points. Confidence levels returned to levels last seen before COVID in late-2019 as expectations lifted sharply for house price growth across the country.

<img alt="" height="905" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/nab_sentiment_q4.jpg" width="1200">

NAB economist Alan Astor says first home buyer demand remains very strong in new and established housing markets and is likely being supported by historically low interest rates and government support such as the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme and HomeBuilder.

"The brief pullback in house prices earlier in the year may have also helped sentiment among these buyers."
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The revision comes after a stronger than expected housing market, pared with the low interest rates, the government's HomeBuilder grants and stamp duty concessions on new properties.



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