Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

2021 Forecast

A key reason why fundamental problems in the housing market are never solved is because people seek to treat the symptoms rather than the cause.

This is true in business and in life, as much as it is in the housing market. It makes little sense to take medication for high blood pressure if the underlying cause is that you&rsquo;re overweight because you have a bad diet and you don&rsquo;t exercise.

People who hover around the sidelines of the real estate industry, sniping at things they don&rsquo;t like, are highly prone to demanding actions on the symptoms of a perceived problem when they should be addressing the underlying causes of the symptoms.

Treating symptoms, while ignoring causes, has a tendency to make problems worse. Right now, we have spectators to the housing market demanding controls on landlords because rents are rising.

Other spectators want draconian measures from regulatory authorities because prices are rising, bringing howls of outrage about housing affordability.

In both cases, their targets are investors, always a popular choice as scapegoats when there&rsquo;s growth in housing markets and it&rsquo;s characterised in media as a crisis.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=94542]

The natural impulse of the sideline whingers is to demand a crackdown aimed at investors, because they&rsquo;re always seen as the villains.

The reality for the issue of rapidly rising rents is that we need to be encouraging investors, not attacking them.

The symptoms of the problem are rising rents, but the cause is a chronic shortage of rental properties.

In my four decades of researching and writing about housing markets, I&rsquo;ve never seen vacancies so low in so many places.

Anyone genuine in their concerns (rather than having a whinge or grandstanding for political reasons) should be asking why we have such a shortage and how we can fix that fundamental problem.

Rental control is a quick fix medicine to treat the symptoms, while ignoring the underlying market health issues. It will make the problem worse by exacerbating the fundamental problem, which is that Australians have been massively discouraged from becoming investors.

Rental vacancies are a function of the activity of property investors. When people buy dwellings and make them available for rental in large numbers, there are ample properties for everyone who wants or needs to be a tenant, and rents are likely to be stable.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=600]

But investors have been largely absent from the market in recent years. There has been a growing raft of disincentives to property investment over the past five or six years &ndash; including a series of negative measures by APRA, negative changes to depreciation rules and menacing political rhetoric at the last two federal elections, notably from the ALP which has been intent on scrapping negative gearing and increasing capital gains tax.

We&rsquo;ve also had state governments discouraging investors by hitting them with new taxes, fees and charges. The impact of all those different milestone events since 2015 has been a profound discouragement to investment. Some sections of media have characterised property investment as something akin to a criminal activity, abetted by politicians who have claimed the average investor is a rich greedy bastard who owns 15 or 20 properties and is ripping off the system &ndash; a blatant lie (the official data shows 75% of investors have average incomes and own only one or two properties) but lapped up by a careless media.

The short-term consequences include a rental shortage crisis and the long-term outcomes include fewer Australians who will be self-funded in retirement and will need to be supported in growing numbers by taxpayers. If governments respond to the twits on the sidelines and enforce controls on rental levels, rather than allow market forces to set them, that will be yet another disincentive to investors &ndash; and the problem will get worse.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=100322]

Limiting how much a tenant has to pay in rent is worthless if the prospective tenant can&rsquo;t find a vacant property at any price. That&rsquo;s the reality at the moment. There are so few vacant properties that there are dozens of applicants for every listing and people who desperately need a home keep missing out. Rents are rising because people are offering more than the asking rent in an effort to out-bid their competitors, not because landlords are asking extortionate rents.

And, as an aside, increasingly businesses can&rsquo;t fill job vacancies because willing applicants can&rsquo;t find anywhere to live. The only answer to this problem is to increase the supply of rental properties. And that means introducing measures that encourage property investors.

That will elicit further howls of indignation from the chattering economists and other sideline snipers, but it&rsquo;s the only way to fix this problem.

Rental control is a quick fix medicine to treat the symptoms, It will make the problem worse by exacerbating the fundamental problem, which is that Australians have been massively discouraged from becoming investors

terryryder

Why is there a housing shortage and why will government controls make it worse? Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

EXPERT INSIGHT

Price growth in the early part of 2021 has been beyond impressive in many locations across Australia - it&rsquo;s been exponential.

Every three months, Hotspotting analyses sales activity and prices for every suburb and town in the nation, for the quarterly editions of The Price Predictor Index.

In updating the median prices for each location, it&rsquo;s impossible to avoid the conclusion that something extraordinary has been happening in many of our property markets.

The change in median prices in just three months has been, in many cases, mind-boggling. At Bondi Beach in Sydney, the median house price three months ago was $2,820,000. Now it&rsquo;s $3,100,000. That&rsquo;s an increase of $280,000 in just three months.

At Noosa Heads in Queensland, the median house price has risen from $1,150,000 to $1,400,000, an increase of $250,000 - 22% - in three months. And at Byron Bay, the median house price has gone from $1,835,000 to $2,220,000. 
 
It&rsquo;s happening also in some of the nation&rsquo;s apartment markets. In Kogarah in Sydney, the median unit price has risen from $685,000 to $785,000, a rise 15% in three months, while the median unit price in Rose Bay has increased $125,000, St Ives is up $100,000 and Lindfield $125,000 in that time frame.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6201 project_image_fid=89013]

Here are some Sydney examples of median price rises over the past 3 months:

<ul>
	<li>Lindfield, houses up from $2,750,000 to $3,120,000, units up from $1,200,000 to $1,325,000.</li>
	<li>Bronte, houses up from $3,400,000 to $3,890,000.</li>
	<li>Cremorne, houses from $2,800,000 to $3,000,000, units from $1,125,000 to $1,170,000.</li>
	<li>Croydon, houses from $1,570,000 to $1,770,000.</li>
	<li>Kogarah, houses from $1,305,000 to $1,405,000, units from $685,000 to $785,000.</li>
	<li>Fairlight, units from $1,425,000 to $1,560,000.</li>
	<li>Freshwater, houses from $2,480,000 to $2,660,000, units from $890,000 to $940,000.</li>
	<li>Kensington, houses from $2,445,000 to $2,680,000.</li>
	<li>Granville, houses from $730,000 to $805,000.</li>
	<li>Coogee, houses from $2,900,000 to $3,125,000.</li>
	<li>Kirrawee, units from $690,000 to $740,000.</li>
	<li>Jannali, units from $665,000 to $730,000.</li>
	<li>Canley Vale, houses from $810,000 to $880,000.</li>
	<li>Collaroy, houses from $2,400,000 to $2,580,000, units from $875,000 to $905,000.</li>
	<li>Naremburn, houses from $2,280,000 to $2,620,000.</li>
	<li>North Sydney, units from $945,000 to $1,025,000.</li>
	<li>Rose Bay, houses from $3,810,000 to $3,960,000, units from $1,475,000 to $1,600,000.</li>
	<li>Woolloomooloo, units from $935,000 to $1,280,000.</li>
	<li>Seaforth, houses from $2,690,000 to $2,895,000.</li>
	<li>St Ives, houses from $2,040,000 to $2,175,000, units from $1,020,000 to $1,120,000.</li>
</ul>

Examples of median price rises in Regional Queensland include these:

<ul>
	<li>Minyama, houses up from $1,315,000 to $1,400,000.</li>
	<li>Mudjimba, houses from $770,000 to $845,000, units from $445,000 to $485,000.</li>
	<li>Noosa Heads, houses from $1,150,000 to $1,400,000, units from $905,000 to $960,000.</li>
	<li>Maleny, houses from $675,000 to $720,000.</li>
	<li>Mermaid Beach, houses from $1,350,000 to $1,440,000, units from $440,000 to $475,000.</li>
	<li>Burleigh Waters, houses from $820,000 to $870,000, units from $415,000 to $465,000.</li>
	<li>Palm Cove Cairns, houses from $670,000 to $745,000, units from $265,000 to $310,000.</li>
</ul>

[smartcode_project:default project_id=22057 project_image_fid=150842]

And examples from Regional NSW include these:

<ul>
	<li>Wentworth Falls, houses up from $675,000 to $770,000.</li>
	<li>Byron Bay, houses from $1,835,000 to $2,220,000.</li>
	<li>Gerringong, houses from $890,000 to $995,000.</li>
	<li>Kiama, houses from $980,000 to $1,050,000, units from $630,000 to $680,000.</li>
	<li>Kingscliff, houses from $1,165,000 to $1,240,000 and units from $620,000 to $690,000.</li>
	<li>Merimbula, houses from $625,000 to $720,000.</li>
	<li>Yamba, houses from $590,000 to $670,000, units from $450,000 to $510,000.</li>
	<li>Albury, houses from $550,000 to $605,000.</li>
	<li>Moss Vale, houses from $690,000 to $740,000.</li>
</ul>

There are thousands of other similar scenarios from the various markets across Australia.

The change in median prices in just three months has been, in many cases, mind-boggling across Sydney

Property price growth has been beyond impressive across Sydney: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

EXPERT INSIGHT

Make no mistake, this is a big spending budget.

The policy approach was appropriate highlighted by worthy social programs. However, a better balance between short term tax initiatives and genuine tax reform would have been a more effective approach.

New stimulus initiatives, headlined by the surprise extension to the instant asset write-offs for businesses, are worth 4.1 per cent of GDP over four years &ndash; about eight times the pace of the pre-election budget in 2019.

For perspective, the government&rsquo;s stimulus spending in last year&rsquo;s budget following the biggest economic shock since the 1930s was a little higher at 5.5 per cent of GDP, but not materially so.

The disruption from COVID and this associated stimulus response is forecast to see net debt lift from 19.2% of GDP in 2018/19 to 34.2% in 2021/22 and 40.9% in 2024/25.

Despite this sharp increase in debt the cost of servicing the debt is forecast to hold at a modest 0.7% of GDP due to the low interest rate environment.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=3233 project_image_fid=160016]

An early use of policies to reduce debt would have been at the expense of allowing the economy to operate at its potential.

As with other countries debt ratios are unlikely to return to pre COVID levels.

Any return to sustained full employment would see significant budget repair although the public sector is still likely to cycle around much higher debt ratios than we saw before the advent of COVID.

Despite employment levels now being above pre-COVID-19 levels and GDP expected to boom this year, the government is clearly going all in to &ldquo;secure the recovery&rdquo; and drive the unemployment rate down faster.

This drive for growth strategy, along with appropriate commitments to additional services, sees fiscal and monetary policy firmly working together to reach full employment.

The government defines full employment as 4.5 per cent, although that level is not forecast to be reached until mid-2024. Westpac &ndash; and I believe the Reserve Bank &ndash; sees it as 4 per cent or even a little lower.

BILL EVANS&nbsp;is the Chief Economist at Westpac

The policy approach was appropriate highlighted by worthy social programs, however, a better balance between short term tax initiatives and genuine tax reform would have been a more effective approach

bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

Federal Budget 2021: Genuine tax reform stuck in the too-hard basket: Bill Evans

<html><body>The Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has warned that "history suggests that shifts in population growth can have large effects on the housing market."

It was his bluntest warning yet about the dangers of the current house price boom across most of the country.

The RBA boss affirmed the financial regulators were "watching carefully" to see if home lending restrictions were necessary while giving a speech at the Australian Financial Review's Business Summit.

"There are many moving parts at present," he noted.

"Record low interest rates; a shift in preferences towards houses and away from apartments; strong demand for housing outside our largest cities; large government incentives for first-home buyers and home builders; and the slowest population growth in a century," he observed.

"Time will tell as to how these various factors ultimately balance out, but history suggests that shifts in population growth can have large effects on the housing market."

"At its recent meetings, the board has discussed developments in the housing market, including the rising housing prices across most of the country.

"Looser standards would increase medium-term risks and add to the upward pressure on prices, so would be of concern," he advised.

Lowe said he recognised that low interest rates were one of the factors contributing to higher housing prices "and that high and rising housing prices raise concerns for many people."

"I would like to reiterate that the RBA does not target housing prices, nor would it make sense to do so. 

"I recognise that low interest rates are one of the factors contributing to higher housing prices and that high and rising housing prices raise concerns for many people. 

"There are various tools, other than higher interest rates, to address these concerns, leaving monetary policy to maintain its strong focus on the recovery in the economy, jobs and wages," he noted.</body></html>

The RBA governor Philip Lowe noted "history suggests that shifts in population growth can have large effects on the housing market."

jchancellor

RBA boss Dr Philip Lowe warns on low population growth impact on housing

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EXPERT INSIGHT

We have lifted our growth forecast for 2021 from 4% to 4.5%; the key will remain the household sector, where accumulated savings; ongoing reopening; vaccines and the boom in the housing market are likely to offset the major headwinds of reduced government support and zero net immigration.

Westpac has lifted its GDP growth forecast in 2021 from 4% to 4.5%, with the 2022 forecast holding at 3%.

The December quarter national accounts provided rich evidence of the key dynamics that will emerge as the recovery continues.

They showed continued evidence of Australia’s bounce back from the pandemic induced recession in the first half of 2020.

Growth in GDP printed at 3.1%qtr, following the 3.4% increase in the September quarter. Annual growth is now -1.1% for 2020, compared to market expectations of -2% only a week earlier.

The key components of growth – household consumption; business investment and dwelling construction all surprised on the upside.

Our forecasts for GDP growth anticipate solid ongoing momentum in those components in 2021.

Household consumption lifted by 4.3% in the December quarter 2020, significantly boosted by the reopening of Victoria where spending increased by 10.4%. Spending in the rest of Australia rose by 2.3%. This result provides compelling evidence of the “reopening” effect with Victoria contributing around 2ppts to the growth rate in household spending.
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bevans

Boom in housing market likely to offset major economic headwinds: Westpac's Bill Evans

<html><body>Australian home prices are likely to rise another 5% to 10% this year and next, according to Shane Oliver at AMP Capital.

"Prices were being boosted by record low mortgage rates, government home buyer incentives and the recovery in the jobs market.

"But the stop to immigration and weak rental markets will likely weigh on inner city areas and units in Melbourne and Sydney. 

"Outer suburbs, houses, smaller cities and regional areas will see relatively stronger gains in 2021," he forecast.

His comments came after housing finance rose to a new record; and house prices rose at their fastest pace in nearly 18 years. 

"While home building approvals fell sharply this reflects volatility driven by the HomeBuilder incentive scheme with dwelling construction still on track for strong growth.

"There was some other good news too with the share of housing and small business loans in payment deferrals collapsing further to just 1.8% and 1% respectively in January," he added.</body></html>

The stop to immigration and weak rental markets will likely weigh on inner city areas and units in Melbourne and Sydney

Weak rental markets will weigh on inner city units in Melbourne and Sydney: Shane Oliver

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Amid ongoing uncertainty in the global markets due to COVID-19 it remains low rates as usual for the RBA, who kept the official cash rate at 0.10 percent for another month.

Their recently released chart pack, which details figures from the world economy to Australia's financial figures, yielded interesting information about the Australian property situation

Private residential building approvals has continued to soar, up once again in February as seen below.

<img alt="" height="339" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/rba_chart_1.jpg" width="407">

This trend continues to be driven by growth in the detached housing sector which can be attributed to the HomeBuilder grant among other government initiatives

<img alt="" height="357" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/rba_chart_2.jpg" width="396">

There continues to be a gap between household consumption and disposable income.

A household's disposable income hadn't been higher than its consumption since 2014.

This is in sharp contrast to the current Covid-19 effected situation.

Housing price growth can be seen to have come out of a dip with APM recording the smallest falls as seen below. 

<img alt="" height="313" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/rba_chart_3.jpg" width="401">

Residex and CoreLogic data showed that for the year to February home price growth near zeroed out.

Housing loan commitments continue to soar to new record highs, levels well beyond the 2015 and 2017 highs.

<img alt="" height="353" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/rba_chart_4.jpg" width="393">

This trend is similarly driven by government initiatives with owner-occupiers rocking this trend up to $20 billion in commitments.

Investor's have also been investing further although clearly not to a similar level as many lack incentive in this current low supply, high demand market.
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Data showed that for the year to February home price growth near zeroed out, however a growth spike seems to be on the horizon

jordan_55689

House prices hold steady and ready for turnaround: RBA 

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The HomeBuilder Grant together with increased buyer confidence, record levels of savings and affordable land prices has encouraged an optimistic 2021 in Victoria, according to Red23’s managing director Terry Portelli.

Price growth remains at a minimal level, with the median land price stable at $322,000, increasing 0.31% during the last quarter of 2020 however down 0.62% year on year.

Median land price increases were seen across 5 of the 7 metro growth area municipalities as well as Greater Geelong with above 3% increases witnessed in Casey, Whittlesea, Greater Geelong and Mitchell.

Casey has continued to be the price leader, pushing their median land price over $360,000.

<img alt="" height="736" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/median_land_prices_vic_2021.jpg" width="1226">

Uncertainty arising from the Covid-19 pandemic and employment security meant the Victorian new homes sector suffered a push back in 2020, but adjusted by developing online selling environments, Portelli advised. 

“The second half of 2020 exceeded expectations due to the HomeBuilder Grant albeit impacted by limited international travel, population growth and migration,” he said, noting in metro Melbourne, nearly 15,000 land sales were made in 2020, doubling that of 2019.

The largest increases by municipality were Whittlesea (+129%), Melton (+123%) and Mitchell (+82%) while all other municipalities also increased by between 21% to 60%.

Red23 pointed out the HomeBuilder Grant proved successful in driving demand for new homes, with the Treasury figures showing Victoria accounted for 21,959 of the 75,000 applications.

“Titled lots available are now diminishing,” he advised.

Home buyers can now spend up to $850,000 on a home and receive the $15,000 HomeBuilder Grant when purchasing between January 1 and March 31, 2021 on condition that their income does not exceed $125,000 as an individual, or $200,000 as a couple.

“Land prices remain at their most affordable since early 2018.

“We have seen a reduction in the number of incentives and rebates being offered by developers,” he noted.

<h2>Recently listed properties in Melbourne:</h2>

[smartcode_project:default project_id=9023]

[smartcode_project:default project_id=22803]

[smartcode_project:default project_id=22700]
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Median land price increases were seen across 5 of the 7 metro growth area municipalities as well as Greater Geelong

Why are land prices creating an optimistic 2021 Victorian market?

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Here’s how you spot a real estate charlatan, someone who likes to present themselves as a real estate expert but who in reality knows nothing worth hearing …

- They speak of Australia as a single property market; and/or

- They attribute price growth to “record low interest rates”

Mostly these pretenders are economists. I would remind you of a much-quoted definition of an economist: Someone who can tell you tomorrow why their predictions yesterday didn’t come true today.

We have learnt over the years, but particularly in 2020, that the bigger the name and the media profile, the worse they are at analysing residential real estate and forecasting outcomes.

Cast your minds back to the predictions in March/April 2020 from senior economists employed by the major banks, big institutions like AMP and even those working for specialist real estate research entities. And then again later in the year when the so-called September Cliff was proclaimed an impending disaster.

There was a chorus of predictions of a long recession, with double-digit unemployment and real estate values collapsing. How spectacularly wrong they were. Only the specialist property analysts got it right.

But the appalling track record of economists with real estate analysis stretches back years and includes the alarmist predictions about property prices in the wake of the GFC – also proven to be spectacularly wrong. 

It’s remarkable that media continues to give these charlatans airplay. Credibility, it seems, is optional, so long as you have “economist” in your title.

So the nation’s gaggle of chattering economists has been compelled to admit they got it wrong in 2020 and most of them are now forecasting big price growth this year. You will note that what they are predicting is already happening, highlighting another characteristic of this bloated and overblown profession: predicting the recent past.

And how do they explain the gathering boom? Record low interest rates!

God help us. The lack of expertise among the talking heads who clutter up the airways with their simplistic analysis is quite breathtaking.

As we all know, we’ve had ultra-low interest rates for years. Very little has changed in that regard to explain the recent uplift in sales activity. When Sydney and Melbourne were having their real estate boom from 2013 to 2017-ish, economists generally explained the price rises with “record low interest rates”. They had no response to the obvious question at the time: how come prices in Perth and Darwin were falling, while Canberra, Brisbane and Adelaide were stagnating?

The “low interest rates = property boom” theory also fails to explain why the last two genuine nationwide property booms, in the late 1980s and in the early years of this century, both occurred during periods of very high and rising interest rates.

My view, strongly, is that record low interest rates do not explain what’s happening in real estate across most of Australia.

The growth is being fueled by multiple factors, including …

- A stronger-than-expected economy

- Lower-than-predicted unemployment

- State and federal stimulus measures

- The build-up of savings during the pandemic period

- People in lockdown reviewing their life choices

- Ultra-low vacancies, putting upward pressures on rents and prices

- Pent-up demand, leading to rising sales activity

- Low listings levels, relative to rising buyer demand

- The Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle trend, which is hugely influential

- Increased spending on major new infrastructure

- The revival of the resources sector

- The return of ex-pat Australians in large numbers

- The belated entry of investors to compete with owner-occupiers

-Perceptions about the safety and solidity of bricks &amp; mortar in times of uncertainty

-The growing prevalence of e-commerce and its impact on industrial property, which has repercussions for residential demand

- Access to low-cost finance

And you’ll notice that I mention low interest rates as just one of 16 different factors – and I mention it last and definitely least.

Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au

ryder@hotspotting.com.au

twitter.com/hotspotting
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The nation’s gaggle of chattering economists has been compelled to admit they got it wrong in 2020

Economists got real estate wrong in 2020: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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After a stronger than expected housing turnaround, NAB are now forecasting dwelling values to rise by an average of eight per cent nationally across 2021, with a view that 2022 will also see strong gains.

The revision comes after the turnaround in the housing markets, pared with low interest rates, the government's HomeBuilder grants and stamp duty concessions on newly built properties.

"The housing market has fared significantly better than expected over the past year, despite significant headwinds from slower population growth and a weaker labour market," the NAB report read.

"Lower interest rates and household income support from the Federal Government have been a key support amidst the challenges of the pandemic.

"While the impact of lower rates is broad-based, there are some key dynamics underlying our forecast."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=90553]

NAB expect the smaller capitals to continue to outpace Sydney and Melbourne, but the two biggest capital city markets have closed the gap from NAB's previous forecasts.

In the Q2 update in mid-2019, NAB were forecasting a -4.3 per cent average decline across the country, with Melbourne (-7.3 per cent) and Sydney (-4.7 per cent), driving the losses.

In Q3, following a positive response to COVID-19, NAB flipped their forecast, predicting five per cent gains nationally over 2021 and Melbourne (+3.6 per cent) and Sydney (+4.4 per cent), going full circle.

Now NAB expect nearly eight per cent gains average, with Sydney and Melbourne not far behind other capital city markets.

<img alt="" height="791" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/nab_q4_forecast.jpg" width="1200">

They expect the best performer to be Brisbane, where there are 10.1 per cent gains forecast for 2021 and 6.3 per cent for 2022.

Adelaide and Hobart are predicted to see the strongest gains over 2022, up 7.4 per cent after 8.9 per cent and 9.7 per cent gains over 2021.

Sentiment has been on the turn for a number of months and the NAB Residential Property Index ended 2020 at a survey high +45 points. Confidence levels returned to levels last seen before COVID in late-2019 as expectations lifted sharply for house price growth across the country.

<img alt="" height="905" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/nab_sentiment_q4.jpg" width="1200">

NAB economist Alan Astor says first home buyer demand remains very strong in new and established housing markets and is likely being supported by historically low interest rates and government support such as the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme and HomeBuilder.

"The brief pullback in house prices earlier in the year may have also helped sentiment among these buyers."
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The revision comes after a stronger than expected housing market, pared with the low interest rates, the government's HomeBuilder grants and stamp duty concessions on new properties.



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