Developers and apartment buyers have a narrowing window of opportunity before Brisbane's Olympic infrastructure pipeline begins competing directly with residential construction, pushing up costs, tightening labour supply and making new projects increasingly difficult to deliver.

While Brisbane's apartment market continues to benefit from strong population growth and limited housing supply, industry research suggests the years leading up to 2027 could prove to be the most important period for developers looking to secure builders and buyers hoping to purchase before the next wave of price increases.

A new Colliers report, Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games: Creating Solutions, highlights the scale of the challenge. While thousands of new homes are planned across South East Queensland, the Brisbane Olympic Athletes Village alone will deliver more than 10,500 beds during the Games before being converted into around 1,750 to 2,000 apartments. Equivalent to almost two years of typical inner-city apartment supply, the project will also absorb a significant share of the construction workforce and building materials.

The broader construction pipeline paints an even clearer picture.

Construction Skills Queensland's Horizon 2032 report forecasts Queensland's annual construction pipeline will average $69 billion over the coming years before peaking at $75 billion in 2027-28. Demand for construction workers is expected to increase by 17 per cent to almost 150,000 people, with the industry facing an annual shortfall of around 19,000 workers that could blow out to as many as 35,000 during the peak construction period.

The Olympic venues, athletes village and supporting infrastructure will account for billions of dollars worth of work across South East Queensland through to 2032, creating intense competition for labour at a time when Australia's residential construction sector is already under pressure.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150489 project_image_fid=373834]

Colliers Queensland Residential Director Andrew Scriven said the convergence of these projects is creating a clear window of opportunity for both developers and buyers.

"From 2027 onwards, the market will shift dramatically," Scriven said.

"Labour will increasingly be locked into government-led infrastructure and Olympic projects, which means private residential developments will face higher costs and tighter margins. The developers who move now are the ones most likely to get projects off the ground."

Scriven said the same dynamic would also affect buyers, with fewer apartment projects expected to launch once construction capacity tightens.

"If you're looking to change your lifestyle over the next five years, now is your window of opportunity to buy."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150713 project_image_fid=373827]

Developers are already positioning themselves ahead of that window.

Following the success of Monarch at Toowong, Consolidated Properties is preparing to launch two new Brisbane apartment projects in the second half of 2026. They include <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/gloriette-30-bedivere-street-yeerongpilly-qld-4105">Gloriette</a> at Yeerongpilly Green, a 25-storey tower within one of Brisbane's key Olympic precincts, and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/castile-47-skyring-terrace-newstead-qld-4006">Castile</a>, a recently approved 25-storey riverfront development at 47 Skyring Terrace in Newstead.

Hutchinson Builders will deliver both projects, with early works already underway at Yeerongpilly and Newstead expected to commence later this year.

The timing comes as Brisbane's fundamentals continue to strengthen, with strong interstate migration, population growth and vacancy rates remaining below 1.5 per cent.

Colliers Queensland researcher Pragya Sharma said Greater Brisbane is forecast to require around 40,000 new apartments between 2021 and 2031.

"There's a real mismatch emerging between when housing is needed and when it will be feasible to build," Sharma said.

"As a result, the period leading up to 2027 presents a key window of opportunity for developers to secure approvals, funding and construction capacity, while buyers will have greater choice before supply constraints intensify."

Colliers research outlines a critical pre-2027 window to start residential projects before labour squeeze: now is the time to buy

Joel Robinson

Developers, buyers on watch in South East Queensland ahead of construction crunch: Colliers

It's taken less than nine months for developer Sherpa Property Group to sell out all 51 apartments in its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-oasis-palm-beach-7-9-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Oasis</a> development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/palm-beach-qld-4221">Palm Beach</a>, over a year before its anticipated completion.

&nbsp;

Located at 7-9 Sixth Avenue, the $67 million development has resonated strongly with both local owner-occupiers and downsizers seeking high-quality apartments within walking distance of the beach, dining precincts and everyday amenities.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357458]

Christie Leet, Founder of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Group</a>, said the sell-out reflected both the strength of the Palm Beach market and the success of Sherpa's community-first approach to development.

"The sell-out of Oasis is a fantastic outcome and reinforces the strong demand we're seeing for thoughtfully designed apartments in lifestyle locations," Leet said.

"From the outset, our vision was to create a development that genuinely enhanced the Palm Beach community while providing residents with exceptional homes and wellness-focused amenities.

"We've been incredibly encouraged by the level of local support throughout the campaign, 72.5 per cent of buyers are locals, with a significant proportion of purchasers choosing Oasis as their future home rather than an investment."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357463]

Construction is now progressing following development approval, with trusted builder LPS Group delivering the project and completion anticipated in Q3 2027.

Oasis forms part of Sherpa Group's successful Flourish collection, which has become recognised for its focus on wellness, community and elevated coastal living.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357469]

Residents will have private access to a rooftop amenity space featuring a pool, gym, sauna, steam room, hot and cold plunge pools, spa and barbecue facilities.

"The success of Oasis demonstrates that buyers continue to prioritise quality, location and lifestyle," Leet said.

"We are proud to have delivered a project that has resonated so strongly with the market and look forward to bringing Oasis to life for our future residents."

Sherpa recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-palm-beach-1150-1160-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a>, its third instalment of the Flourish brand in Palm Beach following Flourish Oasis and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Amargo</a>.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151449]

Sherpa sells out Flourish Oasis in booming Palm Beach

Urban Property Group's <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/la-vera-macquarie-park-94-talavera-road-macquarie-park-nsw-2113">La Vera</a> is leading the next phase of Macquarie Park's residential evolution, with the new apartment development set to become the first of several new apartment projects in the precinct to complete.

The 169-apartment building has now topped out ahead of its scheduled completion in the third quarter of 2026, as new residential investment continues to reshape one of Sydney's largest employment hubs into a true mixed-use precinct.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=368645]

Cox Architecture has designed La Vera to capture the best of its unique positioning on Talavera Road, orienting the building towards Lane Cove National Park.&nbsp;The building features a sculpted northern façade with flowing curves inspired by the surrounding landscape, while its city-facing elevation adopts a more structured architectural expression to maximise skyline views.

"The vision for the project was to conceive a building that adopted an organic and curvilinear form to the northern portion that faces the Lane Cove National Park," <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">Cox Architecture</a> Director Felipe Miranda said.

"The residents that reside in the northern portion of the building benefit by having beautifully crafted curved balconies that speak to the natural context and heighten the relationship of their internal living spaces to the external balconies."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=358802]

La Vera offers a diverse mix of one, two, three, and four-bedroom configurations, with prices currently starting from $740,000. Buyers so far have been a mix of Sydney-based investors,&nbsp;metro commuters, owner-occupiers and downsizers from surrounding North Shore suburbs.

Both investors and owner-occupiers have been drawn to La Vera's proximity to Macquarie University, Macquarie University Hospital, Macquarie Centre and the Sydney Metro, infrastructure that supports both strong rental demand and a convenient lifestyle for residents.

The apartments feature full-height glazing, timber flooring throughout living areas, stone kitchen benchtops, SMEG appliances, floor-to-ceiling bathroom tiling and ducted air conditioning.

Residents will have access to a rooftop recreation level featuring a swimming pool, sauna, barbecue facilities and landscaped relaxation areas, complemented by additional communal space at ground level. Many apartments enjoy uninterrupted views across Lane Cove National Park, reinforcing the project's connection to its natural setting.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=364551]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a>, a family-owned developer and builder with nearly four decades of experience, holds a 4.5-star iCIRT rating and was Australia's first developer to introduce 10-Year Latent Defects Insurance (LDI). La Vera is the first apartment development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/macquarie-park-nsw-2113">Macquarie Park</a> approved to offer the additional insurance protection, alongside a five-year warranty on SMEG appliances.

Urban Property Group CEO Patrick Elias said the additional protection reflects changing buyer expectations in the off the plan market.

"Consumers are a lot more weary and a lot more concerned in buying off the plan than they ever have been. Having LDI is a tool to portray the confidence that we have in our product, and a confidence we want buyers to share," Elias said.

Following completion of the building later this year, buyers will move into their apartments well before Christmas.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134951]

La Vera closes in on completion as Macquarie Park continues residential transformation

Brisbane developer Red &amp; Co's decision to include dual key apartments in its debut Gold Coast apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/como-varsity-lakes-22-lake-street-varsity-lakes-qld-4227">COMO Varsity Lakes</a>, is proving to be one of the project's biggest drawcards, with buyers quickly snapping up the flexible residences.

More than half of the project's 36 dual key apartments have already sold, helping drive COMO beyond the 50 per cent sold mark within the first month of launch.

The strong response highlights growing demand for apartment designs that can adapt to changing lifestyles, with buyers increasingly looking for homes that accommodate multi-generational living, provide rental income opportunities or simply offer greater flexibility over time.

Located on the shores of Lake Orr, COMO will deliver 156 apartments across 16 levels, with the dual-key residences forming a limited release within the broader development.

Each combines a primary two-bedroom apartment with a fully self-contained studio on a single title, connected by a shared foyer and lockable internal door. The design allows owners to house ageing parents, adult children or guests while maintaining privacy, or lease the secondary residence to generate additional income.

Just 17 of the original 36 dual key apartments remain available.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=367096]

The innovative configuration combines two fully self-contained residences on a single title, typically comprising a primary two-bedroom apartment alongside a separate studio residence, connected via a shared foyer and lockable internal door.&nbsp;

The model is proving particularly attractive to owner occupiers navigating changing family dynamics and the realities of the current housing crisis.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363511]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/npa">NPA</a>&nbsp;CEO Andrew Erwin said dual key living was resonating strongly with modern buyers because it delivered both financial flexibility and practical lifestyle benefits.&nbsp;

“The housing crisis and rising cost of living are fundamentally changing how Australians think about home ownership,” Erwin said.&nbsp;

“Dual key apartments provide a genuine solution for families who want to stay connected while maintaining independence. Parents can help adult children save for a future home, ageing parents can remain nearby without moving into aged care, and owners still retain privacy and flexibility.

“Importantly, buyers are also recognising the financial advantages. It creates the opportunity to generate additional income from part of the home without the holding costs associated with owning a separate investment property.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363509]

Unlike traditional dual occupancy arrangements, the residences operate under a single title, meaning owners only incur one set of body corporate fees, council rates and holding costs.&nbsp;

The secondary residence can also evolve over time - functioning as guest accommodation, a home office, creative studio or private retreat before later becoming an income-producing asset.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/red-co">Red &amp; Co</a>&nbsp;Director and Co-Founder David Laverty said the strong early sales reflected growing buyer urgency and changing priorities within the market.&nbsp;

“Securing more than half of COMO’s residences within such a short timeframe is an outstanding result and a clear endorsement of both the design and location,” Laverty said.&nbsp;

“Buyers are responding to the combination of location, connectivity and amenity, but ultimately it’s value relative to other East Coast markets that is driving enquiry.”&nbsp;

“We’re also seeing strong interest from owner occupiers looking for homes that can adapt with them over time. Flexibility has become one of the most important considerations for buyers in today’s market.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363515]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bda-architecture">BDA Architecture</a>, COMO features a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom residences with 2.7-metre ceilings and larger-format floorplans aimed at owner occupiers, downsizers and lifestyle-focused buyers.&nbsp;

The development will feature an extensive rooftop recreation and wellness offering including a 25-metre lap pool, sundeck, barbecue and dining areas, gym, sauna, plunge baths, landscaped gardens, wellness spaces and rooftop pickleball and paddleball courts.

The remaining dual key apartments range from 137 sqm to 167 sqm and include generous three-bedroom layouts with separate self-contained studio accommodation and dual parking.&nbsp;

Erwin said the dual key concept represented a broader shift in how Australians would live in the future.

“People want homes that can evolve with their lives,” he said.&nbsp;

“A dual key apartment can suit a family today, support an ageing parent tomorrow, and potentially generate income later on. That adaptability is becoming incredibly valuable in the current environment.”

Prices currently range from $2,115,750 to $2,583,000.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135546]

Inter-generational living drives demand for COMO’s dual key apartments as housing pressures reshape buyer priorities 

Builder-developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ceerose">Ceerose</a> has doubled down on its Leichhardt ambitions, lodging its second State Significant Development Application (SSDA) in the suburb in the last six months.

Their newest proposal seeks to transform a former industrial precinct into a new residential community centred around the adaptive reuse of one of the site's heritage warehouse buildings.

The new project, on a 6,930 sqm block at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/40-76-william-street-leichhardt-nsw-2040">40–76 William Street</a>, will bring more than 200 apartments to a suburb that has seen little to no new supply in recent years. It follows Ceerose's late 2025 SSDA for a mixed-use apartment project on nearby Parramatta Road, signalling the developer's growing investment in Sydney's Inner West.

Ceerose Founder Edward Doueihi told Apartments.com.au the developer’s long-standing presence in Leichhardt and the Inner West had given it a strong understanding of how the area has evolved and where its future opportunities lie.

“Ceerose has had a long-standing presence in Leichhardt and the Inner West, giving us a unique understanding of the area’s evolution and future potential,” Doueihi said.

“Having delivered projects throughout the region, we have witnessed the suburb’s transformation first-hand and understand the opportunities for its continued growth.”

Doueihi said that understanding also informed the planning process, with a comprehensive Stakeholder Engagement Outcomes Report prepared before the application was lodged.

The report identified the key issues and concerns raised by neighbouring residents and other stakeholders, allowing those matters to be considered and incorporated into the design where appropriate.

He said the delivery of additional housing would also play an important role in supporting the revitalisation of Norton Street and the Italian Forum.

“By increasing the local residential population, the development is expected to strengthen demand for local businesses, encourage further investment, and help restore the vibrancy that made the precinct a thriving destination in the early 2000s.”

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7258c54c-8167-479e-8361-2d5fca9915b4" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010B%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%202.jpg?VersionId=S9DQfxu_jpcB5LrAEYFUbyMzg5odW6i5" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a>, the redevelopment would involve the demolition of four existing industrial buildings while retaining and adaptively reusing the site's most significant warehouse. The retained structure would anchor a new residential precinct comprising five interconnected buildings arranged around a large central landscaped courtyard, with heights stepping from five storeys along the surrounding residential streets to 11 storeys at the William Street corner.

According to the Architecture Design Report by Woods Bagot, the proposal "seeks to create a residential village centred around a generous green heart while celebrating the site's industrial heritage through the adaptive reuse of the existing warehouse building."

The development would comprise 203 apartments, with 188 proposed as build-to-sell residences, alongside 15 affordable housing apartments.

Rather than treating the retained warehouse as a standalone heritage object, Woods Bagot has sought to weave the site's industrial history throughout the masterplan. The proposal retains the north and west facades of the landmark corner warehouse, while new buildings reinterpret the site's brick-and-steel industrial language through their material palette and architectural expression.

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9e8c64c2-881b-49e1-8c90-6b6acaaa45b6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010C%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%203.jpg?VersionId=Qm8_8H_Xrg_sc4Mdjc59vlAcKF_5wRTb" />

The design is organised around what Woods Bagot describes as a "green heart", a landscaped communal open space that reinstates the leafy character removed when the site became an industrial storage facility. A new pedestrian laneway running through the site would improve permeability between William, North and Francis streets, linking residents through landscaped public spaces while activating the ground plane.

Residents would have access to communal gardens and shared recreation areas distributed throughout the development. Sustainability has also been prioritised, with the project targeting an average 7.9-star NatHERS rating. Proposed initiatives include rooftop solar generation, rainwater harvesting, passive solar design, naturally ventilated lobbies, extensive cross-ventilation and the reuse of existing building fabric to reduce embodied carbon.

The adaptive reuse strategy became a defining feature of the application after heritage investigations found only one of the site's industrial buildings could feasibly be retained. The Heritage Impact Statement concludes that preserving the key warehouse façades while referencing the site's industrial character throughout the new development provides an appropriate balance between renewal and conservation.

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="efffafdb-594f-4e2b-a067-921fd51c05e1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010D%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%204.jpg?VersionId=DPmE4.k16YRt0i27hEZVtJAffarpvUfx" />

"Retention and adaptation of the site buildings has been explored but found not to be feasible except for the tallest building, whose street facades will be retained," the heritage report states.

"The proposed building will interpret the brick and steel character of the subject site, including reuse of some components and construction of a large 'sawtooth' structure in the proposed open space."

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3bfef2b5-83f5-40cd-9cab-767092f34266" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010E%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%205.jpg?VersionId=7asb3i_ql4ybbuJOUb5UHBEIy0Q9t.DF" />

The William Street site is located around 300 metres from Leichhardt North Light Rail station and a short walk to Norton Street's retail, dining and hospitality precinct. The surrounding area has increasingly become a focus for urban renewal given its proximity to public transport and the Parramatta Road corridor.

Doueihi founded Ceerose in 1998 and has grown the business to become one of Sydney's more active apartment developers in recent years, with completed projects including The Alex Collective in Alexandria, Abbie's Lane in Annandale, and the award-winning Munro House in Elizabeth Bay. They are currently delivering Belgravia, 17 luxury apartments in Potts Point.

First look: Ceerose doubles down in Leichhardt with adaptive reuse of former warehouse site

The Conversation

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<h1>
	By <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-newman-1858" style="font-size: 12px;">Peter Newman</a>, Curtin University
</h1>
Sydney’s West Connex Motorway, one of Australia’s biggest infrastructure projects, is <a href="https://theconversation.com/abbotts-transport-priorities-drive-australia-into-the-past-17988">not without its downsides</a> but may provide a potential model on how future urban public transport projects can be financed.
The first phase of the $11 billion project has been funded by the NSW government with <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-we-selling-off-the-family-silver-by-privatising-australias-ports-13824">the sale of Port Botany</a>. The failure to properly predict vehicle patronage in the past decade has resulted in a series of <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-14/cross-city-tunnel-owners-blame-government-for-debt-woes/4958084">tollway business failures</a>. So by opting to build the first phase itself, the government can accurately assess patronage estimates and hence toll income, then sell it off to private owners and operators, using the resulting funds to begin the next stage of the system.
Across Australia there is a backlog of urban rail projects that are now not in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-not-in-the-knitting-urban-rails-growing-significance-13754">Federal knitting</a>. Perhaps the West Connex model provides a way forward on urban public transport – with some advantages over motorways.
I’ve argued before about the <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-not-in-the-knitting-urban-rails-growing-significance-13754">dramatic shift</a> in urban rail patronage, with rail transit in particular becoming more market-based due to its ability to by-pass traffic. Economically it has an important role in making urban centres viable and attractive to global capital in the knowledge economy.
We know the arguments around it: reducing carbon and sprawl, improving air quality and health; but the new factor is its importance in improving urban productivity. <a href="http://glossary.econguru.com/economic-term/agglomeration+economies">Agglomeration economies</a> occur around urban rail stations due to the extra synergies between different parts of the workforce; international examples such as <a href="http://www.crossrail.co.uk/route/">London’s Cross Rail</a> have delivered a cost-benefit ratio of between 1.5 and 3.0.
While European and Asian cities traditionally show a strong market case for urban rail, now the car-dependent cities of America and Australia are demonstrating through patronage demand that there is a market for urban rail.
Figure 1 shows the recent growth in urban public transport in in Australian cities. The major growth has been driven by new infrastructure, so new rail projects in Adelaide and Sydney are likely to affect their trajectories to resemble the remarkable growth in Perth, Melbourne and SE Queensland.
<figure class="align-centre zoomable"><a href="https://c479107.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/31827/area14mp/rz78sff7-1379989372.jpg"><img src="https://c479107.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/31827/width668/rz78sff7-1379989372.jpg"></a>
	<figcaption> Author's own.</figcaption></figure>The data indicates substantial growth in public transport; patronage averaged out at 65% higher than was being attracted just over a decade ago – nearly 100% growth in Perth. All Australian cities now have large scale plans to complete their urban public transport systems.
Perhaps the West Connex model could be adapted to help cash-strapped states fund and construct this type of rail infrastructure, in the following way:
<ul>
<li>
		Build the first phase of urban rail projects based on private sector consortia bids that include the development of land around stations.
	</li>
	<li>
		Prove up the patronage income from fares and alternative funding sources like parking levies and especially <a href="http://www.committeeforperth.com.au/images/stories/NewsMedia/Publications/16-Discussion%20Paper-%20Alternative%20Funding%20Mechanisms%20for%20Public%20Transport%20in%20Perth,%202011.pdf">land value capture</a>. Put this in a special Transit Fund.
	</li>
	<li>
		Place the newly operating first phase urban rail project onto the market as a privately owned and operated rail service. Use the capital raised as the basis for the next stage of the urban rail project and repeat the process until the full network is created.
	</li>
</ul>
The key advantage in this process over the West Connex and other road projects is that rail can produce land value capture revenue. Motorways do change the value of land but it is highly dispersed and residents are not keen to live near them due to traffic and noise.
However modern electric rail focuses land value increases near to rail stations due to their market attractions. There is a willingness to pay for accessibility that translates into higher real estate values. Perth’s new Southern Rail has <a href="http://www.scirp.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?PaperID=31822">attracted 78,000 users a day</a> due to its significant speed advantages over traffic; as a result there has been a 42% growth in land values near stations over five years.
This translates into higher land-based tax revenues such as council rates, state land taxes and stamp duty, Federal capital gains and GST on land sales. These can be hypothecated into a fund along with fares and relevant other funds like parking levies.
Across the world, a range of cities have used this Tax Increment Financing method for urban rail; Delhi is looking at more than half of the potential income for their new regional rail from this source.
Australian state governments are looking at this possibility but the West Connex model suggests that instead of leaping into private rail they could test the real size of the revenue that could potentially be created by the new rail project.
Apart from lobbies that do not want to see urban public transport at any cost, there are <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/lifematters/our-22infrastructure22-prime-minister3a-the-future-of-transp/4946194">some prevailing views</a> that transit is not a 21st century economic instrument. This is because it is not seen to have a true market that could stand on its own without government.
Like toll-ways.
Peter Newman does not work for, consult to, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has no relevant affiliations.
<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/18506/count.gif" width="1">
This article was originally published at <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="http://theconversation.com/a-road-less-travelled-funding-australias-urban-rail-18506">original article</a>.
Lead image credit: <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Metro_Trains_Melbourne_Hitachi.jpg" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>
</body></html>

theconversation

A road less travelled - funding Australia's urban rail

<html><body>
By <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/jane-frances-kelly-2567" style="font-size: 12px;">Jane-Frances Kelly</a>, Grattan Institute and <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/paul-donegan-102513" style="font-size: 12px;">Paul Donegan</a>, Grattan Institute
The strength of Australia’s economy depends on how well our cities function – yet right now, it’s as if we’re driving with the handbrake on.
Cities are crucial to productivity. When they work well, they offer businesses the chance to bring together the biggest and best pool of available skilled employees.
As the Business Council of Australia recently stated in its <a href="http://www.bca.com.au/Content/102223.aspx">Action Plan for Enduring Prosperity</a>: “cities play a significant role in supporting economic growth… [they] are very much engines of commerce, science, innovation and progress.”
But the reported dismantling of the <a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/commonwealth-agencies-to-be-cut-by-abbott-government/story-fni0xqrc-1226724733088?utm_source=The%20Australian&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=editorial&amp;net_sub_uid=58372232">Major Cities Unit</a> – which provided advice on developing Australia’s 18 biggest cities to the federal government – suggests that the new government may not understand how urgently reform is needed.
<h2>
	More time in traffic, less time with family</h2>
In our biggest cities, our transport infrastructure is too often holding us back. In many areas, particularly outer suburbs, <a href="http://grattan.edu.au/publications/reports/post/productive-cities-opportunity-in-a-changing-economy/">residents can reach fewer that 10%</a> of all metropolitan jobs within a reasonable commuting time.
Indeed, the OECD’s Head of Regional Economics Dr Rudiger Ahrend recently described Sydney as being so badly connected that its economy functions more like a city of 1 million people, rather than the 4.5 million people who call it home. Opportunities are similarly limited in some outer suburbs of Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth.
Increasing congestion makes it harder and more time-consuming for businesses to connect with customers, potential employees and each other. It is perhaps even more important that time spent in traffic is also a drain on people’s family and leisure time.
<a href="http://www.melbourneinstitute.com/downloads/hilda/Bibliography/Working+Discussion+Research_Papers/2005/Flood_etal_Commuting_in_Australia.pdf">A 2005 study</a> found that more than 10% of parents in paid work spent more time commuting than they did with their children, travelling for between ten and 15 hours weekly to and from work. Eight years on from that study, as our cities continue to grow, the situation for families is getting no better.
Meanwhile public transport is stretched to the limit at peak times and many people living further from the city have little access to it at all.
<h2>
	Unleashing frustrated commuters</h2>
Poor transport links, which cut many employers off from potential employees, are a big drag on our economy, especially when employers frequently cite a lack of skilled workers as a barrier to growing their business. People poorly served by transport are likewise cut off from better job opportunities.
Many parents – particularly women – caring for younger children are especially disadvantaged. Childcare and school hours limit the time parents can spend commuting, putting them on a “spatial leash”, limiting how far they can live from their work, and in the process often drastically reducing what work they can do.
Tony Abbott was right to recognise the need when he said that he wanted to be known as an <a href="https://www.liberal.org.au/latest-news/2013/09/05/only-coalition-will-deliver-infrastructure-future">“infrastructure Prime Minister”</a>. This would be a valuable legacy.
But the Prime Minister’s view that federal government should not fund urban rail projects is troubling. Roads alone will not overcome the costs of congestion and poor access to transport.
There is limited space to expand road access to the inner suburbs and CBDs of cities like Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth – areas with the highest concentrations of the knowledge-intensive jobs that are central to strong productivity growth. Demand for public transport is growing in all these cities, but existing infrastructure can only do so much.
<h2>
	Federal funding and tax fixes</h2>
National funding of major public transport projects will be central to enabling our cities to work well and therefore to productivity growth. State governments have an important role to play in building and funding transport infrastructure. But the funding need and importance to the national economy are too great for them to do this alone.
The federal government collects most of our taxes. It must do its share of the work to help businesses to connect with more of the employees they need, and help people to spend more of their time working or with their family, rather than stuck in traffic or on overcrowded public transport.
Enabling more people to live closer to where they work can also help slow growth in congestion. Our homes are our castles, but housing is also economic infrastructure – where people live is critically important to the strength of a city’s economy.
The federal government has an indirect but substantial influence on the housing market. Buyers, builders and developers' decisions are shaped by the taxes levied by local, state and national governments.
Taxes affecting the housing market include municipal rates, stamp duty and capital gains tax, as well as settings such as negative gearing rules. Examining how these taxes shape our $1.6 trillion housing market – and how they could be improved – could make a big difference to ensuring that the housing Australians say they want is built closer to job opportunities.
There is room for improvement. Taxes and charges on buyers and sellers of housing in Australia are some of the highest in the world. The Coalition’s commitment to a tax white paper is a great first step.
Let’s hope the critical economic impact of where we live and how we get around is at the centre of reforming our tax system. If not, we can expect economic decline as our cities buckle under the weight of neglect.
The Grattan Institute’s Productive Cities report is <a href="http://grattan.edu.au/publications/reports/post/productive-cities-opportunity-in-a-changing-economy/">available here</a>, along with detailed reports on Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth.
Paul Donegan has previously worked in public strategy and policy roles for the Commonwealth and Victorian governments, including as the disability reform adviser to the Commonwealth Minister for Families, Housing, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs Jenny Macklin at the introduction of DisabilityCare Australia.
Jane-Frances Kelly does not work for, consult to, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has no relevant affiliations.
<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="//counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/18446/count.gif" width="1">
This article was originally published at <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="http://theconversation.com/stuck-in-traffic-how-to-get-our-cities-and-economy-moving-18446">original article</a>.
Lead image credit: UM Forum member Glenn Wilson.
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Stuck in traffic: how to get our cities and economy moving

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By <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/leonhard-bernold-9320" target="_blank">Leonhard Bernold</a>.

According to <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/boost-for-rail-tunnel-20130404-2h9wq">a report</a> in Fairfax media on the 5th of April, the Labor government is set to announce funding for Melbourne’s A$9 billion <a href="http://www.railpage.com.au/news/article-7974/">metro rail tunnel</a>, in addition to the A$40 million it has already contributed towards getting the project “shovel-ready”. Sounds good? Well, let’s see …

Before any shovels have broken earth, the rail tunnel is facing a <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/major-engineering-hurdles-remain-for-new-rail-tunnel-beneath-city-20130227-2f6dd" target="_blank">series of engineering challenges</a>.

These reportedly include deciding if to run the new tunnel below or above the existing <a href="http://corp.ptv.vic.gov.au/managing-victoria-s-public-transport-network/history-and-heritage/city-loop-history/">City Loop</a>, the start of construction work on the <a href="http://www.vcccproject.vic.gov.au/" target="_blank">Victorian Comprehensive Cancer Centre</a>, and the existence of the aquifers beneath and beside the Yarra River, where the proposed tunnel will run.

The project, <a href="http://www.realestatesource.com.au/melbourne-metro-train-tunnel-and-new-parkville-station-announced-by-government" target="_blank">announced in 2009</a> by the former Brumby Victorian state government, involves <a href="http://corp.ptv.vic.gov.au/projects/rail-projects/melbourne-metro/" target="_blank">a nine-kilometre tunnel</a> between South Kensington and South Yarra, with five new Metro stations, that will eventually carry up to 60,000 passengers an hour.

Previous tunnelling projects in the Melbourne area have taught us that none of the options for constructing the proposed tunnel will be a cakewalk.

But it should be reassuring to note that there are many global examples that provide evidence that this type of construction can be done safely.

While not wishing to get involved in proposing one tunnelling technique over another, it might be worthwhile to look at some of the technical issues, and the state of best practice, for tunnelling underneath a city such as Melbourne.

<h2>Going down</h2>

Any deep excavation study starts by establishing a clear understanding of the geology that has to be “broken through” and of the water level connected to the site. Adjacent water sources, such as rivers or aquifers, that are fed by a well that may be tens of kilometres away, need to be accounted for.

A detailed soil profile, based on soil samples along and next to the future tunnel line, is essential for the final design. Before those are established, geological maps and reports from previous projects in the area are extremely valuable.

For the Melbourne Metro Tunnel project, the initial source of information would be the <a href="http://dpistore.efirst.com.au/product.asp?pID=145&amp;cID=32" target="_blank">Geological Map of Melbourne</a>, SJ 55-5, published by the Victorian Department of Primary Industries.

As might be expected, the map matches the observations by the engineers involved in <a href="http://books.google.com.au/books?id=KuUtzTWzN-8C&amp;pg=PA158&amp;lpg=PA158&amp;dq=about+burnley+tunnel&amp;source=bl&amp;ots=pZFNO8xw6b&amp;sig=0LUsSSjdZD8VSZPtz7a_3rJwa2Y&amp;hl=en&amp;sa=X&amp;ei=jJg-UZ_sI8rLmgXi6IDYBA&amp;ved=0CC0Q6AEwADgU#v=onepage&amp;q&amp;f=false" target="_blank">constructing the Burnley Tunnel</a> between 1996 and 2000. They reported a weathered basalt layer sitting on top of a thick band of silt and clay.

A vertical shaft to the tunnel had to dig through a 20m layer of sand and gravel aquifer referred to as the <a href="http://dbforms.ga.gov.au/pls/www/geodx.strat_units.sch_full?wher=stratno=12317" target="_blank">Moray Street Gravels</a>. At the bottom of the aquifer starts bedrock moulded like a flat bowl and made of the <a href="http://dbforms.ga.gov.au/pls/www/geodx.strat_units.sch_full?wher=stratno=5213" target="_blank">dargile</a> marine deposits, called <a href="http://ascelibrary.org/action/showAbstract?page=875&amp;volume=110&amp;issue=7&amp;journalCode=jgendz" target="_blank">Melbourne mudstone</a> (made of silt and sand).

As the mudstone is porous, the water from the aquifer was able to leak deeper and engulf the Burnley Tunnel tube, which had to be made waterproof as a result. In addition, the tunnel walls needed to be designed to be strong enough to sustain the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fluid_statics#Hydrostatic_pressure" target="_blank">hydrostatic pressure</a> (the pressure exerted by a liquid at rest) from all sides.

Of course, these different soil types are not nicely lined up: they are folded and intertwined like a squeezed tablecloth, mixed with small-to-large stones. Finally, the top layer usually consists of a surface soil that could be from previous man-made fills.

Based on the information from these two collaborating sources we can conclude that the proposed Melbourne Metro tunnel will have to be dug below the water table through varying amounts of alluvial, marine and some weathered volcanic material that is considered “soft” ground.

<h2>Going soft</h2>

The emergence of <a href="http://www.mindfully.org/Technology/2004/Underground-Boring-Machines1sep04.htm" target="_blank">tunnel boring machines</a> (TBMs) – built by the American engineer James Robbins in the 1950s – were designed to drill through hard rock made of granite, and were ten times faster than using <a href="http://www.miningaustralia.com.au/features/the-days-of-drill-and-blast-are-over-anglogold" target="_blank">drill-and-blast method</a>. This record has since been broken many times over, while the number of accidents has decreased.

The new <a href="http://news.discovery.com/tech/worlds-largest-tunnel-drilled-under-swiss-alps.htm" target="_blank">57km tunnel through the Swiss Alps</a> – the world’s longest tunnel – for instance required four 5 megawatt TBMs with drill diameters of 8.2m.

Because soft ground TBMs can’t utilise the “squashy” tunnel walls to push themselves forward, a different “footing” was needed. A simple solution was provided by the constructed tunnel wall – made of strong pre-cast concrete elements – being installed in the back of the tunnel.

Most large cities around the world are built on top of soft soil as they have evolved from ancient trading villages near lakes or major rivers.

Increasing population sizes demanded larger sewer and drainage pipes and – more recently – subways and motorways to be built underground. The softness of the soil gave rise to a special kind of TBM called <a href="http://www.ita-aites.org/index.php?id=152" target="_blank">Earth Pressure Balance</a> (EPB) shields or machines.

We shouldn’t be surprised to learn 50% of all EPB tunnels are built below the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_table" target="_blank">water table</a>. Some of the major cities in which EPB shields <a href="https://www.herrenknecht.com/products/tunnel-boring-machines/traffic-tunnelling/epb-shield" target="_blank">have been used</a> include Shanghai, Bangkok, Rome, Naples, Barcelona, Madrid, Rio de Janeiro, Los Angeles and London.

<figure><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="260" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/z38JIqGDZVU?wmode=transparent" width="440"></iframe>

<figcaption>How TBM technology is working to build tunnels beneath London.</figcaption></figure>The key risk of any work in soft underground is the potential of soil settlements right above the tunnel caused by the re-arrangement of the soil by the tunnelling work.

Unsurprisingly, the key objective of a geotechnical engineer is to ensure that the equilibrium is preserved in such a way that no damages to surface structures occur.

This job has been made easier by recent advancements: in fact, during the past 10-15 years, EPB shield technology has added important capabilities.

Contributing to these very important enhancements are better computer models predicting the behaviour of soil under buildings; pre-tunnelling in-situ tests; grout pre-treatment or grouting of difficult sub-surface areas; new materials; and, of course, the large amount of knowledge gained from successful projects worldwide.

<h2>A perfect bore</h2>

Older metros in <a href="http://www.archives.gov.on.ca/en/explore/online/subway/construction.aspx" target="_blank">Toronto</a>, <a href="http://theboweryboys.blogspot.com.au/2010/08/new-york-city-subway-and-creation-of" target="_blank">New York</a> and <a href="http://www.boston.com/news/globe/ideas/gallery/first_big_dig/" target="_blank">Boston</a> were commonly built underneath the pavement of major thoroughfares, applying what is referred to the <a href="http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/bridge/tunnel/pubs/nhi09010/05.cfm" target="_blank">“cut-and-cover” method</a>.

As the term implies, the construction starts by cutting out an initial space, possibly covering the large opening with beams and steel plates. Excavation advances downwards while the traffic is directed around the necessary openings to lower or raise material.

Of course, trucks, cranes and concrete mixers associated with construction disrupt the pedestrian and vehicular traffic along the tunnel route. Community and business pressures have resulted in the usually-cheaper cut-and-cover option being eliminated in favour of a “<a href="http://www.damninteresting.com/the-deepest-hole/" target="_blank">deep bore</a>”, using boring machines.

<h2>Station to station</h2>

As mentioned, five new stations will be built as part of Melbourne’s Metro project, and these present challenges independent of the tunnels. Stations not only require additional space: they also need to connect to the surface. Underground access to adjacent shopping malls or office buildings is also a very attractive addition.

Circular boring machines are not designed to construct stations. While the cut-and-cover method is used, stations can also be built from the bottom up using the <a href="http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=web&amp;cd=9&amp;cad=rja&amp;sqi=2&amp;ved=0CF0QFjAI&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fweb.inonu.edu.tr%2F~mkarakus%2Fpdf%2FInsight%2520into%2520the%2520New%2520Austrian%2520Tunnelling%2520Method.pdf&amp;ei=jqQ-Ueu6MoT8iAeDuYDwAQ&amp;usg=AFQjCNGK9BhoFsqQoCxSRLC83PGSsZpUaw" target="_blank">New Austrian Tunnelling Method</a> (NATM).

The basic premise of the NATM is to create a solid roof and side walls before digging underneath the shell with large equipment.

<figure><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="260" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/LxdWlSCVqdQ?wmode=transparent" width="440"></iframe>

<figcaption>How NATM works.</figcaption></figure>Not only viable for stations and cross-cuts between two tunnels, NATM could be combined with a “cousin” of cut-and-cover to create a <a href="http://www.cif.org/noms/2002/06_-_Up-Down_Construction.pdf" target="_blank">up-down construction approach</a> where bearing walls and columns are drilled first from the top.

This is followed by constructing the visible part of the station upwards while concurrently digging underneath (upwards from the tunnel using NATM, or downwards) with the removal of the large amount of excavated material through the already existing tunnel sections previously drilled by the EPB-shields.

This would not only eliminate the need for large dump trucks on the surface but it would also speed up construction.

<h2>Light at the end of the tunnel</h2>

<figure><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="260" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/U6p8YuyVir4?wmode=transparent" width="440"></iframe>

<figcaption>Melbourne Metro – ‘Transforming Melbourne’s Rail Network’</figcaption></figure>Finding the best solution for Melbourne’s Metro tunnel will require a close collaboration of all stakeholders advised by tunnel engineers and contractors with expertise in state-of-the-art tunnelling techniques.

Regardless of which route is finally chosen, EPB shield technology appears to present the safest, most productive and economical alternative for building the tubes through Melbourne’s soft, “water-filled” underground.

With an eye to minimising the effect of large truck traffic in the city for excavating the stations, it seems combining “up-down” construction with NATM, protected by advanced grouting – and the removal of the muck through the tunnels – will provide the most desirable solution.

The politics of the project (which is now nudging for top spot in Infrastructure Australia’s <a href="https://www.nics.gov.au/Home/PriorityProjects" target="_blank">National Priority List</a>) will continue to be fascinating; but so will the technical challenges, and solutions to those challenges, going forwards.

Should you be counting on jumping aboard a train on one of the new Melbourne Metro lines any time soon? Probably not. As on so many occasions when it comes to building such large projects underground, we have to expect delays mainly caused by geology.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="//counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/12588/count.gif" width="1">

Leonhard Bernold does not work for, consult to, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has no relevant affiliations.

This article was originally published at <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="http://theconversation.com/dig-this-how-to-construct-melbournes-metro-tunnel-safely-12588" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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