Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

The Conversation

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By <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/michael-de-percy-51417">Michael de Percy</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-canberra">University of Canberra</a>.

The idea of motorists paying for the roads they use beyond tolls, fuel excise or registration fees has taken hold in Australia. A user-pays system might replace existing fees with charges based on motorists' actual use of roads. New technologies would allow charges to be applied at different rates during peak periods in the same way we pay for the use of telecommunications or electricity networks.

The <a href="http://taxreview.treasury.gov.au/content/FinalReport.aspx?doc=html/publications/Papers/Final_Report_Part_2/chapter_e3.htm">Henry Tax Review</a>, the <a href="http://competitionpolicyreview.gov.au/2015/04/14/speech20150414/">Harper Competition Review</a>, the Productivity Commission’s <a href="http://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/infrastructure/report">Public Infrastructure Inquiry</a>, last week’s <a href="http://www.nationalpolicyseries.com.au/conferences/financial-services-conference/afr-national-infrastructure-summit">AFR National Infrastructure Summit</a>, and now the <a href="http://www.9news.com.au/national/2015/06/15/00/04/tax-system-needs-bold-remodelling-ai-group">Australian Automobile Association</a>, agree it’s time. But politicians aren’t sure it will pass the <a href="http://www.news.com.au/finance/motorists-being-asked-to-consider-user-pays-model/story-e6frfm1i-1227397413591">“pub test”</a> with voters.

A user-pays system is necessary to reduce <a href="https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/28188195/perth-gridlock-to-top-nation/">congestion</a> on our roads and improve productivity into the future. We must have a debate over how, not if, we should implement a road user-pays system. But chances are political debates will send the user-pays idea down a rabbit hole before it even begins.

<h2>Can it pass the “pub test”?</h2>

No politician wants to be the one who implements a user-pays system for roads. But while the <a href="http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/transurban-to-probe-travel-habits-of-melbourne-drivers-as-part-of-road-tolls-overhaul-push/story-fni0fit3-1227278656758">jury is still out</a> on whether motorists support the idea of user-pays, the current fuel excise hits those who can <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/replace-petrol-taxes-with-payasyougo-road-charging-experts-say-20150504-1mzfay">least afford it</a> the hardest.

A well-designed user-pays system would be fairer. And road users would know exactly what they were getting for their money.

There can be no such thing as a simple debate about transport reform. A debate about user-pays must cover:

<ul>
<li>earmarking <a href="http://fueltaxinquiry.treasury.gov.au/content/backgnd/002.asp">(hypothecation)</a> road-related revenue for road construction and maintenance</li>
	<li>efficient use (or <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21654085-cash-strapped-governments-are-leaving-riches-wayside-neglected-wealth">"sweating"</a>) of our existing transport infrastructure</li>
	<li>ways of <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/business/billion-dollar-moorebank-freight-terminal-to-go-ahead-as-qube-aurizon-reach-deal-with-federal-government-20141205-120tfo">enabling intermodal freight movement</a>
</li>
	<li>public-private partnerships to take advantage of available capital and <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/reserve-bank-governor-glenn-stevens-more-infrastructure-spending-now-please-20150610-ghl1ri">ramp-up infrastructure spending</a>
</li>
	<li>efficient approaches to <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-14/france-spain-make-official-about-cancelled-east-west-contracts/6390906">competitive tendering</a> for infrastructure projects</li>
	<li>changes to the existing <a href="http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2015/05/29/greens-negotiate-on-fuel-excise">fuel excise</a>
</li>
	<li>effective ways to <a href="http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australians-living-standards-face-the-greatest-threat-in-a-generation-report-20150423-1mrppz">limit the impact</a> of user-pays on those who can least afford it</li>
	<li>new ways to capture the value added to nearby properties by infrastructure improvements</li>
	<li>better ways to <a href="http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2015/5/29/policy-politics/greens-will-accept-portion-pt-fuel-excise-deal">fund public transport</a>
</li>
</ul>
The debate will be intense. But <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/may/22/gridlock-australian-traffic-congestion-could-cost-53bn-by-2013">business-as-usual</a> will only lead to mounting congestion in our cities, decreased productivity and ultimately a decline in our standard of living. And it will be very difficult to implement the necessary reforms without a user-pays system.

<h2>Pricing and charging are not the same</h2>

Two important issues must be considered separately in the debate: pricing and charging. First, there needs to be a way to recognise the price – the amount consumers are willing to pay for using roads - relative to the costs associated with the funding, construction and maintenance of roads. Second, there needs to be a way to charge users for actually using the roads where the amount charged reflects the price.

Much of the political debate will likely focus on charging, though pricing will be the major reform. Even though voters are already paying for roads, they don’t really know how much and the contribution has little to do with their actual use of roads.

Without accurate pricing, we can only guess at how to prioritise road construction and maintenance. In the absence of such market information, simply <a href="http://www.perc.org/articles/study-building-roads-cure-congestion-exercise-futility">building more roads</a> will not address the underlying issues.

Although a simple per kilometre charge is supported by many, accurate pricing would mean different charges to reflect demand. This may require a combination of per kilometre and <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-21451245">congestion charging</a>. Also, charges would need to vary to reflect how much motorists would be willing to pay under different circumstances. A broad user-pays system might even encourage more flexible work practices as the cost of commuting becomes more transparent.

But there are many sticking points. For one thing, the Australian Motoring Enthusiasts Party is <a href="http://www.pc.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/135499/subdr149-infrastructure.pdf">opposed to any user-charges</a> for existing roads, even though road pricing may make it <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-06/regional-aged-care-and-road-funding-reform-needed/6372848">fairer for motorists in regional areas</a>.

<h2>We can’t afford another GST ‘birthday cake’</h2>

The introduction of road pricing may prove as <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-13/infrastructure-rethink-could-save-1-billion-annually/5317002">difficult</a> – if not more – than the introduction of the GST. That took <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.abc.net.au/news/2010-07-01/36428">30 years</a> to happen. Can we really afford to wait that long?

At 650 pages, the Coalition’s Fightback! policy was known as the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/unloseable-election-haunts-tony-abbott-coalition-20130906-2t9bh">“longest political suicide note in history”</a>. But more than two decades later, most of Fightback! <a href="http://www.cis.org.au/publications/issue-analysis/article/3776-the-long-march-of-fightback">has been implemented</a>.

However, the GST debate was less complex than the road user-pays debate is shaping up to be. For one thing, John Howard had the backing of the States to introduce the GST. The introduction of road pricing will require getting the States on board again, but in an area that is clearly within the States' constitutional powers.

Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s relationships with <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/premier-annastacia-palaszczuk-tells-tony-abbott-and-his-mps-they-must-be-on-team-queensland/story-fnn8dlfs-1227391345881">Queensland</a> and <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-will-be-loser-in-any-funding-fight-over-east-west-link-warns-warren-truss-20150514-gh1la0">Victoria</a> are far from congenial. And transport reform is shaping up to be a major issue for all levels of government. So it is not difficult to see why politicians “<a href="http://www.smh.com.au/business/motorists-may-have-to-pay-more-to-cut-congestion-20150522-gh7lib">are wary of a voter backlash </a>” over transport reform.

<h2>Media one-liners will hinder reform</h2>

To make matters worse, the complexity of transport reform will be more difficult to explain in media-grabbing one-liners than the impact of the GST on a birthday cake. And history suggests that another “birthday cake” incident has the potential to put transport reform on hold for several years.

We cannot put all of the responsibility on our politicians. Sensible debate with large-scale community support for reform is essential. Otherwise, achieving transport reform will make the implementation of the GST look like a political cake-walk.

In the meantime, whether user-pays happens now or in the future, the longer we wait, the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/may/22/gridlock-australian-traffic-congestion-could-cost-53bn-by-2013">more we will pay</a>.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/43259/count.gif" width="1">

<a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/michael-de-percy-51417">Michael de Percy</a> is Senior Lecturer in Political Science at <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-canberra">University of Canberra</a>. This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="http://theconversation.com/road-users-must-pay-sooner-rather-than-later-43259">original article</a>.

Lead image credit: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Freeway_(Victoria)">Wikipedia</a>
</body></html>

theconversation

Road users must pay, sooner rather than later

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By <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/matthew-beck-90705">Matthew Beck</a> and <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/michiel-bliemer-14639">Michiel Bliemer</a> (<a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney">University of Sydney)</a>.

Congestion is a major source of frustration for road users and has worsened over time in most cities. Different solutions have been proposed, such as introducing congestion charging (a favourite of transport economists) or investing in public transport. One solution that is most <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/media-releases-premier/busting-congestion-300-million-create-gateway-south">often</a> put forward is to <a href="http://www.danielandrews.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Victorian-Labors-Project-10000.pdf">build</a> more roads, but does this approach work?

A recent <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/jimgorzelany/2014/03/04/the-most-traffic-jammed-cities-in-the-u-s/">study</a> in the United States identified Los Angeles, Honolulu and San Francisco as the top three most gridlocked cities in the United States. All of these cities use almost exclusively road-based solutions to transport citizens.

While China has increased its <a href="https://www.kpmg.com/cn/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/Documents/Transport-Logistics-in-China-201112.pdf">expressway network</a> from 16,300 km in the year 2000 to around 70,000 km in 2010, the average commute time in <a href="http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2014-09/29/content_18679171.htm">Beijing</a> for 2013 was 1 hour and 55 minutes, up 25 minutes from just the year before.

Why, then, do residents of these cities with large amounts of road capacity, not live in a driving utopia?

<h2>Induced demand</h2>

The first concept you need to get your head around is called induced demand.

Think about the street on which you live. If a new road makes driving to work quicker, you may benefit from that, but this reduced travel time might be enough to encourage two other people in your street to start driving; and two more people in the next street; and two more people in the street after that; and so on. Very quickly the drive to work takes just as long as it ever did.

In transportation, this well-established response is known in various contexts as the Downs-Thomson Paradox, The Pigou-Knight-Downs Paradox or the Lewis-Mogridge Position: a new road may provide motorists with some level of respite from congestion in the short term but almost all of the benefit from the road will be lost in the longer term.

Further, while more roads may solve congestion locally, more traffic on the road network may result in more congestion elsewhere. In Sydney, for example, the <a href="http://www.westconnex.com.au/">WestConnex</a> may improve traffic conditions on Parramatta Road, but may worsen congestion in the city.

<h2>Weakest links</h2>

Congestion is determined by the weakest links in the road network. If road capacity expansion does not involve widening of these bottleneck links, congestion may simply move to another part of the network without solving the congestion problem. Moreover, it could potentially make congestion even worse.

The Braess Paradox is a famous example in which building new roads in the wrong location can lead to longer travel times for everyone, even without induced demand, because such new roads may lead more car drivers to the weakest links in the network. The reverse may also be true: removing roads may even improve traffic conditions.

This paradox occurs because each driver chooses the route that is quickest without considering the implications his or her choice has on other drivers. Car drivers only care about the number of vehicles in the queue in front of them and do not care about vehicles queueing behind them. This is a classic problem in game theory, very similar to the type for which <a href="http://www.nobelprize.org/mediaplayer/index.php?id=429">John Nash</a> was awarded a Nobel Prize.

<h2>What does the data say?</h2>

One US <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.101.6.2616">study</a> has shown a strong relationship between the amount of new road length and the total amount of kilometres travelled in US cities, a finding the authors of that study termed “the fundamental law of road congestion”.

Similar findings are reported in <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856411001728">Spain</a> and in the <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2FBF00166218">United States</a>, where even major road capacity increases can actually lead to little or <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01621459.2014.956871#.VRpXEPmUePY">no reduction</a> in network traffic densities. It has also been found to exist in <a href="http://www.ejtir.tudelft.nl/issues/2012_03/pdf/2012_03_02.pdf">Europe</a>, where neglecting induced demand has led to biases in appraising of environmental impacts as well as the economic viability of proposed road projects.

In <a href="http://www.dtpli.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0013/230107/Zeibots-EWS.pdf">Sydney</a>, there is similar evidence from traffic volumes crossing the harbour. The Sydney Harbour Bridge was carrying a stable traffic volume of around 180,000 vehicles per day from 1986 to 1991. The Sydney Harbour Tunnel opened in 1992, and the total volume of traffic crossing the harbour increased in 1995 to almost 250,000 vehicles per day. This 38% increase in traffic can be attributed to induced demand and not to population growth (which was around <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/3105.0.65.0012014?OpenDocument">4% during this period</a>).

Empirical observations have also confirmed the existence of the <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2FBF01918335#page-1">Braess Paradox</a>. For example, in 1969 a new road was built in Stuttgart, Germany, which did not improve the traffic conditions. After closing the road again, congestion <a href="http://link.springer.com/book/10.1007%2F978-3-642-95121-3">decreased</a>.

Similar observations in which road closure led to improved traffic conditions have been observed in <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1740-9713.2013.00662.x/pdf">New York City</a>, where upon closing 42nd street (a major crosstown street in Manhattan) it was observed that traffic was significantly less congested than average.

A <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10683-013-9378-4#page-1">recent</a> experimental study confirmed that this paradox still exists by showing that expanding road capacity can result in worse traffic conditions for everybody.

The theory of induced demand is accepted by a large majority, but not by everyone.

For example, authors of a 2001 <a href="https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v33y2001i12p1579-1585">paper</a> have argued that induced demand does not exist. However, UK researchers Goodwin and Noland have <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/0003684032000089872#.VRzO5TuUf-U">criticised</a> this study.

In isolation, building more roads can certainly improve traffic conditions but these effects may only be local and only in the short run. Congestion may become worse in other parts of the network and experience shows that spare road capacity is quickly filled up with new cars.

Even without the extra road users that new roads create, if the new roads are built in the wrong locations congestion may actually become worse simply because of the way people behave. Roads alone do not solve congestion in the long term; they are only one (problematic) tool in a transport management toolkit.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/39508/count.gif" width="1">

This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="http://theconversation.com/do-more-roads-really-mean-less-congestion-for-commuters-39508">original article</a>.

Lead image credit: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Congestion_on_Eastern_Freeway,_Melbourne.JPG">Wikipedia</a>.
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Do more roads really mean less congestion for commuters?

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By <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/graeme-hodge-262">Graeme Hodge</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/monash-university">Monash University</a>.

Two cheers for resolving the East-West toll road project mess. The agreement reached by the Andrews Government in Victoria to pay the consortium $339 million for its bid costs and early work is unprecedented, but also honourable and transparent. It was always going to involve considerable pain on all sides, because it was created by Labor, by the Coalition and by the consortium in the first place. But what a tangled government-business ‘partnership’!

Signed contract deals, a <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-05/east-west-link-victorian-opposition-releases-secret-side-letter/6072904">hurried side letter</a>, four court challenges and an election fought and won over whether the five kilometre East-West toll road was good for Victorians or not… The signed business contract said “yes”, the democratic verdict was “no!” All the hallmarks of a comedy show on television. But it was our reality; $339 million down the drain. Opportunistic behaviour on all sides fanned along by a bunch of voracious bankers and eager businesses counting their future revenues.

<h2>Payout is lesser of two evils</h2>

Perhaps this agreement is the lesser of two evils, though. After all, with a benefit cost ratio for the project of just 0.45, after spending $10 billion we would also be losing around $5.5 billion straight down the drain. No-one in their right mind would “invest” in such a massive waste. In this respect, the price tag of only a few hundred million dollars to stop this financial catastrophe may be cheap.

But let’s talk about the bigger picture here. The past two Victorian elections have resulted in huge Public-Private Partnership controversies - firstly over a $5 billion desalination plant (which the conservatives apparently tried to renegotiate) and the second over the East-West toll road (which Labor, smelling the blood of infrastructure politics, did renegotiate.)

Both episodes have put into doubt the State’s professional planning capacity and resulted in arguably illegitimate project proposals being implemented through long-term privately funded infrastructure contracts.

<h2>Stop burning money</h2>

A new approach is needed so that we can make better infrastructure decisions. It is only by doing this that we will avoid burning so much of our money on stupid “Taj Mahals”. Business Councils can also play a role here by stopping their self-serving calls for new projects to replace the current failed ones. Perhaps they could devote their energy to ensure current businesses pay their tax bills here instead of sheltering in faraway tax havens?

Contract renegotiations of this size are extraordinary. And they are also tough because of our dual expectations. On the one hand, we expect government to maintain commercial legitimacy, drive a hard deal in our name, and behave in legally responsible ways. And as part of this we assume that governments believe in the sanctity of commercial contracts. After all, private contracts are the building block of the economy.

But on the other hand, we equally expect governments to take their democratic mandate and carry out policies taken into an election. In big projects such as the Desal plant and the East-West toll road, there is a clash of expectations. We want government to be both commercially sensible on our behalf, and democratically responsible on our behalf.

<h2>Legitimate projects, not ministerial favourites</h2>

Of course governments have always been able to sign us up to long-term projects and long-term debts - whether aluminium plants, hospitals or dams. And we will never take all the politics out of public infrastructure projects - this would be naive.

We do though need governments to put infrastructure priorities into a bipartisan process in which legitimate projects gravitate towards the top (instead of just the Minister’s personal favourites), undertake competent economic assessments (instead of back-of-the-envelope trumped-up business cases worth less than the napkin on which they were developed) and seriously consider whether dozens of smaller expenditures are likely to be better than the “Taj Mahal” mentality that government egos still seem to thrust on Victorian citizens.

It would also be better if governments could leave aside their <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/911b-melbourne-metro-swanston-street-project-to-go-ahead-daniel-andrews-20150416-1mm3wh">love of long-term infrastructure contracts</a>, private finance and commercial secrets and level with us. We are not mugs. Citizens expect to know what governments are doing in their name, how they are behaving with the power they temporarily hold and how the relationship they have with businesses is being employed.

<h2>Big secrets?</h2>

Can this be solved through legislation stopping governments from signing contracts before elections? I doubt it. Business and politics are both incredibly innovative in getting around new rules. But let’s try anyway. Big infrastructure projects imply big decisions, with big risks. Public risks.

Our current Victorian PPP habit, though seems to imply big secrets, and big “success” fees, even for failed public projects! These are particularly galling. But together, these form a cocktail of complex ongoing deals that could cripple the state if we keep going like this. If we can’t improve our infrastructure priority planning, our assessments, our transparency and bipartisan discourse we will repeat the recent history many times over in coming decades. So the real task here is to take another road.

Independent institutionalised professional planning needs to be reintroduced into the picture, not sidelined. Consultation needs to be undertaken. And priorities need to be re-established so that debates around medium and long-term project options, alternatives and relative timing can occur. Not just the immediate personal choices of ministers as if they were purchasing something in a retail shop.

We need to get on and re-professionalise for a more democratic approach to medium and long-term infrastructure success. And quickly.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/40232/count.gif" width="1">

This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="http://theconversation.com/east-west-link-shows-miserable-failure-of-planning-process-40232">original article</a>.
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East-West Link shows miserable failure of planning process

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By <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/joe-hurley-157161">Joe Hurley</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/rmit-university">RMIT University</a> and <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/elizabeth-taylor-97922">Elizabeth Taylor</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne">University of Melbourne</a>.

Research into the way cities do – or do not – work can make a critical contribution to urban policy and practice. Yet our <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/08111146.2014.994741">recent research</a> finds that urban policy practitioners rarely engage with applied urban research outputs. This is despite practitioners identifying research as an important factor in good practice, policy and professional development.

In related disciplines such as urban health and natural resource management, the role of research in policy development is more accepted and embedded. But in planning policy the research-practice disconnect is large and entrenched.

There is no shortage of applied urban research that seeks to influence practice – for example, the <a href="https://www.be.unsw.edu.au/research-centres-and-clusters/city-futures/soac">State of Australian Cities conference</a> series. Recent research on <a href="http://www.envplan.com/abstract.cgi?id=a140124p">community engagement</a> in plan-making processes and planning policy mechanisms for <a href="http://www.envplan.com/abstract.cgi?id=a140124p">affordable housing</a> provide examples where a significant contribution to practice could be made. We argue that engagement with such research is often critical for good practice outcomes, but find there are systemic barriers to this.

Many of these barriers stem from the nature of urban scholarship in Australia. Here, critical theoretical scholarship, published in high-ranking international journals, is most rewarded by institutional settings.

In the case of applied research, the task of communicating findings to professional audiences is not easy or particularly well rewarded institutionally. Researchers lack the drivers and often skills to <a href="https://theresearchwhisperer.wordpress.com/2015/03/03/research-and-policy/">disseminate their work</a>. Outlets such as The Conversation are starting to break down this barrier, challenging academics such as ourselves to communicate better to a wider practice audience.

There are similarly significant barriers on the practice side. Professional planners are time-poor when it comes to engaging with research outputs. In a minefield of gruesome-sounding mixed metaphors, planners we interviewed described themselves as working in “sausage factories”, with “cookie cutter” outcomes and surviving “in the trenches with the bullets over their head”.

<h2>What information do planners use?</h2>

Much of the research base that could inform and improve practice is locked behind fee-for-access paywalls and rarely accessed by professionals.

Even when easily available, research outputs are often written in ways that make distilling practical and localised implications difficult or time-consuming. Practitioners reported being intimidated by academic language, preferring succinct and targeted information with which to navigate the practice landscape.

So where do urban policy practitioners get their information from? In the words of one respondent:

<blockquote>
Well, Google is a good place to start.
</blockquote>

Common sources of information mentioned included mainstream media, issue blogs and professional publications and networks.

Planners rely extensively on practice networks, which are valued for making connections and for finding out “what other people are doing”. Professional planners value “accepted knowledge” and the views of experts.

In this context, experts are most often identified as professionals with significant practice experience. While not wanting to dismiss the value of such sources, the lack of engagement with urban research is notable.

<figure><img alt="" src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/74019/width668/image-20150306-3324-1u7ea4o.jpg"><figcaption>Communities may have to live with the consequences of poor, and poorly informed, urban planning for a long time. <a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/lydiashiningbrightly/3000574028/">Flickr/Lydia</a>, <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a>.</figcaption></figure><h2>Planners pay attention to the politics</h2>

The bias toward popular media is partly a product of planners having to be accountable to public and political viewpoints:

<blockquote>
It’s important for us to know the rubbish as well, if it’s influential.
</blockquote>

In this, the significant consideration for the practitioner is seemingly not what is written but that someone else – their councillor, minister, client or community – will have read it.

It is important to acknowledge the <a href="https://theconversation.com/without-a-national-cities-policy-who-joins-all-the-planning-dots-24634">political nature and participatory environment</a> of planning practice and the limitations this can place on research engagement. As a local government planner said:

<blockquote>
My client is my councillors. I have a brand-new market every three years.
</blockquote>

In this environment of politicised consensus-driven decision-making, the role of research is not straightforward. However, politics alone cannot excuse overlooking evidence and scholarship.

Our research reveals a lack of resources to help interpret research and adapt findings to local practice needs. While consultants and some arms of government undertake this task, it is not widespread.

One means of helping to bridge the divide is to invest in making research outputs more accessible and targeted to a practitioner audience, via dedicated <a href="http://www.rtpi.org.uk/knowledge/research/planning-research-exchange/">research-practice exchange</a> forums and vehicles. This would require better communication between key organisations in the sector, such as university research centres, industry peak bodies and government agencies.

Exchange between research and practice in urban policy and planning is, in our view, inadequate. A culture shift is arguably required in both researcher and practitioner communities to better understand, value and facilitate effective information exchange.

Cities matter. For better cities, there is a pressing need to bring academia and practitioners together in the urban policy arena. <img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/38234/count.gif" width="1">

This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="http://theconversation.com/not-a-lot-of-people-read-the-stuff-how-planning-defies-good-theory-38234">original article</a>.

Lead image credit: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_West_Link,_Melbourne">Wikipedia</a>.
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'Not a lot of people read the stuff': how planning defies good theory

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By <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/alexa-delbosc-147245">Alexa Delbosc</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/monash-university">Monash University</a>.

Australians have long had a love affair with the car. Car ownership and use has <a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/2007/wp_071.aspx">increased every decade</a> since its introduction to Australia. The car has fundamentally shaped the urban form of Australian cities – not just through investments in roads, highways, bridges and tunnels but also by facilitating the spread of Australia’s suburbs and activity centres. The car has provided significant social and economic benefits and helped generations of young adults break free from their parents.

Recently, however, Australia’s love affair with the car has begun to cool. For the first time in Australia’s history, young adults are becoming less likely to get a car license than their parents. Where baby boomers couldn’t get enough of their cars, an increasing number of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennials">millennials</a> (the generation born from the mid-1980s onwards) have had enough of them.

<h2>Putting the brakes on driver licensing</h2>

In Australia, the decline in driver licensing has been recorded in New South Wales and Victoria. Australia is one of the few countries that doesn’t compile national licensing rates. In Victoria, the decline has been slow but steady. Licensing rates for people under 25 have dropped from 77% to 66% since 2000-01.

<figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/67321/area14mp/image-20141216-24291-1ga2ykt.png"><img alt="" src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/67321/width668/image-20141216-24291-1ga2ykt.png"></a></figure>Australia isn’t alone in this trend. A <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01441647.2013.801929">review</a> of youth licensing rates in 13 countries found declines in the US, Canada, UK, Japan and much of Europe.

All over the developed world millennials are turning their back on the car. But why is this happening and what does it mean for Australia’s future?

<h2>What’s driving this trend?</h2>

Research into this trend is still unfolding, but a range of explanations are being explored. Recent changes in driver licensing regulations cannot be overlooked. All Australian states and territories have gradually introduced more restrictions on learner permits and driving licenses. Most notably, depending on the jurisdiction, millennials are now required to log up to 120 hours of supervised driving before applying for a provisional license.

How many baby boomers would have put off getting a license if they were expected to spend that much time driving with their parents? However, this explanation cannot fully explain this shift. In Victoria, the decline in youth licensing was documented at least as far back as 2000, seven years before the 120 hours requirement came into force.

So if driver licensing regulations aren’t all to blame, what else could be turning millennials away from the car? One complex but significant shift in recent years is how the life course of millennials has changed compared to previous generations.

In the past, many young Australians quickly transitioned from secondary school to full-time work, marriage, mortgage and children. Today’s young Australians are more likely to attend tertiary studies, work part-time, live with parents and delay marriage, mortgage and children. All of these changes mean that young adults have less need for a car in their teens, but also have less money to pay for one.

This raises the question of whether the cost of motoring has discouraged young adults from getting a car. This is a more complex issue as even though fuel prices have certainly increased in recent years, overall the relative cost of motoring has actually decreased.

Finally, there’s some suggestion that the attitudes and lifestyle of millennials have caused a cultural shift where the car is no longer king. The car has long held a cherished place in Australian culture, especially for the baby boomer generation. But recent <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X13001716">research</a> suggests that for millennials, the car is less a symbol of status and pride and more a symbol of adult responsibility – a responsibility that not everyone is ready for.

In the words of one 22-year-old research participant:

<blockquote>
A car to me symbolises commitment, financial responsibility and to some extent becoming an adult.
</blockquote>

Instead, it has been suggested that gadgets and mobile phones have replaced the car as the new status symbol, hobby and means to keep in touch with friends.

There is no doubt that these technologies are a major part of the lifestyle of many millennials, but the jury is still out as to whether technology is reducing the need for face-to-face contact (and therefore reducing the need for a car). Preliminary research suggests that young people who maintain frequent contact with friends through technology are actually more likely, not less, to see their friends in person.

<h2>Where to from here?</h2>

There are many factors that influence how young adults travel, and further research is needed to better understand these decisions.

There are still important questions that need to be answered. Are these young adults forgoing cars entirely, or merely delaying a few years before they get behind the wheel? Are young adults actively choosing a more sustainable lifestyle, or are they being forced out of cars due to unwanted circumstances? The societal benefits of fewer cars are obvious, but are car-less millennials suffering significant negative consequences?

We can react to this change in car use in one of two ways. We can sit in the back seat and passively enjoy the benefits of fewer cars on the road, slowing the growth of emissions and congestion by a small amount. Or we can take the wheel and actively support this change, putting in place policies and structures to support and encourage young adults who are deciding between L-plates or a new bicycle, car keys or an annual public transport pass.

Once someone shapes their life, work and home around the car it is far, far harder to persuade them not to use it.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/35468/count.gif" width="1">

This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="http://theconversation.com/why-are-young-australians-turning-their-back-on-the-car-35468">original article</a>.

Lead image credit: <a href="http://www.3aw.com.au/news/racv-rejects-suggestions-for-pplate-age-to-be-dropped-to-17-in-victoria-20150213-13eg1d">3AW</a>.
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Why are young Australians turning their back on the car?

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By <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/matthew-burke-1677">Matthew Burke</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/griffith-university">Griffith University</a>.

Australian governments heavily subsidise car, bus and train commuting, but not cycling. Yet a <a href="http://www.heartfoundation.org.au/news-media/Media-Releases-2014/Pages/australian-workers-support-national-ride-work-scheme.aspx">new survey</a> shows many workers would consider riding to work if they got paid for it, and most would even support it if they didn’t participate, because of the wider benefits for cutting road congestion.

The list of existing transport subsidies is long. Fuel tax receipts have fallen so low that they now fail to pay for road-building programs as they once did. Company car concessions remain one of the largest distortions in the Australian tax code and a <a href="https://theconversation.com/closing-the-company-car-tax-loophole-is-an-obvious-budget-winner-26045">severe hit to the federal budget</a>. Many employers provide free car parking at great cost, and few jurisdictions impose parking levies. Fare subsidies on Australian public transport are <a href="https://theconversation.com/public-transport-has-been-let-down-by-our-reluctance-to-pay-for-it-27745">very high</a> relative to other countries, especially considering how poorly our rail networks perform.

The welcome rise of bicycle commuting seen in all our major central business districts over the past two decades is helping save all city workers from congestion on the roads and crushes on trains and buses. Getting more Australians cycling to work provides considerable health, economic and environmental advantages for government, society and the riders themselves, and the infrastructure to provide for it is, relatively speaking, extremely cheap. The question is: how do we get more people to do it?

<h2>Car comforts</h2>

Price factors influence Australians' travel choices. Even though cycling is one of the least expensive ways to travel, the concessions for motoring remain so large that it is hard to convince many Australians to <a href="https://www.bicyclenetwork.com.au/general/programs/178/">ride to work</a> even where high-quality cycling infrastructure exists.

As cycling conditions improve in our cities, and bike parking is provided at more and more workplaces, can small financial incentives help encourage the next wave of increase in bike commuting?

Many places overseas have introduced financial incentives to tilt price signals back towards cycling (although in many cases the subsidies still remain skewed in favour of motoring). France, Belgium and the Netherlands have all introduced small direct subsidy schemes that allow employers to offer <a href="https://theconversation.com/paying-commuters-to-get-on-their-bikes-is-not-enough-28998">tax-free payments to employees</a> worth a few cents for each kilometre of bike commuting.

<a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01441640500184385#.VE3DQ4uUdPQ">Research suggests</a> that financial incentives have played a key role in the relative success of urban cycling in these countries. Meanwhile, in car-dominated America, a small Seattle-based program that gives employees financial incentives for walking or cycling has also <a href="http://www.researchgate.net/publication/256999070_Parking_management_financial_subsidies_to_alternatives_to_drive_alone_and_commute_mode_choices_in_Seattle">encouraged non-motorised commuting</a> in that city.

<h2>Getting Australians on their bikes</h2>

The <a href="http://www.heartfoundation.org.au/Pages/default.aspx">National Heart Foundation</a> and the <a href="http://www.bikeoz.com.au/index.php/cycling-promotion-fund">Cycling Promotion Fund</a> have <a href="http://www.heartfoundation.org.au/news-media/Media-Releases-2014/Pages/australian-workers-support-national-ride-work-scheme.aspx">recently surveyed</a> more than 2,000 Australian workers aged 25-54 who do not currently ride to work, and who live within 15 km of their workplace.

Survey respondents were asked about three types of potential incentive for bicycle commuting: direct subsidies to employees; indirect subsidies via employers; and tax deductions to buy bicycles for commuting purposes.

The results are striking. Around half the respondents said that financial incentives would encourage them to take up bicycle commuting, while 80% said they supported the implementation of such incentives, regardless of whether they rode a bicycle to work themselves.

We must view these figures with some caution – it is one thing to respond to a telephone survey, and quite another to actually go through with it and change your daily behaviour.

But the strength of the response on the impact of very small incentives is extremely encouraging. It suggests incentives could be useful in helping some non-cyclists make the crucial transition from thinking about cycling to work, to doing it on a daily basis.

Yet perhaps an even more obvious policy change for Australia would be to reduce the disproportionate incentives for motoring, which increase proportionally every year as fuel taxes decline. Even shifting from a company car benefit to a scheme that subsidises business travel by any mode would be preferable to the current arrangement.

If that is a political non-starter, as seems the case at the moment, then a very modest scheme to support cycling to work seems prudent. As the Heart Foundation and Cycling Promotion Fund’s data shows, Australians are both ready to respond and supportive of the idea.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/33468/count.gif" width="1">

This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="http://theconversation.com/we-subsidise-road-and-rail-commuters-why-not-bikes-too-33468">original article</a>.

Lead image credit: Wikipedia.
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We subsidise road and rail commuters - why not bikes too?

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By <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-newman-1858">Peter Newman</a>, Curtin University.

Labor’s state election victory in Victoria has fatally undermined Melbourne’s most controversial tunnel, the now-doomed <a href="http://www.linkingmelbourne.vic.gov.au/east-west-link">East-West Link</a>, with new Premier Daniel Andrews pledging to rip up the contracts for the project.

His decision is a victory for anyone who values 21st-century urban thinking over the outdated car-first mentality.

It’s also a financial relief, because – as the project’s back story shows – the East-West Link was always more about politics than economics.

<h2>Courting cars</h2>

For many years, the only groups calling for a tunnel to link Melbourne’s Eastern and Citylink freeways were the <a href="http://www.racv.com.au/wps/wcm/connect/racv/Internet/Primary/home">RAC of Victoria</a> and <a href="https://www.vicroads.vic.gov.au/">VicRoads</a>. The problem was that the tunnel never made economic sense when it was just a freight project, yet most attention in the transport planning system was on public transport, where demand was growing rapidly. The East-West tunnel needed a large dose of cars to justify it.

Enter Tony Abbott, who <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/tollfree-eastwest-link-preferable-tony-abbott-20130902-2t0ff">pledged A$1.5 billion</a> before last year’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/federal-election-2013">federal election</a> for the East-West plan, arguing that Australians love their cars and public transport was not in his federal knitting.

The East-West project grew in concept and soon became a massive capital cost, with the price tag for the whole plan, including the western extension to Melbourne’s port, threatening to <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/state-budget-2014-major-road-and-rail-projects-worth-24b-to-transform-melbourne-20140506-zr5mj">hit A$10 billion</a> and swamp the transport budget.

Meanwhile, in the waning days of the first <a href="http://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au">Infrastructure Australia</a> (on which I was privileged to serve for four years), it became obvious that the East-West tunnel and Sydney’s <a href="http://www.westconnex.com.au">WestConnex</a> would never be subject to the scrutiny of our process. They were to be seen as purely political projects and the case for their going ahead would depend on their popularity, not on value for money.

<h2>Why tunnelling Melbourne was a bad idea</h2>

The old shibboleth that building roads is vital for improving the economy is no longer true. Economic growth has divorced itself from car dependence (my new book with <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jeff-kenworthy-15708">Jeff Kenworthy</a>, <a href="http://www.bibliovault.org/BV.book.epl?ISBN=9781610914635">The End of Automobile Dependence</a>, traces the fall of the empire of car-based planning).

Growth in the Victorian and Australian economies now depends on the growth in “knowledge economy” jobs. These jobs at the creative, productive, innovative edge of our economy are now firmly enmeshed in the dense centres of our cities.

As the US urban economists Ed Glaeser and Richard Florida have <a href="/news">shown</a>, the knowledge economy depends on close interactions between creative people and those who can deliver projects. This work requires intensive spaces in cities, which in turn need intensive modes of transport to enable them. This means that rail, cycling and walking are critical to the knowledge economy. Although heavily into digital communications, knowledge economy workers need face-to-face contact and are now shifting back into central and inner city locations to optimise this process.

In contrast, cars and trucks are dispersive modes of transport, and are needed for the consumption economy. These jobs are important too, but are essentially based in the dispersed spaces of the suburbs. These jobs are not the ones we are seeking as much as those in the knowledge economy, because they do not drive productivity growth as effectively.

It is no wonder that around the world, we are seeing <a href="http://www.scirp.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?PaperID=38472#.VH1FI2SUdgA">declining car use per capita and growing public transport use</a>, as well as a widespread return to formerly neglected inner cities.

The six most walkable US cities have <a href="http://urbanful.org/2014/06/20/walkable-cities/">38% higher gross domestic product than the national average</a>. Cities now compete on new measures such as <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/27/opinion/sunday/now-coveted-a-walkable-convenient-place?_r=0">walkability</a> and <a href="http://www.livablecities.org/blog/value-rankings-and-meaning-livability">livability</a>. Governments everywhere are aiming to build quality rail projects and make city centres more human in scale. Even <a href="http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/canberras-780m-light-rail-line-gets-final-go-ahead-business-case-to-be-released-20140915-10gzr3">Canberra</a> and <a href="http://www.parracity.nsw.gov.au/work/business_in_parramatta/strategy/solving_transport_problems/light_rail_for_western_sydney">Paramatta</a> are joining in, as they work out how to build light rail.

Melbourne has one of the most attractive city centres in the world for knowledge economy jobs. It needs to ensure that this is not lost by tipping more cars into its walkable centre. Instead it needs to encourage commuting by rail, bike and on foot.

<h2>Change in the air</h2>

Victoria’s people have now spoken. The East-West Link will be scrapped, and should be replaced by more sensible transport planning. Melbourne does need to improve east-west access for people and freight, but it should not be beyond us to find some solutions that do not break the bank.

Clearly there are plans for upgrading rail access through several proposed rail projects, including the <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-19/melbourne-rail-a-better-deal-than-east-west-toll-planners-say/5902268">original Melbourne Metro plan</a>, and the <a href="http://ptv.vic.gov.au/assets/PTV/PTV%20docs/Melbourne-Airport/Melbourne-Airport-Rail-Link-Study-Overview.pdf">Airport Rail Link</a>. <a href="http://ptv.vic.gov.au/projects/rail-projects/doncaster-rail-study">Doncaster Rail</a> should remain on the table, hopefully not for another 100 years, as it is a simple and direct way to move passengers east-west.

The freight system seems to be amenable to much simpler concepts than the East-West Tunnel, like those <a href="http://habitattrustmelbourne.org.au">presented by the Habitat Trust</a>, using several inland rail interchange facilities.

The <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.thefifthestate.com.au/spinifex/bays-precinct-five-principles-emerge-from-summit/69895">same principles</a> should lead New South Wales to modify the Connex West project, especially where it spills traffic into Sydney’s central and inner areas. Such traffic “solutions” actually harm the economy of inner urban areas, burying investment opportunities under bitumen for parking and road-widening, and congesting areas that already have too many cars.

The public can sense that we have to update the way we travel and how we build cities so they are not car-dependent. The road-building brigade needs to take a deep breath and see that their plans are old-fashioned. Perhaps the legacy of the East-West Tunnel will be that such projects will never again be foisted on the Australian public.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/34914/count.gif" width="1">

Peter Newman does not work for, consult to, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has no relevant affiliations.

This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="http://theconversation.com/the-east-west-link-is-dead-a-victory-for-21st-century-thinking-34914">original article</a>.
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The East-West Link is dead - a victory for 21st-century thinking

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By <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/wendy-walls-141515">Wendy Walls</a>, University of Melbourne and <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/joseph-barrins-141300">Joseph Barrins</a>, University of Melbourne.

Heatwaves — Australia’s <a href="http://australia.gov.au/about-australia/australian-story/natural-disasters">biggest natural killers</a> — are getting <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-council-heatwaves-are-getting-hotter-and-more-frequent-23253">more frequent and hotter</a> thanks to climate change. One day cities such as Melbourne may see unprecedented heat, perhaps 48C or higher.

But our research shows that smart urban design can create refuges in cities that could feel more than 10C cooler, and without increasing energy use.

Recently the Victorian Auditor-General released a report that found Victoria is not adequately prepared to deal with <a href="http://www.audit.vic.gov.au/reports_and_publications/latest_reports/2014-15/20141014-heatwave-management.aspx">heat disasters</a>.

While this report focused on the ability of our services to respond to and communicate about extreme heat events, it also raises an important question: how do we better prepare our cities for <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-council-heatwaves-are-getting-hotter-and-more-frequent-23253">more frequent and hotter</a> heat waves?

<h2>Record-breaking heat</h2>

In Australia, 2013 was the <a href="http://theconversation.com/human-hands-are-all-over-australias-hottest-ever-year-32267">hottest year on record</a>. Globally, 2014 is on course to <a href="http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/2014-on-track-to-be-hottest-year-on-record/">break records again</a>.

With increasing predicted temperatures and the impact of the urban heat island effect (where urban space is much hotter than surrounding areas) to consider, there is increasing pressure on Australian cities to support the health of their populations during extreme heat events.

In Victoria, statistics show that the last two heat waves, in 2009 and 2014, caused as many as <a href="http://www.audit.vic.gov.au/publications/20141014-Heatwave-Management/20141014-Heatwave-Management.pdf">500 deaths</a>. (see also <a href="http://www.climatecouncil.org.au/uploads/9901f6614a2cac7b2b888f55b4dff9cc.pdf">here</a>). This figure is set to <a href="http://www.climatechange.gov.au/climate-change/climate-science/climate-change-impacts/victoria">quadruple between now and 2050</a> (see also <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/">here</a>)

Whilst it’s important to make sure our emergency services are able to cope in the best way possible, this is a reactive response that will help manage crisis situations. Reinforcing the electricity grid to make sure that outages are minimised is also valuable.

However, proactively dealing with mitigation of extreme heat can take the pressure off services, minimise expense and most importantly, reduce heat stress.

<h2>How do we mitigate extreme heat?</h2>

There is an important body of work on reducing the urban heat island effect, particularly through urban greening infrastructure and building performance. A notable example of green infrastructure is the <a href="http://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au/Sustainability/UrbanForest/Documents/Urban_Forest_Strategy.pdf">Melbourne Urban Forest Strategy</a>.

Urban forests have been found to be very effective methods for city heat mitigation. However, vegetation takes a long time to grow and may not be as appropriate in every part of a city, so we need a greater diversity of solutions.

It is important to design at the street level scale: particularly in those places used the most. The spaces between buildings are necessary to urban functionality and where people spend most outdoor time.

A recent study in Sydney found that streetscapes have <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/jsd/article/viewFile/35128/20347">higher minimum temperatures than rooftops</a> indicating the importance of cooling this highly used part of the city. Streets, train stations, even car parks can be designed to contribute towards much cooler experiences.

<h2>Keeping cool on the streets</h2>

Research on urban microclimates from around the world has shown that we can control the thermal comfort of smaller spaces, <a href="http://www.vcccar.org.au/sites/default/files/publications/VCCCAR%20Green%20Infrastructure%20Guide%20Final.pdf">without using more energy</a> (see also <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096014811400336X">here</a> and <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169204613002399">here</a>). This is not just about reducing the absolute temperature, it’s also about making people feel comfortable.

The experience of temperature is controlled by both personal and environmental factors. Combinations of air temperature, wind, humidity and radiated heat will change the feeling, or <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/info/thermal_stress/index.shtml">apparent temperature</a>, of the weather.

We can create spaces with optimum comfort levels through a combination of shading, reduced heat build up in materials, humidity and wind management. Rather than trying to change the temperature of the whole city, we can provide heat refuges at street level to make the city more functional on hot days.

We know that a comprehensive toolkit is needed to understand how we can cool the city in different places. Trees and greening are important but aren’t practical everywhere, and certainly not when they are used in isolation.

Designs that also include redirecting wind, controlling humidity and water and that consider thermal qualities of materials are necessary. There are also further opportunities for enhanced cooling that use virtually no energy.

For example, geothermal cooling (where wind is tunnelled underground and cooled by the earth) and misting are two tools that can actively reinforce cool space within cities.

<h2>A winning design</h2>

In a recent <a href="http://moorabbinjunction.com.au/tag/street-14-2/">Street14 ideas competition</a> run by the Australian Institute of Landscape Architects and Kingston City council we tested these design ideas on a site in the Melbourne suburb of Moorabbin. Our entry won Best Urban Tactic, you can watch the video below.

<figure><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="260" scrolling="no" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/gH0lRonGyc4?wmode=transparent&amp;start=0" width="100%"></iframe></figure>Our research using on site temperature and humidity sensors revealed temperature differences of up to 10C across a small urban block. In addition, whilst exposed sites were the hottest, they were also often the quickest to cool off.

This gives us big clues into designing urban spaces for use across a whole day, where it’s important to minimise heat build-up but also to encourage rapid heat loss.

Key to this idea of designing microclimates is designing responses to the local conditions.

In Moorabbin, having the sensors on site was important because it meant we weren’t designing using generalised ideas, but instead able to work with the specific events on site.

<h2>Global movement</h2>

This kind of work on design with atmospheric conditions is beginning to be explored in cities around the world.

Examples include climate engineers <a href="http://www.transsolar.com/">Transsolar</a>, who were instrumental in demonstrating that Qatar’s 2022 World Cup bid was viable, showing how well designed stadia could mitigate the extreme temperatures of a <a href="http://www.transsolar.com/blog/design-for-outdoor-comfort/index">Qatar summer</a> (see also <a href="http://www.ted.com/talks/wolfgang_kessling_how_to_air_condition_outdoor_spaces">here</a>).

In Taiwan construction is underway on the <a href="http://www.philipperahm.com/data/projects/taiwan/index">Jade Eco Park</a>, a climatically controlled park that works to vary temperature, humidity and to provide clean air within microclimates to counter or enhance <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDr-6UtlUu8">local climactic conditions</a>.

Australian cities, with very particular weather conditions, need responsive design solutions that work with those kinds of factors.

For example, Melbourne’s very dry summers are more suited to cooling tactics that involve evaporation than other more humid capital cities.

Urban design can create spaces of heat refuge at street level within cities. Tram stops, train stations and streets that need to be used even during the most extreme heatwave are places that can be cooled.

If we can drop the temperature of these spaces by even a few degrees, we can <a href="https://wiki.csiro.au/download/attachments/442597561/Thursday%20Chen_1140Th.pdf?version=1&amp;modificationDate=1334212028180&amp;api=v2">save lives</a>.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/33246/count.gif" width="1">

Wendy Walls received prize money from the Street14 ideas competition. She is the recipient of the David Yencken scholarship in Landscape Architecture. Joseph Barrins does not work for, consult to, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has no relevant affiliations.

This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="http://theconversation.com/smart-urban-design-could-save-lives-in-future-heatwaves-33246">original article</a>.

Lead image credit: <a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/avlxyz/11972019693/in/photolist-jdp65a-jdnVFp-jds3Df-jdpVRj-jdoLgP-jdpGnA-5W8th3-5WcSh5-jeVJLg-jeUfkn-5W4jx8-jeVJmD-5XF7rN-5Y3B1Y-6uzGbR-7d1Eak-5W4adK-5XYqPp-jeYsEA-jeVHGT-jeWjB3-nJmFzT-63iwCG-63iwCw-4zWML6-jeYsqC-jeUgai-jeYswE-jeWkDd-jcahrH-jBqJyG-jfecrQ-xcjRj-5W1ty7-5Wc197-5Y1juH-5VYbUL-65gSbq-e3sUGT-7vceLC-6aws9p-7vceFs-jfee9s-jyqpqu-jyvLZF-jdXsTr-jf47fz-dx6w64-4yN8HU-5VLjah">Flickr</a>, CC BY-SA 2.0
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Smart urban design could save lives in future heatwaves

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By <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/philip-laird-3503">Philip Laird</a>, University of Wollongong.

Australia has scored poorly in the energy efficiency of its land transport, and is well behind other major economies, a recent <a href="http://www.aceee.org/research-report/e1402">international scorecard</a> has revealed. That means Australians are using more energy to travel each kilometre than people in developed nations such as the US, and major emerging economies such as China, Brazil, and India.

On overall energy efficiency across national efforts, buildings, industry and transport Australia ranked tenth out of 16 major OECD countries.

But the scorecard, published by the <a href="http://www.aceee.org">American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy</a>, found that Australia ranked last for transport and that for overall energy efficiency, Australia is the “one country in which a clear backward trend exists”. The report notes that this has occurred recently.

<figure class="align-centre zoomable"><a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/57427/area14mp/8qhrd8th-1409096614.jpg"><img alt="" src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/57427/width668/8qhrd8th-1409096614.jpg"></a>

<figcaption>Of 16 countries Australia ranked tenth for overall energy efficiency, but last for energy efficiency in transport. ACEEE</figcaption></figure>How has Australia got here? The trend is driven largely by Australia’s continuing and increasing investment in favour of roads rather than urban rail. Under the first budget for the Abbott government, nearly A$4.25 billion of funds were withdrawn from urban rail and diverted to road construction.

But, if we compare road and rail, we find roads not only encourage more energy use, but cost more too.

<h2>Australia’s transport scorecard</h2>

On the recent scorecard, using OECD, International Energy Agency and other independent data, Australia’s transport was ranked against 15 other countries.

Countries could earn a possible 25 points for transport energy efficiency (on land), on eight different criteria.

On three of eight criteria, Australia scored zero: fuel economy of passenger vehicles on both performance and the setting of future standards, and, for having no fuel efficiency standards for heavy trucks.

For each of four metrics including the use of public transport, and, investment in rail transit versus roads, Australia scored just one point each.

Only in the metric “energy intensity of freight transport” did Australia get full marks. This score was assisted by the very high energy efficiency of the iron ore railways in the Pilbara region of Western Australia.

Such a low ranking for transport energy efficiency policy and performance should act as an incentive for Australia to do better.

<h2>Rail and road compared</h2>

During 2011-12, cars, buses and trucks used nearly <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/9208.0/">32 billion litres of petrol</a>, diesel, and LPG. By way of contrast, rail used <a href="http://www.ara.net.au/publications-list?task=track&amp;id=677&amp;url=%2FUserFiles%2Ffile%2FPublications%2F13-09+ARA-2011-12-Rail-Industry-Report.pdf">1.67 billion litres of diesel</a> (or its electricity equivalent) in a year for a smaller passenger task but a larger freight task than road. This reflects the fact that rail is much more energy efficient than road transport to move people and freight.

In the late 1990s, both the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport, and Engineers Australia gave <a href="http://parkesfoundation.org.au/activities/orations/2011-2/">considered warnings</a> that cheap oil would not last forever, and more energy efficient transport was needed.

These warnings, and one in 2002 by the then Australian Treasury Secretary <a href="http://archive.treasury.gov.au/documents/440/PDF/Transport_Speech.pdf">Dr Ken Henry</a>, demonstrate the very challenging problems posed to future generations on the projected increases in urban traffic and interstate road freight.

In 2004, oil prices were rising, yet there were government forecasts that oil could be expected to drop back to US$20 a barrel. However, by mid 2008, oil prices had peaked at about US$146 per barrel. With the global recession, oil prices have since receded and so far petrol prices have been restrained. They are expected to increase over the next decade.

A further reason for reform is the sheer amount of money spent on roads, road vehicle usage, and its high external costs. In the early 1990s, research commissioned by the Australian Automobile Association found that the total cost of road vehicle operations, including the fuel they use, buying and maintaining the vehicles, road works, road crashes and external costs was about 11% of GDP.

In 2013-14 terms, this is some <a href="http://www.rba.gov.au/inflation/measures-cpi">A$173 billion each year</a>. Due to fuel costs and road outlays increasing faster than inflation over the past 20 years, and growing road congestion, this estimate is likely to be conservative.

There are numerous hidden costs of road vehicle use, but not including road congestion, leading to leading to a “road deficit” of about 1% of GDP. Road congestion costs add a further 1% or so of GDP. These costs simply cannot be reduced by building more roads.

In addition, Australia’s four largest cities need major urban rail upgrades, and the states need federal funds to progress the new rail construction. This includes a second Sydney Harbour rail crossing, the new Melbourne Rail Link (Metro), a Brisbane Bus and Train Tunnel, and Perth light rail.

<h2>Wrong way-go back</h2>

A <a href="http://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/2013/files/INFRA1886_R_BITRE_INFRASTRUCTURE_YEARBOOK_0813_web.pdf">recent report</a> from the Bureau of Infrastructure Transport and Regional Economics notes Australia’s three levels of government and the private sector are now spending over A$20 billion a year on road construction and maintenance.

Informed comment on our land transport policy (or lack thereof) has been provided in a recent report “<a href="http://www.ycat.org.au/?news=why-dont-they-do-it-in-the-road">Spend more, waste more. Australia’s roads in 2014: moving beyond gambling</a>”. The report, prepared for Infrastructure Australia was briefly placed on their website, and then withdrawn. It now may be found at the website of the <a href="http://www.ycat.org.au">Yarra Campaign for Action on Transport</a>, which would much prefer a better rail system for Melbourne rather than the proposed East West motorway that could cost up to <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/comment/labor8217s-east-west-link-8216policy8217-is-pathetic-20140820-1069pz">A$1 billion for each kilometre or $1m per metre</a>.

As noted by the recent report for Infrastructure Australia, “between 2008-09 and 2011-12, over A$4.5 billion more was spent on roads than was raised in almost all road taxes and charges.”

After noting the need for reform in road pricing, including mass distance location for the heavier trucks, this report considers that the big annual outlay of roads, which is set to grow even larger at the expense of federal funding of urban rail, is a “road spend [that] can only be described as hideously inefficient.”

Clearly, current federal policies of putting more money into roads and less into rail is a case of ignoring all the signs of “Wrong way-go back”.

Building more freeways will induce <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-freeways-cure-congestion-time-to-put-the-myth-to-bed-13896">more traffic</a>, and hence more road congestion with more liquid fuel use.

A more sustainable approach would be for Australia’s major cities to expand their urban railways, and for people to use more buses, cycling and/or walking. This would reduce liquid fuel use and hence emissions.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/29881/count.gif" width="1">

Philip Laird owns shares in some rail and road freight companies. He has previously received funding from the two Rail related CRCs and is affiliated, inter alia, with the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport, and Engineers Australia. The opinions expressed are those of the author.

This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="http://theconversation.com/australias-transport-is-falling-behind-on-energy-efficiency-29881">original article</a>.

Lead image credit: <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Freeway_(Melbourne)">Wikipedia</a>.
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Australia's transport is falling behind on energy efficiency

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By Jago Dodson, RMIT University.

Electric vehicles have been touted as the dream technology to solve our suburban transport challenges and rescue us from oil dependence and environmental threats. Yet technology use occurs in a social context. Almost no discussion of electric vehicles has addressed the uneven suburban social patterns among which electric vehicles might be adopted.

The <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1745-5871.12001/abstract">evidence</a> that my colleagues Neil Sipe, Terry Li and I have assembled suggests the socio-economic structure of Australian suburbia, in combination with the distribution of public transport infrastructure, constitutes a major barrier to the widespread adoption of electric vehicles, especially among the most car-dependent households.

Relying on electric vehicles as a solution to energy and environmental problems may perpetuate suburban social disadvantage in a period of economic and resource insecurity.

Australia’s five largest cities are the most car-dependent national set outside the United States. Our previous studies (Dodson and Sipe <a href="http://usj.sagepub.com/content/44/1/37.short">2007</a>; <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02673030802015619">2008</a> have shown that outer suburban residents, especially those with lower socio-economic capacity, are among those most exposed to the pressures of higher transport fuel prices.

Future transport fuel costs are likely to be even higher (currently oil is approximately US$100 per barrel). Unconventional oil sources such as shale or tar sands may be abundant, but they have much higher production costs than conventional light crude. Their current production boom is underpinned by expectations that global oil prices will remain high or increase further over the long term.

Higher oil prices and the need to constrain carbon emissions will likely lead to much higher transport fuel costs than have prevailed in the past decade.

Electric vehicles are often presented as the most likely way to resolve this transport conundrum. Australia’s 2012 <a href="https://theconversation.com/oils-well-in-the-white-papers-version-of-future-transport-10740">Energy White Paper</a> alludes to a transition to electric vehicles as the economy of conventional fuels wanes.

Much of the Energy White Paper and the rhetoric around electric vehicles assumes an unproblematic transition - consumers will change their behaviour in response to price pressures. There is little discussion of potential barriers and impediments to this comforting, convenient narrative.

It makes sense that households who are most car dependent and least able to afford higher fuel prices would be the most eager to switch to an electric car. But, it turns out, the social structure of Australian suburbia means these groups are poorly placed to lead such a transition.

In our study of Brisbane we created datasets linking vehicle fuel efficiency with household socio-economic status. <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1745-5871.12001/abstract">In our analysis</a>, high vehicle fuel efficiency, including hybrids, serves as a proxy for future electric vehicles. We linked motor vehicle registration data with the <a href="http://www.greenvehicleguide.gov.au/GVGPublicUI/home.aspx">Green Vehicle dataset</a> on fuel efficiency, plus travel and socio-economic data from the ABS Census.

Our analysis builds a rich picture of how the spatial distribution of vehicle efficiency intersects with suburban socio-spatial patterns, using Brisbane and Sydney as case studies.

We found that the average commuting distance increases with distance from the CBD while average fuel efficiency of vehicles declines. So outer suburban residents travel further, in less efficient vehicles, than more centrally situated households. Outer suburban residents are also likely to be on relatively lower incomes than those closer in.

The result is those living in the outer suburbs have relatively weaker socio-economic status but are paying more for transport. For example, one-third of the most disadvantaged suburbs in greater Brisbane also have the most energy-intensive motor vehicle use.

A socially equitable transition to highly fuel efficient or electric vehicles ought to favour those with the highest current exposure to high fuel prices. Yet our research finds it’s not likely to happen.

Outer suburban groups also own the oldest vehicles in the fleet - they can’t afford newer ones - and this also contributes to poor fuel efficiency and big transport bills. The newest most fuel efficient vehicles are more commonly purchased by wealthier inner-urban households. They can afford the car, but have less need of the efficiency because they don’t travel as far. If such patterns are applied to electric vehicles, their high cost and novelty status means they’re likely to also be taken up by this more advantaged group. Any subsidies offered to spur their uptake will be largely captured by the wealthy.

The implication of our analysis is that the intersection of new fuel and vehicle technology costs with the social and travel patterns in Australian cities mean that suburban households face continued socio-economic stress even as these new vehicles become more widely adopted in Australian cities.

So if new technologies such as electric cars aren’t the solution, how can we secure suburban households against higher fuel prices?

We need a sustained strategy to redress the grossly inequitable supply of public transport to our suburbs. We also need to decentralise our cities, getting jobs and services out into the suburbs and reducing the distances people need to travel by car.

Electric vehicles may be fantastic technology but they risk heading up a cul-de-sac of real suburban vulnerability.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/12389/count.gif" width="1">

Jago Dodson receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Logan City Council, Springfield Land Corporation and Lend Lease Communities.

This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> in February 2013. Read the <a href="http://theconversation.com/electric-vehicles-wont-solve-the-suburbs-transport-woes-12389">original article</a>.

Lead image credit: <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car" target="_blank">wikipedia</a> CC BY-SA 2.0
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