Developers and apartment buyers have a narrowing window of opportunity before Brisbane's Olympic infrastructure pipeline begins competing directly with residential construction, pushing up costs, tightening labour supply and making new projects increasingly difficult to deliver.

While Brisbane's apartment market continues to benefit from strong population growth and limited housing supply, industry research suggests the years leading up to 2027 could prove to be the most important period for developers looking to secure builders and buyers hoping to purchase before the next wave of price increases.

A new Colliers report, Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games: Creating Solutions, highlights the scale of the challenge. While thousands of new homes are planned across South East Queensland, the Brisbane Olympic Athletes Village alone will deliver more than 10,500 beds during the Games before being converted into around 1,750 to 2,000 apartments. Equivalent to almost two years of typical inner-city apartment supply, the project will also absorb a significant share of the construction workforce and building materials.

The broader construction pipeline paints an even clearer picture.

Construction Skills Queensland's Horizon 2032 report forecasts Queensland's annual construction pipeline will average $69 billion over the coming years before peaking at $75 billion in 2027-28. Demand for construction workers is expected to increase by 17 per cent to almost 150,000 people, with the industry facing an annual shortfall of around 19,000 workers that could blow out to as many as 35,000 during the peak construction period.

The Olympic venues, athletes village and supporting infrastructure will account for billions of dollars worth of work across South East Queensland through to 2032, creating intense competition for labour at a time when Australia's residential construction sector is already under pressure.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150489 project_image_fid=373834]

Colliers Queensland Residential Director Andrew Scriven said the convergence of these projects is creating a clear window of opportunity for both developers and buyers.

"From 2027 onwards, the market will shift dramatically," Scriven said.

"Labour will increasingly be locked into government-led infrastructure and Olympic projects, which means private residential developments will face higher costs and tighter margins. The developers who move now are the ones most likely to get projects off the ground."

Scriven said the same dynamic would also affect buyers, with fewer apartment projects expected to launch once construction capacity tightens.

"If you're looking to change your lifestyle over the next five years, now is your window of opportunity to buy."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150713 project_image_fid=373827]

Developers are already positioning themselves ahead of that window.

Following the success of Monarch at Toowong, Consolidated Properties is preparing to launch two new Brisbane apartment projects in the second half of 2026. They include <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/gloriette-30-bedivere-street-yeerongpilly-qld-4105">Gloriette</a> at Yeerongpilly Green, a 25-storey tower within one of Brisbane's key Olympic precincts, and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/castile-47-skyring-terrace-newstead-qld-4006">Castile</a>, a recently approved 25-storey riverfront development at 47 Skyring Terrace in Newstead.

Hutchinson Builders will deliver both projects, with early works already underway at Yeerongpilly and Newstead expected to commence later this year.

The timing comes as Brisbane's fundamentals continue to strengthen, with strong interstate migration, population growth and vacancy rates remaining below 1.5 per cent.

Colliers Queensland researcher Pragya Sharma said Greater Brisbane is forecast to require around 40,000 new apartments between 2021 and 2031.

"There's a real mismatch emerging between when housing is needed and when it will be feasible to build," Sharma said.

"As a result, the period leading up to 2027 presents a key window of opportunity for developers to secure approvals, funding and construction capacity, while buyers will have greater choice before supply constraints intensify."

Colliers research outlines a critical pre-2027 window to start residential projects before labour squeeze: now is the time to buy

Joel Robinson

Developers, buyers on watch in South East Queensland ahead of construction crunch: Colliers

It's taken less than nine months for developer Sherpa Property Group to sell out all 51 apartments in its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-oasis-palm-beach-7-9-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Oasis</a> development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/palm-beach-qld-4221">Palm Beach</a>, over a year before its anticipated completion.

&nbsp;

Located at 7-9 Sixth Avenue, the $67 million development has resonated strongly with both local owner-occupiers and downsizers seeking high-quality apartments within walking distance of the beach, dining precincts and everyday amenities.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357458]

Christie Leet, Founder of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Group</a>, said the sell-out reflected both the strength of the Palm Beach market and the success of Sherpa's community-first approach to development.

"The sell-out of Oasis is a fantastic outcome and reinforces the strong demand we're seeing for thoughtfully designed apartments in lifestyle locations," Leet said.

"From the outset, our vision was to create a development that genuinely enhanced the Palm Beach community while providing residents with exceptional homes and wellness-focused amenities.

"We've been incredibly encouraged by the level of local support throughout the campaign, 72.5 per cent of buyers are locals, with a significant proportion of purchasers choosing Oasis as their future home rather than an investment."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357463]

Construction is now progressing following development approval, with trusted builder LPS Group delivering the project and completion anticipated in Q3 2027.

Oasis forms part of Sherpa Group's successful Flourish collection, which has become recognised for its focus on wellness, community and elevated coastal living.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357469]

Residents will have private access to a rooftop amenity space featuring a pool, gym, sauna, steam room, hot and cold plunge pools, spa and barbecue facilities.

"The success of Oasis demonstrates that buyers continue to prioritise quality, location and lifestyle," Leet said.

"We are proud to have delivered a project that has resonated so strongly with the market and look forward to bringing Oasis to life for our future residents."

Sherpa recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-palm-beach-1150-1160-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a>, its third instalment of the Flourish brand in Palm Beach following Flourish Oasis and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Amargo</a>.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151449]

Sherpa sells out Flourish Oasis in booming Palm Beach

Urban Property Group's <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/la-vera-macquarie-park-94-talavera-road-macquarie-park-nsw-2113">La Vera</a> is leading the next phase of Macquarie Park's residential evolution, with the new apartment development set to become the first of several new apartment projects in the precinct to complete.

The 169-apartment building has now topped out ahead of its scheduled completion in the third quarter of 2026, as new residential investment continues to reshape one of Sydney's largest employment hubs into a true mixed-use precinct.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=368645]

Cox Architecture has designed La Vera to capture the best of its unique positioning on Talavera Road, orienting the building towards Lane Cove National Park.&nbsp;The building features a sculpted northern façade with flowing curves inspired by the surrounding landscape, while its city-facing elevation adopts a more structured architectural expression to maximise skyline views.

"The vision for the project was to conceive a building that adopted an organic and curvilinear form to the northern portion that faces the Lane Cove National Park," <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">Cox Architecture</a> Director Felipe Miranda said.

"The residents that reside in the northern portion of the building benefit by having beautifully crafted curved balconies that speak to the natural context and heighten the relationship of their internal living spaces to the external balconies."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=358802]

La Vera offers a diverse mix of one, two, three, and four-bedroom configurations, with prices currently starting from $740,000. Buyers so far have been a mix of Sydney-based investors,&nbsp;metro commuters, owner-occupiers and downsizers from surrounding North Shore suburbs.

Both investors and owner-occupiers have been drawn to La Vera's proximity to Macquarie University, Macquarie University Hospital, Macquarie Centre and the Sydney Metro, infrastructure that supports both strong rental demand and a convenient lifestyle for residents.

The apartments feature full-height glazing, timber flooring throughout living areas, stone kitchen benchtops, SMEG appliances, floor-to-ceiling bathroom tiling and ducted air conditioning.

Residents will have access to a rooftop recreation level featuring a swimming pool, sauna, barbecue facilities and landscaped relaxation areas, complemented by additional communal space at ground level. Many apartments enjoy uninterrupted views across Lane Cove National Park, reinforcing the project's connection to its natural setting.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=364551]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a>, a family-owned developer and builder with nearly four decades of experience, holds a 4.5-star iCIRT rating and was Australia's first developer to introduce 10-Year Latent Defects Insurance (LDI). La Vera is the first apartment development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/macquarie-park-nsw-2113">Macquarie Park</a> approved to offer the additional insurance protection, alongside a five-year warranty on SMEG appliances.

Urban Property Group CEO Patrick Elias said the additional protection reflects changing buyer expectations in the off the plan market.

"Consumers are a lot more weary and a lot more concerned in buying off the plan than they ever have been. Having LDI is a tool to portray the confidence that we have in our product, and a confidence we want buyers to share," Elias said.

Following completion of the building later this year, buyers will move into their apartments well before Christmas.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134951]

La Vera closes in on completion as Macquarie Park continues residential transformation

Brisbane developer Red &amp; Co's decision to include dual key apartments in its debut Gold Coast apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/como-varsity-lakes-22-lake-street-varsity-lakes-qld-4227">COMO Varsity Lakes</a>, is proving to be one of the project's biggest drawcards, with buyers quickly snapping up the flexible residences.

More than half of the project's 36 dual key apartments have already sold, helping drive COMO beyond the 50 per cent sold mark within the first month of launch.

The strong response highlights growing demand for apartment designs that can adapt to changing lifestyles, with buyers increasingly looking for homes that accommodate multi-generational living, provide rental income opportunities or simply offer greater flexibility over time.

Located on the shores of Lake Orr, COMO will deliver 156 apartments across 16 levels, with the dual-key residences forming a limited release within the broader development.

Each combines a primary two-bedroom apartment with a fully self-contained studio on a single title, connected by a shared foyer and lockable internal door. The design allows owners to house ageing parents, adult children or guests while maintaining privacy, or lease the secondary residence to generate additional income.

Just 17 of the original 36 dual key apartments remain available.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=367096]

The innovative configuration combines two fully self-contained residences on a single title, typically comprising a primary two-bedroom apartment alongside a separate studio residence, connected via a shared foyer and lockable internal door.&nbsp;

The model is proving particularly attractive to owner occupiers navigating changing family dynamics and the realities of the current housing crisis.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363511]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/npa">NPA</a>&nbsp;CEO Andrew Erwin said dual key living was resonating strongly with modern buyers because it delivered both financial flexibility and practical lifestyle benefits.&nbsp;

“The housing crisis and rising cost of living are fundamentally changing how Australians think about home ownership,” Erwin said.&nbsp;

“Dual key apartments provide a genuine solution for families who want to stay connected while maintaining independence. Parents can help adult children save for a future home, ageing parents can remain nearby without moving into aged care, and owners still retain privacy and flexibility.

“Importantly, buyers are also recognising the financial advantages. It creates the opportunity to generate additional income from part of the home without the holding costs associated with owning a separate investment property.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363509]

Unlike traditional dual occupancy arrangements, the residences operate under a single title, meaning owners only incur one set of body corporate fees, council rates and holding costs.&nbsp;

The secondary residence can also evolve over time - functioning as guest accommodation, a home office, creative studio or private retreat before later becoming an income-producing asset.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/red-co">Red &amp; Co</a>&nbsp;Director and Co-Founder David Laverty said the strong early sales reflected growing buyer urgency and changing priorities within the market.&nbsp;

“Securing more than half of COMO’s residences within such a short timeframe is an outstanding result and a clear endorsement of both the design and location,” Laverty said.&nbsp;

“Buyers are responding to the combination of location, connectivity and amenity, but ultimately it’s value relative to other East Coast markets that is driving enquiry.”&nbsp;

“We’re also seeing strong interest from owner occupiers looking for homes that can adapt with them over time. Flexibility has become one of the most important considerations for buyers in today’s market.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363515]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bda-architecture">BDA Architecture</a>, COMO features a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom residences with 2.7-metre ceilings and larger-format floorplans aimed at owner occupiers, downsizers and lifestyle-focused buyers.&nbsp;

The development will feature an extensive rooftop recreation and wellness offering including a 25-metre lap pool, sundeck, barbecue and dining areas, gym, sauna, plunge baths, landscaped gardens, wellness spaces and rooftop pickleball and paddleball courts.

The remaining dual key apartments range from 137 sqm to 167 sqm and include generous three-bedroom layouts with separate self-contained studio accommodation and dual parking.&nbsp;

Erwin said the dual key concept represented a broader shift in how Australians would live in the future.

“People want homes that can evolve with their lives,” he said.&nbsp;

“A dual key apartment can suit a family today, support an ageing parent tomorrow, and potentially generate income later on. That adaptability is becoming incredibly valuable in the current environment.”

Prices currently range from $2,115,750 to $2,583,000.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135546]

Inter-generational living drives demand for COMO’s dual key apartments as housing pressures reshape buyer priorities 

Builder-developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ceerose">Ceerose</a> has doubled down on its Leichhardt ambitions, lodging its second State Significant Development Application (SSDA) in the suburb in the last six months.

Their newest proposal seeks to transform a former industrial precinct into a new residential community centred around the adaptive reuse of one of the site's heritage warehouse buildings.

The new project, on a 6,930 sqm block at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/40-76-william-street-leichhardt-nsw-2040">40–76 William Street</a>, will bring more than 200 apartments to a suburb that has seen little to no new supply in recent years. It follows Ceerose's late 2025 SSDA for a mixed-use apartment project on nearby Parramatta Road, signalling the developer's growing investment in Sydney's Inner West.

Ceerose Founder Edward Doueihi told Apartments.com.au the developer’s long-standing presence in Leichhardt and the Inner West had given it a strong understanding of how the area has evolved and where its future opportunities lie.

“Ceerose has had a long-standing presence in Leichhardt and the Inner West, giving us a unique understanding of the area’s evolution and future potential,” Doueihi said.

“Having delivered projects throughout the region, we have witnessed the suburb’s transformation first-hand and understand the opportunities for its continued growth.”

Doueihi said that understanding also informed the planning process, with a comprehensive Stakeholder Engagement Outcomes Report prepared before the application was lodged.

The report identified the key issues and concerns raised by neighbouring residents and other stakeholders, allowing those matters to be considered and incorporated into the design where appropriate.

He said the delivery of additional housing would also play an important role in supporting the revitalisation of Norton Street and the Italian Forum.

“By increasing the local residential population, the development is expected to strengthen demand for local businesses, encourage further investment, and help restore the vibrancy that made the precinct a thriving destination in the early 2000s.”

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7258c54c-8167-479e-8361-2d5fca9915b4" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010B%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%202.jpg?VersionId=S9DQfxu_jpcB5LrAEYFUbyMzg5odW6i5" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a>, the redevelopment would involve the demolition of four existing industrial buildings while retaining and adaptively reusing the site's most significant warehouse. The retained structure would anchor a new residential precinct comprising five interconnected buildings arranged around a large central landscaped courtyard, with heights stepping from five storeys along the surrounding residential streets to 11 storeys at the William Street corner.

According to the Architecture Design Report by Woods Bagot, the proposal "seeks to create a residential village centred around a generous green heart while celebrating the site's industrial heritage through the adaptive reuse of the existing warehouse building."

The development would comprise 203 apartments, with 188 proposed as build-to-sell residences, alongside 15 affordable housing apartments.

Rather than treating the retained warehouse as a standalone heritage object, Woods Bagot has sought to weave the site's industrial history throughout the masterplan. The proposal retains the north and west facades of the landmark corner warehouse, while new buildings reinterpret the site's brick-and-steel industrial language through their material palette and architectural expression.

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9e8c64c2-881b-49e1-8c90-6b6acaaa45b6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010C%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%203.jpg?VersionId=Qm8_8H_Xrg_sc4Mdjc59vlAcKF_5wRTb" />

The design is organised around what Woods Bagot describes as a "green heart", a landscaped communal open space that reinstates the leafy character removed when the site became an industrial storage facility. A new pedestrian laneway running through the site would improve permeability between William, North and Francis streets, linking residents through landscaped public spaces while activating the ground plane.

Residents would have access to communal gardens and shared recreation areas distributed throughout the development. Sustainability has also been prioritised, with the project targeting an average 7.9-star NatHERS rating. Proposed initiatives include rooftop solar generation, rainwater harvesting, passive solar design, naturally ventilated lobbies, extensive cross-ventilation and the reuse of existing building fabric to reduce embodied carbon.

The adaptive reuse strategy became a defining feature of the application after heritage investigations found only one of the site's industrial buildings could feasibly be retained. The Heritage Impact Statement concludes that preserving the key warehouse façades while referencing the site's industrial character throughout the new development provides an appropriate balance between renewal and conservation.

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="efffafdb-594f-4e2b-a067-921fd51c05e1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010D%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%204.jpg?VersionId=DPmE4.k16YRt0i27hEZVtJAffarpvUfx" />

"Retention and adaptation of the site buildings has been explored but found not to be feasible except for the tallest building, whose street facades will be retained," the heritage report states.

"The proposed building will interpret the brick and steel character of the subject site, including reuse of some components and construction of a large 'sawtooth' structure in the proposed open space."

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3bfef2b5-83f5-40cd-9cab-767092f34266" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010E%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%205.jpg?VersionId=7asb3i_ql4ybbuJOUb5UHBEIy0Q9t.DF" />

The William Street site is located around 300 metres from Leichhardt North Light Rail station and a short walk to Norton Street's retail, dining and hospitality precinct. The surrounding area has increasingly become a focus for urban renewal given its proximity to public transport and the Parramatta Road corridor.

Doueihi founded Ceerose in 1998 and has grown the business to become one of Sydney's more active apartment developers in recent years, with completed projects including The Alex Collective in Alexandria, Abbie's Lane in Annandale, and the award-winning Munro House in Elizabeth Bay. They are currently delivering Belgravia, 17 luxury apartments in Potts Point.

First look: Ceerose doubles down in Leichhardt with adaptive reuse of former warehouse site

The Conversation

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By <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/stephan-winter-13767">Stephan Winter</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/nicole-ronald-206182">Nicole Ronald</a>, and <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/ronny-kutadinata-206188">Ronny Kutadinata</a>.

Cities are complex systems. One visible artery of the city is traffic – the cluster of moving people and flowing goods – and mobility is critical for a city’s life. We should be concerned about voices pointing to disrupting forces on mobility, such as a <a href="http://www.disrupting-mobility.org/#welcome-">Global Summit on Disrupting Mobility</a> recently hosted by Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

The challenges of mobility in the city are well known; roads at capacity, urban growth, peak oil, air quality and climate change are among the prominent ones.

These challenges are already on the verge of disruption if we simply prioritise roads and cars. Melbourne and Sydney roads are at capacity – or beyond – in commuting hours already. There is just no space to cater for the transport demands of <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/products/AC53A071B4B231A6CA257CAE000ECCE5?OpenDocument">population growth</a> of the predicted 50-100%.

We need change, and we need it urgently. But twisting a complex system somewhere, even with the best intentions, may have unintended consequences elsewhere. An evolution might be a better approach than just allowing technology to disrupt.

<h2>Beyond the driverless car</h2>

Much of the hype on disrupting mobility is caused by the emergence of driverless vehicles. But these alone would not reduce the number of vehicles on the road – quite the contrary.

The core of the problem is private car ownership and its inefficient use. Cars are often empty and stationary, and underutilised even on the road. Disrupting mobility is not just about driverless cars, it is multi-faceted.

Alternative means and systems are required to enable choice and comfortable access. This would mean better integration of various means such as fast mass transport, <a href="http://publictransport.about.com/od/Transit_Planning/a/The-Last-Mile-Problem.htm">last mile transport</a> and active forms of transport.

The design and integration of these modes require proper designs, regulations and policies, automation and control for safety, smart use of land and space for urban planning, supporting infrastructure, energy-efficient technologies and connecting IT platforms.

One key to reducing private car ownership is a shared transport economy. Shared vehicles, shared trips and shared parking spaces will improve efficiency.

Added to this is the smart integration of different travel modes. This is being attempted with train and bus connections, including multi-modal ticketing. But it should go far beyond these limited efforts – the current exploration of a single smart card for all forms of mobility is an example of this.

Even after the advent of the driverless car, a critical part of the mix will be mass transit. Last mile transport may become a niche for the driverless car. This could take the form of on-demand shuttle buses in areas surrounding a station, and improved bicycle parking and access.

In the US, <a href="https://www.lyft.com">Lyft</a> has found that transit access makes up a large number of user requests and has <a href="https://nextcity.org/daily/entry/lyft-transit-agency-partnership-first-mile-last-mile-goals">recently entered partnerships</a> with transit companies. At this stage, the transit company trip planner includes a link to the Lyft website so that passengers can plan their entire journey.

<h2>The changing bus</h2>

In areas of low travel demand, demand-responsive services are replacing fixed bus services with low patronage. The route and/or time is not fixed and is determined by passengers’ needs. These provide a more affordable service for operators and, depending on the service, more flexibility for passengers.

The <a href="http://ptv.vic.gov.au/getting-around/maps/telebuses/">Telebus service</a>, operating in Melbourne’s outer east, allows passengers to be picked up or dropped off from their homes, saving a walk to the bus stop.

Flexible commuter buses are also gaining traction in the US. <a href="http://www.bridj.com">Bridj</a>, in Boston, uses traffic data and historical information about passengers to determine weekly routes and timetables. For some patrons, the service offers a more convenient and reliable trip than using public transport.

However, other entrants in this area, such as Melbourne’s <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/business/road-to-nowhere-suitjet-fails-to-gain-traction-20141113-11mluc">SuitJet</a> and San Francisco’s <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com.au/leap-declares-bankruptcy-2015-9#/#from-the-outside-leap-looks-like-your-normal-everyday-city-bus-just-in-a-bright-shade-of-blue-before-you-get-on-the-bus-you-have-to-pull-up-the-app-which-provides-a-real-time-arrival-estimate-as-well-as-a-number-for-how-many-seats-were-left-you-can-either-check-in-with-a-qr-code-or-activate-an-express-check-in-option-which-uses-bluetooth-to-check-you-in-automatically-i-went-with-the-second-option-1">Leap bus</a>, did not succeed.

<h2>Cities require connections</h2>

Another area of innovation is on-demand delivery of food and other goods. Australian company Swift is <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/it-pro/business-it/from-afl-star-to-big-apple-startup-swifts-joel-macdonald-is-kicking-goals-20151103-gkq5y0">attracting attention</a> in the US for its on-demand services, after starting out as a liquor delivery service. Food delivery services are also popular. These services could replace a car trip, which could involve cruising for a parking space, or a walking trip.

However, a vision of door-to-door vehicular travel will have effects on behaviour. Would anyone walk or cycle? Would these activities become simply exercise modes?

Cities are about people. Such a behavioural change would affect the atmosphere of the city by removing incentives for planning for walkability.

Effective transportation is about connecting people and places. Building a connected and integrated system of transportation modes – incorporating “traditional” and “disruptive” modes – is crucial for mobility and livability for future cities.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/50965/count.gif" width="1">

<a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/stephan-winter-13767">Stephan Winter</a> is a Professor of Spatial Information at the <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne">University of Melbourne</a>; <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/nicole-ronald-206182">Nicole Ronald</a> is a Lecturer in Computer Science and Software Engineering at the <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/swinburne-university-of-technology">Swinburne University of Technology</a>, and <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/ronny-kutadinata-206188">Ronny Kutadinata</a> is a Research Fellow of the School of Engineering at the <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne">University of Melbourne</a>.

This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/growing-challenges-are-disrupting-our-old-ways-of-getting-around-cities-50965">original article</a>.

Lead image credit: <a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/albertoalerigi/19232388402/in/photolist-viv22u-vgHSDs-CBp84C-8uHhR7-agvAo1-psVEE4-guxYWF-psDm7v-pbtN8R-pbrvNb-pqTYLG-pby15m-pqY1sE-pbx6Ur-pqTPvC-pbuWw4-psWsdf-pt14Dc-pbvvwx-psF76k-pbt5iQ-pbvKFU-psHFGz-9c3U4g-dg5kWh-5YTsm1-8H7fHm-rtbgjD-EBkBk-dsn3e1-9c74JU-4spKGs-dez7n7-kdD7M-7DtHQb-psX3L6-psVFPf-4j9mMM-psUdCU-pqXkF1-7ZnAK8-yjCmRd-yAhxNQ-6g2CQt-pqXTkd-pbvd3L-psXKd5-anzA5T-hhxpty-khhZRf">flickr</a>
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theconversation

Growing challenges are disrupting our old ways of getting around cities

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By <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/carolyn-whitzman-9944">Carolyn Whitzman</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne">University of Melbourne</a>.

At the <a href="http://www.nhc.edu.au/">National Housing Conference</a> last week, there was considerable optimism about the newly appointed federal minister for cities, Jamie Briggs, whose infrastructure mandate <a href="http://www.architectureanddesign.com.au/news/australia-appoints-a-minister-for-cities-and-the-b">includes housing</a>. New energy is coming from the states with the largest affordable housing deficits – a <a href="http://www.nsw.gov.au/innovate/social-housing-assets">social housing initiative</a> from the New South Wales government and a “refreshed” <a href="http://refresh.planmelbourne.vic.gov.au/plan-melbourne-refresh-discussion-paper">metropolitan planning strategy</a> in Melbourne with a stronger emphasis on affordable housing.

It is now possible to imagine Australia having a national affordable housing strategy, backed by funding, by the end of 2016.

Australia certainly needs such a strategy. The population is projected to reach 38 million in the next 35 years. Sydney and Melbourne are each expected to grow by at least three million people. The <a href="http://www.pc.gov.au/research/completed/ageing-australia/ageing-australia-overview.pdf">proportion of older people</a> will be higher, with a lower proportion in the paid workforce.

This means we need at least six million new housing units in the next three decades. There is increasing impetus to locate these dwellings close to public transport, employment clusters and health and social services.

<h2>Cost pressures are intensifying</h2>

Rising housing demand and prices affect everyone, but low-income renters have <a href="http://housingstressed.org.au/get-the-facts/">fared worst</a> in recent years. Capital city rents rose by twice the level of inflation from 2005 to 2010. By 2011, the shortage of suitable rental properties exceeded 500,000.

As a result, even most households that receive Commonwealth Rent Assistance (projected to cost A$6.6 billion in 2015-16) <a href="http://www.welfarerights.org.au/sites/default/files/news/How%20Commonwealth%20Rent%20Assistance%20fails%20low%20income%20Australians.pdf">pay well over</a> the recommended maximum rent. Some 55% of the A$7.7 billion annual cost to the government of capital gains exemptions and negative gearing <a href="http://www.tai.org.au/content/negative-gearing-positive-richest-10">goes to the top 10%</a> of income earners. Only 4% goes to the bottom 20% of households by income.

Existing programs are not accomplishing policy aims. The Abbott government discontinued two small national programs, the <a href="http://www.chfv.org.au/database-files/view-file/?id=5378">Social Housing Initiative</a> co-funding construction of non-profit housing and the <a href="https://www.dss.gov.au/our-responsibilities/housing-support/programmes-services/national-rental-affordability-scheme">National Rental Affordability Scheme</a> subsidising below-market rental housing. No national strategy or infrastructure funding program has replaced those small but important initiatives.

<h2>Key steps towards affordability</h2>

What would be the basic elements of a national affordable housing strategy? Economist <a href="http://www.futurecities.org.au/blog/2015-guests-dr-david-rosen">David Rosen</a> led a review of the US$7 trillion spent in the US on federal finance, tax, lending, spending and regulatory programs and policies. According to Rosen, the place to start is a standard definition of “affordable housing”.

<figure class="align-left zoomable"><a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/100303/area14mp/image-20151030-16535-1656mxd.jpg"><img alt="" src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/100303/width237/image-20151030-16535-1656mxd.jpg"></a>

<figcaption>Malcolm Turnbull’s appointment of a cities minister, Jamie Briggs, has raised hopes of action on developing a national affordable housing strategy. AAP/Lukas Coch</figcaption></figure>The next step would be to calculate current and projected need for affordable housing by subtracting housing need from the available stock. There are local efforts to calculate this in cities like <a href="http://www.housinginvictoria.com.au/measures.aspx">Melbourne</a>, but it would need to be done in a consistent way across the country.

The cost of owning or renting a home includes rent or mortgage payments, property taxes and unit maintenance. A household can also incur onerous transport costs, if living far from employment and good public transport. Internationally, affordability is usually defined as housing that costs no more than 30-35% of household income, adjusted for household size.

For households earning less than 30% of their area’s median income, private market housing will almost certainly be out of reach without some form of subsidy.

In metropolitan Melbourne, for instance, the average weekly income is <a href="http://www.dtpli.vic.gov.au/data-and-research/population/census-2011/quick-facts">A$1333</a>. A little over 11% of households in the city (159,000 households) earn <a href="http://profile.id.com.au/australia/household-income?WebID=260">less than A$400 a week</a>, which is 30% of the median income. These households could only afford to pay a maximum of A$133 a week on the rent or mortgage. <a href="http://www.anglicare.asn.au/site/rental_affordability_snapshot.php">Less than 1% of rentals</a> in Melbourne are available at those prices.

Social housing constitutes less than 3% of total housing stock. Most of it is occupied by these low-income households. So, at the most basic level, affordable housing would seek to fill that shortfall of more than 150,000 units in one major city alone, as well as building for future affordable housing needs.

<h2>How do we fund affordable housing?</h2>

After calculating need, the next requirement for a national affordable housing strategy would be to identify all potential revenue sources to fund it. These could be direct funding from national, state and local governments, but also indirect funding through tax rebates, low- or no-cost land, or mechanisms like reduced parking requirements or expedited planning approvals (which cuts land-holding costs and uncertainties).

A plethora of mechanisms used in other countries could be adopted here. For instance, in the US the <a href="http://fas.org:8080/sgp/crs/misc/RS22389.pdf">Low Income Housing Tax Credit</a> has, since 1986, allowed private investors to obtain tax credits in return for a ten-year investment in constructing or rehabilitating low-income rental housing. The stable and bipartisan program injects about US$6 billion a year in capital into affordable housing.

If a small proportion of the negative gearing tax credit were re-allocated towards investment in social housing, a similarly scaled program could be instituted in Australia. Similarly, if the Commonwealth guaranteed a 6% return on social housing investment, how much of the <a href="https://www.superannuation.asn.au/resources/superannuation-statistics">A$2 trillion</a> held in superannuation funds could be unlocked?

For the past two years, the <a href="https://msd.unimelb.edu.au/transforming-housing-affordable-housing-all">Transforming Housing</a> project has brought together state and local government, private developers, community housing providers and commercial and philanthropic investors to identify barriers to scaling up affordable housing in metropolitan Melbourne and how to overcome them.

Much of the emphasis has been on mechanisms at a state and local level, ranging from value capture financing to innovative design and construction. However, there is growing consensus that a Commonwealth affordable housing strategy is essential to enable integrated action by other levels of government and the private and charitable sectors.

With a clear sense of the numbers around affordable housing need and a stable financing and renewal model, the Turnbull government could reap multiple co-benefits. A national strategy could make cities <a href="https://infrastructure.gov.au/infrastructure/pab/files/Our_Cities_National_Urban_Policy_Paper_2011.pdf">more liveable</a>, <a href="http://www.propertycouncil.com.au/Web/News/Articles/News_listing/Web/Content/News/National/2015/Find_out_how_property_helps_your_community.aspx">stimulate</a> the property and construction sector, and <a href="https://pathwaystohousing.org/housing-first-model">reduce healthcare costs</a>. The private and charitable sectors are waiting to swing into action.

<hr>
This article was co-authored by Dr David Rosen, principal of DRA Associates and an advisor on development, finance and policy; Rob Pradolin, general manager of business development for Frasers Property Australia; Catherine Brown, CEO of the Lord Mayor’s Charitable Foundation; and Dr Heather Holst, deputy CEO and director of services and housing for Launch Housing.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/49943/count.gif" width="1">

<a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/carolyn-whitzman-9944">Carolyn Whitzman</a> is Professor of Urban Planning at the <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne">University of Melbourne</a>. This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-national-affordable-housing-strategy-necessary-attainable-and-maybe-on-its-way-49943">original article</a>.
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A national affordable housing strategy: necessary, attainable and maybe on its way

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By <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/merridee-l-bailey-196598">Merridee L. Bailey</a>; <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/amy-milka-200753">Amy Milka</a>; <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/craig-lyons-200755">Craig Lyons</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney">University of Sydney</a>; <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/david-lemmings-200749">David Lemmings</a>; <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/gordon-raeburn-143098">Gordon Raeburn</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne">University of Melbourne</a>; <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/katie-barclay-200751">Katie Barclay</a>; <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/roger-patulny-94836">Roger Patulny</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-wollongong">University of Wollongong</a>, and <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/thomas-bristow-92779">Thomas Bristow</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne">University of Melbourne</a>.

Foundation essay: The Conversation has appointed a cities and policy editor to lead our coverage of the myriad issues affecting the urban centres where nine out of ten Australians live. This article sets the scene for exploring the many challenges facing cities today, as well as presenting solutions to the problems and highlighting the opportunities of life in the modern city.

<hr>
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has created a new ministry for cities and the built environment. Announcing his decision last month, <a href="http://www.malcolmturnbull.com.au/media/Ministry">he said</a>:

<blockquote>
Liveable, vibrant cities are absolutely critical to our prosperity. (They are) where the bulk of our economic growth can be found … (and they are) economic assets. (M)aking sure that Australia is a wonderful place to live in, that our cities and indeed our regional centres are wonderful places to live, is an absolutely key priority of every level of government. Because the most valuable capital in the world today is not financial capital … (it’s) human capital.
</blockquote>

While the question of what is a <a href="https://theconversation.com/melbourne-the-worlds-most-liveable-city-not-exactly-17677">“liveable city”</a> inspires endless debate, less thought has been given to making urban planning a more democratic process.

<h2>Natural evolution and the birth of urban planning</h2>

In the 18th century, one of London’s <a href="http://www.londonlives.org/static/Policing.jsp">pioneer police magistrates</a>, Henry Fielding, strove to keep the streets of the city clear of crime and vice. But in the course of his work Fielding also went out of his way to help prostitutes and petty criminals. He understood that the city was made up of all sorts of people with different values and cultures.

Fielding was living in a period when London was experiencing a <a href="https://www.oldbaileyonline.org/static/Population-history-of-london.jsp">population boom</a>, going from just over 500,000 in 1700 to 900,000 in the 1801 census.

Today, <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/world-urbanization-prospects">54% of the world’s population</a> lives in cities, which have historically drawn people from myriad economic, social and cultural backgrounds. Cities have always been places of integration, intense population pressures, migration flows, cultural interactions and variations in socioeconomic positioning and values.

Fielding was interested in making London a liveable city, although the term would have been anachronistic to him. Yet it appears almost ubiquitous in contemporary policymaking, urban planning and in the public imagination. A liveable city has become the highest form of praise we can give to a city space.

But liveable for whom? The implication is that ordinary people should be able to inhabit cities. Yet how governments generate affordable housing, and even who is allowed to have a say in the planning and development of a city, is often badly developed.

<h2>Where does democracy fit in?</h2>

Is a liveable city a democratic city? Who gets to participate in the process of governing and shaping a city?

In the early 20th century, modern cities were thought to evolve according to “natural” processes, combining migration, growth and the urban form. Urban sociologists from the Chicago School <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.jstor.org/stable/2084475?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">outlined</a> how cities evolved like living social organisms balancing conflict and co-operation, density, heterogeneity and tolerance. Ernest Burgess even <a href="http://isites.harvard.edu/fs/docs/icb.topic1050993.files/2-15%20-%20Ernest%20Burgess%20-%20The%20growth%20of%20the%20City.pdf">suggested</a> that the very form of the modern city developed in predictable fashion as a set of “concentric rings”, with production and workers’ cottages in a singular inner centre and more affluent suburbs at the extremities.

<figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/99617/area14mp/image-20151026-18421-14fkgz2.jpeg"><img alt="" src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/99617/width668/image-20151026-18421-14fkgz2.jpeg"></a>

<figcaption>A failure to plan contributes to urban sprawl as cities spread along major highways. <a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_sprawl#/media/File:Los_Angeles_-_Echangeur_autoroute_110_105.JPG">Wikimedia Commons/Remi Jouan</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></figcaption></figure>Such ideas have given way to a more complex depiction of post-modern cities, incorporating multiple (or no) centres, historical communities, development interests and urban planning. Urban planning is seen as an essential technical science. A <a href="http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/75353.Edge_City">failure to plan</a> is associated with dystopian images of suburban sprawl, of the “exopolis” without facilities or a civic centre, or of “edge cities” growing like lichen along the intersections of major highways.

Appropriate planning is aimed at building the best cities to enhance quality of life and attract the elite of the global workforce. We strive to find a formula for the most liveable city and potentially top the <a href="http://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=Liveability2015">EIU’s Global Liveability Ranking</a> (which Melbourne achieved in 2015).

Urban planners explore how cities can be sustainable and how a continuous food and water supply can be ensured, but they also deal with concerns about over-population, migration and what happens when poverty is concentrated in certain areas, which can increase the potential for crime.

<h2>Cities as economic sites or liveable places</h2>

Soon after his appointment, the new cities minister, Jamie Briggs, <a href="http://www.jamiebriggs.com.au/MayoMedia/Media/tabid/64/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/1675/Media-Release-Appointment-to-the-Ministry-Monday-21-September-2015.aspx">conveyed</a> his vision of cities as economic sites:

<blockquote>
Cities are one of the great drivers of our economy. Most Australians live in our cities and the majority of businesses are based in or around them. They are the engine room of commerce, infrastructure, innovation, the arts, science and development.
</blockquote>

<figure class="align-left zoomable"><a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/99622/area14mp/image-20151026-18411-159cr4r.jpg"><img alt="" src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/99622/width237/image-20151026-18411-159cr4r.jpg"></a>

<figcaption>Cities are drivers of the economy, as Jamie Briggs says, but they are much more than that and a holistic approach is vital. AAP/Lukas Coch</figcaption></figure>While it’s true that historically people have been drawn to cities because of the economic opportunities they offered, such claims disguise both the difficulties for urban migrants and environments that economic opportunities have created, as well as the negative implications for those remaining in rural areas.

Before 1871, migrants from across France settled in Paris as a consequence of its economic opportunities and political importance. The social disconnection implicit in such movement became evident in Emile Durkheim’s 1897 <a href="http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/58095.On_Suicide">study of French suicide rates</a> and the breakdown in traditional forms of social solidarity.

Migration also played out broader social inequalities across the nation in urban space. People grouped in neighbourhoods based on shared languages and dialects that related to their home regions. Within those districts, rich and poor shared the same buildings, their wealth demarcated by their positioning in the building.

Perhaps this was better for social integration than many modern environments, but a focus on the city as an economic space can lose sight of how cities are made liveable. Social relationships are key to central ideas of safety, belonging and ownership.

In 1903, Georg Simmel <a href="http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/content/bpl_images/content_store/sample_chapter/0631225137/bridge.pdf">described the metropolis</a> as a blasé, rationalised space that alienates people from people and feelings, in that:

<blockquote>
… punctuality, calculability, exactness are forced upon life by the complexity and extension of metropolitan existence.
</blockquote>

Sixty years later, however, Jane Jacobs <a href="http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/30833.The_Death_and_Life_of_Great_American_Cities">defended</a> the city as a myriad of communities in that:

<blockquote>
… the trust of a city street is formed over time from many, many little public sidewalk contacts.
</blockquote>

<h2>What makes the ideal Australian city?</h2>

<figure class="align-right zoomable"><a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/99619/area14mp/image-20151026-18435-1ysintt.jpg"><img alt="" src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/99619/width237/image-20151026-18435-1ysintt.jpg"></a>

<figcaption>Liveable cities like Melbourne pay attention to the aesthetic and human qualities of urban space. AAP/David Crosling</figcaption></figure>Is it Canberra, which divides public opinion with its low density, its roundabouts and planned streets? Is it Sydney or Melbourne with their high-density cultural vibrancy? Or is it the small country towns, which often appear communal in ways larger cities do not?

We often think of the attachment we have towards cities in emotional terms; we love or hate a place, we feel comfortable or settled in some spaces but not in others. We instinctively speak about cities in terms of their emotional impact on our lives.

Even Wordsworth, renowned for his love of nature and solitude, spoke of his emotional attachment to the city. Reflecting on his first sight of London, he <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=CQ73AQAAQBAJ&amp;pg=PA263&amp;lpg=PA263&amp;dq=%22A+weight+of+ages+did+at+once+descend%22&amp;source=bl&amp;ots=0n0Uxkijdk&amp;sig=FINPIn8wP8rYzCSvvwpFOhVjFek&amp;hl=en&amp;sa=X&amp;ved=0CCMQ6AEwAmoVChMItYmGp_jeyAIVpl2mCh1ZUQjv#v=onepage&amp;q=%22A%20weight%20of%20ages%20did%20at%20once%20descend%22&amp;f=false">wrote</a>:

<blockquote>
A weight of ages did at once descend

Upon my heart – no thought embodied, no

Distinct remembrances, but weight and power,

Power growing with the weight…
</blockquote>

For Wordsworth, as for others then and now, the city inspired a complex set of emotions.

<h2>What the new ministry needs to do</h2>

First, it needs to recognise the cultural, aesthetic and emotional elements of cities. It needs to acknowledge the importance of cultural activity ahead of the pursuit of commerce and the idea of cities as “economic assets”.

The aesthetic qualities of space are crucial to the notion of a liveable city. These became important in the 18th century with a growing appreciation of the ways that environment shaped the self and emotional behaviours.

To produce “civilised” behaviours in their populace, urban planners laid out wide streets, introduced sewage and flowing water, added street lamps and began to police both the behaviour and cleanliness of the urban environment. This was not just about practical benefits to the population, but reflected a strong belief that surrounding yourself with beauty enabled people to be better versions of themselves.

<figure class="align-left zoomable"><a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/99620/area14mp/image-20151026-18446-f29ymd.jpg"><img alt="" src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/99620/width237/image-20151026-18446-f29ymd.jpg"></a>

<figcaption>The people of Copenhagen still benefit from the city’s 18th-century reforms. AAP/Visit Denmark</figcaption></figure>Such ideas remain important to the present. Historians of emotions spend a lot of time thinking about how cities and spaces create emotions, historically but with implications for modern spaces. Urban planning (or its lack) can produce emotions in inhabitants, whether that is the disgust at poor sewage and disease that inspired reform in 18th-century Copenhagen or 20th-century Sydney, the anger and tensions caused by ghettoisation of minority groups, or the political unrest caused by poor housing and overcrowding.

Perhaps most famously, cities have provided “outcast” individuals, such as gay men and lesbians, with a space to create a community, to find affirmation of their feelings and to build pride and political identity. A narrow focus on the city as a driver of the economic, without an appreciation of how the urban shapes those who live within it can act as a challenge to social stability and personal wellbeing.

Historically, the use of space in cities has been a matter of pride, displaying important cultural and architectural landmarks, but also an issue of public health and safety, preventing the spread of diseases, fires and crime. Our historical knowledge of cities can be enormously helpful in informing current ideas about city planning by showing how people have reacted emotionally to city spaces in the past.

The answer to the question of what makes a city liveable is complex and constantly evolving. Because of this we should be insisting on answers about what will be happening to Australia’s cities in the next few decades.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/48825/count.gif" width="1">

<a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/merridee-l-bailey-196598">Merridee L. Bailey</a>, Senior Research Fellow, ARC Centre of Excellence for the History of Emotions; <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/amy-milka-200753">Amy Milka</a>, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for the History of Emotions; <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/craig-lyons-200755">Craig Lyons</a>, MSc Candidate in Human Geography, School of Geosciences, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney">University of Sydney</a>; <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/david-lemmings-200749">David Lemmings</a>, Professor of History; <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/gordon-raeburn-143098">Gordon Raeburn</a>, Postdoctoral Fellow in the History of Emotions, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne">University of Melbourne</a>; <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/katie-barclay-200751">Katie Barclay</a>, Research Fellow, ARC Centre of Excellence for the History of Emotions; <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/roger-patulny-94836">Roger Patulny</a>, Lecturer in Sociology, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-wollongong">University of Wollongong</a>, and <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/thomas-bristow-92779">Thomas Bristow</a>, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne">University of Melbourne</a>.

This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/liveable-cities-who-decides-what-that-means-and-how-we-achieve-it-48825">original article</a>.
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Liveable cities: who decides what that means and how we achieve it?

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By <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/soufiane-boufous-135956">Soufiane Boufous</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-australia">UNSW Australia</a>.

Despite the health, environmental and social benefits of cycling, efforts to boost the number of people travelling by bike have hit a plateau. <a href="https://www.onlinepublications.austroads.com.au/items/AP-C91-15">Recent data</a> show no significant change in cycling participation across Australia between 2011 and 2015, and it now seems clear that the <a href="http://www.bicyclecouncil.com.au/files/publication/National-Cycling-Strategy-2011-2016.pdf">National Cycling Strategy</a> goal of doubling cycling between 2010 and 2016 will fall short.

Cycling accounts for 1% of daily trips in Australia, and the main barrier to greater uptake seems to be the <a href="http://www.heartfoundation.org.au/SiteCollectionDocuments/Cycling-Survey-2011-Riding-a-Bike-for-Transport.pdf">widespread concern</a> about safety, particularly fears of sharing the road with motor vehicles and a lack of appropriate infrastructure.

To an extent, the numbers bear this out. Although my research shows that <a href="http://www.tars.unsw.edu.au/news/2015/Bycicle_Statististical_Study">cyclist deaths</a> have decreased steadily over the past two decades, <a href="http://bitre.gov.au/publications/2015/files/is_071_ph.pdf">cyclist hospitalisations</a> rose from 3,676 in 2005 to 5,527 in 2013, while bicycle riders as a proportion of all road hospitalisations rose from 13% to 16%.

In the Sydney metropolitan area, <a href="http://www.georgeinstitute.org.au/publications/use-of-a-syndromic-surveillance-system-to-describe-the-trend-in-cycling-related">30% of road trauma presentations to emergency departments</a> are due to cycling injuries.

It seems, then, that a good way to make cycling more popular is to make it safer.

<h2>Rights on the road</h2>

A crucial first step is to recognise bicycle riders as legitimate road users, with an accompanying right to ride safely on roads. While very important, better cycling infrastructure cannot on its own improve safety, because many bicycle riders will still have to share the road with motorists.

Australian Road Rules recognise the bicycle as a vehicle and bicycle riders as legitimate road users with the same rights and responsibilities as others. However, cyclists often feel harassed, intimidated and left fearing for their life simply for riding on roads.

A case in point is the right of cyclists to “take the lane” instead of keeping all the way to the left, where they are often at the mercy of close-range overtaking, debris and drains, or at risk of being “doored” by a stationary vehicle. Yet when bicycle riders take the lane to improve their safety, they are often accused of being selfish or arrogant, or of putting themselves in harm’s way. When I was asked by a passenger in a passing car if I had a “death wish” for taking up the left lane I felt like screaming out “I don’t have a death wish; what I have is an equal right to reach my destination safely”.

Many motorists are simply not aware of the rights of bicycle riders and the challenges they face in navigating a road system designed primarily for motor vehicles. This underpins the widespread belief that bicycle riders are “rogue” road users who continually break road rules.

Of course, this is not to say that bike riders never break the rules. On the contrary, a <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/cyclists-break-the-law-due-to-safety-concerns-study-says-20141008-1138cn">UNSW study</a> reported a high number of bicycle riders flouting road laws, with pushing out in front of red lights and riding on the footpath topping the list of infringements. However, most of the cyclists in the survey cited safety as their main reason for breaking the law. As one respondent put it:

<blockquote>
If drivers are aggressive I am more likely to try and get out of their way (to the footpath) or try to get ahead of them at lights so I am not under pressure and they don’t try to pass me dangerously.
</blockquote>

And let’s not forget that motorists and other road users also break the law – in fact, motorists are more likely to do so when it comes to conflict with cyclists. A <a href="https://theconversation.com/helmet-cam-captures-bike-accidents-and-could-make-cycling-safer-3540">Victorian study</a> that examined camera footage of incidents involving cyclists and other road users found that the driver was responsible for the action that preceded the event in 87% of cases. In 74% of those events, the driver cut the cyclist off without providing enough space, indicating effectively, or performing a shoulder check.

A <a href="http://eprints.qut.edu.au/29579/">Queensland survey</a> found that 88% of cyclists – and, perhaps surprisingly, 60% of drivers – agreed that “drivers do not look for cyclists”.

<figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/98030/area14mp/image-20151012-23302-1b3han9.jpg"><img alt="" src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/98030/width668/image-20151012-23302-1b3han9.jpg"></a>

<figcaption>Sharing is nice. Soufiane Boufous, Author provided</figcaption></figure><h2>The mental roadblock</h2>

Tackling ignorance and confusion about cycling will be crucial to improving the situation. As part of this year’s <a href="https://www.vicroads.vic.gov.au/safety-and-road-rules/cyclist-safety/cycling-road-rules-review">review of bicycle laws in Victoria</a>, a survey of 10,444 Victorian residents revealed misunderstanding around many of these laws. The review identified the need to improve awareness of 20 separate rules, and recommended that seven of them should be amended to make them clearer.

Here are some of my recommendations to improve acceptance of bicycle riders as legitimate road users:

<ul>
<li>Put more emphasis on driver-cyclist interactions as part of the training to obtain a driver’s licence.</li>
	<li>Use new evidence on cycling safety to inform a review, with a view to updating cycling laws nationally, not just state-by-state.</li>
	<li>Run national public information campaigns, similar to Lake Macquarie City Council’s <a href="http://www.newcastlestar.com.au/story/2886783/campaign-helps-motorists-see-cyclists-as-legitimate-road-users-video/">Life Cycle</a> strategy, to promote the rights of bicycle riders as “one of us” and cycling as a legitimate form of transport.</li>
	<li>Introduce presumed liability legislation, similar to that <a href="http://lawdigitalcommons.bc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2176&amp;context=ealr">implemented in Europe and proposed in the US and the UK</a>, which puts the onus on drivers to prove that a collision with a cyclist or pedestrian was not their fault.</li>
</ul>
Standing up for your rights as a cyclist riding on roads dominated by motor vehicles can be daunting and dangerous. There is a need to change the culture, through legislation, education and training, so that all users can safely and responsibly share the road.

<a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/soufiane-boufous-135956">Soufiane Boufous</a> is a Research Fellow for Road Safety and Injury Prevention at <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-australia">UNSW Australia</a>. This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/more-people-will-cycle-when-everyone-accepts-cyclists-right-to-be-on-the-road-48185">original article</a>.

Lead image credit: Wikipedia.
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More people will cycle when everyone accepts cyclists' right to be on the road

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The appointment of a <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/minister/briggs/index">federal minister for cities and the built environment</a> is a signal moment in urban policy in Australia. It is a much-needed portfolio for an overwhelmingly urban nation but will need new policy capacity if the government’s urban goals are to be realised.

Australian cities are among the fastest-growing in the developed world. They face problems of poor housing affordability, growing inequality, inadequate and inefficient infrastructure, unsustainable environmental demand and uneven employment distribution and productivity.

Long neglected federally, urban affairs is the gaping void in 21st-century public policy. Not since 1972 has Australia seen both the Labor and the Liberal parties commit to a cities portfolio within the Commonwealth ministry. That this has now occurred under a Coalition government is especially unusual.

Labor governments have been most engaged with urban questions. Curtin initiated a federal housing program and spurred states to better urban planning. Whitlam sewered neglected suburbs and stabilised fringe land markets, while Keating stimulated inner-city urban renewal. The Rudd-Gillard government boosted infrastructure and set national principles for metropolitan planning.

The short-lived McMahon government’s 1972 <a href="https://www.comlaw.gov.au/Series/C1972L00183">National Urban and Regional Development Authority</a> is the only previous Coalition urban foray of note.

<h2>Creating the capacity to do urban policy</h2>

As the new minister, Jamie Briggs’s agenda is not yet detailed, although it looks set to focus on <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/malcolm-turnbull-sends-gang-of-three-to-unclog-cities/story-fn59niix-1227542862627?sv=9d68d99a6c06e535533c7f2c184e8e8e">integration, infrastructure and greening</a>. What could a new urban program look like, and what are the urban reform imperatives facing the Turnbull government?

The first task must surely be to develop permanent urban analytical and policy capacity in the federal public service. The Department of Environment, where the cities minister will be hosted, has almost no urban policy capability. The strongest federal urban capacity is in the <a href="https://infrastructure.gov.au/infrastructure/pab/">Planning Analysis Branch</a> of the Department of Infrastructure. The Turnbull government must build rapidly off this small but competent base.

A second task is to create federal capacity for cross-portfolio policy coordination. A cities agenda requires federal arrangements that can link across transport, infrastructure, environment, housing, finance, education, health and social services to build a multi-dimensional policy perspective on cities.

The third capacity-building task is to re-establish national coordination arrangements for urban policy. The federation gives almost all hands-on urban responsibility to the states but the Commonwealth has the revenue. The previous Labor government worked through the <a href="https://www.coag.gov.au/">Council of Australian Governments</a> (COAG) to establish consensus principles for major city planning and investment in a largely bipartisan way. That process could be revived and improved with relative ease.

A robust evidence base exists on which to ground policy directions but it is not well linked with policy. Capability development should thus also extend to Australia’s high-quality but under-resourced university research sector. The extensive network of scholars within the <a href="https://www.be.unsw.edu.au/centres/city-futures/state-australian-cities-research-network">State of Australian Cities Research Network</a> could assist with this task, as could the <a href="http://www.ahuri.edu.au/">Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute</a>.

The final capacity need is for federal policy to establish its own analytical framework. The urban sector abounds with rent-seekers. A federal urban perspective must stand above such rent-seeking to develop a sophisticated conceptual stance on how our cities work and the levers of policy.

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/eastern_freeway_belford_st.jpg" rel="gallery-all" title="Rail over road? Where urban policy is concerned, decisions about transport options are never far away. Image Wikipedia"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="287" src="/sites/urban.melbourne/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/eastern_freeway_belford_st.jpg?itok=Ks-ZdibW" title="Rail over road? Where urban policy is concerned, decisions about transport options are never far away. Image Wikipedia" width="580"></a>

<figcaption>Rail over road? Where urban policy is concerned, decisions about transport options are never far away. Image Wikipedia</figcaption></figure><h2>Directions for policy</h2>

The overturning of Tony Abbott’s aversion to public transport funding is a welcome sign of progress. Public transport is vital for future urban productivity and sustainability.

New arrangements are needed to make transparent the external urban costs of private car use, whether through road and parking user pricing or via enhanced environmental emissions charging. Such measures need to be progressive, however, so the burden does not fall unfairly on low-income, car-dependent households with the fewest alternatives.

Building infrastructure alone is unlikely to improve how our cities function. We need to make better use of existing assets. This includes dedicated multi-modal network coordination in public transport, as the 2009 <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Rural_and_Regional_Affairs_and_Transport/Completed%20inquiries/2008-10/public_transport/index">Senate inquiry into public transport</a> advocated, accompanied by optimisation of existing road space via conversion to high-frequency transit routes.

Further areas in urgent need of intervention are Australia’s inflated and exclusionary urban housing markets. <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/negative-gearing">Negative gearing</a> should be reformed as a tax credit scheme with transparency to ensure the value of the concession is targeted to the most needy urban renters.

We need an urban taxation regime that captures the value gains from federal investment. Land value uplift from infrastructure investment should not accrue to private interests but be recycled into the federal funding pool.

A national approach to replace stamp duty with broad-based land taxes is also needed. This would improve the flexibility and efficiency of urban housing markets while retaining a financing stream for urban investment. Land tax should be progressive, so it targets land value and housing wealth, not housing consumption.

A progressive capital gains tax on owner-occupied housing could also be applied to dampen price inflation and raise new public revenue. Similarly, a national approach to inclusionary zoning mechanisms for affordable housing would also help to ensure urban redevelopment creates new social housing supply.

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/narre_warren_wikipedia.jpg" rel="gallery-all" title="Fixing the housing bubble is a key urban challenge. Image Wikipedia"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="387" src="/sites/urban.melbourne/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/narre_warren_wikipedia.jpg?itok=9jbMZ0-N" title="Fixing the housing bubble is a key urban challenge. Image Wikipedia" width="580"></a>

<figcaption>Fixing the housing bubble is a key urban challenge. Image Wikipedia</figcaption></figure>As a suburban nation Australia faces serious gaps in how it plans new suburbs and renews existing areas. A national suburban policy is needed to improve the quality of fringe development and facilitate the renewal of ageing middle suburbs for new housing.

Employment distribution in Australian cities is highly uneven. Ready access to high-quality jobs is increasingly the preserve of inner-urban households. Federal support for expansion of suburban employment nodes linked to public transport could ensure more higher-quality jobs are closer to the places households live. Ensuring land-use zoning does not exclude workers from job-rich middle suburbs is a further task.

Reform of the planning arrangements for our cities is desperately needed. National principles for metropolitan planning, as COAG established in 2009, are not unhelpful. But we need governing entities that can plan and manage cities at the metropolitan level while providing a democratic accompaniment to the current dominance of state planning ministers.

Prime Minister Turnbull has <a href="http://www.govnews.com.au/turnbull-could-drive-a-new-focus-on-cities/">previously argued</a> that density is the solution to our urban woes but that poorly done density reduces amenity. High-amenity densification is possible but <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-carbon-devil-in-the-detail-on-urban-density-4226">the urban science on very-high-density development</a> shows its environmental performance is often poor.

Density can help to improve our cities but only as part of carefully crafted wider changes to spatial structure via infrastructure, housing and governance reform. Density is a means, not an end in itself. Plans to expand green space and provide for biodiversity in cities must be part of any densification strategy.

<h2>Putting policy to work</h2>

A sense of urgency is needed. The urban sphere is dominated by what Nicole Gurran and Peter Phibbs have called <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02673037.2015.1044948?journalCode=chos20#.VgS8RWSqqko">busy work</a> in which policy discussion and review defer substantial change.

Moreover urban policy is often captive to property, infrastructure and financial interests that put their private gain over the public interest. The Turnbull urban agenda needs to be more than a talking point or vehicle for shoddy deals.

Urban policy is the key policy discipline of the 21st century. It needs to be placed at the core of Australia’s federal policy arrangements.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/47858/count.gif" width="1">

<a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/jago-dodson-2359">Jago Dodson</a> is Professor of Urban Policy and Director at the Centre for Urban Research, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/rmit-university">RMIT University</a>. This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/urban-policy-could-the-federal-government-finally-get-cities-47858">original article</a>.

Lead image credit: <a href="http://ohyesmelbourne.com/">ohyesmelbourne.com</a>
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Urban policy: could the Federal Government finally ‘get’ cities?

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By <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/alexa-delbosc-147245">Alexa Delbosc</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/monash-university">Monash University</a>.

Australians have very high expectations of their public transport systems. They consistently <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/make-room-transport-survey-20120925-26jgm">prefer</a> investment in public transport over investment in roads. State elections have been <a href="http://insidestory.org.au/how-labor-lost-new-south-wales">lost</a> when politicians don’t meet those expectations.

As a researcher in public transport, I am frustrated by a narrative I see time and again. It comes up in comments in focus groups and pops up at the bottom of news articles. It goes something like this:

<blockquote>
I’ve been to London / New York / Tokyo and their public transport system is better / cheaper / more reliable than ours! Why can’t our public transport be that good?
</blockquote>

Australia’s public transport systems seem shoddy compared to other countries for a number of reasons. These reasons make me question whether those comparisons are valid.

<h2>When on holiday, don’t do as commuters do</h2>

The first reason this comparison is flawed is because when we’re on holiday, we don’t use public transport the same way we do in our mundane commute back home.

When you’re on holiday your concept of time and money is different. A few extra dollars for a tourist pass, a few extra minutes on the platform, it all becomes part of the adventure of travel. A few extra dollars or minutes back home is another inconvenience in your daily grind.

Chances are when you visited London, Tokyo or New York you visited the exciting tourist centres of these cities – places where public transport is at its best.

You probably didn’t visit Woldingham, Tachikawa or Port Washington – outlying suburbs beyond the reach of metro systems. Places where the trains only run every 20 minutes or, heaven forbid, you may have to use a bus. Places a lot more like the suburbs back home.

<h2>Australia’s super cities</h2>

The other reason this comparison is flawed is due to the super-size of Australia’s cities. How that came about is an accident of history as much as anything. Many of the overseas cities Australians idolise did most of their growing before the private car became embedded into the transport system. This resulted in compact urban forms served by narrow, winding streets.

That urban form was designed to suit the needs of pedestrians, horse carts and trams. By the time the car came along it had to be retrofitted into the city.

In contrast, Australian cities – along with many American cities – did most of their growing in parallel with the explosion of motor vehicle ownership. Highways and cars facilitated the post-war suburban explosion, allowing millions to live the dream of quarter-acre blocks far from the city centre.

Because of this legacy, Australian cities are enormously far-reaching. In most capitals you can drive for 100km and still be within the same city limits. <a href="http://mapfrappe.com/?show=31990">Melbourne’s</a> footprint is six times the size of London with half its population; <a href="http://mapfrappe.com/?show=31995">Brisbane</a> is 20 times the footprint of New York City with one-quarter of its population.

<figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/89420/area14mp/image-20150723-22849-1ao8g4e.png"><img alt="" src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/89420/width668/image-20150723-22849-1ao8g4e.png"></a>

<figcaption>London (1,572 sq km, 8.3 million people) vs Melbourne (9,990 sq km, 4.3 million). http://mapfrappe.com</figcaption></figure><figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/89421/area14mp/image-20150723-22816-afd8si.png"><img alt="" src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/89421/width668/image-20150723-22816-afd8si.png"></a>

<figcaption>New York City (790 sq km, 8.4 million people) vs Brisbane (15,826 sq km, 2.2 million). http://mapfrappe.com</figcaption></figure>In Australia, public transport has to play catch-up constrained by an urban form designed by and for the car. This isn’t an impossible task, by any means, but it suggests that perhaps we’re comparing ourselves to the wrong cities.

What if we made more realistic comparisons? For example Portland, Oregon, is around the same size and has about the same population of Brisbane. It is <a href="http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2011/02/08/10-best-cities-for-public-transportation">held up</a> as one of the “best transit cities” in the United States. Yet Brisbane has more public transport trips per capita – around 70 <a href="https://bitre.gov.au/publications/2014/files/is_060.pdf">per year</a> – than Portland, which has 58 <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/how-your-citys-public-transit-stacks-up/">per year</a>.

If <a href="https://bitre.gov.au/publications/2014/files/is_060.pdf">Australia’s cities</a> were ranked alongside <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/how-your-citys-public-transit-stacks-up/">American cities</a> in public transport trips per year, Sydney and Melbourne would both rank third behind New York and San Francisco, Perth would rank ninth (above Chicago) and Brisbane would rank tenth (above Philadelphia).

<h2>A call to (realistic) action</h2>

I am glad that Australians have high expectations of their public transport systems, and I will continue to advocate for improving public transport as an integral part of efficient, sustainable cities. But Sydney will never be Tokyo and Adelaide will never be London – nor should they be.

We already have strong, uniquely Australian legacies to build on. Adelaide and Brisbane were some of the first cities in the world to <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0739885914000535">invest</a> in bus rapid transit. Melbourne has the <a href="http://atrf.info/papers/2013/2013_currie_burke.pdf">largest</a> streetcar (tram) network in the world.

Rather than lamenting what we are not, let us focus on making Australian public transport systems the very best they can be.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/44307/count.gif" width="1">

<a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/alexa-delbosc-147245">Alexa Delbosc</a> is Lecturer in Transport at <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/monash-university">Monash University</a>. This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/public-transport-is-always-greener-on-the-other-side-44307">original article</a>.

Lead image credit: <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.flickr.com/photos/-marlith-/2634898429">flickr</a>
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Public transport is always greener on the other side

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By <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/judith-yates-148000">Judith Yates</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney">University of Sydney</a>.

The current <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/HomeOwnership">parliamentary inquiry into home ownership</a> is in the midst of public hearings, questioning, among other things, the decline in home ownership among younger Australians.

This, however, is not a recent issue. For a long time young people have found it difficult to purchase their first home. Home ownership rates for households aged 25-34 began to decline close to 40 years ago; declines for those aged 35-44 followed a decade later.

<iframe allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" frameborder="0" height="360" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" src="//datawrapper.dwcdn.net/GKLPh/2/" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" width="100%"></iframe>

Declines have been most dramatic among low to moderate income households; only younger households in the top quintile of the household income distribution have been (relatively) protected.

<iframe allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" frameborder="0" height="400" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" src="//charts.datawrapper.de/50dB3/index.html" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" width="100%"></iframe><iframe allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" frameborder="0" height="400" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" src="//datawrapper.dwcdn.net/08QYt/1/" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" width="100%"></iframe>

<h2>A 40-year problem</h2>

These declines date back to social, demographic and economic changes that began up to 40 years ago. Social change in the 1970s saw the number of both single adult and dual income households increase. This resulted in increasing disparities in household incomes. The increasing numbers of high income households increased housing demand and triggered pressures on the housing market that began to squeeze out lower income households.

These pressures have been maintained by ongoing household income inequality, which has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/senate-report-shows-why-australia-needs-to-talk-about-inequality-36121">increasing in Australia since the mid-1980s</a>, compounded by growing earnings inequality and the impacts of uneven economic growth.

The squeeze on lower income households was intensified during the 1980s by high inflation and high nominal interest rates that limited borrowing capacity and created significant deposit gaps for those already facing income constraints.

From the 1990s, younger households were additionally constrained by the burden of education debt and deterred from home ownership by the implementation of compulsory superannuation which slowed down earnings growth.

As inflation and nominal interest rates fell throughout the 1990s, financial liberalisation contributed to an increase in the availability and reduction in the cost of housing finance. This, along with associated changes in lending criteria, disproportionately benefited high income households, most of whom were already established home owners.

The willingness of established households to invest in both owner-occupied housing and investor housing was fuelled by changes in our tax system that made housing an extremely attractive investment. Tax benefits for owner-occupiers increased in 1985 when owner-occupied housing was exempted from the newly introduced capital gains tax. For housing investors (whether negatively or positively geared), benefits arose from the asymmetric treatment of income and expense. These tax benefits increased in 1999 for debt financed investors prepared to speculate on rising real house prices.

Demand pressures from established households in the past two decades (readily seen in <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5609.0">housing finance data</a>) have reinforced ongoing pressures on urban land markets from population growth.

Declines in agriculture and manufacturing and the rise of the services sector have led to an increasingly urbanised population with jobs being concentrated in the centres of our capital cities. Increased demand has contributed to an increase in, and a steepening of, land price gradients in these cities. This is partly a result of the innate shortage of centrally located land in areas where job concentration is greatest, partly in response to state government strategic policies encouraging infill development, and partly in response to the inadequate investment in, and cost of, transport infrastructure.

In other words, increasing land values in urban locations are an inevitable outcome of the combined impact of:

<ul>
<li>the pressure of income and population growth;</li>
	<li>structural change which results in increasing urbanisation and concentration of (knowledge-based) employment in its central locations</li>
	<li>a failure to invest in rapid-transit transport infrastructure that facilitates cost-effective access to employment and essential services.</li>
</ul>
Quick fix solutions to the housing affordability problems that have led to declining home ownership rates often look to land release and urban planning policies. These might ease supply shortages driven by a growing population, but they are less likely to work when price growth is coming from increasing demand for bigger and better located dwellings. This demand is driven both by economic growth and by increasing inequality.

Higher housing prices arising from demand and supply pressures have had a number of effects. They have increased the wealth of established home owners and provided a platform for further increases in demand for housing, reflected in upgrading of existing homes, and in demand for second homes and investment dwellings. In so doing, they have excluded a growing proportion of younger households, and particularly low to moderate income households, from home-ownership. Some of this group can’t afford to buy, others would rather rent in a higher cost location closer to job opportunities than live on the outskirts of our metropolitan regions where housing may be more affordable.

<h2>The underlying issues</h2>

Short term cyclical factors are not enough to explain declining rates of home ownership amongst younger households. Underlying structural factors and changing institutional arrangements have been critical.

These include:

<ul>
<li>our system of housing finance that makes it relatively easier for better-off households to accumulate housing assets through debt finance;</li>
	<li>our income taxation system that provides these households with an incentive to treat property as a means of accumulating wealth ahead of its more essential role as providing shelter; and</li>
	<li>our system of property rights that ensures those who do own land are able to act as rent-seekers by expropriating for their own the increase in land values not of their own making.</li>
</ul>
These institutional arrangements reinforce existing housing and wealth inequalities.

If the decline in home ownership among younger households is not reversed, then ultimately Australia’s aggregate home ownership rate will fall. Whether this matters is an entirely different question. But it does suggest it’s time policy makers recognise the underlying structural drivers of current housing outcomes and consider which households will benefit from new policies that support property ownership.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/45716/count.gif" width="1">

<a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/judith-yates-148000">Judith Yates</a> is Honorary Associate Professor at <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney">University of Sydney</a>. This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="http://theconversation.com/explainer-whats-really-keeping-young-and-first-home-buyers-out-of-the-housing-market-45716">original article</a>.

Lead image credit: <a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/mugley/534456296/">Flickr</a> CC BY SA
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Explainer: what's really keeping young and first home buyers out of the housing market

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By <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-newman-1858">Peter Newman</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/curtin-university-of-technology">Curtin University</a>.

There is a new fear on the block. Not just ISIS, home invasions, wind turbines and the budget deficit, but now we must fear … traffic congestion.

The <a href="http://infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/policy-publications/publications/australian-infrastructure-audit.aspx">Infrastructure Australia report</a> on the future needs of our cities emphasises the growing problem of urban traffic congestion all over the country. It is echoed by the <a href="https://infrastructure.gov.au/infrastructure/pab/soac/">State of Australian Cities</a> report.

Congestion, it warns, will overwhelm our futures, making them unlivable, uneconomic and ungovernable as we fight for every piece of road space.

But do we have to accept that congestion trends will overwhelm us? Is it really right to fear congestion?

<h2>The fear</h2>

According to the IA report travel times are going to increase by at least 20%. The total cost of such congestion will increase from A$13.7 billion a year to A$53.3 billion by 2031, an increase of nearly three times. The loss of time will apparently cripple us.

The public policy reaction to fear is to jettison economic analysis and throw money at it. No benefit-cost ratio is needed as we need to act now or it will overwhelm us. Kneejerk reactions like this are usually regretted in hindsight but at the time we have no choice, it must be done.

In this climate of congestion-fear big roads are not being assessed, just announced. The congestion peril is coming. We must honour the Abbott government’s election commitments to around A$40 billion of high-capacity roads such as the East-West Link in Melbourne (now discredited and dropped by the Victorian Government), the Connex West system in Sydney (causing similar pain with communities subject to its impact) and most recently the Perth Freight Link (which looms as the biggest election issue facing the Barnett government that never actually wanted it). All of these roads have benefit cost ratios that make them very questionable.

Long-term plans are being drawn out of old cupboards for road projects dreamed up in the 1960s – like a plan to build a 10-km tunnel under Perth’s Swan river to link the city’s leafy western suburbs with the similarly well-heeled area around Applecross. Good luck with that one.

<h2>Peak car</h2>

The congestion trends being used to scare us are not based on actual data but on projections. They come from a model that is now discredited. In reality Australian cities <a href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/pid/7465.htm">peaked in car use</a> per person <a href="http://espace.library.curtin.edu.au/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&amp;object_id=183183&amp;local_base=GEN01-ERA02">in 2004</a>, like all developed cities across the globe.

The chart below shows that peak car occurred in all Australian cities, regardless of their level of congestion as Canberra, Hobart and Darwin also peaked.

<figure class="align-center"><img alt="" src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/89735/width668/image-20150726-8461-b9vy6p.jpg"><figcaption>Peak car use in Australian cities Newman and Kenworthy, 2015</figcaption></figure>Around the world there is a new dynamic in our cities as the young and wealthy are moving back into cities where they do not need to use a car and they are preferring fast trains and buses over traffic wherever they can.

Rail patronage is booming way beyond predictions as the speed of rail leaves traffic behind. The table below shows the relative speed of public transport (bus and rail) which is gaining but still loses to traffic, and rail to traffic which is now <a href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/pid/7465.htm">beating the traffic</a> in all cities in our global sample.

<figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/89596/area14mp/image-20150724-20940-oeb8ef.jpg"><img alt="" src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/89596/width668/image-20150724-20940-oeb8ef.jpg"></a>

<figcaption>Comparative Speeds of public transport (bus and rail) to traffic and also rail to traffic in global cities. <a class="source" href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/pid/7465.htm">Newman &amp; Kenworthy 2015</a></figcaption></figure><h2>Predicting the traffic</h2>

For decades the transport planning profession has used what is known as the Four Step model to predict traffic and hence provide road capacity. It does not suggest any other options than increasing road capacity such as public transport or land use changes that reduce the need to travel.

It has been put aside by most European cities who quickly saw what it did to rip the heart out of American cities. Despite its obvious simplicity it remains one of the modernist tools that are used to explain the future of cities. Most of all it is a tool to create congestion-fear.

But the Four Step model now has revealed one major failing: it assumes that as wealth rises then car ownership and car use will also rise. As the data above suggest if we look to the future we can confidently predict that wealth will rise but we cannot predict that this will automatically mean more car use. They are now decoupling.

The young and the wealthy are buying locations where car dependence is minimised and where sustainable transport options are easily available. Freedom and connection is now based on smart phones and social media and these are easier to use where you can walk, cycle or use a bus and train.

In the US the cities that are decoupling GDP from car use the most are the cities which have invested in rail, such as Washington DC and Portland, as you can see in the chart below. In cities that are emphasising sustainable transport modes the economic benefits are <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.amazon.com/Triumph-City-Greatest-Invention-Healthier/dp/0143120549">increasingly being demonstrated</a> (see also the <a href="http://www.creativeclass.com/richard_florida/books/the_great_reset">book</a> and <a href="http://www.citylab.com/work/2012/11/cities-denser-cores-do-better/3911/">this article</a> by urban theorist and professor at University of Toronto Richard Florida) as the knowledge economy requires dense centres and spatially efficient modes - walking, cycling and rail transit.

<figure class="align-center"><img alt="" src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/89736/width668/image-20150726-8470-6powhi.jpg"><figcaption>Decoupling wealth from car use in Washington DC and Portland, Oregon. Newman and Kenworthy, 2015</figcaption></figure>This global trend is also not just a phenomenon of wealthy cities. Rail projects are dominating the transport agenda of Chinese cities (building metros in 82 cities) and Indian cities (51 cities are building metros now since Prime Minister Modi <a href="http://www.sustainablecitiescollective.com/david-thorpe/281501/indias-2014-budget-promises-cash-100-smart-cities-metros-much-more">declared</a> any city over a million needs quality transit).

Even if we were faced with a mountain of traffic congestion we should not be building high capacity roads as they are no longer working to deliver the transport outcomes once expected. The Texas Transportation Institute <a href="http://mobility.tamu.edu/">has compared</a> miles of freeway against delay in the top 20 American cities and found no correlation, as you can see in the chart below.

<figure class="align-center"><img alt="" src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/89737/width668/image-20150726-8465-1yq7wv6.jpg"><figcaption>Freeways and delay in American cities. Texas Transportation Institute, Urban Mobility Information</figcaption></figure>The <a href="http://www.smartgrowthamerica.org/documents/foot-traffic-ahead.pdf">latest data</a> on American cities shows that the top six most walkable cities have 38% higher walkability. <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Cities-People-Jan-Gehl/dp/159726573X">Australian cities</a> have been showing this in their city centres as well (Gehl, 2011). This is now the real competitive edge attracting capital for the knowledge economy and to retain the young talent. This is how we should be facing the future not quivering in fear about congestion.

It’s time to change our traffic prediction models.

It’s time to support global trends towards transit, walkability and urban regeneration.

It’s time to drop the big road fetish.

It’s time to stop fear of congestion as the core issue facing the future of our cities.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/45154/count.gif" width="1">

<a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-newman-1858">Peter Newman</a> is Professor of Sustainability at <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/curtin-university-of-technology">Curtin University</a>. This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="http://theconversation.com/dont-panic-traffic-congestion-is-not-coming-for-our-cities-45154">original article</a>.
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Don't panic! Traffic congestion is not coming for our cities

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By <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/heather-shearer-138992">Heather Shearer</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/griffith-university">Griffith University</a>.

Housing affordability is a <a href="https://theconversation.com/tackling-housing-unaffordability-a-10-point-national-plan-43628">perennial problem in Australia</a> and has <a href="http://www.griffith.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/363648/2011-14-the-quarter-century-record-on-housing-affordability-drivers-government-policy-responses.pdf">worsened significantly over the past three decades</a>.

Multiple reasons exist for the the lack of affordable housing. On the demand side these include population growth and increased migration to urban areas, easily accessible housing finance, tax incentives and a “<a href="http://www.griffith.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/363648/2011-14-the-quarter-century-record-on-housing-affordability-drivers-government-policy-responses.pdf">strong cultural preference for owner-occupied detached houses</a>”. On the supply side, affordability problems are exacerbated by inflexible and slow responses to the need for new housing stock, lack of infrastructure and generally inefficient planning processes and development assessment by local governments.

The increasingly popular tiny house movement has been mooted as a <a href="https://theconversation.com/move-over-mcmansions-the-tiny-house-movement-is-here-32225">potential solution to some housing affordability issues</a>. The movement originated in the US in the late 1990s, largely in response to housing affordability problems, the global financial crisis and the desire to live more sustainably. At the time, the tiny house movement was very small and <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/melbournes-housing-crisis-would-you-live-in-a-floating-apartment-20150323-1m0flc">localised</a>; in the past decade, it has become increasingly <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/news/tiny-homes/">mainstream.</a>

But how realistic is the potential for tiny houses to address some affordability problems in Australian urban areas? Certainly, there is very strong demand for affordable housing and for alternative housing forms. Recent research (an online survey, a series of interviews and social media analysis) has shown tiny houses appeal strongly to a wide demographic, particularly to single-person or couple households.

Economic and social factors were the major drivers of the interest in tiny houses. Economic factors included affordability, the desire to own (detached) property without a high mortgage and to reduce expenses and debt. Social factors included a strong desire for “freedom” and to live an environmentally sustainable lifestyle in “a community”. Tiny houses were also considered more aesthetically appealing and better designed than standard houses.

For example, a retired woman in her sixties said:

<blockquote>
I want to live in a community where I have my own space, but am surrounded by people who actually speak to me and share the big things (mowers, gardens etc). We need to strive for more affordable land usage and more community.
</blockquote>

In Australia, however, few have actually built a tiny house. This is likely due to economic, regulatory and social barriers, particularly high land prices and having “nowhere to park it”. Other economic barriers found in the study included insufficient cash, lack of mortgage finance, inability to insure mobile tiny houses, and no potential capital gains.

Regulatory issues included onerous planning schemes and building codes and transport restrictions for mobile tiny houses. Social issues included the unwillingness to relocate (generally from urban areas with proximity to employment, social networks and services) and a dislike of renting and of units in “high rises”.

<figure class="align-center"><img alt="" src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/87576/width668/image-20150707-1306-1ydpdv6.jpg"><figcaption>Tiny houses on wheels are popular in the US. Tammy Strobel/Flickr, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></figcaption></figure>With respect to tiny houses, these perceived barriers, however, are largely relevant for detached properties in urban areas. For example, high land prices are primarily an urban issue; thousands of properties in regional Australia, even with existing houses, can be considered affordable (under A$150,000). Regional councils are often considerably more flexible than urban councils regarding house form, planning permission and building codes. In addition, very small dwellings are already common in both regional areas (i.e. beach shacks or converted sheds) and urban areas (i.e. studio units).

But despite the interest in the movement, the barriers may pose too great a challenge for most, particularly for the very tiny house on wheels now common in the US. Another factor may be the unavailability of purpose-built tiny houses (readily available in US). The tiny house movement in the US is now so popular that some bespoke tiny houses <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/erincarlyle/2014/04/28/12-tricked-out-tiny-houses-and-why-they-cost-so-much/">are approximately double</a> the cost per square meter of standard houses.

It may be that the archetypal very tiny house on wheels will only ever appeal to a small, albeit passionate, niche of the total housing market. Nonetheless, this research seems to indicate a strong demand for affordable, well-designed, smaller and more sustainable houses, in a community. If policy makers and industry could meet this demand with <a href="https://theconversation.com/tackling-housing-unaffordability-a-10-point-national-plan-43628">land-use planning reform together with innovative housing forms and structured financing methods</a>, this could potentially address not only some aspects of housing affordability, but also improve urban sustainability. Perhaps the age of the McMansion really is coming to an end.

In the words of two respondents:

<blockquote>
I hope the growing interest will make tiny house living attractive enough to developers to build them. At an affordable price.
</blockquote>

<blockquote>
Having title to a property is a key in gaining finance, and the only locations where this might be possible is on suburban lots flagged for increased density including ‘multiple dwelling’ or small lot ‘dwelling houses’.
</blockquote>

<a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/heather-shearer-138992">Heather Shearer</a> is Research Fellow, Urban Research Program at <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/griffith-university">Griffith University</a>. This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="http://theconversation.com/australians-love-tiny-houses-so-why-arent-more-of-us-living-in-them-44230">original article</a>.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/44230/count.gif" width="1">

Lead image credit: <a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/timmurphywriter/tiny-homes#.vbWBo46nV">Buzzfeed</a>.
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Australians love tiny houses, so why aren't more of us living in them?

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By <a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/nicole-badstuber-173721">Nicole Badstuber</a>.

Complaining about public transport might seem as English as moaning about the weather. And it isn’t very British to shout about success. So what follows might seem odd, but here goes: Transport for London leads the way as an effective transport authority. There, said it. And it does so by building popular and political consensus around the importance and urgency of transport investment. Step by step, the city reliant on Victorian suburban railways and a Georgian underground railway increases its fitness to cater to the demands of a <a href="http://londondatastore-upload.s3.amazonaws.com/dataset/2014-round-population-projections/update-03-2015-2014rnd-trend-proj-results.pdf">growing 21st-century city</a>.

Transport for London has succeeded by creating an integrated transport authority from the fragmented patchwork of services it has inherited piece by piece since 2000. Today, <a href="https://www.tfl.gov.uk/cdn/static/cms/documents/aac-20150616-part-1-item05-annual-report.pdf">30m journeys</a> are completed on TfL’s network every day. A testament to the TfL model is that both Sydney and <a href="http://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/2009/0032/latest/DLM2044909">Auckland</a> adopted many aspects of it. Here are six lessons from its success that other cities can follow.

<h2>1. An integrated network</h2>

Under the iconic TfL brand, different public transport modes were integrated to provide end-to-end services. Unlike other transport authorities, TfL also manages the main roads and streets in London, as part of which it is in charge of cycling, taxi and mini cab regulation, traffic signalling and congestion charging.

A testament to the successful integration of the different types of transport on offer is the significant growth in public transport usage, in particular bus services. Since 2003, the percentage of car users has dropped by <a href="https://www.tfl.gov.uk/cdn/static/cms/documents/travel-in-london-report-7.pdf">ten points</a>. And the success of cycling policies and campaigners' efforts is reflected in the rapid increase in cycling uptake.

<figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/84896/area14mp/image-20150612-1456-sxr4gz.jpg"><img alt="" src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/84896/width668/image-20150612-1456-sxr4gz.jpg"></a>

<figcaption>Cycling’s on the up. <a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/londonmatt/16673560307/in/photolist-rpomzH-agi5sG-iFYfSM-omTwqx-9tKnhQ-dsn4kg-ndmAUA-bBFyjq-bdy3UM-egi9L9-ktDCb4-vZ2dU-vZtDq-8ANugY-e7LyaF-o7WqjH-ekQoB6-8AKpU6-nVEjBo-bh4oqV-8YfhpF-ee79Cg-ktDVa3-fipVEP-bWdJwN-9aHjdr-nY7TJR-9fmbJ3-7ENrhV-iYqVQQ-nEcyQr-8nmNox-8rLcQp-ijkPem-e9J5x6-dYBGCu-8RFQMC-dyZw1k-dhdNrN-nBQ1tm-fgLCDq-ee77sg-bovwFU-dbezkg-i9377Y-csud9o-dvCiXH-oF8mMd-ofohHa-g4ivP2">Matt Brown</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></figcaption></figure><h2>2. Easy to use</h2>

The transport system has become easy to use with the introduction of smart ticketing in the shape of the Oyster card in 2007 and cashless payment cards in 2014, allowing people to use their debit and credit cards.

By making data on their services openly available to app developers, many transport apps for London have been created which make the use of the network easy and accessible. <a href="http://www.tfl.gov.uk/maps/track/tube">Clear network maps at stations</a> and <a href="https://www.tfl.gov.uk/cdn/static/cms/documents/ll-yellow-book.pdf">street maps across the city</a> make getting around easier and more hassle-free.

Since TfL was created in 2000, investment in the system has created a more reliable and safe system. For example, on London Underground reliability has improved significantly, with the excess journey time due to delays reduced by <a href="https://www.tfl.gov.uk/cdn/static/cms/documents/travel-in-london-report-7.pdf">40% since 2000</a>. Clean and staffed stations create a safer and more welcoming environment for passengers to use.

<h2>3. Strong leadership</h2>

Key to TfL’s success is having a vocal and charismatic mayor to champion the transport agenda and secure political and financial support for it. The Mayor of London chairs the TfL board and currently spends <a href="https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/City%20Hall%20leaflet_2015.pdf">£11bn</a> – two-thirds of his annual budget – on transport via TfL. This is three times more than on policing <a href="https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/City%20Hall%20leaflet_2015.pdf">and 21 times more than on the fire brigade</a>. TfL’s revenues from fare and advertising cover only half its costs. To bridge the shortfall TfL relies on grants and borrowing. For these it is vital for TfL to drum up support across the political spectrum. Cross-party support ensures long-term funding security. It allows the transport authority to plan into the future and reduces the risk of projects being stopped midway through.

As a directly elected, executive mayor, London’s incumbent holds significant power. He has both the mandate and authority to realise his vision for the city’s transport. Without it, policies such as the congestion charging scheme in central London may not have been implemented. The potential downside, however, is that more contentious projects (the Emirates-sponsored cable car and the garden bridge spring to mind), both celebrated by the incumbent mayor, Boris Johnson, and supported by TfL funds can also gain traction.

<figure class="align-center"><img alt="" src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/84901/width668/image-20150612-1486-mt5x.jpg"><figcaption>The congestion charge was helped along by strong leadership. EPA/Andy Rain</figcaption></figure><h2>4. Unlocking potential</h2>

Transport is key to realising the mayor’s vision for London as a whole. With statutory responsibility for transport, land use and economic development, the three are seen as interdependent. Transport is therefore developed in a way that unlocks new development sites and facilitates the continued growth of the city’s industries.

The Olympics marked a shift in this thinking. TfL was no longer in the business of just transport service provision – instead, its role evolved to be part of wider mayoral objectives, whether to promote London as an attractive business centre, a liveable green city – or to tackle the housing crisis. By promoting its supportive role in the delivery of wider objectives, TfL becomes a key player in shaping London and strengthens its position for funding and involvement.

<figure class="align-center"><img alt="" src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/84877/width668/image-20150612-1456-q536vb.jpg"><figcaption>Charismatic, to say the least. EPA/Facundo Arrizabalaga</figcaption></figure><h2>5. Thinking strategically</h2>

Transport for London’s role is a strategic planner rather than an operator. With the exception of London Underground, which is wholly owned and run by TfL, the network is run on a concession system: TfL plans and manages the network, while private companies run the service.

For example, Transport for London will stipulate a bus services’ route, frequency and service hours. The private company will run the buses, employ the bus drivers and supervise the depot for a fee. London will carry the revenue risk, the risk that fare income will not cover the cost of the service provision. By taking on that risk TfL reduces the cost of the service provision. All buses, the Docklands Light Railway and the London Overground are provided in this way.

Even though TfL does not run the service, TfL branding is used on all concessions and worn by staff to present a integrated and recognisable network to the passenger.

<h2>6. Building on its successes</h2>

Transport for London seeks to take over more of the transport network within the Greater London boundary. Building on the success of the Olympics and London Overground, TfL is campaigning to take over more of the rail network in Greater London. A <a href="http://www.londonreconnections.com/assets/PUB_TfL_London_Rail_0311.pdf">recent report</a> indicates how much of the Greater London rail network TfL may take over:

<figure class="align-center"><img alt="" src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/84903/width668/image-20150612-1461-ub05sn.png"><figcaption>Possible TfL controlled services. <a class="source" href="http://www.londonreconnections.com/assets/PUB_TfL_London_Rail_0311.pdf">NERA consulting</a></figcaption></figure>In the immediate future TfL has set its sights on routes terminating outside the authority boundary in neighbouring counties of Kent and Surrey, southeast of London.

TfL’s London Overground provides a good model for further suburban rail takeovers. For just over £1 billion, a neglected urban railway infrastructure was combined to create an orbital network. The route boasts <a href="http://www.transportfocus.org.uk/research/publications/national-rail-passenger-survey-nrps-autumn-2014-train-operating-company-toc-best-in-class-report">high passenger satisfaction levels</a>, which reflect the investment in clean, well-staffed and safe stations that are fully integrated into the TfL transport network. Since TfL took over in 2007, passenger numbers have <a href="http://www.lorol.co.uk/go/about-us/improving-our-service">increased five fold</a> – <a href="https://www.tfl.gov.uk/cdn/static/cms/documents/Item08-020212-Board-London-Overground-Impact-Study.pdf">from 2.5 million</a> to <a href="http://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/public-transport-journeys-type-transport">13.5 million</a>.

There’s clearly a lot to learn from TfL’s success.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/42901/count.gif" width="1">

<a href="http://theconversation.com/profiles/nicole-badstuber-173721">Nicole Badstuber</a> is PhD Researcher and Research Assistant in Transport Policy and Governance at University College London at <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/ucl">UCL</a>. This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="http://theconversation.com/six-things-other-cities-can-learn-from-transport-for-londons-success-42901">original article</a>.
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