<p data-end="587" data-start="368">Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.</p>

<p data-end="778" data-start="589">The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.</p>

<p data-end="907" data-start="780"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.</p>

<p data-end="1052" data-start="909">The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.</p>

<p data-end="1311" data-start="1054">The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.</p>

<p data-end="1451" data-start="1313">The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.</p>

<p data-end="1676" data-start="1453">MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.</p>

<p data-end="1908" data-start="1678">Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.</p>

<p data-end="2142" data-start="1910">The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.</p>

<p data-end="2142" data-start="1910"><img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" /></p>

<p data-end="2308" data-start="2144">MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.</p>

<p data-end="2648" data-start="2310">"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.</p>

<p data-end="2797" data-start="2650">"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."</p>

<p data-end="2938" data-start="2799">The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.</p>

<p data-end="3216" data-start="2940">Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.</p>

<p data-end="3325" data-start="3218">Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.</p>

<p data-end="3442" data-start="3327">"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.</p>

<p data-end="3662" data-start="3444">"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."</p>

<p data-end="3818" data-start="3664">MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.</p>

<p data-end="4076" data-start="3820">"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.</p>

<p data-end="4375" data-start="4078">"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."</p>

<p data-end="4503" data-start="4377">Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.</p>

<p data-end="4741" data-start="4505">"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."</p>

<p data-end="4910" data-start="4743">The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.</p>

<p data-end="4951" data-start="4912">MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.</p>


Joel Robinson

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

<main data-perf-region="main">
<p data-end="600" data-start="394">Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.</p>

<p data-end="733" data-start="602">But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.</p>

<p data-end="970" data-start="735">Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.</p>

<p data-end="970" data-start="735">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]</p>

<p data-end="1159" data-start="972">The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.</p>

<p data-end="1357" data-start="1161">It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.</p>

<p data-end="1664" data-start="1517">Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.</p>

<p data-end="1826" data-start="1666">Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.</p>

<p data-end="1826" data-start="1666">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]</p>

<p data-end="2045" data-start="1828">Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.</p>

<p data-end="2269" data-start="2047">"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.</p>

<p data-end="2430" data-start="2271">A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.</p>

<p data-end="2606" data-start="2432">It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.</p>

<p data-end="2724" data-start="2608">At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.</p>

<p data-end="2892" data-start="2726">Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.</p>

<p data-end="2892" data-start="2726">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]</p>

<p data-end="3004" data-start="2894">Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.</p>

<p data-end="3214" data-start="3006">"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.</p>

<p data-end="3670" data-start="3538">&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="3670" data-start="3538">[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]</p>

<h3 data-end="3697" data-section-id="q3n5ak" data-start="3672">&nbsp;</h3>
</main>


Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

<p>A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.</p>

<p>Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.</p>

<p>Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]</p>

<p>The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.</p>

<p>Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.</p>

<p>Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]</p>

<p>Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.</p>

<p>The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.</p>

<p>“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]</p>

<p>“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”</p>

<p>The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]</p>


Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

<p data-end="535" data-start="324">Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.</p>

<p data-end="717" data-start="537">The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.</p>

<p data-end="918" data-start="719">The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.</p>

<p data-end="1131" data-start="920">PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.</p>

<p data-end="1131" data-start="920"><img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" /></p>

<p data-end="1318" data-start="1133">Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.</p>

<p data-end="1433" data-start="1320">The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.</p>

<p data-end="1658" data-start="1591">A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.</p>

<p data-end="1864" data-start="1660">More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.</p>

<p data-end="2011" data-start="1866">The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.</p>

<p data-end="2011" data-start="1866"><img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" /></p>

<p data-end="2191" data-start="2013">The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.</p>

<p data-end="2365" data-start="2193">PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.</p>

<p data-end="2473" data-start="2367">“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.</p>

<p data-end="2775" data-start="2475">“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”</p>

<p data-end="2943" data-start="2777">The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.</p>

<p data-end="3145" data-start="3001">PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.</p>


PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

<p>Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.</p>

<p>The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.</p>

<p>That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.</p>

<p>The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.</p>

<p>A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.</p>

<p>Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.</p>

<p>While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.</p>


First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

Sydney

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<p><span>The Christmas break is often a time when Australian expatriates buy properties back in Australia to eventually occupy as their home when their overseas assignments end. </span></p>
<p><span>"We expect given the low Australian dollar, that this summer will see many more expats actively looking for a property back here in Sydney," estate agent Vicki Laing noted. </span></p>
<p><span>"There are great buying opportunities for cashed-up expats given the softening state of the Sydney market."</span></p>
<p><span>The Australian dollar briefly dipped this year below US70¢ for the first time since April 2009, down from US81c in January 2015, and at US$1.10 in mid-2011. It was around 71c in mid-December.</span></p>
<p><span>Many see it going and staying in the 60s during 2016.</span></p>
<p><span>Vicki Laing said while the low dollar was having an emerging impact on the willingness of Australian expats to buy, there were many familial influences always motivating them to buy property in Australia including schooling issues.</span></p>
<p><span>"These are not influenced by the state of the dollar," she said.</span></p>
<p><span>Expat interest is beginning to emerge in select pockets highlighted in early spring when three of the five registered bidders for a Belle Manly auction offering were expats.</span></p>
<p><span>It sold for $4,550,000 under the hammer with the buyer from Singapore beating buyers from the UK and the USA for 8 Bower Street overlooking Cabbage Tree Bay.</span></p>
<p><span>But many agents aren't seeing any increase in expat numbers.</span></p>
<p><span>"I would like to say that the expats are back in strength given Australia’s currency is now at a six year low however that’s simply not the case," Mosman Richardson &amp; Wrench agent Robert Simeon said.</span></p>
<p><span> "With the Australian dollar weaker, property is around 25% cheaper than the A$0.94c it was just 24 months ago for those who are paid in foreign currencies," Robert Simeon noted.</span></p>
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Lower Aussie dollar tempting expats to buy back home

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<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<div id="post-body-4441479046766558951" class="post-body entry-content">
<p>Looks like someone forgot to tell Sydney's inner west about its alleged oversupply of apartments.</p>
<p><span>Erko.</span></p>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/04/22/Erko.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/04/22/Erko.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><br>St. Peters.</div>
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<br><br><div>You can also add to this Haberfield, Stanmore, Sydenham, Five Dock, Canada Bay, Abbotsford, Chiswick, etc. etc. all of which have remarkably tight vacancy rates of 1 per cent or under. </div>
<br><div>In fact, stretching the tarp out a bit further, and while on the subject, you might also add Surry Hills, Ultimo, Darlinghurst, Botany, Banksmeadow, Roseberry, Eastlakes, Redfern, Waverley, Bronte, Coogee, South Coogee, Pagewood, Maroubra...</div>
<br><div>Heck even Waterloo and Zetland have a vacancy rate of 0.5 per cent (OK, so that one might not a real number).</div>
<br><div>Maybe when we start to see some numbers beginning with a 4-handle it might start to get interesting, but if anything, for quality properties at least, the rental market actually seems to be tightening and rents rising. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Out west? Maybe a different story there, granted.<br><br><p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

No inner west Sydney rental oversupply: Pete Wargent

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<div>There are certainly some weird ideas out there about property supply.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Take the example of Pyrmont, if only because I lived there for many years, and as a property owner in the suburb, it's one of the locations I know pretty well. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>From time to time I've heard it said that suburbs like Pyrmont have "too much supply".</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I guess I can kind of see why you might think that if you'd just landed in Sydney, for with about 13,000 residents jammed in to one tight square kilometre, it's the densest suburb in Australia.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Thing is, the bit of the suburb where people want to live was developed about 25 years ago now!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There's been very little of note lately, though. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>From memory that was a little unit development on Pyrmont Bridge Road, and there's been a bit going on at Ultimo. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Oh, and then there was Lend Lease's 391 apartments in the new 40-storey tower at Darling Square, although they sold out in, what, five hours?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>If you were to fast forward to a decade's time I expect that Wentworth Park and White Bay will be developed with apartments, probably the fish markets too one day, while if Mirvac get their way there will be a commercial/residential tower on top of what is now the Harbourside tourist trap.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>These types of developments can take years to become a reality, though. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>At the end of the day, there isn't an oversupply issue here because more and more people want to live in the area by the year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Ultimately there are shedloads of people like me who'd enjoy a lazy 5-minute stroll into the city in the morning instead of driving through miles of petroleum fumes and vehicular logjam. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>After accounting for the inevitable frictional vacancies, vacancy rates in Pyrmont are essentially zero. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xBc8yaCwwn0/WG7AugNs4OI/AAAAAAAAhDw/tWnNA8e6WNEx3TzLnbLqoU-3wbKYLHcVgCLcB/s640/PYMRONT.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xBc8yaCwwn0/WG7AugNs4OI/AAAAAAAAhDw/tWnNA8e6WNEx3TzLnbLqoU-3wbKYLHcVgCLcB/s1600/PYMRONT.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xBc8yaCwwn0/WG7AugNs4OI/AAAAAAAAhDw/tWnNA8e6WNEx3TzLnbLqoU-3wbKYLHcVgCLcB/s640/PYMRONT.jpg" width="640" height="340"></a></p>
<div>Source: SQM Research</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There will be the new developments over time, but we're more or less always playing catch up with demand. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>You could say the same of, say, Coogee in the beachside eastern suburbs, or Manly to the north. Stacks of demand, not much of note being built. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Even in inner-city Erskineville, which has seen development aplenty both within the suburb and all around it, vacancy rates are very tight, because it's such a convenient and popular location to live in. Loads of demand.</div>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xyZE02fQnNE/WG7ArXnXA-I/AAAAAAAAhDk/9JLq0Ia5jekQu87qnSXqg03szTeCAM9LACLcB/s640/ERKO.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br><br><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xyZE02fQnNE/WG7ArXnXA-I/AAAAAAAAhDk/9JLq0Ia5jekQu87qnSXqg03szTeCAM9LACLcB/s1600/ERKO.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xyZE02fQnNE/WG7ArXnXA-I/AAAAAAAAhDk/9JLq0Ia5jekQu87qnSXqg03szTeCAM9LACLcB/s640/ERKO.jpg" width="640" height="342"></a></p>
<div> </div>
<div>Source: SQM Research</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Those are the kind of suburbs I don't mind owning property forever in, through the cyclical peaks and troughs.</div>
<p>Apartment glut<br><br> Now, this is not to say that things aren't a little different elsewhere.</p>
<div>Where exactly? Follow the cranes!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Wentworth Point is just a mass of new apartments, and without being unkind, I can't imagine what it would be like to live there.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I guess you'd soon get used to it, though, since as far as I could tell there's only one road in and out (like the Twiglet zone: "Easy to enter, impossible to leave")!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Vacancy rates are up, up and away...</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Ahyf5FSt0-A/WG7KfKxVcCI/AAAAAAAAhEA/zs6zwtQHABUHOvMA4r_2xAmvBDSm6quigCLcB/s640/Wentowrth%2Bpoint.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Ahyf5FSt0-A/WG7KfKxVcCI/AAAAAAAAhEA/zs6zwtQHABUHOvMA4r_2xAmvBDSm6quigCLcB/s1600/Wentowrth%2Bpoint.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Ahyf5FSt0-A/WG7KfKxVcCI/AAAAAAAAhEA/zs6zwtQHABUHOvMA4r_2xAmvBDSm6quigCLcB/s640/Wentowrth%2Bpoint.jpg" width="640" height="350"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Source: SQM Research</div>
<div> </div>
</div>
<div>In Parramatta, there have been high rise towers going up all over the show throughout the last year, a huge concentration risk of generic, high rise, shoebox apartments. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>With net multi-unit completions rising fast in 2015 and 2016, vacancy rates have already increased to well above 3 per cent, and there's always an inherent risk of understatement in reported vacancy rates at this stage in the construction cycle. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There were another 3,500 dwellings approved in the last financial year too, and overwhelmingly, they were multi-unit in nature at 2,750. Golly gosh...</div>
<p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TEDIDC6V4OI/WG7AtXKDdgI/AAAAAAAAhDo/chxzk69LiMoioCMQi8YHsNZgVBCO_LCqQCLcB/s640/PARRA.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><br><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TEDIDC6V4OI/WG7AtXKDdgI/AAAAAAAAhDo/chxzk69LiMoioCMQi8YHsNZgVBCO_LCqQCLcB/s1600/PARRA.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TEDIDC6V4OI/WG7AtXKDdgI/AAAAAAAAhDo/chxzk69LiMoioCMQi8YHsNZgVBCO_LCqQCLcB/s640/PARRA.jpg" width="640" height="356"></a><br><br> I also read somewhere this week that Blacktown is about to "boom".</p>
<div>Hmm, well that depends how you define 'boom', I guess! A construction boom, maybe. A boom in traffic congestion?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>That too! I'm somewhat less than convinced about there being a 2017 property boom in the conventional sense, though. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>One thing that you can say in favour of the LGA of Blacktown is that at least there is a level of diversity of development stock between apartments and detached dwellings. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Even so, with more than 11,700 dwellings approved over the last three years and a huge construction pipeline, it looks likely to me that vacancy rates will only be heading north putting more downward pressure on rates.</div>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TF-oPQjYAWw/WG7AuciggyI/AAAAAAAAhDs/TFT0_qDYPbIDlgfzuRJlH8xW199o2Y31gCLcB/s640/BLACKTOWN.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TF-oPQjYAWw/WG7AuciggyI/AAAAAAAAhDs/TFT0_qDYPbIDlgfzuRJlH8xW199o2Y31gCLcB/s1600/BLACKTOWN.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TF-oPQjYAWw/WG7AuciggyI/AAAAAAAAhDs/TFT0_qDYPbIDlgfzuRJlH8xW199o2Y31gCLcB/s640/BLACKTOWN.jpg" width="640" height="340"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>There are plenty more suburbs like Parramatta and Blacktown that face a surfeit of new stock as mentioned here previously, including in the Hills District. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And that's before we even mention the wild exuberance in Western Sydney house prices, with suburb records being smashed by the month in 2016 just as mortgage rates are now beginning to creep back up. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It'll be very interesting to watch all of this play out in 2017. </div>
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Stock versus flow in inner-Sydney apartments: Pete Wargent

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<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Two apparently contradictory things are happening in real estate – sales of residential land have fallen (a lot) but the prices being paid are rising (sharply).</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">In Sydney the rate of sale of residential lots has almost halved over three years, but prices (to quote a popular pun in real estate media) have gone through the roof.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">How can that be? Do the laws of supply and demand no longer apply in Australia?</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The answers to these questions lie at the heart of the affordability discussion.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">And a clue to the answers lie in an announcement earlier this week: that a New South Wales state government decision is set to add as much as $50,000 to the cost of new house-and-land packages in Sydney.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Prices for residential allotments and new dwellings are rising so sharply because the costs of creating new shovel-ready land, and the homes that are built there, are constantly rising.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Those costs are escalating primarily because the housing industry is a beloved cash cow for politicians everywhere. All three levels of government milk the housing sector for revenue like there’s no tomorrow.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian came to power mouthing platitudes about making housing affordability one of her key priorities. But her government regularly announces decisions that make the problem worse.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Gladys is not alone. This is an issue across the nation. Every time a state or territory government that brings down an annual budget, affordability gets worse because there are always new taxes, fees and charges imposed on the industry that creates dwellings for Australian households.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s2">On 19 February <em>The Australian</em> reported that “h</span><span class="s3">ouse prices on greenfield sites in Sydney could rise by as much as $50,000 following the NSW Government’s decision to uncap infrastructure levies on developers”.</span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s3">It reported: “The government is about to lift the cap on section 94 levies — how much councils charge developers for infrastructure. A recent application by Blacktown council for the Marsden Park development, successful with the government’s Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal, was for the $30,000 per home cap to be lifted to $87,000.</span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s3">“In August, the UDIA and the Property Council wrote to the Premier saying: “<em>Housing affordability is one of the NSW government’s three chief priorities announced when you became Premier this year. However there are several recent policy initiatives from the government that run contrary to achieving this outcome looking ahead. Changes to biodiversity regulations ... could add between $20,000 and $30,000 per lot while uncapping section 94 could add anywhere between $30,000 to $80,000 per dwelling.’’</em></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">When you understand that these decisions are a few among many that add to the cost structure of those who create new dwellings, you begin to see why real estate is so much more expensive in Sydney than elsewhere.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The latest Residential Land Report published by the Housing Industry Association shows that the median lot price in Sydney is more than double those in Brisbane and Adelaide, almost four times the median price in Hobart, and 55% higher than in Melbourne.</span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s3">The report found that the median vacant residential land lot price nationally hit an all-time high of $267,368 in the September 2017 Quarter, up 10.9 per cent on the same period in 2016.</span></p>
<p class="p5"><span class="s3">But land prices rose faster in the capital cities, up 12.8 per cent annually on average.</span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s3">Sydney was the most expensive capital with the cost per square metre at $1,051, followed by Perth ($752), Melbourne ($737) and Adelaide ($637), while Hobart was the cheapest ($180).</span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s3">HIA senior economist Shane Garrett says supply is struggling to keep pace with demand, leading to greater housing affordability issues.</span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s3">“The high cost of new residential land is at the heart of Australia’s housing affordability crisis,” he says. “The housing industry’s ability to ramp up the supply of new dwellings as demand dictates is hampered by the inconsistency of the land supply pipeline. The time it takes for land to be made available to builders is unnecessarily long.”</span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s3">These delays add to costs. Mix in the constant intrusion of new taxes, fees and charges, and you have the nub of the affordability issue.</span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s3">It’s easy to see why it’s difficult for find an affordable house in Sydney, when you pay $480,000 for the typical home site, even though the average lot size keeps gets smaller – and despite the reality that the number of lot sales fell to below 250,000 in the September 2017 Quarter, compared to around 470,000 in the December 2014 Quarter (but the median price has risen from $340,000 to $480,000 in that time).</span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s3">In Melbourne you pay $310,000 for the typical block of land, before considering the cost of building the house.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s3">“The ability of new home building activity to respond to this increased demand has been held back by insufficient supply of shovel-ready residential land,” says the Residential Land Report.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s3">So it means that the number of land sales has dropped not because of lower demand, but because of lower supply. That shortage, plus the rising cost structures imposed by state governments and local councils, means prices rise relentlessly.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s3">In capital city Australia, the number of lot sales peaked in mid-2015 and has been trending steadily downwards ever since. But the median lot price has risen from around $250,000 to over $310,000 in that time frame.</span></p>
<p class="p6"> </p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s3">T<em>erry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au</em></span></p>
<p class="p7"><span class="s4"><a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au"><em>ryder@hotspotting.com.au</em></a></span></p>
<p class="p8"><span class="s3"><em>twitter.com/hotspotting</em></span></p>
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Residential land sales fall but prices paid rise? Terry Ryder

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<p>The NSW Government has said it will spend another $400 million to make land for housing shovel-ready and $19 million to create a planning body to oversee a plan to build 664,000 homes in 15 years. </p>
<p>This addition to the Housing Acceleration Fund adds to the $566 million invested since its inception in 2012 and suggests the State Government subscribes to the shortage theory. </p>
<p>But there’s another perspective on dwelling supply in Sydney – one that points to looming oversupply because of an overbuilding of apartments, a syndrome that’s rapidly spreading to all the capital cities of Australia.</p>
<p>Dr Nigel Stapledon of the University of NSW is one of those who believes Sydney is building too many apartments. Stapledon’s views deserve respect as someone who has comprehensively researched real estate in Australia, including one vast assignment which examined prices and rents going back more than a century. </p>
<p>In a recent report, Stapledon said Sydney is about to be hit by a wave of new units, resulting in falling prices and rents in 2016. </p>
<p>Stapledon said 13,000 new units will hit the market in Sydney before the end of the year. And an average of 28,000 new units will be completed each year for the next three years. Stapledon said that figure is more than double the historical average – between 2005 and 2014 an average of 15,700 new units were completed each year. </p>
<p>The increase in supply could result in prices falling "north of 10%" within the next nine months, he said. The first sign of the slowdown will be an increase in rental vacancies followed by lower rent prices and a decline in investor demand.</p>
<p>His views make sense to me as recent history around Australia has shown that the one factor that can cause prices to fall significantly is an oversupply of dwellings. We’ve seen it recently in Gladstone in Queensland, the Hunter region in NSW and Port Hedland in WA, where a major lift in supply has been the big factor is sending a former boom into reverse. We’ve seen it in the past in apartment markets, including the Gold Coast and Melbourne.</p>
<p>If Stapledon is right, Sydney will join Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Darwin as capital cities which already have, or will soon have, serious gluts of inner-city apartments.</p>
<p>It seems every research entity relevant to Melbourne real estate has joined me in warning about the overbuilding of inner-city units. But new projects keep on coming. </p>
<p>The latest mega project is an application for six towers in Fishermans Bend, with 1,580 units in a $600 million development south of the West Gate Freeway. Meanwhile, a 600-unit project has been proposed for South Kingsville and VCAT has approved a 450-unit project at South Yarra.</p>
<p>Melbourne may be the population growth capital <span>(Melbourne added 95,600 to its population in 2014, compared to Sydney’s 84,200) </span>but there are limits to how many units are needed – and to how many can be flogged to Asian investors.</p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The issue with Melbourne’s unit over-kill is not just the number being built – it’s also the size of them. On 5 July, <em>The Age</em> reported that “units</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> with not enough space for basic activities such as eating at a dinner table” are planned for a new CBD tower. The 250m tower at 280 Queen Street by Brady Group has been branded too tall and bulky by council planners, who also found many of its 589 units were under-sized. </span></p>
<p>The planners’ report said: "Many of the units are too small to allow for basic daily activities and functions such as eating at a dining table, or having a dressing table in the bedroom whilst maintaining access to the wardrobe." </p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Although there will be 46 three-bedroom units, the planners said most were less than 70m</span><sup style="line-height: 1.3em;">2</sup><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> - the minimum size for a two-bedroom unit in Sydney. </span></p>
<p>According to council research, many bedrooms in Melbourne's high-rises do not have natural light. There’s a growing trend towards small floor plans, with 40% of the city's units less than 50m<sup>2</sup>. </p>
<p>For all the above reasons, Melbourne inner-city apartments are shaping as very bad investments. You have wonder about the mentality of the investors who are lining up to buy them. Research is clearly not part of their process.</p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">And it looks like Sydney is heading down the same slippery slope to surplus.</span></p>
<p><em>TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a> </em></p>
<p class="Normal"><span>Terry was recently joined by </span><em>Property Observer</em><span> editor at large Jonathan Chancellor for a webinar on why research is the key to successful property investing in 2015. You can download slides and audio from the webinar </span>here<span>.</span></p>
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The slippery slope to Sydney and Melbourne apartment surplus: Terry Ryder

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<p><span>As Sydney’s median house price appear headed for the $1,000,000 mark and as demand for inner-city apartments is at record levels, I would like to share some recent figures reflecting the state of the Manhattan Apartment market, where some of the prices are, according to the locals approaching ‘eye watering’ levels.</span></p>
<p><span>But first there’s a need to explain the differences between Co-ops and Condos, with a few key points.</span></p>
<p><span><strong>Co-ops</strong></span></p>
<p><span>Cooperatives or co-ops are common in New York City and they account for approximately 80% of apartment stock, these buildings are owned by an apartment corporation. Individuals do not actually “own” their apartments as they would in the case of “real” property, but own “shares” in the corporation, which entitles them to a long-term “proprietary lease.” The tenant-owner pays a portion of building expenses (which can include an underlying mortgage on the entire building) determined by the number of shares held in the corporation. Share amounts are dictated by apartment size and floor level. Co-ops are similar to our company title.</span></p>
<p><span><strong>Condos</strong></span></p>
<p><span>Condominiums – condos are common throughout the USA, but they are a rather new concept for New York City. A condominium apartment in Manhattan is real property and more or less directly like an apartment in Australia and they are usually easier to finance with lower deposit requirements.</span></p>
<p><span>With that brief summary in mind, the figures I refer to are for the second quarter 2015 and according to the Elliman Report [The Elliman Report, is private (non-official) research produced by Douglas Elliman in conjunction with Miller Samuel, a leading independent appraisal firm, and several other firms also produce these reports.] new price records were set for the average sale price, median co-op sale price, the average price per square foot for new developments, and the average price for luxury apartments, all jumped.</span></p>
<p><span>According to the report the average sale price for Manhattan is now a $1.87 million (AUD$2.487m*), and that’s 11.4% higher than a year ago. Of interest however is the fact that this growth is not being lead by luxury new developments, as was the case last year.</span></p>
<p><span>The record average and median price was set for the co-op market, and the established condo market average sale price also set a record, (with new development removed from the mix) the average, median, and price per square foot for resale condos, all set records making Manhattan apartments to quote ‘really expensive.’</span></p>
<p><span>Which might well be an understatement because the report puts the median sale price for all apartments at $980,000, (AUD $1.303m) which equals the second highest on record. While other published reports put the median slightly lower, at US$960,000 – $930,000, its worth keeping in mind that the current median record, US$1.025 million (AUD$1.363) was set in the pre-GFC market and peaked during the second quarter of 2008.</span></p>
<p><span>According to the Elliman Report the local co-op market, which is not swayed by new developments at all, saw some big price gains. The median price jumped nearly 10% from last year to US$795,000. The condo (apartment) market also set new records across the board, with the median price hitting US$1.39 million.</span></p>
<p><span>Compared to the first quarter, closings on new development condos sharply dropped, (keep in mind that in the USA sales including project sales are conducted very differently from our local market, auctions are rare and there is more negotiation involved with both sellers and buyers agents). Outside of the new project market, prices are transparent, when published prices are set, project prices are not published in the same way, with buyers being able to negotiate with the developer and then set a ‘closing’ price for the condo in a new project.</span></p>
<p><span>Currently Sydney has a lot of new apartment projects coming onto the market, while in these figures for Manhattan new projects accounted for just 8% of market transactions. Still new projects there stayed on trend and the average price per square foot set a new record, peaking at $2,011/sq. foot at approximately $22,300/sqm this is on a par with some new Sydney CBD projects and in some cases below our local price trends.</span></p>
<p><span><strong>Tight Supply</strong></span></p>
<p><span>Local commentators attribute these strong price gains to a lack of supply with new supply apparently ‘stalling’. Local market reports note that after bottoming out at the end of 2013, numbers expanded last year, but during the second quarter, supply only increased by a modest 1.3% over last year.</span></p>
<p><span>What’s also interesting is that apartments in the lower price range (below US$1 million) decreased, while those priced at $3 million or above saw steady gains. However the number of sales were down 20% compared to last year, and a lack of supply is seen as part of the reason volume dropped but the trend is still above average. According the Elliman report last year, the number of sales had spiked drastically thanks to pent-up demand that accumulated as the local economy improved after the financial collapse and things have now evened out.</span></p>
<p><span>Tight supply plus fewer ‘cheap apartments’ has been the perfect recipe for bidding wars, and that’s exactly what is happening. The report notes that more than half of all sales closed were at or above the asking price. The result was the highest such ratio since the financial crisis began. The Elliman report expects local price pressures will continue for the rest of the year and will eclipse 2014.</span></p>
<p><span><strong>Incomes Stall Impacting Affordability</strong></span></p>
<p><span>Like us there are concerns in this market over affordability and according to some comments in NYC this is crisis in the main caused by a lack of growth in incomes. The NYC Median Home Price Relative to Annual Income Ratio is now close to 7.0, whereas it used to be 5.0, the national ratio is now 3.7 years.</span></p>
<p><span>In Australia the figures look much worse, if you take (according to the ABS figures) average annual full-time income at $74,724 and assume, rather optimistically a house price of $650,000 then the ratio here is 8.6, well above the NYC ration. It’s no surprise then that according to figures from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that Australia has the third highest house price-to-income ratio in the world, after Belgium, Canada comes Australia then followed by Norway and Sweden. But we are not alone and post the GFC the IMF found 14 out of 24 developed economies examined still have above-average house price-to-income ratios.</span></p>
<p><span>In the US, as a result stagnant wage growth, weak household formation and tight credit are the reason why according to some local commentators, like Australia the US is having a national discussion around affordable housing, with homeownership rates falling and where rental prices are rising. While low interest rates are helping to drive demand here, in the US credit terms are less favourable in part because low-doc loans have now all but gone from the market. Most lenders also require a 20% deposit and or some degree of mortgage insurance, but we need to keep in mind that while home loan interest is a tax deduction, insurance premiums are not.</span></p>
<p><span><strong>The NYC – Sydney Comparison</strong></span></p>
<p><span>While average and median prices might not reflect the full spectrum of any market it appears that NYC and Sydney are similar in one way. What the figures show is that the apartment market in NYC is operating at a level of intensity above the balance of the country, and that also applies to Sydney.</span></p>
<p><span>Sydney’s demand and prices are running ahead of most other Australian cities, and a so as a result we may be seeing a two-tire market emerging, that is with Sydney, in particular the inner-city areas very active and then other parts of Australia less so.</span></p>
<p><span>And it appears that our local Planning Minister Rob Stokes is fairly comfortable with this situation. Last week speaking at an industry event Minister Stokes suggested that Sydney forget comparisons with Melbourne or Brisbane, rather he expressed the view that Sydneysiders should compare their city with global leaders such as London, New York, Singapore and even Dubai and from some of the figures outlined we can see we already share some aspects between our apartment markets.</span></p>
<p><span>According to the minister “We have a generational opportunity to reshape Sydney and we should seize it with vigour,” adding that Sydney had to “confront the institutional and government challenges” that had crippled its progress for decades, starting with the “silo thinking of government departments and the 43 local governments” across the city.</span></p>
<p><span>It was very encouraging to hear Rob Stokes further encourage Sydney’s growth and international ambitions.</span></p>
<p><em>Peter Chittenden is managing director for residential of Colliers International. He can be contacted <a href="https://www.projectagenda.com.au/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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Comparing New York property to the Sydney market: Peter Chittenden

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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Sydney’s three years of price growth has dragged the city up the capital city rankings for long-term capital growth, but only as high as fourth. </span></p>
<p>Six months ago, it ranked sixth among the eight capital cities and still lags behind Perth, Melbourne and Darwin. This is for average annual growth in house prices over the past 10 years, which we survey regularly for the Capital Growth Superstars report.</p>
<p>Fourteen of Sydney’s Top 20 suburbs have long-term growth rates below 8% per year - not nearly good enough to make the Top 20 lists for Melbourne, Perth or Darwin.</p>
<p>No suburb in the vast Sydney metropolitan area has a double-digit growth rate. The best is Pemulwuy (median price $720,000) in the city’s western suburbs, with a long-term growth rate of 9.5% per year. Most of the suburbs in the Top 20 have growth rates in the 7.0% to 8.0% range.</p>
<p>At first glance, it appears that the Top End suburbs dominate Sydney’s Top 20 list, as 19 of the Top 20 (all except Pemulwuy) have median prices above $1 million. But, in fact, these are mostly suburbs a tier below the top end. </p>
<p>In Sydney, the 15 most expensive suburbs all have median house prices above $2 million. None of the 20 most expensive suburbs (all with median prices above $1.9 million) make the Sydney’s Top 20 list for long-term capital growth. Most of them have growth rates below 5% per year.</p>
<p>Sydney’s Top 20 is dominated by 15 suburbs in the $1 million to $1.5 million range, which is Sydney’s second tier market.</p>
<p>This is a change from other surveys in the past three years, which have strongly featured the cheaper end of the Sydney metropolitan market. The growth of the past 2-3 years has elevated some of the more expensive areas.</p>
<p>The outstanding precinct is the Ryde LGA on the lower North Shore, which has four suburbs in the city Top 20. Ryde is the only municipality with more than two suburbs in the Top 20. Its four top suburbs are Eastwood, Ryde, Denistone East and West Ryde, all with median prices in the $1.1 million to $1.3 million range.</p>
<p>The prestige end of the market, suburbs with median house prices above $2 million, continues to deliver poor capital growth rates. Indeed, three of the most expensive suburbs of Sydney are included in the Bottom 20 list of suburbs with the worst growth rates in the city.</p>
<p>Vaucluse (median $3.4 million), Palm Beach (median $2.6 million) and Clontarf (median $2.5 million) all have growth rates of 2.1% per year or less. Clontarf’s 1.3% grow rate means it would take 55 years for property to double in value (compared to eight years for Pemulwuy, which has Sydney’s best growth rate).</p>
<p>There are four other million-dollar suburbs on the Bottom 20 list.</p>
<p>The worst precinct in Sydney for capital growth is the Sutherland LGA in the south of the metropolitan area – it has four suburbs (Burraneer, Bundeena, Lilli Pilli and Illawong) on the Bottom 20 list, all with growth rates below 2% per year.</p>
<p>Sydney’s Top 10 for long-term capital growth is:-</p>
<p>1 Pemulwuy 9.5%</p>
<p>2 Waitara 9.2%</p>
<p>3 Homebush 8.7%</p>
<p>4 Burwood 8.6%</p>
<p>5 Bondi 8.0%</p>
<p>6 Darlington 8.0%</p>
<p>7 Hurstville 7.8%</p>
<p>8 North Willoughby 7.8%</p>
<p>9 Haberfield 7.6%</p>
<p>10 Hurlstone Park 7.6%</p>
<p><em>TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a> </em></p>
<p class="Normal"><span>Terry was recently joined by </span><em>Property Observer</em><span> editor at large Jonathan Chancellor for a webinar on why research is the key to successful property investing in 2015. You can download slides and audio from the webinar </span>here<span>.</span></p>
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Sydney's top 20 suburbs for growth rates: Terry Ryder

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<div>Low interest rates have helped to spark one of the biggest housing booms Sydney has seen.<br><br>Sydney's median house price was up 22.9% or approximately $200,000 in the year to June 2015, following a massive 8.4% rise in the second quarter of the year.</div>
<div> </div>
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<em>Domain Group</em>'s data:</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/07/23/Sydney.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div><img src="/images/2015/07/23/Sydney.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<div>
<div id="post-body-569318625860302453" class="post-body entry-content">Media reports a few viewpoints:<br><br>Dr Andrew Wilson:<br><br><div>"The double-whammy of the lowest interest rates since the 1960s and an investor frenzy has seen Sydney's median house price smash through the magic $1 million mark for the first time.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Domain's senior economist, Dr Andrew Wilson, says house prices leapt an extraordinary 8.4% over the June quarter to $1,000,616.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"It's the highest rate of growth since the late 1980s," Dr Wilson said.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">"And it's because of low interest rates and they're going lower, lower and lower."</span></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The median house price has increased by almost $200,000 in a year or 22.9%, which is one of the highest annual growth rates ever recorded by the city. <br><br>Dr Wilson said it exceeded the boom time results of 2001 and 2002.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>He attributed the huge growth to the high level of investor activity, with the $6.4 billion in loans approved over May – a record. <br><br>"Sixty-two per cent of the housing market loan share is now investors – another record – and an increase of 27 per cent over the first five months of this year compared with the first five months of last year."</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Will Hampson:</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"Auctioneer Will Hampson has presided at auctions going $200,000, $300,000 and even $500,000 over reserve this year with suburb records often being smashed."</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But even he described the $1 million median house price and the rate of growth as "incredible".</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"Each year for the past three years the auction market has been so strong," Mr Hampson said.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>He says auction listings are up 50 per cent up on last year for August and he's also tipping a strong spring.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"Conditions are perfect because interest rates are at record lows and there's a shortage of supply in many pockets," Mr Hampson said.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"A lot of buyers want to buy in a particular suburb – so perhaps Balmain, Mosman or Double Bay ... if they want to buy in those suburbs they are going to have to pay the price."</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The rate of growth is sure to spark fresh suggestions that the market is overheating but Mr Hampson hosed down such talk. "The market is not going to collapse ... even if it does adjust slightly, there's a massive amount of both local and foreign investment."</div>
<div> </div>
<div>...&amp; McGrath:</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"McGrath chief executive John McGrath said Sydney had proven itself to be one of the most resilient property markets in the world, with long-term fundamentals underpinning the market.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"The boom will end at some point, but that doesn't mean price growth will end, but rather continue in a more moderate fashion," Mr McGrath said."</div>
<div> </div>
</div>
<div class="post-footer">
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
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Sydney boom accelerates: Pete Wargent

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<div>Sydney house prices have accelerated to be up by 20.36% over the past year to June 2015, according to Residex.</div>
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<div>Sydney house prices jumped by 6.94% for the past quarter alone.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Rents for houses in Sydney also boomed over past year on this index, up 12.4% to $680/week. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sydney unit prices were up 15.44%, with rents up 6.67% to $560/week.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Not too much doing elsewhere, with prices down marginally for the quarter in Adelaide, and declining moderately over the past year in Perth and Darwin. </div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/08/04/T1_Stats_Update.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div><img src="/images/2015/08/04/T1_Stats_Update.jpg" alt=""></div>
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Sydney achieves record growth: Pete Wargent

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<div>There are multiple data sources for tracking property markets, but the ABS Residential Property Price Indexes series is always one worth analysing, particularly since the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) itself follows it closely.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Established house prices rose by +2.2% in the third quarter to be +11.4% higher over the past 12 months, while attached dwellings rose by +1.4% to be +8.7 % higher over the year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>While averages mask endless underlying trends, the long run data implies that on average over the past dozen years established house prices (+5.6% per annum) have been outperforming attached dwellings (+4.8% per annum), commensurate with lower initial spot yields. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/15/Resi1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/15/Resi1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>Let's step today's the key figures in three short parts.</span><br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 1 - Price indexes</span></strong><br><br><div>The star performers over the past year have been established houses in Sydney (+21.9%) and attached dwellings in the same city (+15.8%).</div>
<div>
<br>Established house prices in Melbourne have also performed strongly to be up by +11.5% over the year, but on average attached dwellings price growth in the Victorian capital has been more contained at +4.5%, reflective of the volume of new supply. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/15/Resi2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/15/Resi2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Dwelling prices over the year have performed solidly in Brisbane (+3.8 per cent), Canberra (+4.0 per cent), Adelaide (+3.5 per cent), and Hobart (+1.7 per cent).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>On the other hand there have been moderate declines to date in Darwin (-2.0 per cent) and Perth (-3.3 per cent), although interestingly Domain Group forecasts moderate price growth to return to both cities in 2016, whereas I have previously argued that prices may follow rents down in the next calendar year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Since the end of 2008 Sydney (+83 per cent) and Melbourne (+51 per cent) have outperformed impressively, while prices are also now rising in Brisbane, Adelaide, Canberra, and Hobart. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/15/Resi3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/15/Resi3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 2 - Stock value</span></strong><br><br><div>Over the past three years the total value of dwelling stock has surged +32 per cent or +$1.42 trillion higher, to a total stock value of $5.86 trillion.</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/12/16/Resi4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/16/Resi4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>More than 90 per cent of the gains in the value of dwelling stock over those three years have been accounted for by New South Wales (+$756 billion), Victoria (+$390 billion), and Queensland (+$131 billion), with the other states and territories accounting for the remaining +$141 billion. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/16/Resi5.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/12/16/Resi5.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Mean dwelling prices over the past three years have exploded in New South Wales (+$236,000), and increased strongly in Victoria (+$133,000). </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/16/Resi6.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/12/16/Resi6.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>In fact, despite the recent declines in Western Australia and the Northern Territory noted above, the mean dwelling price has moved some way higher across all states and territories across a three year timeframe.</div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 3 - Volume of dwelling stock</span></strong><br><br><div>The final chart below helps to explain why although an increase in the dwelling supply can accentuate market downturns - particularly in smaller towns and cities - in the larger cities an increase in building activity on its own can take years to dampen prices. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>One reason for this is that new builds only ever account for a fraction of transactions in a given year, and therefore the level of available supply at any point in time is rather driven by the established or "second hand" market (another reason is that over-simplified views of the market fail to take account of how well the new supply matches demand at the LGA, suburb, and household formation level).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the past four years, while the Australian Capital Territory (+10.9 per cent) and the Northern Territory (+10.1 per cent) have increased their respective number of dwellings materially, this is of course somewhat harder to achieve when you are starting from a higher base figure.</div>
<div>
<br>Despite this, Western Australia (+8.6 per cent) and Victoria (+7.9 per cent) have made valiant attempts to increase the total supply of dwellings since the the equivalent quarter 2011 according to the ABS data series.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/16/Resi7.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/16/Resi7.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>On the other hand, the ABS figures show that the number of New South Wales dwellings has increased by only +4.4 per cent over the past four years, which may go some of the way to explaining why Sydney's rental market has remained relatively tight to date, despite alleged overbuilding.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the past three years the population of Greater Sydney has increased by around +230,000, and thus while it is easy enough to find localised areas of oversupply, after accounting for stock obsolescence, demolitions, and dwelling approvals that never make it to completion, at the city level at least the market remains relatively balanced in terms of dwelling supply (at least, for now).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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</div>
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