<p data-end="587" data-start="368">Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.</p>

<p data-end="778" data-start="589">The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.</p>

<p data-end="907" data-start="780"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.</p>

<p data-end="1052" data-start="909">The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.</p>

<p data-end="1311" data-start="1054">The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.</p>

<p data-end="1451" data-start="1313">The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.</p>

<p data-end="1676" data-start="1453">MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.</p>

<p data-end="1908" data-start="1678">Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.</p>

<p data-end="2142" data-start="1910">The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.</p>

<p data-end="2142" data-start="1910"><img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" /></p>

<p data-end="2308" data-start="2144">MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.</p>

<p data-end="2648" data-start="2310">"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.</p>

<p data-end="2797" data-start="2650">"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."</p>

<p data-end="2938" data-start="2799">The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.</p>

<p data-end="3216" data-start="2940">Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.</p>

<p data-end="3325" data-start="3218">Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.</p>

<p data-end="3442" data-start="3327">"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.</p>

<p data-end="3662" data-start="3444">"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."</p>

<p data-end="3818" data-start="3664">MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.</p>

<p data-end="4076" data-start="3820">"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.</p>

<p data-end="4375" data-start="4078">"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."</p>

<p data-end="4503" data-start="4377">Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.</p>

<p data-end="4741" data-start="4505">"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."</p>

<p data-end="4910" data-start="4743">The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.</p>

<p data-end="4951" data-start="4912">MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.</p>


Joel Robinson

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

<main data-perf-region="main">
<p data-end="600" data-start="394">Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.</p>

<p data-end="733" data-start="602">But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.</p>

<p data-end="970" data-start="735">Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.</p>

<p data-end="970" data-start="735">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]</p>

<p data-end="1159" data-start="972">The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.</p>

<p data-end="1357" data-start="1161">It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.</p>

<p data-end="1664" data-start="1517">Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.</p>

<p data-end="1826" data-start="1666">Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.</p>

<p data-end="1826" data-start="1666">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]</p>

<p data-end="2045" data-start="1828">Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.</p>

<p data-end="2269" data-start="2047">"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.</p>

<p data-end="2430" data-start="2271">A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.</p>

<p data-end="2606" data-start="2432">It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.</p>

<p data-end="2724" data-start="2608">At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.</p>

<p data-end="2892" data-start="2726">Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.</p>

<p data-end="2892" data-start="2726">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]</p>

<p data-end="3004" data-start="2894">Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.</p>

<p data-end="3214" data-start="3006">"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.</p>

<p data-end="3670" data-start="3538">&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="3670" data-start="3538">[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]</p>

<h3 data-end="3697" data-section-id="q3n5ak" data-start="3672">&nbsp;</h3>
</main>


Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

<p>A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.</p>

<p>Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.</p>

<p>Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]</p>

<p>The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.</p>

<p>Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.</p>

<p>Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]</p>

<p>Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.</p>

<p>The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.</p>

<p>“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]</p>

<p>“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”</p>

<p>The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]</p>


Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

<p data-end="535" data-start="324">Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.</p>

<p data-end="717" data-start="537">The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.</p>

<p data-end="918" data-start="719">The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.</p>

<p data-end="1131" data-start="920">PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.</p>

<p data-end="1131" data-start="920"><img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" /></p>

<p data-end="1318" data-start="1133">Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.</p>

<p data-end="1433" data-start="1320">The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.</p>

<p data-end="1658" data-start="1591">A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.</p>

<p data-end="1864" data-start="1660">More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.</p>

<p data-end="2011" data-start="1866">The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.</p>

<p data-end="2011" data-start="1866"><img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" /></p>

<p data-end="2191" data-start="2013">The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.</p>

<p data-end="2365" data-start="2193">PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.</p>

<p data-end="2473" data-start="2367">“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.</p>

<p data-end="2775" data-start="2475">“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”</p>

<p data-end="2943" data-start="2777">The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.</p>

<p data-end="3145" data-start="3001">PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.</p>


PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

<p>Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.</p>

<p>The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.</p>

<p>That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.</p>

<p>The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.</p>

<p>A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.</p>

<p>Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.</p>

<p>While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.</p>


First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

Sydney

<html><body>
<p><span>The list of the most exclusive suburbs in each state reiterates just how much more expensive real estate is in Sydney relative to the rest of the country.</span></p>
<p><span>Sydney is by far and away the nation’s most expensive housing market. To put this into some perspective we have looked at the top decile of selling prices over the three months to January 2016. A decile simply divides a group into ten equal parts. What this means is if there were 20 sales over the three months and we lined the sales up from lowest to highest we would take the 18th price as a representation of the most expensive segment of the market.</span></p>
<p><span>Over the three months to January 2016, the 90th percentile price of a house in the city was $1.5 million and the 90th percentile unit price was $980,000.  Over the same period, the two capital cities with the next highest 90th percentile house price was Melbourne at a still high but much lower $1,050,000.  This highlights just how much more expensive housing is in Sydney and to a lesser degree Melbourne is relative to other capital cities.  As an example the next highest 90th percentile price is Perth at $870,000.</span></p>
<div>
<h3>90th percentile price of houses and units 3 months to January 2016</h3>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/15/2016-03-21--img1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/04/15/2016-03-21--img1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>There is also a large difference between the cost of premium housing in capital cities and non-capital cities.  The 90th percentile house price across the combined capital cities is $1,010,000 compared to $675,000 in combined regional markets.  Similarly, 90th percentile unit prices are $830,000 in the combined capital cities compared to $600,000 outside of the capitals.  This data points to the fact that non-capital city areas are the great un-tapped resource for more affordable housing.  Of course employment opportunities in these areas are the main factor holding back the regional areas of the country.</p>
<p>The table below highlights the five most expensive suburbs for both houses and units in each state.  The data is based on median values and we have only included suburbs that had at least 10 sales over the 12 months to January 2016.<br><br></p>
<h3>Suburbs with most expensive median values, January 2016</h3>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/15/2016-03-21--img2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/04/15/2016-03-21--img2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The Sydney premium becomes very evident when we look at the most expensive suburbs in each state based on median values.  The data shows the 5 most expensive suburbs for houses in NSW (all of which are in Sydney) all have a median value of more than $4 million.  In comparison, the most expensive suburbs for houses in Vic and WA are more than $3 million, in SA it is more than $2 million, in Qld, NT and ACT it is more than $1 million and in Tas it is less than $850,000.</p>
<p>Similarly for units, all of the 5 most expensive suburbs in NSW (Sydney) have a median values of more than $1 million.  Tennyson in Brisbane is the only other suburb outside of Sydney with a median unit value of more than $1 million.</p>
<p>There is a large premium for housing in our largest city.  Of course the city also has an abundance of waterfront homes which contributes to the higher overall cost of housing.  While employment opportunities remain significant in Sydney and employers limit the opportunities for workers to work remotely we would expect that a substantial Sydney premium will remain.  Elsewhere housing is generally much more affordable but of course not everyone has a choice when it comes to potentially leaving Sydney and heading to another area of the country where housing is cheaper.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.</em></p>
</div>
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Sydney’s premium suburbs are much more expensive than anywhere else: Cameron Kusher

<html><body>
<p><span>There were a total of 249,133 residential properties available for sale across Australia as at the week ending 29 November 2015, with 110,884 capital city properties available for sale, indicating that total stock levels are -1.7% lower than last year across the combined capital cities and -2.8% lower nationally. </span></p>
<p><span>Over the most recent four week period, the majority of listings newly added to the market were within the capital cities, with 30,539 new advertisements, compared to 18,104 in regional towns, which means 63% of new listings were in capital cities, while across the total stock pool, capital city listings account for just 45% of available properties</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/12/7/201511-Listings-table.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/12/7/201511-Listings-table.jpg" alt="" width="696" height="155"></span></p>
<p> </p>
<ul>
<li>
<strong>Melbourne</strong> – 9,477, which is 2.5 per cent higher compared to the same period last year (9,246)</li>
<li>
<strong>Adelaide</strong> – 2,537, which is 1.5 per cent higher compared to the same period last year (2,500)</li>
<li>
<strong>Canberra</strong> – 756, which is 16 per cent higher compared to the same period last year (652)</li>
</ul>
<p>While in terms of total stock, levels are higher, relative to last year, in <strong>Sydney</strong>, <strong>Perth </strong>and <strong>Darwin</strong>. While Perth and Darwin’s total stock levels have continuously been recorded at a higher volume compared to the relative period one week ago for the entirety of 2015, this has only been the case since mid-September in Sydney.</p>
<p>At one point this month, the total available stock in Sydney was the greatest it has been since late 2011, and based on the four weeks ending 29 November, there were a total of 24,579 residential Sydney properties available for sale, the highest volume of listings since late 2013, giving buyers plenty of choice across the Sydney market.</p>
<p>To put this further into perspective, three months ago, at the end of August, there were just over 19,000 Sydney properties listed for sale. Stock levels have been increasing due to two things, firstly the increase in new listings being added to the market each week, which has been trending upwards since May this year, likely attributed to the increase in home values across the city and associated vendor confidence, while since March sales volumes across the city have generally been slowing.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/12/7/201511-Capital-City.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/12/7/201511-Capital-City.jpg" alt="" width="778" height="294"></p>
<p><span>Nationally, total listings are -2.8 per cent lower than they were one year ago. Across South Australia, the number of total listings is virtually the same as one year ago, while in the Australian Capital Territory, total listings are just -1.9 per cent lower. Across all the other states and territories, the difference between total stock this year relative to last year is more prominent, with Northern Territory (+9.7 per cent) and Tasmania (-7.0 per cent) showing vast differences.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/12/7/201511-National.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/12/7/201511-National.jpg" alt="" width="650" height="246"></span></p>
<p><span> </span></p>
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smiller-vwPjRHTkST

High volume of Sydney stock available for sale: CoreLogic RP Data's Shana Miller

<html><body>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>It had to happen sooner or later when we start to see real estate sales reach levels never witnessed before, which is exactly what is happening now on Sydney’s lower north shore where sale prices are running amok.</p>
<p>The saying that real estate is not an exacting science is so true when one looks closely at real estate prices where the heat is now a blow torch and property valuers are having a lot of difficulty justifying selling prices to the lenders. For example; on a recent sale we made the valuer appointed by the lender submitted his valuation 10 per cent below the purchase price.</p>
<p>These are markets we have never seen where in the past Sydney would boom as one. This time what we have seen are scattered booms, with the other areas reporting solid results with nothing out of the ordinary.</p>
<p>One million dollar markets have jumped to two million dollar markets; two million dollar markets are now three and three million dollar markets are now four million dollars and so on. I must admit the progression from slow and steady to fast and furious has caught many by surprise although for purchasers we are now in the final selling stages for 2016.</p>
<p>To the untrained eye, it seemed like just another property market run. To the trained however, it resembles a “Houston, we have a problem.” For example, clearance rates on the lower north shore are now well into the 90 per cent zone which is the highest recorded in years.</p>
<p>It will be interesting to watch how the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) responds following their last commentary on Melbourne Cup Day. “In the established housing market, conditions had eased relative to a year earlier, although there had been some signs that conditions had strengthened a little more recently. Housing price growth in Sydney and Melbourne had increased in recent months and auction clearance rates in these two cities had risen.</p>
<p>In contrast, turnover and housing credit growth had been noticeably lower than a year earlier and the value of housing loan approvals had been little changed in recent months. Conditions in the rental market had continued to soften, particularly in Perth, where population growth had been easing and the rental vacancy rate had risen.’’</p>
<p>When you look at the respective market data we are witnessing some amazing data shifts. In Mosman, CoreLogic report that the average hold period is now out to 10.5 years where 3 years ago this sat at 7.5 years, so next year we can expect to see this blow out further to 12.5 years. The percentage of stock is another fascinating statistic where over the past year the percentage of stock offered is down to an all-time low for houses at 5.5 percent where ten years ago it sat at 10.00 per cent.</p>
<p>For apartments in Mosman the average hold is getting longer and now sits at 9.8 years and the percentage of stock on the market sits at a record low of 3.4 percent. These are the property accelerants that are driving prices up as stock levels are at record lows across Sydney. Whilst it is being reported that Sydney prices have climbed another 12.1 percent over the last year some areas would be double that plus some more.</p>
<p>Last week, Sydney boasted a clearance rate of 84.2 percent, although CoreLogic reported the number of properties currently listed for sale in Sydney was 10.1 percent down from the same period last year.</p>
<p>Now this is where it gets confusing when you look at household debt which is peaking at record highs and some suggesting that this is to be expected with a record low cash rate. How could this be expected when we have never had a record low cash rate before?</p>
<p>Lending remains strong and currently sits well above inflation and wage growth. Although it must be said that our banks are now in a much stronger position, and they will need to be. During 2016, liquid assets have made up around 20 per cent of the major Australian banks total assets which is up from an average of 15 per cent prior to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Although it should be added that since the GFC property values have climbed to new record highs.</p>
<p>So, I am in the school of thought that the major banks will start hiking rates upwards in 2017 to start slowing down the property markets although it should be noted that those who have mortgages have been stress tested at 7.00 percent.</p>
<p>Last year, we observed a fall in interest – only loans which are now on the rise again and that is a very dangerous sign. A recent survey by Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) revealed that four – in – ten interest – only borrowers had absolutely no idea when, or how, they will start to repay the principal and that 90 per cent are hoping to roll indefinitely their interest – only term.</p>
<p>Now this will have just the one ending as the banks will start rolling the clients as they should not have been approved in the first place. The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) must take a long and hard look at interest – only loans as they are dangerous with a capital D!</p>
<p>In 2014 on this day there were 115 houses in Mosman on the market, this day last year 74 and today 54. For Mosman apartments they have reduced from 73 in 2014, 61 in 2015 and 42 today.</p>
<p>MOSMAN – 2088</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market this time last year – 74</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market last week – 57</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market this week – 54</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 71</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market last week – 49</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this week – 42</p>
<p>CREMORNE – 2090</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market this time last year – 15</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market last week – 6</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market this week – 5</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 18</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market last week – 24</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this week – 21</p>
<p>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market this time last year – 8</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market last week – 7</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market this week – 8</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 33</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market last week – 28</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this week – 27</p>
<p> </p>
<p><em>ROBERT SIMEON is a director of </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> </em><em>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. </em></p>
<p><em>He has also been writing real estate blog </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> </em><em>since 2000.</em></p>
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Lower North Shore markets are starting to run amok

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<p>Despite periodic warnings from the Reserve Bank about crazy prices, the Sydney market place has just had a year that no-one foresaw in terms of continued strong price growth.</p>
<p>But Brian White, chairman of real estate agency Ray White, says that homeowners’ and buyers’ sensitivity to interest rates remained "acute."</p>
<p>Any talk of rising interest rates dampens buyer enthusiasm across the Sydney property market.</p>
<p>And when rates do actually rise, the doubts set in further as buyers pause putting their hand too deep into their pockets. And often not buying at all.</p>
<p>It was no surprise that the tail end of 2016's auctions has seen a seasonal turn in the pitch as the last minute boost in numbers hits the market.</p>
<p>Clearance rates that were in the 80s, now into the mid-70 as many buyers turned off - perhaps to come back next year.</p>
<p>The recent auction market fatique also had much to do with interest rate headlines.</p>
<p>Ever since the Trump triumph in the United State in early November, its been subject to much speculation.</p>
<p>And the past fortnight has seen the big banks make early adjustments, to fixed rates more so than the more popular variable home loans. </p>
<p>The Commonwealth Bank, the country’s biggest lender lifted the rate of its popular 3-year fixed rate by 0.20 percentage points to 4.24 percent.</p>
<p>It also lifted its longer-term 5-year fixed rate by 0.60 percentage points to 4.74 percent.</p>
<p>CBA was following Westpac with a RateCity.com.au analysis showing a further 20 lenders had lifted rates 268 fixed products since November 1.  </p>
<p>Peter Arnold, data insights director at RateCity.com.au said fixed rates are based on market expectations of future rates and "are the best indicator that we’ve got that a variable rate hike on the way.".</p>
<p>“Previously, banks were betting on lower rates in the future but we’re seeing those expectations change by the day."</p>
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<p>All the recent talk and then movements will dictate the direction of house price growth in 2017, having already started to dampened the market.</p>
<p>There are two substantive price forecasts out for 2017. </p>
<p>Housing price growth of between 5 and 6 percent is expected for 2017 for detached houses is tipped by Paul Bloxham, the HSBC chief economist.</p>
<p>He expects Sydney apartment prices to track at a slower pace than detached houses at between 0 and 4 percent.</p>
<p>Bloxham noted what he called a substantial 66 percent ramp-up in housing prices in Sydney since mid-2012.</p>
<p>He added some of the price growth was at a "worrisome pace" of Sydney price growth, particularly in 2014 and 2015.</p>
<p>But following a tightening in prudential settings starting in late 2014, housing price growth had slowd from double-digit growth last year to high single-digit rates this year.</p>
<p>The other forecast came from SQM's Louis Christopher who has more often got it right than wrong.</p>
<p>He suggests the Reserve Bank of Australia will need the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority to reign in home lending once again, or lift interest rates, or do both to avert a dangerous housing bubble.</p>
<p>Christopher suggested a scenario house prices in Sydney could rise between 11 and 16 percent given a combination of factors including loose monetary policy, strong population growth and booming local economies.</p>
<p>The early November forecast assumed a stable interest rate environment, a stable exchange rate and no further home lending restrictions by APRA.</p>
<p>A rate rise by the RBA of 25bps would curtail the rising Sydney market to beween 8 and 13 percent for the year.</p>
<p><em>The article first appeared in the Saturday Telegraph</em></p>
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What will happen to Sydney prices in 2017?

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<div>I've spent some time in recent weeks looking at migration and immigration trends.</div>
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<div>The capital cities are accounting for an ever-greater share of population growth, now up to 82 percent, for a huge increase over the past decade from 75 percent.</div>
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<div>And this trend is forecast to continue over the next decade too.</div>
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<div>In particular, Melbourne and Sydney are accounting for a record share of the growth in headcount.</div>
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<div>A valid question is: why?</div>
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<div>There are a number of drivers for the capital city migration, including an apparent desire to live "closer to the action".</div>
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<div>The main reason, though, is jobs, with the capital cities creating most of the employment since the peak of the resources investment boom. </div>
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<div>The chart below looks at the number of unemployed persons per job vacancy by state, with the numbers smoothed on a rolling four quarter average basis. </div>
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<div>In New South Wales the ratio has declined to just 3, with job vacancies advertised having hit a record high in H2 2016. </div>
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<div>Victoria has also responded relatively to interest rate cuts with the ratio declining from 6.6 to a more reasonable 4.2. </div>
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<div>Many of the jobs created have been in or related to construction, of course, which may prove to be a transient dynamic.</div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/6/VACANCIES.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
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<div>Tasmania has the highest ratio at 7.8, but the latest figures show that this is about to drop sharply over the next couple of quarters as the outlook improves. </div>
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<div>The problem child is Western Australia, which saw its labour force switch from full employment to an elevated level of slack after the peak of the mining construction boom.</div>
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<div>Lately the ratio in WA appears to have been correcting itself, but this is partly because some of the thousands of Aussies that migrated to WA during the boom years are now returning home (or simply heading to the eastern capitals for gainful employment). </div>
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<div>The labour force challenges are generally more acute in a number of the regional centres than in the capital cities.</div>
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<div>Most immigrants into Australia naturally gravitate towards Sydney and Melbourne.</div>
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<div>Meanwhile within Australia Sydneysiders are now drifting towards south-east Queensland, and residents of Adelaide are lurking across the border into Melbourne. </div>
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<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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Employees flocking to eastern capitals: Pete Wargent

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<p><span>Despite moderate value declines recently, and with a healthy median dwelling value of $904,041 as at November 2017, Sydney is remains the </span><span>nation’s </span>most expensive capital city housing market and has kept up this pace consistently, excluding a short period during 2006 and 2007 when Perth surpassed the city. </p>
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<p><span>A </span><span>valuable exercise is to look at how over time, </span><span>Sydney’s </span><span>premium relative to the other capital city markets has cycled.</span></p>
<p><span>(Note: The accompanying charts show the Sydney premium over time with the red line highlighting the average premium over the length of the period shown on each chart). </span></p>
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<p><span>Overview </span><span>– </span><span>capital cities performance compared to Sydney: </span></p>
<p><span>• </span><span>Melbourne </span><span>– dwelling values currently sit at $718,325 indicating that Sydney values are 25.9% higher. The Sydney premium is currently the lowest it has been since April 2014. Over the long- term Sydney’s average premium has been 39.2%. </span></p>
<p> <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/12/8/melb7.jpg" alt=""></p>
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<p><span>• Brisbane – with a median dwelling value of $490,915, Sydney dwellings are currently 84.2% more expensive than Brisbane’s. The long-term average premium is 54.1% and the premium has consistently been higher than this average since September 2014 </span></p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/12/8/bris.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
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<p><span>• Adelaide – Sydney dwelling values have, on average, been 180.3% higher than Adelaide’s. Adelaide’s current median dwelling value of $432,126 sees the Sydney premium at 109.2%. Sydney has had an above average premium to Adelaide consistently since November 2014. </span></p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/12/8/adel.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
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<p><span>• Perth – the current median dwelling values for the city is recorded at $463,026 which indicates that Sydney’s current median is 95.2% higher compared to a long-term average difference of 60.8%. The premium for Sydney housing has been above the long-term average since August 2015. </span></p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/12/8/per.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
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<p><span>• Hobart – with a median dwelling value of $398,093, Sydney’s median value is currently 127.1% higher. The long-term average Sydney premium is 105.0% indicating that the gap has been wider than average since December 2013. </span></p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/12/8/hob.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
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<p><span>• Darwin – Sydney dwellings are currently 108.9% more expensive than Darwin’s median dwelling value which sits at $432,774. Over the long-term the average premium for Sydney dwellings has been recorded at 54.9% with the premium consistently above the long- term average since June 2015. </span></p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/12/8/darwin.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
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<p><span>• </span><span style="font-size: 12.16px;">Canberra – the median dwelling value currently sits at $588,788 which means that Sydney has a value premium of 53.5%. The long-term average premium for Sydney is 33.2% with the premium having been above average consistently since April 2014.</span></p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/12/8/canb.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
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<p>Just because the Sydney premium is currently above the long-term average for most cities, this doesn’t necessarily mean that we will see a reversion to those long term averages.</p>
<p>We acknowledge that dwelling values are beginning to fall in Sydney after a substantial increase over recent years. Assuming these falls continue, the premium relative to the other capital cities is likely to decline.”</p>
<p>Across most capital cities the current Sydney dwelling value premium is similarly large to what it was late in 2002 after a significant period of growth for the city. Following that growth phase, Sydney values peaked in December 2002 and then fell by 8.2% and didn’t eclipse the previous peak until October 2007. Mr Kusher said, “It is reasonable that we could see similar falls over the coming year(s) which would in-turn narrow the gap between the value of housing in other capital cities relative to Sydney.”</p>
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<p><span><em>Cameron Kusher is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/"><span class="s2">here</span></a>.</em> </span></p>
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Sydney has consistently kept mantle as nation's most expensive capital city

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<p>Historically Sydney embraced apartment living relatively early, in many inner suburbs there are examples of apartment buildings dating back to the 1930’s. Sydney’s appetite for apartment living has increased steadily ever since and this has resulted in a diverse stock of medium and high-density apartments to a greater extent than Melbourne.</p>
<p>Sydney has also alone successfully grown an urban landscape to become a ‘city of cities’ while the City of Sydney has long promoted the idea of a ‘city of villages’.</p>
<p>The evolution in high-density living and the continued growth of our varied urban centres has combined to help produced a rich and increasingly diverse apartment market. With each area offering interesting, diverse and appealing communities and neighbourhoods, as a result new apartment projects have also evolved in design and size to fit these different ‘cities’ and ‘villages’.</p>
<p>It’s a pattern of development that in Australia is unique to Sydney, much more so than Melbourne and with apartment living only going to increase, this extent of diversity appeals to many developers and buyers. It enables varied cultural outcomes to evolve and so makes each area more engaging and exciting.</p>
<p>One result is that we see architectural variety clearly responding to the different geographic and cultural markets that have developed. This also adds character to the city and creates different neighbourhoods that appeal to buyers.</p>
<p><strong>City of Cities</strong></p>
<p>Unlike Sydney, no other Australian city has developed the number of major high-density satellite centres such as Parramatta, Auburn, Bankstown, Bondi Junction, North Sydney and Chatswood.</p>
<p>This pattern of development is not surprising given the growing proportion of people living in high density housing. In 2001 one in seven (15.7%) of Sydney dwellings were classified as high density, by 2011 that had increased to 20.7%, today the figure is close to 30% and growing.</p>
<p>The highest proportions are located in the City of Sydney (70.2%) with the CBD (94.3%), and then followed by North Sydney (60.8%), Waverley (49%) and Woollahra (46.4%).</p>
<p>The appeal of these ‘satellite centres’ locations is somewhat surprising, as Parramatta, Bankstown and Auburn are all located some 20kms from the CBD, while Chatswood and Bondi Junction are within 10kms, which is often seen as the limits of the definition of inner-city.</p>
<p>However Parramatta is a great example so much so that recently a $2 billion proposal to rejuvenate its commercial hub was announced. And like Chatswood a strong high density residential market will be a key part of future plans.</p>
<p><strong>City of Villages</strong></p>
<p>In the 1950’s the idea of a CBD, as a district devoted to business did result in some areas becoming somewhat isolated from the wider community, and this historically residential development. Now that thinking has been reversed. Today the City of Sydney (along with most other cities) is one of the most dynamic high-density residential markets.</p>
<p>Taking on the idea of a series of villages, in part reflects international trends, but it’s a very positive way to help encourage and sustain residential areas and individual developments with wide appeal.</p>
<p>The City of Sydney has identified 10 villages, and these include the CBD and Harbour, Chinatown/CBD South, Green Square/City South, King &amp; Harris Streets, Oxford Street and Redfern Street.</p>
<p>With the village plan actively promoted, when we think of marketing and development goals we can see from various consultations how residents would like to see the area’s villages evolve.</p>
<p>What is interesting and perhaps not that surprising is that many of the key points residents look to encourage would be an exact check list for any successful development to address, including;</p>
<ul>
<li>developing a sense of community</li>
<li>improving public transport (plus encouraging bike riding and walking)</li>
<li>supporting local services and businesses</li>
<li>solving parking problems</li>
<li>‘greening’ streets and neighbourhoods</li>
<li>promoting safe and clean public places.</li>
</ul>
<p>For residents the idea of a City of Villages is appealing, however to meet the needs of a modern economy the long-term planning for any city needs to accommodate commercial growth and all of the associated services. Today we also see that a mix of development, including a range of residential projects clearly helps to enhance and create a more vibrant city.</p>
<p>As Sydney continues to grow as a ‘City of Cities’ we will continue to see further urban consolidation, much of which is based around transport connections. People and planners are attracted to existing suburbs and so the idea of a ‘City of Villages’ also makes sense, the idea allows for sensitive development while retaining local character.</p>
<p>Sydney’s supply of land, in particular land with reasonable access to services and employment is very limited and so both these trends are set to continue, and I think make a positive contribution to our urban environment.</p>
<p><em>Peter Chittenden is managing director for residential of Colliers International. He can be contacted <a href="https://www.projectagenda.com.au/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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City of cities, city of villages: Peter Chittenden

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<p><span>What a hoo-ha we experienced this week with Treasurer Hockey's comments when he dismissed suggestions that property in Sydney was unaffordable when he went on to say "If you've got a good job and it pays good money and you have security in relation to that job, then you can go to the bank and you can borrow money and that's readily affordable."</span></p>
<p><span>and "...if housing were unaffordable in Sydney, no one would be buying it," he said.</span></p>
<p><span>You know, it got me thinking back to 2003/4 when something similar was going on.  We copped the same media frenzy about the overheated Sydney market and that the boom would crash soon etc.</span></p>
<p><span>Then like now, when property becomes too expensive, usually in the cities, investors start to look for more affordable areas.</span></p>
<p><span>I was in the market investing in the early 2000's and that is exactly what I did. After settling four negatively geared Sydney properties, I realised there was no point to continue to buy such expensive property after all the capital growth had been realised as the market was peaking and back then the rental market was not as strong as it is now. I needed to find more cash flow positive property. Property that I could add value to and big blocks we could build multiple dwellings on so I could keep buying more. </span></p>
<p><span>That’s when I discovered the Lower Hunter Region of NSW.</span></p>
<p><span>There are some people that think regional areas do not experience good capital growth. I track the quarterly median price in three of the regional cities Property Bloom develops in and my graph looks very healthy. There are no extreme spikes but healthy long term growth. Rental yields are around 7% gross on most of our completed developments and with cash so cheap right now, this is sure to present a good return in anyone's book. Also, the depreciation benefits on new property is a nice bonus.</span></p>
<p><span>Property Bloom has found a prime location that is currently experiencing good growth and high demand for the housing we are building for our clients. So forget about what some of our politicians are saying and get stuck into some solid research on regional cities and I bet you'll be pleasantly surprised.</span></p>
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<p><span> Jo Chivers is Chief Executive Officer of property development project managers </span><em style="line-height: 1.3em; font-weight: bold;"><a href="https://www.propertybloom.com.au/about" target="_blank">Property Bloom</a>.</em></p>
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Copping the media frenzy: Jo Chivers

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<p class="Body">We have valuation firm Herron Todd White to thank for this quite startling revelation earlier in the week: “Signs of slowing have emerged in Sydney property markets.”</p>
<p class="Body">Were it not for the ground-breaking analysis and cutting-edge research of HTW, no one would have noticed that the Sydney market has been fading.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">The marked decrease in sales volumes since the start of the year would have passed us by.</p>
<p class="Body">The stark decline in auction clearance rates over several months would have gone unnoticed.</p>
<p class="Body">The significance of the steady increase in stock on the market would have been lost of all but the most brilliant among us.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">And the wind-down in the pace of price growth would have been quite meaningless.</p>
<p class="Body">Fortunately, HTW to the rescue, publishing a report that contains zingers like: “There are signs that the market may be cooling.”</p>
<p class="Body">Good grief. What were they thinking? Were they competing for first prize in a competition for under-statement of the year? Or was it the time-honoured tradition among the valuation profession of being unwilling to say anything meaningful for fear of being relevant?<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">There are signs that the market may be cooling? Is there seriously some doubt that the Sydney market is in wind-down?<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">This is sadly symptomatic of the absence of expert analysis in the residential property industry.</p>
<p class="Body">We had another example in a speech last week by Reserve Bank assistant governor Malcolm Edey, in which he made the most common mistake in real estate “analysis”. This is the theory that says that if Event A coincided with Event B, therefore Event A must have caused Event B.</p>
<p class="Body">It’s irrelevant that there are five or six other events that also were aligned with Event B - Event A has had the most publicity, so Event A gets the prize.</p>
<p class="Body">So APRA made some announcements and then signs emerged, a la HTW’s rip-snorting expose, of a cooling in the market, therefore APRA must have caused the de-heating.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">Obviously.</p>
<p class="Body">This overlooks the reality that the Sydney market peaked and started its gradual wind-down long before APRA had its self-indulgent brain-explosion.</p>
<p class="Body">The Sydney market peaked in the December Quarter last year. Sales activity dropped in the March Quarter, dropped again in the June Quarter and continued its steady dissipation in the September Quarter.</p>
<p class="Body">Little by little, that has been reflected in other data.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body">Clearance rates are now below 60% for the first time in three years, following a pattern of decline stretching back months.</p>
<p class="Body">The latest quarterly price data, always a long way behind the real game, indicates Sydney growth has fallen back to levels on a par with Adelaide and Brisbane.</p>
<p class="Body"> <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">But Edey, as a boffin who gets no closer to the coal face than his computer screen, sees only “tentative evidence that sentiment may now be turning”.</span></p>
<p class="Body"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> I fully agree with the growing list of pundits calling the end to Sydney’s boom. I’ve been writing about it for the past 5-6 months.</span></p>
<p class="Body"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></span></p>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Sydney market wound down before APRA's brain-explosion: Terry Ryder

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<p>The increase in the value of Sydney homes over recent years has been significant and Sydney home owners now have a substantial amount of equity, it will be interesting to see what they do with it.</p>
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<p>The latest CoreLogic RP Data Home Value Index results were released earlier this week.  Apart from an update how house and unit values have shifted in November, the release includes the latest update on median selling prices for houses and units across the capital cities.  From this data it is becoming increasingly evident that housing costs in Sydney have well and truly separated from the rest of the country.</p>
<p>The CoreLogic RP Data Home Value Index results highlight just how much stronger value growth has been in Sydney, and to a lesser degree Melbourne, relative to all other capital cities.  The first chart highlights that since the current growth phase commenced in June 2012, value growth has been significantly greater in Sydney than in most other cities.  This has occurred despite the fact that Sydney was already the most expensive capital city.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/12/7/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-07%20at%202.16.35%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/12/7/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-07%20at%202.16.35%20PM.png" alt="" width="716" height="358"></p>
<p><span>The second chart compares median house and unit prices across each of the capital cities.  This data is based on median prices over the three months to November 2015. Sydney has the greatest median house ($950,000) and unit price ($675,000).  In fact, Sydney’s median unit price is higher than the median house price in all other cities except Melbourne where they sit at the same level.  To put the differential into some perspective the combined median house ($495,000) and unit price ($400,000) is lower than the median house price in Sydney.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/12/7/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-07%20at%202.17.54%20PM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/12/7/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-07%20at%202.17.54%20PM.png" alt="" width="626" height="308"></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>It is important to remember that the median price provides an indication of the typical home selling at a period of time.  It can be impacted by compositional bias if lower or higher priced stock is selling.  Nevertheless it does afford an understanding of what the typical home is currently selling for.</p>
<p>To better understand exactly how much Sydney has separated from the rest of the capital cities in pricing terms, we’ve looked at the approximate dollar value change from the recent low point in the market through to the end of November.  The data shows that home values have increased substantially across Sydney and those who have owned a property in Sydney for more than a few years are likely to have accumulated a sizeable level of equity in their property.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/12/7/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-07%20at%202.19.12%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/12/7/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-07%20at%202.19.12%20PM.png" alt="" width="775" height="610"></p>
<p>At their most recent low, Sydney median house prices were recorded at $620,000 and median unit prices were $465,000. From that time to the end of November Sydney house values had increased by 51.7% and unit values by 38.3%.  In dollar value terms this is an increase of $320,265 and $178,245 respectively. Of course some of that increase may be due to improvements however, that rise in the value of Sydney houses and units are much greater than increases in all other capital cities.</p>
<p>The substantial rise in prices and the subsequent boost in housing equity probably also points to why many lifestyle markets are now seeing value rises.  Anecdotally, home owners from Sydney and Melbourne are now more able to purchase lifestyle properties given the wealth effect of higher property prices.  It also indicates that someone could sell out of Sydney, buy into another market and pocket a significant amount of capital from the balance from the sale.  This is probably quite appealing to some Sydney-siders that are retired or close to retirement as well as those that own their own business.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/cameron-kusher/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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