<p>A locally heritage-listed furniture showroom on Water Street is set to become the centrepiece of a new mixed-use residential development as local developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/keylin-group">Keylin</a> seeks approval for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lotus-on-water-street-290-water-street-fortitude-valley-qld-4006">Lotus on Water Street</a>, a 15-storey project on the Fortitude Valley side of Spring Hill.</p>

<p>The proposal spans 290 Water Street and 137-141 Warry Street, combining several properties into a 2,869 sqm site that sits between Fortitude Valley, Spring Hill and the rapidly evolving Victoria Park precinct. Keylin's plans would deliver 132 apartments alongside new retail, hospitality and commercial space, while retaining and repurposing the historic Brunswick Home Furnishers Showroom that fronts Water Street.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/jackson-teece">Jackson Teece</a>, Lotus on Water Street comprises a 12-storey residential tower rising above a three-storey podium and communal rooftop terrace. The development includes 76 apartments classified as multiple dwellings and a further 56 units proposed as short-term accommodation, designed to be flexibly used as either accommodation or permanent residences. The apartment mix comprises six one-bedroom, 54 two-bedroom and 16 three-bedroom homes.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9822bb79-6c49-49c9-95ba-319e8c8d81c3" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20front.png?VersionId=ioW8zbN4UVebbLetTFuv92t.HkdgfR5e" /></p>

<p>Residents would have access to an extensive rooftop recreation level spanning more than 1,200 sqm of communal open space. Plans include a pool, gym, sauna, infrared sauna, yoga area, library, private dining room, barbecue facilities and landscaped entertainment spaces, making the rooftop the project's largest shared amenity offering.</p>

<p>At street level, the proposal focuses on the adaptive reuse of the heritage buildings along Water Street, where 518 sqm of retail and commercial space is planned across shop, office and food and drink outlet uses. A permeable residential lobby would be positioned between the retained heritage buildings, creating a pedestrian connection between the historic streetscape and the new tower behind.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="269cf3e0-7d13-48bf-a318-05a00deb5c10" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20podium.png?VersionId=DLXmTCLsp6GOcLpQ0h.0z7wKCw59EhN_" /></p>

<p>The heritage retention strategy is central to the scheme. The development application notes that the Brunswick Home Furnishers Showroom and adjoining heritage buildings will remain, with only non-significant structures on the site earmarked for removal under a previously issued Heritage Exemption Certificate. Levels one and two of the new podium are recessed behind the heritage façades to maintain their prominence within the streetscape.</p>

<p>Jackson Teece has drawn inspiration from the site's manufacturing history when designing the podium. The planning documents state that the façade incorporates perforated metal screening that references the woven and rattan furniture historically produced on the site. Cascading and climbing plants are integrated throughout the podium to soften the building's presentation and screen parking levels behind. The landscape strategy also informs the project's name, Lotus on Water Street, drawing on the historic Spring Hollow waterholes that once ran through Spring Hill and the blue water lilies associated with Meeanjin, Brisbane's traditional name.</p>

<p>The proposal also incorporates the neighbouring property at 141 Warry Street, currently occupied by a healthcare service. The existing building would remain, with nine dedicated parking spaces allocated within the new development to support its ongoing operation. In total, Lotus on Water Street proposes 117 car spaces, including 110 resident spaces and seven visitor bays, alongside 100 bicycle spaces.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="70cf07bc-4fd8-4e70-92dd-be8b21c4e4f0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20site.png?VersionId=txlxrJImM0Sm_vTzHVKh5DDUkyL_CiiA" /></p>

<p>The site sits within the Spring Hill East Precinct of the Spring Hill Neighbourhood Plan and is positioned around 650 metres from both Fortitude Valley Station and Exhibition Station. It is also within walking distance of the King Street precinct, Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Herston Quarter and Victoria Park, which is earmarked to become a major venue precinct ahead of the Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.</p>

<p>Planning documents describe the location as a key gateway between Spring Hill and Fortitude Valley and highlight the area's increasing importance as new transport infrastructure and Olympic-related investment reshape Brisbane's inner north. The development team argues the project will contribute additional housing supply while activating a section of Water Street that has historically received less investment than other parts of the Valley.</p>

<p>Keylin has become increasingly active across Brisbane and southeast Queensland, assembling sites in strategic inner-city locations. They are currently selling and delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/oria-spring-hill-447-gregory-terrace-spring-hill-qld-4000">Oria Spring Hill</a>, just over 140 apartments due for completion in 2027.</p>


Joel Robinson

Keylin plans heritage-led Lotus on Water Street apartment development in Fortitude Valley

<p>Roseville is poised for a wave of new apartment development following the NSW Government's rezoning of land around Roseville Station under its Transport Oriented Development program.</p>

<p>The new planning controls have unlocked significant development potential within walking distance of the station, with a number of sites expected to be amalgamated and redeveloped in the coming years as developers seek to take advantage of the increased density allowances.</p>

<p>One of the more restrained developments in the precinct, and set among the first to be delivered having commenced well before the recent changes, is Hyecorp's Juliet. The boutique apartment project is already well under construction and remains on track to welcome residents by the end of the year, offering a markedly different proposition to many of the larger-scale developments now likely to emerge across the suburb.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278194]</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/juliet-roseville-64-pacific-highway-roseville-nsw-2069">Juliet</a> will comprise just&nbsp;34 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments opposite Roseville Station. For Hyecorp, which has delivered projects across Sydney's Lower North Shore for more than three decades, Roseville presented a rare opportunity to address a growing gap in the market.</p>

<p>"<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/roseville-nsw-2069">Roseville</a> has long been one of the North Shore's most tightly held and desirable suburbs, offering a unique combination of village charm, established greenery, excellent transport connections, and proximity to some of Sydney's best schools and lifestyle amenities," Hyecorp said.</p>

<p>"We recognised a growing demand from local homeowners seeking to downsize without leaving the community they have built their lives around. The location presented a rare opportunity to create homes that cater specifically to that buyer profile."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278196]</p>

<p>The six-level development has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/pbd-architects">PBD Architects</a> as a collection of residences that feel more like homes than apartments. The brief centred generous floorplans, abundant natural light, quality finishes, and strong connections to outdoor space.</p>

<p>PBD Architects drew inspiration from Roseville's established garden suburb character, creating a building that sits comfortably within its surroundings rather than dominating them. The architecture incorporates natural materials, soft forms, layered landscaping, expansive balconies, and generous setbacks to strengthen the connection between residents and the suburb's leafy environment.</p>

<p>"The focus was on designing spacious, house-like residences for discerning owner-occupiers and downsizers who wanted to remain on the North Shore without compromising on comfort, privacy, or design," PBD said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"Every apartment was to feel considered, timeless, and highly functional."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278195]</p>

<p>Inside, residences feature engineered timber flooring, stone kitchen benchtops and splashbacks, integrated Fisher &amp; Paykel appliances, ducted air conditioning, and large outdoor entertaining areas designed to take advantage of district and treetop views.</p>

<p>Residents will also have access to a rooftop barbecue and lounge area, alongside practical amenities including parcel lockers, EV charging capability, bicycle storage, a dog wash bay, and a basement car wash facility.</p>

<p>The majority of purchasers so far have been local owner-occupiers from Roseville, Lindfield, Chatswood, Killara, and the broader Upper North Shore, many of whom are transitioning from larger family homes.</p>

<p>"Buyers are looking for spacious, house-like apartments that allow them to downsize without feeling like they are sacrificing comfort or functionality," Hyecorp noted.</p>

<p>"They value large kitchens, generous living areas, ample storage, quality finishes, secure parking, lift access, and low-maintenance living."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278204]</p>

<p>Juliet sits directly opposite Roseville Train Station and within walking distance of Roseville Village, while Chatswood's retail and dining precinct is only minutes away. The development is also surrounded by some of Sydney's most established schools, including Roseville College, Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College, and Knox Grammar, as well as nearby parklands and golf courses.</p>

<p>Juliet is currently more than 75 per cent sold ahead of its anticipated completion in late 2026.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7395]</p>


Juliet to sit quietly amid Roseville apartment boom

<p>Sherpa Property Group has unveiled the third instalment of its Flourish series, securing full approval for the two-tower, $500 million Flourish Soleira development in Palm Beach.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-1150-1154-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> will rise from a prominent site in the commercial heart of Palm Beach, the long-time home of Cash Converters and a range of local retailers.</p>

<p>The project will introduce a new retail and dining precinct at ground level, beneath 286 apartments.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370959]</p>

<p>“We’re very committed to not only providing affordable residential offerings that are much needed in Palm Beach, but also delivering a vibrant new commercial heart that complements the extraordinary growth of the southern Gold Coast,” Sherpa Property Group founder Christie Leet said.</p>

<p>The development will sit under Sherpa's Flourish brand, which is aimed at providing a pathway into the beachside suburb for locals, first-home buyers and downsizers. In a move designed to assist first-home buyers entering the market, Sherpa has reserved all one and two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartments exclusively for eligible first-home buyers.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370964]</p>

<p>“Our vision through Flourish is to create a vibrant retail and lifestyle focal point within the Palm Beach centre zone, delivering thriving communities underpinned by lifestyle-rich locations,” Leet said.</p>

<p>“So far, Flourish has been an incredible success, and we hope to carry this momentum as we progress the next two Flourish projects in Palm Beach.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=371430]</p>

<p>Located across 1150-1164 Gold Coast Highway and 3 Sixth Avenue, the development will comprise two towers. The northern tower will deliver 154 apartments, while the southern tower will add a further 132 residences, helping address ongoing demand for new apartments in the tightly held coastal suburb.</p>

<p>Flourish Soleira will also feature the most extensive rooftop amenity offering ever delivered in Palm Beach.</p>

<p>The two towers will be connected by a skybridge, with residents gaining access to a rooftop recreation deck featuring a full-width swimming pool, hot and cold plunge pools, wellness spaces, a gymnasium, private dining facilities, massage treatment rooms, barbecue areas, a basketball court, golf simulator, indoor and outdoor dining spaces, sun lounges and extensive landscaping.</p>

<p>LPS Group is expected to start construction later this year.</p>

<p>Sherpa is already well advanced on construction of its debut Flourish project, Flourish Amargo, located just around the corner from Soleira. Meanwhile, Flourish Oasis, positioned opposite Amargo, recently commenced construction and has nearly sold out its collection of 47 apartments.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]</p>


Sherpa unveils $500m mixed-use Palm Beach precinct, Flourish Soleira

<p>Are mortgage holders set to get a reprieve from the RBA in 2026?</p>

<p>Big Four bank NAB believes so. They are now expecting the next move from the RBA to be a cut, rather than a hike, which they had pencilled in for August. They are unsure of the timing of the cut however, they note in their latest&nbsp;NAB Economics RBA Watch.</p>

<p>NAB Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said recent data suggests the economy has lost momentum and the outlook for rates has shifted, noting that the broader economic backdrop has changed since earlier in the year.</p>

<p>“The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain," Dr Auld said.</p>

<p>"In February, growth was above trend, the economy was operating above capacity and there was uncertainty over the restrictiveness of rates. None of these conditions exist today,” she outlined.</p>

<p>Dr Auld said recent data pointed to softer momentum across the economy while acknowledging that at the same time, uncertainty remains a key feature of the outlook.</p>

<p>“Both Q1 GDP data and the NAB business survey suggest momentum in the economy has slowed, meaning that growth has likely peaked for the cycle. That said, we are cognisant there is still considerable uncertainty around the outlook, both with respect to activity and inflation.”</p>

<p>Dr Auld said inflation risks and labour market outcomes would be important to watch.</p>

<p>“On the prices side, we are still forecasting above target core inflation through to mid-2027. Margins will compress and weaker labour market outcomes are a risk.”</p>

<p>She said tighter financial conditions are expected to weigh on housing and activity.</p>

<p>“Tighter financial conditions will be reflected in a slowing in house price growth and housing credit growth. In summary, we have greater conviction that the next move in rates is down, but less conviction on the timing.”</p>


Mortgage relief? NAB forecasts RBA rate cut, not hike, after softer economic conditions

<p>A local downsizer has splashed $6.5 million on a penthouse in Perifa's Alex &amp; Willow development in Crows Nest.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
The purchaser sold their long-held family home in the area before embarking on a six-month search for the right apartment. After inspecting a range of options across the Lower North Shore, the buyer returned to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/alex-willow-crows-nest-82-90-alexander-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Alex &amp; Willow</a>.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
The buyer profile reflects the project’s broader purchaser mix. <a>Alex &amp; Willow</a> has attracted predominantly local downsizers looking to transition from larger homes without compromising on space or quality, alongside a smaller cohort of upsizers and investors drawn to the project’s location and design credentials.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
The milestone sale comes as the project, developed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/perifa">Perifa</a>&nbsp;and delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/versatile-made-construction">Versatile Construction</a>, both part of Versatile Group, reaches 60 per cent sold.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=371325]<br />
&nbsp;<br />
Eddie Mansour, Managing Partner of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/ray-white-projects">Ray White Projects</a>, said the result demonstrates not only a headline price but also depth of demand.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
“This is an exceptional outcome and a clear reflection of sustained buyer demand for premium, well-located downsizer product,” Mansour said.</p>

<p>“We’re seeing a consistent pattern of local homeowners selling family residences and reinvesting into high-quality apartments that allow them to remain within their community. Alex &amp; Willow has resonated strongly with this group because it offers genuine scale, thoughtful design and immediate proximity to the village.”<br />
&nbsp;<br />
The sale reflects a broader and consistent trend of local downsizers actively seeking high-quality, low-maintenance residences close to established village centres. Agents report that demand for this product type has remained resilient, particularly where developments offer a rare combination of scale, design quality and walkable amenity.<br />
&nbsp;&nbsp;<br />
Fabrizio Perilli, Managing Director of Perifa and Versatile Group, said the sale marks a defining moment for the project.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
“The penthouse sale is a strong endorsement of the quality we have delivered, alongside our partners, and the clear demand from local downsizers for premium, boutique residences in this location,” Perilli said.&nbsp;<br />
&nbsp;<br />
“Most importantly, we’re proud to see the Alex &amp; Willow community beginning to take shape. As we move closer to completion, we’re looking forward to welcoming residents and seeing the project come to life.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=338516]<br />
&nbsp;<br />
Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/nettletontribe">Nettleton Tribe</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/richards-stanisich">Richards Stanisich</a>, Alex &amp; Willow is a boutique collection of generously sized two- and three-bedroom residences in the heart of Crows Nest village.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Completion is slated for early 2027.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6680]</p>


Alex & Willow, Crows Nest penthouse sells off the plan for $6.5 million

Property market

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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">GUEST OBSERVER</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The outer Sydney land market is now in a strong growth phase, after being in a downturn for the best part of a decade. Rising land development in Outer Sydney has been driven by improved affordability, improved land availability, and improved transport infrastructure provision.</span></p>
<p>We have <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">profiled the various indicators relating to demand, dwelling and lot supply, and prices, in the outer Sydney land market, with a focus on the north west and south west corridors, as well as the central coast. The regions are defined as follows:</span></p>
<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">North West </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">(The Hills Shire, Blacktown and Penrith LGAs)</span><br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">South West </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">(Wollondilly, Camden, Campbelltown and Liverpool LGAs)</span>
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<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Central Coast (Gosford and Wyong LGAs).</span>
<p style="line-height: 1.3em;">STOCK DEFICIENCY</p>
<p style="line-height: 1.3em;"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Very low new dwelling completions between 2006/07 and 2011/12 saw a sizeable dwelling deficiency emerge in the Sydney market by June 2012. The combination of dwelling deficiency and improved affordability via low interest rates has been the key driver of the upturn in Sydney residential prices and demand for new housing. Completions have grown from a low of 18,400 dwellings in 2011/12 to 35,200 dwellings in 2014/15. While significant growth has occurred in high density dwelling commencements  </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">which rose by 123% in this time, new separate house starts have also increased by a sizeable 57% from 8,000 houses to 12,500 houses in the same period. This has been met by strong population growth, as New South Wales benefits from a strong, albeit easing, net overseas migration inflow, and a record low net interstate migration outflow, which has sustained the dwelling deficiency in Sydney despite rising supply. </span></p>
<p style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </p>
<p style="line-height: 1.3em;"><a href="/images/2015/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-01%20at%208.12.22%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Click here</span></a></p>
<p style="line-height: 1.3em;"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><img src="/images/2015/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-01%20at%208.12.22%20AM.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </p>
<p style="line-height: 1.3em;"><a href="/images/2015/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-01%20at%208.13.58%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p style="line-height: 1.3em;"><img src="/images/2015/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-01%20at%208.13.58%20AM.png" alt="" width="757" height="487"></p>
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<p><span>DEMAND </span></p>
<p><span>Population Growth </span></p>
<p><span>Greater Sydney’s population growth slowed from 49,100 persons per annum over 1996–2001, to 30,700 persons per annum over 2001–2006 as a result of slowing net overseas migration and larger net interstate migration outflows. The impact was felt in Outer Sydney, with Inner and Middle Sydney population growth remaining largely unchanged. </span></p>
<p><span>Population growth recovered to 70,600 persons per annum over 2007–2011 as both net overseas migration boomed and net interstate outflows moderated, with Inner and Middle Sydney accounting for the majority of this increase. </span></p>
<p><span>Population growth has continued to strengthen over 2011 to 2015 to an estimated 79,200 persons per annum, with Outer Sydney now accounting for the larger share of the increase, are driving the emerging recovery in the broadhectare land market. </span></p>
<p><span>Greenfield development </span></p>
<p><span>Infill development of new houses can take place as knock downs, as well as new houses being built on infill or brownfield sites. The level of infill activity generally moves in line with the cycle, however it is significantly more stable than demand for greenfield houses being constrained by the more limited availability of sites. </span></p>
<p><span>As a result, any upturns in new house demand are accommodated by the more plentiful greenfield land. Over the 2001 to 2015 period, greenfield land is estimated to have accommodated around 44% of Sydney’s new house demand, being as low as 22% (in 2009) and as high as 70% (in 2001). Greenfield land is estimated to be accommodating around 55% of new houses in 2014/15. </span></p>
<p><span>House affordability </span></p>
<p><span>Housing affordability, as measured by mortgage repayments at the prevailing variable interest rate on 75% of a median priced home in Sydney as a percentage of average household disposable income for New South Wales, has averaged 33% over the twenty two years to 2014/15 (Chart 3). </span></p>
<p><span>The upturn in Sydney prices was initiated as interest </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">rates fell and the affordability ratio moved below the long term average. However, subsequent price rises drove further demand and price growth, with mortgage repayments on a median priced home of 37.7% of household disposable income at June 2015, currently worse than the long term average and approaching some of the worst levels recorded in 2004 and 2008. Further price rises will put house prices increasingly under pressure, particularly if interest rates also rise. </span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-01%20at%208.15.56%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-01%20at%208.15.56%20AM.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-01%20at%208.17.14%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-01%20at%208.17.14%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p><span>Land affordability</span></p>
<p><span>The key to the upturn in the Sydney land market has been the improved affordability of new houses relative to the increasing median house price. Through the middle of the 2000s, the ratio of land prices to house prices, or alternatively the premium of buying a new house over an established house in Outer Sydney was at a worse level than in the 1990s and early 2000s.</span></p>
<p><span>However, the price of land relative to established housing in Outer Sydney has improved from 72% in 2005 to 52% in 2015—better than the late 1990s average. Conversely, the median new home cost is now slightly below established house median prices. </span></p>
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<p><a href="/images/2015/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-01%20at%208.19.07%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span><span><img src="/images/2015/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-01%20at%208.19.07%20AM.png" alt=""></span></p>
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<p><span>SUPPLY</span></p>
<p><span>Land Production</span></p>
<p><span>Lot production was extremely low in the 2006 to 2010 period, with Outer Sydney producing just 1,900 lots on average over this timeframe.</span></p>
<p><span>Since the upturn, lot production in Outer Sydney has surged, reaching 6,000 lots in 2013/14 and is estimated 4,500 to have risen to 8,100 lots over 2014/15, which 4,000 represents a 35% increase.</span></p>
<p><span>Over the long term, North West Sydney (The Hills Shire, Blacktown, and Penrith LGAs) has generally accommodated 48% of lot production in Outer Sydney.<br> In comparison, South West Sydney (Liverpool, Camden and Campbelltown LGAs) has accommodated around 36%, and the Central Coast (Gosford and</span></p>
<p><span>Wyong LGAs) has accounted for 13% (Chart 5). More recently, the limited new lot supply elsewhere means that Outer Sydney lot production is now roughly evenly split between North West and South West Sydney. </span></p>
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<p><a href="/images/2015/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-01%20at%208.21.35%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-01%20at%208.21.35%20AM.png" alt=""></span></p>
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<p><span>Lot Size</span></p>
<p><span>The median size of new lots in Outer Sydney has been falling since 2000, from over 700 square metres to below 500 square metres for the first time in 2013/14. </span></p>
<p><span>While lot sizes remain low in a long term sense, there has been a small increase in lot sizes in 2014/15 as developers increasingly serve the upgrader market as price points move beyond the realm of first home buyers. </span></p>
<p><span>The strong demand for land in Sydney means that developers are producing more profitable larger lots to target the upgrader market. Meanwhile, the first home buyer market is increasingly being serviced by the established home and apartment market. In new estates, the most affordable housing is being provided in integrated developments rather than small lots.</span></p>
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<p><a href="/images/2015/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-01%20at%208.24.37%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
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<p><span>PRICES</span></p>
<p><span>There was a correction in both land and house prices (as well as new house activity), through the latter half of the 2000s. Between 2005 and 2009, the Outer Sydney median land price fell by 10.5%, or a 20% decline in real terms. </span></p>
<p><span>With Outer Sydney median land prices over 2009 to 2013 remaining relatively flat (+4% increase in total), Outer Sydney house price growth returned (+25% in the same period), and land affordability improved back to 1990s levels. </span></p>
<p><span>Further strong growth in Outer Sydney median house prices in 2014 and 2015 (totalling +31%) has taken the median house price to an estimated $650,000 at June 2015. Growth in land prices has also returned although still remains below that of house prices (+21%) indicating a median of $335,000 by June 2015. This lower growth in land prices has allowed the cost of new houses to become more affordable relative to established houses and enabled upgraders to more easily sell their existing dwelling to upsize to a new home. </span></p>
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<p><a href="/images/2015/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-01%20at%208.27.44%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-01%20at%208.27.44%20AM.png" alt=""></span></p>
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<p><em><span>Angie Zigomanis is senior manager, <span id="0.8280794406309724" class="highlight">BIS</span> <span id="0.5401298783253878" class="highlight">Shrapnel</span> and can be contacted <a href="mailto:azigomanis@bis.com.au" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></em></p>
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Strong growth for outer Sydney land market: Angie Zigomanis

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<em>Residex</em> released its data and property market update to 31 July which showed house growth over the quarter accelerate to "an astonishing" 7.6% to be 21.2% higher over the year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As the below <em>Residex</em> graphic shows capital growth in Sydney has continued to outstrip by far that seen in other capital cities where average growth for the quarter was under 1%.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sydney median house prices have now blasted well past $1 million at $1,017,500</div>
<div>
<br>Regional house price growth was relatively soft across all states and territories on this index. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/31/Resi1.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/08/31/Resi1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div>
<div>Sydney unit prices also recorded very strong 6.6 per cent quarterly growth to be 15.2 per cent higher over the year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<em>Residex</em> has also recorded very strong growth in rents for houses and units over the past twelve months.</div>
<br><span>On the other hand median prices contracted in resources capitals Perth and Darwin over the past year.</span>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/08/31/Table_1_July_Stats_Summary2.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/08/31/Table_1_July_Stats_Summary2.jpg" alt="" width="765" height="670"></span></div>
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<div> </div>
<div>
<div>These<em> Residex </em>updates are well worth a read.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Discussed in this newsletter is how the increasing population density of Sydney may have contributed to outperforming capital growth.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<em>Residex</em> considers that strong captial growth in Sydney could continue for the next few quarters before stabilising at a high level.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>These<em> Residex </em>updates are well worth a read.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Discussed in this newsletter is how the increasing population density of Sydney may have contributed to outperforming capital growth.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<em>Residex</em> considers that strong captial growth in Sydney could continue for the next few quarters before stabilising at a high level.</div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Astonishing Sydney boom accelerates: Pete Wargent

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<div><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">I'm in the midst of what will ultimately be my most comprehensive research project to date, and henceforth will aim to share a few high level viewpoints and findings on this blog page along the way.</span></div>
<div> </div>
<div>There are of course a multitide of factors which impact and drive housing markets ranging from macroeconomic drivers to monetary policy, and from consumption patterns to construction rates. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>But for today let's look briefly and specifically at Australia's demographics.</div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Population pyramid</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Looking below at an Australian population pyramid - which for the purposes of this blog post I have flipped on its side - representing the estimated resident population as at 2014, we can immediately observe a couple of salient points.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Firstly, although Australia does have an ageing population, in part thanks to our immigration program the demographic profile of Australia is markedly different to those found in some other developed countries, and considerably less "top heavy".<br><br>With skilled migration in particular often having favoured those in the 21-30 age bracket, there is presently a relative dearth of people in my age bracket, that being the 31 to 38 year old cohort (see Point A on the below chart).</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/31/PP1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/08/31/PP1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Depending upon your preferred information source the average or "typical" age of first homebuyers in Australia now ranges anywhere from 31 to 34 years of age, and that figure could potentially levitate further due to a combination of lifestyle factors and increasingly stretched deposit gaps in the two major capital cities.<br><br>Of course, an "average" covers a wide range of ages and strains of buyer, but recent data has suggested that a comfortable majority of first homebuyers are now in their 30s or 40s.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Investors in the ascendancy...for now</span></strong><br><br>
</div>
<div>The shape of the first chart above may therefore go some of the way to explaining the comparatively low volumes of homebuyers in the market through this cycle, with investors dominant to an an unprecedented degree, particularly in the largest capital city markets.<br><br>Naturally other factors have played a role here, particularly looser monetary policy which has encouraged those with existing equity generated through housing market ownership to redeploy it in a faithful manner.<br><br>Not only is there a relative paucity of 31 to 38 year olds where we might expect to find the bulk of first homebuyers, there is also an evident weak spot in the traditional "big spender" cohort.<br><br>Which is to say, there is a proportionate lull in the number of executives, senior managers and business owners commonly aged from around 45 to 55 (refer to Point B on the above chart).</div>
<br><div>While the wave of first homebuyers predominantly impacts dwelling prices at the entry level, it is those in these middle working years that are the heaviest spenders in the housing market, making their most material dwelling purchases at that stage in life.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As you can see in the graphic above, the demographic pyramid does not present too kindly in respect of either cohort at the current time...and nor is it likely to do so for some years.</div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Looking swell (2021-2027)</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>In fact, rolling the chart packs forward by calendar year we find that it is not until around around 2021 that the number of potential first homebuyers reaches a critical mass which might be considered compelling, with the number of 31 to 38 year olds in particular mushrooming to a total of more than 3.1 million (from around only 2.6 million in 2014).<br><br>In the period through to 2027, that number is projected to have expanded further still to more than 3.3 million. </div>
<div>
<br>As this effective "spending wave" passes through 2021, therefore, the demographic factors for Australian housing market growth look to be particularly favourable from that year until around 2027 inclusive.<br><br>As you can see in the second chart below, not only will the total population of Australia have swelled significantly by 2021 to around 26.5 million, the clamour of potential purchasers in the 31 to 38 year old age bracket (Point A below) really begins to amplify.<br><br>Furthermore there will be a coinciding wave of Australians approaching the latter half of their fourth decade (Point B below), the time of life at which they are likely to make their most consequential home purchases. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/31/PP2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/08/31/PP2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>This isn't to suggest here that the demographics for homebuyer activity then deteriorate after 2027 as such, rather that the projected figures then plateau for a period of time and thereby stop improving so impressively.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">City winners and losers</span></strong><br><br>Drilling down to the next statistical level, it can be found that from around 2021 the demographic waves will become very favourable for Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and and <span style="text-decoration: underline;">particularly</span> Perth (assuming the superfluity of mining boom migrants opts to stay put, and interstate migration away from Western Australia doesn't begin to bite).<br><br>Hampered by an interstate migration "brain drain" these demographic waves do not suggest a favourable environment for the Adelaide housing market, with barely any improvement discernible over the same time horizon.<br><br>Meanwhile the latest projections suggest that Tasmania's housing market demographics could potentially worsen quite appreciably in the years leading up to 2035, although such longer term projections by their very nature tend to be less than reliable.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Dwelling starts</span></strong>
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<div>
<br>While this is a blog post predominantly concerned with demographics, it's worth considering for a moment how the above findings tie in with the dwelling construction cycle.<br><br>Two of the "X-factors" which have impacted this housing market cycle have been an explosion in the volume of Asian capital invested in the Australian market and a hitherto unseen shift towards multi-unit construction.<br><br>Although 2015 will likely prove to be the market peak for dwelling starts, dwelling <em>completions</em> will remain elevated for the next few years.<br><br>In combination with a slowing rate of population growth, this will be one of the factors together with an erosion of yields which will eventually bring the current growth cycle to its end.</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/08/31/HIA.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/08/31/HIA.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<div><span>Since natural population growth and net overseas migration will take some time to absorb the excess dwelling stock, this also points broadly towards 2021-2027 as a likely period for housing market growth.</span></div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/08/31/AW1.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/08/31/AW1.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Long run demographics are healthy</span></strong></div>
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<div>While the latest data suggests that over the short term Australia's populaton growth is likely to continue to slow, over the very long run the demographics of Australia are exceptionally compelling, with the population potentially set to almost double by over the next half century.<br><br>Also note that immigration is projected to keep the headcount in the potential homebuyer age brackets expanding to heights that agents and other industry participants can only dream of today.</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/08/31/PP3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/08/31/PP3.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><br>With life expectancies increasing there will evidently be a greater number of residents living well beyond the traditional retirement date in the decades ahead, although in time we might expect to see more folk working beyond the traditional retirement age too.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The chart above implies that with the demand for capital city property likely to approximately double over the very long run, the likelihood of capital city land values in the landlocked inner- and middle-ring suburbs remaining anything less than singularly expensive appears quite remote.<br><br>Of course, it isn't possible to forecast or time markets so accurately, but over the near term there could easily be a relatively weak period ahead for housing markets as dwelling completions overtake demand, before a potentially strong rebound running broadly between 2021 and 2027. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The most interesting and useful findings are those which incorporate the shifting composition of net migration at the suburb level, though I don't post detailed suburb research on my blog. </div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Making waves in the Aussie housing market: Pete Wargent

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<p>New South Wales auction results for the week ending Sunday August 30 show a preliminary clearance rate of <span>78%</span> from <span>1080</span> scheduled auctions.</p>
<div class="reported-auctions">
<div class="num">According to data from realestate.com.au, <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">516 </span>were sold at auction within NSW, <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">142 </span>passed in and <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">142 </span>sold prior to auction.</div>
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<div class="num">One standout property in the Sydney suburb of Annandale was a two bedroom terrace at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-annandale-120376477" target="_blank">22 Collins St Annandale</a> which sold for $980,000.</div>
<div class="num"> </div>
<div class="num"><a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/auction-results/nsw?rsf=edm:auction:nsw" target="_blank">Click here to see the full state breakout.</a></div>
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NSW shows auction clearance rate of 78%: Realestate.com.au

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<p>Retail property giants, Westfield Corporation and Scentre Group, were among the last companies to report their results in August, along with Lend Lease, Charter Hall Group and several smaller property companies. </p>
<p>Westfield Corporation and Scentre Group, which each reported half-year results to June 30, 2015, hit their funds from operations forecasts and said they were in line to meet their full-year targets. </p>
<p>Development works are expected to drive profits for Westfield Corporation, which owns and operates Westfield shopping centres in Europe and the USA. It plans to start $2.5bn worth of projects in the coming year with $1.6bn of redevelopments already started in the first half of 2015. </p>
<p>Scentre Group, owner-operator of the Australian Westfield shopping centre assets, is also spending up on redevelopment with $825 million of works announced. Some of the costs will be covered using proceeds from the sale of four smaller shopping centres that did not fit with the group’s long-term strategy. </p>
<p>Several listed property companies have noted the high prices that quality commercial assets are commanding.</p>
<p>“We expect quality Australian property to remain attractive to both domestic and off shore investors given the high Australian property yield spread to bond yields and that the cost of debt remains near record lows,” Charter Hall Group joint chief executive David Harrison said in announcing the fund manager’s results. </p>
<p>Charter Hall Group delivered a statutory after-tax profit of $117.9 million, up 43.6%. Its operating earnings were $98.8 million, up 21.7%. </p>
<p>Cromwell Property Group, which owns offices and operates property funds, said market conditions had lead it to be a net seller of assets.</p>
<p>“We believe some of the current sales activity represents peak of the cycle pricing for prime office assets, notably in Sydney and Melbourne,” Cromwell chief executive Paul Weightman said.</p>
<p>Cromwell reported statutory profit of $148.8 million, down from $182.5 million in 2014. It delivered operating earnings per security of 8.35 cents per share and distributions per security of 7.86 cents, up 3% on the previous year and in line with guidance. </p>
<p>While asset prices were up, trading conditions in commercial property have been mixed.</p>
<p>National Storage REIT, which owns and operates self-storage centres, said weak business and consumer confidence and high levels of discounting among its competitors had created variable trading conditions for its business. </p>
<p>The REIT, which listed at the end of 2013 and was admitted into the S&amp;P/ASX 200 in June 2015, reported an after-tax profit of $48.7 million and underlying earnings of 8.2 cents per security in line with guidance. </p>
<p>Residential property markets are also variable across the country. </p>
<p>Lend Lease, like other major residential developers, reported revenue from its residential division was up dramatically. The group reported $5.2 billion in pre-sales revenue for the year, more than double the prior year’s result. </p>
<p>Sunland Group reported improving consumer sentiment in Sydney, Melbourne and south-east Queensland drove development margins higher and helped it deliver an after-tax profit of $30.1 million, 111% up on its 2014 result. </p>
<p>Peet Limited reported a statutory profit of $38.5 million, up 27% on the previous year’s result as lower sales at its developments in Western Australia and the Northern Territory were partly offset by the strong performance of its projects in Victoria.</p>
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Big property companies reporting strongly: Zoe Fielding

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>In the next couple of weeks you’ll start to see all the signs of the change of season. Like many Sydneysiders, I’m looking forward to the longer hours of sunshine and flowers blossoming.</p>
<p>Inevitably, and unfortunately, we’re about to see an increase in property spruikers declaring “The main selling season is here!” (2012) “The market is poised for a bumper spring!” (2013), “There’ll be a strong surge in the traditional spring selling season!” (2014).</p>
<p>The chart below shows why:</p>
<p><span class="caption">Average ABS House Price Index Return by Season</span></p>
<div class="enlarge_hint"><a href="/images/2015/08/31/image-20150828-17468-500s53.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div class="enlarge_hint"><img src="/images/2015/08/31/image-20150828-17468-500s53.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p>The thing is, though, it’s just a marketing gimmick.</p>
<p>Yes, the house price index appears to increase a lot more, on average, in Spring. But so does the sales volume. Why would people knowingly jump into the housing market at the seasonal peak?</p>
<p>It couldn’t just be that these property buyers don’t know that this is the annual peak. For our relative size, the number of inquiries, studies and urban policy research should mean Australians are among the most informed in the world when it comes to real estate markets.</p>
<p>In a 2009 research article I explore this phenomenon (available on SSRN) and show that the “Spring bounce” is an artefact of inadequate statistical modelling.</p>
<p>Many house price indices are limited by the availability of data, and rely on median prices to get a sense for what’s going on across the market. However, the change in the observed median sales price can have more to do with the types of properties that are selling from period to period than the actual market movement.</p>
<p>The underlying reality is that nicer properties sell through Spring: typically larger, well-located, ready to sell properties. And, unsurprisingly, these nicer properties tend to sell for more. Why is this the case? In many situations it is because of the education and work calendar - families relocating (resulting in buying and selling houses) will more often than not do so over the summer break. Given property settlement times, this means looking for a new house through spring.</p>
<p>So what advice can we take from this? For those needing to move for the very reason outlined above and braving an upcoming auction, try to avoid FOMO (“fear-of-missing-out”), for another property will come on to the market soon. If you don’t need to buy now, the data would suggest you should wait until summer when many are away on vacation, and pick up a spring-listed property that remains unsold - hopefully for a discount!</p>
<p><em><span class="fn author-name" style="line-height: 1.3em;">Danika Wright is </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Lecturer in Finance at University of Sydney and author for The Conversation. You can contact </span>her<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/danika-wright-121868" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></em></p>
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Spring selling season and other gimmicks

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<p>After a long Victorian winter, we’re on the cusp of spring. It’s an exciting season in Melbourne- especially for sports fans that look forward to the AFL Grand Final and Melbourne Cup. It’s also the busiest time of year for the property market and a time for aspiring investors to make a start.</p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Yet starting is often the hardest part of investing. It’s crucial to remember this spring that whilst you can’t control or even predict the market, much like the result of the Melbourne Cup or footy finals, you can control what property you purchase and where it is.</span></p>
<p>With property prices in Melbourne rising around 10% since last year, asset selection will be key to property purchase this coming spring if you’re not to back a loser. </p>
<p>There are two main factors that influence an asset’s performance; the property itself and where the property is located. </p>
<p>In a moment, I will identify the areas in Melbourne where we at Wakelin Property Advisory like to buy property and the prices they will typically cost this spring. </p>
<p>I’ll be look at investment grade one bedroom apartments, two bedroom apartments and two bedroom houses.</p>
<p>But first.</p>
<p>Let me briefly recap some asset selection criteria for Wakelin Property Advisory, and how it ensures we only recommend investment grade property to our clients.</p>
<p>Firstly, a property really needs to be held for ten years and the ideal situation is one where you never sell.</p>
<p>Scarcity is the vital ingredient to property selection. If there is an ample supply of a property type relative to demand – and there is scope for more to be built – that property isn’t scarce and it won’t grow in value. An investment grade must exist in finite numbers.</p>
<p>So typically, period style properties perform best, as to put it simply, they aren’t being made anymore.</p>
<p>So houses we tend to recommend are pre 1950s such as Victorian, Federation, Edwardian or Art Deco architecture styles.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>Apartments we consider are older styled – up to the 1970s – one and two bedroom apartments.</p>
<p>Proximity to amenities, parks, shopping precincts, public transport and schools are also important in your selection.</p>
<p>A dedicated off-street car parking space is essential for inner city apartment purchases, and balconies or courtyards are also highly sought after.</p>
<p>Ultimately, you are seeking a property that has a proven record of capital growth over many years. One that has performed in the past will generally continue to perform.</p>
<p>Ok, so take a look at this map of Melbourne. </p>
<p>We are particularly interested in the inner suburbs, as they have the best track record of growth and in our view have the best long term prospects.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>So let’s break it down further:</p>
<p>•Inner Eastern suburbs,</p>
<p>•The Bayside region,</p>
<p>•And, the inner north.</p>
<p>This includes areas like South Yarra, Armadale, Malvern, Toorak and Hawthorn.</p>
<p>Traditionally these areas represent the most expensive and sought after real estate in Melbourne, they have been the bluest of blue chips. So how much is one likely to pay to enter this market?</p>
<p>A good one bedroom apartment in South Yarra will start around $450 to 500,000.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>$650 to 750,000 in the inner eastern suburbs gets a reasonable two bedroom apartment in somewhere like Hawthorn.</p>
<p>$850-$950,000 is the entry level for a two bedroom house in the eastern suburbs, with around $1million ideally needed to get something that will really perform in suburbs like Prahran.</p>
<p>Turning to the inner Bayside. It used to be that Melbournians paid little attention to its waterfront. But no longer....</p>
<p>It’s full of highly regarded locations such as Albert Park, Middle Park, Elwood and St Kilda.</p>
<p>So, for a two edroom house in this area you’d need at least $1.2 million, with room to move up to around $1.4 million.</p>
<p>For apartments, suburbs like Elwood can prove a great investment as well as parts of St Kilda.</p>
<p>Typically, you’d be looking to spend at least $450,000 in somewhere like this for a one bedroom apartment, and up to around $550,000.</p>
<p>And for a two bedroom apartment in somewhere like St Kilda or St Kilda West, you’re looking to start around $600 to 650,000. Typically, at least $100,000 more than for a one bedroom in a similar area.</p>
<p>The north is a real mixture of property; full of warehouse conversions, cottages, shiny new apartments and old pre-war houses. However, it is still important to remember this concept of scarcity when examining your options in the North. <span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>Consider suburbs such as Carlton North, Brunswick, Kensington, Flemington and Ascot Vale.</p>
<p>For a one bedroom apartment in the inner north, you’re looking to start around $400,000 in somewhere like Brunswick and going up the closer to the city you get.</p>
<p>If you’re looking for a two bedroom apartment, be prepared to invest $650,000 or more in the inner north in somewhere like Carlton North.</p>
<p>Those looking for a two bedroom house will need around $800,000 in the inner north for a quality property in somewhere like Ascot Vale or Kensington, to in excess of $1 million for A1 property in Carlton North.</p>
<p> <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">We’ll quickly examine some factors that may affect the market this coming spring and what the effects of these factors may have on prices.</span></p>
<p>Momentum of the Melbourne market has gathered a lot of media interest as of late with plenty of commentary discussing whether there is or isn’t a bubble and it’s hard not to get caught up. </p>
<p>But, if you keep in mind our concept of scarcity when purchasing property you shouldn’t have to worry.</p>
<p>Remember, they are the finite properties that will always build value if held for the long term.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>Interest rates obviously affect the initial buying power and how much can be borrowed.</p>
<p>Currently, we have historically low rates and this is driving strong demand.</p>
<p>However, in recent weeks, we’ve observed the banks tightening the rules on lending for investors. The results has been higher interest rates for these borrowers and restrictions on how much they can borrow relative to an asset’s value.</p>
<p>It is evidence that rates won’t always be low and that one needs to factor in rates increases of 2 to 3%, so it is important to ensure that you are borrowing within your means.</p>
<p>Backing a winner this spring might be a bit of a fluke in the Melbourne Cup, but choosing the right investment property doesn’t have to be such a gamble if you follow our investment criteria.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><em>RICHARD WAKELIN is the director and founder of </em><a href="https://wakelin.com.au/" target="_blank"><span><em>Wakelin Property Advisory</em></span></a><em>.</em></p>
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 Exciting springtime market buzz hits Melbourne: Richard Wakelin

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<p>326 apartments in Crown Group's Infinity in Green Square will be released for sale this Saturday from 8am.</p>
<p>Infinity, located at 301-303 Botany Road is worth $575 million and designed by Koichi Takada Architects.</p>
<p>The sales launch will be held at the company’s head office at 1 Market St Sydney<strong> </strong>this Saturday, with apartments priced from $650 000.</p>
<p>Construction of Infinity by Crown Group is expected to be completed in 2019.</p>
<p>For more information, click <a href="https://infinitybycrowngroup.com.au" target="_blank">here</a>.</p>
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Green Square project to launch this weekend

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<p>Sydney’s property market is predicted to be healthy and stable this spring. </p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The market has been like a steam train the past 18 months with prices accelerating far too quickly and a lot of talk of a bubble, however it has now found its feet and is well on the road to a healthier, balanced position. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">This spring, with the Australian economy still strong and consumer sentiment up, we’re hopefully set to see an increase in the number of first home buyers entering the market, as well as an increase in listings. </span></p>
<p>My top seven trends for Sydney’s property market this spring are:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<strong>Heightened stability.</strong> Over the past 18 months, Sydney’s market conditions were frantic and unpredictable, however, we’re now beginning to see a calming of the waters. The market is far less volatile - people know what they’re in for - and with this heightened sense of consumer confidence comes more action and more listings. </li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>
<strong>More listings</strong>. With consumer sentiment up, expect to see more properties on the market this spring compared to last. This time last year, buyers were unsure of what would happen, adopting a ‘wait and see’ mentality. However, this year, the market is much more consistent and we should see more stock hit the market as a result.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>
<strong>Slightly lower clearance rates.</strong> So far this year Sydney’s auction clearance rate has consistently hovered around the mid-80% mark, however, we are likely to see this drop slightly to around the mid-70s. This is still an exceptionally high clearance rate and a sign of a strong, healthy market – one that is stable and less fickle.   <span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span>
</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>
<strong>Less local investors.</strong> As banks become more prudent about responsible lending, we’ll see less local investors in the market this spring.As investors back off a bit, we are likely to see the number of first home buyers increase by as much as 3-5%. </li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>
<strong>Apartments, apartments, apartments</strong>. Sydney is going apartment crazy. We’ll see more being built and more being sold. Although I’m pleased to see more dwellings being approved and constructed, my lingering concern is that a disproportionate amount are still being sold to overseas investors. This spring we’ll no doubt see more debate and discussion on this topic.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>
<strong>Emerging growth suburbs.</strong> There will be a surge in buying activity in regional areas close to metropolitan cities, as buyers walk away from Sydney in favour of areas such as the Central Coast. Newcastle and Wollongong should also experience increased demand from buyers as Sydney properties become increasingly unobtainable. In Sydney, it’s Mascot, Botany, Riverstone and Leppington that are emerging as the next big growth areas. </li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>
<strong>Prices to increase but at a balanced rate.</strong> Property prices will continue to rise, but at a healthier, less accelerated rate. Rather than the 1-1.5% per month increases we’ve been experiencing, I expect to see closer to half a percent increase in prices for the remainder of this year, making it more achievable for first home buyers to purchase their ideal home this spring. </li>
</ul>
<p> </p>
<p><em><span>DOUGLAS DRISCOLL</span> is CEO of real estate agency <a href="https://www.starrpartners.com.au/" target="_blank">Starr Partners</a>.</em></p>
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Top seven trends for Sydney’s property market: Douglas Driscoll

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<p>T<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">he Museum of Contemporary Art director, Liz Ann Macgregor, best know for her colourful tartan wardrobe, is swapping inner Sydney terrace living for the lower north shore.</span></p>

<p><span>With partner Peter, Liz Ann has quietly bought in Cremorne, a freestanding 1910 Federation Arts and Crafts two storey home costing a tad over $3 million. Four double bedrooms, three suitably with large built-ins.</span></p>

<p><span>Their combined 1890s Thompson Street Darlinghurst terraces have sold for $2.05 million through Ray White agent Gavin Rubinstein, a nice gain having been bought five years earlier for $1.64 million.</span></p>

<p><span>[smartcode_project:default project_id=5910]</span></p>

<p><em>This article was first published in the Daily Telegraph.</em></p>
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