A locally heritage-listed furniture showroom on Water Street is set to become the centrepiece of a new mixed-use residential development as local developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/keylin-group">Keylin</a> seeks approval for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lotus-on-water-street-290-water-street-fortitude-valley-qld-4006">Lotus on Water Street</a>, a 15-storey project on the Fortitude Valley side of Spring Hill.

The proposal spans 290 Water Street and 137-141 Warry Street, combining several properties into a 2,869 sqm site that sits between Fortitude Valley, Spring Hill and the rapidly evolving Victoria Park precinct. Keylin's plans would deliver 132 apartments alongside new retail, hospitality and commercial space, while retaining and repurposing the historic Brunswick Home Furnishers Showroom that fronts Water Street.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/jackson-teece">Jackson Teece</a>, Lotus on Water Street comprises a 12-storey residential tower rising above a three-storey podium and communal rooftop terrace. The development includes 76 apartments classified as multiple dwellings and a further 56 units proposed as short-term accommodation, designed to be flexibly used as either accommodation or permanent residences. The apartment mix comprises six one-bedroom, 54 two-bedroom and 16 three-bedroom homes.

<img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9822bb79-6c49-49c9-95ba-319e8c8d81c3" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20front.png?VersionId=ioW8zbN4UVebbLetTFuv92t.HkdgfR5e" />

Residents would have access to an extensive rooftop recreation level spanning more than 1,200 sqm of communal open space. Plans include a pool, gym, sauna, infrared sauna, yoga area, library, private dining room, barbecue facilities and landscaped entertainment spaces, making the rooftop the project's largest shared amenity offering.

At street level, the proposal focuses on the adaptive reuse of the heritage buildings along Water Street, where 518 sqm of retail and commercial space is planned across shop, office and food and drink outlet uses. A permeable residential lobby would be positioned between the retained heritage buildings, creating a pedestrian connection between the historic streetscape and the new tower behind.

<img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="269cf3e0-7d13-48bf-a318-05a00deb5c10" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20podium.png?VersionId=DLXmTCLsp6GOcLpQ0h.0z7wKCw59EhN_" />

The heritage retention strategy is central to the scheme. The development application notes that the Brunswick Home Furnishers Showroom and adjoining heritage buildings will remain, with only non-significant structures on the site earmarked for removal under a previously issued Heritage Exemption Certificate. Levels one and two of the new podium are recessed behind the heritage façades to maintain their prominence within the streetscape.

Jackson Teece has drawn inspiration from the site's manufacturing history when designing the podium. The planning documents state that the façade incorporates perforated metal screening that references the woven and rattan furniture historically produced on the site. Cascading and climbing plants are integrated throughout the podium to soften the building's presentation and screen parking levels behind. The landscape strategy also informs the project's name, Lotus on Water Street, drawing on the historic Spring Hollow waterholes that once ran through Spring Hill and the blue water lilies associated with Meeanjin, Brisbane's traditional name.

The proposal also incorporates the neighbouring property at 141 Warry Street, currently occupied by a healthcare service. The existing building would remain, with nine dedicated parking spaces allocated within the new development to support its ongoing operation. In total, Lotus on Water Street proposes 117 car spaces, including 110 resident spaces and seven visitor bays, alongside 100 bicycle spaces.

<img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="70cf07bc-4fd8-4e70-92dd-be8b21c4e4f0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20site.png?VersionId=txlxrJImM0Sm_vTzHVKh5DDUkyL_CiiA" />

The site sits within the Spring Hill East Precinct of the Spring Hill Neighbourhood Plan and is positioned around 650 metres from both Fortitude Valley Station and Exhibition Station. It is also within walking distance of the King Street precinct, Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Herston Quarter and Victoria Park, which is earmarked to become a major venue precinct ahead of the Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

Planning documents describe the location as a key gateway between Spring Hill and Fortitude Valley and highlight the area's increasing importance as new transport infrastructure and Olympic-related investment reshape Brisbane's inner north. The development team argues the project will contribute additional housing supply while activating a section of Water Street that has historically received less investment than other parts of the Valley.

Keylin has become increasingly active across Brisbane and southeast Queensland, assembling sites in strategic inner-city locations. They are currently selling and delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/oria-spring-hill-447-gregory-terrace-spring-hill-qld-4000">Oria Spring Hill</a>, just over 140 apartments due for completion in 2027.

Joel Robinson

Keylin plans heritage-led Lotus on Water Street apartment development in Fortitude Valley

Roseville is poised for a wave of new apartment development following the NSW Government's rezoning of land around Roseville Station under its Transport Oriented Development program.

The new planning controls have unlocked significant development potential within walking distance of the station, with a number of sites expected to be amalgamated and redeveloped in the coming years as developers seek to take advantage of the increased density allowances.

One of the more restrained developments in the precinct, and set among the first to be delivered having commenced well before the recent changes, is Hyecorp's Juliet. The boutique apartment project is already well under construction and remains on track to welcome residents by the end of the year, offering a markedly different proposition to many of the larger-scale developments now likely to emerge across the suburb.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278194]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/juliet-roseville-64-pacific-highway-roseville-nsw-2069">Juliet</a> will comprise just&nbsp;34 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments opposite Roseville Station. For Hyecorp, which has delivered projects across Sydney's Lower North Shore for more than three decades, Roseville presented a rare opportunity to address a growing gap in the market.

"<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/roseville-nsw-2069">Roseville</a> has long been one of the North Shore's most tightly held and desirable suburbs, offering a unique combination of village charm, established greenery, excellent transport connections, and proximity to some of Sydney's best schools and lifestyle amenities," Hyecorp said.

"We recognised a growing demand from local homeowners seeking to downsize without leaving the community they have built their lives around. The location presented a rare opportunity to create homes that cater specifically to that buyer profile."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278196]

The six-level development has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/pbd-architects">PBD Architects</a> as a collection of residences that feel more like homes than apartments. The brief centred generous floorplans, abundant natural light, quality finishes, and strong connections to outdoor space.

PBD Architects drew inspiration from Roseville's established garden suburb character, creating a building that sits comfortably within its surroundings rather than dominating them. The architecture incorporates natural materials, soft forms, layered landscaping, expansive balconies, and generous setbacks to strengthen the connection between residents and the suburb's leafy environment.

"The focus was on designing spacious, house-like residences for discerning owner-occupiers and downsizers who wanted to remain on the North Shore without compromising on comfort, privacy, or design," PBD said.&nbsp;

"Every apartment was to feel considered, timeless, and highly functional."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278195]

Inside, residences feature engineered timber flooring, stone kitchen benchtops and splashbacks, integrated Fisher &amp; Paykel appliances, ducted air conditioning, and large outdoor entertaining areas designed to take advantage of district and treetop views.

Residents will also have access to a rooftop barbecue and lounge area, alongside practical amenities including parcel lockers, EV charging capability, bicycle storage, a dog wash bay, and a basement car wash facility.

The majority of purchasers so far have been local owner-occupiers from Roseville, Lindfield, Chatswood, Killara, and the broader Upper North Shore, many of whom are transitioning from larger family homes.

"Buyers are looking for spacious, house-like apartments that allow them to downsize without feeling like they are sacrificing comfort or functionality," Hyecorp noted.

"They value large kitchens, generous living areas, ample storage, quality finishes, secure parking, lift access, and low-maintenance living."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278204]

Juliet sits directly opposite Roseville Train Station and within walking distance of Roseville Village, while Chatswood's retail and dining precinct is only minutes away. The development is also surrounded by some of Sydney's most established schools, including Roseville College, Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College, and Knox Grammar, as well as nearby parklands and golf courses.

Juliet is currently more than 75 per cent sold ahead of its anticipated completion in late 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7395]

Juliet to sit quietly amid Roseville apartment boom

Sherpa Property Group has unveiled the third instalment of its Flourish series, securing full approval for the two-tower, $500 million Flourish Soleira development in Palm Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-1150-1154-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> will rise from a prominent site in the commercial heart of Palm Beach, the long-time home of Cash Converters and a range of local retailers.

The project will introduce a new retail and dining precinct at ground level, beneath 286 apartments.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370959]

“We’re very committed to not only providing affordable residential offerings that are much needed in Palm Beach, but also delivering a vibrant new commercial heart that complements the extraordinary growth of the southern Gold Coast,” Sherpa Property Group founder Christie Leet said.

The development will sit under Sherpa's Flourish brand, which is aimed at providing a pathway into the beachside suburb for locals, first-home buyers and downsizers. In a move designed to assist first-home buyers entering the market, Sherpa has reserved all one and two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartments exclusively for eligible first-home buyers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370964]

“Our vision through Flourish is to create a vibrant retail and lifestyle focal point within the Palm Beach centre zone, delivering thriving communities underpinned by lifestyle-rich locations,” Leet said.

“So far, Flourish has been an incredible success, and we hope to carry this momentum as we progress the next two Flourish projects in Palm Beach.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=371430]

Located across 1150-1164 Gold Coast Highway and 3 Sixth Avenue, the development will comprise two towers. The northern tower will deliver 154 apartments, while the southern tower will add a further 132 residences, helping address ongoing demand for new apartments in the tightly held coastal suburb.

Flourish Soleira will also feature the most extensive rooftop amenity offering ever delivered in Palm Beach.

The two towers will be connected by a skybridge, with residents gaining access to a rooftop recreation deck featuring a full-width swimming pool, hot and cold plunge pools, wellness spaces, a gymnasium, private dining facilities, massage treatment rooms, barbecue areas, a basketball court, golf simulator, indoor and outdoor dining spaces, sun lounges and extensive landscaping.

LPS Group is expected to start construction later this year.

Sherpa is already well advanced on construction of its debut Flourish project, Flourish Amargo, located just around the corner from Soleira. Meanwhile, Flourish Oasis, positioned opposite Amargo, recently commenced construction and has nearly sold out its collection of 47 apartments.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]

Sherpa unveils $500m mixed-use Palm Beach precinct, Flourish Soleira

Are mortgage holders set to get a reprieve from the RBA in 2026?

Big Four bank NAB believes so. They are now expecting the next move from the RBA to be a cut, rather than a hike, which they had pencilled in for August. They are unsure of the timing of the cut however, they note in their latest&nbsp;NAB Economics RBA Watch.

NAB Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said recent data suggests the economy has lost momentum and the outlook for rates has shifted, noting that the broader economic backdrop has changed since earlier in the year.

“The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain," Dr Auld said.

"In February, growth was above trend, the economy was operating above capacity and there was uncertainty over the restrictiveness of rates. None of these conditions exist today,” she outlined.

Dr Auld said recent data pointed to softer momentum across the economy while acknowledging that at the same time, uncertainty remains a key feature of the outlook.

“Both Q1 GDP data and the NAB business survey suggest momentum in the economy has slowed, meaning that growth has likely peaked for the cycle. That said, we are cognisant there is still considerable uncertainty around the outlook, both with respect to activity and inflation.”

Dr Auld said inflation risks and labour market outcomes would be important to watch.

“On the prices side, we are still forecasting above target core inflation through to mid-2027. Margins will compress and weaker labour market outcomes are a risk.”

She said tighter financial conditions are expected to weigh on housing and activity.

“Tighter financial conditions will be reflected in a slowing in house price growth and housing credit growth. In summary, we have greater conviction that the next move in rates is down, but less conviction on the timing.”

Mortgage relief? NAB forecasts RBA rate cut, not hike, after softer economic conditions

A local downsizer has splashed $6.5 million on a penthouse in Perifa's Alex &amp; Willow development in Crows Nest. 
&nbsp; 
The purchaser sold their long-held family home in the area before embarking on a six-month search for the right apartment. After inspecting a range of options across the Lower North Shore, the buyer returned to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/alex-willow-crows-nest-82-90-alexander-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Alex &amp; Willow</a>. 
&nbsp; 
The buyer profile reflects the project’s broader purchaser mix. <a>Alex &amp; Willow</a> has attracted predominantly local downsizers looking to transition from larger homes without compromising on space or quality, alongside a smaller cohort of upsizers and investors drawn to the project’s location and design credentials. 
&nbsp; 
The milestone sale comes as the project, developed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/perifa">Perifa</a>&nbsp;and delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/versatile-made-construction">Versatile Construction</a>, both part of Versatile Group, reaches 60 per cent sold.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=371325] 
&nbsp; 
Eddie Mansour, Managing Partner of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/ray-white-projects">Ray White Projects</a>, said the result demonstrates not only a headline price but also depth of demand. 
&nbsp; 
“This is an exceptional outcome and a clear reflection of sustained buyer demand for premium, well-located downsizer product,” Mansour said.

“We’re seeing a consistent pattern of local homeowners selling family residences and reinvesting into high-quality apartments that allow them to remain within their community. Alex &amp; Willow has resonated strongly with this group because it offers genuine scale, thoughtful design and immediate proximity to the village.” 
&nbsp; 
The sale reflects a broader and consistent trend of local downsizers actively seeking high-quality, low-maintenance residences close to established village centres. Agents report that demand for this product type has remained resilient, particularly where developments offer a rare combination of scale, design quality and walkable amenity. 
&nbsp;&nbsp; 
Fabrizio Perilli, Managing Director of Perifa and Versatile Group, said the sale marks a defining moment for the project. 
&nbsp; 
“The penthouse sale is a strong endorsement of the quality we have delivered, alongside our partners, and the clear demand from local downsizers for premium, boutique residences in this location,” Perilli said.&nbsp; 
&nbsp; 
“Most importantly, we’re proud to see the Alex &amp; Willow community beginning to take shape. As we move closer to completion, we’re looking forward to welcoming residents and seeing the project come to life.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=338516] 
&nbsp; 
Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/nettletontribe">Nettleton Tribe</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/richards-stanisich">Richards Stanisich</a>, Alex &amp; Willow is a boutique collection of generously sized two- and three-bedroom residences in the heart of Crows Nest village.&nbsp;

Completion is slated for early 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6680]

Alex & Willow, Crows Nest penthouse sells off the plan for $6.5 million

Property market

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The Credit Suisse head of private banking Edward Jewell-Tait and his wife, Jo have bought in Rose Bay, having secured the surprise off-market sale of their intended tree change Robertson farm.
Their $6.85 million Rose Bay acquisition was from David Baldwin, the chief executive of Integrated Gas at Origin Energy, and his wife, Johanna.
With its leafy panorama over Sydney Harbour, the Baldwins had renovated the two level residence designed by 1960s architect Henry Pollack after they paid $4.1 million in 2013. 
The Jewell-Tait's were in the spotlight last month after selling Two Gates Farm to businessman Nick Politis. The 40-hectare property sold for $4.7 million having been bought for $4.55 million eight months earlier <a href="/expert-insights/investing/former-wallabies-coach-bob-dwyer-lists-southern-highlands-home">in 2014 from the former World Cup winning Wallabies coach Bob Dwyer and his wife, Ruth</a>.  
This article first appeared in the Saturday Daily Telegraph.
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Edward Jewell Tait buys in Rose Bay after Robertson sale

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South Australia's Howcroft Estate Vineyard is on the market with price expectations of around $9 million or roughly $22,000 per ha of vines planted.
The vineyard, a total of approximately 536.79ha has two planted areas - one a total area of 222.58ha, and the other 189.41ha, with 412ha of mature vines. <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-viticulture-sa-mundulla-7720931" target="_blank">Howcroft Vineyards 1 and 2</a> were developed from 1998-2000.
The vineyard has red grape varietals, a five year grape supply agreement and a mix of premium varieties suited to the Limestone Coast Zone.
The property is for sale through Colliers International’s Tim Altschwager. He said the vineyards are situated within the Bordertown wine region and are amongst the largest commercial vineyards in the district. 
"The Limestone Coast Zone, which stretches from Bordertown in South Australia’s north to Mount Gambier in the south, is one of South Australia’s most recognised wine hubs," he said.
"It includes the famous Coonawarra region, internationally acclaimed for its Cabernet Sauvignon and Shiraz wines which thrive in the cool and sunny climate and terra rossa soils." 
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South Australia's Howcroft Estate Vineyard listed

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Queens Park, Clovelly and Malabar are the top three Sydney locations for the highest proportion of house auction listings nationally, according to CoreLogic RP Data research director Tim Lawless.
He said Queens Park had 59 out of 60 house listings (98.3%) being taken to auction. 
"Across the unit market two suburbs of Melbourne topped the list for auction listings with Kew East recording 33 out of 34 unit listings (97.1%) as being advertised for auction," he said.
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Top ten suburbs for highest proportion of house auction listings: CoreLogic RP Data 

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A major Sydney newspaper headline proclaimed this week that “Sydney’s property market boom is finally over but house prices remain high”.
Well, exactly. Therein lies the problem.
The article went on to say: “Sydney’s housing boom has finally reached its peak, but don’t expect house prices to start falling any time soon.”
In fact, Hotspotting research indicates the Sydney market reached its peak in the December quarter last year and sales activity has been on a gradual decline since then.
It’s taken the market and the media more than half a year to realise what’s happening.
Analysts, economists, commentators and writers rely on movements in median prices to inform their view of property markets. The problem is that median price data is at least six months behind the game.
The alleged median price for Sydney is still rising, even though the number of sales has been fading, auction clearance rates have been falling and professionals at the coalface have been reporting an easing of competition and evaporation of the boom-time heat.
The market is clearly heading south but, according to the price data much-beloved by almost everyone, it’s still rising.
Market watchers should be observing sales activity. The number of sales happening in markets provide a much more accurate and timely picture of market trends – and they can predict price movements. 
This is the basis of the Price Predictor Index published quarterly by hotspotting.com.au. We chart sales volumes in every suburb and town in the nation.
And this is what it’s telling us:-
<ul>
<li>The number of Sydney growth suburbs is one-third of the number six months ago.</li>
<li>Regional New South Wales is rising and has twice as many growth markets as Sydney does.</li>
<li>Adelaide and Brisbane have both overtaken Sydney and continue to rise (but you won’t know it if you rely on median price data).</li>
<li>Melbourne has faded a little but remains more buoyant than Sydney.</li>
<li>Regional Queensland has almost as many growth markets as Brisbane does.</li>
<li>The strongest market region in the nation, now, is South East Queensland, with Brisbane, the Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast all busy.</li>
<li>There are also markets in serious decline and they’re all locations that previously rose with the resources boom and were oversupplied by over-zealous developers.</li>
</ul>
The sales volumes data shows that the pecking order in Australian real estate is changing – but it won’t show up in the median price growth figures any time soon.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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The Sydney market is clearly heading south: Terry Ryder

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Capital city home values for the five combined cities are up 10.4% annually, according to new figures from CoreLogic RP Data.
CoreLogic RP Data's Hedonic Home value Index for August found the greatest year to date change was in Sydney, with 13.9% 
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Combined capital city home values up 10.4% annually: CoreLogic RP Data

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GUEST OBSERVER
The Sydney property market is reasonably discerning. 
With the new APRA guidelines interest rates for investors are higher than for home buyers and already in most cases investors have a 20% deposit which means they have a buffer built in.
Some, particularly those with self managed super funds have hefty deposits.
It is also important to remember that only 30% of Australians actually have mortgages.
Real estate is also attractive as negative gearing creates affordability and there is tax effectiveness and income. First home buyers should not be waiting to enter the market at the right time. It is about buying when you can afford to buy.
If the market shortens rents go up and they are worse off. First home buyers should not be trying to speculate on the property market because you don’t make money in real estate in the short term. Real estate has a seven year cycle so there is no real right or wrong time to buy or sell.
It is not like playing the share market, it has a much longer cycle.
Malcolm Gunning is president of the Real Estate Institute of New South Wales and can be contacted <a href="https://www.reinsw.com.au/imis15_prod/">here</a>.
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Spring Sydney property market is reasonably discerning: REINSW's Malcolm Gunning

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Actor Vince Colosimo has sold his Northcote home.
The double-storey terrace, expected to sell for $1.4 million plus, went last weekend for an undisclosed price.
Despite Colosimo's movie credits including the acclaimed Australia-produced Lantana, it was revealed last year Colosimo was working on Melbourne building sites to make financial ends meet. 
<a href="https://www.realestateview.com.au/Real-Estate/86-union-street-northcote/Property-Details-buy-residential-9292976" target="_blank">Nelson Alexander's Grant Leonard</a> was the marketing agent of the Union Street offering. 
It last traded in 2000 at $303,000.
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Actor Vince Colosimo sells in Northcote

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GUEST OBSERVER
The ANZ Stateometer, released today, shows NSW and Victoria continue to improve solidly, with NSW extending its lead. 
The other states remain firmly below trend and so Q2 y/y GDP growth, when released tomorrow, is expected to have remained soft. 
The mining states appear to have arrested the slowing in activity for now, while SA has fallen further behind. 
Tasmania is at risk of losing steam, while the ACT was the biggest improver. 
NSW AND VICTORIA LEAD THE REBALANCING OF THE ECONOMY 
The inaugural ANZ Stateometer, a new indicator of economic activity for Australia’s states and territories, highlights the outperformance of NSW, but also a pick-up in economic momentum in Victoria. 
The upturn in activity for NSW and Victoria (which together account for more than half of Australia’s GDP) has been an important part of the rebalancing in activity as resources investment turned down. Given their strong inter-linkages with the rest of the country, NSW and Victoria’s performances bode well for an ongoing, albeit slow, recovery. 
But the below-trend performance of the bottom five states and territories affirms our expectation that tomorrow’s national accounts will show GDP growth remained soft in the June quarter. 
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THE ANZ STATEOMETER READINGS: 
Economic activity in NSW and Victoria was growing faster than long-run average rates over the year to the June quarter and accelerating. 
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Apart from Tasmania, which has recently fluctuated around its trend rate, growth in the remaining jurisdictions was firmly below average. 
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Queensland’s growth was below trend and momentum slowed slightly in the year to the June quarter. 
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WA and SA are furthest from average growth rates and growth slowed in SA in Q2 in year-ended terms. We see the slight quarterly pick-up in WA’s growth momentum as a momentary stabilisation in economic activity before further weakness occurs. We hold the same view for the NT.
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The ACT played catch-up in Q2 with a strong increase in economic momentum, but it remains well below its trend rate of growth. 
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<div class="column">NSW EXTENDING ITS LEAD ON THE REST OF THE COUNTRY</div>
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 Residential investment, labour market conditions, business conditions, and pockets of commercial property have been relatively strong in both NSW and Victoria, but the former has outperformed according to the ANZ Stateometer.
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 Tasmania and Queensland share some of these strong states’ characteristics; they have solid housing and private consumption, and are also benefiting from the depreciating Australian dollar. We expect their below-trend, lower momentum position on the ANZ Stateometer will change as these drivers lead to recovery rather than further deterioration.
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 Economic activity in WA and SA are firmly on a downward trend. For WA it is the ongoing falls in resources investment, while SA is dealing with a broader malaise in its industrial sector. All other states and territories have shown some pick-up in economic activity over the first half of the year.
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 The NT has also seen a substantial contraction in economic activity from a decline in business investment, and growth remains well below its trend rate. The recent pick- up in its reading on the ANZ Stateometer has been narrowly based, so we do not expect it to be long-lived.
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 The ANZ Stateometer also shows the ACT economy has been growing well below its trend rate since late 2011, largely due to Commonwealth budget consolidation. The index deteriorated precipitously over 2014 off the back of a consolidating labour market and its impact on consumption. The index has improved sharply recently. 
 
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Kirk Zammit is economist, ANZ and Cherelle Murphy is co-head of Australian Economics, ANZ. They can be contacted <a href="https://bluenotes.anz.com/authors/our-economists/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Big states pull away from the pack: ANZ Stateometer

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Spring is expected to bring an increase in listing numbers but whether buyer demand keeps pace with the additional level of homes for sale is another question, according to CoreLogic RP Data's head of research Tim Lawless.
The CoreLogic RP Data Hedonic Home Value Index for August found new listing numbers are 5.5% higher across capital cities when compared with the same time last year. There was a 16% lift in fresh listings for Sydney and a 10% lift in Melbourne.
Mr Lawless said this is indicative that the spring listing trend is already accelerating as vendors look to take advantage of the strong selling conditions. 
"The Spring season will provide a timely litmus test for the housing market given it’s a time when listing numbers normally increase materially," he said.
"It will be important to monitor whether buyer demand keeps pace with the additional number of homes being advertised for sale."
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Spring listings increase needs buyer demand: CoreLogic RP Data's Tim Lawless

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The herd mentality and the FOMO syndrome drive far too many investment decisions in Australian real estate.
It helps to explain why most Australians who attempt property investment have a bad experience. 
When people are driven by an impulse to do what others are doing (the herd mentality) or to get in because they don’t want to miss all that lovely capital growth they keep hearing about (the FOMO – Fear Of Missing Out – syndrome), they’re buying well after the boom started.
Many investors buy real estate at the peak of the cycle. Worse, some buy after the peak.
People are still out there bidding up prices at Sydney auctions, driven by the FOMO syndrome, unaware that the peak has passed and Sydney’s boom is fading.
It means that fundamentally they are paying too much and destroying their chances of maximizing capital growth.
No one ever got rich following the herd. Some have succeeded by leading the herd but the truly successful people are those who run in the opposite direction to the herd.
People love the comfort of the pack. They would rather be part of a herd stampeding towards a cliff, than detach and run in the opposite direction, towards safety and potential prosperity.
Because of the power of the herd mentality and the FOMO syndrome, most people buy when prices are high.
When the market is down, they stay out of the market. They’ll get back in when they read that the herd is running again.
Crazy stuff. 
Right now, the Perth market is down. I’ve been suggesting to people it’s a great time to consider buying there. The Perth market, which was strong in 2011 and 2012, peaked early in 2013.
The heat has long since evaporated from that market, there’s no competition from other buyers, prices have eased off and the buying is good.
You just have to believe that the Western Australian economy has a future and that the Perth property market will rise again.
Taking a long-term view, Perth is a strong market with a great track record. Its 10-year capital growth record is the strongest among the state and territory capital cities, much better than Sydney’s or Melbourne’s.
It has a history of strong population growth and a buoyant economy boosted by its links to the resources sector. It’s currently struggling but that won’t last. 
Perth has also shown itself to be resilient during periods of downturn. I don’t expect any major price decline in the current phase, with the exception of oversupplied inner-city apartment markets which should be avoided.
While awaiting recovery in the Perth market, the best strategy to maximise capital growth prospects is to follow the infrastructure trail. Find a location primed to benefit from spending on new infrastructure, especially transport infrastructure, and well-linked to major jobs nodes.
Locations with those qualities include the precincts around Rockingham, Fremantle, Midland and Forrestfield.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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