<p data-end="587" data-start="368">Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.</p>

<p data-end="778" data-start="589">The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.</p>

<p data-end="907" data-start="780"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.</p>

<p data-end="1052" data-start="909">The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.</p>

<p data-end="1311" data-start="1054">The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.</p>

<p data-end="1451" data-start="1313">The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.</p>

<p data-end="1676" data-start="1453">MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.</p>

<p data-end="1908" data-start="1678">Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.</p>

<p data-end="2142" data-start="1910">The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.</p>

<p data-end="2142" data-start="1910"><img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" /></p>

<p data-end="2308" data-start="2144">MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.</p>

<p data-end="2648" data-start="2310">"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.</p>

<p data-end="2797" data-start="2650">"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."</p>

<p data-end="2938" data-start="2799">The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.</p>

<p data-end="3216" data-start="2940">Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.</p>

<p data-end="3325" data-start="3218">Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.</p>

<p data-end="3442" data-start="3327">"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.</p>

<p data-end="3662" data-start="3444">"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."</p>

<p data-end="3818" data-start="3664">MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.</p>

<p data-end="4076" data-start="3820">"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.</p>

<p data-end="4375" data-start="4078">"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."</p>

<p data-end="4503" data-start="4377">Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.</p>

<p data-end="4741" data-start="4505">"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."</p>

<p data-end="4910" data-start="4743">The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.</p>

<p data-end="4951" data-start="4912">MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.</p>


Joel Robinson

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

<main data-perf-region="main">
<p data-end="600" data-start="394">Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.</p>

<p data-end="733" data-start="602">But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.</p>

<p data-end="970" data-start="735">Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.</p>

<p data-end="970" data-start="735">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]</p>

<p data-end="1159" data-start="972">The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.</p>

<p data-end="1357" data-start="1161">It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.</p>

<p data-end="1664" data-start="1517">Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.</p>

<p data-end="1826" data-start="1666">Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.</p>

<p data-end="1826" data-start="1666">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]</p>

<p data-end="2045" data-start="1828">Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.</p>

<p data-end="2269" data-start="2047">"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.</p>

<p data-end="2430" data-start="2271">A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.</p>

<p data-end="2606" data-start="2432">It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.</p>

<p data-end="2724" data-start="2608">At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.</p>

<p data-end="2892" data-start="2726">Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.</p>

<p data-end="2892" data-start="2726">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]</p>

<p data-end="3004" data-start="2894">Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.</p>

<p data-end="3214" data-start="3006">"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.</p>

<p data-end="3670" data-start="3538">&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="3670" data-start="3538">[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]</p>

<h3 data-end="3697" data-section-id="q3n5ak" data-start="3672">&nbsp;</h3>
</main>


Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

<p>A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.</p>

<p>Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.</p>

<p>Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]</p>

<p>The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.</p>

<p>Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.</p>

<p>Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]</p>

<p>Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.</p>

<p>The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.</p>

<p>“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]</p>

<p>“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”</p>

<p>The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]</p>


Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

<p data-end="535" data-start="324">Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.</p>

<p data-end="717" data-start="537">The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.</p>

<p data-end="918" data-start="719">The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.</p>

<p data-end="1131" data-start="920">PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.</p>

<p data-end="1131" data-start="920"><img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" /></p>

<p data-end="1318" data-start="1133">Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.</p>

<p data-end="1433" data-start="1320">The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.</p>

<p data-end="1658" data-start="1591">A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.</p>

<p data-end="1864" data-start="1660">More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.</p>

<p data-end="2011" data-start="1866">The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.</p>

<p data-end="2011" data-start="1866"><img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" /></p>

<p data-end="2191" data-start="2013">The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.</p>

<p data-end="2365" data-start="2193">PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.</p>

<p data-end="2473" data-start="2367">“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.</p>

<p data-end="2775" data-start="2475">“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”</p>

<p data-end="2943" data-start="2777">The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.</p>

<p data-end="3145" data-start="3001">PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.</p>


PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

<p>Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.</p>

<p>The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.</p>

<p>That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.</p>

<p>The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.</p>

<p>A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.</p>

<p>Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.</p>

<p>While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.</p>


First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

Mortgages

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<p>The vast majority of properties sold nationwide to September 2015 did so at a profit, with 91.6% of sales over the quarter selling at a profit, according to the latest CoreLogic RP Data Pain &amp; Gain report.</p>
<p>The report found the total value of this profit was recorded at $17.3 billion, with the average gross profit $265,605. </p>
<p>According to the report some<span> 8.4% of all homes resold recorded a gross loss when compared to their previous purchase price; the lowest proportion of loss-making resales since December 2014.</span></p>
<p><span>"This figure was lower than the 9.2% over the June 2015 quarter and also lower than the 8.9% recorded a year ago. Across those dwellings which resold at a loss over the quarter, the total value of loss was $376.2 million with an average loss of $63,221," it noted.</span></p>
<p>"Nationally there was $376.2 million in realised losses over the quarter at an average of $63,221 and $17.3 billion in realised profit at an average of $265,605.</p>
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<p>"Across the capital cities, there were $193.5 million in losses with an average of $71,996 per loss-making resale compared to $14.4 billion in profit at an average of $324,887. The combined regional areas recorded $182.7 million in losses at an average of $55,996 compared to $2.9 billion in profit at an average of $139,798. The average losses were greater in the capital cities, however they also generally experienced much greater profits, more than double those in regional areas."</p>
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<p><span>The proportion of loss making resales is lower than the financial crisis peak nationwide with the exception of Darwin to September 2015, according to the latest CoreLogic RP Data Pain &amp; Gain report.</span></p>
<p><span>The report found </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">loss-making resales lower in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Hobart, higher in Perth and Darwin and flat in Adelaide and Canberra and said values growing sharply in Sydney and Melbourne over the year with moderate value growth in Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra and values falling in Perth and Darwin. </span></p>
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Proportion of loss-making resales lower than the financial crisis peak: Tim Lawless CoreLogic RP Data Pain & Gain national

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<div>Markets played around with the idea of the easing cycle being over for a while.</div>
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<div>Not any more, though, as the yield curve inverts once again.</div>
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<div>Still only a low probability of a cut in September. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, another rate cut is fully priced in for December, with the implied yield on August 2016 contracts sagging as low as 1.61%.</div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Interest rates to fall: Pete Wargent

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<div>Another data series which doesn't really fit the narrative of tight or stretched household budgets, as trend new car sales moved to their highest ever level in July 2015. </div>
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<div>This follows on from recently compiled Reserve Bank data which shows that mortgage redraw buffers and offset account balances are also at their highest ever level as household enjoy low interest rates and cheaper repayments.</div>
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<div>Of course, it often doesn't feel this way at the individual household level - interviews with the world's wealthiest people have shown that financial stress never entirely goes away whatever the true state of one's personal finances.</div>
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<div><span>The Reserve Bank itself has mused<span>:</span></span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><em>"The continued concern about living cost pressures might arise because the standard of living that can be sustainably afforded by households’ incomes remains lower than many would like."</em></div>
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<div>Certainly although wages growth is soft at +2.3 per cent, this has to date at least remained well in excess of the increase in the cost of living for employee households.</div>
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<div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Record new motor sales </span></strong></div>
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<div>In any event it was another monster month for new motor vehicle sales at a seasonaly adjusted 96,388 which saw trend sales reach an all-time record high in July 2015, having increased by 3.7 per cent over the past year. </div>
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<div>The result was all the remarkable given the weak data evident in the resources states, a slowing rate of population growth, as well as the fact that the Aussie dollar has depreciated sharply in recent times. </div>
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<div><span>Looking at the "original" data on a rolling annual basis we can see that more than 1.13 million new vehicle sales have been recorded over the past year, while the 588,619 units sold over the past six months is a record for any half year period in Australia's history.</span></div>
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<div><span>It was another prodigious month for Sports Utitlity (SUV) sales at more than 34,000 seasonally adjusted from fewer than 30,000 one year ago (a +14 per cent year-on-yearincrease), the annualised number of SUV sales climbing inexorably to beyond 380,000.</span></div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">State versus state</span></strong></div>
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<div>New South Wales has been recording a number of king-sized seasonally adjusted results in recent months, firing total new motor vehicle sales to their highest ever level in the Premier State. </div>
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<div>On a rolling annual basis new motor vehicle sales are rising in Queensland too, but are now looking somewhat peaky in Victoria after a fine run. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sales have declined moderately in South Australia over the past year, and fairly sharply in Western Australia as the mining construction boom comes undone. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/19/MV4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/08/19/MV4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">State trends</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The trend year-on-year increase in sales was particular strong in each of the most populous states, those being New South Wales (+8.1 per cent), Victoria (+3.4 per cent) and Queensland (+6.6 per cent).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>While somewhat immaterial at the national level, the surprise package is Tasmania with a trend +13 per cent year-on-year increase in units sold. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The strength of the data in the three most largest states has more than offset the weakness in South Australia (-4.2 per cent) and the resources-impacted Western Australia (-11 per cent) and Northern Territory (-1.4 per cent).</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/19/MV7.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/08/19/MV7.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
</div>
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Stretched household budgets or not? Pete Wargent

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<div>GUEST OBSERVER</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Australian Finance Group (AFG) released its index for the final quarter of 2016, reporting more than $15 billion in mortgage lodgement volume.</div>
<p><span>The index, which is not seasonally adjusted, rose by 9.9 percent over the year to December.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/12/AFG5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/12/AFG5.jpg" alt=""><br><br><span>Nationally, the average mortgage size of $488,875 was up from $475,083 from the prior year.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/13/AFG2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/13/AFG2.jpg" alt=""><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong></p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">"Tale of two seaboards"</span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Over the year there was strong growth in lodgement volumes in both New South Wales (up 10 per cent) and Queensland (18 per cent), but the real driver of growth was Victoria with a substantial 23 percent rise. </div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/13/AFG3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/13/AFG3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p><br><span>Offsetting this, investors have backed off from Western Australia and the Northern Territory.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/13/AFG4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br><br><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/13/AFG4.jpg" alt=""><br><br></p>
<div>In the December quarter the average mortgage size scaled fresh heights in each of the three most populous states. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/13/AFG1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/13/AFG1.jpg" alt=""><br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Investor rebound</span></strong><br><br><span>Finally, the share of AFG's market relating to investors ticked back up to 34 percent.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/13/AFG6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/13/AFG6.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>While activity in South Australia was flat, the weakness of the WA market in 2016 was evident, with the recent introduction of a new first home owners grant in the state designed to combat this. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Loan to value ratios across the year were fairly consistent at around 69 percent, about 0.7 percent lower than in 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the year non-major lenders have been pinching market share away from the main players, a trend that AFG expects to continue into the new year as consumers increasingly recognise the potential benefits of using a broker.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><em><span>PETE WARGENT </span>is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. </em></div>
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NSW mortgage size passes $600,000 average: Pete Wargent

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<div>The share of interest-only loans fell sharply towards the 30 per cent proposed regulatory cap in the June 2017 quarter, as bank incentives to switch towards principal and interest products had the desired impact. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Treasurer Scott Morrison will argue that the "scalpel" approach to cooling this sector of the market has been successful, forcing Aussies to begin paying back their mortgages sooner. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/30/IO1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/30/IO1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>For ADIs with greater than $1 billion in residential term loans, new loans to investors also dropped back to a 34.5 per cent share of the new lending market, now well down from 42.5 per cent in the June 2015 quarter. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The share of high loan to value ratio (LVR) loans has also diminished considerably over the past 10 quarters, which makes life tough for first homebuyers, but arguably reduces mortgage exposure risk in aggregate.  </div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/30/APRA2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/30/APRA2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<div>Despite these changes in the composition of exposures, lending growth remains strong, with total ADI exposures rising by +7.3 per cent over the financial year to $1.54 trillion. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>That's an increase of +$105 billion over the 2017 financial year, ever-so-slightly less than the +$107 billion increase seen in FY2016. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The growth in ADI exposures to owner-occupiers was particularly strong, rising by +8.1 per cent to beyond $1 trillion for the first time. </div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/30/APRA3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/30/APRA3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Activity in new low-doc loans and other non-standard loans continued to decline, as has consistently been the case now since 2009. </div>
<p> </p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall, there was not much of a slowdown in evidence here, even if the composition of lending has shifted. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Furthermore, non-banks have been growing their mortgage books apace - the dollar value of Pepper's residential loan originations soared by +17 per cent in H1 2017, for example. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>After accounting for these changes it's questionable that there has been any meaningful slowdown at all in the pace of mortgage lending. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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ADI home loan exposure pass $1 trillion: Pete Wargent

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<p>It was interesting - if a little alarming - to hear Shadow Treasurer Bowen this week noting that there was "no evidence" that investors are rushing in to the market in order to beat proposed changes to tax legislation relating to property.</p>
<p>It's unclear if the ALP just doesn't 'do' liaison with the real estate industry or whether this was a natural response to downplay a mildly accusatory question.</p>
<p>A huge number of investors I speak to are unsurprisingly concerned about prospective changes to tax legislation, and as such many are aiming to buy as much property as soon as they can.</p>
<p>This can be a problem with flagging future shifts in tax legislation well in advance, as we have also seen in Victoria over the past fortnight. </p>
<p>Regardless of the political debate, it's on, and regulators may need to step in again later in the year. </p>
<p>Housing finance surges on</p>
<p>The ABS reported the January housing finance figures on Friday morning which showed the value of investor lending tearing 28 per cent higher year-on-year.</p>
<p>So there's the evidence, lest anyone really needed it. </p>
<p>Another surge in investor lending took total housing finance to comfortably its highest ever level both in seasonally adjusted and trend terms in the month January 2017. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/13/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/13/A1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>One point that should be acknowledged is that these are January figures, and some steps have since been taken by lenders to cool the investment lending sector.</p>
<p>On this evidence, it's likely that more tweaks will be needed.</p>
<p>On a national basis, the monthly figures for the homebuyer market were relatively flat. </p>
<p>Loan sizes can sometimes be lower in January, yet even in seasonally adjusted terms the value of owner-occupied housing commitments was down a notch in the month (-0.2 percent), despite an uptick in the number of loans.  </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/13/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/13/A3.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Homebuyers around the traps</p>
<p>The national figures for owner-occupier commitments are being pulled down by Western Australia, where the number of commitments has been in a long downtrend from November 2013 (7,729) all the way through to January 2017 (5,803). </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/13/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/13/A5.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>It's a similar story for the value of owner-occupier commitments in WA, which have dropped from $2.42 billion in 2014 to $1.94 billion. </p>
<p>Finally, the average first homebuyer loan size was generally also a little lower over the Christmas period. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/13/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/13/A2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>I'll take a look on Wednesday next week at where the investors are buying, but I can save you the suspense because the answer is Sydney and Melbourne.  </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/13/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/13/A4.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The wrap</p>
<p>Housing finance continues to scale new monthly peaks, and the figures for investment lending will do little to quell the belief that APRA will be tapping on the shoulders of a few more lenders as this year progresses. </p>
<p>That said, today's figures were for January and the most widely reported figures are seasonally adjusted, so there will be lots of attention directed at the next two months of data. </p>
<p> </p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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Investors rush to beat potential tax changes: Pete Wargent

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<p>It was only a matter of time before some property punters would cash in simply because property data is now pointing to a significant price correction.</p>
<p>The latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) data has inflation adjusted wage growth sitting most uncomfortably around zero which spells disaster for households carrying excessively large mortgages. Time to cool the heels-cash in, and lock oneself into a lease for twenty-four months or so and watch what happens as there are some worrying signs out there, although some areas will see minimal change and others massive.</p>
<p>The RBA also announced this week that it was concerned how the financial system would handle a significant price correction in the apartment investment sector. Between now and June 30 there are a staggering 15,000 apartments settling so we are approximately 90 days away from knowing if the investment apartment sector is about to collapse.</p>
<p>With the clear majority of these sales to Chinese investors we will soon find out if they can raise the funds to settle without the assistance of the major banks who have walked away from overseas investors.</p>
<p>Li Ming, a co-director of Aussiehome, recently announced that “the off-the-plan apartment markets is now the worst I have seen in the last 10 years.” He then went on to say that almost 80 percent of Chinese buyers can’t settle on the Australian apartments they have purchased and now would prefer to walk away. In the clear majority of cases, these properties are now worth considerably less than when they were an artist’s impression on a glossy brochure.</p>
<p>Property is a confidence game so when we start reading negativity we also start seeing an immediate response in consumer sentiment. This would almost certainly explain why the RBA is now sounding clear warnings directed at the investment apartment markets. This usually only happens when their internal research is discovering anomalies in the markets so immediately they start sounding the fog-horns.</p>
<p>I well remember remarking back in December 2008 when Wayne “The World’s Best Treasurer” Swan strangely increased the off-the-plan ratio from 50 percent to 100 percent that this would not have a happy ending. Who knows I may well be wrong although I still stand by my predictions where nearly nine years on we are now starting to see the result.</p>
<p>This also coincides with Sydney house prices presently posting the highest annual growth in 14 years. We all know (well most anyway) that for property markets to change direction you need a trigger. Should Li Ming be correct about the apartment investment market this will have a significant impact on this newly created apartment investment market right across the eastern seaboard.</p>
<p>If this does happen our governments and banks need to play this intelligently by riding the storm out by becoming landlords. In the past, they have panicked (especially the banks) by engaging in massive sell offs which cause more problems. What should be happening now is the intelligent preparation of worst case scenarios where lenders should be looking at first home buyers to create lease and buy back packages.</p>
<p>Having said that the first problem with housing affordability is the rental markets despite governments going down the wrong track of building more homes. If rents are flat and even decreasing as was the case 15 years ago, then the pressure on tenants is removed as it then becomes cheaper to rent over owning. What we forget are the many solid arguments back then that clearly showed renting was a smarter option than buying – how quickly we forget.</p>
<p>Obviously with so many brand-new apartments set to hit the rental markets rents will fall – just imagine what would happen if the NSW government forced the 200,000 plus permanently vacant Sydney apartments onto the market?</p>
<p>The Victorian government has acted on this with the introduction of the Vacant Residential Property Tax (VRPT) which will address the permanently vacant properties across inner and middle suburbs of Melbourne. The VRPT will be levied at 1 percent, multiplied by the capital improved value of the taxable property. A property worth $650,000 would then be charged a VRPT of $6,500 which in my opinion is too low because the clear majority are wealthy which is why they are not interested in renting the property out in the first place.</p>
<p>The VRPT should be between 3 and 5 percent although the Victorian government knows only too well that a 1 percent VRPT won’t have a significant impact on overseas buyers which is why they introduced it.</p>
<p>On the flip side, the NSW government is looking to further increase stamp duty for foreign buyers which would be an absolute disaster – just ask the Canadian government who did precisely this and then managed to collapse their investment markets by upwards of 30 percent.</p>
<p>I don’t worry too much about the property markets, I worry more about how our elected politicians will respond to these challenges. Generation Rent should be watching these markets very closely.</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><em>ROBERT SIMEON is a director of </em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/"><span class="s2"><em>Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</em></span></a><em> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. </em></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><em>He has also been writing real estate blog </em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/"><span class="s2"><em>Virtual Realty News</em></span></a><em> since 2000.</em></span></p>
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robertsimeon-hRNTwJyXkQ

The big property shift is fast heading to a sell recommendation: Robert Simeon

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>I've very much enjoyed reading James Glynn in my Wall Street Journal app this year, as one of the most informed commentators on Aussie monetary policy.</p>
<div>Always straight to the point and almost unerringly accurate. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Yesterday in Glynn's take he argued that there's no point in the Reserve Bank delaying action, calling for another rate cut in July to an official cash rate of 1 per cent, followed by a possible further salvo of cuts towards the end of the year. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-kaxsG_b0V7s/XQnH5T_9v4I/AAAAAAAAwiU/uGam_SV7oQUZZyWYprmIuhBy5RBK4-mOACLcBGAs/s640/JG.jpg" width="640" height="132" data-original-height="153" data-original-width="736"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Today's skilled job advertisements figures did little to dispel the notion, with another decline in May taking the trend year-on-year decline out to 6 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gCDidzrgTm0/XQnH5cjH_UI/AAAAAAAAwig/c2FdekaHDCATavQQd6jYrg8CphWXZmFkwCEwYBhgL/s640/DOE.jpg" width="640" height="366" data-original-height="790" data-original-width="1377"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>There were year-on-year declines across each of the three main states, and in 7 of the 8 major occupational groups. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There's been some growth in white collar and professionals vacancies, but tellingly the construction and trades ads have dropped away sharply. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Thus the strong jobs recovery rather looks set to die on its, erm, feet.<br><br>As the Aussie dollar scrabbles around at decade lows, benchmark iron ore spot prices have ballooned to multi-year highs across all the major grades.<br><br><div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-a6d3QotflxE/XQqd1spJ-vI/AAAAAAAAwjA/jI6_2cVIFakyjy2d2QeQvSTMAJnSekQfwCLcBGAs/s640/IO.jpg" width="640" height="358" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1430"></div>
<br>I wanna see the receipts!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>. </em> </div>
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No reason for the RBA to wait on cutting: Pete Wargent

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<p>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) touches on some interesting points in its latest <em>Financial Stability Review</em>, including the paradox of low interest rates.</p>
<p>Household debt-to-income ratios have been flat for the past eight years, but the RBA quite rightly senses a risk that low rates could see this figure busting out to new highs and looks on cautiously.</p>
<p><img src="/images/2014/10/7/RBA1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The paradox is that low interest rates have made life pretty easy going for existing owners of property on variable rate mortgages, with the interest payments-to-income ratio falling from 13% to just 9%</p>
<p><strong>Mortgage buffers</strong></p>
<p>The RBA notes that aggregate mortgage buffers are at remarkably high levels, the equivalent of "more than two years" of scheduled repayments. A big reason for this, as I've experienced myself, is that banks have frequently left mortgage repayment amounts on auto-pilot despite declining mortgage rates:</p>
<p>"Households' ability to service their debt has been aided by ongoing low interest rates. The proportion of disposable income required to meet interest payments on household debt has stabilised accordingly, at around 9%.</p>
<p>"Households continue to take advantage of lower interest rates to pay down their mortgages more quickly than required. The aggregate mortgage buffer – balances in mortgage offset and redraw facilities – has risen to be around 15% of outstanding balances, which is equivalent to more than two years of scheduled repayments at current interest rates.</p>
<p>"Prepayment rates and the proportion of borrowers ahead of schedule on their mortgage repayments are also high according to liaison with banks. Part of this prepayment behaviour has been due to some banks' systems not automatically changing customer repayment amounts as interest rates have declined, while in many cases households have not actively sought to reduce their repayments.</p>
<p>"This might be a sign that household stress is currently limited. The household saving ratio, although trending down a little lately, remains high at just under 10%. Households' aggregate balance sheet position has continued to improve in recent quarters: real net worth per household is estimated to have increased by 4% over the year to September 2014."</p>
<p><strong>Rental market</strong></p>
<p>With dwelling prices rising we might expect to see rental vacancies increasing and yields declining. Historically speaking, however, Sydney's vacancy rate remains low despite pockets of forthcoming oversupply. RBA again:</p>
<p>"Despite the activity and housing price inflation in the Sydney and Melbourne property markets, rental yields have not declined to a significant extent and vacancy rates in these cities remain fairly low."</p>
<p><img src="/images/2014/10/7/RBA3.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>True, but vacancy rates are elevated and likely to rise in inner city Melbourne apartments as the RBA observes.</p>
<p><strong>Household financial stress?</strong></p>
<p>Generally 90 day+ loan arrears at now at very low levels at only 0.5 percent, but there are some indicators of household financial stress in Victoria. Back to the RBA:</p>
<p>"Aggregate indicators suggest that household financial stress is generally low, despite the increase in the unemployment rate over the past year. The share of banks' housing loans that are non-performing has declined for both owner-occupiers and investors since reaching a peak in the middle of 2011.</p>
<p>"Data on securitised housing loans show that the share that are 90  days or more past due has declined over the year for most states, coinciding with lower interest rates and rising housing prices. In Victoria, however, loan performance has deteriorated slightly."</p>
<p><img src="/images/2014/10/7/RBA2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The RBA notes instances of mortgage stress and arrears in "outer west and north Melbourne".</p>
<p><strong>Interest rate rises?</strong></p>
<p>So it's largely happy days for homeowners at present. But what about interest rate increases?</p>
<p>Previously we have covered off the possibility here that interest rates might yet fall further as the mining construction boom tails off.</p>
<p>So, what could lead to hikes? Mostly we'll be looking at inflation and the jobs market.</p>
<p>The TD-MI inflation gauge printed flat again for the month, leaving this particular measure sliding towards the bottom of the 2-3% range (now at just 2.2%) and suggesting little in the way of inflationary pressures or a pressing need to hike interest rates.</p>
<p>The declining Aussie dollar could well wash through a little more tradables inflation in due course, but sustained inflationary pressure would likely need the labour market to pick up, since there currently appears to be a fair amount of slack therein.</p>
<p><img src="/images/2014/10/7/4br-tradeinf-small.gif" alt=""></p>
<p>Some heartening news on that front today with ANZ job adverts recording its fourth consecutive monthly gain to hit its best reading in two years.</p>
<p>Could this suggest that the labour market is picking up as was suggested here by last month's figures? Maybe! The next round of Labour Force figures on the 9th of this month is very eagerly anticipated for all of the above reasons.</p>
<p>In any case, interest rates will be very much stuck on hold today at 2.50%. It seems likely that prudent households will have at least another year of low rates ahead to keep building up those mortgage buffers.</p>
<p> </p>
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Reserve Bank muses on housing stress

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<p>In the current low interest rate climate, many first home buyers may be confused about the best option for their first home loan.</p>
<p>Choosing your home loan means striking a balance between your varying priorities. Are you after low fees? Or are you more interested in being able to capitalise on interest rate cuts? Maybe you’re happy to pay a bit extra now for protection against future rate hikes.</p>
<p>To help you with the daunting task of choosing your first home loan, <em>Property Observer </em>has four key tips:</p>
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<strong>THINK LONG TERM<br><br></strong>Be prepared for your life circumstances to change over the course of your mortgage. You may be employed full time with a steady income, but there are lots of things that can affect your ability to make repayments further down the line. Babies, break ups and getting the boot at work can all make a serious dent in your financial plans. <br><br>Think realistically about your life five or 10 years down the track, because you are about to make one of the biggest financial commitments of your life.<br><br>
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<strong>FINANCE FIRST<br><br></strong>Before you’ve found your dream home, work on finding your dream mortgage. Speak to a mortgage broker prior to purchasing a home and look into securing a home loan pre-approval – while it isn’t a total guarantee that you will be able to finance your house, it’s as close as you’ll get. <br><br>Getting pre-approval can help real estate agents take you seriously and give you an idea of your budgetary constraints.<br><br>
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<li>
<strong>VARIABLE OR FIXED?<br><br></strong> With interest rates at a record lows, fixed rates have definite benefits. A fixed rate mortgage will lock your interest rate in and protect you from future rates hikes for a set period, usually three years. Fixed rates are also generally at competitive levels at the moment. However, there are many other factors beyond interest rates will determine what the best loan is for you. <br><br>You may benefit from low monthly fees, a flexible loan arrangement or discounts for bundling your accounts with a single lender. Don't be afraid to shop around.<br><br>A good mortgage broker will help you decide what is best for you. Once you’ve decided on a loan, it’s wise to revisit your loan with your broker on a yearly basis to see if it’s still the best arrangement for you.<br><br>
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<strong>KNOW YOURSELF<br><br></strong>Choosing the best home loan is all about full disclosure and being honest with yourself about your finances. Many lenders offer loan repayment calculators that will help you determine how much you can afford to pay each month. <br><br>While frugality generally pays, you may find that you just can't live comfortably without a certain level of extra spending money each month, so leave yourself a little room to move if you can.<br><br> And remember, your financial decisions will determine what loans you have access to, especially now that your credit history includes more detailed information including when you pay your bills. </li>
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<p>Shopping for your first home is an exciting time, and it's hard to reserve quite the same amount of enthusiasm for mortgage shopping. But taking the time to choose the right home loan can save you a lot of time and a lot of money down the track.</p>
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