<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/collingwood-vic-3066">Collingwood</a>’s northern edge continues to sharpen its reputation as one of Melbourne’s most compelling cultural precincts, where established creative institutions, leading hospitality, and independent fashion converge within a tightly held inner-city neighbourhood.</p>

<p>Set within this evolving pocket, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/derby-street-by-milieu-collingwood-4-derby-street-collingwood-vic-3066">Derby Street by Milieu</a> draws on a location that balances proximity to some of the inner north’s most influential destinations with the quieter, tree-lined character that defines the streets edging East Melbourne. Positioned just moments from both Smith and Gertrude Streets, the address sits on the periphery of Collingwood’s cultural core, offering immediate access without the intensity of its busiest frontages.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145576 project_image_fid=355945]</p>

<p>Gertrude Street, in particular, anchors the area’s identity as a destination for Melbourne’s leading food, art and fashion. Within a short walk, venues such as Marion, Cutler &amp; Co, IDES and the Builders Arms Hotel define a tightly curated dining scene with enduring citywide appeal, complemented by a strong fashion and retail presence including Havn, Le Labo and a selection of independent boutiques.</p>

<p>Nearby, institutions such as the Australian Print Workshop and Collingwood Yards sustain a constant rhythm of exhibitions, performances and creative output, embedding art and culture into the everyday fabric of the neighbourhood.</p>

<p>Smith Street, running parallel, extends this offering with a broader mix of hospitality and nightlife, maintaining its status as one of Melbourne’s most active inner-urban strips.</p>

<p>Beyond these high-energy streets, the immediate surrounds shift in tone. Derby Street and its neighbouring blocks are defined by low-rise heritage terraces, mature trees and a settled residential character. Fitzroy Gardens and Carlton Gardens are both within walking distance, alongside the Royal Exhibition Building and Melbourne Museum, bringing together green space and cultural landmarks within minutes of home.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145576 project_image_fid=355985]</p>

<p>Connectivity remains a key advantage. The CBD sits within easy reach, accessible by tram along Smith Street in around 20 minutes, while also remaining close enough to walk or cycle, supported by the inner north’s established bike network.&nbsp;</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/milieu-property">Milieu</a>’s long-standing connection to Collingwood underpins the project’s approach. With a portfolio that includes multiple nearby developments across Bedford, Peel and Napier Streets, the developer brings a sustained understanding of the area’s character and evolution. Derby Street continues this trajectory as a collaboration with award-winning Melbourne-based <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/studio-bright">Studio Bright</a>, marking the practice’s first multi-residential project in the inner north and reflecting a shared focus on design integrity and contextual response.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Balancing connection to the neighbourhood with a sense of seclusion and refuge, Derby Street by Milieu embodies a level of care and craft typically reserved for single residential projects. Comprising 22 residences across six storeys, with two to four-bedroom configurations priced from $1.15 million, the project is currently under construction with completion expected in late 2027.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145576]</p>


Joel Robinson

Derby Street by Milieu, at the top end of Collingwood

<p data-end="308" data-start="101">A rare new apartment development in the Blue Mountains is the latest in a string of State Significant Development Applications submitted through the New South Wales Government's Housing Delivery Authority.</p>

<p data-end="563" data-start="310">A total of 270 apartments are being proposed for the 1.16-hectare site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/blue-mountains-alpine-retreat-142-150-narrow-neck-road-katoomba-nsw-2780">142–150 Narrow Neck Road in Katoomba</a>, a parcel of land adjoining the former Katoomba Golf Course. The site was acquired for $3.85 million in 2021 by private developer VDM Prime.</p>

<p data-end="783" data-start="565">The apartments, comprising a mix of serviced apartments, affordable housing, and traditional build-to-sell product, will be spread across eight low-rise buildings, along with a separate building for a new restaurant, arranged around a green spine that leads to a central park.</p>

<p><img alt="Katoomba" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ee9a2072-f465-44f1-9076-80c9c8ecca02" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-22%20at%209.20.21%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=4bT0vQ7j_syl65wcrJmHGm3m5pTvwrY_" /></p>

<p data-end="980" data-start="785">The Urban Design Report by Atlas Urban says the vision is to create a "contemporary mountain precinct that is responsive to its escarpment landscape, heritage character, and community context."</p>

<p data-end="1226" data-start="982">"The development responds to the current housing supply and affordability challenges identified under the NSW Housing Delivery Authority (HDA), providing a balanced mix of standard, affordable, and short-stay accommodation," the report noted.</p>

<p data-end="1472" data-start="1228">"By introducing a variety of dwelling types and tenures, the proposal supports intergenerational living, local workforce retention, and greater housing choice within an area constrained by topography, heritage, and environmental protections."</p>

<p data-end="1668" data-start="1474">Of the 270 units proposed, 52 will be serviced apartments. The remainder will comprise 54 studios, 121 one-bedroom units, 39 two-bedroom apartments, and four three- to four-bedroom residences.</p>

<p data-end="1668" data-start="1474"><img alt="Katoomba" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="f704508d-1bdf-4170-955d-0256652402a7" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-22%20at%209.56.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=TzarHMO4gTOsblCqsbJQkvMqWj9nu2Au" /></p>

<p data-end="1932" data-start="1670">The Design Report, by VDM Prime and appointed architect Antoniades Architects, noted that the design seeks to "provide a built form outcome that is highly considered, respectful and contextually fitting, whilst contributing positively to an evolving precinct."</p>

<p data-end="2162" data-start="1934">"The site offers three frontages and the opportunity to provide a meaningful interface with the public domain environment. the design has a sympathetic response to streetscape and the green open space that surrounds the site."</p>

<p data-end="2721" data-start="2164">The report states that the buildings are broken up to establish an appropriate bulk and scale, emphasised through height and setback strategies and defined through articulation that supports the transition of precinct granularity. It also notes that a central communal open space is established through the site to enhance the social dynamic and access to amenity, including natural ventilation and light to the apartments. The east and west frontages receive solar access during the morning and afternoon, whilst maximising views to the green open space.</p>

<p data-end="2883" data-start="2723">The site adjoins the recently completed Yarrabee Katoomba development, comprising 24 duplexes that were completed last year and sold through McGrath Projects.</p>

<p data-end="2883" data-start="2723">The relatively new Housing Delivery Authority pathway established by the NSW Government allows developers to submit State Significant Development Applications through a fast-tracked state process, effectively reducing reliance on local council approval pathways and aiming to accelerate housing delivery across New South Wales.</p>


First look: Nearly 300 apartments pitched on former Katoomba golf course site

<p>In Melbourne’s established inner east, the qualities that define a traditional house, width, height, and access to open ground, are increasingly difficult to replicate in new residential developments. Larger landholdings are scarce, and with them, the ability to create apartments that extend beyond compact, internalised layouts.&nbsp;</p>

<p>In <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/kew-vic-3101">Kew</a>, where the residential fabric is shaped by generous setbacks and mature tree canopies, that tension is especially visible.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ricdanic-investments-pty-ltd">Ricdanic</a>&nbsp;is bringing forward a boutique collection of just 13 residences across two buildings at 9–11 Wimba Avenue, Kew. Comprising six homes at No.9 and seven at No.11, the project sits on a quiet, tree-lined street just off Cotham Road.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Each apartment has been planned with a level of independence more commonly associated with standalone dwellings, balancing privacy with the efficiencies of apartment living.</p>

<p>Architect Chris Idle, who has been practising for over two decades, says projects like this don’t come along often.</p>

<p>“There are very few opportunities to do these kinds of developments in leafy, established suburbs,” he explains. “To get this level of amenity, natural light, and architectural freedom in such a setting is extremely rare.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=140755 project_image_fid=366267]</p>

<p>The internal planning begins with width. Living areas extend beyond five metres, allowing furniture, circulation, and glazing to sit comfortably within the same zone without compression. Ceiling heights shift from three metres through to five metres in select areas, changing the sense of scale as you move through the apartment. These proportions are paired with double-glazed windows and fully electric systems, balancing volume with performance, supported by a 7.2 NatHERS energy rating.&nbsp;</p>

<p>From the main living space, the apartments open directly outward. Large sliding doors connect to private gardens averaging 125 square metres, with some residences also incorporating balconies of around 60 square metres. Rather than acting as secondary outdoor zones, these areas sit flush with the internal floor level, extending the usable footprint of the home and allowing for multiple modes of use, whether for quiet daily routines or larger gatherings.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The landscape, led by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/john-patrick-landscape-architects">John Patrick</a>, reinforces this relationship. Across the site, 23 different plant species have been introduced, including a mix of native and established varieties, arranged to maintain privacy while preserving sightlines and light access. Gardens are not treated as decorative buffers but as functional extensions of the apartments, shaped to accommodate movement, seating, and informal use over time.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=140755 project_image_fid=366265]</p>

<p>Architecturally, the project draws from Kew’s historic residential language. Handmade bricks by Krause define the exterior, grounding the buildings within the material palette of the suburb, while interior finishes, stone, timber flooring, and restrained detailing, continue this approach internally. Architect Chris Idle describes the intent as long-term rather than stylistic: “We wanted it to feel timeless.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>This emphasis on durability extends to how the buildings are accessed and secured. Entry is managed through keyless systems, with a double-gated basement incorporating number plate recognition for vehicle access. Each residence is paired with a private lock-up garage accommodating two to three cars, alongside storage, while all entry points are monitored continuously. These measures sit alongside EV readiness and fully electric infrastructure, aligning the project’s operational systems with its long-term design outlook.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The setting remains central to how the development is experienced. Located within walking distance of Kew Junction and close to established schools including Carey Grammar and Xavier College, the address benefits from existing infrastructure while maintaining a residential quietness that is increasingly difficult to find at this scale.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Construction is being delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/sinjen">Sinjen</a>, with a 10-year structural guarantee, with completion targeted for mid-2027.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=140755]</p>


Inside Wimba Ave, Kew’s garden-scale residences designed for space and permanence

<p>High-end Sydney developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/abadeen-group">Abadeen</a> has secured approval for one of its latest Mosman projects, one of the first developments approved by Mosman Council under the NSW Government’s Low and Mid-Rise Housing Policy.</p>

<p>The approval represents an important step in delivering well-considered housing next to established village locations on Sydney’s Lower North Shore, in line with the intent of the Low and Mid-Rise zoning framework.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
There are currently 13 other sites lodged within Mosman Council under the policy, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/27-29-heydon-street-mosman-nsw-2088">Heydon Street</a> among the first to receive development consent.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
Abadeen Founder and Executive Chairman Justin Brown said the project reflects a considered and appropriate response to its planning context.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
“This approval demonstrates how carefully considered, design-led development can align with the objectives of the Low and Mid-Rise Housing Policy," Brown said.</p>

<p>"The scheme has been designed to respond sensitively to its village setting, with a built form, scale and level of amenity appropriate to its local context. The determination reflects a balanced and considered planning outcome, with Council recognising the capacity for this site to accommodate additional housing within a well-located and established precinct.”</p>

<p><img alt="Abadeen secures first approval under low and mid-rise housing policy for Heydon Street, Mosman" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="92811ce3-02e8-44fc-996e-c61ae039bd3e" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Heydon%20Street%20Aerial.jpg?VersionId=ZHJVuWQT64QcdrFJx963pFWFzTX7lI2I" /></p>

<p>The Heydon Street approval followed extensive consultation with Mosman Council, with Abadeen working closely with Council throughout the assessment process.</p>

<p>The approved scheme comprises 27 residences, with only four per floor, creating a low-density living environment. The building will include four half-floor penthouses designed to capture views across Middle Harbour, Sydney Harbour and the surrounding district.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The project is expected to appeal to downsizers and owner-occupiers seeking house-like proportions, privacy and local convenience. There will be north-facing Middle Harbour views from the second level upward. It is also just a flat 100-metre walk to Bridgepoint Shopping Centre, which will appeal to owner-occupiers and in particular downsizers.</p>

<p>Two-bedroom residences are expected to be priced from $1.99 million when sales launch later this year.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
Joe Tack, CEO at Abadeen, said the outcome reflects both the quality of the site and the broader need for well-located housing.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
“This is a highly considered site within a highly established local setting, offering elevated views and strong connectivity. The project has been designed to respond to that context, delivering a scale and quality of housing aligned with both the planning framework and evolving market demand.”<br />
&nbsp;<br />
“This approval is particularly significant in the context of Mosman, where new housing supply has historically been limited. While it represents the first approval of this scale in Mosman to be achieved in over 50 years, it is importantly located within a well-established residential location, in close proximity to the established commercial amenity of Spit Road and Mosman Village. It reflects strong confidence in Abadeen’s approach to design, delivery and community integration, while contributing to the delivery of much-needed housing in a highly constrained market.”</p>

<p>Abadeen has an established track record across Sydney’s Lower North Shore, with recent completions including KOYO in Crows Nest and ENSO in Neutral Bay.</p>

<p>In Mosman, Abadeen recently completed The Hampden, with Mosman Residences on the corner of Spit Road and Clifford Street scheduled for completion later this year. Construction has also commenced at Burran Residences, comprising three full-floor ultra-premium homes positioned just 50 metres from Balmoral Beach, with residences expected to achieve prices in excess of $20 million. Two further projects are also progressing through planning within the local government area.</p>


Abadeen secures first approval under low and mid-rise housing policy for Heydon Street, Mosman apartment development

<p data-end="294" data-start="93">Apartment developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/martello">Martello™</a> is one of the latest entrants to the Gold Coast development market, with its debut project set to be one of the most boutique offerings on Chevron Island in recent years.</p>

<p data-end="461" data-start="296">Martello has unveiled <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/aere-chevron-island-18-20-mawarra-street-chevron-island-qld-4217">Aere Chevron Island</a>, a collection of 33 large-scale two-, three-, and four-bedroom apartments across an 18-storey building on Mawarra Street.</p>

<p data-end="461" data-start="296">[smartcode_project:default project_id=143932 project_image_fid=367517]</p>

<p data-end="695" data-start="463">The developer has placed a strong emphasis on wellness, briefing architecture firm Raunik Design to embed this philosophy into the project. It is a direction <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/martello">Martello™</a> plans to carry through its future developments along the coast.</p>

<p data-end="1094" data-start="697"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/martello">Martello™</a> has positioned Aere as a continuation of its human-centric development approach, with a focus extending beyond amenity to the fundamentals of layout, natural light, and spatial planning. Promax Construction has already been appointed to deliver the project, with construction expected to commence in the coming months as part of the group’s broader expansion into South East Queensland.</p>

<p data-end="1443" data-start="1096">Rising above the low-rise fabric of Chevron Island, Aere’s design emphasises generous internal proportions and uninterrupted outlooks, with residences oriented to capture coastal, skyline, and waterway views. Interiors prioritise open-plan living, with large-format glazing and carefully considered transitions between indoor and outdoor spaces.</p>

<p data-end="1443" data-start="1096">[smartcode_project:default project_id=143932 project_image_fid=367508]</p>

<p data-end="1788" data-start="1445">The upper levels are dedicated to larger-format homes, including four-bedroom residences designed as half-floor offerings. These layouts prioritise separation between living and sleeping zones, along with increased privacy and storage, features more commonly associated with detached housing than traditional apartment product.</p>

<p data-end="2059" data-start="1790">Aere’s private resident amenity spaces centre on wellness. A rooftop level will incorporate a heated swimming pool, sauna and spa, while the rest of the wellness spaces throughout the building include a&nbsp;residents’ lounge, dining areas and a gym.</p>

<p data-end="2335" data-start="2061">The inclusion of both social and quieter retreat spaces reflects a broader shift in higher-end apartment design on the Gold Coast, where developers are increasingly responding to owner-occupier demand for buildings that support long-term living rather than short-stay use.</p>

<p data-end="2335" data-start="2061">[smartcode_project:default project_id=143932 project_image_fid=367814]</p>

<p data-end="2560" data-start="2337">Aere is positioned within walking distance of Chevron Island’s village centre along Thomas Drive, as well as the HOTA cultural precinct via the Green Bridge, connecting residents to parklands, galleries, and event spaces.</p>

<p data-end="2762" data-start="2562">For <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/martello">Martello™</a>, Aere represents the first in a series of planned Gold Coast developments, with the group also exploring opportunities in other coastal precincts, including Kirra and Palm Beach.</p>

<p data-end="3111" data-start="2764">The move north comes as sustained population growth and infrastructure investment continue to reshape South East Queensland, with developers increasingly targeting boutique, design-led projects in established lifestyle pockets. Aera’s relatively small scale and emphasis on spatial quality position it within this emerging segment of the market.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=143932]</p>


Martello™ enters Gold Coast market with wellness-led Chevron Island development Aere

Mortgages

<html><body><div class="page" title="Page 5">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p>The vast majority of properties sold nationwide to September 2015 did so at a profit, with 91.6% of sales over the quarter selling at a profit, according to the latest CoreLogic RP Data Pain &amp; Gain report.</p>
<p>The report found the total value of this profit was recorded at $17.3 billion, with the average gross profit $265,605. </p>
<p>According to the report some<span> 8.4% of all homes resold recorded a gross loss when compared to their previous purchase price; the lowest proportion of loss-making resales since December 2014.</span></p>
<p><span>"This figure was lower than the 9.2% over the June 2015 quarter and also lower than the 8.9% recorded a year ago. Across those dwellings which resold at a loss over the quarter, the total value of loss was $376.2 million with an average loss of $63,221," it noted.</span></p>
<p>"Nationally there was $376.2 million in realised losses over the quarter at an average of $63,221 and $17.3 billion in realised profit at an average of $265,605.</p>
<div class="page" title="Page 4">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p>"Across the capital cities, there were $193.5 million in losses with an average of $71,996 per loss-making resale compared to $14.4 billion in profit at an average of $324,887. The combined regional areas recorded $182.7 million in losses at an average of $55,996 compared to $2.9 billion in profit at an average of $139,798. The average losses were greater in the capital cities, however they also generally experienced much greater profits, more than double those in regional areas."</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<p><span> </span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/29/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-29%20at%2010.48.24%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/01/29/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-29%20at%2010.48.24%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p><span>The proportion of loss making resales is lower than the financial crisis peak nationwide with the exception of Darwin to September 2015, according to the latest CoreLogic RP Data Pain &amp; Gain report.</span></p>
<p><span>The report found </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">loss-making resales lower in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Hobart, higher in Perth and Darwin and flat in Adelaide and Canberra and said values growing sharply in Sydney and Melbourne over the year with moderate value growth in Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra and values falling in Perth and Darwin. </span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/29/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-29%20at%2011.03.34%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/01/29/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-29%20at%2011.03.34%20AM.png" alt=""></span></p>
</div>
</div>
</div></body></html>

tlawless-5VLUrbAk9s

Proportion of loss-making resales lower than the financial crisis peak: Tim Lawless CoreLogic RP Data Pain & Gain national

<html><body>
<div>Markets played around with the idea of the easing cycle being over for a while.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Not any more, though, as the yield curve inverts once again.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Still only a low probability of a cut in September. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, another rate cut is fully priced in for December, with the implied yield on August 2016 contracts sagging as low as 1.61%.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/26/ASX.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/08/26/ASX.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
<p><span> </span></p>
</body></html>

pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Interest rates to fall: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div>Another data series which doesn't really fit the narrative of tight or stretched household budgets, as trend new car sales moved to their highest ever level in July 2015. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This follows on from recently compiled Reserve Bank data which shows that mortgage redraw buffers and offset account balances are also at their highest ever level as household enjoy low interest rates and cheaper repayments.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Of course, it often doesn't feel this way at the individual household level - interviews with the world's wealthiest people have shown that financial stress never entirely goes away whatever the true state of one's personal finances.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>The Reserve Bank itself has mused<span>:</span></span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><em>"The continued concern about living cost pressures might arise because the standard of living that can be sustainably afforded by households’ incomes remains lower than many would like."</em></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Certainly although wages growth is soft at +2.3 per cent, this has to date at least remained well in excess of the increase in the cost of living for employee households.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Record new motor sales </span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>In any event it was another monster month for new motor vehicle sales at a seasonaly adjusted 96,388 which saw trend sales reach an all-time record high in July 2015, having increased by 3.7 per cent over the past year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The result was all the remarkable given the weak data evident in the resources states, a slowing rate of population growth, as well as the fact that the Aussie dollar has depreciated sharply in recent times. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/19/MV1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/08/19/MV1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Looking at the "original" data on a rolling annual basis we can see that more than 1.13 million new vehicle sales have been recorded over the past year, while the 588,619 units sold over the past six months is a record for any half year period in Australia's history.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/19/MV6.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/08/19/MV6.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>It was another prodigious month for Sports Utitlity (SUV) sales at more than 34,000 seasonally adjusted from fewer than 30,000 one year ago (a +14 per cent year-on-yearincrease), the annualised number of SUV sales climbing inexorably to beyond 380,000.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/19/MV3.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/08/19/MV3.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">State versus state</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>New South Wales has been recording a number of king-sized seasonally adjusted results in recent months, firing total new motor vehicle sales to their highest ever level in the Premier State. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>On a rolling annual basis new motor vehicle sales are rising in Queensland too, but are now looking somewhat peaky in Victoria after a fine run. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sales have declined moderately in South Australia over the past year, and fairly sharply in Western Australia as the mining construction boom comes undone. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/19/MV4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/08/19/MV4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">State trends</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The trend year-on-year increase in sales was particular strong in each of the most populous states, those being New South Wales (+8.1 per cent), Victoria (+3.4 per cent) and Queensland (+6.6 per cent).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>While somewhat immaterial at the national level, the surprise package is Tasmania with a trend +13 per cent year-on-year increase in units sold. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The strength of the data in the three most largest states has more than offset the weakness in South Australia (-4.2 per cent) and the resources-impacted Western Australia (-11 per cent) and Northern Territory (-1.4 per cent).</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/19/MV7.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/08/19/MV7.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
</div>
</body></html>

Stretched household budgets or not? Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div>GUEST OBSERVER</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Australian Finance Group (AFG) released its index for the final quarter of 2016, reporting more than $15 billion in mortgage lodgement volume.</div>
<p><span>The index, which is not seasonally adjusted, rose by 9.9 percent over the year to December.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/12/AFG5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/12/AFG5.jpg" alt=""><br><br><span>Nationally, the average mortgage size of $488,875 was up from $475,083 from the prior year.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/13/AFG2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/13/AFG2.jpg" alt=""><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong></p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">"Tale of two seaboards"</span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Over the year there was strong growth in lodgement volumes in both New South Wales (up 10 per cent) and Queensland (18 per cent), but the real driver of growth was Victoria with a substantial 23 percent rise. </div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/13/AFG3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/13/AFG3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p><br><span>Offsetting this, investors have backed off from Western Australia and the Northern Territory.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/13/AFG4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br><br><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/13/AFG4.jpg" alt=""><br><br></p>
<div>In the December quarter the average mortgage size scaled fresh heights in each of the three most populous states. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/13/AFG1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/13/AFG1.jpg" alt=""><br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Investor rebound</span></strong><br><br><span>Finally, the share of AFG's market relating to investors ticked back up to 34 percent.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/13/AFG6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/13/AFG6.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>While activity in South Australia was flat, the weakness of the WA market in 2016 was evident, with the recent introduction of a new first home owners grant in the state designed to combat this. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Loan to value ratios across the year were fairly consistent at around 69 percent, about 0.7 percent lower than in 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the year non-major lenders have been pinching market share away from the main players, a trend that AFG expects to continue into the new year as consumers increasingly recognise the potential benefits of using a broker.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><em><span>PETE WARGENT </span>is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. </em></div>
</body></html>

NSW mortgage size passes $600,000 average: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div>The share of interest-only loans fell sharply towards the 30 per cent proposed regulatory cap in the June 2017 quarter, as bank incentives to switch towards principal and interest products had the desired impact. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Treasurer Scott Morrison will argue that the "scalpel" approach to cooling this sector of the market has been successful, forcing Aussies to begin paying back their mortgages sooner. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/30/IO1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/30/IO1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>For ADIs with greater than $1 billion in residential term loans, new loans to investors also dropped back to a 34.5 per cent share of the new lending market, now well down from 42.5 per cent in the June 2015 quarter. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The share of high loan to value ratio (LVR) loans has also diminished considerably over the past 10 quarters, which makes life tough for first homebuyers, but arguably reduces mortgage exposure risk in aggregate.  </div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/30/APRA2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/30/APRA2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<div>Despite these changes in the composition of exposures, lending growth remains strong, with total ADI exposures rising by +7.3 per cent over the financial year to $1.54 trillion. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>That's an increase of +$105 billion over the 2017 financial year, ever-so-slightly less than the +$107 billion increase seen in FY2016. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The growth in ADI exposures to owner-occupiers was particularly strong, rising by +8.1 per cent to beyond $1 trillion for the first time. </div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/30/APRA3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/30/APRA3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Activity in new low-doc loans and other non-standard loans continued to decline, as has consistently been the case now since 2009. </div>
<p> </p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall, there was not much of a slowdown in evidence here, even if the composition of lending has shifted. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Furthermore, non-banks have been growing their mortgage books apace - the dollar value of Pepper's residential loan originations soared by +17 per cent in H1 2017, for example. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>After accounting for these changes it's questionable that there has been any meaningful slowdown at all in the pace of mortgage lending. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
</div>
</body></html>

ADI home loan exposure pass $1 trillion: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p>It was interesting - if a little alarming - to hear Shadow Treasurer Bowen this week noting that there was "no evidence" that investors are rushing in to the market in order to beat proposed changes to tax legislation relating to property.</p>
<p>It's unclear if the ALP just doesn't 'do' liaison with the real estate industry or whether this was a natural response to downplay a mildly accusatory question.</p>
<p>A huge number of investors I speak to are unsurprisingly concerned about prospective changes to tax legislation, and as such many are aiming to buy as much property as soon as they can.</p>
<p>This can be a problem with flagging future shifts in tax legislation well in advance, as we have also seen in Victoria over the past fortnight. </p>
<p>Regardless of the political debate, it's on, and regulators may need to step in again later in the year. </p>
<p>Housing finance surges on</p>
<p>The ABS reported the January housing finance figures on Friday morning which showed the value of investor lending tearing 28 per cent higher year-on-year.</p>
<p>So there's the evidence, lest anyone really needed it. </p>
<p>Another surge in investor lending took total housing finance to comfortably its highest ever level both in seasonally adjusted and trend terms in the month January 2017. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/13/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/13/A1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>One point that should be acknowledged is that these are January figures, and some steps have since been taken by lenders to cool the investment lending sector.</p>
<p>On this evidence, it's likely that more tweaks will be needed.</p>
<p>On a national basis, the monthly figures for the homebuyer market were relatively flat. </p>
<p>Loan sizes can sometimes be lower in January, yet even in seasonally adjusted terms the value of owner-occupied housing commitments was down a notch in the month (-0.2 percent), despite an uptick in the number of loans.  </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/13/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/13/A3.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Homebuyers around the traps</p>
<p>The national figures for owner-occupier commitments are being pulled down by Western Australia, where the number of commitments has been in a long downtrend from November 2013 (7,729) all the way through to January 2017 (5,803). </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/13/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/13/A5.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>It's a similar story for the value of owner-occupier commitments in WA, which have dropped from $2.42 billion in 2014 to $1.94 billion. </p>
<p>Finally, the average first homebuyer loan size was generally also a little lower over the Christmas period. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/13/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/13/A2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>I'll take a look on Wednesday next week at where the investors are buying, but I can save you the suspense because the answer is Sydney and Melbourne.  </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/13/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/13/A4.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The wrap</p>
<p>Housing finance continues to scale new monthly peaks, and the figures for investment lending will do little to quell the belief that APRA will be tapping on the shoulders of a few more lenders as this year progresses. </p>
<p>That said, today's figures were for January and the most widely reported figures are seasonally adjusted, so there will be lots of attention directed at the next two months of data. </p>
<p> </p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
</body></html>

Investors rush to beat potential tax changes: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p>It was only a matter of time before some property punters would cash in simply because property data is now pointing to a significant price correction.</p>
<p>The latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) data has inflation adjusted wage growth sitting most uncomfortably around zero which spells disaster for households carrying excessively large mortgages. Time to cool the heels-cash in, and lock oneself into a lease for twenty-four months or so and watch what happens as there are some worrying signs out there, although some areas will see minimal change and others massive.</p>
<p>The RBA also announced this week that it was concerned how the financial system would handle a significant price correction in the apartment investment sector. Between now and June 30 there are a staggering 15,000 apartments settling so we are approximately 90 days away from knowing if the investment apartment sector is about to collapse.</p>
<p>With the clear majority of these sales to Chinese investors we will soon find out if they can raise the funds to settle without the assistance of the major banks who have walked away from overseas investors.</p>
<p>Li Ming, a co-director of Aussiehome, recently announced that “the off-the-plan apartment markets is now the worst I have seen in the last 10 years.” He then went on to say that almost 80 percent of Chinese buyers can’t settle on the Australian apartments they have purchased and now would prefer to walk away. In the clear majority of cases, these properties are now worth considerably less than when they were an artist’s impression on a glossy brochure.</p>
<p>Property is a confidence game so when we start reading negativity we also start seeing an immediate response in consumer sentiment. This would almost certainly explain why the RBA is now sounding clear warnings directed at the investment apartment markets. This usually only happens when their internal research is discovering anomalies in the markets so immediately they start sounding the fog-horns.</p>
<p>I well remember remarking back in December 2008 when Wayne “The World’s Best Treasurer” Swan strangely increased the off-the-plan ratio from 50 percent to 100 percent that this would not have a happy ending. Who knows I may well be wrong although I still stand by my predictions where nearly nine years on we are now starting to see the result.</p>
<p>This also coincides with Sydney house prices presently posting the highest annual growth in 14 years. We all know (well most anyway) that for property markets to change direction you need a trigger. Should Li Ming be correct about the apartment investment market this will have a significant impact on this newly created apartment investment market right across the eastern seaboard.</p>
<p>If this does happen our governments and banks need to play this intelligently by riding the storm out by becoming landlords. In the past, they have panicked (especially the banks) by engaging in massive sell offs which cause more problems. What should be happening now is the intelligent preparation of worst case scenarios where lenders should be looking at first home buyers to create lease and buy back packages.</p>
<p>Having said that the first problem with housing affordability is the rental markets despite governments going down the wrong track of building more homes. If rents are flat and even decreasing as was the case 15 years ago, then the pressure on tenants is removed as it then becomes cheaper to rent over owning. What we forget are the many solid arguments back then that clearly showed renting was a smarter option than buying – how quickly we forget.</p>
<p>Obviously with so many brand-new apartments set to hit the rental markets rents will fall – just imagine what would happen if the NSW government forced the 200,000 plus permanently vacant Sydney apartments onto the market?</p>
<p>The Victorian government has acted on this with the introduction of the Vacant Residential Property Tax (VRPT) which will address the permanently vacant properties across inner and middle suburbs of Melbourne. The VRPT will be levied at 1 percent, multiplied by the capital improved value of the taxable property. A property worth $650,000 would then be charged a VRPT of $6,500 which in my opinion is too low because the clear majority are wealthy which is why they are not interested in renting the property out in the first place.</p>
<p>The VRPT should be between 3 and 5 percent although the Victorian government knows only too well that a 1 percent VRPT won’t have a significant impact on overseas buyers which is why they introduced it.</p>
<p>On the flip side, the NSW government is looking to further increase stamp duty for foreign buyers which would be an absolute disaster – just ask the Canadian government who did precisely this and then managed to collapse their investment markets by upwards of 30 percent.</p>
<p>I don’t worry too much about the property markets, I worry more about how our elected politicians will respond to these challenges. Generation Rent should be watching these markets very closely.</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><em>ROBERT SIMEON is a director of </em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/"><span class="s2"><em>Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</em></span></a><em> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. </em></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><em>He has also been writing real estate blog </em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/"><span class="s2"><em>Virtual Realty News</em></span></a><em> since 2000.</em></span></p>
</body></html>

robertsimeon-hRNTwJyXkQ

The big property shift is fast heading to a sell recommendation: Robert Simeon

<html><body>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>I've very much enjoyed reading James Glynn in my Wall Street Journal app this year, as one of the most informed commentators on Aussie monetary policy.</p>
<div>Always straight to the point and almost unerringly accurate. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Yesterday in Glynn's take he argued that there's no point in the Reserve Bank delaying action, calling for another rate cut in July to an official cash rate of 1 per cent, followed by a possible further salvo of cuts towards the end of the year. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-kaxsG_b0V7s/XQnH5T_9v4I/AAAAAAAAwiU/uGam_SV7oQUZZyWYprmIuhBy5RBK4-mOACLcBGAs/s640/JG.jpg" width="640" height="132" data-original-height="153" data-original-width="736"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Today's skilled job advertisements figures did little to dispel the notion, with another decline in May taking the trend year-on-year decline out to 6 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gCDidzrgTm0/XQnH5cjH_UI/AAAAAAAAwig/c2FdekaHDCATavQQd6jYrg8CphWXZmFkwCEwYBhgL/s640/DOE.jpg" width="640" height="366" data-original-height="790" data-original-width="1377"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>There were year-on-year declines across each of the three main states, and in 7 of the 8 major occupational groups. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There's been some growth in white collar and professionals vacancies, but tellingly the construction and trades ads have dropped away sharply. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Thus the strong jobs recovery rather looks set to die on its, erm, feet.<br><br>As the Aussie dollar scrabbles around at decade lows, benchmark iron ore spot prices have ballooned to multi-year highs across all the major grades.<br><br><div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-a6d3QotflxE/XQqd1spJ-vI/AAAAAAAAwjA/jI6_2cVIFakyjy2d2QeQvSTMAJnSekQfwCLcBGAs/s640/IO.jpg" width="640" height="358" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1430"></div>
<br>I wanna see the receipts!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>. </em> </div>
</body></html>

No reason for the RBA to wait on cutting: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) touches on some interesting points in its latest <em>Financial Stability Review</em>, including the paradox of low interest rates.</p>
<p>Household debt-to-income ratios have been flat for the past eight years, but the RBA quite rightly senses a risk that low rates could see this figure busting out to new highs and looks on cautiously.</p>
<p><img src="/images/2014/10/7/RBA1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The paradox is that low interest rates have made life pretty easy going for existing owners of property on variable rate mortgages, with the interest payments-to-income ratio falling from 13% to just 9%</p>
<p><strong>Mortgage buffers</strong></p>
<p>The RBA notes that aggregate mortgage buffers are at remarkably high levels, the equivalent of "more than two years" of scheduled repayments. A big reason for this, as I've experienced myself, is that banks have frequently left mortgage repayment amounts on auto-pilot despite declining mortgage rates:</p>
<p>"Households' ability to service their debt has been aided by ongoing low interest rates. The proportion of disposable income required to meet interest payments on household debt has stabilised accordingly, at around 9%.</p>
<p>"Households continue to take advantage of lower interest rates to pay down their mortgages more quickly than required. The aggregate mortgage buffer – balances in mortgage offset and redraw facilities – has risen to be around 15% of outstanding balances, which is equivalent to more than two years of scheduled repayments at current interest rates.</p>
<p>"Prepayment rates and the proportion of borrowers ahead of schedule on their mortgage repayments are also high according to liaison with banks. Part of this prepayment behaviour has been due to some banks' systems not automatically changing customer repayment amounts as interest rates have declined, while in many cases households have not actively sought to reduce their repayments.</p>
<p>"This might be a sign that household stress is currently limited. The household saving ratio, although trending down a little lately, remains high at just under 10%. Households' aggregate balance sheet position has continued to improve in recent quarters: real net worth per household is estimated to have increased by 4% over the year to September 2014."</p>
<p><strong>Rental market</strong></p>
<p>With dwelling prices rising we might expect to see rental vacancies increasing and yields declining. Historically speaking, however, Sydney's vacancy rate remains low despite pockets of forthcoming oversupply. RBA again:</p>
<p>"Despite the activity and housing price inflation in the Sydney and Melbourne property markets, rental yields have not declined to a significant extent and vacancy rates in these cities remain fairly low."</p>
<p><img src="/images/2014/10/7/RBA3.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>True, but vacancy rates are elevated and likely to rise in inner city Melbourne apartments as the RBA observes.</p>
<p><strong>Household financial stress?</strong></p>
<p>Generally 90 day+ loan arrears at now at very low levels at only 0.5 percent, but there are some indicators of household financial stress in Victoria. Back to the RBA:</p>
<p>"Aggregate indicators suggest that household financial stress is generally low, despite the increase in the unemployment rate over the past year. The share of banks' housing loans that are non-performing has declined for both owner-occupiers and investors since reaching a peak in the middle of 2011.</p>
<p>"Data on securitised housing loans show that the share that are 90  days or more past due has declined over the year for most states, coinciding with lower interest rates and rising housing prices. In Victoria, however, loan performance has deteriorated slightly."</p>
<p><img src="/images/2014/10/7/RBA2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The RBA notes instances of mortgage stress and arrears in "outer west and north Melbourne".</p>
<p><strong>Interest rate rises?</strong></p>
<p>So it's largely happy days for homeowners at present. But what about interest rate increases?</p>
<p>Previously we have covered off the possibility here that interest rates might yet fall further as the mining construction boom tails off.</p>
<p>So, what could lead to hikes? Mostly we'll be looking at inflation and the jobs market.</p>
<p>The TD-MI inflation gauge printed flat again for the month, leaving this particular measure sliding towards the bottom of the 2-3% range (now at just 2.2%) and suggesting little in the way of inflationary pressures or a pressing need to hike interest rates.</p>
<p>The declining Aussie dollar could well wash through a little more tradables inflation in due course, but sustained inflationary pressure would likely need the labour market to pick up, since there currently appears to be a fair amount of slack therein.</p>
<p><img src="/images/2014/10/7/4br-tradeinf-small.gif" alt=""></p>
<p>Some heartening news on that front today with ANZ job adverts recording its fourth consecutive monthly gain to hit its best reading in two years.</p>
<p>Could this suggest that the labour market is picking up as was suggested here by last month's figures? Maybe! The next round of Labour Force figures on the 9th of this month is very eagerly anticipated for all of the above reasons.</p>
<p>In any case, interest rates will be very much stuck on hold today at 2.50%. It seems likely that prudent households will have at least another year of low rates ahead to keep building up those mortgage buffers.</p>
<p> </p>
</body></html>

Reserve Bank muses on housing stress

<html><body>
<p>In the current low interest rate climate, many first home buyers may be confused about the best option for their first home loan.</p>
<p>Choosing your home loan means striking a balance between your varying priorities. Are you after low fees? Or are you more interested in being able to capitalise on interest rate cuts? Maybe you’re happy to pay a bit extra now for protection against future rate hikes.</p>
<p>To help you with the daunting task of choosing your first home loan, <em>Property Observer </em>has four key tips:</p>
<ol>
<li>
<strong>THINK LONG TERM<br><br></strong>Be prepared for your life circumstances to change over the course of your mortgage. You may be employed full time with a steady income, but there are lots of things that can affect your ability to make repayments further down the line. Babies, break ups and getting the boot at work can all make a serious dent in your financial plans. <br><br>Think realistically about your life five or 10 years down the track, because you are about to make one of the biggest financial commitments of your life.<br><br>
</li>
<li>
<strong>FINANCE FIRST<br><br></strong>Before you’ve found your dream home, work on finding your dream mortgage. Speak to a mortgage broker prior to purchasing a home and look into securing a home loan pre-approval – while it isn’t a total guarantee that you will be able to finance your house, it’s as close as you’ll get. <br><br>Getting pre-approval can help real estate agents take you seriously and give you an idea of your budgetary constraints.<br><br>
</li>
<li>
<strong>VARIABLE OR FIXED?<br><br></strong> With interest rates at a record lows, fixed rates have definite benefits. A fixed rate mortgage will lock your interest rate in and protect you from future rates hikes for a set period, usually three years. Fixed rates are also generally at competitive levels at the moment. However, there are many other factors beyond interest rates will determine what the best loan is for you. <br><br>You may benefit from low monthly fees, a flexible loan arrangement or discounts for bundling your accounts with a single lender. Don't be afraid to shop around.<br><br>A good mortgage broker will help you decide what is best for you. Once you’ve decided on a loan, it’s wise to revisit your loan with your broker on a yearly basis to see if it’s still the best arrangement for you.<br><br>
</li>
<li>
<strong>KNOW YOURSELF<br><br></strong>Choosing the best home loan is all about full disclosure and being honest with yourself about your finances. Many lenders offer loan repayment calculators that will help you determine how much you can afford to pay each month. <br><br>While frugality generally pays, you may find that you just can't live comfortably without a certain level of extra spending money each month, so leave yourself a little room to move if you can.<br><br> And remember, your financial decisions will determine what loans you have access to, especially now that your credit history includes more detailed information including when you pay your bills. </li>
</ol>
<p>Shopping for your first home is an exciting time, and it's hard to reserve quite the same amount of enthusiasm for mortgage shopping. But taking the time to choose the right home loan can save you a lot of time and a lot of money down the track.</p>
</body></html>

Mortgages

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Mortgages

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News