Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Melbourne Rental Market

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EXPERT INSIGHT

One of the most prominent trends in Australian housing markets over the past 12 months has been the deterioration of rents in inner city apartment markets across Sydney and Melbourne. At the greater capital city level, rent values have fallen -4.9% across Sydney units since March last year, while Melbourne unit rents have fallen -8.2%.

Much of the drag on unit rents in Sydney and Melbourne have come from inner city regions. CoreLogic estimates suggest the SA4 ‘City and Inner South’ market of Sydney accounts for 18.6% of investment units across the Greater Sydney area. The ‘Melbourne – Inner’ region comprises an estimated 45.9% of investment unit stock in the greater capital city.

In the 12 months to March, which virtually captures 12 months since COVID restrictions were implemented nationally, the City and Inner South of Sydney has seen a -14.5% decline in median asking rents from $620 per week, to $530. Median asking rents across the Melbourne – Inner region sank -18.9% over the year, from $475 per week to $385. For both cities, these inner city SA4 markets have seen the lowest rate of change in rents over the year.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=3490]

Previous CoreLogic research has highlighted that these markets were disproportionately impacted by the closure of international borders, where most overseas arrivals to Australia are initially renters. In the year of measurement before COVID-19, ABS data suggests the City and Inner South and Melbourne – Inner markets alone accounted for 11.2% of net overseas arrivals to Australia. Hence, the halting of overseas migration has had a disproportionate impact on rental markets in these regions.

While these markets are far from recovery, there are signs that conditions may be stabilising, particularly across Sydney. Median asking rents across units in the City and Inner South of Sydney were -14.5% lower over the year to March, but they have risen 6.0% from a recent low of $500 per week in December. Melbourne – Inner median asking rents did slip another -3.8% through the March quarter, but listings stock appears to have been moderating since early February.

Total unit rental stock on the market across inner Sydney and Melbourne is falling. In the 28 days ending April 11th, the amount of listed rentals declined -9.4% across inner Melbourne, and -15.5% across inner Sydney.

For Melbourne however, available unit rentals remain 121.1% higher compared with the 28 day period to March 15 2020, when Australia recorded its 100th case of COVID-19. Sydney unit rental listings have now fallen below pre-COVID levels by -4.5%, highlighting a much faster recovery than across Melbourne.

The elevated rent listings volume through the second half of 2020 across inner Melbourne also shows how an extended lockdown and social distancing restrictions across the city had contributed to a deterioration in rents.

There are several factors which might explain the curious stabilisation of inner city unit markets;

<ul>
<li>Economic activity in CBDs is recovering, but gradually. Easing of COVID-19 restrictions has seen a recovery trend across recreation and hospitality businesses, reflected in very strong gains in sentiment through the month of March. Higher employment levels in hospitality, tourism and the arts are particularly important for demand in inner city Sydney and Melbourne rental markets, because residents in these markets had a relatively high exposure to these industries pre-COVID.</li>
	<li>Pedestrian foot traffic data from the City of Melbourne suggests visitation to the CBD has improved on 2020, but is still only at 50% of pre-COVID levels.</li>
	<li>It is worth noting that this progress of economic activity in the CBDs may be hampered by the end of JobKeeper. This is particularly the case for Melbourne, where around 300,000 people are recipients of the wage subsidy (though a smaller portion of these JobKeeper recipients would currently have no working hours).</li>
	<li>Interstate travel may be tightening rental market conditions. The initial onset of COVID-19 had anecdotally seen short term rentals, namely Airbnb accommodation, put onto the long term rental market. While short term accommodation volumes may still be affected by a lack of international tourism, there is likely higher demand amid eased restrictions, open domestic borders and domestic tourism. Indeed, AirDNA data showed Melbourne short term accommodation volumes rise over the first quarter of Mach 2021.</li>
	<li>Investors may be selling up. The coming months may see some instances of investors looking to sell inner city apartments amid weak rental conditions. This could see properties, at least temporarily, taken off the rental market.</li>
</ul>
While conditions across inner city apartments seem to stabilising, it is clear the Melbourne apartment market has a long way to go before rents see a more consistent recovery trend. This may be further hampered by the construction pipeline, where recently released ABS building activity data showed there were still 43,302 apartments under construction across Victoria through the December quarter. The return of international visitation to Australia has previously kept the Melbourne rental market buoyant amid high levels of new supply. A full recovery in rental incomes across Melbourne units is unlikely under international arrivals are closer to pre-COVID levels.
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One of the most prominent trends in Australian housing markets over the past 12 months has been the deterioration of rents in inner city apartment markets across Sydney and Melbourne

jordan_55689

CoreLogic data shows signs of stabilising in inner city rental markets: Eliza Owen

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The disparity in rental markets across Australia has been extreme. At one end of the spectrum we have extremely tight rental conditions in cities such as Perth and Darwin where both house and unit annual rental growth is above 10%. At the other end are the unit rental markets of Sydney and Melbourne where rents have plunged over the last year, down -5.3% in Sydney, and -8.0% lower in Melbourne. In a similar vein to housing values, rental markets are stronger within the detached housing sector relative to the unit sector.

“The strength in Perth and Darwin’s rental sector can be attributed to a mix of low supply, due to a recent history of low investor participation, and rising demand as interstate migration trends move into positive territory. The opposite trends in Sydney and Melbourne have seen rental markets weaken; higher rental supply due to a recent history of investor exuberance, weaker demand from negative interstate migration and, more recently, a demand shock from closed international borders where Melbourne and Sydney were the primary recipients of migrant arrivals,” Mr Lawless said.

However, the weak conditions across Sydney and Melbourne unit markets look to be turning. Sydney’s rental index for units has recorded two successive months of mild rises, while Melbourne unit rents edged higher in February after falling for nine of the previous ten months. The improvement in unit rents across Australia’s two largest cities is likely to be at least partially seasonal as demand from domestic students generally rises early in the year, but could also be attributable to more people returning to work in the inner cities as well as workers in some of the hardest hit industries such as hospitality, food and accommodation services returning to employment.

Until international borders re-open and migration rates return to their pre-COVID levels, a more substantial improvement in inner city apartment rents is unlikely.

<img alt="" height="342" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/rental_market_feb.jpg" width="583">

Weaker rental conditions in Sydney and Melbourne relative to rising home values is evident in the gross rental yields, with yields across both cities falling to fresh record lows in February. Gross rental yields in Sydney were recorded at 2.9% at the end of February, while in Melbourne yields averaged 3.0%. Every other capital city is recording gross rental yields around the mid-4% mark or higher, implying positive cash flow opportunities are more likely in these markets.

Australian home values surged 2.1% higher in February; the largest month-on-month change in CoreLogic’s national home value index since August 2003. Spurred on by a combination of record low mortgage rates, improving economic conditions, government incentives and low advertised supply levels, Australia’s housing market is in the midst of a broad-based boom.

Housing values are rising across each of the capital city and rest of state regions, demonstrating the diverse nature of this housing upswing.

According to CoreLogic’s research director, Tim Lawless, a synchronised growth phase like this hasn’t been seen in Australia for more than a decade. “The last time we saw a sustained period where every capital city and rest of state region was rising in value was mid-2009 through to early 2010, as post-GFC stimulus fueled buyer demand.”

Sydney and Melbourne were among the strongest performing markets, recording a 2.5% and 2.1% lift in home values over the month respectively, as Australia’s two largest cities caught up from weaker performance through 2020. The quarterly trend however, is still favouring the smaller cities; Darwin housing values rose 5.5% over the past three months, Hobart values rose 4.8% and Perth was up 4.2%.

“Whether this new found growth in Sydney and Melbourne can be sustained is unclear. Both cities are still recording values below their earlier peaks, however at this current rate of appreciation it won’t be long before Australia’s two most expensive capital city markets are moving through new record highs. With household incomes expected to remain subdued and stimulus winding down, it is likely affordability will once again become a challenge in these cities,” Mr Lawless said.

A housing market trend that has persisted through the COVID period to-date is the weaker performance of unit markets relative to detached housing. Across CoreLogic’s combined capitals index, house values (+4.4% over the past three months) have recorded a growth rate more than three times higher than that of its unit counterparts (+1.4%). There are some tentative signs this trend could become less obvious, with Sydney unit values recording their first month of growth since April last year and Melbourne unit values recording their largest gain since late 2019.
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The disparity in rental markets across Australia has been extreme

Unit rents down -8% in Melbourne but soar 10% in Perth and Darwin

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EXPERT INSIGHT

This is largely conjecture, but as Sydney's rental market is steadily righting itself, Melbourne's inner city unit market may need to see rents falling by 50 per cent to fill up the empty units left in the wake of the repeated border closures and lockdowns. 

New South Wales is taking three times as many arrivals as Victoria through quarantine, which may be a part of the equation.

But just as pertinently the on again/off again closures and snap lockdowns will likely see thousands averting Victoria and heading to sunny south-east Queensland instead (and who can blame them?), especially as employers have become more open to the work from home phenomenon.

To be sure this is a rough and ready thesis, but I've seen parts of Noosa Shire with effectively zero rental vacancies lately, and without looking into it too deeply I wouldn't mind a bet that Gold Coast is heading in a similar direction.

A quick straw poll search of realestate.com.au for rental advertisements by Central Business District postcode shows:

<ul>
<li>Hobart TAS 7000 - 31 results</li>
	<li>Perth WA 6000 - 177 results</li>
	<li>Brisbane QLD 4000 - 384 results</li>
	<li>Sydney NSW 2000 - 437 results</li>
	<li>Adelaide SA 5000 - 487 results</li>
	<li>Melbourne VIC 3000 - 3,974 results</li>
</ul>
Granted this is lazy and half-baked analysis, but I also reckon it's pretty much indicative of the reality. 

If you include the city and its surrounding suburbs Melbourne blows out to 12,708 results, versus 2,309 for Sydney CBD and fringe, and 1,957 for Brisbane. 

That can only mean falling rents for Melbourne CBD and its immediate surrounds. 

A potential 50 per cent drop in rents is far from hyperbole: the 12-month change in asking rents for units in the Melbourne 3000 postcode is -33.3 per cent, according to SQM Research data.

For units in Docklands in Melbourne the 12-month change is -31.4 per cent.

Melbourne's loss is Queensland's gain. 
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Melbourne's inner city unit market may need to see rents falling by 50 per cent to fill up the empty units left in the wake of the repeated border closures and lockdowns

pwargent

Melbourne's ongoing rental strife will lead to falling rents: Pete Wargent

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Melbourne's inner city unit market recorded the largest falls across Australia this year down -7.6 per cent over 2020, according to CoreLogic’s Rental Review for the December 2020 quarter.

Across the individual property types nationally, houses substantially outperformed units over the year, with house rents rising by 3.9% annually against a 3% reduction in unit rents.. Unit rents were down -4.6% across the combined capital city unit market.

<img alt="" height="650" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/sydney_unit_rents_1_0.jpg" width="847">

Despite Melbourne recording the largest falls in unit rental rates over the year, Melbourne remains the third most expensive unit market of the capital cities behind Sydney and Canberra. 

Melbourne came in as the third most affordable capital city to rent a house.

<img alt="" height="793" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/melbourne_unit_rents.jpg" width="702">

The area's hit hardest in Melbourne were the City and &amp; Inner East down -13.7 per cent and  -5.3 per cent. Following behind those loss leaders were the North West and Inner South, -3 per cent and -2.9 per cent respectively.

Some regions did see improvement across the wider region including with the Mornington Peninsula up 5 per cent and the Outer East up 0.6 per cent, the only two regions that didn't see a loss in values.

Rental conditions in regional markets have been outperforming capital cities with unit markets recording weak conditions across the largest capital cities.

December 2020 saw Australia’s dwelling market record the largest monthly increase in rental rates since 2010, up 0.6 per cent over the month. The 10 year record can be attributed to growth across the house market which saw a 0.9 per cent rise in rental rates over the month, more than offsetting a -0.1 per cent fall in unit rents.

Across the broad regions, regional markets were the standout performer with both house and unit rents up 1.1 per cent in December, taking house rents 2.9 per cent higher over the final quarter of 2020 and unit rents 2.6 per cent higher.

Unit rental rates across the capital cities fell -0.3 per cent over the month to be down -1.6 per cent over the December quarter. Despite the diverse performance over the year, national rents rose by 1.9 per cent annually in 2020, which was the largest annual increase across the dwelling market since mid-2018. 
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Melbourne's inner city unit market recorded the largest falls across Australia this year down -7.6 per cent over 2020

Melbourne Rental Market

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