<p>Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.</p>

<p>Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;</p>

<p>David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]</p>

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

<p>Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;</p>

<p>At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.</p>

<p>Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.</p>

<p>Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]</p>

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

<p>Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.</p>

<p>David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.</p>

<p>“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]</p>

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

<p>While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;</p>

<p>However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.</p>

<p>Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;</p>


Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.</p>

<p>The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.</p>

<p>Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.</p>

<p>“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.</p>

<p>“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”</p>

<p><img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" /></p>

<p>Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.</p>

<p>The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.</p>

<p>“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.</p>

<p>“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”</p>

<p><img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" /></p>

<p>Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.</p>

<p>“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.</p>

<p>The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.</p>

<p>“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”</p>

<p>The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.</p>

<p>The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.</p>


Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

<p>Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.</p>

<p>Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.</p>

<p>The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.</p>

<p>“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.</p>

<p>“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.</p>

<p>“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”</p>

<p>The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.</p>

<p>“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”</p>

<p>From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.</p>

<p>“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”</p>

<p>The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.</p>

<p>“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.</p>

<p>Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.</p>

<p>“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.</p>

<p>“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”</p>

<p>The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.</p>

<p>“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.</p>

<p>Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>


Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

<p>Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.</p>

<p>The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.</p>

<p>It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.</p>

<p>With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.</p>

<p>“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.</p>

<p>“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”</p>

<p><img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" /></p>

<p>GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.</p>

<p>“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”</p>

<p>Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.</p>

<p>“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.</p>

<p><img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" /></p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.</p>

<p>Green praised local policy settings.</p>

<p>“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”</p>

<p>One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.</p>

<p>“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.</p>


One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

<p>It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.</p>

<p>Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.</p>

<p>Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be</p>

<p data-end="683" data-start="511">"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.</p>

<p data-end="882" data-start="690">"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."</p>

<p data-end="882" data-start="690">[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]</p>

<p>The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.</p>

<p>The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.</p>

<p>Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]</p>

<p>Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.</p>

<p>The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]</p>

<p data-end="247" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="0">While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.</p>

<p>WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.</p>

<p>With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]</p>


WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Housing Markets

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<div>The ONS released its latest data in the UK which showed that inflation or CPI has dug in obdurately at zero year-on-year (a 0.4 reading drops off next month too, so we could be heading negative), suggesting that interest rate hikes are as far as way as they ever were, even after seven years at the effective zero lower bound.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The latest house prices indices from the ONS for July 2015 showed prices rising over the past year in England (+5.6%) with the mix-adjusted average house price in England rising to an all-<span>time high of <span>£299,000.</span></span>
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<div><span><span><br>House prices in England have busted through record highs and are now +19.1% from their pre-downturn peak of January 2008 in seasonally adjusted terms.</span></span></div>
<div><span><span> </span></span></div>
<div><span>By comparison growth over the past year has been flat in Wales (+0.3%) and negative in Scotland (-1.3%), while house prices in Northern Ireland remain a whopping -42.3% below their crazy August 2007 peak levels in seasonally adjusted terms. Woosah.</span></div>
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<span>London house prices continued to power on to a new high of </span><span>£525,000 (not seasonally adjusted), while annual price gains have been driven largely by the areas immediately surrounding London, namely the East (+8.3%) and the South East (+6.7%) of England. </span>
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<div>In short, since the January 2008 peak if you've owned property in London (+46.2% in seasonally adjusted terms), or in nearby cities such as Cambridge or Oxford, then you have continued to do exceptionally well. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>House prices in seasonally adjusted terms are also up reasonably strongly in the areas surrounding London such as the South East (+20.0%) and East (+18.8%) since the preceding January 2008 peak.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Elsewhere prices are now rising again but in real terms are generally well below previous peaks, although in nominal terms 7 of the 9 regions have finally recovered to hit new highs.</div>
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<div><span>At a national level the UK house price index sits at 216.9 which is +16.9% higher than the pre-downturn peak of 185.5 seen in January 2008, with London and the South East accounting for the bulk of the increase. </span></div>
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<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

England house prices power on: Pete Wargent

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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">GUEST OBSERVER</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The timely indicators of local economic activity have generally been improving in recent months. Business conditions and confidence have been on a rising trend. Jobs growth has been strong and forward-looking indicators suggest that hiring intentions have been improving. Mining investment has been trending lower, but growth is rebalancing towards housing and the services sectors. As non-mining sectors are more labour-intensive than mining, this is creating jobs, even if it is not a big support for business investment. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">These local developments have helped to make the RBA more comfortable with its policy setting over the past month or so. The lower AUD is also now providing more support to Australia’s rebalancing act. The 15% fall in the AUD trade-weighted index over the past year means the local currency is now close to a level the RBA deems to be ‘fair value’. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><br></span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">However, offshore risks are brewing. Falls in China’s stock prices, adjustments to the RMB’s fixing mechanism and weaker Chinese indicators have seen increased market volatility as global investors become more concerned about China’s growth outlook. Commodity prices have fallen, with oil and copper prices declining to new six-year lows in recent weeks. Markets have also sold off on concerns about what a rise in the Federal Reserve’s policy rate before the end of the year could mean for emerging economy growth. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><br></span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">These global events are likely to be the focus of the RBA’s meeting next week. Importantly, though, the RBA’s recent statements have been flagging that an increase in market volatility was expected as the Fed got closer to lift-off. Weak commodity prices also do little to change the already weak outlook for new mining investment. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">In next week’s statement we expect the RBA to note that it is too early to know the impact of recent market volatility on global growth. We expect the RBA’s cash rate to be held steady at 2.00% next week and the statement to contain little guidance about the likely future direction of policy. </span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/08/28/Screen%20Shot%202015-08-28%20at%2012.36.56%20PM.png" target="_blank"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><img src="/images/2015/08/28/Screen%20Shot%202015-08-28%20at%2012.36.56%20PM.png" alt="" width="640" height="290"></span></p>
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<p><span>Local economic indicators have been positive </span></p>
<p><span>Australia’s rebalancing act is running its course. A strong upswing in housing prices and residential construction is now combining with the next stage of the rebalancing act: an upswing in the services sectors. The clearest sign of the on-going rebalancing of growth is the upswing in jobs growth, which is being driven by employment in the household and business services sectors (Chart 1). As a result, the unemployment rate has stabilised at around 6-6.25% over the past year. </span></p>
<p><span>Surveys of business conditions also show that growth is shifting away from the mining to non-mining sectors (Chart 2). We expect the services sector to be the next driver of growth (see </span><span>Australia’s next growth driver: The rise of the services sector</span><span>, 10 July 2015). Recent falls in the AUD are helping to support the rebalancing act. Indeed, the 15% fall in the AUD trade-weighted index over the past year has brought the currency to a level that is making the RBA more comfortable (see </span><span>Downunder Digest: Lower AUD is helping Australia's rebalancing act</span><span>, 21 August 2015). </span></p>
<p><span>China’s economic indicators have weakened </span></p>
<p><span>Although local conditions have been improving, timely indicators suggest that China’s growth has continued to slow. The Caixin manufacturing PMI fell to its lowest level since 2009 in August (Chart 3). </span></p>
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<p><span>Matching the weakness in manufacturing activity has been a further slowdown in investment in the manufacturing industry (Chart 4). </span></p>
<p><span>Although housing sales and prices have been lifting in recent months, this is yet to translate into a pick-up in housing investment, which is growing at its slowest pace since early 2009. </span></p>
<p><span>Growth is getting support from better conditions in non-manufacturing industries and continued solid growth in infrastructure investment, but growth in overall fixed asset investment has slowed.</span></p>
<p><span>Weaker growth indicators combined with recent falls in stock prices and changes in the way the People’s Bank of China manages China’s currency have all contributed to a marked increase in financial market volatility recently (discussed further below). China’s authorities have responded to recent concerns about weaker growth with further cuts to interest rates and the reserve requirement ratio. More investment in infrastructure is also expected to be a key support for growth. For more on HSBC’s view on China see HSBC China Economics and FX Strategy, 25 August 2015.</span></p>
<p><span>China and an expected Fed move are driving market volatility </span></p>
<p><span>Together, developments in China and concerns about the impact of a possible increase in the Federal Reserve’s policy rate, expected before the end of the year, have contributed to a significant increase in financial market volatility in recent weeks. Commodity prices have fallen particularly sharply, with copper and oil prices both falling to six-year lows (Chart 5). Iron ore prices have held up better, having fallen sharply earlier in the year. </span></p>
<p><span>Global equity markets have also seen sharp falls and a substantial increase in volatility. Western equity markets have been volatile, as investors assess the possible impact on global growth of weaker growth in emerging economies, which are under pressure from both falling commodity prices and an expected rise in US interest rates. Asia’s markets have been particularly volatile, as concerns about China’s growth and the Federal Reserve weigh on the region (Chart 6). </span></p>
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<p><span>The RBA’s tactics and commentary </span></p>
<p><span>We expect the RBA’s meeting to be uneventful, with the central bank likely to remain comfortable that the economy is continuing to grow, that growth is creating sufficient jobs to keep the unemployment rate steady, and that the AUD is now at a level where it is helping to support the rebalancing of growth. The RBA is likely to acknowledge the recent increase in volatility in financial markets; however, the RBA is also to note that it is too early to determine the impact of these developments on the outlook for global growth. </span></p>
<p><span>We remain of the view that the most likely course for Australia’s monetary policy is that the cash rate remains at its current level in coming quarters. This is particularly the case as the AUD is now providing more support to local growth than previously. However, it does seem likely that the recent developments, particularly the fall in commodity prices, do increase the downside risks to Australia’s growth and, therefore, increase the possibilities that further monetary policy easing may be needed. </span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/08/28/Screen%20Shot%202015-08-28%20at%2012.42.16%20PM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/08/28/Screen%20Shot%202015-08-28%20at%2012.42.16%20PM.png" alt=""></span></p>
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<p><span><em><span><a href="https://www.about.hsbc.com.au/hsbc-in-australia/management-team" target="_blank">PAUL BLOXHAM</a> IS CHIEF ECONOMIST (AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND) FOR HSBC. </span></em></span></p>
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Housing investment growing slowest since early 2009: HSBC's Paul Bloxham

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<p><span>In spite of high growth in Sydney and Melbourne, growth in Australia as a whole is significantly lower than other housing markets around the world – according to the latest Knight Frank Global House Price Index.</span></p>
<p><span>Onthehouse.com.au data reveals that the annual median capital growth rate for Australia’s houses and units was just 5.7% and 5.6% </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">respectively. It is likely that nationally, houses and units are similar in their growth rate because there are more units in dense, high growth areas.</span></p>
<p><span>The two significant resource markets – Darwin and Perth – have showed poor performance over the last year. Houses in Darwin fell -3.74% in the last year, from $575,000 in May 2014 to $554,000 in May 2015.</span></p>
<p><span>The deepening downward trend for these markets can be seen below.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/07/24/G3_Resource_State_Trends.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/07/24/G3_Resource_State_Trends.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><span>The differing trends represent the persistent, two tiered housing market that makes growth across the board seem stable. The Iron Ore price remains low at just US$60 per dry metric tonne, a commodity which averaged over US$100 per unit this time last year. Little has been done to create sustainable employment following low resource prices, and the end of the construction phase in the mining boom.</span></p>
<p><span>It is therefore misleading to look at data in such aggregation. The two tiered housing market makes it difficult for policy makers and Reserve Bank to influence housing growth.</span></p>
<p><span>With a boom on the south east coast that sets a higher deposit hurdle, and a bust in the resource states that has an unclear future, the state of the Australian housing market seems dismal. However, sustainable house and unit growth are an indicator of the strength of the economy. Though we present a summary of statistics by city metropolitan regions, there are suburbs with idiosyncrasies that make them a promising for investment. These include diverse employment opportunities, planning regulation, quality properties and affordability. Exploring such places outside of the major cities could present a more accessible growth or high yield strategy.</span></p>
<p><span><em><span>ELIZA OWEN</span> is a market analyst for <a href="https://www.onthehouse.com.au/" target="_blank">Onthehouse.com.au</a>.</em></span></p>
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