Iwan Sunito's vision for a landmark mixed-use precinct in Sydney's Inner West has taken a major step forward, with approval granted for the $1.9 billion Five Dock development first unveiled earlier this year.

The approved scheme by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/one-global-capital">One Global Capital</a> will deliver an 80,500 sqm mixed-use precinct comprising 840 apartments, integrated hotel accommodation, commercial and retail space, alongside publicly accessible open space designed to create a new destination for the growing suburb.

"This is a significant milestone for One Global Capital and for the future of housing delivery in Sydney," Sunito said.

"The Housing Delivery Authority was established to identify major housing projects capable of delivering meaningful supply more efficiently, and we are delighted that Spencer Street has been recognised as one of those projects.”

He said the declaration reflected the rapid progress achieved since acquiring control of the site.

"In less than seven months we have progressed from taking control of the site to securing entry into one of the NSW Government's most important planning pathways. It reflects the experience of our team, the strength of our consultant group led by Urbis, and our long-term commitment to delivering transformational projects that contribute to Sydney's future."

When the project was revealed earlier this year, Sunito described the opportunity as one of the strongest development sites he had worked on.

"I probably hadn't appreciated the uniqueness of the site until more recently when putting together the concept plans," Sunito said.

"The proximity to the water, and the golf course opposite, is unlike any other part of Parramatta Road. We have a unique position and view corridors over the water that makes this one of the best sites I've worked on."

The development has evolved since its initial announcement, with the approved plans increasing the residential component from the originally proposed 750 apartments to 840 homes while retaining the project's focus on creating an integrated neighbourhood rather than a standalone residential development.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/a-city-within-a-city-iwan-sunito-flags-1-5-billion-mixed-use-precinct-in-five-dock">"A city within a city": Iwan Sunito flags $1.5 billion mixed-use precinct in Five Dock</a>

The precinct will combine apartments with hotel accommodation, commercial workplaces, retail offerings and public spaces, creating a mixed-use environment intended to serve both residents and the broader Five Dock community. The proposal also continues the collaboration between One Global Capital and internationally recognised architect <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/koichi-takada-architects">Koichi Takada</a>, whose previous work with Sunito includes Infinity, Arc and Skye North Sydney.

Takada previously said the design was driven by a philosophy of integrating nature into the built environment.

"The concept for this development is born from our design approach to naturalising architecture," Takada said.

"The public realm benefits from biophilic design that integrates generous landscaping, and the development is optimised for natural daylight, airflow and water views to foster wellbeing, sustainability and spaces that foster community interaction."

Sunito has consistently described the project as a "city within a city", with a strong emphasis on creating a destination that extends beyond housing.

"We want to create a development that's not only to be seen, but to be experienced by the whole local community," he said.

The approval comes as Five Dock continues its transformation ahead of the opening of the Sydney Metro West line, with the new Five Dock station set to significantly improve connections between the Inner West, Parramatta and the Sydney CBD.&nbsp;

The precinct will also benefit from its proximity to the Parramatta Road corridor, nearby waterfront parklands and established retail and dining offerings that have made Five Dock one of Sydney's most tightly held Inner West suburbs.

Joel Robinson

Iwan Sunito secures approval for $1.9 billion Five Dock mixed-use precinct

The new <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/yarraville-green-42-stephen-street-yarraville-vic-3013">Yarraville Green</a> development in Melbourne's inner west is showing that landscaping can be just as influential as architecture, with buyers responding strongly to the garden-first approach adopted from the outset by developer Excelon Projects and the project's design team.

Excelon appointed Six Degrees Architects and landscape architects SBLA to work collaboratively on the development, with a brief to create "a sustainable, design-led building with a focus on community."

That approach has resonated with buyers. According to Next Chapter Director Tom Hirini, who is leading the sales campaign, the landscaped communal garden has become one of the project's defining features, alongside its boutique scale and European-inspired cluster housing concept.

Local downsizers, right-sizers and established families already living in Yarraville and surrounding suburbs have accounted for the majority of purchasers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144913 project_image_fid=297740]

Yarraville Green will comprise 53 homes, including apartments and townhomes, arranged around the shared central garden to maximise connections to the landscaped open space. Parking has been moved underground, allowing the ground plane to be dedicated to greenery, pedestrian movement and communal spaces.

The landscape extends well beyond passive planting. Productive garden beds, a pergola, communal gathering spaces, garden sheds and a pet wash have all been integrated into the masterplan, creating spaces designed to encourage everyday interaction between residents.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144913 project_image_fid=297741]

The interiors continue Excelon's focus on craftsmanship, incorporating bespoke elements by Melbourne artisans including leadlight detailing by Adadaz, hand-turned timber hardware by Auburn Woodturning and blown-glass lighting by Ruth Allen.

Sustainability has also been embedded throughout the project, with Yarraville Green targeting an average 7-star NatHERS energy rating through passive design principles, rooftop solar servicing common areas and rainwater harvesting for landscape irrigation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144913 project_image_fid=297735]

Construction continues to progress at Yarraville Green, with structural works well underway and framing works approaching completion under builder Balmain &amp; Co. The project remains on track for completion in mid-2027.

Apartments at Yarraville Green are currently priced from $625,000, while townhomes start from $1.4 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144913]

Garden-led design drives buyer demand at Yarraville Green

National diversified developer Fortis has officially launched Crest &amp; Walker, its latest Brisbane apartment development, with construction now underway on the 20-storey Newstead project.

Award-winning builder BINAH has commenced construction on the Bureau^Proberts-designed building, which will deliver a limited collection of 65 two and three-bedroom apartments on Kyabra Street.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373556]

The project marks Fortis' fourth active residential development in Brisbane, following River House, which is nearing completion, alongside projects in New Farm and Hamilton as the national developer continues to expand its South East Queensland pipeline.

Fortis General Manager – Development Queensland Dan Boman said Crest &amp; Walker reflects the developer's long-term commitment to delivering design-led residential projects in Brisbane's established inner-city suburbs.

"We're proud to be strengthening our presence in Brisbane with Crest &amp; Walker, particularly in such a sought-after lifestyle destination as Newstead," Boman said.

"Every Fortis project is shaped by its context, and we approach each one with the respect and care it deserves.

"Our focus is always on creating places that feel connected to their neighbourhood and elevate the everyday experience for residents. Newstead continues to evolve as one of Brisbane's most sought-after urban communities, and Crest &amp; Walker reflects our ambition to contribute meaningfully to that story."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373559]

Positioned between Gasworks Plaza and James Street, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/crest-walker-newstead-12-kyabra-street-newstead-qld-4006">Crest &amp; Walker</a> has been designed as a boutique residential address offering privacy and generous living spaces within one of Brisbane's most established lifestyle precincts.

The building features a contemporary brick podium softened by integrated landscaping, while the upper levels are characterised by restrained architecture and enduring materiality. Interiors have been designed to maximise natural light, acoustic performance and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373583]

Residences comprise spacious two and three-bedroom floorplans, with two-bedroom apartments priced from $1.55 million and three-bedroom, half-floor residences from $3.95 million.

Residents will have access to a wellness-focused rooftop featuring a swimming pool, sauna, steam room, landscaped dining spaces and outdoor lounge areas overlooking Newstead and the Brisbane CBD.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373571]

Sales are being managed by Slaite Projects, with Fortis expecting strong demand from owner-occupiers seeking a high-quality, design-focused apartment in one of Brisbane's most tightly held inner-city suburbs.

Completion of Crest &amp; Walker is slated for late 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145922]

Fortis expands Brisbane pipeline with launch of Crest & Walker in Newstead

The enormity of delivering a true skyscraper in Australia's new development market is often overlooked.

It has taken the best part of a decade since plans for Chevron One were first unveiled, but the 41-storey tower is now complete, with residents collecting their keys and moving into what has become one of the Gold Coast's most recognisable new landmarks.

Rising 127 metres above Chevron Island, Chevron One stands almost twice as high as any other building on the island. Its scale places it alongside the trio of towers at Jewel, arguably the last truly significant addition to the central Gold Coast skyline when they were completed around six years ago.

While there are several developments underway around a similar height to Chevron One, they are more concentrated within clusters of the highest towers in the city. The fact Chevron One sits within a developing precinct, looking back at the other high-rise developments in Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach, makes it a different proposition altogether. It will certainly become a reference point on the Gold Coast skyline.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=68833]

Developer Bensons Property Group is behind the 41-storey tower, which has 229 apartments, along with an exhaustive list of resident amenity spread across what is the largest development site ever assembled on Chevron Island.

The tower has been the talk of the town for years, says Ray White Projects Gold Coast agent Caitlin Rosenboom, who is selling the remaining apartments.

"People have been watching Chevron One go up for years," Rosenboom says, adding that many prospective buyers have been surprised by the scale of the views once they step inside.

"It's only when they walk through a completed apartment that they truly understand the position of the building," Rosenboom says.

"The views are jaw-dropping. Whether you're looking east over the ocean, across Surfers Paradise, along the river systems or out to the hinterland, every level offers something different but equally impressive."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=360215]

One of Chevron One's defining advantages is its location on the eastern side of Chevron Island on Stanhill Drive, a position which protects the views forever.

"There's only one row of houses between Chevron One and the water, and the height restrictions along the river means views from Chevron One can never be built out,"&nbsp;Rosenboom says.

While new apartment developments continue to emerge across the Gold Coast, Rosenboom says opportunities to secure a completed apartment with this level of outlook are becoming increasingly rare.

"The size of the site is something that would be incredibly difficult to replicate today," she says.

"That's allowed Chevron One to deliver the sort of amenity, open space and resident facilities that very few projects can offer. There are not many completed apartment buildings on the Gold Coast right now that can compete with the combination of scale, quality and amenity."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=68839]

There's around 2,000 sqm of amenity solely for the use of residents of Chevron One. Club One features a uniquely shaped swimming pool that mirrors the footprint of the building itself, set within a extensively landscaped gardens. There's also an indoor pool and spa, a fully equipped gym with a Pilates room, a yoga garden, a bookable private dining area and lounge that can host up to 30 people, and a 24-hour concierge service.

As for the buyers, Rosenboom is fielding enquiry from everywhere: Sydneysiders and Melburnians looking at the new and off-the-plan market following the changes in the Federal Budget, as well as those looking to relocate, through to South East Queenslanders seeking either a permanent home or a weekender bolthole.

"The Gold Coast lifestyle continues to resonate with people relocating from the southern states, and when they see the views and the quality of what's been delivered at Chevron One, it becomes very easy for them to understand the appeal," Rosenboom says.

A diverse mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments remain available, with each offering "something a little different", be it the orientation and views, configuration, or level, to suit a wide variety of buyers.

The remaining apartments are ready to inspect in person, by appointment.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6515]

A decade in the making: Residents to move into Chevron One as construction wraps up

A general rule of thumb in new apartment developments is that the penthouses get the rooftop.

It's a formula that's become commonplace across Australia's apartment market. Residents might have access to a pool, gym or barbecue facilities on a dedicated lower level, but the most desirable outdoor spaces are typically reserved for the highest-priced homes at the top of the building.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Property Group</a> has taken the opposite approach.

Rather than dedicating the rooftop to a handful of buyers, the Gold Coast developer has made it the centrepiece of its Flourish collection, creating expansive shared spaces from the best vantage point in the building.

The philosophy has reached its most ambitious expression at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-palm-beach-1150-1160-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> in Palm Beach, where two rooftop precincts connected by a skybridge will deliver one of the most extensive lifestyle offerings seen in a residential apartment project on the Gold Coast.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374053]

"We're seeing a clear move toward developments that offer more than just an apartment," Sherpa Group founder Christie Leet said.

"People want spaces that support how they actually live, whether that's working from home, staying active, or spending time with family and friends.

"That's where amenity becomes critical. It's not just about what's included, but how those spaces are designed to be used every day."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374052]

The breadth of amenity has already attracted buyers across multiple demographics. Younger first home buyers have been drawn to Soleira's one-bedroom apartments, a product rarely delivered in Palm Beach, while families have responded to practical inclusions such as the shallow children's pool adjoining the main lap pool and the extensive communal recreation areas.

Instead of a single rooftop, Soleira delivers two distinct lifestyle zones.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=372547]

The southern rooftop has been dedicated to wellness, featuring a gym, yoga and Pilates studio, work-from-home facilities, a wellness centre, spa, and hot and cold plunge pools.

The northern rooftop focuses on recreation and entertaining, incorporating a heated resort-style pool, private dining rooms, pizza ovens, barbecues, a golf simulator, children's recreation areas, and what is expected to be the Gold Coast's first rooftop basketball court, which will also double as a squash court.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374054]

Beyond the rooftops, Soleira will introduce 1,500 sqm of curated retail beneath the towers, creating one of Palm Beach's first genuinely mixed-use lifestyle precincts where cafés, restaurants and convenience retail become part of residents' everyday lives.

Sherpa has also retained management rights across the development, allowing it to oversee the long-term operation of the building through a 24-hour concierge model. The developer is also exploring additional revenue streams within the precinct aimed at helping offset ongoing body corporate costs for residents.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370962]

While Soleira is the largest project Sherpa has delivered, the rooftop-first philosophy has been evolving for several years.

It began with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Amargo</a>, the first project released under the Flourish brand. Rather than competing at the ultra-luxury end of the market with oversized half-floor and full-floor residences, Sherpa focused on creating lifestyle-driven apartments supported by resort-style shared spaces.

Amargo introduced more than 800 sqm of rooftop amenity, combining wellness facilities, heated pools, entertaining areas, cabanas, pizza ovens and private dining spaces into what was designed as an extension of residents' homes rather than a facility used only occasionally.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146527 project_image_fid=366550]

That approach continued with Flourish Oasis, where the same amenity-led philosophy was refined into a more boutique development. Strong demand from Sherpa's growing VIP database saw much of the project sold before it reached the broader market, reinforcing buyer appetite for apartment communities centred around shared lifestyle experiences.

Flourish Amargo is slated for completion mid-way-through next year, with Oasis to be delivered by late 2027. Flourish Soleira is expected to complete in 2030.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]

Sherpa takes amenity to the sky as Flourish Soleira captures booming Palm Beach demand

Housing Markets

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Australia’s housing market has continued to weaken. Conditions still vary widely across cities but are soft overall, with price corrections underway in the previously strong Sydney and Melbourne markets and Perth's longer running period of price declines also continuing.
The three months to August have seen the Westpac Housing Consumer Sentiment Index (a composite measure based on four housing–related components of the Westpac Consumer Sentiment survey) soften a touch but remain consistent with stabilising demand. The main driver of the lift continues to be less downbeat reads on ‘time to buy’, partly reflecting an improvement in affordability. Small positives around jobs and risk aversion have been offset by weakening price expectations.
Turnover remains very low. Whereas earlier estimates had suggested activity might have been stabilising in the first half of 2018, revised and updated data now show turnover nationally down 6.2% over the year to July. The annual pace of decline has moderated and the most recent monthly figures hint at stabilisation but, without a revival, annual growth is likely to stay negative through to year end.
The continued decline in turnover suggests other factors such as tightening loan criteria and falling investor activity are weighing on activity, essentially preventing what would likely have been a stabilisation in conditions by now.
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/8/28/WESTPAC.jpg" alt="">
<div> </div>
<div>Matthew Hassan is a Senior Economist at Westpac.</div>
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Matthew_Hassan-HHWHptmrw4

Housing sentiment stable but markets still weakening: Matthew Hassan

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Perth created $98.1 million in loss making resales accounting for 22.9% of all losses nationally, over the March 2018 quarter.
Its resales of residential properties in Perth created $889 million worth of resale profits which accounted for 6% of resale profits nationally.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/5/PG%20Perth%201.JPG" alt="">
Peppermint Grove had no resales at a loss.
No other council region had fewer than 15% of resales at a loss over the quarter.
The highest proportion of resales at a loss over the quarter was recorded in the Perth, Mandurah and Rockingham council areas.
With the housing market across Perth showing tentative signs of bottoming out, we may start to see loss making sales steady however, both houses and units recorded an increase over the quarter.
Click to <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/7/5/PG%20Perth%202.JPG" target="_blank">enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/5/PG%20Perth%202.JPG" alt="">
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Perth accounted for 23% of all residential resale losses nationally: CoreLogic Pain & Gain report

soliver-smf6LQXgW9

Australian house prices will continue to slide: AMP Capital's Shane Oliver

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Overcrowding is an inevitable and often overlooked result of the affordable housing shortage in our cities.
When a dwelling requires four or more extra bedrooms to reasonably accommodate occupants, the standard commonly used in Australia defines that as severe overcrowding. In 2011, 41,390 Australians lived in severely overcrowded dwellings, an increase of one-third from 2006. This increase occurred mostly in cities where house prices had risen sharply.
Our recent research, to be published soon, examined where overcrowded housing is located in our capital cities. We found:
<ul>
<li>Sydney and Melbourne are most affected by concentrated overcrowding</li>
<li>levels of overcrowding are highest in middle-city areas (except in Adelaide)</li>
<li>overcrowding overlaps strongly with socioeconomic disadvantage.</li>
</ul>
What exactly do we mean by overcrowding?
Pressure in the affordable housing sector has led to increases in overcrowding. Media reports describe situations of “ten people in a two-bed unit”, “58 beds crammed into 19 dirty, makeshift rooms” and “ten people shoehorned into one bedroom, tenants sleeping in bathrooms, and in one case, a pantry”.
Living in severely crowded dwellings has been described as the most common form of homelessness.
Security and safety can be an issue when residents do not have privacy and control of their own space. But people sacrifice space and safety to secure affordable accommodation.
An example of the dangers was a fatal fire in an apartment illegally partitioned to create a fourth bedroom.
Commonly used standards of overcrowding range from simple indicators such as persons per bedroom (e.g. American Crowding Index) to more sophisticated indicators that consider family size and composition (age, gender and marital status).
One such measure, the Canadian National Occupancy Standard (CNOS), is officially recognised in Australia. It assesses a household’s bedroom requirements using the following criteria:
<ul>
<li>no more than two people should share a bedroom</li>
<li>children of different sexes under five years of age may reasonably share a room</li>
<li>children of different sexes should not share a bedroom when aged five or older</li>
<li>children under 18 and of the same sex may reasonably share a bedroom</li>
<li>parents, couples and household members aged 18 or older should have a separate bedroom.</li>
</ul>
Under this standard, households that need at least one extra bedroom are considered overcrowded. A shortfall of four or more bedrooms is severe overcrowding, with greater risks for health and safety.
One standard doesn’t fit all situations
Measuring overcrowding is not straightforward. The age and sex separation thresholds involve assumptions about the age of puberty and adulthood.
CNOS is the preferred measure of the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Statistics New Zealand and the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW). This is because it takes the age and sex of occupants into account and matches our values and expectations of how space is used.
In Australia, it is usually acceptable for children of the same sex to share a bedroom before puberty. But we already know CNOS does not account for differing cultural expectations of the numbers of bathrooms and toilets, and the size of kitchens, bedrooms and living spaces. CNOS embeds assumptions that do not hold across ethnically diverse groups in Australia.
For example, a study of migrant suburbs in Sydney and Melbourne found “it is not uncommon to have families with two adults and five children sharing a two-bedroom property”. This is due to large family size and different cultural norms, including intergenerational occupancy of housing. Few properties are designed for this.
Traditional Pacific houses use living spaces rather than separate bedrooms for sleeping. A bedroom with more than two people is compatible with the attitudes of some Pacific and Mäori peoples to having a sense of adequate space.
Similarly, using the Canadian standard, Indigenous Australians are more than five times as likely to live in overcrowded housing as non-Indigenous Australians. This is alarmingly high and likely driven by high rates of socioeconomic disadvantage. We need to disentangle the extent to which values around space and its use versus socio-economic drivers of overcrowding underlie this statistic.
Do we need better measures?
So should we develop Australian-specific culturally sensitive standards? We think that depends on what we want to know.
Physiological stress and disease risk as a result of crowding occur for different ethnic groups regardless of whether they perceive themselves as crowded. Culturally specific standards may not be necessary when broadly examining the relationships between crowding and transmission of infections such as rheumatic fever, colds, asthma, influenza and meningococcal disease. Living in close quarters is relevant regardless of cultural norms of housing or nuances of measurement of crowding. Standard indices, while not perfect, capture this.
However, expectations about shared space might influence impacts on mental health. Social relations and family bonds are key social determinants of mental health. In particular, shared culture has been identified as a positive resource in improving Indigenous health. Current crowding metrics ignore non-bedroom-related uses of housing.
Crowding indices that capture the use of space – for example, incorporating subjective feelings that too many people are around – could be a step forward. Given our climate of wide temperature ranges and the high cost of utilities, such indices might also consider “functional overcrowding” – people sharing small spaces or beds due to concerns about heating/cooling and security.
Research on wellbeing would benefit from integrating a better understanding of the variety of needs of cultural groups and tailoring measures to our climatic conditions. However, such measures would be more subjective than current standard measures, more difficult to collect at a population level and less comparable with international standards.
What can we do about harmful overcrowding?
Cultural preferences mean low levels of overcrowding may not always be problematic. But overcrowding is a problem when generated by socio-economic disadvantage and when it compromises people’s safety and security. This is likely in cities where housing costs are high.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96110/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">Broader measures are needed to improve the supply of affordable housing. This includes dedicated programs such as the National Rental Affordability Scheme (NRAS) and extra funding for social housing. Enforceable laws that go beyond the Public Health and Wellbeing Act in Victoria and NSW Fair Trading strata reforms are also needed to monitor overcrowding and avoid the negative impacts of severe overcrowding.
Shanaka Herath, Vice-Chancellor’s Postdoctoral Research Fellow, University of Wollongong
Rebecca Bentley, Associate Professor, Centre for Health Equity, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/overcrowded-housing-looms-as-a-challenge-for-our-cities-96110" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Overcrowded housing looms as a challenge for our cities

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<div>
Fitch Ratings does not expect a "sharp or subdued" correction in the housing market because economic growth and unemployment will remain "benign."
</div>
<div>
Fitch forecasts 2.7 per cent economic growth, 5.5 per cent unemployment and reliance on commodity exports as a possible source of volatility.
"High residential property prices and borrower indebtedness could also cause economic stress," the report concludes.
As part of a housing "stress test", the global credit rating agency recently calculated that the big four would suffer $24 billion in losses if house prices fell 43 per cent and defaults hit 13 per cent.
However, recoveries from lenders' mortgage insurers would cut the loss to about $19 billion.
It suggested the $1.3 trillion mortgage books of Australia's big four banks could withstand an Ireland-style correction in property prices but the lenders' ability to deal with second-order impacts remained uncertain.
"CBA would experience the largest losses under our analysis, followed by Westpac, reflecting these banks' larger exposures to Australian mortgages than ANZ and NAB," the agency said.
</div>
<div>
Fitch's forecast for Australian economic growth came as the Reserve Bank of Australia warned that high domestic debt makes households more sensitive to changes in income and interest rates.
It estimated households should be able to afford a mortgage rate "well more than 2 per cent higher than it is currently".
<div>
The most probable source of an economic shock would be external, Fitch suggests.
"A rapid increase in the unemployment rate remains the most likely driver of a significant housing market correction, although sharply higher interest rates would also pressure some borrowers – given the level of household debt."
The agency said another risk was the rollover of $480 billion of interest-only loans over the next three years.
</div>
<div>Fitch foresees a further tightening of underwriting standards, given the increased scrutiny of the Hayne royal commission, which could affect the housing market. </div>
<div>
"This will probably result in a further decline in the maximum amount many borrowers can obtain from a bank, and could have an adverse impact on house prices as a result."
</div>
</div>
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Fitch doesn't expect sharp property correction

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The upturn in demand for residential land in the major eastern state centres is expected to begin to peter out over 2017/18 as the new housing market faces emerging headwinds, according to leading industry analyst and economic forecaster, BIS Oxford Economics.
According to the company’s Outlook for Residential Land 2017 to 2022 report series, residential lot production in Sydney, Melbourne and South East Queensland is around its peak in this cycle and will begin to fall away. In contrast, demand for land in Adelaide and Perth has been weakening and will continue to soften.
However, BIS Oxford Economics senior manager and report series author, Angie Zigomanis, said that the forecast downturns in the eastern state centres are likely to be moderate. New supply in these markets has been more pronounced in the unit/apartment sector, with markets continuing to experience a deficiency of detached house stock that is likely to continue to underpin demand.
Nevertheless, new housing demand has still risen to high levels. Sydney is estimated to have recorded its highest level of residential land production over 2016/17. Lot production in Melbourne peaked in 2014/15 but has remained close to this peak in the subsequent two years. Similarly, the Brisbane, Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast markets have been experiencing a moderate upturn since 2013/14 after an extended period of weakness.
“Steady price growth in houses in the initial stages of the housing construction upturn improved land price affordability and shifted some demand from the established house market, to the new house and land market,” said Zigomanis.
“This not only encouraged a greater percentage of home purchasers to opt for a new house over an established one, but also established house owners to sell up and upgrade to a new, larger house.”
In contrast to the strength of the eastern state capitals, the Adelaide land market has softened considerably, in line with weak population growth and a subdued local economy. Lot production in 2016/17 was well below its peak and there are few key economic drivers on the horizon.
Meanwhile, the Perth market continues to struggle both in absorbing the declines in mining investment and in broadening its economic base. Migration and population growth have fallen to well below their pre- mining boom levels. Despite easing lot production, dwelling supply has remained well above underlying demand adding to a significant dwelling oversupply, which will weigh on any cyclical upturn in the coming years.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/12/7/lot-production-chart.jpg" alt="">
Lot production in the main east coast capital cities and the Gold and Sunshine Coasts has been underpinned by solid population growth and a housing deficiency, and has been facilitated by record- low interest rates that drove new house demand.
Zigomanis states that the rise in new housing activity is now easing some of the demand pressures in the market, while the deterioration of housing and land price affordability will impact demand for new houses and consequently limit the next round of lots produced.
“Most markets saw house price growth outpace land price growth through the early stages of the upturn, which improved the value proposition for a new house”, said Zigomanis. “That said, land prices have now largely caught up and this gap will have narrowed, making new housing less attractive.”
As a result, many cities are expected to see demand for land and lot production decline over 2017/18 and 2018/19.
Land production in Sydney was estimated at 11,300 lots in 2016/17; its highest level in the past 25 years. Although a sizeable dwelling deficiency is still estimated to be in place in Sydney, it is now being eroded by new dwelling supply. Meanwhile, the house and land price growth through the upturn has seen affordability diminish, as evidenced by rising net outflows of population from Sydney. This is expected to see lot production begin to ease back from 2017/18.
Record population growth has been the main driver of demand for new houses and land in Melbourne. Together with affordable land, this has also seen lot production sustained at record levels since 2014/15.
“However, there have been significant rises in land prices in Melbourne in 2017, and this has seen new house affordability deteriorate,” said Zigomanis. “While lot production is likely to remain high in 2017/18 as recent pre-sales of residential lots are delivered, the resultant weaker demand will cause lot production to fall away from 2018/19.”
After bottoming out at a 20-year low of 4,800 lots in 2012/13, the resultant undersupply in Brisbane initiated an upturn that has been supplemented by strengthening net interstate migration inflows, with an estimated 9,400 lots created in 2016/17. A further rise is forecast in 2017/18, before significant oversupply in the Brisbane apartment market plays through to demand for new housing.
The Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast markets have followed the lead of Brisbane. A weak market and emerging dwelling deficiency saw lot production rise from a low base in 2013/14 through to a peak in 2016/17. Both markets arguably benefit from migration from Brisbane, Sydney and, to an extent, Melbourne, as affordability becomes increasingly constrained in those cities.
Lot production in Adelaide has been more moderate than the eastern state centres. Low interest rates and modest house price growth has supported some buyer demand. However, slowing economic conditions and easing population growth are now weighing on the market.
Similarly, lot production in the Perth market is now falling after a peak in 2014/15. The decline in mining-related investment has caused net interstate migration to shift from an inflow to an escalating outflow, while overseas migration has fallen. Consequently, demand for new houses has slumped, impacting the land market.
Through the upturns in all markets, developers have sought to keep land affordable and maintain margins by steadily reducing the size of the lots sold. However, it appears that median lot sizes have stabilised in most cities in the past two-to-three years. This suggests there is a lower limit to what the market will absorb. Moreover, it makes the economics of development more challenging as rising costs cannot be met by further reductions to the size of lots.
An expected softening in house price growth over 2017/18 and 2018/19 is expected to play through to land prices, which in turn will make it more difficult for developers to maintain margins as construction costs continue to escalate. Together with recent solid rises in land prices making affordability more challenging, and strong construction alleviating some of the undersupply pressures, most markets are expected to experience an easing in lot production in the next two-to-three years.
Separately, changing lifestyle choices and affordability preferences have also seen greater demand for medium and high density dwellings, at the expense of new houses, across the country.
The downturn in new dwelling supply will eventually see a rising deficiency re-emerge in most markets. Together with an expected acceleration in economic growth by the turn of the decade, this will underpin rising demand through the next cycle. 
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Emerging headwinds will dampen demand for new houses and land across the major centres: BIS

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Australia’s housing market will likely record moderate dwelling price rises in 2018, which will beat a slower rate than the price gains in 2017, led by a slowdown in Sydney, according to SQM housing expert Louis Christopher in his new report. 
SQM Research’s base case forecast is for capital city dwelling prices to rise between 4% to 8% in 2018, which would represent a fall from a growth rate of approximately 8.5% over the past 12 months to 30 September 2017. 
The rate of property price increases will be slower in 2018, predominantly due to a slowdown in the Sydney housing market, which should continue into the first half of the year. Melbourne’s property market will also lose some momentum, however, this will only be a relatively modest slowdown, according to predictions in Christopher’s Housing Boom and Bust Report. 
“Offsetting a slowdown in Melbourne and Sydney will be first-year property market recoveries for Perth and Darwin and an ongoing real estate boom in Hobart’s property market, which is set to record the highest level of accelerated price growth of any capital city next year at between 8% to 13%,” Christopher said.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/10/18/Crash1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/10/18/Crash1.jpg" alt="">
Brisbane’s property market will experience slightly stronger gains than those posted in 2017, with property prices forecast to rise between 3% to 7%. However, the persistent overhang of surplus property listings will hold back property in that city from a faster rate of inflation. 
The base case for all capital cities forecasts assumes no changes in interest rates next year, a stable exchange rate and the existing restrictions by APRA on investment lending to remain in place. 
“Through the actions of APRA earlier this year, a possible deeper housing correction in Sydney and Melbourne has been averted, for now. Accelerated population growth rates in Melbourne and Sydney have enabled the cities to avoid severe property downturns. On the flipside, housing affordability will likely continue to deteriorate in 2018 with growth in property prices still outpacing wages growth,” said Christopher. 
“The authorities were right to take action earlier this year to restrict investing lending by banks. Failure to have taken action would have resulted in out-of-control Sydney and Melbourne housing markets, where additional aggressive monetary policy may well have triggered a large fall in dwelling prices in 2018,” said Christopher.
“APRA’s action, which came earlier than I had expected, has meant that the Sydney housing market is cooling sooner than expected. That has meant our Sydney forecast for this year of price growth of 11% to 16% will not be reached and a more moderate 6% to 8% increase in prices can be anticipated for 2017.
“Our Sydney forecast for 2018 is for a 4% to 8% increase in prices whereby Sydney will record a soft market in the first half of the year, but property prices will start to recover in the second half as the banks will likely increase investment lending once again. There have been reports of banks investment lending ratios being under the maximum thresholds allowed, so we can expect a rise next year as banks increase investment lending up to this limit.” 
“Hobart’s property market is expected to remain the fastest growing city in 2018, with the combination of a fast economy and housing supply shortages likely to ensure the second year running of double digit price rises for that city,” Christopher said. 
Christopher’s Housing Boom and Bust Report this year also has a full breakdown of every postcode in the country covering current market statistics and its postcode investor ratings. The full report can be found on <a href="https://www.sqmresearch.com.au" target="_blank">www.sqmresearch.com.au</a> for $69.95.
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No Sydney housing crash in 2018, but we will see a slowdown: SQM's Louis Christopher

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GUEST OBSERVER
Australian housing finance approvals firmed in Dec. The number of new approvals for owner occupiers rose 2.6%, broadly in line with market expectations and consolidating on a 1.9% gain in Nov to be up 9.8%yr. Ex-refi, the number of 'new' loan approvals was up 1.6%mth, 4.6%yr.
Note that changes in lending criteria and borrowing rates for investor loans is indirectly boosting owner occupier activity. Although the bulk of the initial ‘switching’ effect seemed to come through between June and Sep. On the other side of this effect, the value of loans to investors dropped 19% between April and Oct but stabilised in the closing months of 2015, rising 1% in Nov and a further 0.6% in Dec (though still down 13.6%yr).
The total combined value of loans – our preferred gauge of housing demand at the moment given the aforementioned category switching – was up 0.8%mth, 6.4%yr. Growth is significantly flatter once refinance is excluded – the value of refi approvals surged 36% over the year to Dec 2015, accounting for almost all of the growth in the total value of new loans (ex refi, the value of loans is up just 0.2%yr).
Construction-related finance approvals posted a particularly strong month, up 5.2%mth led by 12.4% jump in approvals for the purchase of newly-built dwellings, which incudes 'off the plan' purchases. Note that many of these loans will be post the completion of building rather than a forward indicator of future work. That said, loans for construction were also up 1.8%mth, suggesting a degree of resilience outside the 'high rise' segment that has driven the declinein dwelling construction approvals to date.
Unfortunately, the state detail from the report is of limited use as the value of investor loans and total loans is not available until additional data is published next week. That said, the number of owner-occupier loans ex refi is showing strong gains across both NSW and Vic, with WA the only state showing material weakness.
Overall the picture is of some stabilisation after a sharp investor-led softening over the second half of last year. This weekend’s auction results will be the first meaningful reading on how much this may have carried into 2016. This week's update on consumer sentiment showed assessments of 'time to buy a dwelling' at still weak levels, albeit with some improvement in NSW &amp; Vic. Price measures hint at some firming in recent months although the summer holiday hiatus makes this and other housing data notoriously unreliable over Jan-Feb period.
Matthew Hassan is senior economist with <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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Australian housing finance December 2015: Westpac's Matthew Hassan

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Sydney remains the only capital city where units had a lower level of resales at a loss than houses over the June 2015 quarter, according to Core Logic RP Data's latest Pain &amp; Gain report.
The report found during the quarter 7.7% of houses and 12.6% of units were resold for less than their previous purchase price.
In the capital cities, 5% of houses and 8.4% of units were resold at a loss. Regional houses and units figures are 12.5% and 23.8% respectively. 
<a href="/images/2015/09/29/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-29%20at%2012.18.01%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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Houses and units suffering resale losses: CoreLogic RP Data

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A Minister for Cities and the Built Environment will help Australia make the most of its productivity powerhouses, says the Green Building Council of Australia (GBCA).
The Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has appointed South Australian Jamie Briggs as Australia’s first Minister for Cities and the Built Environment.
“This appointment recognises not only the importance of our cities as the engine room of the nation’s productivity and prosperity, but also the central role the built environment plays in tackling many of Australia’s greatest challenges," the GBCA’s chief executive officer, Romilly Madew said.
“Minister Briggs’ long-awaited appointment will enable us to better tackle the challenges we face – challenges such as climate change, population growth, ageing demographics, congestion, housing affordability, liveability and social inclusion."
The Property Council of Australia chief executive Ken Morrison warmly welcomed Malcolm Turnbull as "perhaps our most urbanist Prime Minister ever."
"He has lost no time in placing cities firmly on the federal agenda," Mr Morrison said.
"Make no mistake about it, this is a key economic appointment.
"The move recognises that in the most urbanised country in the world Australia's productivity challenges are going to be need to be met in our cities.
"With the property industry accounting for one ninth of Australia's GDP and employing 1.1 million people - more than mining and manufacturing combined - there is an increasing urban dimension to the economy.
"Jamie Briggs is a smart appointment as the new Cities Minister given his record in securing the government's $50 billion infrastructure commitment in last year's budget.
"The move mirrors one already made by the Opposition last year in appointing Anthony Albanese as shadow cities minister, and it is very pleasing to now see a bipartisan approach to the importance of this issue."
The Property Council also congratulated Scott Morrison - a former head of research for the organisation in the 1990s - on his appointment as federal Treasurer.
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