Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.

The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.

The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.

The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.

The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.

MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.

Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.

The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.

<img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" />

MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.

"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.

"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."

The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.

Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.

Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.

"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.

"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."

MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.

"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.

"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."

Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.

"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."

The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.

MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.

Joel Robinson

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

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Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.

But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.

Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]

The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.

It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]

Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.

Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.

Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]

Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.

"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.

A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.

It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.

At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.

Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]

Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.

"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.

The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.

More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]

<h3 data-end="3697" data-section-id="q3n5ak" data-start="3672">&nbsp;</h3>
</main>

Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.

Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.

Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]

The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.

Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.

Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]

Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.

The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.

“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]

“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”

The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]

Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.

The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.

The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.

PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" />

Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.

The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.

A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.

More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.

The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" />

The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.

PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.

“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.

“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”

The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.

PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.

PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.

The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.

That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.

The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.

A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.

&nbsp;

Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.

Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.

While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;

Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.

First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

Housing Affordability

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National housing affordability declined in the December quarter, affecting nearly all states and territories, a new report has found.
Victoria and the Northern Territory were the only places where affordability increased, research from the Real Estate Institute of Australia (REIA) and Adelaide Bank found.
Tasmania was the hardest hit, said REIA President Adrian Kelly.
“Rental affordability, for the quarter, marginally declined across the country,” Kelly said. 
“With the exception of New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania, rental affordability declined in all states and territories with the largest decline in the Northern Territory. 
“Victoria was the only state or territory in which both housing affordability and rental affordability improved. “Despite the Christmas break, the number of loans has increased across the country by 3.3%, with increases in all states and territories except Queensland. 
Kelly said during the quarter, the number of loans to first home buyers has increased, with increases in all states and territories.
The number of loans to first home buyers as a proportion of all loans has also increased over the quarter.  “Tasmania, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory all had relatively large increases in loans to first home buyers,” Kelly said.  
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National housing affordability takes a hit in December quarter

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
Housing market stabilisation depends on the response of owner occupiers to improving affordability.
Buyer sentiment provides a rough guide to how this is progressing.
<div>
With the price adjustment in Sydney and Melbourne continuing and investor demand unlikely to return any time soon, an eventual stabilisation depends heavily on the response of owner occupiers to improving affordability. A recovery in buyer sentiment suggests improvements are already gaining some traction.
However, the measures of affordability that align best with sentiment also suggest further improvements will be required to generate a lift in demand. While Westpac now expects interest rate cuts to contribute to better affordability, price moves will need to do more of the ‘work’ than in previous adjustments.
There is little doubt that housing affordability and consumer sentiment towards housing are closely linked. Our previous research established a particularly close relationship between the ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index and an affordability measure that incorporates both deposit requirements and mortgage repayments.
Latest readings on both measures show buyer sentiment lifting a little in response to some easing in affordability pressures, although the gap to long run averages indicates affordability is still not back to ‘normal’.
The chart below shows the evolution of affordability over previous price corrections and the contributions from the three components: prices, mortgage rates and incomes. In each of these, falling rates and income growth provided assistance in restoring affordability. In contrast, the current adjustment is expected to see much less assistance from rates and is occurring against a backdrop of weak income growth.
This implies that price declines will need to do most of the ‘heavy lifting’ to generate an affordability improvement.
We can get some indicative estimates of how much further prices may need to move by looking at the price change required to return affordability to its 20yr average. The results point to about a 5% decline required nationally with more substantive moves in the 5-10% range for NSW and Vic, and milder moves across other states.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/Housing_Pulse/Housing_Pulse_Bites/2019-02/Housing-pulse-bite-2019-02-2.jpg" alt="">  
MATTHEW HASSAN is a Senior Economist for Westpac
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

How do we restore housing affordability? Matthew Hassan

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Between 2017 and 2018, Sydney Metro median house prices have softened by 5.6%, whilst units have softened at a more moderate rate of 2.5%, according to the latest PRD nationwide livability report.
This reflects a consecutive decline for unit median price, which PRD have stated, presents an opportunity for buyers to break into Sydney's property market and capitalise on increasing affordability.
They have recommended that prospective houses buyers looking for affordable options should look toward Sydney’s South Western suburbs.
Particularly as there is $15.3B worth of development in the pipeline or under construction in the 2nd half 2018 there are many exciting projects that will improve Sydney’s infrastructure, attracting commercial activity and population growth in the near future.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/12/7/Panania.JPG" alt="">
One of the affordable and livable house hotspots that PRD highlighted is Panania (pictured above), located roughly 20.5km from the CBD.
The suburb has a median house price of $973,000 comprised of a two bedroom median price of $857,500, a three bedroom median price of $940,000 and a four plus bedroom median price of $1,005,00.
Panania is a frequent feature on the affordability and livability report located in southwest Sydney.
The report notes, "it is well-serviced by a variety of shops, public transport, schools, parks and the Western Sydney University.
"Median house price in the suburb of Panania softened by -7.9% between 2017 and 2018, which presents a perfect opportunity for buyers to capitalise on increased affordability."
"Meanwhile investors are benefiting from a low vacancy rate (1.2%) as well as strong rental yields (3.1%)," the report added.
Panania’s appeal will be further enhanced by the $7.0M^ Anderson Ave Mixed Development due to commence in the 2nd half of 2018, according to PRD.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/12/7/Panania%202.JPG" alt="">
For apartments however a hotspot that PRD nationwide made note of is Hurstville (pictured above).
Located roughly 13.3km from the CBD, the median unit price is $711,000.
For a one bedroom apartment the median price is $555,840, while for a two bedroom apartment the median price is $705,000.
Three plus bedroom apartments in Hurstville, positioned to the south west of the Sydney CBD, have a median price of $840,000.
The report states Hurstville is well positioned as a business hub for the surrounding areas, and boasts a Westfield shopping centre as well as schools, parks and medical facilities.
"Despite a minor annual median unit price softening of -1.3% since 2017 Hurstville remains a top performing liveable and affordable suburb, with solid rental yields of 3.8% and low vacancy rates of 1.7%."
"Residential and commercial projects valued at approximately $5.8 million in the 2nd half of 2018 will answer future demand and stimulate the local economic growth," the report concluded. 
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Sydney's south west pinpointed as affordable and liveable suburbs: PRD Nationwide

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
For the first time since 2016 the first and lowest price band of $0-$500,000 has opened to Sydney buyers, at 1.4% of the market, as shown in the latest <a href="https://www.prd.com.au/research-hub/affordable-liveable-property-guide-2nd-half-2018/" target="_blank">2018 Affordability and Livability Report</a> released by PRD nationwide.
Although this is a very marginal part of the market, this marks a more affordable Sydney.
For the first time since 2015 all the affordable and liveable suburbs in Sydney had negative annual median price growth, a sign of market cooling.
Prior to this, affordable and liveable suburbs showcased positive growth, thus, in the Livability and Affordability report it became a task of nominating suburbs with as moderate a softening as possible.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/12/7/PRD%20Nationwide.JPG" alt="">
In Brisbane, all affordable and liveable suburbs were in the north.
This was different to previous reports, where affordable and liveable house hotspots were found in all pockets of Brisbane (i.e. north, south, east, etc.).
None of the affordable suburbs in Hobart were able to satisfy the liveability criteria.
To ensure liveability aspects were met, the median suburb price had to be raised above that of the Hobart metro median price.
This only occurred in Hobart, which suggests the strong need to develop a strategy that addresses liveability aspects in more affordable areas of Hobart.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/12/7/PRD%20Nationwide%202.JPG" alt="">
Of all the capital cities, Melbourne has proven to be the most resilient market, both in terms of price growth (in comparison to Sydney) and in ease of satisfying liveability aspects in its more affordable suburbs.
Dr Diaswati (Asti) Mardiasmo National Research Manager | PRDnationwide | Colliers International
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Sydney's sub-$500,000 affordable home market opens up for Sydney buyers: PRD research

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The National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation (NHFIC) board has appointed Mr Nathan Dal Bon as it's inaugural Chief Executive Officer.
Mr Dal Bon was previously a Senior Commonwealth Treasury official and he led the Treasury team working extensively on the establishment of the NHFIC.
He has been NHFIC’s interim CEO since September 2018.
Mr Dal Bon has over 20 years’ experience in economic policy and advising across Government. 
He has held senior executive roles in the Commonwealth Treasury, the Department of Industry, Innovation and Science, and the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.
Mr Dal Bon has a Master in Public Administration from Harvard University and a Bachelor of Economics (Hons) degree from the University of Newcastle.
The NHFIC Chairman, Brendan Crotty, said “Mr Dal Bon and the Treasury team were instrumental in setting up the NHFIC and he is uniquely placed to guide the Corporation as it delivers on the Government’s objective of increasing the supply of affordable housing and reducing the cost of borrowings for the Community Housing Providers, with the benefit of these initiatives flowing through to low income tenants in the form of reduced rents.”
The NHFIC was established by the Commonwealth Government in mid-2018 and has three key functions:
1. The Affordable Housing Bond Aggregator
2. The National Housing Infrastructure Facility
3. Providing capacity building assistance to Community Housing Providers (CHPs)
The Affordable Housing Bond Aggregator will assist the growth of registered CHPs by providing cheaper and longer tenor finance.
The $1 billion National Housing Infrastructure Facility will finance housing-related infrastructure – such as roads, water and sewerage, electricity and gas – to accelerate the provision of new housing across Australia.
The NHFIC can also fund capacity-building services for CHPs, in particular assisting CHPs to develop their financial and management capability.
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The National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation appoints Nathan Dal Bon as inaugural CEO

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GUEST OBSERVATION
A commonly held view is that changing planning rules could significantly increase housing supply and hence make housing more affordable. Recent commentary, <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-make-housing-more-affordable-this-is-what-state-governments-need-to-do-105050" target="_blank">including here</a>, repeats this. It’s a view that glosses over the special features of land, which allow property developers to control housing supply to a significant extent.
To understand what’s going on, we need to look at why land makes the housing market different from any other.
Economic theory and the special features of land
<a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=oACQM7HMDDoC&amp;pg=PA1658&amp;lpg=PA1658&amp;dq=land+is+not+a+homogeneous+product&amp;source=bl&amp;ots=7zrLO8-FDl&amp;sig=ymeg8EJNeO5A2_15zvWF3hir6gQ&amp;hl=en&amp;sa=X&amp;ei=_n4CVbD8HIjr8AXjxgI&amp;ved=0CB0Q6AEwAA#v=onepage&amp;q=land%20is%20not%20a%20homogeneous%20product&amp;f=false" target="_blank">Land has special features</a> that other goods don’t usually have. The most fundamental of these features is fixed location.
What’s more, land does not physically degrade over time. As a result, it doesn’t have to be sold but instead can be withheld from sale without financial cost.
These features are important when considering the application of standard supply-demand theory to housing markets.
Economic theory says increasing the supply of a good will lower the price for a given level of demand. Like a lot of economic theory, this is <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perfect_competition" target="_blank">based on simplifying assumptions</a>. The following assumptions are particularly relevant when considering land:
<ul>
<li>the good is homogeneous</li>
<li>all market participants have full information about the market</li>
<li>no participant has an undue influence on the market</li>
<li>there are no barriers for new market participants.</li>
</ul>
However, we know that land is not homogeneous. Location is particularly important.
And property developers generally have much more knowledge of the market than individual buyers, potentially giving developers undue influence.
The capacity of developers to withhold land from sale and the fact that new developers wanting to enter the market face significant barriers – importantly the financial capacity to hold back land when demand and sales are reduced – are also at odds with the assumptions of supply-demand theory.
UK economist <a href="http://evonomics.com/josh-ryan-collins-land-economic-theory/" target="_blank">Josh Ryan-Collins notes</a> that current economic theory does not differentiate between land and capital (such as machinery). This may well be one of the main reasons the special features of land are often overlooked in discussions about housing supply.
Governments don’t control housing supply
<a href="https://www.prosper.org.au/2013/09/03/saul-eslake-50-years-of-housing-failure/" target="_blank">In the past, governments developed more housing directly</a>, but over the past 20-30 years the role of government has been mainly to enable private developers to provide housing.
Governments may release enough land for the expected population, but <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/from-big-land-banks-little-things-grow-20120601-1znb4" target="_blank">private developers decide</a> how much housing is <a href="http://www.parliament.wa.gov.au/parliament%5Ccommit.nsf/%28Report+Lookup+by+Com+ID%29/F4088CA4544382084825793D00061BD2/%24file/30105662.pdf" target="_blank">offered for sale</a> at any time. It’s no secret that, for larger residential estates in particular, <a href="https://www.lmw.com.au/media/1369/gold-coast-residential-land-review-october-2016.pdf" target="_blank">demand dictates the rate at which lots are released</a> to market. This is a logical business strategy, but much of the commentary on housing supply fails to acknowledge this.
In the Gold Coast region, for example, where a relatively small number of larger estates provide most of the new residential land, the <a href="https://statistics.qgso.qld.gov.au/profiles/rlda/pdf/DZ4A2J5N7IOXGDVO39YD9X7VBGEUPH6YKQM08T3EY6W1HMYQUQYMKFWPFI5S0CLS8BXP7Z22FVERJ5L56CGAW3NZ9RS96P67HUQPL1S9LDE3LIVLVM2XG9SI2QYEO89X/rlda-profiles#view=fit&amp;pagemode=bookmarks" target="_blank">median price of vacant residential land has remained remarkably stable</a> since the GFC despite large fluctuations in the number of sales. This suggests something other than the standard supply-demand theory is operating.
As noted above, developers of new estates in outer areas can “drip-feed” the market to keep prices up.
For new apartments in established suburbs, off-the-plan sales allow developers to test the market before building. If interest in the apartments at prices set by the developer is insufficient, the project will not go ahead. Of course, there can still be an <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/news/offtheplan-apartments-face-price-falls-as-market-supply-exceeds-demand/" target="_blank">oversupply of apartments</a> if future demand is overestimated.
Planning rule changes won’t make much difference to supply
Markets for residential land are distorted by three main factors:
<ul>
<li>location is very important</li>
<li>land is a not a homogeneous good</li>
<li>developers can influence supply.</li>
</ul>
This means that changing planning rules is unlikely to make much difference to housing supply or affordability. Housing supply can’t readily be increased without direct government construction. Even then developers will be likely to respond by restricting overall housing supply if they can.
With supply restricted, <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/first-home-ownership/submissions/sub199/sub199.pdf" target="_blank">price is significantly influenced by demand factors</a>. These include finance interest rates, tax concessions and buyers’ expectations of future capital gains.
Therefore, policy that focuses on <a href="https://theconversation.com/tax-on-unearned-gains-is-the-missing-piece-of-the-affordable-housing-puzzle-77010" target="_blank">managing demand factors</a> offers much more hope of improving housing affordability than do changes to planning rules.
Brian Feeney, Adjunct Fellow, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Queensland
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/land-makes-the-housing-market-different-so-changing-planning-rules-wont-fix-affordability-107182" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Land makes the housing market different, so changing planning rules won’t fix affordability

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
According to the latest CoreLogic Home Value Index results for October 2018, national dwelling values have fallen by -3.5% over the past year and are -3.5% lower than their peak. 
Although this is a pretty moderate fall it is interesting to take a look at what this means and where values sit historically.  
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/2/national.jpg" alt=""> 
A -3.5% decline in national dwelling values from their peak to October 2018 means that values are now the lowest they’ve been since January 2017.
Given this, if you’ve purchased a property any time since January 2017 it is likely that your property is worth less than you paid for it.
While home owners don’t like to see the value of their assets falling, to put this into perspective values are still 44.8% higher over the past decade and 209.9% higher over the past 20 years.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/2/sydney.jpg" alt=""> 
In Sydney, dwelling values have recorded their largest annual decline since February 1990, falling by -7.4% over the year to October 2018 and now sitting -8.2% lower than their peak in July 2017.  
The Sydney dwelling value index is currently the lowest it has been since September 2016. 
Although values are currently falling, they are still 81.4% higher over the past decade and 220.1% higher over the past 20 years.
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/2/mel.jpg" alt="">
Dwelling values in Melbourne peaked in November 2017 and to October 2018 have fallen by -4.9%.
The Melbourne index is now at its lowest level since March 2017.  Over the 10 years to October 2018, values in Melbourne have increased by 74.7% and they are 295.4% higher over the past 20 years.
Based on this data, most home owners are still ahead however, recent buyers are likely to have seen values slip below the purchase price.
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/2/brisbane.jpg" alt="">
Following a peak in April 2018, Brisbane dwelling values have fallen by -0.3% to October 2018. 
Although falls have only been moderate to date, values are at levels last seen in Brisbane in February 2018. 
A big difference between Brisbane and Sydney and Melbourne is that Brisbane has seen very little value growth over the past decade (16.1%) however, values are 185.3% higher than they were two decades ago.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/2/adelaide.jpg" alt="">
Adelaide dwelling values sit at record high levels as at October 2018.
Although values are continuing to climb the rate of growth is moderate at just 1.8% over the past year.
Like Brisbane, Adelaide has seen very little value growth over the past decade, up by 23.7% with values 198.6% higher over the past two decades.
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/2/perth.jpg" alt="">
Perth’s housing market has been in the midst of a correction since 2014 with dwelling values currently -14.2% lower than their June 2014 peak.
Based on index values, current values are the lowest they’ve been since June 2009. 
This means many recent buyers are in a position whereby the current value is lower than what they paid.
Over the past decade, values in Perth are -1.1% lower however, the previous decade was much stronger for value growth resulting in 20 year growth of 159.0%.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/2/hobart.jpg" alt=""> 
Values have been rising at a rapid rate in Hobart over recent years and although the rate of growth has slowed a little of late, they remain at an historic high level.
Over the past decade, values in Hobart have increased by 42.9% with value growth much stronger over the previous 10 years with an increase of 230.0% over the past two decades.
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/2/darwin.jpg" alt="">
Darwin has seen a substantial correction in housing values over recent years and as at October 2018, values were -23.6% lower than their May 2014 peak.
The last time dwelling values were as low as they are currently was November 2007.
This means anyone that has purchased over the past decade is likely to have a current home value lower than the purchase price.
This is reflected by the fact that values are -3.1% lower over the past decade.
NT housing data is only available from 1999 so over the 19 years to October 2018, values in Darwin are 77.8% higher.
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/2/canberra.jpg" alt="">
Dwelling values in Canberra are continuing to rise and sit at historic high levels however, the rate of growth has slowed of late.  
Over the past 10 years, Canberra dwelling values have lifted 35.4% and over the past 20 years values are up 233.6%.
Although values in Sydney and Melbourne are seeing accelerating rates of decline, in the context of the run-up in values over recent years it has not greatly improved affordability. 
In fact in both cities values have only returned to levels seen a couple of years ago.  
CoreLogic expects values to continue declining over the coming months however, it is unlikely that these falls will make any significant improvement to affordability, especially in the absence of real income growth.
Although, if the declines continue for a number of years we could see a more substantial improvement in affordability as per what has occurred in Perth and Darwin following four years of ongoing value falls.
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Home values are falling, but how much is affordability improving? Cameron Kusher

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GUEST OBSERVATION
No longer pegged as one of the retirement villages of Australia, recent demographic data and interest in Tasmania suggest a change in the air. The seachange phenomenon, once linked to retirees, now involves younger groups, including young families. They are choosing lifestyle advantages associated with regional, coastal locations in a phenomenon that’s not isolated to Tasmania.
Certainly, places such as the Sunbelt Coast around Byron Bay in northern New South Wales have been similar to Tasmania in attracting baby-boomer retirees in search of a seachange. Our research, however, exposes some fundamental changes to this profile. The three largest age groups moving recently to these areas are all under 35. This raises the question: who are the seachangers really?
In addition to the population-related pressures of housing affordability and congestion, Australia is experiencing an ageing population and uneven distributions of people movements around the country. State and federal governments are talking about policies to redistribute people away from rapidly growing places like Sydney and Melbourne towards places experiencing decline or stagnation like South Australia and, until recently, Tasmania. Despite recent announcements of a redistribution strategy to ease big city congestion, without a comprehensive population policy much of the political rhetoric has remained exactly that.
Partly there is little understanding, beyond aggregate data, about how people are responding to population changes and deciding to move. What we do know is that people are moving in ways that our current assumptions about internal migration cannot adequately explain.
Goodbye Sydney, hello Tassie
In Tasmania, the reversal of interstate migration trends and the fastest population growth in almost a decade for the year to March 2018 are getting media attention. However, from a national perspective, the high level of migration out of Australia’s two biggest cities to coastal, regional locations suggests something else is at play.
Sydney is also receiving considerable media coverage of an increase in actual and planned migration from the city. Of the five substate regions (known as SA4s) in Australia with the highest net internal migration losses, four are in Sydney: the Inner South West, Eastern Suburbs, Paramatta and the Inner West.
Housing affordability, traffic and other forms of congestion that affect lifestyle and amenity are often cited as reasons for leaving. While Barnaby Joyce sees migration to places like Tamworth as the solution to crowded cities, it is coastal regions – places like the Gold Coast, the Sunshine Coast and Geelong – that are attracting more Australians than any other area.
Tasmania previously had a reputation for attracting retiring baby boomers with greater housing affordability, lower cost of living and the state’s natural and culinary environment for those seeking an active retirement. Yet a brain drain of youth to the opportunities offered by metropolitan cities had counteracted this trend. The “Mona effect” has changed Tasmania.
Of course, this is not a unique trend. Researchers internationally have explored the counter-urbanisation movement for many decades. Elsewhere, as with Australia, people have long sought to escape stressful and complicated city lives for simpler ones in rural or coastal places.
Internationally, we have seen a rise in so-called lifestyle migration of the middle classes seeking a better way of life. Often they choose non-urban spaces such as rural France and recently climate change “boltholes” for the super rich in places like New Zealand.
Australian seachangers are increasingly young
So who are the recent seachangers in Australia? Using ABS Census of Population and Housing data for 2016, we developed profiles of those who did not live in Tasmania or in the Sunbelt area one year prior.
The largest age group moving to Tasmania was those aged 25 to 29 years (14.0% of all movers), followed by those aged 20 to 24 (11.8%) and then 30 to 34 (10.3%).
Just like Tasmania, the largest age group moving to the Sunbelt was those aged 25 to 29 (12.9%), followed by those aged 20 to 24 (10.5%) and then 30 to 34 (10.2%).
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238236/original/file-20180926-48653-1wzoufn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
Seachangers’ age structure for Tasmania and the Sunbelt. Author calculation using ABS Census of Population and Housing data
The difference between Tasmania and the Sunbelt is the place of origin of these migrants. Both attract a large proportion from overseas (27.0% and 16.2% respectively). For Tasmania, the next biggest groupings relocate from Greater Melbourne (13.8%) or the rest of Queensland (12.6%). For the Sunbelt, large proportions of recent migrants previously lived in Greater Sydney (23.7%), the rest of New South Wales (22.3%), or the rest of Queensland (12.7%).
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238296/original/file-20180927-48662-152elfk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
Seachangers’ place of origin. Author calculations using ABS Census of Population and Housing 2016 data
What’s attracting the new seachangers?
The next important question is why are people moving to places that lack resources and employment? In research we have conducted over a decade now, it is clear no one variable dominates.
The most important factors often repeated to us involve both economic and aesthetic concerns. These include obvious issues like housing affordability, debt (via mortgage), stress and overwork. Other important concerns include risk perceptions of living in the city, bringing up children in simpler settings, experiencing increased quality time due to shorter commutes, and the imagined peacefulness of living in less populated and more aesthetically pleasing environments.
As we shift into a climate-changed environment, we could increasingly see movement for climate reasons. We are mindful that coastal development itself is at odds with this, with houses being built in highly vulnerable areas.
Importantly, with the appointment of a federal minister for cities, urban infrastructure and population and continued talk about overcrowded cities and how to alleviate this, we might want to examine those who are already making a seachange. Despite a recent Grattan Institute study finding that the major cities are “coping” and “adapting” and that much of the counter-narratives are overblown, there is too much anecdotal evidence to ignore that, at the very least, coping is not what people aspire to for their living and work environments. Finding a way to include these accounts in the current debate is crucial to our inevitable transformation into a bigger Australia.
Lisa Denny, Research Fellow - Institute for the Study of Social Change, University of Tasmania
Felicity Picken, Lecturer in Social Sciences, Western Sydney University
Nick Osbaldiston, Senior Lecturer in Sociology, James Cook University
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/meet-the-new-seachangers-now-its-younger-australians-moving-out-of-the-big-cities-103762" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Meet the new seachangers: now it’s younger Australians moving out of the big cities

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Imagine planning a public transport system for a large city by providing one bus at a time on one route that might serve a few dozen people (but nobody knows how many). That is what planning for housing affordability looks like in most Australian capital cities: innovative projects take years to develop and never get scaled up into a system.
Who can we learn from? In July, the lead author returned to three cities comparable to Melbourne that she visited in 2015 – Vancouver, Portland and Toronto – to re-interview key housing actors and review investment and policy changes over the past three years. All have big housing affordability problems, caused by a strong economy and 30 years of largely unregulated speculative housing. A lack of federal government involvement has exacerbated these problems.
But these four cities have recently developed very different approaches to housing systems planning, with increasingly divergent results. Toronto has gone backwards. Vancouver and Portland, though, are reaping the rewards of good metropolitan policy, from which we have drawn ten lessons for Melbourne.
Before we discuss these, let’s take stock of the affordable housing challenge in Melbourne.
Who needs affordable housing, and how much of it?
The Victorian state government has recently defined <a href="https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/policy-and-strategy/affordable-housing" target="_blank">affordable housing incomes and price points</a> for both Greater Melbourne and regional Victoria for households on very low (0-50% of median income), low (50-80%) and moderate (80-120%) incomes. It has enshrined “affordable housing” as an explicit aim in the Planning and Environment Act. <a href="https://engage.vic.gov.au/fairersaferhousing" target="_blank">Better protection for renters</a> has also been developed.
These are great steps, but we need to go further in the next term of government.
The Australian government estimated that <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/research/ongoing/report-on-government-services/2018/housing-and-homelessness/rogs-2018-partg-sectorg-attachment.pdf" target="_blank">142,685 lower-income</a> renter households in Victoria were in housing stress in 2015-16. Over 30% and in many cases over 50% of their income was going to rent or mortgage payments.
Our research team at Transforming Housing has more recently calculated a deficit of <a href="https://theconversation.com/put-unused-and-lazy-land-to-work-to-ease-the-affordable-housing-crisis-102720" target="_blank">164,000</a> affordable housing dwellings. Over 90% of the deficit is in Greater Melbourne.
A simplified version of the price points necessary for households to avoid housing stress (one that leaves out household size and <a href="https://theconversation.com/affordable-housing-is-not-just-about-the-purchase-price-75859" target="_blank">additional costs and risks of poorly located housing</a> on the city fringe) looks like this:
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237830/original/file-20180925-85785-al4fz6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237830/original/file-20180925-85785-al4fz6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
<a class="source" href="/news" target="_blank">Palm, Raynor &amp; Whitzman (2018)</a>, Author provided
Affordable home ownership bears no resemblance to the current market in which the median unit price is well over <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-01/sydney-melbourne-housing-property-market-royal-commission/9713738" target="_blank">$700,000</a>. Median rents are affordable to many moderate-income households, at about $<a href="https://dhhs.vic.gov.au/publications/rental-report" target="_blank">420</a> a week. Whether such housing is available, with a vacancy rate of less than 1%, is another issue, <a href="https://www.sgsep.com.au/news/latest-news/rental-affordability-index-may-2018-results-available-now" target="_blank">particularly for very low-income households</a>.
The Victorian government has a <a href="https://www.planmelbourne.vic.gov.au/" target="_blank">metropolitan planning strategy</a> that states the need for 1.6 million new dwellings between 2017 and 2050. That’s almost 50,000 new homes a year. Using the new definitions, we can calculate ideal ten-year new housing supply targets to meet the needs of all residents of Greater Melbourne.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237834/original/file-20180925-82029-1hcrqn1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/237834/original/file-20180925-82029-1hcrqn1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Author provided
The biggest problem is not overall supply. In the six months from February to July 2018, there were <a href="http://stat.data.abs.gov.au/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=BA_GCCSA" target="_blank">28,602</a> dwelling unit approvals in Greater Melbourne. At that rate there would be 572,040 new units by 2028, which is more than the total need projected by Plan Melbourne.
The problem is that the price points of these dwellings are beyond the means of 64% of households – 456,295 would need to be affordable, appropriately sized and located to meet most people’s needs. <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/pretty-vacant-20000-properties-empty-across-inner-melbourne-20171109-gzi55w" target="_blank">All too many</a> will be bought as investments and remain vacant.
Plan Melbourne doesn’t provide targets for affordability, size or location. This is left to six subregions, each with four to eight local governments, which have not produced these reports in the 18 months since the plan was released.
Affordable housing targets that exist in state documents are woefully inadequate. <a href="https://www.vic.gov.au/system/user_files/Documents/housing/FINAL%20PDF%20DTF046_Q_housing01.pdf" target="_blank">Homes for Victorians</a> has an overall target of 4,700 new or renovated social housing units over the five-year period 2017-22.
An <a href="https://www.vic.gov.au/affordablehousing/housing-supply-and-planning/inclusionary-housing" target="_blank">inclusionary zoning</a> pilot on government-owned land might yield “as many as” 100 social housing units in five years. <a href="https://dhhs.vic.gov.au/public-housing-renewal-program" target="_blank">Public housing renewal</a> on nine sites is expected to yield at least a 10% uplift, or 110 extra social housing units, in return for sale of government land to private developers. This is certainly not maximizing social benefit.
What can we learn from Vancouver and Portland?
Although <a href="https://vancouver.ca/files/cov/2018-housing-vancouver-annual-progress-report-and-data-book.pdf" target="_blank">Vancouver</a> has huge housing affordability issues, it has been able to scale up housing delivery for very low-income households – about 15 times as much social and affordable housing as Melbourne over the past three years. Both <a href="https://vancouver.ca/files/cov/rental-incentive-guidelines.pdf" target="_blank">Vancouver</a> and <a href="https://www.pdx.edu/sba/sites/www.pdx.edu.sba/files/01-Missing-Condos-Seidman.pdf" target="_blank">Portland</a> have ambitious private sector <a href="https://theconversation.com/build-to-rent-could-be-the-missing-piece-of-the-affordable-housing-puzzle-82320" target="_blank">build-to-rent</a> programs, with thousands of new affordable rental dwellings near transport lines.
Both cities have influenced senior governments. Canada is investing C$40 billion (A$42.6b) over the next ten years in its <a href="https://www.placetocallhome.ca/pdfs/Canada-National-Housing-Strategy.pdf" target="_blank">National Housing Strategy</a>.
In contrast, Toronto has had a net loss of hundreds of units of social housing. This is due to disastrous lack of leadership at local and state (provincial) levels.
Our new report highlights 10 lessons for the Victorian government:
<ol>
<li>
Establish a clear and shared definition of “affordable housing”. Enabling its provision should be stated as a goal of planning. This has been done.
</li>
<li>
Calculate housing need. We have up-to-date calculations, broken down by singles, couples and other households, as well as income groups, in this report
</li>
<li>
Set housing targets. Ideally, you would want a target of 456,295 new units affordable to households on very low, low and moderate incomes. Both <a href="http://www.infrastructurevictoria.com.au/30-year-strategy" target="_blank">Infrastructure Victoria</a> and the <a href="http://everybodyshome.com.au/" target="_blank">Everybody’s Home</a> campaign have suggested a more attainable ten-year target: 30,000 affordable homes for very low and low-income people over the next decade. This would allow systems and partnerships between state and local government, investors and non-profit and private housing developers to begin to scale up to meet need.
</li>
<li>
Set local targets. The state government, which is responsible for metropolitan planning, should be setting local government housing targets, based on infrastructure capacity, and then helping to meet these targets (and improve infrastructure in areas where homes increase). We have developed a simple tool we call <a href="https://www.arcgis.com/home/webmap/viewer?webmap=98830487b4d348de8bd81bba1669a0c2&amp;extent=144.8533,-37.8711,145.1062,-37.7585" target="_blank">HART: Housing Access Rating Tool</a>. It scores every land parcel in Greater Melbourne according to access to services: public transport, schools, bulk-billing health centres, etc.
</li>
<li>
Identify available sites. We have mapped over 250 government-owned sites, not including public housing estates, that could accommodate well over 30,000 well-located affordable homes, with a goal of at least 40% available to very low-income households. Aside from leasing government land for a peppercorn rent, which could cut construction costs by up to 30%, a number of other mechanisms could quickly release affordable housing. Launch Housing, the state government and Maribyrnong council recently developed <a href="https://theconversation.com/portable-units-and-temporary-leases-free-up-vacant-land-for-urgent-housing-needs-86753" target="_blank">57 units of modular housing</a> on vacant government land, linked to services for homeless people. The City of Vancouver and the British Columbia provincial government recently scaled up a similar pilot project to <a href="https://vancouver.ca/people-programs/temporary-modular-housing.aspx" target="_blank">600 dwellings built over six months</a>.
</li>
<li>
Create more market rental housing. <a href="https://vancouver.ca/people-programs/creating-new-market-rental-housing.aspx" target="_blank">Vancouver</a> has enabled over 7,000 well-located moderately affordable private rental apartments near transport lines in the past five years, using revenue-neutral mechanisms. <a href="https://www.pdx.edu/sba/sites/www.pdx.edu.sba/files/01-Missing-Condos-Seidman.pdf">Portland</a> developers have almost entirely moved from speculative condominium development to more affordable build-to-rent in recent years.
</li>
<li>
Mandate inclusionary zoning. This approach, presently being piloted, could be scaled up to cover all well-located new developments. <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.portlandoregon.gov/bps/71274" target="_blank">Portland</a> recently introduced mandatory provision of 20% of new housing developments affordable to low-income households or 10% to very low-income households. If applied in Melbourne, this measure alone could meet the 30,000 target (but not the current 164,000 deficit or 456,295 projected need).
</li>
<li>
Dampen speculation at the high end of the market. This would help deal with the oversupply of <a href="https://www.economy.com/dismal/analysis/datapoints/292072/A-Tax-on-Luxury-Homes/" target="_blank">luxury housing</a>. <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-new-bc-tax-on-high-value-homes-goes-largely-unnoticed/" target="_blank">Taxes on luxury homes, vacant properties and foreign ownership</a> could help fund affordable housing.
</li>
<li>
Have one agency to drive these changes. The impact of an agency like the <a href="http://vaha.ca/" target="_blank">Vancouver Affordable Housing Agency</a> is perhaps the most important lesson. The Victorian government has over a dozen departments and agencies engaged in some aspect of affordable housing delivery. We suggest repurposing the <a href="https://vpa.vic.gov.au/" target="_blank">Victorian Planning Authority</a> with an explicit mandate to develop and deliver housing affordability, size diversity and locational targets set by the next state government.
</li>
<li>
A systems approach is essential to build capacity. It will take time, coordination and political will for local governments to meet targets, non-profit housing providers to scale up delivery and management of social housing, private developers and investors to take advantage of affordability opportunities, and state government to plan for affordable housing. Eradicating homelessness and delivering affordable housing for all Victorians is possible. But it needs a systems approach.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/102852/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
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Carolyn Whitzman, Professor of Urban Planning, University of Melbourne
Katrina Raynor, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Transforming Housing Project, University of Melbourne
Matthew Palm, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Transforming Housing Research Network, University of Melbourne
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/ten-lessons-from-cities-that-have-risen-to-the-affordable-housing-challenge-102852" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Lessons from cities that have risen to the affordable housing challenge

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Following a review of the New South Wales Residential Tenancies Act 2010 in 2016 and extended consultations, the NSW government has introduced a number of reforms to parliament. Debate is expected to occur this week. However, without reform to current eviction proceedings, many housing advocates have expressed concern that these generally good proposals will have little effect. Today, 45 housing researchers from a range of disciplines have signed the following open letter.
We are academics who research and teach about housing. We come from a range of disciplines – for example law, economics, social sciences, planning – and many of us have worked variously with housing providers, tenants’ groups and government agencies on housing issues. We have in common commitment to the principle that everyone should have a secure, affordable home of decent standard, whether they own or rent.
Too often, however, our rental housing sector fails to deliver on this principle. There are numerous reasons for this; one of them is the legal insecurity of tenants under current New South Wales residential tenancy laws. In particular, the provision for landlords to give termination notices, with no grounds, at the end of a fixed-term tenancy or during a continuing tenancy is contrary to genuine security.
“No grounds” termination notices give cover for bad reasons for seeking termination, such as retaliation and discrimination. The prospect that a “no grounds” termination notice may be given hangs over all tenancies, discouraging tenants from raising concerns with agents and landlords and undermining the legal rights otherwise provided for by their leases and the legislation.
The deficiencies of our current laws are becoming worse, as more households rent, and rent for longer into their lives. About 32% of NSW households rent and this proportion is growing. Over the five years to 2016, 63% of the net growth in the number of NSW households was households in rental housing. And 42% of NSW renter households include children.
Our deficient current laws are also increasingly out of step with tenancy laws in comparable jurisdictions. Many European countries, as well as most of the Canadian provinces and the largest US cities, do not provide for “no grounds” terminations by landlords.
Last year, Scotland reformed its tenancy laws to remove provisions for “no grounds” terminations and replace them with prescribed reasonable grounds for termination. In Australia, Tasmania has for some years not allowed “no grounds” terminations of continuing tenancies. This month, the Victorian Parliament amended its residential tenancies legislation to remove provision for “no grounds” termination notices for continuing tenancies and for fixed-term tenancies, except at the end of the first fixed term.
We call on the NSW state government to improve security for renters, by legislating to end no-grounds termination by landlords and providing instead for a prescribed set of reasonable grounds for terminations.
These reasonable grounds would include grounds already in the legislation, such as rent arrears and other breaches by the tenant, and sale of the premises, as well as new grounds, such as where the landlord needs the premises for their own housing, and where the premises are to be renovated, demolished or changed to a non-residential use.
The prescribed reasonable grounds should have different notice periods, reflecting their different degrees of urgency and priority. Proceedings on notices should go, as they currently do, to the NSW Civil and Administrative Tribunal, and the tribunal should determine whether the ground exists and whether termination is justified in all the circumstances.
This reform would make all tenants feel more secure, without unduly restricting landlords in reasonable uses of their properties. The only inconvenience would be to the retaliators, the discriminators and those who cannot cope with even a modest level of accountability. If the reform prompted these landlords to leave the sector, they would sell to a new home owner or to a more professionally minded landlord – either of which is to the good.
There is more to be done across a range of policy areas to improve the functioning of all aspects of our housing system. We need more accessible home ownership, a differently structured and more professional market rental sector and a revitalised social housing sector. These changes require a comprehensive housing policy, coordinated across areas and levels of government and carried out over a long term.
But, in tenancy law, the single most important reform is ending “no grounds” termination by landlords. And the parliament could do it now.
Signatories
Dr Chris Martin, Research Fellow, Faculty of Built Environment, University of New South Wales
Professor Brendan Edgeworth, Faculty of Law, University of New South Wales
Professor Chris Gibson, Human Geography, University of Wollongong
Professor Keith Jacobs, Director, Housing Community Research Unit, University of Tasmania
Professor Alan Morris, Institute for Public Policy and Governance, University of Technology, Sydney
Professor Kath Hulse, Director Centre for Urban Transitions, Swinburne University of Technology
Professor Hal Pawson, Housing Research and Policy, University of New South Wales
Professor Pauline McGuirk, Director Australian Centre for Culture, Environment, Society and Space, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Wollongong
Professor Peter Phibbs, Urban Planning, The University of Sydney
Professor Bill Randolph, Faculty of Built Environment, University of New South Wales
Professor Eileen Webb, Faculty of Business and Law, Curtin University
Adjunct Professor Michael Darcy, School of Social Sciences and Psychology, Western Sydney University
Associate Professor Hazel Easthope, Faculty of Built Environment, University of New South Wales
Associate Professor Daphne Habibis, School of Social Sciences, University of Tasmania
Associate Professor Kurt Iveson, Urban Geography, The University of Sydney
Associate Professor Kristian Ruming, Department of Geography and Planning, Macquarie University
Associate Professor Judith Yates, School of Economics, The University of Sydney
Dr Gareth Bryant, Political Economy, The University of Sydney
Dr Nicole Cook, Lecturer in Human Geography, University of Wollongong
Dr Louise Crabtree, Senior Research Fellow, Institute for Culture and Society, Western Sydney University
Dr Laura Crommelin, Research Lecturer, Faculty of Built Environment, University of New South Wales
Dr Tanja Dreher, Associate Professor, School of Arts and Media, University of New South Wales
Dr Christina Ho, Senior Lecturer, Social &amp; Political Sciences, University of Technology, Sydney
Dr Justine Humphry, Lecturer in Digital Cultures, Department of Media and Communications, The University of Sydney
Dr Edgar Liu, Senior Research Fellow, Faculty of Built Environment, University of New South Wales
Dr Sophia Maalsen, IB Fell Post-Doctoral Research Fellow, Faculty of Architecture, Design and Planning, The University of Sydney
Dr Daniel Ooi, Research Fellow, Victoria University
Dr Justine Lloyd, Senior Lecturer, Department of Sociology, Macquarie University
Dr Jean Parker, Research Associate, Department of Gender and Culture Studies, The University of Sydney
Dr Madeleine Pill, Researcher, Department of Government and International Relations, The University of Sydney
Dr Emma Power, Senior Research Fellow, Institute for Culture and Society, Western Sydney University
Dr Dallas Rogers, Program Director, Master of Urbanism, The University of Sydney
Dr Ben Spies-Butcher, Senior Lecturer, Economy and Society, Macquarie University
Dr Adam Stebbing, Director of Bachelor of Social Science, Department of Sociology, Macquarie University
Dr Amanda Tattersall, Post-Doctoral Fellow, Henry Halloran Trust, The University of Sydney
Dr Lawrence Troy, Research Fellow, Faculty of Built Environment, University of New South Wales
Dr Robert Mowbray, Older Persons Project Officer, Tenants’ Union NSW
Deb Batterham, Researcher, Launch Housing
Zahra Nasreen, Researcher, Department of Geography and Planning, Macquarie University
Pratichi Chatterjee, PhD Candidate, Faculty of Science, The University of Sydney
Sophie-May Kerr, PhD Candidate, University of Wollongong
Craig Lyons, PhD Candidate, School of Geography and Sustainable Communities, University of Wollongong
Gemma McKinnon, Researcher, University of New South Wales
Bill Swannie, Academic, College of Law and Justice, Victoria University
Alistair Sisson, PhD Candidate &amp; Research Assistant, School of Geosciences, The University of Sydney<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/103825/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
John Watson, Section Editor: Cities + Policy, The Conversation
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/an-open-letter-on-rental-housing-reform-103825" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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