Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Housing Affordability

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Hobart has jumped further ahead of Sydney as the least affordable city to rent in Australia, the latest release of the Rental Affordability Index (RAI) has found.
Even households on average incomes in Hobart are now at risk of rental stress. 
“Tasmania’s capital city is in a housing gridlock,” Ellen Witte, Partner at SGS Economics and Planning said.
“Rental affordability in Hobart dived even lower during winter. Working families are now facing rental stress with the average income household now paying 30% of income on rent. This means these households are unable to save sufficiently for a deposit on a mortgage.”
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/29/hobart%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/29/hobart%201.jpg" alt=""> 
Rental affordability in some other Australian cities, including Sydney, has improved marginally. In many cases, however, the gains have not flowed through to low-income households for whom affordability remains severe. 
Andrew Cairns, Chief Executive Officer at Community Sector Banking, said: “Looking beneath the headline figures, rental stress is affecting the majority of very low-income households in Australia. Pensioners and single parents are hit particularly hard.”
The RAI is an indicator of the price of rents relative to household incomes based on new rental agreements. It is released biannually by National Shelter, Community Sector Banking, SGS Economics &amp; Planning and the Brotherhood of St Laurence.
A RAI of 100 and below shows that households would be required to spend at least 30% of their income on rent. A RAI of 100-120 indicates households are facing moderately unaffordable rents. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/29/hobart%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/29/hobart%202.jpg" alt="">
Greater Hobart reached a RAI of 101 in June 2018, meaning median rents in metropolitan Hobart are now unaffordable, even to median income rental households. Greater Sydney has a RAI of 113, which is also considered moderately unaffordable.  
The least affordable suburbs in Sydney include Milsons Point, Kirribilli, St Ives Chase, St Ives, Pyrmont, Point Piper, Edgecliff, Darling Point and Rozelle.
In Melbourne, suburbs further from the centre that previously had acceptable rents have become unaffordable in the past 12 months, including Keilor in the north-west, Gisborne in the Macedon Ranges and Diamond Creek and Warrandyte in the north-east.
The least affordable suburbs in Melbourne include Brighton East, Albert Park, Middle Park, Port Melbourne, Beaumaris and Cromer where an average income household would expect to pay 30-38% of their income on rent. 
Adrian Pisarski, Executive Officer, National Shelter, said: “The situation facing the nation’s renters remains poor with little or no improvement for low and moderate income renters in our capitals and poor affordability in our regions.”
“It is clear to National Shelter we need a National Housing Strategy to help improve the dire situation far too many renters across Australia experience,” Pisarski said. 
“Compared to improvement in purchase affordability, renters are doing it tough. While we have many housing markets in Australia, none of them are positive for renters. We need a multi-party commitment to improve rental affordability over the long term.” 
Conny Lenneberg, Executive Director of the Brotherhood of St Laurence, said: “There is a housing crisis in Australia and this report starkly shows those who can least afford to pay are paying the highest price. 
“High rents are pushing unemployed people on very low Newstart payments into deeper poverty. Jobseekers are forced out to the urban fringes of our cities to find suitable accommodation but that places them far from jobs and public transport connections. Housing cost pressures mean some renters on Centrelink are being pushed into homelessness. We need to raise Newstart and its very modest rental supplement as a priority.” 
Lenneberg said there was also an urgent need to increase subsidised social housing. “The cost of renting in the private market puts many low-income single parents, usually women, under extreme pressure. Many parents forgo basics such as food and paying household bills to keep a roof over their family.”
Pensioners struggling
Rental affordability for single pensioners is alarmingly poor across the nation. Single pensioners are facing severely unaffordable and extremely unaffordable rents in all Australian capitals and almost every regional area. Single pensioners would have to move to regional South Australia to find accommodation that would not force them into rental stress.
Pensioner couples would also struggle to make ends meet in all Australia capitals, and every regional area except NSW, Victoria, SA, and Tasmania. 
No relief for low-income households 
Rental stress has become so entrenched and severe for low income households that the recent improved affordability in some cities has not brought relief. 
More than a million households need some form of housing assistance, while 45% of low-income households experience rental stress. 
“We are particularly worried about single parents with children,” Witte said.
“There are 110,000 single-parent, low-income households out there living in rental stress and 82% of those households are single mothers. The majority earn $41,600 per annum or less. In Sydney they would be paying about 70% of income on rent, which is clearly unsustainable.
“There are about 244,000 low income, single-person households experiencing rental stress in Australia. The majority – 57% – are single men. More than half of single males renting earn less than $36,400 a year. They would be paying 68% of their income on rent if they wanted to live in Greater Sydney.
“No matter how efficient a housing market operates, there is always a need for social and affordable housing, like there is a need for investment in roads, public transport, education and health. Over the last few decades we have seen a consistently deteriorating level of government investment in social and affordable housing. While new national policy has a focus on providing affordable finance there remains a gap between the cost of providing housing and the returns of social rents. 
“The Government needs to bridge the financial gap and grow social housing supply. Inclusionary zoning is particularly well suited to grow the social and affordable housing stock close to jobs and opportunities.” 
Witte called for a a tax regime that treats housing as place of residence first and as investment objective second. 
“The current tax system does the opposite, driving people out of home ownership,” she said. “While more households than ever rent, the rental market still relies on the inefficient and ineffective delivery of rental housing through mum and dad investors. We need large-scale institutional investment in the rental sector providing secure and quality housing for the long term.” 
Sydney still unaffordable to many
Rents continue to be unaffordable even for working, median income households in Sydney and low-income households continue to be the worst off in Sydney.
“Greater Sydney is growing fast – especially in the Western Sydney City Deal area – and so is its need for social and affordable housing,” said Witte.
Growing income inequality is driving demand for social and affordable housing. Western Sydney councils face a shortfall of more than 35,000 social and affordable dwellings. This will increase to 64,000 dwellings by 2036. 
A vision needed for Hobart 
Even households on moderate incomes households would now be paying 30% of their income to access a rental in Hobart. 
Rental stress is the everyday reality for the majority of single parents and single person households on low incomes. A single part-time working mother would have to pay 42% of her income on rent. On top of that come costs for child care and education.
“While the government has implemented some initiatives, no comprehensive vision or structural change has been announced,” Witte said.
“The city needs a comprehensive housing strategy with commitment and initiatives from both state and local government to address the issue.
“These initiatives should include the release of more Government-owned land for housing, substantial inclusion of affordable housing in new development, the trial of new planning measures to boost affordable housing and capacity building in the construction industry.
“Short-term rental accommodation needs to be curbed until the rental affordability situation improves.”
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Singles, pensioners and families on low incomes are struggling with affordability: RAI

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The decade ending in June 2019 has seen the national median dwelling value rise from $382,650 to $516,710, an annual increase of 3.0%. At the same time, household incomes (according to estimates from the ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods) have risen at the annual pace of 3.1%, up from $59,020 per annum in 2009 to $79,872 in 2019. Over the same period, average mortgage rates (according to RBA statistics) fell from 5.1% in 2009 to 4.1% in June this year.
The wash up from these movements is that housing affordability, based on the ratio of dwelling values to household incomes, is broadly unchanged across Australia and households are generally dedicating less of their income towards servicing a new mortgage.
Nationally, the ratio of dwelling values to household incomes has varied over the past decade, moving through a low of 6.1 in late 2012 to a recent high of 7.0 in early 2018. In June 2019 the ratio was recorded at 6.5 which is equivalent to where it was in 2009.
A ratio of 6.5 simply means the typical Australian household is spending 6.5 times their gross annual household income in order to purchase the typical dwelling. While the national reading is the same as it was ten years ago, five of the eight capital cities and four of the seven non-capital city regions have recorded an improvement in the ratio of dwelling values to household incomes. The lowest ratio can be found in Darwin where the typical household is spending only 3.4 times their gross annual household income to purchase a dwelling (down from 5.6 ten years ago).
While most areas have seen housing values become more affordable relative to incomes, some areas have seen affordability worsen. Sydney, Melbourne and Hobart have seen housing values rise at a faster rate than household incomes which has eroded affordability.
The typical Sydney household is now spending 8.2 times their gross annual household income in order to purchase the median value dwelling, up from 6.6 ten years ago. Melbourne households are spending 7.2 times their annual income (up from 6.4 in 2009) and Hobart households are spending 6.5 times (up from 5.9).
Across the regional areas of Australia, the only areas where the ratio of dwelling values to household incomes has worsened is Regional NSW (6.6 in 2009 / 7.0 in 2019) and Regional Victoria (4.9 in 2009 / 5.6 in 2019). It’s a similar story with mortgage serviceability.
\Despite mortgage rates falling to the lowest level since at least the 1950’s, households in Sydney, Melbourne and Hobart are generally dedicating a larger proportion of their incomes towards servicing a new mortgage than they were in 2009.
Based on the proportion of household income required to service a new 80% LVR mortgage, Sydney households are dedicating 43.7% of their gross annual household income on mortgage repayments compared with 37.7% ten years ago. When mortgage rates were around 9% in early 2008, Sydney households were dedicating a much larger 54.2% to service a mortgage.
Melbourne households are dedicating 38.4% on average to service a new 80% LVR mortgage (up from 36.2% in 2009) and Hobart households spend an average of 34.3% of their income on a new mortgage (33.8% ten years ago). The smallest portion of income dedicated to new loan repayments is in Darwin at just 17.9% of income.
Although housing affordability has worsened relative to ten years ago in Sydney and Melbourne, the decline in home values together with a subtle rise in household incomes and lower mortgage rates has seen affordability and serviceability record a temporary improvement in these areas.
Since June, dwelling values have surged higher while income growth has remained sluggish, implying that the improvement in housing affordability that has been delivered via a fall in home values is now being eroded.
Longer term strategies for improving housing affordability should include both supply and demand side considerations, as well as taxation reform. On the supply side, ensuring infrastructure programs, land release and town planning policies are keeping pace with population growth is important.
On the demand side, population growth drives housing demand, as do stimulus measures such as first home buyer grants and tax concessions.
Incentivising jobs growth and infrastructure improvements in more affordable areas would support a redirection of population growth into areas where housing prices are more achievable.
Removing stamp duty would also help to improve housing affordability and housing mobility by lowering the transactional costs associated with purchasing a home.
TIM LAWLESS is the CoreLogic Head of Research
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tlawless-5VLUrbAk9s

Housing affordability has improved over the past decade across most of Australia: Tim Lawless

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Property prices could reach record highs in the first half of 2020 if they continue at current rates, according to research by CoreLogic and ANZ.
Melbourne and Sydney house values have risen six per cent and 5.3 per cent since May.
CoreLogic's head of research Tim Lawless says there's more urgency coming back in to the market.
"If this trend continues, we could see property prices reach new highs early next year," Lawless said.
CoreLogic and ANZ's research, which suggests housing affordability peaked in June after the national 8.4 per cent decline from 2017 ended, shows dwelling values and household incomes at the closest levels since late 2013.
As of June national dwelling values were 6.5 times higher than gross annual household incomes.
Dwelling value to household income ratio: CoreLogic ANZ
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/11/13/CoreLogic%20ANZ%20dwelling%20to%20income%20ratio.jpg" alt="">
Since June however, dwelling prices have outweighed the growth in income, suggested ANZ senior economist Felicity Emmett.
"Although affordability has improved following a downturn in housing values, June 2019 marked a turning point as dwelling values again began to outpace household incomes across capital cities, with the exception of Perth and Darwin," Emmett noted.
“The rebound in prices is being driven by a number of factors including record low interest rates, easier access to credit and more certainty around tax arrangements,” Emmett said.
Lawless said that despite the dwelling value jump in the last few months there is still good news for prospective buyers and renters.
"The research shows households are now dedicating the smallest proportion of their incomes towards paying a new mortgage since early 2004 and renters are spending the lowest proportion of their income on accommodation since 2007," Lawless said.
“This year, we have also seen an increase in the number of areas where it is cheaper to buy than rent, which can be attributed to the lowest interest rates since the 1950’s together with lower housing prices relative to the market peak."
The downturn has seen the number of years to save for a deposit decline drastically, back to 2014 levels, across the country.
Time to save for a deposit: CoreLogic ANZ 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Housing affordability peaked in June, prices could reach record highs again in 2020: ANZ CoreLogic

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The cost of land is one of the main components in determining the price of a new home, according to HIA Economist Angela Lillicrap.
The recent HIA-CoreLogic Residential Land Report provided updated information on sales activity in 46 markets across Australia, including the six state capital cities.
“While land prices have come down during 2019, over the last decade the price of new residential land per square metre in Sydney has doubled and more than doubled in Melbourne,” added Ms Lillicrap.
“A shortage of land is one of the factors that has driven home prices to increase over the past decade. The process of making land ‘shovel ready’ can often last a decade, therefore, responding to shortages cannot be met with increased supply in the short term. An adequate supply of land is required to avoid a deterioration in affordability.
“If the Australian dream of home ownership is to remain achievable, governments must work with industry to ensure that there is an appropriate supply of land. Improving the monitoring and reporting of the land supply pipeline will enable government and industry to make well informed decisions,” concluded Ms Lillicrap.
CoreLogic’s head of research, Tim Lawless, highlighted that land values had slumped across the most expensive markets over the past year. 
“The rate per square metre of vacant land in Sydney was down 12.6% over the 12 months ending June 2019 and Melbourne land prices were down 7.6%. 
Prices were also down in Adelaide (-12.0%) and Brisbane (-4.6%). 
Lower land prices should provide further support for housing affordability in these markets, however in Hobart and Perth land prices were higher.
“Hobart land prices have rocketed 20.3% higher over the year ending June reflecting tight supply against a backdrop of strong demand. 
"Despite the significant rise, Hobart is still showing the lowest median land price amongst the capital cities at $180,000 and the largest median land area at 624sqm.”
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Sydney vacant land rate per square metre down 12.6% annually: HIA

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Housing affordability will deteriorate throughout 2020, according to a report from Moody's Investors Service.
Housing affordability for new mortgage borrowers - measured as the proportion of household income borrowers need to meet repayments on new mortgages – improved on average in Australia over the year to September 2019.
I noted that mortgage interest rate cuts and housing price declines were responsible. 
However, affordability has deteriorated since July 2019 because of a housing price rebound, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne. 
The study predicts that housing affordability will deteriorate over 2020 as housing prices continue to increase. 
The risk of delinquencies and defaults in new mortgages will increase as affordability deteriorates, a credit negative for Australian residential mortgage-backed securities, Moody's said.
On average, Australian households with two income earners needed 24.6% of their monthly income to meet monthly mortgage repayments on new loans in September 2019, down from 26.7% in September 2018 but up from 24.2% in July 2019. 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/11/4/price%20graph.png" alt="">
Australian housing prices decreased an average 1.6% over the year to September 2019, while average household income increased 2.5% and average mortgage interest rates declined by 0.4 percentage point after the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered the official cash rate in June and July 2019. 
The RBA cut the cash rate further in October, which is positive for affordability, however the study predicts that this will be outweighed by rising housing prices over 2020. 
Housing prices increased 1.7% in the two months to September. 
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wdavis-8cCN98p7xp

Moody's Investors Service predicts that housing affordability will deteriorate in 2020

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GUEST OBSERVATION 
Low-income tenants in Australia are increasingly likely to be trapped in rental stress for years.
<a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/research/completed/renhters/private-renters.pdf" target="_blank">New evidence</a> from the Productivity Commission shows almost half of such “rent-burdened” private tenants are likely to remain stuck in this situation for at least half a decade.
Rental stress is where a low-income tenant faces housing costs that leave them without enough income for food, clothing and other essentials. The scale of the problem – <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/1370.0%7E2010%7EChapter%7ERental%20stress%20(5.4.2.1)" target="_blank">commonly defined as when rent eats up more than 30% of income</a> – is usually presented as a “point in time” or snapshot statistic.
As the Productivity Commission report reveals, the snapshot number in this situation has increased from 48% of low-income renters in 1995 to 54% in 2018. That’s around 1.5 million people pushed into poverty by high housing costs.
For some, of course, this will be only a temporary problem. On this basis, it is sometimes argued that concerns over Australia’s high rate of rental stress are overstated.
However, the Productivity Commission report, <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/research/completed/renters/private-renters.pdf" target="_blank">Vulnerable Private Renters: Evidence and Options</a>, highlights longitudinal survey evidence showing that a low-income tenant’s experience of rental stress is increasingly likely to be long-term – not a passing problem. As the commission notes: "[…] a growing number of households find themselves stuck in rental stress."
What is the evidence for this?
This conclusion stems from a comparison of two different tenant cohorts experiencing rental stress as revealed by survey data for 2001 and 2013. Less than a third (31%) of the 2001 cohort remained in stress five years later. But almost half (46%) of the 2013 cohort were.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296994/original/file-20191015-98657-1evkw2.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296994/original/file-20191015-98657-1evkw2.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
While many people exit rental stress quickly, the proportion of private. low-income renters in long-term rental stress has increased significantly. <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/research/completed/renters/private-renters.pdf" target="_blank">Vulnerable Private Renters: Evidence and Options, Productivity Commission</a>, <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY</a>
So, it’s not just that more low-income earners are paying unaffordable rents at a particular point in time. This is increasingly a situation that affected private tenants cannot escape.
Beyond the obvious welfare impacts, <a href="https://cityfutures.be.unsw.edu.au/documents/515/Full_Report_Final_edited_logos.pdf" target="_blank">recent work</a> argues that excessive rent burdens may also damage human capital and, as a result, reduce economic productivity.
The commission’s findings seem to suggest the ongoing restructuring of Australia’s labour market and housing system is eroding socioeconomic and/or housing mobility. The report notes the significant fall in the numbers who manage to move from renting to owning – from 13.6% of renters in the period 2001-04 to 10.0% from 2013-16.
Perhaps slightly more surprising is the commission’s explanation for the rising rate of (point in time) rental stress for all low-income tenants. According to the report, this results not from increasing unaffordability for the private renter cohort specifically, but from the growing dominance of private rental housing as the tenure in which low-income households live.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296993/original/file-20191015-98661-b2ne0v.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296993/original/file-20191015-98661-b2ne0v.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
The number of private renters has grown as the proportions of owner occupiers and public housing tenants have fallen. <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/research/completed/renters/private-renters.pdf" target="_blank">Vulnerable Private Renters: Evidence and Options, Productivity Commission</a>, <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY</a>
This, of course, results from the post-1990s <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-needs-to-reboot-affordable-housing-funding-not-scrap-it-72861" target="_blank">failure of Australian governments</a> to expand the supply of social housing to match population growth. By 2018, well over two-thirds (71%) of low-income tenants were <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/research/completed/renters/private-renters.pdf" target="_blank">renting in the (relatively expensive) private market</a> – rather than from a (rent-limiting) social landlord. Back in 1996, barely half (52%) of them were renting privately.
What does this mean for policy?
The report presents some useful discussion of possible policy directions.
For example, while dismissing rent control as liable to advantage existing tenants at the expense of potential tenants, the report is implicitly critical of residential tenancy laws in most states and territories.
The report advances the broad case that <a href="https://theconversation.com/an-open-letter-on-rental-housing-reform-103825" target="_blank">tenancy law reforms</a>, “if well designed”, can enhance tenant welfare “without substantially increasing the cost of renting”. Longer notice periods are particularly favoured because these will “provid[e] vulnerable families more time to find new accommodation and prepare for the move”.
Slightly more controversially, the commission strongly hints at support for outlawing no grounds evictions. The landlord power to end a tenancy without any need to justify the move persists across most states and territories. Discussing this power the report states:
"It increases the bargaining power of landlords […] and decreases that of tenants. Landlords’ incentives to carry out obligations, such as repairs and maintenance, decrease when no grounds evictions are available, since this provides them with an avenue to terminate leases in the event of a dispute."
However, having highlighted a private rental affordability problem that is both growing in scale and becoming demonstrably more entrenched, the report is timid on solutions beyond modestly improving tenancy conditions.
It argues in general terms for an increase in <a href="https://www.dss.gov.au/housing-support/programmes-services/commonwealth-rent-assistance" target="_blank">Commonwealth Rent Assistance</a> but – beyond tentatively floating a 10% rise in maximum payments – advances no specific proposal.
Expanding the social housing stock as part of the broad-ranging housing strategy Australia badly needs is scorned as “an expensive option”. This is a reference to the narrowly scoped analysis in the commission’s <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/human-services/reforms/report/human-services-reforms.pdf" target="_blank">2017 Human Services report</a>. It favoured market solutions to provide low-income housing – on efficiency grounds.
The “expensive option” assertion is out of line with the more broadly framed analysis of the Productivity Commission’s predecessor, the Industry Commission. The latter <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id:%22publications/tabledpapers/HPP032016005137%22;src1=sm1" target="_blank">concluded</a>:
"Public housing and <a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/policy/ahuri-briefs/what-is-head-leasing" target="_blank">headleasing</a> [when social housing providers sublease private rental properties] are assessed to be more cost-effective than cash payments and housing allowances."
While the Industry Commission report admittedly dates from 1993, the subsequent failure of overwhelmingly private provision for low-income renters surely presents compelling reasons to revisit the investment case for social housing.
Hal Pawson, Associate Director - City Futures - Urban Policy and Strategy, City Futures Research Centre, Housing Policy and Practice, UNSW.
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/growing-numbers-of-renters-are-trapped-for-years-in-homes-they-cant-afford-125216" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Growing numbers of renters are trapped for years in homes they can’t afford

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Australia’s fifth largest bank, ING, has announced that it is cutting home loan interest rates by 0.15%.
The bank’s interest rates will drop for both new and existing customers, and will be effective from October 16.
The cuts take ING’s lowest variable interest rate for new customers to 2.99%, for home loans over $1 million, and 3.03% for loans under $1 million.
A total of 26 lenders have announced rate cuts for their customers three days after the Reserve Bank cut the official cash rate to 0.75%.
The average interest rate reduction across the owner-occupier home loan market is currently 0.17% and just five lenders are passing on the full 0.25% RBA cut.
The chief executive of RateCity.com.au, Paul Marshall, said there are still dozens of lenders yet to announce what cuts they’ll make.
“With the cash rate now below one%, banks are cautiously considering what to pass onto home loan customers, while still appeasing shareholders and savers,” Marshall said.
“If your bank hasn’t declared their hand, you should call, email or even tweet them into action.”
 
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Australia’s fifth largest bank, ING, announces interest rate cuts for home loans

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Most Australians are spending more of their income on housing than they used to, but low-income households are being squeezed the hardest.
Many are in <a href="https://www.acoss.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/ACOSS_Poverty-in-Australia-Report_Web-Final.pdf" target="_blank">poverty</a>, and many more are suffering <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/912-Money-in-retirement.pdf" target="_blank">financial stress</a>. A growing number of Australians are becoming <a href="https://blog.grattan.edu.au/2019/06/who-is-homeless-in-australia/" target="_blank">homeless</a>.
A decade ago the Rudd federal government established the National Rental Affordability Scheme – <a href="https://www.dss.gov.au/our-responsibilities/housing-support/programmes-services/national-rental-affordability-scheme" target="_blank">NRAS</a>. The scheme paid incentives to developers and community housing organisations that built new homes and rented them out for at least 20% below market rents for 10 years.
The Abbott government axed the scheme in 2014. Labor promised to reintroduce it if won the 2019 election. Now advocates of affordable housing are calling on the Morrison government to do the same.
But new research <a href="https://blog.grattan.edu.au/?p=1011&amp;preview=true" target="_blank">published by the Grattan Institute today</a> concludes they are wrong. The NRAS was expensive, inefficient and mainly helped those not in greatest need.
Other policies, such as building social housing and boosting Commonwealth Rent Assistance, would be better targeted and waste less money along the way.
Poor value for money
The <a href="https://www.dss.gov.au/our-responsibilities/housing-support/programs-services/national-rental-affordability-scheme/national-rental-affordability-scheme-nras-incentive-indexation" target="_blank">value of the NRAS subsidy</a> was set much higher than it needed to be.
NRAS developers still on the program receive about A$11,000 of public money per unit per year (the subsidy was set originally at A$8,000, but indexed).
The problem is, A$11,000 is much more money than the developers need to cover the cost of the rental discount.
In 2016 the value of the 20% rental discount was slightly less than A$4,000 a year in the typical suburb in which NRAS properties were built.
The leftover value of the subsidy – about A$7,000 a year – was essentially a windfall gain for developers.
We estimate it provided windfall gains to private developers of at least A$1 billion, or roughly one-third of the <a href="https://www.anao.gov.au/work/performance-audit/national-rental-affordability-scheme-administration-allocations" target="_blank">total cost</a> of the scheme.
Community housing providers also received windfall gains, although they would have reinvested the funds into more affordable housing or deeper rental discounts for tenants.
The scheme was also poor value for money because the subsidy didn’t vary depending on location or type of dwelling: the same subsidy was offered for a one-bedroom apartment or a three-bedroom home. Not surprisingly, the scheme ultimately <a href="https://www.dss.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/07_2019/nras-quarterly-report-march-2019.pdf" target="_blank">funded</a> a lot of small, cheap-to-build units.
Not directed at those most in need
The eligibility criteria were far too loose.
Someone can qualify to live in one of the NRAS dwellings left on the scheme with an income of <a href="https://www.dss.gov.au/our-responsibilities/housing-support/programs-services/national-rental-affordability-scheme/national-rental-affordability-scheme-nras-household-income-indexation" target="_blank">up to A$50,000</a> – a good deal higher than the <a href="https://blog.grattan.edu.au/2019/04/how-much-does-the-typical-australian-earn-the-answer-might-surprise-you/" target="_blank">median income</a>.
A couple can qualify if their household income is below A$70,000.
It means about half of all households that rent can qualify to live in an NRAS subsidised home. Half of them would be ineligible for Commonwealth Rent Assistance because their incomes are too high.
Only <a href="https://www.dss.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/06_2017/nras_tenant_demographic_report_as_at_30_april_2016.pdf" target="_blank">one-third</a> of the households living in an NRAS home at the scheme’s peak in 2016 had gross household incomes below A$30,000 a year, whereas one-third had incomes above A$50,000 a year.
No extra housing
There’s also little evidence the NRAS led to much more housing being built than otherwise.
Government subsidies don’t create extra housing if they crowd out housing that would have been built anyway. Crowding out is most likely when supply is already constrained, as it is in major Australian cities where land-use rules <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/901-Housing-affordability.pdf" target="_blank">prevent greater density</a> in established suburbs. International research suggests affordable housing <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0047272710000885" target="_blank">crowds out</a> private housing.
No useful stimulus
Nor was the NRAS a useful stimulus. It began in 2008 at the height of the global financial crisis, but most NRAS properties were <a href="https://www.dss.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/07_2019/nras-quarterly-report-march-2019.pdf" target="_blank">only approved</a> between 2013 and 2015, by which time housing construction was <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/901-Housing-affordability.pdf" target="_blank">already booming</a>.
<a href="https://www.anao.gov.au/work/performance-audit/administration-national-rental-affordability-scheme" target="_blank">Administrative difficulties</a> and a complex design made housing constructed through NRAS anything but timely.
Better alternatives
Instead of reinstating the NRAS, state and federal governments should focus on policies that will do the most (at least cost) to better house low-income Australians.
A Rudd-era policy the Morrison government should introduce is the <a href="http://www.nwhn.net.au/admin/file/content101/c6/social_housing_initiative_review.pdf" target="_blank">Social Housing Initiative</a>, which built 20,000 new social housing units and refurbished another 80,000 over two years at a cost of A$5.6 billion.
The economic hit was immediate: construction approvals spiked within 12 months of the announcement. A repeat today would provide a more effective boost to declining housing construction than a reinstated NRAS.
<a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/commonwealth-orange-book-2019/" target="_blank">Boosting</a> Commonwealth Rent Assistance by 40%, and indexing it to changes in rents typically paid by people receiving income support, would be a fairer and more cost-effective way to help the much larger number of lower-income earners struggling with housing costs.
It <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/912-Money-in-retirement.pdf" target="_blank">shouldn’t push up rents much</a> because only some of the extra assistance will be spent on housing.
The states should also <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-make-housing-more-affordable-this-is-what-state-governments-need-to-do-105050" target="_blank">fix planning rules</a> that prevent more homes being built in inner and middle-ring suburbs of our largest cities. It would help a bit to make housing cheaper to buy and rent. Reforming tenancy rules would make renting more secure.
There is a powerful case for governments to do more to help house low-income Australians. But unless we learn from past mistakes, we will wind up with another expensive housing policy that does little to help those who most need that support.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122854/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Brendan Coates, Program Director, Household Finances, Grattan Institute.
Jessie Horder-Geraghty, Researcher, Grattan Institute.
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/rudds-rental-affordability-scheme-was-a-1-billion-gift-to-developers-abbott-was-right-to-axe-it-122854" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Kevin Rudd’s rental affordability scheme was a $1 billion gift to developers; Tony Abbott was right to axe it

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GUEST OBSERVATION
A need to manage waiting lists, rather than ensuring positive outcomes for tenant households, strongly influences social housing policy, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/final-reports/316" target="_blank">newly published research</a> finds. This situation is not only a result of operational policies, but also a shortage of social housing stock that is suitable for tenants and a lack of viable alternatives – namely affordable, safe and secure private housing. Eligible applicants who don’t have a “priority need” can wait up to ten years to be housed. They face strict eligibility checks just to remain on the waiting list.
Since the large-scale <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/final-reports/309" target="_blank">post-war expansion to house working-class families</a>, the social housing sector has <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/housing-assistance/housing-assistance-in-australia-2018/contents/housing-in-australia" target="_blank">shrunk relative to the rest of the housing system</a>. More than <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/housing-assistance/housing-assistance-in-australia-2019/contents/priority-groups-and-wait-lists#pg4" target="_blank">140,000 people</a> are on public housing waiting lists.
Importantly, this figure does not capture <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/final-reports/306" target="_blank">unmet demand</a> such as people sleeping rough and very low-income households in housing stress who are not on waiting lists.
Waiting lists also don’t include hidden demand such as people suspended from waiting lists or excluded by their <a href="https://www.homelessnessnsw.org.au/sites/homelessnessnsw/files/2018-12/Path%20to%20Nowhere_0.pdf" target="_blank">visa status</a>.
The supply of social housing stock simply does not match the growing numbers of households experiencing <a href="https://amplify.csi.edu.au/amplify-insights/" target="_blank">housing affordability problems</a>. Between 2011 and 2016, <a href="https://www.launchhousing.org.au/%20australianhomelessnessmonitor/" target="_blank">government spending</a> on social housing fell by 7% from A$1.42 billion to A$1.32 billion. Today, social housing is provided to over <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/housing-assistance/housing-assistance-in-australia-2018/contents/housing-in-australia" target="_blank">800,000 tenants in more than 400,000 households</a> – 76% in public housing, 20% in community housing and 4% in Indigenous housing.
The expansion of public housing (delivered by state and territory housing authorities) to community housing and Indigenous housing (delivered by non-profit community organisations and Indigenous organisations) has transformed social housing. Community housing has <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/housing-assistance/housing-assistance-in-australia-2019/contents/social-housing-dwellings" target="_blank">increased by 121%</a> between 2008-09 and 2017-18. This growth includes <a href="https://theconversation.com/growth-of-community-housing-may-be-an-illusion-the-cost-shifting-isnt-108598" target="_blank">tenanted stock transfers from public housing</a>.
Against this background, policymakers are <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/final-reports/316" target="_blank">increasingly seeking to promote housing “pathways”</a>. Operational housing policies are intended to improve tenant housing and social outcomes (such as well-being and economic participation), but also to manage long waiting lists and make the system more efficient.
These policies shape housing pathways, determining how tenants and households move into, within and out of social housing. But these pathways are also influenced by household relationships and a <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/140360902760385565" target="_blank">household’s changing needs</a>. What a tenant or family need from their housing changes when, for example, relationships break down, new relationships begin, children are born or children leave home.
<a href="/news">Our research</a> sought to better understand the policy context behind housing pathways and their impacts on tenants’ experience.
Getting in
Pathways into social housing begin with application, which is a centralised process in most states and territories (apart from the Northern Territory). Prospective tenants apply once through a single portal, with information shared between government housing departments and community housing providers.
The success of an application depends on a range of eligibility criteria (see Table 1), starting with income and assets. Even if a prospective tenant meets the income criteria, priority is given to people and households with specific or complex needs. What constitutes “specific or complex needs” varies, but generally includes disability, poor physical or mental health, experience of family violence, exiting institutions, or being homeless or at risk of homelessness (the <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/housing-assistance/housing-assistance-in-australia-2019/contents/priority-groups-and-wait-lists#pg1" target="_blank">most common pathway into social housing</a>).
Other criteria include citizenship and residence status (including restrictions based on permanent residency/citizen status), age and tenancy history.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285804/original/file-20190726-43153-1p9x80p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
Table 1: Summary of common eligibility criteria. <a class="source" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/final-reports/316" target="_blank">Source: Powell et al 2019</a>, Author provided
An applicant’s place on the waiting list is continually checked. If an applicant is found to be ineligible, or simply does not respond, they may be suspended or removed from the list.
Staying in
Most states and territories have policies on the eligibility of tenants to continue in public housing. Criteria include income levels, use of the premises, and household change. What criteria are reviewed, and how often, varies widely.
Eligibility reviews mean tenants fear any extra income might result in an end to their tenure or having to make higher rent contributions. This potentially undermines their preparedness to undertake education and training, or take up work opportunities that might lead to greater independence.
Moving within
Policies allow tenants to apply for a transfer if household circumstances have changed. A dwelling might no longer be suitable – for example, as a result of overcrowding or family violence.
In practice, however, supply constraints make this challenging. Policies that transfer public housing properties to community housing providers result in tenants becoming less mobile as moving between public and community housing is not possible.
Landlord-initiated transfers can also occur. For example, property or housing estate renewal might require tenant relocation. A transfer might also be a result of tenant conduct or changes in eligibility status.
Moving out
Exits from social housing may occur when a tenant chooses to move to private housing or is evicted. Eviction may result from issues such as neighbourhood disputes, anti-social behaviour, rental arrears, a lease coming to an end, or changes to eligibility.
Tenants who are no longer eligible for social housing based on their income may also be evicted. These tenants often still have limited capacity to take on and manage a private rental tenancy.
Policy levers to help with moves out of social housing include: selling dwellings to tenants; providing private rent subsidies; rental transition programs; financial planning; and client-based needs planning. Some policies also target private landlords with a goal of increasing housing affordability and therefore pathways out of social housing.
By far the biggest obstacle to moving out of social housing, however, is the lack of affordable housing alternatives.
What this means
While operational policy establishes formal pathways (by setting eligibility criteria and so on), what happens in practice may be different, as service providers can interpret and implement policies in different ways, with different effects for tenants.
Further, what is known about the housing pathways of tenants moving in, within and out of social housing is based on partial evidence. It comes from social housing providers themselves (missing information about events prior to and following occupancy), or from survey research seeking to fill some of the data gaps. Many blind spots exist in the housing pathways evidence base.
Optimal policy development requires clear, up-to-date evidence on how we might understand social housing pathways within a changed housing policy and housing assistance context. We also need to consider what advances in administrative and longitudinal data can tell us about how policy innovation might improve social housing pathways.
Abigail Powell, Associate Professor at the Centre for Social Impact, UNSW
Chris Hartley, Research Fellow (Housing and Homelessness) at the Centre for Social Impact, UNSW
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/focus-on-managing-social-housing-waiting-lists-is-failing-low-income-households-120675" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Focus on managing social housing waiting lists is failing low-income households: UNSW Academics

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There was data out earlier this month showing that Australian renters devote more of their income to housing than home owners.
It was not one of those reports suggesting the wisdom of buying over renting, but rather an insight into the struggle of many to keep housing over their heads.
On average, private renters paid 20% of their income on their housing costs, compared to 16% for owners with a mortgage.
It was 3% for households who owned their home outright across Australia.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics calculated housing costs as including rent payments; rate payments (water and general); and mortgage or unsecured loan payments if the initial purpose of the loan was primarily to buy, add, or alter the dwelling.
CoreLogic head of research Cameron Kusher noted the 16% share has been trending lower for mortgage holder since it peaked in 2005-06 at 19%.
The decline basically reflects the ongoing drop in mortgage rates to their current historic low levels.
The renters spending 20% of their income on housing costs was only slightly lower than it was two years earlier.
Kusher notes the circumstance reflects that renters typically have lower gross household incomes than those with a mortgage, hence paying a greater proportion on their housing outlay.
The mortgage holders have also been in a situation of reducing their debt payments over time as they pay down their loan.
The recent ABS data indicated it was the lower income households that spent an even greater proportion of their household income on housing.
On average, lower income households renting privately paid $339 per week nationally which was 32% of their gross weekly income.
Lower income households who owned their home with a mortgage paid on average $376 per week nationally which was 29% of their gross weekly income.
In New South Wales, 35% of NSW households are renting and some 35% own with a mortgage.
Some 30% owned in NSW without a mortgage, down from 32% in 2015–16.
NSW owners without a mortgage paid $48 a week on average.
NSW owners with a mortgage paid $508 per week, or 15% of gross weekly household income.
NSW renters paid $422 per week, or 21% of gross weekly household income.
The median mortgage outstanding in NSW was $265,000, which isn't that much above the the median mortgage in Australia which is $260,000, up from $238,000 in 2015–16.
There's always been reports that grab headlines suggesting the Sydney suburbs where it was cheaper to pay down a mortgage on a house than to rent one.
But these days they virtually don't exist.
Indeed even our regional areas are failing to offer relief for renters.
There was a recent snapshot of the 70,000 rental properties available across Australia by the advocacy group Anglicare Australia that found only 4% were affordable for households on government income support payments. 
“Making sure everyone has a home should be our first priority," says Anglicare Australia executive director Kasy Chambers.
"We need a national plan to make renting fair for a generation of people who might never own their own home.
"For too many people, paying the rent means they can’t afford to eat decent food, fill a prescription, pay for transport, or buy clothes."
Chambers fears this matters enormously for the 660,000 people on the aged pension who do not own their own home.
This article was first published in the Saturday Daily Telegraph. 
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