Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Housing Affordability

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Affordability nationwide improved in the five years between 2011 and 2016 – that’s one of the more interesting facts to emerge from the 2016 Census data. 
An analysis by population analysts profile.id finds that the median mortgage payment in 2011 was $1,800 per month, but in 2016 it was $1,755. Over the same period the median household income increased from $5,330 to $6,205 per month. 
Of course, these are national average figures and they conceal myriad differences among the various states and cities. The biggest improvements in affordability, in terms of the reduction in mortgage payments, occurred in Queensland and the ACT. 
But there was even a small improvement in New South Wales, notwithstanding the big price rises in Sydney. 
Unsurprisingly, the biggest single factor in the reduction in mortgage payments was the decrease in interest rates. In 2011, the official cash rate was 4.5 percent and by 2016 it was 1.5 percent. Glenn “the Census expert” at profile.id says: “While the banks have passed on less and less of these cuts, it’s certainly the case that mortgage interest rates being paid by home owners in the past five years have reduced.” 
Perhaps the most startling fact is that the median mortgage payment for the Greater Sydney area was the same in 2016 as it was in 2011. And in Melbourne the median mortgage payment reduced slightly. 
The analysis examined mortgage payments for people aged between 18 and 34 who have a mortgage and don’t live at home with their parents – i.e. looking at the profile most likely to include first-time buyers. This is where the improvement in affordability was actually the highest, in terms of the reduction in median mortgage payments between 2011 and 2016. 
In the ACT, for example, median monthly payments dropped from $2,460 to $2,140, while in Queensland they fell from $2,165 to $1,958. Even in NSW, the median mortgage payment for this demographic dropped from $2,182 to $2,129. 
As Glenn points out: “There are very large falls in mortgages in the ACT ($320/month) and Queensland ($207/month). But even in Sydney and Melbourne, which have seen rapid escalation of housing prices, there have been modest declines in what 18-34 year olds are actually paying on their mortgages when they have them. 
“So in fact, a larger part of the decline (in mortgage payments) is in this key group. Probably because they have the larger mortgages and are more affected by changes in interest rates. So, while we have seen that children are delaying leaving home longer (though not much longer), once they do leave home they are actually paying less to buy a house.” 
These figures put another perspective on the general issue of housing affordability. 
But here’s the thing: every day the Hotspotting team scours media sources for information on residential real estate and, to date, we haven’t found any coverage of this very thorough and professional analysis of the affordability situation. 
No newspaper or other media outlet has run this story. Why not? Because it doesn’t suit the pre-conceived storyline, the much-beloved theme of everyone being priced out of the market. 
Another reflection of media bias on this subject came earlier in the year when one of the major affordability indexes published the latest findings. There were two scenarios: in annual terms, affordability had improved in most states and territories, but comparing the latest quarter to the previous quarter, affordability had declined in most states and territories. 
Every media outlet which ran an article in this report focused on the quarter-to-quarter deterioration and totally ignored the annual improvement. 
Media has created a “crisis” by selectively using data to support the favoured theme which says no one can afford to buy any more. It’s obviously rubbish but that’s what they keep telling us – and so when someone runs a survey on the issue, a majority of citizens say they believe young people are priced out of the market everywhere. 
It’s sad how dishonest our media is and also sad how easily people are deluded by it. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="mailto:%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20var%20prefix%20=%20'ma'%20+%20'il'%20+%20'to';%20var%20path%20=%20'hr'%20+%20'ef'%20+%20'=';%20var%20addy38821%20=%20'ryder'%20+%20'@';%20addy38821%20=%20addy38821%20+%20'hotspotting'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'com'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'au';%20document.write('%3Ca%20'%20+%20path%20+%20'/''%20+%20prefix%20+%20':'%20+%20addy38821%20+%20'/'%3E');%20document.write(addy38821);%20document.write('%3C//a%3E');%20//--%3E/n%20%3C/script%3E%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
 
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Affordability actually improving in terms of mortgage payments: Terry Ryder

<html><body>
The Federal Government wants to encourage retirees to downsize from their big family homes.
It is part of Treasurer Scott Morrison's budget package to improve housing affordability with the draft legislation allowing Australians aged over 65 to make an exempt contribution to their superannuation from the sale proceeds.
The Government's aim is to free up the stock of larger houses for young families.
The superannuation break will apply when the elderly move into a smaller home that that "better suits their needs," or on entering the rental market, relocating to an aged-care facility or moving into their adult children’s homes.
The special voluntary superannuation contribution rules could see couples contributing up to $600,000 from the proceeds of selling their home if it has been home for the past decade.
The measure will not commence until 1 July 2018 and as the Age Pension means test will continue to apply, the measure are not expected to be taken up by too many.
The Government has released consultation draft legislation - and here are six important takeouts. 
1) What kind of homes would this apply to? 
The sale of any dwelling – other than a caravan, houseboat or mobile home – could qualify. 
2) Must the home be my main residence?
Yes, but only for some portion of your ownership period. 
3) Could I sell now and contribute after 1 July 2018? 
No. It is set to only apply where the contract of sale is entered into on or after 1 July 2018. 
4) Must my spouse have been on the title to make a contribution? 
No. The consultation draft provides that either you or your spouse must have owned the home. 
5) How much could I contribute?
The maximum downsizer contribution would be $300,000 per contributor. However, the downsizer contribution must come from the proceeds of the sale. So, if a couple sold their home for $500,000, their combined downsizer contributions would be limited to $500,000. 
6) What if I don’t have a super account? 
There is no restriction preventing you from opening a superannuation account to make a downsizer contribution.
I think there is no doubt that the reluctant downsizer demographic has created roadblocks for the orderly flow of home listings across more established areas of Sydney.
Tightly held homes means prices keep going up quicker than normal.
But their reluctance to move isn't solely due to the desire to keep the happy family memories intact.
They really want housing options such as single level patio garden homes that are few and far between in most neighbourhoods.
Additionally they are not that keen on paying stamp duty on any downsized property purchase.
Treasurer Scott Morrison needs to have Premier Gladys Berejiklian introduce a reduced or postponed stamp duty initiative to really make any progress on downsizers.
This article first appeared in the Daily Telegraph.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Government to free up stock of larger houses for young families

<html><body>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/80965/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
A new report by the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI) reveals, for the first time, the extent of housing need in Australia.
An estimated 1.3 million households are in a state of housing need, whether unable to access market housing or in a position of rental stress. This figure is predicted to rise to 1.7 million by 2025.
To put it in perspective, 1.3 million is around 14% of Australian households. This national total includes 373,000 households in New South Wales, where the number is expected to increase by 80% to more than 670,000 by 2025 under the baseline economic assumptions of the modelling.
The first graph below shows the average annual level of housing need to 2025. The second, showing the percentages of households, permits a direct comparison by state. NSW and Queensland are in the worst position. The ACT is calculated to have the lowest proportional level of need.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-03%20at%2011.17.48%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-03%20at%2011.17.48%20AM.png" alt="">
 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-03%20at%2011.18.59%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-03%20at%2011.18.59%20AM.png" alt="">
What does this mean for households in need?
Housing need is defined as:
… the aggregate of households unable to access market-provided housing or requiring some form of housing assistance in the private rental market to avoid a position of rental stress.
This includes potential households that are unable to form because their income is too low to afford to rent in the private rental market. These households would traditionally rely on public housing and community housing to meet their needs. However, more and more are being forced into the private rental market, paying housing costs they are unable to afford without making significant sacrifices.
To 2025, on average 190,000 potential households in NSW will be unable to access market housing in a given year. The graph below is the most revealing as it illustrates the gap between affordable housing demand and supply.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-03%20at%2011.19.54%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-03%20at%2011.19.54%20AM.png" alt="">
The lack of social housing and subsidised rental housing prevents such households forming under affordable conditions. Many will manage to form but will have to spend well over 30% of their income on housing costs to do so, putting them in a position of financial stress.
The results also reveal the increasing pressure the affordable housing shortfall places on the housing assistance budget, notably Commonwealth Rent Assistance.
The absence of a significant new supply of affordable housing – there has been no large-scale program since the National Rental Affordability Scheme (NRAS) began in 2008 – has left state governments trying to find ways to plug the affordability gap.
Responses have been largely on the demand side, such as first home buyer concessions recently announced in NSW. But such incentives are no use for low-income households. To help them, intervention needs to be on the supply side.
How does Australia compare?
The AHURI research built on ideas emerging from research into housing need in the UK. It revealed interesting differences between the two countries.
UK government policy prior to 2010 emphasised the role of the planning system in helping to substantially increase affordable housing supply. This reflected evidence from England and Scotland that found a link between low levels of new housing supply and higher and rising house prices.
In this project, we found plenty of evidence of deteriorating housing affordability in Australia. But we did not find a particularly strong relationship between housing supply and  price growth. This might reflect how other drivers of deteriorating housing affordability are more important in Australia – such as tax incentives for investors.
These findings suggest we need to look more closely at how new supply and investment demand interact, and in what circumstances boosting new supply is likely to improve affordability.
From our analysis of individuals’ labour market circumstances and incomes, it was also clear that the Australian workforce has not escaped the erosion of secure, full-time employment opportunities seen in other countries.
The combination of widespread insecure, part-time employment opportunities, high housing costs and low supply of rented social housing means the housing of many working Australians is extremely precarious.
How was the research done?
The research modelled housing need at the state and territory level to 2025 using an underlying set of economic assumptions and interrelated models on household formation, housing markets, labour markets and tenure choice.
The models were underpinned by data from the Housing, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and house price and rent data.
This research delivers, for the first time in Australia, a consistent and replicable methodology for assessing housing need. It can be used to inform resource allocation and simulate the impact of policy decisions on housing outcomes.
The intention is to further develop the model to assess housing need at the level of local government areas.
So, what are the policy implications?
The scale of the affordable housing shortfall requires major action from federal and state governments.
NRAS had its problems but at least delivered a supply of below-market housing. Australia cannot rely on the private sector to deliver housing for low-income households without some form of government subsidy as it is simply not profitable to do so.
The question is what government is going to be prepared, or even able, to spend big to close the affordable housing supply gap?
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/steven-rowley-201914">Steven Rowley </a>is Director, Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, Curtin Research Centre, Curtin University.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/chris-leishman-391783">Chris Leishman</a> is Professor of Housing Economics, University of Adelaide.
Both are authors for <a href="https://theconversation.com/au" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
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Affordable housing shortfall leaves 1.3m households in need and rising – study

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New research estimates 1.3 million Australian households are in housing needs, according to the AHURI, with that figure expected to rise to 1.7 million households by 2025.
According to the AHURI  ‘Housing need’ covers existing households that need support to avoid paying more than 30 per cent of their income in housing costs, as well as an estimate of the number of households that would likely have formed if not for housing affordability constraints.
Research lead, Associate Professor Steven Rowley from Curtin University, said housing need is set to rise in most states and territories by 2025. 
"Our findings show the scale of affordable housing necessary to meet housing need and the challenge faced by state and local governments to deliver such housing," he said.
"In NSW, the number of households estimated to be in need by 2025 rises from 373,000 to 677,500 while in Victoria, the number will approach half a million."
The research, ‘Modelling housing need in Australia to 2025’, was undertaken by researchers from Curtin University and The University of Adelaide and produced a replicable model for housing need assessment. It developed a simulation based around five interrelated models of the housing market, labour market, labour market earnings, household formation and tenure choice. It utilised HILDA, ABS and house price data. 
It estimates that in Australia today 527,400 households are unable to enter market housing and a further 806,100 households require some form of housing assistance to make their housing affordable, which equates to around 15 percent of all current Australian households.
 
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1.3 million Australian households in housing need: AHURI

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/81619/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Home ownership among young people is declining, as mortgage debt almost doubles for the same age group, results from the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey show. It also shows young people are living with their parents longer. 
The Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research undertakes the survey every year. It’s Australia’s only nationally representative household longitudinal study, and has followed the same individuals and households since 2001.
The survey shows the rate of home ownership among 18 to 39 year olds declined from 36% in 2002 to 25% in 2014. In the same age group, the decline in home ownership has been largest for families with dependent children, falling from 56% to 39%. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/02/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-02%20at%209.04.42%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/02/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-02%20at%209.04.42%20AM.png" alt="">
Even for those in this group who manage to buy a home, mortgage debt has risen dramatically. In 2002, 89% of home owners in this age range had mortgage debt. By 2014 this had risen to 94%. 
More significantly, the average home debt rose considerably. Expressed in December 2015 prices, average home debt grew from about A$169,000 in 2002 to about A$337,000 in 2014. Low interest rates since the global financial crisis have meant mortgage repayments for these home owners have remained manageable, but this group is very vulnerable to rate rises. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/02/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-02%20at%209.05.55%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/02/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-02%20at%209.05.55%20AM.png" alt="">
Detailed wealth data in the survey, collected every four years since 2002, show this increase in debt and decrease in ownership are part of a trend in the wider population. HILDA shows 65% of households were in owner-occupied dwellings in 2015, down from 69% in 2001.
In fact, the decline in home ownership has been greater than the decline in owner-occupied households. This is largely because adult children are living with their parents for longer.
For example, the HILDA data show that the proportion of women aged 22 to 25 living with their parents rose from 28% in 2001 to 48% in 2015. For men this proportion rose from 42% to 60%.
Among those who manage to access the housing market, the data shows that the growth in home debt is not simply because they are borrowing more to purchase their home. A surprisingly high proportion of young home owners (between 30% and 40%) actually increase their debt from one year to the next, despite most of them remaining in the same home. Even over a four-year period - for example, from 2010 to 2014 - at least 40% of young home owners with a mortgage increase their nominal home debt.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/02/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-02%20at%209.06.50%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/02/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-02%20at%209.06.50%20AM.png" alt="">
The proportion of people with home debt that exceeds the value of their home – that is, negative equity – has also risen. In 2002, 2.4% of people had negative equity in their home; in 2014, 3.9% had negative equity. This is a relatively small proportion, but this could change as even small decreases in house prices will result in substantial increases in the prevalence of negative equity.
<h2>How this changes with location, income and profession</h2>
In 2014, less than 20% of Sydneysiders aged 18 to 39 were home owners, compared with 36% or more in the ACT, urban Northern Territory and non-urban regions of Australia. To a significant extent this reflects differences across regions in house prices. 
Sydney and Melbourne have particularly high house prices, while non-urban areas generally have comparatively low house prices. Regional differences in the incomes of 18 to 39 year olds also play a role. 
Those with the highest home-ownership rates are professionals and, to a lesser extent, managers. They experienced relatively little decline in home ownership. 
For workers in other occupations, home ownership has declined substantially. In 2014 home ownership was especially rare among community and personal services workers, sales workers and labourers.
This decline represents profound social change among this age group, where renting is increasingly becoming the dominant form of housing. In 2002, 61% of people aged 35 to 39 were home owners – a clear majority of their age group. By 2014, this proportion had fallen to 48%.
The changing housing situation of young adults is part of a broader change in the distribution of wealth in Australia. The HILDA Survey shows that differences in average wealth by age have grown since 2002. For example, in 2002, median net wealth of those aged 65 and over was 2.8 times that of people aged 25 to 34. In 2014, this ratio had increased to 4.5. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/02/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-02%20at%209.07.55%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/02/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-02%20at%209.07.55%20AM.png" alt="">
The decline in home ownership among young adults and this broader trend in wealth have implications for their long-term economic wellbeing and indeed for the retirement income system. Even if house price growth moderates and many of those currently aged under 40 ultimately enter the housing market, it’s likely that a rising proportion will not have paid off the mortgage by the time they retire. It may be that many will resort to drawing on superannuation balances to repay home loans, in turn increasing demands on the Age Pension.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/roger-wilkins-95906" target="_blank">Roger Wilkins</a> is Professorial Research Fellow and Deputy Director (Research), HILDA Survey, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, University of Melbourne and author for The Conversation.
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Home ownership falling, debts rising – it’s looking grim for the under 40

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GUEST OBSERVER
The housing market is gradually responding to higher mortgage rates, tighter credit policies and affordability challenges, with the quarterly trend in capital gains moderating relative to early 2017.
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The July 2017 CoreLogic Home Value Index results recorded a 1.5% rise in dwelling values across the combined capital cities for the month.  Most individual capital cities recorded a rise, however, a 3.1% gain in Melbourne was a significant driver for the strong monthly result across the combined capitals.
The latest housing market results highlight the diversity of housing market conditions, with dwelling values down over the month in Brisbane (-0.6%), Perth (-1.3%) and Darwin (-1.2%).
<h3>Index results as at July 31, 2017</h3>
Click to enlarge
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/02/2017-08-01--indices.jpg" alt="">
The recent bounce in capital gains may be partially due to a recovery from the seasonal slump in values recorded in April and May. However, other factors, such as stamp duty concessions for first home buyers in New South Wales and Victoria, may also be having a positive impact on market demand.
It’s still too early to measure the effect of first home buyer incentives, which went live on July 1st. However historically, the first time buyer segment has been very responsive to stimulus measures.
Despite the higher month-on-month capital gains in June and July, the quarterly trend rate of growth has clearly reduced.  The rolling quarterly pace of capital gains across the combined capitals has fallen from 3.6% in February earlier this year to reach 2.2% at the end of July. 
The slowdown in growth conditions is most evident across the hottest markets, with the quarterly growth trend reducing from 5.0% in Sydney earlier this year to 2.2% at the end of last month.  Melbourne growth conditions have also slowed, though to a lesser extent, with growth easing from a 2017 quarterly peak of 5.5% to 4.2%.
The divergence in growth rates between Sydney and Melbourne is also evident in auction clearance rates.  Sydney’s clearance rate has been below 70% for seven of the past eight weeks, while Melbourne auction clearance rates have consistently held around the mid 70% range. 
Melbourne appears to be benefitting from consistently high population growth which is creating strong demand for housing, as well as consistently high jobs growth and more affordable housing options relative to Sydney.
At the other end of the growth spectrum, Perth and Darwin have continued to see dwelling values slip lower over the month, taking the cumulative decline to 10.2% in Perth and 14.5% in Darwin since both markets peaked in 2014.
The ease in the rate of decline has been most visible in Perth, providing a signal that the Western Australian capital may be approaching the bottom of the downturn; listing numbers have been falling across Perth which is a positive sign of improving conditions, and transaction numbers have found a new floor at around 2,500 sales per month.
TIM LAWLESS heads up the CoreLogic RP Data research and analytics team and can be contacted<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/timlawless/" target="_blank"> here.</a>
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Housing market is gradually responding to higher mortgage rates

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GUEST OBSERVER
Over the past decade, the government has attempted to tackle housing affordability by implementing countless measures, from the removal of stamp duty taxes and first home owner grants, through to penalising foreign investment.
Yet, the Victorian Planning Authority (VPA) predicted the continuation of the quarter century decline of home ownership rates, confirmed by the 2016 Census.
So now the question is, why can’t we just get it right?
The answer is not as complicated as we think. The issue is not disposable income or foreign investment. Rather than a continued focus on trying to restrict demand, I believe in the answer lies in unlocking supply.
There are three key factors holding back our industry: restrictive and time-consuming planning regulations, a severe undersupply of construction resources and the absence of infrastructure investment in the key growth corridors of Victoria. Collectively, these factors are stifling developers’ ability to bring stock to the market to meet demand.
According to industry website Sourceable, Melbourne development approvals take an average of nine months. As a result, developers tie up resources and capital in projects for extended periods and are unable to deliver the supply of housing needed to meet the state’s growing demand.
However, creating a planning system that is it up to speed with this fast-paced industry is only one piece of the puzzle. The demand for contractors and resources is skyrocketing. Contractors for major works are being shared amongst a huge number of competing developers, and those same contractors are often tendering for major infrastructure projects, of which there are a number currently underway.
The tug-of-war battle for resources is causing increased delays and higher construction costs.
These delays not only impact the final cost, they also immobilise developers who are unable to work on more projects concurrently.
In the 2017 State of Land Report by the Urban Development Institute of Australia (UDIA) it states that “57,000 new lots were released in 2016, a 10% increase since 2015” and yet the demand for these lots still outweighs supply. Buyers continue to camp out for land releases, sometimes for days at a time, afraid that if not, they will, yet again, miss out on the type of block or location that suits their needs.
Collectively, the delay caused by these issues directly correlates to holding costs for developers. Every month that a project is delayed the corresponding holding cost increases, attributed to high construction costs, mounting land taxes, council rates, interest on loans and more.
In a study by Urbis commissioned by the Property Council, it was found that these delays can add anywhere from $10,253 to $36,779 to the average cost of a block of land. A cost that must either be absorbed by the developer, or passed on to the purchaser.
The key concern is that this problem is on the rise. The Australian Bureau of Statistics estimate that the population of Australia will grow from 23 million to between 36.8 million and 48.53 million by 2061. According to the UDIA, due to this growing population, Victoria alone needs to deliver in excess of 55,000 new homes per year.
Looking beyond the limitation of the current planning process and undersupply of resources, the industry is also crippled by a lack of infrastructure investment in Victoria’s growth corridors. Danni Addison, Victorian CEO of the Urban Development Institute of Australia (UDIA) says that investment in infrastructure is at the heart of housing affordability and that we must be “focusing on investing in and delivering the roads and services that will make these areas more accessible to employment, amenities, and services”.
In the Interim Report released by the Victorian Population Policy Taskforce released in June 2017, it was revealed that 77 per cent of Victoria’s population live in Melbourne and that if Victoria does not move “from a city state into a state of cities”, this growth is simply unsustainable.
The 2016 census by the Australian Bureau of Statistics states that Victoria noted the most rapid growth in its history, recording a 10.7 per cent increase in population since 2011.
By working with industry bodies like the UDIA, Property Council of Australia (PCA) and others, we can bring about real positive change. Industry peers must support industry bodies to lobby for changes at a state and national level.
The recent government measures are simply not enough to facilitate this enormous increase in delivery. In fact, many of the changes will only lead to an increase in demand, pushing out development timelines and supply even further.
If the government is serious about enforcing change that will have a tangible effect on affordability and supply, it needs to minimise delays and red tape and provide a commitment to drive additional resources to streamline and fast-track the process. Only then can we work cohesively to keep up with the growing demands of Melbourne, Victoria and beyond.
As active industry members, we too are accountable for the housing affordability crisis. It is imperative that we pool our collective research and knowledge to inspire government and lobby for the real, tangible changes our industry needs in order to thrive and keep meeting the evolving needs of Australians across the country. 
 
John C Dwyer is Managing Director, <a href="https://dacland.com.au" target="_blank">Dacland</a>.
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Melbourne housing affordability and why we can't get it right

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A new industry body has been launched to aid government and industry to streamline planning processes, develop effective policy to reduce housing costs and increase housing supply.
The Housing Supply Association was launched by the NSW Minister for Planning and Housing, Anthony Roberts.
Properties will be made available for purchase and rental through the HSA, with caveats placed on sales to first homebuyers to ensure they are not on-sold for profit.
Minister Roberts has welcomed HSA’s commitment to help break the cycle of the spiralling property market, which slams the door on many new first homebuyers and prevents key workers living where they work.
“The NSW Government is committed to working with businesses, organisations and local communities to address housing affordability and those who are most disadvantaged in buying their first home, or renting where they live,” he said.
“I commend the formation of the not-for-profit Housing Supply Association to assist in tackling these challenges and look forward to working hand-in-hand with all participants to break down the barriers for future generations of new home owners and renters and helping key workers to live where they work.”
The HSA will also work with government and industry to secure property exclusively for those who need it most, many properties at potentially 20 – 30% below market value.
Property allocation will also focus on ex- servicemen and women and people with disabilities.
Aras Labutis, HSA Vice President said Australia was at a crossroads in addressing housing affordability for the average wage-earner.
“I am proud to be part of the HSA’s collaboration with government, councils and key stakeholders to deliver the first major positive intervention to address this serious social issue,” he said.
“This is the only holistic, industry-driven solution to deliver real outcomes for first homebuyers and key workers, such as the police, ambos and fire services who look after our communities 24/7.
“The HSA’s purpose is to increase affordable housing supply as part of an industry-wide response to a problem that now desperately needs action, not words.”
"Suitable developments for the HSA’s target market are underway or in the pipeline.
"One major property provider has already committed 20 percent of a new development to the HSA for affordable housing.
“We have consulted those groups facing hardship, and the current housing situation disadvantages many of the most valued members of our community.
“We need to increase supply of housing, and we need to look after those who need it most.
“We have tested our approach with government and the key worker Associations and they like the process.
“I would like to thank the NSW Government for their support and commitment of this important initiative.
“Without the collaboration of industry and support of Minister Roberts and the NSW Government our plans to address this crisis would not be possible.”
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Housing Supply Association formed to tackle housing crisis

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The federal budget measures and state announcements to make housing more affordable seems to be having little impact on single people and the younger generation, a recent survey has found.
Although both NSW and Victoria have abolished stamp duty for first home buyers on properties up to 650,000 and 600,000 respectively, the fact is that home prices in the popular suburbs are almost always above these levels.
Any reduced or full stamp duty for properties exceeding these prices will still be hefty.
With it now taking an average of 8.4 years for a couple to raise the $214,600 deposit required for a median-price house in Sydney, single people in particular, who are having to stump up most of the cash on their own, might continue to struggle to get into the market as the new financial year progresses.
A recent Galaxy Research survey of 1,006 people for debt solutions company Fox Symes found that significantly more single people (27 per cent) say the issue of housing affordability is having a major impact on their life right now compared to couples (15 per cent).
In addition, home ownership continues to worry young people. A large 40 per cent of respondents aged 18 – 24 name it as their biggest financial concern, followed by 29 per cent of those aged 24 – 34, and 21 per cent of Gen X-ers aged 35-49. 
Some 19 per cent of Australians overall are stressed about the issue with the highest percentage (26 per cent) among those in NSW, where housing prices are the most expensive. This was followed by Queensland (17 per cent), Victoria (16 per cent), South Australia (15 per cent) and WA (11 per cent).
“Whilst some new budgetary reforms are now taking place including restrictions on foreign investment, I still think we need to have ongoing discussions regarding housing affordability,” said Fox Symes director Deborah Southon. 
“Nowadays it can be very difficult for people who are on their own to get into the housing market and remain there comfortably. Even if they do manage to scrape up the deposit and take the plunge, they may end up taking on a mortgage they can’t really afford. This could land them in debt if they’re forced to rely on credit cards to help pay for expenses.”
Southon suggested that single people may have into alternative strategies such as buying into the market with a friend or relative, or buying a cheaper investment property whilst continuing to rent in their desired area. 
“We need to continue to create more solutions to address this problem which could only worsen in years to come and lead to financial stress for many. The issue is far from over.”
Earlier this year, an HSBC survey found that home ownership among Australian millennials was among the lowest, with less than a third (28 percent) owning one. A majority cited high property prices as a major barrier.
The survey also found that nearly one in 10 Australians (8 per cent) also say uncertainty over whether banks will raise interest rates is making them nervous. New levies set for big banks could also be passed onto customers in the form of increased banking charges.
Other costs currently stressing people out which could escalate are electricity and gas costs (17 per cent) - set to rise with big providers AGL, EnergyAustralia and Origin Energy poised to hike prices up to 20 per cent extra, and education (5 per cent) which may result in fee increases for some schools under Gonski 2.0. 
Private health insurance costs (23 per cent), grocery prices (11 per cent) and childcare fees (4 per cent) are also causing headaches for Aussies.
“Unfortunately, debt is the inevitable outcome when we spend more than we earn and with so many costs on the rise it’s a very easy trap to fall into,” Southon says. “If we want to live within our means then we need to budget and consistently monitor what we spend – now more than ever.” 
Galaxy Research conducted the online survey amongst a nationally representative sample of 1,006 Australians aged 18 years and older covering: NSW, ACT, VIC, TAS, QLD, SA and WA.
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Budget moves fail to ease housing affordability concerns for singles, young 

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GUEST OBSERVER
The great Australia dream of owning your own home is still alive despite the various problems plaguing housing affordability, new Census data shows. Even though the overall home ownership trend remains strong, it’s masking other issues.
The latest 2016 Census data assesses what the national home ownership and rental rates are and how these vary location. It also gives us a picture of mortgage and rental costs.
Comparing home ownership rates since the 2011 Census, there’s a slow but steady decline in home ownership rates overall - down by 2.9% from 64.9% of all Australian households in 2006, to 62.0% in 2016. However, 7.4% of households did not state their housing tenure in the 2016 Census. This accounts for some of the variation in reported rates of home ownership decline. 
This contraction is nowhere of the scale of equivalent falls in home ownership in the US and UK and New Zealand over the same period. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/29/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-28%20at%208.14.47%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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What’s more interesting than the overall trend, is the greater decline in outright home ownership, involving no mortgage debt, from 31.0% to 29.6% between 2011 and 2016. There’s also a lesser decline in home owners who are purchasing with mortgage debt 33.3% in 2011 compared with 32.4% in 2016. 
The opportunity households now have to borrow against their mortgage loans for spending undoubtedly accounts for some of this change. Also contributing to this is home purchasers are less likely to reach retirement age with no remaining mortgage debt, in the same numbers as previous eras.
Another aspect of housing affordability is masked by these numbers - the wide variation in being able to purchase a home according to age and income. Recent evidence indicates would-be-home-owners try various means including very high mortgage debt and moving to outer urban locations away from employment and into smaller dwellings, to be able to buy a house. Some even delay having kids. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/29/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-28%20at%208.18.03%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/29/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-28%20at%208.18.03%20AM.png" alt="">
Census figures show that for people wanting to purchase a home, a change in state or city location may be an option. According to the data Darwin was the most expensive city to buy in, whereas Hobart was the cheapest for home purchasers.
For households across the income spectrum, 7.2% of purchasers are paying more than 30% of their income on mortgage costs, the data shows. This figure is likely to be far higher among the lowest income (40% of households) for whom such costs place them in housing poverty.
Given the national obsession with investment in private rental, it’s no surprise that the proportion of all Australian households now renting has also increased. Census 2016 results show the private rental sector grew in size, from 20.2% in 2006, to 22.0% in 2011 and to 23.6% in 2016. In 2016 a total of 2,089,633 Australian households rented privately, either from real estate agents or private landlords.
The growth of the private rental sector largely reflects the high costs of home purchase. Many households who rent have a relative lack of security and control over rental increases.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/29/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-28%20at%208.19.36%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/29/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-28%20at%208.19.36%20AM.png" alt="">
For those unable to pay rent in the private market, social housing is likely to provide little relief. Census data shows overall rates of social housing declining from 4.7% in 2006 to 4.0% in 2016. In this context, the growth in rates of homelessness in the last decade is perhaps not surprising.
For Indigenous Australians, the housing picture is different. Census 2016 data show among households in which at least one resident is Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander, 12.2% are outright owners, 25.9% are purchaser owners, 32.4% are renting privately. Around a fifth of households, 21.5%, live in social housing, reflecting targeted social housing programs in metropolitan, rural and regional areas.
Overall, home ownership has not changed as dramatically in the last decade, as some would have anticipated. However, it’s likely with the labour market being what it is and the adaptations people are making to try and buy a home, there may be longer-term problems to be seen in future.
Excessive household debt, polarisation of cities into low and high income earning areas and deepening family housing constraints indicate these Census figures likely mask bigger problems. This may translate over time into a more costly social problem, as increasing proportions of households require housing assistance of some form. Australian society could become even more divided on the basis of housing wealth and opportunity, if these trends continue, as we expect they will.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/wendy-stone-9804" target="_blank">Wendy Stone</a> is Associate Professor, Centre for Urban Transitions, Swinburne University of Technology.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/kath-hulse-228874" target="_blank">Kath Hulse</a> is Research Professor, Centre for Urban Transitions, Swinburne University of Technology.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/margaret-reynolds-324336" target="_blank">Margaret Reynolds</a> is Researcher, Centre for Urban Transitions, Swinburne University of Technology.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/terry-burke-1268" target="_blank">Terry Burke</a> is Professor of Housing Studies, Centre for Urban Transitions, Swinburne University of Technology.
All are authors for The Conversation.
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