A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.

The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.

The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.

The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.

Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.

"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.

"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."

<img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" />

Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.

Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.

Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.

"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.

"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."

Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.

Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.

Joel Robinson

Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

The long-planned transformation of Brisbane's historic Shafston Estate has taken another major step, with Capella Hotel Group announced as the luxury hospitality partner behind what will become Brisbane's first branded residences.

The project, to be known as Capella Residences Brisbane, is being delivered by Verso Projects at the landmark Kangaroo Point riverfront estate, with completion targeted for 2029.

The announcement follows a series of planning changes to the project over recent years. The site was originally approved in 2023 for a 15-level, 37-apartment development designed by Rothelowman for Burgundy Group before Verso Projects took over the 10,070 sqm riverfront holding and lodged revised plans with Kerry Hill Architects to increase the development to a 25-level tower with 51 apartments.

The latest announcement confirms Capella Hotel Group will bring its branded residential offering to the project, marking just the second Capella Residences development globally after Seoul, and the group's first branded residential project in Australia.

The <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/23-castlebar-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Castlebar Street development</a> will centre around the restoration of the heritage-listed Shafston House, one of Brisbane's oldest residences, originally constructed in 1851 by Reverend Robert Creyke as a single-storey cottage known as Ravenscott.

<img alt="Capella" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2b9f4ce5-638f-4d6b-8082-3ca7e4b75fca" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-09%20at%207.20.41%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=f7aeqsW_DzOJI4FymWb3lD8NptSfsP7q" />

Capella said the project aligns with its focus on heritage-led developments, with the Brisbane estate combining the restored historic residence with a new luxury apartment tower and hospitality-inspired resident amenities.

Residents will have access to the Capella Living Room, a concierge-led communal space inspired by the group's luxury hotels, alongside landscaped gardens, six swimming pools, wellness and recreation facilities.

The broader estate will also include two riverfront homes, a six-berth private marina, porte cochère arrival experience, secure basement parking and a new section of public riverwalk along the Brisbane River frontage.

The heritage Postal Depot Building will also be retained and repurposed as a guest house, in line with the revised development plans.

The project represents another evolution for the site, which Kerry Hill Architects previously described as a rare opportunity to restore one of Brisbane's most significant heritage estates while creating a new benchmark for apartment living.

"The Shafston Estate provides a once-in-a-generation opportunity to restore one of Brisbane's finest heritage precincts and to reinstate residential use as a unique site perched on the edge of Kangaroo Point," Kerry Hill Architects said in its Urban Context Report accompanying the planning submission.

"The project will celebrate excellence in sub-tropical residential design, setting a new benchmark for vertical living in Brisbane."

Verso Projects, which now has an $8.5 billion development pipeline spanning more than 6,000 dwellings across apartments, townhouses, retail and commercial projects, said the partnership with Capella would elevate the development beyond a traditional residential project.

"We feel honoured to be restoring Shafston Estate to its former glory, elevating it to new heights of luxury and excellence underpinned by Capella's distinctive service ethos and design philosophy, and making it a standout landmark in Brisbane," Verso Projects CEO Steve Laffey said.

"By partnering with Capella, globally recognised for its refined approach to luxury hospitality and deep respect for cultural and historical context, we will elevate this project beyond a residential offering into a world-class destination."

Capella Hotel Group President Roland Fasel said Brisbane's emergence as a global city made it the right location for the company's Australian residential debut.

"Brisbane is a city on the cusp of something remarkable, and Capella Residences is our commitment to being part of that story," Fasel said.

"The Capella residential experience is more than luxury. It is about a sense of belonging to a place with deep meaning."

Private appointments have now opened for the project, with a display suite expected to open in late 2026 ahead of the planned 2029 completion.

Capella to launch Brisbane's first branded residences at Shafston House, Kangaroo Point

Lewis Land's latest apartment release within its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/harbour-shores-biggera-waters-564-oxley-drive-biggera-waters-qld-4216">Harbour Shores</a> masterplan is targeting one of the Gold Coast's fastest-growing buyer groups, with almost a third of apartments at Solis priced below $1 million.

The seven-storey building at Biggera Waters will comprise 91 apartments, including 24 one-bedroom residences starting from $778,000, a price point Lewis Land says is aimed squarely at first home buyers struggling to enter the Gold Coast market.

<img alt="Harbour Shires" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e7486e37-22f6-4c92-b212-9b0622070b8f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-08%20at%209.09.34%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=W8MJwJUCf6HkIyl_EVSksnd.QI6MZryY" />

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/lewis-land-group">Lewis Land</a> Head of Development Michael Long said the developer deliberately allocated a significant proportion of the project to more affordable apartment types.

"First home buyers have been priced out of many parts of the Gold Coast, and we saw a clear opportunity to address this and play our part in a longer-term housing solution," Long said.

"That's why 24 of the 91 apartments being delivered at Solis have been designed and priced for the city's next generation of homeowners, quality one-bedroom apartments, half of which include an additional multipurpose room to maximise space and flexibility.

"This approach places 30 per cent of apartments in Solis under $1 million, and with close proximity to Harbour Town's future light rail extension connecting residents to the city's major employment and knowledge hubs, it's a win for buyers looking to secure their first property."

<img alt="Sores" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="550526d3-73ba-4710-9739-c5f4294a30ef" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-08%20at%209.09.29%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=cQQdXHt9wS0UXwZEm5Py5bH_3kAmzyhu" />

Designed by BDA Architecture, Solis will deliver a mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments, with residences ranging up to 232 sqm. Apartments feature generous balconies and contemporary finishes, while residents will have access to Harbour Shores' lagoon pool, clubhouse, tennis court, gym, yoga studio and sauna.

The focus on first home buyers resonated with purchaser Holly Humphreys, who said she and her boyfriend spent more than a year searching for their first property before shifting their attention from houses to apartments.

"We fell in love with the first house we bid on and got our hopes up, but after repeated knockbacks we learned not to get too attached," Humphreys said.

"We offered at the high end of price guides, but sales kept going even higher. That's where we really struggled and we needed to re-evaluate our budget and our expectations. Standalone houses were off the table, and we pivoted to apartments and townhouses."

Humphreys said it was encouraging to see developers recognising the growing demand from first home buyers.

"There's a growing number of young buyers looking to enter the market earlier because they understand that getting in now can make a real difference as prices continue to rise," she said.

"It's fantastic to see a developer recognise this and then actively take measures to deliver an apartment with us in mind."

Solis is the first development planned within the second stage of the Harbour Shores masterplan, with early works expected to commence in September 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=113271]

Lewis Land targets first home buyers at latest Harbour Shores release, Solis

Luxury apartment developer Abadeen has recorded $19.25 million in apartment sales across two of its Lower North Shore developments in the lead-up to the end of the financial year, headlined by the sale of a $6.75 million penthouse at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/koyo-crows-nest-5-rodborough-avenue-crows-nest-nsw-2065">KOYO in Crows Nest.</a>

The transactions also included the sale of a newly completed three-bedroom apartment at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/park-residences-cremorne-2-sutherland-street-cremorne-nsw-2090">Park Residences in Cremorne</a> for $6.35 million, with the residence selling shortly after the project's first public inspections following completion.

The sales come as completed, owner-occupier-focused apartments continue to attract strong demand across Sydney's Lower North Shore, particularly from buyers looking for certainty and immediate occupancy.

The penthouse at KOYO spans 491 sqm across a single level and was designed by architect Koichi Takada. The development is one of Abadeen's flagship boutique projects in Crows Nest.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108800 project_image_fid=370093]

Abadeen Executive Chairman and Founder Justin Brown said buyer activity lifted noticeably in the lead-up to the end of the financial year.

"We saw a clear increase in enquiry levels, inspection numbers and buyer engagement across our completed projects leading into the end of the financial year," Brown said.

"Buyers have become far more decisive over the past six months. The combination of improving confidence, limited supply and the ability to physically inspect completed residences is creating strong competition for premium apartments in the best locations."

Brown says the&nbsp;response to Park Residences following completion has been particularly strong.

"Buyers want certainty and are responding positively to the opportunity to walk through a finished product, inspect the quality firsthand and move in immediately," Brown suggested.

"Projects such as Park Residences and KOYO demonstrate that when the product is exceptional and the location is irreplaceable, buyers are prepared to act quickly."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=114246 project_image_fid=370116]

Abadeen CEO Joe Tack said quality continued to differentiate projects in the current market.

"Today's buyers are incredibly discerning," Tack said.

"They are seeking larger floorplans, premium finishes, walkability, lifestyle amenity and confidence in the developer delivering the project. Well-designed boutique developments continue to outperform because they offer something genuinely difficult to replace.

"The enquiry we are seeing across our completed and recently completed Lower North Shore portfolio is very encouraging, and we expect this momentum to continue into spring."

The sales follow increased enquiry across Abadeen's Lower North Shore portfolio which also includes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/northcote-collective-naremburn-2-northcote-street-naremburn-nsw-2065">Northcote Collective in Naremburn</a> which also completed recently.

KOYO penthouse headlines Abadeen's $19.25 million EOFY sales flurry

The City of Sydney has approved plans for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/billbergia">Billbergia Group</a> and Metrics Credit Partners’ $3.5 billion Castlereagh Place project in the heart of the Sydney CBD

The towers will be among the tallest in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/sydney-nsw-2000">Sydney</a>'s CBD, with more floors than any other residential tower in the city.&nbsp;

The 6,000 sqm site was acquired by the joint venture partners in 2024. It is the largest amalgamated land parcel in the Sydney CBD and comprises eight individual sites fronting Castlereagh, Pitt and Liverpool Streets.&nbsp;

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/castlereagh-place-sydney-324-348-pitt-street-sydney-nsw-2000">Castlereagh Place</a> will transform an underutilised city block into a landmark mixed-use destination, anchored by two 82-storey towers comprising 607 luxury residences above an 8-level podium housing a 209-room luxury hotel. A 1,000 square metre civic park on ground level features a curated mix of food, beverage and retail.

The plans have been refined over the past year to rebalance the residential and hotel offering, and reconfigure the retail footprint to create a stronger, more dynamic dining experience.

A three-level flagship building on the prominent corner of Pitt and Liverpool Streets will be the gateway to the Castlereagh Place lifestyle precinct. Set to become a Sydney icon, the building is capable of housing multiple hospitality venues.

“Castlereagh Place is designed to be the City's next great urban oasis - an energetic mixed-use precinct that pulses with life, day and night,"&nbsp;said Joseph Kinsella, Group Director of Billbergia.

"It will bring the vibrancy of places like Barangaroo and Darling Quarter into a more accessible, central destination at the very heart of Sydney."

Kinsella said the project will build on&nbsp;Sydney’s growing laneway culture with the City’s largest network of new activated lanes - an expanded, next-generation take on precincts like Angel Place, Palings Lane and Ash Street in Wynyard.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134477 project_image_fid=374401]

Castlereagh Place has been designed by architects <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fjc-studio">fjcstudio</a> in collaboration with Trias Studio, Aileen Sage and Polly Harbison Design, joint winners of an international design competition in 2018.&nbsp;

Signature design elements from the original scheme remain unchanged, while the public domain has been significantly enhanced, delivering 60 per cent more open-to-sky space.

Pedestrian access will also be enhanced through new laneways linking Pitt, Liverpool and Castlereagh Streets, drawing people into a new civic park with outdoor seating, landscaping and integrated public art.

With activated laneways supported by strong hospitality offerings, Castlereagh Place is tipped to become a vibrant new dining destination in the heart of Sydney’s CBD.

It marks the largest undertaking to date for the Billbergia and Metrics Credit Partners partnership. Together they are developing other underutilised Sydney sites into mixed-use precincts, including the $2.2 billion Concord Central and the $1.3 billion Chatswood Grand Residences.

Metrics Managing Partner and Group CEO Andrew Lockhart said Castlereagh Place is a landmark project that will redefine Sydney’s skyline.

"As the tallest residential high-rise development, the revitalised site will offer panoramic views across the CBD and surrounds. We are excited to partner with Billbergia to reinvigorate an underutilised site and create a sophisticated and contemporary mixed-use offering situated in the heart of Sydney.”

Total apartments within the towers have increased to 607 dwellings, with a focus on larger floorplans. Aligned to growing market demand, Castlereagh Place now comprises 299 three-plus-bedroom apartments, 198 two-bedroom units and 110 one-bedroom configurations.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134477 project_image_fid=374402]

Resident amenities will include an exclusive residents club containing a gym, rooftop pool, dining rooms, co-working spaces, library, golf simulator, games room, cinema room, and access to an exclusive concierge service. There will be around 500 basement car spaces below the towers.

The development will also include a state-of-the-art wellness centre, set to feature a bathhouse with magnesium pools, hot/cold plunge pools and premium amenities.

&nbsp;

According to fjcstudio, the towers will feature distinctive yet elegant architectural design reflecting Sydney’s geometry and urban character, with a network of through-site links and intimate public spaces activating the streetscape.

"Castlereagh Place is a city-making project of significant scale and ambition," said Richard Francis-Jones, Design Director at fjcstudio.

"It will create a rich urban complex of public open spaces, landscaped gardens, and vibrant laneways. Defining these new public spaces and the important streetscape of Castlereagh Street is a sequence of fine-grained, diverse retail and hotel architecture designed in collaboration with Aileen Sage, Polly Harbison Design and Trias.

“Rising above the tree-lined, human-scale streetscape are two slender residential towers that will transform the city skyline and look towards the Harbour, Hyde Park, and the Royal Botanic Garden.”

Demolition and early construction works have commenced onsite at Castlereagh Place.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134477]

Billbergia, Metrics, approved for $3.5 billion Sydney skyscrapers

First Home Buyers

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I wonder what media is going to do with the latest admission from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) that it has been grossly under-estimating the number of first-home buyers in the market.
On Wednesday this week, the ABS posted an update on its "investigation to evaluate the robustness of estimates of loans to first-home buyers".
The investigation, it said, found that "some lenders experience difficulty reporting on loans where the buyers does not receive a first home owner grant".
This, as I pointed out in my column earlier this week (and commented throughout last year, as did other writers on Property Observer), is the nub of the matter. The ABS collects data from the banks on home loans, and the method of identifying a loan applicant as a first-home buyer has always been their application for the first home owner grant.
If the applicant does not apply for a grant, the system does not identify them as a first home buyer.
Since state and territory governments across Australia stopped providing grants for established properties, the number of grant applications has dropped significantly. The research shows that most first-time buyers opt for an established home (cheaper, usually with more land and often better located) over a new home – and therefore most first-home buyers are no longer receiving grants.
The banks no longer record them as first-home buyers.
Because of the under-estimation of first-home buyers, the ABS statistics on home loans have given the appearance that first-time buyers have almost vanished from the market.
Media has leapt on this as a recurring headline, giving rise to claims that young Australians have been priced out of the market – and then, as a natural progression, generating witch hunts to find someone to blame for the situation. Negative gearing benefits to local investors and the activity of foreign investors have been popular targets.
There have been thousands of articles written in the past 12-18 months about the demise of the Great Australian Dream, all based on a fundamental falsehood, created by the ABS miscount of first-home buyers.
It's a damning indictment on journalistic standards in this country that so few have picked up on this. Nobody thought to investigate. No one asked the most basic of questions. Media rushed en masse to the cheap and easy headline – the dream is dead because young Aussies can't afford to buy.
It took a simple phone call from my office in mid-2014 to extract an admission from the ABS that their figures on first-home buyers were wrong – and why they were wrong.
Just how wrong was demonstrated by the recent NAB survey which found that 25% of established homes sold are being bought by first-time buyers and that 24% of new homes are bought by first-timers.
Journalists and editors across Australia should be hanging their heads. But you can be sure none of them will. Nor will the many economists, analysts and commentators who have seized on the ABS figures to justify their attitudes on real estate issues (such as those with an anti negative gearing stance or those opposed to foreign investment in Australian real estate).
"Users are advised to exercise caution in using this data," the ABS said on Wednesday. That warning has come at least 12 months too late. Not that it will make any difference to some.
I would bet my house that next week there will be more articles in major newspapers repeating the fiction that first-home buyers are at an all-time low. And the week after. And six months from now. People won't let the facts get in the way of an entrenched attitude or an easy sound byte.
"ABS and APRA will continue to work with lenders to improve data quality," the ABS said this week. "In the meantime, from the December 2014 issue (to be released on 11 February 2015), estimates of loans to first home buyers will include an adjustment for under-reporting of loans where the buyer did not receive a first home owner grant.
"An Information Paper will be released on the ABS website on 4 February 2015 explaining changes to the method of estimating first home buyers' data and the extent of revisions.   The ABS will continue to update the method as lenders progressively improve their reporting."
Too little, too late. Australia is awash from misinformation on the real estate industry and the most extreme example has been the first-home buyer miscount and all the column inches of inaccurate comment and posturing it has generated.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.
Terry will be participating in a webinar on 'The Best and Worst for 2015: Top 5 Hotspots and 5 Places to Avoid' on 3 February.
Click here to <a href="/news">register now</a>.
 
 
 
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

First home buyers are still here, but good research has gone missing: Terry Ryder

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<div id="post-body-9168898991581718703" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>The ABS produced its muchly awaited revised first home buyer numbers yesterday. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As flagged previously, the numbers are a bit lower than previously reported, although the month to month movements remained broadly consistent with what we have already seen. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The statistics more or less confirm what we already knew: that there are fewer first homebuyer loans being written than there were in the lead up to the financial crisis (though actually not that many fewer Australia-wide). </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/10/12/B1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/10/12/B1.jpg" alt=""></div>
 <div>Unfortunately the figures don't shed any light on how many first-time buyers have elected to buy an investment property instead of a home (which the NAB survey implies more than accounts for the downward shift in first homebuyer numbers). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And nor does these series cover first homes bought without finance i.e. for cash, thanks to the so-termed 'bank of Mum and Dad'.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Unlike Britain, Australia doesn't have agonizingly high rates of inheritance tax, and thus in my opinion inequality is likely to increase in favour of those lucky folks with wealthy parents. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sydney effect</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Drilling down to the state level, not at all surprisingly the impact of higher prices on first homebuyers has been felt most keenly in Sydney. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Not that we actually needed a graph to confirm this! Even the majority of middle-aged peeps have given up trying to buy homes in the more desirable suburbs, while investors have practically been running riot since mid-2012. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/10/12/B2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
 <div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/10/12/B2.jpg" alt=""></div>
 Elsewhere there doesn't seem to me to have been all that much of a change. <div>Loan sizes revised down</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The data for the average first homebuyer loan size has been revised down for recent years, although the chart patterns still tend to mirror the averages for non-first homebuyers. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>One interesting observation here is that the average first homebuyer loan size over the past ten years has not increased at the same rate as median house prices. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/10/12/B3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
 <div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/10/12/B3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>You could read any number of things into this statistic (and no doubt people will!). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>For example, the figures could support the recently held argument that parents are tipping in far greater deposits than they were during 2008 and 2009, being the period when the first home owners grant (FHOG) was doubled. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It has to be said that the divergence does seem to begin at the right time for that to be the case.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Anyhoo, here are the figures at the state level, which I've just tidied up on a 3mMA basis to smooth out some of the jagged edges (the chart'd give you a headache otherwise). </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/10/12/B4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
 <div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/10/12/B4.jpg" alt=""></div>
 <div>First homebuyers look to be steadily gearing up again in Queensland, and particularly in Tassie of late, as the Hobart market tightens and rents rise.  </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In 2014, first homebuyers in Western Australia were taking on larger loans on average than anywhere in the country. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And in 2015, the Northern Territory became the very epicentre of first homebuyer extravagance. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This is no longer the case - in either location. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
</div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

What's going down with first home buyers? Pete Wargent

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After several months of uncertainty and low confidence levels in the Alice Springs residential space, it is likely the market should see further stabilisation throughout 2017, according to HTW’s February 2017 update.
The valuation firm says the unit market has seen the most volatility and experienced two years of price reductions.
For this segment, that has reduced the 10-year compound annual growth rate for median prices for this segment to 4.06% in the December quarter 2016 from 7.57% in the same period in December 2014.
The house segment for the December quarter indicated a 10-year compound annual growth rate of 5.29% down from 6.15%.
“Of greatest interest will be the older style, circa 1980s two bedroom unit segment which has been hardest hit with significant price drops of up to 30% over 2014 and 2015 from the highs of 2010 and 2011,” says HTW.
“We have seen a few more sales in this segment (unit sales were at 158 in the year to December 2016, up from 134 in the previous period) providing some indication that some level of confidence is returning.
“We note that while this segment should still be treated with caution for investors with rent levels still showing reductions, for first home buyers, price levels in some cases are at 2009 levels, showing a great opportunity to enter the market.”
A four bedroom house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nt-alice+springs-124486430" target="_blank">24 The Fairway</a>, Alice Springs (above) has been listed for over $1,000,000.
Similarly a two bedroom house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-nt-alice+springs-107622519" target="_blank">15 Tietkins Avenue</a>, Alice Springs (below) was sold for $427,000.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/22/15%20Tietkins%20Avenue.jpg" alt="">
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Alice Springs' house prices creating chances for first home buyers: HTW

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Tamworth is seeing a lot of first time buyers in both the owner-occupier and investor sectors in comparison to other cities, according to HTW’s Month in Review: March 2017. 
The valuation firm says the $250,000 to $350,000 range is the most active for these buyers, with many choosing to buy within established suburbs and renovating older dwellings.
Outside of this range the buyers are choosing to build rather then buy.
“The incentives offered (ie. no stamp duty, $10,000 grant) mean they will save money when compared to buying a house of a similar calibre,” the report says.
“There is strong evidence of young people buying in Tamworth, particularly building homes, who come from Sydney and as they cannot afford to buy there.”
HTW advises buyers to choose their location very carefully.
“While prices in several suburbs can be very enticing for young buyers, ie. less then $200,000, these areas experience little to no capital growth and are not a good long term investment,” it says.
“Parts of west Tamworth and south Tamworth should be avoided as they have a strong housing commission population and historically experience very little growth when compared to non housing commission areas within the same suburb.
“The mistakes we are seeing include going too big too soon, with many first time buyers who choose to build trying to build their ‘forever home’ and placing themselves in a situation where they struggle with mortgage affordability.
“With the affordable options of Tamworth it is best to research and remember that this house will most likely not be a forever home for them, so spending $700,000 on a first home in the best suburb is not needed.”
A five bedroom house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-tamworth-124623126" target="_blank">357 Armidale Road</a>, Tamworth (above) has been listed for between $330,000 to $350,000.
Similarly a three bedroom house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-tamworth-124859686" target="_blank">14 Aberdeen Street</a>, Tamworth (below) has been listed for $270,000.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/09/14%20Aberdeen%20Street.jpg" alt="">
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Tamworth seeing influx of first time buyers from Sydney

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First home buyers should pay attention to market conditions, not the incentives on offer.
According to recently released housing finance data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the volume of new loans to first home buyers in New South Wales and Victoria has climbed substantially over recent months as value growth has slowed and even begun to fall in Sydney and Melbourne. 
First home buyers must be vigilant about purchasing homes and not just be lured into buying at the peak of the market because of attractive incentives.
In New South Wales, from 1 July 2017 first home buyers don’t have to pay stamp duty for both new and existing homes for properties up to $650,000.
Stamp duty payable is reduced for buyers paying between $650,000 and $800,000.  In Victoria, if you buy a new or established home from July 1 2017 no stamp duty is payable on homes worth less than $600,000 and stamp duty is reduced for properties worth between $600,000 and $750,000.
The removal of stamp duty has resulted in a substantial increase in first home buyer housing finance commitments. 
Over the six months from July to December 2017 there were 14,279 first home buyer finance commitments in New South Wales and 18,675 in Victoria.  To put this into some sort of perspective, over the six months prior to the new incentives going live there had been 7,891 first home buyer housing finance commitments in New South Wales and 12,683 commitments in Victoria.  This represents an increase in first home buyer volumes over the two six month periods before and after the changes to incentives of 81.0% in New South Wales and 47.2% in Victoria.
Since the stamp duty changes, average loan sizes have increased by 1.3% in New South Wales compared to an increase of 1.1% over the previous six months.  This seemingly suggests that the first home buyers entering the market are not using the removal of the stamp duty barrier to borrow more. 
In Victoria, it is a bit of a different story with average first home buyer loan sizes increasing 7.0% over the past six months compared to a 2.7% increase over the previous six months.  This would seem to suggest in Victoria, the stamp duty concessions are leading to mortgagees borrowing more.
The most concerning thing for any potential first home buyer in the current New South Wales and Victoria markets should be the lure of entering a market which has been growing rapidly for many years.  In fact, recent data for Sydney and Melbourne indicates that values are now declining. 
Across all of New South Wales, values have fallen -2.4% from their August 2017 peak to January 2018 with values -3.1% lower in Sydney and not yet declining in regional New South Wales.  In Victoria, values are -0.1% lower than their November 2017 peak with declines of -0.4% in Melbourne and no declines as yet in regional Victoria.  An important point to note is that the rate of value growth is slowing in regional areas of New South Wales and Victoria although the slowdown is greater in regional New South Wales to-date.
While those declines may sound quite minor, first home buyers are generally most sensitive to changes in interest rates.  Although the cash rate is expected to be on hold until early 2019, the combination of already falling dwelling values and potentially higher mortgage rates in the medium-term, these factors should raise some alarm bells for potential buyers. 
For first home buyers there may be a sense that the removal of stamp duty along with the falling share of investors in the market creates the opportunity for entry however, ideally you do not want to be buying into a market which has only recently entered a downturn. 
The best bet for potential first home buyers may not be to jump at the incentives which are currently available.  With values declining and investor demand continuing to trend lower a better option may be to remain on the sidelines somewhat longer as values potentially continue to slide.  By doing this you potentially avoid going into negative equity immediately, you potentially buy at a lower price and you have time to save an even larger deposit for your mortgage. 
Furthermore, for well qualified borrowers with substantial deposits banks are competing heavily and offering substantial discounts for owner occupiers taking out principal and interest mortgages so if you take time and shop around you may be able to get a really good mortgage rate.
Cameron Kusher is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.corelogic.com.au/taxonomy/term/28">here</a>.
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Market conditions more important than incentives on offer for FHB's

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GUEST OBSERVATION
It won’t help enough, but it will get some people their keys. 
The new <a href="https://www.liberal.org.au/latest-news/2019/05/12/helping-australians-buy-their-first-home" target="_blank">First Home Loan Deposit Scheme</a> announced the Coalition, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-quick-on-the-draw-labor-matches-morrisons-first-home-owners-scheme-116969" target="_blank">instantly backed by Labor</a>, is likely to be popular among those on the cusp of buying their first home.
It’ll be open to singles earning up to A$125,000 and couples earning up to A$200,000 who have saved at least 5% of the value of the home. The government-owned National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation will partner with private lenders to put up as much as another 15% of the value of the home to take the deposit to 20%.
However, the scheme is capped at <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/no-free-money-morrison-dismisses-concerns-over-first-home-buyer-scheme-20190513-p51moj" target="_blank">10,000 home buyers per year</a>, roughly one tenth of the number of Australians who bought first homes in 2018.
It’ll help them - the latest survey shows that <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6553.0" target="_blank">more than half of first homebuyers</a> needed financial assistance outside of their own savings to get their deposit. The <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14036090120617" target="_blank">benefits of home ownership</a> have been widely documented. But will it do enough?
Source of deposits
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274299/original/file-20190514-60557-572nt0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
<a class="source" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6553.0" target="_blank">Authors' own calculations from ABS Survey of Income and Housing 2013-14</a>
An often-expressed concern is that such a scheme will <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/13/first-homebuyers-scheme-who-gets-it-and-will-it-work-explainer" target="_blank">bid up house prices</a>. However, it is means-tested, making it much less vunerable to this criticism than the non-means-tested <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Former_Committees/hsaf/report/c09" target="_blank">First Home Owners’ Grant</a>.
And is also capped at 10,000 loans per year, giving it little scope to price pressure.
However, it may not be means-tested enough.
Consider the population subgroup that broadly comprises aspiring homebuyers who qualify for the scheme: renters aged 25-34 years who meet the scheme’s income criteria and whose financial wealth is between 5% and 20% of the lowest-priced quarter of houses for sale in the borad area in which they live.
In the most-recent <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6503.0" target="_blank">2015 ABS Survey of Income and Housing</a> there were 127,000 such potential eligible first home buyers, more than 12 times the 10,000 cap.
The cap is a practical necessity of course, needed to limit impacts on prices and prevent a cost blowout. But the weakness of the scheme is that the cap will be filled on a “<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/no-free-money-morrison-dismisses-concerns-over-first-home-buyer-scheme-20190513-p51moj" target="_blank">first come, first serve</a>” basis, without distinguishing between those who actually need help and those who are likely to meet the deposit requirement anyway.
The graph shows that some 40% of potential first home buyers have managed to save a deposit amounting to not much more than 5% of the home value. Only 7% have a 20% deposit or something near it.
Potential users of the scheme, by amount of deposit saved
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274312/original/file-20190514-60567-1rjotju.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
Deposit saved by renters aged 25-34 who meet the scheme’s eligibility criteria, per cent of lower quartile property prices in area of residence, 2015-16. <a class="source" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6503.0" target="_blank">Authors' own calculations from the ABS Survey of Income and Housing 2015-16</a>
The Coalition could get more bang for its buck within the cap by targeting those in greater need of assistance; for example by prioritising those who cannot access the so-called <a href="https://theconversation.com/not-everyone-wins-from-the-bank-of-mum-and-dad-73842" target="_blank">Bank of Mum and Dad</a>. Not everyone has access to wealthy parents.
The Great Australian Dream of owning a home has been fading fast, and not just for young people. Naturally, the scheme’s details of the scheme require scrutiny. But overall, it provides a welcome acknowledgement (by both major parties) that the affordability crisis facing young people has not waned despite recent house price declines.
The scheme will restore the opportunity – at least to some – to accumulate wealth in property and enjoy the <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14036090120617">security and other benefits</a> that home ownership brings.
But seriously addressing housing affordability will ultimately require a bigger intervention.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117073/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/rachel-ong-viforj-113482" target="_blank">Rachel Ong ViforJ</a>, Professor of Economics, School of Economics, Finance and Property, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/curtin-university-873" target="_blank">Curtin University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/small-but-well-formed-the-new-home-deposit-scheme-will-help-and-its-unlikely-to-push-up-prices-117073" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

The new home deposit scheme will help, and it’s unlikely to push up prices

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Young adults not only struggle to buy a home, many struggle to secure any kind of independent housing. This contributes to a cycle of living in precarious and informal housing and to a growing gap between their current situation and their short and longer-term housing aspirations.
A <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/final-reports/318" target="_blank">report released today</a> by the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (<a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/about-us/who-we-are-and-what-we-do" target="_blank">AHURI</a>) adds nuance to debates about generational change and housing by examining how housing aspirations differ among emerging adults (18-24 years) and in early adulthood (25-34 years). For example, emerging adults are more likely than the older cohort to prefer living in an apartment.
By early adulthood, the housing aspirations gap is greatest for individuals in the private rental sector, particularly those on higher incomes, and narrowest for home owners. Home buyers on low to moderate incomes are most happy with their housing.
While long-held values around the ideal of home ownership prevail, these are not as persistent as for past generations. The ideal differs according to age, education and the quality and security of current living arrangements. But having somewhere safe and secure to call home was the top priority across all young adults.
Aspirations change with stage of life
An extended phase of dependence to semi-dependence shapes the housing aspirations of young adults. This involves either remaining in the family home or sharing with others.
In 2015-16, the <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6503.0" target="_blank">ABS Survey of Income and Housing</a> revealed that only one in six (17%) young adults (18-24 years) lived independently. Two-thirds (66%) lived with parents. Around a third of young adults (25-34 years) are also opting to remain or move back with parents or live in shared housing.
While these living arrangements reflect concerns about housing affordability, they are also used as a strategy to pursue other aspirations, such as education.
What do young adults want in their housing?
The AHURI <a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/research-in-progress/ahuri-inquiries/evidence-based-policy-inquiry-51170" target="_blank">research</a> includes a nationally representative survey of more than 2,400 Australians aged 18-34 years. It was supported by focus groups and in-depth interviews, including with Indigenous Australians, in Western Australia, New South Wales and Victoria.
Home ownership was the ideal tenure for 60% of emerging adults (18-24). By early adulthood (25-34) the proportion had climbed to 70%. The ideal of home ownership was lower (61%) for those still living in the family home by early adulthood compared with higher-income couples living independently (80%).
By early adulthood, educational status becomes a key marker of whether home ownership is considered possible. Nearly two-thirds (61%) of households with a tertiary-educated member believed they could buy a house within five years. This compares with just over a third of those with an education to year 12 (36%) and less than a quarter (23%) of those with an education to year 11 or below.
The preference for apartment living falls with age. About a third (34%) of emerging adults reported this as their ideal, compared with 21% of early adults.
Young adults also want more space. The largest share of both emerging (32%) and early adults (43%) indicated that a four-bedroom house is ideal. This compares to just 20% of those over 55 years of age who wanted four or more bedrooms.
How large is the housing aspirations gap?
For emerging adults (18-24), living in a group household typically met short-term (82%) but not longer-term (25%) aspirations. Similarly, living with parents mostly met short-term (76%) but not longer-term (30%) aspirations.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287454/original/file-20190809-144851-1h1mcvj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287454/original/file-20190809-144851-1h1mcvj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287454/original/file-20190809-144851-1h1mcvj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Australian Housing Aspirations Survey 2018, Author provided
By early adulthood (25-34) the housing aspirations gap is greatest for individuals in the private rental sector, particularly those on higher incomes. For higher-income groups, their current private rental housing met the short-term aspirations of just over three-quarters (76%) but only 20% for longer-term aspirations.
The aspirations gap is narrowest for home owners. Home buyers on low to moderate incomes were most happy with their housing in the short-term (92%) and longer-term (60%).
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287457/original/file-20190809-144843-1v1u54g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287457/original/file-20190809-144843-1v1u54g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287457/original/file-20190809-144843-1v1u54g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Housing Aspirations Survey 2018, Author provided
What can be done to close the aspirations gap?
Very few people are actively planning for their housing futures. Affordability and the deposit gap, insufficient income, employment insecurity and “waiting for the market to settle down” all impact on achieving longer-term aspirations. In the short-term, not being in a preferred location, high mobility and insecurity matter most.
Housing policy needs to become more realistic about the housing futures of young Australians. Achieving both short- and longer-term aspirations requires new policy frameworks that can enable young people to move towards attaining “secure independence”.
Public debate about the housing aspirations of young adults gained prominence during the federal election with <a href="https://theconversation.com/small-but-well-formed-the-new-home-deposit-scheme-will-help-and-its-unlikely-to-push-up-prices-117073" target="_blank">promises of a targeted scheme</a> to help first home buyers. Proposed first home owner deposit schemes are an important step in meeting aspirations, particularly among private renters with higher and secure incomes.
But before young people even contemplate home ownership they need greater support in making key life transitions, such as from education to work, via more continuous and integrated packages of housing assistance.
We also need continued reforms to ensure a fairer and more secure private rental sector with short and longer-term leasing options close to employment and training, and with stable rents.
There needs to be diversity and real choice in dwelling types, size and locations and scaling up of more sustainable and niche models of co-housing.
As for young people locked out of home ownership in the long-term, they need a way to build an investment nest egg and to access quality social and public rental housing.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/121431/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
Sharon Parkinson, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Urban Transitions, Swinburne University of Technology
Amity James, Senior Lecturer, School of Economics, Finance and Property, Curtin University
Steven Rowley, Head of School, Economics, Finance and Property, Curtin University. Director, Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, Curtin Research Centre, Curtin University
Wendy Stone, Associate Professor, Centre for Urban Transitions and Director, Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute Swinburne Research Centre, Swinburne University of Technology
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/first-home-buyer-schemes-arent-enough-to-meet-young-adults-housing-aspirations-121431" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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First home buyer schemes aren’t enough to meet young adults’ housing aspirations

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RE/MAX Western Australia’s managing director Geoff Baldwin has spoken out against potential changes to current stamp duty dispensations for first home buyers, saying that if the relief was decreased or abolished there would be dire effects across the market.
 “The negative affect the ceasing of stamp duty relief for first home buyers would be extremely damaging however, when this segment of the market stagnates it ripples up through all price ranges and the effect would be crippling”, said Baldwin.
“If you take a line through New South Wales and Victoria where subsidies have been abolished, first home buyer activity has dropped to 8% and 12% respectively, compared to the current 22% in Western Australia (RP Data).
“Historically, in a healthy market, first home buyers account for around 25 to 30% of all buyers.
“The established home market has already taken a massive hit through the government’s recent actions in changing the First Home Owner Grant whereby those building new homes receive $7,000 and people buying established only $3,000.
“To abolish first home owner stamp duty concessions would be extremely short sighted as it will a negative impact the whole market and hence the Industry, just at a time where we are again experiencing some prosperity in the property sector.”
 
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jrichardson-uRX5hFdKfN

Rumoured cuts to stamp duty relief for first home buyers would be “extremely damaging”: RE/MAX

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From a first home buyer perspective, there is something very wrong with the housing market in Victoria.
In February, the most recent data available from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that the total number of dwellings financed for first home buyers had sunk to a 23 year low.
In February there were 1,402 dwellings financed for first home buyers which  represented a mere 11.76% of the entire number financed. This was lower than in January when first home buyers represented 12.7% of the market and the lowest in raw terms since July 1991 when the population of Victoria was 31% less than it is today.
The reasons behind  this result are debatable. Some will say that the causes are high property prices, but this alone is not borne out by the data. When home values last peaked, in October of 2010, the proportion of first home buyers was 18.2%. In real terms, prices are not significantly different at this point which suggests that the problem is not entirely the price.
Others point to the fact that rents are not rising and suggest that intending first home buyers are preferring to rent.
Another perspective is that the change to financial assistance for first home buyers has caused many to not enter the market. At the same time as the large step down in the proportion of first home buyers occurred in the middle of last year, the $7,000 First Home Buyer Grant for established homes came to an end.  This alone cannot be the only issue as at the same time stamp duty was being progressively lowered for first home buyers.
The reasoning for this change in the market is probably a combination of all  issues mentioned and if the market  remains this way, it will represent a significant structural change in the local housing market.
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rlarocca-zWhvjay44N

First home buyers in Victoria lowest in 23 years

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First home buyer data continues to be understated.
A point which has been much discussed over the past year: the non-sensical figures being reported as "fact" for levels of first home buyer activity.
Even until relatively recently the Reserve Bank (RBA) was producing stats for first homebuyers which suggested that numbers were abnormally low after a spike caused by home buyer grants.
<img src="/images/2014/10/13/graph1.png" alt="">
Some time ago, however, the Reserve gave up on reporting those figures since it was quite clear to impartial observers that with the withdrawal of first home buyer grants, a significant proportion of first time buyers were not being recorded as such.
For example in this month's Chart Pack, the RBA only reports the following, which is a strong and rising market. With no credible first home buyer data available, it is no longer reported:
<img src="/images/2014/10/13/graph2.gif" alt="">
What gives?
Unfortunately, despite this all being well known about for yonks, this has not stopped commentators from continuing to post the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) figures uncritically, as though to imply that all first home buyers have been frozen out of the housing market by greedy investors.
While there has no doubt been a fair element of this happening, and particularly so at the margin and in inner city locations in Sydney and Melbourne, it never really made sense to suggest that first home buyers were casually sitting out of a rising market with disinterest. History suggests that is unlikely.
Had banks been requiring 20% deposits, thenyes, clearly this would have happened. But, unlike in the UK, lenders have generally not been requiring large deposits at all and high Loan to Value Ratio (LVR) loans have remained widely available (and in any case, outside Sydney, property price growth just hasn't been that strong over recent years), and thus unsurprisingly, first home buyers are still buying.
Look at the reported data for Western Australia, for example! A huge segment of the market has been first timers, between a quarter and a fifth of all buyers.
Listening to the data critically and understanding its message - generally, there have robust property markets, particularly in cities like Sydney - would surely lead you to the right conclusion.
Another point, which I touched on here back in March, is that a significant number of first time buyers in Sydney, have been buying investment properties as their first step on the ladder, thereby never being recorded as first-timers at all. Indeed, I have known from my own client base that it's a cast iron fact that the number of first homebuyers is understated... the real question is only "by how much?"
The problem is that we now have no true way of knowing the quantum of the issue, if indeed there is much of an issue on a national basis. Of course, there are always anecdotes about first homebuyers being outbid by "the Chinese" (i.e. anyone of Asian appearance), and investors do compete with first home buyers for properties (it's a market - that's life) but anecdotes also frequently lead to poor conclusions.
This article continues on the next page. Please click below.
 
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
 
ABS confirms under-reporting
Not at all surprisingly, here is what the ABS reported in its Housing Finance release on Friday:
"A preliminary investigation has been conducted to evaluate the robustness of estimates of loans to first home buyers. In collecting this information, lenders are asked to report all loans to first home buyers. Concerns have been raised that under-reporting could occur if some lenders were only able to accurately report on those buyers receiving a first home buyer grant.
"Most data on first home buyers are collected by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA). The investigation indicates that some lenders experience difficulty reporting on loans where the buyer is not receiving a first home buyers grant. Estimates of loans to first home buyers are therefore under review and users are advised to exercise caution in referencing this data.
"The ABS is working with APRA to explore options to make it easier for lenders to report correctly in future. In the meantime, the ABS is further investigating the potential for under reporting first home buyer data and the feasibility, if necessary, of estimating the extent of under reporting and adjusting the first home buyers estimates accordingly. The outcomes from the investigation will be published on the ABS website."
No shocks there.
From Shane Oliver, Chief Economist and Head of Financial Strategy at AMP:
<img src="/images/2014/10/13/AMP.jpg" alt="">
Indeed. As a sometime "first-time investor" (and thus, never being recorded as a "first time buyer") himself many years ago, to his credit Shane was always well aware of this issue.
Hot sectors of the market
Over the past year we have bought a lot of properties for clients in Wollstonecraft, Waverton and other Sydney lower north shore suburbs such as Neutral Bay.
The Sydney north shore market has been absolutely flying in 2014, with some properties recording huge gains.
A run-down wreck at 47a King Street, Wollstonecraft sold yesterday for an astonishing $2,230,000, a monster $830,000 over the reserve price. Meanwhile, 2 bedroom unit 14/4 Gillies Street in Wollstonecraft sold for $780,000, implying an uplift in the market of well over 10 percent in a matter of fewer than 6 months. John Howard will be pleased.
People have tried to torture the Sydney data a little lately to show that the market has been relatively soft (generally, it hasn't), but if you look at what has happened to individual properties, particularly in suburbs such as these, price action has been very hot.
Indeed, gains over the past year have been exceptional on the north shore in suburbs such as Milsons Point, Crows Nest and even Hunters Hill and a number if others, as well as in our old favourite inner west suburb, Erskineville, which notched a yet further 25% of capital growth in the past year. Huge returns.
<img src="/images/2014/10/13/graph4.jpg" alt="">
 
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