A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.

The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.

The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.

The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.

Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.

"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.

"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."

<img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" />

Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.

Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.

Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.

"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.

"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."

Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.

Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.

Joel Robinson

Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

The long-planned transformation of Brisbane's historic Shafston Estate has taken another major step, with Capella Hotel Group announced as the luxury hospitality partner behind what will become Brisbane's first branded residences.

The project, to be known as Capella Residences Brisbane, is being delivered by Verso Projects at the landmark Kangaroo Point riverfront estate, with completion targeted for 2029.

The announcement follows a series of planning changes to the project over recent years. The site was originally approved in 2023 for a 15-level, 37-apartment development designed by Rothelowman for Burgundy Group before Verso Projects took over the 10,070 sqm riverfront holding and lodged revised plans with Kerry Hill Architects to increase the development to a 25-level tower with 51 apartments.

The latest announcement confirms Capella Hotel Group will bring its branded residential offering to the project, marking just the second Capella Residences development globally after Seoul, and the group's first branded residential project in Australia.

The <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/23-castlebar-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Castlebar Street development</a> will centre around the restoration of the heritage-listed Shafston House, one of Brisbane's oldest residences, originally constructed in 1851 by Reverend Robert Creyke as a single-storey cottage known as Ravenscott.

<img alt="Capella" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2b9f4ce5-638f-4d6b-8082-3ca7e4b75fca" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-09%20at%207.20.41%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=f7aeqsW_DzOJI4FymWb3lD8NptSfsP7q" />

Capella said the project aligns with its focus on heritage-led developments, with the Brisbane estate combining the restored historic residence with a new luxury apartment tower and hospitality-inspired resident amenities.

Residents will have access to the Capella Living Room, a concierge-led communal space inspired by the group's luxury hotels, alongside landscaped gardens, six swimming pools, wellness and recreation facilities.

The broader estate will also include two riverfront homes, a six-berth private marina, porte cochère arrival experience, secure basement parking and a new section of public riverwalk along the Brisbane River frontage.

The heritage Postal Depot Building will also be retained and repurposed as a guest house, in line with the revised development plans.

The project represents another evolution for the site, which Kerry Hill Architects previously described as a rare opportunity to restore one of Brisbane's most significant heritage estates while creating a new benchmark for apartment living.

"The Shafston Estate provides a once-in-a-generation opportunity to restore one of Brisbane's finest heritage precincts and to reinstate residential use as a unique site perched on the edge of Kangaroo Point," Kerry Hill Architects said in its Urban Context Report accompanying the planning submission.

"The project will celebrate excellence in sub-tropical residential design, setting a new benchmark for vertical living in Brisbane."

Verso Projects, which now has an $8.5 billion development pipeline spanning more than 6,000 dwellings across apartments, townhouses, retail and commercial projects, said the partnership with Capella would elevate the development beyond a traditional residential project.

"We feel honoured to be restoring Shafston Estate to its former glory, elevating it to new heights of luxury and excellence underpinned by Capella's distinctive service ethos and design philosophy, and making it a standout landmark in Brisbane," Verso Projects CEO Steve Laffey said.

"By partnering with Capella, globally recognised for its refined approach to luxury hospitality and deep respect for cultural and historical context, we will elevate this project beyond a residential offering into a world-class destination."

Capella Hotel Group President Roland Fasel said Brisbane's emergence as a global city made it the right location for the company's Australian residential debut.

"Brisbane is a city on the cusp of something remarkable, and Capella Residences is our commitment to being part of that story," Fasel said.

"The Capella residential experience is more than luxury. It is about a sense of belonging to a place with deep meaning."

Private appointments have now opened for the project, with a display suite expected to open in late 2026 ahead of the planned 2029 completion.

Capella to launch Brisbane's first branded residences at Shafston House, Kangaroo Point

Lewis Land's latest apartment release within its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/harbour-shores-biggera-waters-564-oxley-drive-biggera-waters-qld-4216">Harbour Shores</a> masterplan is targeting one of the Gold Coast's fastest-growing buyer groups, with almost a third of apartments at Solis priced below $1 million.

The seven-storey building at Biggera Waters will comprise 91 apartments, including 24 one-bedroom residences starting from $778,000, a price point Lewis Land says is aimed squarely at first home buyers struggling to enter the Gold Coast market.

<img alt="Harbour Shires" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e7486e37-22f6-4c92-b212-9b0622070b8f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-08%20at%209.09.34%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=W8MJwJUCf6HkIyl_EVSksnd.QI6MZryY" />

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/lewis-land-group">Lewis Land</a> Head of Development Michael Long said the developer deliberately allocated a significant proportion of the project to more affordable apartment types.

"First home buyers have been priced out of many parts of the Gold Coast, and we saw a clear opportunity to address this and play our part in a longer-term housing solution," Long said.

"That's why 24 of the 91 apartments being delivered at Solis have been designed and priced for the city's next generation of homeowners, quality one-bedroom apartments, half of which include an additional multipurpose room to maximise space and flexibility.

"This approach places 30 per cent of apartments in Solis under $1 million, and with close proximity to Harbour Town's future light rail extension connecting residents to the city's major employment and knowledge hubs, it's a win for buyers looking to secure their first property."

<img alt="Sores" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="550526d3-73ba-4710-9739-c5f4294a30ef" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-08%20at%209.09.29%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=cQQdXHt9wS0UXwZEm5Py5bH_3kAmzyhu" />

Designed by BDA Architecture, Solis will deliver a mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments, with residences ranging up to 232 sqm. Apartments feature generous balconies and contemporary finishes, while residents will have access to Harbour Shores' lagoon pool, clubhouse, tennis court, gym, yoga studio and sauna.

The focus on first home buyers resonated with purchaser Holly Humphreys, who said she and her boyfriend spent more than a year searching for their first property before shifting their attention from houses to apartments.

"We fell in love with the first house we bid on and got our hopes up, but after repeated knockbacks we learned not to get too attached," Humphreys said.

"We offered at the high end of price guides, but sales kept going even higher. That's where we really struggled and we needed to re-evaluate our budget and our expectations. Standalone houses were off the table, and we pivoted to apartments and townhouses."

Humphreys said it was encouraging to see developers recognising the growing demand from first home buyers.

"There's a growing number of young buyers looking to enter the market earlier because they understand that getting in now can make a real difference as prices continue to rise," she said.

"It's fantastic to see a developer recognise this and then actively take measures to deliver an apartment with us in mind."

Solis is the first development planned within the second stage of the Harbour Shores masterplan, with early works expected to commence in September 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=113271]

Lewis Land targets first home buyers at latest Harbour Shores release, Solis

Luxury apartment developer Abadeen has recorded $19.25 million in apartment sales across two of its Lower North Shore developments in the lead-up to the end of the financial year, headlined by the sale of a $6.75 million penthouse at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/koyo-crows-nest-5-rodborough-avenue-crows-nest-nsw-2065">KOYO in Crows Nest.</a>

The transactions also included the sale of a newly completed three-bedroom apartment at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/park-residences-cremorne-2-sutherland-street-cremorne-nsw-2090">Park Residences in Cremorne</a> for $6.35 million, with the residence selling shortly after the project's first public inspections following completion.

The sales come as completed, owner-occupier-focused apartments continue to attract strong demand across Sydney's Lower North Shore, particularly from buyers looking for certainty and immediate occupancy.

The penthouse at KOYO spans 491 sqm across a single level and was designed by architect Koichi Takada. The development is one of Abadeen's flagship boutique projects in Crows Nest.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108800 project_image_fid=370093]

Abadeen Executive Chairman and Founder Justin Brown said buyer activity lifted noticeably in the lead-up to the end of the financial year.

"We saw a clear increase in enquiry levels, inspection numbers and buyer engagement across our completed projects leading into the end of the financial year," Brown said.

"Buyers have become far more decisive over the past six months. The combination of improving confidence, limited supply and the ability to physically inspect completed residences is creating strong competition for premium apartments in the best locations."

Brown says the&nbsp;response to Park Residences following completion has been particularly strong.

"Buyers want certainty and are responding positively to the opportunity to walk through a finished product, inspect the quality firsthand and move in immediately," Brown suggested.

"Projects such as Park Residences and KOYO demonstrate that when the product is exceptional and the location is irreplaceable, buyers are prepared to act quickly."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=114246 project_image_fid=370116]

Abadeen CEO Joe Tack said quality continued to differentiate projects in the current market.

"Today's buyers are incredibly discerning," Tack said.

"They are seeking larger floorplans, premium finishes, walkability, lifestyle amenity and confidence in the developer delivering the project. Well-designed boutique developments continue to outperform because they offer something genuinely difficult to replace.

"The enquiry we are seeing across our completed and recently completed Lower North Shore portfolio is very encouraging, and we expect this momentum to continue into spring."

The sales follow increased enquiry across Abadeen's Lower North Shore portfolio which also includes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/northcote-collective-naremburn-2-northcote-street-naremburn-nsw-2065">Northcote Collective in Naremburn</a> which also completed recently.

KOYO penthouse headlines Abadeen's $19.25 million EOFY sales flurry

The City of Sydney has approved plans for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/billbergia">Billbergia Group</a> and Metrics Credit Partners’ $3.5 billion Castlereagh Place project in the heart of the Sydney CBD

The towers will be among the tallest in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/sydney-nsw-2000">Sydney</a>'s CBD, with more floors than any other residential tower in the city.&nbsp;

The 6,000 sqm site was acquired by the joint venture partners in 2024. It is the largest amalgamated land parcel in the Sydney CBD and comprises eight individual sites fronting Castlereagh, Pitt and Liverpool Streets.&nbsp;

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/castlereagh-place-sydney-324-348-pitt-street-sydney-nsw-2000">Castlereagh Place</a> will transform an underutilised city block into a landmark mixed-use destination, anchored by two 82-storey towers comprising 607 luxury residences above an 8-level podium housing a 209-room luxury hotel. A 1,000 square metre civic park on ground level features a curated mix of food, beverage and retail.

The plans have been refined over the past year to rebalance the residential and hotel offering, and reconfigure the retail footprint to create a stronger, more dynamic dining experience.

A three-level flagship building on the prominent corner of Pitt and Liverpool Streets will be the gateway to the Castlereagh Place lifestyle precinct. Set to become a Sydney icon, the building is capable of housing multiple hospitality venues.

“Castlereagh Place is designed to be the City's next great urban oasis - an energetic mixed-use precinct that pulses with life, day and night,"&nbsp;said Joseph Kinsella, Group Director of Billbergia.

"It will bring the vibrancy of places like Barangaroo and Darling Quarter into a more accessible, central destination at the very heart of Sydney."

Kinsella said the project will build on&nbsp;Sydney’s growing laneway culture with the City’s largest network of new activated lanes - an expanded, next-generation take on precincts like Angel Place, Palings Lane and Ash Street in Wynyard.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134477 project_image_fid=374401]

Castlereagh Place has been designed by architects <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fjc-studio">fjcstudio</a> in collaboration with Trias Studio, Aileen Sage and Polly Harbison Design, joint winners of an international design competition in 2018.&nbsp;

Signature design elements from the original scheme remain unchanged, while the public domain has been significantly enhanced, delivering 60 per cent more open-to-sky space.

Pedestrian access will also be enhanced through new laneways linking Pitt, Liverpool and Castlereagh Streets, drawing people into a new civic park with outdoor seating, landscaping and integrated public art.

With activated laneways supported by strong hospitality offerings, Castlereagh Place is tipped to become a vibrant new dining destination in the heart of Sydney’s CBD.

It marks the largest undertaking to date for the Billbergia and Metrics Credit Partners partnership. Together they are developing other underutilised Sydney sites into mixed-use precincts, including the $2.2 billion Concord Central and the $1.3 billion Chatswood Grand Residences.

Metrics Managing Partner and Group CEO Andrew Lockhart said Castlereagh Place is a landmark project that will redefine Sydney’s skyline.

"As the tallest residential high-rise development, the revitalised site will offer panoramic views across the CBD and surrounds. We are excited to partner with Billbergia to reinvigorate an underutilised site and create a sophisticated and contemporary mixed-use offering situated in the heart of Sydney.”

Total apartments within the towers have increased to 607 dwellings, with a focus on larger floorplans. Aligned to growing market demand, Castlereagh Place now comprises 299 three-plus-bedroom apartments, 198 two-bedroom units and 110 one-bedroom configurations.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134477 project_image_fid=374402]

Resident amenities will include an exclusive residents club containing a gym, rooftop pool, dining rooms, co-working spaces, library, golf simulator, games room, cinema room, and access to an exclusive concierge service. There will be around 500 basement car spaces below the towers.

The development will also include a state-of-the-art wellness centre, set to feature a bathhouse with magnesium pools, hot/cold plunge pools and premium amenities.

&nbsp;

According to fjcstudio, the towers will feature distinctive yet elegant architectural design reflecting Sydney’s geometry and urban character, with a network of through-site links and intimate public spaces activating the streetscape.

"Castlereagh Place is a city-making project of significant scale and ambition," said Richard Francis-Jones, Design Director at fjcstudio.

"It will create a rich urban complex of public open spaces, landscaped gardens, and vibrant laneways. Defining these new public spaces and the important streetscape of Castlereagh Street is a sequence of fine-grained, diverse retail and hotel architecture designed in collaboration with Aileen Sage, Polly Harbison Design and Trias.

“Rising above the tree-lined, human-scale streetscape are two slender residential towers that will transform the city skyline and look towards the Harbour, Hyde Park, and the Royal Botanic Garden.”

Demolition and early construction works have commenced onsite at Castlereagh Place.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134477]

Billbergia, Metrics, approved for $3.5 billion Sydney skyscrapers

First Home Buyers

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Singles earning an average income have been priced out of the property market from nearly all of Australia’s capital cities, a new report shows.
An analysis by financial comparison website RateCity.com.au shows that Hobart and Adelaide remain the last affordable capital cities for the nation's singles with a salary of $59,441 and $72,529 needed respectively to afford repayments on a 30-year mortgage (with a deposit of 20% at today's average variable rate of 4.74%). The industry rule that no more than 30 percent of a person’s income should go towards housing costs was applied to arrive at the figures.
The east coast remains the most unaffordable, with Sydney topping the list of tough markets for singles to crack. A person wanting to buy in the harbour city needs a six-figure salary of $137,556 to comfortably fund a mortgage on a median-priced house.
Someone looking to buy in Brisbane or Melbourne would require an $80,866 and $96,706 salary respectively to afford a median priced house, while in Canberra the salary needed would be $97,756.
According to Peter Arnold, data insights director at RateCity.com.au, the report raises further concerns that rising property prices across many cities in the country are forcing Australians out of the market. This could fundamentally impact the nation's demographics and service needs in the years ahead, he said.
“Our analysis reveals a reality that many young Australians are now living; the impossibility of affording a median-priced house on an average salary in most capital cities,” Arnold said.
“Without a partner or family member to share mortgage costs with, the numbers paint a grim picture for millennials, many of which may be squeezed out. Even as part of a couple, east coast property prices are out of reach for many Australians.”
“Many first home buyers, including young families, may find that they have to move away from careers in the CBD and the support of families to more affordable parts of Australia. This could have long-term effects on Australian society and bring with it challenges for the future in many areas, including transport and childcare.”
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prateek24-ezbwHMbNAk

Singles priced out of property market: RateCity research

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<div>AFG released its mortgage index for the September 2017, and it too showed a switch towards first homebuyers. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>First homebuyer activity has been buoyed by stamp duty concessions in New South Wales and Victoria. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The average mortgage size rose to an all-time high of $491,952, up from $479,101 a year earlier.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, regulatory intervention has slowed the pace of the increase. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-cDne2REAVJI/WeBUKQ-ez0I/AAAAAAAAmmI/56Y6ViVGspc7IB05l26LtM7zEAeqhF8awCEwYBhgL/s1600/AFG2.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-cDne2REAVJI/WeBUKQ-ez0I/AAAAAAAAmmI/56Y6ViVGspc7IB05l26LtM7zEAeqhF8awCEwYBhgL/s640/AFG2.jpg" width="640" height="384" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1380"></a></div>
 
<div>The increase in mortgage size was driven by Victoria, Queensland, and South Australia.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Elsewhere, macroprudential measures have evidently slowed the mortgage market.</div>
 
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-10_x__ClhRU/WeBULX4Q45I/AAAAAAAAmmQ/cIzsSH9pYfUExKK7Xc1yWqfkHP76ANnnACLcBGAs/s1600/AFG1.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-10_x__ClhRU/WeBULX4Q45I/AAAAAAAAmmQ/cIzsSH9pYfUExKK7Xc1yWqfkHP76ANnnACLcBGAs/s640/AFG1.jpg" width="640" height="392" data-original-height="826" data-original-width="1345"></a></div>
 
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>The figures for total lodgement volumes at the state level are necessarily seasonal, but simply underscore the sheer strength of the lending growth in Victoria. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Victoria appears to be the only state where cooling measures have not had a material impact. </div>
 
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PgbEKU0aL5c/WeBULOvd8AI/AAAAAAAAmmM/f9ZXSkoQD5geXz_-Sp6VXvi7UUlHDkC4wCLcBGAs/s1600/AFG3.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PgbEKU0aL5c/WeBULOvd8AI/AAAAAAAAmmM/f9ZXSkoQD5geXz_-Sp6VXvi7UUlHDkC4wCLcBGAs/s640/AFG3.jpg" width="640" height="386" data-original-height="819" data-original-width="1353"></a></div>
 
<div>There has been a massive shift away from investors, down to just a 29 per cent market share, from above 40 per cent at the peak.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The other notable trend was the shift away from the major market lenders.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Market share was down to 64.4 per cent for the main players, the lowest such result since the global financial crisis. </div>
 
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

The return of the first home buyer: Pete Wargent

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The number of new dwellings financed remained at a historically high level in April, but was slightly lower than in the preceding month.
Analysts are watching closely for signals of this construction cycle rolling over in a disorderly fashion, but up until April at least purchase activity had remained relatively robust. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/09/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/09/A1.jpg" alt="">
At the state level owner-occupier financing of new builds is tracking at historically high levels in all three of the most populous states. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/09/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/09/A2.jpg" alt="">
First homebuyers to recede
The number of first homebuyers has been sliding in recent years, following on from a huge spike during the financial crisis when a raft of incentives and grants were introduced.  
Some first time buyers have been opting to buy investment properties instead in recent times, particularly in expensive Sydney, in turn depressing the number of first homebuyers recorded. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/09/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/09/A3.jpg" alt="">
The annual number of first homebuyers has also fallen by 29 per cent in Western Australia since October 2013, with the Perth market seeing very subdued sentiment since that time. 
First homebuyer activity is likely to drop off between now and July 1, when new grants and stamp duty exemptions are set to be introduced in the states of New South Wales and Victoria. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/09/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/09/A4.jpg" alt="">
 
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/">blogger</a>.
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
 
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NSW first homebuyers to dwindle until July: Pete Wargent

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Over recent years the level of investor participation in the national housing market has hit historic high levels and at the same time, housing finance commitments to owner occupier first time buyers has shrunk. 
As an example, January 2017 housing finance data shows that based on the total value of housing finance commitments, a record-low 7.1% of commitments were to owner occupier first home buyers while 39.0% of the value of all commitments were to investors.
Click to enlarge
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/24/chart-1-2.jpg" alt="">
The above chart looks at the proportion of the total value of housing finance commitments going to owner occupier first home buyers and investors nationally.  As the level of lending to investors has increased over recent years it has done so at the expense of owner occupier first home buyers. 
Except for briefly in 1992, investors have consistently outweighed owner occupier first home buyers in terms of housing finance demand.  The only time first home buyer lending has got close to that of investors was in 2008 and 2009 during the financial crisis. 
At that time, investors were fearful and first home buyers were receiving substantial stimulus from the Federal Government which led to heightened housing demand to those that don’t already own property.
It is a similar story surrounding first home buyer activity being much lower than that of investors across the individual states and territories.  Furthermore, in 2008 and 2009 the combination of stimulus and investor caution resulted in a lift of first home buyer activity at the expense of investors. 
The data here has been paired between housing finance and lending finance data.  We have multiplied the average first home buyer loan size by their number of loans to determine the value of first home buyer loans and taken the investor loan data from lending finance.  Note that the following figures include refinances.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/24/chart-2-3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/24/chart-2-3.jpg" alt="">
In January 2017, an historic low 3.4% of all housing finance commitments in New South Wales were to owner occupier first home buyers compared to 46.9% of total lending to investors. 
The 46.9% of housing finance commitments to investors was their highest level since July 2015.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/24/chart-3-3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/24/chart-3-3.jpg" alt="">
Victorian investors accounted for 37.5% of the total value of housing finance commitments in January 2017 compared to 7.7% of the total value to owner occupier first home buyers.  The level of activity from first home buyers is currently at an historic low level while investor participation is sitting at levels not seen since July 2015.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/24/chart-4-3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/24/chart-4-3.jpg" alt="">
Owner occupier first home buyers are more active in Queensland than they are in New South Wales or Victoria however, they still only accounted for 10.8% of the value of housing commitments in January 2017 compared to investors accounting for 31.6%.  Housing affordability has not deteriorated in Queensland to the extent it has in New South Wales and Victoria however, first home buyers continue to be well and truly outnumbered by investors.
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/chart-5-2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8414" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/chart-5-2.jpg" alt="" width="1685" height="596">
In January 2017, owner occupier first home buyers in South Australia accounted for 6.9% of the value of housing finance commitments compared to investors accounting for 30.1%.
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/chart-6-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8415" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/chart-6-1.jpg" alt="" width="1687" height="599">
Owner occupier first home buyers in Western Australia accounted for 14.3% of the total value of housing finance commitments in January 2017 compared to investors that accounted for 27.3%.  Dwelling values are falling across most regions of the state and investor borrowing still far outweighs first home buyers. You would think that falling prices would scare investors away from purchasing and create an opportunity for first home buyers but that hasn’t really occurred in Western Australia over the past few years.
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/chart-7.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8416" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/chart-7.jpg" alt="" width="1688" height="603">
In January 2017, owner occupier first home buyers in Tasmania accounted for 10.3% of total housing finance commitments compared to investors that accounted for 27.6%.  The proportion of lending to investors in Tasmania is at its highest level since April 2015.
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/chart-8.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8417" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/chart-8.jpg" alt="" width="1706" height="603">
Northern Territory investors accounted for 38.8% of the value of all housing finance commitments in January 2017 compared to owner occupier first home buyers who accounted for 8.3%.  Despite the fact that dwelling values are falling across most of the Northern Territory, fist home buyer volumes remain low and investors remain quite active.  This is probably due to the fact that in Darwin in particular, the population tends to be more transient than in other parts of the country.
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/chart-9.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8418" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/chart-9.jpg" alt="" width="1687" height="602">
Across the Australian Capital Territory in January 2017, 9.1% of the total value of housing finance commitments was to owner occupier first home buyers compared to 35.5% to investors.
The national and individual state and territory data shows that historically the only way to substantially boost first home buyer participation has been at the expense of investors, as occurred in 2008/09.  At the time this didn’t occur through a policy specifically targeted at slowing investor demand it happened more so organically due to significant first home buyer stimulus and investor fears at the time.  Keep in mind that these policy choices also led to, in certain areas, a substantial increase in dwelling values.
Including in 2008/09, investors have consistently outweighed owner occupier first home buyers in terms of new mortgage borrowing. 
This shouldn’t really surprise anyone given that most investors already have a residential property asset and many of which use at least a portion of the equity in that asset to fund the investment.  First home buyers don’t have the existing foothold in the housing market and are always going to find it difficult to compete with borrowers that already have assets and equity. 
Unfortunately the ABS does not publish data on the number of loans to investors so we can’t see a true picture of loans written rather just the value lent.  Keep I mind that investors that already own homes generally have the ability to borrow more than first home buyers and in-turn may typically take out larger loans than first home buyers.
Based on the data is seems that the way to get more first home buyers entering into the market is to do it at the expense of investors.  If you can increase purchasing by first home buyers there will be, at least initially, less demand for rental accommodation. 
Longer-term though, the population grows and people age so deterring investment may have greater repercussions for the housing market. Keep in mind though that heightened housing market activity from first home buyers that don’t own housing assets and have no housing equity may actually create more instability in the housing market.
There is no easy fix to encourage higher levels of housing market participation from first home buyers but the data indicates a heightened level of activity from this market segment is most likely to occur via a reduction in demand from the investor segment.   While people that don’t already own homes may see this as a great solution we should be cautious as it may have larger long-term effects on housing supply and housing market stability. 
I don’t believe that the balance between first home buyers and investors is currently right and we should look at ways to cool some of the market’s current investment exuberance but we should also be cautious about encouraging excess demand from first home buyers who may find it more difficult to repay mortgages once interest rates start to increase.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Investors historically outweigh first home buyers but gap widens: Cameron Kusher

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We're not asking the right questions. That's why the property industry is getting so many misleading answers about important issues.
I think this explains, in part, why so many believe we have an affordability crisis and a housing shortage, when so much of the research data contradicts these widely-held beliefs.
Surveys of prospective first home buyers usually ask whether they think they can afford a home. The answer is meaningless, or at best misleading, unless there are further questions.
Those might include:
<ul>
<li>
Why do you think you can't afford to buy? 
</li>
<li>
Have you tried to buy? 
</li>
<li>Where have you looked? </li>
<li>Are you willing to compromise to get into the market?</li>
</ul>
The big problem, as I see it, is not an affordability problem but an expectation problem.
If you read between the lines in industry surveys and street interviews by media, it's clear many wannabe home buyers have a perceived problem because they've absorbed newspaper headlines and looked no further.
Why bother when you read daily that prices are through the roof (when in reality this is true only of Sydney)?
Others have a problem because they want their dream situation in their first purchase. People are quick to complain they can't afford a home but then we discover they want to live in a million dollar suburb.
Many commentators on real estate issues such as affordability apparently believe nothing ever changes. The assumption is that the current generation of young adults want what their parents wanted and should behave accordingly. That assumption is wrong.
<blockquote>
The big problem, as I see it, is not an affordability problem but an expectation problem.
</blockquote>
When the market share of first time buyers declines, it's assumed there's an affordability problem. No other option is considered. The possibility of demographic change is overlooked.
This is the nub of the issue because it's clear that today's 20-something's have different priorities to their parents. Married with kids and a mortgage before the age of 30 is not on the bucket list. Lifestyle takes priority and commitments can wait.
There's a similar issue with the idea of an undersupply of housing. Individuals and organisations stating under-supply as a fact (one that's accepted by many journalists without question) also fall into the trap of believing nothing changes.
Their analysis is flawed because they're using out-dated models about how many new dwellings are needed for a particular level of population growth. The assumption is that the average household size is X and if you divide population growth by X, that's how many houses should be built.
But a lot has changed. Young Australians are staying longer at home with their parents. Overseas migrants comprise a major chunk of population growth but it's coming from non-traditional sources with different household patterns.
Household sizes are rising again. Whereas in the past the typical household was a small family in a big house with surplus bedrooms, people are now buying homes that reflect their actual needs - e.g. opting for a two-bedroom apartment rather than a large, expensive and wasteful four-bedroom house.
The bottom line is that housing demand is created when someone buys a block of land and engages a builder. If that's not happening to the degree many expect because of what their formula tells them, then the formula is flawed.
The industry that complains about the alleged housing shortage is the industry whose job it is to build houses. If the vast undersupply they claim is real, there's a massive opportunity being missed by the industry doing the grizzling.
The industry will continue spinning its wheels until it starts asking the right questions. If there's a shortage, where are the queues at housing estates? And why is there no rental growth? And what are the real reasons young people have stopped buying in numbers?
You can contact Terry via <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email</a> or on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter</a>. 
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

The problem with first home buyers isn't affordability, it's expectations

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In the middle of articles about Tinder, student actors, Asperger's Syndrome and book reviews an article called 'Gen rent' jumped out at me. I was reading Issue Two of Catalyst, the RMIT student magazine and I began reading with enthusiasm.
It discusses Sarah (her name "changed for privacy reasons"), a Gen Y who has purchased a unit and lives with her parents while repaying the bank and renting the property out.
Later in the article AHURI director Wendy Stone discusses that there's no typical way of becoming a home owner, and points to it being time for "lateral solutions to housing issues" and adaptive behaviours, whereby siblings and friends purchase together. She notes that "... young people should definitely think creatively with each other" on how to get into property. An interesting discussion itself.
And then writer Alan Wedon gives the floor to "Sarah", where the following is written:
She also says Gen Y is being pushed out of home ownership by Baby Boomers, who have a greater capacity than in previous decades to invest in private home ownership - driving house prices up even further.
"It's a wicked problem really," she says. "Because as well as competing against investors, wealthy retirees and other first-home buyers for housing, members of Gen Y are also forced into competing with each other in the private rental sector.
Anger, it may appear to those new to the debate, is rampant among FHBs. Affordability is a numbers issue, and one discussed heavily on Property Observer. But attitude is another issue entirely, and the attitude from those who are interested in getting into the market is fascinating.
A comment in mX had me saving it a while back (pictured below), and it reflected the above sentiments almost to the word.
<img src="/images/2014/04/10/jd-tear-out-youngergen-april-10-two.png" alt="">
Source: mX - Vent your spleen 
I'm assuming, hoping, that the above is satire. But if we're at the point where someone can satirize in a non-property related publication about the anger and blame coming from first home buyers, then it's worth noting.
With the news that the Abbott government has <a href="/expert-insights/investing/first-home-saver-accounts-scrapped-what-now">scrapped the First Home Saver Accounts scheme</a> in its first federal budget, many account holders have understandably been left confused about what will happen to their money.
But should we be blaming the older generations and investors for ruthlessly pushing up prices? And, shoe on the other foot, should we be slamming first home buyers for being too picky and swanning off on European holidays one time too many?
Blaming other people is completely human and, for that reason, spills into property. In the same way that some like to violently blame foreign investors for facing off against the battlers, which I have not been able to see myself at a single auction, the younger generation likes to blame the older generation for pushing up house prices. And the older generations like to blame the younger generations for being far too selective.
As Terry Ryder has previously written for us, and discussed with myself, <a href="/expert-insights/investing/the-problem-with-first-home-buyers-isnt-affordability-its-expectations">the 'real' questions around first home buyers are not being asked</a>.
He says that the real questions we should be asking include the following:
<ul>
<li>Why do you think you can't afford to buy? 
</li>
<li>Have you tried to buy? 
</li>
<li>Where have you looked? 
</li>
<li>Are you willing to compromise to get into the market?</li>
</ul>
 
Compromise - the 'c' word that no one wants to hear. It relates not only to compromising on where and what you buy, but potentially also your lifestyle. Those who claim our parents never had to do these things are sorely mistaken. Speaking of the UK market, and then the Australian market, my parents tell stories of keeping the heating off in the coldest English winters and eating chilli-con-cabbage to afford their property as young 20-somethings. There's no shame in this, and I have huge respect for them for managing to raise us simultaneously. Whether or not you must compromise more now if you want to get into property is debatable, but the reality remains that if you're not born into a wealthy family (who are then willing to provide you funds) and if you don't immediately step into a high income earning role (if you ever get to this position) then compromise is going to be a requirement.
A conversation I had recently with someone looking to buy their first home so they could move out together, revealed that they were looking for an apartment within the inner ring of Melbourne, in a few choice desirable suburbs that they listed to me. They were not looking for something new, necessarily, but well-presented and sizable, preferably with a car space. Fair enough.
But then they were finding themselves quickly outbid by "older people" when they attended at auction. They expressed frustration with the process. I suggested that they look further out west and ignore Melbourne's city, suggesting that in parts of Melbourne's west (and we're talking past Rockbank) there are house and land packages for four-bedroom, two-bathroom houses on around 600 square metres of land for a sum amazingly less than that. Not to mention the established property market, where three-bedroom, one-bathroom houses for around the $200,000 to $300,000 bracket.
The reasons for saying "no" without even a Google, was not due to the slow capital growth prospects, which are of course an issue, but because the area is "too far out" and they "like" the area they're look at.
I had a painfully similar conversation with someone who was looking to buy in the Eastern suburbs, but was then told that Melbourne's west was too far from their friends and family, and from work. It's 35 to 45 minutes on one train from Southern Cross Station. I happen to live in one of these areas, and do so because it's cheaper - not because it's my dream area to live in.
This, to me, sounds as though it answers those clarification questions.
But it doesn't mean Generation Y is full of whingers, or picky - and, indeed, not all of them even want to own property - much has been said on the demographic shift we're seeing. Plenty of those who are prospective buyers are completely prepared to "wait it out" until they find the property that suits them. Others will eventually consider suburbs further out, or they'll buy something smaller that needs doing up. Or, they might not want to rent in the first place.
I discussed with Charles Tarbey, the chairman of Century 21, his first property. He told me it was a run-down property in a rough area of Sydney's west that still has a bit of a bad reputation today. It did grow in value, he sold it, and he used the profits to help open his first real estate agency.
Those who say buying a first home isn't hard are mistaken - a deposit even on a "cheapie" property is not an easy achievement. However, we do have an issue on both sides of the fence about blaming other generations for their own individual problems. It's far too easy to ignore the reality - that for those who are not wealthy, it has never been easy to purchase a first home and it will require a great deal of compromise one way or another.
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jduke-EHk3XBmHkn

Letter from the editor: FHBs, if you're not wealthy you will have to compromise

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Well, more real estate baloney.
This time it is about first home buyers – or the lack of them.
The ABS statistics released today show that first home buyer activity, measured as the proportion of all owner-resident lending, is the lowest in 23 years.
You would have heard all about it on the news tonight or will read about in tomorrow’s papers.
But something is wrong here.
<blockquote>
The fact is, we should all question a lot more of the real estate data that is being fed to us.
</blockquote>
And like many things these days in the real estate world, it’s the figures that are incorrect.  The ‘official’ statistics are measuring only part of the whole, yet very few question the results.
In short, there is a hell of a lot of first home buying taking place.
Most first home buyers buy an established property, and in most places across Australia, first home buyer grants do not apply to established property, only new stock.  And where it does apply, it amounts to very little, and to many it isn’t worth the paper work.
So, for mine, the ABS (along with others) is not correctly corralling first home buying activity.
It is interesting to watch the property intelligentsia trying to explain the reasons for the fall in first home buyer interest, as shown in the first two charts below.
"Generation X are choosing to rent rather than buy – they are buying investment housing instead of homes for themselves – housing is unaffordable so they cannot buy – we need more grant monies"; and it goes on.
<a href="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/FHB-1.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-7359" src="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/FHB-1.jpg" alt="FHB #1"></a>
<a href="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/FHB-2.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-7360" src="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/FHB-2.jpg" alt="FHB #2"></a>
I think the statistics are wrong.
Why wouldn’t first home buyers be buying?
<ul>
<li>Interest rates are extremely low</li>
<li>Banks are keen to lend</li>
<li>Mum and dad are practically paying for the deposit to get rid of their ‘boomerang’ adult children (at 30, one wonders if ‘children’ should really apply)</li>
<li>Yet according to the same talking heads who claim low first home buyer take-up – housing affordability is the best in over a decade</li>
<li>And to prove that point, there has been little change in the size of the average first home loan in recent years – see my third chart below</li>
</ul>
<a href="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/FHB-3.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-7361" src="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/FHB-3.jpg" alt="FHB #3"></a>
Late last year the ABS put out a great study – sadly it comes out only every five years or so – called Housing Occupancy and Costs (catalogue number 4130.0 for those who want to read the 92 page document).  This shows that first home buyer activity is much higher than the housing finance loan data suggests.
The HOC study shows that over the past three (3) years (and importantly, covering much of the recent first home buyer slump) just short of 1 million households (988,000) bought a property across Australia.
Of the 988,000 transactions over the last three years, 36% or 355,000 were first home buyers.  Eight out of ten first home buyers (289,000 or 81%) bought a second-hand or established home.  Just 19% bought a new property or something off-plan.
My conversations with real estate agents, including those selling new stock, indicate that first home buyer activity is much higher than the low levels officially reported.
I suspect that first home buying activity is close to the historic average – something around 35% of the total owner-resident market and around 20% of the total housing market, when including investors.  This is what I am seeing on the ground; and it explains the strong sales results across much of the country over the last 12 to 18 months.
First home buyers must be taking part; otherwise those upgrading or downsizing would not be able to sell as fast or as often as they currently are.  It is first home buyers that make up a significant part of the buying audience for their established homes.
It is good to see that others, too, are starting to question the results.
I note that the RBA, in their current chart pack (June quarter), have left off first home buyers in the graph outlining loan activity across the country.  See the last chart on page 6 of <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/chart-pack/index" target="_blank">this</a> document.  It has been included in previous RBA charts.
Michael Pascoe, too – thinking man that he is – has also questioned the results.  See <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/first-home-buyer-statistics-not-adding-up-20140609-39sam" target="_blank">here</a>.
You should too.
The fact is, we should all question a lot more of the real estate data that is being fed to us.
The media – for the most part – aren’t interested in checking the statistics before they regurgitate them.
Much of what you read these days about property is sadly bunkum.
Ohh…….. and don’t get me started on the need for or accuracy of a daily price index or suburban median house/unit prices!
Visit Michael's <a href="https://www.matusik.com.au/" target="_blank">website</a>, read <a href="https://www.matusikmissive.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">his blog</a>, follow him on <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ThinkMatusik?fref=ts" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Facebook</a> and <a href="https://www.twitter.com/michaelmatusik" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Twitter</a>, or connect via <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelmatusik" rel="nofollow">LinkedIn</a>.
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michaelmatusik-49YzLvdmNv

Have first home buyers really gone missing?

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There are many measures of affordability in the marketplace, sadly I believe that many of these measures fail to accurately depict the affordability or otherwise of housing in Australia.  
The main reason being that housing affordability is an extremely complex issue and many factors drive the affordability of housing. In my future posts I am going to investigate some of these factors and tell you what you should really be asking yourself about affordability when purchasing a home.
Can I start by stating that simplistic means of comparing property prices between countries I believe are ineffective. 
Due to different tax regimes, standards of housing and attitudes to property and wealth accumulation there may be perfectly good reasons why a household is prepared to spend more on housing in Australia for example than they are in the United States.  I think common measures such as the median multiple (ratio of household income to property prices) are not necessarily a good way to measure affordability or otherwise, there are a lot more factors at play.
Interest rates
Interest rates are obviously an important component in determining housing affordability.  When interest rates are lower, interest repayments on home loans are lower and as a result ‘affording’ the repayments on a mortgage should be easier.  Of course, as we are seeing at the moment, lower mortgage rates often encourage higher property values. 
So while it’s true that lower interest rates make housing relatively more affordable, if values are rising and sales increase then it can somewhat off-set the affordability benefit of lower mortgage rates.
Furthermore, the typical home loan in Australia is 25 years and the vast majority of home loans are on a variable rate.  As a result, as the Reserve Bank adjusts monetary policy there is virtually an instant effect on household budgets and balance sheets.  For example, at the moment the standard variable mortgage rate sits at 5.95% however, over the past 10 years the variable mortgage rate has averaged 7.27%, over the last 20 years it has averaged 7.45% and over the past 25 years (the typical home loan length) it has averaged 8.47%. Over the past 25 years, standard variable mortgage rates have been as high as 17.0% and as low as 5.75%.
The point is that interest rates can vary greatly over 25 years and over the life of the loan the current interest rate is not a great means of measuring the cost of a mortgage over its lifetime.
Wages / Income
If you are going to take out a mortgage on a home (as most purchasers do) you are going to need an income and you are going to need some savings.  In Australia there are a number of measures of wages/income and it is difficult to know exactly which one is best to use to measure housing affordability.
The National Accounts measure the ‘Real net national disposable income – chain volume’.  This measure does have a number of shortcomings in that it is not an individual measure and that it includes items that one can’t really spend such as superannuation.  Additionally this data is only available from a national standpoint. 
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes its wage price index each quarter however, it measures wages only and doesn’t measure income captured from other sources.  The Census is undertaken each five years and does report on the median weekly household income however, the shortcoming here is that it is only updated every five years. 
We also have the Household Income Survey from the ABS however it is only undertaken bi-annually and takes a fairly macro view of household incomes
Unfortunately all of these measures have significant shortcomings which need to be considered when looking at any housing affordability measure.
Article continues on next page. Please click below.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
Labour force / unemployment
Paying off a mortgage eats up a significant portion of a family’s wage.  Undoubtedly if home values weren’t so high and mortgages weren’t so large disposable incomes would be much greater.  Although labour force data or unemployment statistics need not necessarily be an input into any housing affordability measure they are a key consideration for someone looking to purchase. 
The threat of unemployment means that despite the fact housing may seem affordable it is less likely someone would purchase. Obviously if you are unemployed it is going to be difficult to purchase a home.
Another factor to consider is although measures of income show that over recent years wages and disposable income have increased, what they don’t take into account is how many more women are working nowadays.  Labour force data shows that in May 2014, 54.1% of the workforce was male and 45.9% was female, 30 years ago 62.3% was male and 37.6% was female.  Today, 35.5% of full-time workers are female compared to 28.9% 30 years ago. 
The point here is that although household incomes have increased, a big proportion of the increase is due to the structural change associated with a greater number of women in the workforce.  
The rising prevalence of dual income households means that whereas 20 to 30 years ago couples could afford mortgage repayments on a single wage, today they largely require dual incomes.
Home values / prices
Most measures of housing affordability look at median prices or median values. 
The important thing to remember here is that a median is just the middle value so there are just as many homes worth more and less than that figure.  In fact the median price looks only at the middle value of properties which have sold over a period.
This obviously has significant shortcomings because what is predominately selling could be at the affordable or expensive end of the market and this could bias the median one way or another.  Remember that typically only 5% to 7% of total housing stock transacts in a given year.
Another important consideration here is that a national median measure doesn’t really tell you very much at a localised level.  In Australia, 66% of residents live in a capital city with around 55% in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane or Perth. 
Quite simply many residents don’t have a choice but to live in a capital city so if you are trying to determine affordability in Melbourne, the cost of housing in Mildura is of no valuable comparison whatsoever.
Rental rates
If you don’t own a home or pay-off a mortgage you have to live elsewhere, for the most part non-homeowners rent.  The cost of renting is an important consideration when trying to determine housing affordability.  If rents are increasing but home values are flat or falling purchasing a home may start to look a more attractive prospect. 
Once again the challenge with a measure which compares rents to house price (or mortgage repayments) is that it is not a localised analysis.  For example for the cost of renting in Paddington in Sydney you may actually be able to pay off a mortgage in Guildford but to the renter is the opportunity cost of owning their own home and being further away from the city centre, harbour and the beaches worthwhile? 
Who knows but for anyone looking to purchase these are the sorts of questions they need to be asking themselves.
The other key consideration is that the ongoing costs associated with owning a home as opposed to renting are difficult to determine, but they are much more than renting.  As a renter, the ongoing costs generally include: the rent, the bond, electricity, gas (if applicable), cleaning (if you move rentals) and the cost of moving if/when you move. 
As an owner of a home the costs incurred include: the mortgage, electricity, gas, council rates, stamp duty when you purchase, ongoing maintenance of the property, strata fees (if you own a unit) and agent fees if/when you decide to move.  The ongoing costs associated with owning a home are much greater than the ongoing costs of renting.
Who does housing affordability affect most?
Housing affordability affects everyone.  The high cost of housing acts as a disincentive for people to move to more appropriate locations, discourages people from upsizing and downsizing and discourages movement intra or interstate for employment.  The group most affected by housing affordability however is those who don’t as yet own a home.
Again if we think about many of the measures of affordability used they look at typical or median prices values and compare to interest rates and typical wages.  The problem with this approach is that very few people are actually typical.  As a generalisation, most people that rent are younger, starting out their careers. 
There is a high likelihood that their wage is currently lower than the median (although there is a good chance it will increase as they are promoted or move jobs).  If their wage is below the typical wage then they should not be looking to buy the typical (or median house).
Of course there are plenty of renters that earn above average wages but choose not to purchase as well but when trying to tackle the affordability question I think many of the measures that we look at are far too simplistic, but hamstrung by the quality and granularity of income data. 
Housing affordability is an individual thing and none of the measures really tell the true story about how affordable or unaffordable housing in Australia is.  When determining whether you can afford to buy a home I think the most important things to consider are:
<ol>
<li>What are current mortgage rates and at what higher level would I not be able to repay my mortgage?</li>
<li>How secure is my job and what would happen if I was to lose my job for an extended period?</li>
<li>Over the next few years what is the realistic expectations for my wage, will it rise and by how much?</li>
<li>What impact would it have if I found a partner or lost a partner on my ability to repay the mortgage?</li>
<li>If I plan to have children, children cost a lot what impact would that have on my ability to repay the mortgage?</li>
<li>Compared to my current rent and associated costs, how much more is paying off a mortgage and the other day-to day costs of home ownership really going to be and can I afford this?</li>
<li>What am I willing to sacrifice in order to buy a home; lifestyle, location, overseas travel etc?  What is the opportunity cost of buying a home?</li>
</ol>
I am sure there are many more questions to ask when looking to purchase but I think as a start these questions are essential.  I say that the measures of affordability which are readily available should be taken with a grain of sale. 
It’s more important to ask yourself some tough questions about whether or not you can really afford to be a home owner.  If you have any doubt you really need to consider whether it is worth the risk or not.
For what it’s worth, I think that housing affordability is a significant issue for young Australians, particularly those within our capital city markets.  he major problem is that most Australian’s choose to build wealth through property and 23 years of unabated economic growth has on exacerbated this. 
The challenge now is how can you deliver affordable housing for younger Australians without bringing down the cost of existing housing which politically and economically would be detrimental to the overall health of the Australian economy.
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Forget affordability measures and ask yourself some tough questions

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GUEST OBSERVATION
It’s Saturday morning in West Brunswick, a suburb in Melbourne’s inner north. From my bedroom window I can see a crowd gathering across the road for a house inspection.
The crowd swells to 60 or so people – couples, couples with school-aged children, couples with small babies and then there are small groups of young people, clearly looking for share housing. Surveying the scene I feel like I can predict who my new neighbours might be.
Or, at least I am fairly sure who they won’t be. This semi-renovated three bedroom house has been up for rent three times in the past three years. At $560 per week the rental price is steep, yet each house inspection has attracted crowds like this one. And each time my new neighbours have been couples with a small baby. Young single people did not get a look in.
This is hardly surprising. The scene played outside my bedroom window reflects broader trends. Landlords <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/blog/finding-the-right-tenant/" target="_blank">want safe bets</a> – people who can pay the rent, withstand rent increases, won’t trash the property and may even improve it.
And in a tight housing market with national demand outstripping supply – especially at the low end of the <a href="https://www.treasury.gov.au/~/media/Treasury/Publications%20and%20Media/Publications/2012/NHSC/Downloads/PDF/housing_supply_affordability_report.ashx" target="_blank">affordability market</a> – and rental vacancy rates <a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/housing_information/review/evrev053" target="_blank">between 1% and 4%</a> in capital cities across Australia, most landlords can afford to be choosy.
Young people find it hard to compete, especially in some segments of the rental market. Recent evidence indicates that young people are more likely to be in precarious housing than other age cohorts. They are more likely to be in unaffordable housing, private rental or overcrowded households, and to have recently experienced a forced move. And compared with couples with children they are almost seven times more likely to dwell in housing that is in poor condition.
<a href="https://www.vichealth.vic.gov.au/~/media/ResourceCentre/PublicationsandResources/Health%20Inequalities/Precarious%20housing/Precarious_Housing_Full_FINAL_2August.ashx" target="_blank">Preliminary evidence</a> is also emerging that like other age groups, young people’s experience of precarious housing also impacts negatively on their health and well-being, especially their mental health.
It’s little wonder, then, that young people are leaving home later than previous generations, typically around 23 or 24, often returning to the family home multiple times following job loss, tenancy breakdown or other life crises, before they settle into <a href="https://aifs.org.au/institute/pubs/diversity/DiversityAndChange.pdf" target="_blank">fully independent adulthood</a>.
This social trend has real consequences: for family finances, parent-child relationships and the way young people themselves imagine their place in the world, their rights and responsibilities, as well as their sense of capability, agency and autonomy.
This trend is only likely to increase if the <a href="https://theconversation.com/young-people-are-now-on-the-edge-of-our-reconfigured-welfare-state-26697" target="_blank">proposed changes</a> to the Youth Allowance and Newstart proceed as outlined in the recent federal budget. In a policy first, 30 is defined as the upper age of youth. And young people who finish their education and are looking for jobs – or those who get a job and lose it – will not be entitled to Youth Allowance (up to to the age of 25) or Newstart Allowance (25 years and older) for six months.
On $207 for <a href="https://www.humanservices.gov.au/customer/enablers/centrelink/youth-allowance/payment-rates" target="_blank">Youth Allowance</a> (living away from home) per week or $255 <a href="https://www.humanservices.gov.au/customer/enablers/centrelink/newstart-allowance/payment-rates-for-newstart-allowance" target="_blank">Newstart Allowance</a>, combined with maximum payment of $63 in <a href="https://www.humanservices.gov.au/customer/services/centrelink/rent-assistance" target="_blank">Commonwealth Rent Assistance</a>, young people currently find it extremely difficult if not impossible to access and maintain affordable housing. This will quite simply be impossible if benefits are, as proposed, suspended for six months.
While difficult for those young people who enjoy the support of their families, it is almost impossible for those who lack such support. These are the 22,000 or more young people estimated to be homeless on census night – a figure recognised by the Australian Bureau of Statistics as an underestimation of the <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=60129545638" target="_blank">actual population</a>.
This lack of support extends to nearly 3,000 young people nationally who are exiting out-of-home care services. A range of evidence suggests that anywhere between 40-60% of these young people will be homeless within a year of leaving care. Currently, it is estimated that 43,000 young people are receiving the youth allowance and living away from home.
These young people, who typically aspire to nothing less than their home-based peers (a house, job, sense of belonging and money to make a life), are <a href="https://www.vichealth.vic.gov.au/~/media/ResourceCentre/PublicationsandResources/Health%20Inequalities/Precarious%20housing/Precarious_Housing_Full_FINAL_2August.ashx" target="_blank">multiply disadvantaged</a> in the housing market. Without the safety net provided by the family they risk free-falling into long-term poverty and disadvantage. Most have low levels of education, with over half in some studies recording their highest level of education as Year 11 or below. Of those who find their way to services, nearly 90% are unemployed or not in the labour force.
We know that these young people are <a href="https://www.bsl.org.au/Social-exclusion-monitor" target="_blank">three times more likely</a> to experience social exclusion. Also compared to full-time employees, unemployed people are around 15 times more likely to be in <a href="https://www.vichealth.vic.gov.au/~/media/ResourceCentre/PublicationsandResources/Health%20Inequalities/Precarious%20housing/Precarious_Housing_Full_FINAL_2August.ashx" target="_blank">unaffordable housing</a>.
Like other homeless populations, these young people have <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=60129545051">few other housing options</a>. Most do not qualify for public housing, and when they do many languish on long waiting lists for a housing tenure that is widely recognised by policymakers and young people themselves as unsuitable.
Once homeless, some – depending on what area are living in, be it metropolitan, rural or remote – may find temporary refuge for six to 12 weeks in crisis accommodation. Some of these – if they are lucky – may go on to government-funded transitional accommodation for up to 12 months. A tiny number, and arguably the luckiest of all, end up in youth foyers: housing that is combined with tailored education and employment support.
The rest, however, continue to live rough, couchsurf, or try to make a go of it in rooming houses with shared bathroom and kitchen facilities. Increasingly, some find themselves in unregistered rooming houses: ordinary houses in the suburbs in which unscrupulous landlords sublet bedrooms at a premium price. Here, disadvantage is concentrated and a culture of violence and conflict is common. These are hardly the places to build sustainable, independent lives.
With a generation at risk of being locked out of the housing market and a significant minority of these falling through the gaps of the rental market, the need for a national youth housing policy has never been more pressing.
Oh, I almost forgot. We have new neighbours across the road: a couple with a small baby.
Shelley Mallett is professorial fellow in social policy, School of Social and Political Sciences at <a href="https://www.unimelb.edu.au/" target="_blank" style="line-height: 1.3em;">University of Melbourne</a>.
Shelley Mallett has received ARC and AHURI funding in the past. She is general manager, Research &amp; Policy Centre at the Brotherhood of St Laurence.
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
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Crowded housing market gives youth little chance for independence

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GUEST OBSERVATION
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) announcement to hold the cash rate for April at 2.25 percentage points could ease the increase in house and unit values over the next month. A market slowdown would allow greater purchasing power for first time home buyers in unaffordable housing markets.
The number of first time homebuyers taking out home loans has declined as a result of the recent housing boom, which saw more investors enter the market. This is supported by ABS data, which shows that home loans taken out by first time homebuyers have steadily decreased from 18.8% in 2012 to 14.9% in 2015.
Furthermore, according to ABS data, the size of the average home loan increased 1.07% between December 2014 and January 2015, to $346,600.
The decision to hold rates is partly attributable to Australia’s two-tiered housing market. According to <a href="https://Onthehouse.com.au" target="_blank">Onthehouse.com.au</a> data, at February 2015, Sydney experienced quarterly growth of 3.55% for houses, and 2.83% in units. These are down from the January quarter of 4.10% for houses and 3.04% in units, although they still reflect strong investor demand.
Despite Sydney’s strong performance, other markets, including Melbourne and Brisbane, saw contraction in property values at the end of the February quarter.
On the supply side of the housing market, February housing approvals were almost at a five-year high. In NSW, approvals for February 2014 totalled 4,692 dwellings, approximately 2,600 of which were units. Dwelling commencements in NSW, as last recorded in September 2014, were at a high of 14,063, which is a 43% increase in commencements from the previous quarter, and is 49% higher than the five-year average of commencements.
Dwelling commencements also increased in QLD and VIC, but at a lower rate. Nationwide, commencements hit a record high of 54,436, despite migration currently sitting below the five-year average. A further cut in the cash rate could have seen funds misallocated in a market where migrant and first homebuyer demand is in decline.
Overall, despite the benefits to first time homebuyers, the rate hold decision does come within a tricky economic climate for the RBA, where economic indicators have remained virtually unchanged for the previous period.
Some notable indicators include:
<ul>
<li>The unemployment rate decreased from 6.4% in January to 6.3% in February. However, this was coupled with a decrease in the participation rate from 64.7% to 64.6%, suggesting that the unemployment rate fell as people came out of the labour force, rather than finding work.</li>
<li>Annual wage price growth was at a five year low in the quarter ending December 2014, at just 2.5%. The December quarter also saw low inflation, which was last recorded at 1.7%.</li>
<li>Iron ore is currently at a 10 year low, at $US46.7 a tonne. Iron ore is expected to fall further as competitors amplify supply to win greater market share.</li>
<li>Oil prices seem to be stabilising following a significant decline since July 2014. Oil rose marginally in the latest trading session to $US53 per barrel. While the price is stabilising at approximately half the five-year average, Australians may no longer enjoy further discounts in the oil price. </li>
</ul>
Though the above factors call for a further cut in the cash rate, the hold is more about timing than tightening monetary policy. This month will reveal new quarterly inflation figures and employment data, which would allow more insight into the impact of February rate cuts. 
Eliza Owen is a market analyst at <a href="https://Onthehouse.com.au" target="_blank">Onthehouse.com.au</a>.
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