<p>Off the plan buyers at Altona's newest apartment development Voyage, are soon to take their keys, with&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/spacious-property-development-group-pty-ltd">Spacious Property Development Group</a>&nbsp;approaching completion of the contemporary, coastal building.</p>

<p>Farey &amp; Co can now take prospective buyers through a fully-furnished display apartment on appointment as construction approaches its final stages.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=112195 project_image_fid=3286]</p>

<p>Situated just 13 kilometres from Melbourne’s CBD, Voyage Altona beachside apartment development offers a rare opportunity to live moments from the sand, pier, and thriving village life of Pier Street.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/voyage-altona-102-106-pier-street-altona-vic-3018">Voyage</a> is the only new apartment offering currently on the market in <a>Altona</a>. Comprising one, two, and three-bedroom residences, it has been thoughtfully designed to appeal to a broad spectrum of buyers, from first home purchasers to downsizers and lifestyle-focused owner-occupiers.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Prices start from just over $500,000 for one-bedroom apartments, with three-bedroom configurations topping out just over the $1 million mark.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=112195 project_image_fid=2145]</p>

<p>Voyage's architecture, by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cheah-saw-architecture">Cheah Saw Architecture</a>, is defined by an asymmetrical façade and a refined palette that echoes the surrounding coastal tones.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Inside, a minimalist design language prevails, with full-height glazing inviting expansive views over Port Phillip Bay and hybrid timber flooring grounding the open-plan layouts.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Kitchens are appointed with premium Miele appliances and stone finishes, while the bathrooms feature porcelain tiles and walk-in glass showers.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=112195 project_image_fid=3287]</p>

<p>Voyage's location on Pier Street places residents at the heart of the suburb’s major activity centre. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/altona-vic-3018">Altona</a> Station, Altona Beach, and a diverse mix of cafes and shops are all within walking distance.&nbsp;</p>

<p>With the final release now selling, Spacious is offering buyers the chance to secure their future home with just a five per cent deposit, a move that lowers the barrier to entry and positions Voyage as one of the most accessible premium new builds on Melbourne’s bayside fringe.</p>

<p>Spacious Property Development Group collaborated with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/valeo-construction">Valeo Construction</a> to bring this vision to life. The development has advanced significantly, with interior fit-outs and communal landscaping well underway.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Completion is targeted for Q3 2025, with some buyers expected to move in by September.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112195]</p>


Completion is targeted for Q3 2025, with some buyers expected to move in by September

Joel Robinson

Buyers to move into Voyage Altona this Spring

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/beulah">Beulah</a>&nbsp;has unveiled its latest release of exclusive homes in its sustainable Brunswick townhouse development, Brunswick Established.</p>

<p>The collection, known as ‘The Courtyard House’, has been created in collaboration with Six Degrees Architects to meet the evolving needs of modern families.&nbsp;</p>

<p>With a central courtyard at its heart, the design reimagines the possibilities of multi-generational living, blending flexibility, sustainability and personalisation within a heritage setting. Distinct from a traditional garden, the courtyard delivers natural light, fresh air and a generous sense of space, without the upkeep of a backyard.</p>

<p>Comprised of 23 two-storey townhouses, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/brunswick-established-23-hodgson-st-brunswick-vic-3056">Brunswick Established</a> offers multiple typologies of townhomes to suit different living requirements, allowing residents to grow in place - majority include ground-floor bedrooms for accessibility, while others, known as the ‘The Courtyard House’, provide a unique, flexible detached space separated by a courtyard.</p>

<p>Responsible for both the architecture and interior design, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/six-degrees-architects">Six Degrees</a>’ holistic approach enabled the team to ensure an intrinsic link between the design outcomes; a seamless, harmonious flow from the outside to within.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=136451 project_image_fid=275571]</p>

<p>“The modern home should flow from inside to outside - the courtyard provides a space which joins the different parts of the home together as the central outside space of the home,” explains Six Degrees Director, Peter Malatt.</p>

<p>“The courtyard is a model used since ancient times, transforming the home from an object within a space to an object enclosing space. It acts as both the visual and social heart of the home, a space to gather, reflect, or simply pause, offering a moment of calm within a busy urban context."</p>

<p>“Courtyards also offer a deeply cultural and emotional resonance, with their timeless presence across human history. They connect us to the past, while shaping how we live today</p>

<p>Malatt says the courtyard also operates as a micro-climate, which can retain heat in winter and be a shaded haven in summer.</p>

<p>"The ability to take warmed or cooled air into the home from the courtyard space is a great way to improve internal health and minimise energy use through heating and cooling. In a compact urban environment like Brunswick, courtyards are also a clever solution - bringing light, greenery and nature into denser living formats while maintaining a strong sense of privacy and connection."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=136451 project_image_fid=270371]</p>

<p>This concept resonated strongly with early downsizers who recently purchased one of the Courtyard homes at Brunswick Established for themselves and their two adult sons, aged 21 and 24.</p>

<p>“We’re excited to have a home that gives us flexibility as our lives evolve, whether it’s our sons living with us as they finish university, or us being able to lock up and travel. Having separate spaces connected by the courtyard is perfect for our family dynamic, especially as we value our independence but also want to stay close,” they shared.</p>

<p>The couple, who also share their home with two dogs and two cats, highlighted the benefits of multi-generational living in a courtyard home.</p>

<p>“Our sons help care for the pets, we enjoy cooking and spending time together, and the courtyard means we have light, greenery, and privacy all in one. We love that Brunswick Established has thought about sustainability and customisation in such a detailed way, it’s rare to find that in a project.”</p>

<p>Beulah’s approach to design customisation at Brunswick Established, allowing residents to adapt layouts to their lifestyle, has been a major drawcard for buyers seeking homes that evolve alongside them. The detached living space offers flexibility to suit changing needs, whether as a studio, guest retreat, or home office, while maintaining a close link to the main residence, allowing family members to come together or enjoy privacy when needed.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=136451 project_image_fid=275570]</p>

<p>Malatt added that the&nbsp;homes have been designed for residents’ well-being, allowing couples and families to ‘grow’ in their own homes while ensuring they meet their needs for generations to come.</p>

<p>"Purchasers usually experience multiple lifestyle stages within one home, and we’re looking forward to seeing these unique homes come to life."</p>

<p>As part of this forward-thinking approach, Beulah will also host an exclusive event, The Property Market Decanted, on Wednesday 27 August at The Commons Café &amp; Cocktail Bar, Melbourne. The evening will feature insights from leading property and finance experts on Melbourne’s market outlook and long-term wealth creation strategies, particularly for multi-generational households.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=136451]</p>


Beulah release sustainable courtyard townhouse collection at Brunswick Established

<p>Property developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gamuda-land">Gamuda Land</a> has topped out its Fareham apartment development on St Kilda Road.</p>

<p data-end="400" data-start="283">Markscon has completed the 16-storey structure and remains on track to deliver the entire building by early 2026.</p>

<p data-end="400" data-start="283">“Topping out marks more than just structural progress — it represents our long-term vision to create sustainable, well-integrated neighbourhoods that add real value to the communities around them,” said Jess Teng, Chief Operating Officer, Gamuda Land.</p>

<p data-end="935" data-start="663"><a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/fareham-st-kilda-95-st-kilda-road-st-kilda-vic-3182">Fareham</a>, one of the few new developments currently on the market in St Kilda, responds directly to its location along the iconic St Kilda Road. The project is targeting an average 8-star NatHERS rating, well above standard requirements for new apartment buildings.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=137950 project_image_fid=281439]</p>

<p>The development incorporates a range of sustainable features that support energy efficiency, occupant comfort, and long-term operational performance. Fareham is enabled to operate on zero carbon energy, including an onsite 20kW array and access to 100% renewable electricity. As an all-electric building, Fareham has been designed without gas connections, further supporting low-emission living.</p>

<p>Its design includes open-air internal corridors — among the tallest of their kind in Melbourne — and enables cross-flow ventilation in 80% of apartments. High levels of daylight access to living and bedroom areas enhance thermal comfort and reduce reliance on artificial lighting. Water-sensitive design has also been integrated, with rainwater collected and reused for landscape irrigation and toilet flushing.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=137950 project_image_fid=281447]</p>

<p>With just five apartments per floor, Fareham offers a low-density living environment that prioritises privacy and space. Its architectural form and orientation take cues from the surrounding coastal character, maximising natural light, breezes, and views — evoking the openness and comfort of beachside living.</p>

<p>Located within close reach of St Kilda Beach, Fitzroy Street’s dining scene, and Albert Park Lake, the development is also well-connected to public transport and cultural destinations across Melbourne.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=137950 project_image_fid=281446]</p>

<p>Gamuda Land is progressing on a similar timeline with its other Melbourne apartment project, The Canopy in Fishermans Bend, which also recently topped out and is scheduled for completion in early 2026. That project is being delivered by Crema Constructions.</p>

<p>“At both Fishermans Bend and St Kilda Road, we’ve embedded environmental performance and community benefit from the earliest stages," Teng added.</p>

<p>"These projects are not only designed for lower operational impact but also to elevate liveability for residents. We believe that sustainable urban homes must be thoughtful, resilient, and connected — and these developments reflect that ethos.”</p>

<p>Gamuda currently has over 60 infrastructure and engineering projects underway across Australia. It recently expanded its local presence through the acquisition of DT Infrastructure and Tunnelling Solutions (TunSol) — the infrastructure projects division of ASX-listed Downer Group.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4269]</p>


Construction milestone marks progress at Fishermans Bend and St Kilda Road developments

Gamuda Land tops out Fareham on St Kilda Rd

<p>Hampton's High Street offers the best of both worlds; halfway between Hampton Beach and Hampton Station, with a myriad of cafes and shops on its doorstep.</p>

<p>It was this unbeatable combination of convenience and connectivity that attracted Nash Project Management to secure a prime site on the corner of Hampton and Holyrood Streets several years ago.</p>

<p>The result is <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/holyrood-hampton-451-461-hampton-street-hampton-vic-3188">Holyrood &amp; Hampton</a>, a newly completed residential development comprising 59 premium apartments set above a full-line Coles supermarket, enhancing the day-to-day ease for residents.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=4629 project_image_fid=1530]</p>

<p>Those who have already moved into Holyrood &amp; Hampton have highlighted several standout features of their new home, with the location topping the list.</p>

<p>Hampton Station on the Sandringham line (Zone 2), is just down Hampton Street, offering regular services to Flinders Street Station. Multiple bus routes connect to Southland, St Kilda, and Berwick, while scenic cycling paths along the bay provide a relaxing alternative for commuters and weekend riders.</p>

<p>A short walk west leads to Picnic Point and Hampton Beach, beloved for its clean sand and family- and dog-friendly spaces. Ferdinando Gardens, near the pier, is perfect for picnics, while coastal walking trails offer peaceful views and breezes.</p>

<p>The surrounding green spaces—Castlefield Reserve, Triangle Gardens, and Hampton High Reserve—offer playgrounds, sports fields, and a sense of calm. Golfers have several options nearby, including Brighton Public Golf Course just a short drive away.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=4629 project_image_fid=1528]</p>

<p>Hampton Street remains the heart of the community, with more than 50 fashion boutiques, cafés, and eateries. A Woolworths anchors the retail strip, while independent shops help maintain its village charm.</p>

<p>Health and community services are easily accessible, with local GPs, dental clinics, and the nearby Sandringham Community Hospital, supported by larger hospitals in Brighton and Cheltenham.</p>

<p>Families are well catered to, with top private and public schools within a 1–2 km radius. These include Haileybury College, St Leonards College, Firbank Grammar, Brighton Grammar, Hampton Primary, and Brighton Secondary College.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=4629 project_image_fid=1532]</p>

<p>The apartments have been designed for longevity, with spacious, home-like layouts. Many include butler’s pantries, oversized kitchen islands, and quality finishes.</p>

<p>Additional features such as a rooftop terrace, EV charging, secure storage, and direct supermarket access support a highly functional and low-maintenance lifestyle.</p>

<p>Designed by Telha Clarke, Holyrood &amp; Hampton reflects how people want to live today—connected, walkable, and move-in ready.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4629]</p>


Those who have already moved into Holyrood & Hampton have highlighted several standout features of their new home, with the location topping the list.

Holyrood & Hampton presents a walkable, Bayside lifestyle in the heart of Hampton

<p>Developer Keylin is putting its mark on the booming Spring Hill property market, one of the strongest markets in Queensland which is being driven by the announcement that the heart of the Brisbane 2032 Summer Olympics will be developed in the small northern Brisbane suburb.</p>

<p>Well-regarded in the development industry, with several completed and planned projects across Brisbane and the Gold Coast, Keylin has just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/oria-spring-hill-447-gregory-terrace-spring-hill-qld-4000">Oria Spring Hill</a>, a collection of 132 residences across 15 levels in an elevated position on Gregory Terrace, directly opposite Victoria Park, the future site of the Games.</p>

<p data-end="608" data-start="578">[smartcode_project:default project_id=109146 project_image_fid=1014]</p>

<h3 data-end="628" data-start="610">The Apartments</h3>

<p data-end="800" data-start="630">The two, three, and four-bedroom apartments feature an Art Deco-inspired design, with curved stone kitchen islands, brass textures, and bold interior colours and patterns. Durable mineral stone benchtops come as standard, while the skyhomes feature natural stone.</p>

<p data-end="800" data-start="630">[smartcode_project:default project_id=109146 project_image_fid=1078]</p>

<p data-end="1032" data-start="905">There are two colour schemes available for buyers to choose from: the bold Victoria scheme, or the more neutral Gregory scheme.</p>

<p data-end="1286" data-start="1034">Each apartment offers open-plan living and dining areas, as well as a large, covered balcony to embrace Brisbane's subtropical lifestyle. The living spaces are designed with full-height glazing to maximize views over Victoria Park and the Brisbane CBD.</p>

<h3 data-end="1305" data-start="1288">The Amenities</h3>

<p data-end="1411" data-start="1307">Leaning into its Olympic location, Keylin is introducing unique amenities that cater to changing lifestyle requirements.</p>

<p data-end="2046" data-start="1758">[smartcode_project:default project_id=109146 project_image_fid=1018]</p>

<p>Much like the shift developers made during the pandemic to include study nooks and multi-purpose rooms in response to the work-from-home trend, Keylin has responded to the growing popularity of pickleball. Oria will feature a proposed private pickleball court as part of its facilities, one of the first courts in a new residential development across the country.</p>

<p>Pickleball participation has surged in Australia from 2023 to 2024. In 2023, Pickleball Australia Association (PAA) had over 7,300 members, with an estimated 25,000 casual players nationwide. By 2024, PAA membership had grown to 15,166, with nearly 93,000 participants across the country.</p>

<p data-end="2046" data-start="1758">[smartcode_project:default project_id=109146 project_image_fid=1031]</p>

<p data-end="2335" data-start="2048">In addition to the proposed pickleball court, Oria will offer a range of proposed amenities within its rooftop pool and terrace level, including a cinema, music and games room, private dining spaces, and a gym with a steam room, sauna, and yoga space, as well as an off-leash dog area.</p>

<h3 data-end="2353" data-start="2337">The Location</h3>

<p data-end="2501" data-start="2355">Keylin understood the prime value of this location long before the announcement that Victoria Park would be the heart of the 2032 Summer Olympics.</p>

<p data-end="2628" data-start="2503">The address at 447 Gregory Terrace provides residents with easy access to major transport links, universities, and hospitals.</p>

<p data-end="2628" data-start="2503">Of course, the future growth of the area will be anchored by Victoria Park, the 64-hectare green space just across the road. The park will be transformed with the construction of a 63,000-seat stadium, which, after the Olympics, will become home to the Brisbane Lions, Brisbane Heat, and Queensland Bulls.</p>

<p data-end="2628" data-start="2503">[smartcode_project:default project_id=109146 project_image_fid=1023]</p>

<p data-end="2628" data-start="2503">Just 200 meters from Oria, the new National Aquatic Centre will replace the former Centenary Pool.</p>

<p data-end="3166" data-start="3039">Additionally, the nearby RNA Showgrounds, just 700 meters away, will undergo an upgrade to include a 20,000-seat outdoor arena.</p>

<p data-end="3266" data-start="3168">Keylin has already commenced construction on Oria, which is being delivered by builder CoStruct.</p>

<p data-end="3266" data-start="3168">[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=109146]</p>


Keylin Group launches Oria in Victoria Park, Spring Hill Olympic precinct

European Union

<html><body><div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">GUEST OBSERVER</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">The past week has been dominated by first the anticipation that Britain would vote to Remain within the EU that saw “risk on” in financial markets and shares rally followed by an abrupt move to “risk off” as the referendum saw the Leave vote win by 52 percent to 48 percent.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">The vote to Leave poses risks: to the UK economy which will also face a period of political instability with PM Cameron to step down by October and pro-EU Scotland pushing for another independence referendum; to Eurozone stability over fears that some Eurozone countries may seek to follow the UK; and hence to global growth.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">It also threatens to add momentum to a move away from economic rationalist policies in favour of populism and a reversal of globalisation which would be a negative for long term global growth.</div>
<div class="column">
<br>Reflecting the worries about the impact on the UK and more significantly Europe financial markets reacted sharply in “risk off” fashion on Friday with the British pound (-8.1 percent), British shares (-3.1 percent), the Euro (-2.4 percent) and Eurozone shares (-8.6 percent) down sharply and this seeing global share markets down generally along with the Australian dollar. Safe haven assets such as bonds, the $US, Yen and gold have all benefitted.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">This could have further to go in the short term until some of the dust settles. A concern is that a rising $US in response to safe haven demand will weigh on the Renminbi (sparking new fears of capital outflows from China), commodity prices and emerging countries taking us back to the global growth fears we saw earlier this year.</div>
<div class="column">
<br>However, it’s worth putting all of this in perspective. First the moves in some markets seen on Friday were exaggerated because the moves that occurred during the first four days of the last week when markets thought Remain would win had to be reversed. So, for example, while Eurozone shares fell 8.6 percent on Friday they only fell 2.6 percent over the last week.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Over the week as a whole US shares lost 1.6 percent, Japanese shares lost 4.2 percent, Chinese shares fell 1.1 percent and Australian shares fell 1 percent. Bad but not monumental. Believe it or not the British share market actually rose 2 percent over the last week. While the British pound fell 8.1 percent on Friday it only fell 4.7 percent over the week as a whole and the $A actually rose 1 percent last week. It was similar with bonds and oil – big moves on Friday but only modest moves over the week</div>
<div class="column">
<br>Second, Britain has only started down a process to exit and has a long way to go yet. It will first need a new PM then later this year formally notify its intent to exit which will then kick off a negotiation process that will then take up to two years to complete. This will determine the ultimate impact on the UK economy – either it will retain free trade access to the EU but have to continue to allow the free movement of people, agree to EU rules and regulations and contribute to its budget or forgo free trade altogether. At this stage its hard to see which way this will go. But the point is that for some time the UK will still be in the EU. </div>
<div class="column">
<br>Third, while the Brexit vote will likely trigger a guessing game as to which Eurozone country will try and follow its lead and ask for a similar referendum it’s doubtful that Eurozone countries will actually seek to leave because the hurdle to leave the Eurozone is higher than Britain leaving the EU as it will mean adopting a new currency, paying higher interest rates, etc. Just think of Greece despite its woes over the last few years consistently deciding to stay in the Eurozone. Countries to watch though are Italy following the recent success in municipal elections of the Eurosceptic Five Star Movement and maybe Spain given the success of Podemos.</div>
<div class="column">
<br>Fourth, the Brexit vote is unlikely to be akin to a Lehman moment because conditions are radically different. Lehman came after a long period of global strength and a credit boom where liabilities and exposures were opaque. That is not the case now and Brexit has been talked about endlessly so is not the surprise Lehman was.</div>
<div class="column">
<br>Finally, central banks have quickly adopted a “whatever is necessary” stance to provide liquidity to markets and support their economies, notably the Bank of England which is already providing £250bn. The ECB is monitoring the situation but its liquidity measures (eg TLTRO) are probably more than enough at present. The more important point is that global monetary policy will remain easier for longer. The Fed certainly will be slowed further in raising rates because it won’t want to put more upwards pressure on the $US which is being boosted by safe haven demand. A G7 Statement decrying excessive currency volatility has arguably given Japan close to a green light to intervene to stop the Yen rising much further. Expect more BoJ easing soon which should help Japanese shares.</div>
<div class="column">
<br>I am not so confident about British assets given the long period of uncertainty the UK will now face both economically and politically. However, the global bout of “risk off” underway is likely to provide a buying opportunity as Europe is likely to hang together, global monetary policy is likely to be even easier than previously thought and the global economy is likely to continue to see modest growth.</div>
<div class="column">
<br>Given that only 2.7 percent of Australian exports go to the UK and that the Leave victory is unlikely to plunge Europe into an immediate recession the main impact on Australia will be on financial markets. This could affect short term confidence and may add to the case for the RBA to cut interest rates again particularly if banks increase their mortgage rates out of cycle due to higher funding costs flowing from an increase in lender caution.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">That said we expect the RBA to cut rates again anyway and a falling $A will continue to provide a shock absorber for the Australian economy. Overall, Brexit barely changes the risk of recession in Australia which remains low.</div>
<div class="column">
<br>The key for investors is to either look through the short term noise caused by the Brexit decision or look for investment opportunities that it throws up as investment markets become oversold.</div>
<div class="column">
<br>Just finally on Europe, the last week saw the German constitutional court approve the validity of the ECB's Outright Monetary Transaction (OMT) program, which partly underpins Draghi's 2012 commitment to do "whatever it takes" to preserve the Euro. This is a big relief because its rejection would have put a cloud over the ECB’s ability to respond to any turmoil in peripheral bond markets that may flow from the Brexit vote.</div>
<div class="column">
<br>Now on to other things!</div>
<div class="column">
<br>In Australia, the big event in the week ahead will be the Federal election (Saturday). Each side of politics is offering very different visions for the size of government:</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Labor is focussed on spending more on health and education and in the process allowing the size of the public sector to increase, funded by tax increases on higher income earners (retention of the budget deficit levy and cutbacks in access to negative gearing, the capital gains tax discount and superannuation). The ALP would also undertake a royal commission into banking and intervention in the economy is likely to be higher than under a Coalition government.<br><br>By contrast the Coalition is focussed more on containing spending, and encouraging economic growth via company tax cuts and mild reforms. Despite the Coalition’s tilt to “fairness” with its super reforms it’s committed to keeping taxes down. It does plan to reinstate the Australian Building &amp; Construction Commission but even with the double dissolution election it’s unclear whether it will get enough votes to do this.</div>
<div class="column">
<br>At this stage the polls suggest the Australian election is too close to call. But it’s a big ask to see the ALP become the first opposition in 85 years to regain government after just one term as it will need to win 19 seats. As such betting agencies have the Coalition as favourite. However, the big issue may be what happens in the Senate with there being a good chance that the Greens and minority “parties” control the balance of power again acting as a huge constraint on the government, which would mean another de facto minority government, ie more of the same. Which in turn mean poor prospects for getting government spending under control over the next three years and for implementing serious productivity enhancing economic reforms.</div>
<div class="column">
<br>Over the 7 weeks since the election was called the Australian share market has fallen 3.1 percent. The next table shows that 8 out of 12 elections since 1983 saw shares up 3 months later with an average gain of 4.8 percent. This may partly reflect relief at getting the election out of the way.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column"><a href="/images/2016/06/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-06-27%20at%209.42.20%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="column"><img src="/images/2016/06/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-06-27%20at%209.42.20%20AM.png" alt=""></div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column"><strong>Major global economic events and implications</strong></div>
<div class="column">
<br>Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s congressional testimony didn’t really add much. The key is that the Fed is “proceeding cautiously” to give it time to assess whether the US economy and inflation is on track with its expectations and given global uncertainties. Uncertainty and market turmoil flowing from the Brexit outcome is likely to further delay the Fed in terms of raising rates again.</div>
<div class="column">
<br>US economic data was mostly good. While durable goods orders were weak, the June manufacturing PMI rose, home prices rose, home sales were strong, jobless claims fell sharply and home prices continue to rise. And the US’s top 33 banks passed a Fed stress test indicating that they have enough capital to withstand a severe economic shock (involving unemployment doubling to 10 percent.) In other words they are in good shape to withstand any shock flowing from Brexit.</div>
<div class="column">
<br>The Eurozone composite business conditions PMI fell slightly in June with a decline in services (on Brexit fears?) offsetting a gain in manufacturing. It remains at a level consistent with moderate growth though.</div>
<div class="column">
<br>Japan’s manufacturing conditions PMI rose just 0.1pt to a still weak 47.8 in June indicating that growth in June quarter is still struggling.</div>
<div class="column">
<br>A couple of Chinese business conditions surveys moved in opposite directions for June with one up solidly and a small business PMI weakening. So bit of a wash there.</div>
<div class="column">
<br><strong>Australian economic events and implications</strong>
</div>
<div class="column">
<br>In Australia, the minutes from the last RBA Board meeting added little that was new with the RBA neutral and on the sidelines for now. However, our view remains that lower inflation and a too high $A on ongoing Fed delays will still see more easing ahead with the next cut likely in August. Meanwhile Australian economic data over the last week was uneventful. March quarter house prices fell slightly according to the ABS but more timely private sector data suggests a renewed pick up since then particularly in Sydney.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">While population growth has slowed from its 2% peak late last decade to 1.4 percent last year it’s still contributing to solid underlying demand for housing. NSW and Victoria are the top states for population growth, and flowing partly from this house price growth. Which in turn partly explains the good state of their budgets. Finally, skilled vacancies continue to see reasonable growth telling us that the labour market remains solid.</div>
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<br><strong>What to watch over the next week?</strong>
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<br>The focus in the week ahead will no doubt see continued reaction to the Brexit referendum, particularly given an EU leaders’ summit on Tuesday and Wednesday.<br>In the US, expect to see a further gain in home prices and a slight rise in consumer confidence (Tuesday), solid growth in personal spending and a slight rise in the core private consumption deflator to 1.7 percent for the year to May, but a slight fall in pending home sales (all Wednesday) and a slight rise in the ISM manufacturing conditions index (Friday) to around 51.5 (Friday).</div>
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<br>In the Eurozone expect bank lending (Monday) and economic confidence readings for June (Wednesday) to remain around levels consistent with continued moderate economic growth. Core inflation data for June (Thursday and unemployment data (both Friday) will also be released. The outcome of the Spanish election on Sunday may also add to short term uncertainties regarding the Eurozone.</div>
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<br>In Japan, expect a slight fall in industrial production (Thursday), a deterioration in the June quarter Tankan survey reflecting the recent earthquake and continued softness in household spending but the jobs market (all Friday) is likely to remain solid helped by the falling workforce. Core inflation (also Friday) is expected to fall to 0.6 percent yoy in May.<br>In Australia, apart from Saturday’s election, expect the trend in new home sales (Wednesday) to remain modestly down, ABS job vacancies for the 3 months to May to rise consistent with monthly vacancy data and continued moderate credit growth (Thursday) and a slight softening in home price momentum in June (Friday) according to CoreLogic. The AIG’s manufacturing conditions PMI (Friday) will also be released.</div>
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<br><strong>Outlook for markets</strong>
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<br>The aftermath of the Brexit vote could see more volatility in shares in the short term. However, beyond near term uncertainties, we still see shares trending higher this year helped by relatively attractive valuations, ultra easy global monetary conditions and continuing moderate global economic growth.</div>
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<br>Lower and lower bond yields point to a soft medium term return potential from them, but it’s hard to get too bearish in a world of fragile growth, spare capacity, low inflation and ongoing shocks like Brexit. That said, the recent bond rally has taken bond yields to ridiculously low levels leaving them at risk of a sharp snapback at some point.</div>
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<div class="column">Commercial property and infrastructure are likely to continue benefitting from the ongoing search for yield by investors.</div>
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<br>Capital city dwelling price gains are expected to slow to around 3 percent over the year ahead, as the heat comes out of Sydney and Melbourne thanks to toughening lending standards and pockets of oversupply. Prices are likely to continue to fall in Perth and Darwin, but price growth may be picking up in Brisbane.</div>
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<br>Cash and bank deposits offer poor returns.</div>
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<br>While the Brexit outcome knocked the $A lower, it’s still higher than it should be and the longer term downtrend looks likely to continue as the interest rate differential in favour of Australia narrows as the RBA continues cutting and the Fed eventually resumes hiking, commodity prices remain in a secular downswing and the $A sees its usual undershoot of fair value. The $A is still likely to fall to around $US0.60 in the years ahead.</div>
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<br>Eurozone shares lost 8.6 percent on Friday night and the US S&amp;P 500 lost 3.6 percent in response to the Brexit vote. However, since the Australian share market largely responded to the Brexit outcome on Friday, ASX 200 futures actually rose 3 points or 0.1 percent indicating a basically flat start to trade for the Australian share market on Monday.</div>
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<div class="column"><em><span><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank">SHANE OLIVER</a></span> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home" target="_blank">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.</em></div>
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