Developers and apartment buyers have a narrowing window of opportunity before Brisbane's Olympic infrastructure pipeline begins competing directly with residential construction, pushing up costs, tightening labour supply and making new projects increasingly difficult to deliver.

While Brisbane's apartment market continues to benefit from strong population growth and limited housing supply, industry research suggests the years leading up to 2027 could prove to be the most important period for developers looking to secure builders and buyers hoping to purchase before the next wave of price increases.

A new Colliers report, Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games: Creating Solutions, highlights the scale of the challenge. While thousands of new homes are planned across South East Queensland, the Brisbane Olympic Athletes Village alone will deliver more than 10,500 beds during the Games before being converted into around 1,750 to 2,000 apartments. Equivalent to almost two years of typical inner-city apartment supply, the project will also absorb a significant share of the construction workforce and building materials.

The broader construction pipeline paints an even clearer picture.

Construction Skills Queensland's Horizon 2032 report forecasts Queensland's annual construction pipeline will average $69 billion over the coming years before peaking at $75 billion in 2027-28. Demand for construction workers is expected to increase by 17 per cent to almost 150,000 people, with the industry facing an annual shortfall of around 19,000 workers that could blow out to as many as 35,000 during the peak construction period.

The Olympic venues, athletes village and supporting infrastructure will account for billions of dollars worth of work across South East Queensland through to 2032, creating intense competition for labour at a time when Australia's residential construction sector is already under pressure.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150489 project_image_fid=373834]

Colliers Queensland Residential Director Andrew Scriven said the convergence of these projects is creating a clear window of opportunity for both developers and buyers.

"From 2027 onwards, the market will shift dramatically," Scriven said.

"Labour will increasingly be locked into government-led infrastructure and Olympic projects, which means private residential developments will face higher costs and tighter margins. The developers who move now are the ones most likely to get projects off the ground."

Scriven said the same dynamic would also affect buyers, with fewer apartment projects expected to launch once construction capacity tightens.

"If you're looking to change your lifestyle over the next five years, now is your window of opportunity to buy."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150713 project_image_fid=373827]

Developers are already positioning themselves ahead of that window.

Following the success of Monarch at Toowong, Consolidated Properties is preparing to launch two new Brisbane apartment projects in the second half of 2026. They include <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/gloriette-30-bedivere-street-yeerongpilly-qld-4105">Gloriette</a> at Yeerongpilly Green, a 25-storey tower within one of Brisbane's key Olympic precincts, and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/castile-47-skyring-terrace-newstead-qld-4006">Castile</a>, a recently approved 25-storey riverfront development at 47 Skyring Terrace in Newstead.

Hutchinson Builders will deliver both projects, with early works already underway at Yeerongpilly and Newstead expected to commence later this year.

The timing comes as Brisbane's fundamentals continue to strengthen, with strong interstate migration, population growth and vacancy rates remaining below 1.5 per cent.

Colliers Queensland researcher Pragya Sharma said Greater Brisbane is forecast to require around 40,000 new apartments between 2021 and 2031.

"There's a real mismatch emerging between when housing is needed and when it will be feasible to build," Sharma said.

"As a result, the period leading up to 2027 presents a key window of opportunity for developers to secure approvals, funding and construction capacity, while buyers will have greater choice before supply constraints intensify."

Colliers research outlines a critical pre-2027 window to start residential projects before labour squeeze: now is the time to buy

Joel Robinson

Developers, buyers on watch in South East Queensland ahead of construction crunch: Colliers

It's taken less than nine months for developer Sherpa Property Group to sell out all 51 apartments in its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-oasis-palm-beach-7-9-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Oasis</a> development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/palm-beach-qld-4221">Palm Beach</a>, over a year before its anticipated completion.

&nbsp;

Located at 7-9 Sixth Avenue, the $67 million development has resonated strongly with both local owner-occupiers and downsizers seeking high-quality apartments within walking distance of the beach, dining precincts and everyday amenities.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357458]

Christie Leet, Founder of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Group</a>, said the sell-out reflected both the strength of the Palm Beach market and the success of Sherpa's community-first approach to development.

"The sell-out of Oasis is a fantastic outcome and reinforces the strong demand we're seeing for thoughtfully designed apartments in lifestyle locations," Leet said.

"From the outset, our vision was to create a development that genuinely enhanced the Palm Beach community while providing residents with exceptional homes and wellness-focused amenities.

"We've been incredibly encouraged by the level of local support throughout the campaign, 72.5 per cent of buyers are locals, with a significant proportion of purchasers choosing Oasis as their future home rather than an investment."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357463]

Construction is now progressing following development approval, with trusted builder LPS Group delivering the project and completion anticipated in Q3 2027.

Oasis forms part of Sherpa Group's successful Flourish collection, which has become recognised for its focus on wellness, community and elevated coastal living.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357469]

Residents will have private access to a rooftop amenity space featuring a pool, gym, sauna, steam room, hot and cold plunge pools, spa and barbecue facilities.

"The success of Oasis demonstrates that buyers continue to prioritise quality, location and lifestyle," Leet said.

"We are proud to have delivered a project that has resonated so strongly with the market and look forward to bringing Oasis to life for our future residents."

Sherpa recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-palm-beach-1150-1160-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a>, its third instalment of the Flourish brand in Palm Beach following Flourish Oasis and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Amargo</a>.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151449]

Sherpa sells out Flourish Oasis in booming Palm Beach

Urban Property Group's <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/la-vera-macquarie-park-94-talavera-road-macquarie-park-nsw-2113">La Vera</a> is leading the next phase of Macquarie Park's residential evolution, with the new apartment development set to become the first of several new apartment projects in the precinct to complete.

The 169-apartment building has now topped out ahead of its scheduled completion in the third quarter of 2026, as new residential investment continues to reshape one of Sydney's largest employment hubs into a true mixed-use precinct.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=368645]

Cox Architecture has designed La Vera to capture the best of its unique positioning on Talavera Road, orienting the building towards Lane Cove National Park.&nbsp;The building features a sculpted northern façade with flowing curves inspired by the surrounding landscape, while its city-facing elevation adopts a more structured architectural expression to maximise skyline views.

"The vision for the project was to conceive a building that adopted an organic and curvilinear form to the northern portion that faces the Lane Cove National Park," <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">Cox Architecture</a> Director Felipe Miranda said.

"The residents that reside in the northern portion of the building benefit by having beautifully crafted curved balconies that speak to the natural context and heighten the relationship of their internal living spaces to the external balconies."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=358802]

La Vera offers a diverse mix of one, two, three, and four-bedroom configurations, with prices currently starting from $740,000. Buyers so far have been a mix of Sydney-based investors,&nbsp;metro commuters, owner-occupiers and downsizers from surrounding North Shore suburbs.

Both investors and owner-occupiers have been drawn to La Vera's proximity to Macquarie University, Macquarie University Hospital, Macquarie Centre and the Sydney Metro, infrastructure that supports both strong rental demand and a convenient lifestyle for residents.

The apartments feature full-height glazing, timber flooring throughout living areas, stone kitchen benchtops, SMEG appliances, floor-to-ceiling bathroom tiling and ducted air conditioning.

Residents will have access to a rooftop recreation level featuring a swimming pool, sauna, barbecue facilities and landscaped relaxation areas, complemented by additional communal space at ground level. Many apartments enjoy uninterrupted views across Lane Cove National Park, reinforcing the project's connection to its natural setting.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=364551]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a>, a family-owned developer and builder with nearly four decades of experience, holds a 4.5-star iCIRT rating and was Australia's first developer to introduce 10-Year Latent Defects Insurance (LDI). La Vera is the first apartment development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/macquarie-park-nsw-2113">Macquarie Park</a> approved to offer the additional insurance protection, alongside a five-year warranty on SMEG appliances.

Urban Property Group CEO Patrick Elias said the additional protection reflects changing buyer expectations in the off the plan market.

"Consumers are a lot more weary and a lot more concerned in buying off the plan than they ever have been. Having LDI is a tool to portray the confidence that we have in our product, and a confidence we want buyers to share," Elias said.

Following completion of the building later this year, buyers will move into their apartments well before Christmas.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134951]

La Vera closes in on completion as Macquarie Park continues residential transformation

Brisbane developer Red &amp; Co's decision to include dual key apartments in its debut Gold Coast apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/como-varsity-lakes-22-lake-street-varsity-lakes-qld-4227">COMO Varsity Lakes</a>, is proving to be one of the project's biggest drawcards, with buyers quickly snapping up the flexible residences.

More than half of the project's 36 dual key apartments have already sold, helping drive COMO beyond the 50 per cent sold mark within the first month of launch.

The strong response highlights growing demand for apartment designs that can adapt to changing lifestyles, with buyers increasingly looking for homes that accommodate multi-generational living, provide rental income opportunities or simply offer greater flexibility over time.

Located on the shores of Lake Orr, COMO will deliver 156 apartments across 16 levels, with the dual-key residences forming a limited release within the broader development.

Each combines a primary two-bedroom apartment with a fully self-contained studio on a single title, connected by a shared foyer and lockable internal door. The design allows owners to house ageing parents, adult children or guests while maintaining privacy, or lease the secondary residence to generate additional income.

Just 17 of the original 36 dual key apartments remain available.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=367096]

The innovative configuration combines two fully self-contained residences on a single title, typically comprising a primary two-bedroom apartment alongside a separate studio residence, connected via a shared foyer and lockable internal door.&nbsp;

The model is proving particularly attractive to owner occupiers navigating changing family dynamics and the realities of the current housing crisis.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363511]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/npa">NPA</a>&nbsp;CEO Andrew Erwin said dual key living was resonating strongly with modern buyers because it delivered both financial flexibility and practical lifestyle benefits.&nbsp;

“The housing crisis and rising cost of living are fundamentally changing how Australians think about home ownership,” Erwin said.&nbsp;

“Dual key apartments provide a genuine solution for families who want to stay connected while maintaining independence. Parents can help adult children save for a future home, ageing parents can remain nearby without moving into aged care, and owners still retain privacy and flexibility.

“Importantly, buyers are also recognising the financial advantages. It creates the opportunity to generate additional income from part of the home without the holding costs associated with owning a separate investment property.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363509]

Unlike traditional dual occupancy arrangements, the residences operate under a single title, meaning owners only incur one set of body corporate fees, council rates and holding costs.&nbsp;

The secondary residence can also evolve over time - functioning as guest accommodation, a home office, creative studio or private retreat before later becoming an income-producing asset.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/red-co">Red &amp; Co</a>&nbsp;Director and Co-Founder David Laverty said the strong early sales reflected growing buyer urgency and changing priorities within the market.&nbsp;

“Securing more than half of COMO’s residences within such a short timeframe is an outstanding result and a clear endorsement of both the design and location,” Laverty said.&nbsp;

“Buyers are responding to the combination of location, connectivity and amenity, but ultimately it’s value relative to other East Coast markets that is driving enquiry.”&nbsp;

“We’re also seeing strong interest from owner occupiers looking for homes that can adapt with them over time. Flexibility has become one of the most important considerations for buyers in today’s market.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363515]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bda-architecture">BDA Architecture</a>, COMO features a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom residences with 2.7-metre ceilings and larger-format floorplans aimed at owner occupiers, downsizers and lifestyle-focused buyers.&nbsp;

The development will feature an extensive rooftop recreation and wellness offering including a 25-metre lap pool, sundeck, barbecue and dining areas, gym, sauna, plunge baths, landscaped gardens, wellness spaces and rooftop pickleball and paddleball courts.

The remaining dual key apartments range from 137 sqm to 167 sqm and include generous three-bedroom layouts with separate self-contained studio accommodation and dual parking.&nbsp;

Erwin said the dual key concept represented a broader shift in how Australians would live in the future.

“People want homes that can evolve with their lives,” he said.&nbsp;

“A dual key apartment can suit a family today, support an ageing parent tomorrow, and potentially generate income later on. That adaptability is becoming incredibly valuable in the current environment.”

Prices currently range from $2,115,750 to $2,583,000.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135546]

Inter-generational living drives demand for COMO’s dual key apartments as housing pressures reshape buyer priorities 

Builder-developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ceerose">Ceerose</a> has doubled down on its Leichhardt ambitions, lodging its second State Significant Development Application (SSDA) in the suburb in the last six months.

Their newest proposal seeks to transform a former industrial precinct into a new residential community centred around the adaptive reuse of one of the site's heritage warehouse buildings.

The new project, on a 6,930 sqm block at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/40-76-william-street-leichhardt-nsw-2040">40–76 William Street</a>, will bring more than 200 apartments to a suburb that has seen little to no new supply in recent years. It follows Ceerose's late 2025 SSDA for a mixed-use apartment project on nearby Parramatta Road, signalling the developer's growing investment in Sydney's Inner West.

Ceerose Founder Edward Doueihi told Apartments.com.au the developer’s long-standing presence in Leichhardt and the Inner West had given it a strong understanding of how the area has evolved and where its future opportunities lie.

“Ceerose has had a long-standing presence in Leichhardt and the Inner West, giving us a unique understanding of the area’s evolution and future potential,” Doueihi said.

“Having delivered projects throughout the region, we have witnessed the suburb’s transformation first-hand and understand the opportunities for its continued growth.”

Doueihi said that understanding also informed the planning process, with a comprehensive Stakeholder Engagement Outcomes Report prepared before the application was lodged.

The report identified the key issues and concerns raised by neighbouring residents and other stakeholders, allowing those matters to be considered and incorporated into the design where appropriate.

He said the delivery of additional housing would also play an important role in supporting the revitalisation of Norton Street and the Italian Forum.

“By increasing the local residential population, the development is expected to strengthen demand for local businesses, encourage further investment, and help restore the vibrancy that made the precinct a thriving destination in the early 2000s.”

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7258c54c-8167-479e-8361-2d5fca9915b4" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010B%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%202.jpg?VersionId=S9DQfxu_jpcB5LrAEYFUbyMzg5odW6i5" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a>, the redevelopment would involve the demolition of four existing industrial buildings while retaining and adaptively reusing the site's most significant warehouse. The retained structure would anchor a new residential precinct comprising five interconnected buildings arranged around a large central landscaped courtyard, with heights stepping from five storeys along the surrounding residential streets to 11 storeys at the William Street corner.

According to the Architecture Design Report by Woods Bagot, the proposal "seeks to create a residential village centred around a generous green heart while celebrating the site's industrial heritage through the adaptive reuse of the existing warehouse building."

The development would comprise 203 apartments, with 188 proposed as build-to-sell residences, alongside 15 affordable housing apartments.

Rather than treating the retained warehouse as a standalone heritage object, Woods Bagot has sought to weave the site's industrial history throughout the masterplan. The proposal retains the north and west facades of the landmark corner warehouse, while new buildings reinterpret the site's brick-and-steel industrial language through their material palette and architectural expression.

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9e8c64c2-881b-49e1-8c90-6b6acaaa45b6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010C%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%203.jpg?VersionId=Qm8_8H_Xrg_sc4Mdjc59vlAcKF_5wRTb" />

The design is organised around what Woods Bagot describes as a "green heart", a landscaped communal open space that reinstates the leafy character removed when the site became an industrial storage facility. A new pedestrian laneway running through the site would improve permeability between William, North and Francis streets, linking residents through landscaped public spaces while activating the ground plane.

Residents would have access to communal gardens and shared recreation areas distributed throughout the development. Sustainability has also been prioritised, with the project targeting an average 7.9-star NatHERS rating. Proposed initiatives include rooftop solar generation, rainwater harvesting, passive solar design, naturally ventilated lobbies, extensive cross-ventilation and the reuse of existing building fabric to reduce embodied carbon.

The adaptive reuse strategy became a defining feature of the application after heritage investigations found only one of the site's industrial buildings could feasibly be retained. The Heritage Impact Statement concludes that preserving the key warehouse façades while referencing the site's industrial character throughout the new development provides an appropriate balance between renewal and conservation.

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="efffafdb-594f-4e2b-a067-921fd51c05e1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010D%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%204.jpg?VersionId=DPmE4.k16YRt0i27hEZVtJAffarpvUfx" />

"Retention and adaptation of the site buildings has been explored but found not to be feasible except for the tallest building, whose street facades will be retained," the heritage report states.

"The proposed building will interpret the brick and steel character of the subject site, including reuse of some components and construction of a large 'sawtooth' structure in the proposed open space."

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3bfef2b5-83f5-40cd-9cab-767092f34266" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010E%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%205.jpg?VersionId=7asb3i_ql4ybbuJOUb5UHBEIy0Q9t.DF" />

The William Street site is located around 300 metres from Leichhardt North Light Rail station and a short walk to Norton Street's retail, dining and hospitality precinct. The surrounding area has increasingly become a focus for urban renewal given its proximity to public transport and the Parramatta Road corridor.

Doueihi founded Ceerose in 1998 and has grown the business to become one of Sydney's more active apartment developers in recent years, with completed projects including The Alex Collective in Alexandria, Abbie's Lane in Annandale, and the award-winning Munro House in Elizabeth Bay. They are currently delivering Belgravia, 17 luxury apartments in Potts Point.

First look: Ceerose doubles down in Leichhardt with adaptive reuse of former warehouse site

Data

<html><body>
Experian Marketing Services Australia, provider of customer-centric information services, will add geospatial elements to its range of customer marketing services by leveraging the real estate-related information assets of global information provider CoreLogic.
The partnership will give Experian access to property attributes, historical sales and other value data, and property trends across Australia.
“Our core philosophy is to provide data to help companies connect to communities,” said Vic Hodge, principal ponsultant, Experian Marketing Services.
“Smart companies are using data to improve their ability to connect with the consumers of today, and to be at the forefront of the planning and interaction with the consumers of the future.”
By integrating detailed information about Australian real-estate industry trends into its data offerings, Experian will be able to better tailor its products and services with a geographic element that reflects demographic and societal changes over time.
</body></html>

jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Experian leverages rich property data from CoreLogic to expand customer-centric information services

<html><body>
The increasing use of Big Data could drastically change facilities management in commercial real estate and the operations of the future workplace, according to JLL.
This will include the emergence of intelligent buildings with the ability to better manage and prevent issues, increase sustainability for owners, and technologies that allow staff to engage with the buildings and influence their surroundings in new ways.
Big Data is the term given to extensive sets of data that are of a size, diversity and complexity that require new techniques and advanced analytics to manage and extract valuable insights from them.
“Ninety percent of all the data we have in the world today was created only in the last two years. Today we create about six exabytes of data every day, whereas all the data produced on the planet up until 2003 only totalled about five exabytes,” said JLL’s director of corporate solutions Rajiv Nagrath.
He said all types of organisations are increasingly relying on analytical tools to generate data-driven insights that enable better decisions and improve operations.
In buildings, a major contributor of Big Data are the Internet of Things (IOT) devices.
IOT is the term given to the vast network of automated pieces of hardware that are individually connected to the internet, enabling them to collect and exchange data all the time. 
"By 2020 there will be an estimated 26 billion internet-connected devices in addition to about seven billion laptops, tablets and smartphones," he said.
“Hundreds of thousands of these IOT devices will be located in commercial buildings, constantly creating huge volumes of data points to make sense of managing the buildings efficiently and effectively.
Various sensors, controllers and other IOT enabled devices will revolutionise how buildings operate and make the truly intelligent building a reality.
“Most modern buildings today are already provisioned with such advanced devices and technologies, having about 5,000 to 10,000 points connected to the Building Management System - already a high number of devices that act together, and a large volume of data that needs to be collected, analysed and acted upon.
"If we have the right analytic tools, Big Data offers us the chance to find the patterns and identify the correlations and causes of malfunction,” he said.
Big Data and IOT will also impact the way facilities management (FM) and the modern workplace could operate.
“Workplace models are shifting towards increasing choice and flexibility, which not only means changes for the staff, but also for the building owners and managers. One key shift the IOT will have on FM will be the integral role Wi-Fi will play in controlling the office environment, and the intimate level of control each individual could have over their immediate space and surroundings.
“Where once we had a simple passive infrared sensor (PIR) detector switching off the lights in a meeting room, we will have situations where all of the lights will have a movement detector and each light fitting will be addressable.
"Individuals will be able to set their own lighting and space temperature preferences all via an app on their smart phone.
"This will add another layer of complexity for facilities management previously not witnessed in the commercial property sector.
Nagrath, who recently presented on the relationship between Big Data and Facilities Management at a conference in Perth, said another effect of Big Data and IOT on FM would be the shift towards a central command centre model for managing a portfolio of buildings, instead of standalone building management systems.
While most modern buildings already incorporate a standalone building management system that controls some of the systems such as heating, ventilation and air conditioning and emergency generators, it was no longer the best solution, he said.
“What we are seeing more often is that due to changes in resourcing and skill levels, it is no longer efficient for someone to be constantly monitoring the performance of the building at an individual site level.
"It is much more efficient to channel all of the information from those systems back to a central 24/7 command centre to monitor, analyse performance and detect failures and anomalies.
"Command centres increase efficiencies because they can monitor many buildings, staff can conduct in-depth analysis, and it can leverage powerful software to run algorithms over a huge amount of data.
"Our experience is that in most buildings you can improve sustainability and save 10-15% in energy costs once you connect it to a command centre too.”
JLL has been implementing such models for a couple of years now.
Nagrath said that while the concept of a command centre was not new, it had taken a while to gain traction in the FM sector.
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Big Data to shake up building management systems: JLL

<html><body>
The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) released data earlier on residential property exposures by Australian Authorised Deposit-taking Institutions (ADIs). The data was published up to the end of December 2014. The information provides additional insight into the nature of mortgage lending by Australian banks, building societies and credit unions.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4309" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Chart-11.jpg" alt="Chart 1" width="500" height="178">
According to APRA’s data, at the end of 2014, there were $1.278 trillion in residential term loans with $839.8 billion in owner occupied loans (65.7%) and $438.9 billion in investor loans (34.3%). Over the 12 months to December 2014, the value of residential term loans to owner occupiers increased by 7.4% compared to a 12.2% rise in loans to investors. Note that in December, APRA raised concerns about annual growth in investor loan books above 10%. Based on this data, many ADIs would be growing that segment of their book above that benchmark.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4310" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Chart-21.jpg" alt="Chart 2" width="500" height="180">
Focusing on the characteristics of these loans shows a growing appetite for loans with an offset facility and interest-only loans. Meanwhile, the prominence of low documentation loans and other non-standard loans is reducing. 
Based on the value of lending, loans with an offset facility increased by 18.4% year-on-year to December 2014, interest-only loans were 15.1% higher, reverse mortgages had increased 1.9% while low documentation loans and other non-standard loans had reduced by -18.6% and -20.2% respectively. 
At the end of 2014, a record high 37.5% of outstanding loans had an offset facility and a record high 36.9% were interest-only. Just 0.2% of loans were reverse mortgages, a record low 2.5% were low documentation and just 0.1% were other non-standard loans.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4312" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Chart-31.jpg" alt="Chart 3" width="500" height="183">
At the end of December 2014, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) estimated that there were 9,448,300 households, while APRA reported that there were 5,213,000 mortgages to Australian ADIs. This indicates that 55.2% of Australia’s housing stock was mortgaged to Australian ADIs. The 55.2% figure is the highest on record, noting that records have only been calculated from the September quarter of 2011. 
The ABS also reports the value of residential housing stock at $5.4 trillion and given the $1.258 trillion in outstanding mortgages to Australian ADIs, 23.3% of the value of all housing stock is mortgaged.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4313" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Chart-41.jpg" alt="Chart 4" width="500" height="179">
The average value of the outstanding mortgages, according to APRA’s data, was $241,400 at the end of 2014, with the average loan size having increased by 3.4% over the past year.  Loans with offset facilities ($285,900) and interest-only mortgages ($311,300) had much higher average loan sizes which have increased by 2.1% and 2.8% over the past year. 
Reverse mortgages had an average size of $93,100, having increased by 3.8% over the year. Low documentation loans had an average outstanding amount of $204,800 and other non-standard loans had an average of $211,900, outstanding loan sizes have fallen over the year -2.9% and -7.1% respectively.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4314" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Chart-51.jpg" alt="Chart 5" width="500" height="179">
Over the December 2014 quarter, there were 93,231 new loans written by Australian ADIs. 
Of these loans, 23,183 (24.9%) had a loan-to-value ratio (LVR) of less than 60%, 38,964 (41.8%) had an LVR of between 60% and 80%, 20,464 (21.9%) had an LVR of 80% to 90% and the remaining 10,620 (11.4%) had an LVR of more than 90%. 
Year-on-year, the number of loans with an LVR of more than 90% have fallen by 6.9%.  Over the same period, loans with an LVR of less than 60% have increased by 10.8%, loans with an LVR of 60% to 80% have increased by 13.1% and loans with an LVR between 80% and 90% have increased by 17.7%.
Given APRA had concerns of the rate of growth in the investment segment of the market, this latest data is likely cause APRA some discomfort.
Not only is this data showing the investment segment growing at a rate much higher than 10% annually, but also interest-only lending which tends to be reflective of investment lending is also increasing substantially. 
On a more positive note, although investment lending is increasing it is encouraging to see the drop in higher LVR lending above 90%, which suggests that ADIs are being somewhat more cautious around higher risk lending especially considering the overall number of loans being written has continued to grow.
We can expect the regulator will be monitoring lending standards with more focus after the release of this data, particularly from the perspective of investment lending and interest only mortages.
</body></html>

ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Increasing investor interest-only borrowing likely causing APRA discomfort: Kusher

<html><body>
The median house price for Sydney is now $873,786, after a 14% rise in prices during 2014, according to Fairfax's The Domain Group. 
Apartments rose 10% over the year to $597,668.
Domain Group senior economist Dr Andrew Wilson said the figures confirmed the Sydney property market was in "hyperdrive."
It came on top of the 15% house price rise in 2013.
He said the rest of the country was "in second gear". 
Much of the Sydney growth was in the December quarter when the median house price increased 4.1%. 
Melbourne house prices grew by just 0.6% over the December quarter, up annually by 3.4% to a $610,470, according to Domain Group's House Price Report. 
Wilson forecasts 7% to 10% growth for 2015 for Sydney, Fairfax Media reported on the Fairfax group report. Dr Wilson expects Melbourne house prices to grow by 3% to 4% this year.
Sydney's upper north shore and north-west rose by a stellar 21% to $1.18 million, the Sydney inner west by 18% to $1,275,000 while just 7% growth in the Sydney east and inner city to $1.65 million.
The lower north shore had the highest media at $1.81 million, up 13%.
Wilson said most of the house price growth was in the $1 million to $2 million price range.
Canberra house prices increased in the final 2014 quarter to $585,630 and units increased to $412,835.
The median house price growth for the year was 0.5%, the smallest annual rise since 2011.
Units were down over the year by 0.9 per cent, the Domain Group report indicated.
The national median house price increased by 2.1% in the quarter – the strongest for the year - while units had a national quarterly rise of 1.7%.
 
Brisbane's median house price hit a record $489,680, up 1.5% over the quarter and 6.1% over a year, slightly stronger than the 5.1% growth in 2013.
 
{mijopolls 84} 
</body></html>

jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Sydney house prices in hyperdrive, with rest of Australia in second gear: Domain Group

<html><body>
The extent of the continued Sydney house price surge is well illustrated in the latest RBA chart pack.
<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/chart-pack/household-sector" target="_blank">The housing prices chart</a> (pictured below) shows not only the growing gap after Sydney's price escalation between traditional rival Melbourne, but also the price proximity that has been surrendered since the previous 2010 peak.
<img src="/images/2015/01/09/6bl-houspri%203.gif" alt="">
CoreLogic RP Data also shows much the same pattern in the relationship between Melbourne and Perth prices. 
</body></html>

Sydney's 2014 house price surge: RBA chart pack

<html><body>
For the first time since July 2011, CommSec’s quarterly economic ranking of the states and territories has shown New South Wales lead the pack.
The ranking takes into account economic growth, retail spending, equipment investment, unemployment, construction work, population growth, housing finance and commencements.
Closely following New South Wales is Western Australia, which has fallen from top spot, and the Northern Territory.
Here’s the ranking:
<ol>
<li>New South Wales 
</li>
<li>Western Australia 
</li>
<li>Northern Territory 
</li>
<li>Victoria 
</li>
<li>Queensland 
</li>
<li>South Australia 
</li>
<li>ACT 
</li>
<li>Tasmania</li>
</ol>
New South Wales recorded top rankings for population growth and dwelling starts, while it scored second for retail trade, business investment and unemployment, third on housing finance and fourth on overall construction work and economic growth.
Western Australia, while still ranking strongly, lost on retail trade, equipment investment and population growth as the mining boom fades. Housing finance, however, was strongest in the state.
While the Northern Territory ranked third, it is the top on five of the indicators, but third on dwelling starts, and even further down the list for population growth and housing finance.
Victoria and Queensland ranked very closely.
In Western Australia, Victoria, New South Wales and the ACT trend housing finance commitments were recorded as above decade averages.
CommSec’s report notes that the simple reason for New South Wales being propelled to the top of the ranks is “housing”. It suggests the state is playing catch up after years of underbuilding, with demand exceeding supply and pushing the vacancy rate down to record lows. In Western Australia, housing was noted to be the crucial ingredient, along with construction, to sustain the economy.
</body></html>

jduke-EHk3XBmHkn

New South Wales leads the pack: Where the states and territories’ economies rank

<html><body>
Time for an abridged gallop to sum up what's going on in Aussie housing markets.
Interest rates and inflation
First up, I have believed for some time that due to rising unemployment and inadequate jobs growth interest rates may need to fall further, which will in turn continue to support demand for housing. A recent Bloomberg survey of economists found that not a single one of them agreed with me on that point, however slowly but surely they are falling back into line.
Wages growth nationally remains sluggish at 2.6%, and, with evident slack in the labour market, non-tradables inflation has been declining as recorded in the chart below.
Although we haven't had an official Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) inflation reading since last month, the monthly TD-MI gauge is easing back towards the bottom of the 2% to 3% target band.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH14br-tradeinf-small.gif" alt="">
If this is followed by something similar in the official quarterly consumer price index that would leave the door wide open for another interest rate cut in 2015.
Note how futures markets now concur that there is more than a sporting chance of a rate cut in the first six months of 2015, and effectively zero chance of a hike.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH2.gif" alt="">
Demand: population growth
Our analysis of the latest quarter's population growth revealed our expected rotation away from the mining states with population growth slowing significantly in Queensland and Western Australia, but exploding higher in financials and services-focused New South Wales to nearly +115,000 over the year. And how:
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH3.jpg" alt="">
The long term trend in our chart below continues to show that almost all of the material growth in population takes place in only the four main states.
One of several challenges facing South Australia in particular is a brain drain, a demographic scourge involving the best and brightest heading to Sydney and Melbourne which becomes evident through analysis of the net migration sub-indices.
To date, this net interstate migration from South Australia has been countered by net overseas immigration. But this will only work effectively and sustainably for the state if new jobs are created, which has not been happening for the past half decade, hence rising levels of unemployment. Something needs to change in this regard.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH4.jpg" alt="">
South Australia may rise to and overcome this challenge, I merely note the risks facing the local economy here, which seldom seem to be mentioned elsewhere.
Demand: jobs growth
The Labour Force survey is presently suffering from a major credibility deficit and has led to the ABS to be something of a figure of fun over recent months (harsh, given recurring budget cuts) with the apparent largest jobs 'gain' in history followed next month by a total reversal.
As a long term buy-and-hold investor I would always advise following the longer term trend anyway, but this is even more so now the case given that the seasonal monthly data has been proven to be so wildly volatile.
The data below underscores the point about the problem child that is the South Australian economy, with close to zero jobs having been created on a net basis for nearly five years.
The strongest economy for the past two years, as discussed here frequently, has been that of New South Wales, while the mining states are now transitioning from construction to production.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH5.jpg" alt="">
Below the long term growth in employment chart shows New South Wales to be in relatively good shape, but the southern states – and now to a lesser extent the mining states – struggling.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH6.jpg" alt="">
But perhaps the real story in the jobs market is the alarming gulf in fortunes being experienced between the prospering capital cities such as Sydney and Melbourne and the simultaneous hollowing out of the respective regional economies, as I explored here.
The total number of full-time employed in the regions of the main states now sits below 2006 levels, and this casualisation of the workforce may have surprisingly harsh negative impacts for regional housing markets in the decades ahead.
This article continues on the next page. Please click below.
 
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
 
Demand: housing finance
The August Housing Finance data showed a slight decline on the preceding month, leading to a predictable knee-jerk response from commentators, but monthly data rarely rises (or falls) in a straight line and the trend in housing finance still looks to be strong overall.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH7.jpg" alt="">
The owner occupier housing finance data may have revealed the first signs of weakness in some states, but saw Queenslander financing looking particularly strong. Good times are ahead in Brisbane in 2015, it appears, after a lengthy wait.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH8ROLLING.jpg" alt="">
Last week the ABS Lending Finance data was also released, which details where investors are buying. It's a clear cut Sydney boom which we anticipated long ago.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH94c%20inv%20loans.jpg" alt="">
Supply: building 
Rather than regurgitate our extensive chart packs, just a few takeaway points here on dwelling supply.
At this stage of the property cycle plenty of new supply should be coming online, rental growth should be easing and property investors need to be wary of areas with a looming oversupply of dwellings.
Melbourne and Victoria continue to approve thousand of houses for construction, as has been the case for more than a decade.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH10.jpg" alt="">
However, it is actually apartments which generally represent the greater oversupply risk in this cycle.
Note that after an approvals boom, we now see Sydney approvals and construction rolling over and the risk of oversupply easing back, except in a few specific suburbs.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH11.jpg" alt="">
Apartments commenced are picking up very strongly in Queensland.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH12.jpg" alt="">
The apartments completed chart below underscores a key point – New South Wales has completed a meagre 17,500 units (as well as 19,100 houses) in the year to June 2014, which compares to state population growth of somewhere approaching 115,000 across the same time horizon.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH13.jpg" alt="">
The raw numbers should tell you straight away that the risk of a massive Sydney oversupply in aggregate is tenuous unless approvals and construction get a second wind, with the Greater Sydney population set to leap higher by almost 90,000 heads in only one year.
It is true that there is plenty more to come in the pipeline - Greater Sydney has approved just over 26,500 units in the year to August 2014, but this uptrend has already peaked some six months previously on a rolling annual basis, and is set to ease back to around 20,000 in due course.
House approvals also have risen very steadily in Greater Sydney to above 12,500 on a rolling annual basis, but even if 100 percent of these approvals in the pipeline make it through to commencement and then completion (which they won't) there is no pressing risk of a huge oversupply at this juncture.
Melbourne on the other hand already has a clear oversupply problem in existence in some inner locations, while the commencements data also shows that inner Brisbane is steadily getting around to constructing thousands of apartments.
Investors in attached Brisbane dwellings should steer away from those city locations with an oversupply risk and in particular purchase only properties with a point of scarcity (e.g. great outlook/river view/exceptional location).
This article continues on the next page. Please click below.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
 
Supply: stock and vacancies
Penultimately, Melbourne has absolutely stacks of stock on the market, about double that of Sydney, with an unprecedented 1800 Melbourne auctions coming right up on Cox Plate weekend. This will likely slow the market. Sydney has the opposite problem with a dearth of stock on the market while demand remains strong.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH14.jpg" alt="">
When markets move into the increasing supply phase vacancy rates should eventually rise, and this has happened to some extent in Melbourne and Perth with vacancy rates up at 2.5% on a city-wide basis. Perth investors should look for well-located houses over units and apartments, in our opinion.
Meanwhile Brisbane and Canberra have vacancy rates sitting around the national average of 2.2% on SQM Research's measures.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH15.jpg" alt="">
For all the expert talk of a Sydney oversupply, the harbour city's vacancy rate slipped back to just 1.7% in August.
Meanwhile, in further proof that real estate markets do cycle, the years of flat markets, lack of price gains and therefore moribund levels of dwelling construction in Adelaide and Hobart has resulted in low vacancy rates, and these markets could in turn pick up a little as a result.
Although I used to live in Darwin I haven't been up that way lately, so will just note here that there are just a few worrying indicators in the "Top End", with sliding prices, rising stock on market, signs of quite rapidly rising vacancy rates and a resources boom which is threatening to roll over.
The Darwin property boom may risk follow the mining boom back down from whence it came, so watch this space.
Dwelling prices
By this time of year most of the year's property market predictions have normally been conveniently forgotten about or subtly amended. Not ours! Let's see what we got right and what we didn't.
Our Adelaide 2014 market forecast was +0% to +3% capital growth, and RP Data's index has a year to date gain of 3.39% with a couple of months still to run.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/16.jpg" alt="">
Brisbane and Gold Coast tracking nicely for our +2% to +5% capital growth prediction. Brisbane has some of the best prospects for 2015 and beyond after a lean half decade.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/GRAPH17.jpg" alt="">
Melbourne looks set to do better than the top end of our +5% gain forecast, though from a macro perspective it does now seem likely that the market is set to slow up, with whispers afoot of the much-vaunted "buyers market" returning.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/graph%2018.jpg" alt="">
The Perth market is holding up OK, and notably houses are faring much better than apartments on most indices. Our forecast is on track.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/graph19.jpg" alt="">
The Sydney market has been rock solid and will finish 2014 ahead of our +6% to +9% capital growth forecast.
SQM Research believes that the Sydney market will replicate this capital growth once again with another 8% to 12% growth in the year ahead too. We'll release our own 2015 forecasts in due course as well as our 2015 <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank">Buyers Eye</a> housing market outlook reports for London, Sydney and Brisbane.
<img src="/images/2014/10/20/graph20.jpg" alt="">
Overall we could yet score a hit with our forecasts on all five markets, but the Melbourne data needs to start slowing for that to be the case, which it just never quite seems to do.
Watch out for sliding unit rents at this stage in the cycle as new supply comes online. Owners of properties with a unique appeal, in an outstanding location or with a key element of scarcity value will of course have few problems with rental vacancies in 2015, but lower quality stock in other locations could see asking rents getting dropped or have issues securing tenants.
</body></html>

pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Australia's macro markets: the numbers you should know

<html><body>
The vacancy rate across the country fell during September to 2.2%, at 64,458 vacancies, according to SQM Research.
Stable vacancies were seen over the past few months, with this being the first notable decrease, which SQM Research’s managing director Louis Christopher notes that it could be due to seasonality. Earlier years have reflected similar decreases.
The current vacancy rates, for September 2014:
Perth: 2.5%
Melbourne: 2.5%
Brisbane: 2.2%
Canberra: 2.1%
Darwin: 1.8%
Sydney: 1.7%
Adelaide: 1.5%
Hobart: 1.4%
All capitals fell over September, excluding Darwin which has seen a 1% increase over the year and a 0.3% increase over the month.
Perth, where there has been a substantial softening of 1% over the year as well, saw a 0.1% reduction over the month.
The surprising result is Hobart, where SQM Research notes that a recovery appears to be in progress. The capital recorded the largest yearly decrease – dropping 0.5% from 1.9% in September 2013. Over the month it fell a further 0.2%.
</body></html>

Rental listings drop, yet may be seasonal result: SQM Research

<html><body>
Building activity for home starts is at its highest in 20 years, but there’s an obvious downside, explains Housing Industry Association senior economist Shane Garrett.
Pointing to 2012 when activity was low, he said that breaking through the 180,000 starts mark by this time was beyond even the most optimistic of expectations.
However, there’s no avoiding the negatives.
“The multi-unit dwelling segment saw a sharp fall during the second quarter of this year, with detached house building also nudging down a little,” warns Garrett.
“On the renovations side, the volume of work done also fell, with a 3.0% reduction in activity during the June 2014 quarter.”
During the June 2014 quarter, new housing starts clocked in at 45,527 in seasonally adjusted terms. While this is a 6.9% drop on the previous quarter, the 2013/2014 starts totalled 180,833 – the highest 12 month total since March 1995.
During the June quarter, detached house commencements dropped by 1.1%, while multi-unit dwellings dropped by 15%, when considering seasonally adjusted figures.
With their recent estimates pointing to 186,000 new dwellings required each year until 2050, he notes that the figures are still short.
“Even in such a strong upturn, we are still short of this requirement today. This is a stark illustration of the serious supply-side issues which will need addressing,” he said.
June 2014 saw new home starts declining in most states. In the ACT, New South Wales and Victoria the drops were most pronounced with a 48%, 12.3% and 3.3% decline respectively. Queensland and South Australia fell modestly, by 1.3% and 1.7%.
Meanwhile, Tasmania, the Northern Territory and Western Australia saw an uptick by 28.7%, 18.3% and 2% respectively.
</body></html>

Home starts highest in two decades but sharp downside clear: HIA

<html><body>
The latest NAB Residential Property Index for the third quarter of 2014 was unchanged overall. But it seems some capital cities are doing far better than others with the increasing presence of foreign buyers an the emerging theme.
NAB Group chief economist Alan Oster said while the overall index remained unchanged, Queensland has now overtaken Victoria as the strongest state, and South Australia and the Northern Territory were the big improvers.
While the outlook for national house prices in the next two years improved across the country, rental growth is expected to be subdued and heading backwards in all states except South Australia and Northern Territory.
NAB Economics’ analysis expects house price increases to be more modest in coming months, as a result of rising unemployment, sluggish household income growth, affordability issues and cost of living pressures.
"We are forecasting average house price growth of around 4% through the year to September 2015 and 2% through the year to September 2016," said Oster.
"Brisbane and Sydney are expected to lead the market in the next year, followed by Melbourne and Adelaide, with Perth lagging."
With sentiment continuing to fall in Western Australia, now at an all time low, there was also a recorded significant pick up in foreign buying activity for new property, particularly in Victoria, with predictions that it will continue. Foreign buyers account for one in six purchasers across the country, and one in four in Victoria.
"Foreign buyers accounted for 16.8% of total demand for new property in Q3, or about one in six of all buyers, with this share tipped to rise to 17.3% over the next year. Foreign buyers were more active in all states, but especially in Victoria where they accounted for an estimated 24.8% of total demand, or on in four all new property sales," said Oster.
The biggest constraint on new housing developments across the country continued to be housing affordability. Meanwhile, employment security remained the biggest impediment to buying an established home.
</body></html>

Data

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Data

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News