<p>Construction is set to begin at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/orchard-mews-glen-iris-18-scott-grove-glen-iris-vic-3146">Orchard Mews</a> in Glen Iris, with&nbsp;PC Whitehall &amp; Sons&nbsp;now appointed as the townhome development moves into its next phase.</p>

<p>The development by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/montcoeur">MontCoeur</a>,&nbsp;located at 18 Scott Grove, is now around 30 per cent sold, with completion targeted for late-2027.</p>

<p>Orchard Mews comprises a curated collection of three- and four-bedroom customisable townhomes, positioned within one of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/glen-iris-vic-3146">Glen Iris</a>’ more tightly held residential streets. The low-density project has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a>, with landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jack-merlo">Jack Merlo</a>, bringing together a team known for high-end residential projects across Melbourne.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150128 project_image_fid=366285]</p>

<p>The development is defined by its focus on flexible living and long-term usability. Each residence includes multiple living zones and a customisable multipurpose room, allowing buyers to tailor spaces to suit changing needs, whether as a home office, additional bedroom, wellness area or entertainment space.</p>

<p>Architecturally, the townhomes emphasise natural light and spatial volume, with dual-aspect layouts and double-height living areas incorporated into the design. Interiors feature natural stone benchtops, premium appliances, and a neutral material palette intended to support everyday functionality rather than statement-driven finishes.</p>

<p>All residences are all-electric and include private lifts and secure double garages, reflecting a broader shift toward sustainability and future-focused housing in Melbourne’s established suburbs.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150128 project_image_fid=366277]</p>

<p>Outdoor connections are also central to the offering, with a mix of private courtyards and terraces extending internal living spaces and integrating with the landscaped surrounds.</p>

<p>The Scott Grove address places Orchard Mews within close proximity to some of Melbourne’s key lifestyle and education amenities, including Scotch College, Sacré Cœur, Cabrini Hospital and the retail hub of Chadstone. Public transport access is also nearby, with trams and Gardiner Station providing connectivity to the CBD and surrounding suburbs.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150128]</p>


Joel Robinson

Construction to commence at luxury Glen Iris townhome project, Orchard Mews

<p data-end="150" data-start="66">A rare new apartment development has been proposed on the fringe of St Ives Village.</p>

<p data-end="370" data-start="152">Developer Newquest Property has lodged plans for a low-rise apartment project designed by well-regarded architecture firm Warren &amp; Mahoney, which is best known for its work in the multi-residential sector in Melbourne.</p>

<p data-end="370" data-start="152">The building, proposed for a 1,916 sqm site on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/st-ives-residences-3-5-memorial-avenue-nsw-2075">Memorial Avenue</a> opposite St Ives Village Green, has been designed to blend into the surrounding natural environment.</p>

<p data-end="370" data-start="152"><img alt="St Ives" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5c1c7437-2fba-4345-a6d7-05321714ad3e" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-04%20at%201.28.46%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=KrYyMaJvNqR7vbx0xbB3Ef8sJ6FuHpmn" /></p>

<p data-end="745" data-start="537">“Drawing inspiration from the pale trunks and flowering canopies of the scribbly gums and blue gums prevalent in the area, a considered material palette was developed,” the architectural design report states.</p>

<p data-end="912" data-start="747">“This palette references the established materiality of the suburb while elevating it through refined finishes to achieve a more luxurious architectural expression.”</p>

<p data-end="1185" data-start="914">Of the 33 apartments proposed, 21 will be three-bedroom residences. The remaining mix includes nine two-bedroom apartments, one one-bedroom apartment and two four-bedroom residences. The development will be supported by 62 car parking spaces and 33 secure bicycle spaces.</p>

<p data-end="1270" data-start="1187">The proposal would replace two single-storey brick buildings currently on the site.</p>

<p data-end="1270" data-start="1187"><img alt="St Ives" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="21422eaf-09a9-4439-9278-b9bd9daf22a1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-04%20at%201.38.10%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=v.fXSgcUcEscvOZzqcjG5nk3gVqk_Amt" /></p>

<p data-end="1467" data-start="1272">St Ives remains a relatively untapped market for new apartment development. North Shore developer WINIM has a number of projects in the area, while INCA is nearing completion of Ellis Residences.</p>

<p data-end="1635" data-start="1469">More recently, Traders In Purple has lodged plans for one of the denser projects proposed in the suburb, a 75-apartment development on a 5,900 sqm site on Cowan Road.</p>

<p data-end="1635" data-start="1469">NewQuest, a construction, design and development firm, has delivered over 24 projects across commercial, residential, industrial, and lad markets.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>


First look: NewQuest Property proposes new St Ives apartment development

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/centa-property-group">Centa Property Group</a> has achieved two major milestones at its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bilinga-house-107-golden-four-drive-bilinga-qld-4225">Bilinga House</a> apartment development in the sought-after southern Gold Coast.</p>

<p>They've almost sold 50 per cent of the Golden Four Drive building, while at the same time announcing the commencement of construction through reputable builder Greyburn Construction.</p>

<p>The boutique 10-storey building, with 47 two- and three-bedroom apartments, now has a mid-to-late 2028 completion date.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5333]</p>

<p>The <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>-designed project is positioned just 200 metres from Bilinga Beach and brings a relatively rare apartment offering to a market that has seen limited new supply in recent years.</p>

<p>Residences have been designed to maximise natural light and ventilation, with open-plan interiors, generous glazing, and material palettes that reflect the surrounding coastal landscape.</p>

<p>Interiors incorporate engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, and custom joinery, with layouts designed to adapt to both permanent living and lock-and-leave use.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5336]</p>

<p>Rothelowman Senior Project Leader Matthew Tencate said the design approach centres on liveability and community.</p>

<p>“Providing curated on-site amenities and communal spaces for residents that facilitate a sense of community, liveability, and wellness,” Tencate said.</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a suite of private amenities including a pool, gym, sauna, and communal alfresco areas, alongside practical features such as surfboard storage and bicycle facilities.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5336]</p>

<p>Centa Property Group Director Jason Yuen said the project has been designed to appeal to a range of buyers seeking flexibility in how they use their property.</p>

<p>“Bilinga House is designed for those who want the best of both worlds – a modern beachside escape with the flexibility to generate income when you're not there,” Yuen said.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150037 project_image_fid=5338]</p>

<p>Bilinga remains one of the quieter pockets of the Gold Coast, sitting between the more established hubs of Coolangatta and Palm Beach. Its appeal has strengthened in recent years, supported by proximity to the Gold Coast Airport and the Oceanway coastal path.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150037]</p>


Bilinga House apartments snapped up as Greyburn commences construction

<p>Breaking into the Sydney property market has long felt out of reach for many first home buyers, particularly as median house prices sit above $1.6 million and unit prices push beyond $900,000.</p>

<p>But entry points still exist in pockets of Greater Western Sydney, where pricing, government incentives, and product mix are aligning to make ownership more attainable.</p>

<p>Understanding where those opportunities sit, and how the numbers actually stack up, is becoming increasingly important for buyers weighing up their next move.</p>

<h2>Work out what you can actually afford</h2>

<p>Sydney is expensive, but it isn’t uniformly expensive. The Greater Parramatta region continues to offer comparatively accessible entry points, particularly for buyers open to alternative configurations like studios.</p>

<p>There's an assumption that a first home needs to be a certain size, that anything smaller than a one-bedder is a concession rather than a choice. That assumption doesn't hold up against what well-designed studios in the right location actually offer: immediate liveability, strong urban amenity, and a price point that makes the deposit target realistic rather than theoretical.</p>

<p>At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/mason-main-merrylands-249-259-merrylands-road-merrylands-nsw-2160">Mason &amp; Main</a>, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/coronation-property">Coronation Property</a>'s multi-award winning precinct in Merrylands, studio apartments are unlike the typical studio configuration.</p>

<p>Starting from $498,000, the bedroom is fully enclosed, separated from the living area by a cavity sliding door, creating a genuinely private sleeping space that functions more like a one-bedroom apartment than a traditional open-plan studio.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=31751 project_image_fid=359814]</p>

<p>At 42 sqm internally, with an open-plan kitchen, built-in robes, modern bathroom, and separate laundry, the apartments are designed for everyday liveability rather than short-term use.</p>

<p>With a five per cent deposit under the Federal Government's First Home Guarantee, that equates to a deposit of around $24,200, achievable for many first home buyers without the added cost of Lenders Mortgage Insurance.</p>

<h2>Understand the real cost of renting versus buying</h2>

<p>For buyers weighing up the shift from renting to owning, the numbers are closer than many expect.</p>

<p>Here’s how the numbers stack up for a studio at Mason &amp; Main (based on a $498,000 purchase):</p>

<ul>
	<li><strong>Purchase price:</strong> $498,000</li>
	<li><strong>Five per cent deposit (First Home Guarantee):</strong> ~$24,900</li>
	<li><strong>Loan amount:</strong> ~$473,100</li>
	<li><strong>Estimated mortgage repayment (6.29% variable, 30-year term):</strong> ~$675–$695/week*</li>
	<li><strong>Estimated rental return:</strong> $590–$620/week*</li>
	<li><strong>Rental yield:</strong> 6.16% - 6.47%</li>
</ul>

<p>At this level, the gap between renting and owning is relatively narrow, particularly when factoring in long-term equity, with rental returns also making the apartments a viable option for investors.</p>

<p>The rental range reflects current asking rents for remaining studio stock in the development and, based on prevailing asking prices, equates to an indicative gross rental yield of up to 6.47 per cent.</p>

<p>For buyers seeking more internal space, Mason &amp; Main also offers a range of one-bedroom apartments from $629,000, alongside larger one-bedroom plus multipurpose room configurations priced from $680,000 - all priced under $800,000 and eligible for first home buyer incentives.</p>

<ul>
	<li><strong>Purchase price:</strong> $629,000</li>
	<li><strong>20 per cent deposit:</strong> ~$125,800 (5% deposit on exchange: $31,450)</li>
	<li><strong>Loan amount 80%:</strong> ~$503,200</li>
	<li><strong>Estimated mortgage repayment:</strong> ~$720–$740/week*</li>
	<li><strong>Estimated rental return:</strong> $650–$680/week*</li>
	<li><strong>Rental yield:</strong>&nbsp;5.37% - 5.62%</li>
</ul>

<p>One-bedroom apartments continue to present a balanced option for both owner-occupiers and investors, supported by steady rental demand across Western Sydney.<span style="font-size:small"><span style="color:#222222"><span style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><span style="font-style:normal"><span style="font-variant-ligatures:normal"><span style="font-weight:400"><span style="white-space:normal"><span style="background-color:#ffffff"><span style="text-decoration-thickness:initial"><span style="text-decoration-style:initial"><span style="text-decoration-color:initial">&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=31751 project_image_fid=359812]</p>

<h2>Make sure you're across the government incentives</h2>

<p>Government incentives continue to play a key role in reducing the upfront cost barrier.</p>

<p>At Mason &amp; Main, studio, one, and two-bedroom apartments are priced under $800,000, allowing eligible buyers to access a full stamp duty exemption under the NSW First Home Buyers Assistance Scheme.</p>

<p>On a $498,000 purchase, that represents a saving of roughly $17,900 that would otherwise need to be paid at settlement.</p>

<p>Combined with the First Home Guarantee, which enables purchases with as little as a five per cent deposit, the total capital required to secure a home is significantly reduced compared to traditional lending pathways.</p>

<h2>No waiting, no uncertainty</h2>

<p>For first home buyers who want to move sooner rather than later, Mason &amp; Main removes one of the more common pain points from the purchase process entirely. The development is already complete and move-in ready, meaning buyers can walk through the apartments, inspect the finishes, and have full certainty about what they're purchasing before signing anything.</p>

<p>Coronation brought in renowned architecture firm <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a> to design the development.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"The project's design drew inspiration from the area's rich heritage, in particular the nearby brickworks and aqueduct, infusing a contemporary perspective to seamlessly integrate historical influences into the design," Woods Bagot Principal Dom Alvaro says.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=31751 project_image_fid=736]</p>

<h2>Factor in location and lifestyle</h2>

<p>Beyond the apartment itself, the surrounding infrastructure matters, particularly for a first purchase. Merrylands Station sits 350 metres from the development, putting the Parramatta CBD a five-minute drive away and the Sydney CBD roughly 25 minutes via the Western Line. Directly across the road is Stockland <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/merrylands-nsw-2160">Merrylands</a>, one of Greater Western Sydney's major retail centres.</p>

<p>At street level, Mason &amp; Main's own retail and dining precinct has more than 30 tenants trading, including Iftar, Macelleria, Hayat, San Churro, Yuzu, and Fat Jaks. Residents also have access to a resort-style pool, a Technogym-equipped gym, private dining rooms, and a rooftop terrace with panoramic views across Parramatta, the Sydney CBD, and the Blue Mountains, all exclusive to the building.</p>

<p>Due to the mix of configurations, including studios which are rarely offered in today's new apartment market, first home buyers and investors have driven Mason &amp; Main to over 90 per cent sold.</p>

<p>Coronation Property Managing Director Joe Nahas says the development is driving a revitalisation of Merrylands, setting a high standard for future developments in the area.</p>

<p>Mason &amp; Main is move-in ready and is the latest in a series of award-winning mixed-use developments by Coronation Property.</p>

<p><em>Disclaimer: Mortgage repayment figures are estimates only, based on a 6.29 per cent variable rate over a 30-year term (Canstar, April 2026). Pricing and rental estimates are indicative and based on current listings and project information. Gross yield figures are indicative and derived from asking prices and estimated rental ranges. Stamp duty savings are indicative only. Buyers should seek independent financial and legal advice before proceeding.</em></p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=31751]</p>


How first home buyers can enter the Sydney property market for under $500k

<p data-end="390" data-start="110">Australia’s housing debate has rarely been more urgent. The National Housing Supply and Affordability Council forecasts the country could fall around 262,000 homes short of housing needs by 2029, underscoring the scale of the challenge facing planners, governments and developers.</p>

<p data-end="514" data-start="392">In response, much of the conversation has centred on high-density towers around transport corridors and strategic centres.</p>

<p data-end="676" data-start="516">Diversified developer Coronation Property, while also focused on well-located, strategic sites, is incorporating an arguably underutilised typology, the terrace.</p>

<p data-end="983" data-start="678">Difficult to integrate into true high-rise developments, terraces have become a defining feature of Coronation’s lower-rise portfolio, including projects in Ashbury and Erskineville. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/ashbury-terraces-165-171-milton-street-ashbury-nsw-2193">Ashbury Terraces</a> places a stronger emphasis on this housing type, forming part of a broader community mix.</p>

<p data-end="1188" data-start="985">At its Erskineville development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lillian-erskineville-9-metters-street-erskineville-nsw-2043">Lillian</a>, terraces are more limited, with just a handful&nbsp;included within the wider, predominantly apartment-led precinct, one of the first developments to launch in Erskineville in several years.</p>

<p data-end="1188" data-start="985">[smartcode_project:default project_id=135149 project_image_fid=368392]</p>

<p data-end="1524" data-start="1190">Terrace residents at Lillian benefit from many of the same advantages as apartment owners, the lock-up-and-leave lifestyle and access to shared amenities like the rooftop wellness space, but with significantly more space.</p>

<p data-end="1524" data-start="1190">Spanning multiple levels, the terraces also feature front and rear courtyards, providing direct access to the central landscaped gardens within the precinct.</p>

<h3 data-end="212" data-section-id="1n97jye" data-start="191">The terrace model</h3>

<p data-end="464" data-start="214">Terrace housing has long been part of Australia’s urban fabric. From Paddington and Surry Hills to Glebe and Annandale, rows of terrace homes have shaped neighbourhood streets, offering a housing form that sits between detached houses and apartments.</p>

<p data-end="631" data-start="466">The contemporary terrace, however, addresses many of the limitations of older designs, where narrow staircases and constrained layouts often compromised liveability.</p>

<p data-end="703" data-start="633">[smartcode_project:default project_id=135149 project_image_fid=368157]</p>

<p data-end="834" data-start="705">“Terraces represent one of the city’s most intelligent housing models,” says Joe Nahas, Managing Director of Coronation Property.</p>

<p data-end="1085" data-start="836">“They deliver density without losing the human scale that makes neighbourhoods liveable. In many ways, they provide a bridge between the Sydney we know and the Sydney we need to build. If Sydney is going to grow well, it can’t rely on towers alone.”</p>

<hr data-end="1090" data-start="1087" />
<h3 data-end="1124" data-section-id="1a7l0gw" data-start="1092">The evolution of the terrace</h3>

<p data-end="1262" data-start="1126">That thinking has shaped Coronation’s approach at Ashbury Terraces, where the terrace typology has been reinterpreted for modern living.</p>

<p data-end="1459" data-start="1264">Designed by SJB, the project recently received recognition at the 2026 Better Future World Design Awards, acknowledging its architectural clarity and response to the surrounding suburban context.</p>

<p data-end="1564" data-start="1461">SJB Director Adam Haddow says the intent was to evolve a familiar housing form rather than reinvent it.</p>

<p data-end="1723" data-start="1566">“The terrace is one of Sydney’s most familiar housing forms, so our approach at Ashbury was to reinterpret that typology in a contemporary way,” Haddow says.</p>

<p data-end="1888" data-start="1725">“The homes are designed to sit comfortably within the existing neighbourhood while introducing more light, landscape and shared spaces that support modern living.”</p>

<p data-end="2082" data-start="1890">Ashbury Terraces combines terraces, apartments and penthouses across a series of low-rise buildings, integrating contemporary architecture with landscaped communal spaces and resident amenity.</p>

<p data-end="2264" data-start="2084">That same typology is now being carried into Coronation’s Lillian development in Erskineville, where a smaller number of terraces sit within a predominantly apartment-led precinct.</p>

<hr data-end="2269" data-start="2266" />
<h3 data-end="2289" data-section-id="cazuws" data-start="2271">Buyer response</h3>

<p data-end="2486" data-start="2291">Coronation’s decision to include terraces at Lillian was informed by strong buyer feedback from Ashbury Terraces, where purchasers were drawn to the flexibility and scale the housing type offers.</p>

<p data-end="2588" data-start="2488">One resident, Sweta Pursem, purchased a terrace as a single buyer, citing its long-term versatility.</p>

<p data-end="2720" data-start="2590">“As a single buyer, it might seem surprising that I chose a terrace over an apartment, but I was thinking long term,” Pursem says.</p>

<p data-end="2851" data-start="2722">“The terraces are incredibly versatile, catering to a range of lifestyles while still offering the space and privacy of a house.”</p>

<p data-end="2962" data-start="2853">For Pursem, the multi-level layout provides a level of functionality not typically found in apartment living.</p>

<p data-end="3202" data-start="2964">“Having a separate living area from the bedroom and home office makes everyday living feel both functional and comfortable. When friends and family come to visit, the layout gives a sense of privacy while still feeling open and spacious.”</p>

<p data-end="3279" data-start="3204">Her terrace also supports a more connected, lifestyle-driven way of living.</p>

<p data-end="3537" data-start="3281">“I love entertaining, and the courtyard is ideal for relaxed weekend drinks with friends. I tend to use each level differently throughout the day, it creates a natural rhythm between work, downtime and entertaining, which I didn’t have in apartment living.”</p>

<p data-end="3692" data-start="3539">Ashbury Terraces is now complete and ready to move in, while Lillian in Erskineville is under construction and expected to welcome residents in mid-2027.</p>


Coronation champions terraces as a key piece of Sydney’s housing mix

Credit Growth

<html><body>
<p>Reserve Bank assets have continued to increase to $319 billion as at mid-December. </p>

<p>But as money growth scaled fresh cycle highs of 12.4 per cent in November, credit growth continued to slump to new cycle lows of just 1.7 per cent. </p>

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/credit_v_money_warg_1.jpg" rel="gallery-all"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="331" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/credit_v_money_warg_1.jpg?itok=9hlONLhn" width="580"></a></figure><p>Business credit growth was negative again in November, as it was in October, and there's been little need for personal credit to grow lately as stimulus (in fact personal credit growth has crashed deeply into negative territory this year). </p>

<p>Housing credit growth continued to move up to a 17-month high, but overall will be more modest in this cycle with interest-only loans outstanding having been crunched lower from $580 billion to around $260 billion. </p>

<p>To date the growth has been all about owner-occupiers, with this cohort recording +5.4 per cent credit growth over the year to November 2020. </p>

<p>The housing credit impulse already points to higher housing prices in the first quarter of 2021. </p>

<p>With enquiries from investors suddenly jumping in December housing credit growth will likely rise further, in turn igniting double digit gains for property prices (base case).</p>
</body></html>

As money growth scaled fresh cycle highs of 12.4 per cent in November, credit growth continued to slump to new cycle lows of just 1.7 per cent. 

pwargent

Credit growth slumps to new cycle lows: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div>One of the occupational hazards of middle age is that from the mouths of babes can spout seemingly simple questions which are devilishly difficult to answer. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This troublesome issue was highlighted in a wittily observed <em>Bigpond</em> advert a decade or so ago, in which a hapless father answers to his curious son that the Great Wall of China was built by "Emperor Nasi Goreng...to keep the rabbits out."</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>The difficulty in answering an apparently straightforward question such as "how much money is there?" is twofold. Firstly, this is because the answer depends on what you mean by "money". And secondly since the money supply is a moving target, by the time you have scraped together a coherent answer more money will inevitably have been created. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">How much money is there?</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>For those of us with bank accounts today, generally we don't come in to direct physical contact with most of our money. Instead, we just see a number on a screen which changes daily.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The latest figures from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) showed that the total there is more than $65 billion of currency and $250 billion of current deposits - for a total of just over $315 billion which is represented by the green line in the chart below and known as the "M1" measure of the money supply in circulation.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's an arresting thought that in the years since I was born there is more than 30 times more M1 money knocking around in Australian circulation.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/23/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/23/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>Of course, as the above chart shows, the green line is only a small and increasingly insignificant part of the money supply, partly because today most of us use alternative forms of payment, including credit cards and EFTPOS.</span><br><br><span>The red line in the chart above (known as "M3") - which includes term deposits, certificates of deposit, and various other deposits from building societies and credit unions with banks - totals well over $1.8 trillion, the dollar value of M3 money in circulation having increased by more than 45 times over the same time period.</span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/23/A1-1.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/11/23/A1-1.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Adding the green shaded areas in the graphic above (currency and current deposits, or "M1") to the blue shaded areas (the aforementioned other deposits) gets us to "M3", while there is a broader measure of money still, which funnily enough is known as "broad money" - it includes certain other borrowings denoted by the red shaded area.<br><br>All up the money supply comprises $1.83 trillion of broad money in circulation.</div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Boiling frogs</span></strong><br><br><div>One thing that we all learn in childhood is that if something that a lot of people want is scarce, then it tends to go up in value. Unfortunately, however, the supply of money has been anything but scarce. </div>
<div>
<br>While 6.3% growth in M3 money over the past 12 months (following on from 8% in the preceding year) may not sound like all that much, due to the power of compounding these cumulative increases in the money supply have snowballed into an enormous expansion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This, of course, is why folk have tended not to leave large sums of money in their bank accounts earning low returns for too long, and often instead aim to invest in inflation-busting businesses, "hard assets" with intrinsic value such as gold and silver, or well-located residential property with a high land value component. </div>
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<div>Over time we expect the price of quality assets in high demand to appreciate, while the value of any associated debt is surprisngly quickly inflated away. Only one decade ago the broadest monetary aggregate ("broad money") showed $784 billion of money supply in circulation, an amount which has comfortably doubled and then some to $1.83 trillion today.<br><br>Summarily there is well over double the amount of money chasing a limited supply of desirable assets. These figures are in themselves powerful enough, but in truth even the money supply in circulation represents only one part of the tale.</div>
<div> </div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Credit where it's due</span></strong><br><br><div>The other part of the story is that of "credit", being loans, advances and bills discounted to the private sector (but excluding loans made to other financial intermediaries).<br><br>Note in the chart below the massive surge in credit growth following the deregulation of the financial system in 1983 which lasted all the way through until the early 1990s "recession we had to have".</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/11/23/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div><img src="/images/2015/11/23/A3.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<div>
<div>While there is not necessarily a link between the expansion of the broad money supply and growth in credit, the data over the long run suggests that a relationship between the two clearly exists, albeit a complex one.</div>
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<div>As explained by a Bank of England research paper last year, the way in which most money is created in a modern economy is through banks making loans. When a bank creates a loan, it also creates a deposit in the borrower's bank account (and in turn it follows that if a bank lends me money to buy your house, then that after the settlement you will have more money in the form of a deposit).</div>
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<div>Thus, contrary to what you might intuitively expect, deposits are not created by households saving income, but by banks creating money through loans, although of course there is ultimately a speed limit as to how much banks can lend.</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/11/20/A7.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div><img src="/images/2015/11/20/A7.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<div>
<div>The above chart shows what has happened to the amount of "narrow credit" (a measure which excludes securitisations) sloshing around Australia since 1976, which is to say that it has expanded at an even more furious pace from $36 billion to nearly $2.4 trillion, thereby increasing by an astonishing factor of more than 66 times. </div>
<br><div>While back in the year I was born housing accounted for only 24% of ourstanding credit (refer to the red shaded areas in the chart below), today that figure has expanded to 61%, with housing credit growth continuing to outpace the growth in lending to businesses.</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/11/23/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div><img src="/images/2015/11/23/A5.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<div>
<div>There are a number of identifiable reasons for this trend, but probably the most significant of these is simply that banks love to lend against housing - for even if you default on a mortgage you cannot easily take the house with you, and in any case the land that it sits on isn't going anywhere.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There have been many predictions of falling house prices over the last decade, but a bet against housing has essentially been a bet against the above chart, which shows that over the past ten years the stock of outstanding housing credit has more than doubled, from approximately $700 billion to $1.5 trillion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Of course, the price of all residential property has not increased as a result of this flood of credit. There is no scarcity of land in many mining regions, for example, and the demand for it has been declining in recent years, resulting in spectacularly crashing prices in many cases. Outer suburban Sydney property is now correcting sharply in some instances due to similar dynamics.<br><br>It would be true to say, however, that suburban land values in capital cites have generally been increasing strongly over time.</div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The outlook for credit growth</span></strong></div>
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<div>Onthe subject of speed limits, the regulatory body APRA recently decreed that it would like to see lenders growing their investor mortgage books at a pace of no faster than 10 per cent per annum, and for this reason we can expect to see banks instead pushing products in their largest and most profitable market sector, being owner-occupier housing credit.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The private sector credit figures arguably represent one of the more significant indicators of what is happening in the domestic economy, and for this reason I analyse the data on this blog at the end of each calendar month. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As I looked at in more detail at the end of last month the series showed that while commodity prices may be tanking over the year to September annual business credit growth moved up to a 79 month high of 6.3%, while housing credit growth had also accelerated to a 60 month high of 7.5%.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Now sure, 7.5% is certainly a lower level of growth for housing credit than we have seen in cycles past - mainly because we are starting from a higher base - yet if sustained it would be enough to more than double the stock of outstanding housing credit to beyond $3 trillion within the next decade, which is food for thought (gulp).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Whether or not banks can continue to expand owner-occupier credit growth will be one of the key housing market narratives to watch over through 2016. I'll analyse all the key figures here, of course. </div>
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<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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