<p>Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.</p>

<p>At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.</p>

<p>Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.</p>

<p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FH_1EzB-1vs?si=XScVlP1ERsTDJoME" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p>

<p>"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.</p>

<p>Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.</p>

<p>“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.</p>

<p>He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]</p>

<p>After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.</p>

<p>"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."</p>

<p>Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.</p>

<p>"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]</p>

<p>Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.</p>

<p>"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."</p>

<p>For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.</p>

<p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tsioMLcnjas?si=zq-ys3JuWpfa5hFv" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p>

<p>The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.</p>

<p>"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."</p>

<p>As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.</p>

<p>"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.</p>

<p>"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]</p>

<p>Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.</p>

<p>"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."</p>

<p>That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.</p>

<p>"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]</p>

<p>Aimee says one moment stood out.</p>

<p>"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."</p>

<p>The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.</p>

<p>Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]</p>

<p>ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]</p>

<p>For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.</p>

<p>"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."</p>

<p>For Aimee, the change is measured in time.</p>

<p>“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]</p>

<p>Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.</p>

<p>ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]</p>


Joel Robinson

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

<p>Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.</p>

<p>Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.</p>

<p>"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.</p>

<p>"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372549]</p>

<p>Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.</p>

<p>"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.</p>

<p>The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=314259]</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.</p>

<p>According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.</p>

<p>Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372550]</p>

<p>Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.</p>

<p>The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.</p>

<p>The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.</p>

<p>"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."</p>

<p>The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.</p>

<p>With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4661]</p>


Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

<p>Downsizer-focused apartment development Kooyongkoot in Hawthorn has been recognised at the 2026 Better Future Melbourne Design Awards, taking home Gold and Silver awards in two categories.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a>, currently being delivered by developer PQD and designed by Cera Stribley, received Gold in the Interior Design – Proposed category and Silver in the Architecture – Proposed category.</p>

<p>The dual recognition reflects the design approach behind the boutique development on prestigious Kooyongkoot Road, where the focus has been on creating homes for downsizers seeking the space, quality and functionality of a detached house within a low-rise apartment building.</p>

<p>Rather than maximising apartment numbers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pqd">PQD</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> limited the development to just 18 residences, allowing for larger floorplans, greater privacy, generous landscaping and expansive communal spaces.&nbsp;The majority of the apartments also benefit from corner aspects, allowing for dual sources of natural light.</p>

<p>Now around 70 per cent complete and on track for completion in November 2026, Kooyongkoot will comprise a mix of garden residences, ter​race apartments, sub-penthouses, and is crowned by two half-floor penthouses with direct lift access and private rooftop terraces.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355297]</p>

<p>The Silver Award for Architecture recognised the way the building responds to its prominent corner position at the ent​rance to Hawthorn's Scotch Hill precinct, one of Melbourne's most established residential neighbourhoods.</p>

<p>Rather than competing with the grand homes that line Kooyongkoot Road, the architectural approach focused on restraint and longevity, using curved brickwork, generous landscaping and carefully considered proportions to integrate with the existing streetscape.</p>

<p>"The form feels fluid and timeless, as though shaped by the landscape itself – architecture that belongs, rather than competes," said Chris Stribley, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Cera Stribley.</p>

<p>The judging submission also highlighted practical innovations throughout the building, including lift cores servicing only nine homes each, a central landscaped lightcourt designed to bring daylight and ventilation into the building, and fully enclosed private storage rooms with lighting, power and shelving to better accommodate residents transitioning from larger family homes.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355293]</p>

<p>The Gold Award for Interior Design recognised the project's focus on long-term liveability rather than display-home aesthetics.</p>

<p>According to the awards submission, the interiors were designed from the inside out, prioritising how homes would function over decades of daily use through generous proportions, practical storage, durable natural materials and flexible layouts.</p>

<p>The specification includes natural stone throughout, upgraded acoustic glazing, V-ZUG appliances and fully enclosed storage rooms, alongside an amenity offering focused on wellness, entertainment and everyday convenience.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a gym and yoga studio, a wellness centre featuring traditional and infrared saunas, a cold therapy shower and treatment room, as well as a residents' lounge and golf simulator/cinema room for entertainment.&nbsp;Kooyongkoot has also considered the everyday convenience of its residents by offering a private carwash and pet wash facilities on site as well as dedicated parcel lockers and oversized fully enclosed storage rooms.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355303]</p>

<p>The project's attention to detail has already resonated with buyers. Earlier this year, Kooyongkoot recorded one of Boroondara's highest apartment sales when an $8 million penthouse was purchased by a Melbourne CEO downsizing from a nearby family home.</p>

<p>"Every detail feels deliberate, from the overall design down to the smallest touches," the purchaser said.</p>

<p>"The level of quality and refinement is exceptional, but what really sold it was how liveable it felt... It felt like a place where everything had been considered, not just a luxury building."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]</p>

<p>Sustainability also formed a key part of both award submissions. Kooyongkoot is targeting a minimum 7.5-star NatHERS rating across all residences, supported by passive design principles, high-performance glazing, EV charging infrastructure, water reuse systems and a wellness model focused on lower-energy dry facilities rather than pools and large wet areas.</p>

<p>Located within walking distance of Scotch College, Methodist Ladies' College, Koo​yong Lawn Tennis Club, Aubur​n Village and Camberwell Junction, Kooyongkoot continues to target owner-occupiers looking to remain in Melbourne's inner east without compromising on space or quality. A limited selection of two, three and four-bedroom residences remains available, with prices starting from $1.9 million.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]</p>


Kooyongkoot wins Gold and Silver at Better Future Melbourne Design Awards

<p>New apartment supply has become increasingly constrained across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parramatta-nsw-2150">Parramatta</a> in recent years, with fewer projects progressing through to completion as development conditions have become more challenging.</p>

<p>It makes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/novm">NOVM</a>'s 2021-completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/the-lennox-parramatta-12-phillip-street-parramatta-nsw-2150">The Lennox</a> one of the most recently completed residential towers on the Parramatta River, and among the newest apartment developments in Sydney's second CBD.</p>

<p>With the project largely completed before the sharp escalation in construction costs and inflation following the pandemic, The Lennox is now offering pricing that would be difficult to replicate in a comparable new development in Parramatta today, or across much of Western Sydney.</p>

<p>The majority of the 413 apartments at The Lennox sold before and shortly after completion. A limited release of the remaining apartments has recently been brought to market by capital partner <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a>, with entry-level pricing from $700,000 and two-bedroom apartments available from under $1 million.</p>

<p>Rising above the Parramatta River at 12 Phillip Street, The Lennox comprises one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, appealing to first home buyers, young professionals, families, downsizers and interstate investors seeking a completed apartment in one of Australia's fastest-growing economic centres.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=372394]</p>

<p>Rather than positioning Parramatta as an alternative to Sydney's CBD, Equitifund believes the city has reached a point where it stands on its own merits.</p>

<p>"Parramatta is no longer simply an alternative to Sydney CBD, it's becoming a destination in its own right," Equitifund Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said.</p>

<p>"The Lennox captures that evolution with a level of quality and amenity that's difficult to match at its price point."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=953]</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/marchese-partners">Marchese Partners</a>, the tower responds directly to its riverfront setting through expansive glazing and open-plan layouts that maximise views across the Parramatta River and city skyline. Interiors feature engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, stainless steel appliances and floor-to-ceiling glazing, while generous balconies extend the living spaces outdoors.</p>

<p>Marchese Partners says the project was conceived to balance high-quality apartment living with practical, long-term functionality, pairing larger, efficient floorplans with amenities more commonly associated with five-star hotels.</p>

<p>That emphasis continues through the resident facilities, which include a 20-metre rooftop swimming pool, fully equipped gym and wellness spaces, full-time concierge, a residents' lounge, function room, private lifts, secure basement parking and rooftop communal areas overlooking the Parramatta River. Ground-floor boardwalk retail and dining further activate the riverfront and integrate the building into the surrounding public realm.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=925]</p>

<p>Australian housing and finance group Equitifund has secured the remaining apartments, believing there are few completed apartment opportunities in Parramatta that offer the same combination of location, amenity and pricing.</p>

<p>Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett says buyers are increasingly recognising that premium apartment living no longer needs to come with Sydney CBD pricing.</p>

<p>"The Lennox is where aspirational living becomes attainable," Hamblett said.</p>

<p>"Wake to river and mountain views, step into Sydney's Second CBD, and arrive home to resort-calibre amenities, all without the harbour price tag."</p>

<p>Hamblett says owner-occupiers are also attracted by the convenience of having Westfield Parramatta, Church Street's dining precinct, Parramatta Park, Riverside Theatres, Western Sydney University and major transport connections all within walking distance.</p>

<p>"At The Lennox, lifestyle is not an afterthought, it is the foundation."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=5374]</p>

<p>The Lennox places residents within walking distance of Parramatta Square, Westfield Parramatta, Church Street Eat Street, Parramatta Station, the ferry wharf, Light Rail, the future Sydney Metro West, Parramatta Park and CommBank Stadium, reinforcing Parramatta's position as one of Australia's most connected metropolitan centres outside Sydney's CBD.</p>

<p>Equitifund says buyers visiting the display suite consistently comment on the quality of the finishes, generous floorplans, river and skyline views, and the walkability of the location. The project has attracted a broad mix of local professionals, upsizers, downsizers, buyers relocating from Sydney's inner suburbs and interstate investors seeking long-term growth opportunities.</p>

<p>That demand aligns with Parramatta's continued evolution as an economic powerhouse. Equitifund Research and Market Insights specialist John Bekiaris says sustained population growth, infrastructure investment and expanding employment opportunities continue to support long-term housing demand across the city.</p>

<p>"Parramatta has evolved from a satellite city into one of Australia's most important economic centres. Population growth, infrastructure investment and employment are all supporting sustained long-term housing demand."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5743]</p>


The apartment price gap drawing Sydney buyers west

<p>A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.</p>

<p>The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.</p>

<p>The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.</p>

<p>The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.</p>

<p>Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.</p>

<p>"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.</p>

<p>"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."</p>

<p><img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" /></p>

<p>Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.</p>

<p>Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.</p>

<p>Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.</p>

<p>"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.</p>

<p>"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."</p>

<p>Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.</p>

<p>Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.</p>


Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

Coronavirus

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>More carnage overnight with US stocks down another -10 per cent again in early trade to smash into the circuit breakers, with the Dow Jones shedding -36 per cent in less than a month, before a late rally.</p>
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<p>The oil price (WTI) was down at nearly $20 at one stage, before a bouncing to $22, nestling in at the lowest level since the early 2000s...so there are some value plays emerging there.</p>
<p>But overall, cash is king at the moment while stock market valuations continue to mean revert.</p>
<p>This risks sounding like a broken record, but it bears repeating that overall US stocks are still far too expensive given the outlook, and could yet fall another -30 per cent even from here (if things got really bad they could go much lower).</p>
<p> </p>
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<span id="goog_1039971940"></span><br><div><em>Source: Shiller PE</em></div>
<br>Don't forget that previously healthy earnings are about to be decimated, with JPM forecasting US GDP to shrink by 4 per cent in Q1 and 14 per cent in Q2.<br><br>I can't watch another fund manager video demanding that you stay fully invested with them.<br><br>It's time to step away from the noise and remember the <a href="https://lowrateshighreturns.com/2020/03/16/applying-the-8-timeless-principles-in-a-bear-market/" target="_blank">8 timeless principles</a>!<br><br>The <a href="https://lowrateshighreturns.com/2020/01/04/maximising-your-long-term-wealth-with-the-kelly-criterion/" target="_blank">Kelly criterion</a> demands that you keep cash aside and live to fight another day - especially when markets are as overvalued as they have been - as better opportunities will always come around in the future.<br><br>Remember Rule #1: don't lose money.<br><br>The Aussie market stock index may catch a bid after a European stimulus announcement this morning.<br><br>This is Lagarde's own 'whatever it takes' moment, but the ECB promising no limits to its commitment to the Euro, and another massive asset purchase programme.<br><br>Still on the balance of probabilities the Aussie index increasingly looks likely to hit late 2009 levels this week in the 4,800s range this month.<br><br>This is a swift and brutal lesson in the importance of <a href="https://lowrateshighreturns.com/2019/12/29/the-magic-of-rebalancing/" target="_blank">rebalancing</a> and keeping cash aside for future opportunities arising, with a decade of price gains erased in about 20 trades.<br><br>Buy and hold at all times has been mistaken at times as a panacea or even a religion, but it's not; you need and do whatever it takes to keep yourself around to capitalise on the opportunities.<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong><strong>'Whatever it takes' moment</strong>
<p> </p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: line-through;">A historic</span> <span style="text-decoration: line-through;">An historic</span> A momentous day ahead for Australian financial markets.</p>
<p>The Reserve Bank is set to make a landmark announcement at 2.30pm Sydney time, with Governor Lowe lined up to speak thereafter at 4pm.</p>
<p>Lowe will likely discuss an emergency cut in the official cash rate to 0.25 per cent, central bank purchases of government bonds, the ongoing conducting of repo operations, and other measures to ensure that credit continues to flow to households and businesses. </p>
<p>Global cases of the coronavirus continue to increase at this stage, suggesting that a serious disruption to the global economy lies squarely ahead, although <em>known</em> cases in Australia remain relatively low at this stage. </p>
<p> </p>
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<p>Daily new cases hit fresh highs yesterday (the February 12 spike was a data collation or measurement issue).</p>
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<br>The biggest surge in cases lately has been in Italy, with 35,713 cases and 2,978 deaths recorded to date.<br><br><strong>Recession ahead</strong><br><br>Major bank economists see the Aussie unemployment rate rising to 7 to 8 per cent (not that you can really forecast in the present environment), while the government's initial stimulus package probably isn't enough to save the economy from printing negative growth for both the first and the second quarter of the year.  
<p>This would lock in Australia's first recession in three decades. </p>
<p>Recent years been characterised by the Reserve Bank 'leaning against' asset prices and continually undershooting the inflation target, with persistently slow growth in wages and living standards.</p>
<p>Nobody could've predicted the great trifecta of drought, bushfires, and a global pandemic, of course, but the economy was already running well below potential before these shocks. </p>
<p>At this stage all we have is mostly anecdotes about the likely state of the economy, but so many of them reflect sharp drops in revenue, income, commissions, and profits, that this is no time for half measures.</p>
<p>Markets will be looking for a 'whatever it takes' pledge and from Lowe, and the use of unlimited monetary ammunition until things stabilise.<br><br>Anything less than that will be brushed aside in the savage market conditions.<br><br>From the government's perspective infrastructure programs and tax cuts aren't going to cut it.<br><br>What's needed is putting cash into the hands of households and small businesses today...to prevent the R from becoming a D.<br><br>They'll write books about all this next year; it's been a momentous month. </p>
<p><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Infrastructure programs and tax cuts won't be enough: Pete Wargent

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<p>Off-the-plan buyers are understandably looking past the Coronavirus crisis.</p>
<p>The continued construction at apartment project work sites will bring on their completion close to their intended schedules.</p>
<p>It is one of the telling achievements of this time of pandemic.</p>
<p>Off the plan buyer interest continues too, abeit at reduced levels.</p>
<p>But the use of v<span>irtual property technology </span>has been key in off-the-plan projects enabling prospective buyers to see what their acquisition will provide.</p>
<p><span>With online tools like e-contracts, sales are being done.</span></p>
<p><span>Every day sales agents are also seeing potential buyers in their display suites, but digital tools are </span>assisting in a big way.</p>
<p>The sector’s embrace of digital tools, such as virtual inspections, amazing graphics and 3D, means buyers are able to see past the current uncertainty and make long-term decisions.</p>
<div id="outstream_holder_news">
<p>Customisation is an important offering these days.</p>
<p>Not only can buyers see what they are set to get upfront, they can also make selective changes to the floor plans so the property better suits their needs.</p>
<p>Some buyers may pick up two apartments and amalgamate them into a large three-bedroom apartment.</p>
<p>Others may turn a two-bedroom unit into a large one-bedroom apartment.</p>
<p>Most developers can offer buyers choices of finishes and a variety of upgrades.</p>
<p>A serious foodie might want the dream kitchen with the best appliances, stone bench tops and a pantry.</p>
<p>An asthmatic would probably opt for a timber or stone floor rather than carpet installation.</p>
<p>The current isolation will likely have long-lasting impact on the apartment design. Maybe it will see the installation of better functioning balconies. Some that are bigger, others that offer a Juliet-style garden patio.</p>
<p>Separate rooms being proposed rather than just open plan.</p>
<p>A real study - collaquallily known as Zoom rooms - not just a study nook in the hallway to provide picture-perfect, <span>acoustically sound</span> video conferencing opportunities.</p>
<p>Developers in their own isolation will be rethinking the ideal apartment interior.</p>
<p>Expect more inner city apartments that allow pets as they provide joy for their owners who can't all seek out<span> a sea or tree change.</span></p>
<p>Trendy architects are releasing that the apartment blocks of the 1920s got it right.  </p>
<p><span>When buying off the plan, buyers must rely on the reputation, honesty and goodwill of the developer which is why it's crucial to research the developer, their financial strength and capacity to deliver rectification after issues arises.</span></p>
<p><span>The economy ahead is going to remain challenging for the property industry, with <span>the risk of buying in a poor growth </span>markets, so buyers need to be prepared to withstand bumps along the way.</span></p>
<p><span>Especially since <span>many who purchased off-the-plan a few years ago are now going to have issues, perhaps given loss of income, along with the prospect of valuations coming in on completion at below contract price.</span></span></p>
<p><span>Ofcourse the apartment construction industry had hopes of seeing restored buyer confidence after the startling exposures during 2019 of neglectful building practices with t</span>he cracking at the Opal Tower high-rise just the tip of the industry poor practice.</p>
<p>Apartment markets across Sydney and NSW had reached new heights last year with record residential prices highlighted by a $100 million penthouse sale at Barangaroo.</p>
<p><span>While the pullback by buyers has taken momentum out of the market, and we could see some price falls amid a weakened rental market, the web traffic suggests buyer interest remains strong.</span></p>
<p><span><em>This article first appeared in </em>The Daily Telegraph<br></span></p>
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Off-the-plan buyers looking past Coronavirus crisis

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">On Tuesday (24 March) I will be <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/events/" target="_blank">hosting a lunchtime webinar</a> in which I will discuss the impact of the coronavirus on real estate with Rich Harvey of propertybuyer.</span> </p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">We’ve been inundated with registrations and it will the most popular webinar ever hosted by Hotspotting. Not surprisingly, with the virus impact dominating news media, people have an urgent interest in how this will play out for real estate.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The virus impact is creating volatile share markets but I expect the outcomes for property markets to be quite positive by comparison.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">At times of extreme uncertainty and volatility, Australians tend to retreat to the solidity and relative safety of bricks and mortar.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">We saw that the last time there was a global crisis impacting on our economy and causing the Federal Government and the Reserve Bank to take special action – and that was in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">At that time we were inundated with economists and others seeking their 15 minutes of fame by forecasting a collapse in housing values. Academic Steve Keen famously predicted that our property values would drop at least 40% in 2009. If he’d been right, it would have been an unprecedented demise of house prices, not only in Australia but anywhere in the world.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">And Keen was not alone. At that time, and in subsequent years, there was a seemingly never-ending line-up of doomsday forecasters for Australian real estate.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">One American spruiker, seeking to drum up publicity for an Australian seminar tour, claimed that house values would drop 60% and that land values would fall 90%.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Renowned doomsday ranter Harry S Dent has claimed our property values were on the point of collapse on at least three separate visits to Australia over the past decade.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Keen, Dent and all the other forecasters have one thing in common: they were all proven spectacularly wrong, every time.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">In 2009, at a time when Keen predicted a 40% drop in Australian property values, house values rose 13.6% - that’s the weighted average increase across the eight state and territory capital cities in calendar 2009, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Every capital city except Adelaide recorded a double-digit rise in house prices in 2009.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">And in 2010 property values rose another 6%, according to the ABS, with all capital cities recording some level of growth, except Perth.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">One of the messages we received from those times, and from other periods when share markets have over-reacted to situations in the global economy, is that the Australian property market does not follow the lead of the share market.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">In fact, often it does the opposite.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">One of the factors that will keep residential real estate solid amid the virus crisis is the general shortage of homes in Australia, amid times of strong demand from owner-occupier buyers, including first-home buyers.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">There was relatively little construction of new dwellings in 2019. Vacancies across Australia are very low in most locations and listings of properties for sale remain well down on the levels of recent years.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">One measure showing the general shortage of homes is the vacancy rate figures published each month by SQM Research.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Their latest report shows that, for the first time in many years, every one of the eight state and territory capital cities has a vacancy rate below 3%.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">In recent years both Perth, Brisbane and Darwin have had quite high vacancy rates and Sydney recently also had a vacancy rate above 3%. But now Perth is down to 2%, Brisbane is 2.2% and Darwin has dropped steadily lately and is now 2.7%. Sydney’s rate has also fallen and it’s now 2.9%.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Hobart, Canberra and Adelaide all have vacancy rates around 1%, which means their rental markets are very tight. Melbourne has fallen lately and well as its vacancy rate is now just 1.9%.</span> </p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">So four of the capital cities are below 2% and all of them are lower than 3%.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">With availability of rental properties so low, we’re seeing rents rising in most of the capital cities.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">If vacancies are tight and rents are rising, prices are likely to heading north as well – and that’s certainly the case at the moment.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The price report published by CoreLogic earlier this month showed prices had risen in the previous three months pretty much everywhere in Australia – in all eight capital cities and in all seven state regional jurisdictions.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The SQM Research figures published on 17 March showed strong growth in our largest cities, with Sydney up 11%, Melbourne 9% and Brisbane around 7%.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">But Hobart still leads, according to these figures, with house prices 14% higher than a year ago.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">And there were also moderate rises in cities like Canberra and Adelaide.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">So, overall, the data shows that our property markets are very strong – and well placed to handle whatever outcomes arise from the virus crisis.</span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">T<em>erry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au</em></span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s2"><a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au"><em>ryder@hotspotting.com.au</em></a></span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s1"><em>twitter.com/hotspotting</em></span></p>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Coronavirus, a threat or opportunity for the housing market? Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="post-title entry-title">Globally there are now more than 657,000 cases of the Coronavirus, and more than 30,400 deaths.<br><br></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HM41pHmKAsY/Xn7wR2xMvLI/AAAAAAAA08U/bG7s8MQo5zkSOQxZJbwM7OzigYI8UDjUQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/LOG.jpg" width="640" height="450" data-original-height="569" data-original-width="806"></div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><br>On a global basis new cases continue to climb to 65,000 per day and rising.<br><br></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-R6pcDJYkWbQ/Xn7wokBLYZI/AAAAAAAA08g/VMdwPR0gQL4wgpDxU9IL9VUU8mYRr9uaACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/C2.jpg" width="640" height="344" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="911"></div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"> </p>
<div>With the exponential increase continuing, it's only a matter of time before total global known cases ascend to 1 million and beyond. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>On the positive side of the ledger, China appears to have all but eliminated new cases, and a number of other countries appear to have arrested the virus. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Germany now has more than 58,000 cases, but its curve does now appear to be flattening.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Tragically, Italy has seen more than 92,000 cases and 10,000 deaths, but with luck here too the exponential growth may soon be curtailed. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Spain's figures still look nasty, but the curve is gradually flattening. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Increasingly the biggest disaster of all looks as though it might be in the US, where cases have exploded to 120,000 with little sign of any promising progress to date.</div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><strong>Australia shutdown</strong><br><strong><br></strong>How about in Australia?</p>
<div>Today, new known cases increased by 460, taking total known cases to 3,640, with 14 deaths to date (mainly over those aged in their 70s or older). </div>
<div> </div>
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<p class="post-title entry-title"> </p>
<div>That does represent an increase from 370 new cases on March 24, which was four days earlier, but at this stage the situation doesn't appear to be deteriorating catastrophically.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Granted, a lot may change in this regard within a week or two. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>So we're by no means out of the woods yet, but for whatever reasons things do appear to be shaping up somewhat better in Australia than elsewhere.</div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-aAbsD3Y4PHw/Xn8h6M-ybsI/AAAAAAAA08w/OMN88HSHX8U2YCeIm2eZi47L7kOC-lZ7QCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV1.jpg" width="640" height="470" data-original-height="656" data-original-width="893"></div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"> </p>
<div>And that's in spite of multiple cruise ship blunders and numerous earlier examples of flagrant disregard for social distancing rules.<br><br>And, indeed, it's in spite of more widespread testing per capita in Australia than in most other countries (Korea, Germany, and Russia have held more tests than we have, but of course their respective populations are far larger than ours, at only 25 million). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Only a virologist can explain the possible reasons for this; perhaps the climate helps?</div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><strong>A 9-point plan for re-opening Australia</strong></p>
<div>This is a global pandemic with global ramifications, but ultimately the world won't end, and figuratively speaking it'll be every man for himself when it comes to the critical question of how to kick-start national economies again.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Here's a 9-point plan for how we might be able to achieve it soonest and most effectively, from the perspective of a perpetually under-qualified blogger, should the daily figures begin to improve over the next fortnight:</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>1 - Initiate a shelter-in-place order</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>States already have shelter-in-place action plans, so these should be used immediately for all non-essential workers and businesses. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Aussie economy has effective already had a coronary, so it's now imperative to get daily new cases of the Coronavirus under control as soon as humanly possible.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The sooner we can do that, the sooner we can think about re-opening. </div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><strong>2 - Wage subsidies</strong><br><br>The government has spoken much about its 'stimulus packages the equivalent of 10 per cent of GDP', but the truth is much of this has been in the form of loan facilities and other non-cash items.</p>
<div>Whether by following a similar model to Boris Johnson in the UK or through another approach using the existing transfer system, the government must announce wage subsidies for stood down workers to keep them solvent until such time that the economy can be opened for business again.<br><br>Retail workers are being stood down at an alarming rate, while hospitality and tourism is also being smashed.<br><br>But these workers can return to work soon too, provided that they can be tided over with subsidies.<br><br>Furthermore, with Treasury or RBA funding, banks may also be better served over the medium term to offer interest-only mortgage terms at an interest rate of, say, 2½ per cent to any borrowers in distress, for as long as needed (in addition to the arbitrary 6-month payment holiday terms already being promoted). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Interest-only mortgage terms with the use of an offset account can be an ideal means for families and other mortgagors to begin building up a safety buffer as get back on their feet from a financial perspective.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Rental relief measures will presumably also follow, perhaps implemented at the state level. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>These are extraordinary measures, but they're also extraordinary times.<br><br>Shutting down the economy is effectively a national disaster scenario, and it needs to be approached as such. </div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><strong>3 - Set up a COVID-10 Delivery Unit</strong></p>
<div>Create a dedicated COVID-19 Delivery Unit to purchase, import, manufacture, or find any other ways to both stockpile and circulate facemasks, surgical masks, respiratory equipment, ventilators, gowns, protective gear, and treatment drugs, and prepare as many ICU beds as practicable around the country. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Even <em>if</em> the virus gets under control in the short term, there could yet be a second, third, and fourth wave, so it's better to go hard here rather than die wondering (for want of a better phrase). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>If there's available funding for testing and research into vaccines, cures, and effective treatments, then implement that too. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>4 - Fund a COVID-19 Testing and Tracing Unit</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Australia must acquire millions of testing kits, and put in place widespread and rigorous testing and tracing regime, with an enforceable action plan for quarantining and treating those with symptoms, and tracing the recent contacts of any known infected persons. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>5 - Government messaging</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Testing and tracing will likely need to continue long after the curve of new cases is flattened, and to this end government messaging should encourage Aussies to keep a daily journal of their movements, and a daily record of folks they may have had close contact with each day (this is a suggestion I read about at the excellent <em>Calculated Risk</em>, and as usual it's a very thoughtful one). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>One of the best-known finance authors once reportedly said that people need to hear simple messages over and over again before they truly sink in...a point with which I concur.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Therefore, appropriate messaging needs to be hammered home repeatedly on social distancing, the wearing of facemasks, washing hands, sanitising, hygiene, avoiding touching objects unnecessarily, and a raft of other key points. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The wearing of facemasks has, to my knowledge, normally only been common practice amongst Aussies of Asian origin, but common sense says we should all consider adopting the practice (and maybe gloves too).</div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><strong>6 - Re-open local economies with few cases</strong></p>
<div>The government faces the nigh on impossible task of balancing the public's health against the human and economic cost of keeping businesses closed.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Take the example of the capital city of Darwin.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Northern Territory was already in recession before the COVID-19 issue surfaced, and now its borders must be closed and its businesses will be hit harder still by any restrictive measures. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Yet the entire territory has just 15 known cases of the Coronavirus to date, and only one death.</div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9gbrFTI3xpE/Xn8mfKh2aeI/AAAAAAAA084/MmkNK0vSRMoQk9SnCFIDGM8SAMP5CISAgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/C2.jpg" width="640" height="436" data-original-height="662" data-original-width="970"></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>At the appropriate point the towns and cities (and then states and territories) with the fewest cases will need to see restrictive measures lifted.<br><br>This can soon be an opportunity for Australia's regions to lead the economy forward again, which would make a pleasant change from the heavy reliance on Sydney and Melbourne of the past 7-8 years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Virus hotspots may need to remain shuttered for longer, but for towns and cities with the fewest cases the curfews and restrictive measures can be lifted soonest. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>7 - Re-open the Aussie borders, but with mandatory testing</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The capability should exist to introduce and maintain mandatory testing for all entrants into Australia on an ongoing basis. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It goes without saying that those showing symptoms will need to be quarantined and appropriately treated. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>On the one hand these measures may seem draconian, but on the other hand, what might the alternative look like? </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Many of the cases in Australia apparently originated overseas, so airports and the border are evidently a high risk area. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>8 - Allow businesses to re-open</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>As daily new known cases begin to decline, allow businesses and trading to re-open, but with social distancing still to be practised to the extent possible.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Businesses should be encouraged to allow staff to work from home where practicable, and group meetings discouraged where possible.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Moreover, an over-arching rule of common sense must apply. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>9 - An ongoing fight</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's not yet entirely clear whether re-infection is possible, or whether there will be second and third waves of the virus in those locations where cases of the virus have initially been controlled. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Therefore, we must remain vigilant well beyond the point that the economy is up and humming again.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>A balancing act</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>There is, of course, no 'right' way to do these things. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Every day that companies or self-employed workers are closed for business inflicts more pain, so there are many challenging decisions to be made in real time by those in power to balance the potential risks versus respective health and economic costs. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Only in hindsight will experts know what could or should have been done with more certainty, but this 9-point plan is what's swirling around my head tonight.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>In short: </strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>- Issue shelter-in-place orders until the curve of new cases is flattened;</div>
<div> </div>
<div>- Go hard, fast, and early to wage subsidies for workers and cash payments for businesses, with further mortgage and rental relief packages to follow;</div>
<div> </div>
<div>- Build up a war chest of medical supplies, and introduce a nationwide testing, tracing, and quarantining program;</div>
<div> </div>
<div>- Hammer home the 'best practice' messaging, and encourage record-keeping with respect to personal movements and contact with others;</div>
<div> </div>
<div>- As daily new cases begin to decline, re-open locations and economies with the fewest known Coronavirus cases first, and gradually roll this re-opening out nationwide; and </div>
<div> </div>
<div>- Enforce mandatory testing for all entrants to Australia, with quarantine as required.</div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

A 9-point plan for re-opening Australia: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>There’s a startling inconsistency in Australian news media when it comes to the treatment of real estate prices.</p>
<p>When actual data is published, showing what actually happened with house prices, media will savage the figures (if they are positive, as they were in March and April) and dismiss them as irrelevant or misleading. That’s journalism, right? Journalists are supposed to challenge things.</p>
<p>But if someone makes a forecast about prices which is negative, news media will accept that without question. And, worse, media will turn this speculation into a fact. It’s not a case of “prices are forecast to fall”; it’s presented as “prices will fall”.</p>
<p>This inconsistency in the approach of media speaks volumes about the mentality of journalists –</p>
<p>- If it’s a positive, attack it;</p>
<p>- If it’s a negative, make love to it.</p>
<p>Data from both CoreLogic and SQM Research showed prices resisted the impacts of virus shutdown in both March and April, with prices rising to some degree in most markets around the nation. We’re three months into the covid-19 schemozzle and there’s still no evidence of the price collapse predicted by the usual suspects.</p>
<p>But this was broadly challenged by news media as being misleading and untenable. Most headlines early in May, reporting the April figures, were extremely negative. One media outlet managed to turn all that solid price data into this headline: “Real Estate Markets Collapse.</p>
<p>It’s essentially about click-bait and the truth is optional – but, in other walks of life, if someone uses that level of deception and dishonesty to try to make money, they end up being charged with serious offences and in some cases go to jail.</p>
<p>Contrast all that with the treatment in the past week of forecasts for house prices by some of the big banks. These have been quite negative and news media has had a field day with those reports: no one has questioned or challenged them at all.</p>
<p>And they should be challenged, because the track records of bank economists in forecasting anything, but in particular real estate prices, are notoriously bad.</p>
<p>(As an aside, observe the record of Bill Evans, chief economist for Westpac, in predicting interest rates – he will make a forecast about likely movements in the next 12 months, with lots of publicity, but in perhaps two months’ time will issue a new, different, forecast. This begs the question: what was the value of your forecast two months ago, which you are now suggesting is wrong?)</p>
<p>If ever something deserved to be attacked by journalists, it’s the forecasts of bank economists about the housing market. Collectively, they have a very low level of credibility.</p>
<p>Let’s take National Australia Bank as a case study. The bank publishes regular forecasts about residential property prices, including the quarterly NAB Residential Property Survey reports. I’ve been reading NAB’s forecasts for many years and here’s what I know to be true – the forecasts are never correct. And I do mean never.</p>
<p>They always err on the side of pessimistic and invariably they are wrong.</p>
<p>Here’s a recent example. NAB published one of its reports in January 2019, containing forecasts for house prices for capital cities for the coming year.</p>
<p>Here what they predicted: capital cities on average would record a 3.8% fall in house prices in 2019. Sydney would drop 5.6%, Melbourne would decline 7.0%, Brisbane would deliver zero growth and other state capitals would deliver minimal growth.</p>
<p>News media, of course, gave this considerable fanfare and treated the forecasts as facts – i.e. Melbourne prices will fall 7% by the end of the year.</p>
<p>Here’s what actually happened, according to three major research entities which publish price statistics – and also according to NAB itself.</p>
<p>According to the latest NAB report, the capital city average for houses in 2019 was actually a rise of 2.9%, not a fall of 3.8%. The capital average for apartments was a rise of 3.4%, not the 4.3% decline that the NAB report forecast a year earlier.</p>
<p>The Melbourne result was a rise of 4.6% for houses and a rise of 6.5% for apartments, not the big declines that NAB had forecast. And in Sydney, there was a rise of 6.1% for houses and a rise of 3.4% for apartments, in contrast to the declines of 5.6% and 5.5% that the NAB report of January 2019 had forecast.</p>
<p>It’s quite a dismal failing, isn’t it, when you predict something will decline 5.6%, but it actually rises 6.1%.</p>
<p>NAB chief economist Alan Oster did not mention any of that in his recent media soundbites on his latest report. Here’s your credulity rating with me, Alan: 0</p>
<p>But the contrasts between the NAB forecasts and the eventual reality are even more stark when you look at the figures from more credible sources.</p>
<p>According to the figure from three major sources, the capital city average result for house prices in 2019 was a rise 5.5% (Domain), 2.1% (CoreLogic) and 2.9% (SQM Research).</p>
<p>The result for Sydney houses was a rise of 6.8% (Domain), 6.1% (CoreLogic) and 4.8% (SQM). Remember, NAB forecast a 5.6% decline for Sydney house prices.</p>
<p>The result for Melbourne houses was a rise of 8.7% (Domain), 4.6% (CoreLogic) and 5.7% (SQM) – not the 7.0% decline NAB had forecast.</p>
<p>There are similar contrasts with the other cities. Hobart, for example, rose 15.6% (Domain) and 11.7% (SQM), whereas the NAB report had forecast a 2019 rise of just 1.8%.</p>
<p>Without boring you with any more statistical detail, I can tell you that the NAB reports have been similarly, and consistently, wrong with their price forecasts year after year. They always lean towards negativity and real estate keeps on proving them wrong.</p>
<p>Yet, this nation’s gaggle of non-journalists has accepted their latest pessimistic outpouring without a single challenge. Its new forecasts, which are quite negative, have been celebrated in media across the country.</p>
<p>Shame on all of you for being so willing to heap further misery on Australian households without any credible justification.</p>
<p>Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au<br> ryder@hotspotting.com.au<br>twitter.com/hotspotting</p>
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House price forecasts are usually wrong: HotSpotting's Terry Ryder

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Australia is teeming with people who have questions about the impact of the virus crisis on real estate and are seeking urgent answers.</span> </p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">My webinar with buyers’ agent Rich Harvey of propertybuyer on 24 March attracted a big audience – our largest ever - and we received more questions than we could handle during the live event.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Many of those questions including some of the fundamental ones that everyone is asking: will property values decline, how long will it last, is this a good time to buy, what happens if my tenant can’t pay the rent and if I ask my lender for a mortgage holiday, will it affect my credit rating?</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Here are some of the key questions or comments, and my responses.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><strong><span class="s1"><em>Is now the time to be buying an investment property? Will there be tenants in the market?</em></span></strong></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">I think this is a good time to be looking for an investment property. There will be opportunities to buy well in the current climate. Buyers will be able to negotiate from a position of strength. Just be careful to select a location with the credentials for long-term growth. There will be tenants – vacancies are low around the nation and the various government stimulus packages will assist people who might otherwise struggle to pay their rent.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><strong><span class="s1"><em>Auction clearance rates will change now that the first wave of lock-down controls come into effect. Do you predict that the market will continue to be healthy amidst rising unemployment?</em></span></strong></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Yes, I think the market will continue to be healthy. The rise in unemployment will be temporary – if it was long-term, extending right throughout the year, it would have a material impact on markets and property prices, but I expect it to be relatively short-term. Auctions will be curtailed by the government restrictions on gatherings, but most sales do not occur via auction so that in itself will not be detrimental to property prices. Only 10-11% of sales across Australian happen through auctions. It will cause some vendors who particularly want auctions to withdraw their properties from sale, which will exacerbate the shortage of listings and put a floor under property values.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><strong><span class="s1"><em>Do you think vacancy rates will rise in the short term with unemployment increasing?</em></span></strong></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">I think there will be some increase in vacancy rates in the short-term, but mainly because owners who had been using AirBNB rather than permanent rental situations will now be seeking permanent tenants (because of the travel restrictions, which are killing the AirBNB market at the moment). Most markets should be able to absorb this, because vacancy rates are very low in most locations across Australia.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><strong><span class="s1"><em>Can you help unpack how a potential 10% unemployment rate cannot have any impact on property prices going forward?</em></span></strong></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">If we had a 10% jobless rate long-term in Australia, it would impact on property prices – but we won’t have that. We will have a short, sharp spike in unemployment but it won’t last long enough to cause a significant fall in house prices.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><em>Will this situation promote longer-term demographic shifts to more people working remotely and strengthen property growth in regional areas?</em></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">I think that is a trend anyway and has helped to drive the boom in the past 2-3 years in Regional Victoria, particularly in towns within 1-2 hours of Melbourne, and also the Central Coast just outside Sydney. The current situation will probably enhance that trend towards people working remotely and therefore making lifestyle changes. Increasingly, there are fewer and fewer reasons to be close to the CBDs of major cities.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><strong><span class="s1"><em>Do you have any perspectives on negotiating with developers during this time, especially as first home buyers.</em></span></strong></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Everything is negotiable at any time but in these turbulent times I suspect buyers will be able to negotiate favourable deals when buying new product from developers. It would be a good time to present yourself as a buyer at a time when many people will be standing back or sitting on the fence.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><strong><span class="s1"><em>Over the next few months if you find yourself unable to keep up with your loans, get on the front foot and call the credit provider early.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>This will not only relieve some pressure as you won’t be living in fear of what they might do, but it will most likely help to protect your credit file in the process.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>If the emotion is too close to home for you to liaise with the credit provider yourself, then engage a professional to do it for you. But check in early with your lenders.</em></span></strong></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">I think that is sound advice. The major lenders have made it clear that they want to help their mortgage customers, as well as businesses, because they have a strong vested interest in keeping their customers healthy. Anyone who is struggling with loan repayments should contact their lenders and work out a solution with them. The major banks are indicating that they will allow people to pause their repayments for a period of time.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><strong><span class="s1"><em>What should landlords do if a tenant advises they can’t pay their rent?</em></span></strong></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">I don’t think it’s possible to give a generalised answer to that. It needs to be handled on a case-by-case basis. But a lot of the emphasis in the various stimulus packages is on assisting people in those situations. The benefits for people out of work have been significantly increased to try to avoid situations where people can’t pay their rent. But, for any landlords who fact that situation, work with your tenants, or your property manager, to come up with a solution – perhaps by reducing the rent for a short period.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><strong><span class="s1"><em>Should I reduce the rent before the tenants ask?</em></span></strong></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">It may be a good strategy, to pre-empt any problems – perhaps offer a reduction in the rent for a short period to help get through the difficult period. It’s preferable to do that, rather than losing your tenant. I note that some landlords are doing that, according to media reports. But it needs to assessed on a case-by-case basis.</span> </p>
<p class="p1"><strong><span class="s1"><em>Should we hold on to our savings and see how low the market will go?</em></span></strong></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">That kind of strategy seldom works. It’s indicates a short-term viewpoint when real estate should be approached with long-term horizons. The other problem with that kind of approach is that it’s impossible to pinpoint the bottom of the market – the data that shows the bottom of the trough doesn’t appear until a long time after the event. A better approach is to look for good buying opportunities in areas with the credentials for long-term growth.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><strong><span class="s1"><em>What is your take on people losing their jobs who have a mortgage, will they lose their homes, if so how will they get a rental in such a tight rental market?</em></span></strong></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">One of the key factors in the response from the Federal Government and the major banks is to support people who lose their jobs and have difficulty paying the mortgage. Lenders have said they will offer mortgage holidays – e.g. suspending payments for six months. The tight rental markets are being eased, to a certain extent, by investors who previously used AirBNB now putting their properties into the permanent rental pool (because the travel restrictions are killing the AirBNB market).</span></p>
<p class="p1"><strong><span class="s1"><em>My husband is very nervous and wants me to sell our family home.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>What’s your advice on selling now.</em></span> </strong></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">No, please don’t do that. There is no need to panic to that degree. We are not going to see property values collapse and anyone who struggles to pay the mortgage during this crisis period should be able to arrange a suspension of their regular payments with their lender.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><strong><span class="s1"><em>If I were to make an opportunistic buy, what’s to say I can rent it out in a timely manner in the current environment?</em></span></strong></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">A sensible investor would, firstly, buy in a location where the vacancy rate is low (and most locations around the nation currently have low vacancies) and, secondly, speak to property managers in the local area about the prospects for renting the property you’re thinking of buying – before signing a contract.</span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s1">T<em>erry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au</em></span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s2"><a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au"><em>ryder@hotspotting.com.au</em></a></span></p>
<p class="p5"><span class="s1"><em>twitter.com/hotspotting</em></span></p>
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13 Coronavirus property questions answered by Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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<p>House prices continue to defy forecasts of dramatic decreases from the virus shutdown – and the significance of that continues to be downplayed and misreported by mainstream media.</p>
<p>It would be refreshing is journalists could simply report the facts, in an even and balanced way, rather than go to extraordinary lengths to find negatives to feature in their headlines.</p>
<p>Let’s look at the facts. Figures published on 1 May by CoreLogic show that house prices nationally recorded another small increase in April.</p>
<p>The CoreLogic figures confirmed those published a few days earlier by SQM Research, showing that most capital cities had recorded rises in the past month.</p>
<p>The CoreLogic figures indicate that six of the eight capital cities, and six of the seven regional jurisdictions, recorded some level of increase in their house price indexes during April.</p>
<p>The biggest increases for the month were recorded in Darwin and Regional Tasmania, which both rose 1.1% in April.</p>
<p>Nationally, there was a 0.2% increase in house prices during the month. It’s a very small increase - but in the circumstances any rise is remarkable.</p>
<p>And it defies media forecasts a significant decline in April.</p>
<p>A month ago, when the figures for March (showing price rises in most markets across the nation), media generally dismissed those figures as being insignificant, as they (allegedly) pre-dated the full impact of the coronavirus shutdown.</p>
<p>Most articles in early April said the March figures were irrelevant and that those for April would show the full impact of the shutdown, with significant decreases predicted. There were some very negative and quite alarmist headlines a month ago.</p>
<p>However, the CoreLogic data shows that the housing market remains resilient in the face of the considerable forces created by the economic downturn. While sales activity has dropped markedly, and rents have fallen in some cities, housing values have not dropped.</p>
<p>The price data is strong also for the three months ending 30 April. All eight capital cities recorded increases in their house price indexes, headed by a 3.4% increase in Darwin and a 3.2% rise in Sydney.</p>
<p>Six of the seven regional markets also rose in the past quarter, with Northern Territory the only exception. The regional increases were headed by a 3% uplift in Tasmania and a 2.7% rise in Victoria.</p>
<p>Nationally, there was a 2% increase in the house price index in the past three months.</p>
<p>In annual terms, house prices are up 8.3% nationally, including a 9.8% increase in the combined capital cities index.</p>
<p>Keep in mind that the first of the share market meltdowns occurred on 20 February and we are now in May. We’re 10 weeks into the virus-induced economic schemozzle and, according to usual suspects like Shane Oliver of AMP Capital, we should be seeing evidence of a dramatic drop in property values.</p>
<p>But we’re not. We’re seeing a big fall in sales activity, but the number of properties for sale has also reduced significantly, so supply and demand remains in some sort of balance in many locations. So there’s no great pressure for prices to fall.</p>
<p>All this confirms anecdotal evidence from the coal face of the property industry. I’m having lots of conversations with valuers, buyers’ agents, investment advisers and marketers of various sorts who are seeing good sales happening amid strong competition and values staying firm.</p>
<p>The number of potential buyers in the market has dropped, but the active ones are genuine buyers, with the tyre-kickers having dropped out.</p>
<p><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au</em><br><em> ryder@hotspotting.com.au</em><br><em>twitter.com/hotspotting</em></p>
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House prices defy forecasts of dramatic virus downturn: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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<p>We’re going to benefit from the shutdown imposed by the virus, in infinite ways. It may not feel like it at the moment, and I don’t disregard the pain many are going through, but Australia will look back at this crisis as a time that changed the nation for the better.</p>
<p>The discussion now is about how and when we return to normal. But the new normal will be different to the old. It has to be.</p>
<p>One of the big lessons is that we cannot continue to have so many important things made in one country – or anywhere offshore. There are things we need to make in Australia. Manufacturing is poised for a revival, with benefits in employment. This will be part of a strong economic recovery.</p>
<p>The corporate twits who thought it made sense to locate customer call centres offshore because it saved a few bucks are now reconsidering their strategies. They need to bring customer service back home and in the process they will have fewer angry and frustrated customers. And create jobs in Australia.</p>
<p>The situation has forced us to innovate and to work harder at helping our customers. Real estate has found ways to function without live auctions and open houses. We’re seeing examples of online auctions achieving sales well over the reserve price. One-on-one inspections of properties have taken us back to old service standards and getting to know buyers one-on-one. Everyone benefits.</p>
<p>Many of us have realised how much we value the simple things we took for granted, like meeting friends for a cuppa or taking the family to the beach. When the restrictions are lifted, Australians will party like they never have since the end of World War Two – not extravagantly but by going to cafes, pubs, theatres, parks and beaches. A recent survey indicates people plan to take holidays in Australia. Many of the lost jobs will come back (not all, unfortunately).</p>
<p>Some people have learned, by accident, how to save. The restrictions have stopped us going out and spending. The improvement to the bank balance has been an eye-opener. Now some of us know how to get on top of the mortgage and young adults have been shown a way to save a deposit for a first home. First-home buyers with secure jobs will be busy in the second half of the year.</p>
<p>The resources sector has remained steady in the shutdown period. Queensland locations with links to the mining industry have experienced an uplift in rental demand amid the virus crisis, with rents actually rising. China, our biggest trading partner, is projected by the IMF to experience moderate economic growth this year and a boom next year. I’m expecting a resources boom in Australia as China and other nations get ambitious about economic recovery. Real estate markets influenced by resources links may surge – but investors should proceed with caution, because these are fickle and volatile markets.</p>
<p>A more engaging trend with impacts on real estate is the one I wrote about last week. We can expect an increase in people moving from the big cities and buying in lifestyle areas within an hour or two of the city. This movement has been enhanced by technology which allows people to work remotely – and will be exacerbated by the shutdown, which has forced people to work from home.</p>
<p>Some will make it a permanent arrangement. Expect uplift in markets like the Central Coast and the Southern Highlands in NSW; Ballarat, Bendigo, the Latrobe Valley and elsewhere in Victoria; and the Sunshine Coast in Queensland.</p>
<p>As an aside, the virus has done all of us a favour by delivering a major come-uppance to the ugly bastards who run global oil businesses and regularly hold the world to ransom with their cynical manipulation of supply and prices. We’ve all saved money by needing to fill up our cars less often and paying less when we do. Will it change our habits post-shutdown? Hopefully, but probably not.</p>
<p>The virus has generally done the environment a big favour. The before-and-after shots of some of world’s big cities are a revelation, including some in Australia. There’s been a big reduction in emissions. The greatest benefit of the shutdown would be achieved if we learnt something from that. Will we? I fear we will easily slip back into old habits.</p>
<p>But, amid everything, we’ve learnt who the real heroes are and how much we underpay them. We’ve discovered that we can do without over-rated footie players and self-absorbed corporate executives, but not without under-resourced and under-appreciated nurses. Boris Johnson has learnt that more than most.</p>
<p>And we’ve seen a cultural shift in politics and business. There’s been a refreshing absence of adversarial politics. The country apparently can function without people shouting at one another in Parliament. Let’s make that a permanent change.</p>
<p>Business in many ways has sought to be part of the solution, even including the major banks. The only sectors which haven’t entered into the spirit of pulling together have been insurance and some sections of news media.</p>
<p>Who knows – maybe going out of your way to help people is actually good for business.</p>
<p>Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au <br>ryder@hotspotting.com.au<br>twitter.com/hotspotting</p>
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The future benefits of the coronavirus crisis: HotSpotting's Terry Ryder

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<div>EXPERT OBSERVER</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The coronavirus was confirmed as a global pandemic by the World Health Organisation (WHO).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The WHO noted that known cases have increased 13-fold in the past two weeks.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>All shops in Italy except for foodstores and pharmacies have been shuttered, as the mortality rate in the country has soared to an alarmingly high level.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>My Italian holiday is looking less likely by the week, which is annoying as I've been learning the language this year (what's the Italian for 'FFS' again?).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Angela Merkel announced that up to 58 million Germans, or 70 per cent on the population, could contract the illness.<br><br><strong>Policy response</strong>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>These are serious people and serious organisations, not renowned for making wild statements, so it seems inevitable that containment measures will be taken around the world, leading to a slowdown in global growth and earnings for at least the next 3-6 months.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Australian government has announced a stimulus package worth A$17 billion, which is at least a start, albeit it still doesn't sound like nearly enough.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Why politicians are still making comments about a 'measured Budget response' I'll never know (actually I do know, and it's dumb). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It wouldn't be at all surprising if we see a second round of stimulus ahead in the coming months, on top of a finally interest rate cut, and then potentially QE in the form of yield curve control.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There's little point in going over old ground, but even at this stage the Reserve Bank sounds very reluctant to take action, at a time when the feeling around the financial markets traps is that what's really needed is a 'whatever it takes' mentality and message.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Mind you, we haven't had that for the past few years, so it's unlikely to start now. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>Grizzly bear</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>I'm not normally in the business of writing daily markets commentary.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's largely a fool's errand, arguably not all that useful, and potentially quite annoying.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But since everyone else is doing it....US stocks whipsawed again and dropped 5 per cent last night to enter a bear market.<br><br>It's been the fastest bear market of all time, with the 20 per cent drop taking just 19 days from the peak. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Even after a 20 per cent correction, stocks are priced at remarkably expensive levels given that the US economy is teetering on a bust, with so many debt bombs lurking quietly beneath. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Gd2Vl5ChIfE/Xmlb_NhDpaI/AAAAAAAA0oE/-L5IQJFBlB4V0nVPubpBVlQU6S08ObcJgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CAPE.jpg" width="640" height="478" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1075"></div>
<div> </div>
<div><em>Source: Shiller</em></div>
<div> </div>
<div>No doubt investors have become accustomed to the Fed riding to the rescue, but that may not be such a wise ideas this time. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Apart from picking up a few holdings in the UK oil supermajors, I'm mostly remaining in cash.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Stock prices for BP on the FTSE are back at 1996 levels, even as the Bank of England delivered an emergency 50 basis points rate cut and a raft of stimulus measures to support business and markets (RBA take note), and as the value of its overseas earnings look set to increase. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>But generally speaking, I'm happy to sit on the sidelines through this tumultuous period, especially given that the market could halve again, even from this point. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Aussies futures are pointing to another plunge at the open, and even since February 20 the moves are beginning to damage retirement accounts materially.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But again, even the likely 25 per cent drop we'll see during today's trade only takes the market back to where it was in mid-2015. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>By no stretch of the imagination is the market 'cheap', especially given the dire outlook for earnings.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The counterpoint is that at some point the coronavirus will likely pass, and given the massive global policy easing markets could eventually snap back (which is why a sensible asset allocation policy and written investment plan is so important).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em>
</div>
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Coronavirus confirmed a global pandemic: Pete Wargent

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<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="post-title entry-title">After a relief rally, the oil price has dropped back towards new cycle lows as the Coronavirus threatens to lead to a prolonged slump in demand.</p>
<p class="post-title entry-title">A few more buying opportunities looking likely this week. </p>
<div>The price of Brent Crude is now -67.2 per cent below its January highs and we're staring at the lowest price level in 17 years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-hvDFQnnUDFc/XoEkUmFcDwI/AAAAAAAA0-g/kJsvvAY_qkA1kCAlrBxC2lwTrPX1OuK-wCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/Crude.jpg" width="640" height="318" data-original-height="798" data-original-width="1600"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Some analysts think that the oil price could hit $10/barrel over the coming months, which from my perspective would represent 'back up the truck' territory.<br><br><strong>Stage 3 rolled out</strong><br><br>There have been some more promising numbers for New Zealand and Australia on new cases of the virus.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The short, sharp shutdown looks likely to be the base case strategy to flatten the curve and buy valuable time for medical centres and hospitals.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Victoria ramped up its response to Stage Three, with spot fines of up to $1,600 for social distancing breaches, while gatherings of more than two are no longer to be allowed (excluding members of the same household).<br><br>Queenslanders now also face $1,300 spot fines for breaches. </div>
<div>
<br><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em>
</div>
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