<p>The residential transformation of St Kilda Road is set to continue into with more new apartment plans for the sought-after boulevard.</p>

<p>Wing Tai Asia has lodged plans for a major residential tower at 464-466 St Kilda Road, replacing the former VACC House with an 18-storey mixed-use development designed around a retained heritage podium and a sculpted contemporary tower.</p>

<p>The proposal, prepared under Victoria’s Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway, would deliver 325 apartments and ground-floor retail across the prominent 4,653 sqm boulevard site in Melbourne’s St Kilda Road North Precinct.</p>

<p>The project centres on the adaptive reuse of the site’s heritage-listed VACC Building, an eight-storey office designed by Bernard Evans that has occupied the address for decades. Planning documents state the development would involve “carefully dismantling and conserving off-site the original metal fabric of the podium visible from St Kilda Road,” before reinstating it as the defining frontage of the new scheme.</p>

<p>Above the restored podium, Wing Tai is proposing a curvilinear residential tower. The scheme includes 172 one-bedroom apartments, 63 two-bedroom apartments, 66 three-bedroom apartments, and 24 four-bedroom apartments, alongside two ground-floor food and beverage tenancies fronting St Kilda Road.</p>

<p>The tower has been designed with substantial articulation and variable setbacks to minimise perceived bulk and maintain view corridors along the boulevard. Urbis, which prepared the planning report, said the design “has been significantly articulated through a curvilinear design” with “an interplay with materials, façade expression and depth” to create visual separation and visual interest.</p>

<p>The proposal also includes 254 basement car spaces, landscaped pedestrian links connecting St Kilda Road and Queens Lane, and a biophilic landscape strategy featuring canopy trees, raised planters, cascading greenery and a glass oculus pool overlooking the eastern frontage.</p>

<p>Planning documents confirm the $270.1 million development will contribute 3 per cent of project costs to the Social Housing Growth Fund as part of the application process.</p>

<p>Wing Tai acquired the St Kilda Road property in 2018 alongside Abacus Property Group for $95.38 million, before later consolidating ownership of the site. The property previously served as the Victorian Automobile Chamber of Commerce headquarters for around 60 years.</p>

<p data-end="345" data-start="110">The transformation of the St Kilda Rd boulevard is already beginning to materialise, with a number of high-profile projects recently completed, launched, or approaching launch as developers continue to back the long-term appeal of the precinct.</p>

<p data-end="689" data-start="347">Among the most notable recent completions is Louise by Samuel Property Group, just off the strip on Queens Lane, the same pocket Hirsch &amp; Faigen recently launched The Queensbury. Mirvac is too on the same street with The Albertine, which is approaching completion.</p>

<p data-end="689" data-start="347">Dexus recently secured approval for its slice of St Kilda Road, while Gurner also has approved plans for the precinct.</p>


Joel Robinson

Wing Tai unveils 325-apartment St Kilda Road tower on former VACC House site

<p>Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.</p>

<p>The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.</p>

<p>The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.</p>

<p>The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" /></p>

<p>SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.</p>

<p>“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.</p>

<p>The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.</p>

<p>“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" /></p>

<p>The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.</p>

<p>Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.</p>

<p>The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.</p>

<p>COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" /></p>

<p>“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.</p>

<p>The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.</p>

<p>The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.</p>

<p>Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.</p>

<p><em>Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a></em></p>


First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.</p>

<p>The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.</p>

<p>The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" /></p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.</p>

<p>SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”</p>

<p>The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" /></p>

<p>The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.</p>

<p>A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.</p>

<p>Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" /></p>

<p>The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.</p>

<p>Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.</p>

<p>The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.</p>


First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

<p>Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."</p>

<p>Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;</p>


Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

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<p data-end="157" data-start="0">The arrival of the first piling rig officially marks the commencement of construction at SIERA’s new beachside apartment development, Exhale, in Northcliffe.</p>

<p data-end="459" data-start="159"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/exhale-surfers-paradise-8-enderley-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Exhale</a>, a glass-encased tower featuring 54 large-scale apartments at 8 Enderley Avenue, is SIERA’s third Gold Coast development. It follows the recently completed PIPIS Bilinga beachfront project, which achieved suburb-record prices, and the soon-to-be-completed Chevron Island development, Tapestry.</p>

<p data-end="459" data-start="159">[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359603]</p>

<p data-end="651" data-start="461"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/siera">SIERA</a> Founder and Managing Director Brent Thompson said the arrival of the piling rig represented a significant milestone for the development, which is scheduled for completion in late 2028.</p>

<p data-end="950" data-start="653">Over the next month, around 260 piles are expected to be installed as work progresses on the basement structure. The building is anticipated to rise above ground level early next year, before unveiling its sculptural glass curtain wall, developed in collaboration with specialist façade engineers.</p>

<p data-end="1081" data-start="952">“The façade was designed to maximise panoramic coastal views while creating a distinctive architectural identity,” Thompson said.</p>

<p data-end="1081" data-start="952">[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=355935]</p>

<p data-end="1307" data-start="1083">Designed by BDA Architecture, Exhale will comprise just 54 two- and three-bedroom residences across 26 levels, a level of low-density living rarely delivered in this beachside pocket between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach.</p>

<p data-end="1522" data-start="1309">The project has been conceived as a resident-only building, with no short-stay accommodation permitted. SIERA says the model is intended to appeal to long-term owner-occupiers rather than transient holiday demand.</p>

<p data-end="1522" data-start="1309">[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=361052]</p>

<p data-end="1714" data-start="1524">Residences have been designed with large-format layouts and expansive glazing, with most apartments featuring more than 30 metres of glass frontage to maximise natural light and ocean views.</p>

<p data-end="1945" data-start="1716">The amenity offering spans two levels and centres on wellness and lifestyle, including a heated magnesium pool, sauna, yoga and Pilates studio, gymnasium, private dining facilities, cinema lounge, and dedicated surfcraft storage.</p>

<p data-end="1945" data-start="1716">[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359607]</p>

<p data-end="2220" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="1947">More than half of the apartments have already sold. SIERA has also opened a sales gallery for Exhale at its Chevron Island commercial premises, near its Tapestry tower and the site of its second Chevron Island apartment development, which is slated to launch in early 2027.</p>
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<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112661]</p>


SIERA kicks off construction at Northcliffe tower Exhale

Coronavirus

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>More carnage overnight with US stocks down another -10 per cent again in early trade to smash into the circuit breakers, with the Dow Jones shedding -36 per cent in less than a month, before a late rally.</p>
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<p>The oil price (WTI) was down at nearly $20 at one stage, before a bouncing to $22, nestling in at the lowest level since the early 2000s...so there are some value plays emerging there.</p>
<p>But overall, cash is king at the moment while stock market valuations continue to mean revert.</p>
<p>This risks sounding like a broken record, but it bears repeating that overall US stocks are still far too expensive given the outlook, and could yet fall another -30 per cent even from here (if things got really bad they could go much lower).</p>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lq18M1eZhts/XnKhiiXFqbI/AAAAAAAA0vY/zUHAiE2ggegAqwyOYEAT9qR84VyY8a3tQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CAPE.jpg" width="640" height="308" data-original-height="526" data-original-width="1090"></div>
<span id="goog_1039971940"></span><br><div><em>Source: Shiller PE</em></div>
<br>Don't forget that previously healthy earnings are about to be decimated, with JPM forecasting US GDP to shrink by 4 per cent in Q1 and 14 per cent in Q2.<br><br>I can't watch another fund manager video demanding that you stay fully invested with them.<br><br>It's time to step away from the noise and remember the <a href="https://lowrateshighreturns.com/2020/03/16/applying-the-8-timeless-principles-in-a-bear-market/" target="_blank">8 timeless principles</a>!<br><br>The <a href="https://lowrateshighreturns.com/2020/01/04/maximising-your-long-term-wealth-with-the-kelly-criterion/" target="_blank">Kelly criterion</a> demands that you keep cash aside and live to fight another day - especially when markets are as overvalued as they have been - as better opportunities will always come around in the future.<br><br>Remember Rule #1: don't lose money.<br><br>The Aussie market stock index may catch a bid after a European stimulus announcement this morning.<br><br>This is Lagarde's own 'whatever it takes' moment, but the ECB promising no limits to its commitment to the Euro, and another massive asset purchase programme.<br><br>Still on the balance of probabilities the Aussie index increasingly looks likely to hit late 2009 levels this week in the 4,800s range this month.<br><br>This is a swift and brutal lesson in the importance of <a href="https://lowrateshighreturns.com/2019/12/29/the-magic-of-rebalancing/" target="_blank">rebalancing</a> and keeping cash aside for future opportunities arising, with a decade of price gains erased in about 20 trades.<br><br>Buy and hold at all times has been mistaken at times as a panacea or even a religion, but it's not; you need and do whatever it takes to keep yourself around to capitalise on the opportunities.<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong><strong>'Whatever it takes' moment</strong>
<p> </p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: line-through;">A historic</span> <span style="text-decoration: line-through;">An historic</span> A momentous day ahead for Australian financial markets.</p>
<p>The Reserve Bank is set to make a landmark announcement at 2.30pm Sydney time, with Governor Lowe lined up to speak thereafter at 4pm.</p>
<p>Lowe will likely discuss an emergency cut in the official cash rate to 0.25 per cent, central bank purchases of government bonds, the ongoing conducting of repo operations, and other measures to ensure that credit continues to flow to households and businesses. </p>
<p>Global cases of the coronavirus continue to increase at this stage, suggesting that a serious disruption to the global economy lies squarely ahead, although <em>known</em> cases in Australia remain relatively low at this stage. </p>
<p> </p>
<p class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PpQcwNO9df0/XnKlqpCKgHI/AAAAAAAA0vg/zHXvgYR03PYK6i4HO-HDdOhrRudmyWKYACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="503" data-original-width="828"></p>
<p>Daily new cases hit fresh highs yesterday (the February 12 spike was a data collation or measurement issue).</p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-QesSeFEsy4A/XnKs4AK_b6I/AAAAAAAA0vo/i5BTQupD2EEaQuoc-z-AD4xeoeGEq6pVACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/Cases.jpg" width="640" height="342" data-original-height="482" data-original-width="897"></div>
<br>The biggest surge in cases lately has been in Italy, with 35,713 cases and 2,978 deaths recorded to date.<br><br><strong>Recession ahead</strong><br><br>Major bank economists see the Aussie unemployment rate rising to 7 to 8 per cent (not that you can really forecast in the present environment), while the government's initial stimulus package probably isn't enough to save the economy from printing negative growth for both the first and the second quarter of the year.  
<p>This would lock in Australia's first recession in three decades. </p>
<p>Recent years been characterised by the Reserve Bank 'leaning against' asset prices and continually undershooting the inflation target, with persistently slow growth in wages and living standards.</p>
<p>Nobody could've predicted the great trifecta of drought, bushfires, and a global pandemic, of course, but the economy was already running well below potential before these shocks. </p>
<p>At this stage all we have is mostly anecdotes about the likely state of the economy, but so many of them reflect sharp drops in revenue, income, commissions, and profits, that this is no time for half measures.</p>
<p>Markets will be looking for a 'whatever it takes' pledge and from Lowe, and the use of unlimited monetary ammunition until things stabilise.<br><br>Anything less than that will be brushed aside in the savage market conditions.<br><br>From the government's perspective infrastructure programs and tax cuts aren't going to cut it.<br><br>What's needed is putting cash into the hands of households and small businesses today...to prevent the R from becoming a D.<br><br>They'll write books about all this next year; it's been a momentous month. </p>
<p><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Infrastructure programs and tax cuts won't be enough: Pete Wargent

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<p>Off-the-plan buyers are understandably looking past the Coronavirus crisis.</p>
<p>The continued construction at apartment project work sites will bring on their completion close to their intended schedules.</p>
<p>It is one of the telling achievements of this time of pandemic.</p>
<p>Off the plan buyer interest continues too, abeit at reduced levels.</p>
<p>But the use of v<span>irtual property technology </span>has been key in off-the-plan projects enabling prospective buyers to see what their acquisition will provide.</p>
<p><span>With online tools like e-contracts, sales are being done.</span></p>
<p><span>Every day sales agents are also seeing potential buyers in their display suites, but digital tools are </span>assisting in a big way.</p>
<p>The sector’s embrace of digital tools, such as virtual inspections, amazing graphics and 3D, means buyers are able to see past the current uncertainty and make long-term decisions.</p>
<div id="outstream_holder_news">
<p>Customisation is an important offering these days.</p>
<p>Not only can buyers see what they are set to get upfront, they can also make selective changes to the floor plans so the property better suits their needs.</p>
<p>Some buyers may pick up two apartments and amalgamate them into a large three-bedroom apartment.</p>
<p>Others may turn a two-bedroom unit into a large one-bedroom apartment.</p>
<p>Most developers can offer buyers choices of finishes and a variety of upgrades.</p>
<p>A serious foodie might want the dream kitchen with the best appliances, stone bench tops and a pantry.</p>
<p>An asthmatic would probably opt for a timber or stone floor rather than carpet installation.</p>
<p>The current isolation will likely have long-lasting impact on the apartment design. Maybe it will see the installation of better functioning balconies. Some that are bigger, others that offer a Juliet-style garden patio.</p>
<p>Separate rooms being proposed rather than just open plan.</p>
<p>A real study - collaquallily known as Zoom rooms - not just a study nook in the hallway to provide picture-perfect, <span>acoustically sound</span> video conferencing opportunities.</p>
<p>Developers in their own isolation will be rethinking the ideal apartment interior.</p>
<p>Expect more inner city apartments that allow pets as they provide joy for their owners who can't all seek out<span> a sea or tree change.</span></p>
<p>Trendy architects are releasing that the apartment blocks of the 1920s got it right.  </p>
<p><span>When buying off the plan, buyers must rely on the reputation, honesty and goodwill of the developer which is why it's crucial to research the developer, their financial strength and capacity to deliver rectification after issues arises.</span></p>
<p><span>The economy ahead is going to remain challenging for the property industry, with <span>the risk of buying in a poor growth </span>markets, so buyers need to be prepared to withstand bumps along the way.</span></p>
<p><span>Especially since <span>many who purchased off-the-plan a few years ago are now going to have issues, perhaps given loss of income, along with the prospect of valuations coming in on completion at below contract price.</span></span></p>
<p><span>Ofcourse the apartment construction industry had hopes of seeing restored buyer confidence after the startling exposures during 2019 of neglectful building practices with t</span>he cracking at the Opal Tower high-rise just the tip of the industry poor practice.</p>
<p>Apartment markets across Sydney and NSW had reached new heights last year with record residential prices highlighted by a $100 million penthouse sale at Barangaroo.</p>
<p><span>While the pullback by buyers has taken momentum out of the market, and we could see some price falls amid a weakened rental market, the web traffic suggests buyer interest remains strong.</span></p>
<p><span><em>This article first appeared in </em>The Daily Telegraph<br></span></p>
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Off-the-plan buyers looking past Coronavirus crisis

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">On Tuesday (24 March) I will be <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/events/" target="_blank">hosting a lunchtime webinar</a> in which I will discuss the impact of the coronavirus on real estate with Rich Harvey of propertybuyer.</span> </p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">We’ve been inundated with registrations and it will the most popular webinar ever hosted by Hotspotting. Not surprisingly, with the virus impact dominating news media, people have an urgent interest in how this will play out for real estate.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The virus impact is creating volatile share markets but I expect the outcomes for property markets to be quite positive by comparison.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">At times of extreme uncertainty and volatility, Australians tend to retreat to the solidity and relative safety of bricks and mortar.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">We saw that the last time there was a global crisis impacting on our economy and causing the Federal Government and the Reserve Bank to take special action – and that was in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">At that time we were inundated with economists and others seeking their 15 minutes of fame by forecasting a collapse in housing values. Academic Steve Keen famously predicted that our property values would drop at least 40% in 2009. If he’d been right, it would have been an unprecedented demise of house prices, not only in Australia but anywhere in the world.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">And Keen was not alone. At that time, and in subsequent years, there was a seemingly never-ending line-up of doomsday forecasters for Australian real estate.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">One American spruiker, seeking to drum up publicity for an Australian seminar tour, claimed that house values would drop 60% and that land values would fall 90%.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Renowned doomsday ranter Harry S Dent has claimed our property values were on the point of collapse on at least three separate visits to Australia over the past decade.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Keen, Dent and all the other forecasters have one thing in common: they were all proven spectacularly wrong, every time.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">In 2009, at a time when Keen predicted a 40% drop in Australian property values, house values rose 13.6% - that’s the weighted average increase across the eight state and territory capital cities in calendar 2009, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Every capital city except Adelaide recorded a double-digit rise in house prices in 2009.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">And in 2010 property values rose another 6%, according to the ABS, with all capital cities recording some level of growth, except Perth.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">One of the messages we received from those times, and from other periods when share markets have over-reacted to situations in the global economy, is that the Australian property market does not follow the lead of the share market.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">In fact, often it does the opposite.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">One of the factors that will keep residential real estate solid amid the virus crisis is the general shortage of homes in Australia, amid times of strong demand from owner-occupier buyers, including first-home buyers.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">There was relatively little construction of new dwellings in 2019. Vacancies across Australia are very low in most locations and listings of properties for sale remain well down on the levels of recent years.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">One measure showing the general shortage of homes is the vacancy rate figures published each month by SQM Research.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Their latest report shows that, for the first time in many years, every one of the eight state and territory capital cities has a vacancy rate below 3%.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">In recent years both Perth, Brisbane and Darwin have had quite high vacancy rates and Sydney recently also had a vacancy rate above 3%. But now Perth is down to 2%, Brisbane is 2.2% and Darwin has dropped steadily lately and is now 2.7%. Sydney’s rate has also fallen and it’s now 2.9%.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Hobart, Canberra and Adelaide all have vacancy rates around 1%, which means their rental markets are very tight. Melbourne has fallen lately and well as its vacancy rate is now just 1.9%.</span> </p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">So four of the capital cities are below 2% and all of them are lower than 3%.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">With availability of rental properties so low, we’re seeing rents rising in most of the capital cities.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">If vacancies are tight and rents are rising, prices are likely to heading north as well – and that’s certainly the case at the moment.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The price report published by CoreLogic earlier this month showed prices had risen in the previous three months pretty much everywhere in Australia – in all eight capital cities and in all seven state regional jurisdictions.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The SQM Research figures published on 17 March showed strong growth in our largest cities, with Sydney up 11%, Melbourne 9% and Brisbane around 7%.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">But Hobart still leads, according to these figures, with house prices 14% higher than a year ago.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">And there were also moderate rises in cities like Canberra and Adelaide.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">So, overall, the data shows that our property markets are very strong – and well placed to handle whatever outcomes arise from the virus crisis.</span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">T<em>erry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au</em></span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s2"><a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au"><em>ryder@hotspotting.com.au</em></a></span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s1"><em>twitter.com/hotspotting</em></span></p>
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Coronavirus, a threat or opportunity for the housing market? Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="post-title entry-title">Globally there are now more than 657,000 cases of the Coronavirus, and more than 30,400 deaths.<br><br></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HM41pHmKAsY/Xn7wR2xMvLI/AAAAAAAA08U/bG7s8MQo5zkSOQxZJbwM7OzigYI8UDjUQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/LOG.jpg" width="640" height="450" data-original-height="569" data-original-width="806"></div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><br>On a global basis new cases continue to climb to 65,000 per day and rising.<br><br></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-R6pcDJYkWbQ/Xn7wokBLYZI/AAAAAAAA08g/VMdwPR0gQL4wgpDxU9IL9VUU8mYRr9uaACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/C2.jpg" width="640" height="344" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="911"></div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"> </p>
<div>With the exponential increase continuing, it's only a matter of time before total global known cases ascend to 1 million and beyond. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>On the positive side of the ledger, China appears to have all but eliminated new cases, and a number of other countries appear to have arrested the virus. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Germany now has more than 58,000 cases, but its curve does now appear to be flattening.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Tragically, Italy has seen more than 92,000 cases and 10,000 deaths, but with luck here too the exponential growth may soon be curtailed. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Spain's figures still look nasty, but the curve is gradually flattening. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Increasingly the biggest disaster of all looks as though it might be in the US, where cases have exploded to 120,000 with little sign of any promising progress to date.</div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><strong>Australia shutdown</strong><br><strong><br></strong>How about in Australia?</p>
<div>Today, new known cases increased by 460, taking total known cases to 3,640, with 14 deaths to date (mainly over those aged in their 70s or older). </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-U0VzMI3HDdc/Xn8hj5RCmgI/AAAAAAAA08o/1nU4s_mE34srRpq1lVS9p4-mJr9GaupiwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/C1.jpg" width="640" height="400" data-original-height="593" data-original-width="946"></div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"> </p>
<div>That does represent an increase from 370 new cases on March 24, which was four days earlier, but at this stage the situation doesn't appear to be deteriorating catastrophically.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Granted, a lot may change in this regard within a week or two. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>So we're by no means out of the woods yet, but for whatever reasons things do appear to be shaping up somewhat better in Australia than elsewhere.</div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-aAbsD3Y4PHw/Xn8h6M-ybsI/AAAAAAAA08w/OMN88HSHX8U2YCeIm2eZi47L7kOC-lZ7QCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV1.jpg" width="640" height="470" data-original-height="656" data-original-width="893"></div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"> </p>
<div>And that's in spite of multiple cruise ship blunders and numerous earlier examples of flagrant disregard for social distancing rules.<br><br>And, indeed, it's in spite of more widespread testing per capita in Australia than in most other countries (Korea, Germany, and Russia have held more tests than we have, but of course their respective populations are far larger than ours, at only 25 million). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Only a virologist can explain the possible reasons for this; perhaps the climate helps?</div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><strong>A 9-point plan for re-opening Australia</strong></p>
<div>This is a global pandemic with global ramifications, but ultimately the world won't end, and figuratively speaking it'll be every man for himself when it comes to the critical question of how to kick-start national economies again.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Here's a 9-point plan for how we might be able to achieve it soonest and most effectively, from the perspective of a perpetually under-qualified blogger, should the daily figures begin to improve over the next fortnight:</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>1 - Initiate a shelter-in-place order</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>States already have shelter-in-place action plans, so these should be used immediately for all non-essential workers and businesses. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Aussie economy has effective already had a coronary, so it's now imperative to get daily new cases of the Coronavirus under control as soon as humanly possible.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The sooner we can do that, the sooner we can think about re-opening. </div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><strong>2 - Wage subsidies</strong><br><br>The government has spoken much about its 'stimulus packages the equivalent of 10 per cent of GDP', but the truth is much of this has been in the form of loan facilities and other non-cash items.</p>
<div>Whether by following a similar model to Boris Johnson in the UK or through another approach using the existing transfer system, the government must announce wage subsidies for stood down workers to keep them solvent until such time that the economy can be opened for business again.<br><br>Retail workers are being stood down at an alarming rate, while hospitality and tourism is also being smashed.<br><br>But these workers can return to work soon too, provided that they can be tided over with subsidies.<br><br>Furthermore, with Treasury or RBA funding, banks may also be better served over the medium term to offer interest-only mortgage terms at an interest rate of, say, 2½ per cent to any borrowers in distress, for as long as needed (in addition to the arbitrary 6-month payment holiday terms already being promoted). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Interest-only mortgage terms with the use of an offset account can be an ideal means for families and other mortgagors to begin building up a safety buffer as get back on their feet from a financial perspective.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Rental relief measures will presumably also follow, perhaps implemented at the state level. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>These are extraordinary measures, but they're also extraordinary times.<br><br>Shutting down the economy is effectively a national disaster scenario, and it needs to be approached as such. </div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><strong>3 - Set up a COVID-10 Delivery Unit</strong></p>
<div>Create a dedicated COVID-19 Delivery Unit to purchase, import, manufacture, or find any other ways to both stockpile and circulate facemasks, surgical masks, respiratory equipment, ventilators, gowns, protective gear, and treatment drugs, and prepare as many ICU beds as practicable around the country. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Even <em>if</em> the virus gets under control in the short term, there could yet be a second, third, and fourth wave, so it's better to go hard here rather than die wondering (for want of a better phrase). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>If there's available funding for testing and research into vaccines, cures, and effective treatments, then implement that too. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>4 - Fund a COVID-19 Testing and Tracing Unit</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Australia must acquire millions of testing kits, and put in place widespread and rigorous testing and tracing regime, with an enforceable action plan for quarantining and treating those with symptoms, and tracing the recent contacts of any known infected persons. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>5 - Government messaging</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Testing and tracing will likely need to continue long after the curve of new cases is flattened, and to this end government messaging should encourage Aussies to keep a daily journal of their movements, and a daily record of folks they may have had close contact with each day (this is a suggestion I read about at the excellent <em>Calculated Risk</em>, and as usual it's a very thoughtful one). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>One of the best-known finance authors once reportedly said that people need to hear simple messages over and over again before they truly sink in...a point with which I concur.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Therefore, appropriate messaging needs to be hammered home repeatedly on social distancing, the wearing of facemasks, washing hands, sanitising, hygiene, avoiding touching objects unnecessarily, and a raft of other key points. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The wearing of facemasks has, to my knowledge, normally only been common practice amongst Aussies of Asian origin, but common sense says we should all consider adopting the practice (and maybe gloves too).</div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><strong>6 - Re-open local economies with few cases</strong></p>
<div>The government faces the nigh on impossible task of balancing the public's health against the human and economic cost of keeping businesses closed.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Take the example of the capital city of Darwin.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Northern Territory was already in recession before the COVID-19 issue surfaced, and now its borders must be closed and its businesses will be hit harder still by any restrictive measures. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Yet the entire territory has just 15 known cases of the Coronavirus to date, and only one death.</div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9gbrFTI3xpE/Xn8mfKh2aeI/AAAAAAAA084/MmkNK0vSRMoQk9SnCFIDGM8SAMP5CISAgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/C2.jpg" width="640" height="436" data-original-height="662" data-original-width="970"></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>At the appropriate point the towns and cities (and then states and territories) with the fewest cases will need to see restrictive measures lifted.<br><br>This can soon be an opportunity for Australia's regions to lead the economy forward again, which would make a pleasant change from the heavy reliance on Sydney and Melbourne of the past 7-8 years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Virus hotspots may need to remain shuttered for longer, but for towns and cities with the fewest cases the curfews and restrictive measures can be lifted soonest. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>7 - Re-open the Aussie borders, but with mandatory testing</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The capability should exist to introduce and maintain mandatory testing for all entrants into Australia on an ongoing basis. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It goes without saying that those showing symptoms will need to be quarantined and appropriately treated. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>On the one hand these measures may seem draconian, but on the other hand, what might the alternative look like? </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Many of the cases in Australia apparently originated overseas, so airports and the border are evidently a high risk area. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>8 - Allow businesses to re-open</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>As daily new known cases begin to decline, allow businesses and trading to re-open, but with social distancing still to be practised to the extent possible.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Businesses should be encouraged to allow staff to work from home where practicable, and group meetings discouraged where possible.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Moreover, an over-arching rule of common sense must apply. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>9 - An ongoing fight</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's not yet entirely clear whether re-infection is possible, or whether there will be second and third waves of the virus in those locations where cases of the virus have initially been controlled. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Therefore, we must remain vigilant well beyond the point that the economy is up and humming again.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>A balancing act</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>There is, of course, no 'right' way to do these things. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Every day that companies or self-employed workers are closed for business inflicts more pain, so there are many challenging decisions to be made in real time by those in power to balance the potential risks versus respective health and economic costs. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Only in hindsight will experts know what could or should have been done with more certainty, but this 9-point plan is what's swirling around my head tonight.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>In short: </strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>- Issue shelter-in-place orders until the curve of new cases is flattened;</div>
<div> </div>
<div>- Go hard, fast, and early to wage subsidies for workers and cash payments for businesses, with further mortgage and rental relief packages to follow;</div>
<div> </div>
<div>- Build up a war chest of medical supplies, and introduce a nationwide testing, tracing, and quarantining program;</div>
<div> </div>
<div>- Hammer home the 'best practice' messaging, and encourage record-keeping with respect to personal movements and contact with others;</div>
<div> </div>
<div>- As daily new cases begin to decline, re-open locations and economies with the fewest known Coronavirus cases first, and gradually roll this re-opening out nationwide; and </div>
<div> </div>
<div>- Enforce mandatory testing for all entrants to Australia, with quarantine as required.</div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></p>
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A 9-point plan for re-opening Australia: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>There’s a startling inconsistency in Australian news media when it comes to the treatment of real estate prices.</p>
<p>When actual data is published, showing what actually happened with house prices, media will savage the figures (if they are positive, as they were in March and April) and dismiss them as irrelevant or misleading. That’s journalism, right? Journalists are supposed to challenge things.</p>
<p>But if someone makes a forecast about prices which is negative, news media will accept that without question. And, worse, media will turn this speculation into a fact. It’s not a case of “prices are forecast to fall”; it’s presented as “prices will fall”.</p>
<p>This inconsistency in the approach of media speaks volumes about the mentality of journalists –</p>
<p>- If it’s a positive, attack it;</p>
<p>- If it’s a negative, make love to it.</p>
<p>Data from both CoreLogic and SQM Research showed prices resisted the impacts of virus shutdown in both March and April, with prices rising to some degree in most markets around the nation. We’re three months into the covid-19 schemozzle and there’s still no evidence of the price collapse predicted by the usual suspects.</p>
<p>But this was broadly challenged by news media as being misleading and untenable. Most headlines early in May, reporting the April figures, were extremely negative. One media outlet managed to turn all that solid price data into this headline: “Real Estate Markets Collapse.</p>
<p>It’s essentially about click-bait and the truth is optional – but, in other walks of life, if someone uses that level of deception and dishonesty to try to make money, they end up being charged with serious offences and in some cases go to jail.</p>
<p>Contrast all that with the treatment in the past week of forecasts for house prices by some of the big banks. These have been quite negative and news media has had a field day with those reports: no one has questioned or challenged them at all.</p>
<p>And they should be challenged, because the track records of bank economists in forecasting anything, but in particular real estate prices, are notoriously bad.</p>
<p>(As an aside, observe the record of Bill Evans, chief economist for Westpac, in predicting interest rates – he will make a forecast about likely movements in the next 12 months, with lots of publicity, but in perhaps two months’ time will issue a new, different, forecast. This begs the question: what was the value of your forecast two months ago, which you are now suggesting is wrong?)</p>
<p>If ever something deserved to be attacked by journalists, it’s the forecasts of bank economists about the housing market. Collectively, they have a very low level of credibility.</p>
<p>Let’s take National Australia Bank as a case study. The bank publishes regular forecasts about residential property prices, including the quarterly NAB Residential Property Survey reports. I’ve been reading NAB’s forecasts for many years and here’s what I know to be true – the forecasts are never correct. And I do mean never.</p>
<p>They always err on the side of pessimistic and invariably they are wrong.</p>
<p>Here’s a recent example. NAB published one of its reports in January 2019, containing forecasts for house prices for capital cities for the coming year.</p>
<p>Here what they predicted: capital cities on average would record a 3.8% fall in house prices in 2019. Sydney would drop 5.6%, Melbourne would decline 7.0%, Brisbane would deliver zero growth and other state capitals would deliver minimal growth.</p>
<p>News media, of course, gave this considerable fanfare and treated the forecasts as facts – i.e. Melbourne prices will fall 7% by the end of the year.</p>
<p>Here’s what actually happened, according to three major research entities which publish price statistics – and also according to NAB itself.</p>
<p>According to the latest NAB report, the capital city average for houses in 2019 was actually a rise of 2.9%, not a fall of 3.8%. The capital average for apartments was a rise of 3.4%, not the 4.3% decline that the NAB report forecast a year earlier.</p>
<p>The Melbourne result was a rise of 4.6% for houses and a rise of 6.5% for apartments, not the big declines that NAB had forecast. And in Sydney, there was a rise of 6.1% for houses and a rise of 3.4% for apartments, in contrast to the declines of 5.6% and 5.5% that the NAB report of January 2019 had forecast.</p>
<p>It’s quite a dismal failing, isn’t it, when you predict something will decline 5.6%, but it actually rises 6.1%.</p>
<p>NAB chief economist Alan Oster did not mention any of that in his recent media soundbites on his latest report. Here’s your credulity rating with me, Alan: 0</p>
<p>But the contrasts between the NAB forecasts and the eventual reality are even more stark when you look at the figures from more credible sources.</p>
<p>According to the figure from three major sources, the capital city average result for house prices in 2019 was a rise 5.5% (Domain), 2.1% (CoreLogic) and 2.9% (SQM Research).</p>
<p>The result for Sydney houses was a rise of 6.8% (Domain), 6.1% (CoreLogic) and 4.8% (SQM). Remember, NAB forecast a 5.6% decline for Sydney house prices.</p>
<p>The result for Melbourne houses was a rise of 8.7% (Domain), 4.6% (CoreLogic) and 5.7% (SQM) – not the 7.0% decline NAB had forecast.</p>
<p>There are similar contrasts with the other cities. Hobart, for example, rose 15.6% (Domain) and 11.7% (SQM), whereas the NAB report had forecast a 2019 rise of just 1.8%.</p>
<p>Without boring you with any more statistical detail, I can tell you that the NAB reports have been similarly, and consistently, wrong with their price forecasts year after year. They always lean towards negativity and real estate keeps on proving them wrong.</p>
<p>Yet, this nation’s gaggle of non-journalists has accepted their latest pessimistic outpouring without a single challenge. Its new forecasts, which are quite negative, have been celebrated in media across the country.</p>
<p>Shame on all of you for being so willing to heap further misery on Australian households without any credible justification.</p>
<p>Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au<br> ryder@hotspotting.com.au<br>twitter.com/hotspotting</p>
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House price forecasts are usually wrong: HotSpotting's Terry Ryder

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Australia is teeming with people who have questions about the impact of the virus crisis on real estate and are seeking urgent answers.</span> </p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">My webinar with buyers’ agent Rich Harvey of propertybuyer on 24 March attracted a big audience – our largest ever - and we received more questions than we could handle during the live event.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Many of those questions including some of the fundamental ones that everyone is asking: will property values decline, how long will it last, is this a good time to buy, what happens if my tenant can’t pay the rent and if I ask my lender for a mortgage holiday, will it affect my credit rating?</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Here are some of the key questions or comments, and my responses.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><strong><span class="s1"><em>Is now the time to be buying an investment property? Will there be tenants in the market?</em></span></strong></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">I think this is a good time to be looking for an investment property. There will be opportunities to buy well in the current climate. Buyers will be able to negotiate from a position of strength. Just be careful to select a location with the credentials for long-term growth. There will be tenants – vacancies are low around the nation and the various government stimulus packages will assist people who might otherwise struggle to pay their rent.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><strong><span class="s1"><em>Auction clearance rates will change now that the first wave of lock-down controls come into effect. Do you predict that the market will continue to be healthy amidst rising unemployment?</em></span></strong></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Yes, I think the market will continue to be healthy. The rise in unemployment will be temporary – if it was long-term, extending right throughout the year, it would have a material impact on markets and property prices, but I expect it to be relatively short-term. Auctions will be curtailed by the government restrictions on gatherings, but most sales do not occur via auction so that in itself will not be detrimental to property prices. Only 10-11% of sales across Australian happen through auctions. It will cause some vendors who particularly want auctions to withdraw their properties from sale, which will exacerbate the shortage of listings and put a floor under property values.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><strong><span class="s1"><em>Do you think vacancy rates will rise in the short term with unemployment increasing?</em></span></strong></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">I think there will be some increase in vacancy rates in the short-term, but mainly because owners who had been using AirBNB rather than permanent rental situations will now be seeking permanent tenants (because of the travel restrictions, which are killing the AirBNB market at the moment). Most markets should be able to absorb this, because vacancy rates are very low in most locations across Australia.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><strong><span class="s1"><em>Can you help unpack how a potential 10% unemployment rate cannot have any impact on property prices going forward?</em></span></strong></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">If we had a 10% jobless rate long-term in Australia, it would impact on property prices – but we won’t have that. We will have a short, sharp spike in unemployment but it won’t last long enough to cause a significant fall in house prices.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><em>Will this situation promote longer-term demographic shifts to more people working remotely and strengthen property growth in regional areas?</em></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">I think that is a trend anyway and has helped to drive the boom in the past 2-3 years in Regional Victoria, particularly in towns within 1-2 hours of Melbourne, and also the Central Coast just outside Sydney. The current situation will probably enhance that trend towards people working remotely and therefore making lifestyle changes. Increasingly, there are fewer and fewer reasons to be close to the CBDs of major cities.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><strong><span class="s1"><em>Do you have any perspectives on negotiating with developers during this time, especially as first home buyers.</em></span></strong></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Everything is negotiable at any time but in these turbulent times I suspect buyers will be able to negotiate favourable deals when buying new product from developers. It would be a good time to present yourself as a buyer at a time when many people will be standing back or sitting on the fence.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><strong><span class="s1"><em>Over the next few months if you find yourself unable to keep up with your loans, get on the front foot and call the credit provider early.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>This will not only relieve some pressure as you won’t be living in fear of what they might do, but it will most likely help to protect your credit file in the process.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>If the emotion is too close to home for you to liaise with the credit provider yourself, then engage a professional to do it for you. But check in early with your lenders.</em></span></strong></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">I think that is sound advice. The major lenders have made it clear that they want to help their mortgage customers, as well as businesses, because they have a strong vested interest in keeping their customers healthy. Anyone who is struggling with loan repayments should contact their lenders and work out a solution with them. The major banks are indicating that they will allow people to pause their repayments for a period of time.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><strong><span class="s1"><em>What should landlords do if a tenant advises they can’t pay their rent?</em></span></strong></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">I don’t think it’s possible to give a generalised answer to that. It needs to be handled on a case-by-case basis. But a lot of the emphasis in the various stimulus packages is on assisting people in those situations. The benefits for people out of work have been significantly increased to try to avoid situations where people can’t pay their rent. But, for any landlords who fact that situation, work with your tenants, or your property manager, to come up with a solution – perhaps by reducing the rent for a short period.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><strong><span class="s1"><em>Should I reduce the rent before the tenants ask?</em></span></strong></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">It may be a good strategy, to pre-empt any problems – perhaps offer a reduction in the rent for a short period to help get through the difficult period. It’s preferable to do that, rather than losing your tenant. I note that some landlords are doing that, according to media reports. But it needs to assessed on a case-by-case basis.</span> </p>
<p class="p1"><strong><span class="s1"><em>Should we hold on to our savings and see how low the market will go?</em></span></strong></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">That kind of strategy seldom works. It’s indicates a short-term viewpoint when real estate should be approached with long-term horizons. The other problem with that kind of approach is that it’s impossible to pinpoint the bottom of the market – the data that shows the bottom of the trough doesn’t appear until a long time after the event. A better approach is to look for good buying opportunities in areas with the credentials for long-term growth.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><strong><span class="s1"><em>What is your take on people losing their jobs who have a mortgage, will they lose their homes, if so how will they get a rental in such a tight rental market?</em></span></strong></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">One of the key factors in the response from the Federal Government and the major banks is to support people who lose their jobs and have difficulty paying the mortgage. Lenders have said they will offer mortgage holidays – e.g. suspending payments for six months. The tight rental markets are being eased, to a certain extent, by investors who previously used AirBNB now putting their properties into the permanent rental pool (because the travel restrictions are killing the AirBNB market).</span></p>
<p class="p1"><strong><span class="s1"><em>My husband is very nervous and wants me to sell our family home.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>What’s your advice on selling now.</em></span> </strong></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">No, please don’t do that. There is no need to panic to that degree. We are not going to see property values collapse and anyone who struggles to pay the mortgage during this crisis period should be able to arrange a suspension of their regular payments with their lender.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><strong><span class="s1"><em>If I were to make an opportunistic buy, what’s to say I can rent it out in a timely manner in the current environment?</em></span></strong></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">A sensible investor would, firstly, buy in a location where the vacancy rate is low (and most locations around the nation currently have low vacancies) and, secondly, speak to property managers in the local area about the prospects for renting the property you’re thinking of buying – before signing a contract.</span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s1">T<em>erry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au</em></span></p>
<p class="p4"><span class="s2"><a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au"><em>ryder@hotspotting.com.au</em></a></span></p>
<p class="p5"><span class="s1"><em>twitter.com/hotspotting</em></span></p>
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13 Coronavirus property questions answered by Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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<p>House prices continue to defy forecasts of dramatic decreases from the virus shutdown – and the significance of that continues to be downplayed and misreported by mainstream media.</p>
<p>It would be refreshing is journalists could simply report the facts, in an even and balanced way, rather than go to extraordinary lengths to find negatives to feature in their headlines.</p>
<p>Let’s look at the facts. Figures published on 1 May by CoreLogic show that house prices nationally recorded another small increase in April.</p>
<p>The CoreLogic figures confirmed those published a few days earlier by SQM Research, showing that most capital cities had recorded rises in the past month.</p>
<p>The CoreLogic figures indicate that six of the eight capital cities, and six of the seven regional jurisdictions, recorded some level of increase in their house price indexes during April.</p>
<p>The biggest increases for the month were recorded in Darwin and Regional Tasmania, which both rose 1.1% in April.</p>
<p>Nationally, there was a 0.2% increase in house prices during the month. It’s a very small increase - but in the circumstances any rise is remarkable.</p>
<p>And it defies media forecasts a significant decline in April.</p>
<p>A month ago, when the figures for March (showing price rises in most markets across the nation), media generally dismissed those figures as being insignificant, as they (allegedly) pre-dated the full impact of the coronavirus shutdown.</p>
<p>Most articles in early April said the March figures were irrelevant and that those for April would show the full impact of the shutdown, with significant decreases predicted. There were some very negative and quite alarmist headlines a month ago.</p>
<p>However, the CoreLogic data shows that the housing market remains resilient in the face of the considerable forces created by the economic downturn. While sales activity has dropped markedly, and rents have fallen in some cities, housing values have not dropped.</p>
<p>The price data is strong also for the three months ending 30 April. All eight capital cities recorded increases in their house price indexes, headed by a 3.4% increase in Darwin and a 3.2% rise in Sydney.</p>
<p>Six of the seven regional markets also rose in the past quarter, with Northern Territory the only exception. The regional increases were headed by a 3% uplift in Tasmania and a 2.7% rise in Victoria.</p>
<p>Nationally, there was a 2% increase in the house price index in the past three months.</p>
<p>In annual terms, house prices are up 8.3% nationally, including a 9.8% increase in the combined capital cities index.</p>
<p>Keep in mind that the first of the share market meltdowns occurred on 20 February and we are now in May. We’re 10 weeks into the virus-induced economic schemozzle and, according to usual suspects like Shane Oliver of AMP Capital, we should be seeing evidence of a dramatic drop in property values.</p>
<p>But we’re not. We’re seeing a big fall in sales activity, but the number of properties for sale has also reduced significantly, so supply and demand remains in some sort of balance in many locations. So there’s no great pressure for prices to fall.</p>
<p>All this confirms anecdotal evidence from the coal face of the property industry. I’m having lots of conversations with valuers, buyers’ agents, investment advisers and marketers of various sorts who are seeing good sales happening amid strong competition and values staying firm.</p>
<p>The number of potential buyers in the market has dropped, but the active ones are genuine buyers, with the tyre-kickers having dropped out.</p>
<p><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au</em><br><em> ryder@hotspotting.com.au</em><br><em>twitter.com/hotspotting</em></p>
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House prices defy forecasts of dramatic virus downturn: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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<p>We’re going to benefit from the shutdown imposed by the virus, in infinite ways. It may not feel like it at the moment, and I don’t disregard the pain many are going through, but Australia will look back at this crisis as a time that changed the nation for the better.</p>
<p>The discussion now is about how and when we return to normal. But the new normal will be different to the old. It has to be.</p>
<p>One of the big lessons is that we cannot continue to have so many important things made in one country – or anywhere offshore. There are things we need to make in Australia. Manufacturing is poised for a revival, with benefits in employment. This will be part of a strong economic recovery.</p>
<p>The corporate twits who thought it made sense to locate customer call centres offshore because it saved a few bucks are now reconsidering their strategies. They need to bring customer service back home and in the process they will have fewer angry and frustrated customers. And create jobs in Australia.</p>
<p>The situation has forced us to innovate and to work harder at helping our customers. Real estate has found ways to function without live auctions and open houses. We’re seeing examples of online auctions achieving sales well over the reserve price. One-on-one inspections of properties have taken us back to old service standards and getting to know buyers one-on-one. Everyone benefits.</p>
<p>Many of us have realised how much we value the simple things we took for granted, like meeting friends for a cuppa or taking the family to the beach. When the restrictions are lifted, Australians will party like they never have since the end of World War Two – not extravagantly but by going to cafes, pubs, theatres, parks and beaches. A recent survey indicates people plan to take holidays in Australia. Many of the lost jobs will come back (not all, unfortunately).</p>
<p>Some people have learned, by accident, how to save. The restrictions have stopped us going out and spending. The improvement to the bank balance has been an eye-opener. Now some of us know how to get on top of the mortgage and young adults have been shown a way to save a deposit for a first home. First-home buyers with secure jobs will be busy in the second half of the year.</p>
<p>The resources sector has remained steady in the shutdown period. Queensland locations with links to the mining industry have experienced an uplift in rental demand amid the virus crisis, with rents actually rising. China, our biggest trading partner, is projected by the IMF to experience moderate economic growth this year and a boom next year. I’m expecting a resources boom in Australia as China and other nations get ambitious about economic recovery. Real estate markets influenced by resources links may surge – but investors should proceed with caution, because these are fickle and volatile markets.</p>
<p>A more engaging trend with impacts on real estate is the one I wrote about last week. We can expect an increase in people moving from the big cities and buying in lifestyle areas within an hour or two of the city. This movement has been enhanced by technology which allows people to work remotely – and will be exacerbated by the shutdown, which has forced people to work from home.</p>
<p>Some will make it a permanent arrangement. Expect uplift in markets like the Central Coast and the Southern Highlands in NSW; Ballarat, Bendigo, the Latrobe Valley and elsewhere in Victoria; and the Sunshine Coast in Queensland.</p>
<p>As an aside, the virus has done all of us a favour by delivering a major come-uppance to the ugly bastards who run global oil businesses and regularly hold the world to ransom with their cynical manipulation of supply and prices. We’ve all saved money by needing to fill up our cars less often and paying less when we do. Will it change our habits post-shutdown? Hopefully, but probably not.</p>
<p>The virus has generally done the environment a big favour. The before-and-after shots of some of world’s big cities are a revelation, including some in Australia. There’s been a big reduction in emissions. The greatest benefit of the shutdown would be achieved if we learnt something from that. Will we? I fear we will easily slip back into old habits.</p>
<p>But, amid everything, we’ve learnt who the real heroes are and how much we underpay them. We’ve discovered that we can do without over-rated footie players and self-absorbed corporate executives, but not without under-resourced and under-appreciated nurses. Boris Johnson has learnt that more than most.</p>
<p>And we’ve seen a cultural shift in politics and business. There’s been a refreshing absence of adversarial politics. The country apparently can function without people shouting at one another in Parliament. Let’s make that a permanent change.</p>
<p>Business in many ways has sought to be part of the solution, even including the major banks. The only sectors which haven’t entered into the spirit of pulling together have been insurance and some sections of news media.</p>
<p>Who knows – maybe going out of your way to help people is actually good for business.</p>
<p>Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au <br>ryder@hotspotting.com.au<br>twitter.com/hotspotting</p>
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The future benefits of the coronavirus crisis: HotSpotting's Terry Ryder

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<div>EXPERT OBSERVER</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The coronavirus was confirmed as a global pandemic by the World Health Organisation (WHO).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The WHO noted that known cases have increased 13-fold in the past two weeks.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>All shops in Italy except for foodstores and pharmacies have been shuttered, as the mortality rate in the country has soared to an alarmingly high level.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>My Italian holiday is looking less likely by the week, which is annoying as I've been learning the language this year (what's the Italian for 'FFS' again?).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Angela Merkel announced that up to 58 million Germans, or 70 per cent on the population, could contract the illness.<br><br><strong>Policy response</strong>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>These are serious people and serious organisations, not renowned for making wild statements, so it seems inevitable that containment measures will be taken around the world, leading to a slowdown in global growth and earnings for at least the next 3-6 months.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Australian government has announced a stimulus package worth A$17 billion, which is at least a start, albeit it still doesn't sound like nearly enough.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Why politicians are still making comments about a 'measured Budget response' I'll never know (actually I do know, and it's dumb). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It wouldn't be at all surprising if we see a second round of stimulus ahead in the coming months, on top of a finally interest rate cut, and then potentially QE in the form of yield curve control.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There's little point in going over old ground, but even at this stage the Reserve Bank sounds very reluctant to take action, at a time when the feeling around the financial markets traps is that what's really needed is a 'whatever it takes' mentality and message.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Mind you, we haven't had that for the past few years, so it's unlikely to start now. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>Grizzly bear</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>I'm not normally in the business of writing daily markets commentary.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's largely a fool's errand, arguably not all that useful, and potentially quite annoying.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But since everyone else is doing it....US stocks whipsawed again and dropped 5 per cent last night to enter a bear market.<br><br>It's been the fastest bear market of all time, with the 20 per cent drop taking just 19 days from the peak. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Even after a 20 per cent correction, stocks are priced at remarkably expensive levels given that the US economy is teetering on a bust, with so many debt bombs lurking quietly beneath. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Gd2Vl5ChIfE/Xmlb_NhDpaI/AAAAAAAA0oE/-L5IQJFBlB4V0nVPubpBVlQU6S08ObcJgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CAPE.jpg" width="640" height="478" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1075"></div>
<div> </div>
<div><em>Source: Shiller</em></div>
<div> </div>
<div>No doubt investors have become accustomed to the Fed riding to the rescue, but that may not be such a wise ideas this time. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Apart from picking up a few holdings in the UK oil supermajors, I'm mostly remaining in cash.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Stock prices for BP on the FTSE are back at 1996 levels, even as the Bank of England delivered an emergency 50 basis points rate cut and a raft of stimulus measures to support business and markets (RBA take note), and as the value of its overseas earnings look set to increase. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>But generally speaking, I'm happy to sit on the sidelines through this tumultuous period, especially given that the market could halve again, even from this point. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Aussies futures are pointing to another plunge at the open, and even since February 20 the moves are beginning to damage retirement accounts materially.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But again, even the likely 25 per cent drop we'll see during today's trade only takes the market back to where it was in mid-2015. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>By no stretch of the imagination is the market 'cheap', especially given the dire outlook for earnings.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The counterpoint is that at some point the coronavirus will likely pass, and given the massive global policy easing markets could eventually snap back (which is why a sensible asset allocation policy and written investment plan is so important).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em>
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Coronavirus confirmed a global pandemic: Pete Wargent

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<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="post-title entry-title">After a relief rally, the oil price has dropped back towards new cycle lows as the Coronavirus threatens to lead to a prolonged slump in demand.</p>
<p class="post-title entry-title">A few more buying opportunities looking likely this week. </p>
<div>The price of Brent Crude is now -67.2 per cent below its January highs and we're staring at the lowest price level in 17 years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-hvDFQnnUDFc/XoEkUmFcDwI/AAAAAAAA0-g/kJsvvAY_qkA1kCAlrBxC2lwTrPX1OuK-wCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/Crude.jpg" width="640" height="318" data-original-height="798" data-original-width="1600"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Some analysts think that the oil price could hit $10/barrel over the coming months, which from my perspective would represent 'back up the truck' territory.<br><br><strong>Stage 3 rolled out</strong><br><br>There have been some more promising numbers for New Zealand and Australia on new cases of the virus.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The short, sharp shutdown looks likely to be the base case strategy to flatten the curve and buy valuable time for medical centres and hospitals.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Victoria ramped up its response to Stage Three, with spot fines of up to $1,600 for social distancing breaches, while gatherings of more than two are no longer to be allowed (excluding members of the same household).<br><br>Queenslanders now also face $1,300 spot fines for breaches. </div>
<div>
<br><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em>
</div>
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