Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

China

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Foreign investor interest in Australia remains strong, the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) chair David Irvine suggests.
But the latest FIRB report revealed a strong shift with the United States stepping up its investment in the 2017-18 period accompanied by declining Chinese investment easing into second place.
The United Kingdom, Singapore, Canada, the Netherlands and France make up the top seven.
The latest report on foreign investment showed the US recorded a $10 billion increase in approved investment to $36 billion in 2017-18, with significant increases in real estate and the manufacturing, electricity and gas sectors.  
China was the second largest source country with a $15 billion decrease in approved proposed investment to $23 billion.
The reduction in approved Chinese investment was due to falls across all investment sectors but especially property. Chinese proposed investment peaked at $47.3 billion in 2015–16.  
Chinese investment in real estate dropped to $12.7 billion in 2017-18 from $15.3 billion the year before, though still accounted for a quarter of foreign real estate investment.
Victoria gets the greatest share of Chinese residential investment with 46% of all approvals, with NSW in a distant second with 23% followed by Queensland's 17%.
The data doesn't track people who don't need to request approval, which means NSW might be actually getting more investment. 
But it seems Melbourne retains advantages over Sydney in terms of prices and taxes. 
Chinese buying is being impacted by several factors, local and international.
There's been the unexpected cancelling of promised mortgage loans by Australian banks, plus the higher foreign stamp duty taxes, along with Chinese government capital controls making it more difficult to move money from China, suggests Carrie Law, the boss of the Chinese property portal Juwai.
"We expect Chinese buying to be flat in 2019," Law thinks.
I don't think we ought regard the recent trend as permanent given tailwinds that will support Chinese buying including the still-strong Chinese wealth growth.
There is the desire to get a bargain while the market is soft. Plus, Law suggest there is a lack of investment opportunities in China, along with a possible shift in investment from the U.S. to Australia due to any emerging trade war.
Additionally the yuan’s weakness is not holding back investment in property as there is an advantage in currency rates in favour of Australia compared to other major countries. 
The Chinese also lack appealing alternative investments at home.
Interestingly, the Federal Government's crackdown on residential properties held by foreigners in breach of the foreign investment rules uncovered just 131 now-sold illegally held properties in 2017-2018.
No nationalities were advised in the figure which was up slightly from the 96 ordered forced sales in 2016-17.
There were other breaches that did not see any forced divestment.
More than half the breaches identified were residential property in Victoria, while 20% related to property in New South Wales after the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) completed around 1,400 residential real estate investigations during the year.
ATO data matching analysis is increasingly important in compliance investigations. 
Data matching made up 63% of the 1,700 cases investigated in 2017–18.
Although information received from the community is a source of intelligence, only a small proportion actually involved a breach of the Act.
The report noted that in most cases the owners of the properties reported by community members were found to be Australian citizens or permanent residents.
That suggests we might a little too quick to judge our new neighbours.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Australians are too suspicious of the nationality of our new neighbours

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Through 2018, annual growth in China continued to decelerate, from 6.8% at March to 6.4% in December. The annualised pace in the December quarter was weaker still, circa 6.0%. These are outcomes reminiscent of the GFC low of March 2009, so it is not surprising that many in financial markets are concerned about 2019 and beyond. From the official PMI’s, a broad-based slowdown is evident across manufacturing and, to a lesser extent, services, led by a deterioration in external demand.
Regarding trade, it is important to note that the shock being experienced by China currently is having flow-on effects for the rest of Asia, especially the north-east Asia block. Taiwan and Korea have high exposure to China demand, shipping 31% and 27% of their exports respectively to China in 2018. A large bulk (45-57%) of Korea, Taiwan and Japan’s exports to China are machineries, reflecting these economies’ involvement in China’s production chain. These economies’ exports of machineries have been weakening since November, particularly Korea and Japan which saw their exports of machineries to China plunge by 15%yr and 14%yr respectively in December. Weak imports of upstream goods by China do not bode well for China’s export outlook in the months ahead. The impact from weakening external demand is also being felt in domestic production across the region, given the high correlation between production and exports in a number of Asian economies. More than half of the Asian economies we monitor registered manufacturing PMIs below 50 in January.
Although the market’s focus remains on the effect of the global slowdown and US/China tensions on trade, the key determinant of China’s softer growth in 2018 was actually structural change, planned and managed by China’s central government. Put simply, in pursuit of long–term financial stability and sustainable growth, 2017 and 2018 saw China’s economic authorities focus on the quality of growth, particularly its longevity; equitable distribution; and environmental impact, with far ranging implications.
While we cannot ignore the risks apparent in China’s external position, that the pursuit of ‘quality growth’ is at the core of this slowdown and given Chinese authorities’ capacity and willingness to aid momentum, we look to 2019 and 2020 first and foremost with optimism rather than concern, anticipating growth will be sustained around 6%. Below we outline the key effects of the pursuit of ‘quality growth’ across three sectors (trade; investment; and the consumer), and also assess recent changes to market policy to facilitate it.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/2/19/china%20slowdown%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/2/19/china%20slowdown%201.jpg" alt="">
Source: Westpac
The outlook for trade: opportunity close to home
The immediate threat to China from US trade policy is real and pressing. Following the pull-forward of activity to front-run the tariffs’ introduction, export growth is set to weaken in 2019. However, taking a longer view (2020 and beyond), it is important to remember that any negative shock can be offset in time.
The US only receives about 20% of China’s total exports. China therefore has considerable opportunity to grow total exports even if US trade remains under pressure. Further, the Belt and Road initiative provides scope for assembly and low-value-add parts production to be moved to neighbouring economies, where US tariffs do not apply. With these factories still owned by Chinese firms, US’ tariffs can be bypassed while preserving China’s profits. Doing so would have the additional benefit of making room within China’s borders for manufacturing to shift up the technology spectrum, to the nation’s long-term benefit.
This development path should, in time, facilitate the building-up of wealth and consequently discretionary consumption. Regarding consumption, higher demand for overseas travel (tourism and education) will remain a negative for China’s trade position. However, there is prospect for some of this drag to be offset.
As China’s domestic service industries continue to develop and Belt and Road linkages grow, opportunity to diversify China’s export base across services will multiply. Construction, financial services and in-bound travel are all good sectoral examples.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/2/19/china%20trade.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/2/19/china%20trade.jpg" alt="">
Source: Westpac
The outlook for investment: quality to remain key
The shift in policy in favour of quality growth was most clearly evident in the investment detail, as historically-troublesome forms of investment such as poorly-planned infrastructure investment by local government authorities was sharply curtailed. As a consequence, growth in fixed asset investment across the economy slowed to historically weak levels: a low of 5.3%ytd at August and 5.9%yr for 2018 overall, as investment by State-owned Enterprises effectively stalled at 1.9%yr.
With the initial re-orientation of the economy towards quality growth achieved, authorities are increasingly acting to boost momentum. This is happening on two fronts. First, local government authorities are being encouraged to borrow directly from the market to fund new infrastructure – here, a brief RMB1.3trn surge of issuance seen in the September quarter 2018 and the issuance pipeline for 2019 provides a basis for cautious optimism. Secondly, the reserves of banks are being released by cuts to the Reserve Requirement Ratio, –350bps over the past year.
Regarding bank lending, authorities are encouraging banks to focus on up-and-coming industries, where there is maximum long-term benefit for China. However, loan availability for established businesses and the household sector is also being supported.
In stark contrast, opaque elements of the non-bank sector (trust and entrusted loans) remain under pressure from new regulation. Most notably, trust funding from banks has been curtailed by their need to report trust asset exposures. Non-bank funding has also been severely reduced by the banning of guarantees on Wealth Management Products (WMPs) and a need to specify where funds raised from households via WMPs will be invested.
One element of the non-bank sector that is showing promise however is capital market issuance, particularly debt markets, with authorities looking to encourage large firms to preference market issuance over bank loans to fund their capital needs. It should be noted though that many banks are investing in debt market instruments rather than new loans – hence the desire to free-up bank lending for smaller businesses and households has not been a complete success.
In 2019, our core expectation is that growth in fixed asset investment will stabilise at or a little above its end-2018 level. This is low by historical standards, but as the average quality of projects developed should be materially higher than in the past, the dividend to growth should be much improved. Key to investment’s overall performance will be investment by the private sector.
In the near-term, stronger growth in the private sector will require continued active promotion by authorities. Looking further out to 2020 and beyond however, market forces should increasingly take over from the government as the driver and assessor of investment projects. For China and its business community, increased economic and political engagement within Asia offers open–ended opportunity that will drive successive waves of investment on and offshore. As above, both forms of investment hold opportunity for China’s long-term growth and wealth.
The outlook for the consumer: income distribution crucial
In 2018, consumption (by both households and government) was the primary driver of aggregate growth. This result was a continuation of a long-standing trend, although the scale of the acceleration in 2018 was atypical. If 2019’s contribution is to match that of 2018, then the consumer must be on a sure footing.
The cyclical downswing in external demand makes this difficult. Employment growth across both manufacturing and services has clearly been affected by weaker external demand which seems unlikely to improve quickly. There is therefore a pressing need for investment in the domestic economy to spur offsetting growth, and with it job and income creation.
This highlights the need for a further easing of financial conditions, to make funds available to private and public enterprise at low cost, as well as continued encouragement of infrastructure investment by local authorities. Greater education attainment and entrepreneurialism also needs to be fostered, to make ready the workforce for the opportunities to come, while long-term household wealth needs shepherding.
On wealth, housing remains the sector’s primary asset. To preserve affordability and opportunity, house price growth needs to spread across the tiers and be aligned to income growth. To do so, a tight rein over investors will remain necessary to avoid the wealthy profiting from households down the income spectrum.
Further progress is also needed in the management of wealth ex-housing. The changes made to WMPs are a start, but new well-structured product now needs to be developed by the industry and invested in by households for the long term.
Policy and markets
Access to credit the priority
Recent monetary policy easing has had two inter-related targets, promoting lending to small enterprise and reducing funding costs.
Monetary policy has been eased since late last year, with the TMLF (targeted medium-term lending facility) launched on 19 December (with the first auction on 23 January) and given additional re-lending of funds. At the turn of the year, there was also a relaxation of the criteria for banks to enjoy lower reserve ratios (referring to the targeted reserve ratio cut announced back in January 2018). The eligibility for access to various liquidity facilities is mainly linked to the amount of loans extended to small enterprises. These policies apparently aim to encourage and support lending to small enterprises, and are in line with the policy direction expressed in the earlier economic work conference, which continued to use “prudent” to describe monetary policy but dropped “neutral”.
Another policy aim is to reduce funding costs. Most of the liquidity released via the 100bp cut in the Required Reserve Ratio (RRR) in January was to cover maturing MLF (medium-term lending facility) in Q1. Liquidity via a lower RRR is longer lasting, and the cost of funding much lower. Consider the 1yr MLF rate at 3.3% versus the 1.62% interest rate on required reserves; for the CNY1.2trn of MLF replaced, interest cost is reduced by CNY20bn. Provision of more long-term and low-cost liquidity is warranted to encourage lending to support constructive economic activities – in line with the official stance of adopting more counter-cyclical measures to promote growth.
Outright rate cuts?
There is an opinion in the market that the PBoC may need to cut interest rates. At this stage, we still believe that quantitative tools are more likely to be deployed. If there is an interest rate cut, it is more likely to be in bank lending rates than OMO (open market operation) reverse repo rates. First, funding costs can be effectively lowered through the use of different liquidity facilities, without an outright interest rate cut. Second, when it comes to getting OMO rates and bank lending/deposit rates more in line with each other, our interpretation is that the higher bank rates ought to be brought nearer OMO rates. That said, if the benchmark 7-day repo rate falls near the 2% level and stays there sustainably, then the PBoC may need to adjust OMO rates to play catch-up.
De-leveraging goes slow
While the de-leveraging campaign may still be on the agenda, it has been progressing less aggressively since Q4-2018. The shadow banking sector – proxied by the three off-balance sheet items under aggregate financing – shrank at a less rapid pace during Q4-2018 than in earlier quarters, and rebounded in January. The growth in RMB loans has not been quick enough to absorb the loan demand diverted from the shadow banking sector. This may justify a less aggressive de-leveraging campaign as a transitory solution, before credit accessibility is further enhanced via both bank loans and the capital market.
Bond supply versus inflows
An easing monetary policy backdrop and sustained bond inflows are supportive of the bond market. We expect bond yields to consolidate around current levels towards end-Q1 amid potentially heavier supply before facing renewed downward pressure later in the year. There may be heavier cash bond supply in Q1 than usual. First, the special LGB (local government bond) issuance quota for 2019 has been front-loaded, and the full-year quota is also touted to be a 60% increase over last year’s. Gross issuance of special LGB totalled CNY76.9bn in Q1-2018, representing a meagre 4% of 2018 full-year gross issuance. This amount can be easily surpassed in Q1-2019 if primary market activity starts to pick up in late February/early March. Second, the implication from the Central Bank Bills Swap (CBS) is a combination of neutral liquidity impact but with potentially more cash bond supply – though these bonds do not directly compete with CGBs (China Government Bonds).
There is likely to be a further easing in liquidity and credit through the year. We have pencilled in a 100bp RRR cut in each of the quarters from Q2 to Q4 this year. After cash bond supply is absorbed, we expect renewed downward pressure on yields and rates. In addition, bond index inclusion could mean sustained bond inflows. The confirmation of inclusion of Chinese bonds into the Bloomberg Barclays index had been well anticipated. Assuming a total of USD2.5trn of funds track the index, we believe index inclusion will lead to up to USD150bn of potential inflows over a 20-month period, or CNY50bn per month. This equates roughly to the average monthly inflow into CNY bonds in 2018.
CNY: no obvious outflow pressure
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/2/19/CNY.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
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Source: Westpac
We now expect the next US rate hike to come in June instead of March. Hence upward pressure on USD/CNY triggered by USD strength is likely to be delayed. That said, trade relations remain a swing factor, while the impact of tariffs on the regional supply-chain is already evident and the outlook subdued. On balance, USD/CNY is likely to trade in ranges with mild upside risk.
USD/CNY should face strong resistance at the 6.85-6.90 area. Indicators including banks’ FX sales and settlement, PBoC forex purchase, and foreign reserves do not point to obvious outflow pressure. The potential bond inflows triggered by index inclusion is significant compared with other BoP items, and should present a key support to the CNY in the face of our expected USD strength going into the second half of the year.
The USD/CNY forward points have been falling until recently, as US-China interest rates differentials were compressed. The offshore USD/CNH forward points fell alongside, closing the gap with onshore. We view the movement in offshore points as primarily driven by onshore, while there has been a minimal addition to offshore CNH liquidity through the two main channels – stock flows and trade flows. As the onshore-offshore forward point differentials have narrowed and with CNH liquidity limited, CNH forward points may become more sensitive to any change in liquidity condition onshore or offshore.
Elliot Clarke is a senior economist at Westpac and can be <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/news/authors/elliot-clarke/" target="_blank">contacted here.</a>
Frances Cheung is the Head of Macro Strategy Asia at Westpac. 
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

China in 2019 - headwinds and opportunity abound: Westpac

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There were a record numbers of tourists visiting Australia last year, according to CommSec.
However, over the year to December, Australia saw its slowest growth rate in tourist arrivals since February 2012.
Tourist arrivals rose by 0.6 percent to 782,700 in December, a 4.9 percent increase over the year.
Tourist departures also rose in December, by 1.2 percent, to be 8 percent up over the year, the strongest annual growth rate in 19 months.
There were more tourists coming to Australia from Greater China, which incorporates China and Hong Kong (mainland China 122,600; Hong Kong 25,900), than New Zealand (115,600).
The increase made China the largest source of tourists to Australia. The 1,444,900 tourist count was up 4.4 percent over the year.
There was also a record number of Indian tourists to Australia, 358,200, up 18.1 percent.
New Zealand tourists also saw a rise, to $1,384,900, an increase of two percent.
The month of December saw record tourist inflows from Canada.
Heading the other way, there were a record number of Aussies traveling to Samoa, the UK, Germany, Switzerland, Poland and Indonesia.
There were record figures in the number of permanent and long-term arrivals in Australia in December. Arrivals over the year reached a record high 832,560, a 7.1 percent increase, thanks to a further 62,890 entrants in December.
 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Australia sees record number of tourists in 2018, but growth slows to six year low

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Two Australian Chinese-language papers devoted their weekend front pages to an open letter backing exiled billionaire property developer Huang Xiangmo, whose permanent residency was cancelled for reasons including character grounds in early February.
<p data-gtm-vis-recent-on-screen-6236702_632="1550404332083" data-gtm-vis-first-on-screen-6236702_632="1550404332083" data-gtm-vis-total-visible-time-6236702_632="4000" data-gtm-vis-has-fired-6236702_632="1">It says the Morrison government's decision to cancel Mr Huang's residency was outrageous and calls for it to be overturned.
The letter appears to be a paid ad.
The letter, which appeared on the front pages of the Sing Tao Daily and Australian Chinese Daily and inside a third, the Daily Chinese Herald on Saturday.
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They came with 128 community groups protesting the decision to effectively bar Huang from Australia after the Australian Secret Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) advised he was "amenable to conducting acts of foreign interference".
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The letter features a smiling photo of Huang atop an image of the Australian flag.
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<div class="_1lC_G">The letter says Mr Huang is an innocent philanthropist and businessman, and that any member of the Chinese community in Australia could share his fate which sees the media and politicians using information from the security services to demonise Huang.</div>
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Huang has calledAustralia's actions those of a "giant baby".
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Billionaire property developer Huang Xiangmo gets front-page local support against ban

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In the iconic book The Lucky Country, author Donald Horne described Australia as the <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/lookup/Media%20Release10" target="_blank">first suburban nation</a>. Half a century later, the moniker is perhaps truer than ever. We calculate that the <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=eMYpDwAAQBAJ&amp;pg=PT119&amp;dq=Lucky+country+first+suburban+nation&amp;hl=en&amp;sa=X&amp;ved=0ahUKEwjB9Jmhw6_eAhVQEnAKHTOAAqwQ6AEIQDAE#v=onepage&amp;q=Lucky%20country%20first%20suburban%20nation&amp;f=false" target="_blank">five largest metro areas</a> now house 64% of Australia’s population. And the greatest population growth is in peri-urban fringe areas.
<a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/most-new-housing-isnt-high-end-housing/" target="_blank">Most new housing is built in the suburbs</a>, and detached dwellings are a staple of the “Australian Dream” of home ownership. So it should come as no surprise that Australia’s <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/3412.0Main%20Features42016-17" target="_blank">most rapidly growing ethnic group</a>, migrants born in mainland China, is choosing to settle in the suburbs.
<a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1745-5871.12293" target="_blank">Our research</a> finds that the residential patterns of China-born migrants in Australian capital cities are becoming both more diverse and more suburban.
Chinese migration to Australia dates back longer than the Commonwealth itself, with the first wave tied to the 19th-century <a href="https://sydneylivingmuseums.com.au/stories/chinese-goldfields" target="_blank">gold</a> <a href="https://cv.vic.gov.au/stories/immigrants-and-emigrants/many-roads-chinese-on-the-goldfields/" target="_blank">rushes</a>.
In the <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/sitecore/content/Home/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/Publications_Archive/CIB/CIB9697/97cib16" target="_blank">1980s and 1990s</a>, ethnic Chinese from Hong Kong, Taiwan and the “Nanyang” countries of Southeast Asia (e.g. Singapore, Malaysia) came to Australia along with migrants from mostly southern mainland China.
Since 2000, Chinese migration to Australia has been more geographically diverse in its origins. These migrants have also been increasingly advantaged in socio-economic status and <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-we-know-about-why-chinese-students-come-to-australia-to-study-97257" target="_blank">often driven by tertiary education</a>.
Australia is now home to more than <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mediareleasesbytitle/D8CAE4F74B82D446CA258235000F2BDE?OpenDocument" target="_blank">1.2 million people of Chinese ancestry</a>, <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mediareleasesbytitle/D8CAE4F74B82D446CA258235000F2BDE?OpenDocument" target="_blank">41% of them born in mainland China</a>.
<h2>Diversity in dispersal patterns</h2>
Just like most Australians, these China-born migrants are concentrated in major cities. The Chinatowns in cities like <a href="https://theconversation.com/sydneys-chinatown-is-much-more-of-a-modern-bridge-to-asia-than-a-historic-enclave-94482" target="_blank">Sydney</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-the-story-of-fook-shing-colonial-victorias-chinese-detective-94017" target="_blank">Melbourne</a> remain as important cultural icons. Yet the reality is that, just like cities such as New York, Toronto and Vancouver, there has been an obvious trend of China-born migrants dispersing to live in the suburbs.
In our study covering the three census periods from 2001 to 2011, China-born residential patterns became more diverse over time. There has been greater dispersal in the large cities (Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane) and clustering in medium and smaller cities (Adelaide, Perth, Hobart, Darwin and Canberra).
In other words, as the local population of China-born migrants gets larger and more complex, multiple Chinese enclaves emerge. These include Hurstville and Campsie in Sydney, Burwood and Clayton in Melbourne, and Sunnybank and Sunnybank Hills in Brisbane.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/243195/original/file-20181031-76405-30oc7e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/243195/original/file-20181031-76405-30oc7e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> Campsie is one of the Sydney suburbs popular with China-born migrants. <a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sydney-australia-apr-6-2018-vehicle-1094335619?src=7SEue2_X5ygQd-1mlyFrzg-1-0" target="_blank">Victor Wong/Shutterstock</a>
In the smaller capital cities of Adelaide, Hobart, Darwin and Canberra, residential clusters appear to emerge near major universities in inner cities. Here, housing markets and planning initiatives play a strong role as well. Clustering appears mostly in and around inner cities, which may be tied to the construction of high-rise unit blocks.
Interestingly, the diversity of this suburbanisation － particularly in Melbourne and Sydney － runs counter to the narrative of the “straight line” assimilation model. This is based on the idea that migrants and their children simply amalgamate into the population at large. Unlike what such “traditional” models predict, the integration of China-born migrants has been accompanied by concentration growing stronger over time, mainly in the outer suburbs, regardless of their socioeconomic status.
The association among residential improvement, individual advantages and entry into mixed White neighbourhoods may be weakening. This is reflected in the growing tendency towards living in Chinese-dominated communities with the benefits of easy access to Chinese-owned business and services. Formation of ethnic concentrations is voluntary, which runs counter to the idea that a lack of options forces migrants to segregate.
<h2>A new look for suburbia</h2>
With about <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/2024.0Main%20Features22016" target="_blank">half of Australians</a> born overseas or having an overseas-born parent, migration has rendered Australia <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jun/27/australia-reaches-tipping-point-with-quarter-of-population-born-overseas" target="_blank">one of the world’s most diverse countries</a>. While television shows such as Neighbours and Home and Away still <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/07256868.2013.864628" target="_blank">depict suburbia as the preserve of the moneyed Anglo-Australians</a>, the composition of today’s suburbs mirrors the <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/2024.0Main%20Features22016" target="_blank">diversity of the nation</a>. Just remember that next time you are trying to find a good acupuncturist!
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/thomas-sigler-339478">Thomas Sigler</a>, Lecturer in Human Geography, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-queensland-805" target="_blank">The University of Queensland</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jonathan-corcoran-413910" target="_blank">Jonathan Corcoran</a>, Professor, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-queensland-805" target="_blank">The University of Queensland</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/siqin-sisi-wang-562255" target="_blank">Siqin (Sisi) Wang</a>, PhD and Research Assistant, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-queensland-805" target="_blank">The University of Queensland</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/yan-liu-427762">Yan Liu</a>, Associate Professor, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-queensland-805" target="_blank">The University of Queensland</a>.
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/where-are-chinese-migrants-choosing-to-settle-in-australia-look-to-the-suburbs-103920" target="_blank">original article</a>.
Main image photo credit: <a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-view-typical-suburb-australia-641677402?src=VkZnqgoaYk6tWt7fljUTTA-1-2" target="_blank">Jandrie Lombard/Shutterstock</a>
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Where are Chinese migrants settling in Australia?

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
China’s response to growing trade tensions with the United States has been multi- faceted. China’s central government has proposed loosening policy restrictions on infrastructure investment – developments that are typically managed and funded at the local government level. 
The latter could be problematic, as China’s local government debt could be much larger than widely thought – an echo of earlier fears from early 2014.
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COMPLEXITY OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT DEBT MAKES IT HARD TO ASSESS
China’s local government debt levels are at best opaque. According to official data, the total debt of local governments – which comprise a broad range of authorities at provincial, city, county and village/town level – was RMB 18.3 trillion in September 2018, equivalent to around 21% of GDP. 
However, it is likely that this figure does not present the full picture of their debts – which are larger, more complex and risky.
CHINA’S BUDGET IMBALANCE
Local governments struggle to fund their spending.
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Following the 1994 Budget Law, which shifted much of the revenue generation from local governments to Beijing, local governments were forced to generate alternative sources of funding to meet their expenditure requirements. The local government share of fiscal revenue fell from 78% in 1993 to 44% in 1994. Prohibited by this law from issuing bonds or borrowing directly from financial institutions, they established local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) – which secured debt from banks, shadow banks and other sources.
The scale of this debt expanded rapidly in the post-GFC period, as China’s infrastructure program spared the country from the worst of the crisis.
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At the end of 2013, China’s National Audit Office released a detailed review of local government debt – highlighting the broader scale of these liabilities. In addition to the debts that local governments had direct obligations to repay (around RMB 10.9 trillion in mid-2013) – which matched the official debt statistics above – these authorities also had hidden debts (including those debts they guaranteed for LGFVs or public-private partnerships) – which totalled an additional RMB 7.0 trillion. However, this broader estimate of local government debt has not been updated since late 2014.
Fears around this debt largely dissipated since this period, in part because Beijing permitted provincial, municipal and some city governments the authority to issue bonds from mid-2014 (subject to annual caps). Ministry of Finance data suggests that bonds accounted for almost 90% of the reported total debt at the end of 2017. 
However, the bulk of bond purchasers have been banks – at the behest of the central government and regulators – with the returns on these bonds usually unattractive to other investors. Overall, the lower level of concern appears due to hidden debt being overlooked, rather than it being effectively addressed.
In late March 2018, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences estimated that the total off-balance sheet liabilities of LGFVs was in the order of RMB 30 trillion, while a further RMB 10 trillion could be hidden within so-called public-private partnerships (where the “private” partner has often been a state-owned enterprise). 
A recent report by Standard and Poor’s produced a similar range for off-balance sheet debts. These estimates are relatively uncertain, since the sheer number and complexity of LGFV arrangements makes them difficult to track.
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OFF-BALANCE SHEET DEBT
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Growth largely overlooked since 2014
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Combining these estimates of off-balance sheet debts to the officially reported sums suggests that China’s local government debt could be in the range of 55% to 66% of GDP in September 2018. With another 16% of GDP in central government debt, this suggests that China’s total government debt is well above the 60% benchmark that is seen as a prudent limit in advanced economies. It is also above the IMF’s estimate of China’s total government debt – which was around 47% of GDP in 2017.
DEBT RISKS RISING IN CURRENT CLIMATE
A critical problem related to China’s local government debt is the capacity of these authorities to service these liabilities. The total fiscal revenue of local governments was just RMB 9.1 trillion in 2017 (less than one-fifth of the lower bound estimate of total debt).
 With limited ability to collect tax revenue (following the 1994 law change), many local governments have relied on land sales as a key source of income – averaging around 32% of the total in 2017 (behind central government transfers) – albeit the share differs widely across the country.
Land sales are not considered a sustainable long term of revenue, and a fall in sales could result in local governments defaulting on their debts or failing to support distressed LGFVs. This could flow into greater instability in China’s financial sector, particularly if central authorities follow through on public statements and do not provide a bail out.
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LOCAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE (2017)
Land sales contribute too much to funding
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Similarly, increasing infrastructure investment in the short term could mean a large expansion in local government debt, leading to higher interest payments even if revenue levels can be maintained. The mismatch between the short term maturity of many sources of local government debt – such as bank loans and shadow banking products – and longer term return on infrastructure investment leads to greater risk.
CONCLUSIONS
The greater scale of local government debt than is widely acknowledged in official figures highlights the risks associated with infrastructure led stimulus to China’s economy. It also highlights the need to continue reforms to the broader economy – where progress has been disappointing. A key reform that would boost the sustainability of local government revenues would be the implementation of property taxes – proposed for over a decade, but repeatedly delayed. A nationwide tax had been scheduled for introduction in 2019, however this proposal has been delayed with an uncertain start date.
GERARD BURG is senior economist - Asia Group Economics at National Australia Bank.
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Chinese local government debt fears are returning: NAB's Gerard Burg

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EXPERT OBSERVER
China has imposed retaliatory tariffs of between 15% and 25% on US$2.75 billion worth of US imports, including nuts, frozen pork and wine, in response to US import duties on aluminium and steel announced by the Trump administration.
The Australian nut industry, like many other primary industries, has been caught in the middle with collateral damage on this year’s crop as some sellers are no longer able to access this market.
The current trade war between China and the US may provide export opportunities for the Australian industry in the short term, provided that product from overseas is not dumped on the Australian market. In the mid-to longer-term, the industry will continue to develop stronger trade links with China to secure long term markets.
The impact on the US has resulted in additional tariffs of between 15% and 20% for their nut products entering China.
The China Australia Free Trade agreement tariffs of between 10% and 25% on Australian nuts will be completely phased out by January 2019.
China is a major buyer of Australian nuts with over $63 million in sales in 2015-16 (ABS) and solid increases in sales over the past two years.
Tree nuts are the country’s largest horticultural export forming over 50% of horticultural goods sold overseas.
China is the world’s second largest buyer of imported food after the US with over A$130 billion in 2016.
Australia is China’s sixth largest supplier of food with exports of A$5.3 billion and continued solid annual increases in double figures.
The macadamia industry is breaking into China’s growing demand for this nut with demand in 2017 at 50,000 tonnes in shell, or 26% of global demand or more than the entire Australian crop.
By 2020, about 24,000 hectares will be planted to macadamias with kernel production greater than 18,500 tonnes. Export value will exceed $280 million.
The pecan industry in the US is continuing to expand at all time high rates with record planting in southern US. Industry experts are saying plantings are sustainable, and that it will take another 30 years of planting to catch up with global demand.
The Australian industry is also seeing record plantings with new entrants into the market. The export market is chasing large nuts which is limiting the varieties planted. The area under pecans is 1,350 hectares. Production is about 3,000 tonnes in-shell (1,650 tonnes kernel).
The almond industry is forecast to harvest over 82,000 tonnes kernel weight this year which is slightly up on last year’s crop. Late season frosts have been a worry for many growers. Australia is the second largest producer of almonds in the world.
In 2015, the area under production was 31,115 hectares, producing a record crop of 82,509 tonnes.
The walnut industry is expecting a harvest of 13,000 tonnes in line with the previous year. This is a significant increase in production over 2016 of 6,000 tonnes in-shell, with a farm-gate value of $30 million and export value of $15 million.
Approximately 3,600 hectares of mature and developing trees were under cultivation in 2016. This number is expected to rise to more than 4,300 hectares by 2021 as current growers expand their orchards and new growers enter the industry in current and new regions.
Webster Limited is the largest walnut grower, owning or managing more than 3,100 hectares of orchards. When mature, these orchards are expected to produce over 18,000 tonnes in-shell per annum. The pistachio industry is expecting a harvest of 2,300 tonnes which will be a record for the industry. The area under production was 950 hectares in 2015.
Chestnuts have had good growing conditions with a crop of 1,300 tonnes expected which is in line with previous years. In 2016, chestnut production was valued at $8.5 million (LVP). In 2016 there were around 1,300 hectares containing approximately 200,000 chestnut trees. The industry estimates that with more trees planted, production will rise to approximately $9.8 million by 2020. The industry is primarily focused on the domestic market with approximately two% exported, mainly to Asian markets.
Hazelnuts have had a mixed growing season with yields of 210 tonnes expected. In 2016, hazelnut production was valued at $1.7 million (LVP). The industry is set for continued expansion with approximately 200 hectares planted, consisting of around 100,000 trees. The industry estimates hazelnut production in 2021 will be 2,550 tonnes with a value of $22.5 million. The area under production is about 1,400 hectares, including young orchards yet to come into commercial bearing.
New areas of hazelnut plantings have extended into southern New South Wales, eastern Victoria and throughout wider regions of Tasmania.
The Australian nut industry has increased revenue by 250% over the past five years and is predicted to exceed $2 billion by 2030 based on new planting and productivity research investment. The table shown is a summary of the Australian nut industry.
The long-term outlook for the industry is of continued growth with new plantings across all nut types at all-time highs. The increase in research and development dollars from industry and government is assisting in productivity gains and new marketing initiatives are targeting value adding to the raw nut product.
The industry is proactive in improved integrated orchard management techniques which are targeting canopy health, drainage and moisture conservation and plant health.
Established growers are continuing to expand their plantings and new entrants bring scales of economy to the industry.
David Nilon is a Director of Herron Todd White. 
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China-US tariff war impacts Australian nut industry: HTW's David Nilon

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Momentum in China’s housing market has continued to build in recent months. At June, 84% of the 70 cities surveyed were reporting monthly price gains – the strongest outcome since August 2016. At 90%, gains for the established market were broader still – a high back to April 2013.
While the breadth of gains is striking, their quantum remains relatively subdued compared to heights reached in 2015 and 2016.
For new housing, prices in tier 2 are currently up 6.6%yr, while in tier 3 they have risen 6.0%yr. Tier 1 house prices are, in contrast, broadly in line with their year ago levels after annual growth troughed at –1.0% in April.   
For existing housing, very similar outcomes have been seen: prices in tier 1 are unchanged; and in tier 2 and tier 3, they are up 6.3%yr and 3.8%yr respectively.
Taking a look at the monthly growth pulse for new housing, it is evident that momentum is picking up. Average growth has lifted from –0.1% in January to 0.3% in June; while the maximum gain has jumped from 1.2% to 3.3%. 
Authorities are less likely to react to accelerating price growth in this instance given it is being seen in tier 2 and 3, where construction activity and wealth gains are desired, and because (in a macro sense) strength in residential construction is currently necessary to offset weakness in other key sectors – namely utilities and transport.
Growth in housing starts has accelerated ahead of sales, so it is right to expect construction momentum to hold up in the second half of 2018.
That being said, if the pace of sales does not follow, then construction activity growth will again fall back as inventory is worked through.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/8/17/china%201.jpg" alt="">
If authorities decide that a further easing of financing conditions is needed, it will come via another cut to the Reserve Requirement Ratio (we forecast 100bps by year end) and the provision of additional liquidity to interbank markets. By and large, region-specific mortgage restrictions will remain in place.  
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/8/17/china%202.jpg" alt="">
Elliot Clarke is a senior economist at Westpac and can be <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/news/authors/elliot-clarke/" target="_blank">contacted here.</a>
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Perspective on Asia, China housing update July 2018: Elliot Clarke

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The Chinese apartment developer HPG, a subsidiary of Chinese conglomerate Hailiang, has declined to deny a report the Chinese government has sought the divestiture of its One Sydney Park project.
It is a slow selling 400-apartment project spanning 2.1 hectares in Erskineville, six kilometres from the Sydney CBD.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/8/16/Interior%20HPG%202.JPG" alt="">
Chinese companies have been told to relinquish investments outside China, to strengthen its economy as the trade war with the US escalates, the Australian Financial Review advised.
It reported HPG had been "shopping quietly off-market for a partner or a buyer" for its $600 million flagship apartment project, One Sydney Park.
HPG acquired the former Goodman Group industrial site in 2015.
There have been around 50 sales so far at the 205-213 Euston Road site. will end its presence in Australia, which started in 2014.
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<div>HPG declined to comment.</div>
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<div>The paper speculated the Chinese government was tightening up its capital reserves to cushion potential blows to the Chinese economy.</div>
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<div>It follows an earlier round of capital recall in 2017 when Beijing sought an end of powerful Chinese conglomerates including Dalian Wanda with their debt-laden international spending spree.
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<div>HPG reportedly sold about 50 of the 100-unit first stage launch of One Sydney Park in February this year.</div>
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<div><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/8/16/Interior%20HPG%203.JPG" alt=""></div>
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<div>Nearly all the buyers of the project's apartments were intending owner occupiers.</div>
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HPG told to divest One Sydney Park: report

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GUEST OBSERVATION
July 1 marked the 80th anniversary of Australia’s iron ore embargo against Japan. The official reason was resource conservation, but the ban was really driven by a fear of Japan – which had been buying up assets like iron ore and scrap metal – gaining a stronghold in Australia that threatened our sovereignty and security.
Despite the passing of 80 years, Australia is having the same discussions we had back in 1938, only this time about China.
China’s growing commercial influence in Australia and other Asia-Pacific countries has sparked concerns about its political ambitions. Responding to these concerns with economic sanctions is likely only to pander to US desires to curb Chinese influence, placing Australia’s economic future and regional security at risk.
The economic sanctions Japan faced in the 1930s and early 1940s contributed in large part to the outbreak of the Pacific War.
With the recent tit-for-tat US and Chinese trade restrictions, is the world heading down a similar path?
What can we do differently this time around?
Australia must recast its foreign policy with a view to the role it wishes to play in its immediate region. This needs to be a little more adventurous than the 2017 Foreign Policy White Paper.
The Australia of the 1930s faced a region in flux. There were territorial disputes, the waning power of Britain – Australia’s primary ally and protector – and the growing military and commercial weight of regional power Japan, whose intentions remained unclear. Sound familiar?
In early 1937, fears emerged of a world steel shortage. While iron ore restrictions were being introduced elsewhere, the Australian government maintained that it was not a lack of resources that had created a shortage but an inadequate output.
It came as quite a surprise then, in May 1938, when the Australian government announced an embargo on iron ore exports, effective July 1 1938. The government cited a (then) recent and very brief report, compiled by the Commonwealth government geological adviser, which concluded iron ore deposits were much smaller than had been estimated and perhaps would not meet domestic needs.
The embargo included existing agreements with foreign investors, such as the Japanese lease at the Yampi Sound mines in Western Australia, where preparations for the first iron ore extraction were well under way.
The government stressed that the embargo was not due to anti-Japanese sentiment. Nevertheless, this was the conclusion the Japanese government drew as it tried and failed to secure access to the Yampi Sound project.
The size of Australia’s current iron ore exports calls into question the logic of this report and the export ban it led to.
A foreign foothold in Australian territory
Throughout the 1930s, Japan pursued a policy of southward expansion, both territorial and economic in nature. At the centre of this policy was the need for resources to cater for Japan’s rapidly growing population. This involved the “economic penetration” of Far Eastern nations, investing Japanese capital to secure essential goods.
Australia, still recovering from the Great Depression, welcomed these investments.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/223755/original/file-20180619-126534-53upal.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
‘Construct new Japan as Below’. Legend reads: Industrial Centre, Immigration Spheres, Expansion Spheres for White Races, Trade Expansion Spheres, Investment Expansion Spheres. From the Collection of the National Archives of Australia, A601, 402/17/30.
Japan’s visions for territorial expansions became clear in July 1937. Japan – as Australia had long feared – proved itself an aggressor when its army invaded China, signalling the start of the Second Sino-Japanese War.
Australia opted for a diplomatic response to this conflict, remaining impartial and encouraging “cooperation and conciliation” as the solution.
However, Japanese economic investments were being viewed with increasing caution.
Australia’s trade commissioner in Tokyo, Eric E. Longfield Lloyd, reported that Japan’s territorial expansion into China had been aided by a seemingly innocent system of economic penetration throughout the 1920s and ’30s. He feared that allowing the Yampi Sound project to continue, operated as it was by Japanese staff, would result in a “foreign foothold” in Australian territory.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/225423/original/file-20180629-117377-1iiilnu.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
From the collections of the National Archives of Australia, A601, 402/17/30.
Longfield Lloyd pressed for the project’s cancellation “by any means whatsoever”. One proposal was was an export embargo “by declaration of insufficiency”.
Here was the origin of the 1938 iron ore embargo.
Chequebook diplomacy
Much like in 1938, today’s fears about Chinese investments hinge on the question of political influence and security implications.
These concern have led to the limiting of property investments and the banning of foreign political donations.
Further afield, China’s vast infrastructure program, the Belt and Road Initiative, has sparked speculation that the nation is using chequebook diplomacy – and perhaps debt-book diplomacy – to secure economic leverage and gain greater influence in regional and global affairs.
This is of particular concern in Australia’s immediate sphere of influence, Southeast Asia and the South Pacific.
Most recently, the Australian government sought to protect its diplomatic and security interests when it outbid the Chinese telecom giant Huawei for the rights to construct a network of internet cables linking the Solomon Islands to Sydney.
Time for a long-range view of Australia and its foreign policy
The economic pressure exerted on Japan in the 1930s and early 1940s – in which Australia was by no means alone, with the US and Britain leading the charge – deprived the nation of its means of survival. This hastened the campaign of aggressive regional conquest in pursuit of raw materials that eventually led to Pacific War.
To be sure, China’s current economic position makes it unlikely that trade sanctions will lead to armed conflict. But throw in territorial disputes, erratic leadership, the US-China struggle for Pacific dominance, and the future seems a lot less certain.
With all this in mind, the 1938 iron ore embargo does serve as a warning against over-reliance and a blinkered outlook that sees only potential dangers in our immediate region.
Now is the time for Australian to broaden its foreign relations, avoiding the potential downfall of over-reliance on the Chinese market and the US alliance, while building new diplomatic ties.
There is such an opportunity in Australia’s neighbourhood, “that part of the world”, as shadow defence minister Richard Marles recently argued: “in which our influence matters the greatest. What we say and do in the Pacific carries enormous weight.”
Australia must take the initiative in its immediate region to develop varied and mutually beneficial economic, diplomatic and strategic relationships.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/98387/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">In this way, Australia can strengthen its own economy, the economies nearby and its role as a regional leader and collaborator.
Honae Cuffe, PhD Candidate, History, University of Newcastle
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/fears-about-chinas-influence-are-a-rerun-of-attitudes-to-japan-80-years-ago-98387" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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