<p>National diversified developer Fortis has officially launched Crest &amp; Walker, its latest Brisbane apartment development, with construction now underway on the 20-storey Newstead project.</p>

<p>Award-winning builder BINAH has commenced construction on the Bureau^Proberts-designed building, which will deliver a limited collection of 65 two and three-bedroom apartments on Kyabra Street.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373556]</p>

<p>The project marks Fortis' fourth active residential development in Brisbane, following River House, which is nearing completion, alongside projects in New Farm and Hamilton as the national developer continues to expand its South East Queensland pipeline.</p>

<p>Fortis General Manager – Development Queensland Dan Boman said Crest &amp; Walker reflects the developer's long-term commitment to delivering design-led residential projects in Brisbane's established inner-city suburbs.</p>

<p>"We're proud to be strengthening our presence in Brisbane with Crest &amp; Walker, particularly in such a sought-after lifestyle destination as Newstead," Boman said.</p>

<p>"Every Fortis project is shaped by its context, and we approach each one with the respect and care it deserves.</p>

<p>"Our focus is always on creating places that feel connected to their neighbourhood and elevate the everyday experience for residents. Newstead continues to evolve as one of Brisbane's most sought-after urban communities, and Crest &amp; Walker reflects our ambition to contribute meaningfully to that story."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373559]</p>

<p>Positioned between Gasworks Plaza and James Street, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/crest-walker-newstead-12-kyabra-street-newstead-qld-4006">Crest &amp; Walker</a> has been designed as a boutique residential address offering privacy and generous living spaces within one of Brisbane's most established lifestyle precincts.</p>

<p>The building features a contemporary brick podium softened by integrated landscaping, while the upper levels are characterised by restrained architecture and enduring materiality. Interiors have been designed to maximise natural light, acoustic performance and long-term liveability.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373583]</p>

<p>Residences comprise spacious two and three-bedroom floorplans, with two-bedroom apartments priced from $1.55 million and three-bedroom, half-floor residences from $3.95 million.</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a wellness-focused rooftop featuring a swimming pool, sauna, steam room, landscaped dining spaces and outdoor lounge areas overlooking Newstead and the Brisbane CBD.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373571]</p>

<p>Sales are being managed by Slaite Projects, with Fortis expecting strong demand from owner-occupiers seeking a high-quality, design-focused apartment in one of Brisbane's most tightly held inner-city suburbs.</p>

<p>Completion of Crest &amp; Walker is slated for late 2028.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145922]</p>


Joel Robinson

Fortis expands Brisbane pipeline with launch of Crest & Walker in Newstead

<p>The enormity of delivering a true skyscraper in Australia's new development market is often overlooked.</p>

<p>It has taken the best part of a decade since plans for Chevron One were first unveiled, but the 52-storey tower is now complete, with residents collecting their keys and moving into what has become one of the Gold Coast's most recognisable new landmarks.</p>

<p>Rising 127 metres above Chevron Island, Chevron One stands almost twice as high as any other building on the island. Its scale places it alongside the trio of towers at Jewel, arguably the last truly significant addition to the central Gold Coast skyline when they were completed around six years ago.</p>

<p>While there are several developments underway around a similar height to Chevron One, they are more concentrated within clusters of the highest towers in the city. The fact Chevron One sits within a developing precinct, looking back at the other high-rise developments in Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach, makes it a different proposition altogether. It will certainly become a reference point on the Gold Coast skyline.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=68833]</p>

<p>Developer Bensons Property Group is behind the 52-storey tower, which has just shy of 250 apartments, along with an exhaustive list of resident amenity spread across what is the largest development site ever assembled on Chevron Island.</p>

<p>The tower has been the talk of the town for years, says Ray White Projects Gold Coast agent Caitlin Rosenboom, who is selling the remaining apartments.</p>

<p>"People have been watching Chevron One go up for years," Rosenboom says, adding that many prospective buyers have been surprised by the scale of the views once they step inside.</p>

<p>"It's only when they walk through a completed apartment that they truly understand the position of the building," Rosenboom says.</p>

<p>"The views are jaw-dropping. Whether you're looking east over the ocean, across Surfers Paradise, along the river systems or out to the hinterland, every level offers something different but equally impressive."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=360215]</p>

<p>One of Chevron One's defining advantages is its location on the eastern side of Chevron Island on Stanhill Drive, a position which protects the views forever.</p>

<p>"There's only one row of houses between Chevron One and the water, and the height restrictions along the river means views from Chevron One can never be built out,"&nbsp;Rosenboom says.</p>

<p>While new apartment developments continue to emerge across the Gold Coast, Rosenboom says opportunities to secure a completed apartment with this level of outlook are becoming increasingly rare.</p>

<p>"The size of the site is something that would be incredibly difficult to replicate today," she says.</p>

<p>"That's allowed Chevron One to deliver the sort of amenity, open space and resident facilities that very few projects can offer. There are not many completed apartment buildings on the Gold Coast right now that can compete with the combination of scale, quality and amenity."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=68839]</p>

<p>There's around 2,000 sqm of amenity solely for the use of residents of Chevron One. Club One features a uniquely shaped swimming pool that mirrors the footprint of the building itself, set within a extensively landscaped gardens. There's also an indoor pool and spa, a fully equipped gym with a Pilates room, a yoga garden, a bookable private dining area and lounge that can host up to 30 people, and a 24-hour concierge service.</p>

<p>As for the buyers, Rosenboom is fielding enquiry from everywhere: Sydneysiders and Melburnians looking at the new and off-the-plan market following the changes in the Federal Budget, as well as those looking to relocate, through to South East Queenslanders seeking either a permanent home or a weekender bolthole.</p>

<p>"The Gold Coast lifestyle continues to resonate with people relocating from the southern states, and when they see the views and the quality of what's been delivered at Chevron One, it becomes very easy for them to understand the appeal," Rosenboom says.</p>

<p>A diverse mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments remain available, with each offering "something a little different", be it the orientation and views, configuration, or level, to suit a wide variety of buyers.</p>

<p>The remaining apartments are ready to inspect in person, by appointment.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6515]</p>


A decade in the making: Residents to move into Chevron One as construction wraps up

<p>A general rule of thumb in new apartment developments is that the penthouses get the rooftop.</p>

<p>It's a formula that's become commonplace across Australia's apartment market. Residents might have access to a pool, gym or barbecue facilities on a dedicated lower level, but the most desirable outdoor spaces are typically reserved for the highest-priced homes at the top of the building.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Property Group</a> has taken the opposite approach.</p>

<p>Rather than dedicating the rooftop to a handful of buyers, the Gold Coast developer has made it the centrepiece of its Flourish collection, creating expansive shared spaces from the best vantage point in the building.</p>

<p>The philosophy has reached its most ambitious expression at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-palm-beach-1150-1160-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> in Palm Beach, where two rooftop precincts connected by a skybridge will deliver one of the most extensive lifestyle offerings seen in a residential apartment project on the Gold Coast.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374053]</p>

<p>"We're seeing a clear move toward developments that offer more than just an apartment," Sherpa Group founder Christie Leet said.</p>

<p>"People want spaces that support how they actually live, whether that's working from home, staying active, or spending time with family and friends.</p>

<p>"That's where amenity becomes critical. It's not just about what's included, but how those spaces are designed to be used every day."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374052]</p>

<p>The breadth of amenity has already attracted buyers across multiple demographics. Younger first home buyers have been drawn to Soleira's one-bedroom apartments, a product rarely delivered in Palm Beach, while families have responded to practical inclusions such as the shallow children's pool adjoining the main lap pool and the extensive communal recreation areas.</p>

<p>Instead of a single rooftop, Soleira delivers two distinct lifestyle zones.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=372547]</p>

<p>The southern rooftop has been dedicated to wellness, featuring a gym, yoga and Pilates studio, work-from-home facilities, a wellness centre, spa, and hot and cold plunge pools.</p>

<p>The northern rooftop focuses on recreation and entertaining, incorporating a heated resort-style pool, private dining rooms, pizza ovens, barbecues, a golf simulator, children's recreation areas, and what is expected to be the Gold Coast's first rooftop basketball court, which will also double as a squash court.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374054]</p>

<p>Beyond the rooftops, Soleira will introduce 1,500 sqm of curated retail beneath the towers, creating one of Palm Beach's first genuinely mixed-use lifestyle precincts where cafés, restaurants and convenience retail become part of residents' everyday lives.</p>

<p>Sherpa has also retained management rights across the development, allowing it to oversee the long-term operation of the building through a 24-hour concierge model. The developer is also exploring additional revenue streams within the precinct aimed at helping offset ongoing body corporate costs for residents.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370962]</p>

<p>While Soleira is the largest project Sherpa has delivered, the rooftop-first philosophy has been evolving for several years.</p>

<p>It began with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Amargo</a>, the first project released under the Flourish brand. Rather than competing at the ultra-luxury end of the market with oversized half-floor and full-floor residences, Sherpa focused on creating lifestyle-driven apartments supported by resort-style shared spaces.</p>

<p>Amargo introduced more than 800 sqm of rooftop amenity, combining wellness facilities, heated pools, entertaining areas, cabanas, pizza ovens and private dining spaces into what was designed as an extension of residents' homes rather than a facility used only occasionally.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=146527 project_image_fid=366550]</p>

<p>That approach continued with Flourish Oasis, where the same amenity-led philosophy was refined into a more boutique development. Strong demand from Sherpa's growing VIP database saw much of the project sold before it reached the broader market, reinforcing buyer appetite for apartment communities centred around shared lifestyle experiences.</p>

<p>Flourish Amargo is slated for completion mid-way-through next year, with Oasis to be delivered by late 2027. Flourish Soleira is expected to complete in 2030.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]</p>


Sherpa takes amenity to the sky as Flourish Soleira captures booming Palm Beach demand

<p>As apartment living continues to evolve across Sydney's growth corridors, the quality and distribution of shared spaces is increasingly shaping how residents experience home. Rather than functioning as add-ons, amenities are being embedded into the daily rhythm of a building, supporting everything from quiet retreat to social interaction, often within a single vertical community.</p>

<p>At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/aeris-melrose-park-nursery-street-melrose-park-nsw-2114">Aeris</a> in Melrose Park, this approach is resolved through a layered amenity offering that unfolds from ground level through to its upper podium. Developed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sekisui-house-australia">Sekisui House Australia</a> in partnership with Hankyu Hanshin Properties, the project introduces 468 apartments across two towers and a mid-rise building, positioned at the highest point of the broader masterplan.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=359199]</p>

<p>The amenity experience begins at street level, where two courtyards sit within a landscaped setting that connects residents to the wider network of parks and green spaces. These green spaces are not isolated pockets but part of a wider pedestrian network that links Aeris to the surrounding <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/melrose-park-nsw-2114">Melrose Park</a> precinct, including Central Park, future schools, and the Town Centre opening in July 2026. The result is a transition that moves from public to private without abrupt boundaries, allowing residents to pass through shaded, tree-lined environments before reaching the building itself.</p>

<p>Moving upward, the focus shifts to the level five podium, where the primary communal facilities are concentrated. This space brings together a 16-metre swimming pool, outdoor seating areas, and a communal BBQ zone arranged to take advantage of elevated outlooks. Seating is positioned beneath pergolas, creating pockets of shade that extend the usability of the space throughout the day. The pool edge aligns with views toward the wider district, reinforcing the sense of elevation that defines the project’s positioning.</p>

<p>In the adjacent building, this is complemented by quieter, more contemplative spaces, including an outdoor cinema set within the same level. Positioned to operate primarily in the evening, it introduces a different tempo to the shared environment, shifting from daytime activity to after-hours use without requiring separate zones.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360299]</p>

<p>The podium also accommodates an intimate private resident gym. Located on the lower levels, it gives residents convenient access to fitness facilities without leaving the building.</p>

<p>Above, the elevated podium sky deck extends the amenity offering, providing additional open-air spaces with elevated outlooks across the surrounding landscape. While more restrained in program, this upper level reinforces the project’s vertical progression, from ground-level greenery to elevated outlook, allowing residents to move between distinct spatial conditions within a single address.</p>

<p>This distribution of amenities reflects a deliberate response to how residents use space across the day. Sekisui House Australia Sales and Marketing Director Peter Kalaf points to the role these shared areas play in shaping buyer demand. Aeris has been conceived as more than a collection of apartments, with the podium pool, gym and outdoor cinema forming part of a broader lifestyle offering that extends the home beyond each individual residence.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360300]</p>

<p>What distinguishes Aeris is not the inclusion of these elements individually, but how they are arranged in relation to one another. Active, social, and passive spaces are layered vertically rather than separated, allowing residents to choose between them without leaving the building or moving far from their apartment. This proximity supports both routine use, such as a morning swim or evening workout, and more occasional gatherings, whether around the BBQ area or within the cinema setting.</p>

<p>The amenity design also sits within a broader framework of connectivity across Melrose Park. The Melrose Park Town Centre, anchored by Coles and Dan Murphys, features a mix of retail, dining, health and lifestyle offerings, bringing everyday convenience closer to residents. By the end of the year, more than five hectares of parks and open space, equivalent to around seven football fields of green space on residents' doorstep, will further enhance the precinct, allowing the internal facilities at Aeris to operate as an extension of the wider neighbourhood rather than a substitute for it.</p>

<p>Construction at Aeris continues to gather momentum, with ground floor slabs expected to be completed in late 2026 before the first sections of the buildings begin to rise above ground.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=426]</p>


Elevated amenity anchors daily life at Aeris, Melrose Park

<p>Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.</p>

<p>At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.</p>

<p>Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.</p>

<p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FH_1EzB-1vs?si=XScVlP1ERsTDJoME" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p>

<p>"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.</p>

<p>Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.</p>

<p>“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.</p>

<p>He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]</p>

<p>After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.</p>

<p>"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."</p>

<p>Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.</p>

<p>"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]</p>

<p>Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.</p>

<p>"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."</p>

<p>For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.</p>

<p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tsioMLcnjas?si=zq-ys3JuWpfa5hFv" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p>

<p>The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.</p>

<p>"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."</p>

<p>As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.</p>

<p>"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.</p>

<p>"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]</p>

<p>Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.</p>

<p>"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."</p>

<p>That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.</p>

<p>"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]</p>

<p>Aimee says one moment stood out.</p>

<p>"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."</p>

<p>The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.</p>

<p>Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]</p>

<p>ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]</p>

<p>For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.</p>

<p>"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."</p>

<p>For Aimee, the change is measured in time.</p>

<p>“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]</p>

<p>Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.</p>

<p>ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]</p>


From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

China

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<p><span>New dwelling prices are rising again in China, just about..</span></p>
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<p><span><img src="/images/2015/09/21/3tr-chinapm-small.gif" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<div>The Chinese economy - and industrial production in particular - has clearly been slowing, with "official" GDP growth set to fall below 7 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There is some sign of an upturn in credit growth. </div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

New dwelling prices rising in China: Pete Wargent

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<p>Annual net permanent and long term arrivals into Australia increased marginally in September to +267,500, some way up from the nadir of +262,800 in June. </p>
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<br><div>A significant driver of the rebound has been permanent settlers from Asia, of which there were 74,300 over the year to September, or 56.6 per cent of the total. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>By contrast, permanent settlers from New Zealand, and from Europe with their weakened currencies, continued to wane significantly.</div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">8 million &amp; beyond</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The rebalancing quietly continues, with the number of short term departures ticking a notch lower for a third consecutive month in September, while short term arrivals smashed new records by a huge margin at 709,700 in the month (+11.7 per cent over the year).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The chart therefore dovetails into a neat 'pincer' formation, as short term arrivals flew beyond 8 million for the first time, and the pace of increase approaching two decade highs!</div>
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<br><img src="/images/2016/11/15/A5.jpg" alt=""><br><br><div>No surprises for guessing that the increase was driven by the 1.58 million visitors from China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, which even now are still increasing at an annual pace of more than 20 per cent. Extraordinary!</div>
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<br><div>There has also been a huge lift in tourism from the United States, rising at an annual pace of around +18 percent. </div>
<br><div>While tourism is of course a major driver, the role of international education should not be underestimated with a record 506,200 education arrivals over the year to September (+12.7 percent).</div>
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<div>While there are inevitably some back-and-forth trips within these figures, as an indicator this chart matches up quite closely with enrolments data which have also suggested rapid growth in international student numbers, particularly from China and India.</div>
<br><div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
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<div class="separator">Quite a solid set of numbers across the board here, with record short term arrivals and increasing immigration. </div>
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<div class="separator">Overall, this points to annual population growth tracking at around +350,000, but note how population growth is being driven less by 'permanent' arrivals and more by those arriving on other types of visa. </div>
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<div class="post-footer">
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Immigration turns up a notch: Pete Wargent

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<div>Earlier this year I wrote about the extent to which Chinese investment in Australian real estate has mushroomed over the past few years.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Unfortunately the Foreign Investment Review Board is not due to release its 2015 Annual Report for some time, and furthermore not all states release full disclosure of foreign land ownership.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>One state which does so is Queensland, and indeed its Annual Report for the 2015 financial year was released only this week.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Foreign Ownership of Land Register (which requires disclose of the ownership of freehold or leasehold land) provided further evidence that Chinese investment in Queensland has absolutely exploded, with the value of annual acqusitions soaring by more than 170 per cent in the space of only two financial years from $323 million to $873 million. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This accounted for a greater value of investment than all five of the other major countries disclosed combined.</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/11/QLD.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div><img src="/images/2015/11/QLD.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Urban focus</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The data shows that while British interests continue to own the greatest land <em><strong>area</strong></em> in Queensland, Chinese investors have been very much focussed on the acquisition of urban land, in particular locations in Brisbane and on the Gold Coast.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed, Chinese investors accounted for a thunderous 63 per cent of foreign interest land acquisitions on the Gold Coast in 2014-15.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Meanwhile, foreign interest land acquisitions in Brisbane for the financial year were overwhelmingly mopped up by investors from China (37 per cent), Singapore (33 per cent), and Hong Kong (8 per cent).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The value of foreign land acquisitions in the financial year away from Brisbane and the Gold Coast was considerably lower.</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/11/QLD2.jpg" target="_blank">Click enlarge</a></div>
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<div><img src="/images/2015/11/QLD2.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<div><span>The interest of Chinese investors in Australian property is set to scale unprecedented heights in 2016, but the impacts of this are not always well understood.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Chinese investment in Queensland explodes: Pete Wargent

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<p><span>The ABS released its </span>Overseas Arrivals &amp; Departures<span> figures for September 2015 which confirmed that net permanent and long-term migration continued to slow to +282,400 on a rolling annual basis, which is now the lowest level since July 2007.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/11/10/Arr1.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/11/10/Arr1.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>With New Zealanders and Europeans having increasingly opted to pursue more appealing or lucrative career and lifestyle choices elsewhere, net immigration into Australia is now overwhelmingly being driven by Asian migrants.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/11/10/Arr6.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/11/10/Arr6.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<div>Indeed while migration from New Zealand continues to slow and British settler numbers are tracking at their lowest level in decades, settlers from China and India have steadily increased in number to their highest level on record.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Later this week the ABS will release the latest Labour Force figures, which will show employment growth of close to +2% for the past year comfortably outpacing the rate of population growth of around +1.4%.<br><br>Meanwhile tourism has become of the fastest growing sectors of the domestic economy. A recent <em>Deloitte Access Economics</em> report noted an existing shortage of 38,000 workers with a projected further 123,000 workers required by the end of the decade, leading inevitably to industry calls for a relaxation of visa rules.</div>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 2 - Record visitors</span></strong></p>
<div>The flip side to the slowing of Australia's economy - and in turn net permanent and long-term immigration - is that the lower dollar has encouraged a record 7.25 million visitors to our shores over the past year, a monster increase of well over 450,000. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>What is more the rolling annual number of short term departures is now in decline for the first time since a temporary blip through the financial crisis, as the weaker dollar encourages more Aussies to holiday at home. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This is one of the many ways in which a weaker currency serves to boost an ailing domestic economy.</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/11/10/Arr2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/10/Arr2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Indeed anyone looking for evidence of how the weaker currency can help to rebalance the economy need look no further than the below chart, which shows the ratio of short-term departures to arrivals shifting into a long, sweeping downtrend.</span></div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/11/10/Arr7.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/11/10/Arr7.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 3 - China explosion</span></strong><br><br>Gosh! The number of visitors from China continues to explode at a breakneck pace being up by an outlandish 27% from September 2014, with more than 1.3 million visitors arriving from China and its provinces over the 12 months to September 2015. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>While the rise and rise of the Chinese middle class and tourism - with its associated surge in spending power - is very much a global trend, Australia has evidently been extremely successful to date in capturing its share.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/10/Arr3-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/10/Arr3-1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>In fact it was announced during the past month that Britain will slash the price of its two year visa for Chinese visitors from <span>£</span>325 to just <span>£</span>85 in a slightly desperate attempt to capture more of this lucrative market.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In a related trend, the lower dollar has also encouraged record education arrivals with a huge surge since 2014 taking rolling annual arrivals to beyond 453,000.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/10/Arr4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/10/Arr4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>This is another trend which is very much skewed towards students of Asian origin and particularly Chinese students, with 2016 set to be the </span>biggest year on record<span> for higher education visas.</span><br><br><span>The student visas boom is very much a capital cities phenomenon, which is one of a multitude of reasons that Australia's capital cities are set to capture an even greater share of population growth over the next decade.</span><br><br><span>With recent changes to rules and regulations in New Zealand having reportedly curbed Chinese interest in the Kiwi property market, the above demographic shifts have potentially significant implications for Australian real estate over the remainder of the decade.</span><br><br><span>Anecdotally there has been a renewed rush of interest in Australian property from would-be Chinese investors.</span><br><br><span>A significant share of new arrivals come to Australia for education but stay for the long term on other substantive visas - it's one the reasons that Chinese investors are so active in targeting Australian property markets.</span>
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<div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Australia capturing Chinese middle class attention: Pete Wargent

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<h3 class="post-title entry-title">GUEST OBSERVER</h3>
<div class="post-header"> </div>
<div id="post-body-5220327253665162227" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Headline immigration slows</span></strong><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong>
</div>
<div>The January <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/3401.0Main+Features1Jan%202016?OpenDocument" target="_blank">Overseas Arrivals &amp; Departures</a> figures revealed that permanent immigration into Australia continued to slow into the beginning of 2016, with a net +268,400 permanent and long term arrivals now tracking more than a third below the peak.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There were some 13,610 permanent departures in January, the highest on record, although ABS research shows that most "permanent" departures actually return to our shores within a year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Nllm0CzUbOg/VtzVN9aLYzI/AAAAAAAAbsQ/j5EQ-HSsAYY/s640/ARR1.jpg" width="640" height="350"></div>
<br><div>The composition of immigrants continues to shift away from New Zealanders and Britons, and towards permanent settlers of Asian origin, now accounting for a record 57.7 per cent share over the past 12 months.</div>
<br><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-1w0a3JXsOt8/VtzVO6qsuFI/AAAAAAAAbsk/Ua4W6MM6LoA/s640/ARR6.jpg" width="640" height="350"><br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Record high 7.5 million arrivals</span></strong><br><br><div>Despite the soft headline figures those hoping for a significant decline in Australian population growth are likely to be disappointed, with the wider picture being that population growth will probably only slow from extremely strong to strong.<br><br>Indeed, after accounting for the rapid growth in student visas, total population growth in Australia is probably already rising again. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In the year to January the number of short term arrivals blazed past 7.5 million for the first time in recording another strong +8.6 per cent rolling annual increase.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The number of short term departures is still creeping up, but a much more sedate pace, implying an exchange rate driven rebalancing. </div>
<br><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-XRjxdNt05RE/VtzVN3S-ucI/AAAAAAAAbsY/SUn_byjPb0I/s640/ARR3.jpg" width="640" height="338"><br><div> </div>
<div>There was a huge increase in the number of holiday makers to Australia in the year to January of +442,000 taking the annualised total up to a fresh high of 3.57 million, while an additional +119,400 folk came to visit friends &amp; family, taking the total for this category up to a record 2.04 million. </div>
<br><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-bqgko3XUhEE/VtzVOrpQBMI/AAAAAAAAbsg/QSKZ6hUP6Gg/s640/ARR5.jpg" width="640" height="348"><br><div> </div>
<div>The key reason that population growth is unlikely to slow is the vast projected boom in international students. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There were some 55,000 education arrivals in January, by a huge margin the biggest January on record, and it seems to be a nailed on certainty that 2016 will be the greatest ever year for the enrolment of international students. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>More relaxed visa rules mean that many thousands of these students will end up becoming permanent residents in time. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-MwGAtOVgnCU/VtzVN5KEkSI/AAAAAAAAbsU/BU61yN7ijtA/s640/ARR2.jpg" width="640" height="346"></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator">Last, but certainly not least, the explosion in visitors from China has virtually torn the roof off, with an astonishing +57.3 per cent increase from January 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-3RkQcEPt8YA/VtzVOttl-yI/AAAAAAAAbsc/JQFSsT-UH4w/s640/ARR4.jpg" width="640" height="348"></div>
<br><div>Naturally the most popular month in the calendar year for Chinese visitors will be February, due to the lunar year. The raw original data show that Chinese visitors in that month have ramped up at an astonishing pace:</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>Feb 2012 - 66,500</strong></div>
<div><strong>Feb 2013 - 110,400</strong></div>
<div><strong>Feb 2014 - 104,400 </strong></div>
<div><strong>Feb 2015 - 164,400</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>It seems likely that Febuary 2016 was another record-breaker, but we'll have to wait another month for the official confirmation of that. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The full suite of figures appear to tie with DIBP forecasts of population growth bottoming out at somewhere close to 300,000 per annum, before increasing strongly over the remainder of the decade.<br><br>It is important to note that most of the population slowdown has been in mining and resources regions - the largest capital cities have barely experienced any slowing at all to date.<br><br>Evidently the composition of immigration moving forward will be very different, with Asia being the key driver of population and tourism growth.<br><br>---<br><br>Chinese iron ore, coke and rebar futures have all hit limit up during today's trade, while crude might even get back to $40.<br><br>Nice to see. A few mining stocks are going ballistic. </div>
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Asian century tees off in Australia: Pete Wargent

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<p>There was a time when the announcement of a $6 billion mine creating 7,300 jobs would have set investors’ pulses racing and their fingers dialing.</p>
<p>If your heart is pounding at the prospect of a property boom around the China Stone coal mine in central Queensland, you haven’t been keeping up with modern trends.</p>
<p>The way mining companies operate these days, it’s possible to have thousands of highly-paid personnel working on a resources project without creating any local real estate demand to speak of.</p>
<p>Last week there was an announcement about the mine planned by Chinese mining company Macmines in the Galilee Basin region near Emerald. It was more of a confirmation than an announcement because, despite many newspapers treating it as new information, the project has been known a long time.</p>
<p>Construction cost $6.7 billion, 3,900 construction jobs, 3,400 operational jobs, $6 billion in royalties to government – it’s all been reported before.</p>
<p>China Stone is one of six mega-mines planned for the Galilee Basin, the others being Carmichael, Alpha, Kevin’s Corner, China First and Galilee South. They add up to $40 billion in investment, tens of thousands of jobs and lots of court time dealing with environmental opposition.</p>
<p>There was a time when this would have meant a property boom in the immediate area, with mining personnel paying huge rents for local houses.</p>
<p>But towns like Moranbah and Chinchilla in Queensland, and Port Hedland and Newman in Western Australia, became victims of their own success. The resources industry rebelled against rents topping $2,000 per week and tin-shed houses fetching over $1 million.</p>
<p>This created the concept that is now the scourge of many rural communities: the FIFO workforce and construction of temporary accommodation camps.</p>
<p>A mega-billion mine with thousands of employees doesn’t add up to a property boom any more. In many recent cases, it has destroyed real estate markets. </p>
<p>Developers have piled in, building lots of new homes in expectation of rich rewards, while the big miners have flown their workers in and out, putting them up in special camps outside the towns that expected to benefit from the influx of workers and money.</p>
<p>Massive vacancies have resulted in the towns of the Surat Basin and the Bowen Basin in Queensland. If developers haven’t done their research, it will happen again in the Galilee Basin.</p>
<p>There are scarcely any benefits to local towns from major mining projects now. Locals don’t even get to apply for jobs in the big mines on their doorsteps, because the workers are recruited elsewhere and flown in.</p>
<p>In the case of the multiple mega mines of the Galilee Basin, there will be economic benefits for nearby regional centres with airports, such as Emerald, if and when one of the mega projects starts construction. </p>
<p>Emerald has been hit by the current downturn in the coal industry, with vacancies around 7% (previously as high as 10%), houses typically taking 5-6 months to sell and discounting close to 20%. The median house price dropped 16% in the past 12 months and is now well below the level of five years ago.</p>
<p>If one of these mines proceeds, there will be a considerable uplift in air and road traffic through Emerald and inevitably some boost to its economy.</p>
<p>Consequently, the property numbers will improve.</p>
<p>But the days when Emerald and nearby coal towns like Moranbah and Dysart boomed, with astronomical prices and rents, are over - until the system changes.</p>
<p>In the current climate, these coal mines represent fools gold for developers and investors.</p>
<p><em>TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Emerald hit by coal downturn, property prices may improve: Terry Ryder

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<p class="legacy">GUEST OBSERVATION</p>
<p>The Australia-China relationship is unravelling at a pace that could not have been contemplated just six months ago.</p>
<p>In recent days, the ABC’s Bill Birtles and the Australian Financial Review’s Mike Smith were <a href="https://theconversation.com/journalists-have-become-diplomatic-pawns-in-chinas-relations-with-the-west-setting-a-worrying-precedent-145749">forced to flee</a> China following intimidation by security agencies and the imposition of an exit ban, later lifted following negotiations led by Australian diplomats.</p>
<p>Chinese media outlets then <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-09/chinese-scholars-have-visas-revoked-as-diplomatic-crisis-grows/12644022">alleged</a> that Australia’s security agencies raided the properties of several Chinese journalists in June in connection with a foreign interference investigation involving NSW MP <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/chinese-media-links-journalist-raids-to-labor-mp-shaoquett-moselmane/news-story/412f77bb439a079a7d0baf86ac63eed3">Shaoquett Moselmane</a>.</p>
<p>With no sign of the political tensions between Australia and China easing, the big danger in all of this is the erosion of the economic and people-to-people ties that were once the glue holding the relationship together.</p>
<p>If this goes, the events of recent days might only be a starting point in a broader bilateral decoupling that offers little prospect for the protection — let alone advancement — of Australia’s national interest.</p>
<p data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props='{"tweetId":"1303571394949652481"}'><strong>Cause for optimism amid declining ties</strong></p>
<p>Political tensions between the two countries <a href="https://www.australiachinarelations.org/content/australias-tilt-china">date back</a> to at least 2017. Apart from a brief “reset” when then-Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull gave an upbeat <a href="https://www.malcolmturnbull.com.au/media/speech-at-the-university-of-new-south-wales-sydney-7-august-2018">speech</a> on China at the University of New South Wales in August 2018, the trajectory of ties at the government level has been downhill since then.</p>
<p>Yet, the economic relationship continued to flourish, with two-way trade <a href="https://www.dfat.gov.au/trade/resources/trade-statistics/Pages/trade-time-series-data">growing</a> from $183.5 billion in 2017 to $251.4 billion in 2019.</p>
<p>And people-to-people ties appeared to offer cause for optimism, too.</p>
<p>The number of Chinese <a href="https://internationaleducation.gov.au/research/International-Student-Data/Pages/default.aspx">students</a> and <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3401.0">tourists</a> arriving in Australia showed few signs of peaking.</p>
<p>Vigorous cooperation was seen in other areas, such as Chinese researchers emerging as Australia’s <a href="https://www.australiachinarelations.org/content/australia-china-science-boom">leading</a> partners in producing scientific and research publications.</p>
<p><strong>The belief ‘black hands’ are now at work</strong></p>
<p>In the background, however, there were signs of worrying developments.</p>
<p>Ten years ago, it wasn’t hard for foreign academics to find Chinese colleagues willing to talk openly about politically sensitive issues in a private setting, or even modestly depart from the Chinese government’s line in a public forum, such as an academic conference.</p>
<p>But in June, Frances Adamson, Australia’s former ambassador to China and now head of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, <a href="https://www.dfat.gov.au/news/speech/frances-adamson-dfat-secretary-50th-episode-australia-world-podcast">reflected</a> that while China has academics who have spent their lives working on and with Australia,</p>
<p><em>when I read now what they say publicly, that nuance that existed before is gone.</em></p>
<p>This unwillingness to depart from the official line stems from the heightened censorship and illiberal turn China has taken in recent years. This has been instigated by the Chinese Communist Party — and in particular, President Xi Jinping — as they have become increasingly paranoid their grip on power is under attack.</p>
<p><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357159/original/file-20200909-20-1xolwi1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></p>
<p><em> <span class="caption">China has become increasingly illiberal and bellicose since Xi came to power.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mark Schiefelbein/AP</span></span></em></p>
<p>A prominent Chinese government <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-extradition-usa/china-tells-us-to-remove-black-hands-from-hong-kong-idUSKCN1UI0QJ">narrative</a> now alleges “black hands” connected to “foreign forces” are at work trying to undermine the country’s leadership.</p>
<p>This sensitivity has been sharpened by US government rhetoric. In July, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo stopped not far short of <a href="https://www.state.gov/communist-china-and-the-free-worlds-future/">declaring</a> a policy of regime change in China, saying</p>
<p><em>We must also engage and empower the Chinese people – a dynamic, freedom-loving people who are completely distinct from the Chinese Communist Party.</em></p>
<p><em>But changing the CCP’s behaviour cannot be the mission of the Chinese people alone. Free nations have to work to defend freedom.</em></p>
<p>While the Australian government has deliberately put distance between itself and the Trump administration, Beijing remains wedded to the idea Australia is a US lackey, despite significant <a href="https://www.australiachinarelations.org/content/australian-policy-prc-it-independent-us%E2%80%99">evidence</a> to the contrary.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>‘Are we actually safe here now?’</strong></p>
<p>Australians appear to have already been caught up in the consequences.</p>
<p>Academic and blogger Yang Hengjun, a China-born Australian citizen, has been detained since January 2019, <a href="http://au.china-embassy.org/eng/sghdxwfb_1/t1761341.htm">accused</a> of “engaging in criminal activities endangering [China’s] national security”.</p>
<p><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357164/original/file-20200909-20-1qkrwi0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></p>
<p><em> <span class="caption">Yang Hengjun has denied Chinese reports he had confessed to espionage.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP</span></span></em></p>
<p>And last month, the Chinese-Australian journalist Cheng Lei was also <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-08/australian-anchor-cheng-lei-china-endanger-national-security/12642596">detained</a> under suspicion of carrying out “criminal activities” endangering China’s national security.</p>
<p>This came just weeks after the Australian government changed its travel risk <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-07/dfat-changes-travel-advice-for-australians-in-china/12431134">advisory</a> to warn Australians might be “arbitrarily detained” in China.</p>
<p>These moves have had a chilling effect on the people-to-people ties that once formed the ballast of China-Australia relations.</p>
<p>PwC’s Asia practice leader, Andrew Parker, <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/australian-journalists-flee-china-as-cheng-lei-is-charged-with-endangering-security/news-story/2b9b2649c70450b5d48c9390d1a3955b">said</a> some in the business community are starting to ask the question, “are we actually safe here now”?</p>
<p><strong>Concerns for Chinese academics in Australia, too</strong></p>
<p>But importantly, not all the developments are one-way.</p>
<p>The ABC has <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-09/chinese-scholars-have-visas-revoked-as-diplomatic-crisis-grows/12644022">reported</a> that two leading Chinese academics in the field of Australian studies were also caught up in the investigation into the alleged Chinese plot to infiltrate the NSW parliament, resulting in their visas being revoked.</p>
<p>One of the academics, Chen Hong, the director of the Australian Studies Centre at East China Normal University, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-09/chinese-scholars-have-visas-revoked-as-diplomatic-crisis-grows/12644022">rejected</a> the allegations.</p>
<p>There were signs before the dramatic developments of this week that some Chinese journalists and academics were becoming wary of engaging with foreigners due to rhetoric directed at China, as well as policy actions taken by Australia.</p>
<p>In one of his last stories for the AFR before leaving China, Smith <a href="https://www.afr.com/world/asia/china-think-tanks-sever-academic-ties-as-hostilities-rise-20200826-p55pmz">reported</a> that Chinese academics had told him they were cutting off communications out of</p>
<p><em>fear they will be accused of being Communist Party infiltrators.</em></p>
<p>Some Chinese observers believe national security concerns are not the only factor in what is unfolding in Australia.</p>
<p>Moselmane’s lawyers are <a href="https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/nsw-mp-shaoquett-moselmane-wants-investigation-after-police-raided-his-home/news-story/7306a6ad90fe1dfd99af4d59655ee82f">seeking an investigation</a> into whether the media were tipped off before the Australian Federal Police raid on his home in June.</p>
<p>This possibility raises questions about whether the source of the alleged leak saw an opportunity for domestic political gain or to push another barrow, such as adding to Australia-China tensions.</p>
<p>At the same time, academics at Australian universities, many of whom were born in China, have been put under the spotlight in News Corp <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/ccp-weaponising-our-research/news-story/0c3fb0cb8a3578296339aca252c42a8c">outlets</a> for allegedly having links to the Chinese government. The fact that none of these academics have to date been identified by Australian law enforcement agencies as having done anything wrong appears to count for little.</p>
<p>It’s becoming clear the fears of being caught up as “<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-08/bill-birtles-mike-smith-evacuated-china-safety-concerns/12638786">pawns in a diplomatic tussle</a>” (as Birtles described it) are real now for journalists, academics and business people — those who used to believe they could continue to work in both countries, without significant concerns about political disputes.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145836/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;"></p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/james-laurenceson-203">James Laurenceson</a>, Director and Professor, Australia-China Relations Institute (ACRI), <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-technology-sydney-936">University of Technology Sydney</a></em></p>
<p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-australia-china-relationship-is-unravelling-faster-than-we-could-have-imagined-145836">original article</a>.</em></p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Why the Australia-China relationship is unravelling faster than we could have imagined

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<p>Mainland China’s rebound accelerates as HSBC Global Research raises GDP growth forecast from 1.7 per cent to 2.4 per cent.</p>
<p>Infrastructure and property investment seem set to be the most important drivers of GDP growth, according to the banking corporation.</p>
<p>Private consumption, however, is likely to continue to lag behind as<span style="font-size: 12.16px;"> demand has yet to pick up. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 12.16px;">"Households facing job-market uncertainty are saving more and likely to stay cautious as virus risks remain", <span>Chief China economist Qu Hongbin reported. </span></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 12.16px;">"We thus expect year-on-year rises in retail sales of only 1.3 per cent in the third-quarter and 6.3 per cent in October-December."</span></p>
<p>Infrastructure investment has recovered sharply, funded by 4.75 trillion renminbi (AUD947 billion) of special government bonds, and is set to grow by 15 per cent compared with a year earlier.</p>
<p>Fuelled by credit availability and a quick recovery in real estate transactions, property investment has experienced a similar rebound.</p>
<p>Hongbin noted the government deficit, 3.3 per cent of GDP in the first half of this year, is likely to increase to 7.7 per cent in the second half.</p>
<p>This will provide strong support for further economic recovery.</p>
<p>The HSBC report noted the banking corporation still expect 7.5 per cent growth next year.</p>
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China 2020 GDP forecast raised to 2.4 per cent: HSBC Global Research

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<p>GUEST OBSERVATION</p>
<p>Only 40 per cent of students in China who previously intended to study overseas still plan to, while just under 50 per cent of those who had studied overseas plan to return to their study after the borders reopen.</p>
<p class="legacy">These are results from our unpublished survey of 1,012 students we conducted in China between June 5 and 15. We asked them whether they would continue with their plan to study abroad post COVID-19. </p>
<p>These findings are not surprising. Due to growing tensions between China and the West – even before COVID-19 – middle-class parents in China had become increasingly concerned about the safety of, and possible discrimination against, their children abroad, including in the US and Australia.</p>
<p>The pandemic seems to have accelerated this trend.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/newsletter"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320030/original/file-20200312-116261-a6ugi0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=90&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2" alt="Sign up to The Conversation" width="100%"></a></p>
<h2>What students say about studying in Australia</h2>
<p>Of the 1,012 students we surveyed, 404 had registered to study abroad in the next three years (in the US, UK, Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand and Singapore) and 608 had been studying overseas (including in Australia, US, UK, Canada, New Zealand and Japan) before COVID-19 .</p>
<p>In the questionnaire, we presented interviewees with considerations and asked them to nominate which ones would influence their decision about whether to study in Australia after COVID-19, as well as in other countries.</p>
<p>The first group (group A) includes 304 students who had studied in Australia but who were not able to return due to travel restrictions.</p>
<p>Of these, 50 per cent were undergraduates, 42 per cent graduates, 5 per cent doctoral students, and 3 per cent vocational education or high school students.</p>
<p>The second group (group B) includes students who had never studied abroad before but had registered their intention to in the next three years, including in Australia, before COVID-19.</p>
<p>The second group also answered Australia-specific questions.</p>
<p>Not many students in either group considered issues such as more expensive air travel, less freedom in China and online lectures as critical factors influencing their decision to study in Australia.</p>
<p>But the two groups reacted to some factors quite differently. The students who had studied in Australia before considered the following factors as more critical to their decision:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>returnees with Australian degrees are not more competitive in China’s job market compared to graduates from top-tier universities in China</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>life is more convenient, safe and easier at home and I don’t want to go abroad to endure the hardship as a foreign student</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>improved political stability and economic prospects in China</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>less of a chance of landing a good job with an Australian degree in China</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>no need to go abroad if lectures are delivered online.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<p>The group of students who hadn’t yet studied in Australia but planned to, considered the following factors as critical:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>media reported cases of Chinese being “discriminated against” or “abused” in Australia</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>deterioration in Sino-Australia relations</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>not many outstanding returnees from Australia are visible in the media to represent the success of Australian education</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Australian universities lowered the entry standard for foreign students due to COVID-19</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Australian degrees are perceived to be less valuable compared to degrees from other English-speaking countries, especially the US and the UK, by HR personnel in China.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2>What the students said</h2>
<p>Not surprisingly, both groups considered the Chinese government’s warnings against visiting, or studying in, Australia important. A decision to study and live abroad is often made by the whole family in China. Official voices weigh significantly in such decisions.</p>
<p>A student who had done some of her master degree in a Melbourne university said:</p>
<p>After the Chinese New Year, Australian borders were closed to Chinese students due to COVID-19. Direct travel was not allowed. So I travelled to Thailand and spent 14 days in a small hotel in Bangkok before I landed in Melbourne. I had to be self-quarantined for 14 days in my rented room.</p>
<p>Then I found all lectures were moved online and the situation of COVID-19 became serious in Melbourne. The PM urged international students to go home. My parents were so worried. They paid for an over-priced air ticket and a quarantine-hotel in Shanghai for me for 14 days before I could go back to my hometown.</p>
<p>When the [Chinese] government announced the travel and study warnings, I couldn’t convince my parents that things aren’t that bad in Australia. They listened to the government and believed the ‘official voices’ rather than their own daughter.</p>
<p>There <a href="/news">have been cases</a> (though isolated ones) of Asians or Chinese people being bullied in Australia due to COVID-19. Unfortunately, social media in China <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/chinese-students-will-not-go-there-beijing-education-agents-warn-australia-20200610-p55151" target="_blank">often distorts such cases</a> and amplifies the (mis)perceptions. And the tensions between China and Australia have enhanced these negative perceptions.</p>
<p>Sending their children abroad was once a privilege for elites with intellectual, economic or political power in China. But this is now quite common among middle-class Chinese families.</p>
<p>Chinese families spend a large amount of money on their children’s education. Better opportunities (either in the host country or on returning home) after study abroad is an underlining reason Chinese families invest in their children.</p>
<p>Australia has attracted many Chinese students in recent decades. But if Chinese students with Australian degrees are less appreciated or less competitive compared to those who study in other countries or in local universities, families will look for other options.</p>
<p>A Chinese student who had been studying at a Sydney university told us:</p>
<p>We are the clients and the degrees are a commodity; we pay for our degrees. What if the commodity loses its value? The clients will surely walk away.</p>
<p>COVID-19 has had a negative impact on the number of Chinese students likely to study in Australia. But the downward trend started way before the pandemic.</p>
<p>Australian universities need to adjust their strategies for a future that will not only deliver value for Chinese students, but also strengthen a positive perception about this value.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/141871/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;"></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/marina-yue-zhang-543587" target="_blank">Marina Yue Zhang</a>, Associate Professor of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/swinburne-university-of-technology-767" target="_blank">Swinburne University of Technology</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/students-in-china-heed-their-governments-warnings-against-studying-in-australia-141871" target="_blank">original article</a>.</p>
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Students in China heed government's warnings against studying in Australia

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>China’s economy contracted by the most since 1992 in the March quarter – as expected – as government coronavirus (COVID-19) containment measures shut down large swathes of the world’s second largest economy.</p>
<p>This week the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated that China’s annual economic growth rate for 2020 would average 1.2 per cent. Should this eventuate, it would be the slowest growth rate since the final year of the Cultural Revolution in 1976, reflecting the huge economic and social toll wrought by the virus.</p>
<p>That said, it appears that some ‘green shoots’ are emerging on China’s supply side. Bloomberg economists estimate that China’s back-to-work rate had climbed to around 95 per cent by April 10 with some coronavirus-enforced restrictions being eased. Data from Bloomberg also shows that larger industrial enterprises – oil refineries, steel mills and construction companies – have mostly resumed operations. In addition, around 85 per cent of small business reported being back at work last week.</p>
<p>And in promising news for Aussie exporters, China’s Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has advised that 85 per cent of housing-related and municipal infrastructure projects - that were delayed due to COVID-19 enforced shutdowns - had resumed construction on April 1.</p>
<p>On Thursday, China’s central bank Governor Yi Gang said, “Chinese economic growth is resilient”. And judging by China’s historic-high total new credit data in March, it appears policymakers are willing to provide solid support to the COVID-19 ravaged economy.</p>
<p>The People’s Bank of China have continued to cut lending rates and reduce funding costs, supporting credit expansion. And in another positive sign, China’s residential home prices lifted in March on the back of pent-up demand following February’s lockdown. On the demand side, international trade data was better-than-expected in March, but that will be short-lived with major trading partners now grappling with their “lockdown recessions.”</p>
<p><strong>What do the figures show?</strong><br>The Chinese economy (GDP) contracted by 9.8 per cent in the March quarter (forecast: -12.0 per cent). GDP contracted at a 6.8 per cent annual rate in the year to March (forecast: -6.5 per cent), following a 6 per cent expansion in the year to December. It was the sharpest contraction in economic activity since at least 1992 when official GDP records began.</p>
<p>Retail sales fell at a 15.8 per cent annual rate (forecast: -10 per cent) after declining at a 20.5 per cent annual rate in the year to January/February. Over the year to March, spending fell the most on restaurants &amp; catering (down 46.8 per cent), clothing (down 34.8 per cent), jewellery (down 30.1 per cent), household electronics (down 29.7 per cent), furniture (down 22.7 per cent) and motor vehicles (down 18.1 per cent). But spending lifted on food (up 19.2 per cent), medicine (up 8 per cent), telecommunications (up 6.5 per cent) and office supplies (up 6.1 per cent).</p>
<p>Industrial production fell at a 1.1 per cent annual rate in March (forecast: -6.2 per cent) after declining at a 13.5 per cent rate in January/February. Over the year to March, production fell the most for manufacturing (down 1.8 per cent), followed by power supply and energy (down 1.6 per cent). But mining was up 4.2 per cent. By industry, auto manufacturing fell by 22.4 per cent, but pharmaceuticals (up 10.4 per cent) and telecommunications (up 9.9 per cent) both rose the most.</p>
<p>Fixed-asset investment fell at a 16.1 per cent annual rate in March (forecast: -15 per cent) after declining at a 24.5 per cent rate in January/February. Over the year to March, investment fell by the most for the private sector (down 18.8 per cent) followed by state-owned enterprises (down 12.8 per cent). By industry, investment by textiles (down 37.1 per cent), general equipment (down 32.1 per cent), and railways and ships (down 31.6 per cent) fell the most. But investment in utilities rose by 2 per cent.</p>
<p>Chinese property investment fell at a 7.7 per cent annual rate over the year to March following a 16.3 per cent contraction over the year to January/February.</p>
<p>The unemployment rate (nationwide survey-based jobless rate) fell from record high of 6.2 per cent in January/February to 5.9 per cent in March.</p>
<p><strong>What are the implications for interest rates and investors?</strong></p>
<p>While China’s economy is expected to bounce-back in the June quarter – supported by a lift in infrastructure spending, lower interest rates and reduced bank borrowing costs – the recovery in 2020 is expected to be modest. In fact, CommBank Group economists are predicting annual growth of just 3 per cent this year as labour market strains hold back consumer spending.</p>
<p>The long road back to recovery is no more evident than in China’s jobs market. A recent study by China’s Peking University shows that the number of new positions on offer shrunk by 27 per cent in the March quarter, led by recruitment cuts among exporters and foreign enterprises. And round 2.3 million people received unemployment insurance in January and February, according to the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security. A Reuters poll of economists estimates that nearly 30 million jobs may be lost in China in 2020, crimping consumer spending.</p>
<p>And on the demand side, external headwinds are intensifying as China’s major trading partners endure deep recessions. Government containment efforts in the US, UK, Europe and Australia to contain the pandemic - including business shutdowns, travel bans and social distancing measures – will continue to adversely impact trade, supply chains and demand for Chinese goods.</p>
<p>The IMF expects the Chinese economy to rebound by 9.2 per cent in 2021. If this forecast is realised or exceeded, Australia’s own road to recovery will be enhanced. But our economic dependence on China is likely to be questioned after we emerge from the crisis.</p>
<p>Preliminary Australian March international trade data is scheduled for Thursday March 23.</p>
<p><strong>RYAN FELSMAN</strong><em> is a Senior Economist at CommSec</em></p>
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