<p>Lendlease’s Barangaroo South precinct is officially complete, marking the culmination of a 15-year urban regeneration project that has revitalised Sydney’s harbourfront.&nbsp;</p>

<p>In 2009, the NSW Government’s Barangaroo Delivery Authority appointed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/lendlease-development">Lendlease</a> as developer to transform what was once an inaccessible container port on the western edge &nbsp;of Sydney’s CBD into one of the city’s most thriving mixed-use destinations. Today, Barangaroo South is home to more than 1,800 residents, 23,000 workers, 95 retailers and welcomes 33,000 visitors each day. The precinct stands as an international benchmark for large-scale urban regeneration.&nbsp;</p>

<p>International Towers Sydney, the three flagship commercial buildings at the centre of &nbsp;Barangaroo South, together with engineered timber buildings Daramu House and &nbsp;International House, attracted major corporate tenants from the outset, including Westpac, &nbsp;PwC and KPMG, who are still there today. These workplaces remain some of the most &nbsp;sought after in Sydney’s CBD with over 95 per cent occupancy– a testament to the appeal of world-class, modern infrastructure alongside the precinct’s dining and entertainment that &nbsp;are a drawcard for businesses.&nbsp;</p>

<p>One Sydney Harbour, the three luxury residential towers designed by world-renowned architect Renzo Piano, has achieved more than $4 billion in sales since its launch in 2019, while setting new Australia property price records. This includes the three-level penthouse that crowns Residences One which sold for more than $141 million in 2019 – the most expensive individual residential property ever sold in Australia. &nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=139801 project_image_fid=349150]</p>

<p>Barangaroo South is also Australia’s first mixed-use carbon-neutral development, an accolade achieved through energy-efficient and innovative infrastructure, including a district cooling plant with a harbour water heat rejection system, a recycled water &nbsp;treatment plant, onsite solar and an embedded electricity network.</p>

<p>The precinct has maintained its Climate Active Carbon Neutral certification since 2019, affirming its &nbsp;reputation as the gold standard in large scale, sustainable urban renewal. Additionally, its &nbsp;world leadership status has been validated by the Green Building Council of Australia’s &nbsp;6 Star Green Star Communities recertification (Pilot v.2).</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=139801 project_image_fid=349157]</p>

<p>First Nations cultural values were embedded throughout the planning and delivery of the project. The precinct honours Barangaroo, a prominent First Nations woman, through its &nbsp;name. Public art, street names, and design elements across the precinct reflect and &nbsp;celebrate First Nations cultures and connections to Country.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The project's completion positions Barangaroo South as a legacy urban transformation delivered through long-term partnerships and world-leading urban regeneration and placemaking capabilities. &nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=139801 project_image_fid=349154]</p>

<p>Tony Lombardo, Group CEO Lendlease, said&nbsp;Barangaroo South represents one of the most significant urban regeneration projects in Australia.</p>

<p>"[It] demonstrates what can be achieved through an ambitious vision, innovative placemaking, long-term commitment and strong partnerships. The precinct has changed the face of Sydney's waterfront, established new benchmarks &nbsp;for sustainable development, and provided a model for urban regeneration that continues &nbsp;to inform our approach to creating places that deliver long-lasting value.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>Tom Mackellar, CEO Development Lendlease, said&nbsp;Barangaroo South has reconnected the city to its harbour in a way that seemed unimaginable 15 years ago and turned it into a thriving precinct where people can live, work and gather on the harbour’s edge.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“This precinct is the result of countless contributions, led by the NSW Government who set the ambition, supported by investment partners who believed in Lendlease’s vision, imagined by architects and designers, shaped by consultants and artists, and brought to &nbsp;life by our dedicated construction teams. &nbsp;</p>

<p>“What we’ve created here is more than buildings – it’s the best of placemaking, sustainability, arts and culture and quality design. Barangaroo South has become an integral part of Sydney that will serve our city and economy for generations.”</p>


Staff Writer

Barangaroo South’s 15-year transformation of  Sydney’s waterfront officially complete

<p>CBE Asia Pacific has lodged plans for a prominent corner site in Fitzroy North, with a proposal that integrates state-significant affordable housing alongside heritage adaptation and new retail.</p>

<p>The application covers a consolidated 2,024 sqm parcel at 201–215 Queens Parade and 6–12 Dummett Crescent. The site includes the heritage-listed Former Clifton Motor Hill Garage, fronting Queens Parade, and vacant land to the rear abutting Dummett Crescent.</p>

<p>According to planning documents prepared by proUrban, the proposal seeks approval for a 12-storey residential building comprising 98 apartments, including a component of affordable housing, over a ground floor retail podium integrated within the heritage structure. Approximately 780 sqm of retail space will occupy the ground floor, while residents will have access to over 850 sqm of communal amenity.</p>

<p>The built form presents as two connected volumes: a 12-storey tower addressing Dummett Crescent and a five-storey volume fronting Queens Parade, the latter consistent with a separate Heritage Victoria permit granted in 2023. The tower reaches a maximum height of 38.26 metres, with upper-level setbacks of 14 metres from the western boundary to reduce visual bulk. A 1.5-metre footpath widening is proposed to Dummett Crescent Lane.</p>

<p>Parking is provided across four basement levels, accessed via Dummett Crescent, with a total of 142 car spaces and 143 bicycle spaces.</p>

<p>The architectural response by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cht-architects">CHT Architects</a> is framed by a need to reconcile new density with a sensitive heritage overlay. The Former Clifton Motor Hill Garage, identified as a place of State heritage significance, will retain its key façades, with demolition and reconstruction limited to approved elements.</p>

<p>As noted in the Heritage Impact Assessment, the proposal remains consistent with the Heritage Victoria permit, which allows "partial demolition, reconstruction and new works, involving the construction of a five-storey multi-use development and three basement levels".</p>

<p>Affordable housing has been embedded into the proposal under Clause 53.23, with specific apartment allocations aimed at enhancing housing diversity within the Queens Parade Activity Centre.</p>

<p>"The proposal is generally consistent with the relevant policy objectives and the intent of the Yarra Planning Scheme," proUrban states in its planning assessment, citing its alignment with strategic documents including Plan Melbourne and Victoria’s Housing Statement.</p>

<p>CHT Architects' plans emphasise a tiered design that acknowledges the site's varied interfaces—from the elevated Heidelberg Road ramp reserve to the recently built Clifton Views aged care facility to the north-east.</p>

<p>CBE Asia Pacific has not been previously active in this precinct, but the project joins a wave of higher-density residential proposals along the Queens Parade corridor, spurred by Melbourne’s broader push to increase affordable housing in well-connected inner-urban areas.</p>

<p>The site benefits from direct access to the Queens Parade tram corridor and proximity to Clifton Hill Station (approximately 200 metres), as well as green open spaces including Mayors Park and Raines Reserve. Clifton Hill Primary School and the Queens Parade retail village lie within walking distance.</p>


First look: CBE Asia Pacific plans 100-apartment Jenkin House on Queens Parade, Fitzroy North

<p>ALT Pasta, one of Melbourne’s most beloved inner-city pasta bars, has been confirmed as one of the first tenancies for the highly anticipated <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/comme-prahran-182-194-commercial-road-prahran-vic-3181">Comme Prahran</a> development, marking an exciting next chapter for the cult favourite as it prepares to expand into the heart of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/prahran-vic-3181">Prahran</a>.</p>

<p>Fresh off being named National Best Italian Restaurant at the 2025 Restaurant &amp; Catering Hostplus Awards for Excellence, ALT continues to solidify its reputation as a quietly confident leader in Melbourne’s dining scene. Lauded for its reinterpretation of Italian pasta through a Korean and Japanese lens, the restaurant has grown into a staple since opening three years ago, and its new Prahran outpost will only deepen its local impact.</p>

<p>“From the very beginning, ALT has been about respect - for tradition, for ingredients, and for the process,” shares Mino Han, ALT’s founder, a Korean-Australian chef whose vision is shaped by cultural duality and craftsmanship.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“We’re not trying to reinvent the wheel, just make something beautifully familiar, feel quietly special,” added Han.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108413 project_image_fid=353585]</p>

<p>Positioned at the entrance to Comme Prahran and directly opposite the iconic Prahran Market, the new venue will celebrate the interplay between casual comfort and elevated detail. Designed in collaboration with Rooftop Architecture, the same team behind ALT’s flagship city location, the space will mirror the neighbourhood’s laid-back energy while staying true to the brand’s understated refinement.</p>

<p>Diners can expect a frequently changing menu that takes advantage of the market’s daily produce, along with set menu offerings exclusive to this location. A distinctive chef’s table and open kitchen format are also in the works, allowing guests to experience ALT’s signature intimacy and transparency in a new light.</p>

<p>ALT Prahran won’t replace the original venue; rather, it complements it.</p>

<p>“Our city site is like our heritage bottle; it’ll age gracefully. Prahran is where we’ll play, explore new ingredients, and bring something special to the community,” Mino notes.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108413 project_image_fid=353584]</p>

<p>For Comme Prahran, a boutique development by Leeka that blends heritage with multi-dimensional wellness, ALT Pasta’s arrival signals a meaningful addition to its vision of cultural connection, food-first living, and local engagement.</p>

<p>“Being part of Comme is more than just opening a second venue. It’s about contributing to a neighbourhood with character, history, and a strong sense of community. That’s something we deeply relate to,” says Mino.</p>

<p>Sustainability and cultural identity are deeply embedded in the ethos of ALT. From ingredient sourcing to interior design, the new location will reflect both environmental mindfulness and a spirit of inclusion, embodying the values of Melbourne’s diverse, forward-thinking culinary scene.</p>

<p>Comme Prahran is scheduled for completion in late 2027, with ALT Pasta expected to be among the first tenancies to open its doors shortly after.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108413]</p>


National best Italian restaurant ALT Pasta to open at Comme Prahran, bringing refined familiarity to Melbourne’s culinary heart

National BEST Italian restaurant ALT Pasta to open at Comme Prahran

<p><span id="cke_bm_2771S" style="display: none;">&nbsp;</span>Boutique development and construction firm Ryser has filed plans for its debut apartment building.</p>

<p>Ryser, founded by Jonthan Ryan and Wil Prosser, has sought to develop <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/sorelle-4a-fern-place-woollahra-nsw-2025">Sorelle</a>, 28 new apartments at 4a Fern Place, Woollahra.</p>

<p>The&nbsp;750 sqm site on the edge of Bondi Junction falls within the Grafton Precinct Heritage Conservation Area, though it is currently vacant and not identified as a contributory item.&nbsp;</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a> has been commissioned to design Sorelle, creating an eight and a nine-storey building with six apartments dedicated to affordable housing to support essential workers&nbsp;under the NSW Government’s low and mid-rise housing policy.</p>

<p>The dwelling mix includes 12 one-bedroom units, six one-bedroom affordable units, six two-bedroom units, and four three-bedroom residences.<img alt="4A Fern Place, Woollahra." data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="86626941-772d-49c5-8d31-a8e42f44cdcc" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Fern%20bldg%20st.png?VersionId=tWIzXYX9gD60nP1L3..Z0BFbY5mafb36" /></p>

<p>According to the planning documents submitted to the Woollahra Council, the development responds to the complex interface of heritage fabric and urban infrastructure with two mid-rise residential buildings oriented to the north and designed to capitalise on sweeping views over Sydney Harbour and Bellevue Hill.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“The proposal aims to hero some of the brick detailing of Woollahra, celebrating the existing datums of Fern Place, whilst embracing the strong verticals of the Holy Cross Church and Bondi Junction with a nod to the historic iron works and iron rich soils of the area,” Woods Bagot noted in their Design Report.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Only three car parking spaces are proposed, alongside 33 bicycle bays, in a move that leverages the site's proximity to Bondi Junction train station, just 400 metres away.</p>

<p>Architecturally, the material palette incorporates Corten steel and face brickwork to reference the site’s industrial past and local geological character. Landscaping features include a communal garden bridging the two buildings at ground level, landscaped setbacks to protect visual privacy, and a small corner park intended to soften the public interface.</p>

<p><img alt="4A Fern Place, Woollahra." data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="f71766d6-aa14-44df-9bc5-42f91890fd4a" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Fern%20bldg%20rear.png?VersionId=uh7u1rJ6NJF5OqyRs9iNJcy6R9ssgaXU" /></p>

<p>Ryser said Sorelle "brings together the best of both worlds, the intimacy of village life with the amenity and luxury of modern design."</p>

<p>The developer said the project marks the first of three developments they will be announcing shortly, a key step in their&nbsp;evolution as a builder-developer delivering meaningful, high quality urban outcomes across Sydney.</p>

<p>The expectation is the Woollahra LGA will become popular for developers with the signal from the NSW Government they will deliver&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/sydney-nsw" target="">Sydney</a>’s first new heavy rail station in more than a decade – enabling up to 10,000 new homes by rezoning land around&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/woollahra-nsw-2025" target="">Woollahra</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/edgecliff-nsw-2027" target="">Edgecliff</a>&nbsp;stations.</p>

<p><em>Read more:&nbsp;</em><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/next-stop-woollahra-train-station-delivering-up-to-10-000-new-homes-in-the-heart-of-sydney"><em>Next stop Woollahra train station - delivering up to 10,000 new homes in the heart of Sydney<span id="cke_bm_2771E" style="display: none;">&nbsp;</span></em></a></p>


Joel Robinson

First look: Ryser plans two apartment buildings on Woollahra, Bondi Junction border

<p>ASX-listed developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/cedar-woods" target="">Cedar Woods</a> didn’t miss a beat when the opportunity arose to acquire a prime residential development site in one of Perth’s most popular suburbs. In 2019, the developer secured the former Wembley TAFE site, a 1.4-hectare parcel perfectly positioned on the western edge of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/subiaco-wa-6008" target="">Subiaco</a>’s vibrant centre.</p>

<p>The first stage, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/incontro-subiaco-133-salvado-road-subiaco-wa-6008">Incontro Townhomes</a>, delivered 41 contemporary homes that embrace the suburb’s unique blend of nature and urban energy. Now, Incontro Apartments continues that story, offering a collection of new residences in a market limited with new residential stock. The rarity of a development in such a prime pocket hasn't been lost on buyers, with more than 60 per cent already sold in the early stages of construction.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317909]</p>

<p>Set on the tree-lined Bishop Street, in a quiet pocket within Western Subiaco, Incontro Apartments offers convenient access to several lush parks and recreation spots.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Within the estate is Incontro’s Little Green, a linear park that connects the Incontro townhome precinct with the future apartment building. This peaceful stretch of landscaped parkland features shaded seating and communal spaces for residents to relax and interact close to home.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Less than 400 metres away is find Henderson Park, a perfect spot for morning walks, weekend picnics or casual exercise. Neighbouring Henderson Park is Mabel Talbot Park, home to Jolimont Lake and a playground, while just a little further lies Pat Goodridge Park, offering a large sports field and another playground.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=325604]</p>

<p>For something closer to home, Subiaco Common provides a peaceful green retreat right on your doorstep - ideal for reading under the trees, walking the dog or relaxing with friends.</p>

<p>Beyond the parks and open spaces, Incontro residents are just moments from everything that makes Subiaco such an enviable place to live.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Down the road is Bishop Street Café, a local favourite for a morning caffeine fix. Subiaco’s Rokeby Road and Hay Street are lined with retailers, cafés, vibrant bars and some of Perth’s most loved dining spots, from long lunches at Refuge Small Bar or Juanita’s, to weekend brunch at Community Coffee Co. or Boucla Café. Add to that a strong sense of local community, regular markets, and the energy of Subiaco Square, and it’s easy to see why Subiaco continues to be one of Perth’s most liveable and in-demand suburbs.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=325605]</p>

<p>Construction of Incontro Apartments is now underway by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/emco-building">EMCO Building</a>. With completion expected in mid-2027, buyers have the chance to join a thriving Subiaco community in the not-too-distant future. &nbsp;</p>

<p>One-bedroom apartments are now sold out, with only a selection of two-bedroom apartments and just three three-bedroom residences remaining. Each features generous layouts, stylish finishes and private balconies to enjoy the leafy outlook that makes this Subiaco address so special. Prices start from $925,000*.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108869]</p>


Over 60 per cent sold as Incontro Apartments captures Subiaco’s leafy appeal

China

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<p><span>New dwelling prices are rising again in China, just about..</span></p>
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<div>The Chinese economy - and industrial production in particular - has clearly been slowing, with "official" GDP growth set to fall below 7 per cent.</div>
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<div>There is some sign of an upturn in credit growth. </div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

New dwelling prices rising in China: Pete Wargent

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<p>Annual net permanent and long term arrivals into Australia increased marginally in September to +267,500, some way up from the nadir of +262,800 in June. </p>
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<br><div>A significant driver of the rebound has been permanent settlers from Asia, of which there were 74,300 over the year to September, or 56.6 per cent of the total. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>By contrast, permanent settlers from New Zealand, and from Europe with their weakened currencies, continued to wane significantly.</div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">8 million &amp; beyond</span></strong></div>
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<div>The rebalancing quietly continues, with the number of short term departures ticking a notch lower for a third consecutive month in September, while short term arrivals smashed new records by a huge margin at 709,700 in the month (+11.7 per cent over the year).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The chart therefore dovetails into a neat 'pincer' formation, as short term arrivals flew beyond 8 million for the first time, and the pace of increase approaching two decade highs!</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2016/11/15/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><img src="/images/2016/11/15/A5.jpg" alt=""><br><br><div>No surprises for guessing that the increase was driven by the 1.58 million visitors from China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, which even now are still increasing at an annual pace of more than 20 per cent. Extraordinary!</div>
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<br><div>There has also been a huge lift in tourism from the United States, rising at an annual pace of around +18 percent. </div>
<br><div>While tourism is of course a major driver, the role of international education should not be underestimated with a record 506,200 education arrivals over the year to September (+12.7 percent).</div>
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<div>While there are inevitably some back-and-forth trips within these figures, as an indicator this chart matches up quite closely with enrolments data which have also suggested rapid growth in international student numbers, particularly from China and India.</div>
<br><div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
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<div class="separator">Quite a solid set of numbers across the board here, with record short term arrivals and increasing immigration. </div>
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<div class="separator">Overall, this points to annual population growth tracking at around +350,000, but note how population growth is being driven less by 'permanent' arrivals and more by those arriving on other types of visa. </div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Immigration turns up a notch: Pete Wargent

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<div>Earlier this year I wrote about the extent to which Chinese investment in Australian real estate has mushroomed over the past few years.</div>
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<div>Unfortunately the Foreign Investment Review Board is not due to release its 2015 Annual Report for some time, and furthermore not all states release full disclosure of foreign land ownership.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>One state which does so is Queensland, and indeed its Annual Report for the 2015 financial year was released only this week.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Foreign Ownership of Land Register (which requires disclose of the ownership of freehold or leasehold land) provided further evidence that Chinese investment in Queensland has absolutely exploded, with the value of annual acqusitions soaring by more than 170 per cent in the space of only two financial years from $323 million to $873 million. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This accounted for a greater value of investment than all five of the other major countries disclosed combined.</div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Urban focus</span></strong></div>
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<div>The data shows that while British interests continue to own the greatest land <em><strong>area</strong></em> in Queensland, Chinese investors have been very much focussed on the acquisition of urban land, in particular locations in Brisbane and on the Gold Coast.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed, Chinese investors accounted for a thunderous 63 per cent of foreign interest land acquisitions on the Gold Coast in 2014-15.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Meanwhile, foreign interest land acquisitions in Brisbane for the financial year were overwhelmingly mopped up by investors from China (37 per cent), Singapore (33 per cent), and Hong Kong (8 per cent).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The value of foreign land acquisitions in the financial year away from Brisbane and the Gold Coast was considerably lower.</div>
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<div><span>The interest of Chinese investors in Australian property is set to scale unprecedented heights in 2016, but the impacts of this are not always well understood.</span></div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Chinese investment in Queensland explodes: Pete Wargent

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<p><span>The ABS released its </span>Overseas Arrivals &amp; Departures<span> figures for September 2015 which confirmed that net permanent and long-term migration continued to slow to +282,400 on a rolling annual basis, which is now the lowest level since July 2007.</span></p>
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<p><span>With New Zealanders and Europeans having increasingly opted to pursue more appealing or lucrative career and lifestyle choices elsewhere, net immigration into Australia is now overwhelmingly being driven by Asian migrants.</span></p>
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<div>Indeed while migration from New Zealand continues to slow and British settler numbers are tracking at their lowest level in decades, settlers from China and India have steadily increased in number to their highest level on record.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Later this week the ABS will release the latest Labour Force figures, which will show employment growth of close to +2% for the past year comfortably outpacing the rate of population growth of around +1.4%.<br><br>Meanwhile tourism has become of the fastest growing sectors of the domestic economy. A recent <em>Deloitte Access Economics</em> report noted an existing shortage of 38,000 workers with a projected further 123,000 workers required by the end of the decade, leading inevitably to industry calls for a relaxation of visa rules.</div>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 2 - Record visitors</span></strong></p>
<div>The flip side to the slowing of Australia's economy - and in turn net permanent and long-term immigration - is that the lower dollar has encouraged a record 7.25 million visitors to our shores over the past year, a monster increase of well over 450,000. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>What is more the rolling annual number of short term departures is now in decline for the first time since a temporary blip through the financial crisis, as the weaker dollar encourages more Aussies to holiday at home. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This is one of the many ways in which a weaker currency serves to boost an ailing domestic economy.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/10/Arr2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/10/Arr2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Indeed anyone looking for evidence of how the weaker currency can help to rebalance the economy need look no further than the below chart, which shows the ratio of short-term departures to arrivals shifting into a long, sweeping downtrend.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/10/Arr7.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/11/10/Arr7.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 3 - China explosion</span></strong><br><br>Gosh! The number of visitors from China continues to explode at a breakneck pace being up by an outlandish 27% from September 2014, with more than 1.3 million visitors arriving from China and its provinces over the 12 months to September 2015. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>While the rise and rise of the Chinese middle class and tourism - with its associated surge in spending power - is very much a global trend, Australia has evidently been extremely successful to date in capturing its share.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/10/Arr3-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/10/Arr3-1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>In fact it was announced during the past month that Britain will slash the price of its two year visa for Chinese visitors from <span>£</span>325 to just <span>£</span>85 in a slightly desperate attempt to capture more of this lucrative market.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In a related trend, the lower dollar has also encouraged record education arrivals with a huge surge since 2014 taking rolling annual arrivals to beyond 453,000.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/10/Arr4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/10/Arr4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>This is another trend which is very much skewed towards students of Asian origin and particularly Chinese students, with 2016 set to be the </span>biggest year on record<span> for higher education visas.</span><br><br><span>The student visas boom is very much a capital cities phenomenon, which is one of a multitude of reasons that Australia's capital cities are set to capture an even greater share of population growth over the next decade.</span><br><br><span>With recent changes to rules and regulations in New Zealand having reportedly curbed Chinese interest in the Kiwi property market, the above demographic shifts have potentially significant implications for Australian real estate over the remainder of the decade.</span><br><br><span>Anecdotally there has been a renewed rush of interest in Australian property from would-be Chinese investors.</span><br><br><span>A significant share of new arrivals come to Australia for education but stay for the long term on other substantive visas - it's one the reasons that Chinese investors are so active in targeting Australian property markets.</span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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Australia capturing Chinese middle class attention: Pete Wargent

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<h3 class="post-title entry-title">GUEST OBSERVER</h3>
<div class="post-header"> </div>
<div id="post-body-5220327253665162227" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Headline immigration slows</span></strong><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong>
</div>
<div>The January <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/3401.0Main+Features1Jan%202016?OpenDocument" target="_blank">Overseas Arrivals &amp; Departures</a> figures revealed that permanent immigration into Australia continued to slow into the beginning of 2016, with a net +268,400 permanent and long term arrivals now tracking more than a third below the peak.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There were some 13,610 permanent departures in January, the highest on record, although ABS research shows that most "permanent" departures actually return to our shores within a year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Nllm0CzUbOg/VtzVN9aLYzI/AAAAAAAAbsQ/j5EQ-HSsAYY/s640/ARR1.jpg" width="640" height="350"></div>
<br><div>The composition of immigrants continues to shift away from New Zealanders and Britons, and towards permanent settlers of Asian origin, now accounting for a record 57.7 per cent share over the past 12 months.</div>
<br><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-1w0a3JXsOt8/VtzVO6qsuFI/AAAAAAAAbsk/Ua4W6MM6LoA/s640/ARR6.jpg" width="640" height="350"><br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Record high 7.5 million arrivals</span></strong><br><br><div>Despite the soft headline figures those hoping for a significant decline in Australian population growth are likely to be disappointed, with the wider picture being that population growth will probably only slow from extremely strong to strong.<br><br>Indeed, after accounting for the rapid growth in student visas, total population growth in Australia is probably already rising again. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In the year to January the number of short term arrivals blazed past 7.5 million for the first time in recording another strong +8.6 per cent rolling annual increase.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The number of short term departures is still creeping up, but a much more sedate pace, implying an exchange rate driven rebalancing. </div>
<br><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-XRjxdNt05RE/VtzVN3S-ucI/AAAAAAAAbsY/SUn_byjPb0I/s640/ARR3.jpg" width="640" height="338"><br><div> </div>
<div>There was a huge increase in the number of holiday makers to Australia in the year to January of +442,000 taking the annualised total up to a fresh high of 3.57 million, while an additional +119,400 folk came to visit friends &amp; family, taking the total for this category up to a record 2.04 million. </div>
<br><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-bqgko3XUhEE/VtzVOrpQBMI/AAAAAAAAbsg/QSKZ6hUP6Gg/s640/ARR5.jpg" width="640" height="348"><br><div> </div>
<div>The key reason that population growth is unlikely to slow is the vast projected boom in international students. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There were some 55,000 education arrivals in January, by a huge margin the biggest January on record, and it seems to be a nailed on certainty that 2016 will be the greatest ever year for the enrolment of international students. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>More relaxed visa rules mean that many thousands of these students will end up becoming permanent residents in time. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-MwGAtOVgnCU/VtzVN5KEkSI/AAAAAAAAbsU/BU61yN7ijtA/s640/ARR2.jpg" width="640" height="346"></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator">Last, but certainly not least, the explosion in visitors from China has virtually torn the roof off, with an astonishing +57.3 per cent increase from January 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-3RkQcEPt8YA/VtzVOttl-yI/AAAAAAAAbsc/JQFSsT-UH4w/s640/ARR4.jpg" width="640" height="348"></div>
<br><div>Naturally the most popular month in the calendar year for Chinese visitors will be February, due to the lunar year. The raw original data show that Chinese visitors in that month have ramped up at an astonishing pace:</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>Feb 2012 - 66,500</strong></div>
<div><strong>Feb 2013 - 110,400</strong></div>
<div><strong>Feb 2014 - 104,400 </strong></div>
<div><strong>Feb 2015 - 164,400</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>It seems likely that Febuary 2016 was another record-breaker, but we'll have to wait another month for the official confirmation of that. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The full suite of figures appear to tie with DIBP forecasts of population growth bottoming out at somewhere close to 300,000 per annum, before increasing strongly over the remainder of the decade.<br><br>It is important to note that most of the population slowdown has been in mining and resources regions - the largest capital cities have barely experienced any slowing at all to date.<br><br>Evidently the composition of immigration moving forward will be very different, with Asia being the key driver of population and tourism growth.<br><br>---<br><br>Chinese iron ore, coke and rebar futures have all hit limit up during today's trade, while crude might even get back to $40.<br><br>Nice to see. A few mining stocks are going ballistic. </div>
</div>
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Asian century tees off in Australia: Pete Wargent

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<p>There was a time when the announcement of a $6 billion mine creating 7,300 jobs would have set investors’ pulses racing and their fingers dialing.</p>
<p>If your heart is pounding at the prospect of a property boom around the China Stone coal mine in central Queensland, you haven’t been keeping up with modern trends.</p>
<p>The way mining companies operate these days, it’s possible to have thousands of highly-paid personnel working on a resources project without creating any local real estate demand to speak of.</p>
<p>Last week there was an announcement about the mine planned by Chinese mining company Macmines in the Galilee Basin region near Emerald. It was more of a confirmation than an announcement because, despite many newspapers treating it as new information, the project has been known a long time.</p>
<p>Construction cost $6.7 billion, 3,900 construction jobs, 3,400 operational jobs, $6 billion in royalties to government – it’s all been reported before.</p>
<p>China Stone is one of six mega-mines planned for the Galilee Basin, the others being Carmichael, Alpha, Kevin’s Corner, China First and Galilee South. They add up to $40 billion in investment, tens of thousands of jobs and lots of court time dealing with environmental opposition.</p>
<p>There was a time when this would have meant a property boom in the immediate area, with mining personnel paying huge rents for local houses.</p>
<p>But towns like Moranbah and Chinchilla in Queensland, and Port Hedland and Newman in Western Australia, became victims of their own success. The resources industry rebelled against rents topping $2,000 per week and tin-shed houses fetching over $1 million.</p>
<p>This created the concept that is now the scourge of many rural communities: the FIFO workforce and construction of temporary accommodation camps.</p>
<p>A mega-billion mine with thousands of employees doesn’t add up to a property boom any more. In many recent cases, it has destroyed real estate markets. </p>
<p>Developers have piled in, building lots of new homes in expectation of rich rewards, while the big miners have flown their workers in and out, putting them up in special camps outside the towns that expected to benefit from the influx of workers and money.</p>
<p>Massive vacancies have resulted in the towns of the Surat Basin and the Bowen Basin in Queensland. If developers haven’t done their research, it will happen again in the Galilee Basin.</p>
<p>There are scarcely any benefits to local towns from major mining projects now. Locals don’t even get to apply for jobs in the big mines on their doorsteps, because the workers are recruited elsewhere and flown in.</p>
<p>In the case of the multiple mega mines of the Galilee Basin, there will be economic benefits for nearby regional centres with airports, such as Emerald, if and when one of the mega projects starts construction. </p>
<p>Emerald has been hit by the current downturn in the coal industry, with vacancies around 7% (previously as high as 10%), houses typically taking 5-6 months to sell and discounting close to 20%. The median house price dropped 16% in the past 12 months and is now well below the level of five years ago.</p>
<p>If one of these mines proceeds, there will be a considerable uplift in air and road traffic through Emerald and inevitably some boost to its economy.</p>
<p>Consequently, the property numbers will improve.</p>
<p>But the days when Emerald and nearby coal towns like Moranbah and Dysart boomed, with astronomical prices and rents, are over - until the system changes.</p>
<p>In the current climate, these coal mines represent fools gold for developers and investors.</p>
<p><em>TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Emerald hit by coal downturn, property prices may improve: Terry Ryder

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<p class="legacy">GUEST OBSERVATION</p>
<p>The Australia-China relationship is unravelling at a pace that could not have been contemplated just six months ago.</p>
<p>In recent days, the ABC’s Bill Birtles and the Australian Financial Review’s Mike Smith were <a href="https://theconversation.com/journalists-have-become-diplomatic-pawns-in-chinas-relations-with-the-west-setting-a-worrying-precedent-145749">forced to flee</a> China following intimidation by security agencies and the imposition of an exit ban, later lifted following negotiations led by Australian diplomats.</p>
<p>Chinese media outlets then <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-09/chinese-scholars-have-visas-revoked-as-diplomatic-crisis-grows/12644022">alleged</a> that Australia’s security agencies raided the properties of several Chinese journalists in June in connection with a foreign interference investigation involving NSW MP <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/chinese-media-links-journalist-raids-to-labor-mp-shaoquett-moselmane/news-story/412f77bb439a079a7d0baf86ac63eed3">Shaoquett Moselmane</a>.</p>
<p>With no sign of the political tensions between Australia and China easing, the big danger in all of this is the erosion of the economic and people-to-people ties that were once the glue holding the relationship together.</p>
<p>If this goes, the events of recent days might only be a starting point in a broader bilateral decoupling that offers little prospect for the protection — let alone advancement — of Australia’s national interest.</p>
<p data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props='{"tweetId":"1303571394949652481"}'><strong>Cause for optimism amid declining ties</strong></p>
<p>Political tensions between the two countries <a href="https://www.australiachinarelations.org/content/australias-tilt-china">date back</a> to at least 2017. Apart from a brief “reset” when then-Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull gave an upbeat <a href="https://www.malcolmturnbull.com.au/media/speech-at-the-university-of-new-south-wales-sydney-7-august-2018">speech</a> on China at the University of New South Wales in August 2018, the trajectory of ties at the government level has been downhill since then.</p>
<p>Yet, the economic relationship continued to flourish, with two-way trade <a href="https://www.dfat.gov.au/trade/resources/trade-statistics/Pages/trade-time-series-data">growing</a> from $183.5 billion in 2017 to $251.4 billion in 2019.</p>
<p>And people-to-people ties appeared to offer cause for optimism, too.</p>
<p>The number of Chinese <a href="https://internationaleducation.gov.au/research/International-Student-Data/Pages/default.aspx">students</a> and <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3401.0">tourists</a> arriving in Australia showed few signs of peaking.</p>
<p>Vigorous cooperation was seen in other areas, such as Chinese researchers emerging as Australia’s <a href="https://www.australiachinarelations.org/content/australia-china-science-boom">leading</a> partners in producing scientific and research publications.</p>
<p><strong>The belief ‘black hands’ are now at work</strong></p>
<p>In the background, however, there were signs of worrying developments.</p>
<p>Ten years ago, it wasn’t hard for foreign academics to find Chinese colleagues willing to talk openly about politically sensitive issues in a private setting, or even modestly depart from the Chinese government’s line in a public forum, such as an academic conference.</p>
<p>But in June, Frances Adamson, Australia’s former ambassador to China and now head of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, <a href="https://www.dfat.gov.au/news/speech/frances-adamson-dfat-secretary-50th-episode-australia-world-podcast">reflected</a> that while China has academics who have spent their lives working on and with Australia,</p>
<p><em>when I read now what they say publicly, that nuance that existed before is gone.</em></p>
<p>This unwillingness to depart from the official line stems from the heightened censorship and illiberal turn China has taken in recent years. This has been instigated by the Chinese Communist Party — and in particular, President Xi Jinping — as they have become increasingly paranoid their grip on power is under attack.</p>
<p><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357159/original/file-20200909-20-1xolwi1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></p>
<p><em> <span class="caption">China has become increasingly illiberal and bellicose since Xi came to power.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mark Schiefelbein/AP</span></span></em></p>
<p>A prominent Chinese government <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-extradition-usa/china-tells-us-to-remove-black-hands-from-hong-kong-idUSKCN1UI0QJ">narrative</a> now alleges “black hands” connected to “foreign forces” are at work trying to undermine the country’s leadership.</p>
<p>This sensitivity has been sharpened by US government rhetoric. In July, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo stopped not far short of <a href="https://www.state.gov/communist-china-and-the-free-worlds-future/">declaring</a> a policy of regime change in China, saying</p>
<p><em>We must also engage and empower the Chinese people – a dynamic, freedom-loving people who are completely distinct from the Chinese Communist Party.</em></p>
<p><em>But changing the CCP’s behaviour cannot be the mission of the Chinese people alone. Free nations have to work to defend freedom.</em></p>
<p>While the Australian government has deliberately put distance between itself and the Trump administration, Beijing remains wedded to the idea Australia is a US lackey, despite significant <a href="https://www.australiachinarelations.org/content/australian-policy-prc-it-independent-us%E2%80%99">evidence</a> to the contrary.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>‘Are we actually safe here now?’</strong></p>
<p>Australians appear to have already been caught up in the consequences.</p>
<p>Academic and blogger Yang Hengjun, a China-born Australian citizen, has been detained since January 2019, <a href="http://au.china-embassy.org/eng/sghdxwfb_1/t1761341.htm">accused</a> of “engaging in criminal activities endangering [China’s] national security”.</p>
<p><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357164/original/file-20200909-20-1qkrwi0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></p>
<p><em> <span class="caption">Yang Hengjun has denied Chinese reports he had confessed to espionage.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP</span></span></em></p>
<p>And last month, the Chinese-Australian journalist Cheng Lei was also <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-08/australian-anchor-cheng-lei-china-endanger-national-security/12642596">detained</a> under suspicion of carrying out “criminal activities” endangering China’s national security.</p>
<p>This came just weeks after the Australian government changed its travel risk <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-07/dfat-changes-travel-advice-for-australians-in-china/12431134">advisory</a> to warn Australians might be “arbitrarily detained” in China.</p>
<p>These moves have had a chilling effect on the people-to-people ties that once formed the ballast of China-Australia relations.</p>
<p>PwC’s Asia practice leader, Andrew Parker, <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/australian-journalists-flee-china-as-cheng-lei-is-charged-with-endangering-security/news-story/2b9b2649c70450b5d48c9390d1a3955b">said</a> some in the business community are starting to ask the question, “are we actually safe here now”?</p>
<p><strong>Concerns for Chinese academics in Australia, too</strong></p>
<p>But importantly, not all the developments are one-way.</p>
<p>The ABC has <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-09/chinese-scholars-have-visas-revoked-as-diplomatic-crisis-grows/12644022">reported</a> that two leading Chinese academics in the field of Australian studies were also caught up in the investigation into the alleged Chinese plot to infiltrate the NSW parliament, resulting in their visas being revoked.</p>
<p>One of the academics, Chen Hong, the director of the Australian Studies Centre at East China Normal University, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-09/chinese-scholars-have-visas-revoked-as-diplomatic-crisis-grows/12644022">rejected</a> the allegations.</p>
<p>There were signs before the dramatic developments of this week that some Chinese journalists and academics were becoming wary of engaging with foreigners due to rhetoric directed at China, as well as policy actions taken by Australia.</p>
<p>In one of his last stories for the AFR before leaving China, Smith <a href="https://www.afr.com/world/asia/china-think-tanks-sever-academic-ties-as-hostilities-rise-20200826-p55pmz">reported</a> that Chinese academics had told him they were cutting off communications out of</p>
<p><em>fear they will be accused of being Communist Party infiltrators.</em></p>
<p>Some Chinese observers believe national security concerns are not the only factor in what is unfolding in Australia.</p>
<p>Moselmane’s lawyers are <a href="https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/nsw-mp-shaoquett-moselmane-wants-investigation-after-police-raided-his-home/news-story/7306a6ad90fe1dfd99af4d59655ee82f">seeking an investigation</a> into whether the media were tipped off before the Australian Federal Police raid on his home in June.</p>
<p>This possibility raises questions about whether the source of the alleged leak saw an opportunity for domestic political gain or to push another barrow, such as adding to Australia-China tensions.</p>
<p>At the same time, academics at Australian universities, many of whom were born in China, have been put under the spotlight in News Corp <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/ccp-weaponising-our-research/news-story/0c3fb0cb8a3578296339aca252c42a8c">outlets</a> for allegedly having links to the Chinese government. The fact that none of these academics have to date been identified by Australian law enforcement agencies as having done anything wrong appears to count for little.</p>
<p>It’s becoming clear the fears of being caught up as “<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-08/bill-birtles-mike-smith-evacuated-china-safety-concerns/12638786">pawns in a diplomatic tussle</a>” (as Birtles described it) are real now for journalists, academics and business people — those who used to believe they could continue to work in both countries, without significant concerns about political disputes.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145836/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;"></p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/james-laurenceson-203">James Laurenceson</a>, Director and Professor, Australia-China Relations Institute (ACRI), <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-technology-sydney-936">University of Technology Sydney</a></em></p>
<p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-australia-china-relationship-is-unravelling-faster-than-we-could-have-imagined-145836">original article</a>.</em></p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Why the Australia-China relationship is unravelling faster than we could have imagined

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<p>Mainland China’s rebound accelerates as HSBC Global Research raises GDP growth forecast from 1.7 per cent to 2.4 per cent.</p>
<p>Infrastructure and property investment seem set to be the most important drivers of GDP growth, according to the banking corporation.</p>
<p>Private consumption, however, is likely to continue to lag behind as<span style="font-size: 12.16px;"> demand has yet to pick up. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 12.16px;">"Households facing job-market uncertainty are saving more and likely to stay cautious as virus risks remain", <span>Chief China economist Qu Hongbin reported. </span></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 12.16px;">"We thus expect year-on-year rises in retail sales of only 1.3 per cent in the third-quarter and 6.3 per cent in October-December."</span></p>
<p>Infrastructure investment has recovered sharply, funded by 4.75 trillion renminbi (AUD947 billion) of special government bonds, and is set to grow by 15 per cent compared with a year earlier.</p>
<p>Fuelled by credit availability and a quick recovery in real estate transactions, property investment has experienced a similar rebound.</p>
<p>Hongbin noted the government deficit, 3.3 per cent of GDP in the first half of this year, is likely to increase to 7.7 per cent in the second half.</p>
<p>This will provide strong support for further economic recovery.</p>
<p>The HSBC report noted the banking corporation still expect 7.5 per cent growth next year.</p>
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China 2020 GDP forecast raised to 2.4 per cent: HSBC Global Research

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<p>GUEST OBSERVATION</p>
<p>Only 40 per cent of students in China who previously intended to study overseas still plan to, while just under 50 per cent of those who had studied overseas plan to return to their study after the borders reopen.</p>
<p class="legacy">These are results from our unpublished survey of 1,012 students we conducted in China between June 5 and 15. We asked them whether they would continue with their plan to study abroad post COVID-19. </p>
<p>These findings are not surprising. Due to growing tensions between China and the West – even before COVID-19 – middle-class parents in China had become increasingly concerned about the safety of, and possible discrimination against, their children abroad, including in the US and Australia.</p>
<p>The pandemic seems to have accelerated this trend.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/newsletter"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/320030/original/file-20200312-116261-a6ugi0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=90&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2" alt="Sign up to The Conversation" width="100%"></a></p>
<h2>What students say about studying in Australia</h2>
<p>Of the 1,012 students we surveyed, 404 had registered to study abroad in the next three years (in the US, UK, Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand and Singapore) and 608 had been studying overseas (including in Australia, US, UK, Canada, New Zealand and Japan) before COVID-19 .</p>
<p>In the questionnaire, we presented interviewees with considerations and asked them to nominate which ones would influence their decision about whether to study in Australia after COVID-19, as well as in other countries.</p>
<p>The first group (group A) includes 304 students who had studied in Australia but who were not able to return due to travel restrictions.</p>
<p>Of these, 50 per cent were undergraduates, 42 per cent graduates, 5 per cent doctoral students, and 3 per cent vocational education or high school students.</p>
<p>The second group (group B) includes students who had never studied abroad before but had registered their intention to in the next three years, including in Australia, before COVID-19.</p>
<p>The second group also answered Australia-specific questions.</p>
<p>Not many students in either group considered issues such as more expensive air travel, less freedom in China and online lectures as critical factors influencing their decision to study in Australia.</p>
<p>But the two groups reacted to some factors quite differently. The students who had studied in Australia before considered the following factors as more critical to their decision:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>returnees with Australian degrees are not more competitive in China’s job market compared to graduates from top-tier universities in China</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>life is more convenient, safe and easier at home and I don’t want to go abroad to endure the hardship as a foreign student</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>improved political stability and economic prospects in China</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>less of a chance of landing a good job with an Australian degree in China</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>no need to go abroad if lectures are delivered online.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<p>The group of students who hadn’t yet studied in Australia but planned to, considered the following factors as critical:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>media reported cases of Chinese being “discriminated against” or “abused” in Australia</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>deterioration in Sino-Australia relations</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>not many outstanding returnees from Australia are visible in the media to represent the success of Australian education</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Australian universities lowered the entry standard for foreign students due to COVID-19</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Australian degrees are perceived to be less valuable compared to degrees from other English-speaking countries, especially the US and the UK, by HR personnel in China.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2>What the students said</h2>
<p>Not surprisingly, both groups considered the Chinese government’s warnings against visiting, or studying in, Australia important. A decision to study and live abroad is often made by the whole family in China. Official voices weigh significantly in such decisions.</p>
<p>A student who had done some of her master degree in a Melbourne university said:</p>
<p>After the Chinese New Year, Australian borders were closed to Chinese students due to COVID-19. Direct travel was not allowed. So I travelled to Thailand and spent 14 days in a small hotel in Bangkok before I landed in Melbourne. I had to be self-quarantined for 14 days in my rented room.</p>
<p>Then I found all lectures were moved online and the situation of COVID-19 became serious in Melbourne. The PM urged international students to go home. My parents were so worried. They paid for an over-priced air ticket and a quarantine-hotel in Shanghai for me for 14 days before I could go back to my hometown.</p>
<p>When the [Chinese] government announced the travel and study warnings, I couldn’t convince my parents that things aren’t that bad in Australia. They listened to the government and believed the ‘official voices’ rather than their own daughter.</p>
<p>There <a href="/news">have been cases</a> (though isolated ones) of Asians or Chinese people being bullied in Australia due to COVID-19. Unfortunately, social media in China <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/chinese-students-will-not-go-there-beijing-education-agents-warn-australia-20200610-p55151" target="_blank">often distorts such cases</a> and amplifies the (mis)perceptions. And the tensions between China and Australia have enhanced these negative perceptions.</p>
<p>Sending their children abroad was once a privilege for elites with intellectual, economic or political power in China. But this is now quite common among middle-class Chinese families.</p>
<p>Chinese families spend a large amount of money on their children’s education. Better opportunities (either in the host country or on returning home) after study abroad is an underlining reason Chinese families invest in their children.</p>
<p>Australia has attracted many Chinese students in recent decades. But if Chinese students with Australian degrees are less appreciated or less competitive compared to those who study in other countries or in local universities, families will look for other options.</p>
<p>A Chinese student who had been studying at a Sydney university told us:</p>
<p>We are the clients and the degrees are a commodity; we pay for our degrees. What if the commodity loses its value? The clients will surely walk away.</p>
<p>COVID-19 has had a negative impact on the number of Chinese students likely to study in Australia. But the downward trend started way before the pandemic.</p>
<p>Australian universities need to adjust their strategies for a future that will not only deliver value for Chinese students, but also strengthen a positive perception about this value.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/141871/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;"></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/marina-yue-zhang-543587" target="_blank">Marina Yue Zhang</a>, Associate Professor of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/swinburne-university-of-technology-767" target="_blank">Swinburne University of Technology</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/students-in-china-heed-their-governments-warnings-against-studying-in-australia-141871" target="_blank">original article</a>.</p>
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Students in China heed government's warnings against studying in Australia

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>China’s economy contracted by the most since 1992 in the March quarter – as expected – as government coronavirus (COVID-19) containment measures shut down large swathes of the world’s second largest economy.</p>
<p>This week the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated that China’s annual economic growth rate for 2020 would average 1.2 per cent. Should this eventuate, it would be the slowest growth rate since the final year of the Cultural Revolution in 1976, reflecting the huge economic and social toll wrought by the virus.</p>
<p>That said, it appears that some ‘green shoots’ are emerging on China’s supply side. Bloomberg economists estimate that China’s back-to-work rate had climbed to around 95 per cent by April 10 with some coronavirus-enforced restrictions being eased. Data from Bloomberg also shows that larger industrial enterprises – oil refineries, steel mills and construction companies – have mostly resumed operations. In addition, around 85 per cent of small business reported being back at work last week.</p>
<p>And in promising news for Aussie exporters, China’s Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has advised that 85 per cent of housing-related and municipal infrastructure projects - that were delayed due to COVID-19 enforced shutdowns - had resumed construction on April 1.</p>
<p>On Thursday, China’s central bank Governor Yi Gang said, “Chinese economic growth is resilient”. And judging by China’s historic-high total new credit data in March, it appears policymakers are willing to provide solid support to the COVID-19 ravaged economy.</p>
<p>The People’s Bank of China have continued to cut lending rates and reduce funding costs, supporting credit expansion. And in another positive sign, China’s residential home prices lifted in March on the back of pent-up demand following February’s lockdown. On the demand side, international trade data was better-than-expected in March, but that will be short-lived with major trading partners now grappling with their “lockdown recessions.”</p>
<p><strong>What do the figures show?</strong><br>The Chinese economy (GDP) contracted by 9.8 per cent in the March quarter (forecast: -12.0 per cent). GDP contracted at a 6.8 per cent annual rate in the year to March (forecast: -6.5 per cent), following a 6 per cent expansion in the year to December. It was the sharpest contraction in economic activity since at least 1992 when official GDP records began.</p>
<p>Retail sales fell at a 15.8 per cent annual rate (forecast: -10 per cent) after declining at a 20.5 per cent annual rate in the year to January/February. Over the year to March, spending fell the most on restaurants &amp; catering (down 46.8 per cent), clothing (down 34.8 per cent), jewellery (down 30.1 per cent), household electronics (down 29.7 per cent), furniture (down 22.7 per cent) and motor vehicles (down 18.1 per cent). But spending lifted on food (up 19.2 per cent), medicine (up 8 per cent), telecommunications (up 6.5 per cent) and office supplies (up 6.1 per cent).</p>
<p>Industrial production fell at a 1.1 per cent annual rate in March (forecast: -6.2 per cent) after declining at a 13.5 per cent rate in January/February. Over the year to March, production fell the most for manufacturing (down 1.8 per cent), followed by power supply and energy (down 1.6 per cent). But mining was up 4.2 per cent. By industry, auto manufacturing fell by 22.4 per cent, but pharmaceuticals (up 10.4 per cent) and telecommunications (up 9.9 per cent) both rose the most.</p>
<p>Fixed-asset investment fell at a 16.1 per cent annual rate in March (forecast: -15 per cent) after declining at a 24.5 per cent rate in January/February. Over the year to March, investment fell by the most for the private sector (down 18.8 per cent) followed by state-owned enterprises (down 12.8 per cent). By industry, investment by textiles (down 37.1 per cent), general equipment (down 32.1 per cent), and railways and ships (down 31.6 per cent) fell the most. But investment in utilities rose by 2 per cent.</p>
<p>Chinese property investment fell at a 7.7 per cent annual rate over the year to March following a 16.3 per cent contraction over the year to January/February.</p>
<p>The unemployment rate (nationwide survey-based jobless rate) fell from record high of 6.2 per cent in January/February to 5.9 per cent in March.</p>
<p><strong>What are the implications for interest rates and investors?</strong></p>
<p>While China’s economy is expected to bounce-back in the June quarter – supported by a lift in infrastructure spending, lower interest rates and reduced bank borrowing costs – the recovery in 2020 is expected to be modest. In fact, CommBank Group economists are predicting annual growth of just 3 per cent this year as labour market strains hold back consumer spending.</p>
<p>The long road back to recovery is no more evident than in China’s jobs market. A recent study by China’s Peking University shows that the number of new positions on offer shrunk by 27 per cent in the March quarter, led by recruitment cuts among exporters and foreign enterprises. And round 2.3 million people received unemployment insurance in January and February, according to the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security. A Reuters poll of economists estimates that nearly 30 million jobs may be lost in China in 2020, crimping consumer spending.</p>
<p>And on the demand side, external headwinds are intensifying as China’s major trading partners endure deep recessions. Government containment efforts in the US, UK, Europe and Australia to contain the pandemic - including business shutdowns, travel bans and social distancing measures – will continue to adversely impact trade, supply chains and demand for Chinese goods.</p>
<p>The IMF expects the Chinese economy to rebound by 9.2 per cent in 2021. If this forecast is realised or exceeded, Australia’s own road to recovery will be enhanced. But our economic dependence on China is likely to be questioned after we emerge from the crisis.</p>
<p>Preliminary Australian March international trade data is scheduled for Thursday March 23.</p>
<p><strong>RYAN FELSMAN</strong><em> is a Senior Economist at CommSec</em></p>
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