<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/broadbeach-qld-4218">Broadbeach</a> offers plenty of reasons to live vertically, but moving from a substantial family home into an apartment can expose the compromises of high-density living. Privacy, room for guests and usable living space tend to matter more when an apartment is intended as a permanent home rather than an occasional coastal base.</p>

<p>A typical residential floor at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-eveleigh-broadbeach-7-9-surf-parade-broadbeach-qld-4218">The Eveleigh</a>, on Surf Parade,&nbsp;contains just four apartments. The 94-residence development by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/hirsch-faigen">Hirsch &amp; Faigen</a> is predominantly made up of expansive three-bedroom homes, with a limited collection of half-floor penthouses above.</p>

<p>Across the apartment floors, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a> has used the relatively limited number of residences to give each home greater access to natural light and outlook. Living spaces extend towards full-height glazing, while a series of bay windows frame selected views across the Pacific Ocean, city and hinterland rather than treating the building edge as a continuous wall of glass.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360965]</p>

<p>“The apartment floors deliver a collection of homes that embrace controlled outlook via a series of bay windows deliberately framing moments of view,” Rothelowman Director Kim Lowman said.</p>

<p>From outside, those projecting forms contribute to the tower’s faceted profile. Strong horizontal and vertical elements establish its proportions, while the changing position of the sun alters the light, shadow and reflection across the façade throughout the day.</p>

<p>The same attention moves inside the apartments, where the material palette combines warm timber, natural stone, metallic detailing and softer curved forms. Kitchens sit within the main living zone, with stone island benches, integrated joinery and European appliances, before the living areas extend towards the glazing and the outlook.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360981]</p>

<p>Three genuine bedrooms provide room to accommodate family and guests, while two secure car spaces and storage address some of the practical considerations that can become more noticeable when moving from a larger home. Feedback from the display suite has centred on the warmth and restraint of the interiors, with buyers commenting that the residences feel like homes rather than conventional coastal apartments.</p>

<p>A limited collection of half-floor penthouses occupies the upper levels, increasing the scale of the living spaces and adding private balconies and elevated finishes. From this position, the outlook extends between the ocean and hinterland.</p>

<p>Outside the private residences, The Eveleigh separates its shared spaces between the podium and rooftop. The podium is centred on wellness, with subtropical landscaping surrounding a swimming pool and pool terrace, yoga garden, private gymnasium, sauna and hot and cold plunge facilities. Landscaped retreats and pavilions provide additional places to sit away from the main recreation areas.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360966]</p>

<p>Higher in the building, a rooftop pavilion and private dining suite sit alongside resident lounge, barbecue and outdoor dining areas, opening towards panoramic views across the ocean, city and hinterland.</p>

<p>“Buyers are no longer just looking for an apartment, but a lifestyle where they can relax, reset, and enjoy a balanced way of living,” Hirsch &amp; Faigen Director of Sales Matt George said.</p>

<p>Interest to date has come from established owner-occupiers and interstate lifestyle purchasers, including buyers planning a future move to the Gold Coast. Many are coming from larger homes and want to reduce ongoing maintenance without giving up space for family and guests, privacy, two car spaces or the ability to entertain at home.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360969]</p>

<p>Much of that daily life can also take place beyond the building without requiring a drive. Kurrawa Beach and Pratten Park are an easy walk from Surf Parade, while Pacific Fair, Oracle Boulevard, The Oasis, restaurants, cafés, entertainment and public transport are also within walking distance.</p>

<p data-end="8307" data-start="8063">The Eveleigh is Hirsch &amp; Faigen's fourth Gold Coast development since entering the market in 2021, following The Hemingway at Palm Beach, The Emerson at Kirra and Yves at Mermaid Beach. Each of the preceding projects sold out before completion.</p>

<p data-end="8543" data-start="8312">“Broadbeach had been on our radar throughout our time operating on the Gold Coast,” the developer said. “Following our projects in Palm Beach, Kirra and Mermaid Beach, Broadbeach represented the natural next step for the business.”</p>

<p data-end="8915" data-start="8548">The Surf Parade site brought together proximity to the beach, protected coastal outlooks and walkability to dining, shopping and recreation. Hirsch &amp; Faigen also identified the street as an emerging premium residential address, with enough separation from Broadbeach's busier destinations to retain a quieter environment at home.</p>

<p>The Eveleigh is now under construction by Maxcon, with completion forecast for mid-2028. Three-bedroom residences are currently available from $2.87 million.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=149670]</p>


Joel Robinson

The Eveleigh brings house-like apartments to Broadbeach

<p>A long-stalled Campbelltown development site is back in play, with new plans for 139 apartments set to supersede a mixed-use scheme approved almost a decade ago but never built.</p>

<p>The new proposal for 28 Cordeaux Street would deliver 116 market and 23 affordable apartments in a part 14-storey building, bringing a substantial new project into a Campbelltown market where new apartment supply remains limited.</p>

<p>Plans have been filed over the 3,092 sqm corner site at Moore-Oxley Street, around 600 metres from Campbelltown Railway Station and the city-centre retail core.</p>

<p>The site already carries a mixed-use residential approval dating to 2016. Doroch Architects has now been engaged on a larger replacement scheme, which is progressing as a State Significant Development Application following a Housing Delivery Authority determination in August 2025.</p>

<p>The apartment mix comprises 39 one-bedroom, 72 two-bedroom and 28 three-bedroom residences. Two-bedroom apartments make up just over half of the project, while three-bedroom homes account for 20 per cent.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="136dd5b9-3791-4da6-9e31-76f533f5b4de" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Campbelltown%20da2.png?VersionId=LgOSy9nwf5u.MGswBBwaGGxuX8QpHSl_" /></p>

<p>Of the 139 apartments, 23 will be delivered as affordable housing under the in-fill affordable housing provisions of the Housing SEPP. The affordable component represents 15 per cent of the residential gross floor area and will be managed by a registered Community Housing Provider.</p>

<p>Doroch has sought to break the scale of the building into two distinct elements, with a masonry podium of around four storeys establishing the street edge before the residential tower steps back above.</p>

<p>The corner position has shaped that approach. Cordeaux Street faces toward the commercial and civic centre, while Moore-Oxley Street leads into the lower-scale residential neighbourhood to the south, and the design verification report describes the site as "bridging the commercial core to the north and established residential areas to the south."</p>

<p>The podium will be expressed predominantly in face brick, while the upper levels shift to brushed and grooved concrete cladding with darker metal detailing. Recessed sections, deep balcony edges and landscaping break down the upper form, with an approximately 11.8-metre setback to the northern boundary addressing the adjoining St Peters Anglican School.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c8b3d2d3-c561-4bfc-a5d9-a68c0c10dac1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Campbelltown%20da1.png?VersionId=AeAEyJU02Gk2k5noUj2StziCvdQ7fW4B" /></p>

<p>Campbelltown has been starved of new residential developments in the last decade.</p>

<p>The only other notable development set to come to market this year is ALAND's Queen Square, a mixed-use precinct on over two hectares that will comprise apartments above a vibrant ground-level retail and hospitality dining precinct.</p>


First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site

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<p>A 60-apartment building nine storeys tall would be a rarity almost anywhere along this stretch of Moreton Bay, but that's exactly what's been lodged for a modest Deception Bay street better known for its single-storey weatherboard homes.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherlock-construction-homes">Sherlock Construction Homes</a> is seeking to push Deception Bay’s emerging medium-density housing profile higher, lodging plans for a nine-storey apartment building near the suburb’s shopping centre and foreshore.</p>

<p>Dubbed Grosvenor Apartments, the proposal at 14-20 Grosvenor Terrace would replace two detached homes with a new building designed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/mode">Mode Design</a>&nbsp;which would&nbsp;reach nearly 30 metres, well above the site’s mapped 21-metre building height.</p>

<p><img alt="First Look: Sherlock Construction pitches 9-storey tower for low-rise Deception Bay" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="86c21a25-5a97-4ca7-a361-80757137ea5b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Deception%20da%20front.png?VersionId=aXIujfvEhH33sLHOEjHFv9Ii6qxSvAF4" /></p>

<p>The apartment mix is weighted toward larger homes, with 14 three-bedroom apartments, 31 two-bedroom apartments and 15 one-bedroom apartments. Six apartment types are spread across the floors, ranging from 66 sqm one-bedroom units through to three-bedroom apartments of 116 sqm, most with private balconies or terraces.</p>

<p>Levels one through seven follow a consistent layout of six to eight apartments per floor arranged around a central lift and stair core, with the top floor, level eight, trading one apartment for a landscaped community breakout space rather than repeating the standard layout below.</p>

<p>Ground floor is dedicated to arrival and services, with a lobby, mailroom and manager's office, alongside 91 car spaces.</p>

<p><img alt="First Look: Sherlock Construction pitches 9-storey tower for low-rise Deception Bay" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b098bde0-5fe1-4e6c-9601-e5446612e5fc" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Deception%20podium.png?VersionId=A0hfENMNxSxkfh9Jl6D4WJ9XIraeOukA" /></p>

<p>Mode Design's brief describes a "serene coastal-inspired design blending soft curves, natural textures and light-filled spaces to reflect the relaxed Deception Bay lifestyle."&nbsp;</p>

<p>The material palette leans on white and grey render, timber-look aluminium screening and stacked-brick-look finishes, with hanging greenery and vine planting proposed across balcony edges and ground-level walls.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Balconies feature asymmetrical geometries intended to vary the building's rhythm rather than repeat a single module up the tower, while lush planting is concentrated over the entry and level one balconies to soften the building's base.</p>

<p><img alt="First Look: Sherlock Construction pitches 9-storey tower for low-rise Deception Bay" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c05c5693-3e00-42d0-b075-55c36094f4db" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Deception%20da%201.png?VersionId=cMKJgBsBaaVCd2dA5O22SOT38OT_.BPA" /></p>

<p>The design evolved following an April 2025 prelodgement meeting with council. At that stage, the project was conceived as a seven-storey building containing 45 apartments. The subsequently lodged scheme increases the development to nine storeys and 60 apartments while introducing one-bedroom residences to the mix.</p>

<p>Zone Planning argues the additional scale reflects the site's position within an area earmarked for increased residential intensity. The planning report points to the North Lakes-Redcliffe-Moreton Bay Rail corridor strategy, which identifies Deception Bay as a district-level activity centre and supports greater housing choice within urban neighbourhoods.</p>

<p>Market Square Deception Bay, Deception Bay Sports Centre, Deception Bay State School, public transport, community facilities and the Moreton Bay foreshore are all identified within approximately one kilometre of the site, while the property falls within a 400-metre walking catchment of Market Square.</p>

First Look: Sherlock Construction pitches apartments for low-rise Deception Bay

<p data-end="587" data-start="368">Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.</p>

<p data-end="778" data-start="589">The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.</p>

<p data-end="907" data-start="780"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.</p>

<p data-end="1052" data-start="909">The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.</p>

<p data-end="1311" data-start="1054">The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.</p>

<p data-end="1451" data-start="1313">The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.</p>

<p data-end="1676" data-start="1453">MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.</p>

<p data-end="1908" data-start="1678">Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.</p>

<p data-end="2142" data-start="1910">The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.</p>

<p data-end="2142" data-start="1910"><img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" /></p>

<p data-end="2308" data-start="2144">MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.</p>

<p data-end="2648" data-start="2310">"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.</p>

<p data-end="2797" data-start="2650">"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."</p>

<p data-end="2938" data-start="2799">The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.</p>

<p data-end="3216" data-start="2940">Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.</p>

<p data-end="3325" data-start="3218">Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.</p>

<p data-end="3442" data-start="3327">"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.</p>

<p data-end="3662" data-start="3444">"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."</p>

<p data-end="3818" data-start="3664">MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.</p>

<p data-end="4076" data-start="3820">"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.</p>

<p data-end="4375" data-start="4078">"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."</p>

<p data-end="4503" data-start="4377">Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.</p>

<p data-end="4741" data-start="4505">"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."</p>

<p data-end="4910" data-start="4743">The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.</p>

<p data-end="4951" data-start="4912">MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.</p>


First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

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<p data-end="600" data-start="394">Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.</p>

<p data-end="733" data-start="602">But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.</p>

<p data-end="970" data-start="735">Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.</p>

<p data-end="970" data-start="735">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]</p>

<p data-end="1159" data-start="972">The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.</p>

<p data-end="1357" data-start="1161">It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.</p>

<p data-end="1664" data-start="1517">Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.</p>

<p data-end="1826" data-start="1666">Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.</p>

<p data-end="1826" data-start="1666">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]</p>

<p data-end="2045" data-start="1828">Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.</p>

<p data-end="2269" data-start="2047">"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.</p>

<p data-end="2430" data-start="2271">A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.</p>

<p data-end="2606" data-start="2432">It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.</p>

<p data-end="2724" data-start="2608">At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.</p>

<p data-end="2892" data-start="2726">Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.</p>

<p data-end="2892" data-start="2726">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]</p>

<p data-end="3004" data-start="2894">Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.</p>

<p data-end="3214" data-start="3006">"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.</p>

<p data-end="3670" data-start="3538">&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="3670" data-start="3538">[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]</p>

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Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

China

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<p>A vacant possession with existing permit for 34 units in Brunswick has been sold to development group with strong Chinese ties for $3.675 million in off-market deal brokered by Savills Australia’s CBD &amp; Metropolitan Sales Division.</p>
<p>The property, 2-6 Duckett Street, is 687 sqm, zoned Commercial 1 with a street frontage of 19 metres, was sold by Director, Julian Heatherich and Associate Director, Jesse Radisich.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>The site forms part of a precinct bounded by Sydney Road, Albion Street, Hope Street and the railway line which forms part of the Brunswick Major Activity Centre.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>The latter site sold to a prominent local developer for $4 million with a permit for 39 units.</p>
</body></html>

jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

China-linked group pays $3.675m for Brunswick site

<html><body>
<p>China’s slower growth figures have caused jitters in world financial markets. Nevertheless its growth remains at miracle levels. At this pace, China would appear to remain on track to become the richest and most powerful country in the world, bar none.</p>
<p>In a scenario where Chinese “miracle” growth continues around 5-6% for three decades and gradually slows to the average world growth rate, the average Chinese citizen would be as wealthy as the average American.</p>
<p>But ongoing Chinese growth miracle seems an unlikely outcome, when compared to the history of emerging economies. Instead, it is likely China will have to grapple with what is called the “middle income trap”. This is because China’s income level is currently at a level where many countries seem to stagnate.</p>
<h2>The middle income trap</h2>
<p>An example of this can be seen in the figure which charts per capita income for China, Turkey and Brazil as a percentage of the United States. It shows that, despite its remarkable growth, China’s income gap with the US has only reached the level that Brazil and Turkey had already achieved by the 1970s.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/29/image-20160127-26778-1nykof.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/01/29/image-20160127-26778-1nykof.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Moreover it can be seen that, since the 1970s, Brazil and Turkey made practically no further ground in closing the gap with the US.</p>
<p>According to a 2012 World Bank report, this slow growth pattern is typical of middle income countries. Specifically, of 101 countries that were “middle income” in 1960, only 13 broke through the middle income band to become rich countries.</p>
<p>Thus, based on history there is a reasonable concern that China’s growth will slow to an extent that it stops catching up with the West. China would then begin to look like like Brazil or Turkey in the sense that per capita income remains well below Western levels and there is a constant threat of political and economic instability.</p>
<h2>Causes of the middle income trap</h2>
<p>Unfortunately we don’t know very much at all about why there appears to be a middle income trap.</p>
<p>The authors of the World Bank study who coined the term suggested it was due to rising wage costs that make exports less competitive.</p>
<p>It is true that wage increases can hurt some export sectors, but market forces prevent this happening for the economy as a whole. Thus wage growth cannot reduce an economy’s overall competitiveness.</p>
<p>Other explanations suggest the middle income trap results from too much investment in physical infrastructure at the expense of education and skills. Alternatively it could be a result of political failure.</p>
<p>But these are only descriptions of the symptoms – they don’t tell why so many countries have political failures or why so many countries over-invest in physical capital.</p>
<p>So while there are many descriptions of the middle income trap, there is no clear theory and hence there are no testable propositions. It remains an elusive statistical fact.</p>
<h2>Traps versus bad luck and bad policy</h2>
<p>The lack of a clear view about the causes of a middle income trap makes it difficult to know whether it is a pattern likely to continue in the future. In a recent study, therefore, we tried to get a better sense of the predictability of a middle income trap from a purely statistical viewpoint.</p>
<p>For example if, for any reason, a country was unable to change its growth rate, the growth rate would exhibit persistence over time. That is, if things got better by chance one year, there would be some market or political force that brings things back to trend.</p>
<p>Alternatively if some countries simply had a run of bad luck, or made some big policy mistakes, there may be little persistence in the data. The growth rate might display some randomness from one year to the next.</p>
<p>We therefore tested to see whether we could reject the hypothesis that the path of per capita income had followed a random trend for 47 middle income countries.</p>
<p>Thus in the previous figure one can see that there is apparently very little difference in the trend path of Brazil and Turkey – they have similar growth rates and growth variance. But, in fact, the statistical tests show that Turkey’s growth rate has persistence, but Brazil’s growth rate is random.</p>
<p>So despite the visual similarity, Brazil and Turkey have very different statistical properties.</p>
<p>We found that only seven countries show evidence of a persistent trend toward staying stuck in the middle like Turkey.</p>
<p>Of the rest of the countries, half had a trend that was random like Brazil. For most countries there was no evidence of a persistent trend toward the middle income band.</p>
<p>So only very few countries’ per capita income time paths are consistent with the pattern that we would expect to see if they were constrained to their current relative income level.</p>
<p>Although these results are descriptive, they could be taken as evidence against a structural reason for a middle income trap. That is, perhaps what appears to be a pattern of behaviour across many countries, is just the way things panned out.</p>
<p>So despite the bleak historical record, maybe good statesmanship, market friendly policies and bit of luck are all that is needed to sustain growth.</p>
<p>For China therefore, as a middle income country, the historical odds are against replicating the Japanese or South Korean economic miracle. Thankfully, however, the past need not be a good predictor of the future.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><em><span class="fn author-name" style="line-height: 1.3em;"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Peter Robertson</span> is p</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">rofessor, University of Western Australia and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-robertson-11950" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></em></p>
<p><em><span class="fn author-name" style="line-height: 1.3em;">Longfeng Ye is a</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">ssistant researcher, University of Western Australia and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/longfeng-ye-221938" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></em></p>
<p><em><span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Both </span>are<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> authors for The Conversation.</span></span></em></p>
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po-LsXgBTHBmX

China's greatest challenge becoming rich and escaping the middle income trap

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<p><span>Lu Lu Pallier from Sydney Sotheby's International Realty, has noted Chinese buyers are finding it increasingly difficult to get money out of the country.</span></p>
<p><span>Her comments to the <em>Australian Financial Review</em> comes as Beijing tightens foreign exchange controls in a bid to support its weakening currency.</span></p>
<p>Lu Lu Pallier said she had detected it in recent weeks that clients were having difficulty moving money offshore.</p>
<p>"It is getting harder for them to send money out...I've been told since the start of the year it has tightened up," she said.</p>
<p>The Shanghai-born Ms Pallier said Australian properties priced below $5 million would be the hardest hit as buyers often did not already have their money already offshore.</p>
<p>"These people don't have other ways, like through their business, to get money out of the country," she noted.</p>
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Chinese buyers' pool for Australian property set to tighten

Australia’s links to China set to broaden: HSBC's Paul Bloxham

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<p>A Victoria Supreme Court has upheld an injunction temporarily halting the sale of Tasmanian dairy business Van Diemen's Land to a Chinese backed company.</p>
<p>Moon Lake is headed by Chinese businessman Lu Xianfeng who made an unconditional binding offer to VDL owner, New Zealand-based New Plymouth District Council.</p>
<p>But the offer is subject to approval by the Foreign Investment Review Board.</p>
<p>Earlier this month the VDL indicated it was selling to the Tasmanian company TasFoods Limited in a $280 million cash and share deal.</p>
<p>However, NPDC's investment arm, Taranaki Investment Management Limited, announced subsequently it had sold the farm in a "commercially superior" deal.</p>
<p>The NewZealandfarmer.co.nz speculates it is $300 million.</p>
<p>The case is back in court this week.</p>
<p><span>VDL is effectively owned by the New Plymouth District Council in New Zealand and the council’s interests are managed by Taranaki Investment Management Limited (TIML).</span></p>
<p><span>TasFoods Limited, formerly OnCard International Limited, has retained Allan Myers QC and Andrew Broadfoot of counsel, instructed by Norton Gledhill.</span></p>
<p><span>The Van Diemen’s Land Company has dairy operations in the far North-West of Tasmania with some 25 dairy farms. Thirteen of the farms are in Woolnorth and another 12 in other areas of Circular Head. It milks about 19,000 cows to produce between 90 and 100 million litres of milk, or 7.7 million kilograms of milk solids, a year.</span></p>
<p><span>There are about 150 staff employed on its own properties, including those share-farmed.</span></p>
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Van Dieman's Land dairy sale dispute

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<p><span>Just 19 millioniares have sought significant investor visa permits since Australia overhauled its requirements from July, the <em>Australian Financial Review</em> has reported.</span></p>
<p><span>New applicants now must invest some of their $5 million into smaller equities and venture capital, directing investment away from passive investment towards investment in innovation and industrial development.</span></p>
<p><span>It was sitting at seven applications two months ago.</span></p>
<p><span>Some 1,600 applicants, mostly from China preferred the former fast track residency scheme that allowed low-risk government debt and property investments investing around $3.8 billion into Australian assets after the Federal Government created the golden visa in 2012. </span></p>
<p><span>Under the new rules, applicants must spend $500,000 on funds investing in startup and small private companies, $1.5 million on small-cap equity funds, with the other $3 million on managed funds across Australian listed securities, eligible corporate bonds or notes, annuities and property.</span></p>
<p><span>Investment in residential real estate will only be permitted to comprise 10% of the $5 million minimum investment amount, although investors may invest in excess of this outside of this limit.</span></p>
<p><span>"The cost of the visa has gone up the risk curve," David Chin, the Sydney-based managing director of Basis Point Consulting Pty told the paper.</span></p>
<p><span>Chinese nationals accounted for 91 percent of applications under the old program, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimated.</span></p>
<p><span>Australia granted around 750 of the visas between November 2012 and March 2015 from 1,679 applications submitted, government data show with Victoria the most popular destination.</span></p>
<p><span>The new Federal Government rules which require investors to put their money into riskier assets such as venture capital come as likely investors also struggle to shift money following China's official central government move to tighten capital controls.</span></p>
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New venture capital SIV scheme off to very slow start as Chinese mostly want property

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<p><span>The ABS released its </span>Overseas Arrivals &amp; Departures<span> figures for September 2015 which confirmed that net permanent and long-term migration continued to slow to +282,400 on a rolling annual basis, which is now the lowest level since July 2007.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/11/10/Arr1.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/11/10/Arr1.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>With New Zealanders and Europeans having increasingly opted to pursue more appealing or lucrative career and lifestyle choices elsewhere, net immigration into Australia is now overwhelmingly being driven by Asian migrants.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/11/10/Arr6.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/11/10/Arr6.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<div>Indeed while migration from New Zealand continues to slow and British settler numbers are tracking at their lowest level in decades, settlers from China and India have steadily increased in number to their highest level on record.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Later this week the ABS will release the latest Labour Force figures, which will show employment growth of close to +2% for the past year comfortably outpacing the rate of population growth of around +1.4%.<br><br>Meanwhile tourism has become of the fastest growing sectors of the domestic economy. A recent <em>Deloitte Access Economics</em> report noted an existing shortage of 38,000 workers with a projected further 123,000 workers required by the end of the decade, leading inevitably to industry calls for a relaxation of visa rules.</div>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 2 - Record visitors</span></strong></p>
<div>The flip side to the slowing of Australia's economy - and in turn net permanent and long-term immigration - is that the lower dollar has encouraged a record 7.25 million visitors to our shores over the past year, a monster increase of well over 450,000. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>What is more the rolling annual number of short term departures is now in decline for the first time since a temporary blip through the financial crisis, as the weaker dollar encourages more Aussies to holiday at home. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This is one of the many ways in which a weaker currency serves to boost an ailing domestic economy.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/10/Arr2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/10/Arr2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Indeed anyone looking for evidence of how the weaker currency can help to rebalance the economy need look no further than the below chart, which shows the ratio of short-term departures to arrivals shifting into a long, sweeping downtrend.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/10/Arr7.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/11/10/Arr7.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 3 - China explosion</span></strong><br><br>Gosh! The number of visitors from China continues to explode at a breakneck pace being up by an outlandish 27% from September 2014, with more than 1.3 million visitors arriving from China and its provinces over the 12 months to September 2015. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>While the rise and rise of the Chinese middle class and tourism - with its associated surge in spending power - is very much a global trend, Australia has evidently been extremely successful to date in capturing its share.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/10/Arr3-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/10/Arr3-1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>In fact it was announced during the past month that Britain will slash the price of its two year visa for Chinese visitors from <span>£</span>325 to just <span>£</span>85 in a slightly desperate attempt to capture more of this lucrative market.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In a related trend, the lower dollar has also encouraged record education arrivals with a huge surge since 2014 taking rolling annual arrivals to beyond 453,000.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/10/Arr4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/10/Arr4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>This is another trend which is very much skewed towards students of Asian origin and particularly Chinese students, with 2016 set to be the </span>biggest year on record<span> for higher education visas.</span><br><br><span>The student visas boom is very much a capital cities phenomenon, which is one of a multitude of reasons that Australia's capital cities are set to capture an even greater share of population growth over the next decade.</span><br><br><span>With recent changes to rules and regulations in New Zealand having reportedly curbed Chinese interest in the Kiwi property market, the above demographic shifts have potentially significant implications for Australian real estate over the remainder of the decade.</span><br><br><span>Anecdotally there has been a renewed rush of interest in Australian property from would-be Chinese investors.</span><br><br><span>A significant share of new arrivals come to Australia for education but stay for the long term on other substantive visas - it's one the reasons that Chinese investors are so active in targeting Australian property markets.</span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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Australia capturing Chinese middle class attention: Pete Wargent

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Queensland is a lovely place. Chinese buyers seem to be snapping up everything in sight. Why, then, does the Queensland government report that investors from Switzerland, Germany and Holland own more hectares of land than do those from China?</p>
<p>To be fair, the British own even more than these other Europeans. The United Kingdom’s position as Queensland’s number-one foreign land owner is understandable. So, too, is the lead they have on everyone else.</p>
<p>The POMs own more of Queensland than the Swiss, Germans, Dutch and Chinese – put together. That makes sense, because the British have been acquiring land since the days of the First Fleet.</p>
<p>It is the paltry amount of land owned by the Chinese that surprises, given how Chinese purchases have dominated the news over the last few years.</p>
<p>It's not for lack of trying. Since 2011, Chinese have pushed their share of Foreign Investment Review Board approvals for real estate purchases up by more than 50 percent. Last year, Chinese applicants received approvals on a record of $12.4 billion of investments.</p>
<p>On the other hand, Chinese investors have only been buying property in Australia during the last half decade. Earlier, they did not not have the desire, the wealth or the practical ability to purchase property in other countries.</p>
<p>So, while the British had been piling up Australian riches since January 1788, Chinese have only been investing in this country on any real scale since 2010. This helps explain why the Chinese have not yet accumulated the same level of assets as investors from other and much smaller nations.</p>
<p>There is another reason Chinese possessions in Queensland are less than one-ninth the extent of British-owned. Many Chinese buyers are either individual home-owners, or developers.</p>
<p>The developers aren't buying huge tracks of land. They prefer urban sites that are just the right size for an apartment building or two.</p>
<p>Needless-to-say, the individual homebuyers are also purchasing on a one-by-one basis. Many also go on to become Australian citizens, so the property they purchase is no longer owned by a foreign national.</p>
<p>In other countries, as wealth as has risen, so too has ownership of foreign real estate. Most observers expect China to play catch-up over the next decade or two.</p>
<p>China will continue purchasing real estate overseas at a rapid pace, although of course with fluctuations in specific locations.</p>
<p>By 2025, you might expect China to own more Australian property than the Dutch or the Swiss. They may even challenge the British, although I personally think that will take longer.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><em>Andrew Taylor</em><em> is the founder and chief executive officer of sales and marketing at <a href="https://www.juwai.com/" target="_blank">Juwai.com</a>, the number-one Chinese real estate portal for property in Australia and around the world.</em><em> <em>Find out more about him <a href="https://list.juwai.com/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></em></p>
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ataylor-LB7AWVFTs9

Queensland’s Red Tide: Juwai's Andrew Taylor

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<div>Earlier this year I wrote about the extent to which Chinese investment in Australian real estate has mushroomed over the past few years.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Unfortunately the Foreign Investment Review Board is not due to release its 2015 Annual Report for some time, and furthermore not all states release full disclosure of foreign land ownership.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>One state which does so is Queensland, and indeed its Annual Report for the 2015 financial year was released only this week.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Foreign Ownership of Land Register (which requires disclose of the ownership of freehold or leasehold land) provided further evidence that Chinese investment in Queensland has absolutely exploded, with the value of annual acqusitions soaring by more than 170 per cent in the space of only two financial years from $323 million to $873 million. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This accounted for a greater value of investment than all five of the other major countries disclosed combined.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/QLD.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/QLD.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Urban focus</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The data shows that while British interests continue to own the greatest land <em><strong>area</strong></em> in Queensland, Chinese investors have been very much focussed on the acquisition of urban land, in particular locations in Brisbane and on the Gold Coast.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed, Chinese investors accounted for a thunderous 63 per cent of foreign interest land acquisitions on the Gold Coast in 2014-15.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Meanwhile, foreign interest land acquisitions in Brisbane for the financial year were overwhelmingly mopped up by investors from China (37 per cent), Singapore (33 per cent), and Hong Kong (8 per cent).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The value of foreign land acquisitions in the financial year away from Brisbane and the Gold Coast was considerably lower.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/QLD2.jpg" target="_blank">Click enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/QLD2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>The interest of Chinese investors in Australian property is set to scale unprecedented heights in 2016, but the impacts of this are not always well understood.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
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Chinese investment in Queensland explodes: Pete Wargent

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p><span>ABC’s Four Corners program highlighted concerns that Chinese criminal funds may be propping up Australia’s real estate market. Why is Australia’s anti-money laundering framework not providing sufficient comfort that these concerns are addressed?</span></p>
<p><span>The answer lies in both the scope of Australia’s anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing laws, as well as the enforcement of these laws, especially in relation to proceeds of foreign offences.</span></p>
<p><span>The scope of the law</span></p>
<p><span>In the 1980s Australia became one of the first countries to adopt anti-money laundering laws. In 1989 it joined a small group of countries in the <span>Financial Action Task Force</span> (FATF), taking the lead in identifying appropriate policing measures. FATF then developed into the international standard-setter for anti-money laundering measures, as well as counter-terrorism financing measures, a mandate added in 2001. It also assesses its members’ compliance with those standards, known as “recommendations”.</span></p>
<p><span>Businesses covered by these rules need to identify and verify the identities of their customers, assess and mitigate the money laundering and terrorist financing risks they pose and report suspicious transactions as well as certain large transactions. By doing that they protect themselves from committing money laundering offences and their industries from abuse by launderers.</span></p>
<p><span>Australia held FATF’s presidency in 1992-1993 and again in 2014-2015. However, its early start in adopting anti-money laundering laws and its leadership role in the FATF did not ensure a soft assessment regime for Australia. In 2005, FATF criticised Australia’s anti-money laundering and terrorism financing regime for lagging behind, especially in terms of the scope and enforcement of its laws. It was held to be fully compliant with only 12 recommendations and largely compliant with another 14 of the 49 recommendations that applied at that stage.</span></p>
<p><span>This spurred Australia to adopt the current <span>Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorism Financing Act of 2006 (AML/CTF Act)</span>. This Act created a world-class framework in relation to financial institutions. But the overall framework was not complete. FATF’s standards apply to financial institutions as well as a number of so-called “designated non-financial businesses and professions”. This list includes casinos, lawyers, real estate agents, dealers in precious metals and stones, and trust and company service providers.</span></p>
<p><span>In 2006, with the exception of casinos and bullion dealers, these were set aside to be addressed in a second tranche of AML/CTF Act reforms. Despite various statements and government consultation, also in the context of the current <span>statutory review</span> of the AML/CTF Act, these reforms have not yet been effected.</span></p>
<p><span>Combined with the limited transparency of the beneficial ownership of companies and trusts, it leaves the property market vulnerable to money laundering and terrorist financing abuse.</span></p>
<p><span>The lack of enforcement of the existing criminal laws is, however, also a cause for concern.</span></p>
<p><span>Lack of enforcement</span></p>
<p><span>Australia has a well-developed set of statutory money laundering and terrorist financing offences, both at the federal and a state/territory level. At the federal level, for example, the Criminal Code creates offences that can be committed knowingly, recklessly and even negligently, for example when dealing with property which is reasonably suspected to be proceeds of crime.</span></p>
<p><span>The 2015 <span>FATF assessment report of Australia</span> found that money laundering offences involving proceeds of foreign offences, including corruption offences, are not frequently prosecuted “because Australia does not consider that foreign predicate offences are major predicates for money laundering in Australia.” (par 3.44). Predicate offences are offences generating the proceeds of crime to be laundered.</span></p>
<p><span>Authorities mentioned the difficulties of obtaining off-shore evidence to prove the foreign offence. But a lack of effective federal/state law enforcement coordination was found to pose a particular barrier, especially in relation to the property market:</span></p>
<p><span><em>For example, while ML (money laundering) of foreign illicit proceeds through real estate is perceived to be a risk for Queensland (Gold Coast), Queensland has no ML convictions for this activity. AFP (Australian Federal Police) indicated that it does not focus on this risk, believing this ML activity relates to State level predicates, whereas the Queensland Crime and Corruption Commission stated it does not focus on this risk as it relates to foreign money and is thus a matter for AFP.</em></span></p>
<p><span><em>At the same time, assessors took note of two examples of successful prosecution for foreign predicates (fraud and corruption) by AFP and the registration of two restraint orders from Papua New Guinea in Queensland.(par 3.44)</em></span></p>
<p><span>The overall enforcement strategy therefore does not reflect a high level of concern about the abuse of the property market by those wishing to launder proceeds of foreign corruption.</span></p>
<p><span>Protecting the property market</span></p>
<p><span>Much can be done to increase the protection of the property market against criminal abuse. While the AML/CTF legal framework should be extended to all businesses and professions covered by the FATF standards, compliance and red tape concerns may continue to delay the second tranche of reforms. The best starting point would therefore be to work with the available legal tools and to prosecute money laundering offences involving designated non-financial businesses and professions and markets of concern, such as the property market. In relation to foreign corruption that will require close cooperation with foreign counterparts.</span></p>
<p><span>Increased prosecution will also provide improved evidence of the abuse that actually occurs and inform the debate on the urgency and nature of the law reforms that are required. However, Australia must also enhance the transparency of beneficial ownership of companies and trusts. If criminals find it more risky to purchase property in their own names, they will increasingly hide behind business structures. It is therefore important to improve public information regarding the control of companies and trusts.</span></p>
<p><span>It is also important to reflect on money laundering law enforcement priorities. Money laundering prosecutions levels increased over the past few years but corruption, especially foreign corruption, struggles to receive appropriate attention.</span></p>
<p><span>If Australia wants to hold an international integrity leadership position and improve its ranking on the Transparency International Corruption Perception <span>Index</span>, it will need to join its international counterparts by taking firm action against foreign corruption, including the laundering of the proceeds of foreign corruption.</span></p>
<p><span><span class="fn author-name"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/louis-de-koker-100846" rel="author"></a></span></span><em style="line-height: 1.3em;">Louis de Koker is p<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">rofessor of law, Deakin University </span>and<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/louis-de-koker-100846" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></em></p>
<p><span> </span></p>
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