<p>Preliminary data by research giant Charter Keck Cramer reveals a 54 per cent decline in Build to Sell apartments across Australia's capital cities, while the Build to Rent boom continues with a 378 per cent increase over the last five years.</p>

<p>Charter Keck Cramer's upcoming National State of the Market Report - Key Metropolitan Areas, scheduled for release in September, will reveal&nbsp;a dramatic transformation in apartment supply patterns across Australia's capital cities between FY2016-2020 and FY2021-2025.</p>

<p>The Build to Sell (BTS) apartment sector has experienced a substantial contraction, with total supply falling by 54 per cent compared to the previous five-year period. The decline represents a reduction of <strong>149,200 apartments</strong> across all capital cities.</p>

<p><img alt="BTS Charter Keck Cramer" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3db2ddf3-e7c0-481f-b8b9-63efb365cb80" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-08-20%20at%2011.26.34%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=bsQl8inhZA7FeiPamnGvw1tse0obBdSd" /></p>

<p>Sydney led the downturn with a decrease of 73,600 apartments, followed by Melbourne (-42,800) and Brisbane (-26,800). Perth and Adelaide also recorded significant declines of 6,400 and 2,400 apartments respectively. Only Gold Coast and Canberra bucked the trend, with modest increases of 500 and 2,300 apartments.</p>

<p>In stark contrast, the Build to Rent (BTR) sector has emerged as a major force in the apartment market, recording a remarkable 378% increase in supply. This growth added 8,590 apartments across the capital cities during FY2021-2025. Melbourne dominated BTR growth with 6,160 additional apartments, while Sydney contributed 2,100 units. Brisbane and Canberra also recorded growth of 800 and 330 apartments respectively. Gold Coast and Perth recorded minor declines, while Adelaide maintained steady levels.</p>

<p><img alt="BTR CKC" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ca13ffd4-ab93-4828-afd2-4c3dccbd2b51" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-08-20%20at%2011.28.54%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=SXNnpcJuFD36ViWOwF6izBBqcQc3NWao" /></p>

<p>“These preliminary findings indicate a fundamental shift in Australia's apartment development landscape, with traditional Build to Sell models giving way to institutional Build to Rent developments,” said Richard Temlett, Charter Keck Cramer’s National Executive Director of Research.</p>

<p>"This transition reflects changing investor preferences, regulatory environments and housing affordability challenges across major metropolitan areas.”</p>

<p>The complete Charter Keck Cramer National State of the Market Report – Key Metropolitan Areas will provide comprehensive analysis of these trends, their underlying drivers and implications for developers, investors and policymakers when released in September.</p>


Joel Robinson

Build to Sell apartment supply drops 54% in five years across Australian capital cities

<p>Verso Development Group is seeking to bring over 1,100 apartments to the heart of Brisbane's Toowong, with plans filed for a $1 billion, triple tower development known as Toowong Central.</p>

<p>The landmark urban regeneration project "aims to reshape the core of Brisbane’s inner-west riverside suburb."</p>

<p>Covering over 1.4-hectares across&nbsp;Sherwood Road, High Street, and Jephson Street, Toowong Central has been designed by KHA and will comprise three towers rising 49, 55, and 58 levels.</p>

<p><img alt="Toowong Central" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="48611e3d-7123-4b99-b2cb-bfa4bc98024f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/amenities.png?VersionId=yKBexB.BgCkq4OET8fHDkWs0d3DjxOKJ" /></p>

<p>According to the Urban Context Report prepared by Urbis, Toowong Central is positioned as a “city-defining precinct reclaiming Toowong as ‘the best destination in the west’,” with a vision to deliver density differently, strengthen Toowong’s identity, and lead subtropical urban design.</p>

<p>There will be a wide range of apartment configurations, from one-bedrooms to five-bedroom penthouses, as well as short-term accomodation offerings. The design prioritises pedestrian permeability, with an activated public realm featuring a central civic plaza, laneways, and street-level retail and dining.</p>

<p>“The central square’s structure, programming, scale and location creates a social anchor - shaped by its edges, flexible for use, and animated by a diversity of experiences throughout the day and into the evening,” the Urban Context Report noted, reinforcing the project's ambition to become a vibrant community destination.</p>

<p>Design excellence was pursued through an international design competition, attracting entries from renowned practices such as UNStudio and BIG. KHA’s winning design distinguished itself with a ceremonial approach to the public realm, integrating terraces, tiered seating, and green infrastructure to promote social interaction and resilience.</p>

<p>The development builds upon two existing approvals: the 25- and 20-storey towers of the Aviary Toowong proposal, and a separate 25- and 24-storey approval at 88 Jephson Street. Consolidation of these fragmented landholdings under a precinct-wide approach allows for increased community value and cohesive urban integration.</p>

<p>Urbis Director Nicholas Stevenson said Toowong Central will bridge the gap in Toowong's current experience, unlocking the potential of the wider precinct.</p>

<p>"Overcoming experiential constraints and leveraging contextual advantages – Toowong Central will redefine Brisbane's inner west.”</p>

<p><img alt="Toowong Central" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73f7a702-625d-452d-9df2-30a0863ac1e8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/master.png?VersionId=TZdh6wxGC_8IIroXpdkZfuhlS8mFZnea" /></p>

<p>Toowong Central’s ambition extends beyond residential and commercial outcomes. Uses under consideration include a world-class hotel, university facilities, a museum, and health and wellness services, reflecting its role as a western gateway to Brisbane’s growing innovation corridor between the CBD and the University of Queensland.</p>

<p>Urbis Managing Partner James Tuma said Brisbane has no greater opportunity to showcase the future of urban living than Toowong – a sustainable, economically vibrant, and people-centric place that embodies the best of Brisbane.</p>

<p>[The plans] gives us a glimpse into our future as a globally relevant, youthful, entrepreneurial, and distinctly subtropical city.”</p>


$1 billion Toowong Central to deliver 1,100 apartments to undersupplied Brisbane market

<p>In <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/runaway-bay-qld-4216">Runaway Bay</a>, new townhouse-scale waterfront residences are rare - but ones built to the standards found on Sovereign Island are almost unheard of.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/ocean-suites-on-jennifer-10-12-jennifer-avenue-runaway-bay-qld-4216">Ocean Suites on Jennifer</a>&nbsp;changes that, delivering a calibre of construction and detailing that places its seven villas well above the typical market offering in this northern Gold Coast pocket.</p>

<p>Ocean Suites on Jennifer will be move-in ready before Christmas this year, giving buyers the chance to spend the summer on the water in one of Runaway Bay’s rare new waterfront residences.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=138718 project_image_fid=214444]</p>

<p>The development is a collaboration between <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/stuart-osman">Stuart Osman Design</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sand-side-developments">Sand Side Developments</a>, with construction by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/alroe-constructions">Alroe Constructions</a>.</p>

<p>Architect Stuart Osman says the intent from the outset was to create a home people would be drawn to. “When you build anything, the design is to make you want to go hang out in this house,” he says.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Ocean Suites on Jennifer’s design features a front façade softened with planter boxes, rear pool areas, and rooftop decks looking over the water.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Inside, voids and high skylights bring daylight deep into the centre of each home, while ceiling heights of 2.85 metres maintain a strong sense of volume.</p>

<p>Each four-level residence spans 345 to 388 sqm, with layouts accommodating multi-generational living - a ground-floor bedroom suite for older family members and upper levels for the rest of the household. A lift connects all floors.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=138718 project_image_fid=214435]</p>

<p>For Andrew Erwin, Director at NPA, the project’s appeal lies in both its location and the detail in execution.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"At Ocean Suites, you’ve got a canal-front setting with direct Broadwater access and a level of finish you’d normally only see in the city’s most prestigious addresses. The four-level layouts, the glass-framed living areas, the private pools, even the extended kitchens, every part of it has been designed with the buyer in mind,” he says.</p>

<p>Those buyers have so far been a mix of Gold Coast locals and interstate purchasers, many seeking a lock-up-and-leave holiday home or a downsized residence without sacrificing space for visiting family.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Older households with teenage children are a recurring profile, drawn to layouts that support multi-generational living and the ability to host extended stays.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=138718 project_image_fid=214432]</p>

<p>Material selection reinforces the project’s quality-first ethos, with every home appointed to a premium standard. Kitchens and ensuites feature engineered stone surfaces, complemented by prestige oak engineered timber floors, Victorian ash hardwood staircases, and soft loop-pile carpet.</p>

<p>Premium lighting, statement pendants, ceiling fans, and Fujitsu ducted air conditioning elevate both comfort and design. Each residence also includes a suite of high-end appliances as standard - Fisher &amp; Paykel integrated fridges, Bosch ovens, induction cooktops and dishwashers, Vintec wine fridges, and Franke sinks.</p>

<p>Beyond the interiors, residents enjoy an enviable lifestyle with rooftop terraces, private plunge pools, fire pit areas, outdoor showers, smart home automation, laundry chutes, and private pontoons.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=138718 project_image_fid=214452]</p>

<p>With no additional upgrade costs, Sand Side Developments underscores its no-shortcuts approach, delivering homes where luxury and amenity come as standard.</p>

<p>Osman adds that the kitchen has been designed as “the main hub of the house” with six metres high skylights above a galley-style layout that “makes it feel bigger, brighter, whiter” and “brings light into the centre of the home.”</p>

<p>Both architect and builder emphasise a shared commitment to delivering the intended design without compromise. “Working with Alroe’s structural team and their construction team, it’s been great to make sure that the look and feel that was originally intended is the result achieved at the end of the project,” Osman says.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=138718 project_image_fid=214453]</p>

<p>Outdoor living has been given equal consideration, with rooftop terraces designed for entertaining with a fire pit and bar, and spacious undercover patios featuring private plunge pools.</p>

<p>The marine access is as carefully executed as the homes themselves. An eight-metre gangway leads to a six-metre private pontoon capable of mooring vessels up to 30 feet, just 300 metres by water from the Broadwater.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Even the orientation of each villa has been optimised to capture long views down the canal, across the Broadwater, and south to Main Beach.</p>

<p>With construction in its final stages, just three of the seven villas remain, priced from $3.365 million to $3.695 million.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=138718]</p>


Sovereign Island standards come to Runaway Bay with Ocean Suites on Jennifer

<p>Without local developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gardner-vaughan-group">Gardner Vaughan Group</a>, it could be argued that the small suburb of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/nundah-qld-4012">Nundah</a> would be left behind when it comes to both new housing and retail opportunities.</p>

<p>Gardner Vaughan, one of South East Queensland’s most reputable builder-developers, has been based in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/nundah-qld-4012">Nundah</a> for the last decade. They plan to maintain their presence in the northern <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/brisbane-qld">Brisbane</a> suburb, just seven kilometres from Brisbane Airport and nine kilometres from the city, with the development of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/danby-lane-nundah-village-5-danby-lane-nundah-qld-4012">Danby Lane</a>, the first major project in several years in the heart of the town centre.</p>

<p data-end="912" data-start="594">GVG will retain one of the commercial spaces in the new mixed-use building for their office headquarters. It will be located in the commercial podium, alongside several other new office spaces. Below will be a street-level retail precinct designed to reinvigorate the local economy, and above, 84 brand-new apartments.</p>

<p data-end="912" data-start="594">[smartcode_project:default project_id=112531 project_image_fid=320114]</p>

<p>Over 60 percent of the apartments have already been snapped up, with buyers eager to secure one of the rare new apartments in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/nundah-qld-4012">Nundah</a>, as well as to benefit from Gardner Vaughan’s solid reputation and long-standing presence in the local community.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=112531 project_image_fid=320117]</p>

<p>Gardner Vaughan identified the site at the corner of Buckland Road and Danby Lane for its proximity to key amenities. Within 400 metres of the development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/nundah-qld-4012">Nundah</a> Village offers a variety of cafes, restaurants, and pubs. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/nundah-qld-4012">Nundah</a> Train Station, just 400 metres away, provides a quick 20-minute train ride into Roma Street.</p>

<p>The development has also attracted young families, drawn to the proximity of not one, but twelve parks, with Boyd Park and Oxenham Park being the most notable. Established families have shown interest due to the close proximity of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/nundah-qld-4012">Nundah</a> State School and Mary MacKillop College.</p>

<p>The one- and two-bedroom apartments in the building have already been snapped up, while the larger three- and four-bedroom apartments—ranging from a generous 117 sqm to nearly 200 sqm—remain highly sought after. There are also just three exclusive luxury penthouses left to sell.</p>

<p>With its in-house construction capability, Gardner Vaughan has already commenced construction on-site and expects to complete the building by March 2027. It's hard to see another opportunity to buy brand new in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/nundah-qld-4012">Nundah</a>, where creating a site anywhere near the scale of the Danby Lane is becoming more and more difficult.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112531]</p>


Why Danby Lane is the focal point for change in Brisbane's Nundah

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/metro-property-group">Metro Property Group</a>’s flagship townhouse development, Citrine Townhomes in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/rochedale-qld-4123">Rochedale</a>, has reached another key construction milestone, with the first stage of townhouses now in the defects phase.</p>

<p>All building works for Stage 1 are complete, with the internal roads asphalted, line marking finished, and the bin store slab poured.&nbsp;All essential services, including permanent power, sewer, gas, and water, are now connected and operational.</p>

<p>The defects process is expected to continue until late-August.</p>

<p><img alt="Citrine Townhomes, Rochedale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="f48ad1d8-7bb2-424a-a378-2caa4d34c27d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/017%20-%20%20ROLLEY%20PHOTO%20MEDIA%20%20%20-24072025.jpg?VersionId=o5BC3LgYTwxcufsjldO8mkPww3gix1NC" /></p>

<p>Stage 2 is also moving forward steadily, with all townhouses sheeted, the first coat of paint applied, and joinery installed throughout. Tiling has been completed on six of the seven blocks, and the pool is scheduled to be pebblecreted by the end of August.</p>

<p>Stage 3 continues to gather momentum, with external cladding completed on three of the eight blocks. All townhouses have been fully roughed-in for electrical, plumbing, and air conditioning, and the first two blocks have now progressed to internal sheeting.</p>

<p>Stage 1 and 2 are 100 per cent sold and there are now just 10 four-bedroom townhomes left in Stage 3, priced from $1,125,000.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=136295 project_image_fid=211]</p>

<p>Residents at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/citrine-townhomes-rochedale-311-gardner-road-rochedale-qld-4123">Citrine Townhomes</a> can also look forward to high-quality shared amenities. The residents' facility will feature a pool, landscaped areas, and a BBQ space, contributing to a lifestyle-focused community environment.</p>

<p>Metro’s fully furnished display home has generated strong interest locally, reinforcing the market’s confidence in the project. Stage 1 and 2 are completely sold out and Stage 3 has officially launched and is selling fast. Just 10 townhouses remain for sale in the development.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=136295 project_image_fid=273134]</p>

<p>The broader Citrine development comprises 90 three and four-bedroom townhomes designed across two to three levels, offering a contemporary contrast to Rochedale’s surrounding single-family homes.</p>

<p>Located just 17 km from Brisbane CBD, Citrine is within walking distance to schools, parks, and the popular Rochedale Village, home to Coles, medical services, and dining options.</p>

<p>Metro Property Group remains on track for project completion, with settlements forecast for Stage 1 in October/November 2025, Stage 2 in November/December 2025, and Stage 3 in January/February 2026.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=136295]</p>


First stage of townhouses at Citrine Rochedale reaches completion milestone

Australia

<html><body>
<p class="Normal"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">It’s sadly typical of real estate investment that the most popular places for buyers are also the worst places to buy.</span></p>
<p class="Body"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Investors are piling en masse into a series of off the plan unit markets that will be the ruination of many people’s wealth dreams. The top five locations in terms of sales volumes are all places that property buyers must avoid.</span></p>
<p class="Body"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">It’s a commentary on two issues, which are among the core problems for property investors. One is that most investors fail to conduct genuine research before making decisions that involve hundreds of thousands of dollars. The second is that far too many of them think that reading media reports constitutes research.</span></p>
<p class="Body"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">When I spoke at two Performance Property Advisory seminars in Melbourne earlier this week, I told audiences that most of what they read or hear about real estate in mainstream media is misinformation. Most of what they read or hear is press release material (i.e. someone’s propaganda) regurgitated as credible information. There is no journalistic oversight on the material that is published, in most cases.</span></p>
<p class="Body"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Among the most dangerous material is “research” which presents lists of, for example, the 10 best places to buy for high rental yields, or the 10 top buyers’ markets in the land, or the locations with the biggest growth in median prices in the past quarter.</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body"><span class="Body__Char">These lists are presented by incompetent journalists with the inference that these are the places investors should be buying. It amounts almost to criminal negligence. Those lists of the places with the highest yields or the ones described as the best buyers’ markets in the land comprise places where markets are in serious decline. Many of these markets are basket cases.</span></p>
<p class="Body"><span class="Body__Char">Earlier this week we saw a list of the most popular locations for buyers in Australia. These are the suburbs with the highest numbers of sales. The treatment given to this press release material from a publicity-hungry research business inferred that these were all great places to buy. If everyone’s piling into these places, then so should you. The inference is that the herd mentality is a viable method of making investment decisions.</span></p>
<p class="Body"><span class="Body__Char">Eight of the top 10 locations on the list were all locations that investors must avoid, if they are to escape a financial disaster. Those eight locations were apartments markets with heavy marketing of off-the-plan high-rise units in locations that already have, or will soon have, serious oversupplies.</span></p>
<p class="Body"><span class="Body__Char">The No.1 location in the list was the Melbourne CBD. Most of the 1,500 buyers who have purchased apartments there in the past 12 months will live to regret their decisions. Also on the Top 10 list were neighbouring unit market suburbs, Southbank and South Yarra. This is oversupply central for Australian real estate – a place where unit towers are being built not for local consumption but to be flogged at inflated prices to offshore investors. It won’t end well. </span></p>
<p class="Body"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Four of the top 10 places were occupied by unit markets on the Gold Coast, with Surfers Paradise No.2 on the national list. You have to wonder how many people have to lose money in this fools’ paradise before investors get the message to steer clear.</span></p>
<p class="Body"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The Gold Coast has just spent five years absorbing the previous surplus of high-rise units, with property values falling in virtually every suburb in Gold Coast City. The median price for Surfers Paradise is still lower today than it was five years ago, but in the past 12 months another 1,255 buyers dived headlong into this investors’ graveyard, even as developers are working hard on creating the next massive over-supply.</span></p>
<p class="Body"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The Brisbane CBD, which is working hard to outdo its Melbourne’s counterpart as oversupply central, is No.3 on the list.</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body"><span class="Body__Char">The latest research shows that only 10% of sales in the Brisbane inner-city unit market are to owner-occupiers. Investors are buying 90% of the stock and the great majority of them are distant investors – people from interstate and overseas. Many will wish they had left their money in the bank.</span></p>
<p class="Body"><span class="Body__Char">Vacancies in Brisbane’s inner-city suburbs range from 4% or 6.5% - and that’s before all the new supply now under construction hits the rental market. BIS Shrapnel research shows that a record number of new apartments will be completed this year, but more will be finished next year and even more the year after. These numbers are a red flag for sensible buyers.</span></p>
<p class="Body"><span class="Body__Char">Brisbane, like Melbourne and the Gold Coast, is building far too many apartments because they’re not being created for local consumption – they’re being conceived for sale to unsuspecting foreign buyers.</span></p>
<p class="Body"><span class="Body__Char">The developers will be happy because they will sell all their apartments and make lots of money, but the broader market and the people who own properties there will suffer, as high vacancies cause rents to fall, with values to follow.</span></p>
<p class="Body"><span class="Body__Char">If you’re an investor driven by the herd mentality or the FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) syndrome, then you will dive into these markets. And when you lose money, you will thoroughly deserve it.</span></p>
<p class="Body"><span class="Body__Char">Be afraid, be very afraid.</span></p>
<p class="Body"><span class="Body__Char"><em>TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></span></p>
</body></html>

terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Better in the bank than on Brisbane inner-city apartments: Terry Ryder

<html><body>
<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="post-title entry-title">Globally there are now more than 657,000 cases of the Coronavirus, and more than 30,400 deaths.<br><br></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HM41pHmKAsY/Xn7wR2xMvLI/AAAAAAAA08U/bG7s8MQo5zkSOQxZJbwM7OzigYI8UDjUQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/LOG.jpg" width="640" height="450" data-original-height="569" data-original-width="806"></div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><br>On a global basis new cases continue to climb to 65,000 per day and rising.<br><br></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-R6pcDJYkWbQ/Xn7wokBLYZI/AAAAAAAA08g/VMdwPR0gQL4wgpDxU9IL9VUU8mYRr9uaACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/C2.jpg" width="640" height="344" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="911"></div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"> </p>
<div>With the exponential increase continuing, it's only a matter of time before total global known cases ascend to 1 million and beyond. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>On the positive side of the ledger, China appears to have all but eliminated new cases, and a number of other countries appear to have arrested the virus. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Germany now has more than 58,000 cases, but its curve does now appear to be flattening.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Tragically, Italy has seen more than 92,000 cases and 10,000 deaths, but with luck here too the exponential growth may soon be curtailed. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Spain's figures still look nasty, but the curve is gradually flattening. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Increasingly the biggest disaster of all looks as though it might be in the US, where cases have exploded to 120,000 with little sign of any promising progress to date.</div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><strong>Australia shutdown</strong><br><strong><br></strong>How about in Australia?</p>
<div>Today, new known cases increased by 460, taking total known cases to 3,640, with 14 deaths to date (mainly over those aged in their 70s or older). </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-U0VzMI3HDdc/Xn8hj5RCmgI/AAAAAAAA08o/1nU4s_mE34srRpq1lVS9p4-mJr9GaupiwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/C1.jpg" width="640" height="400" data-original-height="593" data-original-width="946"></div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"> </p>
<div>That does represent an increase from 370 new cases on March 24, which was four days earlier, but at this stage the situation doesn't appear to be deteriorating catastrophically.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Granted, a lot may change in this regard within a week or two. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>So we're by no means out of the woods yet, but for whatever reasons things do appear to be shaping up somewhat better in Australia than elsewhere.</div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-aAbsD3Y4PHw/Xn8h6M-ybsI/AAAAAAAA08w/OMN88HSHX8U2YCeIm2eZi47L7kOC-lZ7QCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV1.jpg" width="640" height="470" data-original-height="656" data-original-width="893"></div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"> </p>
<div>And that's in spite of multiple cruise ship blunders and numerous earlier examples of flagrant disregard for social distancing rules.<br><br>And, indeed, it's in spite of more widespread testing per capita in Australia than in most other countries (Korea, Germany, and Russia have held more tests than we have, but of course their respective populations are far larger than ours, at only 25 million). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Only a virologist can explain the possible reasons for this; perhaps the climate helps?</div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><strong>A 9-point plan for re-opening Australia</strong></p>
<div>This is a global pandemic with global ramifications, but ultimately the world won't end, and figuratively speaking it'll be every man for himself when it comes to the critical question of how to kick-start national economies again.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Here's a 9-point plan for how we might be able to achieve it soonest and most effectively, from the perspective of a perpetually under-qualified blogger, should the daily figures begin to improve over the next fortnight:</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>1 - Initiate a shelter-in-place order</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>States already have shelter-in-place action plans, so these should be used immediately for all non-essential workers and businesses. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Aussie economy has effective already had a coronary, so it's now imperative to get daily new cases of the Coronavirus under control as soon as humanly possible.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The sooner we can do that, the sooner we can think about re-opening. </div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><strong>2 - Wage subsidies</strong><br><br>The government has spoken much about its 'stimulus packages the equivalent of 10 per cent of GDP', but the truth is much of this has been in the form of loan facilities and other non-cash items.</p>
<div>Whether by following a similar model to Boris Johnson in the UK or through another approach using the existing transfer system, the government must announce wage subsidies for stood down workers to keep them solvent until such time that the economy can be opened for business again.<br><br>Retail workers are being stood down at an alarming rate, while hospitality and tourism is also being smashed.<br><br>But these workers can return to work soon too, provided that they can be tided over with subsidies.<br><br>Furthermore, with Treasury or RBA funding, banks may also be better served over the medium term to offer interest-only mortgage terms at an interest rate of, say, 2½ per cent to any borrowers in distress, for as long as needed (in addition to the arbitrary 6-month payment holiday terms already being promoted). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Interest-only mortgage terms with the use of an offset account can be an ideal means for families and other mortgagors to begin building up a safety buffer as get back on their feet from a financial perspective.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Rental relief measures will presumably also follow, perhaps implemented at the state level. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>These are extraordinary measures, but they're also extraordinary times.<br><br>Shutting down the economy is effectively a national disaster scenario, and it needs to be approached as such. </div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><strong>3 - Set up a COVID-10 Delivery Unit</strong></p>
<div>Create a dedicated COVID-19 Delivery Unit to purchase, import, manufacture, or find any other ways to both stockpile and circulate facemasks, surgical masks, respiratory equipment, ventilators, gowns, protective gear, and treatment drugs, and prepare as many ICU beds as practicable around the country. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Even <em>if</em> the virus gets under control in the short term, there could yet be a second, third, and fourth wave, so it's better to go hard here rather than die wondering (for want of a better phrase). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>If there's available funding for testing and research into vaccines, cures, and effective treatments, then implement that too. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>4 - Fund a COVID-19 Testing and Tracing Unit</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Australia must acquire millions of testing kits, and put in place widespread and rigorous testing and tracing regime, with an enforceable action plan for quarantining and treating those with symptoms, and tracing the recent contacts of any known infected persons. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>5 - Government messaging</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Testing and tracing will likely need to continue long after the curve of new cases is flattened, and to this end government messaging should encourage Aussies to keep a daily journal of their movements, and a daily record of folks they may have had close contact with each day (this is a suggestion I read about at the excellent <em>Calculated Risk</em>, and as usual it's a very thoughtful one). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>One of the best-known finance authors once reportedly said that people need to hear simple messages over and over again before they truly sink in...a point with which I concur.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Therefore, appropriate messaging needs to be hammered home repeatedly on social distancing, the wearing of facemasks, washing hands, sanitising, hygiene, avoiding touching objects unnecessarily, and a raft of other key points. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The wearing of facemasks has, to my knowledge, normally only been common practice amongst Aussies of Asian origin, but common sense says we should all consider adopting the practice (and maybe gloves too).</div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><strong>6 - Re-open local economies with few cases</strong></p>
<div>The government faces the nigh on impossible task of balancing the public's health against the human and economic cost of keeping businesses closed.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Take the example of the capital city of Darwin.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Northern Territory was already in recession before the COVID-19 issue surfaced, and now its borders must be closed and its businesses will be hit harder still by any restrictive measures. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Yet the entire territory has just 15 known cases of the Coronavirus to date, and only one death.</div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9gbrFTI3xpE/Xn8mfKh2aeI/AAAAAAAA084/MmkNK0vSRMoQk9SnCFIDGM8SAMP5CISAgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/C2.jpg" width="640" height="436" data-original-height="662" data-original-width="970"></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>At the appropriate point the towns and cities (and then states and territories) with the fewest cases will need to see restrictive measures lifted.<br><br>This can soon be an opportunity for Australia's regions to lead the economy forward again, which would make a pleasant change from the heavy reliance on Sydney and Melbourne of the past 7-8 years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Virus hotspots may need to remain shuttered for longer, but for towns and cities with the fewest cases the curfews and restrictive measures can be lifted soonest. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>7 - Re-open the Aussie borders, but with mandatory testing</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The capability should exist to introduce and maintain mandatory testing for all entrants into Australia on an ongoing basis. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It goes without saying that those showing symptoms will need to be quarantined and appropriately treated. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>On the one hand these measures may seem draconian, but on the other hand, what might the alternative look like? </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Many of the cases in Australia apparently originated overseas, so airports and the border are evidently a high risk area. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>8 - Allow businesses to re-open</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>As daily new known cases begin to decline, allow businesses and trading to re-open, but with social distancing still to be practised to the extent possible.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Businesses should be encouraged to allow staff to work from home where practicable, and group meetings discouraged where possible.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Moreover, an over-arching rule of common sense must apply. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>9 - An ongoing fight</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's not yet entirely clear whether re-infection is possible, or whether there will be second and third waves of the virus in those locations where cases of the virus have initially been controlled. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Therefore, we must remain vigilant well beyond the point that the economy is up and humming again.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>A balancing act</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>There is, of course, no 'right' way to do these things. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Every day that companies or self-employed workers are closed for business inflicts more pain, so there are many challenging decisions to be made in real time by those in power to balance the potential risks versus respective health and economic costs. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Only in hindsight will experts know what could or should have been done with more certainty, but this 9-point plan is what's swirling around my head tonight.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>In short: </strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>- Issue shelter-in-place orders until the curve of new cases is flattened;</div>
<div> </div>
<div>- Go hard, fast, and early to wage subsidies for workers and cash payments for businesses, with further mortgage and rental relief packages to follow;</div>
<div> </div>
<div>- Build up a war chest of medical supplies, and introduce a nationwide testing, tracing, and quarantining program;</div>
<div> </div>
<div>- Hammer home the 'best practice' messaging, and encourage record-keeping with respect to personal movements and contact with others;</div>
<div> </div>
<div>- As daily new cases begin to decline, re-open locations and economies with the fewest known Coronavirus cases first, and gradually roll this re-opening out nationwide; and </div>
<div> </div>
<div>- Enforce mandatory testing for all entrants to Australia, with quarantine as required.</div>
<p class="post-title entry-title"><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

A 9-point plan for re-opening Australia: Pete Wargent

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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">According to </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Time Magazine</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">, second citizenships are very popular among the wealthy of the world.</span></p>
<p><span>But where do they choose to move to?</span></p>
<p><span><strong>Net inflow of millionaires 2000 to 2014</strong></span></p>
<p><span>UK - 125,000</span></p>
<p><span>US - 52,000</span></p>
<p><span>Singapore - 46,000</span></p>
<p><span>Australia - 35,000</span></p>
<p><span>Hong Kong - 29.000</span></p>
<p><span>UAE - 18,000</span></p>
<p><em>Source; Time Magazine</em></p>
<p><span>Some of these locations will remain popular due to their favourable tax legislation.</span></p>
<p><span>Others will become more sought after due to them being desirable places to live.</span></p>
<p><span>I expect to see Australia moving up this list, particularly becoming a country of choice for with the wealthy of Asia. </span></p>
<p><span>We even have a visa system which encourages this. </span></p>
<p><span>Where would you move to, if you could live anywhere?</span></p>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
<p><span> </span></p>
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The international flow of millioniares: Pete Wargent

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<p>Australian Architects are heralded as proudly ambitious in preserving Australia's heritage, honouring national history and providing our cities with activated, engaging and community buildings and spaces that are socially and environmentally beneficial. With the rise of 'starchitects' and landmark designs, Australian architects are more approachable than ever, entering global design competitions, catching the eyes of global developers and governments to influence roles in cities abroad.</p>

<p>This is a short celebrated list of notable Australian Architects and their realised or planned projects abroad</p>

<h2><span style="font-size:14px;"><strong>FUNAN, SINGAPORE - <a href="/architects/woods-bagot">WOODS BAGOT</a></strong></span></h2>

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/woodsbagot.com_.jpg" rel="gallery-all" title=" Image of Woods Bagot’s Funan in Singapore."><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="454" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/woodsbagot.com_.jpg?itok=nvoyaFfM" title=" Image of Woods Bagot’s Funan in Singapore." width="580"></a>

<figcaption>Image of Woods Bagot’s Funan in Singapore.</figcaption></figure><p>Representing a new era of mixed use and retail, Woods Bagot’s Funan in Singapore is an exemplary piece of architecture that is true to form in that it blends worlds and acts as a civic hub.<br>
The design acknowledges the rise of online shopping and maximises its engagement for tech savvy shoppers offering more of a destination than a retail precinct. <br>
Spaces connect vertically and laterally to provide an integrated environment that blurs traditional zones to offer an ecosystem of lifestyle activities under one roof.</p>

<p>Funan is a connected development which responds to a socially and environmentally conscious world with communal spaces, urban rooftop farms and gardens and vertical wall plants.<br>
The flexible ventilation of the ground floor allows 24 hour accessibility to pedestrians and cyclists, further improving upon the vibrant streetscape and its engagement to people. The building’s design caters to a new generation of consumers who yearn for interactive, connected and collaborative environments that reflect their authentic passions and tastes.</p>

<h2> </h2>

<h2><span style="font-size:14px;"><strong>MERDEKA PNB118, KUALA LUMPUR - <a href="/architects/fk-australia">FENDER KATSALIDIS</a></strong></span></h2>

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/fender_katsalidis.jpg" rel="gallery-all" title="  Rendering of Fender Katsalidis’ Merdeka PNB118, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia."><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="1106" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/fender_katsalidis.jpg?itok=fag5H25M" title="  Rendering of Fender Katsalidis’ Merdeka PNB118, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia." width="580"></a>

<figcaption>Rendering of Fender Katsalidis’ Merdeka PNB118, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.</figcaption></figure><p>Australian architecture firm Fender Katsalidis has designed the upcoming Merdeka PNB118 skyscraper in Kuala Lumpur, standing at 644 metres tall with 118 floors of office, hotel, topped by an observation deck and restaurant.<br>
The crystalline tower will be the centrepiece of Kuala Lumpur’s Merdeka site, where Malaysian independence was declared in 1957.<br>
The tower’s design is an expression of its structural pathways, resulting in geometric patterns in the facade which are reminiscent of traditional Malaysian arts and crafts.</p>

<p>Cementing itself as one of the World’s top 10 tallest buildings when completed, the design of the tower is influenced through Fender’s <a href="/news/urban-com-au-profiles-10-of-melbourne-s-top-luxury-apartments">Eureka Tower</a> and how its design form represents a piece of Victorian history. The Malaysian capital wanted a landmark tower that represents in form its cultural history and significance in this same way. The project will preserve two heritage buildings on the site including the Merdeka Stadium and Negara National Stadium.</p>

<p>The podium interior has a soaring, dramatic atrium fit with stone surfaces which will include the lower lobby access at one end and office and retail lobby access at another.<br>
The retail component will offer over 300 stores of upmarket to high end clothing.<br>
The project in collaboration with local architect, RSP Architects and landscape architects Sasaki Associates has an expected completion in 2020.</p>

<p> </p>

<p><span style="font-size:14px;"><strong>CAPITAMALL 1818, WUHAN - <a href="/architects/the-buchan-group">BUCHAN GROUP</a></strong></span></p>

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/buchan_group.jpg" rel="gallery-all" title=" CapitaMall 1818, Wuhan, China. Image by Buchan Group."><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="326" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/buchan_group.jpg?itok=K5ocii-T" title=" CapitaMall 1818, Wuhan, China. Image by Buchan Group." width="580"></a>

<figcaption>CapitaMall 1818, Wuhan, China. Image by Buchan Group.</figcaption></figure><p>The Buchan Group delivers a revitalised shopping interior, exterior facade and graphics for the CapitaMall in Wuhan’s downtown. Located along the prosperous Zhongshan, the high end mall features 8 levels of retail, entertainment and dining and is one of seven CapitaLand developments in the city.</p>

<p>It was important that through this revitalisation of the downtown mall, that all 10 million of Wuhan’s residents feel represented with a design reflecting the vast cultural catchment with a rich past, whilst still responding to the innovative retail future and its trends.</p>

<p>The podium creates a vibrant streetscape amongst the integrated office and residential mixed use precinct and ensures that the buildings perform a civic function, providing a meeting place and community engagement for locals.<br>
The responsibility to respect Wuhan’s deep cultural history was felt by the Buchan Group as well as the need to embrace a modern urban community with aspirations to adapt to recent retail trends.</p>

<p> </p>

<p><span style="font-size:14px;"><strong>NATIONAL MARITIME MUSEUM OF CHINA, TIANJIN - <a href="/architects/cox-architecture">COX ARCHITECTURE</a></strong></span></p>

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/coxarchitecture.com_.jpg" rel="gallery-all" title=" National Maritime Museum of China in Tianjin. Rendering by coxarchitecture.com"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="363" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/coxarchitecture.com_.jpg?itok=suUJPtDm" title=" National Maritime Museum of China in Tianjin. Rendering by coxarchitecture.com" width="580"></a>

<figcaption>National Maritime Museum of China in Tianjin. Rendering by coxarchitecture.com</figcaption></figure><p>The Binhai New Area is an important economic zone as Tianjin expands as an important international port, with over 2000 high tech companies developed in the area and urban residential spaces built upon reclaimed land.<br>
The National Maritime Museum of China by Cox Architecture whose design won the international competition for China’s first maritime museum, sits in the Binhai New Area of Tianjin. The Museum covers 150,000 square metres of space and includes three levels, a large exhibition hall and an observation tower which also acts as the Museum’s energy plant.</p>

<p>One of the main details of importance for the new museum was its connection and relation to the water as much of Chinese cities developed out of the canals or by the water’s edge.<br>
Not much is known of the country’s Maritime past, so for Cox Architecture, designing a space of such importance had to reflect a strong identity.</p>

<p>As the Chinese Government collected elements to fill the Museum, the designs of the structure had to evolve and adapt to their findings. Cox Architecture needed to provide a space to raise public awareness and develop into an educational base for scientific research and environmental protection.</p>

<p>Opened in 2019, the National Maritime Museum of China will be free for visitors and include six divided sections with an enriched array of themes arranging from Culture and History, Marine Ecology and Environment, Science Education and interactive programs as well as shopping, restaurants, cafes, cinema and gardens surrounding and connecting to the waterfront.</p>

<p>Awards:<br><br>
World Future Project of the Year, World Architecture Festival Singapore 2013<br>
Future Projects Competition entries Category Winner, World Architecture Festival Singapore 2013</p>

<h2><span style="font-size:14px;"><strong>KAOHSIUNG EXHIBITION CENTRE, KAOHSIUNG TAIWAN - <a href="/architects/cox-architecture">COX ARCHITECTURE</a></strong></span></h2>

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/coxarchitecture.comm_.jpg" rel="gallery-all" title="Kaohsiung Exhibition Centre, Kaohsiung Taiwan. Image by coxarchitecture.com"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="305" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/coxarchitecture.comm_.jpg?itok=ldjNWKQx" title="Kaohsiung Exhibition Centre, Kaohsiung Taiwan. Image by coxarchitecture.com" width="580"></a>

<figcaption>Kaohsiung Exhibition Centre, Kaohsiung Taiwan. Image by coxarchitecture.com</figcaption></figure><p>Another project from Cox Architecture won through an international design competition is Kaohsiung’s first public harbour development, the Kaohsiung Exhibition Centre.<br>
Linking the city to the waterfront via pedestrian access was key to the design of the centre.<br>
Designed as a hybrid facility, the building comprises of exhibition and convention spaces which are flexible to host a large variety of events and simultaneous meetings.<br><br>
The enclosed roof utilises an alternating shell structural system to which substantially reduces steel tonnage and successfully resists the strong harbour winds and seismic forces.<br>
Skylights allow the building to respond to its natural environment with the ability to fill the spaces with light and ventilation which improves the overall sustainability. <br>
It was important to Cox Architecture to design a structure that responds to its surroundings and is an expression of the Taiwanese people and was a conscious and thoughtful process. <br><br>
Awards:<br>
Excellence Award, Chinese Institute of Engineers 2014.</p>

<p><br>
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Nick Dante

Australian Architects making Global waves

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<p>Recent house valuation <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/forward-planning/investment-strategy/property-news-and-insights/117349-westpac-s-full-circle-forecasting-15-per-cent-house-gains-post-covid?utm_source=Property+Observer+List&amp;utm_campaign=08a563a817-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_09_28_COPY_02&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=0_a523fbfccb-08a563a817-245657905"><u><strong>forecasts prepared by Westpac economists</strong></u></a> found that despite minor drops in Australian home prices due to COVID-19, homes were set for a positive rebound by December next year. </p>

<p>The forecast projected a staggering 15% increase over two years across several Australian states. </p>

<blockquote>
<p><em><strong>"Apart from Victoria, where we expect prices to fall in the December quarter, we expect that in the December and March quarters in the other states, prices will be relatively stable with some upside pressure."</strong></em></p>
</blockquote>

<p><em>Bill Evans, Westpac's chief economist </em></p>

<p>The economists have also provided positive projections for Q2 of 2021, with the anticipated 10% drop in house prices being revised to 5% due to the economic resilience proven thus far. </p>

<blockquote>
<p><em><strong>"We are much more optimistic about the pace of price appreciation over the following two years."</strong></em></p>
</blockquote>

<p>The news is likely to reinstate greater confidence in the market post-pandemic. With such low-interest rates and several off-the-plan projects still commencing construction, we could see an uptake in apartment sales in the coming months. </p>

<p>We asked INPG Sales Director, Andrew Steele, what this meant for off-the-plan property buyers. Andrew commented that finding a property nearing completion by December next year could be a wise option.</p>

<blockquote>
<p><em><strong>“This is great news and reflects the market more realistically that the doom and gloom stories we’ve heard over the past few months. Buyers should be buoyed by Westpac’s revised outlook and look to snap up opportunities now, especially off-the-plan properties due to be completed around the time Westpac predicts significant price growth.”</strong></em></p>
</blockquote>

<p><em>Andrew Steele, INPG Sales Director</em></p>

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Olivia Round

Westpac economists project significant home value increase from late 2021

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>This week we have received significant economic and policy updates from across the globe. From these, it is evident that Australia and New Zealand are both in a good position to rebound.</p>
<p>Beginning at home in Australia, this week’s August labour force update delivered a significant upside surprise, with 111k jobs created in the month and a 0.7ppt decline in the unemployment rate. This result leaves the unemployment rate at 6.8%, almost a full percentage point below our and the market’s expectation for August ahead of the release.</p>
<p>The gain for hours worked was materially lower than for employment, coming in at just 0.1%. However, this was due to a deep decline in hours worked in Victoria (-4.8%); the other states meanwhile experienced a 1.8% gain.</p>
<p>July and August’s employment gains mean the RBA’s 10% unemployment rate forecast for end-2020 is unlikely to be seen. To see such an outcome now, 400-500k jobs would have to be lost by December. This seems improbable, particularly with government support running into 2021. Westpac still anticipates however that the unemployment rate will rise to around 7.8% in late-2020/ early-2021 and that, come end-2021, it will still be elevated at around 7.5%.</p>
<p>The RBA is mindful of the economic damage of an extended period of high unemployment and so continues to make clear their willingness to support the real economy as long as necessary. Notably, in the September meeting minutes there was a clear focus on the state governments and the support they can offer the economy during a recession, particularly by borrowing to invest in infrastructure. Keeping borrowing rates low aids this opportunity.</p>
<p>Westpac Economics also made a significant revision to a key forecast this week. Previously we had anticipated a 10% decline in national house prices from April 2020’s peak to June 2021. Now however, we believe that decline is likely to be limited to about 5%, with 2.7% of that decline already seen. There are two key justifications for this view change, as highlighted by Chief Economist Bill Evans.</p>
<p>First is the benefit that has come to households in 2020 from lower interest rates, particularly as a result of the sharp drop in fixed rates to levels well below variable. Second are the upward revisions we have recently made to our growth and labour market views. Combined, these factors will support affordability, minimising further declines in 2020-21 and laying the foundation for a strong rebound in prices to new historic highs.</p>
<p>Turning to New Zealand, Q2 GDP came in in line with our NZ team’s expectations. GDP jolted 12.2% lower in the three months to June because of the lockdown measures implemented to stop COVID-19. All of the Q2 detail is available in their bulletin. But what needs to be emphasised here is that, while NZ’s lockdown was one of the strictest in the world, it was also highly successful, allowing the economy to rapidly restart. Our NZ team continue to anticipate a strong rebound over the second half of this year, leaving GDP within 5% of its pre-COVID trend. However, continued border closures will limit further gains in 2021.</p>
<p>On to the US and UK. From monetary authorities in both jurisdictions this week came clear guidance that policy will remain extraordinarily accommodative as far as the eye can see.</p>
<p>From the Bank of England, there was a commitment to assess the potential benefits of a move to negative interest rates. While the FOMC did not signal a clear intent to investigate the use of another policy instrument, their revised forecasts and qualitative guidance made clear that policy would remain at least as accommodative as it is currently for an extended period. Indeed, the median view of the Committee is that the federal funds rate will remain on hold till at least end-2023, at which time the unemployment rate would still be above its pre-COVID level and inflation only getting back to 2.0%yr. The statement only made a commitment to sustain purchases of US Treasury and mortgage-backed securities at their current monthly pace of around $80bn and $40bn respectively over coming months. However, the continued inclusion of the phrase “at least” with reference to the current pace makes clear the Committee’s concern over downside risks and implies that a partial then full tapering of asset purchases is also a long way off.</p>
<p>Combined with a broad-based recovery in the global economy, highly-accommodative FOMC policy supports our view that the Australian dollar will continue to rally to USD0.75 end-2020 and USD0.80 end-2021, a rate it is likely to sustain to mid-2022.</p>
<p><strong>ELLIOT CLARKE</strong><em><strong> </strong>is a senior economist at Westpac </em></p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Australia in a good position to rebound, especially the dollar: Elliot Clarke

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<p class="legacy">GUEST OBSERVATION</p>
<p>The Australia-China relationship is unravelling at a pace that could not have been contemplated just six months ago.</p>
<p>In recent days, the ABC’s Bill Birtles and the Australian Financial Review’s Mike Smith were <a href="https://theconversation.com/journalists-have-become-diplomatic-pawns-in-chinas-relations-with-the-west-setting-a-worrying-precedent-145749">forced to flee</a> China following intimidation by security agencies and the imposition of an exit ban, later lifted following negotiations led by Australian diplomats.</p>
<p>Chinese media outlets then <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-09/chinese-scholars-have-visas-revoked-as-diplomatic-crisis-grows/12644022">alleged</a> that Australia’s security agencies raided the properties of several Chinese journalists in June in connection with a foreign interference investigation involving NSW MP <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/chinese-media-links-journalist-raids-to-labor-mp-shaoquett-moselmane/news-story/412f77bb439a079a7d0baf86ac63eed3">Shaoquett Moselmane</a>.</p>
<p>With no sign of the political tensions between Australia and China easing, the big danger in all of this is the erosion of the economic and people-to-people ties that were once the glue holding the relationship together.</p>
<p>If this goes, the events of recent days might only be a starting point in a broader bilateral decoupling that offers little prospect for the protection — let alone advancement — of Australia’s national interest.</p>
<p data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props='{"tweetId":"1303571394949652481"}'><strong>Cause for optimism amid declining ties</strong></p>
<p>Political tensions between the two countries <a href="https://www.australiachinarelations.org/content/australias-tilt-china">date back</a> to at least 2017. Apart from a brief “reset” when then-Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull gave an upbeat <a href="https://www.malcolmturnbull.com.au/media/speech-at-the-university-of-new-south-wales-sydney-7-august-2018">speech</a> on China at the University of New South Wales in August 2018, the trajectory of ties at the government level has been downhill since then.</p>
<p>Yet, the economic relationship continued to flourish, with two-way trade <a href="https://www.dfat.gov.au/trade/resources/trade-statistics/Pages/trade-time-series-data">growing</a> from $183.5 billion in 2017 to $251.4 billion in 2019.</p>
<p>And people-to-people ties appeared to offer cause for optimism, too.</p>
<p>The number of Chinese <a href="https://internationaleducation.gov.au/research/International-Student-Data/Pages/default.aspx">students</a> and <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3401.0">tourists</a> arriving in Australia showed few signs of peaking.</p>
<p>Vigorous cooperation was seen in other areas, such as Chinese researchers emerging as Australia’s <a href="https://www.australiachinarelations.org/content/australia-china-science-boom">leading</a> partners in producing scientific and research publications.</p>
<p><strong>The belief ‘black hands’ are now at work</strong></p>
<p>In the background, however, there were signs of worrying developments.</p>
<p>Ten years ago, it wasn’t hard for foreign academics to find Chinese colleagues willing to talk openly about politically sensitive issues in a private setting, or even modestly depart from the Chinese government’s line in a public forum, such as an academic conference.</p>
<p>But in June, Frances Adamson, Australia’s former ambassador to China and now head of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, <a href="https://www.dfat.gov.au/news/speech/frances-adamson-dfat-secretary-50th-episode-australia-world-podcast">reflected</a> that while China has academics who have spent their lives working on and with Australia,</p>
<p><em>when I read now what they say publicly, that nuance that existed before is gone.</em></p>
<p>This unwillingness to depart from the official line stems from the heightened censorship and illiberal turn China has taken in recent years. This has been instigated by the Chinese Communist Party — and in particular, President Xi Jinping — as they have become increasingly paranoid their grip on power is under attack.</p>
<p><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357159/original/file-20200909-20-1xolwi1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></p>
<p><em> <span class="caption">China has become increasingly illiberal and bellicose since Xi came to power.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mark Schiefelbein/AP</span></span></em></p>
<p>A prominent Chinese government <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-extradition-usa/china-tells-us-to-remove-black-hands-from-hong-kong-idUSKCN1UI0QJ">narrative</a> now alleges “black hands” connected to “foreign forces” are at work trying to undermine the country’s leadership.</p>
<p>This sensitivity has been sharpened by US government rhetoric. In July, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo stopped not far short of <a href="https://www.state.gov/communist-china-and-the-free-worlds-future/">declaring</a> a policy of regime change in China, saying</p>
<p><em>We must also engage and empower the Chinese people – a dynamic, freedom-loving people who are completely distinct from the Chinese Communist Party.</em></p>
<p><em>But changing the CCP’s behaviour cannot be the mission of the Chinese people alone. Free nations have to work to defend freedom.</em></p>
<p>While the Australian government has deliberately put distance between itself and the Trump administration, Beijing remains wedded to the idea Australia is a US lackey, despite significant <a href="https://www.australiachinarelations.org/content/australian-policy-prc-it-independent-us%E2%80%99">evidence</a> to the contrary.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>‘Are we actually safe here now?’</strong></p>
<p>Australians appear to have already been caught up in the consequences.</p>
<p>Academic and blogger Yang Hengjun, a China-born Australian citizen, has been detained since January 2019, <a href="http://au.china-embassy.org/eng/sghdxwfb_1/t1761341.htm">accused</a> of “engaging in criminal activities endangering [China’s] national security”.</p>
<p><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357164/original/file-20200909-20-1qkrwi0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></p>
<p><em> <span class="caption">Yang Hengjun has denied Chinese reports he had confessed to espionage.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP</span></span></em></p>
<p>And last month, the Chinese-Australian journalist Cheng Lei was also <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-08/australian-anchor-cheng-lei-china-endanger-national-security/12642596">detained</a> under suspicion of carrying out “criminal activities” endangering China’s national security.</p>
<p>This came just weeks after the Australian government changed its travel risk <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-07/dfat-changes-travel-advice-for-australians-in-china/12431134">advisory</a> to warn Australians might be “arbitrarily detained” in China.</p>
<p>These moves have had a chilling effect on the people-to-people ties that once formed the ballast of China-Australia relations.</p>
<p>PwC’s Asia practice leader, Andrew Parker, <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/australian-journalists-flee-china-as-cheng-lei-is-charged-with-endangering-security/news-story/2b9b2649c70450b5d48c9390d1a3955b">said</a> some in the business community are starting to ask the question, “are we actually safe here now”?</p>
<p><strong>Concerns for Chinese academics in Australia, too</strong></p>
<p>But importantly, not all the developments are one-way.</p>
<p>The ABC has <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-09/chinese-scholars-have-visas-revoked-as-diplomatic-crisis-grows/12644022">reported</a> that two leading Chinese academics in the field of Australian studies were also caught up in the investigation into the alleged Chinese plot to infiltrate the NSW parliament, resulting in their visas being revoked.</p>
<p>One of the academics, Chen Hong, the director of the Australian Studies Centre at East China Normal University, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-09/chinese-scholars-have-visas-revoked-as-diplomatic-crisis-grows/12644022">rejected</a> the allegations.</p>
<p>There were signs before the dramatic developments of this week that some Chinese journalists and academics were becoming wary of engaging with foreigners due to rhetoric directed at China, as well as policy actions taken by Australia.</p>
<p>In one of his last stories for the AFR before leaving China, Smith <a href="https://www.afr.com/world/asia/china-think-tanks-sever-academic-ties-as-hostilities-rise-20200826-p55pmz">reported</a> that Chinese academics had told him they were cutting off communications out of</p>
<p><em>fear they will be accused of being Communist Party infiltrators.</em></p>
<p>Some Chinese observers believe national security concerns are not the only factor in what is unfolding in Australia.</p>
<p>Moselmane’s lawyers are <a href="https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/nsw-mp-shaoquett-moselmane-wants-investigation-after-police-raided-his-home/news-story/7306a6ad90fe1dfd99af4d59655ee82f">seeking an investigation</a> into whether the media were tipped off before the Australian Federal Police raid on his home in June.</p>
<p>This possibility raises questions about whether the source of the alleged leak saw an opportunity for domestic political gain or to push another barrow, such as adding to Australia-China tensions.</p>
<p>At the same time, academics at Australian universities, many of whom were born in China, have been put under the spotlight in News Corp <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/ccp-weaponising-our-research/news-story/0c3fb0cb8a3578296339aca252c42a8c">outlets</a> for allegedly having links to the Chinese government. The fact that none of these academics have to date been identified by Australian law enforcement agencies as having done anything wrong appears to count for little.</p>
<p>It’s becoming clear the fears of being caught up as “<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-08/bill-birtles-mike-smith-evacuated-china-safety-concerns/12638786">pawns in a diplomatic tussle</a>” (as Birtles described it) are real now for journalists, academics and business people — those who used to believe they could continue to work in both countries, without significant concerns about political disputes.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145836/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;"></p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/james-laurenceson-203">James Laurenceson</a>, Director and Professor, Australia-China Relations Institute (ACRI), <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-technology-sydney-936">University of Technology Sydney</a></em></p>
<p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-australia-china-relationship-is-unravelling-faster-than-we-could-have-imagined-145836">original article</a>.</em></p>
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Why the Australia-China relationship is unravelling faster than we could have imagined

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<p>Yesterday, the Federal Government <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/homebuilder-program-drive-economic-activity-across-residential-construction-sector">announced</a> a new grant for Australians looking to build or renovate their homes.</p>

<p>Until 31 December 2020, the government’s HomeBuilder program will hand out a total of $25,000 for those who are eligible. This grant follows a series of stimulus packages introduced by the Morrison government in efforts to save the Australian economy from COVID-19. </p>

<p>Summarised are <a href="/news/everything-you-need-to-know-about-australias-25-000-homebuilder-grant-how-much-off-the-plan-homebuyers-could-save">further details of the grant</a>:</p>

<ul>
<li>The grant will be open to all owner-occupiers and not just first home buyers.</li>
	<li>Applicants must be aged 18 years or older</li>
	<li>Applicants must be Australian citizens</li>
	<li>To be eligible, income caps of $125,000 for singles and $200,000 for couples apply. This will be reviewed based on the applicants’ latest assessable income</li>
	<li>For new home renovations, a national dwelling price cap of $750,000 will apply</li>
	<li>For existing home renovations, a renovation price range of $150,000 to $750,000 will apply.</li>
	<li>Construction must commence within 3 months of the contract date</li>
</ul>
<p>This program will complement the existing <a href="http://www.firsthome.gov.au/">national First Home Owner program</a>, stamp duty concessions and other grant schemes. Up to $680 million is expected to be given out to 27,000 Australians. </p>

<p>The National Treasury has provided a <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-06/Fact_sheet_HomeBuilder.pdf">fact sheet</a> and an <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-06/HomeBuilder_Frequently_asked_questions.pdf">FAQ sheet</a> for those who are interested in applying for the grant.</p>
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COVID-19: Federal government announces $25,000 grant for home builders and renovators

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<p>The COVID-19 pandemic and bushfires at the start of the year dealt a huge blow to Australia. As of yesterday, official figures have confirmed that the Australian economy has officially felt the impact of both devastations, with its GDP shrinking by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2020.</p>

<p>Bruce Hockman, Chief Economist at the<a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs%40.nsf/mediareleasesbyCatalogue/C9973AC780DDFD3FCA257F690011045C?OpenDocument"> Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)</a> said: “This was the slowest through-the-year growth since September 2009 when Australia was in the midst of the Global Financial Crisis and captures just the beginning of the expected economic effects of COVID-19.”</p>

<p>Private demand fell by 0.8 percent, and net trade contributed only 0.5 percent to the total GDP. Imports of goods and services fell by 3.9 percent and 13.6 percent respectively, while Australian exports dropped by 12.8 percent.</p>

<p>Lockdown restrictions, a slowdown in tourism and rising unemployment from COVID-19 and the bushfires pushed the economy to recession. However, the Morrison government’s introduction of two <a href="/expert-insights/buying/how-our-state-and-federal-governments-can-support-the-property-industry-during-covid-19">stimulus packages</a> to keep Australians financially protected has seen some results: gross disposable income increased by 6.2 percent and household saving to income ratio rose to 5.5 percent.</p>

<p>COVID-19’s impact on Australia's property market is still one that is difficult to predict. Nevertheless, given the <a href="/news/qa-urban-sits-down-with-idle-wealth-director-torey-hansel-to-discuss-the-current-position-of-the-australian-property-market">resilient</a> nature of Australia’s housing market, experts are generally <a href="/expert-insights/buying/why-the-real-estate-industry-must-replace-fear-with-opportunity-during-the-covid-19-crisis">optimistic</a> that Australia will be back on track faster than most.</p>
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Australia enters first recession in 29 years, yet experts remain optimistic about the property market

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<p>Frasers Property Limited has announced leadership changes for Australia effective October 1, 2020 when Anthony Boyd (as seen in the main photo) will be appointed as Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Frasers Property Australia.</p>
<p>Mr Boyd currently serves as Chief Financial Officer at Frasers Property Australia.</p>
<p>As CEO, Mr Boyd will succeed Rod Fehring, who will remain on the board of directors of Frasers Property Australia Pty Limited as the newly appointed Executive Chairmanand will continue to serve as Chairman of the management boards of Frasers Property Industrial and Frasers Property UK. Mr Fehring will succeed Olivier Lim who will step down as non-executive Chairman of Frasers Property Australia Pty Limited and remain as Advisor to the Group.</p>
<p>“Today’s announcement is a further evolution of Frasers Property that highlights our bench strength. Rod has very ably led our Australian business over the last five years. He has played a critical part in the formation of our integrated industrial &amp; logistics platform, which includes asset portfolios in Australia and Europe and provides the asset management services to the newly merged Frasers Logistics &amp; Commercial Trust (“FLCT”). Rod has also been instrumental in establishing our UK platform in close partnership with ourUK leadership,” said Panote Sirivadhanabhakdi, Group Chief Executive Officer (GCEO), Frasers PropertyLimited.</p>
<p>“Over the last two years, Rod and I have discussed the evolution of Frasers Property’s platforms and of his role. With Anthony succeeding him, I am confident of Anthony’s ability and commitment to furtherbuild our business in Australia.”</p>
<p>From October 1, 2020, Mr Fehring will step out of his role as CEO of Frasers Property Australia as part of a planned succession. Rod will continue to provide sponsor oversight of FLCT by continuing to sit on the board of Frasers Logistics &amp; Commercial Asset Management Pte Ltd (the manager of FLCT).</p>
<p>“Leading Frasers Property Australia has been an honour and privilege and I look forward to supporting Frasers Property Group’s continual growth in a different capacity,” said Rod Fehring, CEO, Frasers Property Australia.</p>
<p>Mr Boyd will be responsible for driving the residential, commercial, retail and mixed-use development initiatives in Australia. He will be reporting directly to Mr Sirivadhanabhakdi. Mr Boyd has been with Frasers Property Australia since May 2005. He has held senior finance and residential business unit roles during this time, prior to being appointed CFO in June last year.</p>
<p>“I am excited to lead Frasers Property Australia as we continue to leverage our knowledge and capabilities to deliver value to our customers. Rod has been instrumental in realising the vision for Frasers Property Australia in the last five years and we are grateful for his long-sighted leadership. He will be leaving an indelible legacy and will continue to be an invaluable resource as our Executive Chairman,” said AnthonyBoyd.</p>
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