<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-5" data-turn="user" data-turn-id="e65dbe94-e3b6-47f7-b62a-9cbb30c9bf79" data-turn-id-container="e65dbe94-e3b6-47f7-b62a-9cbb30c9bf79" dir="auto">Time &amp; Place’s plans to transform the former David Jones factory building in Surry Hills into a mixed-use residential precinct have gone on exhibition through the NSW Government’s In-fill Affordable Housing pathway.</section>

<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-6" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:f4d533b7-64a5-413d-86fd-5c99649c2b73-2" data-turn-id-container="request-WEB:f4d533b7-64a5-413d-86fd-5c99649c2b73-2" dir="auto">
<p data-end="577" data-start="264">The Marlborough House proposal, lodged for the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marlborough-house-47-97-marlborough-street-surry-hills-nsw-2010">47-97 Marlborough Street</a> site, would see the adaptive reuse of the heritage-listed warehouse building alongside the construction of new residential additions and a separate apartment building on the northern portion of the site.</p>

<p data-end="577" data-start="264">The proposal seeks approval for 172 apartments across three buildings, including 15 per cent affordable housing managed by a community housing provider for at least 15 years from occupation.</p>

<p data-end="577" data-start="264"><img alt="Marlborough" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5d1d3c2a-bf13-47d6-a335-7c01102cdee1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.29.36%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=cjMYrbR.BLUlWH4dar0RVDDo0bG.u2YT" /></p>

<p><em>Interior view from the Northern Building Penthouse overlooking the park</em></p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="1070" data-start="809">The redevelopment is planned for the prominent 3,413 sqm site bounded by Marlborough Street, Goodlet Street and Lansdowne Street, directly opposite Eddie Ward Park and around 200 metres from the Surry Hills light rail stop.</p>

<p data-end="1246" data-start="1072">Time &amp; Place acquired the former David Jones building in 2024, marking the first time the property had changed hands in around 50 years.</p>

<p data-end="1483" data-start="1248">Designed by Wardle, the proposal centres around the adaptive reuse of the former David Jones factory, originally constructed between 1913 and 1935 in the Inter-War Chicagoesque architectural style.</p>

<p data-end="1854" data-start="1485">Wardle noted in its Architectural Design Report that the building “occupies a significant place in the industrial and cultural history of Surry Hills” and at its peak was “the largest department store manufacturing facility in Australia, employing over 800 people and fuelling the growth of Sydney’s fashion and retail industries.”</p>

<p data-end="2059" data-start="1856">The practice said the project positions itself “not as an isolated intervention, but as a contributor to the civic, social, and architectural grain of the precinct.”</p>

<p data-end="2318" data-start="2061">The proposal would deliver 75 apartments within the retained southern heritage building, 59 apartments within the central addition, and a further 38 apartments within the new northern building fronting Lansdowne Street.</p>

<p data-end="2486" data-start="2320">Planning documents show the scheme would comprise a mix of heritage apartments, new-build apartments, townhouses and penthouses.</p>

<p data-end="2486" data-start="2320"><img alt="Marlborough" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="57758518-40a3-4b83-958c-d06e96a2cffa" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.29.42%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=VerlX9ST5xgBi8.1_YRsqdWTJeT6ygjs" /><em>Interior View of the Heritage Building Apartment</em></p>

<p data-end="2814" data-start="2488">The development would also include a ground-floor retail tenancy on the corner of Marlborough and Lansdowne streets, rooftop communal open space, a landscaped pedestrian link along the western edge of the site, and basement parking accessed from Lansdowne Street via a car stacker system.</p>

<p data-end="3188" data-start="2816">&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="3625" data-start="3404">The scheme emerged from a competitive design process run by Urbis, with Wardle ultimately selected as the winning architect ahead of FJC Studio, TZG, Architectus and Wilkinson Eyre.</p>

<p data-end="4003" data-start="3627">The Design Integrity Panel later described several aspects of the Wardle scheme as fundamental to the project, including “the stepped character of the new addition to the north of the site”, the landscaped western pedestrian link, and the “garden arrival” experience separating the original Marlborough House from the heritage addition.</p>

<p data-end="4149" data-start="4005">Wardle’s design heavily references the site’s industrial and heritage history, while also responding to the surrounding Surry Hills streetscape.</p>

<p data-end="4488" data-start="4151">The Architectural Design Report describes Surry Hills as “a finely grained neighbourhood with beautiful and expressive brickworks throughout the suburb,” with the proposal introducing a material palette intended to sit comfortably alongside the existing warehouse fabric and neighbouring terraces.</p>

<p data-end="4609" data-start="4490">The report also outlines the project’s relationship with Eddie Ward Park and the broader landscape context of the area.</p>

<p data-end="4894" data-start="4611">“Marlborough House occupies a site of deep cultural memory and the neighbouring Eddie Ward Park is of local ecological significance, where natural systems, topography, and stories have long shaped human experience,” Wardle noted in the report.</p>

<p data-end="5090" data-start="4896">The architects said the proposal sought to “rebind built form to Country” through landscape, materiality and the adaptive reuse of the heritage structure.</p>

<p data-end="5090" data-start="4896"><img alt="Marlborough House" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9ae3f2f9-c85f-477a-a6f8-b43f6cb97c41" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.29.53%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=B.qUCLqRvJOR.n9CvYcTpaknIX9LuqKZ" /></p>

<p data-end="5304" data-start="5092">The project is also being progressed under the NSW Government’s in-fill affordable housing provisions, allowing developments that include affordable housing to access additional height and floor space incentives.</p>

<p data-end="5498" data-start="5306">Under the plans, 2,593 sqm of the project’s floor space would be dedicated to affordable housing, slightly exceeding the required 15 per cent threshold.</p>

<p data-end="6154" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="5806">In its Design Excellence Strategy, Urbis said the project aimed to “sensitively adapt and enhance the heritage-listed building on site through alterations and additions that preserve its historical significance” while delivering “high-quality market and infill affordable housing development in Surry Hills.”</p>

<p>Time &amp; Place has been one of the most active developers nationally in the last 12 to 24 months. Late last year they completed&nbsp;The Queensbridge in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/southbank-vic-3006">Southbank</a>, a mixed-use tower with 353 apartments and a hotel. They are currently selling Park Modern, 246 apartments near the famous Botanic Gardens in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/south-melbourne-vic-3205">South Melbourne</a>, and have future projects, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-wilmot-173-burke-road-28-hope-street-glen-iris-vic-3146">The Wilmot</a>&nbsp;in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/glen-iris-vic-3146">Glen Iris</a>, the redevelopment of the Northcote Plaza, and another tower in South Melbourne.</p>

<p>The developer broke into Sydney just a few years ago with Two Tides in Manly. They have another project nearby, which is at the ultra-luxury end of the market on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/shoreline-manly-beach-89-90-north-steyne-manly">North Steyne</a>, fronting the beach.</p>

<p>It is also continuing to work through the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-time-place-settles-on-design-for-the-chimes-potts-point-redevelopment">redevelopment of The Chimes building</a> on Macleay Street in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/potts-point-nsw-2011">Potts Point</a>, as well as a project on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/time-place-to-take-on-mosman-apartment-market">Mosman's Redan Street</a>.</p>
</section>


Joel Robinson

First look: Time & Place unveils Marlborough House redevelopment designs for former David Jones warehouse in Surry Hills

<p>The residential transformation of St Kilda Road is set to continue into with more new apartment plans for the sought-after boulevard.</p>

<p>Wing Tai Asia has lodged plans for a major residential tower at 464-466 St Kilda Road, replacing the former VACC House with an 18-storey mixed-use development designed around a retained heritage podium and a sculpted contemporary tower.</p>

<p>The proposal, prepared under Victoria’s Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway, would deliver 325 apartments and ground-floor retail across the prominent 4,653 sqm boulevard site in Melbourne’s St Kilda Road North Precinct.</p>

<p>The project centres on the adaptive reuse of the site’s heritage-listed VACC Building, an eight-storey office designed by Bernard Evans that has occupied the address for decades. Planning documents state the development would involve “carefully dismantling and conserving off-site the original metal fabric of the podium visible from St Kilda Road,” before reinstating it as the defining frontage of the new scheme.</p>

<p>Above the restored podium, Wing Tai is proposing a curvilinear residential tower. The scheme includes 172 one-bedroom apartments, 63 two-bedroom apartments, 66 three-bedroom apartments, and 24 four-bedroom apartments, alongside two ground-floor food and beverage tenancies fronting St Kilda Road.</p>

<p>The tower has been designed with substantial articulation and variable setbacks to minimise perceived bulk and maintain view corridors along the boulevard. Urbis, which prepared the planning report, said the design “has been significantly articulated through a curvilinear design” with “an interplay with materials, façade expression and depth” to create visual separation and visual interest.</p>

<p>The proposal also includes 254 basement car spaces, landscaped pedestrian links connecting St Kilda Road and Queens Lane, and a biophilic landscape strategy featuring canopy trees, raised planters, cascading greenery and a glass oculus pool overlooking the eastern frontage.</p>

<p>Planning documents confirm the $270.1 million development will contribute 3 per cent of project costs to the Social Housing Growth Fund as part of the application process.</p>

<p>Wing Tai acquired the St Kilda Road property in 2018 alongside Abacus Property Group for $95.38 million, before later consolidating ownership of the site. The property previously served as the Victorian Automobile Chamber of Commerce headquarters for around 60 years.</p>

<p data-end="345" data-start="110">The transformation of the St Kilda Rd boulevard is already beginning to materialise, with a number of high-profile projects recently completed, launched, or approaching launch as developers continue to back the long-term appeal of the precinct.</p>

<p data-end="689" data-start="347">Among the most notable recent completions is Louise by Samuel Property Group, just off the strip on Queens Lane, the same pocket Hirsch &amp; Faigen recently launched The Queensbury. Mirvac is too on the same street with The Albertine, which is approaching completion.</p>

<p data-end="689" data-start="347">Dexus recently secured approval for its slice of St Kilda Road, while Gurner also has approved plans for the precinct.</p>


Wing Tai unveils 325-apartment St Kilda Road tower on former VACC House site

<p>Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.</p>

<p>The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.</p>

<p>The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.</p>

<p>The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" /></p>

<p>SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.</p>

<p>“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.</p>

<p>The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.</p>

<p>“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" /></p>

<p>The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.</p>

<p>Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.</p>

<p>The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.</p>

<p>COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" /></p>

<p>“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.</p>

<p>The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.</p>

<p>The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.</p>

<p>Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.</p>

<p><em>Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a></em></p>


First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.</p>

<p>The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.</p>

<p>The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" /></p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.</p>

<p>SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”</p>

<p>The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" /></p>

<p>The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.</p>

<p>A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.</p>

<p>Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" /></p>

<p>The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.</p>

<p>Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.</p>

<p>The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.</p>


First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

<p>Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."</p>

<p>Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;</p>


Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

APRA

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<p><span>Aussie Home Loans founder John Symond has repeated his concern that APRA's clampdown on lending to local housing investors may be giving foreign investors an advantage in the market.</span></p>
<p><span>John Symond suggested the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority's 10% a year cap on housing investor credit growth was having no impact on foreigners buying property.</span></p>
<p><span>"I'm not for one minute saying you know, shoo our foreign investors away, this country survives on foreign investment," he told a parliamentary inquiry in Sydney last week.</span></p>
<p><span><a href="/expert-insights/finance/chinese-buyers-to-benefit-from-apra-crackdown-on-local-borrowers-john-symond">He first raised concerns in May</a></span><span>.</span></p>
<p><span>"But you've got to have a level playing field, and if you have a look at the amount of foreign investment that has come in and bought up housing, particularly in cities like Sydney and Melbourne over the last 24 months. I know, as far as Asia, the numbers I've seen, has more than doubled,"  he said.</span></p>
<p><span>"Now they don't have any APRA restrictions, because they don't toddle off to a bank or a building society and borrow their money."</span></p>
<p><span>APRA has defended recent efforts to slow down lending to investors to the federal government inquiry into home ownership, the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics Inquiry into Home Ownership.</span></p>
<p><span>But the APRA chairman Wayne Byers said the full effect would not be felt for some time, especially how the crackdown affects the balance between major and non-major lenders.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">“Given implementation is still 11 months away, it is too early to assess the impact of this change on the housing loan market.  </span></p>
<p><span>“The extent to which those banks are capable of repricing their business in response will provide an interesting insight into the extent to which the largest banks are subject to competitive pressure from the range of other housing lenders present in the market.”</span></p>
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

John Symond fears APRA's crackdown leaves unlevel playing field 

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<p>A crackdown on speculative investor lending can only be good for the property market.</p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The pressure placed on banks by Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA), to curb lending to investors, will ultimately create a more stable market and lessen any risk poised by speculative buyers.</span></p>
<p>It is hoped that the changes will also take some heat out of section of the Sydney and Melbourne property prices. </p>
<p>We are not expecting it will create a big difference as population growth and an undersupply of homes should keep buyer demand in both markets strong.</p>
<p>Property remains a much more stable and secure investment than other assets.</p>
<p>And because of this investors have come to residential real estate significantly in the past couple of years, probably to the detriment of the equities market. </p>
<p>Many are sophisticated and more in tune with the market than in the past because they are now able to undertake research or reengage real estate agents who are now` better informed on valuation and yields.</p>
<p>As long as they stay wary of speculative markets and stick with more stable markets where they can buy with a degree of confidence.</p>
<p>While nothing is without risks, Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide are unlikely to see a dramatic increase in rental vacancies.</p>
<p>The reality is that people have to live somewhere and there remains a fundamental shortage in the major markets of properties versus population growth.</p>
<p>Investing in property offers a lower risk in comparison to other asset classes.</p>
<p>In the background, however, banks are beginning to lower their valuations to avoid excessive speculation with demand for property being strong. </p>
<p>Investors are typically unemotional when buying assets; while owner-occupiers are buying a lifestyle.</p>
<p>You have to be very careful when creating a property portfolio that you are in line with the value of the asset as determined by market and the banks.</p>
<p>Typically investors will retract if there is talk around prices coming back or valuations being different to the market. They are rationale investors focused on yields and capital growth. </p>
<p>The good news is most are well covered.</p>
<p>Even significant movement wouldn’t be enough to cause the sudden flow of distressed properties coming into the market.</p>
<p>Most property are not excessively geared and as long as they have income, investors will ride out any lows. </p>
<p><em> </em></p>
<p><em>Grant Harrod is chief executive office of JL Hooker.</em></p>
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Property investors will ride out any market lows: Grant Harrod

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<p>The fundamental cynicism of major banks has been on display in the past week, with lenders exploiting APRA’s anti-investor measures to boost their profits.</p>
<p>Most major lenders have lifted interest rates for investors and then tried to represent the cash grab as a “we had no choice” situation caused by the regulators.</p>
<p>There is no justification for the interest rate hike. Lenders have already tightened their lending criteria in a number of ways designed to eliminate many fringe dwellers from the possibility of borrowing to buy investment properties.</p>
<p>The interest rate hike is clearly not motivated by a desire to further restrict investor activity. It’s simply a profit-boosting play which can be explained away, conveniently but dishonestly, as a consequence of APRA moves.</p>
<p>How do we know?  Because the big banks and other lenders have lifted interest rates on existing investor loans, not just on new ones.</p>
<p>Increasing interest rates on existing loans does nothing to reduce investor borrowing to buy real estate. All it does is boost bank profits. </p>
<p>If they were fair dinkum in their claims that they’re acting “as part of our commitment in meeting APRA’s benchmark” (as Westpac tried to claim), they would lift rates on new loans only.</p>
<p><span>The Bank of Queensland, which lifted its standard variable rate for investor loans 29 basis points, has a master of weasel words on staff called Matt Baxby who came up with this classic to justify the unjustifiable this week: “</span>We are adopting a prudent position that is aligned with the market and balances our own growth objectives with the risks associated with investor lending in general and the overall growth of investor lending in the market as a whole.”</p>
<p>If you can make sense of that statement, please write and let me know. I think a reasonable translation is: “We’re shafting a significant proportion of our existing customers but we’re hoping you won’t notice.”</p>
<p>Beyond that, the APRA measures and lenders’ response to them are an extraordinary case of overkill by bureaucrats who clearly don’t have a grip on market reality. </p>
<p>The faceless APRA boffins who make their pronouncements never stand up to be identified or face any scrutiny of their actions. If we had the opportunity to question them, whoever they are, I’m quite certain we would discover their understanding of real estate markets is wafer thin.</p>
<p>Essentially, Sydney is having a boom and all of Australia is being punished for it.</p>
<p>Taking punitive measures that apply nationally in response to an issue in Sydney is tantamount to amputating a leg to cure a sprained ankle.</p>
<p><span>I note </span>that the Property Investment Professionals of Australia (PIPA) has questioned the decision by lenders to increase interest rates for both new and established property investors, suggesting a different approach should’ve been taken to ensure a sustainable property market.</p>
<p>PIPA chair Ben Kingsley said APRA’s pressure tactics to force individual lenders to lock out investors have raised both concerns and question marks for the industry.</p>
<p>“Increasing borrowing costs for investors who bought into the market some time ago seems unfair and detracts from what should be the common goal of creating a balanced property market,” he said.</p>
<p>PIPA suggested that more targeted measures to slow new investor lending in certain areas, such as decreasing and restricting borrowing power for new investors in locations where the market is particularly heated, would have been a better approach.</p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Couldn’t agree more.</span></p>
<p><em>TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Fundamental cynicism of major banks on display: Terry Ryder

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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">July had the largest monthly increase in residential listings nationally since 2010, with the number of properties for sale hitting 348,903 - up 4.2% when compared to July 2014 and an increase of 3.8% from June 2015.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">According to SQM Research, the largest house price rises are in Sydney and Melbourne and are the greatest since 2008.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">SQM Research managing director Louis Christopher </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">believe the results do represent an indication that the measures undertaken by APRA in slowing investor demand are now having an impact on the market. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">"At this stage it is too early to call the magnitude of the impact, however it is likely that the measures (which SQM still regards as moderate) will slow the rate of dwelling price inflation recorded, rather than create a price correction," Mr Christopher said.</span></p>
<p>Listings fell in Melbourne by 10.3% year on year, with the number of properties falling to 37,179.</p>
<p>Sydney house prices went up 1.5% and 0.4% for units over July.</p>
<p>Median<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> Perth house prices fell 4.2% over the year, and units 1.2%1.2% for units. Darwin unit asking prices are down 7.9%</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/08/05/f7c0905b-e758-4790-9539-925ac805d823.png" target="_blank"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><img src="/images/2015/08/05/f7c0905b-e758-4790-9539-925ac805d823.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/08/04/Screen%20Shot%202015-08-04%20at%2010.03.26%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><img src="/images/2015/08/04/Screen%20Shot%202015-08-04%20at%2010.03.26%20AM.png" alt=""></span></p>
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mick.cee-iDmgDDAmu8

July monthly residential listings up nationally: SQM Research

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<p>The majority of potential property investors remain undeterred by APRA's recent changes in investment policy, according to new research by Mortgage Choice. </p>
<p>54% of respondents to Mortgage Choice's 2015 Investor Survey plan to continue with their investment plans regardless of changes to investment lending policies.</p>
<p>Mortgage Choice chief executive office John Flavell said 70% of respondents believed now was still a good time to invest.</p>
<p><span>“While on average 54% of investors said the changes wouldn’t affect their investment plans, the story was a little different for Gen Y buyers,” Mr Flavell said.</span></p>
<p><span>“Baby boomers by comparison, were far less likely to be put off by the changes, with just 30% saying any changes would affect their property investment plans.</span></p>
<p><span>“Our data shows an increasing number of investors are actually Gen Y’s who are purchasing property for the first time. For many younger buyers, purchasing an investment property before an owner occupied property gives them the opportunity to purchase where they can afford while still living where they want."</span></p>
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po-LsXgBTHBmX

Investment changes fail to deter property investors: Mortgage Choice

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<p>AMP Bank has announced it will be temporarily pulling out of all future investment lending in response to APRA crackdown.</p>
<p>“We appreciate the position this puts our customers in and will be working with our distribution network to actively communicate with them,” Michael Lawrence, the managing director, AMP Bank said.</p>
<p>The non-major will ialso ncrease variable rates on all existing investor property loans by 0.47% per annum from 7 September 2015</p>
<p>“Australia’s property market is experiencing high levels of investor property lending growth and we are supportive of the regulator’s intention to slow this growth to appropriate levels,” Lawrence told <a href="https://www.brokernews.com.au/news/breaking-news/nonmajor-bank-pulls-out-of-investment-lending-203294.aspx" target="_blank">Australian Broker Online.</a></p>
<p>AMP Bank is a small lender with 100,000 customers, many of whom are clients of AMP's larger financial planning arm.</p>
<p>According to APRA figures, its housing investor loan book is worth around $2.9 billion.</p>
<p>Latest official figures show AMP's housing investor loan book expanded by more than 13 per cent in the year to May, <span style="font-size: 12.1599998474121px; line-height: 1.3em;">faster than APRA's 10 per cent speed limit.</span></p>
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AMP Bank quits investor lending in unfolding APRA fall-out

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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Modelling by Dixon Advisory has shown that property investors may not be able to have an investment portfolio unless they have funds in reserve for every year of their loans under APRA's tighter lending standards.</span></p>
<p><span>Investors may have to set aside more capital to secure their loans or be priced out of the purchasing market.</span></p>
<p><span>The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority this week instructed the main four banks and Macquarie Group to hold billions of dollars in extra capital to cover mortgage loans, with the change potentially passed onto customers in higher borrowing costs.</span></p>
<p><span>The changes will have significant ramifications for some investors who could be priced out of the market, Dixon Advisory's Nerida Cole told <em>The Australian Financial Review</em>.</span></p>
<p><span>The managing director of Dixon Advisory's financial advice division suggests some investors will need a larger deposit to reduce their loan-to-value ratio or buy cheaper properties.</span></p>
<p><span>"For borrowers who are in a strong financial position, [and have a] particularly strong surplus cash flow and low debt levels, they may be able to acquire the property of their choice," said Nerida Cole.</span></p>
<p><span>Modelling by Dixon Advisory has shown an investor who wants to buy a $1 million property could have to prove they will generate an additional $22,500 in cash a year under new standards, assuming a 20% minimum deposit. </span></p>
<p><span>An investor with a $500,000 property could need up to $12,300 in additional cash a year, in calculations that assume principal and interest repayment at 7%, rental income of 4% (before the bank reduction of 20% is applied) and a marginal tax rate of 49%.</span></p>
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Investors need set aside more capital to secure their loans: Dixon Advisory

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<p><span>Deposits held by the major banks will be safer following APRA's latest move to strengthen capital held against mortgages, but borrowers can expect higher rates for their home loans.</span></p>
<p><span>The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) today announced an increase in the amount of capital required for Australian residential mortgage exposures by authorised deposit-taking institutions (ADIs) accredited to use the internal ratings-based (IRB) approach to credit risk.</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> <span>The change applies only to the four major banks - ANZ, CBA, NAB and Westpac - and Macquarie Bank, which are the five institutions currently allowed to set their own mortgage risk weights.</span></span></p>
<p><span>The much anticipated 2016 implementation will mean that, for ADIs accredited to use the IRB approach, the average risk weight on Australian residential mortgage exposures will increase from approximately 16% to at least 25%. </span></p>
<p><span>The increase in IRB mortgage risk weights addresses a recommendation of the Financial System Inquiry (FSI) that APRA ‘raise the average IRB mortgage risk weight to narrow the difference between average mortgage risk weights for ADIs using IRB risk weight models and those using standardised risk weights’.</span></p>
<p><span>The increase is also consistent with the direction of work being undertaken by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (Basel Committee) on changes to the global capital adequacy framework for banks. </span></p>
<p><span>The increased IRB risk weights will apply to all Australian residential mortgages, other than lending to small businesses secured by residential mortgage.</span></p>
<p><span>In order to provide these five ADIs sufficient time to prepare for the change, the higher risk weights will come into effect from 1 July 2016. <span>All other lenders regulated by APRA currently use a standard 35 per cent risk weight on residential mortgages, meaning that even after mid-2016 these major banks will retain a cost advantage.</span></span></p>
<p><span>APRA noted the residential mortgage portfolio is the largest credit portfolio for ADIs and, in aggregate, IRB accredited ADIs hold the material share of these exposures.</span></p>
<p><span>"Therefore, strengthening the capital adequacy requirement for residential mortgage exposures under the IRB approach will enhance the resilience of IRB-accredited ADIs and the broader financial system," it said.</span></p>
<p><span><span>It is expected that the major banks will be quite differently affected by APRA's policy announcement.</span></span></p>
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Home loan borrowing rates set to rise in 2016 after APRA's latest decision  

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<div>Total ABS Housing Finance for the month of May 2015 came it at a seasonally adjusted print of above $31 billion for the third time on record, with all three of the strongest months taking place consecutively over the three months to May.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>On a trend basis, therefore, monthly total housing finance surged to its highest ever level at $31.9 billion.<br><br>This was in spite a seasonally adjusted dip in the month of May after lending in April had threatened to explode off the top of the chart.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/07/13/HF1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/07/13/HF1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>On a rolling annual basis total owner-occupier lending has blazed upwards by 9 per cent over the past year to a record $212 billion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Meanwhile investor lending has screamed 22 per cent to $148 billion, obliterating all previous records by an enormous margin.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/07/13/HF3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/07/13/HF3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>That said, total housing finance on a seasonally adjusted basis had been higher in April at a downwardly revised $32.5 billion, and therefore the less exuberant May result of $31.1 billion represented a decline of 5.3 per cent for owner-occupier lending and 3.2 per cent for investment loans.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This suggests that initial action taken to tighten lending standards may have been taking some effect by the end of May.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall this should be healthy news for the housing market over the medium term - rampant lending growth had been becoming far too skewed towards investors, and therefore it is doubly important for Australia that robust lending standards are maintained.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The May figures showed investor lending as being "only" 19 per cent higher than in the prior year corresponding period following a blistering 23 per cent year-on-year increase in April - which suggests that APRA will have more work to do over the near term.<br><br>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Premature extrapolation?</span></strong><br><br>This will doubtless result in the regulation "housing gloom" headlines, with commentators choosing to highlight the lower seasonally adjusted monthly figure rather than the trend hitting the highest level in history (the opposite of what they recommend we do when observing surprisingly strong <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/07/economy-adds-225000-jobs-in-year" target="_blank">Labour Force </a>data). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>You can make your own "captain's call" on this.<br><br>Below is the raw "Original" data - not seasonally adjusted - which shows May 2015 to be the third highest result on record for Housing Finance at $32.6 billion, with total lending actually well up on April, but a little below the $33.1 billion level seen back in March.<br><br>Westpac has already noted that the seasonal adjustment may be suffering from a technical glitch this month.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/07/13/hf4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/07/13/hf4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Note that the May figures naturally would not have been affected by the latest interest rate cut, with market activity through June and July having suggested something of a lift.<br><br>Whether or not mortgage approvals and in turn property markets begin to tee off again around October/November time remains to be seen.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">4 observations</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>A few points to make here. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Firstly, commentators have been calling a housing market slowdown for years now, yet over the three years from May 2012 the "Original" data shows owner-occupier lending has steadily increased to be 24 per cent higher, while investor lending has roared upwards by a whopping 73 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Given the above it would be prudent to digest more than one month of near-record high figures before coming to too many hard conclusions.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Secondly, a number of media observers seem to be labouring under the misapprehension that regulators would like to see dwelling prices declining, which is patently not the case.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>APRA sees its role at the present time as weeding out riskier lending and slowing the rate of investor credit growth down to a more sustainable pace.<br><br>One suspects that even at the first inkling of significantly falling prices the regulator will once again take a back seat.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Thirdly, the cost of mortgage debt remains almost absurdly cheap - it's possible to obtain mortgage rates with a "3 handle" right now - so if credit is not unduly restricted there is plentiful untapped demand for mortgage credit with a strongly expanding population and around 225,000 new jobs created in the past 12 months.<br><br>The market hasn't run out of willing buyers and nor has underlying demand mysteriously dried up overnight; rather it has been temporarily curbed by regulatory intervention.<br><br>Recall that the latest ABS Finance &amp; Wealth data showed that in aggregate currency and deposits, superannuation balances and housing equity are all at new record highs, with total household wealth surging past a record $8 trillion<a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/06/household-wealth-surges-past-8-trillion" target="_blank">.</a><br><br>
</div>
<div>Fourthly, if anything the softer result for May increases the likelihood of a further interest rate cut by November 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Generalisation trap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>By far the most important point, though, is that there is no "property market" (singular) in Australia, so it would be unwise to generalise too broadly, although due to necessity all of us do so at times.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>We already know that many resources regions are moving the process of experiencing very sharp corrections, particularly in Western Australian and Queensland.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Owner-occupier lending has now been sliding lower in aggregate in Western Australia for 12 months, albeit fairly moderately, implying that some sectors of Perth property markets are set to lose ground.<br><br>Owner-occupier lending has also now been slipping lower in aggregate in the Northern Territory for the past seven months, so the outlook for Darwin looks to be soft too.</div>
<div>
<br>As for the Sydney market commentary - where pundits have been calling the peak every month for at the past two years - well, it's been pretty bad, hasn't it?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There have been i<span>ndicators of the market mania waning for a little while now, yet auction clearance rates are still tracking at <span>~</span>80 </span>per cent or a little above, and the warmer months will be rolling around once again before we know it.<br><br>Meanwhile stock on market in Sydney remains at remarkably low levels.<br><br>Charted below is the rolling annual owner-occupier lending data at the state level.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/07/13/HF2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/07/13/HF2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Lending standards tightened</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>On a seasonally adjusted basis owner-occupier lending declined in all states and territories in May, and fairly sharply in some cases.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The question now is largely one of whether the regulator APRA continues to apply further pressure to outlying lenders, and if so, for how long.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">This is all somewhat reminiscent of what we saw in England back in 2014, when the Mortgage Market Review (MMR) gummed up lending processes for several months, often with seemingly aimless box-ticking exercises and paper shuffling.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">The pen-pushing and the SOX-style administrative obstacles certainly had the desired effect, taking the speculative heat out of the market for a fair period of time.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Yet borrowing rates remain remarkably cheap in Britain and average UK house prices have risen again to new record highs this month while quarterly mortgage approvals are up by 6 per cent according to the latest Bank of England data. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">I expect that any material slowdown in Australian mortgage lending will be temporary and this housing market cycle will have a long way to run yet in Brisbane, Hobart, Canberra, and even Adelaide, despite its desperately weak full time employment trends.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Sydney's property markets are still gravitating higher for now, but must necessarily be closer to the end of their growth phase of the cycle than the beginning.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Greater Melbourne is also still humming along, but is waving through for approval extraordinary volumes of unit and apartments, which should stall rents and growth in that sector in time.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2015/07/13/BA2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2015/07/13/BA2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">
<div class="separator">Rhetoric has long suggested that the Reserve Bank needs lending finance and the housing market to be strong in order to drive consumption, particularly given the parlous state of other sectors of the economy.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Supply of homebuyers</span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>An interesting aspect of this market cycle has been that the number of owner-occupier mortgage commitments has been considerably lower than we have seen in previous cycles.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/07/13/hf6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/07/13/hf6.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>One key driver of this has been the sheer number of first time buyers who are opting to buy an investment property as their first step onto the housing ladder.</span><br><br><span>Surveys indicate that the first time investor figures are very much material, a trend which has long been evident to anyone who works in capital city real estate, especially in Sydney.</span><br><br><div>Given the high transaction costs of buying and selling property - and with young people changing jobs and even careers more frequently than ever before - it makes a great deal of sense for many young buyers to rent where they live and invest elsewhere (provided they do so sensibly and with a long term time horizon).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As for fading demand from homebuyers? Again, it's wrong to generalise too broadly, but here are the rolling annual <strong>numbers</strong> of mortgage commitments written by state.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/07/13/hf5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/07/13/hf5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>I know that in some inner Brisbane suburbs where house prices are now rising resolutely, only today in mid-2015 after years of stagnant prices since 2007/08 are many homeowners able to contemplate selling to downsize or move elsewhere.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Some have been effectively trapped having paid top dollar at a preceding market peak - after stamps and holding costs only now are some vendors able to justify selling in order to move on. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>At the same time there increasingly appears to be a surge of interest from interstate investors, from New South Wales in particular.<br><br>In rolling annual terms the number of owner-occupier commitments has continued to increase in the three most populous states plus the Australian Capital Territory, but on the other hand has been declining moderately in Western Australia, South Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div>
<br>It's worth remembering that most market commentary which looks for trends over the short to medium term is little better than educated guesswork.<br><br>After all, how many commentators were predicting Sydney prices would be up by close to 50 per cent since 2012? Not many!<br><br>The fundamentals haven't changed too much and demand for property remains close to its highest ever level.<br><br>Unemployment has declined steadily from 6.3 per cent to 6 per cent following 225,000 new jobs created over the past 12 months. Population growth has slowed to around 330,000 per annum, with the declines to be felt most keenly in the resources states. Mortgage rates are as cheap as we have ever seen.<br><br>X-factors may include heavy pressure on lenders from APRA, an implosion in China, or a black swan event.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Finally for today, without properly dissecting the allocation of investor credit by state it is impossible to draw too many firm conclusions given that more than 40 per cent of credit is presently being written to investors.</div>
<div>
<br>I'll be back to analyse the Lending Finance figures in more detail - including investor loans by state.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Recall that the April 2015 figures showed Lending Finance leaping to a 7 year high.</div>
</div>
<div><span><em> </em></span></div>
<div>
<span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

APRA taps on the brakes: Pete Wargent

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<p><span>The NAB's head of retail banking Gavin Slater forecasts slower growth in investor lending under the APRA crackdown would not significantly affect the Sydney property boom.</span></p>
<p><span>Gavin Slater was reported by <em>Fairfax Media</em> as saying the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority was not trying to influence price growth by imposing a 10% annual speed limit for investor credit growth.</span><br><br><span>"I don't think where we're heading, around looking to moderate growth to under 10 per cent, at an industry level, will have a significant impact on asset prices themselves, but that's not the intent of the action," Slater said.</span></p>
<p><span><span>The banking regulator's 10% a year cap investor credit growth will have little impact on house prices, which are being driven by strong demand and a lack of supply, says National Australia Bank.</span><br><br><span>Gavin Slater said prices would continue to be supported by strong buying, including from overseas.</span></span></p>
<p><span><span><em>Bloomberg</em> reported Slater saying m</span></span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">arkets such as Sydney were struggling with undersupply amid "significant" foreign demand.</span></p>
<p>"All lenders are responding to the macro-prudential guidelines," Mr Slater said at a business lunch in the city.</p>
<p>"I don't believe it will have an impact on house prices."</p>
<p> </p>
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