The enormity of delivering a true skyscraper in Australia's new development market is often overlooked.

It has taken the best part of a decade since plans for Chevron One were first unveiled, but the 52-storey tower is now complete, with residents collecting their keys and moving into what has become one of the Gold Coast's most recognisable new landmarks.

Rising 127 metres above Chevron Island, Chevron One stands almost twice as high as any other building on the island. Its scale places it alongside the trio of towers at Jewel, arguably the last truly significant addition to the central Gold Coast skyline when they were completed around six years ago.

While there are several developments underway around a similar height to Chevron One, they are more concentrated within clusters of the highest towers in the city. The fact Chevron One sits within a developing precinct, looking back at the other high-rise developments in Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach, makes it a different proposition altogether. It will certainly become a reference point on the Gold Coast skyline.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=68833]

Developer Bensons Property Group is behind the 52-storey tower, which has just shy of 250 apartments, along with an exhaustive list of resident amenity spread across what is the largest development site ever assembled on Chevron Island.

The tower has been the talk of the town for years, says Ray White Projects Gold Coast agent Caitlin Rosenboom, who is selling the remaining apartments.

"People have been watching Chevron One go up for years," Rosenboom says, adding that many prospective buyers have been surprised by the scale of the views once they step inside.

"It's only when they walk through a completed apartment that they truly understand the position of the building," Rosenboom says.

"The views are jaw-dropping. Whether you're looking east over the ocean, across Surfers Paradise, along the river systems or out to the hinterland, every level offers something different but equally impressive."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=360215]

One of Chevron One's defining advantages is its location on the eastern side of Chevron Island on Stanhill Drive, a position which protects the views forever.

"There's only one row of houses between Chevron One and the water, and the height restrictions along the river means views from Chevron One can never be built out,"&nbsp;Rosenboom says.

While new apartment developments continue to emerge across the Gold Coast, Rosenboom says opportunities to secure a completed apartment with this level of outlook are becoming increasingly rare.

"The size of the site is something that would be incredibly difficult to replicate today," she says.

"That's allowed Chevron One to deliver the sort of amenity, open space and resident facilities that very few projects can offer. There are not many completed apartment buildings on the Gold Coast right now that can compete with the combination of scale, quality and amenity."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=68839]

There's around 2,000 sqm of amenity solely for the use of residents of Chevron One. Club One features a uniquely shaped swimming pool that mirrors the footprint of the building itself, set within a extensively landscaped gardens. There's also an indoor pool and spa, a fully equipped gym with a Pilates room, a yoga garden, a bookable private dining area and lounge that can host up to 30 people, and a 24-hour concierge service.

As for the buyers, Rosenboom is fielding enquiry from everywhere: Sydneysiders and Melburnians looking at the new and off-the-plan market following the changes in the Federal Budget, as well as those looking to relocate, through to South East Queenslanders seeking either a permanent home or a weekender bolthole.

"The Gold Coast lifestyle continues to resonate with people relocating from the southern states, and when they see the views and the quality of what's been delivered at Chevron One, it becomes very easy for them to understand the appeal," Rosenboom says.

A diverse mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments remain available, with each offering "something a little different", be it the orientation and views, configuration, or level, to suit a wide variety of buyers.

The remaining apartments are ready to inspect in person, by appointment.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6515]

Joel Robinson

A decade in the making: Residents to move into Chevron One as construction wraps up

A general rule of thumb in new apartment developments is that the penthouses get the rooftop.

It's a formula that's become commonplace across Australia's apartment market. Residents might have access to a pool, gym or barbecue facilities on a dedicated lower level, but the most desirable outdoor spaces are typically reserved for the highest-priced homes at the top of the building.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Property Group</a> has taken the opposite approach.

Rather than dedicating the rooftop to a handful of buyers, the Gold Coast developer has made it the centrepiece of its Flourish collection, creating expansive shared spaces from the best vantage point in the building.

The philosophy has reached its most ambitious expression at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-palm-beach-1150-1160-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> in Palm Beach, where two rooftop precincts connected by a skybridge will deliver one of the most extensive lifestyle offerings seen in a residential apartment project on the Gold Coast.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374053]

"We're seeing a clear move toward developments that offer more than just an apartment," Sherpa Group founder Christie Leet said.

"People want spaces that support how they actually live, whether that's working from home, staying active, or spending time with family and friends.

"That's where amenity becomes critical. It's not just about what's included, but how those spaces are designed to be used every day."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374052]

The breadth of amenity has already attracted buyers across multiple demographics. Younger first home buyers have been drawn to Soleira's one-bedroom apartments, a product rarely delivered in Palm Beach, while families have responded to practical inclusions such as the shallow children's pool adjoining the main lap pool and the extensive communal recreation areas.

Instead of a single rooftop, Soleira delivers two distinct lifestyle zones.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=372547]

The southern rooftop has been dedicated to wellness, featuring a gym, yoga and Pilates studio, work-from-home facilities, a wellness centre, spa, and hot and cold plunge pools.

The northern rooftop focuses on recreation and entertaining, incorporating a heated resort-style pool, private dining rooms, pizza ovens, barbecues, a golf simulator, children's recreation areas, and what is expected to be the Gold Coast's first rooftop basketball court, which will also double as a squash court.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374054]

Beyond the rooftops, Soleira will introduce 1,500 sqm of curated retail beneath the towers, creating one of Palm Beach's first genuinely mixed-use lifestyle precincts where cafés, restaurants and convenience retail become part of residents' everyday lives.

Sherpa has also retained management rights across the development, allowing it to oversee the long-term operation of the building through a 24-hour concierge model. The developer is also exploring additional revenue streams within the precinct aimed at helping offset ongoing body corporate costs for residents.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370962]

While Soleira is the largest project Sherpa has delivered, the rooftop-first philosophy has been evolving for several years.

It began with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Amargo</a>, the first project released under the Flourish brand. Rather than competing at the ultra-luxury end of the market with oversized half-floor and full-floor residences, Sherpa focused on creating lifestyle-driven apartments supported by resort-style shared spaces.

Amargo introduced more than 800 sqm of rooftop amenity, combining wellness facilities, heated pools, entertaining areas, cabanas, pizza ovens and private dining spaces into what was designed as an extension of residents' homes rather than a facility used only occasionally.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146527 project_image_fid=366550]

That approach continued with Flourish Oasis, where the same amenity-led philosophy was refined into a more boutique development. Strong demand from Sherpa's growing VIP database saw much of the project sold before it reached the broader market, reinforcing buyer appetite for apartment communities centred around shared lifestyle experiences.

Flourish Amargo is slated for completion mid-way-through next year, with Oasis to be delivered by late 2027. Flourish Soleira is expected to complete in 2030.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]

Sherpa takes amenity to the sky as Flourish Soleira captures booming Palm Beach demand

As apartment living continues to evolve across Sydney's growth corridors, the quality and distribution of shared spaces is increasingly shaping how residents experience home. Rather than functioning as add-ons, amenities are being embedded into the daily rhythm of a building, supporting everything from quiet retreat to social interaction, often within a single vertical community.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/aeris-melrose-park-nursery-street-melrose-park-nsw-2114">Aeris</a> in Melrose Park, this approach is resolved through a layered amenity offering that unfolds from ground level through to its upper podium. Developed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sekisui-house-australia">Sekisui House Australia</a> in partnership with Hankyu Hanshin Properties, the project introduces 468 apartments across two towers and a mid-rise building, positioned at the highest point of the broader masterplan.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=359199]

The amenity experience begins at street level, where two courtyards sit within a landscaped setting that connects residents to the wider network of parks and green spaces. These green spaces are not isolated pockets but part of a wider pedestrian network that links Aeris to the surrounding <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/melrose-park-nsw-2114">Melrose Park</a> precinct, including Central Park, future schools, and the Town Centre opening in July 2026. The result is a transition that moves from public to private without abrupt boundaries, allowing residents to pass through shaded, tree-lined environments before reaching the building itself.

Moving upward, the focus shifts to the level five podium, where the primary communal facilities are concentrated. This space brings together a 16-metre swimming pool, outdoor seating areas, and a communal BBQ zone arranged to take advantage of elevated outlooks. Seating is positioned beneath pergolas, creating pockets of shade that extend the usability of the space throughout the day. The pool edge aligns with views toward the wider district, reinforcing the sense of elevation that defines the project’s positioning.

In the adjacent building, this is complemented by quieter, more contemplative spaces, including an outdoor cinema set within the same level. Positioned to operate primarily in the evening, it introduces a different tempo to the shared environment, shifting from daytime activity to after-hours use without requiring separate zones.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360299]

The podium also accommodates an intimate private resident gym. Located on the lower levels, it gives residents convenient access to fitness facilities without leaving the building.

Above, the elevated podium sky deck extends the amenity offering, providing additional open-air spaces with elevated outlooks across the surrounding landscape. While more restrained in program, this upper level reinforces the project’s vertical progression, from ground-level greenery to elevated outlook, allowing residents to move between distinct spatial conditions within a single address.

This distribution of amenities reflects a deliberate response to how residents use space across the day. Sekisui House Australia Sales and Marketing Director Peter Kalaf points to the role these shared areas play in shaping buyer demand. Aeris has been conceived as more than a collection of apartments, with the podium pool, gym and outdoor cinema forming part of a broader lifestyle offering that extends the home beyond each individual residence.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360300]

What distinguishes Aeris is not the inclusion of these elements individually, but how they are arranged in relation to one another. Active, social, and passive spaces are layered vertically rather than separated, allowing residents to choose between them without leaving the building or moving far from their apartment. This proximity supports both routine use, such as a morning swim or evening workout, and more occasional gatherings, whether around the BBQ area or within the cinema setting.

The amenity design also sits within a broader framework of connectivity across Melrose Park. The Melrose Park Town Centre, anchored by Coles and Dan Murphys, features a mix of retail, dining, health and lifestyle offerings, bringing everyday convenience closer to residents. By the end of the year, more than five hectares of parks and open space, equivalent to around seven football fields of green space on residents' doorstep, will further enhance the precinct, allowing the internal facilities at Aeris to operate as an extension of the wider neighbourhood rather than a substitute for it.

Construction at Aeris continues to gather momentum, with ground floor slabs expected to be completed in late 2026 before the first sections of the buildings begin to rise above ground.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=426]

Elevated amenity anchors daily life at Aeris, Melrose Park

Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.

Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FH_1EzB-1vs?si=XScVlP1ERsTDJoME" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.

Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.

“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.

He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]

After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.

"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."

Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.

"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]

Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.

"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."

For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tsioMLcnjas?si=zq-ys3JuWpfa5hFv" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.

"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."

As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.

"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.

"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]

Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.

"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."

That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.

"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]

Aimee says one moment stood out.

"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."

The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.

Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]

ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;

The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]

For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.

"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."

For Aimee, the change is measured in time.

“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]

Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.

ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.

Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.

"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.

"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372549]

Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.

"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.

The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=314259]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.

According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.

Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372550]

Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.

The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.

The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.

"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."

The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.

With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4661]

Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

2021 Property Boom

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The property boom is officially everywhere.

Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics found that every capital city record a rise in residential property prices in the December quarter.

The three per cent gains were the biggest recorded since the December quarter 2019.

The pent up demand from Melbourne's prolonged locked down drove the Victorian capital to be the joint best performer over the three months, with prices up 3.4 per cent, the same as Canberra.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=27728]

Hobart followed, with prices up 3.1 per cent, then Sydney, up three per cent.

Perth's 2.9 per cent gains came in slightly below average, as did Brisbane's 2.7 per cent and Adelaide's 2.6 per cent gains. Weighing the average down was Darwin, however the Northern Territory capital still posted gains of 2.2 per cent.

<img alt="" height="868" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/abs_prices.jpg" width="1800">

ABS head of prices statistics Michelle Marquardt said the rise in property prices is consistent with a range of housing market indicators.

"New lending commitments to households, auction clearance rates and days on market all improved during the December quarter."

Annually, residential property prices rose 3.6 per cent, the ABS data found.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7864]

"This is the first time that all capital cities have seen an annual rise since the December quarter 2014," Marquardt said.

Hobart prices jumped 6.4 per cent, followed by a 5.2 per cent gain in Canberra and 4.2 per cent in Perth.

House prices rose 3.9 per cent in Sydney and 3.7 per cent in Melbourne, while attached dwelling prices rose 1.4 per cent in Sydney and 2.5 per cent in Melbourne.
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The three per cent gains were the biggest recorded since the December quarter 2019

Property boom officially everywhere as all state and territory capitals see December quarter growth: ABS

<html><body>The property sector was now emerging from the COVID-19 crisis with cautious optimism, according to the latest annual Avdiev Property Industry Remuneration Report.

"Almost without exception, survey participants reported their businesses are doing moderately to very well," Debra Moloney, principal of remuneration consultants Avdiev Report noted.

“2020 was a terrible year that will be forever etched in our minds as the year of COVID-19. 

"It appears that the worst is behind us. 

"Government stimulus packages, which have helped consumer spending, are also helping buoy the property and construction sectors.”

The Avdiev Property Industry Remuneration Report is a formal, Australia-wide survey of property, investment, construction employers and design and construction related consulting companies. 

It was the report’s 35th edition.
The results show property businesses went to great lengths to keep staff on, and teams leaned on each other for support. 

“Cost management strategies early on in COVID-19 ensured we were able to keep the majority of employees.” 

The survey revealed that working from home is here to stay. 

"Lockdowns, cancelled projects, the lack of face-to-face time, uncertainty, job losses, stress, change, pay freezes - and COVID-19 - were given as the main negatives in a difficult year," she noted.

"Not surprisingly, pay increases were minimal in 2020. 

"Nearly half of businesses (43%) imposed a pay freeze in their latest round of remuneration reviews.

"But businesses were more optimistic looking forward to their next remuneration review, with 71% planning on increasing remuneration during 2021."

Around half of the businesses advised they have taken on new staff in the last six months due to new business, however 21% reported headcount was lower than this time last year.

“The property sector, with its ability to adapt, has proven it is able to withstand even the most challenging conditions. 

"The outlook for remuneration is positive and indicates that the sector‘s recovery is well underway,” commented Debra Moloney.
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The property sector's remuneration is positive and indicates that the sector‘s recovery is well underway.


jchancellor

Property industry remuneration coming out of 2020 pay freeze: Avdiev

<html><body>
Expert Observer

The big dilemma facing many Australians is whether to confront the frenetic markets in many parts of the nation – or wait for things to settle down before seeking to buy.

I can understand people wanting to avoid the circumstances they currently face in so many locations: properties are selling very quickly, sometimes even before being formally marketed, and often for prices well above the asking price or price guide.

If you want to buy safely and sensibly with due diligence, it’s difficult to compete with cash buyers purchasing properties sight-unseen via a phone call. Surely it would be more sensible to wait until the frenzy dies down and conditions become more normal.

Actually, no. I think it’s a mistake to wait.

I don’t think the boom is a short-term fad, as some in media have suggested. This market scenario has been building for the past six months or so, it’s underpinned by multiple strong factors and it will extend throughout 2021 and into next year.

It’s a genuine nationwide real estate boom, the kind that we see only rarely in Australia. The last one was 2001-2002-2003 and before that it was in the late 1980s.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=27728]

These events happen for identifiable reasons and this one has many factors. My list of influences, which I published in this space a month ago, has 16 dot points. It’s not about low interest rates and it won’t be stalled by the end of JobKeeper. The Reserve Bank might change its mind and lift the official interest rate, but the boom will roll on.

So if you wait until it dies down before buying, you may be waiting a long time and you’ll be paying a lot more for your next home or investment property. If you delay until saner times, you could conceivably be paying 20% more. That means a property worth $500,000 now will be priced around $600,000. A $1 million property will cost $1.2 million.

We already have many suburbs and towns across Australia where the median house price is now 15% or 20% higher than it was a year ago.

Sunshine Beach on the Sunshine Coast has risen from $1.23 million to over $2 million in the space of 12 months.

A $600,000 purchase a year ago on the Sunshine Coast is now worth between $700,000 and $750,000, based on the growth in median house prices for locations such as Birtinya, Mt Coolum and Coolum Beach.

An investment of $550,000 to $650,000 12 months ago in the Central Coast market north of Sydney would now be worth $90,000 to $100,000 more, based on the growth in median prices in locations such as Long Jetty, Berkeley Vale and Umina Beach.

But many markets are only just getting started. Rapid price escalation is likely to continue well into next year. The most conservative of the forecasters, the bank economists, are predicting big growth this year and next year.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=24323]

So if you’re ready to get into the market now, don’t wait. You need to find a way to cut through the current frenzy and get the property you want.

If you’re an investor, there are locations in Australia with the credentials for long-term price growth but not yet “bonkers”.

The best way to proceed is to get your finances sorted, engage a reliable buyers’ agent, give them clear parameters and let them go find you a good investment property in a location with long-term growth drivers.

Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au

ryder@hotspotting.com.au

twitter.com/hotspotting
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I don’t think the boom is a short-term fad, as some in media have suggested

terryryder

Buy in a frenetic market, or wait it out? Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT INSIGHT

Among the many explanations put forward for <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/australia-first-home-buyers-priced-out-of-property-market-by-extreme-offers/d7de770f-c492-46fa-a774-bda0ea45718e">soaring home prices</a>, one we hear repeatedly is <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/zoning-rules-cost-home-buyers-a-fortune--and-itll-get-worse-says-rba-20180308-h0x6uh">zoning</a> — the regulations that govern the purposes for which land can be used, including how densely people can be housed in different locations.

The real estate industry says if only we <a href="https://udia.com.au/media-release/housing-affordability-woes-need-solutions/">relaxed the zoning rules</a> and allowed more houses and apartments to be built on each block, housing would be cheaper, maybe A$355,000 per unit cheaper if the <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2020/pdf/rdp2020-04.pdf">Reserve Bank</a> is right.

It’s a story as grounded in simplicity as it is (on the part of developers) in self-interest.

The simple story is that zoning regulations restrict development, restricted development means restricted supply of houses and apartments, and restricted supply means higher prices. Scrap the planning laws, the argument goes, and property developers will shower the market with housing, driving down prices.

So effective is the mantra it has become part of the official story in <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/fixing-our-broken-housing-market">Britain</a> and the <a href="https://bpr.berkeley.edu/2020/04/06/no-more-picket-fences-how-sb50-could-have-solved-the-california-housing-crisis/">United States</a>, and to <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2020/pdf/rdp2020-04.pdf">some extent</a> here.

What’s missing is evidence.

Studies which point the finger at the planning system almost universally fail to quantify the extent of housing permitted by planning regulations and how it has changed over time.

Rarely have changes in zoning been examined

Analysis by Australia’s <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2018/pdf/rdp2018-03.pdf">Reserve Bank</a> for example, treats zoning rules as though they exist in stasis; an ever-present yet spatially-varied regulation measured by whatever price remains once structure and land values are subtracted.

Our <a href="https://osf.io/zkt7v/">new research</a> fills the gap by measuring changes in zoning at the level of individual properties in greater Brisbane.

<figure class="align-right zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/388744/original/file-20210310-20-synd5d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" sizes=" 600px) 600px, 237px" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/388744/original/file-20210310-20-synd5d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/388744/original/file-20210310-20-synd5d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=970&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388744/original/file-20210310-20-synd5d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=970&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388744/original/file-20210310-20-synd5d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=970&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388744/original/file-20210310-20-synd5d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=1219&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388744/original/file-20210310-20-synd5d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=1219&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/388744/original/file-20210310-20-synd5d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=1219&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w"></a>

<figcaption>The 19 Brisbane centres studied.
</figcaption></figure>We examined 20 years of changes to zoning, housing supply and prices across more than 25,000 sites in 19 major centres subject to <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/2399808320951583">repeated</a> zoning changes designed to encourage urban infill.

The centres had within them a wide variety of land use types (detached dwellings, medium-density dwellings, commercial and retail use, etc.) and housing densities. We reviewed and mapped historic and current rules to determine how the zoned capacity changed on each site.

We combined this with data on the changes in land use on each site, changes to the actual supply of dwellings, and property prices.

If the semi-official story was true, we would have expected increases in zoned capacity to lead to falling prices.

Our results show no such thing. Locations with increased zoned capacity for housing saw increased (not reduced) property prices. Across the selected sites, houses increased in value by a factor of three and apartments by 2.3 over the two decades studied, as they did elsewhere in Australia.

Weaker zoning, not weaker prices

During this time, the zoned capacity for housing at these locations doubled. But there was no rush to take up the increase in capacity.

The vast majority of sites (94%) were not developed within five years of the zoning changes.

Even after 20 years, 71% of the extra capacity remained unexploited.

We found evidence for an alternative story: that planning regulations permit development, but it is the market price that determines if and where development occurs.

Higher sales prices make development more feasible.

Under this story, developers select their sites, build, and sell in strong markets and wait or avoid selling when markets are weak.

This partly explains why locations with highest initial property prices were the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/08111146.2020.1792284">most likely</a> to be developed.

Like all good stories, the semi-official one contains an element of truth. If the planning system failed to allow for enough growth, it would almost certainly drive up prices.

Rarely is supply a problem

To avoid this, planning authorities go to <a href="https://planning.dsdmip.qld.gov.au/planning/better-planning/state-planning/regional-plans/seqrp/lsdm">great lengths</a> to ensure there is enough zoned capacity to cater for projected growth.

This is one reason why we <a href="https://osf.io/r925z">don’t have a housing supply problem</a>. Deregulating the planning system won’t change that, but nor will it ease price pressure.

What it will do is reduce the environmental and other benefits zoning provides, while continuing to allow developers to sell properties at times <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1051137720300449">of their choosing</a>.

What is driving up house prices now has little to do with zoning, and it is happening worldwide.

Throughout the globe we have seen increases in easy access to cheap credit and tax regimes that encourage speculative property investment.

Unlike planning regulations, which vary hugely by location, these macroeconomic factors are common. They help explain why the housing affordability crisis transcends national boundaries.

It is the liberalisation of finance and the treatment of housing as an investment product that got us into this mess. Further liberalisation of planning regulations is unlikely to get us out.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" jfhjlrx="" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/154482/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" width="1" yyupy4q2g="" z="">

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/mark-limb-1185405">Mark Limb</a>, Lecturer in Urban and Regional Planning, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/queensland-university-of-technology-847">Queensland University of Technology</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/cameron-murray-172480">Cameron Murray</a>, Research Fellow - Henry Halloran Trust, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841">University of Sydney</a>

This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/zoning-isnt-to-blame-for-australias-soaring-house-prices-154482">original article</a>.
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Studies which point the finger at the planning system almost universally fail to quantify the extent of housing permitted by planning regulations and how it has changed over time

jordan_55689

Zoning isn’t to blame for Australia’s soaring house prices

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Following a minor dip due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Sydney property values have now recovered to surpass their 2017 peak, according to property date firm CoreLogic. 
Tim Lawless, CoreLogic’s executive research director, says he’s not surprised that the recent strong capital gains in housing values have led another capital city to move to new record highs.  
“The recovery trend in Sydney following the -15.3% decline from July 2017 to May 2019 was interrupted by COVID-19, with housing values falling by -3.0% through the worst of the pandemic.

<img alt="" height="895" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/corelogic_sydney.jpg" width="1200"> 
“Since housing values found a floor in October last year, Sydney home values have risen 5.7% to reach a new record high today.

"The fresh record high is great news for Sydney home owners, but highlights the challenges for non-home owners looking to participate in the housing market as values rise faster than incomes,” Lawless says. 
According to CoreLogic’s daily hedonic home value index, Melbourne dwelling values remain -1.3% below their pre-COVID high and Perth values are still -16.9% lower relative to their 2014 peak.

<h2>Projects in Sydney</h2>

Auburn Square, Auburn 
Address: 26-36 Northumberland Road, Auburn NSW 2144 
Two-bedroom apartments from $600,000

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7317]

Developed by Tian An LFD, Auburn Square boasts the ultimate liveability in the heart of western Sydney.

Designed by Rothelowman, the development’s design provides perfectly considered spaces to deliver a sense of community, with facilities including an expansive rooftop, communal dining areas, outdoor fitness equipment, and impressive cityscape views.

Auburn Square is one of the few Sydney developments eligible for the HomeBuilder Grant extension, potentially saving $15,000 for first home buyers.

Castle Residences, Sydney 
Address: 203 Castlereagh Street, Sydney NSW 2000 
One-bedroom apartments from $1.23 million

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7758]

Castle Residences is one of Sydney's most anticipated projects to be completed in 2021.

The luxury $380 million is being developed by United Development Sydney, which operates under the umbrella of Shanghai Lian Yao Investment Co, a $19 billion company established as a joint venture by 10 Chinese real estate groups.

The project, currently under construction by Hutchinson Builders and nearing its topping out stage, will have 131 apartments, a mix of studio, one, two and three bedroom units across 36 levels.

 

 
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Since housing values found a floor in October last year, Sydney home values have risen 5.7% to reach a new record high



Sydney property values reach record high

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Having previously forecasted four per cent gains in 2021 in September, Westpac economists have lifted their forecast for dwelling prices and are now expecting 10 per cent gains in both 2021 and 2022.

Westpac chief economist Bill Evans and senior economist Matthew Hassan's expectation is the market will flatten in 2023 as rising fixed-term interest rates combine with prudential measures aimed at reining in the associated lift in leverage.

"These headwinds are not expected to emerge until 2022 with prudential measures likely to be timed for the second half of 2022," Evans and Hassan suggest.

The forecast has Perth leading the way in 2021 with 12 per cent gains, followed by Sydney, Brisbane and Adelaide at 10 per cent. Hobart and Melbourne are predicted to see eight per cent gains, with the latter jumping to 10 per cent over 2022.  

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7864]

They say the September forecast of four per cent gains in 2021 was "considered bold", given Victoria was still in lock down.

<img alt="" height="824" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/dwelling_forecast_westpac_2021.jpg" width="1200">

"The forecast for 2021 incorporated ongoing COVID-related headwinds – particularly around the end of temporary loan repayment deferrals and the impact of closed international borders on migrant inflows," Evans and Hassan continued.

"These headwinds and uncertainties around the pace of reopening and risks of further virus outbreaks were expected to restrain price gains through the first half of 2021.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5559]

"However, the last four months have seen a faster and stronger than expected turnaround, particularly in markets that will see little or no effects from these headwinds. Even in those that are more exposed, demand is looking materially stronger than expected back in September, suggesting momentum will be better sustained.

Evans and Hassan says the upturn is being supported by record low interest rates; the confident expectation amongst borrowers that these rates will remain low for years to come; ample credit supply; and an improving economic backdrop, as the roll-out of vaccines promises to bring the pandemic to an end and drives a sustained lift in confidence.
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Westpac chief economist Bill Evans and economist Matthew Hassan's expectation is the market will flatten in 2023



Westpac now forecast 20 per cent dwelling price gains over next two years

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Expert Observer

As we previously projected, the housing market has shifted from a buyer’s market to a seller’s one, where fear of missing out (FOMO) has become a major factor. In addition, it is highly likely that the ultra-low interest rate environment will remain in place for at least for the next 24 months, and possibly longer. 

This, combined with only a low availability of stock of quality assets in popular areas, has been reflected in almost unprecedented auction clearance rates.  

Buyer’s agents have been reporting tight stock levels all over the country. 

It’s not uncommon to see lower stock levels over the summer break, but this year has been something else. Even as new listings have begun to pick up supply is being comfortably outstripped by demand and the market overall is very tight.

Melbourne presents a slightly different dynamic, with various disruptions making the market more disjointed, but in most parts of the country open homes are busy as confidence returns, and strong sales results are being reported in short order.

Market dynamics confirmed earlier forecasts of strong price growth in 2021, with some markets likely to even better than previously forecast. 

It is projected that both Sydney and Melbourne will deliver capital growth in the range of 8-12 per cent in 2021. Many areas are also likely to deliver double digit growth over the calendar year. In particular, houses with a high land value component and scarcity value are likely to enjoy very strong demand and capital growth, both in the short and long term. 

Other markets, particularly south-east Queensland and popular regional areas that offer particularly good lifestyle choices, also enjoy strong demand, and this is likely to result in strong price growth both in the short- and long-term, as the trend of increased popularity of such areas is sustained. 

The medium- and long-term projections for South Australia, Western Australia, and the Northern Territory, are different than those that are projected to the eastern states. While many other areas that experience lower population growth and softer job market (in comparison to Sydney and Melbourne), such as Perth, are also experiencing strong capital growth for houses, this is less sustainable over the long term, due to lower external migration and a relatively smaller number of high paying jobs in the ‘knowledge industry’ (e.g., financial services, IT, etc).  

Obviously, these are under our key underlying assumption is that the COVID-19 vaccinations that have been rolled out will provide a sustainable solution to the virus over time. 

Rental apartments, however, continue to represent a higher risk at the present time, in particular inner-city apartment markets such as Inner-Melbourne.  

Consumer sentiment is very high, as expected. According to Westpac-Melbourne Institute, in February, Westpac’s key measure of house price expectations has risen strongly to 154.7 from 117.3 in October. All states have registered impressive recoveries. 

House price expectations are already being reflected in auction clearance rates figures, especially in Melbourne. Preliminary auction clearance rates in the last week of January showed results of 83 per cent in Melbourne and 83 per cent in Sydney, with noticeably higher auction clearance rates for houses than units. Clearance rates across the country are likely to remain high and similar to pre-pandemic Levels and well above the 70 per cent mark. 

A sustained period of ultra-low interest rates seems almost certain in the foreseeable future. This has led some lenders to offer introductory home loan variable rates of 1.79 per cent, a move which follows the launch of the first fixed rates of 1.75 per cent. Consequently, this has led to an increase in housing finance.  

The latest ABS data on new housing lending showed a record 31.2 per cent year-on-year rise, driven by a surge in owner-occupier lending (which includes a large increase in construction loans) as well as a smaller rise in investment lending. The value of new owner occupier home loan commitments increased by 8.7 per cent to $19.9 billion in December 2020 and the value of investor loan commitments was also up 10.9 per cent to $6.07 billion. 

First home buyer activity is also well above the benchmark, up 56.6 per cent year-on-year. However, the share of owner-occupier activity is likely to reduce with an expected increase in investor activity. 

A further increase in housing finance is highly likely during the first quarter of 2021 with many lenders already experiencing backlogs to address loan pre-approval applications. Ultra-low interest rates are also likely to have a positive impact on the market during 2021 and 2022. 

Lifestyle areas enjoyed strong demand before COVID-19 hit, and the demand trend of sea- and treechange homebuyers is now, with flexible working arrangements, even stronger. Those who work in a stable corporate environment, but do so remotely, are taking advantage of great buying opportunities in NSW, Victoria, and south-east Queensland. 

These include areas of south-east Queensland such as the Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast, just over the NSW border in Byron Bay, and further south on the Central Coast, in areas such as North Avoca, Terrigal, and Wamberal. Then, there are also sought-after locations such as the Hunter Valley, Wollongong, and the NSW South Coast, and in Victoria, the Mornington Peninsula, Geelong, and Ballarat. Beachside suburbs especially are outperforming the wider market as they offer fantastic lifestyle opportunities. The ability to work remotely and to move to regional areas also has been a contributing factor in supporting housing affordability, as the pressure in capital cities will be somewhat mitigated. 

Due to ultra-low interest rates, the housing market is reaching new highs with further price increases projected. Consequently, this will make dwellings less affordable when including the required deposit and closing costs. While internal migration to regional areas somewhat mitigates the problem, there is still a major undersupply of family suitable properties in popular areas with proximity to the major employment hubs. 

High-rise apartments are not considered to be a fully substitutable product to houses and townhouses, and therefore will not materially impact the demand for houses. Housing affordability is likely to remain a chronic issue particularly in Greater Sydney, Greater Melbourne as well as popular areas in south-east Queensland. 

However, it is likely that strong price increases will encourage APRA to watch the housing market closely, particularly given record low interest rates, high household debt, and signs of some revival in borrowing for speculative purposes. It should be noted that strong investor activity is perceived by the RBA as ‘speculation’ that increases the risks to financial stability. Consequently, any major increase in investor activity is likely to trigger the reintroduction of macroprudential measures by APRA, at a certain point in time. 

Population growth, as projected, has been reduced substantially and there will be significant reduction in total population growth due to low external migration, with Net Overseas Migration (NOM) in FY21 is expected to drop to -71,600 people, for Australia's first experience of negative NOM since 1946. This negative trend is forecast to continue in FY22 and only gradually return to pre-COVID levels from FY23 onwards. The reduction in overseas migration has and will continue to have a major impact on rental apartments that have already experienced increased vacancy rates and lower demand from investors. 

In the immediate term, there are higher risks in the rental apartment segment, that are likely to result in price reductions across the country, particularly in heavily supplied areas in Melbourne, and to a lesser extent in Sydney. These markets may be more volatile due to the high proportion of property investors and high levels of external migration. There is a renewed interest in the high risk off-the-plan units, due to generous government concessions and the perceived opportunity to buy at, allegedly, low prices. 

However, off-the-plan units carry a high level of risk mainly as buyers, including property investors, shift demand towards detached houses. Uncertainty in relation to external migration further increases the risk. 

The unit rental market overall remains relatively weak. The decline in unit rents was largely concentrated around the inner-city markets of Melbourne and Sydney, contributing to a city-wide drop of 7.6 per cent and 5.7 per cent respectively over the year. Unit rents also fell 4.6 per cent across the combined capital city unit market. 

This increases serviceability risk (particularly in the short term) due to the combination of continued high supply of units, preference for houses in capital cities and regional areas, and uncertainty related to the rental demand largely driven by young renters and migrants.  

Serviceability risk already has and will continue to have a significant impact on investor demand for high-rise units, as investors are very responsive to out-of-pocket expenses. 

Therefore, both equity risk and cash flow risk for rental apartments, remain relatively high.

Pete Wargent 
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The housing market has shifted from a buyer’s market to a seller’s one, where fear of missing out (FOMO) has become a major factor

pwargent

Ultra-low interest rates and 'FOMO' drive dwelling values to new highs with double-digit growth on the horizon: Pete Wargent

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The prime residential forecasts for the 30 cities in Savills World Cities Prime Residential Index highlight the strength of prime residential property.

Average growth for the cities in the index is forecast at 1.6% for 2021. Sentiment is improving as the rollout of the Covid-19 vaccine begins in many countries and, despite the uncertainties which still linger, prime residential property is expected to remain an active market.

The resilience of prime residential markets was highlighted during the second half of 2020. Savills World Cities Prime Residential Index recorded an average increase of 0.8% for the cities in the index at a time when global GDP is recovering from the impact of Covid-19 and subsequent lockdowns.

Many of the factors which helped drive the prime residential market in the second half of 2020 are expected to continue into 2021, including low stock levels in some locations and the desire for more space.

Historically low interest rates, which are expected to remain low for some time, also make the sector attractive for wealth preservation. These factors, and the sector’s strong fundamentals, mean positive price growth is expected in 19 cities, compared with nine that are expected to see small price falls.

<img alt="" height="636" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/savills_world_performance_2021.jpg" width="1200">

Source: Savills Research

<h2>The high fliers: +6%</h2>

Of the cities in the Savills World Cities Prime Residential Index, Seoul saw the strongest growth during 2020 with prices increasing 8.6%. This strong performance is expected to continue over the coming year. The market remains on an upward trend, driven by high demand from historically low interest rates, strong economic performance and short supply.

Berlin and Sydney are the next strongest performers. The German capital has been on an upward trend with high levels of demand that exceed supply. Sydney has seen comparatively weaker performance in recent years but is expected to improve in 2021 as economic activity picks up.

<h2>The strong contenders: +4-6%</h2>

Guangzhou is expected to see the highest growth out of the Chinese cities in the index over the coming year. The city is benefitting from urban regeneration projects as well as its proximity to comparatively higher-valued Shenzhen.

In the USA, as with many Western markets, the search for more space was a pandemic-driven trend during 2020. This is expected to continue over the coming year, benefiting cities that offer space, such as Miami.

Miami also has particularly attractive tax advantages. Should the rise in remote working continue, those who no longer need to stay in one location for work may find Miami appealing.

Mumbai has seen stamp duty changes over the past year. The forecast growth in Mumbai, driven by the stamp duty reduction and low mortgage rates, follows price falls due to an oversupply.

<h2>The steady cities: &gt;0-4%</h2>

Despite the headwinds of 2020, supply remains a significant influencer of price movements. Many cities that expected to see positive growth of up to 4% in 2021 are markets characterised by low supply levels, e.g. San Francisco, Amsterdam and Tokyo.

London’s prime market is expected to see a turnaround, with forecast growth underpinned by the value on offer compared with its peak in 2014.

The Chinese cities of Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou and Beijing are expected to see growth of between 0% and 4%. These markets have performed well in 2020 as economic activity returned. Residential is seen as a safe investment, which is expected to continue in 2021. Beijing has a slightly weaker forecast than the other cities in China due to heavy local regulation.

<h2>A softening of prices: -2-0%</h2>

Some prime residential markets are more reliant on international demand than others. For these markets, travel restrictions have hindered performance during the past year. While vaccine news does bolster optimism for the return of travel, a number of markets that are driven by international demand, including Dubai, Kuala Lumpur and Lisbon, are expected to see a slight softening of prices over the coming year. Lower international demand is also expected to impact the prime market in Paris.

A weaker economic environment is expected to impede growth in a number of cities in Southern Europe, including Milan, Rome, Barcelona and Madrid, while oversupply also continues to play a role for a few cities in this price growth tier, namely Bangkok and Dubai.

<h2>Down, but not out: &lt;-2%</h2>

In Hong Kong, the highest valued city in our index, prices have been impacted by political uncertainty. Prime values are expected to continue their downward trend over the coming year.

New York’s prime market has been on a downward trend in recent years due to oversupply. The pandemic has also caused a temporary move away from densely populated urban living – whether this becomes a long-term trend, however, still remains to be seen.

Sean Hyett is an analyst for Savills World Research
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Sydney forecast to sit among the 2021 residential high fliers: Savills

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EXPERT INSIGHT

This year will deliver a nationwide property boom. I have few doubts about that and my confidence is strengthened by the number of commentators who are now forecasting a year of strong growth. It’s not often we see all kinds of analysts agreeing about what will happen with property prices.

It’s even rarer for economists to publish optimistic predictions. Even the major bank economists are bullish about real estate this year. Pretty much everyone with a public view about the direction of real estate markets – economists, media columnists, various attention-seekers and genuine real estate analysts – have been unanimous in tipping substantial price growth in 2021.

Perhaps the only point of difference among the pundits is how much. But many of them are expecting double-digit increases in median prices. It’s not so long ago that major media, fueled by pessimistic economists, was strident in declaring an impending collapse in property values. The housing market proved the naysayers wrong: 2020 was the best possible advertisement for residential property as an asset class, as most markets delivered growth in defiance of the pandemic.

The latest figures from CoreLogic suggest that all capital cities except Melbourne had price growth in 2020, with Canberra, Adelaide, Darwin and Hobart all rising between 6% and 9%. Sydney (up 4%), Brisbane (4.6%) and Perth (2%) all recorded moderate growth in their house prices, in a year when most of the nation’s cities defied the pandemic and its negative economic impacts. That’s a commendable performance but the capital cities were out-done by many of the regional markets.

House prices rose 12% in Regional Tasmania (compared to 7.7% in Hobart), 8.8% in Regional NSW (compared to 4% in Sydney), 7.8% in Regional South Australia (compared to 6% in Adelaide), 7.3% in Regional Queensland (compared to 4.6% in Brisbane) and 5.5% in Regional Victoria (compared to a 2% decline in Melbourne). Unit markets also did well in the regions, with price increases headed by South Australia (up 11.7%) and Tasmania (up 10.5%). NSW, Victoria and Queensland all recorded unit price rises between 5.5% and 6.5% in the regional areas.

The only regional market to record price decline was Western Australia, which dropped both for houses and for units. These figures show that the momentum for a national property boom is already building and indeed that some markets are already surging strongly. The infrastructure-led economic recovery planned by federal and state government will add to that impetus. Few things generate momentum in residential property markets like big spending on new infrastructure and politicians have shown they are willing to put their budgets into debt to fast-track projects that are shovel-ready or close to it. Another big factor likely to put upward pressure on prices is the level of vacancy rates around Australia.

Outside of the inner-city areas, vacancies are very low in most locations and in some they are so low it represents a rental market crisis. The upward pressure on rentals is considerable, particularly when prospective tenants are offering more than the asking price to secure properties ahead of the competition.

A further factor to consider is that the growth achieved in 2020 occurred without much involvement from investors. First-home buyers and other owner-occupiers have dominated – but there are signs this is changing. I expect investors – who, as a cohort, tend to react to market trends rather than lead them – to be a lot more prominent this year and that will further turbocharge property prices. Outside of those inner-city areas, it’s a great time to be a landlord.

Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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A factor to consider is that the growth achieved in 2020 occurred without much involvement from investors, first-home buyers and other owner-occupiers have dominated 

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