Lewis Land's latest apartment release within its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/harbour-shores-biggera-waters-564-oxley-drive-biggera-waters-qld-4216">Harbour Shores</a> masterplan is targeting one of the Gold Coast's fastest-growing buyer groups, with almost a third of apartments at Solis priced below $1 million.

The seven-storey building at Biggera Waters will comprise 91 apartments, including 24 one-bedroom residences starting from $778,000, a price point Lewis Land says is aimed squarely at first home buyers struggling to enter the Gold Coast market.

<img alt="Harbour Shires" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e7486e37-22f6-4c92-b212-9b0622070b8f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-08%20at%209.09.34%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=W8MJwJUCf6HkIyl_EVSksnd.QI6MZryY" />

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/lewis-land-group">Lewis Land</a> Head of Development Michael Long said the developer deliberately allocated a significant proportion of the project to more affordable apartment types.

"First home buyers have been priced out of many parts of the Gold Coast, and we saw a clear opportunity to address this and play our part in a longer-term housing solution," Long said.

"That's why 24 of the 91 apartments being delivered at Solis have been designed and priced for the city's next generation of homeowners, quality one-bedroom apartments, half of which include an additional multipurpose room to maximise space and flexibility.

"This approach places 30 per cent of apartments in Solis under $1 million, and with close proximity to Harbour Town's future light rail extension connecting residents to the city's major employment and knowledge hubs, it's a win for buyers looking to secure their first property."

<img alt="Sores" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="550526d3-73ba-4710-9739-c5f4294a30ef" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-08%20at%209.09.29%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=cQQdXHt9wS0UXwZEm5Py5bH_3kAmzyhu" />

Designed by BDA Architecture, Solis will deliver a mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments, with residences ranging up to 232 sqm. Apartments feature generous balconies and contemporary finishes, while residents will have access to Harbour Shores' lagoon pool, clubhouse, tennis court, gym, yoga studio and sauna.

The focus on first home buyers resonated with purchaser Holly Humphreys, who said she and her boyfriend spent more than a year searching for their first property before shifting their attention from houses to apartments.

"We fell in love with the first house we bid on and got our hopes up, but after repeated knockbacks we learned not to get too attached," Humphreys said.

"We offered at the high end of price guides, but sales kept going even higher. That's where we really struggled and we needed to re-evaluate our budget and our expectations. Standalone houses were off the table, and we pivoted to apartments and townhouses."

Humphreys said it was encouraging to see developers recognising the growing demand from first home buyers.

"There's a growing number of young buyers looking to enter the market earlier because they understand that getting in now can make a real difference as prices continue to rise," she said.

"It's fantastic to see a developer recognise this and then actively take measures to deliver an apartment with us in mind."

Solis is the first development planned within the second stage of the Harbour Shores masterplan, with early works expected to commence in September 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=113271]

Joel Robinson

Lewis Land targets first home buyers at latest Harbour Shores release, Solis

Luxury apartment developer Abadeen has recorded $19.25 million in apartment sales across two of its Lower North Shore developments in the lead-up to the end of the financial year, headlined by the sale of a $6.75 million penthouse at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/koyo-crows-nest-5-rodborough-avenue-crows-nest-nsw-2065">KOYO in Crows Nest.</a>

The transactions also included the sale of a newly completed three-bedroom apartment at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/park-residences-cremorne-2-sutherland-street-cremorne-nsw-2090">Park Residences in Cremorne</a> for $6.35 million, with the residence selling shortly after the project's first public inspections following completion.

The sales come as completed, owner-occupier-focused apartments continue to attract strong demand across Sydney's Lower North Shore, particularly from buyers looking for certainty and immediate occupancy.

The penthouse at KOYO spans 491 sqm across a single level and was designed by architect Koichi Takada. The development is one of Abadeen's flagship boutique projects in Crows Nest.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108800 project_image_fid=370093]

Abadeen Executive Chairman and Founder Justin Brown said buyer activity lifted noticeably in the lead-up to the end of the financial year.

"We saw a clear increase in enquiry levels, inspection numbers and buyer engagement across our completed projects leading into the end of the financial year," Brown said.

"Buyers have become far more decisive over the past six months. The combination of improving confidence, limited supply and the ability to physically inspect completed residences is creating strong competition for premium apartments in the best locations."

Brown says the&nbsp;response to Park Residences following completion has been particularly strong.

"Buyers want certainty and are responding positively to the opportunity to walk through a finished product, inspect the quality firsthand and move in immediately," Brown suggested.

"Projects such as Park Residences and KOYO demonstrate that when the product is exceptional and the location is irreplaceable, buyers are prepared to act quickly."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=114246 project_image_fid=370116]

Abadeen CEO Joe Tack said quality continued to differentiate projects in the current market.

"Today's buyers are incredibly discerning," Tack said.

"They are seeking larger floorplans, premium finishes, walkability, lifestyle amenity and confidence in the developer delivering the project. Well-designed boutique developments continue to outperform because they offer something genuinely difficult to replace.

"The enquiry we are seeing across our completed and recently completed Lower North Shore portfolio is very encouraging, and we expect this momentum to continue into spring."

The sales follow increased enquiry across Abadeen's Lower North Shore portfolio which also includes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/northcote-collective-naremburn-2-northcote-street-naremburn-nsw-2065">Northcote Collective in Naremburn</a> which also completed recently.

KOYO penthouse headlines Abadeen's $19.25 million EOFY sales flurry

The City of Sydney has approved plans for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/billbergia">Billbergia Group</a> and Metrics Credit Partners’ $3.5 billion Castlereagh Place project in the heart of the Sydney CBD

The towers will be among the tallest in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/sydney-nsw-2000">Sydney</a>'s CBD, with more floors than any other residential tower in the city.&nbsp;

The 6,000 sqm site was acquired by the joint venture partners in 2024. It is the largest amalgamated land parcel in the Sydney CBD and comprises eight individual sites fronting Castlereagh, Pitt and Liverpool Streets.&nbsp;

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/castlereagh-place-sydney-324-348-pitt-street-sydney-nsw-2000">Castlereagh Place</a> will transform an underutilised city block into a landmark mixed-use destination, anchored by two 82-storey towers comprising 607 luxury residences above an 8-level podium housing a 209-room luxury hotel. A 1,000 square metre civic park on ground level features a curated mix of food, beverage and retail.

The plans have been refined over the past year to rebalance the residential and hotel offering, and reconfigure the retail footprint to create a stronger, more dynamic dining experience.

A three-level flagship building on the prominent corner of Pitt and Liverpool Streets will be the gateway to the Castlereagh Place lifestyle precinct. Set to become a Sydney icon, the building is capable of housing multiple hospitality venues.

“Castlereagh Place is designed to be the City's next great urban oasis - an energetic mixed-use precinct that pulses with life, day and night,"&nbsp;said Joseph Kinsella, Group Director of Billbergia.

"It will bring the vibrancy of places like Barangaroo and Darling Quarter into a more accessible, central destination at the very heart of Sydney."

Kinsella said the project will build on&nbsp;Sydney’s growing laneway culture with the City’s largest network of new activated lanes - an expanded, next-generation take on precincts like Angel Place, Palings Lane and Ash Street in Wynyard.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134477 project_image_fid=374401]

Castlereagh Place has been designed by architects <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fjc-studio">fjcstudio</a> in collaboration with Trias Studio, Aileen Sage and Polly Harbison Design, joint winners of an international design competition in 2018.&nbsp;

Signature design elements from the original scheme remain unchanged, while the public domain has been significantly enhanced, delivering 60 per cent more open-to-sky space.

Pedestrian access will also be enhanced through new laneways linking Pitt, Liverpool and Castlereagh Streets, drawing people into a new civic park with outdoor seating, landscaping and integrated public art.

With activated laneways supported by strong hospitality offerings, Castlereagh Place is tipped to become a vibrant new dining destination in the heart of Sydney’s CBD.

It marks the largest undertaking to date for the Billbergia and Metrics Credit Partners partnership. Together they are developing other underutilised Sydney sites into mixed-use precincts, including the $2.2 billion Concord Central and the $1.3 billion Chatswood Grand Residences.

Metrics Managing Partner and Group CEO Andrew Lockhart said Castlereagh Place is a landmark project that will redefine Sydney’s skyline.

"As the tallest residential high-rise development, the revitalised site will offer panoramic views across the CBD and surrounds. We are excited to partner with Billbergia to reinvigorate an underutilised site and create a sophisticated and contemporary mixed-use offering situated in the heart of Sydney.”

Total apartments within the towers have increased to 607 dwellings, with a focus on larger floorplans. Aligned to growing market demand, Castlereagh Place now comprises 299 three-plus-bedroom apartments, 198 two-bedroom units and 110 one-bedroom configurations.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134477 project_image_fid=374402]

Resident amenities will include an exclusive residents club containing a gym, rooftop pool, dining rooms, co-working spaces, library, golf simulator, games room, cinema room, and access to an exclusive concierge service. There will be around 500 basement car spaces below the towers.

The development will also include a state-of-the-art wellness centre, set to feature a bathhouse with magnesium pools, hot/cold plunge pools and premium amenities.

&nbsp;

According to fjcstudio, the towers will feature distinctive yet elegant architectural design reflecting Sydney’s geometry and urban character, with a network of through-site links and intimate public spaces activating the streetscape.

"Castlereagh Place is a city-making project of significant scale and ambition," said Richard Francis-Jones, Design Director at fjcstudio.

"It will create a rich urban complex of public open spaces, landscaped gardens, and vibrant laneways. Defining these new public spaces and the important streetscape of Castlereagh Street is a sequence of fine-grained, diverse retail and hotel architecture designed in collaboration with Aileen Sage, Polly Harbison Design and Trias.

“Rising above the tree-lined, human-scale streetscape are two slender residential towers that will transform the city skyline and look towards the Harbour, Hyde Park, and the Royal Botanic Garden.”

Demolition and early construction works have commenced onsite at Castlereagh Place.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134477]

Billbergia, Metrics, approved for $3.5 billion Sydney skyscrapers

International developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/spg-land">SPG Land</a> is preparing to re-launch its long-awaited $1.5 billion <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/paradiso-place-surfers-paradise-103-ferny-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Paradiso Place</a> development at Budds Beach, bringing a new price point to the Surfers Paradise apartment market.

The developer will release one-bedroom apartments from $825,000 and two-bedroom apartments from $1.24 million in the three-tower development.

According to Urbis, the starting price for the two-bedroom apartments is more than $400,000 below the weighted average sale price for comparable two-bedroom apartments in Surfers Paradise during 2025, which was pinned at $1.7 million.

&nbsp;

Urbis reported quarterly average sale prices for new two-bedroom, two-bathroom apartments ranged from around $1.2 million to $1.7 million throughout 2025, peaking in the December quarter.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=106566 project_image_fid=185853]

Paradiso Place is now moving into its formal sales campaign, with a limited early-release opportunity available ahead of the public launch.

The development will comprise 845 apartments across three towers rising 40, 41 and 44 storeys from a 1.15-hectare site spanning an entire city block. The towers will sit above a new retail precinct.

"Paradiso Place represents a rare opportunity in today's market, offering premium apartments at a price point that is significantly more competitive than anything else currently available," SPG Land Sales Director Brad McMahon said.

"When you look at comparable new developments across Surfers Paradise, Main Beach and the Southern Beaches precinct, buyers are typically paying hundreds of thousands more for a similar product.

"The scale of this project and the developer-builder construction model allows us to unlock efficiencies that smaller developments simply cannot achieve. We are passing those benefits directly to buyers, while still delivering a five-star residential experience with an unmatched lifestyle."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=106566 project_image_fid=374280]

Each of the three towers designed by Rothelowman will have its own podium, connected by an elevated skybridge network to create a beachside village for residents. The resident amenity has been designed to rival a five-star hotel, with private dining rooms, resident lounges and entertainment spaces.

McMahon said the pricing strategy was a deliberate response to the current market.

"What Paradiso Place offers is a unique balance, genuine value within a premium market. Buyers are not compromising on quality, design or amenity, they are gaining access to it at a more competitive price point at a time when prices across the Gold Coast continue to reach new highs."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=106566 project_image_fid=362498]

Located around 100 metres from the beach and within walking distance of the Surfers Paradise North light rail station, Paradiso Place occupies one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held beachfront precincts.

Construction is continuing to progress, with eight of the project's 112 foundation piles now complete. Excavation has also commenced on the first diaphragm wall panel, with the first concrete poured on 15 June, marking a key milestone in the project's early works program.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=106566]

SPG Land launches $1.5 billion Paradiso Place at attractive price point

Luxury developer-builder <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/lowe-living">Lowe Living</a> has achieved a new Victorian benchmark for an off-the-plan apartment, with the sale of two penthouses at its ultra-exclusive Maison Savoy development in Brighton.

The two penthouses achieved a combined sale rate of $49,926 per sqm. Both transactions eclipsed the previous identified Victorian off-the-plan price-per-square-metre benchmark, set by the 449 sqm apartment at Como Toorak, which sold at $46,659 per sqm.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=140818 project_image_fid=366473]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/maison-savoy-brighton-150-esplanade-brighton-vic-3186">Maison Savoy</a>, Lowe Living's redevelopment of the former Brighton Savoy Hotel on absolute beachfront land at 150 The Esplanade, Brighton, has gained significant momentum since launching just eight weeks ago. Around 30 per cent of the project's 19 residences have already been secured, generating approximately $45 million in sales.

"Securing two of the three penthouse sales at this stage, within eight weeks of launching to market speaks to the confidence our clients place in Lowe Living," Lowe Living co-founder Emma Lowe said.

"They know we'll be with them through every stage of the journey, and that assurance is something we've worked hard to earn and never take for granted."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=140818 project_image_fid=366474]

Lowe said Maison Savoy was conceived as a genuine alternative to a prestige Brighton home, combining house-scale proportions with the convenience, security and lock-up-and-leave appeal of apartment living.

Lowe Living co-founder Tim Lowe said the early sales success demonstrated the resilience of Melbourne's prestige market and highlighted the growing demand for house-sized apartments among ultra-high-net-worth buyers.

"The Melbourne market has definitely been tested in recent years, with interest rates and global economic factors all creating a period of uncertainty across the real estate sector. The sales success at Maison Savoy however demonstrates that confidence remains exceptionally strong at the top end of the market.

"The prestige market is being driven by long-term lifestyle decisions rather than short-term market sentiment, which continues to create a level of certainty that befits an absolute beachfront property in a blue-chip location like Brighton.

"Brighton's fundamentals remain among the strongest in Melbourne, with limited new supply, enduring demand from an overwhelmingly local owner-occupier market, and a rare combination of beachfront amenity and proximity to the CBD."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=140818 project_image_fid=374378]

According to Cotality, Brighton remains one of Melbourne's most tightly held prestige suburbs, with an average ownership tenure of 15.3 years for houses and 12.3 years for units, while more than 73 per cent of homes are owner-occupied.

Tim Lowe said selling two of the project's three penthouses so early in the campaign was an uncommon result.

"This sales result is a reflection of quality and understanding the local market. It's incredibly rare to transact the penthouses so early in a sales campaign in any project so to have sold two of the three penthouses at Maison Savoy so soon after launch, all in-house without any external sales agency appointed, is reflective of our careful consideration of our buyers' needs and lifestyle.

"This is knowledge that is accumulated not just from data and demographic analysis, but via a deeply embedded understanding of how this type of buyer wants to live and feel in their home. We pride ourselves on getting to know our clients personally, and over the last 10 years we have been able to refine our product offering by talking one-on-one with our clients about their design and floorplan preferences.

"Being a fully integrated developer-builder with an in-house design and sales team allows us to lead every part of the process and ensure the highest quality of product and service at every touchpoint. It's a really important part of our DNA and the recent sales success at Maison Savoy indicates that our clients and purchasers are resonating with this point of difference.

"It reinforces that demand remains strong for thoughtfully designed residences that offer rarity, lifestyle and long-term value in tightly held locations, which ultimately validates Maison Savoy's positioning as creating a new benchmark for house-scale, wellness-led apartment living on Brighton's beachfront."

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=140818 project_image_fid=366480]

The residences at Maison Savoy start from 295 sqm, with most enjoying uninterrupted views across Port Phillip Bay. The project sits moments from the Brighton Bathing Boxes, Royal Brighton Yacht Club, Middle Brighton Baths and Church Street's retail and dining precinct.

A key feature of the development is its private residents-only bathhouse, curated by the founder of Aurora Spa &amp; Bathhouse and modelled on traditional European bathing rituals and the award-winning Sorrento bathhouse.

The wellness offering includes a hydrotherapy pool, salt room, sauna, steam room, cold plunge pool, foot activation zone and a Vichy rainfall bed, one of only a handful in Australia. Residents will also have access to a Technogym studio, lounge spaces and a dedicated concierge service offering everything from morning coffee delivery and restaurant bookings to dry cleaning and home coordination.

"Wellness-led design has become a defining factor for luxury buyers," Emma Lowe said.

"Purchasers increasingly value homes that enhance wellbeing through thoughtful design, private amenity, privacy and liveability."

The penthouse purchasers are now undertaking a bespoke customisation process curated personally by architect Pete Kennon and the Lowe Living team, one of the developer's signature service offerings.

Construction on the $160 million transformation of the former Brighton Savoy Hotel site commenced last month, with completion expected in early 2028. The project has secured funding from NAB alongside development partner Monark.

Just one penthouse remains available, along with a limited number of two and three-bedroom residences starting from $3.75 million.

Lowe Living currently has eight projects on the market across Melbourne and recently celebrated its 10th anniversary, having grown a $1 billion development pipeline alongside a $350 million construction pipeline.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=140818]

Lowe Living set new Melbourne off the plan apartment record

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

The NAB has cut its variable investor interest-only rate by 30 basis points to 2.99 per cent.

The big four lender also cut its variable principle and interest loan for investors with an 80 per cent or less loan/value ratio to 2.79 per cent last week.

“NAB wants a bigger slice of the action in the investor market and have been tweaking both their serviceability rules and their rates to attract new business, after losing ground to its competitors in this arena," 
RateCity.com.au research director Sally Tindall said.

With new lending to investors in March growing the fastest rate in 18 years, the NAB was attempting to increase its share.

“These are our lowest ever advertised variable rates for property investors,” NAB executive for home ownership Andy Kerr told The Australian.

NAB offers the lowest rate for that class of loan of the big four banks, but smaller lenders have lower offers.

Citi is offering 2.59 per cent, ING 2.64 per cent, HSBC and Macquarie 2.69 per cent and UBank 2.74 per cent.

Last week the NAB’s group chief economist Alan Oster noted the recent small rises in four and five-year fixed-rate home loans for owner occupiers reflected growing inflationary fears in the bond market however borrowers are unlikely to be caught out by steeper rises until 2025.

Oster said adjustments in longer term fixed-rate loans are the result of a sell-off on the bond market as investors worry there is too much stimulus in the market and central banks will need to begin tightening, the AFR noted.

The big four lender also cut its variable principle and interest loan for investors with an 80 per cent or less loan/value ratio to 2.79 per cent last week

jchancellor

NAB cuts variable investor interest-only rate by 30 basis points to 2.99 per cent

<h2 class="legacy">EXPERT INSIGHT</h2>

Victorian treasurer Tim Pallas&rsquo;s three-pronged strategy to raise an extra <a href="https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/contributing-fair-share-stronger-victoria">A$2.7 billion in property taxes</a> over the next four years is a case of two out of three ain&rsquo;t bad.

<h2>Land tax ✅</h2>

First, Pallas will raise $1.5 billion over four years by lifting land taxes on landholdings worth between $1.8 and $3 million by 0.25%, and by 0.3 percentage points on landholdings worth more than $3 million.

This is a good move. Taxes levied on the value of landholdings are among the <a href="https://theconversation.com/abolish-stamp-duty-the-act-shows-the-rest-of-us-how-to-tax-property-105378">most efficient states can impose</a>. And land taxes offer a more sustainable and less-volatile tax base than stamp duties on property transactions.

<h2>Windfall gains levy ✅</h2>

Second, developers and landowners who reap windfall gains when their property is rezoned will be hit with a 50% levy if the gain is $500,000 or more, with the tax phasing in from windfalls above $100,000. The new levy will not apply to growth-zone land where developers already pay the <a href="https://www.sro.vic.gov.au/growth-areas-infrastructure-contribution">Growth Areas Infrastructure Contribution </a>charge.

Again, this is a good move. It should reduce incentives for <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/how-money-talks-in-victorian-politics-five-lessons-from-the-casey-corruption-scandal-20201218-p56oo3.html">corruption</a> when planning applications are decided.

As a tax, collecting unearned windfall gains is extraordinarily efficient, so efficient it shouldn&rsquo;t even be called a tax but a charge for a change in allowable land use, which is <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-states-are-crying-poor-they-wouldnt-if-they-charged-for-rezoning-142838">what it is</a>.

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The new re-zoning charge won&rsquo;t raise much in the short term: just $124 million over four years.

But the next time there is a major rezoning &mdash; think of the bonanzas that have flowed to land holders from previous rezonings in <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/report-slams-matthew-guy-on-rezoning-of-fishermans-bend-20151019-gkcyrv.html">Melbourne&rsquo;s Fisherman&rsquo;s Bend</a> and the Docklands &mdash; it will deliver taxpayers hundreds of millions if not billions.

The property lobby <a href="https://www.afr.com/property/commercial/victorian-windfall-tax-will-hit-urban-infill-developers-say-20210516-p57sbh">has been quick to claim</a> that charging for rezoning windfalls will deter higher-density development in Melbourne, or increase prices. Both claims should be ignored.

Capturing a share of rezoning windfalls won&rsquo;t deter developers. Instead it could make it easier to solve Melbourne&rsquo;s housing crisis while reducing incentives for corruption in planning decisions.

Planning rules make it hard to build more housing in inner suburbs. Zoning for higher density is necessary, but unpopular. Local residents partly object because they think developers are getting a free kick.

The Victorian treasurer&rsquo;s decision to make the winners pay for some of their winnings will make the process fairer and less divisive.

It&rsquo;s a myth that charges for changes in land use raise home prices. Australian evidence suggests those lucky enough to own land before it is rezoned <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0264275117301051">pay the charges</a> rather than pass them on to eventual homebuyers, which might be why they object.

And future developers will pay less for their land, because the expectation of windfall gains won&rsquo;t be built into the price.

The ACT Government has charged <a href="https://www.planning.act.gov.au/leasing-and-titles/varying-crown-leases/lease-variation-charge">75%</a> for land value uplift for three decades without scaring away developers.

But the third prong of the Pallas plan &mdash; lifting stamp duty from 5.5% to 6.5% on properties that sell for more than $2 million &mdash; is a step in the wrong direction.

<h2>More stamp duty ❌</h2>

Stamp duties are among the most <a href="https://theconversation.com/abolish-stamp-duty-the-act-shows-the-rest-of-us-how-to-tax-property-105378">inefficient</a> and inequitable taxes Australia has.

They discourage people from moving to housing and cities that better suit their needs, and they are inequitable discourage people from moving to better jobs.

And the revenue they provide is volatile: any slowdown in property sales &mdash; as happened during COVID took hold &ndash; punches a big hole in state budgets.

Few Victorians will be affected by this tax hike: less than 5% of all Melbourne homes (and just 0.5% of regional Victorian homes) went for $2 million or more last year, according to <a href="https://twitter.com/timlawless/status/1394500338846081026">Corelogic</a>.

Someone buying a $2.5 million home will pay just an extra $5,000 in stamp duty.

But Pallas should be looking to replace stamp duty with broad-based land taxes, as <a href="https://www.treasury.nsw.gov.au/property-tax-proposal">NSW</a> is planning to do.

Tax hikes are rarely popular. But they will become increasingly necessary as states try to repair their budgets after the COVID crisis.

In the quest for a better tax system, Pallas has just taken two steps forward, and one step back.

<img alt="The Conversation" f="" height="1" j="" m8tkrlktj="" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/161353/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" width="1" />

<hr />
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/brendan-coates-154644">Brendan Coates</a>, Program Director, Household Finances, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/grattan-institute-1168">Grattan Institute</a>

This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-lesson-for-australia-out-of-victorias-property-tax-hikes-two-out-of-three-aint-bad-161353">original article</a>.

Victorian treasurer Tim Pallas’s three-pronged strategy to raise an extra A$2.7 billion in property taxes over the next four years is a case of two out of three ain’t bad

jordan_55689

The lesson for Australia out of Victoria’s 3 property tax hikes

EXPERT INSIGHT

Despite overwhelmingly endorsing the general stance of the 2021 budget, only a few of the 56 leading economists surveyed by the Economic Society of Australia and The Conversation are prepared to give it top marks.

Asked to grade the budget on a scale of A to F given Treasurer Josh Frydenberg&rsquo;s objective of <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/josh-frydenberg-2018/speeches/budget-speech-2021-22">securing Australia&rsquo;s economic recovery and building for the future</a>, only three of the 56 economists surveyed gave it an &lsquo;A&rsquo;.

But a very large 41% awarded it either an A or a B, up from <a href="https://theconversation.com/could-do-better-top-australian-economists-award-the-budget-a-cautious-pass-148624">37%</a> in last year&rsquo;s October COVID budget.

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The economists chosen to take part in the Economic Society of Australia survey have been recognised by their peers as Australia&rsquo;s leaders in fields including macroeconomics, economic modelling, housing and budget policy.

Among them are a former head of Australia&rsquo;s prime minister&rsquo;s department, a former member of the Reserve Bank board, a former OECD director and two former frontbenchers, one from Labor and one from the Coalition.

Of the panel members who commented on the historic stance of the budget &mdash; expanding the size of the deficit <a href="https://theconversation.com/frydenberg-spends-the-bounty-to-drive-unemployment-to-new-lows-159229">beyond what it would have been</a> in order to drive down unemployment &mdash; all but three offered enthusiastic endorsement.

Emeritus Professor Sue Richardson of the University of Adelaide commended the government for at last turning its back on a &ldquo;debt and deficit&rdquo; mantra, that was &ldquo;never justified&rdquo;.

Professor Richard Holden praised the &ldquo;watershed&rdquo;. In due course there should be increased attention paid to the structure and quality of spending, but for now we should applaud the &ldquo;Frydenberg Pivot&rdquo;.

Saul Eslake said the strategy of providing further stimulus to push unemployment down to levels <a href="https://theconversation.com/josh-frydenberg-has-the-opportunity-to-transform-australia-permanently-lowering-unemployment-156175">not seen consistently since the first half of the 1970s</a> was the right one. It meant the Reserve Bank and the treasury would no longer be working at &ldquo;cross purposes&rdquo; as they had been for most of the past two decades.

But Eslake said the budget fell short in the A$20 billion it devoted to tax concessions for small business in the mistaken and unfounded belief it is &ldquo;the engine room of the economy&rdquo; and in housing measures that failed to heed warnings from history about the risks of ultra-high loan-to-valuation ratios.

Rebecca Cassells of the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre said the claim that 60,000 jobs would flow from extending the temporary loss carry back and full expensing tax concessions was &ldquo;a stretch,&rdquo; with the connection quite tenuous.

Bucks, but not the biggest bang

Consultant Nicki Hutley said a bigger boost to the JobSeeker unemployment payment would have achieved much more than the $7.8 billion one-year extension of the &ldquo;<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-low-and-middle-income-tax-offset-has-been-extended-yet-again-it-delivers-help-neither-when-nor-where-its-needed-160772">lamington</a>&rdquo; low and middle income tax offset.

Economic modeller Janine Dixon said while spending more to get more people into work was the &ldquo;right setting for the times,&rdquo; Australia had to ensure its workforce was ready to supply the extra aged care and child care and disability services it had funded by delivering the right training, especially in the absence of migration, which has traditionally been used to address workforce shortages.

Labour market specialist Elisabetta Magnani said measures to boost wages in the caring occupations could have achieved the double bonus of drawing more workers into those occupations and shrinking the gender pay gap, given that more than 80% of the workers in residential aged care are female.

Little for net-zero

Michael Keating, a former head of the prime minister&rsquo;s department, said restoring high wage growth would require big investments in education and training, which sits oddly with the cuts in funding for universities. The extra funding for apprentices and trainees only makes up for past cuts.

Professor Gigi Foster said the $1.7 billion spent on childcare subsidies was only &ldquo;surface-level fiddling with the sticker price&rdquo;.

&ldquo;Where is the supply-side intervention required to make childcare services sustainably accessible and of high quality?&rdquo; she asked. &ldquo;Childcare should be viewed as social infrastructure. Instead, when we heard infrastructure, it was mainly code for transportation.&rdquo;

Margaret Nowak of Curtin University said a budget that really &ldquo;built for the future&rdquo; would not have focused on the &ldquo;infrastructure of the past&rdquo;. Professor Richardson lamented that most of the infrastructure spending was on traditional &ldquo;roads and ports&rdquo; when the future was net-zero emissions.

&ldquo;There is little in the budget that supports this transformation,&rdquo; she said. &ldquo;It is an extraordinary lost opportunity.

Nicki Hutley said retooling the economy for zero emissions would have brought forth &quot;more jobs, higher wages, more growth and private sector co-investment&rdquo;.

Some concern about debt

Former OECD director Adrian Blundell-Wignall said a much-greater investment in vaccinations would have helped &ldquo;get the economy back to work and the borders opened sooner which, in turn, would have saved unemployment benefits, tourism, aviation support and the need for the extension of temporary measures&rdquo;.

And he was concerned that a jump in US inflation might cause international interest rates to rise faster than expected, forcing Australia to cut its projected budget deficits in order to stabilise net debt.

Former International Monetary Fund economist Tony Makin, a <a href="https://research.treasury.gov.au/external-paper/the-effectiveness-of-federal-fiscal-policy-a-review">critic</a> of government spending during the global financial crisis, described the budget spending as a &ldquo;knee-jerk primitive Keynesian reaction&rdquo; to the COVID recession.

Unease about going into debt to keep and create jobs aside (and very few of the economists surveyed shared Makin&rsquo;s unease) the criticisms of the economists surveyed relate to execution and details. If Frydenberg had been judged on his approach, most would have given him an A.

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-martin-682709">Peter Martin</a>, Visiting Fellow, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/crawford-school-of-public-policy-australian-national-university-3292">Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University</a>

This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/great-approach-weak-execution-economists-decline-to-give-budget-top-marks-161347">original article</a>.

Asked to grade the budget on a scale of A to F given Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s objective of securing Australia’s economic recovery and building for the future, only three of the 56 economists surveyed gave it an A

Economists decline to give budget top marks

The Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has confirmed another 10,000 places will be added to the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme (FHLDS) on budget night.&nbsp;

The incentive allows first home buyers to build a new, or buy a newly built, home with a deposit as little as 5 per cent.

The FHLDS which consists of 10,000 spots in each wave was an 2019 election promise of the Morrison government to provide first home buyers the opportunity to purchase a home with a 5% deposit without paying lenders mortgage insurance (LMI), with the government guaranteeing the remaining 15%.

The insurance is normally payable with a deposit of less than 20 per cent and can cost tens of thousands of dollars.

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More than 25 lenders have participate in the scheme over the past two years.

It is means tested, with eligibility capped at income of $125,000 for singles and $200,000 for couples.

The last wave of the scheme was just for new home builds and new apartments.

There has been no detail on any changes to the scheme but the last wave saw the caps on the value of eligible new homes lifted to $950,000 in Sydney ($600,000 in regional NSW) and $850,000 in Melbourne ($550,000 in the rest of Victoria).&nbsp;

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In the other capital cities participants could purchase new property worth $550,000.

Some 1,800 recipients in the last round failed to proceed with their purchases so Housing Minister Michael Sukkar announced in February government had reissued the unused guarantees from the 2019/20 financial year.

As well, the government&#39;s federal budget is increasing the maximum amount of superannuation contributions that can be released under the First Home Super Saver Scheme to be used to save for a first home deposit. It is rising from $30,000 to $50,000.

&quot;It is about giving people the opportunity to get into the market,&quot; the Treasurer told The Canberra Times.

Frydenberg has been also in contact with the Reserve Bank and lending regulators about taking the heat from the hot property market.

&quot;They are watching it closely. But to date, the new loan commitments have been largely owner occupiers. And as I say, first time buyers are coming to the market in greater numbers,&quot; Mr Fydenberg said.

The Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has confirmed another 10,000 places will be added to the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme on budget night. 


10,000 First Home Loan Deposit Scheme places available in 2021 Federal Budget

<h2>EXPERT INSIGHT</h2>

It&rsquo;s been quite the week for the Aussie property market. National home prices are straddling record highs, the value of new home lending commitments are at historic highs and council approvals to build new private detached houses are at all-time highs. Leading indicators of construction activity are also at the highest level on record, pointing to continued home price gains this year and next.

Commonwealth Bank (CBA) Group economists expect prices to lift by a combined 14 per cent in 2021 and 2022.&nbsp;

That said, home price growth and residential building activity could ease from elevated levels as affordability constraints for first home buyers, the HomeBuilder expiry, shortages of tradies, supply disruptions, rising building material costs and slower population growth combine to weigh on demand. Of course, a prolonged period of record low interest rates - as signalled by the Reserve Bank - remains a key support for new home building and &lsquo;renos&rsquo;. &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7633 project_image_fid=80007]

The Australian Industry Group (AiGroup) and Housing Industry Association&rsquo;s (HIA) Performance of Construction index (PCI) eased from historic highs in April. But the underlying activity index climbed 5.1 points to a record high of 62.8 points as building work increased ahead of the HomeBuilder grant deadline on March 31. While house building activity is a smidgen below February&rsquo;s record levels, engineering construction lifted 2.3 points to an all-time high of 63.8 as infrastructure-related building cranked up a gear courtesy of state government spending.

And the pipeline of residential building work is expected to remain elevated in the near-term if leading indicators of activity, such as building approvals, are any guide. Council approvals to build new homes surged by 17.4 per cent to 23,176 units in March &ndash; the most in 3 years. Approvals are up 47.4 per cent on a year ago &ndash; the strongest annual growth rate in 11 years. Private sector house approvals were up 0.1 per cent to an all-time high of 14,117 units. The value of alterations &amp; additions approved were up by 7.3 per cent in March to a record $1,072.5 million.

Western Australian building approvals - while down in March - were up a massive 129.2 per cent on a year ago. And the rolling annual number of Greater Perth building approvals hit a 4&frac12;-year high of 19,427 units in March. The building boom is also evident in Queensland and South Australia with March approvals up 82.2 per cent and 69.6 per cent, respectively, on a year ago. Rolling annual numbers are broadly at 2-year highs in both states. &nbsp;

New car sales have bounced back from their most recent cycle low in October 2020. Sales totalled 92,347 units in April &ndash; the most sales for an April month on record. Sales are up 137.2 per cent on a year ago &ndash; from the depths of pandemic lockdown.

While the global semiconductor chip shortage is weighing on the supply of new cars for eager car buyers, its boosting the profits of car dealerships with less price discounting due to low inventories and strong buyer demand. Peter Warren Automotive (PWA Holdings) made a successful Aussie sharemarket debut last week, joining Eagers Automotive and Autosports Group as the only car dealership groups on the Australian Stock Exchange.&nbsp;

What do you need to know?&nbsp;

Building Approvals &ndash; March

Council approvals to build new homes rose by 17.4 per cent to 23,176 units in March &ndash; the most in 3 years. Approvals are up 47.4 per cent on a year ago &ndash; the strongest annual growth rate in 11 years.

Total house approvals rose by 1.2 per cent to a record-high 14,404 units in March to be up 62.2 per cent on a year ago. Private sector house approvals were up 0.1 per cent to an all-time high of 14,117 units to be up 60.9 per cent on a year ago. Public sector house approvals surged 117.4 per cent in March to 287 units but were still up a massive 173.3 per cent on a year ago.

Apartment approvals jumped 59.4 per cent to a 2&frac12;-year high of 8,772 units in March to be up 28.1 per cent on a year ago.

Over the past year 198,439 new homes were approved - a 2-year high.

Dwelling approvals across states in March: NSW (+26.9 per cent); Victoria (+24.7 per cent); Queensland &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; (+12.1 per cent); South Australia (+3.5 per cent); Western Australia (-6.4 per cent); Tasmania (-4.8 per cent).

The value of all commercial and residential building approvals rose by 36.3 per cent in March. Total residential approvals lifted 22.9 per cent with new building up 25.4 per cent and alterations &amp; additions up by 7.3 per cent to all-time highs. Commercial building umped 59.4 per cent.&nbsp;

New vehicle sales - April

New vehicle sales totalled 92,347 units in April &ndash; the highest number of sales for the month of April on record. Sales are up 137.2 per cent on a year ago.

The Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries reported:

&ldquo;The April 2021 market of 92,347 new vehicle sales is an increase of 53,421 vehicle sales or 137.2 per cent on April 2020 (38,926) vehicle sales. April 2021 had 23.6 selling days compared to April 2020 with 23.9 which resulted in an increase of 2284.3 vehicle sales per day.

The Passenger Vehicle Market is up by 8,906 vehicle sales (97.2 per cent) over the same month last year; the Sports Utility Market is up by 31,154 vehicle sales (172.9 per cent); the Light Commercial Market is up by 12,278 vehicle sales (130.1 per cent); and the Heavy Commercial Vehicle Market is up by 1,083 vehicle sales (46.9 per cent) versus April 2020.

Toyota was market leader in April, followed by Mazda and Mitsubishi. Toyota led Mazda with a margin of 10,156 vehicle sales and 11.0 market share points.&rdquo; &nbsp;

Sales across states and territories over the year to April: NSW (up 143.9 per cent); Victoria (up 142.0 per cent); Queensland (up 144.4 per cent); South Australia (up 134.7 per cent); Western Australia (up 139.0 per cent); Tasmania (up 157.6 per cent); Northern Territory (up 98.4 per cent); ACT (up 4.1 per cent).

In the 12 months to April, sales totalled 1,000,676 &ndash; a 13-month high &ndash; to be up 1.0 per cent on a year ago. In the year to April, SUVs accounted for a record 69.3 per cent of combined SUV and passenger car sales.

AiGroup &amp; HIA Performance of Construction index (PCI) &ndash; April

The Australian Industry Group (AiGroup) and HIA Performance of Construction index (PCI) eased from a record high of 61.8 in March to 59.1 in April. Readings above 50 indicate an expansion of activity.

In seasonally-adjusted terms, PCI activity rose 5.1 points in April to a record 62.8. But employment fell 3.9 points to 59.2. New orders lost 7.7 points to 57. Supplier deliveries were down 6.1 points to 56.0 &ndash; but all three readings are hovering just below historic highs in March. And input prices eased 0.4 points in April to 92.5. Selling prices rose 1.5 points to a record 73.3 and average wages fell 6.4 points to 65.4.

Ai-Group noted: &ldquo;The new orders index appears to have peaked in Q1 of 2021, reflecting the very successful HomeBuilders program. This is in line with recent house approvals and financing trends. Although approvals have already peaked, the pipeline of work created by this spike in demand is likely to keep home builders busy for many months to come.&rdquo;

And, &ldquo;Builders across all sectors continue to report shortages of skilled trades contractors, key supplies and components. They also report rising input prices, freight delays and high freight charges. Home builders remain wary of a post-HomeBuilder demand slump but are hopeful that low interest rates and other factors will help to support demand.&rdquo;

IHS Markit Purchasing Managers&rsquo; indexes (PMI) &ndash; April

The &lsquo;final&rsquo; IHS Markit services purchasing manager index rose from 55.5 in March to a record 58.8 in April. The composite index, which measures combined services and manufacturing output, rose from 55.5 to an historic high of 58.9. Readings above 50 indicate an expansion of activity. Data collection began in May 2016.

IHS Markit economists reported, &ldquo;April PMI data signalled that business activity across the Australian service sector rose at the strongest pace since data collection began in May 2016, reflecting further moves towards recovery. This was aided by the further easing of COVID-19 restrictions which boosted customer confidence and demand alike.&rdquo;

And, &ldquo;Service providers were enthused by the upturn in demand and expanding their workforce numbers at the joint-fastest pace on record. Nonetheless, strains on business capacity remained evident and intensified amid ongoing supplier delays.&rdquo;

What are the implications for investors?

The HomeBuilder stimulus has been incredibly successful. Commonwealth Treasury data shows that 121,363 HomeBuilder applications have been received since June 2020 with Victorian applications highest at 35,169 as at April 9, 2021. The federal government has said that the scheme has supported around $30 billion of residential projects, supporting jobs and boosting building activity following the pandemic shock.

While there are concerns that the demand pull-forward of council building approvals ahead of the HomeBuilder expiry could ease, construction bottlenecks have seen the federal government recently announce the extension of the building commencement requirement of the program, supporting activity. That said, construction prices are lifting with the PCI selling prices up 1.5 points in April to 73.3, signalling that builders are passing on their cost increases to home buyers and renovators. With inflationary pressures building - and home prices and new investor lending lifting &ndash; housing credit growth appears set to accelerate. Given this backdrop, an eventual policy response from regulators appears likely. &nbsp;

National home prices are straddling record highs, the value of new home lending commitments are at historic highs and council approvals to build new private detached houses are at all-time highs

Home values to rise by combined 14% in 2021 and 2022: CBA's Ryan Felsman

Australian Prudential Regulation Authority has warned mutual banks that they appear to be assuming more risk through the rise in loans with LVRs of 90 per cent or more.

The APRA deputy chair John Lonsdale noted the mutual banks' proportion of new housing loans with the loan-to-value ratio (LVR) of 90 per cent or more had risen from 11 per cent in March 2019 to 17 per cent in December 2020.

Lonsdale told a Customer Owned Banking Association forum that this is a “notable” increase.

And that the current housing market environment was "characterised by record low interest rates, rising house prices and high household indebtedness." 

He said given that the predominate business of Australia’s banking system is mortgage lending, APRA's focus was on ensuring that authorised deposit-taking institutions (ADI) manage risks to their balance sheets in this environment. 

A mutual bank, also known as a customer-owned bank, is a credit union or building society that has gone through the regulatory process needed to use the word “bank” in its trading name.

"Loan portfolios of mutuals are heavily weighted towards housing, and COBA members need to be particularly attuned to shifts in their risk composition.

"APRA’s expectation is that ADIs should be careful about relaxing risk appetite limits and lending standards at this time. 

"It is important that standards are maintained, monitored and tested," he said adding APRA had recently sought details from the 14 largest ADIs requesting more detailed data on their lending portfolios, and seeking assurances from Boards regarding lending standards. 

"All boards should be closely monitoring their lending standards, comfortable with their risk appetite and testing whether serviceability policies used to assess borrowers remain prudent in an environment of extremely low interest rates.

"Smaller ADIs are also expected to be rigorous in monitoring and testing their own risk appetite and lending standards, rather than waiting for a call from their APRA supervisor," he added.

“While LVR is only one of a number of metrics that need to be considered, it does raise the question of whether the mutual sector is taking on more risk in pursuit of market share, and how sustainable that is.

“As I mentioned at the outset, it’s critical in the current environment of heightened risk that boards remain highly attuned to shifts in the composition of their lending book."

The mortgagebusiness.com.au website noted Lonsdale advised that APRA was aware of the cost pressures faced by the mutual bank sector.

He noted the ratio of non-performing housing loans revealed the strong performance of mutuals over the past decade. 

The ratio has remained relatively steady at around 0.4 per cent over recent years, and as at December of last year was less than half that of the majors – 0.4 per cent compared to 0.9 per cent. 

"It’s fair to say this differential is a reflection of the depth of understanding that mutuals have of their customers, and their ability to adhere to sound lending practices. 

"That said, it’s worth noting that 14 mutuals have non-performing housing loan ratios of over 0.6 per cent, which is 50 per cent higher than the average for the sector – so performance does vary."

The APRA deputy chair John Lonsdale noted the mutual banks' proportion of new housing loans with the loan-to-value ratio (LVR) of 90 per cent or more had risen

APRA warns of rise in housing loans with LVRs of 90 per cent or more

The economic recovery in Australia has been stronger than expected and is forecast to continue, according to the Reserve Bank of Australia which again affirmed it will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range.

&quot;For this to occur, the labour market will need to be tight enough to generate wages growth that is materially higher than it is currently.

&quot;This is unlikely to be until 2024 at the earliest,&quot; the board advised today.

CommSec senior economist Ryan Felsman noted it has been five ears since annual underlying inflation has been in the Reserve Bank&rsquo;s target zone.

&quot;Previously forecasting higher inflation was enough to trigger interest rate hikes .....not anymore,&quot; he said.

The RBA did note housing markets have strengthened further, with prices rising in all major markets.

&quot;Housing credit growth has picked up, with strong demand from owner-occupiers, especially first-home buyers.

&quot;Given the environment of rising housing prices and low interest rates, the Bank will be monitoring trends in housing borrowing carefully and it is important that lending standards are maintained.&quot;

The RBA noted given the environment of rising housing prices and low interest rates, the Bank will be monitoring trends in housing borrowing carefully



No rate rise until 2024, while RBA continues to demand stringent lending standards

RBA Governor Philip Lowe&#39;s meeting statement

At its meeting today, the Board decided to maintain the current policy settings, including the targets of 10&nbsp;basis points for the cash rate and the yield on the 3-year Australian Government bond, as well as the parameters of the Term Funding Facility and the government bond purchase program.

The global economy is continuing to recover from the pandemic and the outlook is for strong growth this year and next. The recovery remains uneven, though, and some countries are yet to contain the virus. Global trade in goods has picked up strongly and commodity prices are mostly higher than at the start of the year. However, inflation remains low and below central bank targets.

Sovereign bond yields have been steady recently after increasing earlier in the year due to the positive news on vaccines and the additional fiscal stimulus in the United States. Inflation expectations have lifted from near record lows to be closer to central banks&#39; targets. The 3-year government bond yield in Australia is at the Board&#39;s target of 10&nbsp;basis points and lending rates for most borrowers are at record lows. The Australian dollar remains in the upper end of the range of recent years.

The economic recovery in Australia has been stronger than expected and is forecast to continue. This recovery is especially evident in the strong growth in employment, with the unemployment rate falling further to 5.6&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent in March and the number of people with a job now exceeding the pre-pandemic level.

The Bank&#39;s central scenario for GDP growth has been revised up further, with growth of 4&frac34;&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent expected over 2021 and 3&frac12;&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent over 2022. A pick-up in business investment is expected and household spending will be supported by the strengthening in balance sheets over the past year. The unemployment rate is expected to continue to decline, to be around 5&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent at the end of this year and around 4&frac12;&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent at the end of 2022.

Despite the strong recovery in economic activity, the recent CPI data confirmed that inflation pressures remain subdued in most parts of the Australian economy. A pick-up in inflation and wages growth is expected, but it is likely to be only gradual and modest. In the central scenario, inflation in underlying terms is expected to be 1&frac12;&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent in 2021 and 2&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent in mid&nbsp;2023. In the short term, CPI inflation is expected to rise temporarily to be above 3&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent in the June quarter because of the reversal of some&nbsp;COVID-19-related price reductions.

Housing markets have strengthened further, with prices rising in all major markets. Housing credit growth has picked up, with strong demand from owner-occupiers, especially first-home buyers. Given the environment of rising housing prices and low interest rates, the Bank will be monitoring trends in housing borrowing carefully and it is important that lending standards are maintained.

At its July meeting, the Board will consider whether to retain the April 2024 bond as the target bond for the 3-year yield target or to shift to the next maturity, the November 2024 bond. The Board is not considering a change to the target of 10&nbsp;basis points. At the July meeting, the Board will also consider future bond purchases following the completion of the second $100&nbsp;billion of purchases under the government bond purchase program in September. The Board is prepared to undertake further bond purchases to assist with progress towards the goals of full employment and inflation. The Board places a high priority on a return to full employment.

The date for final drawings under the Term Funding Facility is 30&nbsp;June 2021. Given that financial markets in Australia are operating well, the Board is not considering a further extension of this facility. Authorised deposit-taking institutions have drawn $100&nbsp;billion so far and a further $100&nbsp;billion is currently available. Given the facility provides funding for 3&nbsp;years, it will continue to support low funding costs in Australia until mid&nbsp;2024.

The Board is committed to maintaining highly supportive monetary conditions to support a return to full employment in Australia and inflation consistent with the target. It will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2&nbsp;to 3&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent target range. For this to occur, the labour market will need to be tight enough to generate wages growth that is materially higher than it is currently. This is unlikely to be until 2024 at the earliest.

The RBA kept the official cash rate at record lows at its May meeting

Housing markets strengthen further in all major markets: RBA Governor Philip Lowe's May 2021 meeting statement

The RBA maintained its current policy settings at its May meeting, keeping the official cash rate at a record low 0.1 per cent.

RBA governor Philip Lowe said housing markets have strengthened further, with prices rising in all major markets.

&quot;Housing credit growth has picked up, with strong demand from owner-occupiers, especially first-home buyers,&quot; Mr Lowe said.

&quot;Given the environment of rising housing prices and low interest rates, the Bank will be monitoring trends in housing borrowing carefully and it is important that lending standards are maintained.&quot;

The RBA stood by their view that rates won&#39;t likely change until 2024. Around&nbsp;65 per cent of experts surveyed in Finder&#39;s monthly RBA Cash Rate Survey believe there won&#39;t be any rate change until 2023.

AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver is one who believes a rate change will come before 2024.

&quot;While&nbsp;the economy is recovering faster than expected, the RBA is still a long way away from seeing its stated requirements for a rate hike &ndash; being a tight jobs market, wages growth well above 3% and actual inflation sustainably within the 2-3% target range,&quot; Oliver said.

&quot;A rate hike is still a fair way off although I think it will come before the RBA&rsquo;s expectation for &lsquo;2024 at the earliest&rsquo;.&rdquo;

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The clear&nbsp;message from the RBA however&nbsp;hasn&#39;t stopped banks changing their fixed rates, with Westpac, including their subsidiary banks including St George, Bank of Melbourne and BankSA, lifting their four-year fixed from 1.89 per cent to 2.19 per cent. They also raised their five-year fixed to 2.49 per cent.

The four-year rise copied the move by CBA in March, however CBA reduced its one and two-year fixed rates at the same time.

UHomeLoan also raised their three-year fixed by 10 basis points to 1.85 per cent.

&ldquo;This sudden wave of lenders increasing longer-term rates and decreasing shorter-term rates reveals a strategy to lock their customers in for shorter time periods,&quot; Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder said.

&ldquo;This can be seen as a bet on variable rates increasing sooner than expected. It also reveals that the tide could be turning on our historically low fixed home loan rate environment.&quot;

AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver is one who believes a rate change will come before 2024.

RBA hold rates at May meeting

While experts agree the RBA is unlikely to increase the cash rate for a while yet, this doesn&#39;t mean mortgage holders can rule out an out-of-cycle rate hike.&nbsp;

UBank announced an out-of-cycle move late last week, increasing its 3-year fixed rate from a near market-leading 1.75% to 1.85% (an increase of 10 basis points). Westpac also bumped up its fixed-term rates last Friday.&nbsp;

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If a homeowner with the average mortgage of $495,420* experienced a rate hike of 25 basis points from the current average variable rate of 4.27% to 4.52%, they would need to pay an extra $878 per year.&nbsp;

Over the course of a 30-year loan, this would cost them an extra $26,330 in interest.&nbsp;

Finder&rsquo;s Consumer Sentiment Tracker, a survey of 7,191 mortgage holders, found a monthly raise of $200 or less would cause financial distress for two in five mortgage holders (41%).

<img alt="" height="464" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/finder_may_3.jpg" width="686" />

Cooke said that while the cash rate isn&rsquo;t going anywhere, that doesn&rsquo;t mean home loan rates will stay put.

&ldquo;The last time the cash rate was held for an extended period of 34 months, banks changed their interest rates on average 7 times &ndash; 5 of which were increases.&quot;

&ldquo;It&rsquo;s important that homeowners factor in potential rate increases when applying for a mortgage &ndash; keeping a cushion in your budget can keep your budget from getting dicey down the track,&rdquo; Cooke said. &nbsp;

While experts agree the RBA is unlikely to increase the cash rate for a while yet, this doesn't mean mortgage holders can rule out an out-of-cycle rate hike

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