Around 400 additional homes could be built at Southwark Grounds on Port Road, lifting total site capacity from 1300 to around 1700 dwellings.

A recently approved code amendment would allow apartment towers of up to 14 storeys in some areas of Renewal SA’s redevelopment of the former West End Brewery.

Renewal SA Acting Chief Executive Shane Wingard said he welcomed the code amendment, with the increase in heights and homes making a positive impact on the supply of high-quality, well-connected housing close to the city.

“By going higher across some parts of Southwark Grounds, we are adding a substantial number of very well-located homes with little impact on project delivery time or planned open space,” Mr Wingard said.

Since the project officially launched in 2025, Mr Wingard said more than 12,000 enquiries had been received about living at Southwark Grounds.

“The very strong early interest we’ve seen since homes were first released in the precinct reinforces our plans to create more housing opportunities,” he said.

The Southwark Grounds code amendment was launched in December last year, with community engagement undertaken over five weeks from January.

It proposed increasing maximum building heights from eight to 14 storeys on the eastern section of Southwark Grounds, and to 12 storeys across the remainder of the site, with minimum building heights ranging from two to four storeys.

The code amendment was implemented through an Early Commencement policy in late January, allowing developers to quickly explore the viability of increased height and housing yield while other planning processes continue.

One of the first developers delivering apartment sites have already finalised redesigns to increase the number of apartments following the code amendment.

Samaras’ development adjacent to the future Colonel Light Park is now planning to deliver 125 apartments across 11 storeys, significantly greater than original plans of around 50 apartments across four storeys.

The developer is also exploring the potential for additional affordable housing outcomes.

Most of the apartments at Southwark Grounds will be delivered within a master-planned precinct on a large parcel of land on the eastern portion of the site, covering around two-thirds of its 8.4 hectares.

Wingard said detailed precinct planning over the coming months may identify further opportunities to increase yield further that could see total apartment numbers at Southwark Grounds, exceed this number.

Affordable homes at Southwark Grounds will also see a net increase, with Renewal SA maintaining its commitment to a minimum of 20 per cent affordable housing across the development.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Civil works have begun across the site, with construction under way on the first new roads surrounding a townhouse precinct in the south‑west corner of Southwark Grounds. This includes Renewal SA’s 17 Founder’s Row homes, which are on track for completion by Christmas.

“We expect to have people living at Southwark Grounds by the end of the year, so delivering roads and public spaces for those residents is among our highest priorities.”

Construction of 40 townhouses off Anderson Street, known as West Village and being delivered by Contour, is forecast to begin in mid‑2026. Kolabb’s Anderson Lane development will follow shortly after, delivering a further 26 townhouses.

Southwark Grounds is a state government‑led urban renewal project now set to deliver around 1,700 homes over the next decade.

Homes will be supported by a supermarket, a range of retail and hospitality offerings anchored by a revitalised Walkerville Brew Tower, a childcare centre, car parking and well‑connected public spaces.

Joel Robinson

400 new homes planned for Adelaide's former West End Brewery site

Brisbane developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/cavcorp">Cavcorp</a> has lodged plans for a new mixed-use residential development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/55-wyandra-street-teneriffe-qld-4005">55 Wyandra Street</a>, Teneriffe, anchored by an 85-metre public laneway designed to reconnect the suburb’s riverfront with the Gasworks precinct.

The buildings, known as Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane, would replace the existing Queensland Cotton head office site with a 15-storey residential tower transitioning to eight storeys toward Helen Street. The project has been designed by Plazibat Architects and lodged as a code assessable development application for 93 apartments across a 3,401 sqm mixed-use site within the Newstead and Teneriffe Waterfront neighbourhood plan.

Central to the scheme is the transformation of an existing service easement into a publicly accessible cross-block connection linking Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the new laneway will act as both a pedestrian shortcut and a landscaped civic space between the Teneriffe Riverwalk, ferry terminal, and Gasworks precinct.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="26e7f058-b065-4de8-b13d-a2b8cb64dfcc" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/bldg.png?VersionId=sELS0ZKYi361oYipUa1BIKfe_.DLZoFV" />

“The revised proposal delivers a legacy public-realm cross-block link, permanently secured for community use, transforming an existing private easement into a safe, high-quality pedestrian connection between the Teneriffe heritage riverwalk and the Gasworks–Long Island precinct,” the planning report states.

The laneway will sit beneath a large subtropical loggia integrated into the podium levels of the development. The design incorporates deep landscaping, water gardens, lobby spaces, business lounges, and ground-floor apartments to create what Cavcorp describes as a climate-responsive “urban verandah.”

The tower itself has been designed as a slender form with recessed floorplates and curved translucent corners inspired by contemporary Japanese architecture. The building height aligns with the Commercial Road precinct controls, which permit towers up to 15 storeys within proximity to Longland Street.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a8a17d40-43b6-4718-b3fd-67676fcbb485" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pers%202_1.png?VersionId=i3VwDtp5AmL_8InW7w4qRbDFEpb744Jt" />

The project will comprise a mix of larger-format apartments aimed at owner-occupiers, downsizers, and families. The proposed apartment mix includes 11 loggia apartments across the lower levels, 50 four-bedroom Sky-Terrace apartments from levels three to seven, and 32 Sky-Pool Homes occupying the upper tower levels. The Sky-Pool Homes will feature private thermal plunge pools integrated into oversized balconies.

According to the application, the apartments are intended to reinterpret the scale and character of Teneriffe’s woolstore conversions and Queensland homes within a vertical residential format.

“The sky-pool homes build on Cavcorp’s previous projects and introduce a distinct apartment typology to Teneriffe, informed by both local and international precedent and responding to an identified market demand for enhanced safety, space and amenity,” the planning submission notes.

A major focus of the proposal is its five-level wellness and lifestyle offering, extending from the basement through to the rooftop.

Amenities proposed include a rooftop Swim &amp; Racquet Club with a 25-metre Olympic lap pool and tennis court, coworking spaces and libraries, golf simulators, wine storage, concierge facilities, business lounges, pet wash areas, and rooftop longevity-focused wellness spaces with spas, outdoor fitness zones, and landscaped terraces.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="944b352c-49b9-4247-a4c6-5967b4b69fda" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/amenity.png?VersionId=Ed_qKjAtMwFT.5gfl3jiA9QwdWxSMsaX" />

All parking will be concealed within basement levels accessed from Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the deep-basement engineering approach allows the entire ground plane to prioritise landscaping, pedestrian movement, and active frontage rather than vehicle infrastructure.

The development continues Cavcorp’s concentration in Newstead and Teneriffe, where the Brisbane developer has delivered a number of apartment projects including Lucent, Le Bain, and Luminare, as well as the Long Island Wellness Precinct nearby. Several of those projects have received national design and architecture awards, including recognition under Brisbane’s “Buildings that Breathe” program.

Cavcorp unveils wellness-focused Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane apartment buildings

Focus Group Investments has lodged plans for a new apartment development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/64-70-hanover-street-fitzroy-vic-3065">64–70 Hanover Street</a> in Fitzroy, seeking to utilise the Victorian Government’s recently introduced Great Design Fast Track pathway to accelerate approvals for the project.

The proposal is among the latest developments to emerge through the state-led initiative, which was established to fast-track well-designed residential projects in activity centres and transport-connected inner-city locations. The pathway allows qualifying developments that meet elevated design and housing benchmarks to bypass traditional council planning timeframes and instead be assessed directly by the Department of Transport and Planning.

Designed by SJB, the development will comprise a mix of apartments above activated lower levels, with a strong focus on architectural articulation, landscaping, and communal amenity. The design response seeks to balance the industrial character of Richmond’s former warehouse precincts with a more contemporary residential form.

<img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="abea51cc-d85b-479e-9aef-a589f3b37ca7" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/ground.png?VersionId=e1Kf8EyPWwyiVumtqQ4rM5S4GpOR3CCz" />

Proposed are 63 new dwellings, a wide ranging mix of studio, one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments, and townhouses and duplexes. They will be spread across a part-three, part-eight storey building.

The Planning and Urban Context Report by Tract says the development is of an "exemplary architectural standard" and has been carefully crafted by SJB Architects.

"Dwellings&nbsp;will benefit from excellent access to natural light, cross-ventilation opportunities and extensive communal space," the report noted.

The architectural material highlights the project’s integration of landscaped elements and communal spaces throughout the building. The proposal also incorporates sustainability initiatives aligned with the Victorian Government’s push for higher-performing apartment developments under the fast-track program.

The Great Design Fast Track was unveiled by the Victorian Government in 2024 as part of a broader housing supply strategy aimed at accelerating the delivery of new homes. Projects assessed through the pathway must demonstrate high-quality architecture, sustainability outcomes, and housing diversity while being located close to public transport and existing infrastructure.

<img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="afdbe834-8dc4-4a77-a943-ba07bc927348" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/site_11.png?VersionId=0J657j.TaChAZfp93wqJYBTqSsnREJx2" />

Focus Group, founder and led by Paul De Lutiis, is increasingly active across Melbourne’s inner suburbs, targeting well-connected urban renewal locations suited to medium and higher-density residential development. The Fitzroy proposal continues that strategy, leveraging the area’s strong transport links, established retail amenity, and proximity to the CBD.

Fitzroy has been one of the most popular spots for developers and buyers in recent years. The likes of PACE Development Group, SMA Projects, Crema Group and Chapter Group, currently selling projects in the suburb.

First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Fitzroy apartments

The Gold Coast Planning Committee has supported the preliminary approval for the Benowa Gardens Urban Village project following an extensive community consultation and assessment process.

The proposal will now proceed to a full council vote on June 2.

The application sought approval for a masterplanned urban village on the existing Benowa Gardens Shopping Centre site, combining new housing, retail, dining, health and lifestyle amenities within a walkable, integrated precinct.&nbsp;

The proposed redevelopment includes around 413 apartments integrated above a revitalised mixed-use centre featuring a full-line supermarket of 4,000 sqm, 6,000 sqm of specialty retail and dining space across around 30 retailers, a 7,000 sqm health and wellness precinct, and roughly 9,630 sqm of office and medical suites.&nbsp;

<img alt="$1b Benowa Gardens Urban Village moves to Full Council following Planning Committee support" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fb36ae47-80bc-45f0-9914-31b0c7b6007d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/PR26576%20Ashmore%20Road%20C4%201121%20FI.jpg?VersionId=6mRKk2uU4r67TmTt39DKGUlvFRbTVqWa" />

The broader masterplan also includes very significant traffic and transport improvements, wide pedestrian walkways, upgraded pedestrian and cycle connections, and enhanced public areas designed to create a more connected and walkable community environment.&nbsp;

Centre owner Patrick Lu said the milestone reflected months of detailed planning, technical assessment and ongoing communication with local residents, businesses, schools and stakeholders.

“We appreciate the time, consideration and care Council officers and the Planning Committee have given this proposal throughout the assessment process,” Lu said.

“We also sincerely thank the local community for engaging with us, sharing feedback and participating in the consultation process over many months.

<img alt="$1b Benowa Gardens Urban Village moves to Full Council following Planning Committee support" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="32fd1fc3-d0e6-485f-ac57-9916c9bcb818" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/PR26576%20Ashmore%20Road%20C5%201121%20FI_2.jpg?VersionId=fz8qQKDBLQ7MyFRc856Zccfbh9nFwLOe" />

“We understand projects of this scale bring questions and concerns, which is why we have worked hard to listen carefully, provide information transparently and continue refining elements of the proposal where possible.

“Our vision has always been to create a well-designed, community-focused urban village that responds to the changing needs of the Gold Coast, while delivering improved amenity, housing diversity, healthcare access and local lifestyle benefits.

“This proposal is about creating a genuine live-work-play environment where residents can access everyday services, schools, healthcare, dining, shopping and green space within walking distance, while also supporting local jobs and economic activity.”

<img alt="$1b Benowa Gardens Urban Village moves to Full Council following Planning Committee support" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="50dfbd04-590e-4fc6-983b-766880947867" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Dining%20Day%20Time%20-%20High%20Resolution.jpg?VersionId=BP7ZoKJ0DdL_8iRkkC8VVx99moICV6kg" />

Lu said the proposal had evolved significantly through consultation and technical review, particularly around traffic, pedestrian and student safety and neighbourhood connectivity.&nbsp;

Melissa Griffin, Director at Urbis, said the recommendation recognised the strategic importance of delivering more housing and services within established urban areas already supported by infrastructure.

“This proposal represents the type of thoughtful, integrated growth that planning frameworks across South-East Queensland are encouraging,” Ms Griffin said.

“The project seeks to place housing, retail, healthcare and employment opportunities together in a highly accessible location close to schools, transport and existing services.

“Importantly, the process has involved significant technical assessment and community engagement to ensure local issues and feedback were properly considered throughout the planning pathway.”

$1 billion Benowa Gardens Urban Village heads to council vote following Planning Committee support

Surfers Paradise is officially set for its first new residential development with a 45-storey skybridge connecting the two towers.

John Camilleri’s Celestino Developments has been given the green light by the Gold Coast City Council to develop its major beachfront precinct across its huge 4,000 sqm oceanfront site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/63-79-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">63–79 Garfield Terrace</a>, just five months after its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-exclusive-billionaire-winx-breeder-s-bold-two-tower-surfers-paradise-play-with-45th-storey-skybridge">submission in late 2025</a>.

The approved scheme will deliver two towers rising 55 and 48 storeys, connected by a skybridge positioned on level 45 that will house a range of resident-only wellness and entertainment spaces.

In its notice of approval, the Gold Coast City Council said the&nbsp;proposed overall built form has been designed to complement the scale, intensity and protect the adjacent amenity and surrounding streets through the use of varied setbacks, site cover and architectural elements.

<img alt="First look exclusive: Billionaire Winx breeder’s bold two-tower Surfers Paradise play with 45th-storey skybridge" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-30%20at%209.53.48%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=ADyPJ_TFbJvSU9wZFOiCBnlPtgF7VWqW" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/dbi">DBI</a>, the development will comprise 275 apartments across the two towers, including a mix of two-, three-, and four-bedroom residences, as well as several penthouses. The apartments will sit above a landscaped podium featuring more than 90 metres of beachfront pool frontage, private resident lawns, lounges, and wellness spaces.

DBI said the design draws heavily from the movement and form of the coastal environment, with curving balcony lines and sculpted façades intended to soften the scale of the towers while maximising ocean outlooks and passive shading outcomes.

“The project occupies a rare, uninterrupted oceanfront site and has been shaped by a design philosophy that merges architectural elegance with environmental responsiveness and a carefully curated lifestyle experience,” DBI said in planning documents submitted to the Gold Coast City Council.

The most distinctive element of the approved project is the skybridge linking the two towers at level 45. The elevated communal space is planned to include executive lounges, formal dining areas, wellness facilities, and panoramic ocean-facing outlooks.

“The skybridge enhances the identity of the development, promotes social interaction, and delivers a lifestyle experience not found elsewhere on the Gold Coast,” DBI said.

At podium level, residents will have access to a suite of resort-style amenities, including resident lounges, private dining rooms, a yoga lawn, gymnasium, plunge pools, and treatment spaces. The beachfront pool has been designed with separate lap, lounge, and children’s areas extending across the width of the site.

The project will also introduce new food and beverage offerings along the Enderley Avenue and Oceanway frontages, contributing additional activation to the beachfront precinct.

First look: Winx billionaire’s beachfront Surfers Paradise apartment development greenlit

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

Almost three-quarters of variable borrowers who asked for a rate cut, got one, a new survey has found.&nbsp;

In a RateCity.com.au survey of over 1,000 mortgage holders, of those on a variable rate, 52 per cent haggled with their bank for a lower rate. Over 73 per cent of these people were successful in getting at least one rate cut.

A rate reduction of 0.25 per cent could save the average mortgage holder $1,241 in interest after one year and $3,656 after three years. This is based on a $500,000 loan balance with 25 years remaining.

While the majority of changes to fixed rates in the last two months have been hikes, the opposite is happening in the variable rate market.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=29048 project_image_fid=151675]

RateCity.com.au home loan database analysis:

<ul>
	<li>49 lenders have cut at least one variable rate in the past two months.</li>
	<li>10 lenders have hiked variable rates in that time.</li>
	<li>The vast majority of variable rate cuts are reserved for new customers, not existing ones.</li>
</ul>

RateCity research director, Sally Tindall, said while the RBA is not expected to move the cash rate tomorrow, one phone call could potentially save the average variable rate mortgage holder thousands.

&ldquo;Variable rates are at record lows, however, most of these deals are reserved for new customers, not existing ones, unless you specifically ask,&rdquo; she said.

&ldquo;A lot of people think a handful of basis points won&rsquo;t make much of a difference, but if the discount is permanent, then the savings can potentially run into the thousands in just a few years.&quot;

While the majority of changes to fixed rates in the last two months have been hikes, the opposite is happening in the variable rate market

jordan_55689

Three out of four mortgage holders who asked for a rate cut, got one: RateCity 

EXPERT OBSERVER

This week, the NSW government announced almost A$500 million towards boosting the uptake of electric vehicles. In its new <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/initiative/nsw-governments-electric-vehicle-strategy">electric vehicle strategy</a>, the government will waive stamp duty for cars under $78,000, develop more charging infrastructure, offer rebates to 25,000 drivers, and more.

Given the transport sector is Australia&rsquo;s <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/6686d48f-3f9c-448d-a1b7-7e410fe4f376/files/nggi-quarterly-update-mar-2019.pdf">second-largest polluter</a>, it&rsquo;s a good thing Australian governments are starting to plan for a transition to electric vehicles (EVs).

But transitioning from cities full of petrol-guzzling vehicles to cities full of electric ones won&rsquo;t address all of the environmental and social problems associated with car dependence and mass manufacturing.

So, let&rsquo;s look at these problems in more detail, and why public transport really is the best way forward.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7633 project_image_fid=32168]

<h2>Mounting disadvantage and health issues</h2>

EVs do have environmental advantages over conventional vehicles. In particular, they generate less carbon emissions during their lifetime. Of course, much of the emissions reductions will depend on how much electricity <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-the-environmental-footprint-of-electric-versus-fossil-cars-124762">comes from renewable sources</a>.

But carbon emissions are only one of the many problems associated with the dominance of private cars as a form of mobility in cities.

Let&rsquo;s start with a few of the social issues. This includes the huge amount of <a href="https://apo.org.au/sites/default/files/resource-files/2013-11/apo-nid59916.pdf">space devoted to car driving</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2016.10.044">parking</a> in our neighbourhoods. This can <a href="https://theconversation.com/reclaiming-the-streets-we-all-can-have-a-say-in-the-new-normal-after-coronavirus-137703">crowd out other forms of land use</a>, including other more sustainable forms of mobility such as walking and cycling.

There are the financial and mental health costs of <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-city-workers-average-commute-has-blown-out-to-66-minutes-a-day-how-does-yours-compare-120598">congestion</a>, as well, with Australian city workers spending, on average, 66 minutes getting to and from work each day. <a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/statistics/safety">Injuries and fatalities on roads</a> are also increasing, and <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11524-009-9433-9">inactivity and isolation</a> associated with driving can impact our physical health.

Car-dependent cities also contribute to <a href="https://trid.trb.org/view/1154961">disadvantage for people who don&rsquo;t have access to cars</a>, and uneven <a href="https://apo.org.au/node/449">financial vulnerability</a> associated with the high costs of car ownership and use.

Indeed, some of these problems could be made worse &mdash; for instance, subsidies for EVs could end up favouring wealthier people who can afford new cars.

<h2>Mining for resources</h2>

A mass global uptake of EVs will generate major environmental problems, too. Most concerning of these is the use of finite mineral resources required for their construction, and the environmental and labour conditions of their extraction.

This was recently highlighted in a <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions">recent report by the International Energy Agency</a>. As the agency&rsquo;s executive director Fatih Birol said, there&rsquo;s a

<blockquote>
looming mismatch between the world&rsquo;s strengthened climate ambitions and the availability of critical minerals that are essential to realising those ambitions.
</blockquote>

Minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel and copper are key ingredients required to make EVs.

As the report noted, EVs use double the amount of copper than conventional vehicles. EVs also require considerable amounts of lithium, cobalt and graphite that are hardly required at all for conventional vehicles. And it expects demand for lithium to grow 40-fold between 2020 and 2040, driven by EV production to meet climate targets.

<figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408077/original/file-20210624-13-12t8z1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408077/original/file-20210624-13-12t8z1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408077/original/file-20210624-13-12t8z1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=400&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408077/original/file-20210624-13-12t8z1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=400&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408077/original/file-20210624-13-12t8z1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=400&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408077/original/file-20210624-13-12t8z1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=503&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408077/original/file-20210624-13-12t8z1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=503&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408077/original/file-20210624-13-12t8z1b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=503&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" /></a>

<figcaption>There are better ways to cut transport emissions than greater uptake of electric vehicles. Shutterstock</figcaption>
</figure>

There is <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/speed-of-green-energy-shift-triggers-supply-alarm-20210506-p57pi5">considerable discussion</a> of Australia&rsquo;s natural advantage as a supplier of some of these minerals, as we have large reserves of lithium and rare-earth metals beneath parts of the continent.

But before governments and mining bodies rush to exploit these reserves, they need to ensure much more is done to avoid the injustices perpetrated against Traditional Owners and their lands and heritage. The recent appalling <a href="https://theconversation.com/rio-tinto-just-blasted-away-an-ancient-aboriginal-site-heres-why-that-was-allowed-139466">destruction at Juukan Gorge</a> by Rio Tinto&rsquo;s iron ore operation is just one example of this.

<a href="https://theconversation.com/critical-minerals-are-vital-for-renewable-energy-we-must-learn-to-mine-them-responsibly-131547">Mining also has its own environmental problems</a>, such as land clearing and associated biodiversity loss, the pollution and contaminants it produces, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/arent-we-in-a-drought-the-australian-black-coal-industry-uses-enough-water-for-over-5-million-people-137591">intensive water use</a>.

The conditions of extracting these critical minerals in other parts of the world are dire. There&rsquo;s the oppressive working conditions <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/dec/18/how-the-race-for-cobalt-risks-turning-it-from-miracle-metal-to-deadly-chemical">in cobalt mining in the Democratic Republic of the Congo</a>, the conflict over <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/14/electric-cost-lithium-mining-decarbonasation-salt-flats-chile">Indigenous rights in Chile&rsquo;s lithium mining areas</a>, and environmental destruction associated with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/gallery/2015/apr/15/rare-earthenware-a-journey-to-the-toxic-source-of-luxury-goods">mining rare earth minerals in China</a>.

<figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408075/original/file-20210624-21-1nlr7vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="Lithium mine with brine pools" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408075/original/file-20210624-21-1nlr7vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408075/original/file-20210624-21-1nlr7vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=450&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408075/original/file-20210624-21-1nlr7vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=450&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408075/original/file-20210624-21-1nlr7vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=450&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408075/original/file-20210624-21-1nlr7vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=565&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408075/original/file-20210624-21-1nlr7vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=565&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408075/original/file-20210624-21-1nlr7vh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=565&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" /></a>

<figcaption>Mining for rare-earth metals such as lithium comes with enormous environmental impacts. Shutterstock</figcaption>
</figure>

<h2>Broadening ideas about transport</h2>

To focus on these problems is not to suggest the new policies on electric vehicles are unimportant, or that they don&rsquo;t stand to have some positive environmental impact.

The point is private EVs are not a solution to the combined challenges of reducing our urban environmental footprints and making better cities for all, and that they have their own problems.

Instead, we should develop a good mass public transport system with extensive and frequent coverage. Alongside urban development with a more even distribution of jobs, services and opportunities, investing in better public transport could reduce car dependence in our cities.

This would have a range of environmental and social benefits: making more space available for people instead of machines, extending the benefits of mobility to people who can&rsquo;t or don&rsquo;t drive, and reducing demand for finite minerals.

Even fossil-fuelled public transport has fewer emissions than conventional car travel. Data from the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter8.pdf">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a> shows the most fuel-efficient buses and trains generate less than half the carbon emissions per passenger kilometre of fuel-efficient cars. Of course, public transport powered by renewables will be even better.

<figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408072/original/file-20210624-15-1chlrge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="Trams on Swanston Street" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408072/original/file-20210624-15-1chlrge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408072/original/file-20210624-15-1chlrge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=450&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408072/original/file-20210624-15-1chlrge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=450&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408072/original/file-20210624-15-1chlrge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=450&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408072/original/file-20210624-15-1chlrge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=566&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408072/original/file-20210624-15-1chlrge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=566&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408072/original/file-20210624-15-1chlrge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=566&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" /></a>

<figcaption>Melbourne&rsquo;s tram network is the biggest in the world. Shutterstock</figcaption>
</figure>

But as things stand, we are far from having such a city. The benefits of good public transport and public services are <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1068/a140008g">unevenly distributed across our cities</a>.

In Sydney, for example, there are significant investments in new public transport infrastructure in some parts of the city, such as <a href="https://www.sydneymetro.info/west/project-overview">Metro West</a> and the recently completed North West Metro. There are <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/entire-nsw-rail-network-to-go-green-by-2025-smaller-ferries-to-go-electric-20210610-p58013.html">welcome commitments to reduce emissions</a> in that sector, too.

But we&rsquo;re a long way from planning new developments and redevelopments to make public transport a viable alternative to cars. The <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-18/western-sydney-urban-sprawl-lesson-for-other-australian-cities/100072140">lack of public transport infrastructure in newly constructed, master-planned</a> estates on Sydney&rsquo;s urban fringe is the most glaring example.

Ultimately, it&rsquo;s important that a transition to electric vehicles doesn&rsquo;t dominate the discussion we need to have about urban transport.

Our challenge is to simultaneously reduce the carbon footprint of different forms of transport, while also thinking much more broadly about the sustainability and justice of the system of mobility that&rsquo;s so central to daily life in our cities.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/163247/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" width="1" />

&nbsp;

This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/cramming-cities-full-of-electric-vehicles-means-were-still-depending-on-cars-and-thats-a-huge-problem-163247">original article</a>.

This week, the NSW government announced almost A$500 million towards boosting the uptake of electric vehicles

max.kwok_55688

Cramming cities full of electric vehicles means we’re still depending on cars — and that’s a huge problem

The Commonwealth Bank&rsquo;s head of Australian economics, Gareth Aird has forecast the RBA will lift cash rate in 2022, about two years earlier than the central bank has itself suggested.

&ldquo;Our central scenario has the RBA delivering the first hike in the cash rate in November 2022,&rdquo; Aird advised in a note to clients.

&ldquo;We have pencilled in an increase of 15 basis points, which would take the cash rate to 0.25 per cent.

&ldquo;We expect that to be followed by an increase of 25 basis points in December 2022.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5490 project_image_fid=78492]

&quot;We have three further 25-basis-point hikes in Q1 23, Q2 23 and Q3 23 [the first, second and third quarters of 2023].&rdquo;

It would take the cash rate to 1.25 per cent, where it was in June 2019.

But it depends on fiscal policy remaining expansionary and the border opening to immigrants in mid-2022, Aird added.

Variable mortgage rates after a 1.15-percentage-point rise would move from 3.1 percent to 4.25 per cent for owner occupiers and from 3.44 to 4.59 per cent for investors.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=97810 project_image_fid=160635]

On a $500,000 mortgage it would result in a $324 per month increase in repayments.

Aird is the latest economist to bring forward their timing forecast as ANZ&#39;s economists recently advised their forecast was for the first rate rise to come in late 2023.

Westpac shifted its first rate rise forecast to March 2023 after the recent job numbers.

The Commonwealth Bank’s head of Australian economics, Gareth Aird forecasts the cash rate will take place within 18 months

jchancellor

CBA forecast RBA will lift cash rate in late 2022 

McGrath Estate Agents has entered into a referral agreement with Newground Capital Partners.

The alliance expects to broaden its sales capability across its apartment projects business, McGrath chief Eddie Law said.

ICG-Newground is a company headed by London listed alternative asset manager Intermediate Capital Group (&ldquo;ICG&rdquo;).

Law said McGrath was often the first point of contact for developers to determine site availability and market sentiment and to formulate product type, format and price.

&ldquo;The intent is to leverage of our proven core capabilities of agency project marketing, property management and buyer mortgage provision, by acting as a conduit to the delivery of development capital, to assist the developer both acquire and develop the site.&quot;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7758 project_image_fid=150461]

He said McGrath want to be a &ldquo;one stop shop&rdquo; to deliver capital, agency and management services on a market competitive basis with ICG-Newground having an entrepreneurial approach to doing business not necessarily seen by traditional banking institutions.&nbsp;

&quot;We are already engaging and quoting actively on several residential property development opportunities in both Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane.&quot;

Daniel Erez, head of real estate Australia &amp; New Zealand for ICG-Newground said in a strong residential market, developers need to act quickly and decisively knowing that their financier can move with them.&nbsp;

ICG Plc, which manages $74.5 billion in private debt, credit, and equity, will launched a new real estate credit fund targeting a $1 billion raise.

McGrath Estate Agents has entered into a referral agreement with Newground Capital Partners

McGrath and ICG-Newground form alliance to boost finance access for development projects

EXPERT OBSERVER

The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data shows that new lending in South Australia is at record levels as South Australian Senators look set to be the vital votes to save safe lending laws.

Home lending is booming in South Australia. We haven&rsquo;t seen such startling levels of lending since records began in 2003.

The ABS figures show:&nbsp;

- Lending for new South Australian owner-occupier loans is at the highest level since records began in 2003. Lending for new homes is 41% higher than in April 2020.

- Lending for South Australian first home buyers in April 2021 is 48% higher than April 2020.

- New lending for investor housing has increased 41% since April 2020.

<img alt="" height="1026" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2021-06-10_at_1.22.43_pm.png" width="1358" />

The general signs of economic recovery mask the strong risks for borrowers in a booming housing market.

The state faces the perfect storm of rising levels of household debt, ultra-cheap credit, flatlining wages, hidden underemployment and key government support tapering off.

Housing unaffordability is also reaching a crisis point in South Australia. Median house prices in Adelaide have ticked over half a million dollars. Families are having to take on increasingly larger debts to simply enter the market.&nbsp;&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6082 project_image_fid=37154]

The ABS data comes as the government struggles to garner enough support in the Senate to axe safe lending laws.

The laws were put in place in 2009 after the Global Financial Crisis to prevent reckless lending observed in the lead up and during the crisis.

The legislation has been slammed by key crossbench Senators, including Senator Jacqui Lambie and Senator Pauline Hanson.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=9286 project_image_fid=82295]

Safe lending laws are a critical consumer protection to ensure that banks do not lend recklessly to Australians.

Now more than ever, when credit is cheap and home lending is booming, we need strong safe lending laws to ensure banks don&#39;t sell people into loans they won&rsquo;t be able to afford down the track.

The Banking Royal Commission heard shocking stories of banks lending money to people who the lender knew would never be able to repay the loan, including people with disabilities, pensioners, and problem gamblers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=22077 project_image_fid=72525]

If safe lending laws are axed, there won&rsquo;t be any penalties for this kind of behaviour. Banks won&rsquo;t be fined, and they won&rsquo;t have to pay compensation.

Rebekha Sharkie from Centre Alliance spoke out against the government&rsquo;s changes in the lower house, and independent Senator Rex Patrick has expressed strong concerns.

We encourage Senators Stirling Griff and Rex Patrick to continue to stand up to the banks and government, and vote down the government&rsquo;s changes when they hit the Senate.

People need protection from unsafe lending, as Senate vote imminent

Home lending in SA at record levels: CHOICE

EXPERT INSIGHT

So you think it&rsquo;s the right time to dive in and buy a home.

I can&rsquo;t tell you you&rsquo;re wrong. I can tell you it would have been better to do it before prices began soaring, and that if they keep soaring it will get worse still.

When the year began, the typical Sydney price was <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/corelogic-december-home-value-indices">$872,000</a>. Five months later at the start of June it is <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/australias-housing-boom-rolls-national-home-values-lifting-another-22-may">$970,000</a>.

That&rsquo;s a jump of almost $100,000 in a matter of months &mdash; an awfully big price for procrastinating.

In Melbourne the typical price has climbed from $682,000 to $740,500. In Perth it has climbed from $471,000 to $521,500, and so on.

And banks are beginning to withdraw the cheapest of their still-very-cheap mortgage rates, at this stage mainly the fixed four-year rates which had been below <a href="https://www.domain.com.au/news/house-hunters-facing-rising-fixed-mortgage-rates-with-further-hikes-expected-1054965/">2%</a>.

So why on earth wouldn&rsquo;t you dive in, cut your living expenses to the bare minimum and try and buy a home while it&rsquo;s the least bit possible?

One (slight) reason to relax is mortgage rates. Despite the increases in fixed four-year rates, three-year rates have barely moved. That&rsquo;s because the Reserve Bank has promised to hold the three-year bond rate <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2021/mr-21-09.html">constant</a> at 0.1%.

Buying has become a bigger commitment

The three-year bond rate determines the cost to banks of their three-year fixed rate mortgages.

The Reserve Bank has said it does not expect to lift its 0.1% cash rate until &ldquo;2024 at the earliest&rdquo;. Movements in the cash rate determine movements in variable mortgage rates.

But there is another reason for proceeding with caution and taking stock.

For our parents, buying a home was an exceptionally good deal, not only because homes were cheaper &mdash; until the end of the 1990s homes typically cost between two and three times household after-tax income, they now cost closer to five &mdash; but also because over time the loan became easier to pay off.

That isn&rsquo;t because mortgage rates were coming down &mdash; at times they were going up &mdash; it&rsquo;s because during our parents&rsquo; times wages (and prices) were climbing.

It meant that even if someone of our parents&rsquo; generation just squeaked through one of the bank&rsquo;s tests about their ability to make payments on a mortgage, a few years and lots of inflation and several big wage rises down the track those mortgage payments shrank compared to everything else.

Once, wage rises took care of repayments

Many of our parents paid off their mortgages early.

One way to look at this is that the bank&rsquo;s ability-to-repay calculators were set too harshly. They failed to account for future hefty wage rises and inflation.

It&rsquo;s probably also true that they were set more generously than they might have been in an implicit acknowledgement of what the assistant governor in charge of the Reserve Bank&rsquo;s economic branch Luci Ellis calls &ldquo;<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2006/2006-12/global-trends.html">mortgage tilt</a>&rdquo;.

The former governor, Glenn Stevens, used another term, &ldquo;<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/1997/sp-ag-081097.html">front-end loading</a>&rdquo;.

Mortgages were &lsquo;front-end loaded&rsquo;

When inflation was high, and as a consequence interest rates were high, wages that climbed rapidly with high inflation made the servicing burden &ldquo;most acute in the very early phase of a loan, falling over time&rdquo;.

On a graph (and the former governor presented a graph) the line showing payments as a portion of income tilts down over time.

In a world of lower inflation and interest rates, the tilt becomes flatter.

By now (Stevens published the graph in 1997) the line must be near horizontal.

If wage growth remains near the <a href="https://twitter.com/1petermartin/status/1399520798734389250/photo/1">record lows</a> the treasury is forecasting it will become scarcely any easier to make payments on a home loan over time.

Yet the banks are still handing out loans using the sort of formulas they used to.

If you get a loan you&rsquo;ll be assessed as being able to (just) make the payments as always, but you&rsquo;ll be denied the near certainty of being able to more easily meet the payments as time goes on.

Now, we retire mortgaged

This is a different from the risk you&rsquo;ll also run of today&rsquo;s ultra-low mortgage rates climbing (which banks do take into account in deciding whether to give you a loan).

The proportion of homeowners reaching retirement age while still paying off their mortgage has doubled in 20 years. Which might be why some banks ask for details of your super before granting you a loan. It isn&rsquo;t an idle inquiry.

Might things get better? Maybe, if we can get wages moving again.

Evidence given to Tuesday&rsquo;s post-budget Senate estimate hearing provides cause for hope, and despair.

Super hikes will make things worse

The budget forecasts for wage growth over the next four financial years are incredibly low &mdash; 1.5%, 2.25%, 2.5% and 2.75%

On Tuesday Treasury Secretary Steven Kennedy revealed that each would have been higher &mdash; 0.4 points higher &mdash; had the government not persisted with the five scheduled annual increases in compulsory superannuation contributions of 0.5% of salary starting in July.

The treasury believes each increase will slice 0.4 percentage points from wage growth, on the basis that employers, who are legally required to pay the contributions, will have to find the money somewhere.

It&rsquo;s the same conclusion reached by the government&rsquo;s <a href="https://theconversation.com/that-extra-youre-about-to-get-in-super-most-of-it-will-come-from-you-but-dont-expect-the-ads-to-tell-you-that-154723">retirement incomes review</a>.

It&rsquo;s cause for hope because it means that when those five increases stop (in mid-2026, or sooner if the government stops them mid-track) wages might be able to grow more strongly.

It&rsquo;s cause for despair because if the treasury is right, we are denying ourselves wage rises we could use in return for super we will increasingly use to pay down our mortgages.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/161873/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" width="1" z5zyoz6tp="" />

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-martin-682709">Peter Martin</a>, Visiting Fellow, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/crawford-school-of-public-policy-australian-national-university-3292">Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University</a>

This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/paying-off-a-home-loan-used-to-be-easier-than-it-looked-its-now-harder-heres-why-161873">original article</a>.

Paying off a home loan used to be easier than it looked - it's now harder - here's why

Heritage Bank has announced cuts to mortgage rates for investors.
 
Heritage has reduced both variable and fixed term interest rates for investors from today June 3.
 
There is a 2.39% rate on Heritage’s 1, 2 and 3-year investor fixed rate principal and interest product for borrowers with a loan to value ratio (LVR) equal to or less than 90%. 

It reflected a reduction of up to 0.40% Heritage Bank CEO Peter Lock sai.

“As a mutual, our aim is always to provide the best possible rates we can for our borrowers and these out-of-cycle cuts demonstrate that.
 
“Current conditions mean that we’re in a position to reduce rates for borrowers."
 
Heritage also offers an interest rate of 2.49% on 1, 2 and 3-year investor Fixed Rate interest-only loans, for borrowers with an LVR equal to or less than 90%. 

It reflected a 0.50% cut on the 1-year interest-only fixed rate.
 
Other interest rate cuts for investors include 0.10% reductions on Home Advantage Variable for borrowers of $250,000 to $699,999 with an LVR of equal to or less than 80%.

The last four-year fixed home loan rate under 2 per cent has ended the cheaper longer-term fixed rates in Australia.

At the start of the year RateCity noted there were 32 four-year fixed rates under 2 per cent, including from three of the big four banks.

BankVic was the last lender to hold out, however, on June 1, 2021 their rate rose from 1.95 per cent to 2.29 per cent.

Heritage don't offer four year lows, with their 5 year fixed at 2.89%.

Earlier this year the Queensland-based Heritage Bank announced it would open two new branches in New South Wales - at Macquarie Park in north-west Sydney, and one at Tweed Heads. 
 
Heritage opened new branches at Castle Hill and Parramatta in 2019 to kick-start an interstate expansion program, initially targeting Sydney and then looking to Melbourne. 
 
Lock said the Castle Hill and Parramatta branches had together attracted a significant number of new members, $30 million in mortgage lending and more than $100 million in deposits in their first year, even though COVID struck soon after opening.
 
The Macquarie Park Branch is due to open in September and the Tweed Heads Branch in October this year.

Heritage Bank has been chaired by Kerry Betros since 2012, a year after Heritage become a bank in 2011.



Heritage has reduced variable and fixed term interest rates for investors across many of its mortgage products from June 3 

Out of cycle fixed and variable investor loan rate cuts at Heritage Bank

The RBA have held interest rates at a record low 0.1 per cent at the June meeting.

RBA Governor Philip Lowe noted in his meeting statement the increased borrowing by investors in the housing market.

&quot;Housing markets have strengthened further, with prices rising in all major markets. Housing credit growth has picked up, with strong demand from owner-occupiers, especially first-home buyers,&quot; Dr Lowe said.

&quot;There has also been increased borrowing by investors.

&quot;Given the environment of rising housing prices and low interest rates, the Bank will be monitoring trends in housing borrowing carefully and it is important that lending standards are maintained.

Finder&#39;s RBA Cash Rate Survey found that over three quarters of experts surveyed believe the cash rate won&#39;t rise until Q4 2022 or later.

Around 60 per cent of experts expect the cash rate to increase in 2023 or later.&nbsp; Just under 10 per cent believe the cash rate could increase before the end of 2021.

AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver said that while the economic recovery is faster than expected, the RBA&rsquo;s conditions for a rate hike are still far from being met.

&quot;The jobs market is still a long way from full employment, wages growth at 1.5% is way below the 3% plus pace necessary to sustain two to three per cent&nbsp;inflation and in any case inflation is still well below its target zone. So a rate hike remains some time off.&quot;

Despite market sentiment, and the RBA&#39;s steadfast view rates won&#39;t move until 2024, banks across Australia have been hiking their four-year fixed home loan rates.

According to Ratecity, at the start of the year&nbsp;were 32 four-year fixed rates under two&nbsp;per cent, including from three of the big four banks. Following BankVic&#39;s recent hike, there now isn&#39;t a single lender offering under two per cent for a four year fixed.

RateCity.com.au research director, Sally Tindall, said the pack was tightening as some lenders took some record low rates off the table, while others trimmed rates to become more competitive.

&ldquo;A number of record low rates have been relegated to the history books over the last two months, as lenders took some of the lowest rates off the table,&rdquo; Tindall&nbsp;said.

&ldquo;There are now just two rates that are still at record lows &ndash; Reduce Home Loan&rsquo;s variable rate at 1.77 per cent and BCU&rsquo;s 1-year fixed rate at 1.67 per cent. All the other lowest rates have been hiked.

&ldquo;We expect more fixed rates will rise after the RBA&rsquo;s term funding facility wraps up at the end of this month and we edge closer to the next cash rate hike.&quot;

Finder's RBA Cash Rate Survey found that over three quarters of experts surveyed believe the cash rate won't rise until Q4 2022 or later

RBA holds rates at June meeting

RBA Governor Philip Lowe&#39;s meeting statement

At its meeting today, the Board decided to maintain the current policy settings, including: the targets of 10&nbsp;basis points for the cash rate and the yield on the 3-year Australian Government bond; the parameters of the government bond purchase program; and the rate of zero per&nbsp;cent on Exchange Settlement balances.

The global economy is continuing to recover from the pandemic and the outlook is for strong growth this year and next. The recovery remains uneven, though, and some countries are yet to contain the virus. Global trade in goods has picked up strongly and commodity prices are mostly higher than at the start of the year. However, inflation in underlying terms remains low and below central bank targets.

Sovereign bond yields have been steady recently after increasing earlier in the year due to the positive news on vaccines and the additional fiscal stimulus in the United States. Medium-term inflation expectations have lifted from near record lows to be closer to central banks&#39; targets. The 3-year government bond yield in Australia is consistent with the Board&#39;s target and lending rates for most borrowers are at record lows. The Australian dollar remains in the upper end of the range of recent years.

The economic recovery in Australia is stronger than earlier expected and is forecast to continue. The Bank&#39;s central scenario is for GDP to grow by 4&frac34;&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent over this year and 3&frac12;&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent over 2022. This outlook is supported by fiscal measures and very accommodative financial conditions. An important ongoing source of uncertainty is the possibility of significant outbreaks of the virus, although this should diminish as more of the population is vaccinated.

Progress in reducing unemployment has been faster than expected, with the unemployment rate declining to 5.5&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent in April. Job vacancies are at a high level and a further decline in the unemployment rate to around 5&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent is expected by the end of this year. There are reports of labour shortages in some parts of the economy.

Despite the strong recovery in the economy and jobs, inflation and wage pressures are subdued. While a pick-up in inflation and wages growth is expected, it is likely to be only gradual and modest. In the central scenario, inflation in underlying terms is expected to be 1&frac12;&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent in 2021 and 2&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent in mid&nbsp;2023. In the short term, CPI inflation is expected to rise temporarily to be above 3&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent in the June quarter because of the reversal of some&nbsp;COVID-19-related price reductions.

Housing markets have strengthened further, with prices rising in all major markets. Housing credit growth has picked up, with strong demand from owner-occupiers, especially first-home buyers. There has also been increased borrowing by investors. Given the environment of rising housing prices and low interest rates, the Bank will be monitoring trends in housing borrowing carefully and it is important that lending standards are maintained.

As foreshadowed last month, at its July meeting the Board will consider whether to retain the April 2024 bond as the target bond for the 3-year yield target or to shift to the next maturity, the November 2024 bond. The Board is not considering a change to the target of 10&nbsp;basis points. At the July meeting the Board will also consider future bond purchases following the completion of the second $100&nbsp;billion of purchases under the government bond purchase program in September. The Board continues to place a high priority on a return to full employment.

The date for final drawings under the Term Funding Facility is 30&nbsp;June 2021. So far, authorised deposit-taking institutions have drawn $134&nbsp;billion under this facility and a further $75&nbsp;billion is available. The facility is providing low-cost fixed-rate funding for 3&nbsp;years and so will continue to support low borrowing costs until mid&nbsp;2024.

The Board is committed to maintaining highly supportive monetary conditions to support a return to full employment in Australia and inflation consistent with the target. It will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2&nbsp;to 3&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent target range. For this to occur, the labour market will need to be tight enough to generate wages growth that is materially higher than it is currently. This is unlikely to be until 2024 at the earliest.

The RBA kept the official cash rate at record lows at its June meeting



RBA hold rates, cite increase borrowing from investors: RBA Governor Philip Lowe's June 2021 meeting statement

Australia's 30 plus days mortgage arrears in 1Q21 were up by only 4bp to 1.05 percent on the previous quarter, with Fitch Ratings expecting a bigger rise in the current quarter, after the payment deferral period ended on 31 March.

Fitch's Dinkum RMBS Index tracks arrears and performance of mortgages underlying public Australian prime RMBS.

The update advised RMBS transactions losses from the sale of collateral property were the lowest since the 2007-08 global financial crisis, with lenders' mortgage insurance payments and excess spread being sufficient to cover principal shortfalls in all transactions. 

Fitch expects losses to stay low due to a recovering economy and strong home-price growth. 

However Fitch Ratings expects the Dinkum RMBS Index to rise in the next quarter, as the payment deferral period ended on 31 March 2021 and government pandemic-related support measures, such as JobKeeper, have been rolled back.

"The recovery in home prices remained strong, with Australia's eight capital cities recording the highest quarterly increase in more than a decade of 5.6%," it noted.

Prices were up by 4.8% yoy, as all capital cities registered positive growth, some at double-digits. 

Fitch expects prices to continue to increase, supported by record-low mortgage rates, a recovering economy and government incentives for housing, particularly for first-home buyers.



Australia's 30+ days mortgage arrears in 1Q21 were up by only 4bp to 1.05% from the previous quarter

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