Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.

The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.

The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.

The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" />

SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.

“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.

The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.

“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" />

The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.

Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.

The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.

COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" />

“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.

The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.

The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.

Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a>

Joel Robinson

First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.

The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.

The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.

SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”

The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" />

The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.

A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.

Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" />

The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.

Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.

The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.

First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;

Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;

The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;

The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;

Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;

Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;

“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;

“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."

Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;

"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;

Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

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The arrival of the first piling rig officially marks the commencement of construction at SIERA’s new beachside apartment development, Exhale, in Northcliffe.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/exhale-surfers-paradise-8-enderley-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Exhale</a>, a glass-encased tower featuring 54 large-scale apartments at 8 Enderley Avenue, is SIERA’s third Gold Coast development. It follows the recently completed PIPIS Bilinga beachfront project, which achieved suburb-record prices, and the soon-to-be-completed Chevron Island development, Tapestry.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359603]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/siera">SIERA</a> Founder and Managing Director Brent Thompson said the arrival of the piling rig represented a significant milestone for the development, which is scheduled for completion in late 2028.

Over the next month, around 260 piles are expected to be installed as work progresses on the basement structure. The building is anticipated to rise above ground level early next year, before unveiling its sculptural glass curtain wall, developed in collaboration with specialist façade engineers.

“The façade was designed to maximise panoramic coastal views while creating a distinctive architectural identity,” Thompson said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=355935]

Designed by BDA Architecture, Exhale will comprise just 54 two- and three-bedroom residences across 26 levels, a level of low-density living rarely delivered in this beachside pocket between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach.

The project has been conceived as a resident-only building, with no short-stay accommodation permitted. SIERA says the model is intended to appeal to long-term owner-occupiers rather than transient holiday demand.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=361052]

Residences have been designed with large-format layouts and expansive glazing, with most apartments featuring more than 30 metres of glass frontage to maximise natural light and ocean views.

The amenity offering spans two levels and centres on wellness and lifestyle, including a heated magnesium pool, sauna, yoga and Pilates studio, gymnasium, private dining facilities, cinema lounge, and dedicated surfcraft storage.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359607]

More than half of the apartments have already sold. SIERA has also opened a sales gallery for Exhale at its Chevron Island commercial premises, near its Tapestry tower and the site of its second Chevron Island apartment development, which is slated to launch in early 2027.
</section>
</section>

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112661]

SIERA kicks off construction at Northcliffe tower Exhale

Local Little Bay residents, along with buyers from premium postcodes across Sydney’s affluent Eastern Suburbs, have dominated purchases in developer-builder Urban Property Group’s first Eastern Suburbs apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/este-little-bay-jennifer-street-little-bay-nsw-2036">ESTE Little Bay</a>.

The $250 million coastal project, one of the first new developments in the area in several years, has proven particularly popular with downsizers, especially those from Coogee and Bondi. One Double Bay downsizer paid $4.7 million for a four-bedroom penthouse, setting a new local apartment price record in the process.

Buyers have been attracted to the combination of coastal tranquillity, premium design and amenity-rich neighbourhood living. The walkable village setting, along with proximity to three of Sydney’s leading golf courses, New South Wales Golf Club, St Michael’s Golf Club and The Coast Golf Club, has also been a key drawcard.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352689]

Built across two low-rise buildings designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hill-thalis-architecture-urban-projects-pty-ltd">Hill Thalis</a> and set along a lush, landscaped green spine, designed by leading landscape architect <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/arcadia-landscape-architecture">Arcadia</a>, ESTE Little Bay offers a collection of one, two, three and four-bedroom residences with interiors by Richards Stanisich.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> Sales Director, Tom McIvor said the response to ESTE has been "nothing short of extraordinary."

“Buyers have been quick to recognise ESTE as a rare opportunity to invest in a coastal sanctuary that offers both seclusion and connectivity to the heart of Sydney,” McIvor said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352687]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/srm-residential">SRM Residential</a> Senior Director, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/srm-residential">Clayton Ross</a> said the local market has responded incredibly well, driven by ESTE’s exceptional location and the rarity it offers.

“We’ve seen strong interest from a variety of buyer groups, all of whom are drawn to the exclusivity and quality of the build and construction by the 4.5-star iCIRT-rated builder / developer, Urban Property Group. There’s truly nothing else like it along Sydney’s coastline.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352690]

The project also includes robust buyer protections, including Resilience Insurance’s Latent Defects Insurance, providing 10 years of structural cover, and an independent iCIRT-rating of the developer.

“The iCIRT-rating adds another layer of confidence,” Ross added. “Buyers see it as a safeguard for their investment and their lifestyle.” A highlight of ESTE’s offering is its exclusive wellness amenities, including a heated rooftop infinity pool and outdoor heated spa, a state-of-the-art Technogym fitness centre, and a sauna.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/este-little-bay-jennifer-street-little-bay-nsw-2036">ESTE Little Bay</a> is topped out and is on track to complete towards the end of 2026, with residents moving in before Christmas.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112343]

Eastern Suburbs buyers snap up ESTE Little Bay apartments

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

<html><body>
RBA governor Glenn Stevens has released a statement concerning the RBA's decision to keep the cash rate on hold today.
"At its meeting today, the board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3%," Stevens wrote.
"Global growth is forecast to be a little below average for a time, but the downside risks appear to have abated, for the moment at least. The United States has so far avoided a severe fiscal contraction and financial strains in Europe have lessened considerably over recent months. Growth in China has stabilised at a fairly robust pace. Around Asia generally, growth was dampened by the earlier slowing in China and the weakness in Europe, but again there are signs recently of stabilisation. Some commodity prices have firmed over recent months.
"Sentiment in financial markets has continued to improve, with risk spreads narrowing and funding conditions for financial institutions becoming more favourable. Long-term interest rates faced by highly rated sovereigns, including Australia, remain at exceptionally low levels. Borrowing conditions for large corporations are very attractive. Share prices have made further gains. However, the task of putting private and public finances on sustainable paths in several major countries is far from complete and, accordingly, financial markets remain vulnerable to setbacks in these areas.
"In Australia, most indicators available for this meeting suggest that growth was close to trend in 2012, led by very large increases in capital spending in the resources sector, while some other sectors experienced weaker conditions. Looking ahead, the peak in resource investment is approaching. As it does, there will be more scope for some other areas of demand to strengthen," says Stevens.
"Present indications are that moderate growth in private consumption spending is occurring, though a return to the very strong growth of some years ago is unlikely. The near-term outlook for non-residential building investment, and investment generally outside the resources sector, remains relatively subdued. Public spending is forecast to be constrained. On the other hand, there are indications of a prospective improvement in dwelling investment, with dwelling prices moving higher, rental yields increasing and building approvals higher than a year ago. Exports of natural resources have been strengthening, though recent bad weather is affecting some shipments.
"Inflation is consistent with the medium-term target, with both headline CPI and underlying measures at around 2¼ per cent on the latest reading. Looking ahead, with the labour market softening somewhat and unemployment edging higher, conditions are working to contain pressure on labour costs. Moreover, businesses are likely to be focusing on lifting efficiency under conditions of moderate demand growth. These trends should help to keep inflation low, even as the effects on prices of the earlier exchange rate appreciation wane. The bank's assessment remains that inflation will be consistent with the target over the next one to two years.
"During 2012, there was a significant easing in monetary policy. Though the full impact of this will still take further time to become apparent, there are signs that the easier conditions are having some of the expected effects: the demand for some categories of consumer durables has picked up; housing prices have moved higher; there are early indications of a pick-up in dwelling construction; and savers are starting to shift portfolios towards assets offering higher expected returns. On the other hand, the exchange rate remains higher than might have been expected, given the observed decline in export prices, and the demand for credit is low, as some households and firms continue to seek lower debt levels," says the statement.
"The board's view is that with inflation likely to be consistent with the target, and with growth likely to be a little below trend over the coming year, an accommodative stance of monetary policy is appropriate. The inflation outlook, as assessed at present, would afford scope to ease policy further, should that be necessary to support demand. At today's meeting, taking into account the flow of recent information and noting that there had been a substantial easing of policy as a result of previous decisions, the board judged that it was prudent to leave the cash rate unchanged. The board will continue to assess the outlook and adjust policy as needed to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the target over time."
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po-LsXgBTHBmX

Housing prices have moved higher: RBA governor's statement

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The Reserve Bank has, as expected, left the cash rate unchanged at 3% today following its February monetary policy meeting.
A poll of 28 economists carried out by <a target="_blank" href="/news">Bloomberg last week</a> found that 24 expected the RBA to leave the cash rate unchanged today.
Preliminary figures released by ABS today revealed that capital city house prices increased by 1.6% over the December quarter, following a revised 0.1% fall over the September quarter, indicating that previous rate cuts may be starting to have an impact on the housing market.
Commenting on the decision, RP Data national research director Tim Lawless said the RBA was likely to be "reasonably satisfied with how the housing market has played out since they embarked on the rate cutting cycle back in November 2011".  
"Since that time dwelling values across the combined capital cities of Australia have increased by 0.8%, and values are up 3.1% since bottoming out at the end of May last year.  
"Most other indicators are also showing some subtle improvements, albeit from a low base.  
"Consumer confidence has shown some improvement, commodity prices are once again on the rise, and share markets have shown some consistent gains as well.  The big wild card remains the labour market; how high will unemployment go and at what level will the RBA react with a further cut to the cash rate," he says.
Michelle Hutchison, spokesperson for financial comparison website RateCity.com.au, said that while there was no  cut from the Reserve Bank today, "it is possible that we’ll see lenders make an unprecedented move to cut their rates out-of-cycle this year".
"Lenders have kept 40 basis points on average from variable home loans since rates began to fall and with wholesale funding reportedly lower, they have room to move," she says.
"Borrowers need to keep a close eye on their lenders, find out what rates you’re paying and compare it to the rest of the home loan market using RateCity. The slow lending market is set to continue so borrowers are in a great position to haggle for an even better deal.”
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RBA leaves cash rate on hold at 3% in February 

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A mortgage war between the four major banks and the smaller banks is looming as APRA figures show regional banks Bendigo &amp; Adelaide Bank and Suncorp along with investment bank Macquarie Bank and mutual bank Members Equity Bank competed strongly for new mortgage customers in 2012.
This week Westpac signalled its intentions by becoming the first major bank to currently offer a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/news/westpac-lead-the-big-banks-below-5-on-nfixed-home-loans/2013020659208?utm_source=po&amp;utm_medium=aida&amp;utm_campaign=news">fixed-rate home loan below 5%</a>, while its subsidiary brands RAMS and St George have also cut their fixed-rate offerings.
Fairfax economic commentator Michael Pascoe told David Koch on Sunrise this morning that all a customer had to do was walk into his or her bank, show a loan approval from a lender like ME Bank offering a lower variable rate, and the bank would match it or beat it – echoing similar sentiments made by Business Spectator’s Robert Gottliebsen.
Pascoe says variable mortgage holders should not be paying an annual interest rate of more than 5.5%.
Tim Brown, CEO of mortgage aggregator VOW Financial, which has 600 mortgage broker members, told Property Observer recently that he expected banks to launch their discounted mortgage offerings over the next two months as they looked to improve their mortgage settlement numbers ahead of reporting season.
But he says it is possible to get a discount of up 100 basis points just by shopping around.
“Some of these discounts are advertised, but the bigger ones are a negotiation dependent on the standing of the borrower,” he says.
Property Observer's analysis of APRA banking figures for the 2012 calendar year reveals that Bendigo &amp; Adelaide Bank and Suncorp increased their owner-occupier home loans books by more than $2.5 billion each, achieving annual growth rates of 19.4% and 12% respectively.
This compares with average industry mortgage growth for owner-occupier lending over 2012 of just 4.1%, according to RBA figures.
Click to enlarge
Click to enlarge
<a title="Click to enlarge" rel="shadowbox" href="/images/stories/2013/02/banksfeb8.gif"><img src="/images/stories/2013/02/banksfeb8thumb.gif"></a>
Source: APRA * Commonwealth Bank and Bankwest figures combined from November 2012, Bankwest mortgage book around $38 billion.
The January 2013 competition index compiled by mortgage broker AFG reveal that Suncorp, in addition to performing well in its home state with 8.2% of the Queensland market and ranking as the fifth biggest lender, also performed strongly in NSW (sixth biggest lender with 9% of the market) and with some success in WA (eight biggest with 3.1% of the market) and Victoria (seventh biggest, with 2.8% of the market).
The APRA figures also show that Macquarie Bank was another stand-out home loan provider over 2012, with the fastest-growing home loan book of all bank lenders.
Over 2012, Macquarie doubled its owner occupier mortgage lending book from $1.55 billion to $3.17 billion as it returned  strongly to mortgage lending following its post-GFC exit.
Macquarie also teamed up with <a target="_blank" href="/news">Mark Bouris’s Yellow Brick Road franchise venture in November</a> to provide wholesale funding for its mortgage lending.
Another strong performer was mutual bank Members Equity (ME) Bank, which provides discounted home loans to eligible super fund and union members.
ME Bank currently offers a standard home loan rate to members of 5.88% compared with an average standard variable home loan rate of 6.42% offered by the major banks and is one of a number of lenders offering a one-year fixed rate at 4.99%.
Among the major banks, NAB was a strong performer, growing its home loan book by nearly 10% - more than double the average industry growth rate.
NAB offers the lowest standard variable rate of the major banks at 6.38% and has maintained this ranking for the past 43 months as part of a pledge to customers.
ANZ managed to growt its mortgage book by 6%, but both the Commonwealth Bank and Westpac – the two biggest home loan providers in Australia – grew at well below the industry average.
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Mortgage war looms as smaller banks show they are more than willing home loan providers: APRA figures

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Mortgage holders' dissatisfaction with the major banks is likely to grow if the majors continue their policy of not passing on rate cuts in full, or if they raise them independently of any future RBA cash rate changes. By contrast, the satisfaction of non-home loan customers is not affected by banks' reactions to RBA rate decisions.
New banking customer satisfaction figures compiled by researchers Roy Morgan found that while consumers’ satisfaction with the big four banks remained unchanged at 78.4% as of December 2012 – the highest it has been for figures going back to 1996 – satisfaction among home loan consumers sits well below that at 72.9%.
Westpac has the biggest customer satisfaction divide between its home loan and non-home loan customers, of 7.9 percentage points.
According to Roy Morgan, over the past 12 months, satisfaction among customers with home loans has fallen further behind other customers despite five interest rate drops.
Following the last RBA cash rate cut in December of 25 basis points, all the major banks passed on 20 basis points.
At least one more rate cut is expected in 2013, according to the most recent <a target="_blank" href="/news">Bloomberg survey of 28 economists.</a>
Click to enlarge
<a href="/images/stories/2013/02/roymorganfeb5.gif" rel="shadowbox" title="Click to enlarge"><img src="/images/stories/2013/02/roymorganfeb5thumb.gif"></a>
On an overall basis NAB has the highest customer satisfaction rating of 79.8%, followed by the Commonwealth Bank (79.7%), then Westpac (76.8%) and ANZ (76%).
These figures are still well behind the new mutual banks, with a satisfaction rating of 91.6%. This sector is made up of ME Bank, Heritage Bank, MECU Limited, QT Mutual Bank, Teachers Mutual Bank and Victoria Teachers. Building societies have a satisfaction rating of 90.2%, and credit unions 89%.
“The extensive publicity being given in 2012 to banks not passing on the full reduction in the cash rate is likely to have impacted adversely on home loan customers, as the gap in satisfaction at the start of the year was much less,” says Norman Morris, industry communications director at Roy Morgan Research,
“A reduction in the loan rate would normally be expected to be seen as a positive by borrowers unless it is perceived to be less that it should. “The increase in non-home loan customer satisfaction over the year is somewhat surprising as this group is more likely to have suffered interest rate declines on their deposits."
The trend to online banking and associated special deposit rates and less reliance on branches are likely some of the factors contributing to the improvement in satisfaction. “Despite the somewhat negative ratings that home loan customers are giving their banks, they still rate well above the ratings the business customers give them.
“The home loan customers of the big four banks have a satisfaction rating of 72.9% compared to only 64.3% for their business customers. With over 2 million business customers this is likely to be impacting adversely on their personal ratings of their banks,” he says.
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Big banks risk more unhappy customers by not passing on rate cuts in full: Roy Morgan

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AFG mortgage brokers wrote $2.2 billion worth of mortgages in January, the highest cumulative value on record for the group for the first month of the calendar year.

This was 24% higher than mortgages written by AFG in January 2012 of $1.82 billion - despite natural disasters in Queensland and NSW last month. 
Driving demand were strong levels of activity in WA and NSW. 
In WA mortgage volumes were somewhat higher than for NSW ($583 million compared with $569 million) with a variety of buyer types including first home buyers, upgraders and investors. 
AFG says NSW would have been even stronger except for the slump in first-home buyer demand by about two thirds since the withdrawal of first home buyer grants for established properties last September. 
“Borrowers seem to be responding to the combination of a more positive, global economic outlook, lower rates and enhanced affordability,” says Mark Hewitt, general manager of sales and operations at AFG.
 “These figures build on other statistics published recently showing an uplift in activity in property markets. But we shouldn’t lose sight of the fact that first home buyer activity in Queensland and NSW is only one third of the long term AFG average of around 15% of all home loans processed," he says.  Fixed rate loans fell to their lowest level since August 2011, comprising 16.3% of all new home loans with standard variable mortgages the most popular comprising two-thirds of loans arranged over January. 
Non major lenders (regional banks and non-bank lenders) managed to claw back some of the gains majors made last month, especially among first-home buyers, where they have 24.8% of this market. 
AFG bills itself as Australia's largest mortgage broker, writing one in 10 home loans in Australia through its broker members.
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AFG reports record January figures with $2.2 billion of mortgages approved

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Tomorrow the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy committee meets for the first time in 2013 to decide whether to adjust the cash rate. 
The majority of economists expect the cash rate to remain on hold – 24 out of 28 economists <a href="/news">polled by Bloomberg</a> last week said so on the back of house prices rising in January and unemployment still low.
The cash rate stands at 3%, with the lowest advertised variable rate on offer being 4.99% from lender Easy Street, owned and operated by Sydney-based Community First Credit Union.
For borrowers intent on refinancing with a major bank brand, UBank, the online offering of NAB, has a refinancing variable rate of 5.12%.
Non-bank lender homeloanHQ, with loans underwritten by a major bank, is offering three-year fixed fixed-rate home loan at 4.99%.
These are the lowest advertised mortgage rates based on listings by <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ratecity.com.au/">ratecity.com.au</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://mozo.com.au/">Mozo.com.au</a>,  <a target="_blank" href="https://www.infochoice.com.au/">infochoice.com.au</a> and <a href="https://www.homeloanfinder.com.au/">homeloanfinder.com.au</a> as of February 4:
Where the headline rate is the same, the lender with the lowest comparison rate gets preference.
Lowest variable rate offerings:
<table width="470" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="1"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="134">
Provider
</td>
<td valign="top" width="124">
Loan name
</td>
<td valign="top" width="97">
Rate
</td>
<td valign="top" width="116">
Comparison rate*
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="134">
Easy Street
</td>
<td valign="top" width="124">
Honeymoon Home Loan Special
</td>
<td valign="top" width="97">
4.99%
</td>
<td valign="top" width="116">
5.77%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="134">
Loans.com.au
</td>
<td valign="top" width="124">
Blackboard Special
</td>
<td valign="top" width="97">
5.09%
</td>
<td valign="top" width="116">
5.11%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="134">
UBank
</td>
<td valign="top" width="124">
UHomeLoan - refinance variable loan with a special upfront discount of 0.25%p.a.
</td>
<td valign="top" width="97">
5.12%
</td>
<td valign="top" width="116">
5.12%
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
Lowest one-year fixed-rate offerings
<table width="470" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="1"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="137">
Provider
</td>
<td valign="top" width="123">
Loan name
</td>
<td valign="top" width="95">
Rate
</td>
<td valign="top" width="114">
Comparison rate*
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="137">
ME Bank
</td>
<td valign="top" width="123">
Member Package SMHL Standard Home Loan
</td>
<td valign="top" width="95">
4.99%
</td>
<td valign="top" width="114">
5.62%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="137">
Resi
</td>
<td valign="top" width="123">
Flexi Fix Plus 75
</td>
<td valign="top" width="95">
4.99%
</td>
<td valign="top" width="114">
5.90%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="137">
Newcastle Permanent
</td>
<td valign="top" width="123">
Residential Fixed One year
</td>
<td valign="top" width="95">
4.99%
</td>
<td valign="top" width="114">
5.95%
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
Lowest three-year fixed-rate offerings
<table width="470" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="1"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="131">
Provider
</td>
<td valign="top" width="131">
Loan name
</td>
<td valign="top" width="96">
Rate
</td>
<td valign="top" width="111">
Comparison rate*
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="131">
homeloanHQ
</td>
<td valign="top" width="131">
Rate Lock Home Loan
</td>
<td valign="top" width="96">
4.99%
</td>
<td valign="top" width="111">
5.53%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="131">
eMoney
</td>
<td valign="top" width="131">
Pro Pack 75 – 3 Year Fixed Rate Home Loan
</td>
<td valign="top" width="96">
5.00%
</td>
<td valign="top" width="111">
5.67%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="131">
Resi
</td>
<td valign="top" width="131">
Flexi Fix Plus 75
</td>
<td valign="top" width="96">
5.12%
</td>
<td valign="top" width="111">
5.81%
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
*A comparison rate includes both the interest rate and the fees and charges relating to a loan, combined into a single percentage figure.
For information on refinancing, watch our free webinar <a href="/news">The Do's and Don’ts of Refinancing Your Existing Home Loan ... and How to Avoid Unnecessary Hurdles</a>.
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February RBA interest rate decision: A guide to the lowest rate home loan offerings as of February 4

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Some experts are saying that inflation is not an issue at present, meaning that rates can stay lower for longer. The financial markets are saying there is a 36% chance of a rate cut in February. This could mean we sit on the 3% cash rate for some time. There are some who believe we can go lower and now is the time to do so. 


Interest rates have more room to move, and we can get the economy going sooner rather than later with a rate cut early in the year.



Seeing that the December interest rate cut had little impact that was hoped for by the RBA and industry alike, a February or March cut of 0.25 percentage points is in my view required to generate the desired impact.



Cut the rate now by 0.25 percentage points to  keep the momentum required to stimulate activity to stabilise the economy.



Since 1990, when the cash rate was just 3% and the average standard variable mortgage had a rate of 5.8%, I believe there is plenty of room to move in terms of interest yet and that the economy is fairly stable overall, with reasonably low unemployment, a sturdy mineral sector and strong neighbouring economies such as China.



I think that a little slowing in retail spending does not necessarily spell gloom. However, a 0.25-percentage-point cut now would have had more of a result that the RBA is looking for. I see it as possible that we could be seeing an interest rate as low as 2.5% by the end of the year.
 Robert Projeski is the founder and managing director of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.amo.com.au">Australian Mortgage Options</a>, winner of over 12 industry awards. He is considered a leading property finance expert in Australia. 
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RBA should cut rates tomorrow to get the economy going

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This election year I would like to see banking competition finally addressed. Lending is too heavily concentrated in the hands of the four majors, which are 'too big to fail', with profits and pay packets underwritten by taxpayers at the expense of choice. 
Last year the International Monetary Fund (IMF) arrived at two key conclusions: that Australia has one of the most concentrated banking systems in the world, giving us a banking 'oligopoly' (or four monopolies). Second, that this oligopoly is a raw deal for the taxpayers who back it. 
I've consistently questioned the idea that we are better off being serviced by four mega banks that can never be allowed to fail than a higher number of mid-sized banks that don't suffer from the "heads we win, tails taxpayers lose" mentality. 
The majors are now among the 20 largest banks on earth. This means CBA, with a market capitalisation of $100 billion, is now bigger than McDonald's and American Express. 
While bank funding costs have plummeted over the last six months, the majors did not fully pass on the RBA's last two rate cuts to borrowers. 
If you had an online bank deposit or standard savings account your rates were slashed by as much, if not more, than the RBA's cuts. That's called margin expansion. 
The IMF found that the majors benefit from implicit taxpayer insurance whereby they can raise money more cheaply than smaller competitors because investors assume the government will be there to bail them out if they get into strife.
 The IMF argued the majors should hold extra capital (or reduced leverage) to lower the risk that reckless lending results in taxpayer guarantees coming back into play. 
In thinking about Australia's banking competition crisis, I believe the global "regulator of bank regulators", the Basel Committee, has come across a solution. 
To meet their cash needs during a funding crisis, the Basel Committee recommends that all banks hold more high-quality assets that can be pledged or sold in exchange for money. 
These include government bonds and AAA-rated "asset-backed" bonds. Most asset-backed bonds are simply portfolios made up of billions of dollars of our home loans. 
Smaller players like Bank of Queensland sell asset-backed bonds to raise new money to compete with the majors. The attraction is that the price of the bond is generally the same for everybody and depends primarily on the quality of the loans. 
If all banks are allowed to hold these bonds as part of a liquid assets portfolio, demand and activity for them will increase. This will improve the cost and accessibility of this funding source. 
I hope local regulators embrace these recommendations. They have instead championed the principle that banks should borrow directly from taxpayers when they need cash. This strikes me as odd: taxpayer bailouts should be our last line of defence. It is also surprising because the assets that secure taxpayer loans are the same ones used in asset-backed bonds! 
What do you think?<a href="https://twitter.com/markbouris" target="_blank"> Talk to me on Twitter</a> 
Mark Bouris is executive chairman of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ybr.com.au/">Yellow Brick Road</a>, a financial services company offering home loans, financial planning, accounting and tax, and insurance.
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mbouris-tauSvXGAM2

Oligopoly of the big four banks a raw deal for taxpayers: Mark Bouris

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It’s always interesting to see the outrage provoked in the real estate industry by housing affordability reports – whether they come from the Annual Demographica survey or publications in magazines such as The Economist that analyse the relationship between house prices and rental income.
If nothing else, it’s the opposite reaction to that provoked when median increases in capital city values are released. Such data is immediately celebrated, along with an inaccurate assumption that the increase has produced an equivalent dollar-by-dollar rise in individual house prices. There is rarely clarification as to what the figures actually mean.
The former publications somewhat agree with the suggestion that Australian housing is unsustainably overpriced – or to express it in more general terms, ‘unaffordable.’
Sensationalist headlines they may be, but no matter how exaggerated you perceive the claims, the crunch remains that we need as a community to provide housing for a growing population of low-income earners – and therefore affordability and supply are understandably red hot topics of concern.
In response, Australian property agents and economists dig out graphs along with various ABS and RBA statistics to prove that when compared with other “comparable” international markets we’re not so bad after-all – no bubble fear here!
“Australia is now broadly in line with other comparable countries, having risen relative to other countries since 1980 when it was at the lower end,” states the RBA in its latest study of house price to income ratios. And I’m sure many have grown tired of being lectured on the many viable reasons why we’ve seen prices and subsequently household debt increase. Reasons such as the inflation of dual-income households, ease of lending, lower borrowing rates, wage and population growth to name but a few.
These “comparable countries” include the UK, New Zealand, Denmark, the Netherlands, Canada etc. – and while it may be contextually useful to find some kind of affordability barometer on an international scale, I fail to see why it should result in the swept under the carpet conclusion that this makes our own levels of inner-suburban unaffordability somehow OK. This is a conclusion based in part on the principle that consistent demand from a dominant buyer demographic and a relatively stable job terrain mean we’re not in line for a ‘crash’ anytime soon.
Or – to put it another way – if the sky’s not falling in, forget sustainability, we can throw a few home buyer grants at the bottom end of the market as a temporary Band-Aid, waft a dismissive hand in the direction of some outer suburban nether land, and carry on ad infinitum with our ‘it’s all right Jack’, prop up the market housing policies.
 
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
 
Furthermore, it’s hardly complementary to compare ourselves to international terrains that – having been through somewhat harder lessons than our own – are also battling to induce first-home buyers out from underneath their rental blankets. They may look similar – but shamefully so!
As readers will be all too aware, one of the major problems with which Australia has to grapple is our need to be centrally located in and around the major capital cities. For this reason, we’ve effectively sentenced large swathes of home buyers into the equivalently priced markets of London and Paris, and the comparison isn’t pretty.
In UK, for example, despite the relative ‘crash’ in countrywide prices, prime real estate in London has continued to outperform fuelled in large on the attraction it holds for foreign investors. There are no restrictions on foreign ownership in the UK, which has of course helped fuel an investor-induced ‘rush to market’ into what many perceive to be a ‘safe haven’ to buffer against other more volatile assets.
Over 50% of property acquisitions around the ‘average’ London house price are sold to overseas buyers – and while foreign investment is freely permissible, I have no doubt this will remain the case.
A similar occurrence has happened in New York. It too is deemed a relative ‘safe haven’ for investors – hence why we’re now seeing 35-square-metre apartments for sale to combat the ‘housing crisis’ in a country renowned for its love of big houses.
Singapore, Hong Kong, China and Canada are all suffering inflated property prices in urban centres, once again fuelled by the investment sector. Singapore, for instance, has imposed temporary limitations on the number of properties investors are permitted to acquire and moved to increase taxes on ‘speculative’ sales. However, the measures are deemed temporary and therefore hardly sustainable over the long term.
New Zealand faces similar issues – it’s now been suggested that by 2040, only approximately 30% of NZ households will be able to afford a house over $400,000. It’s a worrying statistic.
All in all, few will counter that first-home buyers in the all the above markets are living on Struggle Street, with the outcry from this sector coming in loud and clear through various media outlets and social forums. However, for an industry focused on profits, the first-home buyer sector isn’t all that important.
Oh yes, you’ll hear the arguments about the need for first-home buyers to provide a ‘leg up’ for the second-home buyer market – in other words, activity at the bottom of the ‘property tree’ aids the offshoots at the top.
However, growth isn’t waning at the bottom of our real estate tree – it’s by all respects flourishing! This is because established ‘affordable’ property in the most desired urban capital city estates is a ‘hotbed’ of investor demand.
Investors make up roughly 35% of the active buying market in Australia; however they are not doing much to aid the supply of affordable accommodation – 92% of them purchase into the established market, and is it any wonder? They’ve been buoyed on by a boom decade of median price growth, indicating 10%-plus per annum capital gains for this type of accommodation.
Neither are they soaking up ‘luxury’ properties – an investment trend in some of our ‘comparable country’ markets. Most local investors have their focus primarily on property most suited to the first-home buyer demographic – the low-maintenance, easy-to-rent ‘affordable’ inner-suburban apartment market with prices ranging from $300,000 upwards.
Australia-wide, 58% of apartments are owned by investors. Break this down to a state-by-state capital city level and the investor-owned percentage of inner-city apartments is closer to 70% and in some areas exceeds even this.
 
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
 
Back in 2003 the RBA recognised the problem and advocated a moderation of demand in the property market amongst investors, by way of (prepare to take cover) tightening current negative gearing rules.
Figures from the ATO and RBA highlight the scale of demand – around 2 million Australians claim deductions for net rent, and around one-quarter of all household credit is there for the purpose of holding an investment property. Over 1.1 million investors are negatively geared, and growing numbers are taking advantage of changes in policy that allow investment property to be purchased as part of a self-managed super fund.  There is a whole sales industry built to cater solely for demand resulting from this sector.
Investors play an important role in all housing markets, they are needed and should be valued; however, at present, our models of investment – whether it is negative gearing, land banking or borrowing to purchase in a self-managed super fund – are solely reliant on capital growth and therefore demand is overwhelmingly concentrated on a reducing pool of established property. Hence why vacancy rates remain at historical lows.
Furthermore, don’t be fooled by the idea that any of the above assists in providing our rental sector with ‘affordable’ accommodation. Taxation benefits or interest rate drops are not passed across and we remain comparable in yield terms to our international counterparts that don’t facilitate such generous gearing rules.
If the intention is to increase the provision of affordable opportunities for the first-home buying sector, as well as increasing the vacancy rate for renters, we can only do so by increasing the supply of well-facilitated ‘quality’ real estate and reducing the ‘heat’ surrounding our city-based established real estate market.
Unfortunately, it can only be done through government policy, and seeing as we’re in an election year, the subject rightfully deserves attention.
In short, it makes no sense to encourage investment if it doesn’t achieve
<ol style="list-style-type: upper-alpha;">
<li>An improvement in housing affordability and supply;</li>
<li>An increase in vacancy rates;</li>
<li>A substantial boost to new housing and consequently infrastructure in ‘growth’ suburbs; and</li>
<li>Lower rents for the most venerable in our society</li>
</ol>
Current policy has failed to do this, are any of our politicians prepared to rock the boat and consider major reforms which could do so?
Catherine Cashmore is a market analyst with extensive experience in all aspects relating to property acquisition.
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Property investors are hurting the affordable property market, and negative gearing must be abolished

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The Reserve Bank will leave the cash rate on hold at 3% when it meets on Tuesday (February 5), according to the overwhelming majority of economists polled by Bloomberg.
Out of 28 economists surveyed, 24 expect the cash rate to remain unchanged in the first monetary policy meeting of the year.
Looking beyond February, economists are divided on the cash rate outlook with just over half (15 out of 28) expecting rates to remain unchanged in March.
Beyond that the median forecast is for a cash rate of 2.75% in the second-half of the year - suggesting at least one more rate cut.
However forecasts differ widely from 2% to 3.5% between now and year-end.
ANZ and Macquarie Bank tips a cash rate of 2% by year-end.
The Commonwealth tips a 3% cash rate by year-end, Westpac says 2.75% and NAB, 2.25%.
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