The residential transformation of St Kilda Road is set to continue into with more new apartment plans for the sought-after boulevard.

Wing Tai Asia has lodged plans for a major residential tower at 464-466 St Kilda Road, replacing the former VACC House with an 18-storey mixed-use development designed around a retained heritage podium and a sculpted contemporary tower.

The proposal, prepared under Victoria’s Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway, would deliver 325 apartments and ground-floor retail across the prominent 4,653 sqm boulevard site in Melbourne’s St Kilda Road North Precinct.

The project centres on the adaptive reuse of the site’s heritage-listed VACC Building, an eight-storey office designed by Bernard Evans that has occupied the address for decades. Planning documents state the development would involve “carefully dismantling and conserving off-site the original metal fabric of the podium visible from St Kilda Road,” before reinstating it as the defining frontage of the new scheme.

Above the restored podium, Wing Tai is proposing a curvilinear residential tower. The scheme includes 172 one-bedroom apartments, 63 two-bedroom apartments, 66 three-bedroom apartments, and 24 four-bedroom apartments, alongside two ground-floor food and beverage tenancies fronting St Kilda Road.

The tower has been designed with substantial articulation and variable setbacks to minimise perceived bulk and maintain view corridors along the boulevard. Urbis, which prepared the planning report, said the design “has been significantly articulated through a curvilinear design” with “an interplay with materials, façade expression and depth” to create visual separation and visual interest.

The proposal also includes 254 basement car spaces, landscaped pedestrian links connecting St Kilda Road and Queens Lane, and a biophilic landscape strategy featuring canopy trees, raised planters, cascading greenery and a glass oculus pool overlooking the eastern frontage.

Planning documents confirm the $270.1 million development will contribute 3 per cent of project costs to the Social Housing Growth Fund as part of the application process.

Wing Tai acquired the St Kilda Road property in 2018 alongside Abacus Property Group for $95.38 million, before later consolidating ownership of the site. The property previously served as the Victorian Automobile Chamber of Commerce headquarters for around 60 years.

The transformation of the St Kilda Rd boulevard is already beginning to materialise, with a number of high-profile projects recently completed, launched, or approaching launch as developers continue to back the long-term appeal of the precinct.

Among the most notable recent completions is Louise by Samuel Property Group, just off the strip on Queens Lane, the same pocket Hirsch &amp; Faigen recently launched The Queensbury. Mirvac is too on the same street with The Albertine, which is approaching completion.

Dexus recently secured approval for its slice of St Kilda Road, while Gurner also has approved plans for the precinct.

Joel Robinson

Wing Tai unveils 325-apartment St Kilda Road tower on former VACC House site

Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.

The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.

The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.

The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" />

SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.

“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.

The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.

“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" />

The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.

Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.

The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.

COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" />

“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.

The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.

The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.

Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a>

First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.

The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.

The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.

SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”

The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" />

The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.

A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.

Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" />

The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.

Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.

The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.

First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;

Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;

The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;

The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;

Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;

Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;

“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;

“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."

Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;

"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;

Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-6" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:84a2af5e-d7cf-4ddf-922a-f4d44d6c6caa-2" data-turn-id-container="request-WEB:84a2af5e-d7cf-4ddf-922a-f4d44d6c6caa-2" dir="auto">
<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-2" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:5a5ab36c-8dd3-454c-b456-c501f22f0eb4-0" data-turn-id-container="request-WEB:5a5ab36c-8dd3-454c-b456-c501f22f0eb4-0" dir="auto">
The arrival of the first piling rig officially marks the commencement of construction at SIERA’s new beachside apartment development, Exhale, in Northcliffe.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/exhale-surfers-paradise-8-enderley-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Exhale</a>, a glass-encased tower featuring 54 large-scale apartments at 8 Enderley Avenue, is SIERA’s third Gold Coast development. It follows the recently completed PIPIS Bilinga beachfront project, which achieved suburb-record prices, and the soon-to-be-completed Chevron Island development, Tapestry.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359603]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/siera">SIERA</a> Founder and Managing Director Brent Thompson said the arrival of the piling rig represented a significant milestone for the development, which is scheduled for completion in late 2028.

Over the next month, around 260 piles are expected to be installed as work progresses on the basement structure. The building is anticipated to rise above ground level early next year, before unveiling its sculptural glass curtain wall, developed in collaboration with specialist façade engineers.

“The façade was designed to maximise panoramic coastal views while creating a distinctive architectural identity,” Thompson said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=355935]

Designed by BDA Architecture, Exhale will comprise just 54 two- and three-bedroom residences across 26 levels, a level of low-density living rarely delivered in this beachside pocket between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach.

The project has been conceived as a resident-only building, with no short-stay accommodation permitted. SIERA says the model is intended to appeal to long-term owner-occupiers rather than transient holiday demand.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=361052]

Residences have been designed with large-format layouts and expansive glazing, with most apartments featuring more than 30 metres of glass frontage to maximise natural light and ocean views.

The amenity offering spans two levels and centres on wellness and lifestyle, including a heated magnesium pool, sauna, yoga and Pilates studio, gymnasium, private dining facilities, cinema lounge, and dedicated surfcraft storage.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359607]

More than half of the apartments have already sold. SIERA has also opened a sales gallery for Exhale at its Chevron Island commercial premises, near its Tapestry tower and the site of its second Chevron Island apartment development, which is slated to launch in early 2027.
</section>
</section>

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112661]

SIERA kicks off construction at Northcliffe tower Exhale

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVER
Australia’s property market found itself caught in a perfect storm last year.
With RBA interest latest sitting at levels not seen since the 1950s, an Australian dollar sitting below 0.80 to the US dollar, and a low a level of inflation, both investors and owner-occupiers alike saw it as the perfect opportunity to claim their piece of Australia’s property market pie. Across the country, we saw new dwelling commencements increase for the third year running at 211,860 in conjunction to the boom in Melbourne and Sydney’s house prices. But after experiencing this seemingly perfect storm that helped us sail prosperously through 2015, as we propel further into the next leg of the race many are left wondering; will 2016 provide the same conditions to herald a consecutive year of property market success?
Much like the weather, our economy is far from static. The forces that once may have assisted us can very quickly take a turn. Some will find this will ultimately put them at an advantage; for others, it may make the voyage a little less linear. While RBA interest rates currently sit on 2 percent and are expected to hold, and the Australian dollar floats around 0.70 to the greenback, it is the banks that have changed their game. The rhetoric of global economic uncertainty currently prevailing among business experts means that banks have had to respond. More stringent stress testing standards to assess their capability to respond to a financial downturn mean this is also being applied to investors in 2016. As the cost of capital has increased for banks due to greater risk, investors will now find it harder to access loans. While there has always been a degree of stress testing, the margins are now higher. The Big Four Australian banks have a large amount of security tied to residential debt, so while you may put in an application at 4 percent it is likely to be tested at 6 percent. This creates an environment where being able to prove cashflow is prime, highlighting two major players: those who have assets but are cashflow poor and may struggle to liquidate, and those with strong balance sheets with a large amount of cash on hand who can prove mitigation of future risk. For those who are able, commercial property will likely be the investment pick, with better yields and stronger prospects for long-term tenants providing stronger foundations for capital growth and ultimately a more secure investment.
It is important for both large scale and individual investors alike that property is not a short-term venture, and disruptions in the market should not instantly prompt investors to sell. Those who panic will ultimately lose because they are selling in a softening market if having purchased recently. Given the nature of our globally-linked financial markets and the uncertainty surrounding them, it is likely interest rates will remain low for at least several years to come. If you are sensible with the amount you are borrowing, and gear yourself comfortably, you are likely to be in a winning position in the long run.
Our perfect storm may well be on the turn, but it’s still presenting a whirlwind of opportunity for property investment. This will be easier for some more than others, but with a prudent and logical financial approach, there’s still plenty of opportunity to capitalise.
 
Andrew Fawell is director, Beller, and can be contacted <a href="https://beller.com.au" target="_blank">here</a>. 
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

The perfect storm continues for the Australian property market: Andrew Fawell

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The big four banks’ increased capital requirements will heighten the need for alternative funding sources for property development, according to a real estate investment firm Qualitas.
The company, which provides equity and debt financing to residential, commercial and retail property developers, discussed the issue in a briefing in Sydney.  
The Australian market is unusually dependent on big banks for commercial real estate lending, said group managing director Andrew Schwartz.
“Australia’s four major banks dominate the $230 billion commercial real estate debt market, with a market share of over 90%. In comparison, commercial banks in the United Kingdom and United States control between 40%-60% of the market, with non-banks, such as institutional debt funds, controlling the remainder. But real estate debt funds haven’t had a big presence in Australia to date,” he said.
This is set to change in the coming years, with the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority’s decision to increase the big banks’ required capital levels. When coupled with banks’ internal requirements that limit commercial real estate Loan to Valuation Ratios (LVRs) to around 55-65%, Qualitas says the market will need more options.
“The banks have their hands tied when it comes to making loans to property developers. As a result, there is a need for additional funding sources, which is where Qualitas fills the gap. Sometimes we provide this alongside the banks, through mezzanine debt, and other times we provide senior debt or equity,” Schwartz said.
While co-investing from its own balance sheet, Qualitas also invests discretionary capital on behalf of institutional and high-net-worth investors. It is seeing strong interest from offshore investors keen to access the Australian property market, which continues to demonstrate relative value compared to North American and European markets. 
“The depth of capital in foreign markets is huge - relative to Australia – and the weight of this money has compressed returns offshore, while they remain higher here. Some investors are also attracted by the fall in the AUD. As a result, we expect 2016 will see increased momentum of foreign capital coming to Australia. This is good news for the market, as it will increase the options available to those who need capital from alternative sources,” said Schwartz.
However, accessing quality deals in the local market can be challenging for overseas investors, according to Schwartz.
“Some of the biggest managers providing commercial real estate debt and equity capital globally aren’t seriously competing down here – they operate on more of a fly in/fly out basis. As a result, they don’t have the networks of contacts or on-the-ground access to deals before they hit the market.
“We deliver superior returns on a risk adjusted basis. Returns are attractive, so people assume it must be very risky. However, there are reasons they are high. Access is key: we are providing capital that our clients can’t source from the banks, while the market we operate in is very closed, built on networks, trust and long term relationships; so there is an information arbitrage at work,” Schwartz said to emphasise that Qualitas delivers above-market returns.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Bank funding gap for property development set to widen: Qualitas

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The Australian columnist Alan Kohler says to a large extent the 2016 Federal will be all about house prices, which he suggests "is both good and bad."
He says the Reserve Bank is out of ideas as "cutting interest rates to lower the dollar just sends house prices higher."
Instead Kohler says its the politicians’ turn to do something. 
The Labor Party wants to limit negative gearing to new construction, the Coalition wants to reintroduce the Australian Building and Construction Commission.
The policies, he suggests are seeking to address high property prices and  high wages. 
"Workers have to be paid a lot to service their housing debt; without overpriced houses, Australian wages wouldn’t have to be so high," he notes.
"Labor has a tricky selling task selling its negative gearing policy because it is trying to argue that the change will make housing more affordable, but won’t result in house prices falling. 
"So Labor leader Bill Shorten has to assert that it will merely lower the rate of increase in house prices.
"Similarly, the Coalition’s policy of cracking down on the construction union and bringing back that ABCC, which is the potential trigger for the double dissolution election and therefore its key reason, is an attempt to reduce the cost of building apartments and thereby reduce Australia’s high cost structure."
Kohler suggests despite it being discussed politically as an ideological anti-union crusade, "which it is to some extent", at a practical level it’s just an attempt to bring down Australia’s high cost of housing. 
"The dividing point between union and non-union construction is three storeys: anything above that height must involve the CFMEU.
"Research commissioned by Master Builders Australia has found that the difference in labour cost between four storeys and two storeys is 24 percent."
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Politicians time to take the reins with RBA out of ideas: Alan Kohler

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GUEST OBSERVER
Former Bank of England Governor Sir Mervyn King famously wrote that, “a successful central bank should be boring”.
The recent consensus in monetary policy, given the absence of major news about the Australian and overseas economies to inform policy makers, appears to be just that.
The unemployment rate, according to the latest ABS figures, fell to 5.8 percent, and inflation, at 1.7 percent, remains below the RBA’s target band of 2-3 percent. 
Economic growth came in at an annual 3.0 percent at the end of 2015, fuelled by stronger household spending and government expenditure, while investment declined by 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter, subtracting from GDP growth. Yet real domestic income increased by only 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter, reflecting a decrease in Australia’s terms of trade.
Overall, the outlook for the Australian economy looks much the same as the previous month. The CAMA RBA Shadow Board’s policy preferences remain virtually unchanged from last month. It continues to have a strong preference for keeping the cash rate on hold, attaching a 69% probability to this being the appropriate policy setting. The confidence attached to a required rate cut equals 23%, while the confidence in a required rate hike only equals 8 percent.
The fall in Australia’s unemployment rate can be almost entirely attributed to a fall in the participation rate from 65.1 percent to 64.9 percent. There has been no new data on real wage growth, which remains worryingly subdued.
The weakening of the US dollar has seen the Aussie dollar rebound to above 77 US¢. The trade balance remains firmly in deficit, equalling $2.9 billion in January (down from $3.5 billion in December 2015). Yields on Australian 10-year government bonds have inched up to 2.53 percent. The yield curve thus remains relatively flat.
Global stocks have rebounded spectacularly since the rout at the beginning of this year, while commodity prices have also gained some ground. Conversely, volatility, as measured by the VIX volatility index, has been declining steadily since its peak in early February. The last month has brought little in the way of news about the health of the world economy. The US economy still looks to be the pacemaker, with Europe, Japan, the BRICS countries and other developing economies expanding only modestly. High indebtedness in many countries remains a concern, even at historically low interest rates.
The Shadow Board’s confidence measures are virtually unchanged from the previous month. It attaches a 69 percent probability that “no change” is the appropriate policy, a 23% probability that rate cut is appropriate and an 8% probability that a rate rise, to 2.25 percent or higher, is appropriate.
The probabilities at longer horizons are as follows: 6 months out, the estimated probability that the cash rate should remain at 2 percent remains at 30 percent. The estimated need for an interest rate decrease has risen to 25 percent (23 percent in March), while the need for a rate increase has fallen to 45 percent (47 percent in March). A year out, the Shadow Board members’ confidence that the cash rate should be held steady dropped three percentage points, from 22 percent to 19 percent, while the confidence in a required cash rate decrease equals 18 percent (16 percent in March) and in a required cash rate increase 62 percent (63 percent in March).
To access the comments made by the RBA Shadow board <a href="https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/outcome/attachments/2016-04/shadow_board_comments_april2016.pdf" target="_blank">click here</a>.
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Steady is the word, again: RBA Shadow Board

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GUEST OBSERVER
Growth remains solid, supported by the services sectors, but it is still insufficient to lift inflation. The recent lift in the AUD could start to weigh on services exports, which have been a key source of recent growth.
We expect the RBA to be on hold, but to keep its easing bias, as it seeks to put downward pressure on the AUD.
Rising AUD is an increasing problem
The RBA is expected to be on hold next week. Domestic growth is solid, commodity prices have lifted, and global markets have stabilised. There is no pressing need to cut. The more interesting question is whether the easing phase is done?
On the one hand, the rebalancing act is well underway, demand in the non-mining sectors is solid and the unemployment rate appears to be past its peak. This argues for the RBA to remain on hold. On the other hand, underlying inflation is at the bottom edge of the RBA’s 2-3 percent target band and, although demand has lifted, so far, the pickup is insufficient to drive a rise in inflation. At the same time, lower global inflation and interest rates have been driving the AUD higher, which is set to weigh further on local inflation and potentially on growth. This argues for a further cut at some point.
Given HSBC’s view that global inflation and rates will stay low for some time yet, our central case is that the RBA will cut further. Otherwise, the AUD could rise further, putting more downward pressure on inflation and local growth. Our central case has the RBA delivering a 25bp cut in Q2, following the next CPI print, which we expect will show underlying inflation dropping below the bottom edge of the RBA’s 2-3 percent target band. Importantly, the RBA’s reaction function has historically been very much driven by the quarterly CPI prints. Combine this with a labour market where spare capacity is still weighing on wages growth and an AUD that is rising and we expect the central bank may need to cut further to keep inflation on target.
However, there is a clear risk that the RBA has a higher tolerance for low inflation than we expect. It is also possible that near-term domestic indicators will lift, following the apparent end of the recent bout of financial turbulence. In addition, the timing of a potential cut is complicated by local political developments. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s recent announcement that the federal budget will be a week earlier than usual, on 3 May, means that it will be on the RBA’s May meeting day, making a cut on that day less likely. There is also a possibility (not yet confirmed) of an early election, on 2 July, which could make a Q2 cut less likely. We stick by our view that a further cut will  be needed, but acknowledge that the likelihood of a Q2 cut is about 50:50, in our view.
<a href="/images/2016/04/4/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-04%20at%209.50.05%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/4/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-04%20at%209.50.05%20AM.png" alt="">
 
Growth has been solid as the ‘rebalancing act’ continues
The domestic indicators continue to suggest that the rebalancing of growth towards the non mining sectors is underway. Although the fall in mining investment has been massive drag on GDP growth, it has been more than offset by a strong pick-up in other factors. The significant fall in mining investment weighed on the economy over 2015, such that overall business investment subtracted around 2ppts from GDP over the year. However, the lift in other factors, including exports of resources and services, and household consumption, was sufficient to see GDP growth running at 3.0 percent y-o-y (an upside surprise to the market and RBA) (Chart 1).
The upside surprise to GDP growth was mostly driven by stronger-than-expected growth in household consumption, as the household saving rate dropped by a sharp 1.5ppts over the past year (Chart 2). Given the recent levelling out in housing prices (since August 2015) and the recent financial market turbulence, we do not expect further near-term falls in the saving rate, so we see household consumption growth slowing in the first half of 2016, in line with continued weak growth in household disposable incomes.
At the same time, other recent timely indicators also suggest that growth has slowed into the first quarter of 2016. Surveyed business conditions have pulled back from the high levels reached in the latter part of 2015, albeit they still imply solid growth rates (Chart 3). The official labour market numbers have also been weaker in recent months, albeit part of the retracement reflects measurement issues following exceptionally rapid reported jobs growth in late 2015 (Chart 4).
<a href="/images/2016/04/4/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-04%20at%209.52.30%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/4/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-04%20at%209.52.30%20AM.png" alt="">
 
<a href="/images/2016/04/4/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-04%20at%209.53.29%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/4/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-04%20at%209.53.29%20AM.png" alt="">
 
Recent lift in the AUD is worrisome
A key challenge the RBA faces is not that the domestic economy is not holding up well, but that local growth is insufficient to lift inflation and that weak conditions and lower interest rates in the rest of the world are putting upward pressure on the AUD. This is particularly important because the lower AUD has been a key driver of the rebalancing of Australia’s growth away from mining.
Exports of services, including tourism and education, have moved from being a significant drag on GDP growth (of around 0.75ppts four years ago) when the AUD was well above USD parity, to being a solid contributor to GDP growth more recently (0.5ppts over the past year) (Chart 5).
An increase in the AUD could weigh on growth in these sectors, which are expected to be the next drivers of Australia’s growth. In short, the response of the AUD to relative global interest rates may be becoming an increasing problem for the RBA. For more on this topic see Downunder Digest: Services exports and the AUD, 30 March 2016.
Although part of the increase in the AUD clearly reflects that commodity prices have rallied over the past month, our estimates suggest that the pick-up in the AUD has been sharper than is implied just by the rise in commodity prices (Chart 6). To a large degree, we see this as reflecting interest rate differentials, with more dovish recent commentary from the Federal Reserve’s Janet Yellen, contributing to the market’s view that the rise in US rates is likely to be slow.
The higher AUD is also set to weigh further on the inflation outlook. As at the RBA’s last set of forecasts (on 4 February 2016) the AUD was at USD0.72. The 7 percent rise since then would be expected to knock 0.1-0.2ppts off the RBA’s CPI forecasts, unless it also lifts its own domestic growth projections to offset this impact via an expected rise in domestic inflation.
To cut or not to cut, that is the question
The RBA has considerable reluctance to consider cutting further and understandably so. The cash rate is already at a record low of 2.00 percent, growth is solid and the unemployment rate appears to be past its peak. However, underlying inflation is at the bottom edge of its 2-3 percent band and the spare capacity in the labour market is keeping wages pressures subdued, which means domestic inflation is set to stay low. At the same time, the AUD has picked up, which is set to push imported inflation lower and could weigh on the new growth drivers: tourism and education exports. Much of the problem is that the rest of the world has much lower inflation and lower interest rates. If the RBA maintains its resolve, the AUD could increase further, slowing growth and weakening inflation. On balance, we expect the RBA may need to cut further.
Timing, tactics and politics
For the RBA the most common trigger for a cut is the quarterly inflation print, with the Q1 numbers due to be published on 27 April. Our central case is that the RBA’s underlying measures (the trimmed mean and weighted median) will drop below the bottom edge of the RBA’s target band in y-o-y terms. If this is the case and the unemployment rate remains well above full employment while the AUD is still higher, then the case for a cut in May would be strong.
However, the recent announcement by Prime Minister Turnbull that the annual federal budget will be handed down a week earlier than usual, on 3 May, now means that the budget will arrive on the RBA’s board meeting day. This reduces the likelihood of a cut on that day, as the central bank is unlikely to consider cutting while the government is delivering the budget.
It is also worth keeping in mind that the reason Prime Minister Turnbull has moved the budget forward is to allow him the option of calling an early election on 2 July. The prime minister is required by law to call an election before 17 January 2017 and had previously stated that an election was likely in September or October 2016. However, for political reasons, Prime Minister Turnbull is considering dissolving both houses of parliament and calling an early election on 2 July. If he were to call an early election (which is not a foregone conclusion), this could also reduce the likelihood of a further cut in rates in June or July (although it does not rule it out).
In short, irrespective of the economic numbers, a Q2 cut is looking less likely than previously for tactical reasons associated with politics. Saying this, a weak enough set of economic indicators would mean the RBA would cut anyway, despite the possible political implications.
We still expect a cut around mid-year but acknowledge that the likelihood of a cut in Q2 is now 50:50, in our view, partly due to these political possibilities.
 
<a href="https://www.about.hsbc.com.au/hsbc-in-australia/management-team" target="_blank">PAUL BLOXHAM</a> IS CHIEF ECONOMIST (AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND) FOR HSBC. 
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RBA on hold, but concerned about the rising AUD: HSBC's Paul Bloxham

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<div>
I've heard from several different sources now that Commonwealth Bank is experiencing mortgage applications at a pace never before seen. 
BDMs are advised brokers that it will take 8 business days for applications or queries to even be looked at, with no exceptions other than bank error.
Under no circumstances are applications being escalated to credit teams, due to their "experiencing unprecedented volumes". 
You could read several things into this. 
It could simply be that CBA is under-resourced over the Easter period.
But I don't think it's that. 
I take their comments at face value: over time low interest rates have caused demand for property to rise to levels that have never before been seen in Australia.
We shouldn't be all that surprised by this, given that the cash rate is at 2 percent, yet the unemployment rate has now been in a downtrend for 28 months, and the economy has not stalled in the face of its resources investment cliff as feared.
We already know that APRA has had to tap lenders on the shoulder to slow the thunderous pace of investor lending, which was threatening to spiral off the charts.
After a bit of a reshuffle, many would-be borrowers are now resurfacing in the guise of homebuyers.
It could also to some extent be the case that Commonwealth Bank is flexing its muscles in order to win back market share in what has become a very competitive lending market.<a href="https://www.afgonline.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/AFG-Competition-Index-March-2016.pdf" style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </a>
Australia's largest mortgage aggregator Australian Finance Group (AFG) reported within its March 2016 data that its flow of business to Commonwealth Bank increased from 17 per to 23 per cent over the quarter.
Meanwhile Commonwealth Bank's subsidiary Bankwest also saw a jump taking CBA's market share up to 31 percent. 
CBA's share of fixed rate lending in particular soared from 13.8 percent to 24 percent. 
At the state level, CBA is now the top lender in Queensland, New South Wales, and South Australia.
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<div><a href="/images/2016/04/01/AFG.jpg" target="_blank" style="line-height: 1.3em;">Click to enlarge</a></div>
 <img src="/images/2016/04/01/AFG.jpg" alt="">
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Source: AFG</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall, it should be expected that investor lending will steady in 2016, but there seems to be huge demand for home loans with term deposit rates so uninspiring and the share market delivering underwhelming returns.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

The top home loan lenders by state: Pete Wargent

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A real estate agent and company director accused of creating fictitious real estate listings to obtain early commissions and defrauding his company’s trust account of $808,173.69 has been handed a two-year jail term after he pleaded guilty to 12 charges in a Parramatta local court in Sydney.
The charges included a number of Crimes Act offences, including fraud and making and using false documents as well as offences under the Property, Stock and Business Agents Act for fraudulently converting money. A number of other charges were admitted and taken into consideration for sentencing.
Shaun Andrew Crockford, from Claremont Meadows, was sentenced to two years’ imprisonment to be served by way of an Intensive Corrections Order commencing 30 March 2016 and concluding 29 March 2018.
Fair Trading Commissioner Rod Stowe said Crockford, who was the sole director and company secretary of Quakers Hill Property Management Pty Ltd, created false contracts for sale of land signed by fictitious vendors and purchasers, false bank account statements, false sales ledgers and false stamped bank deposit slips.
“He was robbing Peter to pay Paul to keep his cash flow going,” he said.
“He fabricated 71 sales contracts for the purposes of drawing commissions from debtor factoring agencies, he provided fabricated records to the agency’s auditors over a number of years and created several fake owner statements issued to landlords detailing remittances that were never paid.
“Mr Crockford also fabricated a sales inspection report, exclusive agency agreement and sales contract document using the name of a former client and used an old contract reference number on the sales document.
“Furthermore, as a result of the defalcation of the trust fund, there was insufficient money to cover genuine purchasers’ sale deposits to account to genuine vendors on five real estate sales transactions in 2015.”
Properties were ‘created’ by Crockford for his fraudulent transactions in suburbs including Kellyville, Rouse Hill, Cherrybrook, Beaumont Hills, Schofields and Castle Hill.
NSW Fair Trading appointed managers over Quakers Hill Property Management Pty Ltd on 9 January 2015.
On 5 November 2015, NSW Fair Trading cancelled Crockford’s real estate agent’s licence and disqualified him from holding a licence for 15 years. He is also disqualified from being involved in the direction, management or conduct of the business of a licensee for 15 years.
 
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

NSW real estate agent gets two-year jail term for fraud 

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GUEST OBSERVER
The Reserve Bank Board meets next week on April 5. We expect that the Board will decide to hold rates steady.
It remains our long held view that the RBA will keep rates on hold for the remainder of 2016.
Steady rates will come as no surprise to markets with the probability of a move that is priced into the curve running at just around 5 percent.
We have consistently argued that any move from here, at these low rate levels, is only likely to occur at the February, May, August, and November meetings. Those meetings precede the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy when the Bank can release revised forecasts which are likely to be used to justify any move.
Market probabilities for the next “live” month, May, are only around 25 percent. A complication for the meeting in May is that it will now coincide with the release of the Federal Budget rather than precede the Budget by one week.
The market based probability of a cut by June has moved to 40 percent with a 100 percent probability of a cut priced in for December.
The most important market development since the last Board meeting on March 1 has been the surge in the Australian dollar. The currency has jumped from USD0.715 to USD 0.765, a 7 percent appreciation against the USD.
The Reserve Bank puts its emphasis on the Trade Weighted Index (TWI) where the movement has been from 61.3 to 64.2 (an increase of 4.7 percent).
Supporting the lift in the TWI has been a rise in Australia’s export commodity prices. Westpac ‘s Index of Commodity Export prices (including Iron Ore and Coal – WCFI) has lifted from 155 to 166 (up 7 percent) since the Board meeting in March. The spot iron ore price has surprised by increasing to US$54/t, up from $50 at the end of February and bouncing off the December low of $38 - despite plentiful supply and weak demand.
By far the most important issue around the announcement at 2:30pm next Tuesday will be whether the Governor decides to strengthen his commentary around the Australian dollar. Since August last year the commentary has been along the lines of the March Statement “the exchange rate has been adjusting to the evolving economic outlook”.
Recall that back in July last year he stated, “Further depreciation seems both likely and necessary…”. At that time the AUD was at USD 0.745 and the TWI at 62.5. Westpac’s broad commodity price Index stood at 176.
However by August he had adopted the benign, “The exchange rate has been adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices”.
By that time the AUD had stabilised at USD 0.74 and the TWI had settled at 62.0. Westpac’s Commodity Price Index had also held at 171.
Given there was little change between July and August the decision to soften the language in August implies that consideration must have been given to softening the language around the AUD at the July meeting. The Bank was probably looking for some sign of stability before changing the message.
Using strong language around the AUD had, arguably, proved to be a successful strategy in the period from March 2014 (when the Governor first referred to the AUD as being high by historical standards) until August 2015 when he adopted the “adjusting” commentary. Over that period the AUD had fallen from USD 0.895 to USD 0.74 (down 17 percent) while the TWI had fallen from 68.7 to 62.0 (down 11 percent).
Certainly other factors also assisted – Westpac’s Commodity Price Index fell from 304 to 171 (down 44 percent) while the Governor cut the overnight cash rate from 2.5 percent to 2.0 percent in the latter stages of that period.
Consider two points – the RBA would have assessed the “talk down” strategy as having been successful (although the AUD was little changed until November 2014 when markets started to detect a possible rate cut) and the precedent from July 2015 (TWI at 62.5; commodities at 176) compared with today (TWI at 64.2 and commodities at 166).
Those two points indicate that the Governor will certainly discuss reintroducing the strategy of “talking down” the AUD. That would imply changing the language around the AUD from “adjusting to the evolving economic outlook” to something like “a lower AUD seems both likely and necessary”.
Such a change in strategy around the AUD commentary would be very significant.
Most importantly it would alert markets that the Bank was uncomfortable with recent developments in the AUD and may be prepared to use interest rates to achieve its objective. (Arguably, the lesson from 2014, where there was little impact on AUD until markets started anticipating lower rates, points to that conclusion). Changing that commentary would certainly see markets increasing rate cut probabilities in the face of any further appreciation in the AUD.
But we also need to remember that central banks are inherently conservative institutions. We expect that, like ourselves, the RBA will be sceptical about the recent “recovery” in commodity prices and, more importantly, like ourselves, still expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates in June.
Buying some time before changing the strategy seems like the most prudent approach in the current circumstances. After all, the boost in the AUD has occurred suddenly in the space of just one month and a prudent patient approach seems the more likely policy outcome at this stage.
Accordingly, we do not expect to see any significant changes in the Governor’s Statement next week.
Bill Evans is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

RBA on hold, unchanged rhetoric on AUD: Westpac's Bill Evans

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The rising Aussie dollar has board members on high alert but the overwhelming majority of leading economists predict that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will keep the cash rate on hold next month, according to finder.com.au.
Thirty-four of 35 (97 percent) leading economists and experts in the <a href="https://finder.us9.list-manage.com/track/click?u=cc5e9bce699fa1d71a67cf499&amp;id=17d3826c80&amp;e=58cd8ffd03" target="_blank">finder.com.au Reserve Bank Survey</a>, the biggest of its kind, expect the cash rate to remain at 2 percent at the RBA board meeting on Tuesday (5th April, 2016). The last time the Reserve Bank cut the cash rate was in May 2015. 
Noel Whittaker, adjunct professor at QUT, was the only expert to predict further easing at the April meeting based on the recent strength of the Aussie dollar. 
Twenty-one experts (60 percent) predicted no movement for the rest of the year, with the majority of this group (20 experts) forecasting a rate rise – but not until 2017 at earliest.  
Just three experts (9 percent) expect a fall beyond 2016.
Bessie Hassan, Consumer Advocate at finder.com.au, said the RBA would be watching the Aussie dollar closely.
“Central banks often favour a depreciating currency to stimulate inflation and boost activity,” she says.
There was more good news for home loan customers with a drop in interest-only loans.
“With interest rates at record lows, fewer borrowers are opting for interest-only home loans as mortgage repayments become more affordable,” she says.  
Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority (APRA) analysed by finder.com.au reveal the percentage market share of interest-only loans nosedived from 45.8 percent in the June 2015 quarter to 37 percent by December 2015.  
“The value of new interest-only loans approved in Australia also dropped from $44 billion in the June quarter to $36 billion by December 2015 – the first time such a drop has been observed since the GFC,” she says. 
Ms Hassan says if the Australian dollar moves even higher, experts predict the Reserve Bank will feel compelled to step in. 
“The most popular months for indications of a movement in 2016 were May, June and July - with a total of seven economists (20 percent) predicting falls over these three months,” she says.
Of the economists (31) who weighed in on how low the cash rate would drop this cycle, 52 percent (16) said it would drop no lower than its current value. Twenty-nine percent (9 experts) predicted a low of 1.75 percent, and 19 percent (6) predicted the rate to drop to 1.50 percent or lower.
 
What our experts had to say in the April Reserve Bank Survey: Saul Eslake, Independent economist: "The RBA is satisfied that current monetary policy settings are consistent with inflation being within its target band and growth returning to (or remaining at) about its trend pace over the medium term. They may have some concern about the currently elevated level of the A$, were that to continue, but they would need to see whether the recent rise is going to be sustained before contemplating any action in response to it"
Melissa, A&amp;TA and The Money Barre: "I don't believe there's a case to cut rates at present and certainly no reason to move them upwards."
Shane Oliver, AMP Capital: "While the RBA retains an easing bias recent data suggests that economic growth has been stronger than expected so it's unlikely to act on that bias just yet."
Garry Shilson-Josling, Australian Associated Press: "There's no compelling reason to change."
Steven Pambris, Bank Of Sydney: "Economy  whilst not ideal is still  tracking ok "
Richard Robinson, BIS Shrapnel: "Economy still growing OK. No need to panic...yet"
Michael Blythe, CBA: "Economy not in need of any further assistance at this stage"
Savanth Sebastian, CommSec: "The economic data has certainly been more upbeat in the past month. However the Reserve Bank would want more time to gauge how well the economy is tracking. The recent lift in the Aussie dollar would be more concerning to policymakers."
Dr Andrew Wilson, Domain Group: "Close decision with higher dollar but may wait to see if  higher dollar will deflate. Recent jobless data better but volatile. Upward pressure on bank rates may force RBA hand sooner rather than later "
Scott Morgan, Greater Building Society: "I don't see any economic drivers for  an increase or decrease any time soon. The RBA will wait for more definitive evidence. The economy is not performing that badly. GDP figures were OK. The issue is that there are many other factors at play such as upcoming election campaigns, the actions of overseas central banks and worries about the $A. It has never been harder to crystal ball gaze."
Mark Brimble, Griffith University: "The RBA still remains biased to easing, but is very reluctant to do so due to fears around property and the general market volatility.  My view is that the economy does need support with China lowering expectations, Europe requiring and receiving further support, negative rates in Japan, and the US pace of recovering remaining muted.  The NZRBA cut rates earlier this month and the RBA will need to do so in the near future also.  They may wait one more month however."
Paul Williams, Heritage Bank: "The RBA are happy to continue to monitor market conditions and keep monetary policy generally accommodative"
Shane Garrett, Housing Industry Association: "No substantial change in conditions since last RBA meeting."
Michael Witts, ING Bank: "The RBA will likely be on hold as the domestic economy continue to perform positively with minimal impact from the equity and capital markets volatility from the earlier part of the year. The RBA will be concerned that the Australian dollar's move higher is contrary to the decrease in the terms of trade of recent years. "
James Boyle, Liberty: "There are signs that point to a need for action in the future – but none seem severe enough to increase the chances of a move higher than what is implied by the market. Perhaps for now monetary policy is in balance, but a major shift in wage inflation, housing construction or unemployment would encourage the RBA to take a different outlook"
Grant Harrod, LJ Hooker: "There has been no significant deterioration in the Australian economy since last month’s RBA meeting. The recent drop in the unemployment rate will see the RBA hold rates steady this month. However, the strengthening Australian dollar and low inflation provide scope for a cut mid-2016."
John Caelli, ME Bank: "The RBA will keep rates on hold due to strong growth data and employment numbers. The only concern is the strength of the Australian dollar. The RBA will keep the powder dry to help protect against any global market shocks.”
Mark Crosby, Melbourne Business School: "Markets have stabilised in the past month, and local inflation and growth numbers warrant a hold for the moment."
Emily Dabbs, Moody's Analytics: "The already low rates combined with rising employment are supporting domestic demand. However, if the dollar continues to appreciate, the RBA will move to cut rates."
Lisa Montgomery, Mortgage and Consumer Finance Specialist: "Although the RBA will be keeping a sharp eye on the rising Australian Dollar - data to hand will suggest that the Board will keep rates on hold for the near term", "My responses to your questions about negative gearing were on the assumption that they were about the policy being proposed by the Opposition - which includes 'grandfathering' of existing investors. If negative gearing were to be abolished without any such provision, then my answer would probably have been different, I would have said it likely would have caused a fall in house prices, probably of less than 5% - but not a 'major correction'"
Jessica Darnbrough, Mortgage Choice: "In recent weeks, unemployment has dropped, property prices have climbed slightly higher and new consumer sentiment data shows confidence continues to hover around average levels. All of these things combined should provide the RBA with no incentive to change the cash rate setting. "
Ken Sayer, Mortgage House: "The market is way too volatile nurturing uncertainty "
Chris Schade, MyState Bank: "Whilst it remains more likely the Reserve Bank will cut as oppose to raise rates in 2016, conditions in the domestic economy do not currently warrant such. That said, the Board will be closely watching economic developments over the coming period and remains ready to act if required."
Alan Oster, NAB: "Still looking to see what non mining adjustment does.  Too early yet", "My assessment that rates will not rise or fall this year is based on current economic factors and data. The economy isn't in too bad a shape. The issue is that there are many other factors in play such as broader confidence, election campaigns, the actions of overseas central banks and movement in in the $A."
Peter Boehm, onthehouse.com.au: "No compelling reason to move rates just yet - I think by the middle of the year we'll have a better line of sight of possible rate movements"
Jonathan Chancellor, Property Observer: "We are very close to the likely next move downwards, but it will still be a wait and see approach from the board."
Matthew Peter, QIC: "With resilient economic growth, the RBA will wait for data on inflation (later in April) and indications from the US Federal Reserve intended hikes to the fed funds rate before deciding on whether to lower rates or keep rates on hold."
Noel Whittaker, QUT: "Because our dollar is so high"
Angus Raine, Raine &amp; Horne: "The RBA will be keeping an eye on the strong Aussie dollar, and the wider global economy, as it makes its decision. Indicators such as a sluggish local jobs market will probably prompt the RBA to leave things 'status quo' this month."
Nathan McMullen, RAMS: "Reasonable prospects for continued growth in the economy remain and thus no compelling immediate case to ease rates"
Janu Chan, St.George Bank: "The RBA is still in "wait and see" mode. Low inflation is keeping the door open to lower rates, but it does not see a need to with non-mining sectors recovering. ", "Just to note that I haven't answered any questions on negative gearing because it is impossible to judge any impact without details of the proposed policy. For example, are we referring to getting rid of just "negative gearing" (only the losses on interest expenses) or is the policy aimed at eliminating deductions on all interest rate expenses altogether?  Are we looking at abolishing just deductions on interest rate expenses or all expenses that can be currently deducted against a property?  None of this is clear when we talk about abolishing "negative gearing" and these are important questions when considering any potential impact on the housing market.  "
Nicki Hutley, Urbis: "The economy is showing solid momentum, with minimal downside risks at present"
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Only one forecaster thinks there'll be an April 2016 RBA rate cut

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ANZ Banking Group will take a more cautious approach towards property borrowers' expenses from April.
ANZ is the final big bank to toughen rules on living expenses, in response to APRA concerns that banks have issued loans too easily.
Its note to mortgage brokers, ANZ said it would change the way living expenses were calculating home loan totals.
What the more prudent bank views as a "minimum" living expense will depend on the borrower's income, the number of dependants they have, and whether the application is for a joint or individual loan.
The changes, to take effect from April 4, Fairfax Media reported.
Mortgage brokers were advised on common scenarios, such as a hypothetical couple with two children wanting to buy a $500,000 investment property.
The slide pack says that due to the bank changing its estimate of such a couple's minimum living expenses, the maximum amount they could borrow would fall more than $50,000.
ANZ will also tighten assessments of overtime pay, bonuses and commissions. 
It will also lower its interest rate "buffer" – a rate that tests how borrowers would cope if interest rates rose.
"We regularly review our retail credit policies to ensure that lending remains prudent and aligned with risk appetite in light of the competitive, economic and regulatory environment," an ANZ spokesman said.
"For our customers, these changes are designed to ensure that we continue to assess any application for credit in a prudent way in view of their individual circumstances."
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