The residential transformation of St Kilda Road is set to continue into with more new apartment plans for the sought-after boulevard.

Wing Tai Asia has lodged plans for a major residential tower at 464-466 St Kilda Road, replacing the former VACC House with an 18-storey mixed-use development designed around a retained heritage podium and a sculpted contemporary tower.

The proposal, prepared under Victoria’s Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway, would deliver 325 apartments and ground-floor retail across the prominent 4,653 sqm boulevard site in Melbourne’s St Kilda Road North Precinct.

The project centres on the adaptive reuse of the site’s heritage-listed VACC Building, an eight-storey office designed by Bernard Evans that has occupied the address for decades. Planning documents state the development would involve “carefully dismantling and conserving off-site the original metal fabric of the podium visible from St Kilda Road,” before reinstating it as the defining frontage of the new scheme.

Above the restored podium, Wing Tai is proposing a curvilinear residential tower. The scheme includes 172 one-bedroom apartments, 63 two-bedroom apartments, 66 three-bedroom apartments, and 24 four-bedroom apartments, alongside two ground-floor food and beverage tenancies fronting St Kilda Road.

The tower has been designed with substantial articulation and variable setbacks to minimise perceived bulk and maintain view corridors along the boulevard. Urbis, which prepared the planning report, said the design “has been significantly articulated through a curvilinear design” with “an interplay with materials, façade expression and depth” to create visual separation and visual interest.

The proposal also includes 254 basement car spaces, landscaped pedestrian links connecting St Kilda Road and Queens Lane, and a biophilic landscape strategy featuring canopy trees, raised planters, cascading greenery and a glass oculus pool overlooking the eastern frontage.

Planning documents confirm the $270.1 million development will contribute 3 per cent of project costs to the Social Housing Growth Fund as part of the application process.

Wing Tai acquired the St Kilda Road property in 2018 alongside Abacus Property Group for $95.38 million, before later consolidating ownership of the site. The property previously served as the Victorian Automobile Chamber of Commerce headquarters for around 60 years.

The transformation of the St Kilda Rd boulevard is already beginning to materialise, with a number of high-profile projects recently completed, launched, or approaching launch as developers continue to back the long-term appeal of the precinct.

Among the most notable recent completions is Louise by Samuel Property Group, just off the strip on Queens Lane, the same pocket Hirsch &amp; Faigen recently launched The Queensbury. Mirvac is too on the same street with The Albertine, which is approaching completion.

Dexus recently secured approval for its slice of St Kilda Road, while Gurner also has approved plans for the precinct.

Joel Robinson

Wing Tai unveils 325-apartment St Kilda Road tower on former VACC House site

Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.

The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.

The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.

The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" />

SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.

“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.

The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.

“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" />

The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.

Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.

The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.

COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" />

“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.

The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.

The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.

Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a>

First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.

The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.

The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.

SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”

The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" />

The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.

A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.

Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" />

The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.

Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.

The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.

First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;

Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;

The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;

The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;

Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;

Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;

“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;

“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."

Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;

"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;

Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-6" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:84a2af5e-d7cf-4ddf-922a-f4d44d6c6caa-2" data-turn-id-container="request-WEB:84a2af5e-d7cf-4ddf-922a-f4d44d6c6caa-2" dir="auto">
<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-2" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:5a5ab36c-8dd3-454c-b456-c501f22f0eb4-0" data-turn-id-container="request-WEB:5a5ab36c-8dd3-454c-b456-c501f22f0eb4-0" dir="auto">
The arrival of the first piling rig officially marks the commencement of construction at SIERA’s new beachside apartment development, Exhale, in Northcliffe.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/exhale-surfers-paradise-8-enderley-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Exhale</a>, a glass-encased tower featuring 54 large-scale apartments at 8 Enderley Avenue, is SIERA’s third Gold Coast development. It follows the recently completed PIPIS Bilinga beachfront project, which achieved suburb-record prices, and the soon-to-be-completed Chevron Island development, Tapestry.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359603]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/siera">SIERA</a> Founder and Managing Director Brent Thompson said the arrival of the piling rig represented a significant milestone for the development, which is scheduled for completion in late 2028.

Over the next month, around 260 piles are expected to be installed as work progresses on the basement structure. The building is anticipated to rise above ground level early next year, before unveiling its sculptural glass curtain wall, developed in collaboration with specialist façade engineers.

“The façade was designed to maximise panoramic coastal views while creating a distinctive architectural identity,” Thompson said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=355935]

Designed by BDA Architecture, Exhale will comprise just 54 two- and three-bedroom residences across 26 levels, a level of low-density living rarely delivered in this beachside pocket between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach.

The project has been conceived as a resident-only building, with no short-stay accommodation permitted. SIERA says the model is intended to appeal to long-term owner-occupiers rather than transient holiday demand.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=361052]

Residences have been designed with large-format layouts and expansive glazing, with most apartments featuring more than 30 metres of glass frontage to maximise natural light and ocean views.

The amenity offering spans two levels and centres on wellness and lifestyle, including a heated magnesium pool, sauna, yoga and Pilates studio, gymnasium, private dining facilities, cinema lounge, and dedicated surfcraft storage.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359607]

More than half of the apartments have already sold. SIERA has also opened a sales gallery for Exhale at its Chevron Island commercial premises, near its Tapestry tower and the site of its second Chevron Island apartment development, which is slated to launch in early 2027.
</section>
</section>

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112661]

SIERA kicks off construction at Northcliffe tower Exhale

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

<html><body>
Yields down since last month and almost back to levels in April 2015.
As part of our continued series on interest rates, Secret Agent has been tracking movements in the bond yield curve since late last year. If you don’t know why bond yields are so important for property investors, download our yield curve report.
So far this month, short, medium and long term treasury bond yields are down by between 0.06 percent for 90 day bills and 0.16 percent for 10 year bonds. This is shown in Figure 1.
<a href="/images/2016/04/14/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-14%20at%202.16.27%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/14/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-14%20at%202.16.27%20PM.png" alt="">
Note that lower bond yields are not necessarily a bad thing for bond investors, as yields and prices of bonds move in opposite directions. In fact, over the Easter period in particular, many bonds saw a large increase in price. One major cause was the announcement by the big banks (ANZ in particular) that bad debt charges are higher than market consensus. This drove a lot of investors to seek out bonds as an alternative, in turn driving up bond prices.
The continued downward trend on bond yields means that yields across the board are nearly back to levels seen in April 2015 (Figure 2), which was just before the RBA last cut interest rates.
<a href="/images/2016/04/14/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-14%20at%202.18.11%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/14/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-14%20at%202.18.11%20PM.png" alt="">
This again indicates low investor confidence and a bleaker outlook for the economy. It also increases the likelihood of a RBA interest rate cut before the end of the year.
For more information, <a href="https://secretagent.com.au/" target="_blank">click here</a>.
</body></html>

jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Bond yield curve indicates possible end of year rate cut: Secret Agent

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVER
Total new loans (personal, business, housing &amp; lease) rose by 3.5 percent in February after a 3 percent fall in January. Lending was just 5.5 percent shy of the 7ó-year high recorded in September.
Total lending is down 0.7 percent on a year ago.
Consumer sentiment: The Westpac/Melbourne Institute index of consumer confidence fell by 4 percent in April to 95.1 – a 7-month low. A reading of 100 is the dividing line separating optimism from pessimism.
Dwelling starts: Starts fell by 5.1 percent in the December quarter after lifting by a revised 2.3 percent in the September quarter. Work started on a record 220,845 new dwellings over the year to December, well above the decade average of 164,317 dwellings.
China trade data: The trade surplus narrowed from US$32.59 billion to US$29.86 billion in March. Exports were up 11.5 percent over the year (forecast: +2.5 percent) while imports were down by -7.6 percent (forecast: -10.1 percent).
The lending figures have implications for finance providers, retailers, and companies dependent on consumer and business spending. The consumer confidence data is important for retailers and consumer-facing businesses. Building &amp; building material companies are affected by dwelling starts including Boral, James Hardie, Adelaide Brighton, Brickworks, AV Jennings Limited, Devine Limited and Beacon Lighting.
<a href="/images/2016/04/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-13%20at%202.57.15%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-13%20at%202.57.15%20PM.png" alt="">
What does it all mean?
A mixed bag in terms of the data flow. Aussie consumers have certainly become more cautious, with confidence levels sliding to 7-month lows. The result mirrors the four-week slide in the weekly consumer sentiment survey.
Unfortunately elections cause consumers and businesses to hold back on spending, employment and investment plans, and that is the risk to the positive momentum that has built up in recent months. Interestingly not even a stronger Australian dollar has been able to prop up consumer confidence. No doubt policymakers would be hoping that the slide in confidence is a temporary situation.
Encouragingly the lending data was more upbeat alongside better exports figures out of China. The last couple of months of Chinese data need to be studied with caution given the timing of Chinese New Year.
However the latest data certainly suggests that activity levels are lifting and no doubt will give investors a degree of optimism, particularly in light of the recent surge in commodity prices.
The lift in borrowing across the economy in February essentially negates the prior month’s weakness. Overall, lending is healthy - no doubt driven by housing but leasing has also been strong. The hope would be that business borrowings continue to lift - driving investment and supporting medium term growth.
The generational low interest rates will be supportive of further borrowing – but there is no guarantee. The interesting point for the Reserve Bank though is whether another cut in the cash rate would serve any purpose.
Borrowers are cautious about taking on more debt. And lower interest rates compress bank margins, affecting profits and potentially investment, employment and shareholder returns.
<a href="/images/2016/04/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-13%20at%202.59.33%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-13%20at%202.59.33%20PM.png" alt="">
What do the figures show?
Lending Finance
Total new loans  (personal, business, housing &amp; lease) rose by 3.5 percent in February after a 3 percent fall in January. Lending was just 5.5 percent shy of the 7ó-year high recorded in September. Total lending is down 0.7 percent on a year ago.
Housing finance:  The seasonally adjusted measure of construction and new purchases rose by 1.7 percent in February while alterations &amp; additions rose by 2.7 percent. Home loans are up 15.6 percent on a year.
Commercial finance : The seasonally adjusted series for the value of total commercial finance commitments rose by 5.6 percent in February after falling by 2.6 percent in January. Revolving credit commitments rose by 10.6 per cent. Fixed lending commitments rose by 4 percent. Business loans are down 5.6 percent over the year.
Personal finance : The seasonally adjusted series for the value of total personal finance commitments fell by 3.1 percent in February after falling by 1.3 percent in January. Revolving credit commitments fell by 9.8 percent and fixed lending commitments rose by 1.3 percent. Personal loans are down 11.9 percent over the year.
Within personal fixed finance commitments,  loans for new cars were up by 17.2 percent on a year earlier while loans for used cars were up 4.3 percent. Loans for residential blocks of land were up by 10.8 percent on a year ago.
Lease finance : Lending fell by 3.3 percent in February and was up 9.2 percent over the year.
Consumer sentiment:
The Westpac/Melbourne Institute index of consumer confidence fell by 4 percent in April to 95.1 after sliding by 2 percent in March. The confidence index is down 1.1 percent on a year ago.
The current conditions index fell by 1.1 percent while the expectations index fell by 6 percent.
Four of the five components of the index fell in April:
The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was down  by 3.9 percent;
The estimate of family finances over the next year was down  by 6.6 percent;
Economic conditions over the next 12 months was down  by 5.5 percent;
Economic conditions over the next 5 years was down  by 6 percent;
The measure on whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was up  by 1.1 percent.
Gender &amp; demographics: Men (index reading of 99.2, down 5.1 percent) were more optimistic than Women (91.2, down 3.3 percent). The sentiment index for young people rose by 10.7 percent to 109.6 in April. Across the other demographics: 25-44 years (index 99.4, down by 3.6 percent); 45 years plus (index 88.7, down 7.8 percent).
Housing outlook: A good time to buy a dwelling? – Index down 9.2 percent in the month and down 12.3 percent on the year.
State sentiment levels: NSW (down 10.3 percent), Victoria (up 0.7 percent), Queensland (up 7.4 percent), Western Australia (down 12.2 percent) and South Australia (down 5.9 percent).
<a href="/images/2016/04/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-13%20at%203.00.32%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-13%20at%203.00.32%20PM.png" alt="">
Dwelling starts
Dwelling starts (commencements) fell by 5.1 percent in the December quarter after lifting by a revised 2.3 per cent in the September quarter. House approvals fell by 5.4 percent and apartments fell by 3.8 percent. Work started on a record 220,845 new dwellings over the year to December, well above the decade average of 164,317 dwellings.
Across Australia, starts in the December quarter rose in five states: NSW (up 1.6 percent); Victoria (up 4.7 percent); Queensland (up 4.9 percent); South Australia (down 4.8 percent); Western Australia (down 5.7 percent); Tasmania (down 2.8 percent); Northern Territory (up 2.1 percent); and the ACT (up 2.9 percent)
In the year to December, dwelling starts were higher than the decade average in all the states &amp; territories except for Western Australia (down 12 percent) and South Australia (down 9.5 percent). Starts were at record highs in Victoria (68,943), and NSW (59,016).
Dwelling starts in NSW in the December quarter were 62.9 percent above the decade average.
Chinese trade data
The trade surplus  narrowed from US$32.59 billion to US$29.86 billion in March. Exports were up 11.5 percent over the year (forecast: +2.5 percent) while imports were down by -7.6 percent (forecast: -10.1 percent).
What is the importance of the economic data?
Lending Finance is released monthly by the Bureau of Statistics and contains figures on new housing, personal, commercial and lease finance commitments. The importance of the data lies in what it reveals about the appropriateness of interest rate settings, confidence and spending levels in the economy.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
The Reserve Bank will maintain its ‘easing bias’ as it attempts to gauge how the economy is tracking. No doubt the lift in the Australian dollar to above US77c following the release of the China trade figures would cause policymakers some angst if it was maintained. Tomorrow’s labour market figures and inflation (April 27) will be the key data points ahead of the May Reserve Bank Board meeting.
It’s important not to ‘over-think’ consumer confidence. For most punters, the Aussie dollar, interest rates, petrol prices, home prices and the job market are the key factors determining whether someone is positive or negative on supposedly ‘economic’ issues.
Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a>
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Lending lifts, confidence at 7-month lows: CommSec's Savanth Sebastian

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The tougher lending criteria being imposed by the major banks, particularly in regards to living expenses, is silly and irrelevant, the former CEO of the Australian Institute of Professional Brokers has argued.
The tougher rules are hurting prime borrowers, said founder and owner of Melbourne-based Universal Wealth Management Maria Rigoni, speaking to MPA's sister publication Australian Broker.
“Lending criteria is getting harder and harder so really good, credit-worthy borrowers are being declined loans on the most simple and silly of reasons.
“What is happening is people are finding it harder and harder to borrow or refinance. You might have all these cheaper options out there, but with the way that [the banks] are squeezing down how much people can borrow, consumers are being stuck in high interest rate loans and you can’t move.” Rigoni’s argument comes just after ANZ announced in a note to mortgage brokers that it would change the way minimum living expenses were calculated when it decides on home loans.
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Broker slams major banks over lending criteria

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GUEST OBSERVER
The RBA held its cash rate steady at 2.00 percent, as expected, and maintained an easing bias. The biggest change to the post-meeting statement was an added paragraph noting concerns about the recent appreciation of the AUD.
The RBA stated that 'under present circumstances, an appreciating currency could complicate the adjustment under way in the economy'.
It is clear that the RBA believe that a rising currency is unhelpful, as it could slow the pace of rebalancing, particularly towards the tourism and education sectors, which are exchange-rate sensitive. We stick by our view that a further cash rate cut will be needed. On timing, our central case is for a cut before end-Q2, but we see this as 50:50, given the upcoming budget timing and the possibility of an early election.
Facts
- The cash rate was held steady today at 2.00 percent, as expected (all 26 economists in the Bloomberg survey expected a hold decision).The market was pricing a 5 percent chance of a cut just prior to the announcement.
Implications
Today's post-meeting statement appears to have shifted the RBA back into AUD 'jawboning' mode. Although the statement made no reference to an appropriate level for the currency, it relayed the RBA's concern about the recent rise in the currency.
Whereas the previous statement had noted that 'the exchange rate had been adjusting to the evolving economic outlook', today the RBA said that, although the appreciation 'in part, reflects some increase in commodity prices, monetary developments elsewhere in the world have also played a role'.
The first point of interest is that the RBA acknowledges that the rise in the currency is not just in line with commodity prices. The second point is the reference to monetary developments elsewhere in the world, which suggests that the RBA may be becoming increasingly concerned about the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve and of the negative rate settings in Europe and Japan.
The challenge for the RBA remains that global inflation and interest rates are low, which is putting upward pressure on the AUD at a time when Australia needs a more competitive currency to assist with rebalancing growth at the end of the mining boom. As they noted today, 'under present circumstances, an appreciating currency could complicate the adjustment under way in the economy'.
Their use of the words 'under present circumstances', implies that the currency is an increasingly important driver of growth as Australia's economy shifts to being more driven by services exports, such as tourism and education exports.
Although the RBA has considerable reluctance about the idea of cutting its cash rate further, it may yet have to cut, in order to keep the currency competitive.
 
<a href="https://www.about.hsbc.com.au/hsbc-in-australia/management-team" target="_blank">PAUL BLOXHAM</a> IS CHIEF ECONOMIST (AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND) FOR HSBC. 
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RBA jawboning the AUD, again: HSBC's Paul Bloxham

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GUEST OBSERVER
As expected the Board of the Reserve Bank decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2 percent.
It also retained the key final sentence in the Governor’s statement: “Continued low inflation would provide scope for easier policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand.”
As we indicated in the preview by far the most important section of the statement was going to be the commentary around the Australian dollar. Since the March meeting the AUD has risen from 71.50c US to 75.75 (at the time of the meeting) having exceeded 76.50 just before the meeting. Astute observers of the Reserve Bank know that the key currency measure is the Australian trade weighted index which also had risen from 61.30 to 64.20 between meetings (an increase of 4.7%). The question was whether the Governor would attempt to ‘talk down’ the AUD along the lines he used through 2014 and up until July 2015. In fact in July 2015 when the AUD was 74.5c US and the TWI 62.5 he noted “further depreciation seems both likely and necessary”.The broad commodity price index was around the same level in July last year as it is today.
In our preview we commented that it was unlikely that the Governor would attempt to talk down the currency. In the event that proved to be correct. He certainly recognised that the AUD had risen (“somewhat”) and partly attributed it to monetary policy overseas. He also noted that an appreciating exchange rate could complicate the economic adjustment. All of these remarks are factual rather than indicating a clear intention to bring down the AUD. We can only conclude that a further substantial appreciation in the AUD would be necessary to trigger a policy response. It is interesting that the AUD lifted above 76c US in the aftermath of the statement indicating that currency markets at least were expecting stronger negative sentiment towards the recent rise in the AUD.
There has been recent talk about the importance of the upcoming inflation report due out on April 27. Westpac expects that the underlying inflation will print at 0.6%qtr consistent with the Bank’s current forecast that underlying inflation print 2.5% for the year. Surprises on inflation are always important indicators for policy and it is significant that the Governor referred to “new information … to assess the outlook for inflation”. With global financial markets settling down since the March statement the inflation report has replaced “recent financial turbulence” as the important new source of information along with labour market conditions.
A possible compromise for the Bank to put indirect downward pressure on the AUD would have been a more downbeat view on China than we saw in March. In the event the statement’s line on China was the same as March: “China’s growth rate has continued to moderate”.
Since the March meeting the Board has had the benefit of the December quarter GDP report which showed that the Australian economy grew by 3% in 2015 compared to the Bank’s forecast in February 2016 of 2.5%. Such results encouraged the Governor to continue to be reasonably upbeat about the economy: “available information suggested the economy is continuing to rebalance”; “the Board judged that there were reasonable prospects for continued growth in the economy”.
There was no change in the commentary on the housing market while the stronger growth confirmed, from the Bank’s perspective, the improved labour market conditions.
Conclusion
We are retaining our call that rates will remain on hold for the remainder of the year. That is predicated on the Australian dollar remaining broadly in the 70-76c US range. Factors that will assist the containment of the recent lift in the AUD will be a tightening by the US Federal Reserve in June and ongoing concerns about stability in China. Today’s statement certainly does not identify a trigger level for the AUD to elicit a policy response. We do not envisage a further significant surge in the AUD and remain comfortable with a steady policy outlook.
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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Rates will remain on hold for the remainder of the year: Westpac's Bill Evans

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GUEST OBSERVER
As widely expected the RBA left interest rates on hold at its April meeting. This marks the eleventh month in a row with the cash rate remaining at 2 percent.
In its Statement accompanying the decision, the RBA again made very little changes and retained an easing bias. However, it did acknowledge the recent improvement in commodity prices and financial markets and dropped the reference to assessing the impact of financial turbulence on the economic outlook. 
Significantly though the RBA singled out the rise in the value of the Australian dollar, which is up 6 percent since the last meeting, devoting a whole paragraph to the currency as opposed to a single sentence in last month’s Statement.
In noting that an appreciating Australian dollar could “complicate the adjustment underway in the economy”, the RBA has effectively reintroduced a subtle form of jawboning designed to try and push it back down again. The clear implication is that a further gain in the value of the $A could cause the RBA to act on its bias to cut interest rates again.
Our view remains that the RBA will indeed cut interest rates again in the months ahead for four reasons. First, growth is likely to slow back to around 2-2.5 percent as the contribution from housing fades reflecting falling building approvals (see the next chart) and fading wealth effects at a time when mining investment is still contracting. Second, unemployment is likely to remain relatively high at around 6 percent with jobs growth slowing. Third, inflation is likely to remain at or below the bottom of the RBA’s 2-3 percent inflation target.
And finally, the recent rebound in the value of the $A is a threat to trade exposed sectors like tourism, higher education and manufacturing helping to fill the growth gap left by a slowing housing sector. Soft jobs data next week, soft March quarter inflation data later this month and continued strength in the $A could set the scene for a May rate cut, which is our base case, or failing that it could be delayed into the September quarter.
 <a href="/images/2016/04/6/image004.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/6/image004.png" alt="">
Source: ABS, AMP Capital
 
However, whether there is another rate cut or not from the RBA, it remains very hard to see rate hikes any time soon. So the period of low interest rates is set to continue.
<a href="/images/2016/04/6/image007.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a> 
<img src="/images/2016/04/6/image007.png" alt="">
Source: RBA, AMP Capital
 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home" target="_blank">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
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RBA on hold for 11th month in a row, but rising $A presenting complications: AMP Capital's Shane Oliver

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GUEST OBSERVER
Australia’s trade deficit widened from $3.16 billion in January to $3.41 billion in February. It was the 23rd consecutive monthly deficit. The rolling 12-month deficit stood at a record high $44.53 billion in the year to February.
Exports to US: In the year to January, Australia exported $13.57 billion of goods to the US – just shy of the record high $13.69 billion in the year to October 2015. But the share of annual exports going to the US lifted from 5.44 per cent to a fresh 7-year high of 5.53 per cent.
Consumer confidence: The weekly ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating fell by 1.1 points (1 per cent) to 113.4 in the week to April 4. Confidence is still 3.4 per cent higher over the year and above the average index value of 112 since 2014.
New vehicle sales: There were 104,512 in March, down 0.5 per cent over the year. SUVs accounted for a record 36.2 per cent of all vehicle sales in the 12 months to March.
The trade data has the potential to affect the Aussie dollar so may be important for exporters. The data on car sales provide insights into consumer and business spending Stocks affected include Super Retail Group, AP Eagers, Automotive Holdings, ARB Corporation and Schaffer Corp. The consumer confidence figures have implications for finance providers, retailers, and companies dependent on consumer and business spending.
What does it all mean?
The latest trade data was decidedly weak. Not only have the trade accounts been in deficit for almost two consecutive years, but the 12-month rolling annual deficit came in at $44.5 billion – the largest deficit in monthly records going back 45 years. However the trade data doesn’t have the impact on the currency that it once did. Given that the currency fell less than a fifth of a cent it is pretty clear that there appears little concern by foreign investors about the red ink. Over the medium term it is likely that trade deficits will remain the norm.
Interestingly consumption good imports rose by over 3 per cent and are up almost 10 per cent on a year ago. At face value this may be an early sign that consumer activity is lifting, and as a result more goods are being imported. 
<a href="/images/2016/04/6/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-06%20at%209.53.29%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/6/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-06%20at%209.53.29%20AM.png" alt="">
It’s clear that a lower currency will be required to continue to support the rebalancing across the economy - particularly in light of providing a further boost to Australia’s rural and services exports. The other interesting shift is the strength in exports to the US. In the past year Australia exported $13.57 billion of goods to the US – just shy of the record high of $13.69 billion in the year to October 2015. In addition the share of annual exports to the US is now at a 7-year high. While China will continue to remain our dominant trading partner the lift in activity with other nations like the US and India will help to alleviate some of the weakness.
The car industry has certainly been a key beneficiary of improved household budgets and low interest rates. Over the year to March, a total of 1,163,143 new vehicles were sold - just shy of the record 1,163,684 sold in the year to February. And March vehicle sales were affected by the early timing of Easter.
Of note, sports utility vehicles (or four-wheel drive vehicles) remain the ‘new black’. While sales of ‘ordinary’ passenger cars fell by over 9 per cent in March compared with a year ago, SUVs lifted by 8.3 per cent over the year. In fact 421,625 SUVs were sold over the past year – a record high. One in three new vehicles sold in Australia is a SUV. And almost 46 per cent of combined SUV and passenger cars sold are SUVs.
<a href="/images/2016/04/6/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-06%20at%209.54.43%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/6/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-06%20at%209.54.43%20AM.png" alt="">
What do the figures show?
International trade:
Australia’s trade deficit widened from $3.16 billion in January to $3.41 billion in February. It was the 23rd consecutive monthly deficit. The rolling 12-month deficit stood at a record high $44.53 billion in the year to February.
In February, exports of goods and services fell by 1.2 per cent (goods down by 1.3 per cent) while imports of goods and services fell by 0.2 per cent (goods up by 0.2 per cent). Exports are down 8.5 per cent on a year ago, while imports are down by 2.0 per cent.
Rural exports fell by 5.5 per cent after sliding by 1.8 per cent in January. Non-rural exports rose by 1.6 per cent (but gold fell 20.4 per cent) after rising by 2.2 per cent in January.
Within imports, consumer imports rose by 3.4 per cent with capital goods imports up by 0.4 per cent while intermediate goods imports fell by 3.1 per cent.
Consumption goods imports are up 9.5 per cent on a year ago while capital goods imports are down by 9 percent and intermediate goods imports are down by 12.2 per cent.
Australia's annual exports to China stood at a 31-month low of $79.0 billion in the year to February. Annual exports were down 8.4 per cent on a year ago. Exports to China accounted for 32.2 per cent of Australia's total exports.
Australia's annual imports from China rose from $61.88 billion to a record high of $62.01 billion in the year to February, up 14.8 per cent on a year ago. Imports from China accounted for 23.2 per cent of Australia's total imports in February.
Australia's rolling annual trade surplus with China hit a 5-year low of $17.01 billion in February, well down from the record high of $51.16 billion set in April 2014.
Australia annual exports to the US lifted from $13.54 billion to $13.57 billion in the year to February and just down from a record high of $13.69 billion in the year to October 2015. But the share of annual exports going to the US lifted from 5.44 per cent to a fresh 7-year high of 5.53 per cent.
Australia’s annual exports to India eased further from the two-year high of $10.45 billion set in the year to April 5 2016. 
<a href="/images/2016/04/6/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-06%20at%209.55.41%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/6/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-06%20at%209.55.41%20AM.png" alt="">
Consumer confidence
The weekly ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating fell by 1.1 points (1 per cent) to 113.4 in the week to April 4. Confidence is still 3.4 per cent higher over the year and above the average index value of 112 since 2014.
Two of the five components of the index fell in the latest week:
The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was up from +6 to +9;
The estimate of family finances over the next year was unchanged at +28;
Economic conditions over the next 12 months was down from -3 to -4;
Economic conditions over the next 5 years was down from +12 to +3;
The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was up from +30 points to +31 points.
New vehicle sales
According to the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI), Australian new motor vehicle sales totalled 104,512 in March, down 0.5 per cent over the year. In the year to March, 1,163,142 new vehicles were sold, just shy of the record 1,163,684 sold in the year to February.
Passenger vehicles in March were down 9.4 per cent on a year earlier while sales of sports utility vehicles (SUVs) were up by 8.3 per cent and other vehicles were up by 4.9 per cent.
In the year to March, SUVs represented 45.5 per cent of combined passenger car and SUV sales. SUVs accounted for a record 36.2 per cent of all vehicle sales in the 12 months to March.
What is the importance of the economic data?
The monthly International Trade in Goods and Services release from the Bureau of Statistics provides estimates on exports and imports of physical goods (such as coal, beef and computers) and services (such as travel receipts). The balance of goods and services (BOGS) is a narrower description of Australia’s external position than the current account estimates. The import data is a useful gauge of consumer and business spending while exports reflect global demand as well as domestic influences such as drought.
The ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly survey of consumer confidence closely tracks the monthly Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index but the former measure is a timelier assessment of consumer attitudes and is now closely tracked by the Reserve Bank.
The Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries releases estimates of car sales on the third business day of the month. The figures highlight the strength of consumer spending as well as conditions facing auto &amp; components companies.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
China dominates Australia’s trade relationships but the lift in trade with the US and India is encouraging.
At present there is no rush to move rates in any direction. And while the Reserve Bank policymakers may fret about the stronger Aussie dollar, CommSec believes interest rates will remain unchanged over 2016. Any need to cut rates would be as a result of a downturn in the global economy rather than due to domestic factors.
The Reserve Bank knows that the Aussie dollar is a two-edged sword. Consumers love a stronger currency as it means cheaper overseas travel and imported goods. But a stronger Aussie makes it more difficult for businesses, especially exporters and those in regional and rural regions.
Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a>
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Record annual trade deficit, exports to the US lifts: CommSec's Savanth Sebastian

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At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.0 per cent.
Recent information suggests that the global economy is continuing to grow, though at a slightly lower pace than earlier expected. While several advanced economies have recorded improved growth over the past year, conditions have become more difficult for a number of emerging market economies. China's growth rate has continued to moderate.
Commodity prices have generally increased a little recently, but this follows very substantial declines over the past couple of years. Australia's terms of trade remain much lower than they had been in recent years.
Sentiment in financial markets has improved recently after a period of heightened volatility. However, uncertainty about the global economic outlook and policy settings among the major jurisdictions continues. Funding costs for high-quality borrowers remain very low and, globally, monetary policy remains remarkably accommodative.
In Australia, the available information suggests that the economy is continuing to rebalance following the mining investment boom. Consistent with developments in the labour market, overall GDP growth picked up over 2015, despite the contraction in mining investment. The pace of lending to businesses has also picked up.
Inflation is quite low. Recent information has confirmed that growth in labour costs remains quite subdued. Given this, and with inflation also restrained elsewhere in the world, inflation in Australia is likely to remain low over the next year or two.
Given these conditions, it is appropriate for monetary policy to be accommodative. Low interest rates are supporting demand, while supervisory measures are working to emphasise prudent lending standards and so to contain risks in the housing market. Credit growth to households continues at a moderate pace, albeit with a changed composition between investors and owner-occupiers. The pace of growth in dwelling prices has moderated in Melbourne and Sydney and has remained mostly subdued in other cities.
The Australian dollar has appreciated somewhat recently. In part, this reflects some increase in commodity prices, but monetary developments elsewhere in the world have also played a role. Under present circumstances, an appreciating exchange rate could complicate the adjustment under way in the economy.
At today's meeting, the Board judged that there were reasonable prospects for continued growth in the economy, with inflation close to target. The Board therefore decided that the current setting of monetary policy remained appropriate.
Over the period ahead, new information should allow the Board to assess the outlook for inflation and whether the improvement in labour market conditions evident last year is continuing. Continued low inflation would provide scope for easier policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand.
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House price growth moderating or subdued: RBA Governor Glenn Stevens' April 2016 statement

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The RBA cash rate decision came out at 2.30 today with the decision to hold yet again. The bank's last move saw it go to 2 percent at the May 2015 meeting.
The bank says there is scope to cut if inflation remains low. The dollar dropped after poor trade figures today.
CoreLogic RP Data head of research Tim Lawless said with annual growth in Australia’s capital city dwelling values falling to the slowest pace in 31 months by the end of March 2016, the RBA is likely to be focussing on other aspects of the economic landscape in their interest rate deliberations.
"The higher Australian dollar, commodity prices, low inflation and global uncertainty were likely the primary discussion points during the Reserve Bank’s meeting today," he said.
"With some of the heat coming out of the housing market and inflation remaining low, the Reserve Bank has room to cut the cash rate later this year if they see a requirement to do so. 
"If we do see a lower cash rate later this year, chances are we won’t see the full rate cut passed on to mortgage rates due to the higher funding costs facing Australian lenders. Arguably, a cash rate cut wouldn’t have the same stimulatory effect on the housing market as what we saw from previous rate cuts in February and May last year."
LJ Hooker chief executive officer Grant Harrod, said today’s announcement to keep rates on hold was unsurprising even given the recent spike in the Australian dollar, however, he does not rule out a mid or late year reduction if needed. 
“The East Coast is holding up and we are not seeing any significant change in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane where listings remain tight,’’ Mr Harrod said.
“Good properties in highly sought after areas are selling well above their reserve or anticipated price, even though there is some indication the number of buyers may be lessening.
“It is however a different story in Western Australia where the market is in favour of buyers with an array of properties for sale to choose.”
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RBA April 2016 meeting holds rates at 2 percent

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Ms Emma Feduniw (also known as Emma Khalil) of Brisbane, Queensland, a former mortgage broker with AHL Investments Pty Ltd (trading as Aussie), has admitted through her solicitor to eight charges brought by ASIC. 
The charges related to the falsification of employment documents to secure approvals for home loans, submitted to Westpac.
ASIC's investigation found that between March 2013 and February 2014, Ms Feduniw submitted eight loan applications, totalling $2,720,400, containing false borrower employment letters. Of the eight loan applications, five were approved and disbursed, totalling $1,608,400. Ms Feduniw received commission on those five loans of $6,847.53.
The eight loan applications ranged in value from $250,000 to $480,000.
Ms Feduniw appeared before Beenleigh's Magistrates Court and through her solicitor admitted to providing documents knowing they were false or misleading.
ASIC Deputy Chairman Peter Kell said, 'The credit laws are designed to ensure borrowers do not take out loans they cannot afford. Actions by mortgage brokers to circumvent the laws, for their own financial benefit, erode trust and confidence in the mortgage broking industry and will not be tolerated'.
Ms Feduniw next appears in court on 3 June 2016 for sentencing.
The Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions (CDPP) is prosecuting the matter.
Background
Ms Feduniw was authorised to provide credit services as a credit representative to consumers from 1 July 2010 to 4 April 2014, when Aussie terminated her authorisation.
Ms Feduniw received her commission through Miga Loans Pty Ltd (ACN 106 962 467) a company controlled and owned by her.
Ms Feduniw was charged by ASIC under section 160D of the National Consumer Credit Protection Act 2009 whilst she was engaging in credit activity on behalf of Aussie. Section 160D makes it an offence for a person engaging in credit activities to give false or misleading information or documents to another person. She appeared in Court and pleaded guilty to the charges on 1 April 2016.
Ms Feduniw faces a maximum penalty of two years imprisonment or a fine, for each charge.
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