At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent and the interest rate paid on Exchange Settlement balances unchanged at 4.25&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent.

<h3>Inflation continues to moderate but remains high.</h3>

Recent information suggests that inflation continues to moderate, in line with the RBA’s latest forecasts. The headline monthly CPI indicator was steady at 3.4&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent over the year to January, with momentum easing over recent months, driven by moderating goods inflation. Services inflation remains elevated, and is moderating at a more gradual pace. The data are consistent with continuing excess demand in the economy and strong domestic cost pressures, both for labour and non-labour inputs.

Higher interest rates are working to establish a more sustainable balance between aggregate demand and supply in the economy. Accordingly, conditions in the labour market continue to ease gradually, although they remain tighter than is consistent with sustained full employment and inflation at target. Wages growth picked up a little further in the December quarter, but appears to have peaked with indications it will moderate over the year ahead. Nevertheless, this level of wages growth remains consistent with the inflation target only on the assumption that productivity growth increases to around its long-run average. Inflation is still weighing on people’s real incomes and household consumption growth is weak, as is dwelling investment.

<h3>The outlook remains highly uncertain</h3>

While there are encouraging signs that inflation is moderating, the economic outlook remains uncertain. The December quarter national accounts data confirmed growth has slowed. Household consumption growth remains particularly weak amid high inflation and the rise in interest rates. After recent declines, real incomes have stabilised and are expected to grow from here, which is expected to support growth in consumption later in the year.

Meanwhile, growth in unit labour costs remains very high. It has begun to moderate slightly as measured productivity growth has picked up in the past two quarters but whether this trend will be sustained is uncertain.

The central forecasts are for inflation to return to the target range of&nbsp;2–3&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent in 2025, and to the midpoint in 2026. Services price inflation is expected to decline gradually as demand moderates and growth in labour and non-labour costs eases. Employment is expected to continue to grow moderately, and the unemployment rate and the broader underutilisation rate are expected to increase a bit further.

While there have been favourable signs on goods price inflation abroad, services price inflation has remained persistent and the same could occur in Australia. There also remains a high level of uncertainty around the outlook for the Chinese economy and the implications of the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Domestically, there are uncertainties regarding the lags in the effect of monetary policy and how firms’ pricing decisions and wages will respond to the slower growth in the economy at a time of excess demand, and while the labour market remains tight. The outlook for household consumption also remains uncertain.

<h3>Returning inflation to target is the priority</h3>

Returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment. The Board needs to be confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards the target range. To date, medium-term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target and it is important that this remains the case.

While recent data indicate that inflation is easing, it remains high. The Board expects that it will be some time yet before inflation is sustainably in the target range. The path of interest rates that will best ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe remains uncertain and the Board is not ruling anything in or out. The Board will rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks. The Board will continue to pay close attention to developments in the global economy, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. The Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target.

To read the RBA statement, <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2024/mr-24-05.html">click here</a>.

Staff Writer

RBA holds rates at March meeting: Find out what the RBA said

Commentary by CoreLogic's&nbsp;Head of Residential Research Australia Eliza Owen

Today’s CPI results for the December quarter showed inflation has fallen once again, from 5.4% in September to 4.1%.

This marks the fourth consecutive quarter where inflation has declined on an annual basis, and the December result is below the 4.5% forecast made by the RBA&nbsp;last November.

Falling inflation reflects softer demand in the economy, with weakness showing up in&nbsp;retail trade, a slight&nbsp;fall in job vacancies&nbsp;and a&nbsp;gradual rise in unemployment&nbsp;from lows in late 2022.

But the good news about falling inflation is in its implications for monetary policy. The more inflation comes in under expectations, the firmer the case for interest rates remaining on hold next week, and coming down later this year.

A reduction in interest rates is likely to boost housing demand. As seen in the rental market, fundamental demand for housing is very strong, but demand for home purchases has been influenced by high interest costs and limited borrowing capacity.

The RBA would probably not consider more exuberance in the housing market an ideal scenario if interest rates comes down. However,&nbsp;established dwelling purchases do not feed&nbsp;directly into inflation measures, and other macroprudential tools can still be used to ensure housing lending remains prudent.

<h2>Housing measures in the CPI</h2>

Housing makes up around 22% of the CPI basket that is used to calculate inflation over time (in fact housing has the largest weighting of all components within the CPI calculation). The biggest sub-components of the housing measure are the change in the cost of newly constructed dwellings and major renovations by owner-occupiers, and the change in rents paid to landlords.

For the purchase of new homes, the CPI measure eased to 5.1%, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter and a peak of 20.7% in the year to September 2022. While the rate of increase is easing, residential construction remains a substantial contributor to inflation overall, and was the most significant contributor to inflation in the quarter overall. High labour and material costs continue to put pressure on the price of new homes.

Annual growth in the rent component of CPI was 7.3% in the December quarter. The annual change in the rent component of CPI has reduced from 7.6% in the September quarter, marking the first signs of rent inflation easing in two-and-a-half years. Historically, growth in the CoreLogic rent value index has been a leading indicator for the rent component of CPI. Given CoreLogic rent value growth peaked in early 2023, it is not surprising to see early signs of easing in growth of rent paid, but at 7.3%, annual growth is still well above the pre-COVID decade average of 2.3%.

<img alt="" class="CToWUd a6T" data-bit="iit" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" data-image-whitelisted="" id="m_7659537242992335207Picture_x0020_2" src="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0?ui=2&amp;ik=01bc5e25ad&amp;attid=0.0.2&amp;permmsgid=msg-f:1789567293936996842&amp;th=18d5d1f8e8c591ea&amp;view=fimg&amp;fur=ip&amp;sz=s0-l75-ft&amp;attbid=ANGjdJ8d5FAZGw-hH4fZat9ouQg5Z1lbMNm3-cT0gHsacwhnOmIJCDSAJj9tbRkSfhfRuVZm5HVCGb1Rb_jOI4A6_zGzay16WBPmCzC1gF7HKlkGRqDjfsp6q3_8Vsk&amp;disp=emb" style="cursor:pointer; outline:0px; width:587px; height:430px" tabindex="0" />

One thing to note about CPI measures is that it captures the change in goods and services across the combined capital cities market. CoreLogic rent values for the combined&nbsp;regional&nbsp;market of Australia have seen a marked decline in annual growth that far outweighs what has been seen in the capitals, down to 4.3% in 2023 (from a peak of 13.4% in the year to August 2021).

<h2>What’s the takeaway?</h2>

Inflation is still well above the RBA target range of 2-3%, but it is moving in the right direction, and it is falling faster than anticipated. The economic pain Australian households are feeling is working to unwind inflation, and firms up the case for interest rates to start&nbsp;falling&nbsp;some time this year.

Housing contributes a lot to high inflation through rent paid and the cost of new dwellings, but even these indicators are moving in the right direction. The rate of increase in rents paid is finally slowing, suggesting some hope for tenants that the rental market could turn a corner in 2024, which also indicated by CoreLogic rent measures.

Easing cost of living pressures should help to support an improvement in consumer sentiment, which has been holding in deeply pessimistic territory since mid-2022.&nbsp; High cost of living pressures and high interest rates have been the key factors holding sentiment close to recessionary lows. It's likely the lower than forecast inflation outcome for the December quarter, alongside a growing expectation of rate cuts later this year will help to lift consumer attitudes. If that is the case, we should expect housing activity to follow suit later this year.

Inflation drops in December quarter, consumer attitude likely to change later this year: CoreLogic

More than seven in ten (71%) real estate professionals expect interest rates to have the most significant influence on the housing market in 2024, according to a new survey by property data and analytics provider&nbsp;CoreLogic.

&nbsp;Their&nbsp;Decoding 2024: Real estate's trends and goals revealed&nbsp;survey delves into insights of more than 1,400 real estate professionals to uncover their 2024 outlook for the economic landscape and housing market.

The 71% of respondents who named fluctuations in interest rates as the primary driver of the Australian real estate market in 2024, were comprised of nearly three in five (59%) who strongly believe rising rates will have the most significant impact, while 12% anticipate falling rates to make waves to some degree.

<img alt="CoreLogic" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="4be73758-3723-4bdc-b5b4-f6cd72828a84" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202024-01-31%20at%206.47.19%20am.png?VersionId=Z33D2pAnUDc.fDBzi.fepOxAx_peTWRS" />

Despite these expected fluctuations in interest rates, the majority of survey respondents conveyed a positive sentiment toward the overall economy in 2024, with 57% expecting some economic growth, while a similar number (59%) tip home values to rise this year.

At the local level, low housing stock&nbsp;was identified by two in five (41%) respondents as the most significant stressor on their agency for the year ahead, while 38% stated high interest rates and inflation as their main concern.

CoreLogic&nbsp;Head of Residential Research Australia - Eliza Owen,&nbsp;said the survey results are relatively in line with where housing market performance is currently forecast by the major banks.

"The broad expectation for housing values in 2024 is that the market will still grow but at a slower rate than the 8.1% observed in&nbsp;CoreLogic's Home Value Index in 2023," Owen said.

"Growth in housing demand is expected to slow amid higher cost of living pressures, a higher tax take from bracket creep, and high interest rates. This means less savings to put toward housing purchases - indeed the latest national accounts data from the ABS showed the household savings ratio had fallen to its lowest level since 2007. Consumer sentiment remained very low at the start of 2024, which can also signal households being hesitant to make high-cost, high-commitment decisions."&nbsp;

<img alt="CoreLogic" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="512a483f-44ee-4693-9fe6-5693f70a9d00" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202024-01-31%20at%206.48.38%20am.png?VersionId=RIQDbwWv3hEj8NS8aw0EDpk5Vjxw2aHh" />

Owen says despite some of the headwinds for market demand, growth is still expected to be positive throughout 2024.

"Ongoing constraints in the construction sector are likely to keep a floor under home values, with the number of completions trending lower throughout 2023.

"There remains a strong mismatch in the supply and demand of dwellings across Australia, and anything that makes buying more accessible, such as a reduction in interest rates, would likely boost buyer numbers. With inflation currently trending just below RBA forecasts, the case for a cash rate reduction is firming up in 2024.”

Nearly half&nbsp;(46%) of respondents anticipate a rise in house prices this year of between 1-5%, while a further 13% expect an increase of more than 5%. One quarter (25%) believe prices will stay steady, with the remaining 16% predicting house price falls in 2024.

Interest rate changes tipped to shape 2024 real estate market as house prices tipped to rise: CoreLogic

The consecutive rate holds by the Reserve Bank of Australia has put a spring in the step of both homeowners and prospective property purchasers.

The official cash rate is now at 4.1 per cent, and it's expected it's either at the peak, or is one rate hike away. Three of the Big Four banks now expect the cash rate has peaked, with NAB expecting one more hike, in November.

Now attention has turned to when rates will start coming down. The majority of economists and experts don't think it will be until at least the second half of 2024, although CBA, the nation's biggest lender, believes it could be as early as March.

<h2>How will the cash rate holds affect the off the plan property market?</h2>

Everything has pointed to continued growth in the apartment market across nearly every capital city in the country. What's been holding back significant growth in some capitals has been the RBA's rate hikes over the last 15 months.

Immigration forecasts, low building approvals, problematic construction costs, land prices, and critically low supply suggests apartments can only get more expensive from here on in.

What seems to be a more difficult conversation in the off the plan apartment market is trying to get the buyer to understand what the cash rate is now doesn't really matter (that is of course unless the building is approaching completion.)

What's important in the off the plan market is what the cash rate will be when the building is complete. If construction is 12 months or so away from completion, then you might actually be buying into an environment where mortgage rates are dropping.

For the last 12 months or so, project marketers have had wave after wave of buyer come through their display suite doors, without any confidence in what they can spend, and what their mortgage repayments might look like come completion date.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson says the pause will particularly help buyers in the off the plan market.

"It's been hard for people to have a good understanding of what their borrowing capacity will be in the 12-18 months time when there has been such uncertainty around interest rate movement," Thompson says.

"Finance brokers have only been able to advise on what they can borrow now and this has been a moving target each month. I think we are getting to a time where people can start to forecast their finances with some confidence."&nbsp;

Thompson believes different sectors will react in different ways depending on circumstances.

"Younger and middle age demographics have been heavily impacted by reduced borrowing capacity and general uncertainty, whereas downsizers generally borrow very little or not at all to purchase so are less impacted."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5495 project_image_fid=190763]

<div style="text-align:start">
Scott Jessop, Sales and Marketing Director at Sunkin who have recently launched their sustainable Highett Common masterplan, said there's certainly a lot more buyer confidence since the first RBA pause, and he expects there to be even more now they've paused for a second month in a row.

"Purchasers are looking ahead to the next 12-24 months and thinking that we should be in a much more stable economic period&nbsp; than we are now, and having additional time prior to settling gives them an advantage to get themselves ready to have a mortgage over this period," Jessop says.

Jessop says, despite winter traditionally being a slower period for off the plan property, this year&nbsp;has remained reasonably strong across the board due to the low supply volumes currently on market.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108019 project_image_fid=213936]

"Generally speaking, a lot of purchasers are still comfortable with interest rates normalising following COVID, but the speed of the increases was the major issue which can affect people's foresight and future planning, they end up thinking in the now.

"On the flip side, we've still seen a lot of strong demand even with this going on which just goes to show the underlying strength of the property market at the moment."

Jessop believes there may only be a small window however for buyers to secure apartments at their current price.

"I really think there is a slight window of opportunity to get in and purchase now prior to the immigration influx, prior to interstate migration picking up again and drastically low current and future housing supplies."

It's a sentiment felt by property advisory giant Charter Keck Cramer, who believe off the plan apartments could rise by up to 25 per cent. A study across 10 Melbourne suburbs found some developers have already started putting their prices up by 15 to 25 per cent, and buyers are paying it.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="/news/vic/melbourne-off-the-plan-apartment-values-could-spike-25-per-cent-charter-keck-cramer">Melbourne off the plan apartment values could spike 25 per cent: Charter Keck Cramer</a>
</div>

For the last 12 months or so, project marketers have had wave after wave of buyer come through their display suite doors, without any confidence 

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