<p data-end="256" data-start="0"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sunland-group">Sunland Group</a> has officially lodged plans for its first Gold Coast apartment project since the departure of the Abedian family from the company three years ago, unveiling a new high-rise proposal for a prominent Broadbeach corner site on Old Burleigh Road.</p>

<p data-end="446" data-start="258">The application was submitted by an entity directed by Tom Jamieson, stepson of longtime Sunland leader Soheil Abedian, and Riaz Rezvanipour, brother-in-law of Sahba Abedian, Soheil’s son.</p>

<p data-end="645" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="448">Sunland acquired the 1,283 sqm site on the corner of Old Burleigh Road and Armrick Avenue for $9.5 million late last year and is now seeking approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/99-101-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">42-storey tower with 81 apartments</a>.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Sunland Group returns to Broadbeach with new Old Burleigh Road tower plans" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fea2946d-90ee-4cfc-babe-2a8ad5db2cb6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pers.png?VersionId=BV0fihJw31nDIQ8ozY_h3GbS8mxDyhnm" /></p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/contreras-earl-architecture">Contreras Earl Architecture</a>, the proposed tower at 99-101 Old Burleigh Road would deliver a predominantly larger-format apartment mix aimed at the owner-occupier market. Plans include 17 two-bedroom apartments, 55 three-bedroom apartments, and nine four-bedroom residences across 35 residential levels.</p>

<p>The development also incorporates three basement levels, four podium parking levels, two levels of communal recreation facilities, and rooftop plant and equipment. A total of 189 car spaces are proposed, significantly exceeding the 90 spaces required under the planning scheme.</p>

<p>The architecture adopts a sculpted, curvilinear form, with deep wraparound balconies and integrated landscaping intended to soften the tower’s vertical expression. The planning report states the building’s “slender footprint/form provides a complimentary yet varied built form within the local streetscape” and contributes to “a varied, yet ordered skyline.”</p>

<p data-end="626" data-start="350">Contreras Earl noted in its Architectural Statement that from the early stages, the project addressed a fundamental challenge: how to accommodate the required residential yield while avoiding the conventional model of a tower sitting on a rigid, fully resolved parking podium.</p>

<p data-end="928" data-start="628">“The most direct response would have been to consolidate parking into a singular, flat podium and extrude a repetitive tower above,” the statement said. “While efficient, this approach would result in a consolidated built form with limited engagement with the surrounding landscape and public realm.”</p>

<p data-end="1147" data-start="930">Instead, the conventional podium model was “deliberately rejected”. The architects described the base of the building as “a landscaped architectural condition where structure, planting and circulation are integrated”.</p>

<p data-end="1510" data-start="1149">“Rather than presenting a continuous built mass, the base of the building is articulated through a series of concrete planter elements that organise the podium into a fragmented system,” the statement said. “This approach reduces the perceived bulk of the lower levels while establishing a more permeable interface with the streetscape and adjacent open space.”</p>

<p data-end="1510" data-start="1149"><img alt="Sunland" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="923fad8d-c960-4527-8fbe-975cf1ddf88d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-25%20at%2010.32.03%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=pngwb0hYOIUpq9vDw6F2EsOiVuHF3DiX" /></p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>The site sits within the High Density Residential Zone and inside the City of Gold Coast’s unrestricted “HX” building height area, where the planning framework anticipates intensified residential development tied to the expanding light rail corridor. The planning report notes the area is undergoing “transition toward more intense development forms” given its proximity to Broadbeach, Surfers Paradise, and high-frequency public transport infrastructure.</p>

<p>Positioned directly opposite Broadbeach Park and within walking distance of Florida Gardens light rail station, the development would sit among a rapidly evolving stretch of Old Burleigh Road that has become one of the Gold Coast’s most active apartment development corridors.</p>

<p>The application joins a growing pipeline of luxury residential projects reshaping Broadbeach, including nearby developments by 5Point Projects, Polycell, and Graya.</p>

<p>The planning report argues the project contributes toward the Gold Coast’s long-term housing targets under the South East Queensland Regional Plan, which forecasts the need for more than 100,000 additional high-rise dwellings across the city by 2046.</p>

<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-4" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:84a2af5e-d7cf-4ddf-922a-f4d44d6c6caa-1" data-turn-id-container="request-WEB:84a2af5e-d7cf-4ddf-922a-f4d44d6c6caa-1" dir="auto">
<p data-end="305" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="0">The Abedian family departed Sunland Group in late 2023, ending a four-decade association with the company, and subsequently established the private development firm Abedian &amp; Co. The group is currently delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/greenmount-residences-cnr-hill-street-and-marine-parade-coolangatta-qld-4225">Greenmount Residences</a> at Rainbow Bay and recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/18-mary-avenue-14-18-mary-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4218">18 Mary Avenue</a> in Broadbeach.</p>
</section>


Joel Robinson

First look: Sunland Group returns to Broadbeach new apartment market with new Old Burleigh Road tower plans

<p style="text-align:start">The Minns Labor Government has established the new Bays West Delivery Authority to lead the development&nbsp;of the Bays West Precinct and Blackwattle Bay Precinct.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The Authority is charged with creating Sydney’s newest precinct, a thriving, connected, sustainable hub with White Bay Power Station as its cultural heart. Its vision is to build on the area’s natural, cultural and industrial history to shape a vibrant new neighbourhood.</p>

<p>The precinct will deliver up to 8,500 well-located homes, including a minimum of 10 per cent affordable and essential worker homes. Combine new housing with public open space, opening public access to the waterfront for the first time in more than 100 years, while retaining important deep-water facilities to support Sydney’s working harbour.</p>

<p>Located just minutes from the Sydney CBD and connected to a world-class metro, ferry, walking and cycling links, the Bays West precinct will rebalance housing growth towards well-serviced inner-city locations and help tackle the state’s housing crisis.</p>

<p>The Bays West Delivery Authority,&nbsp;an agency of the Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure, will report to the NSW Minister for Lands and Property who already has oversight of major precinct renewal projects including at Blackwattle Bay and Barangaroo.</p>

<p>As part of the broader Bays West transformation, the Minns Government recently announced that a proposal from Lendlease to redevelop part of the Bays West Precinct has progressed to Stage 2 of the NSW Government’s unsolicited proposals process.</p>

<p><img alt="Sydney" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2ed71eb9-d8e8-4fa7-b9d1-de4531dcf2f3" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-25%20at%209.42.31%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=IDryFIbped9SNDg72LEN_EecvhUsOPvp" /></p>

<p>The Minns Labor Government has also confirmed the Bays West precinct will have a new suburb name. This will be the first major suburb built in close proximity to Sydney’s CBD in decades and will encompass the area currently being referred to as Bays West, including Glebe Island and the White Bay Power Station. Served by a new Metro station just five minutes from the CBD, it will become one of the most populous suburbs in the Inner West and one of Sydney’s premier cultural destinations.</p>

<p>An early works program is taking shape, which&nbsp;includes the first stages of an international design competition.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The aim of the Bays West&nbsp;International&nbsp;Design Competition is to&nbsp;ensure design excellence is embedded in the project from the start. The competition will deliver an&nbsp;urban framework that defines the character, ambition and long-term identity of&nbsp;this&nbsp;former industrial precinct as it transitions to a vibrant, inclusive and sustainable residential&nbsp;neighbourhood.</p>

<p>The competition will be led by the Bays West Delivery Authority in partnership with Government Architect NSW.&nbsp;</p>

<p>It will launch with an invitation for a global Expressions of Interest, before moving to an invitation-only stage that will be assessed by a panel that&nbsp;will provide advice to Cabinet who will select a winner.</p>

<p>Premier of NSW, Chris Minns said the establishment of the new Authority is the first step in transforming the Bays West precinct into a vibrant, livable suburb minutes from the Sydney CBD and two stops from Hunter St Station on the Metro West line.</p>

<p>“The Authority will deliver well-located homes close to the heart of the city and integrate the new precinct with Blackwattle Bay and the new Sydney Fish Market.</p>

<p>“This is a generational opportunity to build a new suburb on the city’s edge and open the harbour foreshore to the public for the first time in a century.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>Minister for Lands and Property Steve Kamper said the new Bays West Delivery Authority established by the Minns Government will turbocharge the development of Sydney’s newest suburb.</p>

<p>“The Authority is working at a record pace to deliver an international design competition, planning pathways and a financial model so that this development benefits Sydney with well-designed homes in a central location, close to public transport, jobs, entertainment and essential services.</p>

<p>“If we want Sydney to stay liveable and affordable, we need to be bold about using underutilised government-owned land to deliver homes for the future while making sure essential working harbour functions can be accommodated.”</p>


Bays West Delivery Authority established to "turbocharge" Sydney’s newest suburb

<p>Around 400 additional homes could be built at Southwark Grounds on Port Road, lifting total site capacity from 1300 to around 1700 dwellings.</p>

<p>A recently approved code amendment would allow apartment towers of up to 14 storeys in some areas of Renewal SA’s redevelopment of the former West End Brewery.</p>

<p>Renewal SA Acting Chief Executive Shane Wingard said he welcomed the code amendment, with the increase in heights and homes making a positive impact on the supply of high-quality, well-connected housing close to the city.</p>

<p>“By going higher across some parts of Southwark Grounds, we are adding a substantial number of very well-located homes with little impact on project delivery time or planned open space,” Mr Wingard said.</p>

<p>Since the project officially launched in 2025, Mr Wingard said more than 12,000 enquiries had been received about living at Southwark Grounds.</p>

<p>“The very strong early interest we’ve seen since homes were first released in the precinct reinforces our plans to create more housing opportunities,” he said.</p>

<p>The Southwark Grounds code amendment was launched in December last year, with community engagement undertaken over five weeks from January.</p>

<p>It proposed increasing maximum building heights from eight to 14 storeys on the eastern section of Southwark Grounds, and to 12 storeys across the remainder of the site, with minimum building heights ranging from two to four storeys.</p>

<p>The code amendment was implemented through an Early Commencement policy in late January, allowing developers to quickly explore the viability of increased height and housing yield while other planning processes continue.</p>

<p>One of the first developers delivering apartment sites have already finalised redesigns to increase the number of apartments following the code amendment.</p>

<p>Samaras’ development adjacent to the future Colonel Light Park is now planning to deliver 125 apartments across 11 storeys, significantly greater than original plans of around 50 apartments across four storeys.</p>

<p>The developer is also exploring the potential for additional affordable housing outcomes.</p>

<p>Most of the apartments at Southwark Grounds will be delivered within a master-planned precinct on a large parcel of land on the eastern portion of the site, covering around two-thirds of its 8.4 hectares.</p>

<p>Wingard said detailed precinct planning over the coming months may identify further opportunities to increase yield further that could see total apartment numbers at Southwark Grounds, exceed this number.</p>

<p>Affordable homes at Southwark Grounds will also see a net increase, with Renewal SA maintaining its commitment to a minimum of 20 per cent affordable housing across the development.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Civil works have begun across the site, with construction under way on the first new roads surrounding a townhouse precinct in the south‑west corner of Southwark Grounds. This includes Renewal SA’s 17 Founder’s Row homes, which are on track for completion by Christmas.</p>

<p>“We expect to have people living at Southwark Grounds by the end of the year, so delivering roads and public spaces for those residents is among our highest priorities.”</p>

<p>Construction of 40 townhouses off Anderson Street, known as West Village and being delivered by Contour, is forecast to begin in mid‑2026. Kolabb’s Anderson Lane development will follow shortly after, delivering a further 26 townhouses.</p>

<p>Southwark Grounds is a state government‑led urban renewal project now set to deliver around 1,700 homes over the next decade.</p>

<p>Homes will be supported by a supermarket, a range of retail and hospitality offerings anchored by a revitalised Walkerville Brew Tower, a childcare centre, car parking and well‑connected public spaces.</p>


400 new homes planned for Adelaide's former West End Brewery site

<p>Brisbane developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/cavcorp">Cavcorp</a> has lodged plans for a new mixed-use residential development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/55-wyandra-street-teneriffe-qld-4005">55 Wyandra Street</a>, Teneriffe, anchored by an 85-metre public laneway designed to reconnect the suburb’s riverfront with the Gasworks precinct.</p>

<p>The buildings, known as Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane, would replace the existing Queensland Cotton head office site with a 15-storey residential tower transitioning to eight storeys toward Helen Street. The project has been designed by Plazibat Architects and lodged as a code assessable development application for 93 apartments across a 3,401 sqm mixed-use site within the Newstead and Teneriffe Waterfront neighbourhood plan.</p>

<p>Central to the scheme is the transformation of an existing service easement into a publicly accessible cross-block connection linking Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the new laneway will act as both a pedestrian shortcut and a landscaped civic space between the Teneriffe Riverwalk, ferry terminal, and Gasworks precinct.</p>

<p><img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="26e7f058-b065-4de8-b13d-a2b8cb64dfcc" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/bldg.png?VersionId=sELS0ZKYi361oYipUa1BIKfe_.DLZoFV" /></p>

<p>“The revised proposal delivers a legacy public-realm cross-block link, permanently secured for community use, transforming an existing private easement into a safe, high-quality pedestrian connection between the Teneriffe heritage riverwalk and the Gasworks–Long Island precinct,” the planning report states.</p>

<p>The laneway will sit beneath a large subtropical loggia integrated into the podium levels of the development. The design incorporates deep landscaping, water gardens, lobby spaces, business lounges, and ground-floor apartments to create what Cavcorp describes as a climate-responsive “urban verandah.”</p>

<p>The tower itself has been designed as a slender form with recessed floorplates and curved translucent corners inspired by contemporary Japanese architecture. The building height aligns with the Commercial Road precinct controls, which permit towers up to 15 storeys within proximity to Longland Street.</p>

<p><img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a8a17d40-43b6-4718-b3fd-67676fcbb485" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pers%202_1.png?VersionId=i3VwDtp5AmL_8InW7w4qRbDFEpb744Jt" /></p>

<p>The project will comprise a mix of larger-format apartments aimed at owner-occupiers, downsizers, and families. The proposed apartment mix includes 11 loggia apartments across the lower levels, 50 four-bedroom Sky-Terrace apartments from levels three to seven, and 32 Sky-Pool Homes occupying the upper tower levels. The Sky-Pool Homes will feature private thermal plunge pools integrated into oversized balconies.</p>

<p>According to the application, the apartments are intended to reinterpret the scale and character of Teneriffe’s woolstore conversions and Queensland homes within a vertical residential format.</p>

<p>“The sky-pool homes build on Cavcorp’s previous projects and introduce a distinct apartment typology to Teneriffe, informed by both local and international precedent and responding to an identified market demand for enhanced safety, space and amenity,” the planning submission notes.</p>

<p>A major focus of the proposal is its five-level wellness and lifestyle offering, extending from the basement through to the rooftop.</p>

<p>Amenities proposed include a rooftop Swim &amp; Racquet Club with a 25-metre Olympic lap pool and tennis court, coworking spaces and libraries, golf simulators, wine storage, concierge facilities, business lounges, pet wash areas, and rooftop longevity-focused wellness spaces with spas, outdoor fitness zones, and landscaped terraces.</p>

<p><img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="944b352c-49b9-4247-a4c6-5967b4b69fda" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/amenity.png?VersionId=Ed_qKjAtMwFT.5gfl3jiA9QwdWxSMsaX" /></p>

<p>All parking will be concealed within basement levels accessed from Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the deep-basement engineering approach allows the entire ground plane to prioritise landscaping, pedestrian movement, and active frontage rather than vehicle infrastructure.</p>

<p>The development continues Cavcorp’s concentration in Newstead and Teneriffe, where the Brisbane developer has delivered a number of apartment projects including Lucent, Le Bain, and Luminare, as well as the Long Island Wellness Precinct nearby. Several of those projects have received national design and architecture awards, including recognition under Brisbane’s “Buildings that Breathe” program.</p>


Cavcorp unveils wellness-focused Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane apartment buildings

<p>Focus Group Investments has lodged plans for a new apartment development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/64-70-hanover-street-fitzroy-vic-3065">64–70 Hanover Street</a> in Fitzroy, seeking to utilise the Victorian Government’s recently introduced Great Design Fast Track pathway to accelerate approvals for the project.</p>

<p>The proposal is among the latest developments to emerge through the state-led initiative, which was established to fast-track well-designed residential projects in activity centres and transport-connected inner-city locations. The pathway allows qualifying developments that meet elevated design and housing benchmarks to bypass traditional council planning timeframes and instead be assessed directly by the Department of Transport and Planning.</p>

<p>Designed by SJB, the development will comprise a mix of apartments above activated lower levels, with a strong focus on architectural articulation, landscaping, and communal amenity. The design response seeks to balance the industrial character of Richmond’s former warehouse precincts with a more contemporary residential form.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="abea51cc-d85b-479e-9aef-a589f3b37ca7" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/ground.png?VersionId=e1Kf8EyPWwyiVumtqQ4rM5S4GpOR3CCz" /></p>

<p>Proposed are 63 new dwellings, a wide ranging mix of studio, one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments, and townhouses and duplexes. They will be spread across a part-three, part-eight storey building.</p>

<p>The Planning and Urban Context Report by Tract says the development is of an "exemplary architectural standard" and has been carefully crafted by SJB Architects.</p>

<p>"Dwellings&nbsp;will benefit from excellent access to natural light, cross-ventilation opportunities and extensive communal space," the report noted.</p>

<p>The architectural material highlights the project’s integration of landscaped elements and communal spaces throughout the building. The proposal also incorporates sustainability initiatives aligned with the Victorian Government’s push for higher-performing apartment developments under the fast-track program.</p>

<p>The Great Design Fast Track was unveiled by the Victorian Government in 2024 as part of a broader housing supply strategy aimed at accelerating the delivery of new homes. Projects assessed through the pathway must demonstrate high-quality architecture, sustainability outcomes, and housing diversity while being located close to public transport and existing infrastructure.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="afdbe834-8dc4-4a77-a943-ba07bc927348" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/site_11.png?VersionId=0J657j.TaChAZfp93wqJYBTqSsnREJx2" /></p>

<p>Focus Group, founder and led by Paul De Lutiis, is increasingly active across Melbourne’s inner suburbs, targeting well-connected urban renewal locations suited to medium and higher-density residential development. The Fitzroy proposal continues that strategy, leveraging the area’s strong transport links, established retail amenity, and proximity to the CBD.</p>

<p>Fitzroy has been one of the most popular spots for developers and buyers in recent years. The likes of PACE Development Group, SMA Projects, Crema Group and Chapter Group, currently selling projects in the suburb.</p>


First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Fitzroy apartments

<p>Sydney’s property market is known for high prices, competitive bidding, and mounting pressure on first home buyers. But change is on the horizon.</p>

<p>From late 2025, eligible first home buyers in New South Wales will have access to a new federal government initiative aimed at addressing affordability: the Help to Buy Scheme.&nbsp;</p>

<h2>What is the Help to Buy Scheme?</h2>

<p>The program introduces a shared equity model intended to reduce the upfront cost of entering the property market, particularly in high-demand urban areas such as Sydney.</p>

<p>The scheme operates under a shared ownership structure in which the federal government takes an equity stake of up to 40 per cent for new homes, or 30 per cent for existing dwellings. This arrangement allows eligible buyers to significantly reduce their loan size and avoid the added cost of Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI).</p>

<p>Under this model, purchasers can enter the property market with as little as a two per cent deposit, well below the traditional 10 to 20 per cent usually required. The government’s contribution is not a loan but a co-ownership stake in the property. As such, there is no interest or rent charged on its portion.</p>

<p>Because the government’s equity combined with the buyer’s deposit typically meets or exceeds the 20 per cent threshold, LMI does not apply. The remaining balance, generally between 60 and 70 per cent of the property’s value, is financed through a standard home loan with a participating lender.</p>

<p>The government's equity in the property remains in place until the buyer chooses to repay it voluntarily or until the property is sold. Buyers can buy back the government’s share over time, in increments of at least five per cent, depending on their financial situation.</p>

<p>There is no fixed repayment timeline, but the amount to be repaid will be based on the property's market value at the time of repayment, not the original purchase price.</p>

<h2>How do you qualify for the&nbsp;Help to Buy Scheme?</h2>

<p>To qualify for the Help to Buy Scheme, applicants must meet the following conditions:</p>

<ul>
	<li>Be an Australian citizen at least 18 years of age.</li>
	<li>Be a first-home buyer who does not currently own property.</li>
	<li>Intend to live in the property as their primary residence.</li>
	<li>Earn less than $100,000 per year for individuals, or $160,000 for couples.</li>
	<li>Purchase a property within the regional price caps, currently $950,000 in Sydney, though this is expected to rise to approximately $1.3 million ahead of the program’s launch.</li>
</ul>

<p>While the Help to Buy Scheme does not solve affordability challenges across the board, it does offer a more accessible pathway for a defined segment of the market, particularly younger buyers with moderate incomes who have been priced out of traditional lending routes.</p>

<p>The scheme is expected to commence in NSW in late 2025, as part of a national rollout.</p>


Under the new model, purchasers can enter the property market with as little as a two per cent deposit, well below the traditional 10 to 20 per cent usually required

Help to Buy Scheme: What first home buyers in NSW need to know

<p>The First Home Owners Grant (FHOG) is a government initiative designed to help eligible first-time home buyers by offering financial assistance towards the purchase or construction of a new home.</p>

<p>While the FHOG is a nationwide program, it is administered separately by each state and territory, meaning the eligibility criteria, grant amounts, and property requirements can vary depending on your location. This means that the amount available and the conditions attached to the grant will differ, so it is important to check the specific guidelines for your state or territory.</p>

<p>It’s important to note that the FHOG is just one of several incentives available to first home buyers. In most states and territories, the grant is not linked to stamp duty exemptions or concessions, with the exception of the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). The FHOG is typically a one-off payment, reducing the overall cost of purchasing or building a new home before any stamp duty concessions are applied.</p>

<p>Below, we provide a breakdown of the First Home Owner Grants available across Australia, outlining the specific details for each state and territory.</p>

<h2>New South Wales First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong data-end="252" data-start="225">First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Offers a $10,000 grant for new homes valued up to $600,000. For land purchases and owner-builders, the threshold extends to $750,000.</p>

<p><strong data-end="413" data-start="389">Stamp Duty Benefits:</strong> Provides full stamp duty exemption for homes valued up to $800,000, with concessions available for properties up to $1 million.</p>

<h2>Victoria South Wales First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Provides a $10,000 grant for first-home buyers purchasing or building new homes valued up to $750,000.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Benefits</strong>: Offers full stamp duty exemption for properties up to $600,000, with concessions available up to $750,000.</p>

<h2>Queensland First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong data-end="920" data-start="893">First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Offers $30,000 for contracts signed between 20 November 2023 and 30 June 2025. The FHOG applies to new homes valued up to $750,000.</p>

<p><strong data-end="1162" data-start="1135">Stamp Duty Concessions:</strong> Provides additional concessions for properties valued up to $800,000.</p>

<h2>Western Australia First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Offers a $10,000 grant for new homes valued up to $750,000 in the southern regions and up to $1 million in the northern regions.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Concessions:</strong> Available for homes valued up to $600,000 for transactions entered into on or after 9 May 2024.</p>

<h2>Australian Capital Territory First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong data-end="1617" data-start="1590">First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Replaced by the Home Buyer Concession Scheme, offering full stamp duty concessions for eligible buyers.</p>

<h2>South Australia First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Provides up to $15,000 for new homes, including houses, apartments, and townhouses. As of 6 June 2024, there is no property value cap for eligibility.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Relief:</strong> Available for new homes and vacant land purchases.</p>

<h2>Tasmania First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant</strong>: Offers a $10,000 grant for new homes and off the plan purchases.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Exemption</strong>: Between 18 February 2024 and 30 June 2026, first home buyers of established homes valued up to $750,000 receive a full exemption on property transfer duty.</p>

<h2>Northern Territory First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant:</strong> The Northern Territory provides a $10,000 grant for new homes only. Additional government grants and concessions are available for first home buyers.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Exemption</strong>: The only stamp duty exemption available to property buyers is the House and Land Package Exemption (HLPE).</p>

<p><em>Eligibility criteria and application processes differ across states. Prospective buyers should refer to their respective state revenue offices for full details on grant availability, conditions, and additional concessions.</em></p>


Every First Home Owner Grant for new property by state

<p>In the ever-evolving landscape of sustainable architecture and environmentally conscious design, systems and ratings in place can help determine the energy efficiency of residential buildings in Australia.</p>

<p>Australia has multiple building rating systems that evaluate energy efficiency and sustainability in existing and new building designs.</p>

<p>Some systems assess individual building components, while others provide an overall rating for the entire structure.</p>

<p>A rating system ensures that homes are comfortable and energy-efficient, whether you are buying, renovating, or building.</p>

<p>NatHERS (Nationwide House Energy Rating Scheme) is a common way for new homes to meet energy efficiency requirements.</p>

<p>As new developments continue to shape the urban environment, understanding NatHERS ratings becomes essential for developers and homeowners. This article delves into the concept of NatHERS ratings, their significance, and how they contribute to creating energy-efficient homes.</p>

<h2>What is NatHERS?</h2>

<p>NatHERS is a national initiative implemented by the Australian government to promote energy efficiency in residential buildings. The scheme aims to provide a standardised method for assessing the thermal performance of homes, considering factors such as insulation, orientation, ventilation, and building materials.&nbsp;</p>

<p>NatHERS ratings are the most common way new homes meet the National Construction Code's (NCC's) minimum energy efficiency requirements.&nbsp;</p>

<p>NatHERS assessments provide thermal and whole-home ratings for new homes, townhouses, and apartments.</p>

<p>The rating helps evaluate the energy performance of buildings, guides homeowners and developers to make informed decisions about the energy efficiency of their properties, and encourages the construction of more sustainable, comfortable, and cost-effective homes.</p>

<h2>How NatHERS Ratings Work</h2>

<p>NatHERS ratings are determined through four accredited software tools (AccuRate, BERS Pro, FirstRate5, HERO) using a calculation engine CSIRO developed to predict building temperature based on various factors.</p>

<p>The tools can model complex effects of building mass, insulation, window size, and other elements.</p>

<p>The outcome is a star rating that reflects the building's overall thermal efficiency, indicating how well it can maintain a comfortable indoor temperature without excessive reliance on heating or cooling systems.</p>

<p>The star rating scale ranges from 0 to 10, with a 6-star rating being the minimum requirement for compliance with the National Construction Code (NCC).&nbsp;</p>

<p>Achieving a higher star rating demonstrates a commitment to energy efficiency and sustainability, as the building is better equipped to minimise its environmental impact and reduce long-term energy costs.</p>

<p>Anyone can use NatHERS tools, but accredited assessors can provide certified ratings and professional advice.</p>

<h2>Benefits of Higher NatHERS Ratings</h2>

<p><strong>Energy Efficiency:</strong> Buildings with higher NatHERS ratings are more energy-efficient, requiring less heating and cooling energy. This reduces the structure's carbon footprint and lowers occupants' energy bills.</p>

<p><strong>Cost Savings:</strong> Homes with higher NatHERS ratings are generally more energy-efficient, resulting in reduced energy consumption for heating and cooling. This translates to lower energy bills for homeowners, making sustainable living environmentally friendly and economically viable in the long run.</p>

<p><strong>Environmental Impact:</strong> Lower energy consumption directly translates to a reduced environmental impact. Buildings with higher NatHERS ratings contribute to the overall goal of mitigating climate change by lowering greenhouse gas emissions associated with heating and cooling systems.</p>

<p><strong>Improved Comfort: </strong>Buildings with high NatHERS ratings offer better thermal comfort to occupants. Proper insulation, well-designed ventilation, and optimal orientation maintain a consistent and comfortable indoor temperature, providing occupants with a more enjoyable and healthier space.</p>

<p><strong>Market Value and Desirability:</strong> Higher NatHERS ratings can enhance the market value of a property. As energy efficiency becomes a more significant consideration for homebuyers, a well-rated building may attract a premium price and stand out in the real estate market.</p>

<p><strong>Compliance with Building Codes:</strong> NatHERS ratings are a vital component of the National Construction Code (NCC), and compliance with these ratings is often a mandatory requirement for new developments. Local councils and planning authorities may set minimum energy efficiency standards that must be met to obtain development approval.</p>


The Nationwide House Energy Rating Scheme (NatHERS) is a crucial initiative shaping the future of energy-efficient, resilient, and cost-effective homes. With its recent upgrades, NatHERS has evolved into a world-leading tool for the building sector, supporting the global commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

Staff Writer

What is a NatHERS rating in new off the plan apartment developments?

<p>Mixed-use developments have gained significant popularity across Australia in recent years due to their unique blend of residential, commercial, and recreational spaces.</p>

<p>Unlike traditional single-purpose developments, mixed-use projects offer a harmonious integration of various functions within a single locale.</p>

<p>Residential units seamlessly coexist with commercial establishments, retail outlets, dining venues, entertainment hubs, and recreational facilities, with the combination not only enhances convenience but also fosters a vibrant lifestyle and a sense of community.</p>

<h3>Convenience and accessibility</h3>

<p>Mixed-use developments are designed with convenience in mind. They often integrate residential units with commercial spaces, retail outlets, restaurants, and recreational facilities, creating a self-contained community.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=114215 project_image_fid=204874]</p>

<p>The proximity allows residents to enjoy the convenience of having essential amenities and services within walking distance. Whether it's grabbing a cup of coffee, going grocery shopping, or accessing healthcare services, everything is conveniently located, saving residents time and effort.</p>

<h3>Vibrant lifestyle and community</h3>

<p>One of the major advantages of mixed-use developments is the vibrant lifestyle they offer. With a diverse range of amenities and communal spaces, residents have ample opportunities to interact, socialise, and build a sense of community.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=107714 project_image_fid=214122]</p>

<p>The presence of parks, community centres, and shared spaces fosters a lively atmosphere, encouraging residents to engage in various activities and events. The vibrant lifestyle within these developments creates a unique sense of belonging and camaraderie among the residents.</p>

<h3>Potential for higher rental yields and property value appreciation</h3>

<p>Mixed-use developments tend to attract a broad range of tenants and buyers due to their versatile nature. This high demand can result in higher rental yields for investors and potentially lead to property value appreciation over time.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=139989 project_image_fid=212887]</p>

<p>The integration of commercial and retail spaces attracts businesses, which can provide a stable rental income stream. Additionally, the popularity of mixed-use developments often drives up property values, making them a potentially lucrative investment in the long term.</p>

<h3>Enhanced security and maintenance</h3>

<p>Mixed-use developments typically have comprehensive security measures in place. With controlled access points, CCTV surveillance, and professional security staff, residents can enjoy enhanced safety and peace of mind.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108019 project_image_fid=212658]</p>

<p>Additionally, these developments often have dedicated maintenance teams responsible for the upkeep of common areas, landscaping, and infrastructure. This ensures that the overall appearance and functionality of the development are well-maintained, creating a pleasant living environment for residents.</p>

<h3>Live-work-play balance</h3>

<p>One of the key attractions of mixed-use developments is the ability to achieve a desirable live-work-play balance. The integration of residential and commercial spaces allows residents to live closer to their workplaces, reducing commuting time and improving work-life balance.</p>

<p>The proximity to various amenities and recreational facilities encourages an active and healthy lifestyle. Residents can easily access fitness centres, parks, restaurants, and entertainment options, all within the same development, leading to a more fulfilling and convenient way of life.</p>


alisonwarters@gmail.com

The top five reasons to buy in a mixed-use development

<p style="line-height: 1.38;">When buying a property, everyone needs to be aware of the additional costs that come as part of the buying process.</p>

<p style="line-height: 1.38;">Often the largest outlay, after the deposit which goes to the bank, is stamp duty.</p>

<h2 style="line-height: 1.38;">What is Stamp Duty?</h2>

<p>Stamp duty is an extra tax to pay the government when you buy land, a property, and other certain assets.</p>

<p>It happens when the legal ownership is transferred. It can also be known as property transfer duty or transfer duty.</p>

<p style="line-height: 1.38;"><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="415" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/C32BWkB5--c" title="YouTube video player" width="660"></iframe></p>

<h2>Who pays Stamp Duty?</h2>

<p>In some circumstances, you may get an exemption. For some states, you won’t have to pay for stamp duty if you are a first home buyer or a pensioner for houses under a particular price. There are also stamp duty concessions, where you may be entitled to a discount.</p>

<h2>How much does Stamp Duty cost?</h2>

<p>Each state has different rules which affect how much you need to pay. These rules can affect the rate you pay, and the timeframe you will need to pay in. Before you buy land or a property, make sure you check the up-to-date information for your state’s stamp duty.</p>

<p>You can use a free stamp duty calculator online to see approximately how much you’ll need to pay. Find out if you’re eligible for an exemption by enquiring on a project via Urban!</p>

<p>Overall, the stamp duty you need to pay will depend on:</p>

<ul>
	<li aria-level="1">How much your land/property is worth</li>
	<li aria-level="1">Where your land/property is located</li>
	<li aria-level="1">What type of land/property it is</li>
</ul>

<p style="line-height:1.38">Want to find out more? <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@UrbanAustralia?utm_source=YouTube&amp;utm_medium=Video&amp;utm_campaign=Subscribe&amp;utm_id=Subscribe">Subscribe to our YouTube channel</a> for more property videos.</p>


Ellen Walker

Off-the-plan property explained: What is stamp duty?

<p>Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.</p>

<p>They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.</p>

<p>They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.</p>

<p>Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" /></p>

<p>Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor</p>

<p>Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" /></p>

<p>Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>​</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p>The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.</p>

<p>With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.</p>


Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

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<div>When it comes to property investment I generally favour the largest capital city housing markets, which in Australia tend to have more diversified economies, the greatest population and employment growth, tighter supply, and less prime location land available for release. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>One of the <em>regional</em> success stories of the past half decade has been a town - or a "city" as you would say in Australia - that I went to visit this weekend.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>With a population of around 162,000 it is the 16th largest city in Australia, and the largest inland city after the nation's capital, Canberra...</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><span>The city I am referring to, of course, is <strong>Toowoomba</strong> in Queensland, to the west of Brisbane.</span></div>
<div><span><br>Queensland is the one state in Australia which has a number of sizeable regional cities, and there are four others that are larger again than Toowoomba: Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Townsville, and arguably Cairns (depending upon where you draw the boundary). </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div class="separator"><span>The <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2014/07/x" target="_blank">Grattan Institute</a> found in a 2014 study that Australia's capital cities have become vital to economic activity, driving most of the economy in every state .</span></div>
<div class="separator"><span> </span></div>
<div class="separator"><span>For regional centres, Grattan found that it is their proximity to the CBD which largely drives their fortunes and thus their respective rates of economic growth. </span></div>
<div class="separator"><span> </span></div>
<div class="separator"><span>According to Grattan's research, regional centres stationed less than 150km from the CBD are growing at a considerably faster pace than those located further away.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>This in turn suggests that the best placed regional centres over the long term might include cities such as Toowoomba which is positioned approximately 125km from Brisbane. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Other centres which sit close to their respective capitals include Geelong (around 75km from Melbourne), Newcastle &amp; the Hunter (Newcastle is located approximately 160km from Sydney), and Wollongong (85km to the south of Sydney). </span></div>
<div><span><br>The end of the mining construction boom will lead to desperate times for some regional centres, but the unemployment rate in Toowoomba has remained relatively low thanks to its diversified economy, which includes defence, agriculture, food processing, energy resources, retail and construction.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>There are some ongoing wages cuts disputes happening in the region, but overally the economy has held up relatively well. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Toowoomba a regional success story: Pete Wargent

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<div>A stunning research note from Cameron Kusher of <em>CoreLogic-RP Data</em> which revealed that while median vacant land prices continued to rise very strongly in Australian capital cities over the past year, regional land prices fell by -3.4% to $156,500.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In particular land values in Sydney (+16.6%) and Melbourne (+14.5%) have exploded over the past year.<br><br>
</div>
<div>And while demand for housing is presently low in Western Australia, median land prices in Perth continued to escalate very significantly (+10.3%), which in turn will force up the cost of new housing. Today, Sydney and Perth have the most expensive land prices in Australia. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Unlike in the capital cities regional lot sizes have actually expanded by +8.3% over the past year according to Kusher, making the decline in median land prices all the more notable.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Driven by rapid expansion in household debt regional property prices had a relatively strong run in the lead up to the financial crisis, but this trend has evidently now slowed.<br><br>While a 750sqm lot in a capital city 25 years ago would have cost you $50,000 according to Kusher, today it would set you back $417,800...and rising.</div>
<div>
<br>Regional land values are therefore reportedly some 39% cheaper than in the capital cities, the largest such differential in since 1990.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Interestingly over the long haul land prices have appreciated at a very similar percentage annual rate between capital cities and the regions.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This implies in turn that the best performing property types have been those with a high percentage land value.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>More remote properties - where the land component comprises only a small part of the asset value - remain cheap precisely because the value is all in the <em>building, </em>and not the land.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"Location, location, location" as the old mantra goes.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Why is this happening?</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Why are regional prices not keeping pace? And particularly why has this become the case now?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This is a complex question, but a major reason for the strength in capital city land values is likely to be the restricted supply of new land made available for development in the congested capital cities where population growth and therefore underlying demand is strong.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Regional population growth has been considerably weaker ex-Queensland, and there is generally speaking more land available for development.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Since the financial crisis there has been another key driver for the larger capitals: jobs growth. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The ABS released its Detailed Labour Force figures for August 2015 today which underscored some important trends.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Cities creating jobs</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>While regional employment in the two most populous states was growing reasonably robustly until the financial crisis, regional employment growth has now slowed, with the mining capex cliff now adding to the drag in some regions.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/18/LF3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/09/18/LF3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Looking below at cumulative employment growth since Febuary 2007, we can see why both Sydney and Melbourne have been labelled by the Reserve Bank as "self-sustaining job magnets", creating +350,000 new jobs apiece.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The combined cities and towns of regional New South Wales has created a fair level of new employment (+100,000), particularly in the Hunter, Newcastle and the Illawarra. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, over the same time period regional Victoria has by comparison created almost no additional employment (+10,000) on a net basis.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/18/LF2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/09/18/LF2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div class="separator">An unfortunate corrollary of this is while there was always a level of frictional unemployment in the lead up to 2007, there had at times been a job for almost everyone who wanted one.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Sadly this is no longer the case, and regional unemployment in particular has been pulsing higher. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2015/09/18/LF8.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2015/09/18/LF8.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">
<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Employment growth</span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Not dissimilarly while Greater Brisbane has now added +23,000 jobs over the year to August 2015, regional Queensland employment has declined by -27,000, though there may be some debate over the "quality" of new jobs created. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">While some revisions have been made to population assumptions relating to Western Australia, total employment in Perth has continued to rise modestly.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Unfortunately total employment in Adelaide has declined over the past <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">five</span></strong> years (-2,700), with more challenges in the pipeline in the manufacturing space and rising unemployment.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2015/09/18/LF4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2015/09/18/LF4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Unemployment rates</span></strong><br><br><div>Smoothing the volatile monthly unemployment readings below on a rolling annual basis we can see that Greater Sydney remains the best placed economy, the unusual labour market of Darwin aside.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>New South Wales also has the lowest level of mortgage delinquency rates according the latest figures from Moody's.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Furthermore, unemployment rates are now trending down in Greater Brisbane, Melbourne and Hobart.</div>
<br><span>On the other hand, unemployment is clearly rising in Perth and Adelaide.</span>
</div>
<div class="separator"><span> </span></div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2015/09/18/LF5.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div class="separator"><span> </span></div>
<div class="separator"><span><img src="/images/2015/09/18/LF5.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><span>Adelaide is now recording an unemployment rate reading of 7.9 per cent which is dragging up the 12 month moving average.</span></div>
<div class="separator"><span> </span></div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2015/09/18/LF7.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div class="separator"><span> </span></div>
<div class="separator"><span><img src="/images/2015/09/18/LF7.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">
<div>On the other hand Greater Brisbane has now recorded two surprisingly low readings of just 5.2 per cent over the last three months.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Realistically the true unemployment rate in Greater Brisbane is higher than that, but nevertheless this is heartening to see for the Queensland capital. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/18/LF6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/09/18/LF6.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Regional land prices are falling: Pete Wargent

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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><span>This week’s preliminary clearance rate of 70.7% across a total of 2,064 reported auctions represents the third lowest clearance rate so far this year across the combined capital cities, down further from last week when the final clearance rate was recorded at 71.2%. </span></span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><span>It will be interesting to see if there is any upwards revision as the remaining results are reported. There were 2,493 capital city auctions held this week, compared to 2,654 last week and 2,530 at the same time last year. Over the past eight weeks, this is the fourth week where more than 2,400 auctions have been held across the combined capitals, while over the same 8 week period one year ago, there was only one week where this volume of auctions was seen.</span> </span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/21/20150921-Capital-city.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/09/21/20150921-Capital-city.jpg" alt="" width="845" height="635"></p>
<p><strong>Melbourne’s</strong><span> preliminary clearance rate this week is 73.3 per cent, down from 74.3 per cent the previous week and higher than one year ago, when 72.1 per cent of auctions were successful. 1,091 residential properties went to auction in Melbourne this week, showing volumes are slightly lower than over the previous week (1,189) and one year ago (1,221). This week, Melbourne’s strongest performing sub-region was the Outer East, where 78.4 per cent of the 74 reported auctions were sold. On the other end of the scale was the Mornington Peninsula, where a lower 60.6 per cent of the 33 reported auctions cleared.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/21/20150921-Melbourne.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/09/21/20150921-Melbourne.jpg" alt="" width="912" height="611"></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>In </span><strong>Sydney</strong><span>, there has been little change after recording the lowest clearance rate for the year over the previous week at 73.1 per cent, with preliminary results showing a clearance rate of 73.2 per cent. Sydney’s auction market has consistently been performing at a level lower than the strengths seen at the start of the year, when, for 22 consecutive weeks, the clearance rate for the city was above the 80 per cent mark. In saying that, the number of auctions held across the city has been trending up, with 1,008 auctions held this week and 1,075 last week. One year ago, Sydney’s auction clearance rate was 78 per cent across 883 auctions. The North Sydney and Hornsby sub-region had the highest volume of auctions this week, with 183 held and a preliminary clearance rate of 76.8 per cent.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/21/20150921-Sydney.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/09/21/20150921-Sydney.jpg" alt="" width="820" height="554"></p>
<p><span>Across </span><strong>Brisbane</strong><span>, 108 auctions results have been reported this week, with 52.8 per cent successful. This week, 144 auctions were held across the city, compared to 179 last week, when the clearance rate was 50.3 per cent and 154 at the same time last year, when the clearance rate was significantly lower, at 38.9 per cent. 29 </span><strong>Gold</strong><span> </span><strong>Coast</strong><span> auction results have been reported so far this week, with a preliminary clearance rate of 41.4 per cent.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/21/20150921-Brisbane.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/09/21/20150921-Brisbane.jpg" alt="" width="821" height="551"></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>Adelaide’s</strong><span> preliminary clearance rate was 71.4 per cent this week, up from 62.4 per cent the previous week and 68.4 per cent last year. The number of auctions held across the city increased on a week-on-week basis, from 89 last week to 99 this week, while Adelaide’s auction market was busier at the same time last year (129).</span></p>
<p><span>Click to enlarge</span></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/09/21/20150921-Adelaide.jpg" alt="" width="800" height="545"></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>30 <strong>Perth</strong> auctions were held this week with a preliminary clearance rate of 37.5 per cent, compared to 54.2 per cent the previous week and 51.2 per cent one year ago.</p>
<p>There were 116 auctions across <strong>Canberra</strong> this week, compared to 79 last week and 80 one year ago. Preliminary results show that 57.0 per cent of reported results were successful this week, down from 65.2 per cent last week and 58.2 per cent one year ago.</p>
<p>So far this week, 4 of the 5 <strong>Tasmanian</strong> auctions have been reported, with only 1 successful result.</p>
</div>
</div>
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More than 2,000 auctions held across combined capital cities: CoreLogic RP Data's Shana Miller

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<p>There’s been a number of articles this week about the peak of the Sydney market. It does look as if the market is at or slightly past its peak however, it is important to thoroughly investigate how the market is tracking currently.</p>
<p><strong>Values</strong></p>
<p>Sydney home values have increased by 17.6% over the 12 months to August 2015 and by 14.0% over the first 8 months of 2015. Sydney home values have been trending higher since they reached a low point in May 2012 and since that time Sydney home values have increased by a total of 49.5%. To put that growth in perspective, a home worth $500,000 in May 2012 would now be worth $747,704. The data presented shows that home values have been trending higher at a fairly rapid pace however, more recent data may point to a slowing of the rate of growth. Home values rose by 1.1% over the month of August however, data for September is showing a much more sluggish rate of growth in home values with values -0.3% lower over the twenty eight days to 20 September.</p>
<p><strong>Sales transactions</strong></p>
<p>Unfortunately sales transactions are not a timely indicator of the market’s performance due to delays in receiving the full population of settled sales transactions.  Furthermore, off-the-plan sales are entered into sales counts at their contract date however, the record is not received until settlement which could be several years down the track for large projects. As a result, when you have heightened off-the-plan sales activity as we currently do, unit sales in particular are inclined to be undercounted.  The latest sales data to June 2015 shows that over the second quarter of the year there were 23,432 sales. Compared to the same quarter in 2014, house sales were -5.5% lower and unit sales were -16.5% lower.</p>
<p><strong>Time on market</strong></p>
<p>At the end of July 2015 the typical Sydney home was selling after just 25 days. At CoreLogic RP Data we’ve been tracking the time on market since the beginning of 2005 and this is the quickest rate of sale recorded over this period. The combination of strong value growth and a rapid rate of sale suggests that demand is still quite strong across the city.</p>
<p><strong>Auction clearance rates</strong></p>
<p>The preliminary auction clearance rate for Sydney last week was 73.2% which was virtually unchanged from the final auction clearance rate the previous week.  Importantly, in most instances the final auction clearance rates are revised lower. Auction clearance rates have shifted from their peak of almost 90% in April of this year to their current level.  At the same time a year ago clearance rates were recorded at a higher 78%. It is important to note that over recent weeks the number of properties being taken to auction has been significantly higher than the number taken to auction a year ago. Nevertheless it is clear that the auction market which represents slightly more than a quarter of all Sydney home sales has weakened over recent months and has not rebounded so far during the Spring Selling Season.</p>
<p><strong>Property listings</strong></p>
<p>The latest weekly listings data which tracks houses, units and vacant land for sale across Sydney shows that over the past 4 weeks there were 8,525 new listings and 20,121 total listings.  New listings are now at their highest level since the week ended 30/11/14 and total listings are at their highest level since the week ended 14/12/14. Comparing listings to levels at the same time a year ago shows that new listings are currently 19.0% higher and total listings are up 5.0%. In the early part of the Spring Selling Season there is much more stock available for sale in Sydney than there was at the same time a year ago. Heightened stock levels at a time when auction markets are softening and value growth has shown some early signs of slowing may contribute to a further slowdown in the rate of capital gain over the coming months.  This is due to the fact that active buyers are afforded more choice and may not have to pay such a price premium to secure a home.</p>
<p><strong>Mortgage Activity</strong></p>
<p>The CoreLogic RP Data Mortgage Index tracks pre-purchasing activity and has shown some clear weakness over recent weeks. While the Index remains at quite high levels it has fallen by -2.0% over the past couple of weeks at a time when, seasonally, the trend should typically be rising. At the same time last year the index had risen by 1.2% over the previous two weeks. With mortgages, particularly investment mortgages becoming more difficult to obtain, we are potentially seeing the first signs that this segment of the market it is starting to slow resulting in an easing of demand.</p>
<p><strong>Building approvals</strong></p>
<p>The latest building approvals data for July 2015 shows that there was a record high 5,159 dwelling approvals over the month. This was comprised of 1,655 house approvals and 3,504 unit approvals.  Over the 12 months to July 2015 there have been 15,213 house approvals and a record high 30,921 unit approvals. Sydney has consistently approved more units for construction than houses since early 1993. With a record pipeline of new housing stock it is going some way to alleviating housing shortages across the city. It also affords buyers much more choice when they are looking to purchase a new home</p>
<p><strong>Housing finance</strong></p>
<p>The latest housing finance data for New South Wales to July 2015 shows that demand from the owner occupier segment is starting to ramp-up while investor demand is starting to wane. Importantly, owner occupier demand includes refinances so if we look exclusively at new lending (excluding refinances) we also see owner occupier demand ramping up while investor demand seems to be waning. Investors still account for the greatest proportion of new lending (58.0%) however, two months ago investors accounted for a record-high 62.4% of all new mortgage lending in NSW.</p>
<p><strong>Rents and yields</strong></p>
<p>Over the 12 months to August 2015, rental rates across Sydney have increased by 2.3% which is the slowest annual rate of rental growth since May 2013. With rental growth sluggish and value growth remaining very strong, gross rental yields across Sydney have shifted to record low levels. Yields were recorded at 3.3% in August 2015 which is the softest yields on record. We’ve already mentioned that investor activity across NSW has recently hit record highs and remains elevated. It appears that many investors are having little regard for rental returns and are largely focussing on the future capital growth potential and the subsequent benefits from a negative gearing strategy.</p>
<p>Although the data is still generally undoubtedly strong, it appears there are signs that the market could be showing the first sign that growth rates are peaking. Record high new housing supply at a time when mortgage demand is seemingly slowing along with auction clearance rates and listings are rising points to potentially softer value growth conditions for the city. While we expect the rate of growth will likely start to slow, the significant stimulus of low mortgage rates is expected to ensure that home values continue to rise albeit at a more moderate pace.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/cameron-kusher/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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What is going on in the Sydney housing market? Cameron Kusher

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<div>The ABS will release its Household Finance &amp; Wealth data series for Q2 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I am expecting to see aggregate net Australian household wealth well over +55% higher than its Q3 2009 nadir, which would be representative of a remarkable recovery.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>That said, in the period since 30 June there has been something of a king hit to household balance sheets with the ASX 200 index (XJO) having nosedived below 5,000 after dropping by a further 105.5 points or 2% today.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As recently as April the market had been threatening to surge above 6,000.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Yet as things stand the "XJO 6000" caps have been gently stowed away (back into cold storage with the "FTSE 7000" scarves!) and the bourse is instead shaping to return to the same levels we saw a decade ago.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/24/imageChart.axd.gif" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/09/24/imageChart.axd.gif" alt=""> </p>
<p> </p>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Expect the ABS to show recovery figures: Pete Wargent

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<p><span>Australia's four most populous states accounted for a thumping 93.4% of Australia's </span>population growth<span> over the year to Q1 2015, with New South Wales (its total population increasing to 7,597,000), Victoria (5,915,000), Queensland (4,767,000) and Western Australia (2,587,000) being the four states in question.</span><br><br><span>You could more or less chuck a soggy beach towel over the rest. </span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/25/B1.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/09/25/B1.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>The greatest gains in headcount across the most recent 12 month reporting period were seen in New South Wales (+101,200), Victoria (+97,500) and Queensland (+61,100), and as we've already seen that the recent "births" figures are almost certainly materially </span><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/population-growth-surprise" target="_blank">understated</a><span> for the two most populous states. </span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/25/b2.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/09/25/b2.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<div>Population growth rates have slowed dramatically in the resources states and territories, including in Queensland (+1.3 per cent), and particularly in Western Australia (+1.4 per cent).<br><br>Meanwhile population growth in the Northern Territory has dried up almost completely (+0.2 per cent), and with net interstate migration away from the Top End reaching its most rapid level on record (-3,400) population 'growth' is set to turn negative in due course. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Population growth has also slowed in another state which is suffering from a "brain drain" - South Australia - where net interstate migration of negative -3,000 has helped to pull the rate of population growth down to just +0.8 per cent, though it still needs to slow further.<br><br>The 'Festival State' has not created a single full time job on a net basis since 2007 and the result has been a horribly increasing rate of unemployment.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/25/b2-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/09/25/b2-1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Components of growth</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Net overseas migration remains very strong in New South Wales (+67,000) and Victoria (+55,000), but has clearly slowed in the resources states as the mining construction boom begins to fade into the rear view mirror.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/25/B5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/09/25/B5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>The most interesting trend for me over the last few years has been to note just how few people have been choosing to leave Sydney and Melbourne for cheaper or warmer climes (refer to the net interstate migration chart below), instead opting to stay put for the relative security of their capital city employment.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>That said, I do know more than a few people - including myself, in fact - who have recently decided to relocate from Sydney to Brisbane.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Brisbane is not only comparatively inexpensive, it also has a warmer climate and is considerably less crowded - and thus if the jobs market is creating the requisite employment it should be a no-brainer from my perspective!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The data below shows that the trickle of Sydneysiders moving to Queensland <em>has </em>only been a trickle through this cycle to date, and most certainly not a flood.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>That said, net interstate migration for the March quarter into Queensland (+1,300) was plenty stronger than we saw in the prior corresponding period (+700) taking annual net interstate migration into the Sunshine State back up to +6,200 from its recent nadir.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/25/B4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/09/25/B4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Totting that little lot up we can see in the chart below that population growth has slowed significantly in Western Australia (+35,300) and Queensland (+61,100), and has slowed further in South Australia (+13,900).</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/25/B3.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/09/25/B3.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>On the other hand annual population growth remains supremely strong in New South Wales (+101,200) and Victoria (+97,500) despite the under-reporting of births over the past six months.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Housing supply</span></strong>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>On an obliquely related note, although I can't remember exactly where I read it, somewhere this week was a piece which suggested that the construction of 10,000 apartments over four years at Sydney's Green Square would form part of a "tsunami" of oversupply in Sydney.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I'm not sure if this was some kind of gee-up, but as you can see the in the figures above with the state population having increased by close to +400,000 over the past four years alone...I dunno, but I reckon someone's having a giraffe.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Whatever the case, New South Wales has an existing stock of close to <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/nsw-dwelling-stock-value-explodes" target="_blank">3 million dwellings</a>, and to my knowledge there has not been any recorded example of such a tiny fraction of additional construction having a material impact on a capital city property market.<br><br>Like London, Sydney is a city which is increasingly constrained in terms of its land supply in desirable locations, and is a city which is more or less permanently in a position of requiring new supply.<br><br>Now granted we're presently constructing proportionately far too many of those "shoebox" type developments - no arguments there - but as the Greater Sydney population continues to mushroom over time any such localised examples of oversupply will only ever be temporary in nature. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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</div>
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State population trends: Pete Wargent

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<p>Last week's article generated a lot of interest and several phone calls. It was about comparing the numbers on a larger development with a dual occupancy project. The main take out from the people I spoke to was that whilst it would be nice to be able to fund an eleven unit project, the reality is that a two unit project is much more achievable.</p>
<p>One call came from Ian who lives in Sydney. Ian explained his frustration at trying to buy land to build a duplex on in an outer suburb of Sydney. He told me that at one land release he'd been to, a bus load of people (who he described as 'foreigners') arrived and camped out to secure land to bank.  Land banking is the practice of holding land for future use or sale. It's usually done be land developers who may buy Greenfield sites and wait for rezoning or hold larger parcels of land to develop later. </p>
<p>I found his story amazing and it only confirmed that the Sydney market is crazy (like we didn't know that already!). I don't think it's fair that this kind of thing is going on. Ian asked about the typical cost of a dual occupancy project in the Newcastle area, where we are currently developing. There was a long pause on the phone after I told him it was around the $740,000 mark. That cost includes the land and construction of two, three bedroom, two bathroom single story villas including a Torrens title subdivision.  </p>
<p>"Ian, are you still there?" I thought the connection had dropped out. He said, "Yeah I'm still here, did you just say $740,000?". I confirmed that and he went onto tell me about a TWO bedroom apartment he'd looked at purchasing as brand new in Ryde in Sydney's north west priced at $915,000.  Now it was my turn to be silent. Wow. that is a lot of money for a two bedder.</p>
<p>Let's compare value for money here. On one hand we have two x three bedroom properties on separate Torrens title and on the other hand we have one x two bedroom apartment on a strata title. </p>
<p>The rent on the new two bedroom apartment in Ryde may be around  $600 per week. That's a gross yield of 3.4%.  The combined rent on the two x 3 three bedroom villas will be around $900 per week. That's a gross yield of 6.3%.  </p>
<p>The depreciation benefits on the Ryde apartment may be around $15,000 in year one using the Diminishing Method and the two villas in Newcastle will achieve around $22,000. </p>
<p>The Ryde investment will be negatively geared and the Newcastle investment should be cash-flow positive. This will depend on the owners taxable income. </p>
<p>Capital growth rates over the past three years are similar with Ryde at 20.2% and Newcastle at 23.2%. source RP Data.</p>
<p>But there is one very important difference between these two investments which makes one much more sense than the other. </p>
<p>Equity. </p>
<p>By building two dwellings and subdividing, we are creating a big chunk of equity through the development process. This is called the 'developer's margin'. This gives you a nice buffer that can stay in the project or can be drawn out after refinancing to use to continue on your investment journey. </p>
<p>Which investment would you choose?  </p>
<p> <em>Jo Chivers is Chief Executive Officer of property development project managers <a href="https://www.propertybloom.com.au/about" target="_blank">Property Bloom</a>.</em></p>
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One big benefit in developing over a buy and hold strategy: Jo Chivers

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<div>The latest <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3401.0/" target="_blank">Overseas Arrivals and Departures</a> data for the month of June 2015 confirmed that population growth in Australia will be once again be slower in this calendar year.<br><br>As I argued a year ago, by the third quarter of 2014 it had become evident that the assumption reported widely in the media that the population of Australia would boom by around 2.4 million persons over the next six years was too high - much too high, in fact!<br><br><div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZK9-CCXjNWs/VcWS2tAESjI/AAAAAAAAXd0/LM0ux2QIp00/s1600/A1.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZK9-CCXjNWs/VcWS2tAESjI/AAAAAAAAXd0/LM0ux2QIp00/s400/A1.jpg" width="400" height="65"></a></div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-MuwjFKRKYYA/VcWS2ljUtxI/AAAAAAAAXd4/r3tiw5jf7cE/s1600/A2.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-MuwjFKRKYYA/VcWS2ljUtxI/AAAAAAAAXd4/r3tiw5jf7cE/s400/A2.jpg" width="400" height="110"></a></div>
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</div>
<div>In the event population growth slowed considerably to be up by an estimated +330,200 in 2014, and population growth will be slower again in 2015.<br><br>Over the longer term we might indeed expect to see much stronger levels of population growth return for the reasons I have already explored, but for the foreseeable future lower population growth will be the new norm.<br><br>Let's take a look at the implications of the latest figures in three parts.<br><br>
</div>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part (i) - Slowing immigration nationally</span></strong><br><br></p>
<div>The number of long term arrivals into Australia has slowed further over the past year, and consequently net long term migration has pulled back to +292,000 on a rolling annual basis, sliding from a recent peak of more than +400,000.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This suggests that population growth in 2015 will likely slow further perhaps to around +300,000 persons from +330,200 in 2014.</div>
<p><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-l47JN3T3sRc/VcWZDBPOGOI/AAAAAAAAXeM/e9Bki5YjSO8/s1600/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
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<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">One of several key potential drivers of this trend has been the sharp reduction in the number of permanent settlers from New Zealand.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Meanwhile the number of permanent settler Brits has slowed to a mere trickle - just 470 settlers in June hailed from the United Kingdom, the lowest monthly figure across the full 25 years of available data.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Kiwi citizens can move freely between Australia and "home" and as such are theoretically far more sensitive to shifts in labour market conditions.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">And while spare capacity in the labour market has being rising over the past three years in Australia, it had been tightening for some time in New Zealand.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">With mining construction activity now slowing sharply in Australia - and Christchurch in New Zealand seeing a high volume of reconstruction activity - it is perhaps unsurprising that fewer New Zealanders are making the trans-Tasman trip on a permanent footing (although a record 1.27 million still came to Australian shores on a short-term basis over the past year).</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">On the other hand the number of settlers from countries such as China and India continues to slowly but surely break new heights.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-3t9V6rJXEx4/VcVDUvK0AdI/AAAAAAAAXco/XFqtxZxRjsE/s1600/Arr6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Indeed, the overwhelming majority of settlers in Australia now hail from Asia, with the middle east the only other region or continent presently in a confirmed uptrend.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
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<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part (ii) - Record visitors to Australia</span></strong></p>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>There is a flip side to the softer pace of growth in Australia's economy, and that is that falling interest rates and a correspondingly weakening currency have encouraged the tourism sector to attract a record number of short term arrivals Down Under. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This year the rolling annual number of short term arrivals blasted past 7 million for the first time to a record 7.12 million in the 2015 financial year (denoted by the blue line below).</div>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ZSVe0fqeMkA/VcVDTzyHU8I/AAAAAAAAXcM/3J4ENKKyCxk/s1600/Arr2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge </a></p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ZSVe0fqeMkA/VcVDTzyHU8I/AAAAAAAAXcM/3J4ENKKyCxk/s1600/Arr2.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ZSVe0fqeMkA/VcVDTzyHU8I/AAAAAAAAXcM/3J4ENKKyCxk/s640/Arr2.jpg" width="640" height="280"></a></div>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">While the corresponding drag on overseas travel by Australians has only been fairly gradual to date (denoted by the red line above), the weaker dollar also means that over time comparatively fewer Aussies will be inclined to make overseas trips, which in turn will act as a further boost for the domestic economy. </span></p>
<div>I holidayed on the Sunshine Coast myself in the past week, and it is quite evident that more Aussies are inclined to hang out in locations such as Noosa over the winter than has been the case in recent years.<br><br>After all, travelling overseas is not <em>quite</em> as much fun as when the dollar was at sky high levels just a few years ago!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Accordingly the ratio of short term departures to short term arrivals has steadily been trending down for the past two years.</div>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7dS7i5xs8Fc/VcVDTx-uYTI/AAAAAAAAXcQ/kB4tYIqk8kg/s1600/Arr3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7dS7i5xs8Fc/VcVDTx-uYTI/AAAAAAAAXcQ/kB4tYIqk8kg/s1600/Arr3.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7dS7i5xs8Fc/VcVDTx-uYTI/AAAAAAAAXcQ/kB4tYIqk8kg/s640/Arr3.jpg" width="640" height="280"></a></div>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">One trend which is definitely </span><strong style="line-height: 1.3em;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">not</span></strong><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> slowing down is the number of Chinese visitors to Australia with more than 1.25 million visitors from China, Taiwan and Hong Kong over the past 12 months, with the latest figures showing no signs of this emerging mega-trend easing off.</span></p>
<div>A record 563,800 Americans have also enjoyed the dramatic shift in the exchange rate over the past year.</div>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-HcD37dvFQYY/VcVDUnbykGI/AAAAAAAAXcg/2RkrnpmPbWg/s1600/Arr4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-HcD37dvFQYY/VcVDUnbykGI/AAAAAAAAXcg/2RkrnpmPbWg/s1600/Arr4.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-HcD37dvFQYY/VcVDUnbykGI/AAAAAAAAXcg/2RkrnpmPbWg/s640/Arr4.jpg" width="640" height="276"></a></div>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Furthermore there has been an explosion in the number of foreign students in Australia - also largely hailing from Asia - another trend which has in part been driven by exchange rate movements. </span></p>
<div><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-4h5vgAvj_7I/VcVDVj9-pdI/AAAAAAAAXc0/JuJ1O1YC4k0/s1600/arr5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-4h5vgAvj_7I/VcVDVj9-pdI/AAAAAAAAXc0/JuJ1O1YC4k0/s1600/arr5.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-4h5vgAvj_7I/VcVDVj9-pdI/AAAAAAAAXc0/JuJ1O1YC4k0/s640/arr5.jpg" width="640" height="280"></a></div>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">This is an emerging demographic trend which will impact Sydney and Melbourne most keenly.</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<div class="separator">The full impact of the depreciation of Australia's currency has yet to flow through to this data and we will certainly now see further short visitor records broken in the year ahead.</div>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part (iii) - 3 implications of lower population growth</span></strong></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">So what are the impacts of slower population growth in Australia, which could continue for the foreseeable future? </span></p>
<div>There will be many impacts, of course, but here are just three of the most prominent observations.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Firstly, and most obviously, slower population growth will equate to lower demand for goods and services, which in turn over time should result in <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">lower economic and employment growth.</span></strong><br><br>Over the next few years there will be a lower than expected requirement for investment in building offices, warehouses, housing, machinery, plant and equipment. </div>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Secondly, with employment growth having tracked at an estimated 2.1% or 243,600 new jobs over the past year - which is considerably faster than the estimated rate of population growth of just 1.4 per cent - the Reserve Bank now </span><a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2015/aug/html/index" target="_blank" style="line-height: 1.3em;">believes</a><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> that the </span><strong style="line-height: 1.3em;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">unemployment rate has likely peaked</span></strong><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> for this cycle. </span></p>
<div>Previously it had been forecast that the unemployment rate would continue rising to around 6.5 per cent, but now the unemployment rate is seen as more likely to be falling again from 2017. The darker blue shaded areas represent the Reserve's 70 per cent confidence interval.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5Lzmr6uP8M0/VcV_OAii7xI/AAAAAAAAXdc/zeFRKGyrS9o/s1600/UE.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5Lzmr6uP8M0/VcV_OAii7xI/AAAAAAAAXdc/zeFRKGyrS9o/s1600/UE.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5Lzmr6uP8M0/VcV_OAii7xI/AAAAAAAAXdc/zeFRKGyrS9o/s400/UE.jpg" width="400" height="387"></a></div>
</div>
<div>However, there are many regions in Australia where unemployment is still elevated or rising, particularly in resources-influenced regions and in South Australia where the trend rate of unemployment has hit 7.9 per cent and rising.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Thirdly, with the mining investment supernova now set to implode in spectacular style, the strong rates of immigration which benefited the resources areas of regional Western Australia and regional Queensland have now ebbed away.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-UAU8Pw52o-w/VZsC3PaTSPI/AAAAAAAAWtQ/Ip5KWRT_itE/s640/eng2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div>
<br><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-UAU8Pw52o-w/VZsC3PaTSPI/AAAAAAAAWtQ/Ip5KWRT_itE/s640/eng2.jpg" width="640" height="274"><br><br>Accordingly <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">population growth has become more capital city focused</span></strong>.<br><br>The most recently available data showed that Greater Melbourne and Greater Sydney alone accounted for all but half of Australia's total population growth, while Greater Brisbane and Greater Perth accounted combined for close to nearly a quarter of the total.<br><br>Regional population growth on the other hand has in aggregate been been slow and slowing.<br><br>As for whether the mining boom will have a second wind? Highly unlikely: that's not the way that commodity cycles typically tend to work.<br><br>The Reserve Bank's Commodity Index was once again smoked by another 5 per cent on a monthly average basis in SDR terms in July to be a punishing 20.2 per cent lower over the past year.<br><br>Ouch.<br><br>In Aussie dollar terms the decline has been a somewhat less dramatic 8.5 per cent year-on-year, but nevertheless Australia's terms of trade (TOT) remain well above their long run average (and TOT booms have historically tended to over-shoot on the downside too).</div>
<p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Ilkpx3lP19k/VcV_OG-p3zI/AAAAAAAAXdk/KEkm_g7X5W8/s1600/Commods1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Ilkpx3lP19k/VcV_OG-p3zI/AAAAAAAAXdk/KEkm_g7X5W8/s1600/Commods1.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Ilkpx3lP19k/VcV_OG-p3zI/AAAAAAAAXdk/KEkm_g7X5W8/s640/Commods1.jpg" width="640" height="278"></a><br><br></p>
<div>Note that it's not just iron ore and coal prices which have been hammered as demand from China and elsewhere has slowed in the face of a glut of supply.<br><br>Oil, aluminium, copper and gold have all hit half decade lows in recent times, while the price of silver has tracked little better.</div>
<div>
<br>Slightly bizarrely - given that coal prices are well below the project's notional break even point - the Adani Carmichael Mine is one possible exception to the accelerating decline in mining investment.<br><br>Some folk with the power to exert material influence evidently has the government's ear relating to this essentially unviable mega-project.<br><br>Generally speaking, however, mining production is ramping up, there is heavy downward pressure on commodity prices, and ever fewer material projects have been passing viability.</div>
<div>
<br>Going forward population growth in Australia will follow the employment growth, which has been heavily focused on Sydney and Melbourne, and to a somewhat lesser extent Brisbane and the Gold Coast.</div>
<div>
<br>Indeed, over the past year more than 80 per cent of employment growth has been found in New South Wales and Victoria, and overwhelmingly in Sydney and Melbourne. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>With the Western Australian economy slowing and net interstate migration going into reverse gear, population growth will is likely to be heavily focused on the three largest capital cities - a trend which will only be exacerbated by the nascent explosion in foreign students.<br><br>The Reserve Bank added its own outlook for the housing market in the latest SOMP:<br><br><em>"Supply constraints, particularly in Sydney, may limit the extent to which new dwelling investment can satisfy growing demand, which raises the possibility that housing prices will grow more quickly than forecast. </em><br><em><br></em><em>Also, housing prices outside Sydney and Melbourne are little changed over the past year or so and may not yet have responded fully to the very low levels of interest rates."</em>
</div>
<div><em> </em></div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
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Slower population growth implications for property investors: Pete Wargent

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<div id="post-body-2519359441485115611" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>Given the weak state of other sectors of the economy, the Retail Trade figures for the month and the June quarter took on an added significance.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In this context, especially given soft wages and slowing population growth, the June data was happily very good.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In seasonally adjusted terms retail turnover was up by 0.7 per cent for the month leading to a strong annual result to June 2015 as charted below.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rivhiKoFaUo/VcHqnRk1RpI/AAAAAAAAXXg/LMg9AYRe9MU/s1600/RT1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rivhiKoFaUo/VcHqnRk1RpI/AAAAAAAAXXg/LMg9AYRe9MU/s1600/RT1.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rivhiKoFaUo/VcHqnRk1RpI/AAAAAAAAXXg/LMg9AYRe9MU/s640/RT1.jpg" width="640" height="272"></a></div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">State versus state</span></strong><br><br><div>At the state level the impact of Sydney's housing boom and to a lesser extent that of Melbourne is evident with retail turnover rising very strongly in New South Wales and Victoria.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-shpWGnWcZqo/VcHqoDxbUTI/AAAAAAAAXXw/BQGk6eE1D-Q/s1600/rt2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-shpWGnWcZqo/VcHqoDxbUTI/AAAAAAAAXXw/BQGk6eE1D-Q/s1600/rt2.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-shpWGnWcZqo/VcHqoDxbUTI/AAAAAAAAXXw/BQGk6eE1D-Q/s640/rt2.jpg" width="640" height="270"></a></div>
<br><div>Perhaps more surprisingly, in turnover terms retail appears to have fired up a little elsewhere too, particularly in South Australia. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-KN4Bjh9HqmY/VcHqoHUFBvI/AAAAAAAAXXs/GoRQd1PsoJk/s1600/rt3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-KN4Bjh9HqmY/VcHqoHUFBvI/AAAAAAAAXXs/GoRQd1PsoJk/s1600/rt3.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-KN4Bjh9HqmY/VcHqoHUFBvI/AAAAAAAAXXs/GoRQd1PsoJk/s640/rt3.jpg" width="640" height="272"></a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Industry groups</span></strong><br><div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">It has been a relatively poor time for department stores retailing, perhaps reflective of increasing demand in the online shopping space.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">The big winner over the past year has been household goods with retail turnover pumped up by the housing prices and construction boom.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-GEggBGfpMgY/VcHqnWJRVaI/AAAAAAAAXXc/wTRwGxQsAHg/s1600/Rt5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-GEggBGfpMgY/VcHqnWJRVaI/AAAAAAAAXXc/wTRwGxQsAHg/s1600/Rt5.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-GEggBGfpMgY/VcHqnWJRVaI/AAAAAAAAXXc/wTRwGxQsAHg/s640/Rt5.jpg" width="640" height="270"></a></div>
<br><div>
<span><span>Cafés</span>, restaurants </span>and takeaway expenditure has also continued to rise relentlessly over the past year, a trend which has been ongoing over the past decade, another shift which feeds off increased apartment dwelling.</div>
</div>
<div class="post-body entry-content"> </div>
<div class="post-body entry-content"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-YJLrK-Q2toQ/VcHqnU2X9ZI/AAAAAAAAXXk/X8z5SQvVElQ/s1600/Rt6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="post-body entry-content">
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-YJLrK-Q2toQ/VcHqnU2X9ZI/AAAAAAAAXXk/X8z5SQvVElQ/s1600/Rt6.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-YJLrK-Q2toQ/VcHqnU2X9ZI/AAAAAAAAXXk/X8z5SQvVElQ/s640/Rt6.jpg" width="640" height="280"></a></div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">National accounts for Q2</span></strong><br><br><div>With June being the last month of the second quarter we also got the turnover figures reported in volume terms, which threw out an excellent result.</div>
<br><div>Retail volumes doubled market expectations to be up by 0.8 per cent for the quarter and 3.6 per cent for the year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1ZDz1D5_n4Q/VcHqoYIc3SI/AAAAAAAAXX0/4srRCHtdALo/s1600/rt4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1ZDz1D5_n4Q/VcHqoYIc3SI/AAAAAAAAXX0/4srRCHtdALo/s1600/rt4.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1ZDz1D5_n4Q/VcHqoYIc3SI/AAAAAAAAXX0/4srRCHtdALo/s640/rt4.jpg" width="640" height="286"></a><br><br><div>I used to do a chart here on quarterly volumes at the state level, but to be frank it's a Sunday morning and believe it or not I actually have better things to do!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Suffice to say that New South Wales (+4.6 per cent) and Victoria (+4.4 per cent) have been the retail trade linchpins over the year to June 2015.</div>
<br>This is a very notable result given that net exports (which have contributed significantly to GDP over the past year) will evidently not been doing so in the second quarter.<br><br>I looked at how Australia racked up a record trade deficit for the second quarter in a little more detail here.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><div> </div>
<div>Overall this was a really good result for retail trade in the second quarter.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And although the retail trade data is not necessarily representative of all household consumption this suggests that GDP for the second quarter will be held up by the strong capital city economies.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Lately various surveys have hinted at gradually improving business conditions and confidence - and jobs growth has been strong over the past year at +233,600, particularly so in Sydney.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>On the other hand capital expenditure surveys have pointed towards very weak business investment.</div>
<div>
<br>In that context, it is important that household consumption continues to produce sound results.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The other contributor to a surprisingly upbeat GDP print in the first quarter (ex-inventories) was that of new housing, with the dwelling construction boom expected to continue over the next couple of years.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-y0n0iSGst2w/VW7aRC8nfwI/AAAAAAAAV1A/jrn7C21AbNY/s640/gdp6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-y0n0iSGst2w/VW7aRC8nfwI/AAAAAAAAV1A/jrn7C21AbNY/s640/gdp6.jpg" width="640" height="275"></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="post-footer"> </div>
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Housing construction helps retail remain robust: Pete Wargent

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<p>If some people think a declining clearance rate is a solid key performance indicator for our real estate markets they are badly mistaken as research identifies that the markets remain 60 per cent private treaty and 40% public auction.</p>
<p>Clearance rates are in my opinion more a mood indicator as to consumer confidence levels and not much more, although some commentators would have you believing they are the be all and end all.</p>
<p>If we are to better understand the intricate machinations of what is happening in our demographic markets I would like to see the property portals thinking in greater detail. For example, when a property appears on the market there should be two colour codes one for owner occupier sales and the other for investor sales. These are two entirely different market demographics although they today are bundled together despite being two totally different markets.</p>
<p>As I mentioned last week there will be a number of markets to watch in 2016 plus of course tax reform which is now looking much more likely with the changing of prime minister and new ministers running new portfolios. That too means new dialogue where it was quite interesting to listen to Treasurer Scott Morrison who said “the deficit reflects a spending problem, not a revenue problem”. The previous Treasurer Joe Hockey kept telling us Australia has a revenue problem not a spending problem.</p>
<p>You can rule out any changes to negative gearing by Messrs. Turnbull and Morrison whom will be watching what happens with the investor market, especially should the off – the – plan market have a run of defaults which is highly likely. Already the banks are starting to aggressively pull back lending for new construction projects in Sydney and Melbourne as they see some difficult times ahead with sales completions for overseas investors.</p>
<p>This week the Baird Government announced that 35,000 new homes would be made available in Western Sydney which would be expected to sell very quickly to owner occupiers so these developments won’t have any trouble attaining finance from the banks as this is an entirely different market demographic. Sydney urgently needs to address the owner occupier markets and housing affordability although for those watching these markets it’s getting more difficult to understand.</p>
<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) announced this week that Sydney house prices have jumped by 21.5 per cent over the past year. The Sydney House Price Index (HPI) rose 9.8 per cent over the June quarter which just so happens to be the largest single increase since the ABS commenced the series back in 2002. Just imagine the clarity if the ABS could differentiate these increases between owner occupiers and investors when we know that the investors were the ones really driving these gains.</p>
<p>This is further explained by why the banks are cutting back lending on the new residential markets as many believe a large percentage of the foreign buyers who jumped all over the new releases in Sydney and Melbourne are having a change of heart. Such observations then allow intelligent commentaries where investment bank Morgan Stanley declared this week that the housing boom had peaked. What we are seeing at the moment is much tighter lending rules, a very strong likelihood that Sydney now has an oversupply of new apartments and migration rates are slowing.</p>
<p>When this happens we can expect to see the apartment sales slowing considerably and prices starting to significantly ease which is long overdue. The difference that must be noted is this time around prices may ease naturally as against crashing where today we need to remember we are looking at an entirely different market specific.</p>
<p>If the overseas investors withdraw from the new developments then the prices only in those individual developments would be affected. Although we then find ourselves back at mood indicators where consumer confidence would decline significantly which then flows onto property prices.</p>
<p>Having said that the overseas investors have been clearly the most dominant with the off – the – plan sales so there are still a very large number of local investors waiting to absorb whatever re – sales come onto the market. What we don’t know is how sympathetic they will be to the developers pricing where the previous sale price won’t be that relevant. The developers have already pocketed the 10 per cent deposit although depending on the number of defaults the new pricing could be down by 20 per cent plus given the hype is not there anymore.</p>
<p>There are two topics that will be intriguing in 2016 – coincidentally they both start with the letter “p”;  property and of course politics.</p>
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 60</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 52</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this week – 51</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 41</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 51</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 52</p>
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year –9</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 7</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this week – 5</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 18</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 22</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 21</p>
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 6</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 3</p>
<p>•Number of houses on the market this week – 7</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 35</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 29</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 28</p>
<p> </p>
<p><em><span>ROBERT SIMEON</span> is a director of </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> </em><em>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. <br>He has also been writing real estate blog </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> </em><em>since 2000. </em></p>
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