<p>The new <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/yarraville-green-42-stephen-street-yarraville-vic-3013">Yarraville Green</a> development in Melbourne's inner west is showing that landscaping can be just as influential as architecture, with buyers responding strongly to the garden-first approach adopted from the outset by developer Excelon Projects and the project's design team.</p>

<p>Excelon appointed Six Degrees Architects and landscape architects SBLA to work collaboratively on the development, with a brief to create "a sustainable, design-led building with a focus on community."</p>

<p>That approach has resonated with buyers. According to Next Chapter Director Tom Hirini, who is leading the sales campaign, the landscaped communal garden has become one of the project's defining features, alongside its boutique scale and European-inspired cluster housing concept.</p>

<p>Local downsizers, right-sizers and established families already living in Yarraville and surrounding suburbs have accounted for the majority of purchasers.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144913 project_image_fid=297740]</p>

<p>Yarraville Green will comprise 53 homes, including apartments and townhomes, arranged around the shared central garden to maximise connections to the landscaped open space. Parking has been moved underground, allowing the ground plane to be dedicated to greenery, pedestrian movement and communal spaces.</p>

<p>The landscape extends well beyond passive planting. Productive garden beds, a pergola, communal gathering spaces, garden sheds and a pet wash have all been integrated into the masterplan, creating spaces designed to encourage everyday interaction between residents.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144913 project_image_fid=297741]</p>

<p>The interiors continue Excelon's focus on craftsmanship, incorporating bespoke elements by Melbourne artisans including leadlight detailing by Adadaz, hand-turned timber hardware by Auburn Woodturning and blown-glass lighting by Ruth Allen.</p>

<p>Sustainability has also been embedded throughout the project, with Yarraville Green targeting an average 7-star NatHERS energy rating through passive design principles, rooftop solar servicing common areas and rainwater harvesting for landscape irrigation.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144913 project_image_fid=297735]</p>

<p>Construction continues to progress at Yarraville Green, with structural works well underway and framing works approaching completion under builder Balmain &amp; Co. The project remains on track for completion in mid-2027.</p>

<p>Apartments at Yarraville Green are currently priced from $625,000, while townhomes start from $1.4 million.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144913]</p>


Joel Robinson

Garden-led design drives buyer demand at Yarraville Green

<p>National diversified developer Fortis has officially launched Crest &amp; Walker, its latest Brisbane apartment development, with construction now underway on the 20-storey Newstead project.</p>

<p>Award-winning builder BINAH has commenced construction on the Bureau^Proberts-designed building, which will deliver a limited collection of 65 two and three-bedroom apartments on Kyabra Street.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373556]</p>

<p>The project marks Fortis' fourth active residential development in Brisbane, following River House, which is nearing completion, alongside projects in New Farm and Hamilton as the national developer continues to expand its South East Queensland pipeline.</p>

<p>Fortis General Manager – Development Queensland Dan Boman said Crest &amp; Walker reflects the developer's long-term commitment to delivering design-led residential projects in Brisbane's established inner-city suburbs.</p>

<p>"We're proud to be strengthening our presence in Brisbane with Crest &amp; Walker, particularly in such a sought-after lifestyle destination as Newstead," Boman said.</p>

<p>"Every Fortis project is shaped by its context, and we approach each one with the respect and care it deserves.</p>

<p>"Our focus is always on creating places that feel connected to their neighbourhood and elevate the everyday experience for residents. Newstead continues to evolve as one of Brisbane's most sought-after urban communities, and Crest &amp; Walker reflects our ambition to contribute meaningfully to that story."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373559]</p>

<p>Positioned between Gasworks Plaza and James Street, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/crest-walker-newstead-12-kyabra-street-newstead-qld-4006">Crest &amp; Walker</a> has been designed as a boutique residential address offering privacy and generous living spaces within one of Brisbane's most established lifestyle precincts.</p>

<p>The building features a contemporary brick podium softened by integrated landscaping, while the upper levels are characterised by restrained architecture and enduring materiality. Interiors have been designed to maximise natural light, acoustic performance and long-term liveability.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373583]</p>

<p>Residences comprise spacious two and three-bedroom floorplans, with two-bedroom apartments priced from $1.55 million and three-bedroom, half-floor residences from $3.95 million.</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a wellness-focused rooftop featuring a swimming pool, sauna, steam room, landscaped dining spaces and outdoor lounge areas overlooking Newstead and the Brisbane CBD.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373571]</p>

<p>Sales are being managed by Slaite Projects, with Fortis expecting strong demand from owner-occupiers seeking a high-quality, design-focused apartment in one of Brisbane's most tightly held inner-city suburbs.</p>

<p>Completion of Crest &amp; Walker is slated for late 2028.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145922]</p>


Fortis expands Brisbane pipeline with launch of Crest & Walker in Newstead

<p>The enormity of delivering a true skyscraper in Australia's new development market is often overlooked.</p>

<p>It has taken the best part of a decade since plans for Chevron One were first unveiled, but the 41-storey tower is now complete, with residents collecting their keys and moving into what has become one of the Gold Coast's most recognisable new landmarks.</p>

<p>Rising 127 metres above Chevron Island, Chevron One stands almost twice as high as any other building on the island. Its scale places it alongside the trio of towers at Jewel, arguably the last truly significant addition to the central Gold Coast skyline when they were completed around six years ago.</p>

<p>While there are several developments underway around a similar height to Chevron One, they are more concentrated within clusters of the highest towers in the city. The fact Chevron One sits within a developing precinct, looking back at the other high-rise developments in Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach, makes it a different proposition altogether. It will certainly become a reference point on the Gold Coast skyline.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=68833]</p>

<p>Developer Bensons Property Group is behind the 41-storey tower, which has 229 apartments, along with an exhaustive list of resident amenity spread across what is the largest development site ever assembled on Chevron Island.</p>

<p>The tower has been the talk of the town for years, says Ray White Projects Gold Coast agent Caitlin Rosenboom, who is selling the remaining apartments.</p>

<p>"People have been watching Chevron One go up for years," Rosenboom says, adding that many prospective buyers have been surprised by the scale of the views once they step inside.</p>

<p>"It's only when they walk through a completed apartment that they truly understand the position of the building," Rosenboom says.</p>

<p>"The views are jaw-dropping. Whether you're looking east over the ocean, across Surfers Paradise, along the river systems or out to the hinterland, every level offers something different but equally impressive."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=360215]</p>

<p>One of Chevron One's defining advantages is its location on the eastern side of Chevron Island on Stanhill Drive, a position which protects the views forever.</p>

<p>"There's only one row of houses between Chevron One and the water, and the height restrictions along the river means views from Chevron One can never be built out,"&nbsp;Rosenboom says.</p>

<p>While new apartment developments continue to emerge across the Gold Coast, Rosenboom says opportunities to secure a completed apartment with this level of outlook are becoming increasingly rare.</p>

<p>"The size of the site is something that would be incredibly difficult to replicate today," she says.</p>

<p>"That's allowed Chevron One to deliver the sort of amenity, open space and resident facilities that very few projects can offer. There are not many completed apartment buildings on the Gold Coast right now that can compete with the combination of scale, quality and amenity."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=68839]</p>

<p>There's around 2,000 sqm of amenity solely for the use of residents of Chevron One. Club One features a uniquely shaped swimming pool that mirrors the footprint of the building itself, set within a extensively landscaped gardens. There's also an indoor pool and spa, a fully equipped gym with a Pilates room, a yoga garden, a bookable private dining area and lounge that can host up to 30 people, and a 24-hour concierge service.</p>

<p>As for the buyers, Rosenboom is fielding enquiry from everywhere: Sydneysiders and Melburnians looking at the new and off-the-plan market following the changes in the Federal Budget, as well as those looking to relocate, through to South East Queenslanders seeking either a permanent home or a weekender bolthole.</p>

<p>"The Gold Coast lifestyle continues to resonate with people relocating from the southern states, and when they see the views and the quality of what's been delivered at Chevron One, it becomes very easy for them to understand the appeal," Rosenboom says.</p>

<p>A diverse mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments remain available, with each offering "something a little different", be it the orientation and views, configuration, or level, to suit a wide variety of buyers.</p>

<p>The remaining apartments are ready to inspect in person, by appointment.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6515]</p>


A decade in the making: Residents to move into Chevron One as construction wraps up

<p>A general rule of thumb in new apartment developments is that the penthouses get the rooftop.</p>

<p>It's a formula that's become commonplace across Australia's apartment market. Residents might have access to a pool, gym or barbecue facilities on a dedicated lower level, but the most desirable outdoor spaces are typically reserved for the highest-priced homes at the top of the building.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Property Group</a> has taken the opposite approach.</p>

<p>Rather than dedicating the rooftop to a handful of buyers, the Gold Coast developer has made it the centrepiece of its Flourish collection, creating expansive shared spaces from the best vantage point in the building.</p>

<p>The philosophy has reached its most ambitious expression at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-palm-beach-1150-1160-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> in Palm Beach, where two rooftop precincts connected by a skybridge will deliver one of the most extensive lifestyle offerings seen in a residential apartment project on the Gold Coast.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374053]</p>

<p>"We're seeing a clear move toward developments that offer more than just an apartment," Sherpa Group founder Christie Leet said.</p>

<p>"People want spaces that support how they actually live, whether that's working from home, staying active, or spending time with family and friends.</p>

<p>"That's where amenity becomes critical. It's not just about what's included, but how those spaces are designed to be used every day."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374052]</p>

<p>The breadth of amenity has already attracted buyers across multiple demographics. Younger first home buyers have been drawn to Soleira's one-bedroom apartments, a product rarely delivered in Palm Beach, while families have responded to practical inclusions such as the shallow children's pool adjoining the main lap pool and the extensive communal recreation areas.</p>

<p>Instead of a single rooftop, Soleira delivers two distinct lifestyle zones.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=372547]</p>

<p>The southern rooftop has been dedicated to wellness, featuring a gym, yoga and Pilates studio, work-from-home facilities, a wellness centre, spa, and hot and cold plunge pools.</p>

<p>The northern rooftop focuses on recreation and entertaining, incorporating a heated resort-style pool, private dining rooms, pizza ovens, barbecues, a golf simulator, children's recreation areas, and what is expected to be the Gold Coast's first rooftop basketball court, which will also double as a squash court.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374054]</p>

<p>Beyond the rooftops, Soleira will introduce 1,500 sqm of curated retail beneath the towers, creating one of Palm Beach's first genuinely mixed-use lifestyle precincts where cafés, restaurants and convenience retail become part of residents' everyday lives.</p>

<p>Sherpa has also retained management rights across the development, allowing it to oversee the long-term operation of the building through a 24-hour concierge model. The developer is also exploring additional revenue streams within the precinct aimed at helping offset ongoing body corporate costs for residents.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370962]</p>

<p>While Soleira is the largest project Sherpa has delivered, the rooftop-first philosophy has been evolving for several years.</p>

<p>It began with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Amargo</a>, the first project released under the Flourish brand. Rather than competing at the ultra-luxury end of the market with oversized half-floor and full-floor residences, Sherpa focused on creating lifestyle-driven apartments supported by resort-style shared spaces.</p>

<p>Amargo introduced more than 800 sqm of rooftop amenity, combining wellness facilities, heated pools, entertaining areas, cabanas, pizza ovens and private dining spaces into what was designed as an extension of residents' homes rather than a facility used only occasionally.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=146527 project_image_fid=366550]</p>

<p>That approach continued with Flourish Oasis, where the same amenity-led philosophy was refined into a more boutique development. Strong demand from Sherpa's growing VIP database saw much of the project sold before it reached the broader market, reinforcing buyer appetite for apartment communities centred around shared lifestyle experiences.</p>

<p>Flourish Amargo is slated for completion mid-way-through next year, with Oasis to be delivered by late 2027. Flourish Soleira is expected to complete in 2030.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]</p>


Sherpa takes amenity to the sky as Flourish Soleira captures booming Palm Beach demand

<p>As apartment living continues to evolve across Sydney's growth corridors, the quality and distribution of shared spaces is increasingly shaping how residents experience home. Rather than functioning as add-ons, amenities are being embedded into the daily rhythm of a building, supporting everything from quiet retreat to social interaction, often within a single vertical community.</p>

<p>At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/aeris-melrose-park-nursery-street-melrose-park-nsw-2114">Aeris</a> in Melrose Park, this approach is resolved through a layered amenity offering that unfolds from ground level through to its upper podium. Developed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sekisui-house-australia">Sekisui House Australia</a> in partnership with Hankyu Hanshin Properties, the project introduces 468 apartments across two towers and a mid-rise building, positioned at the highest point of the broader masterplan.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=359199]</p>

<p>The amenity experience begins at street level, where two courtyards sit within a landscaped setting that connects residents to the wider network of parks and green spaces. These green spaces are not isolated pockets but part of a wider pedestrian network that links Aeris to the surrounding <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/melrose-park-nsw-2114">Melrose Park</a> precinct, including Central Park, future schools, and the Town Centre opening in July 2026. The result is a transition that moves from public to private without abrupt boundaries, allowing residents to pass through shaded, tree-lined environments before reaching the building itself.</p>

<p>Moving upward, the focus shifts to the level five podium, where the primary communal facilities are concentrated. This space brings together a 16-metre swimming pool, outdoor seating areas, and a communal BBQ zone arranged to take advantage of elevated outlooks. Seating is positioned beneath pergolas, creating pockets of shade that extend the usability of the space throughout the day. The pool edge aligns with views toward the wider district, reinforcing the sense of elevation that defines the project’s positioning.</p>

<p>In the adjacent building, this is complemented by quieter, more contemplative spaces, including an outdoor cinema set within the same level. Positioned to operate primarily in the evening, it introduces a different tempo to the shared environment, shifting from daytime activity to after-hours use without requiring separate zones.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360299]</p>

<p>The podium also accommodates an intimate private resident gym. Located on the lower levels, it gives residents convenient access to fitness facilities without leaving the building.</p>

<p>Above, the elevated podium sky deck extends the amenity offering, providing additional open-air spaces with elevated outlooks across the surrounding landscape. While more restrained in program, this upper level reinforces the project’s vertical progression, from ground-level greenery to elevated outlook, allowing residents to move between distinct spatial conditions within a single address.</p>

<p>This distribution of amenities reflects a deliberate response to how residents use space across the day. Sekisui House Australia Sales and Marketing Director Peter Kalaf points to the role these shared areas play in shaping buyer demand. Aeris has been conceived as more than a collection of apartments, with the podium pool, gym and outdoor cinema forming part of a broader lifestyle offering that extends the home beyond each individual residence.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360300]</p>

<p>What distinguishes Aeris is not the inclusion of these elements individually, but how they are arranged in relation to one another. Active, social, and passive spaces are layered vertically rather than separated, allowing residents to choose between them without leaving the building or moving far from their apartment. This proximity supports both routine use, such as a morning swim or evening workout, and more occasional gatherings, whether around the BBQ area or within the cinema setting.</p>

<p>The amenity design also sits within a broader framework of connectivity across Melrose Park. The Melrose Park Town Centre, anchored by Coles and Dan Murphys, features a mix of retail, dining, health and lifestyle offerings, bringing everyday convenience closer to residents. By the end of the year, more than five hectares of parks and open space, equivalent to around seven football fields of green space on residents' doorstep, will further enhance the precinct, allowing the internal facilities at Aeris to operate as an extension of the wider neighbourhood rather than a substitute for it.</p>

<p>Construction at Aeris continues to gather momentum, with ground floor slabs expected to be completed in late 2026 before the first sections of the buildings begin to rise above ground.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=426]</p>


Elevated amenity anchors daily life at Aeris, Melrose Park

<p>Sydney’s property market is known for high prices, competitive bidding, and mounting pressure on first home buyers. But change is on the horizon.</p>

<p>From late 2025, eligible first home buyers in New South Wales will have access to a new federal government initiative aimed at addressing affordability: the Help to Buy Scheme.&nbsp;</p>

<h2>What is the Help to Buy Scheme?</h2>

<p>The program introduces a shared equity model intended to reduce the upfront cost of entering the property market, particularly in high-demand urban areas such as Sydney.</p>

<p>The scheme operates under a shared ownership structure in which the federal government takes an equity stake of up to 40 per cent for new homes, or 30 per cent for existing dwellings. This arrangement allows eligible buyers to significantly reduce their loan size and avoid the added cost of Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI).</p>

<p>Under this model, purchasers can enter the property market with as little as a two per cent deposit, well below the traditional 10 to 20 per cent usually required. The government’s contribution is not a loan but a co-ownership stake in the property. As such, there is no interest or rent charged on its portion.</p>

<p>Because the government’s equity combined with the buyer’s deposit typically meets or exceeds the 20 per cent threshold, LMI does not apply. The remaining balance, generally between 60 and 70 per cent of the property’s value, is financed through a standard home loan with a participating lender.</p>

<p>The government's equity in the property remains in place until the buyer chooses to repay it voluntarily or until the property is sold. Buyers can buy back the government’s share over time, in increments of at least five per cent, depending on their financial situation.</p>

<p>There is no fixed repayment timeline, but the amount to be repaid will be based on the property's market value at the time of repayment, not the original purchase price.</p>

<h2>How do you qualify for the&nbsp;Help to Buy Scheme?</h2>

<p>To qualify for the Help to Buy Scheme, applicants must meet the following conditions:</p>

<ul>
	<li>Be an Australian citizen at least 18 years of age.</li>
	<li>Be a first-home buyer who does not currently own property.</li>
	<li>Intend to live in the property as their primary residence.</li>
	<li>Earn less than $100,000 per year for individuals, or $160,000 for couples.</li>
	<li>Purchase a property within the regional price caps, currently $950,000 in Sydney, though this is expected to rise to approximately $1.3 million ahead of the program’s launch.</li>
</ul>

<p>While the Help to Buy Scheme does not solve affordability challenges across the board, it does offer a more accessible pathway for a defined segment of the market, particularly younger buyers with moderate incomes who have been priced out of traditional lending routes.</p>

<p>The scheme is expected to commence in NSW in late 2025, as part of a national rollout.</p>


Under the new model, purchasers can enter the property market with as little as a two per cent deposit, well below the traditional 10 to 20 per cent usually required

Help to Buy Scheme: What first home buyers in NSW need to know

<p>The First Home Owners Grant (FHOG) is a government initiative designed to help eligible first-time home buyers by offering financial assistance towards the purchase or construction of a new home.</p>

<p>While the FHOG is a nationwide program, it is administered separately by each state and territory, meaning the eligibility criteria, grant amounts, and property requirements can vary depending on your location. This means that the amount available and the conditions attached to the grant will differ, so it is important to check the specific guidelines for your state or territory.</p>

<p>It’s important to note that the FHOG is just one of several incentives available to first home buyers. In most states and territories, the grant is not linked to stamp duty exemptions or concessions, with the exception of the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). The FHOG is typically a one-off payment, reducing the overall cost of purchasing or building a new home before any stamp duty concessions are applied.</p>

<p>Below, we provide a breakdown of the First Home Owner Grants available across Australia, outlining the specific details for each state and territory.</p>

<h2>New South Wales First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong data-end="252" data-start="225">First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Offers a $10,000 grant for new homes valued up to $600,000. For land purchases and owner-builders, the threshold extends to $750,000.</p>

<p><strong data-end="413" data-start="389">Stamp Duty Benefits:</strong> Provides full stamp duty exemption for homes valued up to $800,000, with concessions available for properties up to $1 million.</p>

<h2>Victoria South Wales First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Provides a $10,000 grant for first-home buyers purchasing or building new homes valued up to $750,000.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Benefits</strong>: Offers full stamp duty exemption for properties up to $600,000, with concessions available up to $750,000.</p>

<h2>Queensland First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong data-end="920" data-start="893">First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Offers $30,000 for contracts signed between 20 November 2023 and 30 June 2025. The FHOG applies to new homes valued up to $750,000.</p>

<p><strong data-end="1162" data-start="1135">Stamp Duty Concessions:</strong> Provides additional concessions for properties valued up to $800,000.</p>

<h2>Western Australia First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Offers a $10,000 grant for new homes valued up to $750,000 in the southern regions and up to $1 million in the northern regions.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Concessions:</strong> Available for homes valued up to $600,000 for transactions entered into on or after 9 May 2024.</p>

<h2>Australian Capital Territory First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong data-end="1617" data-start="1590">First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Replaced by the Home Buyer Concession Scheme, offering full stamp duty concessions for eligible buyers.</p>

<h2>South Australia First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Provides up to $15,000 for new homes, including houses, apartments, and townhouses. As of 6 June 2024, there is no property value cap for eligibility.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Relief:</strong> Available for new homes and vacant land purchases.</p>

<h2>Tasmania First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant</strong>: Offers a $10,000 grant for new homes and off the plan purchases.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Exemption</strong>: Between 18 February 2024 and 30 June 2026, first home buyers of established homes valued up to $750,000 receive a full exemption on property transfer duty.</p>

<h2>Northern Territory First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant:</strong> The Northern Territory provides a $10,000 grant for new homes only. Additional government grants and concessions are available for first home buyers.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Exemption</strong>: The only stamp duty exemption available to property buyers is the House and Land Package Exemption (HLPE).</p>

<p><em>Eligibility criteria and application processes differ across states. Prospective buyers should refer to their respective state revenue offices for full details on grant availability, conditions, and additional concessions.</em></p>


Every First Home Owner Grant for new property by state

<p>In the ever-evolving landscape of sustainable architecture and environmentally conscious design, systems and ratings in place can help determine the energy efficiency of residential buildings in Australia.</p>

<p>Australia has multiple building rating systems that evaluate energy efficiency and sustainability in existing and new building designs.</p>

<p>Some systems assess individual building components, while others provide an overall rating for the entire structure.</p>

<p>A rating system ensures that homes are comfortable and energy-efficient, whether you are buying, renovating, or building.</p>

<p>NatHERS (Nationwide House Energy Rating Scheme) is a common way for new homes to meet energy efficiency requirements.</p>

<p>As new developments continue to shape the urban environment, understanding NatHERS ratings becomes essential for developers and homeowners. This article delves into the concept of NatHERS ratings, their significance, and how they contribute to creating energy-efficient homes.</p>

<h2>What is NatHERS?</h2>

<p>NatHERS is a national initiative implemented by the Australian government to promote energy efficiency in residential buildings. The scheme aims to provide a standardised method for assessing the thermal performance of homes, considering factors such as insulation, orientation, ventilation, and building materials.&nbsp;</p>

<p>NatHERS ratings are the most common way new homes meet the National Construction Code's (NCC's) minimum energy efficiency requirements.&nbsp;</p>

<p>NatHERS assessments provide thermal and whole-home ratings for new homes, townhouses, and apartments.</p>

<p>The rating helps evaluate the energy performance of buildings, guides homeowners and developers to make informed decisions about the energy efficiency of their properties, and encourages the construction of more sustainable, comfortable, and cost-effective homes.</p>

<h2>How NatHERS Ratings Work</h2>

<p>NatHERS ratings are determined through four accredited software tools (AccuRate, BERS Pro, FirstRate5, HERO) using a calculation engine CSIRO developed to predict building temperature based on various factors.</p>

<p>The tools can model complex effects of building mass, insulation, window size, and other elements.</p>

<p>The outcome is a star rating that reflects the building's overall thermal efficiency, indicating how well it can maintain a comfortable indoor temperature without excessive reliance on heating or cooling systems.</p>

<p>The star rating scale ranges from 0 to 10, with a 6-star rating being the minimum requirement for compliance with the National Construction Code (NCC).&nbsp;</p>

<p>Achieving a higher star rating demonstrates a commitment to energy efficiency and sustainability, as the building is better equipped to minimise its environmental impact and reduce long-term energy costs.</p>

<p>Anyone can use NatHERS tools, but accredited assessors can provide certified ratings and professional advice.</p>

<h2>Benefits of Higher NatHERS Ratings</h2>

<p><strong>Energy Efficiency:</strong> Buildings with higher NatHERS ratings are more energy-efficient, requiring less heating and cooling energy. This reduces the structure's carbon footprint and lowers occupants' energy bills.</p>

<p><strong>Cost Savings:</strong> Homes with higher NatHERS ratings are generally more energy-efficient, resulting in reduced energy consumption for heating and cooling. This translates to lower energy bills for homeowners, making sustainable living environmentally friendly and economically viable in the long run.</p>

<p><strong>Environmental Impact:</strong> Lower energy consumption directly translates to a reduced environmental impact. Buildings with higher NatHERS ratings contribute to the overall goal of mitigating climate change by lowering greenhouse gas emissions associated with heating and cooling systems.</p>

<p><strong>Improved Comfort: </strong>Buildings with high NatHERS ratings offer better thermal comfort to occupants. Proper insulation, well-designed ventilation, and optimal orientation maintain a consistent and comfortable indoor temperature, providing occupants with a more enjoyable and healthier space.</p>

<p><strong>Market Value and Desirability:</strong> Higher NatHERS ratings can enhance the market value of a property. As energy efficiency becomes a more significant consideration for homebuyers, a well-rated building may attract a premium price and stand out in the real estate market.</p>

<p><strong>Compliance with Building Codes:</strong> NatHERS ratings are a vital component of the National Construction Code (NCC), and compliance with these ratings is often a mandatory requirement for new developments. Local councils and planning authorities may set minimum energy efficiency standards that must be met to obtain development approval.</p>


The Nationwide House Energy Rating Scheme (NatHERS) is a crucial initiative shaping the future of energy-efficient, resilient, and cost-effective homes. With its recent upgrades, NatHERS has evolved into a world-leading tool for the building sector, supporting the global commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

Staff Writer

What is a NatHERS rating in new off the plan apartment developments?

<p>Mixed-use developments have gained significant popularity across Australia in recent years due to their unique blend of residential, commercial, and recreational spaces.</p>

<p>Unlike traditional single-purpose developments, mixed-use projects offer a harmonious integration of various functions within a single locale.</p>

<p>Residential units seamlessly coexist with commercial establishments, retail outlets, dining venues, entertainment hubs, and recreational facilities, with the combination not only enhances convenience but also fosters a vibrant lifestyle and a sense of community.</p>

<h3>Convenience and accessibility</h3>

<p>Mixed-use developments are designed with convenience in mind. They often integrate residential units with commercial spaces, retail outlets, restaurants, and recreational facilities, creating a self-contained community.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=114215 project_image_fid=204874]</p>

<p>The proximity allows residents to enjoy the convenience of having essential amenities and services within walking distance. Whether it's grabbing a cup of coffee, going grocery shopping, or accessing healthcare services, everything is conveniently located, saving residents time and effort.</p>

<h3>Vibrant lifestyle and community</h3>

<p>One of the major advantages of mixed-use developments is the vibrant lifestyle they offer. With a diverse range of amenities and communal spaces, residents have ample opportunities to interact, socialise, and build a sense of community.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=107714 project_image_fid=214122]</p>

<p>The presence of parks, community centres, and shared spaces fosters a lively atmosphere, encouraging residents to engage in various activities and events. The vibrant lifestyle within these developments creates a unique sense of belonging and camaraderie among the residents.</p>

<h3>Potential for higher rental yields and property value appreciation</h3>

<p>Mixed-use developments tend to attract a broad range of tenants and buyers due to their versatile nature. This high demand can result in higher rental yields for investors and potentially lead to property value appreciation over time.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=139989 project_image_fid=212887]</p>

<p>The integration of commercial and retail spaces attracts businesses, which can provide a stable rental income stream. Additionally, the popularity of mixed-use developments often drives up property values, making them a potentially lucrative investment in the long term.</p>

<h3>Enhanced security and maintenance</h3>

<p>Mixed-use developments typically have comprehensive security measures in place. With controlled access points, CCTV surveillance, and professional security staff, residents can enjoy enhanced safety and peace of mind.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108019 project_image_fid=212658]</p>

<p>Additionally, these developments often have dedicated maintenance teams responsible for the upkeep of common areas, landscaping, and infrastructure. This ensures that the overall appearance and functionality of the development are well-maintained, creating a pleasant living environment for residents.</p>

<h3>Live-work-play balance</h3>

<p>One of the key attractions of mixed-use developments is the ability to achieve a desirable live-work-play balance. The integration of residential and commercial spaces allows residents to live closer to their workplaces, reducing commuting time and improving work-life balance.</p>

<p>The proximity to various amenities and recreational facilities encourages an active and healthy lifestyle. Residents can easily access fitness centres, parks, restaurants, and entertainment options, all within the same development, leading to a more fulfilling and convenient way of life.</p>


alisonwarters@gmail.com

The top five reasons to buy in a mixed-use development

<p style="line-height: 1.38;">When buying a property, everyone needs to be aware of the additional costs that come as part of the buying process.</p>

<p style="line-height: 1.38;">Often the largest outlay, after the deposit which goes to the bank, is stamp duty.</p>

<h2 style="line-height: 1.38;">What is Stamp Duty?</h2>

<p>Stamp duty is an extra tax to pay the government when you buy land, a property, and other certain assets.</p>

<p>It happens when the legal ownership is transferred. It can also be known as property transfer duty or transfer duty.</p>

<p style="line-height: 1.38;"><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="415" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/C32BWkB5--c" title="YouTube video player" width="660"></iframe></p>

<h2>Who pays Stamp Duty?</h2>

<p>In some circumstances, you may get an exemption. For some states, you won’t have to pay for stamp duty if you are a first home buyer or a pensioner for houses under a particular price. There are also stamp duty concessions, where you may be entitled to a discount.</p>

<h2>How much does Stamp Duty cost?</h2>

<p>Each state has different rules which affect how much you need to pay. These rules can affect the rate you pay, and the timeframe you will need to pay in. Before you buy land or a property, make sure you check the up-to-date information for your state’s stamp duty.</p>

<p>You can use a free stamp duty calculator online to see approximately how much you’ll need to pay. Find out if you’re eligible for an exemption by enquiring on a project via Urban!</p>

<p>Overall, the stamp duty you need to pay will depend on:</p>

<ul>
	<li aria-level="1">How much your land/property is worth</li>
	<li aria-level="1">Where your land/property is located</li>
	<li aria-level="1">What type of land/property it is</li>
</ul>

<p style="line-height:1.38">Want to find out more? <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@UrbanAustralia?utm_source=YouTube&amp;utm_medium=Video&amp;utm_campaign=Subscribe&amp;utm_id=Subscribe">Subscribe to our YouTube channel</a> for more property videos.</p>


Ellen Walker

Off-the-plan property explained: What is stamp duty?

<p>Prominent New Zealand apartment and hotel operator, <a href="/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>, is offering up a prime investment opportunity for Australians to purchase off the plan in one of the world’s most popular ski destinations.</p>

<p>They recently took to market Mountain Oak Queenstown Apartments, in the growing precinct of Remarkables Park in Frankton, near the airport and at the foot of The Remarkables - the mountain range the locals like to call “The Remarks”.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sydney investors have shown interest in the one, two and three-bedroom apartments that secure high-season occupancy six months over the year, primarily over summer and winter months.</p>

<p>They average 90 per cent occupancy across their portfolio over January, February, March, August, November and December, while shoulder season months of April, July, September and October are still occupied 70 per cent of the time, with the growing appeal of Queenstown becoming not just a hotspot for the snow, but a lifestyle destination.</p>

<p>Even in the low seasons of May and June, occupancy levels reach around 40 per cent.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" /></p>

<p>Safari’s Safari Hotels arm can also manage the holiday letting for an investor, from the listing on holiday accommodation websites such as Airbnb and Booking.com to the cleaning and maintenance of the investment. They’ve been in the short stay management business for 15 years and offer 24/7 support for investors, an important convenience benefit for any overseas investor</p>

<p>Another major drawcard for Australians is that New Zealand doesn’t have a stamp duty policy - so the entry price of NZ$639,000 (AU$586,000), is all that is payable on completion.</p>

<p><img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" /></p>

<p>Safari is starting construction of the 141 apartments in Q2 this year, with a two-year build estimated to complete in mid-to-late 2027.<span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" height="15" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXczFpFAb7WuA6f4f9TtKWcqXyNwR8qqtakWv352ERkpqNlP3KwIo8YKxw67jZNHfpjEGIZGv5MQTbnvLZwNt8iu9IVdOrswOjCvBZ4zhSoOOLrpt6etVEZTN1gkBho0r_R72zdHNA?key=yq3daOanqHSb88QFd8jGYKdb" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>​</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p>The apartments will feature modern amenities and contemporary designs with expansive windows capturing sweeping views of The Remarkables mountain range.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Interiors are equipped with modern finishes, premium appliances, and secure electronic key-locked doors, ensuring a comfortable living experience for residents and guests alike.</p>

<p>With its strategic location near Coronet Peak and Cardrona Alpine Resort, as well as key retail and dining precincts such as Market Street, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and Remarkables Market, Mountain Oak offers a strong proposition for investors seeking high rental yields and capital appreciation in one of New Zealand’s most sought-after locations.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Queenstown’s sustained demand for visitor accommodation and rental properties is underpinned by a shortage of housing options, attracting both local and international buyers.</p>


Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

<html><body>
<p>Over the month there were $32.3 billion in housing finance commitments which is 1.0 percent higher over the past month. </p>
<p>Although the value of housing finance commitments increased in May 2016, they are now -4.6 percent lower than their August 2015 peak of $33.8 billion worth of commitments. </p>
<p>The CoreLogic Mortgage Index, which tracks 95 percent of national valuation activity, indicates that in June 2016 the level of mortgage activity is set to slow from May, pointing to a slowing of housing finance demand.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/07/18/Chart-1-580x210.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/07/18/Chart-1-580x210.jpg" alt=""></p>
<div class="entry">
<p> </p>
<p>In May 2016 there were $20.5 billion worth of owner occupier housing finance commitments and $11.7 billion worth of investment commitments.  Owner occupier commitments fell by -0.6 percent over the month but were 15.4 percent higher year-on-year.  Conversely, investor housing finance commitments increased by 3.9 percent over the month and are -13.3 percent lower year-on-year.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/07/18/Chart-2-1-580x210.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/07/18/Chart-2-1-580x210.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The $20.5 billion in housing finance commitments by owner occupiers was both lower over the month and -4.9 percent lower than the December 2016 peak of $21.6 billion worth of commitments.  Across the components of owner occupier housing finance commitments there was $1.8 billion in commitments for construction of dwellings, $1.0 billion for purchase of new dwellings, $7.0 billion for refinances of established dwellings and $10.7 billion for purchase of established dwellings. </p>
<p>Each segment of owner occupier mortgage lending except for purchase of established dwellings fell over the month with each segment now also lower than the recent peak.  The respective declines are recorded at -3.8 percent for construction of dwellings, -27.0 percent for purchase of new dwellings, -5.9 percent for refinancing of established dwellings and -5.6 percent for purchase of established dwellings.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/07/18/Chart-3-1-580x212.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/07/18/Chart-3-1-580x212.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>There was $11.7 billion worth of investment housing finance commitments in May 2016 which is -18.2 percent lower than its $14.4 million peak in April 2015.  Looking at the components, there was $1.2 billion worth of commitments for construction of dwellings and $10.5 billion in commitments for established housing.  The value of commitments for construction of dwellings was 15.5 percent higher over the month and 22.4 percent higher year-on-year.  Meanwhile, the value of commitments for established housing was 2.7 percent higher over the month and -16.1 percent lower year-on-year. </p>
<p>Since mortgage lenders began to implement investment lending changes to slow annual investment credit growth below 10% there has been a significant slowing in lending to this segment.</p>
<p>The May 2016 housing credit data from the Reserve Bank (RBA) shows that investment credit has advanced 6.0% which is its slowest annual increase since July 2013 and well below 10% annually.  Perhaps this is why investor lending picked up in May with mortgage lenders now having more scope to lend to investors.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/07/18/Chart-4-1-580x214.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/07/18/Chart-4-1-580x214.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Looking at the value of new lending (excluding refinances) for new housing and established housing shows that in May 2016, $4.0 billion was for new housing and $21.3 billion was for existing housing.  Based on this data, 15.9 percent of total lending over the month was for new housing with the remaining 84.1 percent for established housing. </p>
<p>Of this $4.0 billion in lending for new housing, $1.2 billion or 30.6 percent was lending for investment purposes with the remaining $2.8 billion or 69.4% of lending for owner occupation purposes. Of the 84.1 percent of new lending for established housing, $10.7 billion or 50.5 percent was borrowing by owner occupiers with the remaining $10.5 billion or 49.5% borrowed for investment purposes. </p>
<p>The data shows that much more lending is for established housing which makes sense when you consider the flow of new housing, despite being at record highs, is only a fraction of the total housing stock.</p>
<p>Despite low interest rates that are anticipated to go lower over the coming months it is difficult to imagine how growth in housing finance commitments will experience a significant uplift. Investor demand may pick up a little but historically weak rental growth and record low rental yields along with a surge in new investment housing stock should limit any uplift. </p>
<p>This should also contribute to a slowing in value growth in Sydney and Melbourne and although other areas may see a pick-up in mortgage demand, much lower home values in those regions will likely limit any significant pick-up in housing finance commitments.</p>
</div>
</body></html>

ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Investor housing finance commitments bounce in May 2016: Cameron Kusher

<html><body>
<div id="post-body-1941822993323597666" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>The Victorian State Government released an interesting document showing some of the key trends in Victoria's population and household projections out to 2051.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>One of the most notable trends is that Greater Melbourne is attracting younger and aspirational folk.</div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/07/19/VIC2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/07/19/VIC2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Source: DELWP</span></em></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The projections out to 2051 show Greater Melbourne's population exploding to well beyond 8 million, while the regional population growth figures project only a moderate increase. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/07/19/VIC.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/07/19/VIC.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>If anything, these regional figures look to be potentially overcooked to me, given that they project an ongoing strengthening in population growth despite there being any number of rural areas where the population is actually in decline. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Long term outlook</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>One of the challenges facing property investors - and indeed nearly all investors today - is myopia. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>They tend to focus on shorter and shorter term outcomes instead of long term results. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And given that we are on average living much longer today, almost all of us should be focusing on longer time horizons for investment. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>To explain what I mean, the below figures show the projected population growth over the four decades to the middle of the century.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The population of Greater Melbourne is projected to expand hugely by 3,854,700 over that time to a total of 8,024,000, accounting for 85 per cent of the growth.</div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/07/19/VIC3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/07/19/VIC3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>Geelong, which is located very close to the south-western edge of Greater Melbourne, is also expected to grow by 229,000 persons, accounting for 5 per cent of the growth. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Everywhere else, over time there is going to be less upwards pressure on land values. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Partly that's because smaller cities have more land available for release, acting as a safety valve on rising land prices.<br><br>And partly it's because absolute regional population growth just won't be very big, even if these relatively bullish forecasts prove to be somewhere close to accurate. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Similar trends are expected in other states. </div>
<div> </div>
</div>
<div class="post-footer">
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</body></html>

pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Victoria's population projections: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p>Combined capital city home values have increased substantially since the financial crisis in 2008 however, this is largely being driven by Sydney and Melbourne with value growth muted in most other capital cities.</p>
<p>As the financial crisis hit in 2007/08, Australia’s combined capital city housing markets experienced a -6.1% decline in home values between March and December 2008.  Due to aggressive interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank (RBA) and the introduction of the boost to the First Home Owners Grant, further home value declines were averted.  In fact, home values began to rise across two cycles; from December 2008 and in June 2016, 7.5 years later, combined capital city home values are now 54.9 percent higher.</p>
<p>The first chart highlights the increases in home values over the past 7.5 years.  What is immediately noticeable is that the increases have been all about Sydney (87.9 percent) and Melbourne (71.8 percent).  In fact, most other capital cities have recorded growth which is around or below the rate of inflation.</p>
<div>
<h3>Total change in capital city dwelling values December 2008 to June 2016</h3>
<p><a href="/images/2016/07/19/2016-07-15--image1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/07/19/2016-07-15--image1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>From December 2008, combined capital city home values increased until October 2010, rising by 21.8 percent. </p>
<p>Official interest rates were first increased coming out of the financial crisis in October 2009, rising by 175 basis points to November 2010.  The boost to the First Home Buyers Grant was partially removed in September 2009 and completely removed after December 31 2010.  These combined factors saw the rate of value growth slow, followed by a decline in dwelling values. </p>
<p>The second chart highlights that from December 2008 to October 2010 dwelling values rose in all cities with Sydney, Melbourne and Darwin the standouts.  Despite very low interest rates, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and Hobart recorded little value growth over this period.</p>
<h3>Total change in capital city dwelling values December 2008 to October 2010</h3>
<p><a href="/images/2016/07/19/2016-07-15--image2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/07/19/2016-07-15--image2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Between October 2010 and May 2012 as stimulus was removed from the housing market, combined capital city home values fell by -7.4 percent.  Darwin, Melbourne and Brisbane recorded the largest falls over the period.  Looking back at this period it is clear that low interest rates and first home buyer incentives stimulated the market and, as they were removed, demand was shown to be fragile. </p>
<p>In October 2010, official interest rates were recorded at 4.75 percent and by May 2012 they had fallen by 100 basis points to 3.75 percent.</p>
<h3>Total change in capital city dwelling values October 2010  to May 2012</h3>
<p><a href="/images/2016/07/19/2016-07-15--image3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/07/19/2016-07-15--image3.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>From May 2012 to June 2016, combined capital city home values have increased by 37.3 percent while official interest rates fell by 200 basis points to 1.75 percent.  Although home values have increased over the period, Sydney and Melbourne have recorded a substantially higher rate of value growth than all other capital cities. </p>
<h3>Total change in capital city dwelling values May 2012 to June 2016</h3>
<p><a href="/images/2016/07/19/2016-07-15--image4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/07/19/2016-07-15--image4.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The data indicates that since the financial crisis the capital city housing market could be described as being extremely interest rate sensitive.  Digging deeper into the data shows that in reality it is only Sydney and Melbourne that have really responded to the stimulus of low interest rates.  The relative strength of the Sydney and Melbourne economies and the much greater employment growth has clearly assisted drive housing values higher in these cities.</p>
<p>Until the economic performance improves outside of Sydney and Melbourne it seems unlikely that sustainable growth will return in these areas despite the extremely low interest rates which are set to potentially move even lower over the coming months.  For Sydney and Melbourne although affordability is increasingly becoming stretched home owners have experienced a substantial increase in equity. </p>
<p>With historically weak rental markets and record low yields it will be interesting to see if investors and upgraders in the two largest capital cities continue to show a thirst for housing in these cities given the growth phase has now been running for more than four years.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.</em></p>
<p> </p>
</div>
</body></html>

Home value growth remains all about Sydney and Melbourne: Cameron Kusher

<html><body>
<p>There’s a growing body of research data pointing investors towards the regions.</p>
<p>A recent CoreLogic report, which compiled a Top 50 list of locations where the value of home sales had grown the most over 12 months, found that 46 of the Top 50 were regional locations.</p>
<p>Other recent research highlighted the New South Wales regional areas where price growth is now greater than Sydney’s.</p>
<p>And a report from Brisbane researcher Simon Pressley has predicted that retiring baby boomers will boost regional markets by seeking out towns and cities that offer attractive affordability and good services.</p>
<p>In addition, a State Government report has highlighted regional cities in Victoria where major population growth is expected over the next 15 years.</p>
<p>All that – and a lot more that’s out there in the way of compelling data – is significant because a lot of the simplistic price information and commentary that’s published tells investors that the capital cities are always better than the regions for capital growth. </p>
<p class="Body">This is usually generalised data which produces a single growth figure for the cities and a single growth figure for the regions. It’s quite misleading, because the regional sample includes myriad negative markets (such as resources-impacted towns and drought-affected areas) which drag down the regional average. </p>
<p>That generalised figure doesn’t really tell us anything useful and shouldn’t dissuade investors from considering regional areas – which offer plenty including lower prices and higher yields.</p>
<p>Residex data suggests that Melbourne price growth has averaged 6.9 percent per year over the past decade and regional Victoria only 4.7 percent – but does that matter if you can find a regional centre growing at 8 percent a year?</p>
<p>Right now, the most active and buoyant market in Victoria is not in Melbourne – it's the regional city of Geelong just outside the capital.</p>
<p>A new report on future population growth provides a few clues as to where investors might look for growth in Victoria. Geelong is one of the key places highlighted, alongside Bendigo and Ballarat. </p>
<p>I see all three regional centres as places worthy of consideration by investors. They all offer economic strength and diversity, affordable housing and good transport links to Melbourne, particularly since the completion of the Regional Rail Link. </p>
<p>And, according to the Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, all three cities can look forward to strong population growth. </p>
<p>The <em>Victoria in Future</em> report forecasts that the City of Greater Bendigo will grow 30 percent in the next 15 years, assuming current demographic, economic and social trends continue. </p>
<p>According to the report, Bendigo can expect its population to grow from 110,000 in 2016 to 145,000 in 2031.</p>
<p>ABS figures show this will be the continuation of a trend, with the population rising from 93,000 in 2005 to 108,500 at June last year.</p>
<p>Greater Bendigo, Ballarat and Greater Geelong combined are expected to provide half of all regional growth to 2031. </p>
<p>But the municipality likely to see the most dramatic increase is Mitchell Shire, which is forecast to more than double its population from 40,000 in 2016 to 81,500 in 2031. </p>
<p>This will make it the fastest-growing area and the municipality with the second-largest growth in regional Victoria behind Greater Geelong. Mitchell Shire is a little north of Melbourne and includes towns such as Kilmore, Seymour, Broadford and Wallan.</p>
<p>Another LGA getting spill-over growth north of Melbourne is Macedon Ranges, which can expect its population to grow 25 percent over the next 15 years. Macedon Ranges towns have experienced major increases in median prices in the past 12 months, including 20 percent in Gisborne, 14 percent in Riddells Creek and 25 percent in Macedon.</p>
<p>It's further evidence that there is major capital growth to be found in the regions, if you look behind the generalised data.</p>
<p><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
</body></html>

terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Most active property market in Victoria is not in Melbourne: Terry Ryder

<html><body>
<p>With the national housing market having experienced more than four years of ongoing value rises, affordability in certain areas is deteriorating and sales that were once considered to be at the top end of the market are now becoming more common. </p>
<p>With housing becoming more expensive, there has been a substantial rise in the number of homes selling for, or in excess of, $2 million.</p>
<p>When the current growth phase commenced in June 2012, there had been 4,103 dwelling sales of at least $2 million with these sales spread across 884 suburbs (if they have achieved this for houses and units they have been counted twice).  Over the 12 months to March 2016, there had been 11,648 house and unit sales at a price of at least $2 million with these sales recorded across 1,437 suburbs.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/07/26/Chart-1-1-580x198.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/07/26/Chart-1-1-580x198.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Looking at the number of sales of at least $2 million, the 11,668 sales were comprised of 10,184 houses and 1,464 units.  Note that the recent dip in sales is likely to be due to the preliminary nature of recent sales data.  Before the financial crisis, the number of sales at or above $2 million peaked at 6,146 sales over the 12 months to February 2008.  They then fell to a low of 3,321 sales in June 2009.  It took until November 2013 for the number of sales of at least $2 million to eclipse their pre-financial crisis level indicating that the premium housing segment was hit particularly hard during the downturn.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/07/26/Chart-2-2-580x196.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/07/26/Chart-2-2-580x196.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>While the previous analysis looked at the number of sales of at least $2 million, the second chart looks at the number of suburbs that had at least one sale over the year at or above this price point.</p>
<p>Over the past year, 1,139 suburbs had a house sale at or above $2 million and 298 suburbs had a unit sale at that price point.  If we compare this to the pre-financial crisis peak there were 1,193 suburbs that had a sale within this price point before the financial crisis with this figure falling as low as 815 suburbs over the year to June 2009. </p>
<p>It took until August 2014 for the number of suburbs with a sale at or above $2 million to eclipse the pre-financial crisis level.  With 1,437 suburbs nationally having at least one sale of at least $2 million over the past year it further highlights that housing is becoming less affordable in more suburbs.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/07/26/Chart-3-2-580x197.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/07/26/Chart-3-2-580x197.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>It is particularly evident of the deteriorating affordability of housing when you look at the number of suburbs with a sale price at or in excess of $2 million over time in NSW and Vic.  As the above chart shows, particularly in NSW and to a lesser extent in Vic, there has been a significant increase in the number of suburbs with sales of at least $2 million over recent years.  This is reflective of housing prices being pushed higher, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, as home values rise and competition for well-located housing increases.</p>
<p>As home values continue to rise, there will continue to be some bracket creep, with the number of homes selling at $2 million or higher likely to rise further.  We would anticipate an increasing number of sales at or above $2 million over the coming years, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne.  Of course the rising prevalence of sales at this price point is systemic of the deteriorating housing affordability and increasing cost of purchasing a home.</p>
<p> <em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.</em></p>
</body></html>

The $2 million dollar dwelling sales surge: Cameron Kusher

<html><body>
<p>The most interesting fact revealed by a St George Bank survey of first-home buyers was buried in the small print of the media statement.</p>
<p>The survey of 1,000 first-home buyers across Australia indicated that 26 percent of respondents said they had to make compromises to buy their first homes. Half of those had to compromise on location while 46 percent had to compromise on price.</p>
<p>I was amazed that only a quarter of FHBs felt they had to make compromises to achieve home ownership. I would have expected it to be close to 100 percent.</p>
<p>When I bought my first home over 30 years ago, I had to make a range of compromises, especially on location and the quality of the house I was buying. But it seems most first-home buyers today don’t feel they had to make concessions on location or price, according to this survey at least.</p>
<p>Media would have us believe that the Great Australian Dream is near dead. Journalists continue to support that notion by quoting the discredited ABS data on borrowers identified as first-home buyers, even though the ABS has issued statements admitting it is under-counting them.</p>
<p>This is because only borrowers with a government grant are identified as first-home buyers and grants are no longer available to first-time buyers of existing homes, which severely reduces the numbers identified as first-home buyers.</p>
<p>The figures also ignore first-time buyers who buy an investment property as a first purchase while continuing to rent their homes – the so-called rentvestors, who are a rising force in Australian real estate.</p>
<p>Other more credible research sources, such as the NAB quarterly Residential Property Survey, indicate that a third of sales of new properties across Australia, and 27% of sales of established properties, are made to first-time buyers (some of which are buying investment properties, rather than a home, as a first purchase).</p>
<p>The 27 buyers of buyers of established homes who are first-timers aren’t counted in the ABS figures, but media regularly quotes the bureau’s figures as an indication that first-home buyers are priced out of the market.</p>
<p>Housing affordability and home ownership have become so politically charged in Australia that it’s impossible to have a calm and rational debate about it.</p>
<p>Even the so-called research is tainted by political objectives, so that almost nothing published is believable. The annual Demographia report clearly sets out to achieve a pre-determined result – that all of Australia is deemed unaffordable – and achieves this by arbitrarily setting the “median multiple” bar ridiculously low, so that a house costing $305,000 is described as unaffordable to someone earning $100,000 a year.</p>
<p>The recent HILDA report was a biased document which had its headline written before the research was conducted. The reported claim by Professor Roger Wilkins that “a whole generation of adults would never own a home” was over the top and not supported by the evidence in the report. </p>
<p>We continue to have high home ownership rates by world standards, although they are lower than they were 15 years ago, according to this report. Home ownership rates include almost 70 percent in Western Australia, 68 percent in South Australia and 66 percent in Victoria – although given the political tone of the report and its publicity campaign, I’m don’t feel confident believing any of its figures.</p>
<p>Other reports are tainted by suspect data. The longstanding HIA’s quarterly Affordability Report, which has a long track record of telling it like it is, found affordability (as an average across the nation) improved in the March Quarter but deteriorated in the June Quarter. </p>
<p>The weakness in this report is that it relies on CoreLogic for its price data, which recorded a significant rebound in Sydney prices in the June Quarter – a result that has been starkly contradicted by figures from other major sources, including Domain and SQM Research.</p>
<p>But, taking the latest Affordability Report at face value, it found there had been a worsening of affordability quarter-on-quarter in some jurisdictions (including Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide) but improvements in affordability in others (such as Perth, Hobart, Tasmania, regional NSW, regional Victoria, regional South Australia and regional WA).</p>
<p>Taking a longer-term view, affordability is the best it’s been in regional Australia at any time in the past five years. We can say the same thing about many individual areas of the nation (including Western Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory), though clearly not about Sydney or Melbourne.</p>
<p>The current affordability level in Sydney and NSW is better than it was five years ago, but not as good as it was four years ago before the Sydney boom got under way. In Victoria, affordability in the March Quarter was the best it’s been in five years, but then it dropped in June Quarter, caused by the reliance on CoreLogic figures, which differ from several other sources.</p>
<p><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em> </p>
</body></html>

The Great Australian Dream is not dead: Terry Ryder

<html><body>
<div class="post-outer">
<div class="post hentry uncustomized-post-template">
<div id="post-body-1360595647608607452" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>CoreLogic's home value index for July will show that Sydney's prices have blazed 5.6 percent higher over the last quarter and a rip-snorting 10.3 percent in 2016 to date. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/08/01/RP.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/08/01/RP.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">And interest rates to fall further? Interesting times. </div>
<div> </div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="post-outer">
<div class="post hentry uncustomized-post-template">
<div id="post-body-8306564758661403353" class="post-body entry-content">
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Credit growth slows</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Reserve Bank (RBA) has an inflation target of 2 to 3 percent, and the latest figures this week showed that inflation is running well below that level, and the softest inflation result in 17 years.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>On Friday the RBA released its Financial Aggregates figures for the month of June which showed total credit growth slowing.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Investor credit growth - denoted by the red line below - has more than halved to an annual pace of just 5 percent now, while personal credit growth remains weak, and business credit went backwards in the month. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/08/01/RBA1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/08/01/RBA1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>All up annual credit growth slowed to 6.2 percent, with broad money growth a little slower at 6 percent.</div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/08/01/RBA2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/08/01/RBA2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Business...as usual</span></strong><br><br><div>Unfortunately business credit growth printed negative in June, taking the annual result back to 6.6 percent, a disappointing reading which might point towards a cut in interest rates. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/08/01/RBA4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/08/01/RBA4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Banks and housing</span></strong><br><div> </div>
<div>While growth in term deposits remains understandably weak, other deposits with banks continue to surge at a very strong double digit pace. </div>
<br><a href="/images/2016/08/01/RBA3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
</div>
<div class="post-body entry-content">
<img src="/images/2016/08/01/RBA3.jpg" alt=""><br><br><div>In the housing market investor credit growth slowed to 5 percent, now tracking at just half the arbitrary "speed limit" imposed by APRA. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Naturally banks and lenders have been pushing owner-occupier loans, but even here growth slow by a tiny fraction from 7.73 to 7.72 percent, having notched a 70-month high in May. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/08/01/RBA5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/08/01/RBA5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>Total housing credit growth of 6.7 percent is now well below the 7.5 percent rate hit in November last year, which will provide some comfort that macro-prudential measures are doing what they were designed to do.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall, while nobody seems quite so sure any more what the split of credit relates to, total credit of $2.57 trillion is now growing at a slower pace of 6.2 percent, down from 6.7 percent in October last year. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/08/01/RBA6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/08/01/RBA6.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>Another factor in this week's interest rate decision was that US real GDP printed at an annual pace of just 1.2 percent in Q2 2016, meaning that the US Federal Reserve won't be hiking rates soon.<br><br>The Aussie dollar jumped to 76 US cents, and will probably jump higher again if interest rates are not cut on Tuesday.<br><br>Bookies and financial markets are leaning towards an interest rate cut in Tuesday to a record low of 1.50 percent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</body></html>

Brace for record low rates: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p>Adelaide often flies under the radar for investors. It’s perhaps the most under-rated among the capital cities, despite having delivered good growth rates in the past and currently it leads the nation on some measures, including the rise in sales activity.</p>
<p>Across the Adelaide metro area, the standouts are middle-market precincts like the City of Charles Sturt. This LGA, immediately north and north-west of the Adelaide CBD, is at the forefront of Adelaide’s efforts to evolve its economy, as manufacturing industries fade.</p>
<p>Topping the list of Adelaide projects is the $2 billion Royal Adelaide Hospital, due for completion in late 2016. There is also a serious focus on improved transport infrastructure, including road and rail, which will better connect industrial precincts and outer suburbs with the CBD, the Port of Adelaide and Adelaide Airport.</p>
<p>The City of Charles Sturt attracts people because it’s close to the beaches, the CBD, the airport and regional shopping facilities. Henley Beach is one of Adelaide’s most popular, with a noted restaurant precinct with boutique shopping. </p>
<p>The LGA has long been considered the sporting and entertainment hub of Adelaide, with national basketball, soccer and football stadiums, three privately-owned golf courses, an international rowing course, the River Torrens Linear Park, the Adelaide Entertainment Centre, the coast and numerous highly-regarded local sporting venues.</p>
<p>The City is well-catered-for in terms of schools and medical services. Health is the largest employer in South Australia and has replaced manufacturing as the largest employer in Charles Sturt, which has two major hospitals: the Queen Elizabeth Hospital (the Western Region’s primary health care provider) and Western Hospital at Henley Beach.</p>
<p>Charles Sturt is a solid middle-market area that offers affordable homes, low vacancies and a strong construction pipeline. </p>
<p>The LGA has bayside suburbs west of the Adelaide CBD, including rising markets such as Henley Beach (median house price $790,000) and Henley Beach South ($763,000), as well as some more affordable locations such as Findon ($473,000), Kidman Park ($570,000), Semaphore Park ($467,000) and Seaton ($460,000).</p>
<p>Long-term growth rates (average annual growth in median prices over 10 years) are generally 5–6% per year. Henley Beach, Henley Beach South and Woodville Park are slightly higher at 7 percent per year (which means values doubling in 10 years).</p>
<p>Most of properties in the city are stand-alone houses (73 percent), while 28 percent are units, according to the 2011 Census. However, there has been a marked increase in the number of units being built in the last three years.</p>
<p>Vacancies across Charles Sturt are generally low, with many postcodes having vacancy rates below 2 percent. Only postcodes 5020 and 5021 (which includes West Lakes and West Lakes Shore) have vacancies outside the general comfort zone.</p>
<p>Much is happening in Adelaide generally and the City of Charles Sturt specifically, and this is partly attributed to the State Government’s <em>30-Year Plan for Greater Adelaide.</em></p>
<p>Using the plan as a guide, Renewal SA is initiating urban renewal developments, led by four major projects valued at over $2 billion. The largest project will see the population of the small inner suburb of Bowden grow from a few hundred residents to 3,500 over the next decade. This area is being revitalised with cafés, restaurants, shops, offices and parks.</p>
<p>The old AAMI Stadium (also known as Football Park) at West Lakes is to be redeveloped. In 2014, the South Australia National Football League sold AAMI Stadium to developers Commercial and General for $71 million. Commercial &amp; General has plans to develop the site into residential, commercial and community land uses. It is estimated 1,600 homes will eventually occupy the site. </p>
<p>Another Renewal SA project will see land adjacent to the Woodville Railway Station transformed with a mix of medium-density to high-rise dwellings.</p>
<p class="Body"><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
</body></html>

Adelaide the most under-rated among the capital cities: Terry Ryder

<html><body><div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="section">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>Over the 12 months to June 2016, 14.0 percent of all house sales and 7.3 percent of all unit sales were at a price of at least $1 million. </span></p>
<p><span>To put these figures into perspective, just five years ago 7.5 percent of all house sales and 4.0 percent of all unit sales were within this price point. </span></p>
<p><span>Research shows that the combined capital cities saw a much higher proportion of sales of at least $1 million over the past year. </span></p>
<p><span>Across all house sales, more than 1 in 5 sales (20.9 percent) were for at least $1 million compared to 8.9 percent of all unit sales. </span></p>
<p><span>Within the regional areas, the sale price for houses and units are typically lower than those in capital cities.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/08/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-19%20at%202.57.08%20PM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/08/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-19%20at%202.57.08%20PM.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>An </span><span>emerging trend worth noting is the fact that the difference between the proportion of house and unit sales of at least $1 million is much narrower in regional areas.</span><span><br></span></p>
<p>In regional areas we tend to see that units are only located in larger regional markets and often are positioned in relatively expensive waterfront locations. Often the proportion of unit sales at, or above, $1 million has been above that for houses. Over the past year, 3.3 percent of all regional house sales and 3.0 percent of all unit sales were at least $1 million.</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p><span>Over </span><span>the past 10 years in particular, </span><span>we’ve </span><span>seen a substantial rise in the proportion of sales of at least $1 </span><span>million.</span></p>
<p><span>CoreLogic data confirms that in Sydney, over the past year more than 2 out of every 5 house sales was at least $1 million, and in Melbourne, 1 in 5 house sales was at least $1 million. Sydney had a higher proportion of total unit sales of at least $1 million than the proportion of house sales at that price point in each city except for Melbourne. </span><span>(Refer adjacent table which highlights the proportion of sales of at least $1 million over the past year, a decade ago and 20 years ago.) </span></p>
<p><span>There is an element of bracket creep in the numbers, however, as the supply of affordable homes selling has declined significantly over recent years, an increasing proportion of stock is selling for a seven figure sum.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/08/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-19%20at%202.58.55%20PM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/08/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-19%20at%202.58.55%20PM.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>Demand </span><span>for premium housing and within the most expensive areas of the country remains buoyant which suggests that over the coming year the proportion of sales at a price point of at least $1 million will continue to </span><span>rise</span><span>. </span></p>
<p><span><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.</em></span></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div></body></html>

$1 million property market sales on the rise: CoreLogic's Cameron Kusher

<html><body>
<div id="post-body-1755958549475955952" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>Couldn't think what to blog about today - creative juices aren't flowing at all, perhaps I need black coffee - so thought that for something different I'd take a look at Australia's oft-discussed government debt, and a few forecasts from the Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM).<br><br>The unemployment rate in Australia has declined from 6.3 percent to 5.7 percent since the beginning of 2015, taking the trend unemployment rate to its lowest level in 34 months at 5.71 percent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Click to enlarge</div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/09/01/B3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>The supporting figures, however, show that we are absolutely miles away from full employment, with oodles of part time work and under-employment around. </div>
<br><div>Indeed, tomorrow's capex report will likely show that the collapse of business investment in the <strong>mining</strong> sector has spilled over adversely into associated parts of the services and manufacturing sectors (since some of these businesses naturally provided inputs into the resources investment boom - warehousing, transport, equipment manufacture, and so on).<br><br>In effect, via the unwinding of mining capex resources regions will be experiencing the multiplier effect of the mining investment boom in reverse, sucking some mining-dependent regions in Western Australia and Queensland into a gravitational black hole. I think this has already happened, in truth, the data will just confirm it.<br><br>Anyway, that's tomorrow's news, but one senses the outlook for capital expenditure won't be all that great, and the recovery in all likelihood has a long way to run.<br><br><a href="/images/2016/09/01/Lifecycle.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
</div>
<div>
<img src="/images/2016/09/01/Lifecycle.jpg" alt=""><br><br>(huge h/t to whichever internet wag created the above graphic - it gets me every time...too funny).<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Some Treasury forecasts...</span></strong><br><br>As new resources projects come online, Treasury expects the Australian economy to keep growing at a solid clip, in part driven by increasing export volumes, particularly of LNG.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/09/01/AOFM2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/09/01/AOFM2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Treasury has maintained its positive forecasts for real GDP growth over the next few years, with economic growth to be aided by household consumption and net exports as the export volumes increase.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/09/01/AOFM3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/09/01/AOFM3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, these forecasts somewhat optimistically assume that household consumption will continue to remain positive, with the terms of trade holding also up at a level above anything we saw prior to the start of the boom (rather questionable given the trend since 2012!). Coking coal prices are booming - up by more than 40 per cent in August - but the outlook for iron ore prices may be grim.<br><br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/09/01/TOT.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/09/01/TOT.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br>Tourism and education exports are also expected to be key contributors, a theme I've looked at quite a bit on this blog.<br><br><a href="/images/2016/09/01/Services.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br><img src="/images/2016/09/01/Services.jpg" alt=""><br><br>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Government borrowing</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>While the government is making noises about trimming dollars and cents from its budget expenditure, behind the scenes the government is expected to keep borrowing hard, in part for infrastructure projects.<br><br>There are now $397 billion of Treasury bond securities across 23 lines on issue - a dozen of which have more at least A$20 billion outstanding - but look how low some of those coupon rates are...</div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/09/01/B2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/09/01/B2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div class="separator">There are a further $30.6 billion of Treasury indexed bonds and $3.5 billion of Treasury notes, adding up to a total of <strong>$431.2 billion</strong> of government securities on issue. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Fortunately bond yields are so low that the government can borrow at around the lowest yields on record without adding unduly to the interest burden.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/09/01/RBA.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/09/01/RBA.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">And government bonds on issue are expected to keep rising, with there having been strong inflows from Japan into Australia's debt securities over the last three years.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Gross issuance of Treasury Bonds is expected to be A$90 billion in 2016-17, up marginally from last year, with net issuance of $68.9 billion (and an additional $3 billion of net issuance in Treasury Notes).</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/09/01/AOFM1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/09/01/AOFM1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">That will take Australian government bonds on issue to well beyond 25 per cent of GDP (though Australia's net debt to GDP ratio is somewhat lower) - which is not really very high compared to other deficit countries - e.g. Japan, Canada, the United States, Greece, France, or the United Kingdom - but nevertheless moving in an unmistakeably northwards direction since the financial crisis took hold. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">How you feel about that really depends upon your position. Some argue that it's borrowing from the future. Others maintain that it makes a lot of sense to borrow for infrastructure projects when bond yields and coupon rates are so low, and while mining investment is still in freefall. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="post-footer"> </div>
</body></html>

Latest Investing Insights

Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

Editor's Picks

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Latest Investing Insights

Safari Group offers low-touch investment proposition in Queenstown’s popular ski fields district

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News