<p data-end="568" data-start="388">Abadeen has released the whole-floor penthouse crowning its recently completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/park-residences-cremorne-2-sutherland-street-cremorne-nsw-2090">Park Residences</a> development in Cremorne, bringing the near-300 sqm residence to market for the first time.</p>

<p data-end="803" data-start="570">Occupying the entire top floor of the boutique Lower North Shore development, the penthouse includes 221 sqm of internal living and a 74 sqm wraparound terrace, with a prized north-facing aspect taking in views across Middle Harbour.</p>

<p data-end="1041" data-start="805">The residence has been completed and fully furnished following a collaboration between Abadeen Executive Chairman Justin Brown and internationally recognised interior designer Jack Freeman, Founder and Managing Director of FREEMAN &amp; CO.</p>

<p data-end="1239" data-start="1043"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/abadeen">Abadeen</a> and Freeman approached the penthouse as a finished home, sourcing furniture, artwork, lighting and objects from Australia and overseas.</p>

<p data-end="1239" data-start="1043">[smartcode_project:default project_id=114246 project_image_fid=378718]</p>

<p data-end="1459" data-start="1241">Pieces from Parisian design house Pierre Augustin Rose sit alongside contemporary artworks and bespoke lighting, with Freeman drawing on recent visits to PAD Paris and Salone del Mobile Milano for the final collection.</p>

<p data-end="1582" data-start="1461">Brown said the aim was to create a penthouse that felt more like a large-scale private home than a traditional apartment.</p>

<p data-end="1777" data-start="1584">"The experience begins the moment the lift doors open. You're welcomed into an elegant dining room before the home opens into an extraordinary living space framed by sun-drenched harbour views.</p>

<p data-end="2018" data-start="1779">"Every time someone walks through the front door they pause. It's not just the view, it's the incredible sense of space, the warmth created by the northern sunlight that fills the interiors, and the way every room connects so effortlessly.</p>

<p data-end="2245" data-start="2020">"It has all the proportions of a luxury home, while delivering the effortless lifestyle and personalised experience of living in a world-class six-star hotel, combined with the simplicity and convenience of apartment living."</p>

<p data-end="2245" data-start="2020">[smartcode_project:default project_id=114246 project_image_fid=378713]</p>

<p data-end="2438" data-start="2247">A secure lift provides exclusive access to the penthouse level, opening to a dedicated arrival foyer and dining area before the residence expands into its main living and entertaining spaces.</p>

<p data-end="2577" data-start="2440">Floor-to-ceiling glazing runs across the northern side of the home, connecting the interiors with the terrace and Middle Harbour outlook.</p>

<p data-end="2772" data-start="2579">The penthouse also features a fireplace and substantial chef's kitchen, while the wraparound terrace has been designed to accommodate both everyday outdoor living and larger-scale entertaining.</p>

<p data-end="2245" data-start="2020">[smartcode_project:default project_id=114246 project_image_fid=378720]</p>

<p data-end="2245" data-start="2020">Freeman said the interiors had been deliberately kept restrained to complement the scale, natural light and outlook already established by the architecture.</p>

<p data-end="2996" data-start="2932">"The penthouse is a serene study in quiet luxury," Freeman said.</p>

<p data-end="3264" data-start="2998">"The interior pairs soft, sculptural forms with warm timber, pale stone and a restrained neutral palette. Curated artwork and metallic accents add depth, while abundant natural light creates a calm, effortlessly refined atmosphere. In my world, less is always more."</p>

<p data-end="3384" data-start="3266">Freeman said the approach was centred around collecting individual pieces rather than simply decorating the apartment.</p>

<p data-end="3531" data-start="3386">"Every material, every object and every piece of furniture has been curated with intention. I am a true believer in collecting versus decorating.</p>

<p data-end="3823" data-start="3533">"The architecture already provided extraordinary natural light, remarkable volume and an uninterrupted connection to Middle Harbour. Our role was to complement those qualities with unique one-of-a-kind pieces of fine art and collectible design sourced from recent travels around the world."</p>

<p data-end="3823" data-start="3533">[smartcode_project:default project_id=114246 project_image_fid=378694]</p>

<p data-end="3986" data-start="3825">Among the collection are solid bronze sculptures by Lorenzo Quinn, alongside a curated crystalware collection and pieces sourced from international design fairs.</p>

<p data-end="4199" data-start="3988">Park Residences sits opposite Cammeray Golf Club, Cammeray Croquet Club and Grand Slam Tennis Cammeray, around 300 metres from Neutral Bay Village and its established collection of restaurants, cafés and retail.</p>

<p data-end="4370" data-start="4201">Brown said the combination of a whole-floor floorplan, northern aspect and proximity to Neutral Bay was becoming increasingly difficult to find on the Lower North Shore.</p>

<p data-end="4516" data-start="4372">"Completed whole-floor penthouses with a sun-drenched north-facing aspect and sweeping Middle Harbour views are exceptionally rare," Brown said.</p>

<p data-end="4717" data-start="4518">"Add a quiet position opposite golf, croquet and tennis facilities, a level walk to Neutral Bay Village and only minutes to the CBD, and you have a lifestyle that's incredibly difficult to replicate.</p>

<p data-end="4883" data-start="4719">"This is a home that offers the privacy and generosity of a luxury residence together with the convenience of one of Sydney's best-connected harbourside locations."</p>

<p data-end="4947" data-start="4885">The penthouse will be exclusively marketed by SRM Residential.</p>

<p data-end="4947" data-start="4885">[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=114246]</p>


Joel Robinson

Abadeen unveils penthouse at Park Residences in Cremorne

<p>New Brisbane developer Dalcott has unveiled Marrone, the first of three residential projects it is planning in and around Browning Street in South Brisbane.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marrone-south-brisbane-39-browning-street-south-brisbane-qld-4101">Marrone</a> will comprise 97 predominantly two- and three-bedroom apartments, with larger residences aimed squarely at the owner-occupier market.</p>

<p>The project will sit in a quiet pocket of South Brisbane between South Bank and West End, close to the restaurants, cultural attractions and riverfront amenity that have driven the suburb's continued transformation.</p>

<p>Dalcott is targeting buyers looking for more space and amenity than has traditionally been offered in the inner-city apartment market, particularly downsizers and professionals wanting to remain close to the city.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=149951 project_image_fid=377072]</p>

<p>Resident facilities will be concentrated around an extensive rooftop amenity offering, including a swimming pool, spa, infrared sauna, warm and cold magnesium plunge pools, private lounge, dining room and outdoor entertaining areas.</p>

<p>Dalcott Managing Director Lachlan Cottee said South Brisbane's combination of lifestyle, connectivity and established character had been central to the approach to Marrone.</p>

<p>“South Brisbane offers a combination of lifestyle, connectivity and character that’s difficult to replicate elsewhere in Brisbane,” Cottee said.</p>

<p>“Our focus has been on creating homes that feel connected to that environment while providing the level of design, functionality and quality that today's owner-occupiers expect.”</p>

<p>The residences will feature an expressive material palette. Italian Calacatta Viola marble, known for its deep burgundy veining, will be paired with aged brass tapware, Chestnut engineered timber flooring and Tuscan Oak joinery.</p>

<p><img alt="Marrone" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b8d833da-3b30-496a-ae30-07bdff371b50" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-25%20at%2010.52.35%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=P6DAgOfaQzIXljKKK5j3e5NhWtrHIu9G" /></p>

<p>Bathrooms will feature Nara Japanese ceramics and glass bricks, while clay, walnut and brass lighting will be used throughout the apartments.</p>

<p>Dalcott has appointed Realm Projects, led by Managing Director Shane Foley, to handle sales and marketing following previous sold-out collaborations between the groups.</p>

<p>Foley said the Brisbane apartment buyer had become increasingly focused on the quality of the home itself rather than simply securing an inner-city address.</p>

<p>“We expect to see strong demand from buyers who still want all the advantages of inner-city living but aren’t prepared to compromise on the quality of their home,” Foley said.</p>

<p>“Many will be downsizers looking to leave behind the maintenance of a traditional family home without giving up the space they enjoy, while others are likely to be professionals wanting a residence that reflects the way they live today.”</p>

<p>“Marrone responds directly to that demand, with generous floorplans, exceptional resident amenity and a location that places some of Brisbane’s best dining, entertainment and cultural attractions within walking distance.”</p>

<p><img alt="Marrone" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="61f7b22f-899e-4c0f-940a-7d3ab1bfb93a" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-25%20at%2010.52.44%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=PvN1JYxBgUpyCB7efKo52WGdSDs9nmim" /></p>

<p>Marrone will be the first project delivered as part of Dalcott's broader investment in the precinct.</p>

<p>It will be followed by La Terra, a boutique project comprising penthouse-style, single-level apartments on a northeast corner site with extensive resident amenity and city views.</p>

<p>Cottee said Marrone represented the first stage of the group's longer-term plans for the area.</p>

<p>Dalcott was established in 2025 by Lachlan Cottee and Ben Dalgliesh, combining development and construction capability under an integrated model and focusing on architecturally considered residential projects.</p>

<p>Marrone will initially be offered through a pre-release registration campaign ahead of its broader public launch.</p>


Dalcott targets owner-occupiers with South Brisbane debut Marrone

<p>Parnell Developments is the latest to seek significant uplift through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority on a Strathfield site previously approved for a much smaller apartment development.</p>

<p>Parnell has sought approval for a 32-storey mixed use tower across&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/7-lyons-street-strathfield-nsw-2135">3-7 Lyons Street and 18 Parnell Street</a>, a&nbsp;1,857 sqm site around 400 metres from Strathfield Station. The building would yield 160 apartments, 15 per cent of which will be dedicated affordable as per the government mandate for buildings seeking additional uplift.</p>

<p>Approved previously was a nine-storey building back in 2022 with just over 30 apartments. That approval came prior to the project being&nbsp;progressively reconsidered as planning policy shifted toward greater density around transport hubs.</p>

<p><img alt="Strathfield" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c5af5281-a643-4eb2-b8c4-0081b59c04c7" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-25%20at%209.16.48%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=37bd3mI7rHNpThOV_75VO8xsGFwWOi1u" /></p>

<p>Turner has designed the latest building that would replace&nbsp;existing detached homes across the four lots.</p>

<p>The apartment mix comprises 22 one-bedroom apartments, 107 two-bedroom and two-bedroom-plus configurations, and 31 apartments with three or more bedrooms. The scheme also includes 203 car spaces across six basement levels and 58 bicycle spaces.</p>

<p>The proposal has been designed around a three-storey podium addressing Lyons Street, with the tower rising above and stepping toward its upper levels.</p>

<p>Turner said the podium was deliberately scaled to respond to the existing street, while the taller element has been designed as part of the emerging skyline anticipated around Strathfield Town Centre and the wider Homebush transport-oriented development precinct.</p>

<p>The Lyons Street frontage would have a more active, pedestrian-focused character, incorporating the commercial tenancy, landscaping and a brick-framed podium with an awning.</p>

<p><img alt="Strathfield" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="14b20874-b8c3-4ac7-bc03-92be9a69fb78" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-25%20at%209.17.48%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=av.9TxtqIRTC6v3PkSuu1rL9rreWoe2h" /></p>

<p>Parnell Street, which faces the railway corridor, has been given a different architectural treatment, with double-height breeze blocks, landscaping and communal areas used to soften the interface with the rail infrastructure.</p>

<p>The tower itself uses curved and recessed facade elements, with wave-like indentations across the northern elevation breaking the building into three vertical forms.</p>

<p>A palette of grey concrete, brick and breeze blocks is complemented by clay and terracotta accents, while the upper tower adopts a lighter expression through articulated slab edges, vertical fins and recessed glazing.</p>

<p>Residents would have access to 467 sqm of communal open space spread across three levels. The ground floor would accommodate the more active resident areas, including barbecue and group gathering spaces and an internal communal room capable of being used for working from home.</p>

<p>A more passive viewing deck is proposed at level three, overlooking the ground-level landscaping and neighbouring tennis courts, while a rooftop "sunset deck" at level 30 would provide another social and relaxation space.</p>

<p><img alt="Parnell" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c3dce401-a80f-4682-8471-4caa01180880" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-25%20at%209.17.34%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Xyo8JVqbOhSJXNy6Ih.1cHL.O6i0bGR." /></p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Strathfield has been earmarked for substantial change through the Strathfield Town Centre planning work and the nearby Homebush TOD precinct.</p>

<p>Turner's report says the project has been designed to act as a transition between the existing low and mid-rise development surrounding the site and the taller built form expected to emerge across the town centre.</p>

<p>The proposal is being assessed as State Significant Development under the HDA pathway, alongside the concurrent request to amend the Burwood Local Environmental Plan.</p>


First look: New apartment tower pitched for Strathfield Town Centre precinct

<p>An $18 million penthouse has hit the market in Main Beach as construction tops out on La Mer, the $155 million apartment development rising just metres from the beach.</p>

<p>Spanning around 600 sqm across the top two levels of the 29-storey tower on Main Beach Parade, the four-bedroom penthouse is one of the latest eight-figure residences to test the upper end of the Gold Coast apartment market.</p>

<p>Its launch comes amid continued activity at the very top of the market, following the $30 million off-the-plan sale of a Burleigh Heads penthouse earlier this year, which surpassed the Gold Coast's previous $24 million apartment record set in 2023.</p>

<p>The <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/la-mer-main-beach-3580-main-beach-parade-main-beach-qld-4217">La Mer penthouse</a> has been designed as a private residence in the sky, with 360-degree views spanning the ocean, Broadwater, hinterland and Gold Coast skyline.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=95606 project_image_fid=378731]</p>

<p>All four bedrooms have ensuites, while the ocean-facing master retreat occupies around half of the upper level and includes its own lounge, private balcony, two walk-in wardrobes and an oversized ensuite with a freestanding stone bath positioned to take in the views.</p>

<p>The residence also features a kitchen designed to accommodate a private chef, a 3.6-metre island bench, expansive butler's pantry, wine cellar and integrated bar.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=95606 project_image_fid=378732]</p>

<p>A rooftop pool and substantial outdoor entertaining area with its own kitchen sit above the residence, while a grand staircase connects the two internal levels. The penthouse also has its own express lift.</p>

<p>OTP Group Director James Elliott, who is marketing La Mer, said the penthouse was expected to appeal to high-net-worth buyers seeking either a permanent Main Beach residence or Gold Coast holiday home.</p>

<p>“The La Mer penthouse represents exceptional value, considering its quality design, size, privacy and location, not to mention the 360-degree views capturing the beach and Gold Coast Broadwater,” Elliott said.</p>

<p>“We’re anticipating interest from high-net-worth individuals and couples seeking a residence or holiday home in the sought-after village enclave of Main Beach, taking advantage of the unprecedented growth underway in the area and neighbouring The Spit.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=95606 project_image_fid=378736]</p>

<p>La Mer is being developed by developer-builder ODUS and Nazero, in partnership with funder Metrics Credit Partners.</p>

<p>ODUS Director Byron Sakha said topping out the tower had provided the opportunity to release the project's most significant residence.</p>

<p>“We’ve worked with internationally-recognised studio Sici Design on the penthouse interiors, with a focus on ensuring it isn’t luxury for luxury’s sake. Every element has been thoughtfully designed to enhance quality of life for those who call it home,” Sakha said.</p>

<p>“The views are the hero of virtually every space, but we’ve given equal attention to the fittings and finishes, so every detail exudes elegance and refinement.”</p>

<p>Sici Design Founder and Director Maria Papadopoulos said the extensive views became an integral part of the interior design rather than simply something the residence was designed around.</p>

<p>“The views weren't something we designed around, they became part of the design itself, with the true luxury of La Mer in its feeling of peace, calm and wellbeing,” Papadopoulos said.</p>

<p>“Luxury isn't defined by how something looks, but how it makes you feel, and we believe a luxurious home should be beautiful to live in, not stressful to maintain.”</p>

<p>The interiors combine Austral Dream Dolomite natural stone and travertine with timber flooring and a restrained coastal palette.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=95606 project_image_fid=378734]</p>

<p>Designed by Plus Studio, La Mer is one of the more boutique additions to the rapidly changing Main Beach apartment market.</p>

<p>The tower comprises just 24 full-floor, three-bedroom plus multipurpose room apartments below the two-level penthouse, giving the project a considerably lower density than many of the larger towers being developed across the Gold Coast.</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a pool and spa, gym, sauna, barbecue facilities, private sun lounges, yoga lawn and outdoor beach shower.</p>

<p>The penthouse has been released as part of the final collection of residences at La Mer, with remaining apartments priced from $4.3 million.</p>

<p>Construction is expected to complete later this year, with a fully furnished display apartment now open on level four.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=95606]</p>


ODUS releases $18 million penthouse crowning La Mer Main Beach

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/far-east-consortium">Far East Consortium</a> is preparing to commence construction on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/640-bourke-street-melbourne-640-bourke-street-melbourne-vic-3000">640 Bourke Street</a> this October, marking the next milestone for the Melbourne CBD development and its higher-end Eliza Collection.</p>

<p>Spanning levels 44 to 68 of the 68-storey <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>-designed tower, the Eliza Collection has been conceived as a lower-density offering within the broader development, with only five apartments on each floor, dedicated lift access and a collection of resident spaces reserved exclusively for Eliza Collection residents.</p>

<p>The Eliza Collection forms part of Far East Consortium's broader move toward larger-format residences at 640 Bourke Street, where the number of apartments was reduced from earlier plans as apartment sizes increased.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=509 project_image_fid=365685]</p>

<p>"What it's meant for 640 Bourke is we've actually reduced the number of apartments. We've increased the overall size of the apartments. We don't have any studios in here, and what that does for a project is it elevates it," Far East Consortium Director of Sales and Marketing Lauren Sheldon said.</p>

<p>Rothelowman Associate Jun Chang said the design process provided an opportunity to create more generous floorplans.</p>

<p>"We were given the opportunity to be more generous. The apartments became bigger and squarer than any other apartments which had been designed in the CBD before that."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=509 project_image_fid=368869]</p>

<p>That thinking carries through to the Eliza Collection, where the residences have been designed around the space and functionality associated with a larger home, but positioned high above the centre of Melbourne.</p>

<p>Kitchens are equipped with Gaggenau appliances, a butler's pantry, temperature-controlled wine cabinet and sculptural pendant lighting, while engineered timber flooring, stone and porcelain finishes and custom cabinetry feature throughout the broader interiors.</p>

<p>Privacy and security are another point of distinction. Eliza Collection residents have dedicated lift access, while 640 Bourke Street will provide concierge services and secure resident parking. Short-stay accommodation, including Airbnb, will not be permitted within the development.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=509 project_image_fid=365689]</p>

<p>Eliza Collection residents will also have exclusive access to selected amenity spaces across levels one and three of the restored Eliza Tinsley building. These include the Salon with grand piano, an art therapy room, private dining rooms and treatment rooms.</p>

<p>They sit within more than 3,000 sqm of amenity planned across 640 Bourke Street, alongside facilities including a pool, gym, whisky lounge and further social and wellness spaces.</p>

<p>The Eliza Tinsley building itself is central to the wider project's identity. Rather than treating the existing Eliza Tinsley façade as a separate element, Rothelowman used it as a starting point for the architecture of the new tower, with the historic building to accommodate the project's gallery and lobby.</p>

<p>"It's a significant asset and wants to be celebrated and experienced by all residents every single time they go in and out of the building," Rothelowman Principal Stuart Marsland said.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=509 project_image_fid=368872]</p>

<p>The tower will rise behind the retained heritage building at 640 Bourke Street, placing residents within walking distance of Southern Cross Station, Flagstaff Gardens, Queen Victoria Market and the Docklands waterfront.</p>

<p>With construction scheduled to begin in October, Far East Consortium has established an onsite display gallery at 640 Bourke Street, including fully built apartments that allow the project's layouts, materials and finishes to be inspected at full scale.</p>

<p>A fully built Eliza Collection apartment is also available to view at the display suite by appointment ahead of the planned October construction commencement.</p>

<p>Eligible purchasers who buy before construction commences can secure the full available off-the-plan stamp duty savings, subject to eligibility and applicable conditions.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=509]</p>


Far East Consortium brings Eliza Collection to 640 Bourke Street ahead of October construction start

<p>Sydney’s property market is known for high prices, competitive bidding, and mounting pressure on first home buyers. But change is on the horizon.</p>

<p>From late 2025, eligible first home buyers in New South Wales will have access to a new federal government initiative aimed at addressing affordability: the Help to Buy Scheme.&nbsp;</p>

<h2>What is the Help to Buy Scheme?</h2>

<p>The program introduces a shared equity model intended to reduce the upfront cost of entering the property market, particularly in high-demand urban areas such as Sydney.</p>

<p>The scheme operates under a shared ownership structure in which the federal government takes an equity stake of up to 40 per cent for new homes, or 30 per cent for existing dwellings. This arrangement allows eligible buyers to significantly reduce their loan size and avoid the added cost of Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI).</p>

<p>Under this model, purchasers can enter the property market with as little as a two per cent deposit, well below the traditional 10 to 20 per cent usually required. The government’s contribution is not a loan but a co-ownership stake in the property. As such, there is no interest or rent charged on its portion.</p>

<p>Because the government’s equity combined with the buyer’s deposit typically meets or exceeds the 20 per cent threshold, LMI does not apply. The remaining balance, generally between 60 and 70 per cent of the property’s value, is financed through a standard home loan with a participating lender.</p>

<p>The government's equity in the property remains in place until the buyer chooses to repay it voluntarily or until the property is sold. Buyers can buy back the government’s share over time, in increments of at least five per cent, depending on their financial situation.</p>

<p>There is no fixed repayment timeline, but the amount to be repaid will be based on the property's market value at the time of repayment, not the original purchase price.</p>

<h2>How do you qualify for the&nbsp;Help to Buy Scheme?</h2>

<p>To qualify for the Help to Buy Scheme, applicants must meet the following conditions:</p>

<ul>
	<li>Be an Australian citizen at least 18 years of age.</li>
	<li>Be a first-home buyer who does not currently own property.</li>
	<li>Intend to live in the property as their primary residence.</li>
	<li>Earn less than $100,000 per year for individuals, or $160,000 for couples.</li>
	<li>Purchase a property within the regional price caps, currently $950,000 in Sydney, though this is expected to rise to approximately $1.3 million ahead of the program’s launch.</li>
</ul>

<p>While the Help to Buy Scheme does not solve affordability challenges across the board, it does offer a more accessible pathway for a defined segment of the market, particularly younger buyers with moderate incomes who have been priced out of traditional lending routes.</p>

<p>The scheme is expected to commence in NSW in late 2025, as part of a national rollout.</p>


Under the new model, purchasers can enter the property market with as little as a two per cent deposit, well below the traditional 10 to 20 per cent usually required

Help to Buy Scheme: What first home buyers in NSW need to know

<p>The First Home Owners Grant (FHOG) is a government initiative designed to help eligible first-time home buyers by offering financial assistance towards the purchase or construction of a new home.</p>

<p>While the FHOG is a nationwide program, it is administered separately by each state and territory, meaning the eligibility criteria, grant amounts, and property requirements can vary depending on your location. This means that the amount available and the conditions attached to the grant will differ, so it is important to check the specific guidelines for your state or territory.</p>

<p>It’s important to note that the FHOG is just one of several incentives available to first home buyers. In most states and territories, the grant is not linked to stamp duty exemptions or concessions, with the exception of the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). The FHOG is typically a one-off payment, reducing the overall cost of purchasing or building a new home before any stamp duty concessions are applied.</p>

<p>Below, we provide a breakdown of the First Home Owner Grants available across Australia, outlining the specific details for each state and territory.</p>

<h2>New South Wales First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong data-end="252" data-start="225">First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Offers a $10,000 grant for new homes valued up to $600,000. For land purchases and owner-builders, the threshold extends to $750,000.</p>

<p><strong data-end="413" data-start="389">Stamp Duty Benefits:</strong> Provides full stamp duty exemption for homes valued up to $800,000, with concessions available for properties up to $1 million.</p>

<h2>Victoria South Wales First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Provides a $10,000 grant for first-home buyers purchasing or building new homes valued up to $750,000.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Benefits</strong>: Offers full stamp duty exemption for properties up to $600,000, with concessions available up to $750,000.</p>

<h2>Queensland First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong data-end="920" data-start="893">First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Offers $30,000 for contracts signed between 20 November 2023 and 30 June 2025. The FHOG applies to new homes valued up to $750,000.</p>

<p><strong data-end="1162" data-start="1135">Stamp Duty Concessions:</strong> Provides additional concessions for properties valued up to $800,000.</p>

<h2>Western Australia First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Offers a $10,000 grant for new homes valued up to $750,000 in the southern regions and up to $1 million in the northern regions.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Concessions:</strong> Available for homes valued up to $600,000 for transactions entered into on or after 9 May 2024.</p>

<h2>Australian Capital Territory First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong data-end="1617" data-start="1590">First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Replaced by the Home Buyer Concession Scheme, offering full stamp duty concessions for eligible buyers.</p>

<h2>South Australia First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant:</strong> Provides up to $15,000 for new homes, including houses, apartments, and townhouses. As of 6 June 2024, there is no property value cap for eligibility.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Relief:</strong> Available for new homes and vacant land purchases.</p>

<h2>Tasmania First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant</strong>: Offers a $10,000 grant for new homes and off the plan purchases.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Exemption</strong>: Between 18 February 2024 and 30 June 2026, first home buyers of established homes valued up to $750,000 receive a full exemption on property transfer duty.</p>

<h2>Northern Territory First Home Owner Grant</h2>

<p><strong>First Home Owner Grant:</strong> The Northern Territory provides a $10,000 grant for new homes only. Additional government grants and concessions are available for first home buyers.</p>

<p><strong>Stamp Duty Exemption</strong>: The only stamp duty exemption available to property buyers is the House and Land Package Exemption (HLPE).</p>

<p><em>Eligibility criteria and application processes differ across states. Prospective buyers should refer to their respective state revenue offices for full details on grant availability, conditions, and additional concessions.</em></p>


Every First Home Owner Grant for new property by state

<p>In the ever-evolving landscape of sustainable architecture and environmentally conscious design, systems and ratings in place can help determine the energy efficiency of residential buildings in Australia.</p>

<p>Australia has multiple building rating systems that evaluate energy efficiency and sustainability in existing and new building designs.</p>

<p>Some systems assess individual building components, while others provide an overall rating for the entire structure.</p>

<p>A rating system ensures that homes are comfortable and energy-efficient, whether you are buying, renovating, or building.</p>

<p>NatHERS (Nationwide House Energy Rating Scheme) is a common way for new homes to meet energy efficiency requirements.</p>

<p>As new developments continue to shape the urban environment, understanding NatHERS ratings becomes essential for developers and homeowners. This article delves into the concept of NatHERS ratings, their significance, and how they contribute to creating energy-efficient homes.</p>

<h2>What is NatHERS?</h2>

<p>NatHERS is a national initiative implemented by the Australian government to promote energy efficiency in residential buildings. The scheme aims to provide a standardised method for assessing the thermal performance of homes, considering factors such as insulation, orientation, ventilation, and building materials.&nbsp;</p>

<p>NatHERS ratings are the most common way new homes meet the National Construction Code's (NCC's) minimum energy efficiency requirements.&nbsp;</p>

<p>NatHERS assessments provide thermal and whole-home ratings for new homes, townhouses, and apartments.</p>

<p>The rating helps evaluate the energy performance of buildings, guides homeowners and developers to make informed decisions about the energy efficiency of their properties, and encourages the construction of more sustainable, comfortable, and cost-effective homes.</p>

<h2>How NatHERS Ratings Work</h2>

<p>NatHERS ratings are determined through four accredited software tools (AccuRate, BERS Pro, FirstRate5, HERO) using a calculation engine CSIRO developed to predict building temperature based on various factors.</p>

<p>The tools can model complex effects of building mass, insulation, window size, and other elements.</p>

<p>The outcome is a star rating that reflects the building's overall thermal efficiency, indicating how well it can maintain a comfortable indoor temperature without excessive reliance on heating or cooling systems.</p>

<p>The star rating scale ranges from 0 to 10, with a 6-star rating being the minimum requirement for compliance with the National Construction Code (NCC).&nbsp;</p>

<p>Achieving a higher star rating demonstrates a commitment to energy efficiency and sustainability, as the building is better equipped to minimise its environmental impact and reduce long-term energy costs.</p>

<p>Anyone can use NatHERS tools, but accredited assessors can provide certified ratings and professional advice.</p>

<h2>Benefits of Higher NatHERS Ratings</h2>

<p><strong>Energy Efficiency:</strong> Buildings with higher NatHERS ratings are more energy-efficient, requiring less heating and cooling energy. This reduces the structure's carbon footprint and lowers occupants' energy bills.</p>

<p><strong>Cost Savings:</strong> Homes with higher NatHERS ratings are generally more energy-efficient, resulting in reduced energy consumption for heating and cooling. This translates to lower energy bills for homeowners, making sustainable living environmentally friendly and economically viable in the long run.</p>

<p><strong>Environmental Impact:</strong> Lower energy consumption directly translates to a reduced environmental impact. Buildings with higher NatHERS ratings contribute to the overall goal of mitigating climate change by lowering greenhouse gas emissions associated with heating and cooling systems.</p>

<p><strong>Improved Comfort: </strong>Buildings with high NatHERS ratings offer better thermal comfort to occupants. Proper insulation, well-designed ventilation, and optimal orientation maintain a consistent and comfortable indoor temperature, providing occupants with a more enjoyable and healthier space.</p>

<p><strong>Market Value and Desirability:</strong> Higher NatHERS ratings can enhance the market value of a property. As energy efficiency becomes a more significant consideration for homebuyers, a well-rated building may attract a premium price and stand out in the real estate market.</p>

<p><strong>Compliance with Building Codes:</strong> NatHERS ratings are a vital component of the National Construction Code (NCC), and compliance with these ratings is often a mandatory requirement for new developments. Local councils and planning authorities may set minimum energy efficiency standards that must be met to obtain development approval.</p>


The Nationwide House Energy Rating Scheme (NatHERS) is a crucial initiative shaping the future of energy-efficient, resilient, and cost-effective homes. With its recent upgrades, NatHERS has evolved into a world-leading tool for the building sector, supporting the global commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

Staff Writer

What is a NatHERS rating in new off the plan apartment developments?

<p>Mixed-use developments have gained significant popularity across Australia in recent years due to their unique blend of residential, commercial, and recreational spaces.</p>

<p>Unlike traditional single-purpose developments, mixed-use projects offer a harmonious integration of various functions within a single locale.</p>

<p>Residential units seamlessly coexist with commercial establishments, retail outlets, dining venues, entertainment hubs, and recreational facilities, with the combination not only enhances convenience but also fosters a vibrant lifestyle and a sense of community.</p>

<h3>Convenience and accessibility</h3>

<p>Mixed-use developments are designed with convenience in mind. They often integrate residential units with commercial spaces, retail outlets, restaurants, and recreational facilities, creating a self-contained community.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=114215 project_image_fid=204874]</p>

<p>The proximity allows residents to enjoy the convenience of having essential amenities and services within walking distance. Whether it's grabbing a cup of coffee, going grocery shopping, or accessing healthcare services, everything is conveniently located, saving residents time and effort.</p>

<h3>Vibrant lifestyle and community</h3>

<p>One of the major advantages of mixed-use developments is the vibrant lifestyle they offer. With a diverse range of amenities and communal spaces, residents have ample opportunities to interact, socialise, and build a sense of community.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=107714 project_image_fid=214122]</p>

<p>The presence of parks, community centres, and shared spaces fosters a lively atmosphere, encouraging residents to engage in various activities and events. The vibrant lifestyle within these developments creates a unique sense of belonging and camaraderie among the residents.</p>

<h3>Potential for higher rental yields and property value appreciation</h3>

<p>Mixed-use developments tend to attract a broad range of tenants and buyers due to their versatile nature. This high demand can result in higher rental yields for investors and potentially lead to property value appreciation over time.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=139989 project_image_fid=212887]</p>

<p>The integration of commercial and retail spaces attracts businesses, which can provide a stable rental income stream. Additionally, the popularity of mixed-use developments often drives up property values, making them a potentially lucrative investment in the long term.</p>

<h3>Enhanced security and maintenance</h3>

<p>Mixed-use developments typically have comprehensive security measures in place. With controlled access points, CCTV surveillance, and professional security staff, residents can enjoy enhanced safety and peace of mind.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108019 project_image_fid=212658]</p>

<p>Additionally, these developments often have dedicated maintenance teams responsible for the upkeep of common areas, landscaping, and infrastructure. This ensures that the overall appearance and functionality of the development are well-maintained, creating a pleasant living environment for residents.</p>

<h3>Live-work-play balance</h3>

<p>One of the key attractions of mixed-use developments is the ability to achieve a desirable live-work-play balance. The integration of residential and commercial spaces allows residents to live closer to their workplaces, reducing commuting time and improving work-life balance.</p>

<p>The proximity to various amenities and recreational facilities encourages an active and healthy lifestyle. Residents can easily access fitness centres, parks, restaurants, and entertainment options, all within the same development, leading to a more fulfilling and convenient way of life.</p>


alisonwarters@gmail.com

The top five reasons to buy in a mixed-use development

<p style="line-height: 1.38;">When buying a property, everyone needs to be aware of the additional costs that come as part of the buying process.</p>

<p style="line-height: 1.38;">Often the largest outlay, after the deposit which goes to the bank, is stamp duty.</p>

<h2 style="line-height: 1.38;">What is Stamp Duty?</h2>

<p>Stamp duty is an extra tax to pay the government when you buy land, a property, and other certain assets.</p>

<p>It happens when the legal ownership is transferred. It can also be known as property transfer duty or transfer duty.</p>

<p style="line-height: 1.38;"><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="415" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/C32BWkB5--c" title="YouTube video player" width="660"></iframe></p>

<h2>Who pays Stamp Duty?</h2>

<p>In some circumstances, you may get an exemption. For some states, you won’t have to pay for stamp duty if you are a first home buyer or a pensioner for houses under a particular price. There are also stamp duty concessions, where you may be entitled to a discount.</p>

<h2>How much does Stamp Duty cost?</h2>

<p>Each state has different rules which affect how much you need to pay. These rules can affect the rate you pay, and the timeframe you will need to pay in. Before you buy land or a property, make sure you check the up-to-date information for your state’s stamp duty.</p>

<p>You can use a free stamp duty calculator online to see approximately how much you’ll need to pay. Find out if you’re eligible for an exemption by enquiring on a project via Urban!</p>

<p>Overall, the stamp duty you need to pay will depend on:</p>

<ul>
	<li aria-level="1">How much your land/property is worth</li>
	<li aria-level="1">Where your land/property is located</li>
	<li aria-level="1">What type of land/property it is</li>
</ul>

<p style="line-height:1.38">Want to find out more? <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@UrbanAustralia?utm_source=YouTube&amp;utm_medium=Video&amp;utm_campaign=Subscribe&amp;utm_id=Subscribe">Subscribe to our YouTube channel</a> for more property videos.</p>


Ellen Walker

Off-the-plan property explained: What is stamp duty?

<p>National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.</p>

<p>NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.</p>

<p>Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.</p>

<p>NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.</p>

<p>"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.</p>

<p>They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.</p>

<p>"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.</p>

<p>NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;</p>

<p>CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.</p>

<h2><strong>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</strong></h2>

<p>According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;</p>

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			<p><strong>Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025</strong></p>
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			<p><strong>Current loan size</strong></p>
			</td>
			<td>
			<p><strong>Drop in monthly repayment</strong></p>
			</td>
			<td>
			<p><strong>New monthly repayment</strong></p>
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			<p>$600,000</p>
			</td>
			<td>
			<p>-$92</p>
			</td>
			<td>
			<p>$3,907</p>
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			<p>$750,000</p>
			</td>
			<td>
			<p>-$114</p>
			</td>
			<td>
			<p>$4,884</p>
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			<p>$1M</p>
			</td>
			<td>
			<p>-$153</p>
			</td>
			<td>
			<p>$6,512</p>
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			<p>Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.</p>
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

<p>Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.</p>

<p>“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.</p>

<p>“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>


Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

<html><body><div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<p>GUEST OBSERVERS</p>
<p>The RBA minutes suggest a higher degree of uncertainty around the Bank’s outlook, with board members concerned about the labour market, potential negative feedback from the housing market into the CPI, and the effect of easy international monetary policy on the exchange rate.</p>
<p>While we still expect the RBA to keep the cash rate on hold at 1.5 percent as it assess the impact of the May and August rate cuts, we continue to see the risks as tilted firmly to the downside.</p>
<p>DETAILS</p>
<p>The RBA remains more than usually uncertain about the labour market. “Members noted that there continued to be considerably uncertainty about momentum in the domestic labour market and the extent to which domestic inflationary pressures would rise over the next few years.”</p>
<p>These concerns relate to the degree of slack currently in the labour market, with measures of underemployment suggesting that overall labour underutilisation remains high. Moreover, the Bank is concerned that while the expansion of LNG export capacity will make a significant contribution to growth over the coming years, its low labour intensity will not see a similar boost to employment.</p>
The Board is concerned about a negative feedback loop from housing into inflation. The minutes note that the risk of housing oversupply was “important for the inflation outlook because housing costs make up a significant share of the CPI basket”.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">The pressure on housing costs as measured by the CPI is likely to come through in both rents, which are barely growing, as well as new house purchase costs. Together, rents and new house prices make up 16 percent of the inflation basket and are the two largest components of the CPI.</div>
<div class="column">
<br>The impact of international monetary policy on the exchange rate continues to be a bugbear. The Board noted that “changes to expectations about central banks’ policies continues to have an important influence on global exchange rate developments”, after acknowledging that a rate risk in the US was not priced in until late 2017 and further easing was likely in Europe and the UK.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">They reiterated the comment that “an appreciating exchange rate could complicate the necessary economic adjustments”.</div>
<div class="column">
<br>OUTLOOK</div>
<div class="column">
<br>While the minutes did not include any explicit forward guidance, we think that the RBA retains a strong easing bias. With inflation set to remain below or at the bottom of the Bank’s 2-3 percent target band for the entire forecast period, we expect that the easing bias is quite strong, particularly when banks passed on only half the August rate cut to variable home loan customers.</div>
<div class="column">
<br>Our central case is that the cash rate will remain unchanged at 1.5 percent, but we see a clear risk of further easing given the low inflation outlook, where there is a lack of drivers for a meaningful pickup in prices.</div>
<div class="column">
<br>We think that the RBA will want to assess the impact of the May and August cuts on the labour market and housing market, while inflation data come into play when the Q3 CPI is published on 26 October. The exchange rate also will continue to be an important input into monetary policy deliberations given that it appreciated after the August rate cut and is near the high reached in April.<br><br>
</div>
<div class="column"><em>Felicity Emmett co-head of Australian economics, ANZ Research and can be contacted <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://au.linkedin.com/pub/felicity-emmett/5a/3ba/256" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></div>
<div class="column"><em> </em></div>
<div class="column"><em><em>Kieran Davies is an economist for ANZ and can be contacted <a href="https://www.anz.com/personal/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></em></div>
</div>
</div></body></html>

jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Uncertainty reigns in August RBA board minutes: ANZ 

<html><body>
<p>Consumers should not expect the recent variable rate cuts to last for long, a mortgage industry veteran, 1300 HomeLoan managing director John Kolenda says.</p>
<p>He expects many lenders to reprice sometime this year as the current margins are unsustainable with the additional costs banks are facing along with the pressures of return on equity for their shareholders, Kolenda said.</p>
<p>Kolenda said consumers can at least count on interest rates to stay low for the foreseeable future.</p>
<p>Some 17 more lenders have passed on the interest rate cut, according to finder.com.au.</p>
<p>This includes online banks who have cut interest rates from between 10 to 15 basis points.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/08/16/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-16%20at%2010.32.31%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/08/16/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-16%20at%2010.32.31%20AM.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/08/16/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-16%20at%2010.32.41%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/08/16/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-16%20at%2010.32.41%20AM.png" alt=""> </span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/08/16/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-16%20at%2010.32.47%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/08/16/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-16%20at%2010.32.47%20AM.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p><span><span> </span></span></p>
</body></html>

jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Variable rate cuts will not last long: John Kolenda

<html><body>
<p><span>Some 17 more lenders have passed on the interest rate cut, according to finder.com.au.</span></p>
<p><span>This includes online banks who have cut interest rates from between 10 to 15 basis points.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/08/16/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-16%20at%2010.32.31%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/08/16/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-16%20at%2010.32.31%20AM.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/08/16/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-16%20at%2010.32.41%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/08/16/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-16%20at%2010.32.41%20AM.png" alt=""> </span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/08/16/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-16%20at%2010.32.47%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/08/16/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-16%20at%2010.32.47%20AM.png" alt=""></span></p>
</body></html>

17 more lenders pass on cut following cash rate cut

<html><body>
<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/63706/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1"></p>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>On September 18 2016, Glenn Stevens will end his ten-year mandate as governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). His experience in the top job provides a wealth of lessons for the next generation of policymakers; that’s arguably his most important legacy.</p>
<p>A graduate from the University of Sydney and the University of Western Ontario in Canada, Stevens worked in the RBA research department between 1980 and 1992. He then held positions as department head, assistant governor (economic) and deputy governor. In 2006, he was appointed governor.</p>
<p>Throughout his tenure as governor, Stevens has had to deal with a highly volatile and generally fragile global economic and financial landscape. Domestically, he has been confronted with the end of the mining boom and a prolonged contraction of gross domestic product (GDP) below its potential level.</p>
<p>It is probably not an exaggeration to say that the ten years from 2006 to 2016 have been some of the most difficult economic times in post-war history. But it is exactly this highly complicated environment that provides a valuable learning opportunity for policymakers and for the economics profession more generally.</p>
<h2>The monetary policy framework</h2>
<p>The first lesson concerns the need for a “risk management” approach to monetary policy in a time of crisis.</p>
<p>The RBA’s monetary policy framework centres on an inflation target of 2%-3% on average over the medium term.</p>
<p>This means that actual inflation may deviate from the target in the short term in response to the cyclical conditions of the economy. For instance, when a negative demand shock reduces GDP below potential and causes unemployment to increase, reduced inflationary pressures allow the RBA to stimulate the economy by reducing the cash rate moderately.</p>
<p>In September 2008, when the global financial crisis hit the world, Australian inflation had been above target and on the rise for three consecutive quarters. This should have made the RBA prudent in cutting interest rates.</p>
<p>Instead, conditions worldwide were such that a change in monetary policy thinking was needed. The risks were simply too large to be treated with a normal policy approach.</p>
<p>Accordingly, the RBA moved to a “risk management" approach that, while broadly consistent with the flexible inflation-targeting framework, allowed for a quick (and much-needed) response.</p>
<p>As a result, the cash rate was reduced from 7.25% to 4.25% in the period September to December 2008 and then to 3% in the course of the first half of 2009. Comparatively, only the Bank of England cut its interest rate by as much as Australia.</p>
<p>The cut in the cash rate largely passed through to commercial lending rates, resulting in an increase in disposable income for many individuals. This then contributed (together with other factors, including the fiscal stimulus) to maintaining the Australian economy out of a recession.</p>
<p>It is highly likely that without this risk-management approach to monetary policy, Australia would have been much more severely affected by the global financial crisis.</p>
<h2>The limits of monetary policy</h2>
<p>The second lesson is that policymakers ought to be realistic and pragmatic about what monetary policy can and cannot deliver.</p>
<p>Through changes to the cash rate, monetary policy can affect the pace of real economic activity in the short term. But, in the long term, growth and unemployment are driven primarily by supply-side factors and monetary policy only affects inflation.</p>
<p>Moreover, the extent to which monetary policy can affect growth in the short term decreases as interest rates get lower. During the GFC, monetary policy effectively contributed to shielding the Australian economy because higher interest rates gave the RBA more room to cut.</p>
<p>But when interest rates are already low, the monetary policy space is reduced and further cuts are unlikely to produce significant effects.</p>
<p>Understanding the limits of monetary policy is particularly important in the current economic context.</p>
<p>The Australian economy has been operating below potential for several years now, as data from the International Monetary Fund suggests.</p>
<p>In response to this prolonged contraction, the RBA has reduced the interest rate to record low levels. It has reached the point where further cuts would probably be more damaging than beneficial.</p>
<p>Now more than ever recovery becomes a matter of fiscal policy interventions.</p>
<h2>How to use monetary policy</h2>
<p>The third lesson is about the use of monetary policy.</p>
<p>The inflation-targeting framework requires the RBA to set the cash rate having consideration for a variety of factors and data, including qualitative information received from conversations with businesses, investors and stakeholders.</p>
<p>In making the best possible use of these data and information, the RBA follows two guiding principles.</p>
<p>First, policy should not be driven by conclusions drawn from short runs of data. This then implies that the cash rate should not be fine-tuned continuously in response to marginal developments occurring month by month.</p>
<p>In normal circumstances, the interest rate ought to move gradually and rather infrequently to provide individuals (businesses and households) with some certainty about the course of monetary policy.</p>
<p>Second, monetary policy in Australia ought to be both outward- and forward-looking. An outward look is required because, as a small and open economy, Australia’s inflationary dynamics are heavily affected by developments on international markets.</p>
<p>This does not mean that the RBA should passively mimic the behaviour of other central banks. However, it does mean that the importance of international factors for the Australian economy should be adequately taken into account.</p>
<p>Forward-looking refers to the fact that forecasts ought to play a central role in the monetary policymaking process. To express this in Stevens’ own words:</p>
<p><em>"After all, if monetary policy takes some time – several years – to have its full effect on the economy and inflation, forecasts have to be at the centre of things, don’t they?"</em></p>
<p><em><span class="fn author-name">Fabrizio Carmignani is p</span>rofessor, Griffith Business School, Griffith University and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/fabrizio-carmignani-4375" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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The legacy of Glenn Stevens in three lessons

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<p><span>GUEST OBSERVER</span></p>
<p><span>“Record low interest rates”. This seems to be the headline of the year, having been used so many times it is hard to remember any other kind of interest rate. Each time we see this, expectations for another rate cut decrease momentarily, only to return to the same, pre-cut probability-levels after a few weeks. </span></p>
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<p><span>Figure 1 paints a clear picture of a similar short-term outlook, </span>yet weakening long-term expectations.</p>
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<p><img src="/images/2016/08/12/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-12%20at%209.45.34%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>While this graph does not include data since the rate cut (yields on 10 year treasuries have lifted a whopping 0.03 percent since the July levels shown in Figure 2), we can see almost identical movements at each maturity date from May to June and from June to July.</p>
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<p><span>Yields on 3 year bonds are down 0.05 percent, 5 year bonds are down 0.1 percent and 10 year bonds are down 0.2 percent. </span></p>
<p><span>This is almost a textbook example of yield curve inversion. In fact, yields on 90 day treasury bills in June were identical to those on 10 year bonds at 1.93 percent. </span></p>
<p><span>Other than perhaps transaction costs, there is no reason for an investor to take on the extra risk of longer term securities without any increase in expected return. </span></p>
<p><span>The RBA had little choice but to cut rates again. </span></p>
<p><span>Figure 2 shows a similar picture, with greater inversion in the short and medium-term (up until about 2022) and lower yields on long- term maturities. </span></p>
<p><span>This is a dangerous combination. </span></p>
<p><span>An interest rate cut effectively lowers the short-term cash rate </span>(i.e. 90 day yield), which normalises (steepens) the yield curve.</p>
<p><span>In theory, this stimulates the economy by making borrowing cheaper and incentivising banks to borrow at the short-term rate and lend out at the higher long-term rate. If the curve continues to flatten out (as it did since the last rate cut in May) then this impact is almost entirely negated. Like a see-saw, rates will continue to decrease until long-term expectations increase or at least stabilise. </span></p>
<p><span><em>For more information, <a href="https://secretagent.com.au/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</em></span></p>
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Rates will continue to decrease: Secret Agent 

Outgoing Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens highlights limitations and constraints of a super-low interest rate environment

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<p>Aussie Home Loans executive chairman John Symond says low interest rates would ensure the property market stay robust. </p>
<p>"I am expecting low rates for a decade.</p>
<p>" I'm not saying it won't go up, but we won't see 6 to 7 percent interest rates for a decade plus," he told Fairfax Media.</p>
<p>"Mortgages are in a good shape," he said. </p>
<p>"People are still making the same repayment when interest rates were 8 percent.</p>
<p>"The average mortgage holder is two years in front. I'm not saying WA, but the eastern seaboard ... particularly those who have bought property five years ago."</p>
<p>"We took a survey and the net asset value of all the areas where we have loans ...there was a 40 percent equity. In NSW, 50 percent," he said. </p>
<p>Aussie Home Loans has opened its 200th store in Sydney.</p>
<p>He says there is the potential for a 10 to 15 percent price growth in some capital city markets during the next three years as long as employment remained steady.</p>
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Low interest rates for a decade: John Symonds' forecast

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<div class="column">GUEST OBSERVER</div>
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<div class="column">In his final speech as Reserve Bank Governor, Glenn Stevens highlighted the limitations and constraints of a super-low interest rate environment.</div>
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<div class="column">“I have serious reservations about the extent of reliance on monetary policy around the world. It isn't that the central banks were wrong to do what they could, it is that what they could do was not enough, and never could be enough, fully to restore demand after a period of recession associated with a very substantial debt build-up”.</div>
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<br>Home loans: The number of loans (commitments) for budding home owners (owner-occupiers) rose by 1.2 percent in June. Excluding the refinancing of dwellings, the number of loans was up by 2.1 percent.</div>
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<br>Consumer confidence: The Westpac/Melbourne Institute survey of consumer sentiment rose by 2 percent in August to 101.0. The confidence index is up 1.6 percent on a year ago. The survey was conducted August 1st-4th.</div>
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<br>The housing finance data has implications for banks, building material suppliers and retailers. The consumer confidence figures have implications for finance providers, retailers, and companies dependent on consumer and business spending.</div>
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<br>What does it all mean?</div>
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<br>The Reserve Bank Governor has used his last public forum as a seminal speech to discuss a number of wide ranging issues from inflation targeting, the effect super low interest rates, a review of the past decade and also what “normal” growth may be in the current environment. The Governor did ask a lot of questions but as is the case with the Reserve Bank left it up to the public for interpretation.</div>
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<br>However the section of the speech that focussed on looking ahead, discussed the constraints of monetary policy. The Governor highlighted that monetary policy on its own is not enough to boost growth significantly. In fact a combination of public and private investment would be needed to support growth over the medium term. Interestingly the Governor did suggest that the current inflation target is still the right methodology to support longer-term growth outcomes.</div>
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<br>When it comes to the outlook for rates the Governor suggested that Australia is not in isolation and the negative and super low interest rates on a global front has also pushed the Reserve Bank in that direction.</div>
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<div class="column">“We in Australia have done fewer such things, but we are connected to the world, and the effects of policies adopted elsewhere condition the policy choices available to us”.</div>
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<br>The latest data on the housing sector could be classified as somewhat old news given that it predates the Reserve Bank interest rate cut last week. What it does do is provide a useful barometer for housing activity earlier this year. And in that context housing activity remains solid. The value of loans to build new homes stood at a just under $3 billion – easing modestly from the record high of $3.45 billion in March. There is a healthy pipeline of work, with owner occupiers likely to dominate home building and buying.</div>
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<div class="column">Interestingly the proportion of fixed rate loans fell sharply<br><ul>
<li>over the past two months to just 13.4 per cent – a six month</li>
<li>low. In addition the number of home loan refinancing transactions fell for the past two months, although it remains well above decade averages. It may be the expectation of further rates cuts seems to have resulted in home owners holding off from fixing rates. No doubt with the latest rate cut and intense competition by lenders it is likely that more home owners will re-evaluate their home loans in coming months. The anticipated lift in refinancing will eventually provide additional savings to household budgets – injecting fresh spending power into the economy.</li>
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The average loan size recorded a sizable 5.7 per cent in June. In fact the gain was the strongest percentage increase in nine months. The May rate cut may have been catalyst for the lift in home loan size, providing mortgages holders with the opportunity to comfortably service larger loans. It should be noted that the average home loan is also influenced by home prices, composition of borrowers and the geographic location of home purchases.<br><p>The monthly consumer confidence data is now merely useful as a check against the timelier weekly survey. The ANZ-Roy Morgan survey has the same number of survey respondents as the monthly series, has been running over the same number of years and covers the same questions but is conducted each week. And what is clear from both surveys is that confidence levels are a little higher than where they were a month ago. The consumer confidence reading on both fronts remains “ok”, with consumers modestly optimistic about life. </p>
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<p>What do the figures show?</p>
<p>Housing finance - number</p>
<p>The number of loans (commitments) for budding home owners (owner-occupiers) rose by 1.2 per cent in June after falling by 0.8 per cent in June. Excluding the refinancing of dwellings, the number of loans was up by 2.1 per cent.</p>
The number of new home loans was up by 6.7 per cent on a year ago.<br>Loans by owner-occupiers for the construction of homes rose by 2.1 per cent in June.</div>
<div class="column">Loans to buy newly-erected dwellings rose by 2.7 per cent.</div>
<div class="column">Loans for the purchase of established dwellings (excluding refinancing) rose by 1 per cent.</div>
<div class="column">The number of refinancing transactions fell by 0.4 per cent. </div>
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<p><span>Housing finance - value</span></p>
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<li> The value of new housing commitments (owner occupier and investment) rose by 2.3 per cent in June after rising by 1.8 per cent in May.</li>
<li>Owner-occupier loans rose by 1.8 per cent while investment loans rose by 3.2 per cent.</li>
<li> The value of loans by owner-occupiers and investors to build new homes fell by 1.3 per cent in June after rising by 3.5 per cent in May.</li>
<li>The value of loans to build new homes eased further from the record highs of $3.45 billion in March to $2.99 billion in June.</li>
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Housing finance – other statistics<br><p><span></span><span>The proportion of first-time buyers </span><span>in the home loan market rose from a 12-year low of 14.2 percent in May to 14.3 percent in June. (However the figures take into account refinancing loans and as such the figures may misrepresent the true situation). </span></p>
<p><span>The proportion of fixed rate loans </span><span>fell from 14.7 percent to 13.4 percent in June. And the </span><span>average home loan </span><span>across Australia stood at $360,100 in June, up 3.5 percent on a year ago. </span></p>
<p><span>Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment:</span></p>
<p>The Westpac/Melbourne Institute index of consumer confidence rose by 2 percent in August to 101.0. The confidence index is up 1.6 percent on a year ago.</p>
<p>The current conditions index rose by 1.3 percent while the expectations index rose by 2.4 percent.</p>
Four of the five components of the index rose in August:<br><p>The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was up by 1 per cent;  The estimate of family finances over the next year was up by 4.3 per cent;</p>
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<li> Economic conditions over the next 12 months was up by 3.5 per cent;</li>
<li> Economic conditions over the next 5 years was down by 0.7 per cent;</li>
<li> The measure on whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was up by 1.6 per cent.</li>
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Gender &amp; demographics: Men (index reading of 104.1, up 1.5 per ent) were still more optimistic than Women 98.1, up 2.4 percent). The sentiment index for young people rose by 3.9 percent to 112.9 in August. Across the other demographics: 25-44 years (index 103.0, up by 1.1 percent); 45 years plus (index 96.9, up 2.1 per cent).<br><p>  Housing outlook: A good time to buy a dwelling? – Index up 10.1 per cent in the month and up 9.2 per cent on the year.</p>
<p>  Housing Finance data is produced monthly by the Bureau of Statistics and shows commitments by lenders, such as banks, to provide finance for housing purposes. The lending figures relate to those looking to buy or build homes to live in as well as those seeking to buy or build homes for investment purposes. Generally people get their finance organised first, so the figures are regarded as a leading indicator on the housing market.</p>
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<p>  Westpac and the Melbourne Institute release the Index of Consumer Sentiment each month. According to Melbourne Institute: “The survey of consumer sentiment was first undertaken in 1973 and was conducted on a quarterly basis until 1976, a six-weekly basis from 1976 to 1986, and has been conducted monthly ever since.” Confident consumers may be more inclined to spend, especially on major items.</p>
<p>What are the implications for interest rates and investors?</p>
  The housing sector will continue to be a key driver of growth, given the amount of home building on the horizon. Home prices are lifting, but investors need to be more cautious about the outlook. Arguably we are near the point of maximum velocity. The plethora of cranes dotting skylines across the country indicate that plenty of sparkling new apartments will be coming onto the market over the next few years</div>
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<div class="column">CommSec expects a further interest rate cut in November. </div>
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<div class="column"><em>Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a></em></div>
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RBA Governor questions benefit of lower rates: CommSec's Savanth Sebastian

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER </p>
<p>The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment increased by 2.0 percent in August from 99.1 in July to 101.0 in August. </p>
<p>The survey was conducted over the first four days of August, covering the Reserve Bank’s August 2 announcement of a 0.25 percent cut in the overnight cash rate from 1.75 percent to 1.5 percent.</p>
<p>The response to this development has been much more muted than we saw in May when the Bank last cut the rate, from 2.0 percent to 1.75 percent.</p>
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<p><span>On that earlier occasion the Index lifted by an impressive 8.5 percent from 95.1 to 103.2. That was an exceptionally large positive response and much stronger than the average rise following rate cuts historically. </span></p>
<p><span>That can be explained by a number of factors. Firstly, there was a larger surprise element to the May decision with, arguably, significantly less intense media speculation than we saw in August. Secondly the standard variable mortgage rate offered by most banks was reduced by the full 0.25 percent, whereas in August the four major banks only reduced variable rates by 0.10- 0.14 percent. Finally, the Index was coming from a significantly lower starting point in May (95.1) than in August (99.1). </span></p>
<p><span>Another development that may have unnerved respondents in August has been political unease. With the government having been returned with a wafer thin one seat majority in the House of Representatives and considerable change in the Senate, respondents might also be somewhat uncertain about future prospects around potential political stability. </span></p>
<p><span>Finally we have to accept that as interest rates go progressively lower some respondents, particularly those who may not have a mortgage, may become more unnerved about the signal that record low rates is sending about the economy. For example, in today’s result, while respondents with a mortgage responded strongly, there was a 1.3% fall in the confidence of those respondents who wholly own their properties. </span></p>
<p><span>That negative might have been expected to be even bigger for respondents that have low debt and rely on interest income. However, the decision by banks to raise some term deposit rates following the RBA rate cut has instead given a notable boost – sentiment amongst retirees in particular posted a strong 7% rise. </span></p>
<p><span>Notably, consumers do not expect to see more interest rate relief. In our special question around the outlook for mortgage rates, 37% of respondents expect mortgage rates to rise over the next 12 months; 36 percent expect rates to be steady; and just 27 percent expect further rate cuts. </span></p>
<p><span>Overall the lift in the Index is still consistent with an improved outlook for the Australian economy. We are now back in the range where optimists outnumber pessimists. Over the last thirty months there have only been eight when optimists have been in the ascendency with three of those months figuring in the last four. </span></p>
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<p><span>In particular, prospects for the housing market appear to have been boosted by the rate cut. The confidence of those respondents who hold a mortgage lifted by 7 percent. </span></p>
<p><span>Westpac’s Index of ‘time to buy a dwelling’ rose by 10.1 percent to be up by 9.2 percent over the last year. In particular, the key states of NSW and Victoria showed strong improvements. The Index lifted by 19 percent in NSW and by 12.8 percent in Victoria. This is particularly significant for the key Sydney market where the Index is now 61 percent above the average of the second half of 2015 when confidence collapsed in the Sydney housing market. </span></p>
<p><span>The Westpac Melbourne Institute House Price Expectations Index was basically flat for the month but, consistent with the ‘time to buy’ index is signalling considerably more confidence than we saw at the start of the year. This Index has increased by 28 percent since the end of 2015. </span></p>
<p><span>Despite the lift in overall confidence prospects in the labour market deteriorated somewhat. The Westpac Melbourne Institute Unemployment Expectations Index increased by 1.7 percent from 138.8 to 141.2 (recall that higher reads indicate higher expectations for unemployment and a worsening outlook for labour market conditions). The Index is still 4.4 percent below its level from a year ago. However the promising improvement we saw in the Index near the end of last appears to have stalled over the course of this year. </span></p>
<p><span>Both of the components of the Index that assess family finances increased in the month. The ‘family finances vs a year ago’ sub- index lifted by 1.0 percent and the ‘family finances over the next 12 months’ sub-index was up by 4.3 percent. This is the second highest read on the outlook for finances since October 2013 although there has been no comparable outperformance for the backward- looking component, which is 9.6 percent below its level from a year ago. Note that in its Statement on Monetary Policy the Reserve Bank gives most attention to this component of the Index. </span></p>
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<p><span>Short term confidence in the economy improved. The ‘economic conditions over the next 12 months’ sub-index lifted by 3.5 percent to be up by 10.5 percent over the year. While there was little movement in the ‘economic conditions over the next 5 years’ sub-index (down 0.7 percent) that Index is also up by an encouraging 11.5 percent over the year. </span></p>
<p><span>Retail prospects improved marginally with the ‘time to buy a major item’ sub-index up 1.6 percent (although still down 2.7 percent on a year ago).</span></p>
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<p><span>The Reserve Bank Board next meets on September 6. Having cut rates at its last meeting the Board is almost certain to keep rates on hold in September. However it is clear from the Bank’s recent Statement on Monetary Policy that it holds an easing bias. That sentiment has encouraged markets to expect a further cut in November following the release of the next inflation report. The case for a cut is based on Australia’s ongoing low inflation environment. </span></p>
<p><span>However, by November, consistent with some of the messages in this survey we expect that economic conditions will have firmed sufficiently for the Bank to be more patient with its inflation objective. It may recognise that rigid adherence to the current inflation target of 2–3 percent might not be the best way to run policy in this current low inflation world. </span></p>
<p><span>Accordingly we expect that the Bank will decide to hold rates steady in November</span></p>
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<p><span><span><em>BILL EVANS</em></span><em> is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>. <em>Justin Smirk is ‎senior economist, Westpac Group and can be contacted <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/about-westpac/westpac-group/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></em></span></p>
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Case for rate cuts based on Australia’s ongoing low inflation: Westpac's Bill Evans

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>As expected, the statement fell short of providing explicit forward guidance, but we interpret the larger number of risks to the outlook and the RBA’s forecast that average underlying inflation would be stuck at the bottom of the 2-3 percent target band by the end of 2018 as a strong easing bias.</p>
<p>Our base case is that rates remain on hold at 1.5 percent, but we see a clear risk of further cuts given the RBA expects persistently low inflation and with banks passing on only half of this week’s rate cut to home loan customers. The AUD is also important given the RBA thinks it still poses a “significant source of uncertainty” around the outlook.</p>
<p>In our view, today’s statement reinforces this risk. With the cash rate now close to the 1 percent floor for the cash rate, we think the RBA would be looking more closely at unconventional options if downside risks to the outlook materialise.</p>
<p>Persistently low inflation points to an easing bias. As expected, the RBA’s forecast profile for underlying inflation was unchanged, showing inflation at or below the bottom of the 2-3 percent target band for the entire forecast period.</p>
<p>Importantly, in our opinion, the RBA’s initial forecast for Q4 2018 showed average inflation remaining at the bottom of the target band rather than returning to the 2.5 percent midpoint. We think this is a dovish signal, given that the RBA cut rates this week and the forecasts are based on market pricing, which was for another rate cut.</p>
<p>Near-term growth was revised higher, but the RBA is more uncertain about the outlook. The RBA revised near-term growth higher given Q1 GDP was significantly higher than it had expected, but left the rest of its forecast profile for modest growth unchanged. Unemployment was expected to “move only a little lower”, with a degree of spare capacity in the labour market for some time. The statement highlighted the uncertainty about the outlook, citing China, the labour market, the housing market, and the exchange rate.</p>
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<p>We think the RBA would be looking more closely at unconventional options if downside risks to the economy materialise. We think the RBA would have to look more closely at unconventional policies if, say, the economy takes a turn for the worse, the exchange rate unexpectedly strengthened, and/or low inflation expectations kept actual inflation below the target band. The RBA thought the likelihood of using such options was “very remote”, but we are much less sure given the cash rate is close to the RBA’s 1 percent floor.</p>
<p>Governor Stevens may talk about the limits to monetary policy next week.</p>
<p>The Governor is speaking on 10 August at what might be his last speaking engagement before his term finishes on 17 September. We think he may cover familiar ground, emphasising that central banks are having to shoulder too much of the burden of supporting growth and argue that there are limits to what can be achieved with monetary policy. He may also repeat his support for the RBA’s inflation targeting framework and argue that tougher regulations have put the banks in a better place. </p>
<p><span><em>Kieran Davies is an economist for ANZ and can be contacted <a href="https://www.anz.com/personal/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></span></p>
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