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One of mainstream media’s favourite “what if?” scenarios in relation to the nationwide property boom is “what is the RBA changes its mind and lifts interest rates?”.

The answer is: it won’t make any difference unless they deliver four or five rises in the official interest rate in rapid succession. And even then it might not halt the runaway train.

There are two reasons why a rate rise wouldn’t make much of a difference:

<ol>
<li>The boom hasn’t been caused by low interest rates</li>
	<li>History shows that it requires five, six or seven rate rises to douse a hot market.</li>
</ol>
Economists tend to display their ignorance of real estate dynamics by attributing everything that happens in residential property to the level of interest rates. So, because real estate is booming and interest rates are at record lows, the simplistic economist mind reasons that one must have caused the other.

But, as I outlined in detail in this column in February, there are multiple reasons for the strong up-cycle in the housing market. I have 15 dot points on my list of drivers of this national boom. Low interest rates comprise just one of them.

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A change to one of the 15 factors won’t stop the strong market.

Government stimulus measures comprise just one of the 15 factors, so the end of JobKeeper (which is one of numerous stimulus measures) won’t halt the market momentum.

Nor would a rise in the official interest rate. Or two rises. In the past four decades, Australia has had two genuine, prolonged, nationwide property booms: in the late Eighties and in the early Noughties.

During the extraordinary boom at the end of the 1980s, mortgage rates were in double digits but (contrary to economic theory) Australia experienced rapidly rising prices pretty much anywhere. Interest rates kept rising but the boom raged on. Mortgage rates hit 17-18% before the boom stopped.

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The boom that prevailed from 2001 to 2004 happened with mortgage rates much higher than now – 7-8%. There were a couple of interest rate rises amid that boom but the momentum was not halted. There were a couple more rate rises in 2004 but by then the boom was already subsiding after three years of big growth. Rate rises were not the cause of the boom ending.

In 2007 and 2008, before the GFC, there were signs of an up-cycle in the housing market. Then we had eight interest rate rises and the onset of the GFC – and the price rises ended.

The GFC inspired massive Federal Government stimulus measures, including major assistance for first-home buyers, plus six rapid-fire interest rate increases. As a result of the combination of those factors, prices rose in strongly in 2009 and 2010. Then we saw seven interest rate increases in a short period.

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Since 2011 we have had 18 reductions in the official interest rate but, until recently, no sign of a nationwide real estate boom. In that period, we saw big price growth in Sydney and Melbourne 2013 to 2017, but that did not happen elsewhere. Amid that period of very low and falling interest rates, many of our major markets, including Perth and Darwin, had steadily falling house prices.

The message from analysing property prices and interest rate changes is that it’s only in periods of multiple changes to rates to rapid succession that we see markets apparently reacting – but the influence of interest rates is unclear because there are other major factors in play at the same time.
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It won’t make any difference unless they deliver four or five rises in the official interest rate in rapid succession, and even then it might not halt the runaway property train.

terryryder

Can interest rate hikes stop the property boom? Not a chance: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT INSIGHT

Apparently there’s a crisis in residential real estate. Prices are rising and it’s an outrage! That’s how mainstream media has characterised current market trends, with strong buyer demand and rising property values. We’re seeing headlines like …

<ul>
<li>“Property intervention looms as Sydney market hits record high”</li>
	<li>“Runaway house prices are this year’s looming issue no one wants to touch” </li>
	<li>“Superannuation report warns of housing catastrophe” and</li>
	<li> “Whose job it is to douse this home price bonfire?”.</li>
</ul>
Journalists love a crisis. If there isn’t a genuine one, they’ll work hard to create a make- believe one.

When prices were falling in the major cities it was a crisis and now that markets have turned around that’s a crisis also. Somebody should do something!

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The reality is that nothing terribly serious is happening. For the first time in almost 20 years, we have a genuine nationwide property boom. And, in many ways, this is a good thing.

Markets in Perth and Western Australia have had half a dozen years of down markets, with prices falling. Now, at last, there is recovery. Vacancies are low, rents are rising, first-home buyers are active and prices are starting to head north. Most Western Australians, I imagine, are happy about it.

In Darwin, there’s been a similar scenario. Six or seven years of a falling market – and now, thanks to an improving economy, a strong virus-control situation and reduced vacancies, there’s a turnaround. Darwin, for the first time since 2014, has a pattern of increasing property values. Nobody is protesting in the streets of the Northern Territory capital.

Brisbane has been in the doldrums also. Its prices haven’t been falling like Perth and Darwin, but they haven’t been escalating either. For the past 2-3 years, many pundits have forecast the Brisbane market would rise to the top of the real estate tree, with long overdue price escalation. But it hasn’t happened – until now.

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Boosted by an uplift in infrastructure spending, interstate migration to South-East Queensland and the prospect of a Brisbane Olympics, there has been a stunning increase in buying activity in the Queensland capital. This is starting to translate into significant price increases – at last, for the first time in more than a decade. For most Brisbane households, it’s a cause for celebration.

It’s a similar story in Adelaide and Canberra. Serious price growth is long overdue.

Across many parts of regional Australia, prices are rising for the first time in a decade. Some towns still have property values lower than they were 10 years ago. For home-owners in these places, the uplift seen in the past 6-9 months is a cause for celebration.

<h2>Crisis? What crisis?</h2>

From many perspectives, the property boom is a good and healthy thing, with benefits for the nation.

In the past 12 months, the most active cohort in markets across Australia has been the first- home-buyer cohort. Government assistance measures have never been higher and interest have never been lower – and first-timers have been inspired to take action.

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And now that prices are rising, I imagine most of those who bought for the first time in the past year are delighted. Why wouldn’t they be? The uplift in values is increasing their equity and easing the so-called debt crisis shouted by mainstream media, which has told us to expect a disaster for young Australians who bought with only a 5% deposit (through one of the Federal Government schemes).

For those Australians who see their homes and/or their investment properties as the basis of their wealth and the cornerstone of their retirement, it’s a positive. And it’s a win for nation as well, because more people will be able to fund their own retirements based on the value of their properties.

Right now, Australians are buying residential property like never before. I’ve just completed the Autumn 2021 edition of The Price Predictor Index and the uplift in sales activity is quite extraordinary.

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When people are out there buying real estate, businesses boom and jobs are created. The sale of a home generally means two households are relocating. And that process creates business for real estate agencies, buyers’ agents, valuation firms, law firms and conveyancers, building and pest inspectors, removal companies, tradespeople and businesses that sell furniture, household goods and many other things.

This real estate boom is underpinning the economic recovery that is stunning economists who didn’t see it coming (they got it wrong yet again). It’s creating energy, excitement and optimism, qualities sorely needed by the nation.

It’s a decidedly good thing.
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When prices were falling in the major cities it was a crisis and now that markets have turned around that’s a crisis also, somebody should do something!

What property crisis? The market is booming: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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Expert Observer

The big dilemma facing many Australians is whether to confront the frenetic markets in many parts of the nation – or wait for things to settle down before seeking to buy.

I can understand people wanting to avoid the circumstances they currently face in so many locations: properties are selling very quickly, sometimes even before being formally marketed, and often for prices well above the asking price or price guide.

If you want to buy safely and sensibly with due diligence, it’s difficult to compete with cash buyers purchasing properties sight-unseen via a phone call. Surely it would be more sensible to wait until the frenzy dies down and conditions become more normal.

Actually, no. I think it’s a mistake to wait.

I don’t think the boom is a short-term fad, as some in media have suggested. This market scenario has been building for the past six months or so, it’s underpinned by multiple strong factors and it will extend throughout 2021 and into next year.

It’s a genuine nationwide real estate boom, the kind that we see only rarely in Australia. The last one was 2001-2002-2003 and before that it was in the late 1980s.

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These events happen for identifiable reasons and this one has many factors. My list of influences, which I published in this space a month ago, has 16 dot points. It’s not about low interest rates and it won’t be stalled by the end of JobKeeper. The Reserve Bank might change its mind and lift the official interest rate, but the boom will roll on.

So if you wait until it dies down before buying, you may be waiting a long time and you’ll be paying a lot more for your next home or investment property. If you delay until saner times, you could conceivably be paying 20% more. That means a property worth $500,000 now will be priced around $600,000. A $1 million property will cost $1.2 million.

We already have many suburbs and towns across Australia where the median house price is now 15% or 20% higher than it was a year ago.

Sunshine Beach on the Sunshine Coast has risen from $1.23 million to over $2 million in the space of 12 months.

A $600,000 purchase a year ago on the Sunshine Coast is now worth between $700,000 and $750,000, based on the growth in median house prices for locations such as Birtinya, Mt Coolum and Coolum Beach.

An investment of $550,000 to $650,000 12 months ago in the Central Coast market north of Sydney would now be worth $90,000 to $100,000 more, based on the growth in median prices in locations such as Long Jetty, Berkeley Vale and Umina Beach.

But many markets are only just getting started. Rapid price escalation is likely to continue well into next year. The most conservative of the forecasters, the bank economists, are predicting big growth this year and next year.

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So if you’re ready to get into the market now, don’t wait. You need to find a way to cut through the current frenzy and get the property you want.

If you’re an investor, there are locations in Australia with the credentials for long-term price growth but not yet “bonkers”.

The best way to proceed is to get your finances sorted, engage a reliable buyers’ agent, give them clear parameters and let them go find you a good investment property in a location with long-term growth drivers.

Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au

ryder@hotspotting.com.au

twitter.com/hotspotting
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I don’t think the boom is a short-term fad, as some in media have suggested

Buy in a frenetic market, or wait it out? Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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Expert Observer

City-based investors are making schoolboy errors amid the frenzy that pervades many property markets across Australia.

They’re selecting regional properties recklessly, they’re committing without proper due diligence and often they’re paying way too much.

“Buy in haste, repent at leisure” will become the catchcry for many investors in the future.

Much of what’s happening in this national property boom arises from the fundamental failing of most Australians who attempt property investment: they’re herd animals.

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The relatively few who are switched on were buying six or nine months ago. What’s happening now in our property markets was foreseeable and it was predicted by Hotspotting and by others who truly understand real estate dynamics, like Simon Pressley of Propertyology.

Investors who make it their business to stay informed, who have built a team of trusted advisers and who are research-based in their decision-making were in the market well ahead of the rampaging pack.

But they’re the exceptions. Most simply follow the herd. They’re in the market now, or trying to be, because they heard there’s a boom on. 

They haven’t done any work or thought too deeply about it, they’ve simply joined the stampede.

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Right now, it feels like you could stick a map of Australian on the wall, throw a dart at it, buy wherever it lands - and make money in the next 6-12 months.

But what about the longer term? Does the location of choice have the credentials to provide sustainable long-term growth? Even in rapidly-rising markets, you need to make good choices about location.

Having picked a random location, many are buying sight-unseen and not applying the usual checks and balances. They’re viewing a property online, making a phone call and buying on the spot.

They say the camera doesn’t lie, but the person wielding the camera or the computer software often does. And what about building and pest inspections?

To complete the trifecta of colossal mistakes, buyers are often paying above market value. They think they’re getting a bargain because they’re a city resident buying in a regional area and the target properties appear cheap.

I had a recent conversation with a Sydney resident about the market in a Queensland regional centre where typical houses cost in the $300,000s. He went online while we were speaking and looked at properties for sale. His reaction: “Wow, that’s really cheap!” He was ready to buy on the spot.

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But while the homes he viewed may have seemed cheap relative to Sydney, they may well have been over-priced in terms of local values. Many vendors are asking silly prices because they’ve heard that many buyers are doing silly things.

As a result of this kind of activity, median prices are rising rapidly – and local buyers are complaining because they’re being priced out of their own markets by buyers from the big cities.

Everyone involved in the process, except perhaps vendors, would prefer more normal markets. But what we have are abnormal conditions, created by a series of events and circumstances which have been building over the past 6-9 months.

It’s not about the low level of interest rates, it’s being generated by the economic and other circumstances which I discussed in this column four weeks ago – 16 dot points on my list of factors generating Australia’s first genuine nationwide property boom in 20 years. 

But fast-rising prices may not cover the mistakes that many investors are currently making.

Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au

ryder@hotspotting.com.au

twitter.com/hotspotting
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They’re selecting regional properties recklessly, they’re committing without proper due diligence and often they’re paying way too much.

City-based investors making schoolboy errors in regional investments: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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Expert Observer

There are multiple new pieces of evidence of the national real estate boom emerging every day.

The monthly price data published on 1 March by CoreLogic will attract lots of media attention for the raw data, but the most significant snippet amongst the figures is that all 15 market jurisdictions (8 capital cities and 7 regional areas) recorded house price growth in February.

It’s rare for all the nation’s markets to be rising in unison and so it’s unusual to have a genuine nationwide property boom – but we certainly have one now. The national averages are a 2.3% rise for the month and a 4.7% increase for the latest quarter – and those numbers shout “boom!”

With house prices rising as buyers pay top dollar for homes, a new survey by RateMyAgent shows that vendor sale price happiness has risen strongly in the past year.

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The survey shows seller satisfaction is tracking at 56% – the highest result ever reported by the website. The quarterly Price Expectation Report asked 51,500 vendors if their sale price was above, below or in line with expectations and revealed seller satisfaction had risen 10% since mid-2020.

Regional areas reported higher levels of sale price satisfaction. The Mallee in Victoria, which includes Mildura and Swan Hill, is the happiest region (70% rate of happiness), followed by Hobart (67%), Richmond-Tweed (66%), Canberra (64%) and The Riverina in NSW (62%).

Mark Armstrong, executive director at RateMyAgent, expects the seller’s market to continue throughout 2021. “We’ve got an incredible combination of strong buyer demand, a significant increase in supply and historically low interest rates,” he says.

The result of this survey is yet another indicator that Australia is immersed in a nationwide property upcycle of major proportions.

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The major banks and economists generally are forecasting a boom this year and next year, but the boom they’re predicting is already here.

Westpac and REA are the latest to join a chorus of commentators forecasting big price growth throughout 2021 and 2022.

REA’s Property Outlook Report 2021 says Australians have never been wealthier, which is reflected in the “rise and rise” of the luxury property market. “This unique trend of house price growth during a recession did not occur during the GFC or the early 1990s recession,” the report says. “Towards the end of 2020, views per listing on realestate.com.au for homes over $10m increased 150%.”

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The report says investors are returning to the market, with a focus on regional Australia, which will again outperform the rest of the country. While views per listing rose 16% in capital cities during the second half of 2020, the increase in regional Australia was 44%. 

Westpac economists have lifted their forecast for dwelling prices and are now expecting 10% gains in both 2021 and 2022. Westpac chief economist Bill Evans expects the market will not flatten until 2023.

Just how strong markets already are is shown in recent data on clearance rates. Last week the capital cities achieved an average clearance rate of 84%, according to CoreLogic.

Melbourne had 1,061 auctions, up from 635 over the previous week, with 82% successful. In Sydney, 769 homes were taken to auction, compared to 625 over the previous week, with a preliminary clearance rate of 88%. Canberra recorded the highest clearance rate at 92%, while Adelaide (85%) and Brisbane (79%) also did well. 

With so much buoyancy in markets across the nation, it’s perhaps inevitable that mainstream media would seek the negatives to highlight. And the perennial favourite is beat-up headlines about bubbles and everyone being priced out of the market.

But Commonwealth Bank CEO Matt Comyn has dampened concerns about rising house prices, saying the growth spurt is being fueled by owner-occupiers, not investors piling into the Sydney and Melbourne markets.

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Comyn has underlined several distinctive characteristics of today’s market, compared with earlier property booms. He says that in the middle of the last decade, more than half of new lending in Sydney and NSW was flowing to investors. “If you go back to 2014-15, most of that growth was coming out of Sydney and Melbourne,” he says. 

“At the moment, the fastest-growing capital cities are Darwin and Perth, then Canberra. There’s a number of regional locations that are growing very rapidly. In fact, Sydney and Melbourne are not strong on a relative basis.”

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank chief executive Marnie Baker has highlighted the strength of the regional property market and owner-occupiers in driving recent price growth. “Our own book is 85% owner-occupied, so it’s actually not being led by investors,” she says. “That’s a difference that we need to take into account.”

Another major reason we don’t need to fear the real estate boom and its consequences on citizens is that the interest paid by Australian households has dropped markedly. The share of household income being used to pay interest on debt has fallen to the lowest level in 35 years, freeing up tens of billions of dollars a year to be spent in other ways.

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The interest paid by Australian households has dropped to 5.5% of disposable income, the lowest since the mid-1980s, analysis by AMP Capital shows. That compares to 9% in mid-2019 and 13% in 2008.

The decline has been driven by lower official interest rates, which were reduced to an unprecedented low of 0.1% in November.

AMP Capital estimates the fall in interest payments as a share of disposable income is injecting an extra $9 billion into the household sector each quarter compared with two years ago. “That in turn has supported consumer confidence and spending,” it says.

Many borrowers have used savings from lower interest payments to reduce debt. The Reserve Bank says “substantial payments” were made into mortgage offset and redraw accounts between March and December last year. This amounted to about $40 billion.

Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au

ryder@hotspotting.com.au

twitter.com/hotspotting
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The most significant snippet amongst the figures is that all 15 market jurisdictions (8 capital cities and 7 regional areas) recorded house price growth in February.


It’s unusual to have a genuine nationwide property boom – but we certainly have one now: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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Expert Observer

The standout feature of the behaviour of our politicians is the degree to which they are out of touch with their constituents and the impact of the decisions they make.

In the real estate sphere, the most startling recent example was the knee-jerk decision-making of state and territory governments in favour of pandemic-affected tenants, without any regard for the impact on the mum-and-dad households who own an investment property.

Equally, our elected representatives collectively appear oblivious to the rental shortage crisis that exists in most (not all) locations across the nation.

The situation has become dire in many parts of Australia, with queues of prospective tenants showing up at open houses and candidates offering more than the asking rent and/or offering to pay six or 12 months in advance to beat the competition.

Here’s the current situation …

According to the monthly report from SQM Research, vacancy rates in our already-tight rental markets fell in six of the capital cities and were unchanged in the other two in January.

The national average vacancy rate fell from 2.2% in December to 2% in January, but five capital cities – Perth, Adelaide, Canberra, Darwin and Hobart – all have vacancy rates below 1%, while Brisbane sits at 1.7%.

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Throughout regional Australia, many centres have vacancy rates below 1% in what represents a national rental crisis for people seeking tenancies. It’s common to find regional locations where the vacancy rate is closer to zero than to 1%.

Keep in mind the industry benchmark is that vacancy rates below 3% represent a shortage of rental properties. Below 1% is a dire situation.

The two biggest cities, where vacancies are highest, showed marked improvements in January, with Sydney falling from 3.6% in December to 3.2%, and Melbourne falling from 4.7% to 4.4%.

SQM CEO Louis Christopher says the figures provide more evidence the worse is over for landlords in the Sydney and Melbourne rental markets. 

He says: “The falls in vacancy rates for the month in those two cities, combined with the increased tightness in other cities and regions, has now brought rental vacancy rates down to below where they were prior to the outbreak of Covid19.”

Christopher says the data, overall, suggests that 2021 will remain largely a tenant’s market in the inner-city areas of the biggest cities “but will also very much remain a landlord’s market for regional Australia”. It would add to that the smaller capital cities – as shown earlier, six of them have ultra-tight rental markets. 
He also notes that rents for both houses and units have risen in the capital cities, on average, over the past month.

In annual terms, the national average is a 10% rise in house rents and a 4% increase in apartments rents.

The growth has been higher in regional markets than in the capital cities, with Sydney and Melbourne rents still lower on average than a year ago.

But there have been strong rises in Perth, Canberra and Darwin.

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In Perth, rents have risen 11.5% for houses and 12.3% for apartments, while in Darwin house rents have increased 27% in 12 months. In Canberra rents have risen around 6% for both houses and units.

The repercussions are spreading well beyond the immediate participants, tenants and landlords. Businesses in regional areas are struggling to find the workers they need because people interested in taking the jobs on offer can’t find anywhere to rent in those areas.

So what are our elected representatives doing about that? Essentially, nothing. They give the impression that aren’t even aware of the problem. This situation is just not part of the national discussion.

Partly mainstream media is to blame. Our major newspapers, especially the Fairfax ones, have been focusing their coverage on the few places in the nation that have high vacancies, specifically inner-city Melbourne and inner-city Sydney and creating the impression that we have an over-supply of dwellings – which is laughable.

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Federal Labor, if they had their way, would make matters worse by scrapping negative gearing, which would be a huge disincentive to investors.

What we need is the opposite – measures to encourage people to buy investment properties and make them available for rental. Rental vacancies are an outcome of the activity of investor buyers – and their absence in recent years is a chief reason we have this crisis.

HomeBuilder is helping the situation by encouraging the creation of new dwellings, but more needs to be done.

If politicians want to help tenants, they need to encourage landlords – instead of treating property investors (most of them ordinary mum-and-dad households) as a criminal class.

Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au

ryder@hotspotting.com.au

twitter.com/hotspotting
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According to the monthly report from SQM Research, vacancy rates in our already-tight rental markets fell in six of the capital cities and were unchanged in the other two in January.



Mum and dad investors hit by favourable COVID-affected tenant rules: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER

For the past 3-4 years, many pundits have forecast that “this year” is the year for Brisbane and the city has not delivered. It has chugged along steadily but there’s been little in the way of major uplift.

But now the Brisbane boom is upon us. Hotspotting research for the upcoming Autumn 2021 edition of The Price Predictor Index shows just how strong markets are across the Greater Brisbane Area.

The number of growth markets in the Greater Brisbane Area has quadrupled since mid-2020, creating the strongest market in the six years of our quarterly surveys. The uplift in sales activity in the past six months has been extraordinary.

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Our new survey has identified 124 suburbs with rising sales activity, compared to 56 in the previous survey and just 28 in the mid-2020 survey. This means the number of growth suburbs doubled in six months and then doubled again within three months.

The previous best result in the six years of our quarterly surveys was 80 growth suburbs six years ago at the start of 2015.

At the same time, the number of plateau markets is the lowest ever, while the number of declining or danger markets has dropped from 37 eighteen months ago to just five now (we continue to classify some of the inner-city apartment markets as danger markets, with vacancies still high there).

The northern precincts continue to be market leaders in Brisbane. The Brisbane-north precinct and the Moreton Bay Region jointly have 51 growth suburbs, including 31 in the Moreton Bay region, which is a record to any LGA across Australia in the six years of these surveys.

This means that three-quarters of the ranked suburbs in the Moreton Bay Region have rising sales activity, a circumstance that makes strong price highly likely in 2021.

The Brisbane-north precinct, which has 20 growth suburbs, continues to impress as one of the strongest of the city’s sectors.

But the growth momentum is occurring throughout the Brisbane metropolitan area, with Ipswich City in the far south-west an exception.

Logan City in the far south has 17 growth suburbs, providing further evidence of the gathering recovery of markets in this precinct.

Brisbane-south (13), Brisbane-inner (11), Brisbane-easts (12), Brisbane-west (7) and Redland City (8) all have substantial numbers of suburbs with rising trajectories. But Ipswich City, with only five growth suburbs, has yet to feel the positive momentum being felt elsewhere in the Greater Brisbane Area.

It doesn’t surprise, therefore, that Brisbane markets have been performing well on price growth, with three-quarters of suburbs across the metropolitan area recording uplift in their median house prices in 2020.

In the most recent quarter, 76% of suburbs had some level of price growth.

With inner-city apartment markets still struggling with high vacancy rates, growth has been less prolific among the unit markets: 56% of the suburbs with unit markets have had growth in their median unit prices in the past year.

House price growth has been spread across the Brisbane metropolitan area, but the upper end of the market has been leading.

St Lucia in the popular western suburbs has lifted its median house price 36% to $1,525,000, while Yeronga in the inner southern suburbs has grown 38% to $1,045,000. The sough-after inner city suburb of New Farm has increased 20% to $1,750,000, while Highgate Hill is also up 20% to $1,200,000. And the most expensive of the eastern bayside suburbs, Manly, has increased 20% to $945,000.

The housing market in inner Brisbane, in contrast to the apartment market, is generally travelling well. In addition to New Farm and Highgate Hill, West End is up 15%, Woolloongabba 10%, Bardon 8% and Coorparoo 7%.

The western suburbs are doing well, led by St Lucia (36%), Fig Tree Pocket (up 18%), Sherwood (13%) and Toowong (12%). All have median prices above $1 million.

The northern suburbs also are out-performing. Inner northern suburbs with median prices above $1 million are growing, including Grange (14%), Ashgrove (13%), Ascot (8%) and Clayfield (9%).

Further north in the middle-ring suburbs, growth suburbs include Nundah (15%), Banyo (12%), Chermside (14%) and Sandgate (11%), while others like Chermside West, Kedron and McDowall have grown 8-9%. These are places with median house prices in the $600,000 to $800,000 range.

The equivalent suburbs in the south are also displaying solid growth, headed by Holland Park (12%), Tarragindi (10%) and Upper Mount Gravatt (11%). Several others are up 8-9%.

Several outer-ring precincts are also doing well. In the Moreton Bay region in the far north, growth suburbs include Eatons Hill (13%), Caboolture South (8%), Beachmere (9%) and Bellara (7%) – mostly locations with median house prices under $500,000. Given the number of suburbs with rising sales activity, we expect price growth to accelerate in this area.

In Logan City in the far south, Underwood is up 12% to $615,000, while suburbs with medians in the $400,000s and $500,000s are showing solid uplift in the 7-8% range, including Daisy Hill, Loganholme, Shailer Park and Waterford.

Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au

ryder@hotspotting.com.au

twitter.com/hotspotting
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For the past 3-4 years, many pundits have forecast that “this year” is the year for Brisbane and the city has not delivered



A Brisbane real estate boom, at last: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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It’s a great time to be a landlord in Australia. With rare exceptions, vacancies are ultra low, rents are rising and there’s massive momentum behind prices.

A nationwide property boom is under way (with the big city inner-ring unit markets the exception) and the curious thing is that investors haven’t been joining the party. 

The growth we saw in most markets in 2020 was driven by owner-occupiers, with first-home buyers leading the charge and other home buyers, especially lifestyle-seekers, prominent as well.

Investors were sitting on the fence, worried firstly about the September Cliff which failed to materialise and now apparently concerned about a potential March Cliff.

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They’ve been waiting to see what would happen, before making decisions. And here’s what has happened while they’ve been fence-sitting – the new data from Domain shows that all capital cities had house price growth ranging from solid to strong in 2020, as did most of regional Australia. There was particularly notable uplift in the December Quarter.

This confirms earlier data from CoreLogic and both confirm the anecdotal evidence from the coal-face of markets which shows properties receiving multiple offers and selling for more than the asking prices, often before being formally listed.

Other research shows that rents have been rising in many parts of Australia, on the back of vacancy rates so low that it constitutes a national rental crisis.

So the hesitant investors have missed the first phase of the national property boom.

If they’d bought a year ago in many parts of Australia, their properties would now be worth 10%, 15% or 20% more than they paid.

For those who bought in sexy lifestyle locations like Byron Bay and the upmarket areas of the Sunshine Coast, a $1 million investment a year ago would now be worth around $1.3 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=84861]

If you’d bought a $400,000 property in Bendigo 12 months ago, it would likely now be worth around $460,000 (based on the median price data).

So it’s time for investors to stop procrastinating and get busy. And the latest ABS data on loans indicates that, at last, investors are starting to get involved.

This, in fact, is typical investor behaviour. Investors don’t lead property cycles, they react to them. They stampede into the market when they hear there’s a boom happening.

So I expect a big surge of activity from investors in 2021. There are too many good reasons to become buyers of well-located real estate and make it available to a hungry rental market.

The uplift in investor buyers will add further energy to the momentum already happening in markets across the nation.

It will make a national property boom that much more certain.

Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au

ryder@hotspotting.com.au

twitter.com/hotspotting
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The hesitant investors have missed the first phase of the national property boom.



It’s time for real estate investors to stop procrastinating and get busy: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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<h2>EXPERT INSIGHT</h2>

The question we are asked the most is whether the trend to the regions will last. Many appear to think it might be a “flash in the pan” phenomenon.

The answer is: yes, this trend has legs. It has already been going on for too long to be considered a short-term wonder. Sydney has been losing population to internal migration (people moving to other parts of Australia) for 10 years.

Melbourne has been a net loser of population through internal migration for the past three years. Media has misled people by characterizing the Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle as a reaction to the pandemic lockdown periods. It is not. This trend has been under way, strongly, for years - and it’s about technology and the ability to work remotely. It’s not about COVID-19, although the pandemic year has certainly enhanced the trend.

Many people want a different lifestyle, one that’s more affordable and relaxed, away from the big expensive congested cities. Many of them lived in the inner-city areas of our big capitals only because they felt they needed to for their careers. Technology and the growing acceptance of work-from-home scenarios has released those shackles.

I made that choice a quarter of a century ago. I realised I didn’t need to be in the big city to operate my business so I moved to a hill change town. And will likely never leave.

I place great value on living in a place where there are no traffic lights, where you can get a park in the main street, where shop keepers greet you by name, where there’s a real sense of community and where crime is seldom an issue. The physical environment is spectacular and we’re an hour from the Brisbane CBD is ever we need it – which rarely happens. When I moved here from inner Brisbane, I bought a home of higher standard than the one I was leaving and it cost less. That, in simple terms, is why more and more people are making the move.

It’s not about the pandemic, it’s about lifestyle, affordability and technology. And it’s not going away any time soon. So, across Australia, property markets are booming in sea change and hill change towns, as well as the smaller capital cities.

It’s a key reason why we’re heading into a nationwide real estate boom this year and beyond. It’s not the only reason, but it’s one of the prime catalysts. And, no, the end to Federal Government stimulus measures won’t stop it.

Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au

ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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The Sydney and Melbourne exodus isn't a flash in the pan

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EXPERT INSIGHT

The data on rents published by Domain illustrates that this is a great time to be a landlord – in most locations across Australia. You might have a different view if you own an investment property in the inner-city areas of our biggest cities, but elsewhere we have a landlord’s market like never before.

Vacancy rates below 1% have become the norm in Australia. That’s a remarkable situation and it deserves repeating: vacancies under 1% are the norm.

Five of our capital cities – Perth, Adelaide, Canberra, Hobart and Darwin – have vacancy rates under 1%. Brisbane is only marginally higher. And many of our regional centres have vacancies closer to zero than to 1%.

You would be hard-pressed to find a significant regional city or town with a vacancy rate above 2%. I’ve been researching and writing about Australian real estate for almost 40 years and I’ve never seen a rental market situation like this.

Research entities confirm that many locations have the tightest rental markets ever recorded. Every day I’m having conversations with real estate professionals across the nation. And when the topic is the rental market, the story is always the same: when a dwelling becomes available for rental there are queues of people - 30, 40 or 50 applicants – competing for the property.

It’s common for prospective tenants to make offers well above the asking rent and/or to offer to pay six or 12 months in advance to beat the competition. That is why the Domain figures show rents rising sharply in locations across Australia, especially outside the big cities – despite pandemic-related restrictions from state governments.

Multiple regional centres in NSW, Queensland and Victoria have had rents growing10% or more, sometimes 15-20%, in the past year. Among the capital cities, there have been double- digit rises in Perth and Darwin – and significant increases also in Adelaide, Canberra and Brisbane. In Sydney, houses are up 5% although apartments have dropped.

There are many reasons why there is a dire shortage of rentals in most locations:

<ul>
<li> We haven’t been building sufficient new dwellings for the past three years or so.</li>
	<li> Vacancies are primarily an outcome of investor activity and investors have been sitting on the sidelines lately – owner-occupiers have been driving markets.</li>
	<li> The Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle, with large numbers of Australians leaving the big cities and moving to the fringes and to the regions, has further diminished the supply of rental properties.</li>
</ul>
This is a national crisis but it receives very little attention from media and even less from politicians. The various federal and state governments have been so busy dealing with the pandemic, they haven’t noticed the chronic shortage of properties and the dramatic impact of that on rentals.

One shudders to think what the situation would be if Labor had won the last Federal Election and scrapped negative gearing. Right now, we need the opposite kind of action – we need governments to provide direct incentives to Australians to become property investors and add to the rental pool. In the meantime, rents will keep going up. Propertyology’s head of research Simon Pressley is forecasting record increases and I think he’s right.

Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au 

ryder@hotspotting.com.au
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It's a great time to be an Australian landlord: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/broadbeach-qld-4218">Broadbeach</a> offers plenty of reasons to live vertically, but moving from a substantial family home into an apartment can expose the compromises of high-density living. Privacy, room for guests and usable living space tend to matter more when an apartment is intended as a permanent home rather than an occasional coastal base.

A typical residential floor at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-eveleigh-broadbeach-7-9-surf-parade-broadbeach-qld-4218">The Eveleigh</a>, on Surf Parade,&nbsp;contains just four apartments. The 94-residence development by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/hirsch-faigen">Hirsch &amp; Faigen</a> is predominantly made up of expansive three-bedroom homes, with a limited collection of half-floor penthouses above.

Across the apartment floors, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a> has used the relatively limited number of residences to give each home greater access to natural light and outlook. Living spaces extend towards full-height glazing, while a series of bay windows frame selected views across the Pacific Ocean, city and hinterland rather than treating the building edge as a continuous wall of glass.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360965]

“The apartment floors deliver a collection of homes that embrace controlled outlook via a series of bay windows deliberately framing moments of view,” Rothelowman Director Kim Lowman said.

From outside, those projecting forms contribute to the tower’s faceted profile. Strong horizontal and vertical elements establish its proportions, while the changing position of the sun alters the light, shadow and reflection across the façade throughout the day.

The same attention moves inside the apartments, where the material palette combines warm timber, natural stone, metallic detailing and softer curved forms. Kitchens sit within the main living zone, with stone island benches, integrated joinery and European appliances, before the living areas extend towards the glazing and the outlook.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360981]

Three genuine bedrooms provide room to accommodate family and guests, while two secure car spaces and storage address some of the practical considerations that can become more noticeable when moving from a larger home. Feedback from the display suite has centred on the warmth and restraint of the interiors, with buyers commenting that the residences feel like homes rather than conventional coastal apartments.

A limited collection of half-floor penthouses occupies the upper levels, increasing the scale of the living spaces and adding private balconies and elevated finishes. From this position, the outlook extends between the ocean and hinterland.

Outside the private residences, The Eveleigh separates its shared spaces between the podium and rooftop. The podium is centred on wellness, with subtropical landscaping surrounding a swimming pool and pool terrace, yoga garden, private gymnasium, sauna and hot and cold plunge facilities. Landscaped retreats and pavilions provide additional places to sit away from the main recreation areas.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360966]

Higher in the building, a rooftop pavilion and private dining suite sit alongside resident lounge, barbecue and outdoor dining areas, opening towards panoramic views across the ocean, city and hinterland.

“Buyers are no longer just looking for an apartment, but a lifestyle where they can relax, reset, and enjoy a balanced way of living,” Hirsch &amp; Faigen Director of Sales Matt George said.

Interest to date has come from established owner-occupiers and interstate lifestyle purchasers, including buyers planning a future move to the Gold Coast. Many are coming from larger homes and want to reduce ongoing maintenance without giving up space for family and guests, privacy, two car spaces or the ability to entertain at home.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360969]

Much of that daily life can also take place beyond the building without requiring a drive. Kurrawa Beach and Pratten Park are an easy walk from Surf Parade, while Pacific Fair, Oracle Boulevard, The Oasis, restaurants, cafés, entertainment and public transport are also within walking distance.

The Eveleigh is Hirsch &amp; Faigen's fourth Gold Coast development since entering the market in 2021, following The Hemingway at Palm Beach, The Emerson at Kirra and Yves at Mermaid Beach. Each of the preceding projects sold out before completion.

“Broadbeach had been on our radar throughout our time operating on the Gold Coast,” the developer said. “Following our projects in Palm Beach, Kirra and Mermaid Beach, Broadbeach represented the natural next step for the business.”

The Surf Parade site brought together proximity to the beach, protected coastal outlooks and walkability to dining, shopping and recreation. Hirsch &amp; Faigen also identified the street as an emerging premium residential address, with enough separation from Broadbeach's busier destinations to retain a quieter environment at home.

The Eveleigh is now under construction by Maxcon, with completion forecast for mid-2028. Three-bedroom residences are currently available from $2.87 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=149670]

Joel Robinson

The Eveleigh brings house-like apartments to Broadbeach

A long-stalled Campbelltown development site is back in play, with new plans for 139 apartments set to supersede a mixed-use scheme approved almost a decade ago but never built.

The new proposal for 28 Cordeaux Street would deliver 116 market and 23 affordable apartments in a part 14-storey building, bringing a substantial new project into a Campbelltown market where new apartment supply remains limited.

Plans have been filed over the 3,092 sqm corner site at Moore-Oxley Street, around 600 metres from Campbelltown Railway Station and the city-centre retail core.

The site already carries a mixed-use residential approval dating to 2016. Doroch Architects has now been engaged on a larger replacement scheme, which is progressing as a State Significant Development Application following a Housing Delivery Authority determination in August 2025.

The apartment mix comprises 39 one-bedroom, 72 two-bedroom and 28 three-bedroom residences. Two-bedroom apartments make up just over half of the project, while three-bedroom homes account for 20 per cent.

<img alt="First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="136dd5b9-3791-4da6-9e31-76f533f5b4de" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Campbelltown%20da2.png?VersionId=LgOSy9nwf5u.MGswBBwaGGxuX8QpHSl_" />

Of the 139 apartments, 23 will be delivered as affordable housing under the in-fill affordable housing provisions of the Housing SEPP. The affordable component represents 15 per cent of the residential gross floor area and will be managed by a registered Community Housing Provider.

Doroch has sought to break the scale of the building into two distinct elements, with a masonry podium of around four storeys establishing the street edge before the residential tower steps back above.

The corner position has shaped that approach. Cordeaux Street faces toward the commercial and civic centre, while Moore-Oxley Street leads into the lower-scale residential neighbourhood to the south, and the design verification report describes the site as "bridging the commercial core to the north and established residential areas to the south."

The podium will be expressed predominantly in face brick, while the upper levels shift to brushed and grooved concrete cladding with darker metal detailing. Recessed sections, deep balcony edges and landscaping break down the upper form, with an approximately 11.8-metre setback to the northern boundary addressing the adjoining St Peters Anglican School.

<img alt="First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c8b3d2d3-c561-4bfc-a5d9-a68c0c10dac1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Campbelltown%20da1.png?VersionId=AeAEyJU02Gk2k5noUj2StziCvdQ7fW4B" />

Campbelltown has been starved of new residential developments in the last decade.

The only other notable development set to come to market this year is ALAND's Queen Square, a mixed-use precinct on over two hectares that will comprise apartments above a vibrant ground-level retail and hospitality dining precinct.

First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site

First Look: Sherlock Construction pitches apartments for low-rise Deception Bay

Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.

The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.

The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.

The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.

The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.

MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.

Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.

The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.

<img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" />

MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.

"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.

"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."

The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.

Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.

Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.

"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.

"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."

MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.

"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.

"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."

Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.

"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."

The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.

MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

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Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.

But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.

Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]

The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.

It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]

Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.

Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.

Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]

Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.

"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.

A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.

It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.

At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.

Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]

Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.

"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.

The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.

More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]

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Terry Ryder

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