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If there were a term that I would love to see introduced into the Australian property vernacular it would be just the one word – “shifts”.
For some time now I have found it most frustrating the way commentators and (to a much lesser extent) politicians raise topics, such as housing affordability is a fine example, Headlines such as “Australia’s housing affordability improved in the first three months of 2016” mean very little and serve little purpose. The problem with the housing affordability debate is that it focuses on Sydney and Melbourne which are the two most sort after locations whilst there is no mention of the affordable areas.
Rather we should for example look at what’s actually driving our specific market demographics on a suburb by suburb basis. Only then can we actually get a proper idea of what is actually happening where, believe me, we are now seeing some healthy shifts and some alarming shifts.
For example, in many Sydney suburbs we are now seeing record low stock levels particularly with houses – so what caused these shifts? In the vast majority of cases it always comes back to government policies whether federal, state or local. The reason why we are seeing less houses on the markets is because property values have grown to such a level that the barrier is now stamp duty. For a house purchased at $3,000,000 it is $150,490 and a house purchased at $4,000,000 it is $220,490 so home owners are now going to Plan B – refinancing and renovating.
 
When I speak to property valuers in our area I’m told that their workloads are now split 50/50 between purchases and re-financing which is a shift that started 3 years ago. Three years ago in Mosman there would be around 125 houses on the market each week where today there is around 50, so homeowners are refinancing to renovate with a view to a longer hold.
In November 2013, the value of housing finance was 26 percent higher than the previous year. This shift has continued ever since which clearly identifies where homeowners are shifting their monies taking household debts to historic highs with historic low interest rates.
Mosman has 5,890 houses approximately with 55 on the market today. Cremorne has 7,135 houses approximately with 7 on the market today. Neutral Bay has 1,109 houses approximately with 8 on the market today. Cammeray has 1,275 houses approximately with 9 on the market today. Northbridge has 1,914 houses approximately with 10 on the market today and Seaforth has 2,317 houses approximately with 18 on the market today. This has been the pattern for the last three years and don’t expect this to change any time soon.
Now when we look at the shifts in the new apartment markets this is where it gets scary because the blame here is shared equally between the state and federal governments. When the state government starts introducing a strategy for massive high–density developments and the federal government changes the ratio restrictions from 50 per cent to 100 per cent for overseas buyers on off–the–plan purchases, as I said a few years ago – train wreck.
Recently we read that the major banks ceased foreign lending so I immediately thought something is happening here as banks never turn away new revenue streams. Now we read that Westpac and the ANZ have found approximately $1 billion in Chinese mortgage application fraud. No doubt a precursor to the Australian Taxation Office clampdown on non – resident purchases so the anxious buyers then shifted to federal government endorsed off–the–plan purchases. It’s anyone’s guess where this will end up, although you would be right in saying this is only going to get worse. More particularly this has the potential so see a major revaluation of existing apartment purchases significantly down. Little wonder the major lenders announced recently that they were not approving any more loans in many Sydney suburbs.
Now shift your attention to the upcoming federal election where the Liberal party is not going to touch negative gearing and the Labor party are going to only make negative gearing available to new properties. Can you see another potential shift in the markets if negative gearing only applies to the new developments where given what’s currently happening nobody will be buying anything until these markets sort themselves out?
Then I read an article recently where Harry Triguboff announced that recently sales to Chinese buyers had halved and that Chinese buyers over the past few years had accounted for 80 percent of new Sydney apartment sales. Yes – 80 percent! Why is this not an election issue?
Now to put this into further perspective household consumption is actually what’s presently driving the Australian economy. In the December quarter 2015 national accounts household consumption delivered 0.4 percent of the total 0.6 percent growth.
Now there are a few shifts that need much closer examination. First signs for the NSW government will be a dramatic collapse in stamp duty revenues which is happening big time. The once ever dependable existing house market is renovating or has renovated so no financial joy there either. Then there will be a dependence on the off–the–plan purchases actually completing, although that’s looking shaky too. With 93 percent of investors preferring to buy existing properties and now the ALP wants them to but new properties – well that won’t work. We now know that nearly all the off–the–plan sales have gone to Asian investors.
The ALP need to be corrected on this as this policy change to negative gearing is Mining Tax Mark II.
<h4>MOSMAN – 2088</h4>
Number of houses on the market this time last year – 57
Number of houses on the market last week – 51
Number of houses on the market this week – 55
Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 49
Number of apartments on the market last week – 53
Number of apartments on the market this week – 50
<h4>CREMORNE – 2090</h4>
Number of houses on the market this time last year – 4
Number of houses on the market last week – 8
Number of houses on the market this week – 7
Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 14
Number of apartments on the market last week – 24
Number of apartments on the market this week – 23
<h4>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h4>
Number of houses on the market this time last year – 3
Number of houses on the market last week – 11
Number of houses on the market this week – 8
Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 27
Number of apartments on the market last week – 25
Number of apartments on the market this week – 21
 
ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985.  He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000.
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Beware of the Sydney property shifts

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When you start to see politicians debating tax changes you should be afraid – very afraid. We know with the negative gearing debate that neither party has completed any costings preferring to work from the economic theory of guesstimates.
This is a very dangerous path as Australia does not have a Housing Minister and any changes are fraught with danger.
Just this week, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that for the first time rental, hiring and real estate service companies made $14 billion before tax in the second half of 2015 while mining companies made $9.8 billion. This is not the time to start meddling with property taxes as an excuse for economic reform policy.
I have no doubt that any changes to negative gearing will distort the market, and should there be an “investor run” prices will inevitably fall.
Australia is currently recording wage growth at a record low of 2.2 per cent a year. This is the lowest annual growth since the ABS started recording annual growth back in 1998. On top of that statistic in the September quarter, the ratio of household debt to income hit a new high of 184.6 per cent which translates to households’ debt now being at 1.85 times their total income.
This record growth in debt is a by-product from record low interest rates. But before we hit the panic button we need to investigate further and try and identify what is causing this.
On many occasions I have said “if there was a gold medal for real estate portfolios Australia would win hands down.” I see no use comparing Australia’s debt ratios with other countries when the Australian model has no tax payable on the principal place of residence and the overseas models do have tax payable on the principal place of residence. Australians work their principal place of residence as their main superannuation platform, which works very well when you have the cash rate at record lows.
If you were a betting person you would definitely be betting that the next cash rate movement will be down. Of course these high debt ratios will be challenged when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) starts increasing the cash rate, but nobody really knows when that will be or in what decade even.
Prior to the Global Financial Crisis the average cash rate over a 25 year term came in at around 7.25 per cent, where based on what we are seeing today mortgage holders are going hard at 2.00 per cent.
Another statistic that is flying well off the radar are reverse mortgages which very few people discuss within the Australian property debate. In its annual Reverse Mortgage Report, Delloitte estimates more than $500 billion of home equity is held by Australians aged over 65, with the total reverse mortgage loan book worth $3.66bn as at the end of 2014.
This figure is naturally added to the Australian household debt figure so this would go part of the way to explaining why we are starting to see record debt levels. Back at the end of 2014 there were almost 40,000 reverse mortgages on issue in Australia with the average size being $92,000, up from $86,000 in 2013. It would then be reasonable to suggest that the number of reverse mortgages would have increased in 2015 as too the average mortgages – this is clearly a growth market.
To put this into further perspective the reverse mortgage market loan book was $3.66bn in 2014 and the Commonwealth Bank home loan portfolio currently sits around $393 billion. With many retirees opting for reverse mortgages this is another reason why we are seeing fewer properties on the market. Although this would change significantly once the cash rate starts increasing or a federal Government starts tampering with negative gearing in an adverse way.
What it does tell us is that Australia needs property investors as they play an integral part in Australian property machinations. If you want to have a rational debate about housing affordability in Australia firstly examine the delays by respective governments who forever and a day burden and choke the supply side of the property industry. It’s obvious to most that they fail to understand the Supply V demand equation.
Furthermore the Labor negative gearing proposal states that this will only apply to new properties. Well somebody should advise them that in December 2008 they lifted the number of properties that can be sold from new developments by foreign buyers from 50 per cent to 100 per cent. Property developers are selling all their new developments directly overseas as that way they can achieve higher prices so the local markets are blocked from buying these developments.
Nor is there any requirement nor legislation stipulating that foreign buyers must rent the property out to the local market – we do know that currently in Australia there are thousands of properties that have been land banked. Politicians are hopeless when it comes to the Australian property market.
The last thing the Australian economy needs is a domino effect with property prices because they are not pretty and should be avoided at all costs. If you want to bring property prices down do it organically by increasing supply which just so happens to be the greatest failure of local, state and federal Governments in the modern economy.
<h4>MOSMAN – 2088</h4>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 83
• Number of houses on the market last week – 64
• Number of houses on the market this week – 63
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 53
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 52 • Number of apartments on the market this week – 53
<h4>CREMORNE – 2090</h4>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 10
• Number of houses on the market last week – 18
• Number of houses on the market this week – 11
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 23
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 23
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 25
<h4>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h4>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 4
• Number of houses on the market last week – 8
•Number of houses on the market this week – 10
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 36
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 26
*Number of apartments on the market this week – 25
 ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985.  He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. 
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It’s time for the Australian property debate: Robert Simeon

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Once again we see a fast backtrack by many commentators who predicted a strong easing of real estate prices for the March quarter of 2016.
Then again there are those (like myself) who predicted an about-turn in property prices which is precisely what has happened. For the last four years the December quarter has been the worst performing quarter which can be simply put down to human fatigue.
For those who read the property markets wrong they then seamlessly move to Plan B – the debt debate and yes, Australia’s housing market does have a $1.45 trillion debt blister.
This debate is then marinated with housing affordability, which I must admit has everyone confused given the apparent lack of care or interest. Sydney and Melbourne, and Brisbane to a lesser extent, are flooding the markets with new developments, although in the majority of instances these properties are sold direct to non – resident Australians, so how does that work?
Take Sydney for instance – in the 1980’s the average house price ratio to median yearly household income was 3.0. In 2005 this ratio increased in Sydney to 8.5 and in 2015 it climbed to a staggering 12.2. I can’t see this breaking the back of house prices but I do see plenty of trouble ahead for the Sydney apartment market which has approximately another 22,000 new apartments in the investment pipeline over the next 24 months.
This is the market that requires closer examination and should not be confused with the family house market as the two are distinctly opposite.
We also need to look under the bonnet of the Australian economy to see what is driving it more particularly GDP. Sydney is way ahead of the pack with a 23.3 percent share overall Sydney has outperformed the rest of Australia for the last three years. Next in GDP is Melbourne with 17.7 percent, then Brisbane at 9.6 percent, Perth at 9.5 percent and then Adelaide at 4.6 percent.
If you look at the Green Square development (currently under construction) located between Alexandria and Moore Park in South Sydney – this development will deliver 27,276 apartments so they would be hoping that 60 percent are going to owner occupiers, as if! It is more like 80 per cent to property investors this will send rents in that area spiraling down as there will be a market flood when they all hit the market seeking tenants.
Investor beware! Australia is currently locked in to its biggest apartment development boom ever seen and the big problem is that these developments are congested into the same post codes and are not spread, so a cold can quickly turn to pneumonia.
What scares me the most is that we can trace this boom starting back in December 2008 when the ratio of foreign buyers was moved from 50 percent of new developments to 100 per cent. This ignited property developers and respective state and territory governments to move over night without any analysis to high density.
Again without analysis these developments have been contained into developing areas – so what if the foreign buyers decide not to proceed as the vast majority of these developments are yet to be completed?
It will be property investor mayhem because it’s one big Ponzi scheme totally reliant on the good faith of foreign investors completing on their transactions. Melbourne has another 123,622 apartments in the pipeline and Sydney has 88,013 and there are plenty more on the way awaiting approval. In the case of New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland the state governments are only focused on millions and millions of dollars in stamp duty and land tax.
Sorry to tell you but nobody has a contingency plan should these new developments start to collapse, because if they do the prices will drop 30 per cent minimum overnight.
So whilst housing affordability is directly a responsibility of government I, like many, are not feeling comfortable at how they plan to make it more affordable. With Sydney and Melbourne building the lion’s share of apartments we should also note they are contributing 41 per cent of the Australia’s GDP.
This is precisely the conversation our elected politicians need to be having and this should have started years ago. We may be building an apartment revolution but just like the share market we could be looking at the biggest ‘shorting’ in the property market we have ever seen before too.
Very, very happy to be wrong on this.
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 72
• Number of houses on the market last week – 54
• Number of houses on the market this week – 48
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 61
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 42
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 45
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 6
• Number of houses on the market last week – 4
• Number of houses on the market this week – 6
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 17
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 28
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 28
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 15
• Number of houses on the market last week – 7
•Number of houses on the market this week – 6
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 36
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 26
*Number of apartments on the market this week – 25
 
ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985.  He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. 
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Are we about to see our property investors short the market? Robert Simeon

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It never ceases to amaze me just how little some “property experts” actually know about real estate machinations to the point they constantly make fools of themselves with dumb commentaries.
For example, one commentator earlier this week declared on Twitter “Auction clearance rates crumbling Melbourne 66.3% 2yr low Sydney another crash just 57.5% 3yr low” – well, that may be true as west of Sydney is performing badly. I then reminded him that I thought he is the worst property commentator in Australia. Last week, Sydney’s lower north shore recorded a bullish 80.4 % clearance rate up from 76.6 % the previous week – of course this was not mentioned.
It is also worth mentioning just like clockwork as soon as we hit the Melbourne Cup each year the market starts easing off which is exactly what we are presently witnessing – buyers are tired. Having said that, we will see property sales recorded right up to Christmas and what we are presently witnessing is no different to last year, the year before that and so on.
The common denominator is that we are seeing fewer properties on the market. In 2013 Mosman had 100 or more houses on the market in a given week on 33 occasions, in 2014 Mosman could only break the 100 mark on just 11 occasions. In 2015 it never made it to 100 with the highest being on March 12 with 84 and the lowest on July 2 with 42.
There are points that we need to make about many Sydney markets. Firstly, with Chinese buyers we have only just seen the “tip of the iceberg” where we expect in 2016 and beyond that they will be the main driving force behind Sydney property prices. We can also expect that the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) and Australian Taxation Office (ATO) will be pushed to the limit with overseas buying applications.
Six weeks ago I suggested that we were hearing that many investors both local and overseas were getting very nervous and now we hear that one in three off – the – plan buyers are in trouble. This is a major problem for Sydney’s newly created “investor market” as if these properties were to flood the markets prices would capitulate.
It will be most interesting going into 2016 to watch what strategy developers, and more particularly the banks funding these developments, decide to adopt. Will this see the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) forced into relaxing the newly introduced LVR’s? The off – the – plan feeding frenzy saw entire developments sold in a minimum of hours. Well I predict it will take months and months to see these properties find new owners. Will the developers offload apartments to parties that are already owners at discounted prices? That would be a sensible option to avoiding adverse publicity.
How many properties will the ATO force back onto the market in the form of Divestment Orders for parties that acquired real estate illegally? If this is as big as some believe (myself included) the Sydney property markets could not sustain these two forces combined – Divestment Orders and Off – The – Plan purchases.
We do need to be clear here in that the newly created “investors’ market” should not be confused with the homeowner markets – although some areas that contain these newly created high density developments will naturally affect the homeowner markets.
The absolute no-brainer here is when the Rudd government moved the ratio for overseas buyers buying off – the – plan from 50 % to 100 % in December 2008. This needs to be reduced back to 50 % as a matter of urgency.
Strange isn’t it how some want to bellow about clearance rates and others want to look at our property market machinations in greater detail. I know what I find the more interesting to discuss.
Historically when property markets start correcting then fewer properties go to public auction. Makes one ponder what some commentators would then be left to bellow about?
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 114
• Number of houses on the market last week – 74
• Number of houses on the market this week – 65
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 76
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 71
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 60
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 14
• Number of houses on the market last week – 13
• Number of houses on the market this week – 15
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 31
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 16
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 18
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 10
• Number of houses on the market last week – 8
•Number of houses on the market this week – 8
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 42
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 36
*Number of apartments on the market this week – 33
 
 ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985.  He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. 
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Why off the plan can be a deadly market: Robert Simeon

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GUEST OBSERVER
It had to happen sooner or later when we start to see real estate sales reach levels never witnessed before, which is exactly what is happening now on Sydney’s lower north shore where sale prices are running amok.
The saying that real estate is not an exacting science is so true when one looks closely at real estate prices where the heat is now a blow torch and property valuers are having a lot of difficulty justifying selling prices to the lenders. For example; on a recent sale we made the valuer appointed by the lender submitted his valuation 10 per cent below the purchase price.
These are markets we have never seen where in the past Sydney would boom as one. This time what we have seen are scattered booms, with the other areas reporting solid results with nothing out of the ordinary.
One million dollar markets have jumped to two million dollar markets; two million dollar markets are now three and three million dollar markets are now four million dollars and so on. I must admit the progression from slow and steady to fast and furious has caught many by surprise although for purchasers we are now in the final selling stages for 2016.
To the untrained eye, it seemed like just another property market run. To the trained however, it resembles a “Houston, we have a problem.” For example, clearance rates on the lower north shore are now well into the 90 per cent zone which is the highest recorded in years.
It will be interesting to watch how the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) responds following their last commentary on Melbourne Cup Day. “In the established housing market, conditions had eased relative to a year earlier, although there had been some signs that conditions had strengthened a little more recently. Housing price growth in Sydney and Melbourne had increased in recent months and auction clearance rates in these two cities had risen.
In contrast, turnover and housing credit growth had been noticeably lower than a year earlier and the value of housing loan approvals had been little changed in recent months. Conditions in the rental market had continued to soften, particularly in Perth, where population growth had been easing and the rental vacancy rate had risen.’’
When you look at the respective market data we are witnessing some amazing data shifts. In Mosman, CoreLogic report that the average hold period is now out to 10.5 years where 3 years ago this sat at 7.5 years, so next year we can expect to see this blow out further to 12.5 years. The percentage of stock is another fascinating statistic where over the past year the percentage of stock offered is down to an all-time low for houses at 5.5 percent where ten years ago it sat at 10.00 per cent.
For apartments in Mosman the average hold is getting longer and now sits at 9.8 years and the percentage of stock on the market sits at a record low of 3.4 percent. These are the property accelerants that are driving prices up as stock levels are at record lows across Sydney. Whilst it is being reported that Sydney prices have climbed another 12.1 percent over the last year some areas would be double that plus some more.
Last week, Sydney boasted a clearance rate of 84.2 percent, although CoreLogic reported the number of properties currently listed for sale in Sydney was 10.1 percent down from the same period last year.
Now this is where it gets confusing when you look at household debt which is peaking at record highs and some suggesting that this is to be expected with a record low cash rate. How could this be expected when we have never had a record low cash rate before?
Lending remains strong and currently sits well above inflation and wage growth. Although it must be said that our banks are now in a much stronger position, and they will need to be. During 2016, liquid assets have made up around 20 per cent of the major Australian banks total assets which is up from an average of 15 per cent prior to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Although it should be added that since the GFC property values have climbed to new record highs.
So, I am in the school of thought that the major banks will start hiking rates upwards in 2017 to start slowing down the property markets although it should be noted that those who have mortgages have been stress tested at 7.00 percent.
Last year, we observed a fall in interest – only loans which are now on the rise again and that is a very dangerous sign. A recent survey by Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) revealed that four – in – ten interest – only borrowers had absolutely no idea when, or how, they will start to repay the principal and that 90 per cent are hoping to roll indefinitely their interest – only term.
Now this will have just the one ending as the banks will start rolling the clients as they should not have been approved in the first place. The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) must take a long and hard look at interest – only loans as they are dangerous with a capital D!
In 2014 on this day there were 115 houses in Mosman on the market, this day last year 74 and today 54. For Mosman apartments they have reduced from 73 in 2014, 61 in 2015 and 42 today.
MOSMAN – 2088
Number of houses on the market this time last year – 74
Number of houses on the market last week – 57
Number of houses on the market this week – 54
Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 71
Number of apartments on the market last week – 49
Number of apartments on the market this week – 42
CREMORNE – 2090
Number of houses on the market this time last year – 15
Number of houses on the market last week – 6
Number of houses on the market this week – 5
Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 18
Number of apartments on the market last week – 24
Number of apartments on the market this week – 21
NEUTRAL BAY – 2089
Number of houses on the market this time last year – 8
Number of houses on the market last week – 7
Number of houses on the market this week – 8
Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 33
Number of apartments on the market last week – 28
Number of apartments on the market this week – 27
 
ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. 
He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000.
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Lower North Shore markets are starting to run amok

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Up until now it’s very clear that federal and state politicians do not want a debate on property markets as they well know that a major overhaul is what’s required – consumers would be much better off and government revenues would be significantly reduced.
This would explain why the last significant taxation review in Australia, happened back in 2000, with the introduction of the goods and services tax (GST).
In 2008, the then Rudd Government commissioned the Henry Tax Review which was then published in 2010 – this was supposed to be Australia’s tax system reforms for the next ten to twenty years. Sadly, this review was binned and never saw the light of day as it threatened the longevity of a politician’s career. More recently, Ken Henry had another attempt to shed light on Australia’s housing affordability woes – the recommendations were immediately muted.
In December 2016, the Turnbull government completed its 20-month inquiry into home ownership in Australia. The conclusion was that Australia had no structural problem with housing affordability! This would have to be the most embarrassing finding over the last decade of Australian politics.
Australia urgently needs a property inquiry that does not include politicians or banks – this must be independent with the findings released six months before the next federal election. Then constituents can decide who they will vote for based on these findings, and the logical person to head this is Ken Henry, although our elected politicians would cringe at such a thought.
 
The Turnbull Government sixteen months ago agreed to implement many of the findings from the Murray recommendations relating to bank competition – to this day the legislation has been ignored despite publicly agreeing to act. Much like the Turnbull Government announcing that the Productivity Commission would formally investigate an inquiry into bank competition- this too, has mysteriously disappeared.
Treasurer Scott Morrison indicated this week that the government was working on a housing affordability package in the May federal budget although he has effectively ruled out most of the solutions available that must be included.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/10/House-Prices-since-GFC.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/10/House-Prices-since-GFC.png" alt="">
Australia’s big banks testified at a parliamentary inquiry into banking this week and all found to much amazement that Australia’s property prices aren’t over-inflated. Of course, they are going to say that because if they said they hold grave fears (which they all do) then there would be a huge sell-off of their respective shares. Like just what are these inquiries supposed to achieve? Maybe a lie detector would be an intelligent start – where this graph has the banks not remotely concerned.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/10/Mortgage-Nation.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/10/Mortgage-Nation.png" alt="">
Again the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the cash rate at 1.50 per cent which takes me to a topic that I have written about – why does Australia have a one fit cash rate that fits all property markets? SGS Economics principal Terry Rawnsley announced that they found if interest rates were presently set for each state and territory that there would be massive variations across Australia. Sydney would currently be at 3.75 per cent, Melbourne would be 3.50 per cent, Adelaide, Brisbane and Hobart at 0.25 per cent and Perth at 0.5 per cent. Why is the RBA not looking at these models? For example, if Sydney was at 3.75 per cent then the variable rate would be at 7.05 per cent – but we all know that this would not be good for the economy and the government’s economic standing in the global economy. I can tell you one thing, if Sydney had a variable rate of 7.05 per cent clearance rates would be half of where they sit today.
These are just a few of the discussions we should be having today, although a fair and true representation can only occur when vested and conflicted parties are not involved in the debate. Rather make the findings, and then have the much-overdue debate.
Although Canberra would rather let you know that they are steering Australia to absolute greatness. In less than a month, April 1 (and this is not an April Fool’s joke) Australia will lay claim and become the titleholder for the longest economic expansion ever recorded before once it posts our 104th quarter of economic growth.
Yep – there is a valid argument why Australia must not have any economic reform and this would explain why economic paralysis has spread so fast and wide in Canberra. They will also tell you this planning and research has enabled Sydney to post the strongest annual growth in house prices since 2003.
My-bad, I am obviously barking up the wrong tree.
ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. 
He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000.
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The three p’s of property are now political, paralysis and persuasion: Robert Simeon

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With another federal election now passed all the political rhetoric about infrastructure will be buried until the next election in three years’ time. Sadly, in Australia our elected governments are only interested in the one thing – taxes.
Since the early 1980’s politicians have conveniently discussed the construction of a high – speed rail link along the east coast where typically nothing has happened, although you can be guaranteed that it will be mentioned again prior to the next federal election. In 2013 the High Speed Rail Study Phase 2 Report estimated that a conventional High Speed Rail Express trip from Sydney to Melbourne would take 2 hours and 44 minutes (about the same time it takes to check into an airport). Sydney to Brisbane would take 2 hours and 37 minutes. Again these reports end up in the too hard basket.
Sydney is now recording the highest prices ever recorded with no signs of easing as the official cash rate keeps going down and this will be the case for easily the next decade. What is urgently required is a high – speed rail link from Sydney to Newcastle and Sydney to the Southern Highlands then to Wollongong. This is the only feasible way that property prices will ease given it’s now urgently required that these three cities are inter – connected.
In 2013 CoreLogic reported that the number of Australian suburbs with a median home value in excess of one million dollars was 264. Their latest data now indicates that this has now jumped to 570.
To provide a frightening case study in June 1992 I sold a home in Ourimbah Road Mosman for $320,000. Every two years I provide the owners with an updated weekly rental and value as the subject property is in a Superannuation Fund. In 2002, our estimated value was $775,000 to $800,00 with a rental of $600.00 to $700.00 per week. In 2006, our estimated value was $1,150,000 to $1,250,000 and the rental $900.00 to $925.00 per week. In 2014, our estimated value was $1,550,000 to $1,600,000 and the rental $1,500.00 to $1,600.00 per week. This week I assessed the property for 2016, our estimated value was $2,300,000 to $2,500,000 and the weekly rental was now $1,800.00 to $2,000.00 per week.
Little wonder the retiring Reserve Bank of Australia governor Glenn Stevens had plenty to say this week on the Australian economy in his farewell speech. Ultimately, low interest rates could only do their job when “someone somewhere has both the balance sheet capacity and the willingness to take on more debt and spend.” Obviously aimed at the federal government to start building better infrastructure in Australia. Private sector debt in Australia for companies equates to 125 per cent of GDP where the government’s debt sits at 40 per cent of GDP.
It’s quite simple that the Sydney property market needs to expand to Newcastle, Hunter Valley, Southern Highlands and Wollongong. Our federal government is spending money on public servants and social services with very little going into new infrastructure which would then drive development, employment and ease the ever growing property prices. Sydney in this instance would be the perfect test case to identify that if you get all the market machinations right you can ease property prices.
The only problem with this is that nobody wants to push and prod the elected governments of the day into direct action. It’s high time politicians became accountable instead of prime ministers claiming the mantle as being the infrastructure prime minister. In a report on High Speed Rail I read: “fast trains to connect the eastern seaboard cities of Melbourne, Canberra, Sydney and Brisbane are feasible, practical and profitable today. The project can be done for about $30 billion, about a quarter of the cost estimated on old paradigms in 2013. And it can be done in less than seven years, not the 30 to 35 years previously suggested.”
“The trains could be the 21st century equivalent of the Snowy Mountains Scheme, and would need little or no direct government funding.”
So one needs to ask the question – why then is nothing happening? Unfortunately, the answer may well be that Australian politicians have no train of thought.
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
Number of houses on the market this time last year – 47
Number of houses on the market last week – 42
Number of houses on the market this week – 51
Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 41
Number of apartments on the market last week – 41
Number of apartments on the market this week – 44
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
Number of houses on the market this time last year – 2
Number of houses on the market last week – 7
Number of houses on the market this week – 10
Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 18
Number of apartments on the market last week – 17
Number of apartments on the market this week – 16
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
Number of houses on the market this time last year – 2
Number of houses on the market last week – 7
Number of houses on the market this week – 8
Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 25
Number of apartments on the market last week – 20
Number of apartments on the market this week – 20
ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. 
He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000.
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Blame our governments for high property prices: Robert Simeon

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If some people think a declining clearance rate is a solid key performance indicator for our real estate markets they are badly mistaken as research identifies that the markets remain 60 per cent private treaty and 40% public auction.
Clearance rates are in my opinion more a mood indicator as to consumer confidence levels and not much more, although some commentators would have you believing they are the be all and end all.
If we are to better understand the intricate machinations of what is happening in our demographic markets I would like to see the property portals thinking in greater detail. For example, when a property appears on the market there should be two colour codes one for owner occupier sales and the other for investor sales. These are two entirely different market demographics although they today are bundled together despite being two totally different markets.
As I mentioned last week there will be a number of markets to watch in 2016 plus of course tax reform which is now looking much more likely with the changing of prime minister and new ministers running new portfolios. That too means new dialogue where it was quite interesting to listen to Treasurer Scott Morrison who said “the deficit reflects a spending problem, not a revenue problem”. The previous Treasurer Joe Hockey kept telling us Australia has a revenue problem not a spending problem.
You can rule out any changes to negative gearing by Messrs. Turnbull and Morrison whom will be watching what happens with the investor market, especially should the off – the – plan market have a run of defaults which is highly likely. Already the banks are starting to aggressively pull back lending for new construction projects in Sydney and Melbourne as they see some difficult times ahead with sales completions for overseas investors.
This week the Baird Government announced that 35,000 new homes would be made available in Western Sydney which would be expected to sell very quickly to owner occupiers so these developments won’t have any trouble attaining finance from the banks as this is an entirely different market demographic. Sydney urgently needs to address the owner occupier markets and housing affordability although for those watching these markets it’s getting more difficult to understand.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) announced this week that Sydney house prices have jumped by 21.5 per cent over the past year. The Sydney House Price Index (HPI) rose 9.8 per cent over the June quarter which just so happens to be the largest single increase since the ABS commenced the series back in 2002. Just imagine the clarity if the ABS could differentiate these increases between owner occupiers and investors when we know that the investors were the ones really driving these gains.
This is further explained by why the banks are cutting back lending on the new residential markets as many believe a large percentage of the foreign buyers who jumped all over the new releases in Sydney and Melbourne are having a change of heart. Such observations then allow intelligent commentaries where investment bank Morgan Stanley declared this week that the housing boom had peaked. What we are seeing at the moment is much tighter lending rules, a very strong likelihood that Sydney now has an oversupply of new apartments and migration rates are slowing.
When this happens we can expect to see the apartment sales slowing considerably and prices starting to significantly ease which is long overdue. The difference that must be noted is this time around prices may ease naturally as against crashing where today we need to remember we are looking at an entirely different market specific.
If the overseas investors withdraw from the new developments then the prices only in those individual developments would be affected. Although we then find ourselves back at mood indicators where consumer confidence would decline significantly which then flows onto property prices.
Having said that the overseas investors have been clearly the most dominant with the off – the – plan sales so there are still a very large number of local investors waiting to absorb whatever re – sales come onto the market. What we don’t know is how sympathetic they will be to the developers pricing where the previous sale price won’t be that relevant. The developers have already pocketed the 10 per cent deposit although depending on the number of defaults the new pricing could be down by 20 per cent plus given the hype is not there anymore.
There are two topics that will be intriguing in 2016 – coincidentally they both start with the letter “p”;  property and of course politics.
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 60
• Number of houses on the market last week – 52
• Number of houses on the market this week – 51
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 41
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 51
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 52
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year –9
• Number of houses on the market last week – 7
• Number of houses on the market this week – 5
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 18
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 22
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 21
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 6
• Number of houses on the market last week – 3
•Number of houses on the market this week – 7
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 35
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 29
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 28
 
ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985.  He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. 
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Property markets brace for hysteria and usual faux pas: Robert Simeon

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The biggest challenge facing the Sydney residential property market is successfully calling the market accurately as against some who pluck figures out of the air with astonishing aplomb.
My preferred guide is the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) capital city indexes for Established Houses which is released on a quarterly basis – it’s all about measuring price movements over time.
So I struggle when I see BIS Shrapnel noting that Sydney house prices have soared 45% since 2009 although I remain somewhat confused as we need to add further perspective by taking into account that house prices fell approximately 20 to 30% during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). When we average out the fall in prices at say 25% then factor the recent run on the market prices then they have in real terms only climbed 20% which is a different story to the reported 45%.
Over this same period we have seen the emergence of an entirely new market namely the investment market which has been the stand – out performer, although it has very little to do with the established house prices. I’m sure if one looks hard enough you can find data that identifies Sydney house prices have jumped 45% although I don’t believe this is an accurate assessment – more a market price manipulation.
If we go back a decade for Sydney house prices we see most interesting market price machinations – from the September quarter 2004 through to June 2006 (eight quarters) the Established Houses in Sydney were in negative growth at around -5% per quarter. From September 2006 until June 2008 Sydney went into positive growth mode although not exceeding +10% growth with a quarter average of around 5% – then the GFC hit. From September 2008 through to June 2009 Sydney was back in negative growth with negative growth quarters of 6 and 7% the highest reported. Then in September 2009 until December 2010 house prices went back into positive growth where in March 2010 price growth peaked at 19%. Then in June 2011 through to June 2012 prices fell back into negative growth although not alarming with five quarters of bouncing from -1% to -3%. Then in September 2012 until June 2015 Sydney has been experiencing its bull run which has now extended to twelve consecutive quarters with the June quarter posting the highest quarterly growth of 21% – the previous high was 17% in September 2014. I might add that the month of September seems to be a catalyst month in property price movements both positive and negative.
We also need to recognise that in the December quarter of 2008 the Rudd Government moved the off – the – plan sales for new developments from 50% to 100%, so this has been a significant driver in the investor property market. Sydney has added approximately 20,000 new apartment developments which is unprecedented by modern day property data and this has been strongly assisted by the record low cash rate of 2% that will probably go lower in 2016.
The big question that remains for the best part unanswered is just how many of the new 20,000 apartments will have their purchasers default as APRA has increased the loan value ratios and the much speculated Asian buyer defaults given the massive correction in the Chinese stock market. It’s no secret that many banks and developers have these developments on a red alert for these most obvious reasons.
Having said that we need to clearly identify that these are investors and should not be compared to the traditional housing market. The off – the – plan prices in Sydney apartment blocks has gone off the Richter scale so if there is a price correction there this would then have minimal effect on the established home prices although it would slow the market down as a result.
We just need to balance the debate – over the past 44 quarters for the percentage change in median values for established houses in Sydney 17 quarters have been in negative growth and 27 quarters in positive growth. We also need to look at the cash rate which was 3.00% in April 2013 and fell to 2.75% in May 2013 and has been stuck on 2.00% since May 2015.
The United States has been sitting on their record low cash rate for a decade now so it appears that record low cash rates is the new norm in global economies.
There is no need to panic about property prices for the established homes although the investor market will make for fascinating viewing over the next few years.
I also can’t recall ever seeing the established house market with record low numbers of properties on the market either.
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 82
• Number of houses on the market last week – 48
• Number of houses on the market this week – 49
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 50
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 60
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 60
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 14
• Number of houses on the market last week – 7
• Number of houses on the market this week – 9
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 22
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 23
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 23
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 5
• Number of houses on the market last week – 9
•Number of houses on the market this week – 9
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 51
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 21
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 23
ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985.  He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. 
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How to manipulate property market machinations: Robert Simeon

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I was left eating humble pie this week following comments I made in an interview that appeared in the Australian Financial Review pertaining to the federal government’s announcement that another six homes had been identified as being acquired illegally and a further 462 sales under investigation. 
My response was “It’s nothing more than a PR stunt and a distraction. It’s been done for feel-good cuddles” – how wrong was I.
Later that day, I received an email from the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) boss heading up this investigation which (politely) outlined the detail of their inquiry which clearly identified the magnitude of this investigation which earnestly commenced in May this year. Owners of property bought illegally must voluntarily contact the ATO prior to 1 November 2015 to receive an amnesty of not being prosecuted.
Now once and for all, we will find out exactly what’s been happening as I have been saying for quite some time that this is rife within the real estate industry. It will be fascinating to see what recommendations are made and then implemented. I have been a strong proponent of tax file numbers being provided to the ATO on the exchange of contracts for every residential sale. It will also be interesting to see if the 100% selling ratio for all new developments is brought back to 50% as it was in 2008? Opening up our property markets to international exposure has certainly led to rapid price growth from Asian property investors.
Australia had a record number of 1.7 million international tourists visit last year which included a 21% surge from China.
This inquiry is timely given the number of recent global warnings of money laundering in real estate where Sydney and Melbourne have been suggested as hot spots. Residential property in Australia is the single largest and most valuable asset class worth an estimated $5.7 trillion. Sydney now ranks third in the world for luxury residential annual price growth according to Knight Frank’s Prime Global Cities Index. Sydney’s 12.5% growth now sits just behind Miami on 13.9% and Vancouver on 15% annual price growth. The report also identified that “a year ago eight cities recorded double – digit annual price growth. This quarter only four cities fell within this bracket.”
China’s shock devaluation significantly raises the risk that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be forced to cut the cash rate further which is a worst case scenario for the RBA. More particularly when this week Deputy Governor Philip Lowe said “Given the position of household balance sheets, it is unlikely to be in our long – term interest for a consumption boom to be financed by a pick –up in household borrowing.”
“Ever-rising house prices, relative to our incomes, do increase risks in the economy and are unlikely to make us better off as a nation. Rising housing prices are best matched by rising incomes.”
Then of course we will have to wait to see how many divestment orders are issued by the ATO where hopefully the owners won’t be allowed to “flip” which was the case when Villa del Mare was issued with the first divestment order a few months back.
Another interesting aspect will be closely watching the Sydney and Melbourne clearance rates now that it is very clear the role that the ATO is playing with their pursuit of illegal purchases given that I am not the only one who thought this was all political shirt-fronting.
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 63
• Number of houses on the market last week – 48
• Number of houses on the market this week – 47
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 55
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 41
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 40
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 7
• Number of houses on the market last week – 3
• Number of houses on the market this week – 2
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 14
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 30
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 18
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 4
• Number of houses on the market last week – 2
•Number of houses on the market this week – 2
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 36
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 26
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 25
 
ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985.  He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. 
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Federal government property taskforce not for feel-good cuddles: Robert Simeon

Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

Robert Simeon

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