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It should be quite obvious by now that most Australians would agree that calling an election six months out has been nothing less than a diabolical economic disaster. On a daily basis consumers are being hit with an avalanche of misinformation which is paralysing consumer confidence within the Australian economy.
There is no better example than the relevance battle as newspapers morph their business models into the more consumer preferred online models. Newspapers will eventually cease Monday to Friday and move to the re-branded weekend editions with online publications broadcasting the working week.
A brand new environment that is fraught with danger given the survival model is based entirely on convincing investors these media initiatives will entice investors and pay wall subscribers. <a title="Media rivals facing a brave new world" href="https://www.theage.com.au/business/media-rivals-facing-a-brave-new-world-20130607-2nvh2" target="_blank">Media rivals facing a brave new world</a> which is a topic I find quite fascinating given if the pay wall strategies fail (which I think they will) the respective brands’ consumer integrity will collapse.
Online technologies are the new consumer addiction – just look at the Samsung vs Apple battle for example where it is abundantly clear that consumer communication is changing on a daily basis.
Last week we read <a title="jobless rate tipped to hit 10 – year high" href="https://www.theage.com.au/business/jobless-rate-tipped-to-hit-10year-high-20130612-2o4b0" target="_blank">jobless rate tipped to hit 10-year high</a> yet ninety minutes later we learn that the frequently compiled jobless rate went down to 5.5%. What we have today is a plethora of bad news which ends up contradicting itself – no better example than Western Australia being in recession (the week before last) only to see a correction a few hours later that it was not in recession.
Having said that I agree what Charlie Aitken wrote last week that – “what we need to put in context is that the East Coast of Australia has been in a “feels like” recession for five years.’’
I blame the federal government for this given in the <a title="March Quarter 2013 CEO Pulse" href="https://www.businessspectator.com.au/sites/default/files/arbitrary_files/456886/Business%20Spectator%20GA%20Research%20CEO%20Pulse%20Report_Qtr1_2013.pdf" target="_blank">March Quarter 2013 CEO Pulse</a> – the nation’s top chief executives’ scorecard for the government’s performance in managing the economy was down to 2.7 out of 10, which was the second lowest point it has been since Business Spectator began CEO Pulse in 2010. The lowest rating was 2.6 in Quarter 3, 2011.
“The World’s Greatest Treasurer” climbed onto his soapbox this week <a title="Swan slams recession talk " href="https://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2013/6/13/politics/swan-slams-recession-talk" target="_blank">Swan slams recession talk </a>which was an understandable rebuke given in the case of the Australian economy he is to wield the ‘Midas Touch’. The problem for Australia’s treasurer is that <a title="business confidence stuck in a rut " href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/business-confidence-stuck-in-a-rut-20130611-2o161" target="_blank">business confidence stuck in a rut </a>with the National Australia Bank business conditions index for May posting a minus 4 which was up from the minus 6 in April – despite a falling Australian dollar with record low interest rates.
Jessica Irvine filed a fantastic article on Business Spectator – <a title="Forty – three ways to boost productivity" href="https://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/6/11/economy/forty-three-ways-boost-productivity" target="_blank">Forty-three ways to boost productivity</a> an amazing critique of the Australian business economy.
<img alt="simeonjune17one" height="357" width="470" src="/images/stories/2013/06/simeonjune17one.jpg">
<img alt="simeonjune17two" height="378" width="470" src="/images/stories/2013/06/simeonjune17two.jpg">
 
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The fascination with the Mosman market continues with houses and apartment listings continuing their downward spiral in terms of available properties. These same results are being mirrored in Cremorne and Neutral Bay listings. For those hoping for a post-election property bonanza you should consider this. At this stage the federal election is set for September 14 – on September 20 NSW goes into school holidays which conclude on October 9 so we expect a strong run of new stock in the lead-up to the election with vendors punting on a change of government.
Source: Australian Property Monitors
<h4>MOSMAN – 2088</h4>
• Number of houses on the market this time 2012 – 94 • Number of houses on the market last week – 81 • Number of houses on the market this week – 76 • Number of apartments on the market this time 2012 – 89 • Number of apartments on the market last week – 59 • Number of apartments on the market this week – 60
<h4>CREMORNE – 2090</h4>
• Number of houses on the market this time 2012 – 16 • Number of houses on the market last week – 8 • Number of houses on the market this week – 9 • Number of apartments on the market this time 2012 – 19 • Number of apartments on the market last week – 10 • Number of apartments on the market this week – 9
<h4>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h4>
• Number of houses on the market this time 2012 – 17 • Number of houses on the market last week – 12 • Number of houses on the market this week – 13 • Number of apartments on the market this time 2012 – 54 • Number of apartments on the market last week – 32 • Number of apartments on the market this week – 34
Surprise, surprise! For the financial year 2010/11 there was a $39 billion claim by Australian landlords in deductions which was an 18% increase on the previous financial year.
Hence an Australian Taxation Office – <a title="crackdown on landlords after surge in claims." href="https://www.smh.com.au/money/tax/crackdown-on-landlords-after-surge-in-claims-20130611-2o26i" target="_blank">crackdown on landlords after surge in claims.</a>
Parliament sits for the final time next week until the election – I (like many others) expect a spill with another prime minister being appointed – given the previous form guide this will happen next Wednesday night where the Governor General’s son-in-law will be the union chosen one.
The real estate industry will be hoping he calls an August 3 or 10 election.
Robert Simeon is a director of <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" title="RWM">Richardson  Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay </a>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. He has also been writing real estate blog <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" title="Virtual Realty News">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. The RWM real estate model has sold in excess of $1 billion in database sales globally.
 
 
 
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robertsimeon-hRNTwJyXkQ

Strong run of new real estate stock expected for Mosman, Cremorne and Neutral Bay in lead-up to federal election: Robert Simeon

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It’s interesting to note that today the internet is the most significant communicator in the world – according to Internet World Stats, as of December 31, 2011 there was an estimated 2,267,233,742 internet users worldwide representing 32.7% of the world’s population.
Given the recent obsessions with tablets and smartphones this number would have increased significantly where I believe internet users would now be greater than 50% of the world’s population. To a certain degree our lives have become somewhat obsessive with information – sharing and accessing a multitude of networks in a relentless search for information.
I was interested to read comments this week by Andrew Jaspan, the former editor of The Age, who said paywalls were not the answer to falling print revenues – “I think you’ll probably see the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age stop printing within a year, or two years, Monday to Friday.”
Already it is becoming most obvious that the “rivers of gold” (advertising revenues) have been diverted to online platforms simply because they are much more cost effective.
Jaspan went on to say “It was one hundred and fifty years ago that newspapers were the cheapest way to distribute, now the cheapest way is online, the most expensive way is actually through newspapers. Newspapers are going to become premium price and going to sell less of them.”
Newspapers will become a weekend edition although in time I believe that they will cease to exist as tablets and smartphones become the intelligent choice of consumers.
What remains to be seen is will consumers revert to paywalls? I’m not convinced given all this does is open the door for new players to enter the online media world with smarter platforms. Paywalls are being set up by newspapers simply because online has made them redundant where it can be argued they still don’t understand online – time will tell.
The latest go-to word in the media was that nasty recession word which made a fascinating debut when applied to the Australian economy. The last recession in the early 1990s was debt related more particularly with households when the cash rate climbed to around 17% – although today it currently sits at 2.75 per cent. Professor Ross Garnaut delivered an interesting speech this week – <a target="_blank" href="https://www.whocrashedtheeconomy.com/blog/2013/05/garnaut-takes-us-behind-the-smoke-and-mirrors/" title="Garnaut takes us behind the smoke and mirrors.">Garnaut takes us behind the smoke and mirrors.</a>
“Between the recession of 1990-91 and now, mid-2013, Australians have enjoyed the longest period of economic expansion, unbroken by recession, of any developed country ever.”
He now believes Australians must choose between two different paths – ‘business as usual’ and ‘public interest’. “If we continue with ‘business as usual’, we continue to live behind the veil of ignorance that has descended around public life. But, sooner or later, we will experience deep economic recession with high unemployment.”
<img src="/images/stories/2013/06/simeonjune12one.jpg" width="470" height="339" alt="simeonjune12one">
 
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<a target="_blank" href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/fears-of-a-recession-on-the-rise-20130606-2nrki" title="Fears of a recession on the rise">Fears of a recession on the rise</a> was followed quickly with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/wa-in-recession-as-growth-slows-to-a-trickle-20130605-2nqh4" title="WA in recession as growth slows to a trickle">WA in recession as growth slows to a trickl</a>e which was then followed – up with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theage.com.au/business/wa-recession-claims-are-hysteria-20130606-2nrzv" title="WA recession claims are ‘hysteria’">WA recession claims are ‘hysteria’</a> which was a classic example of the information highway running amok. There is no doubt that Western Australia will experience a slowdown given that is exactly what is happening to the mining industry – which definitely won’t be in ‘business as usual mode’.
Whilst we are faced with huge changes ahead within the business community they are also exciting times given the one industry that is growing at the fastest pace is the online side of the business. This means that every business (in some shape or another) will have to adapt smarter online initiatives which is even more exciting given the majority of these strategies are yet to be developed. It is most obvious that online is the new consumer communicator where the only problem for business is that they still remain firmly entrenched in ‘business as usual’ mode.
Stock levels continue to decline where in some instances volume numbers are at all – time lows despite the lowest ever cash rate. Interestingly enough we are seeing more panic coming from the purchasers not the vendors.
<h4>MOSMAN – 2088</h4>
• Number of houses on the market this time 2012 – 94 • Number of houses on the market last week – 85 • Number of houses on the market this week – 81 • Number of apartments on the market this time 2012 – 96 • Number of apartments on the market last week – 64 • Number of apartments on the market this week – 59
<h4>CREMORNE – 2090</h4>
• Number of houses on the market this time 2012 – 18 • Number of houses on the market last week – 8 • Number of houses on the market this week – 8 • Number of apartments on the market this time 2012 – 37 • Number of apartments on the market last week – 15 • Number of apartments on the market this week – 10
<h4>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h4>
• Number of houses on the market this time 2012 – 16 • Number of houses on the market last week – 11 • Number of houses on the market this week – 12 • Number of apartments on the market this time 2012 – 66 • Number of apartments on the market last week – 34 • Number of apartments on the market this week – 32
It has become increasingly obvious that yes, the way we do business is rapidly changing to the extent we need to be more adaptive and coherent with the future not the past. I love the saying that “if it’s not broken don’t try and fix it” – I would add that it’s actually been broken for quite some time given business has struggled to understand the speed of the information highway.
The vast majority of businesses in Australia apply the internet on a part-time basis which is simply because the proprietors simply don’t understand it – to the extent they basically have it on ignore.
It is quite obvious for the vast majority they need to adopt new strategies given we are faced with declining markets across the board. In the case of the real estate industry life after newspapers will be a monumental challenge for the agencies.
More particularly in that they will have to fund the new-world online initiatives?
Robert Simeon is a director of <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" title="RWM">Richardson  Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay </a>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. He has also been writing real estate blog <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" title="Virtual Realty News">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. The RWM real estate model has sold in excess of $1 billion in database sales globally.
 
 
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Life after newspapers will be a monumental challenge for real estate agencies: Robert Simeon

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So now we are officially told that Australia’s resources boom is over. The Australian Bureau of Statistics has just revealed that capital expenditure in mining peaked in mid-2012 then went into negative growth over the following six months culminating in a plunge in the March quarter of 2013 – which wiped $1.5 billion from Australia’s quarterly output.
This then turns the full attention to Australia’s non-resources sector which is not really performing all that well either. Australia’s federal government has been living in an economy nothing short of being off with the pixies given Australia’s fiscal policy is “up the creek without a paddle”.
So it will be the responsibility of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to start cutting the cash rate, starting this month, to bring the Australian dollar down to incentivise the non-mining industry. The other problem the RBA is facing will be controlling the beast from within – the real estate industry – given Sydney keeps posting auction clearance of 75%-plus. Historically, when clearance rates hit 80% our property markets are in boom mode.
Although this time around I see a totally different outcome given we are still in the hangover of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) – so households will be more content with locking in the lowest possible mortgage rates. In Sydney we are seeing under-supply not oversupply. This scenario could very well change after the federal election on September 14 – should there be a change of government given property markets historically perform better under a Liberal government. A point the RBA will be most mindful of – the burning question now is just how low will the RBA drop the cash rate?
Australia’s GDP only increased by just 4% in the last five years which is somewhat scary given the resources industry investment last year comprised 60% of Australia’s GDP. The good news is that recent Top 100 Australian CEOs surveys welcome a Liberal government which is a positive sign for our economy. The negative is that the incoming government (like the RBA) will face the mother of all tasks finding a happy medium within the Australian economy.
<a style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; border: 0px; outline-width: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: #003d7d; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank" href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/australia-the-worlds-happiest-nation-oecd-20130528-2n87z" title="Australia the world’s happiest nation: OECD ">Australia the world’s happiest nation: OECD </a>based on income, jobs, housing and health, despite signs of a slowing economy. Australia has now held the top spot for the last three years. The elephant within the economy will be what happens with employment although this can be seen as a positive as businesses have re-calibrated following the GFC to see them embarking on new strategies.
Again not much change in the volumes which still remain down when compared to this time last year. We expect this to pretty well remain the case until August when vendors start engaging the property markets based on the upcoming election hype.
<img src="/images/stories/2013/06/simeonjune3one.gif" width="470" height="333" alt="simeonjune3one">
Source: Australian Property Monitors
<h4>MOSMAN – 2088</h4>
• Number of houses on the market this time 2012 – 97 • Number of houses on the market last week – 83 • Number of houses on the market this week – 85 • Number of apartments on the market this time 2012 – 101 • Number of apartments on the market last week – 67 • Number of apartments on the market this week – 64
<h4>CREMORNE – 2090</h4>
• Number of houses on the market this time 2012 – 15 • Number of houses on the market last week – 8 • Number of houses on the market this week – 8 • Number of apartments on the market this time 2012 – 36 • Number of apartments on the market last week – 19 • Number of apartments on the market this week – 15
<h4>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h4>
• Number of houses on the market this time 2012 – 18 • Number of houses on the market last week – 9 • Number of houses on the market this week – 11 • Number of apartments on the market this time 2012 – 56 • Number of apartments on the market last week – 28 • Number of apartments on the market this week – 34
From an economic viewpoint it was pleasing to read Alan Kohler write on Business Spectator – <a target="_blank" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.businessspectator.com.au/comment/310641" title="How Abbott would raise Hilmer from the dead ">How Abbott would raise Hilmer from the dead </a>– “The Coalition is planning to resurrect National Competition Policy if elected in September, including paying state governments to privatise. It’s also looking at ways to encourage infrastructure spending by providing Commonwealth guarantees and attracting investment from super funds, and is also considering keeping accelerated depreciation for business development.”
It is no secret that Australia needs a major infrastructure injection to get the non-mining industries back on the front foot. For this to happen we could very well see Australia’s cash rate fall to as low as 2%.
The next few months will be fascinating although we can expect to see businesses having a greater say to the Liberal government which will be in contrast to unions telling the Labor government how to run the economy. Based on polling it is quite apparent that Australians much prefer the former.
Robert Simeon is a director of <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" title="RWM">Richardson  Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay </a>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. He has also been writing real estate blog <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" title="Virtual Realty News">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. The RWM real estate model has sold in excess of $1 billion in database sales globally.
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RBA will have to cut cash rate to support non-mining industries: Robert Simeon

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It would be pretty clear to most economic observers that the Australian economy faces massive challenges in the years ahead. Australia’s structural budget balance is not in a good place.
Following an unprecedented economic growth during the Howard years which brought about budget surpluses the Global Financial Crisis (with the benefit of hindsight) saw the Labor government embark on a massive spending spree (mostly unfunded) which today has the federal government living well beyond its means.
Last week we observed <a title="contractor collateral in mining’s stark retreat " href="https://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/5/21/construction-and-engineering/contractor-collateral-minings-stark-retreat" target="_blank">contractor collateral in mining’s stark retreat </a>where a number of mining related businesses significantly scaled down their profit earnings. These announcements signified that the boom times in the mining industry are now a thing of the past where Australia will continue to see an ongoing scaling down of revenues and expansion.
<a title="Weak tax take threatens services: Treasury" href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/weak-tax-take-threatens-services-treasury-20130521-2jz0t" target="_blank">Weak tax take threatens services: Treasury</a> where the prognosis is that Australians will either have to pay more tax or expect poorer government services, the federal Treasury's Michael Parkinson warned.
“From its pre-crisis level of 23.7% the tax-to-GDP ratio fell to 20.1% in 2010-11.”
Finally, we are seeing Treasury acknowledging a much weaker tax take whilst the current settings for Treasury’s structural budget balance are yet to acknowledge this reality.
The dilemma the next federal government faces is finding new savings or new sources of revenue which has led to some suggesting a GST hike – which is an absolute joke!
Given that when the GST was introduced in 2000 it was agreed that the states would abolish taxes in compensation – which never happened.
<a title="Gillard rules out GST increase" href="https://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2013/5/20/politics/gillard-rules-out-gst-increase" target="_blank">Gillard rules out GST increase</a> which is an expected commentary in an election year especially given at the last election the PM ruled out a Carbon Tax too.
<a title="Greiner says GST freeze juvenile " href="https://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2013/5/21/national-affairs/greiner-says-gst-freeze-juvenile" target="_blank">Greiner says GST freeze juvenile </a>– “Changing the GST rate of 10 per cent and extending its base was dependent on the agreement of all states and territories, who were the beneficiaries of the tax. But we are in a very, very difficult unprecedented public finance situation in Australia, as is the world.”
Enter Peter Costello, the architect of the GST – <a title="Tax abolition is just comic relief " href="https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/tax-abolition-is-just-comic-relief/story-e6frezz0-1226631780911" target="_blank">Tax abolition is just comic relief </a>where he referred to NSW as “temporarily deferring” the abolition of some state taxes for 13 years – stamp duty on property transfers was one such tax that technically had been agreed for abolition.
Peter Costello says “at the economic level there is a real leadership role for a premier willing to re-invigorate the productivity agenda, restarting reform in our energy markets and our labour market. What about getting the debate back to how we can take burdens off business rather than add to them? Perhaps we could even 'temporarily defer' the introduction of any new business costs? About 13 years might be an applicable period.”
<img alt="simeonmay27one" height="371" width="470" src="/images/stories/2013/05/simeonmay27one.jpg">
Throw in a falling Australian dollar where the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has no choice but to keep cutting the cash rate or let the dollar keep rising to the detriment of the Australian economy. Australia has no choice but to enter the currency battle given interest rates in Europe and the United States are at close to zero. From what I have read and averaging out the good, bad and ugly, my prediction is that the Australian dollar will sit around 92 cents.
<img alt="simeonmay27two" height="274" width="470" src="/images/stories/2013/05/simeonmay27two.jpg">
Earlier this month Sydney auction clearance rate sat at 78.7%, which was the highest in three years.
This further challenges the RBA given the pressure to cut the cash rate whilst balancing a hotter property market – a booming property market would spell an absolute disaster.
Again interesting to note that the property volumes continue to contract although we are seeing signs that listings will increase significantly after September 14.
This analysis would suggest that selling now may very well achieve a higher sales result given after September 14 we may very well see an over – supply in stock.
The decision last week that Ford Australia would cease operations from 2016 should not come as a great surprise given motor vehicle manufacturing has not been economically viable in Australia for years. Australia simply can’t compete with Europe and Asia on the car manufacturing front so the billions and billions of government subsidies are much better spent elsewhere.
Protecting the Australian motor vehicle industry has only seen imported cars being taxed at higher rates which then make them more expensive to the consumers. Yes, it’s unfortunate for the job losses however the writing has been on the wall for years.
All global economies are re-calibrating. In Australia’s case we urgently need intelligent governments not wasteful ones who have shown little to no business acumen. It is also becoming very clear for Australian manufacturing to be competitive we need less union input into employment contracts. If the Australian unions are so smart I’m sure Ford Australia would be more than happy to sell them their entire business as a going concern.
Robert Simeon is a director of <a title="RWM" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Richardson  Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay </a>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. He has also been writing real estate blog <a title="Virtual Realty News" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. The RWM real estate model has sold in excess of $1 billion in database sales globally.
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Hotter property market poses difficulty for RBA as challenges loom for Australian economy: Robert Simeon

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What an extraordinary week it has been with the majority of punters left absolutely gobsmacked following the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision to cut the cash rate to a 53-year-low. Confusion would be an understatement to say the least given last weekend in Sydney we observed clearance rates climbing to 78.1% (the highest since 2009) and the benchmark S&amp;P/ASX200 breaking through the key 5200 threshold for the first time since 2008. Here is the <a title="Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision." href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2013/mr-13-10" target="_blank">Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision.</a>

When the cash rate was at 3.00% this was otherwise known as “emergency” levels so what do you call the cash rate when it drops to the all-time low? As quick as a flash the “World’s Greatest Treasurer” announced “These rates are coming down because the (Labor) government has had a strong fiscal policy over a period of time, which gives the bank scope to make rate cuts.” Not only delusional the man is a complete fool given his very own fiscal policy is in a complete mess.
Two weeks ago, Wayne Swan advised Australia the budget would miss its revenue forecast by $7 billion. Last week, Prime Minister Julia Gillard revised that revenue forecast upwards to $12 billion – then on Tuesday Penny Wong drew the short straw to advise it was now out by a staggering $17 billion. That is definitely not strong fiscal policy but rather an embarrassment. After consultation his dialogue changed to “it is utterly irresponsible to call today’s 25 basis point cut to the official cash rate as a cut to ‘emergency’ levels.” <a title="Westpac tips June rate cut and cash rate to fall to 2% by March 2014 " href="/news" target="_blank">Westpac tips June rate cut and cash rate to fall to 2% by March 2014 </a>should the property markets kick – up another gear the RBA will be faced with a monumental headache.
<a title="Rose Bay secures third highest Sydney Harbour sale at $30 million or higher this year" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/trophy-homes/rose-bay-secures-third-sydney-harbour-sale-at-%2430-million-or-higher-this-year/2013050661063" target="_blank">Rose Bay secures third highest Sydney Harbour sale at $30 million or higher this year</a> – What we are seeing at the top end is offshore money dominating these transactions.
The vast majority were of the opinion that the RBA would leave the cash rate unchanged given a cut would send a very clear message that the Australian economy is presently not in a good place. Despite low inflation numbers and respectable unemployment levels the RBA has sent a clear message that it will use monetary policy to invigorate the Australian economy – only time will tell how low the cash rate will have to go to achieve this outcome.
To put our 2.75% cash rate into perspective – the US is 0.25%, Bank of England 0.5%, Bank of Canada 1.00%, European Central Bank 0.5%, Japan 0.1% and China 6%.
<img alt="simeonmay13one" height="392" width="470" src="/images/stories/2013/05/simeonmay13one.jpg">
Banks rushed to pass on the full official cash rate, which is an absolute first where we can expect some to actually cut lower than the official RBA cash rate. A cash rate at record ‘emergency’ lows combined with banks fighting hard to win new customers – these are fascinating times. A day after the RBA announcement the Australian stock market again broke the key 5200 psychological threshold before finishing short of a fresh 59 – month high as investors flocked to high – yielding shares. In 2011 term deposits were paying 6% where now they are close to 4%. With this bubbles start appearing albeit this time in both categories – property and shares.
<img alt="simeonmay13two" height="319" width="470" src="/images/stories/2013/05/simeonmay13two.jpg">
A slight comeback with house listings this week which is a vast improvement on previous week’s data. Apartments in Mosman are having a slight rally although these results are certainly not being mirrored in Cremorne and Neutral Bay. Once upon a time Mosman and Neutral Bay apartments would be neck and neck when it came to listings – today Neutral Bay is offering less than half what it usually offers.
Source: Australian Property Monitors
<h4>MOSMAN – 2088</h4>
• Number of houses on the market this time 2012 – 111 • Number of houses on the market last week – 76 • Number of houses on the market this week – 83 • Number of apartments on the market this time 2012 – 104 • Number of apartments on the market last week – 75 • Number of apartments on the market this week – 85
<h4>CREMORNE – 2090</h4>
• Number of houses on the market this time 2012 – 14 • Number of houses on the market last week – 11 • Number of houses on the market this week – 17 • Number of apartments on the market this time 2012 – 35 • Number of apartments on the market last week – 19 • Number of apartments on the market this week – 17
<h4>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h4>
• Number of houses on the market this time 2012 – 19 • Number of houses on the market last week – 5 • Number of houses on the market this week – 7 • Number of apartments on the market this time 2012 – 66 • Number of apartments on the market last week – 32 • Number of apartments on the market this week – 29
 
Back to the Gillard Government’s failed fiscal policies which is now a train wreck – <a title="Labor abandons promised carbon price tax cuts" href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/labor-abandons-promised-carbon-price-tax-cuts-20130508-2j6ix" target="_blank">Labor abandons promised carbon price tax cuts</a> which was inevitable given at the federal election on September 14 Australian employees will be voting to keep their jobs. <a title="How Gillard cooked the business goose" href="https://spectator01.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/5/7/economy/how-gillard-cooked-business-goose" target="_blank">How Gillard cooked the business goose</a> which identifies exactly why the RBA has uncharacteristically stepped in to stimulate the Australian economy.
<img alt="simeonmay13three" height="216" width="470" src="/images/stories/2013/05/simeonmay13three.jpg">
Not just governments making woeful decisions – Fairfax Media have decided not to renew Margie Blok’s contract so her finger prints will no longer be seen on Title Deeds. When you lose great property journalists like Jonathan Chancellor now at <a title="Property Observer" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/" target="_blank">Property Observer</a> and Margie your brand diminishes considerably. At the end of the day it is all about readership and given the current diabolical Saturday Domain layouts consumers may well return serve with their very own advertising – cost cutting?
Looking forward to delivering the Fudge–it edition next week. It turns out I will be attending a wedding in Phuket so I will be delivering my Thai budget expose. No doubt it will be hot with plenty of kick.
Robert Simeon is a director of <a title="RWM" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Richardson  Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay </a>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. He has also been writing a real estate blog <a title="Virtual Realty News" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000 which is republished weekly on Property Observer. The RWM real estate model has sold in excess of $1 billion in database sales globally.
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Margie Blok's SMH Title Deeds departure heralds further Domain brand diminishment: Robert Simeon

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Plenty of economic curve balls are being thrown about at the moment that point directly at incompetence – why are these blunders accepted as the norm?
The Grattan Institute’s <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/a-decade-of-deficits-forecast-20130421-2i8hh" target="_blank">assessment</a>: Australia faces a decade of budget deficits with the annual total set to pass $60 billion in 2023 unless governments take tough action to “share the pain”.
In the past 11 years Australia has become <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/australia-the-costs-are-spiralling-20130422-2ian3" target="_blank">one of the most expensive places to live in</a>, costlier than New York, London, Frankfurt and Singapore on everything. The report compiled by Deutsche Bank found Australia is part of a global economy operating in a competitive world. High wages, high input costs including energy and rental costs, the inflation bogey and the tyranny of distance all contribute to the country’s lacklustre productivity and falling competitiveness. But it has reached a point where something has to give.
Deloitte Access Economics is <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/soft-landing-tipped-despite-end-of-mining-boom-and-fewer-jobs-20130422-2iant" target="_blank">forecasting</a> growth to remain a bit above trend until 2015-16 before rising.
It forecasts: "Western Australia will be hit hardest, even in a benign scenario. In 2013/14 Queensland will replace it as Australia’s engine of growth and by 2015 – 16 it expects even Tasmania to be outgrowing WA. NSW and Victoria are forecast to continue growing about half a percentage point slower than the national growth rate. Job growth would also be subdued, with a net 40,000 manufacturing jobs to go in the next three years, but employment would remain about the same as older workers retire rather than joining the dole queues."
<a title="Hooray, we might lose the AAA" href="https://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/4/24/economy/hooray-we-might-lose-aaa" target="_blank">Hooray, we might lose the AAA</a> “a surplus in 2013 – 14 is now impossible, as both political parties have acknowledged. In his sixth and final budget Wayne Swan will bring down a deficit of $10 – 15 billion, saying: “it’s not my fault – the terms of trade made me do it”. That, and too much spending. The budget is structural deficit because Treasury’s forecasts of growth have been out by about 1% a year for four years and the government has been spending to just under revenue forecasts, which have been wrong. On top of this we have seen public service employment outstripping the private sector which will change as the public service faces severe employment adjustments.
The United Kingdom just escaped its first “triple – dip” recession in modern history with its economy growing 0.3% last quarter – the UK is walking a dangerous economic tightrope.
<img alt="simeonapril29one" src="/images/stories/2013/04/simeonapril29one.jpg" width="470" height="334">
 
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 <a title="Solid start for house prices" href="https://news.domain.com.au/domain/real-estate-news/solid-start-for-house-prices-20130423-2icxt" target="_blank">Solid start for house prices</a> the Fairfax owned Australian Property Monitors said house prices in the southern capital grew 3.6% to $538,922 over the three months while Sydney median grew 1.6% to $673,681. Quite an amazing statistic given a majority of these sales are yet to settle so the sale price still remains confidential – a guesstimate?
Australian Property Monitors (APM) reporting of Mosman sales evidence is riddled with errors based on my analysis. For apartments it shows in the March quarter the highest sale was $5,275,000 although I can find absolutely no evidence of such a sale taking place. For houses in the same quarter they identified the highest sale as being $15,250,000 – which I later pointed out to them was actually $5,250,000. Look at how much this changes last week’s reported data.
MOSMAN HOUSE PRICES MARCH QUARTER 2013
Last week APM reported:
<ul>
<li>
Total Sales: 51
</li>
<li>
Total Value: $143,151,500
</li>
<li>
Median Price: $2,250,000
</li>
<li>
Average Price: $2,806,892
</li>
</ul>
One week later –
<ul>
<li>
Total Sales: 54
</li>
<li>
Total Value: $135,019,000
</li>
<li>
Median Price: $2,162,500
</li>
<li>
Average Price: $2,500,352
</li>
</ul>
That’s a massive discrepancy! Watch the apartment figures be revised downwards when I point out the highest apartment sale never existed – just as the highest house price did also.
Again the listings volumes are tracking to all time historic lows – I can’t ever before remember seeing such a pattern especially as we have an equally record low cash rate.
Source: Australian Property Monitors
MOSMAN – 2088
• Number of houses on the market this time 2012 – 106
• Number of houses on the market last week – 84
• Number of houses on the market this week – 76
• Number of apartments on the market this time 2012 – 100
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 73
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 75
• Number of houses on the market this time 2012 – 13
• Number of houses on the market last week – 11
• Number of houses on the market this week – 11
• Number of apartments on the market this time 2012 – 34
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 20
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 19
NEUTRAL BAY – 2089
• Number of houses on the market this time 2012 – 14
• Number of houses on the market last week – 6
• Number of houses on the market this week – 5
• Number of apartments on the market this time 2012 – 61
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 37
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 32
These statistics will be all the more fascinating over the coming winter months where I predict the number of houses and apartments in Mosman could see listing volumes fall below 50. Given the higher rental yields investors are not selling which is to be expected given the record high rental rates. Apartment buyers are paying well above what investors are prepared to pay which all but guarantees that rents will continue to increase.
As for what houses will do is anyone’s guess.
Robert Simeon is a director of <a title="RWM" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Richardson  Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay </a>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. He has also been writing real estate blog <a title="Virtual Realty News" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. The RWM real estate model has sold in excess of $1 billion in database sales globally.
 
 
 
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Economic curve balls point to incompetence: Robert Simeon

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Sometimes the truth hurts and the message in the latest CEO Pulse sent a very clear message to the Gillard government.
<a title="CEO Pulse: CEOs feel better now" href="https://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/4/16/economy/ceo-pulse-ceos-feel-better-now" target="_blank" style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; border: 0px; outline-width: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: #003d7d; text-decoration: none;">CEO Pulse: CEOs feel better now</a> which just so happens to be the most positive for two years – that’s because we are closing in on an election and a change of government.
“CEOs are fed up with Treasurer Wayne Swan and the government, but that’s no surprise, and they think Treasury usually gets its forecasts wrong, which it does, but nevertheless Australia’s bosses are feeling better about their own businesses and the economy than they have since this time in 2011.”
“60% expect to increase sales over the next twelve months, up from 52% three months ago, and 53% expect to increase profit, up from 48%. In the second half of last year, most CEOs thought their profit would fall in 2013, which was a remarkable statistic.”
“Two thirds of CEOs say they aren’t delaying any capital expenditure decisions until after either the federal budget or the election in September (18% said they were waiting ‘til after the election), but unsurprisingly, the overwhelming majority (86%) said a Coalition victory would be the best for the country and for their business.”
The declines across Australia continue for first-home buyers with loan approvals falling 1.5% in February making up just 14.4% of the overall market. I have never been a supporter of artificially inseminating property markets by throwing around free money. It should be noted that when vacancy rates are at all-time lows this further complicates the issue given property rents are climbing much higher than property values. <a title="Rental growth to keep pace with house price growth over the next two years led by WA: NAB survey" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/landlords/rental-growth-to-keep-pace-with-house-price-growth-over-next-two-years-led-by-wa-nab-survey/2013041460347" target="_blank">Rental growth to keep pace with house price growth over the next two years led by WA: NAB survey</a> – Rents are forecast to rise 3.6% over the next two years.
<p style="padding: 0px 0px 24px; margin: 0px; border: 0px; outline-width: 0px; font-family: Georgia, Palatino, 'Palatino Linotype', Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; vertical-align: baseline; color: #707070; line-height: 24px; font-size: 15px !important;"><img alt="simeonapril23onethumb" height="324" width="470" src="/images/stories/2013/04/simeonapril23onethumb.gif">
NSW is a major casualty after 15 years of an ineffective and hopeless government where today <a title="QLD and WA attracting New South Welshmen in droves: RP Data." href="/news" target="_blank">QLD and WA attracting New South Welshmen in droves: RP Data.</a> On a state-by-state basis population growth has been the strongest in absolute terms within Victoria (94,837), Queensland (91,389), New South Wales (86,033) and Western Australia (81,694). It is interesting to note that New South Wales and Western Australia both have the highest rentals. These four states account for 92.5% of total population growth over the 12 months to September 2012.
As a result 18,448 more residents have left New South Wales than arrived over the year. This should and must be a major concern for the NSW government given history clearly shows that when a family moves seldom do they return – given the decision is all about lifestyle.
<p style="padding: 0px 0px 24px; margin: 0px; border: 0px; outline-width: 0px; font-family: Georgia, Palatino, 'Palatino Linotype', Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; vertical-align: baseline; color: #707070; line-height: 24px; font-size: 15px !important;"><img alt="simeonapril23twothumb" height="319" width="470" src="/images/stories/2013/04/simeonapril23twothumb.gif">
We are one month away from the federal government delivering its final budget deficit. Massive problems with the collapse of the price of carbon in Europe which sits at around $3.35 a tonne and Australia’s price is fixed at $23.00 per tonne until 2015. Opposition treasurer commented, “If the European price today is to be applied to the budget there would be a budget hole of at least $7 billion in just one year.”
Last week we learnt the “World’s Greatest Treasurer” Wayne Swan is now refusing to pay the $725 million collected as flood recovery monies even though it appeared in the forward estimates. This is the money that the Gillard government imposed (otherwise known as a levy) on Australian taxpayers. This highlights how bad the Gillard government’s finances are despite constant reassurances – remember the 2012/13 budget was a non-negotiable return to surplus!
Out of interest from 2002 – 2007 the Howard government spent $978 billion from revenues of $1.067 trillion – from 2007 – 2012 the Gillard government spent $1.729 trillion from $1.543 trillion in receipts.
The upcoming Fudge – it will fascinating.
Robert Simeon is a director of <a title="RWM" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Richardson  Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay </a>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. He has also been writing real estate blog <a title="Virtual Realty News" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. The RWM real estate model has sold in excess of $1 billion in database sales globally. 
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Upcoming election boosts CEO confidence as FHBs continue to struggle: Robert Simeon

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Election years are always fascinating given it's fair to say that we live in a society based on excuses so let’s wait and see what happens on September 14.
What has become more than obvious post-GFC is that buyers’ profiling has changed dramatically given we have fewer buyers in the top-end markets.
This then becomes indicative when you do a comparative analysis of the market (which we do weekly) where houses in Mosman are thus far in 2013 on average 25% down on last year.
We were doing a session with our <a target="_blank" href="https://www.activategrowth.com.au/index">real estate coach Daniel Spencer</a> this week where we were profiling the Mosman buyers who were placed in four categories – strongest to weakest.
Out of Area – (Passive) – (the strongest). This category is represented by overseas buyers and out of area that have made the decision to buy now and are not persuaded by negative property press.
Local Buyers – (Passive) – not actively looking however prepared to engage immediately should the right property become available. They have specific requirements namely style and location.
Out of Area – (Active) – have been monitoring the market for some time inspecting all properties that meet their buying criteria – have looked at multiple properties.
Local Buyers – (Active) – prior to the GFC our strongest buyer profile however they have experienced first-hand declining markets which has resonated in their overall market confidence – to the extent that they are buyers today only at a price. Previously the number one buyers in this demographic were merchant bankers – which explains why this category has moved from first to last.
The GFC has brought about serious lifestyle and household changes – mainly due to significant changes in the business environment where today the vast majority are working more for less.
For example, in NSW it was reported late last year that the richest suburbs (based on incomes) are <a target="_blank" href="/news">Double Bay</a> – <a target="_blank" href="/news">Bellevue Hill</a> recording an average income of $129,116. <a target="_blank" href="/news">Mosman</a> was next with $126,956, <a target="_blank" href="/news">Hunters Hill</a> – <a target="_blank" href="/news">Woolwich</a> on $123,956 and <a target="_blank" href="/news">Woollahra</a> on $123,869.
The number of bankruptcies in the March quarter of 2013 was the lowest recorded in a quarter since 1996. It is interesting to note that the <a href="/news">Fairfield</a> – <a href="/news">Liverpool</a> suburbs are the worst performing in NSW with a 30-day plus delinquency rate of 2.44% which equates to 16 out of 1,000 borrowers in arrears. Mosman has one of the lowest delinquency rates in Australia which will surprise many.
Australian Property Monitors released last week its Housing Market Report – Australian Capital Cities and Gold Coast residential property market.
 
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
Sydney
The Sydney market has commenced 2013 with increased buyer and seller activity.
Weekend auction clearance rates have been impressive, tracking nearly 20% higher than those recorded over the same period last year.
Early season clearance rates have been similar to those recorded during the boom period of autumn 2010 and are a positive indication of rising market confidence. Signs are also emerging of a more generalised lift in Sydney buyer activity, with increased sales in the prestige market.
<img src="/images/stories/2013/04/simeonapril15one.jpg" width="470" height="444" alt="simeonapril15one">
<img src="/images/stories/2013/04/simeonapril15two.jpg" width="470" height="458" alt="simeonapril15two">
Whilst RWM did post the two highest top-end sales for 2013 in the Mosman market last week the market still has a long way to go to returning to the halcyon days of yesteryear.
 
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
What is interesting for property markets is actually profiling the buyers – the two top-end sales this week went to Passive Local Buyers.
We are the only Mosman real estate agency profiling buyers. What many are asking (without knowledge) is ‘will the Local–Active buyers make a return?’
Greatly assisting real estate markets is anecdotal evidence that clearly shows declining listings with many vendors opting to delay entering the market until after the federal election on September 14.
The only problem with that strategy is the uncertainty of stock-rush given this strategy could fail due to a surging oversupply.
Despite conflicting opinions consumer confidence still remains the elephant in the room – evidenced with this week’s announcement <a title="jobless rate jumps as economy sheds jobs. " href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/jobless-rate-jumps-as-economy-sheds-jobs-20130411-2hmxa" target="_blank">jobless rate jumps as economy sheds jobs.</a>
Australia’s manufacturing industry will continue to decline then disappear as we are no longer competitive. The federal government will stop propping it up as it is a lost cause given we can’t get close to competing with Asian markets.
I would suggest we pay absolutely no attention to property speculation that property markets are rising, simply because it’s a lazy analogy using mammoth markets not individual niche markets. Whilst <a title="caught short: housing sceptics proved wrong" href="https://www.afr.com/p/blogs/christopher_joye/caught_short_housing_sceptics_proved_9N9nULnQzqQtqDVjLjABJJ" target="_blank">caught short: housing sceptics proved wrong</a> promoting a façade of good times ahead is in my view premature and irresponsible.
What's happening in Perth markets has absolutely no relevance to individual Sydney markets.
When markets boom it starts at the top-end and that is not about to start anytime soon.
This time around it is the lower end that is booming. Last week, I wrote that last year Australian companies were involved in 1,037 deals worth $US65.46 billion, a marked decline from 2007, in the peak of the equities boom.
In that year, companies locked in $214.7 billion in mergers and acquisitions in 2,267 deals. In 2013 all reports are that this figure will decline further so top – end markets won’t be booming.
Simply put: they will remain in a holding pattern for quite some time, which explains why we spend so much time profiling the buyers.
Robert Simeon is a director of <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" title="RWM" style="font-size: 14px;">Richardson  Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay </a>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. He has also been writing real estate blog <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" title="Virtual Realty News" style="font-size: 14px;">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. The RWM real estate model has sold in excess of $1 billion in database sales globally.
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Big changes in buyer profiles

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At the beginning of 2013, some were predicting that the cash rate would drop to around 2% – I remained in the school of thought that it won’t go below 3%.
The gallery remains divided although one can’t help but notice that the <a target="_blank" href="/news">cash rate setting</a> is the monetary policy indicator as to the overall health of our economy.
Retail and real estate suggestions that it must be lower are, in my opinion, self-serving.
The TG Securities Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge increased by 0.2% in March for a 2.1% annual pace which just so happens to be the lowest annual inflation result for eight months.
Australia as a nation has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theage.com.au/business/manufacturing-contracts-for-14th-month-20130402-2h3qp">many economic problems</a> with Australian Industry Group chief executive Innes Wilcox commenting: “The strong dollar, falling selling prices, further cost pressures and the weakness of commercial and residential construction continue to take their toll.”
The head of Australia’s peak business group <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2013/3/28/politics/govt-should-invest-infrastructure-bca">has urged the federal government to invest more in infrastructure</a>, even if it means borrowing for top–priority projects. The only problem is that the federal government has been handing out money to buy the votes of the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.news.com.au/money/money-matters/independent-federal-mps-win-15-billion-for-their-electorates/story-e6frfmd9-1226611161247" title="Independent federal MP’s win $1.5 billion for their electorates.">Independent federal MP’s win $1.5 billion for their electorates.</a>
The Reserve Bank of Australia is responsible for monetary policy not fiscal policy where it should be remembered that in Australia we have approximately one third who rent, one third who own a house with a mortgage and the final third own their house with no mortgage. A difficult balancing act given two thirds would much prefer a higher cash rate with one third relying on a lower cash rate.
I don’t concur with the thought bubble <a target="_blank" href="https://canberratimes.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/we-are-in-an-up-cycle-now-property-agents-rejoice-as-good-news-rolls-in-20130402-2h4gc" title="‘We are in an up cycle now’: property agents rejoice as good news rolls in">‘We are in an up cycle now’: property agents rejoice as good news rolls in</a>with RP Data figures showing that dwelling values (houses and apartments combined) across Australia’s capital cities increased by 2.8% thus far in 2013.
Of course prices should be climbing due to a record low cash rate together with Australia’s population growing by 1.7% in the year to September 2012 which is the highest annual recorded rate since December 2009; this is above the 30-year average of 1.4% according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
<img height="308" width="470" src="/images/stories/2013/04/simeonapril8one.jpg" alt="simeonapril8one">
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.theage.com.au/business/mergers-at-eightyear-low-20130401-2h31n" title="Mergers at eight – year low">Mergers at eight – year low</a> previously the resources sector led this demographic market which now appears to be slowing down. Last year Australian companies were involved in 1,037 deals worth $US65.46 billion, a marked decline from 2007, in the peak of the equities boom. In that year, companies locked in $214.7 billion in mergers and acquisitions in 2,267 deals.
 
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This resonates through <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-27/australian-homebuyer-confidence-lowest-since-2008-genworth-says" title="Australian homebuyer confidence hits lowest since 2008">Australian homebuyer confidence hits lowest since 2008</a> – while Australian employers added the most jobs in almost 13 years in February and the economy expanded 3.6% in 2012, business confidence and home–loan approvals declined, illustrating continuing concerns about the nation’s economic outlook. These results are more evident in the suburbs that previously relied on high investment bank participation – which is obviously the missing link today.
<img height="461" width="470" src="/images/stories/2013/04/simeonapril8two.jpg" alt="simeonapril8two">
<img height="477" width="470" src="/images/stories/2013/04/simeonapril8three.jpg" alt="simeonapril8three">
I’m a huge fan of Warwick J. McKibbin, who recently posted <a target="_blank" href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2013/03/12-australian-economic-policy-mckibbin" title="Poor economic policy must end no matter who wins Australian election ">Poor economic policy must end no matter who wins Australian election </a>– an excellent critique of the Australian economy since 2007:
“Key to improving Australia’s performance will be the move away from populist short – term policy along a path of structural reform that increases the flexibility of the Australian economy. Large investments in infrastructure and efficient pricing of congestion and other problems are needed to drive productivity growth. These investments should be based on independent assessment of the economic returns and not the political returns to marginal seats or the lobbying of vested interests. The Productivity Commission is critical to this process. Most urgently there is need for comprehensive review of current government spending programs and measures to reform the tax system. Australia desperately needs the next prime minister to be a leader rather than one who is a fighter.”
Hear, hear!
Robert Simeon is a director of <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" title="RWM" style="font-size: 14px;">Richardson  Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay </a>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. He has also been writing real estate blog <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" title="Virtual Realty News" style="font-size: 14px;">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. The RWM real estate model has sold in excess of $1 billion in database sales globally.
 
 
 
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Industry suggestions that the cash rate should be lower are self-serving: Robert Simeon

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I have this strange fascination post-GFC in Australia as to where our businesses are headed and as to what will live and what will die (every business owner's concern).
One can rest assured that the dominant players will be all over the emerging online markets and will be closely scrutinising technology markets for clues to survival.
Having said that I see two major players emerging – <a target="_blank" href="https://www.woolworths.com.au/wps/wcm/connect/website/woolworths?s_kwcid=TC%7C15523%7Cwoolworths%7C%7CS%7Ce%7C23668539341&amp;gclid=CJrg1cn0jrYCFYYhpQodBVIATg" title="Woolworths">Woolworths</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.coles.com.au/" title="Coles">Coles</a>. Australia presently has two million small businesses registered, employing approximately five million people. As Fairfax Media's Adele Ferguson <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/is-big-business-getting-too-aggressive-20130319-2gdkt" target="_blank">reported</a>:
"In the past two years, the food and liquor discounting between Coles and Woolworths has never been as fierce or the cries from suppliers louder. Last year Coles estimated there had been price deflation of 2 per cent a year since the start of 2009, and matching competitor price cuts, which has saved consumers more than $2 billion a year."
Just look at the Coles and Woolworths move into the liquor industry and service stations. As David Purchase, executive director of the Victorian Automobile Chamber of Commerce, told Fairfax Media:
“From in excess of 22,000 service stations [in 1980] to less than 6,000 now, has the reduction in numbers and the reduction in competition done anything for the motorist, who certainly is not paying less for fuel, let alone the independent who is no longer in business?”
So let me make a prediction – I can see Coles and Woolworths entering the Australian property portal industry currently controlled by <a target="_blank" href="https://www.realestate.com.au/buy/property-house-in-mosman%2c+nsw+2088%3b+/list-1?source=location-search" title="Real Estate">Real Estate</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.domain.com.au/Search/buy/State/NSW/Area/North-Shore-Lower/Region/Sydney-Region/Suburb/Mosman/?ssubs=1&amp;searchterm=Mosman" title="Domain">Domain</a>. Their portals would be free to the property advertisers with consumers eyeballs being mesmerised by shopping dockets, cheaper alcohol offerings and cheaper petrol prices. Previously only the mortgage markets have dominated third-party advertising on property portals.
Homes (for sale or rent) = lifestyle = household expenditure = savings. Australia is one of the only markets worldwide where property portals charge home owners to advertise their homes online – I see this changing.
Business since the GFC is all about seeking and exploring new profit streams with a stronger than ever concentration on entering online markets in search for the new “rivers of gold.” Watch for Woolworths and Coles to start rolling out online models with real estate being the perfect fit.
That’s food for thought?
Robert Simeon is a director of <a title="RWM" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" style="font-size: 14px;">Richardson  Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay </a>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. He has also been writing real estate blog <a title="Virtual Realty News" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" style="font-size: 14px;">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. The RWM real estate model has sold in excess of $1 billion in database sales globally.
 
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Watch for Coles and Woolworths to move into property portal industry: Robert Simeon

Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

Robert Simeon

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