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It’s been quite fascinating to follow the Asian buying phenomenon of Australian real estate of late – more particularly how the buying demographics are changing. Most notable the smallest market demographic today in Australian real estate is brand new constructed properties which remain dominated by Asian investors. In recent times we have seen a shift with Asian investors moving into the traditional home market which previously was a no-go market. A reason why would be that this is Australia’s largest property market so it makes sense that now they want to participate in all the available markets.
On a global scale Australia has not really attracted the ultra high net worth individuals (UHNWI) although we are now witnessing this emerging market with the world’s wealthiest fast tracking real estate acquisitions in Australia. Knight Frank 2014 forecasts that 66% of global growth in the numbers of UHNWIs will be from Asia over the next 10 years.
No doubt they would be closely observing that prices have been the strongest in Sydney (up 14% over the past year), Perth (9%), and Melbourne (8%) although it is yet to be ascertained what percentage of these new found gains can be attributed to foreign ownership. Knight Frank Australia’s research director Matt Whitby said there was growing demand from Asian buyers, particularly Chinese, for prestige residential properties in Sydney: “This is driving prices and it is expected Sydney’s prime market growth will continue into 2014, buoyed by low interest rates and steady foreign demand, especially from South-East Asia and China.”
In 2013, over 74% of overseas investment into residential developments in Australia originated from Asia. If one looks at the Forbes billionaires list there are 135 property tycoons in the list who have obviously benefited of late from surging property values around the globe. Even more interesting is that 14 out of the top 20 richest property billionaires hail from Asia. This is further reinforced by recent Foreign Investment Review Board data which shows that Chinese buyers poured $5.9 billion into Australian property last financial year.
Last week in Property Observer Jonathan Chancellor wrote an interesting piece <a href="/news/the-ngs-singapores-richest-family-spend-425-million-on-sydney-trophy-property">The Ngs, Singapore’s richest family, spent $425 million on Sydney trophy property,</a> which again highlights how Sydney in particular is now top of the shopping list for wealthy Asian investors. The sad reality being that with all the buying loopholes currently available in Australia our government has absolutely no idea just how large this buying purge is – well not until 2016 when the next Census of Population and Housing is conducted in Australia.
<a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/03/13-03-2014-11-58-11-AM.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8465" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/03/13-03-2014-11-58-11-AM.jpg" alt="13-03-2014 11-58-11 AM" width="460" height="234"></a>
<a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/03/13-03-2014-11-59-51-AM.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8466" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/03/13-03-2014-11-59-51-AM.jpg" alt="13-03-2014 11-59-51 AM" width="460" height="255"></a>
Interesting that the research into these graphs by Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) found their surveys identified that after 12 months in Australia most are likely to buy in Sydney (47%) or Perth (35%). By extrapolating this data DFA estimates demand for property from migration over the next three years shows an extra 900,000 properties will be needed – of this about 5.6% is driven by net migration. On that basis given past and present construction data I would think we would be lucky to see 300,000 of the required 900,000 new homes built by 2016. On that very basis it would be reasonable to assume that prices more particularly in Sydney will continue to rise for quite some considerable time to come. At some stage down the track governments will be left with no alternative but to play catch – up where the fastest way to do that will be to build highrise developments.
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Negative gearing is now completely out of control to the extent it has the government at a complete loss to understand what is the best approach.
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Unfortunately in Australia today, aside from not having a Housing Minister, there is no strategic housing plan in place so there is absolutely no possibility of these recommended key performance indicators being met. Why should overseas investors be allowed to qualify for first home buyer grants? Then of course we come to negative gearing which is now completely out of control to the extent it has the government at a complete loss to understand what is the best way to bring this back under control.
I’m proud to say that <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/2014/03/07/the-great-chinese-property-burn/" target="_blank">last week’s post</a> did start many conversations<a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/2014/03/07/the-great-chinese-property-burn/" target="_blank" title="The Great Chinese Property Burn.">.</a> Which is why I believe that Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey will tighten overseas buyers when the May Budget is handed down because nobody can really tell just how powerful this buying dynamic is until many years later.
A Housing Minister and an Australian strategic housingpPlan would be a wonderful start given at present we are catering for parties with absolutely no idea how many will turn up. We all know what happens when that happens, don’t we.
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robertsimeon-hRNTwJyXkQ

The shifting dynamics of the current buyer demographic 

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As more property data is released we are fast seeing concerning scenarios that raise more questions than answers.
Although it was not well documented it is clear that the previous Labor government relaxed foreign ownership regulations to appease the state governments who were experiencing revenue drains, as these changes then topped up stamp duty revenues. The only problem is that the two standout property players are Chinese buyers and investors who are busily topping up their self-managed superannuation funds (SMSF).
Given that the Abbott government decided that a Housing Minister was not warranted in their new government, it appears that the weight of this portfolio now rests firmly on the shoulders of Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens who is trying to balance Australia’s property imbalance.
The latest figures from the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) reveal overseas buyers purchased a record 5,091 established homes worth $5.4 billion last financial year, compared with 647 properties to a value of $810 million in 2009-10.
There is very little that the Australian government can do about the SMSFs, we are hearing strong rumours that in the May Budget the government will shut down the Chinese property splurge. Which many will argue is a good move for the long-term property markets given the overseas buyers are paying over and above the expected market price. More particularly with the Abbott government fighting opinion polls, such a move could vastly improve its consumer ratings.
With the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) deciding to leave the cash rate at 2.50% for the foreseeable future, such a move would open the property markets up again to the first home buyers who have been swamped by the overseas buyers and investors. The RBA released their financial aggregates to January 2014 this week which shows that investment and housing lending has reached $1.33 trillion. This now takes investment loan accounts to 32.9% of all loans, which is the highest ever recorded in Australia.
<a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/03/18-02-2014-3-02-34-PM.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8454" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/03/18-02-2014-3-02-34-PM.jpg" alt="18-02-2014 3-02-34 PM" width="460" height="279"></a>
Let’s face it, whilst new housing construction data showed an increase this month we are kidding ourselves if we believe we are keeping up with market demand. A recent study by Digital Finance Analytics estimated that over the next three years Australia will need more than 900,000 new properties to meet demand, when over the last 12 months Australia only managed to achieve 183,000 units. That would be a fail with a capital F! Given that <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/property/locals-priced-out-by-24b-chinese-property-splurge-20140305-346hd" target="_blank" title="locals priced out by $24b Chinese property splurge">locals priced out by $24b Chinese property splurge</a> where a report by Credit Suisse said: “A generation of Australians are being priced out of the property market. Many face a life time of renting.”
<a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/03/3-03-2014-9-42-07-AM.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8456" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/03/3-03-2014-9-42-07-AM.jpg" alt="3-03-2014 9-42-07 AM" width="460" height="244"></a>
Another factor that will have significant repercussions was the decision by the Canadian government on February 11 that a 28 – year old visa scheme designed to attract wealthy foreigners to the country would be axed, effective immediately. This announcement will bring greater attention to Australian real estate markets, which in turn will add additional pressures on the local markets to compete against the tsunami of funds coming into the country. Once word gets out that the Australian government could follow that same path as the Canadian government we will see quite possibly the strongest and most aggressive foreign acquisition activity ever seen before in Australia.
<a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/03/28-02-2014-4-11-49-PM.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8458" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/03/28-02-2014-4-11-49-PM.jpg" alt="28-02-2014 4-11-49 PM" width="460" height="273"></a>
We are right in the middle of the four week period in 2013 when Mosman houses sat above the 100 mark – it now appears that it is highly likely that Mosman won’t break the 100 mark in 2014. Should this be the case then that would the first time in decades that this has happened.
The simple reality of our property markets are that stock levels are at all-time lows which place that responsibility firmly at the state and federal governments where significant policy changes will need to be implemented. The current Senate inquiry into affordable housing won’t offer an iota of intelligent reasoning or solutions.
What remains to be seen is whether or not the Treasurer Joe Hockey has the fortitude to make such a decision? My tip is that yes he will.
 
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The end of the great Chinese property splurge?

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If you are confused with what’s presently happening within the Australian economy you’re not alone. Already in 2014 we have seen the announcements that motor vehicle manufacturing in Australia is closing down and this week Qantas announced that a further 5,000 jobs will be cut by the carrier. It’s abundantly clear that since the global financial crisis (GFC) Australian businesses are adopting a new mandate: Do something. Either lead, follow, or get out of the way!
Last week we saw another shock announcement with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2014/2/27/australian-news/capex-drops-dec-quarter" title="CAPEX drops in December quarter">CAPEX dropping in the December quarter</a> which in all probability confirms that Australian businesses are more than cautious in 2014 – which certainly contravenes previous speculation that the markets were upbeat about what 2014 will bring. Whilst this does not spell the end of the world this significantly highlights that consumer sentiment is wavering, which is consistent with what we saw during and since the GFC.
Like most progressive businesses we had a session yesterday with our real estate coach <a target="_blank" href="https://www.activategrowth.com.au/index" title="Daniel Spencer ">Daniel Spencer </a>where the Australian economy was summed up with just the one sentence: “The greatest fear is the unknown”. If you cast your mind back to the GFC businesses’ engagement all but came to a standstill given consumers were distracted looking for answers and signs. What we are seeing today are economic machinations busily at work in stark contrast to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/economy/home-prices-are-rising-and-so-is-unemployment-that-s-a-first/2014021867838">what we have seen before</a>.
I have no idea how mainstream media missed an announcement this week that <a target="_blank" href="https://article.wn.com/view/2014/02/25/Kuringgai_Council_to_discuss_the_future_of_Gordon_Golf_Cours/" title="Ku – ring – gai Council resolves to investigate the future of the Gordon Golf Club site ">Ku–ring–gai Council resolves to investigate the future of the Gordon Golf Club site </a>for the purpose of looking at possible future uses. Now this is a big story which in all probability will lead to plenty more councils reviewing their assets with a view to selling out to cashed–up property developers. Ku–ring–gai Council made the announcement last Tuesday that they are looking at a new sporting facility, including options for the first indoor sports centre in Ku–ring–gai (they sort of hid this as second point), a range of residential housing, small neighbourhood shops, local park and other community facilities. The council have another public golf course and rest assured that too will end up on the planning board as councils across the country look to cashing in on community assets.
I hate to say I told you so, however back on April 9, 2010 I wrote: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/2010/04/09/record-population-growth-and-possibly-an-even-scarier-outcome/" title="Record population growth – and (possibly) an even scarier outcome.">Record population growth – and (possibly) an even scarier outcome.</a> “So what can we expect? The greatest sell–off of (open space) land for residential development and Mosman (given its abundance of foreshore land) would become a major revenue raiser for funding sustainability. The ‘posh’ will utter, gosh! A strong possibility that Mosman sea scapes could resemble those from Whale Beach to Palm Beach. Of course governments will say ‘it is all in the name of economic progress’. Simply put – we may believe we are the custodians of open space and even though we don’t have title to this lifestyle privilege, money talks and many areas that are untouched could lose their virginity.”
“We now find that one in four NSW councils is on the brink of being unable to pay for essential services. We are already hearing murmurs that some councils are looking at selling off public golf courses and replacing them with housing estates.”
So there you have it – watch this proposal very carefully as it in all probability will open Pandora’s Box.
<img alt="simeon-march-3-one" height="385" width="470" src="/images/stories/2014/03/03/simeon-march-3-one.gif">
<img alt="simeon-march-3-two" height="409" width="470" src="/images/stories/2014/03/03/simeon-march-3-two.gif">
It is succinct and very clear why the Australian economy is experiencing behavioural problems when one closely examines these graphs. So based on this data one should not expect any rebounds anytime soon.
Robert Simeon is a director of <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" title="RWM" style="font-size: 14px;">Richardson  Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay </a>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. 
He has also been writing real estate blog <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" title="Virtual Realty News">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. 
The RWM real estate model has sold in excess of $1 billion in database sales globally.
                                       
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The start of the public land sell-off?

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The reasons being offered at present as to why consumption and confidence are down make for compelling reading, given there are so many theories being offered. I don’t believe blame should be cast at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) for holding the official cash rate too high for too long. Rather I believe the main reason why so many businesses are not doing well lies with their very own business strategies that thus far have failed and will continue to do so.
Over the last decade I have watched aghast at how so many businesses have continued to ignore the all-powerful online cataclysm, which explains why business confidence is down. Transitioning your business online is just the beginning, the most important move is aligning the business with consumer sentiment.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has recently released its first estimate of the amount Australian shoppers spend on overseas based retail websites. The ABS believes about $6.23 billion of goods worth less than the government’s low value threshold were imported in the 2011/12 financial year. I suspect the amount would have increased a further fifty per cent in the 2012/13 financial year. One would have to think with the upcoming federal budget that the Treasurer will be closely looking at grabbing this revenue.
Heeee’s back! <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/news/bursting-harry-dents-own-bubble/2014021467757?utm_source=po&amp;utm_medium=aida&amp;utm_campaign=latestnews" target="_blank">Harry Dent keeps predicting</a> that Australia’s property prices will be slashed by half – and by the way he has a book you might want to buy. I’ve lost count how many times he has predicted this and to a certain degree he is probably a little bit right as some of the overheated areas will face value calibrations.
I am of the belief that the only logical and feasible way you can predict a value correction is when supply exceeds demand. We are not seeing that anywhere (that I can see) given the market roar is that there is not enough properties on the market.
<a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/02/18-02-2014-2-56-49-PM.jpg"><img alt="18-02-2014 2-56-49 PM" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/02/18-02-2014-2-56-49-PM.jpg" width="470" height="258"></a>
Source: Digital Finance Analytics Blog
An interesting point I noted from <a href="https://www.digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/household-housing-finance-ratios/" target="_blank">the author of this graph</a> was “Some have argued recently that house prices have not really grown that much, if you take inflation into account: The important thing to keep in mind however is that when you consider inflation, dwelling values remain lower than their previous peaks in every city.”
<a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/02/11-02-2014-11-15-30-AM1.jpg"><img alt="11-02-2014 11-15-30 AM" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/02/11-02-2014-11-15-30-AM1.jpg" width="470" height="279"></a>
Source: Digital Finance Analytics Blog
Another contributing factor is that state and federal governments are behind approximately 300,000 houses in their new housing construction quota which again puts pressures on the housing markets. The simple fact that investors are hording real estate in their self-managed superannuation funds (SMSF) adds another dimension to the supply v demand debate.
Again as the federal budget gets closer we will see strong <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-why-negative-gearing-is-bad-policy-21882" target="_blank">arguments presented for the abolition of negative gearing</a>: “In Australia owner occupiers compete with investors for housing property; and there is also competition within these groups. A small increase in the number of superannuation funds and foreign investors purchasing property can have a significant impact on demand; while first home buyers are finding it increasingly difficult to enter the market. Each of these groups is impacted differently by the tax system.”
In 2010/11 the tax statistics revealed that 2.5 million property schedules were lodged by individuals, identifying nearly A$30 billion of rental income received during that year. The deductions claimed against this income amounted to A$37.8 billion, of which A$22 billion was interest on loans.
On that basis if the federal government were to look at abolishing negative gearing (and I don’t believe they will simply because of the gearing) property prices would crash and in turn the banks would too.
Again, Mosman houses are a long way off hitting triple figures given in 2013 it hit and bettered that number on 33 occasions. In 2012, it managed triple figures on just four occasions which were February 21 and 28, and March 7 and 13. So based on that data there is a very strong possibility that in 2014 we won’t see Mosman houses breaking the 100 mark.
It really is not that hard to analyse property trends when you break it down suburb by suburb. The only problem for so many real estate commentators is that such an exercise is all too time consuming.
Robert Simeon is a director of <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" title="RWM" style="font-size: 14px;">Richardson  Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay </a>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. 
He has also been writing real estate blog <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" title="Virtual Realty News">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. 
The RWM real estate model has sold in excess of $1 billion in database sales globally.
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Let's keep it simple - it’s supply v demand

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You can argue about housing affordability until the cows come home, however being right is an entirely different matter. Let’s face it, Sydney today is a basket case given the gridlocked traffic congestion which simply identifies that it can’t cope as our population surges. This was recently reinforced with the state government forced to declare that some major roads will now be 24 hour, seven days a week clearways.
With great interest I read this week a report that was released <a target="_blank" href="/news" title="Sydney’s ‘global’ vision bad news for local housing affordability ">Sydney’s ‘global’ vision is bad news for local housing affordability, </a>which identified in a recent government briefing paper that in the last decade medium rent for all properties in the inner ring of Sydney more than doubled from A$195 to A$560. Now that’s scary although realistic given the strategy, part of the “Global Sydney” vision from the NSW state government, is almost 10 years old. Updated government forecasts suggest Sydney’s population will grow to 5.8 million by 2031 – approximately 200,000 more people than predicted in 2010.
The report reveals that we can expect little policy movement on private housing subsidies by federal or state governments. Negative gearing has increased the wealth of middle and high income Australians. Developers endlessly lobby governments for taxation concessions. No major political party would dare propose reform.
With the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) deciding to leave the cash rate at 2.50% many were quick to declare that the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.afr.com/f/free/blogs/christopher_joye/rba_turns_blind_eye_to_housing_boom_JkFWke1jyGA4yV7vDY4HeJ" title="RBA turns blind eye to housing boom">RBA turns blind eye to housing boom</a>, although I must admit, the current state of the property market has everyone baffled and requiring deeper investigation.
The question that dominates the market is why are there so few listings if the market is this strong? Well that is now easier to address given<a target="_blank" href="https://www.whocrashedtheeconomy.com.au/blog/2014/02/roy-morgan-unemployment-hits-11-3-highest-in-19-years/" title=" Roy Morgan unemployment hits 11.3% - highest in 19 years."> Roy Morgan unemployment hits 11.3% – highest in 19 years.</a> I (like many others) use the Roy Morgan methodology over the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) given it’s absurd and totally unreasonable to consider somebody who works just one hour a week as being in full employment. It is also widely acknowledged that politicians much prefer the ABS figures given it makes them look better. Historically, property markets always contract when unemployment is rising as the two go hand in hand, although at the moment we are witnessing the complete opposite.
<a style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline-width: 0px; font-weight: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: #be002d; text-decoration: none;" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/02/10-02-2014-9-16-57-AM.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto; padding: 0px; outline-width: 0px; font-weight: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; display: block; max-width: 100%;" height="288" width="470" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/02/10-02-2014-9-16-57-AM.jpg" alt="10-02-2014 9-16-57 AM" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8418"></a>
So we were told this week that Australia’s 9.3 million homes have reached a new high<a target="_blank" href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/property/australian-homes-worth-5tn-20140211-32eyq" title=" Australian homes worth $5tn "> Australian homes worth $5 trillon </a>with the nation’s residences jumping a huge $184 billion in the last three months of 2013. What many find startling is that previously when unemployment is escalating property prices start dropping however this time around home values are rising and so is the unemployment rate.
<a style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline-width: 0px; font-weight: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: #be002d; text-decoration: none;" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/02/11-02-2014-11-12-24-AM.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto; padding: 0px; outline-width: 0px; font-weight: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; display: block; max-width: 100%;" height="286" width="470" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/02/11-02-2014-11-12-24-AM.jpg" alt="11-02-2014 11-12-24 AM" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8419"></a>
<a style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline-width: 0px; font-weight: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: #be002d; text-decoration: none;" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/02/11-02-2014-11-14-42-AM.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto; padding: 0px; outline-width: 0px; font-weight: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; display: block; max-width: 100%;" height="246" width="470" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/02/11-02-2014-11-14-42-AM.jpg" alt="11-02-2014 11-14-42 AM" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8421"></a>
The number of houses on the market changed little with just 81 houses on the market. The most startling statistic being there are just two houses for sale in Neutral Bay – previously the record low was four houses with an all-time high of 22.
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/2/12/economy/cold-truth-about-hot-property-prices" title="The cold truth about hot property prices">The cold truth about hot property prices</a> answers many questions given the Australian labour market hasn’t been this weak in over a decade. Investors are driving the values up as they have identified weak infrastructure and escalating rents given our population explosion.
Governments won’t address any of the issues as they are worried about losing voters so to coin an old Australian euphemism – “Bugger you Jack – I’m all right!”
Robert Simeon is a director of <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" title="RWM" style="font-size: 14px;">Richardson  Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay </a>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. 
He has also been writing real estate blog <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" title="Virtual Realty News">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. 
The RWM real estate model has sold in excess of $1 billion in database sales globally.
 
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Home prices are rising and so is unemployment - that's a first

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Just like many others I have been trying to make some sense of our property markets – so I went back to 1990 (yes I was selling way back then) to look at what the market was doing.
Why, you might ask?
Well, back then the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) had the cash rate at 17.50% (today, it's at 2.50%). Back then we were selling un-renovated mansions on Prince Albert Street for $1,050,000 (that was the top-end back then) with semi-detacheds on Dalton Road fetching $275,000. A nice home on Wolseley Road with Balmoral views would set you back $485,000 and an apartment on Mandolong Road sold for $125,000; and yes, all these homes were in <a target="_blank" href="/news">Mosman</a>.
Pause for a moment and your attention would be diverted to the prices of the real estate – with little attention to the highest ever cash rate in Australia’s history – 17.50%. A cash rate seven times higher than the cash rate today – and even more frightening, it was just before the “recession we had to have”. This saw the cash rate in January 1990 drop from 17.50% to 4.75% in July 1993.
My point being that with a cash rate of 2.50%, why are there not more sellers in the market engaging in their long-term real estate strategies? <a title="Sydney property listings reach post – GFC low: SQM Research" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/news/sydney-property-listings-reach-post-gfc-low-sqm-research/2014020567578" target="_blank">Sydney property listings reach post-GFC low, according to SQM Research</a> – January saw 20,080 listings in the city, a decrease of 3–4% from December. The previous low in listings for Sydney was recorded by SQM in January 2010, when 20,687 properties were listed. So the mystery is that the market in January 2014 is much stronger than back in January 2010 – so why are there fewer vendors?
The cash rate in January 2010 was 3.75% then in March it went to 4.00% to then peak in November 2010 at 4.75% with the RBA then easing the cash rate down in November 2011 to 4.50% to now where it sits at 2.50%.
Only when one actually extrapolates this data that the question is just how much attention the consumer pays to the cash rate – given it does not appear to be reflective in market sentiment. Based on that analysis it is clear that there is not a strong argument/interest for which direction the RBA will go when they next meet. Rather why are property owners ignoring the strongest selling conditions we have seen (in Sydney) since 2004?
Now there are a thousand upon thousand conspiracy theories – I prefer to call them myths, mysteries and market manipulations. The dominant buyer appears to be very high on the discussion index at the moment and that is the Chinese buyer. I looked at our deal book for 2013 and our sales to Chinese buyers made up less than 5% of our total transactions in that year. We don’t do any project marketing of new blocks of apartments, where in that demographic they make up over 80% of the transactions.
Maybe we should take a closer examination of the Significant Investor Visa (SIV) that was launched on November 24, 2012? 
From an article entitled "<a title="China’s Great Wall of visa money " href="https://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/2/5/china/chinas-great-wall-visa-money" target="_blank">China’s great wall of visa money </a>"– "new analysis from real estate advisory arm of Korda Mentha has revealed that the government’s significant investment visa scheme is booming, with the numbers of approved visas growing exponentially in the second half of 2013."
There has been a significant spike in the number of SIV approvals since the Coalition government came into power last September. There were only 15 approvals in the first eight months of 2013 under the Labor government. The number of approvals surged nearly 600% in the first two months of the new government. Is it a mystery or a myth that this is because the Abbott government does not have a Housing Minister and these statistics will go unchecked?
In 2013, the highest house sale was Altona – Wunulla Road Point Piper for $52 million. For the first time in years the only other property to sell outside the Eastern Suburbs for Sydney’s Top 20 sales in 2013 was Julian Street, Mosman which was sold by Richardson &amp; Wrench Mosman &amp; Neutral Bay (RWM) for $13.9 million. From the Sydney Top 20 sales in 2013 just four went to Chinese buyers – so don’t believe everything you read in the newspapers, or hear from real estate agents for that matter. I would call that market manipulation.
In 2014, we have seen three houses listed with 60 million plus price expectations in Sydney’s Eastern Suburbs with a common theme in the media that they are chasing the Chinese buyers.
Nobody knows with any great certainty what lies ahead for our property markets in 2014. Rest assured there will be plenty of myths, mysteries and market manipulations. We do know from anecdotal evidence that at the top-end they don’t pay any attention to the cash rate either. On the other end of the market spectrum the lower end of the markets are fixated by the cash rate for obvious financial reasons.
Nothing can still explain why what should be a feast market has ended up as a famine.
Robert Simeon is a director of <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" title="RWM" style="font-size: 14px;">Richardson  Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay </a>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. 
He has also been writing real estate blog <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" title="Virtual Realty News">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. 
The RWM real estate model has sold in excess of $1 billion in database sales globally.
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What should be a feast market has ended up as a famine

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Depending on who you are talking with about the global economies commentary is either optimistic or pessimistic – this appears to be the new world order. Personally I’m on the optimistic side although I’m well aware that consumer sentiment can change in a heartbeat. The Commonwealth Bank future business index, which gauges the sentiment of midsize businesses with a turnover of $10 million to $100 million found that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2014/1/23/australian-news/business-bullish-2014-survey" title="Bussiness bullish on 2014: Survey">business is bullish on 2014.</a> The index was 17 points in the December quarter, its highest level since the survey began in September 2011 and up from 10.8 points in the previous three months.
I don’t really care these days what weapon of choice one uses to determine what’s happening in global economies so long as we keep seeing positive consumer sentiment. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.whocrashedtheeconomy.com.au/blog/2014/01/2014-the-year-the-world-is-taken-off-life-support/" title="2014: The year that the world is taken off life support">The year that the world is taken off life support</a> is yet another interesting analogy and very hard to argue against. Despite the rejoicing the Australian economy has been dragging its feet for well over four years now so it was only a matter of time before the mode went much more up-tempo.
Gong Xi Fa Cai – The Year of the Horse is connected to travel and speedy success. It’s a good year for action, enterprise and achievement – as the horse has plenty of energy and charm. So it will be most interesting to see how dominant the Chinese buyers are in 2014.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/property/chinese-buyers-fuelling-sydney-property-hotspot-demand-20140129-31m1b" title="Chinese buyers fuelling Sydney property hotspot demand">Chinese buyers are fueling Sydney property hotspot demand</a> and Australian banks’ lending to Chinese borrowers has soared by 75% in a year, as the industry rushes to lift its exposure to Asia’s powerhouse economy. The value of loans to Chinese borrowers on the books of Australian banks swelled by US$12.3 billion to US$28.7 billion during the year to September, figures from the Bank for International Settlements show.
More than 20,500 people from China, Hong Kong and Taiwan settled in Australia in the year to June 30, according to immigration department figures. Another 219,000 came to Australia as temporary immigrants and students, the data show.
<img style="margin: 0px auto; padding: 0px; outline-width: 0px; font-weight: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; display: block; max-width: 100%;" height="271" width="470" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/01/30-01-2014-10-30-10-AM.jpg" alt="30-01-2014 10-30-10 AM" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8402">
<img style="margin: 0px auto; padding: 0px; outline-width: 0px; font-weight: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; display: block; max-width: 100%;" height="277" width="470" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/01/30-01-2014-10-31-26-AM.jpg" alt="30-01-2014 10-31-26 AM" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8404">
Source: Australian Property Monitors
The APM  House Price Report for the December Quarter 2013 highlights Sydney as the absolute star performer in the house and apartment sectors. The March quarter 2014 will confirm that the Sydney property market is taking off – although we need to look closely at what is happening in Mosman. <a target="_blank" href="/news">Last year I wrote</a> that “in 2012 out of 52 weeks there were on 33 occasions more than 100 houses on the market. In 2013, Mosman only broke the 100 mark on just four occasions which explained why we had fewer houses on the market."
We work on the philosophy that only 5% of house owners are totally satisfied with the home they currently reside in and s79% “acknowledge” that they would be happy to move to a better home however it’s not a major concern or priority. The lesser the number of homes on the market resonates back through their consumer sentiment. It has become instinctively clear that this housing desire was lost in the global financial crisis (GFC) as households re-calibrated their lifestyles and requirements.
Again this is seen with the number of houses on the market this week which was quite disappointing – from last week’s 47 this week it moved to 68. This time last year the number was 79 and the year before that it was a staggering 129.
All the signs are there for an action packed 2014 property market (well in Sydney anyway).
Naturally, there will also be many conversations about that mysterious property bubble too. As we have said on countless occasions ‘yes – there will be areas that crash and burn, that’s the nature of the industry’.
Although this time around there are many more buyers than sellers which is a pretty good clue – better known as a vendors market.
Robert Simeon is a director of <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" title="RWM" style="font-size: 14px;">Richardson  Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay </a>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. 
He has also been writing real estate blog <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" title="Virtual Realty News">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. 
The RWM real estate model has sold in excess of $1 billion in database sales globally.
 
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All signs are there for an action packed 2014 (at least in Sydney)

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You can be assured that as we enter a new year we are inundated with real estate predictions. 2014 will be no different so let’s try and make it easier and more understandable for you. Since September 2000, we have been writing our weekly post, Virtual Realty News, which provides an in-depth assessment of what the markets are doing. Despite the banter and hoo-ha that Sydney markets are set to boom in 2014, the most consistent statistic that we have observed over the last six years is that property sales numbers are in a rapid decline.
Here is what we consider the vital property performance indicators:
1. Cash rate
At the beginning of 2013 Macquarie Bank predicted that the cash rate in 2013 would drop to 2.00% whilst most thought it would go up. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cash rate today sits at 2.50% and this is where we expect it to sit for 2014 – we expect to see it start rising again in 2015.
2. Australian dollar
At the time of writing this report it was sitting at 0.87 AU$/US$ which is the weakest point since July 2010. Last week the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that the unemployment rate remained at 5.8% in December. The world’s biggest money manager BlackRock sees Australia’s dollar falling 10% as a result of disappointing economic growth reporting in 2014 which would then see the RBA cut its cash rate to 2.00%. There would be a number of expats hoping this to be the case as they have been sitting waiting for the Australian dollar to start declining.
3. Inflation
Overall the inflation rate has been well controlled by the RBA over the past few years with the RBA settings from 2.00% to 3.00%. In the 12 months to December, prices rose 2.7%, compared to 2.4% in November. This economic data is confirming that Australia’s record – low 2.5% cash rate is stimulating consumer spending. Across Australia spending has now risen over the past 16 consecutive months.
4. Supply/demand
This is the data I rely on the most as Sydney is comprised of 637 suburbs and growing and reporting generally throws all the suburbs into the one analysis. In 2012 Mosman houses recorded on 23 occasions more than 100 houses on the market over the one particular week – in 2013 it only managed to break 100 on four occasions so we are witnessing significant reductions in stock levels. In 2012 the greatest number of houses on the market in one week was 168, in 2013 it peaked at 144. To see on how many occasions the number of houses on the market breaks 100 will be fascinating given the markets are off to their weakest start ever in terms of volume.
<img height="237" width="470" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/01/15-01-2014-1-18-21-PM.jpg" alt="15-01-2014 1-18-21 PM"><img height="296" width="470" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2014/01/14-01-2014-2-56-15-PM.jpg" alt="14-01-2014 2-56-15 PM">
In 2013 the highest house sale was Altona – Wunulla Road, Point Piper for $52 million. For the first time in years the only property to sell outside the eastern suburbs of Sydney top 20 sales was Julian Street, Mosman which was sold by Richardson &amp; Wrench Mosman &amp; Neutral Bay (RWM) for $13.9 million. From the Sydney top 20 sales in 2013 just four went to Chinese buyers so don’t believe everything you read in the newspapers.
We don’t see any great changes in 2014 to the 2013 real estate markets given that they are now more than ever before consumer sensitive. Like everything markets are controlled by supply v demand mechanisms and if anything we believe again we will see fewer properties on the market in 2014.
Just before Australia Day last year there were 61 houses on the market, the year before 83 and this week just 47. Mosman apartments have 40 on the market this week, last year 68 and the year before 129. It’s quite extraordinary that the combined number of houses and apartments on the market in Mosman is just 87 – which clearly identifies a vendors market.
It’s going to be very interesting to see what happens to the stock volumes this week as the markets historically move into what we call the peak selling period.
Robert Simeon is a director of <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" title="RWM" style="font-size: 14px;">Richardson  Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay </a>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. 
He has also been writing real estate blog <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" title="Virtual Realty News">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. 
The RWM real estate model has sold in excess of $1 billion in database sales globally.
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The four key property performance indicators for 2014

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Last week’s announcement by Holden to shut down operations in Australia in 2017, although I suspect they will move on well before this date, should not come as a great surprise. Back in the 1960’s the manufacturing industry in Australia employed 26% of the workforce and today it sits at just 8% and getting smaller. Ford and Mitsubishi have already announced previously that they too would be leaving our shore which now leaves Toyota as the sole motor vehicle manufacturer in Australia. Over the years I have read many speeches where a common theme is that by 2020 Australia will cease to have a manufacturing industry.
When I look at the 2012 Australian Securities and Investment Commission’s Annual Report the number of businesses registered reached 1.9 million, which happens to be a new Australian record, but the number of businesses entering external administration is also at the highest level since the Global Financial Crisis. The federal government was never expected to provide financial assistance for these ailing companies so why annually prop up the ailing motor vehicle industry? It no longer makes sense – it’s time to move on. Hence: <a title="The failing auto industry gets a final reality check." href="https://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/12/11/automotive/failing-auto-industry-gets-final-reality-check" target="_blank">The failing auto industry gets a final reality check.</a>
Putting all the politics aside history shows with Australian motor vehicle closures: 1992 – Nissan – Keating, 2008 – Mitsubishi – Rudd, 2013 – Ford – Gillard and 2013 – Holden – Abbott.
<a title="Labour pains add to the RBA’s challenges" href="https://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/12/12/economy/labour-pains-add-rbas-challenges" target="_blank">Labour pains add to the RBA’s challenges</a> with the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) announcing yesterday that the unemployment rate rose to 5.8% in November, from 5.7% in October. The man with the toughest assignment is none other than Glenn Stevens our head teller at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) who warned <a title="Stevens warns against hubris " href="https://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303330204579245372909974900" target="_blank">against hubris; </a>“We are building up this myth of 22 years uninterrupted growth. We shouldn’t do that – sooner or later we’ll have another downturn.”
What remains to be seen is exactly what lessons have been learnt from the GFC.
As 2013 comes to a close it’s always interesting to look back in reflection and let’s look at interest rates which I might add Macquarie Bank called it nearly right saying they would get to 2.00% at the beginning of the year. I predicted they would actually go up so I was completely wrong although Macquarie Bank did predict 2.00% so they were half right. In 2014, at some stage I predict the cash rate will fall to 2.00% as the RBA tries to get its monetary policy back firmly on the front foot.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8372" alt="4-12-2013 12-58-17 PM" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2013/12/4-12-2013-12-58-17-PM.jpg" width="470" height="345" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline-width: 0px; font-weight: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; max-width: 100%;">
At RWM our December quarter turned out to be an all-time record which has us clearly of the opinion that the local real estate market will kick-off very strongly in February 2014. Again, the market is easily measured by the number of properties on the market which for the better part of 2013 saw record low numbers of properties on the market.
Interesting observation in 2013 was that we really started to see the Chinese buyers making serious inroads into the Mosman markets especially in the house sector. <a title="Chinese buyers tower over Australian real estate" href="https://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/12/6/china/chinese-buyers-tower-over-australian-real-estate" target="_blank">Chinese buyers tower over Australian real estate</a> – Where China spends its vast US$3.7 trillion foreign reserves is going to dominate asset prices and developments around the world. Right now apartments in Sydney and Melbourne are in favour with the Chinese.
The number of houses keeps diminishing with just 88 houses for sale in Mosman, Cremorne and Neutral Bay which in itself would be another record.
Wishing you a Merry Christmas and a safe and prosperous New Year.
 
<hr>
Robert Simeon is a director of <a style="font-size: 14px;" title="RWM" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Richardson  Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay </a>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. 
He has also been writing real estate blog <a title="Virtual Realty News" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. 
The RWM real estate model has sold in excess of $1 billion in database sales globally.
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The Sydney market will kick-off very strongly in early 2014

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“It is potentially the biggest economic and social challenge we face. Yet, it hardly registers in the popular debates. Within the lifetime of the typical Australian the number of people living here is expected to jump 60% from 23.3 million today to 37.6 million by 2050.” <a target="_blank" href="https://www.afr.com/p/national/why_australia_needs_to_get_real_7hEC3IX0RZWitSkELPcJEI" title="Why Australia needs to get real on population growth">Why Australia needs to get real on population growth</a> by Christopher Joye in the Australian Financial Review shows exactly why the modern day politicians are more concerned about re-election over strategic policy making.
Just this week we saw <a target="_blank" href="https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/sydneys-weekend-traffic-not-only-rivals-weekday-peak-hour-but-also-lasts-through-most-of-the-day/story-fni0cx12-1226766853634" title="Sydney’s weekend traffic not only rivals weekday peak hour but also lasts through most of the day ">Sydney’s weekend traffic not only rivals weekday peak hour but also lasts through most of the day </a>where traffic at 11am on a weekend is now the same as at 5pm on a weekday, where there are close to 500,000 travelers on Sydney roads, according to the state government’s Household Travel Survey 2011–12. The problem is now that bad that the state government is now introducing permanent weekend clearways which will definitely enrage local businesses that rely on this parking for passing trade. As they roll out more and more permanent weekend clearways local councils will be forced to provide more community parking facilities – but where?
The only intelligent alternative that I can see is under existing playing fields – for example a super car park built under Alan Border Oval would be a perfect example. Councils could then charge for all day parking which would see less cars going to the city with direct bus and ferry transport packages sold to those using the car park.
Even if many see such a proposal to be farfetched, we approximately know what the population will be in 2050 but have absolutely no idea what needs to be done to meet this surge in population.
It is just as interesting to note that car ownership is up 24% over the past decade to 2.6 million vehicles whilst the city’s population has grown by 12% to 4.5 million people. There are now 1.54 vehicles for every Sydney household. About 42% of households own two or more cars.
Today, we see the state government investing robustly in future road projects like WestConnex and the M2 to M1 link, however there needs to be much more. The only problem as to why there is not more is simply due to governments having insufficient funds, which paints a very sad long term view of where we will be in 37 years’ time.
<img src="/images/stories/2013/12/09/abs-dec-9-two.gif" width="470" height="292" alt="abs-dec-9-two">
<img src="/images/stories/2013/12/09/abs-dec-9-one.gif" width="470" height="174" alt="abs-dec-9-one">
Source: ABS
Interestingly HIA chief economist, Harley Dale, commented that these updated projections represent a “massive shift” and “it is now clear that the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has been materially underestimating real population growth rates for some time.”
Christopher Joye for years has criticised ABS projections for being too conservative. In a speech to the Housing Industry Association in July he posited that the nation faced a “population planning crisis” that could precede an equally serious housing and infrastructure catastrophe.
CommSec’s Craig James said: “Who would have thought 10 years ago that we would be building more apartments than free-standing homes today.
“At the end of the day somebody has to take a stand and drive this agenda.”
I would have thought a Housing Minister would be a great start and Malcolm Turnbull would be the ideal candidate. Makes one find it hard to comprehend the reasons why, Prime Minister Tony Abbott does not see a need for a Housing Minister in his government.
We observed this week a rapid decline in the number of houses on the market as vendors conclude negotiations for 2013. Surprisingly our peak selling season this year (spring/summer) failed to break the 100 mark although on November 21 it did reach 99.
I was scanning through Twitter (at home) this week and I came across an interesting conversation about property auction statistics <a target="_blank" href="https://www.afr.com/p/business/property/auctions_missing_sydney_impossible_o3CDeT026j6UhTA4ZvgJ5N" title="1438 auctions missing: Sydney’s Impossible Property Search">1,438 auctions missing: Sydney’s Impossible Property Search</a>. “Looking back at the data for Sydney from APM, only 510 (483 auctions + 27 withdrawn) actually got reported. So an incredible 392 (902 – 510) auctions went missing. Of those 510 auctions that did get reported, there were 410 that sold, giving a reported auction clearance rate of 80.4% (410/510).”
“Using APM’s data: my transparent calculations show the real clearance rate was a decidedly chilly 45.5% (410/902); the lowest clearance rate since 13 April 2013.
“Once again there is a huge difference between the reported rate and the real rate. This week it was 34.9 percentage points; the biggest difference since I started collating the data in March 2013.”
This has been going on for years and these figures have been fudged by agents to prop-up clearance rates, and APM is after all owned by Fairfax Media whose very own print media revenues are struggling.

<hr>
Robert Simeon is a director of <a style="font-size: 14px;" title="RWM" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Richardson  Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay </a>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. 
He has also been writing real estate blog <a title="Virtual Realty News" href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. 
The RWM real estate model has sold in excess of $1 billion in database sales globally.
 
 
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Our politicians are ignoring the realities of population growth

Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

Robert Simeon

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